Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2018 Week 12 (through games of 11/10/2018)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
10 - 0 |
7 - 0 |
36.04 |
2 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
10 - 0 |
7 - 0 |
28.72 |
3 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
9 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
26.31 |
4 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
9 - 1 |
7 - 0 |
24.43 |
5 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
8 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
19.45 |
6 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
9 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
18.53 |
7 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
17.95 |
8 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
6 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
16.32 |
9 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
6 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
16.3 |
10 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
10 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15.13 |
11 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
9 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
14.92 |
12 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
7 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
14.03 |
13 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
9 - 1 |
6 - 0 |
13.86 |
14 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
13.03 |
15 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
12.91 |
16 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
8 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
12.84 |
17 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
12.73 |
18 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
6 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
12.45 |
19 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
7 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
12.07 |
20 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
6 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
11.52 |
21 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
6 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
11.39 |
22 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
5 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
10.74 |
23 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
7 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
10.53 |
24 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
10.51 |
25 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
9 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
9.96 |
26 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
5 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
9.47 |
27 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
9 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
9.21 |
28 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
9.07 |
29 |
Army |
IND |
8 - 2 |
2 - 0 |
9.05 |
30 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
5 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
8.85 |
31 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
8.37 |
32 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
8.11 |
33 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
8 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
7.82 |
34 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
5 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
7.63 |
35 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
6 - 4 |
5 - 1 |
7.48 |
36 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
6 - 4 |
6 - 1 |
7.25 |
37 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
4 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
7.14 |
38 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
6.28 |
39 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
6 - 4 |
5 - 1 |
6.15 |
40 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
5.92 |
41 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
5.48 |
42 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
6 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
5.22 |
43 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
4.95 |
44 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
9 - 1 |
6 - 0 |
4.44 |
45 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
7 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
4.39 |
46 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
4.25 |
47 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
4.06 |
48 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
9 - 1 |
7 - 0 |
4.05 |
49 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
4.04 |
50 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
5 - 5 |
1 - 5 |
3.88 |
51 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
7 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
3.74 |
52 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
2.83 |
53 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
5 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
2.58 |
54 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
5 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
2.21 |
55 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
6 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
1.58 |
56 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
3 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
1.47 |
57 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
0.65 |
58 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
6 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
0.57 |
59 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
0.51 |
60 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
4 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
0.36 |
61 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
0.23 |
62 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
0.06 |
63 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-0.32 |
64 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
7 - 3 |
6 - 0 |
-0.36 |
65 |
BYU |
IND |
5 - 5 |
2 - 0 |
-0.5 |
66 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-0.57 |
67 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
-0.66 |
68 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
4 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
-0.74 |
69 |
California |
PAC12-N |
6 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
-0.74 |
70 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
7 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
-0.99 |
71 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
7 - 3 |
6 - 1 |
-1.02 |
72 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
-1.4 |
73 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
5 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-1.42 |
74 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
2 - 8 |
0 - 6 |
-1.61 |
75 |
Troy |
SUN |
8 - 2 |
6 - 0 |
-1.66 |
76 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
4 - 6 |
4 - 2 |
-2.05 |
77 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
-2.35 |
78 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
5 - 5 |
4 - 2 |
-2.77 |
79 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-3.17 |
80 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-3.24 |
81 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
-3.67 |
82 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
-4.19 |
83 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
2 - 8 |
2 - 5 |
-4.37 |
84 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
5 - 5 |
4 - 2 |
-4.41 |
85 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
-4.7 |
86 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
3 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-5.18 |
87 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
5 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-5.19 |
88 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
4 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
-5.37 |
89 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
-5.43 |
90 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
6 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
-5.45 |
91 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-5.76 |
92 |
ULL |
SUN |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-6.3 |
93 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-6.72 |
94 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
-7.48 |
95 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
1 - 8 |
1 - 6 |
-7.69 |
96 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-8.39 |
97 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
7 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
-9.72 |
98 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-10.35 |
99 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
4 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
-10.6 |
100 |
ULM |
SUN |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-10.69 |
101 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-11.15 |
102 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
6 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-11.49 |
103 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
4 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-11.68 |
104 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-11.71 |
105 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-12 |
106 |
Liberty |
IND |
4 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
-13.16 |
107 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-13.25 |
108 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
2 - 7 |
0 - 6 |
-13.59 |
109 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
1 - 9 |
0 - 7 |
-14.01 |
110 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
5 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-14.61 |
111 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
2 - 8 |
1 - 6 |
-15.4 |
112 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
3 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-15.52 |
113 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
3 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-16.21 |
114 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
2 - 8 |
0 - 7 |
-16.27 |
115 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
1 - 9 |
1 - 5 |
-16.93 |
116 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
3 - 7 |
2 - 4 |
-17.15 |
117 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
4 - 7 |
2 - 1 |
-17.85 |
118 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-17.88 |
119 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
1 - 10 |
0 - 7 |
-18 |
120 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
3 - 7 |
2 - 4 |
-18.23 |
121 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
1 - 9 |
1 - 5 |
-19.01 |
122 |
Texas St |
SUN |
3 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-19.19 |
123 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-19.61 |
124 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
1 - 9 |
0 - 6 |
-19.84 |
125 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-20.89 |
126 |
New Mexico St |
IND |
3 - 7 |
2 - 0 |
-21.77 |
127 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
3 - 7 |
2 - 4 |
-24.36 |
128 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
1 - 9 |
0 - 6 |
-24.9 |
129 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-25.39 |
130 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
1 - 10 |
0 - 7 |
-26.53 |