Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Predictions

ARCHIVED PREVIOUS YEAR PREDICTIONS

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CURRENT WEEK PREDICTIONS

Playoff Projections:

Percent chance of making it to Semifinals:
(5)Texas: 49.7
(2)Georgia: 49.4
(6)Penn State: 47.9
(1)Oregon: 45.5
(8)Ohio State: 39.9
(7)Notre Dame: 39.1
(4)Arizona State: 32.9
(3)Boise State: 28.7
(11)Southern Methodist: 23.5
(12)Clemson: 17.3
(9)Tennessee: 14.6
(10)Indiana: 11.5

Percent chance of winning the title:
(2)Georgia: 18.5
(7)Notre Dame: 18.2
(8)Ohio State: 14.7
(5)Texas: 13.6
(1)Oregon: 12.4
(6)Penn State: 7.6
(9)Tennessee: 3.6
(11)Southern Methodist: 2.8
(10)Indiana: 2.7
(4)Arizona State: 2.5
(12)Clemson: 2.2
(3)Boise State: 1.2

WEEK 16

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Navy 14 - Army 21 5.8 0.645

WEEK 17

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 36 - Texas Tech 35 0 0.5
Army 21 - Marshall 17 3.5 0.599
Bowling Green 24 - Arkansas State 20 5.4 0.649
Coastal Carolina 32 - Texas San Antonio 31 1.4 0.528
Colorado 31 - Brigham Young 28 2.3 0.551
Colorado State 14 - Miami OH 17 2.2 0.554
Florida 31 - Tulane 27 4.3 0.594
Fresno State 18 - Northern Illinois 17 2.4 0.553
Illinois 24 - South Carolina 35 11.6 0.764
Indiana 31 - Notre Dame 35 4.3 0.596
Jacksonville State 21 - Ohio 24 3.4 0.568
James Madison 27 - Western Kentucky 20 8.4 0.672
Kansas State 31 - Rutgers 24 6.6 0.662
Liberty 27 - Buffalo 24 2.1 0.547
Louisiana State 38 - Baylor 31 5.8 0.64
Miami FL 35 - Iowa State 34 3.3 0.585
Michigan 21 - Alabama 31 9 0.688
Mississippi 35 - Duke 20 14.9 0.818
Missouri 23 - Iowa 24 0 0.502
Navy 20 - Oklahoma 27 8.9 0.69
NC State 34 - East Carolina 27 7.8 0.695
Nebraska 27 - Boston College 24 0.8 0.523
Nevada Las Vegas 25 - California 24 0.2 0.51
North Carolina 34 - Connecticut 27 7.5 0.684
Ohio State 31 - Tennessee 24 8.4 0.722
Penn State 35 - Southern Methodist 28 5.8 0.702
Sam Houston State 13 - Georgia Southern 17 5.9 0.666
San Jose State 28 - South Florida 27 0.9 0.525
South Alabama 31 - Western Michigan 20 12.6 0.799
Southern California 31 - Texas AM 34 2.1 0.552
Texas 34 - Clemson 24 9.6 0.745
Texas Christian 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 5.5 0.656
Texas State 35 - North Texas 27 8.7 0.697
Toledo 17 - Pittsburgh 27 8.8 0.721
Vanderbilt 27 - Georgia Tech 28 1.2 0.531
Virginia Tech 23 - Minnesota 24 0.5 0.52
Washington 27 - Louisville 34 8.6 0.712
Washington State 28 - Syracuse 34 5.3 0.627
West Virginia 28 - Memphis 34 4.4 0.613

WEEK 18

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 21 - Texas 34 10.4 0.739
Boise State 21 - Penn State 31 9.1 0.771
Georgia 31 - Notre Dame 35 2.8 0.568
Oregon 27 - Ohio State 31 3.6 0.606

WEEK 19

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Penn State 27 - Notre Dame 34 6.7 0.709
Texas 24 - Ohio State 27 1.5 0.534

WEEK 20

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Notre Dame 29 - Ohio State 28 1 0.526


