Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2018 Week 15
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
13 - 0 |
9 - 0 |
36.22 |
2 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
13 - 0 |
9 - 0 |
29.21 |
3 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
26.06 |
4 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
20.96 |
5 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
20.53 |
6 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
10 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
18.61 |
7 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
12 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
17.51 |
8 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
12 - 1 |
9 - 1 |
16.76 |
9 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
12 - 1 |
9 - 1 |
16.6 |
10 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
15.78 |
11 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
15.67 |
12 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
12 - 0 |
9 - 0 |
15 |
13 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
8 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
14.87 |
14 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
14.8 |
15 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
14.03 |
16 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
7 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
13.22 |
17 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
8 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
12.98 |
18 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
9 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
12.8 |
19 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
11 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
12.05 |
20 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
11.54 |
21 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
10 - 3 |
8 - 2 |
11.19 |
22 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
10.9 |
23 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
10.73 |
24 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
9 - 4 |
6 - 4 |
10.41 |
25 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
10 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
9.93 |
26 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
10 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
9.37 |
27 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
9.06 |
28 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
9 - 4 |
7 - 3 |
8.99 |
29 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
8.73 |
30 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
8.14 |
31 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
8.04 |
32 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
6 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
7.3 |
33 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
7.26 |
34 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
8 - 4 |
7 - 1 |
6.73 |
35 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
6.62 |
36 |
Army |
IND |
10 - 2 |
3 - 0 |
6.38 |
37 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
6.23 |
38 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
10 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
6.06 |
39 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
8 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
4.89 |
40 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
4.56 |
41 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
4.54 |
42 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
8 - 5 |
8 - 2 |
4.53 |
43 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
4.52 |
44 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
7 - 6 |
6 - 3 |
4.43 |
45 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
3.56 |
46 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
3.45 |
47 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
3.4 |
48 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
8 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
2.95 |
49 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
2.65 |
50 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
2.59 |
51 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
2.22 |
52 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
2.21 |
53 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
5 - 7 |
1 - 7 |
1.95 |
54 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
1.81 |
55 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
8 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
1.7 |
56 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
1.58 |
57 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
1.1 |
58 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
0.74 |
59 |
BYU |
IND |
6 - 6 |
3 - 0 |
0.68 |
60 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
10 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
0.58 |
61 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
0.42 |
62 |
California |
PAC12-N |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
0.39 |
63 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
5 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
0.33 |
64 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
0.07 |
65 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
10 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
-0.11 |
66 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
-0.34 |
67 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
6 - 6 |
6 - 2 |
-0.78 |
68 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-1.14 |
69 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-1.3 |
70 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
-1.57 |
71 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
5 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
-2.09 |
72 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
-2.13 |
73 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
-2.22 |
74 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
8 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
-2.28 |
75 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
3 - 9 |
3 - 6 |
-2.39 |
76 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
-2.48 |
77 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-2.64 |
78 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-2.83 |
79 |
Troy |
SUN |
9 - 3 |
7 - 1 |
-3 |
80 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-3.07 |
81 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-3.23 |
82 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-4.04 |
83 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-4.1 |
84 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-4.17 |
85 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-4.39 |
86 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
3 - 9 |
1 - 8 |
-4.54 |
87 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
-4.94 |
88 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-5 |
89 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-5.14 |
90 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
-5.61 |
91 |
Louisiana |
SUN |
7 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
-6.28 |
92 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
6 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-6.78 |
93 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
6 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-7 |
94 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
2 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-7.02 |
95 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-7.39 |
96 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
3 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-8.14 |
97 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-9.47 |
98 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-9.48 |
99 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
7 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
-10.19 |
100 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-10.37 |
101 |
ULM |
SUN |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-10.49 |
102 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-10.58 |
103 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-12.05 |
104 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
1 - 11 |
0 - 9 |
-12.31 |
105 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-13.12 |
106 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-13.43 |
107 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
1 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-14.16 |
108 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-14.49 |
109 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-14.78 |
110 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-15.55 |
111 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
2 - 10 |
1 - 8 |
-16.07 |
112 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-16.35 |
113 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-16.36 |
114 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-16.6 |
115 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
4 - 8 |
2 - 1 |
-16.7 |
116 |
Liberty |
IND |
6 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-17.57 |
117 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-17.64 |
118 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-17.65 |
119 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-17.91 |
120 |
Texas St |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-18.05 |
121 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-18.23 |
122 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-18.8 |
123 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-18.87 |
124 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-20.63 |
125 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-21.63 |
126 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-22.77 |
127 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
2 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-23.04 |
128 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
1 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-23.67 |
129 |
New Mexico St |
IND |
3 - 9 |
2 - 2 |
-23.75 |
130 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-28.74 |