Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
Week 9 (Through Games of 10/24/15)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
24.92 |
2 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
23.7 |
3 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
6 - 1 |
3 - 1 |
22.84 |
4 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
7 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
21.19 |
5 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
8 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
19.59 |
6 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
6 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
19.36 |
7 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
6 - 1 |
5 - 0 |
18.88 |
8 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
4 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
17.72 |
9 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
5 - 2 |
2 - 1 |
16.91 |
10 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
16.58 |
11 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
16.32 |
12 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
15.73 |
13 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
6 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
13.88 |
14 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
7 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
13.54 |
15 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
6 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
13.1 |
16 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
6 - 1 |
3 - 1 |
13.07 |
17 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
6 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
13.03 |
18 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
8 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
12.82 |
19 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
6 - 1 |
3 - 0 |
12.8 |
20 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
12.71 |
21 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
3 - 3 |
0 - 3 |
12.5 |
22 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
11.42 |
23 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
11.11 |
24 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
10.94 |
25 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
5 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
10.69 |
26 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
3 - 5 |
1 - 4 |
10.39 |
27 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
7 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
10.23 |
28 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
5 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
10.08 |
29 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
5 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
10 |
30 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
9.15 |
31 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
6 - 1 |
3 - 0 |
9.13 |
32 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
6 - 1 |
3 - 0 |
8.9 |
33 |
BYU |
IND |
6 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
8.12 |
34 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
4 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
8.06 |
35 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
3 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
7.75 |
36 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
3 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
7.74 |
37 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
6 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
7.59 |
38 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
6 - 1 |
4 - 0 |
7.26 |
39 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
4 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
7.14 |
40 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
6.86 |
41 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
3 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
6.68 |
42 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
3 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
6.57 |
43 |
California |
PAC12-N |
5 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
6.31 |
44 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
5 - 3 |
2 - 3 |
6.16 |
45 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
5 - 1 |
3 - 0 |
5.96 |
46 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
3 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
5.55 |
47 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
3 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
4.55 |
48 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
4 - 3 |
1 - 3 |
4.44 |
49 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
7 - 0 |
4 - 0 |
4.14 |
50 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
4.02 |
51 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
6 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
3.7 |
52 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
5 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
3.37 |
53 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
3 - 4 |
0 - 4 |
3.31 |
54 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
5 - 2 |
1 - 2 |
2.85 |
55 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
4 - 3 |
1 - 2 |
2.68 |
56 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
5 - 3 |
2 - 3 |
2.25 |
57 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
4 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
2.13 |
58 |
W Kentucky |
CUSA-E |
6 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
1.98 |
59 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
3 - 5 |
0 - 5 |
1.78 |
60 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
1.7 |
61 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
4 - 4 |
1 - 4 |
1.49 |
62 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
5 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
1.29 |
63 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
4 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
0.65 |
64 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 4 |
0.53 |
65 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
4 - 3 |
1 - 2 |
0.44 |
66 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
4 - 3 |
1 - 2 |
0.26 |
67 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
5 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
0.11 |
68 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
4 - 4 |
3 - 1 |
0.05 |
69 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
4 - 3 |
2 - 3 |
-1.15 |
70 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
5 - 3 |
4 - 0 |
-1.42 |
71 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
4 - 3 |
3 - 0 |
-1.48 |
72 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-1.56 |
73 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
2 - 5 |
0 - 3 |
-1.73 |
74 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
2 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
-1.91 |
75 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
2 - 5 |
1 - 2 |
-2.02 |
76 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
-2.09 |
77 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
5 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
-2.76 |
78 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
7 - 1 |
4 - 0 |
-3.1 |
79 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
4 - 4 |
0 - 4 |
-3.31 |
80 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
4 - 3 |
1 - 2 |
-3.71 |
81 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
-4.27 |
82 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
4 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
-5.82 |
83 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
3 - 4 |
0 - 3 |
-5.94 |
84 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
5 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
-6.94 |
85 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
3 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
-7.17 |
86 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-7.35 |
87 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
4 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
-7.38 |
88 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
3 - 5 |
1 - 4 |
-7.61 |
89 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-7.91 |
90 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
4 - 3 |
3 - 0 |
-7.92 |
91 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
2 - 5 |
0 - 4 |
-8.45 |
92 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
1 - 6 |
0 - 3 |
-8.9 |
93 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
3 - 5 |
2 - 2 |
-8.91 |
94 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-10.53 |
95 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-10.65 |
96 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
2 - 6 |
1 - 3 |
-10.76 |
97 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
1 - 6 |
0 - 3 |
-10.89 |
98 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
5 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
-11.34 |
99 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-11.91 |
100 |
Massachusetts |
MAC-E |
1 - 6 |
0 - 3 |
-12.7 |
101 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
4 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-13.14 |
102 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
4 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
-13.38 |
103 |
Troy |
SUN |
2 - 5 |
1 - 2 |
-13.53 |
104 |
ULL |
SUN |
2 - 4 |
1 - 1 |
-13.63 |
105 |
Army |
IND |
2 - 6 |
1 - 1 |
-13.77 |
106 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
0 - 8 |
0 - 4 |
-14.01 |
107 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
1 - 6 |
1 - 2 |
-14.56 |
108 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
2 - 5 |
1 - 2 |
-14.91 |
109 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
1 - 7 |
1 - 3 |
-15.46 |
110 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
0 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-15.82 |
111 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
2 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
-16.04 |
112 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
3 - 5 |
2 - 2 |
-16.93 |
113 |
Idaho |
SUN |
3 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-17.73 |
114 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
2 - 6 |
0 - 4 |
-17.8 |
115 |
Texas St |
SUN |
2 - 4 |
1 - 1 |
-18.16 |
116 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
2 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-18.98 |
117 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-19.13 |
118 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-19.55 |
119 |
ULM |
SUN |
1 - 6 |
0 - 3 |
-19.67 |
120 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
2 - 4 |
1 - 1 |
-19.83 |
121 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
1 - 6 |
1 - 3 |
-20.44 |
122 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
0 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-21.85 |
123 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
1 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-22.5 |
124 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
1 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-24.29 |
125 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-24.46 |
126 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
3 - 4 |
1 - 2 |
-25.05 |
127 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
0 - 7 |
0 - 3 |
-30.9 |
128 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
2 - 5 |
0 - 4 |
-32.18 |