Number of FBS Games: 47
Expected Number Correct: 29.558 = 62.8%

PAST 2024 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - FCS Team 10 28.1 Air Force 21 - FCS Team 6
Alabama 45 - Western Kentucky 17 29.4 0.979 Alabama 63 - Western Kentucky 0 -35
Alabama Birmingham 38 - FCS Team 17 19.8 Alabama Birmingham 41 - FCS Team 3
Appalachian State 45 - FCS Team 14 29.2 Appalachian State 38 - FCS Team 10
Arizona 41 - New Mexico 17 24.3 0.932 Arizona 61 - New Mexico 39 2
Arizona State 24 - Wyoming 17 6.5 0.668 Arizona State 48 - Wyoming 7 -34
Arkansas State 38 - FCS Team 20 18.4 Arkansas State 34 - FCS Team 31
Army 34 - FCS Team 13 21.1 Army 42 - FCS Team 7
Auburn 45 - FCS Team 10 33.9 Auburn 73 - FCS Team 3
Baylor 45 - FCS Team 14 28.4 Baylor 45 - FCS Team 3
Bowling Green 31 - FCS Team 17 14.1 Bowling Green 41 - FCS Team 17
Brigham Young 42 - FCS Team 14 26.9 Brigham Young 41 - FCS Team 13
Buffalo 31 - FCS Team 14 16.7 Buffalo 30 - FCS Team 13
California 42 - FCS Team 14 27.5 California 31 - FCS Team 13
Central Florida 45 - FCS Team 14 31.4 Central Florida 57 - FCS Team 3
Central Michigan 34 - FCS Team 17 16.3 Central Michigan 66 - FCS Team 10
Charlotte 14 - James Madison 31 15.8 0.781 Charlotte 7 - James Madison 30 6
Cincinnati 38 - FCS Team 13 26.4 Cincinnati 38 - FCS Team 20
Colorado 42 - FCS Team 20 22.5 Colorado 31 - FCS Team 26
Duke 41 - FCS Team 14 27.1 Duke 26 - FCS Team 3
East Carolina 34 - FCS Team 17 18.6 East Carolina 42 - FCS Team 3
FCS Team 17 - Arkansas 45 26.6 FCS Team 0 - Arkansas 70
Florida 35 - Miami FL 24 11.3 0.759 Florida 17 - Miami FL 41 35
Florida State 35 - Boston College 17 17.5 0.817 Florida State 13 - Boston College 28 33
Georgia 35 - Clemson 21 13.5 0.764 Georgia 34 - Clemson 3 -17
Georgia Southern 24 - Boise State 31 8.4 0.714 Georgia Southern 45 - Boise State 56 4
Georgia Tech 24 - Florida State 34 10.5 0.729 Georgia Tech 24 - Florida State 21 -13
Georgia Tech 31 - Georgia State 24 6.9 0.663 Georgia Tech 35 - Georgia State 12 -16
Hawaii 35 - FCS Team 20 16 Hawaii 35 - FCS Team 14
Hawaii 21 - UCLA 34 12.6 0.763 Hawaii 13 - UCLA 16 -10
Houston 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 7.5 0.701 Houston 7 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 27
Illinois 42 - FCS Team 14 28.8 Illinois 45 - FCS Team 0
Indiana 38 - Florida International 17 22.5 0.913 Indiana 31 - Florida International 7 -3
Iowa 35 - FCS Team 6 31.5 Iowa 40 - FCS Team 0
Iowa State 42 - FCS Team 10 33.5 Iowa State 21 - FCS Team 3
Jacksonville State 19 - Coastal Carolina 20 0.5 0.514 Jacksonville State 27 - Coastal Carolina 55 27
Kansas 49 - FCS Team 17 31 Kansas 48 - FCS Team 3
Kansas State 52 - FCS Team 10 40.8 Kansas State 41 - FCS Team 6
Kentucky 38 - Southern Miss 14 21.9 0.915 Kentucky 31 - Southern Miss 0 -7
Liberty 42 - FCS Team 14 27.7 Liberty 41 - FCS Team 24
Louisiana Lafayette 41 - FCS Team 14 25.9 Louisiana Lafayette 40 - FCS Team 10
Louisiana Monroe 34 - FCS Team 21 11.5 Louisiana Monroe 30 - FCS Team 14
Louisiana Tech 35 - FCS Team 21 13.4 Louisiana Tech 25 - FCS Team 17
Louisville 45 - FCS Team 10 34 Louisville 62 - FCS Team 0
Marshall 34 - FCS Team 13 20.7 Marshall 45 - FCS Team 3
Maryland 38 - Connecticut 13 24.5 0.929 Maryland 50 - Connecticut 7 -18
Massachusetts 21 - Eastern Michigan 28 6.5 0.687 Massachusetts 14 - Eastern Michigan 28 7
Memphis 48 - FCS Team 17 30.5 Memphis 40 - FCS Team 0
Michigan 41 - Fresno State 14 25.3 0.931 Michigan 30 - Fresno State 10 7
Michigan State 27 - Florida Atlantic 17 9.9 0.732 Michigan State 16 - Florida Atlantic 10 4
Middle Tennessee 35 - FCS Team 17 18 Middle Tennessee 32 - FCS Team 25
Minnesota 32 - North Carolina 31 1.3 0.534 Minnesota 17 - North Carolina 19 3
Miss State 42 - FCS Team 13 29.5 Miss State 56 - FCS Team 7
Mississippi 49 - FCS Team 13 38.7 Mississippi 76 - FCS Team 0
Missouri 48 - FCS Team 10 37.9 Missouri 51 - FCS Team 0
Navy 31 - FCS Team 13 18.8 Navy 49 - FCS Team 21
NC State 41 - FCS Team 10 29.8 NC State 38 - FCS Team 21
Nebraska 31 - Texas El Paso 10 18.6 0.901 Nebraska 40 - Texas El Paso 7 -12
Nevada 20 - Southern Methodist 35 15.6 0.807 Nevada 24 - Southern Methodist 29 -10
New Mexico 31 - FCS Team 21 11.2 New Mexico 31 - FCS Team 35
New Mexico St 31 - FCS Team 17 16.2 New Mexico St 23 - FCS Team 16
Northern Illinois 35 - FCS Team 17 17.3 Northern Illinois 54 - FCS Team 15
Northwestern 21 - Miami OH 10 9.2 0.745 Northwestern 13 - Miami OH 6 4
Ohio State 49 - Akron 0 48.2 0.992 Ohio State 52 - Akron 6 3
Oklahoma 49 - Temple 14 35.5 0.975 Oklahoma 51 - Temple 3 -13
Oklahoma State 48 - FCS Team 13 34.2 Oklahoma State 44 - FCS Team 20
Oregon 52 - FCS Team 10 44.2 Oregon 24 - FCS Team 14
Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 10 34.7 Oregon State 38 - FCS Team 15
Pittsburgh 34 - Kent State 17 16.9 0.844 Pittsburgh 55 - Kent State 24 -14
Purdue 45 - FCS Team 17 28.9 Purdue 49 - FCS Team 0
Rice 20 - Sam Houston State 13 7.2 0.681 Rice 14 - Sam Houston State 34 27
Rutgers 38 - FCS Team 14 23.1 Rutgers 44 - FCS Team 7
San Diego State 31 - FCS Team 10 19.6 San Diego State 45 - FCS Team 14
San Jose State 38 - FCS Team 14 24.8 San Jose State 42 - FCS Team 24
South Alabama 31 - North Texas 24 8.1 0.694 South Alabama 38 - North Texas 52 21
South Carolina 34 - Old Dominion 14 19 0.877 South Carolina 23 - Old Dominion 19 16
South Florida 41 - FCS Team 21 19.4 South Florida 48 - FCS Team 3
Southern California 38 - Louisiana State 48 8.3 0.703 Southern California 27 - Louisiana State 20 -17
Southern Methodist 48 - FCS Team 14 32.3 Southern Methodist 59 - FCS Team 7
Stanford 27 - Texas Christian 38 10.4 0.73 Stanford 27 - Texas Christian 34 -4
Syracuse 21 - Ohio 20 1.7 0.535 Syracuse 38 - Ohio 22 -15
Tennessee 52 - FCS Team 10 42.9 Tennessee 69 - FCS Team 3
Texas 42 - Colorado State 10 31 0.974 Texas 52 - Colorado State 0 -20
Texas AM 28 - Notre Dame 31 3 0.572 Texas AM 13 - Notre Dame 23 7
Texas San Antonio 21 - Kennesaw State 3 19.2 0.807 Texas San Antonio 28 - Kennesaw State 16 6
Texas State 38 - FCS Team 20 18.3 Texas State 34 - FCS Team 27
Texas Tech 45 - FCS Team 14 32.3 Texas Tech 52 - FCS Team 51
Toledo 38 - FCS Team 14 23.6 Toledo 49 - FCS Team 10
Troy 28 - Nevada 10 18.1 0.868 Troy 26 - Nevada 28 20
Tulane 41 - FCS Team 13 27.4 Tulane 52 - FCS Team 0
Tulsa 38 - FCS Team 20 18.4 Tulsa 62 - FCS Team 28
Utah 45 - FCS Team 7 36.3 Utah 49 - FCS Team 0
Utah State 38 - FCS Team 21 18.8 Utah State 36 - FCS Team 14
Vanderbilt 28 - Virginia Tech 31 3.8 0.584 Vanderbilt 34 - Virginia Tech 27 -10
Virginia 41 - FCS Team 17 24.3 Virginia 34 - FCS Team 13
Wake Forest 45 - FCS Team 17 28.3 Wake Forest 45 - FCS Team 13
Washington 49 - FCS Team 10 39.3 Washington 45 - FCS Team 3
Washington State 45 - FCS Team 14 30.5 Washington State 70 - FCS Team 30
West Virginia 24 - Penn State 34 10.2 0.741 West Virginia 12 - Penn State 34 12
Wisconsin 31 - Western Michigan 13 19.9 0.871 Wisconsin 28 - Western Michigan 14 4


Number of FBS Games: 39
Number Correct: 29 = 74.3%
Expected Number Correct: 30.326 = 77.7%
Average Error: 13.92
Average Signed Error: 0.17

WEEK 2

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - San Jose State 17 6.9 0.69 Air Force 7 - San Jose State 17 17
Alabama 56 - South Florida 17 39.1 0.981 Alabama 42 - South Florida 16 13
Arizona 48 - FCS Team 17 30.3 Arizona 22 - FCS Team 10
Arizona State 31 - Miss State 27 4.3 0.609 Arizona State 30 - Miss State 23 -3
Arkansas State 27 - Tulsa 28 0.4 0.513 Arkansas State 28 - Tulsa 24 -5
Auburn 31 - California 21 10 0.734 Auburn 14 - California 21 17
Ball State 34 - FCS Team 14 18.7 Ball State 42 - FCS Team 34
Boston College 38 - FCS Team 14 24.9 Boston College 56 - FCS Team 0
Central Florida 31 - Sam Houston State 10 21.1 0.834 Central Florida 45 - Sam Houston State 14 -10
Cincinnati 27 - Pittsburgh 24 4.1 0.634 Cincinnati 27 - Pittsburgh 28 4
Clemson 35 - Appalachian State 20 15.4 0.818 Clemson 66 - Appalachian State 20 -31
Coastal Carolina 42 - FCS Team 17 26.4 Coastal Carolina 40 - FCS Team 21
Colorado State 34 - FCS Team 17 15.4 Colorado State 38 - FCS Team 17
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 20 10.1 Connecticut 63 - FCS Team 17
Florida 48 - FCS Team 14 34.3 Florida 45 - FCS Team 7
Florida Atlantic 18 - Army 17 0.1 0.505 Florida Atlantic 7 - Army 24 18
Florida International 17 - Central Michigan 27 9 0.721 Florida International 52 - Central Michigan 16 -46
Fresno State 42 - FCS Team 13 29.5 Fresno State 46 - FCS Team 30
Georgia 56 - FCS Team 3 55.1 Georgia 48 - FCS Team 3
Georgia State 38 - FCS Team 17 21.3 Georgia State 24 - FCS Team 21
Illinois 34 - Kansas 31 3.1 0.577 Illinois 23 - Kansas 17 -3
Indiana 41 - FCS Team 14 26 Indiana 77 - FCS Team 3
Iowa 20 - Iowa State 17 3.2 0.576 Iowa 19 - Iowa State 20 4
James Madison 38 - FCS Team 10 26.6 James Madison 13 - FCS Team 6
Kennesaw State 10 - Louisiana Lafayette 20 8.4 0.734 Kennesaw State 10 - Louisiana Lafayette 34 14
Kent State 38 - FCS Team 24 14.6 Kent State 17 - FCS Team 23
Kentucky 28 - South Carolina 21 6.4 0.668 Kentucky 6 - South Carolina 31 32
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Alabama Birmingham 31 6.8 0.679 Louisiana Monroe 32 - Alabama Birmingham 6 -33
Louisiana State 55 - FCS Team 10 43.7 Louisiana State 44 - FCS Team 21
Louisville 34 - Jacksonville State 10 23.7 0.865 Louisville 49 - Jacksonville State 14 -11
Maryland 31 - Michigan State 21 10.2 0.753 Maryland 24 - Michigan State 27 13
Memphis 31 - Troy 21 9.4 0.755 Memphis 38 - Troy 17 -11
Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 13 30.4 Miami FL 56 - FCS Team 9
Michigan 35 - Texas 28 5.5 0.643 Michigan 12 - Texas 31 26
Minnesota 41 - FCS Team 10 31.5 Minnesota 48 - FCS Team 0
Mississippi 41 - Middle Tennessee 17 24.6 0.923 Mississippi 52 - Middle Tennessee 3 -25
Missouri 34 - Buffalo 13 20.8 0.897 Missouri 38 - Buffalo 0 -17
Navy 27 - Temple 13 13.3 0.789 Navy 38 - Temple 11 -13
Nebraska 34 - Colorado 21 10.5 0.757 Nebraska 28 - Colorado 10 -5
Nevada 28 - Georgia Southern 27 2 0.55 Nevada 17 - Georgia Southern 20 4
Nevada Las Vegas 38 - FCS Team 17 21.6 Nevada Las Vegas 72 - FCS Team 14
New Mexico St 21 - Liberty 28 7.5 0.682 New Mexico St 24 - Liberty 30 -1
North Carolina 41 - Charlotte 14 25.5 0.928 North Carolina 38 - Charlotte 20 9
North Texas 42 - FCS Team 21 22.5 North Texas 35 - FCS Team 20
Northwestern 24 - Duke 20 3.4 0.585 Northwestern 20 - Duke 26 10
Notre Dame 41 - Northern Illinois 10 29.7 0.958 Notre Dame 14 - Northern Illinois 16 33
Ohio 24 - South Alabama 21 3.9 0.608 Ohio 27 - South Alabama 20 -4
Ohio State 48 - Western Michigan 10 36.4 0.99 Ohio State 56 - Western Michigan 0 -18
Oklahoma 42 - Houston 21 20.8 0.887 Oklahoma 16 - Houston 12 17
Oklahoma State 35 - Arkansas 28 7.3 0.682 Oklahoma State 39 - Arkansas 31 -1
Old Dominion 20 - East Carolina 21 0.9 0.527 Old Dominion 14 - East Carolina 20 5
Oregon 41 - Boise State 24 15.5 0.836 Oregon 37 - Boise State 34 14
Penn State 42 - Bowling Green 7 35.2 0.984 Penn State 34 - Bowling Green 27 28
Rice 31 - FCS Team 17 12.2 Rice 69 - FCS Team 7
Rutgers 31 - Akron 13 18.9 0.87 Rutgers 49 - Akron 17 -14
San Diego State 17 - Oregon State 27 9.9 0.747 San Diego State 0 - Oregon State 21 11
Southern California 45 - Utah State 24 22.8 0.914 Southern California 48 - Utah State 0 -27
Southern Methodist 35 - Brigham Young 28 6.6 0.678 Southern Methodist 15 - Brigham Young 18 10
Southern Miss 31 - FCS Team 17 13.7 Southern Miss 35 - FCS Team 10
Stanford 41 - FCS Team 17 23.1 Stanford 41 - FCS Team 7
Syracuse 27 - Georgia Tech 24 1.7 0.535 Syracuse 31 - Georgia Tech 28 0
Tennessee 35 - NC State 21 14.1 0.784 Tennessee 51 - NC State 10 -27
Texas AM 45 - FCS Team 7 37.1 Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 10
Texas Christian 52 - FCS Team 14 36.2 Texas Christian 45 - FCS Team 0
Texas El Paso 31 - FCS Team 20 10.8 Texas El Paso 24 - FCS Team 27
Texas State 24 - Texas San Antonio 31 7.3 0.695 Texas State 49 - Texas San Antonio 10 -46
Toledo 35 - Massachusetts 10 26.5 0.981 Toledo 38 - Massachusetts 23 10
Tulane 24 - Kansas State 31 8.5 0.725 Tulane 27 - Kansas State 34 0
Utah 34 - Baylor 21 11.8 0.758 Utah 23 - Baylor 12 2
Vanderbilt 41 - FCS Team 17 22.7 Vanderbilt 55 - FCS Team 0
Virginia Tech 24 - Marshall 17 7.7 0.691 Virginia Tech 31 - Marshall 14 -10
Wake Forest 35 - Virginia 27 8.3 0.724 Wake Forest 30 - Virginia 31 9
Washington 41 - Eastern Michigan 14 25.8 0.954 Washington 30 - Eastern Michigan 9 6
Washington State 32 - Texas Tech 31 1.7 0.534 Washington State 37 - Texas Tech 16 -20
West Virginia 42 - FCS Team 13 29.9 West Virginia 49 - FCS Team 14
Western Kentucky 41 - FCS Team 17 23.3 Western Kentucky 31 - FCS Team 0
Wisconsin 42 - FCS Team 7 34.1 Wisconsin 27 - FCS Team 13
Wyoming 34 - FCS Team 14 20 Wyoming 13 - FCS Team 17


Number of FBS Games: 49
Number Correct: 32 = 65.3%
Expected Number Correct: 36.462 = 74.4%
Average Error: 14.42
Average Signed Error: -1.13

WEEK 3

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 31 - FCS Team 21 9 Akron 31 - FCS Team 20
Arkansas 38 - Alabama Birmingham 17 18.5 0.853 Arkansas 37 - Alabama Birmingham 27 11
Auburn 38 - New Mexico 17 22.2 0.922 Auburn 45 - New Mexico 19 -5
Baylor 21 - Air Force 17 3.3 0.604 Baylor 21 - Air Force 3 -14
Buffalo 31 - Massachusetts 10 19.2 0.952 Buffalo 34 - Massachusetts 3 -10
California 24 - San Diego State 13 11.2 0.767 California 31 - San Diego State 10 -10
Charlotte 31 - FCS Team 20 12 Charlotte 27 - FCS Team 26
Colorado State 23 - Colorado 24 0.5 0.518 Colorado State 9 - Colorado 28 18
Duke 35 - Connecticut 13 22.9 0.93 Duke 26 - Connecticut 21 17
East Carolina 29 - Appalachian State 28 0.1 0.505 East Carolina 19 - Appalachian State 21 3
Eastern Michigan 24 - Jacksonville State 17 7.9 0.692 Eastern Michigan 37 - Jacksonville State 34 4
Florida 27 - Texas AM 28 0.5 0.517 Florida 20 - Texas AM 33 12
Florida Atlantic 27 - Florida International 14 12.5 0.751 Florida Atlantic 38 - Florida International 20 -5
Florida State 31 - Memphis 28 2.9 0.581 Florida State 12 - Memphis 20 11
Fresno State 31 - New Mexico St 14 16.4 0.815 Fresno State 48 - New Mexico St 0 -31
Georgia Southern 41 - FCS Team 17 23 Georgia Southern 42 - FCS Team 14
Georgia State 28 - Vanderbilt 31 0.6 0.517 Georgia State 36 - Vanderbilt 32 -7
Georgia Tech 41 - FCS Team 14 27.6 Georgia Tech 59 - FCS Team 7
Houston 31 - Rice 13 17.1 0.807 Houston 33 - Rice 7 -8
Illinois 38 - Central Michigan 13 24.8 0.907 Illinois 30 - Central Michigan 9 4
Iowa 24 - Troy 10 14.3 0.821 Iowa 38 - Troy 21 -3
Kansas 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 7.1 0.693 Kansas 20 - Nevada Las Vegas 23 10
Kansas State 41 - Arizona 31 10.9 0.759 Kansas State 31 - Arizona 7 -14
Kentucky 13 - Georgia 35 22.3 0.87 Kentucky 12 - Georgia 13 -21
Liberty 34 - Texas El Paso 14 18.7 0.892 Liberty 28 - Texas El Paso 10 2
Miami FL 31 - Ball State 14 16.1 0.815 Miami FL 62 - Ball State 0 -45
Miami OH 14 - Cincinnati 17 2.1 0.57 Miami OH 16 - Cincinnati 27 8
Michigan 42 - Arkansas State 13 31.7 0.967 Michigan 28 - Arkansas State 18 19
Michigan State 41 - FCS Team 10 29 Michigan State 40 - FCS Team 0
Middle Tennessee 24 - Western Kentucky 27 2.1 0.543 Middle Tennessee 21 - Western Kentucky 49 25
Minnesota 28 - Nevada 13 15.9 0.856 Minnesota 27 - Nevada 0 -12
Miss State 31 - Toledo 21 10.2 0.772 Miss State 17 - Toledo 41 34
Missouri 31 - Boston College 17 14.5 0.79 Missouri 27 - Boston College 21 8
NC State 35 - Louisiana Tech 17 18.5 0.839 NC State 30 - Louisiana Tech 20 8
Nebraska 42 - FCS Team 10 33.1 Nebraska 34 - FCS Team 3
North Carolina 48 - FCS Team 14 32.3 North Carolina 45 - FCS Team 10
Northwestern 38 - FCS Team 10 27.8 Northwestern 31 - FCS Team 7
Ohio 38 - FCS Team 13 24.2 Ohio 21 - FCS Team 6
Oklahoma 38 - Tulane 24 13 0.785 Oklahoma 34 - Tulane 19 -1
Old Dominion 17 - Virginia Tech 24 5.7 0.659 Old Dominion 17 - Virginia Tech 37 13
Oregon State 27 - Oregon 31 4.2 0.627 Oregon State 14 - Oregon 49 31
Pittsburgh 28 - West Virginia 27 1.5 0.537 Pittsburgh 38 - West Virginia 34 -3
Purdue 24 - Notre Dame 34 7.9 0.701 Purdue 7 - Notre Dame 66 49
Sam Houston State 17 - Hawaii 20 2 0.543 Sam Houston State 31 - Hawaii 13 -21
San Jose State 27 - Kennesaw State 0 26.6 0.985 San Jose State 31 - Kennesaw State 10 6
South Alabama 38 - FCS Team 17 21.2 South Alabama 87 - FCS Team 10
South Carolina 28 - Louisiana State 34 6 0.638 South Carolina 33 - Louisiana State 36 -3
Southern Miss 24 - South Florida 28 4.6 0.596 Southern Miss 24 - South Florida 49 21
Temple 20 - Coastal Carolina 35 16.8 0.813 Temple 20 - Coastal Carolina 28 -7
Tennessee 55 - Kent State 17 38.1 0.988 Tennessee 71 - Kent State 0 -33
Texas 45 - Texas San Antonio 13 31 0.958 Texas 56 - Texas San Antonio 7 -17
Texas Christian 35 - Central Florida 31 3.9 0.588 Texas Christian 34 - Central Florida 35 5
Texas State 24 - Arizona State 31 5.3 0.617 Texas State 28 - Arizona State 31 -4
Texas Tech 41 - North Texas 31 11.2 0.741 Texas Tech 66 - North Texas 21 -35
Tulsa 24 - Oklahoma State 35 11.9 0.771 Tulsa 10 - Oklahoma State 45 24
UCLA 28 - Indiana 21 7.9 0.717 UCLA 13 - Indiana 42 36
Utah State 17 - Utah 35 17.6 0.835 Utah State 21 - Utah 38 -1
Virginia 28 - Maryland 31 2.9 0.575 Virginia 13 - Maryland 27 11
Wake Forest 28 - Mississippi 38 10.1 0.774 Wake Forest 6 - Mississippi 40 24
Washington 31 - Washington State 27 3.9 0.609 Washington 19 - Washington State 24 9
Western Michigan 35 - FCS Team 17 18.3 Western Michigan 59 - FCS Team 31
Wisconsin 21 - Alabama 38 16.1 0.844 Wisconsin 10 - Alabama 42 15
Wyoming 17 - Brigham Young 24 6.3 0.656 Wyoming 14 - Brigham Young 34 13


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 43 = 82.6%
Expected Number Correct: 38.382 = 73.8%
Average Error: 14.63
Average Signed Error: 2.71

WEEK 4

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 31 - South Alabama 24 7.1 0.665 Appalachian State 14 - South Alabama 48 41
Army 27 - Rice 7 19.4 0.84 Army 37 - Rice 14 -3
Auburn 34 - Arkansas 24 9 0.739 Auburn 14 - Arkansas 24 20
Boise State 52 - FCS Team 14 37.9 Boise State 56 - FCS Team 14
Boston College 24 - Michigan State 21 4.1 0.612 Boston College 23 - Michigan State 19 -1
Brigham Young 21 - Kansas State 31 8.5 0.735 Brigham Young 38 - Kansas State 9 -39
Central Michigan 24 - Ball State 21 1 0.523 Central Michigan 37 - Ball State 34 0
Cincinnati 24 - Houston 20 5.2 0.67 Cincinnati 34 - Houston 0 -30
Clemson 35 - NC State 17 19 0.847 Clemson 59 - NC State 35 -6
Coastal Carolina 31 - Virginia 27 3.5 0.594 Coastal Carolina 24 - Virginia 43 23
Colorado 20 - Baylor 27 6.2 0.705 Colorado 38 - Baylor 31 -14
Colorado State 21 - Texas El Paso 14 6.8 0.73 Colorado State 27 - Texas El Paso 17 -3
Connecticut 17 - Florida Atlantic 24 5.9 0.658 Connecticut 48 - Florida Atlantic 14 -41
Eastern Michigan 38 - FCS Team 17 21.2 Eastern Michigan 36 - FCS Team 0
Florida International 34 - FCS Team 21 12.6 Florida International 42 - FCS Team 45
Florida State 27 - California 20 5.9 0.681 Florida State 14 - California 9 2
Hawaii 34 - FCS Team 17 15.8 Hawaii 36 - FCS Team 7
Indiana 35 - Charlotte 13 22.7 0.928 Indiana 52 - Charlotte 14 -16
Iowa State 35 - Arkansas State 17 19.4 0.843 Iowa State 52 - Arkansas State 7 -27
Jacksonville State 24 - Southern Miss 21 3.2 0.577 Jacksonville State 44 - Southern Miss 7 -34
Kentucky 27 - Ohio 13 14.8 0.805 Kentucky 41 - Ohio 6 -21
Liberty 27 - East Carolina 20 7.2 0.712 Liberty 35 - East Carolina 24 -4
Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Tulane 27 0.8 0.524 Louisiana Lafayette 33 - Tulane 41 5
Louisiana State 42 - UCLA 21 21.3 0.869 Louisiana State 34 - UCLA 17 4
Louisiana Tech 27 - Tulsa 28 2.6 0.566 Louisiana Tech 20 - Tulsa 23 2
Louisville 34 - Georgia Tech 21 12.4 0.775 Louisville 31 - Georgia Tech 19 1
Maryland 48 - FCS Team 10 36.1 Maryland 38 - FCS Team 20
Massachusetts 27 - FCS Team 21 4.4 Massachusetts 35 - FCS Team 31
Michigan 35 - Southern California 27 7.8 0.699 Michigan 27 - Southern California 24 5
Middle Tennessee 20 - Duke 31 11 0.745 Middle Tennessee 17 - Duke 45 17
Minnesota 18 - Iowa 17 0 0.502 Minnesota 14 - Iowa 31 18
Miss State 27 - Florida 31 3.8 0.61 Miss State 28 - Florida 45 13
Mississippi 42 - Georgia Southern 20 24 0.971 Mississippi 52 - Georgia Southern 13 -17
Missouri 41 - Vanderbilt 17 22.9 0.91 Missouri 30 - Vanderbilt 27 21
Navy 21 - Memphis 27 6.4 0.697 Navy 56 - Memphis 44 -18
Nebraska 24 - Illinois 17 6.1 0.684 Nebraska 24 - Illinois 31 14
Nevada 34 - FCS Team 14 19.6 Nevada 49 - FCS Team 16
New Mexico 20 - Fresno State 38 18.5 0.845 New Mexico 21 - Fresno State 38 -1
North Carolina 28 - James Madison 21 5.7 0.641 North Carolina 50 - James Madison 70 27
North Texas 31 - Wyoming 28 2.6 0.55 North Texas 44 - Wyoming 17 -24
Northern Illinois 24 - Buffalo 14 8.2 0.682 Northern Illinois 20 - Buffalo 23 13
Notre Dame 35 - Miami OH 7 27.7 0.962 Notre Dame 28 - Miami OH 3 3
Ohio State 45 - Marshall 7 35.9 0.99 Ohio State 49 - Marshall 14 3
Oklahoma 34 - Tennessee 38 3.7 0.591 Oklahoma 15 - Tennessee 25 6
Oklahoma State 31 - Utah 28 2.7 0.566 Oklahoma State 19 - Utah 22 6
Oregon State 38 - Purdue 24 14.7 0.782 Oregon State 38 - Purdue 21 -3
Penn State 49 - Kent State 10 37.9 0.992 Penn State 56 - Kent State 0 -17
Pittsburgh 48 - FCS Team 14 32.7 Pittsburgh 73 - FCS Team 17
Sam Houston State 21 - New Mexico St 13 8.8 0.705 Sam Houston State 31 - New Mexico St 11 -12
South Carolina 42 - Akron 13 30 0.958 South Carolina 50 - Akron 7 -14
South Florida 28 - Miami FL 41 11.2 0.734 South Florida 15 - Miami FL 50 22
Southern Methodist 34 - Texas Christian 35 2.4 0.557 Southern Methodist 66 - Texas Christian 42 -25
Syracuse 34 - Stanford 24 8.7 0.7 Syracuse 24 - Stanford 26 12
Temple 24 - Utah State 27 2.9 0.576 Temple 45 - Utah State 29 -19
Texas 45 - Louisiana Monroe 10 36.3 0.977 Texas 51 - Louisiana Monroe 3 -13
Texas AM 38 - Bowling Green 14 21.9 0.913 Texas AM 26 - Bowling Green 20 18
Texas San Antonio 41 - FCS Team 17 23.8 Texas San Antonio 45 - FCS Team 7
Texas Tech 35 - Arizona State 28 7.9 0.685 Texas Tech 30 - Arizona State 22 -1
Troy 41 - FCS Team 13 27.3 Troy 34 - FCS Team 12
Virginia Tech 28 - Rutgers 24 3.3 0.584 Virginia Tech 23 - Rutgers 26 7
Washington 28 - Northwestern 13 16.3 0.866 Washington 24 - Northwestern 5 -4
Washington State 31 - San Jose State 17 15.9 0.82 Washington State 54 - San Jose State 52 12
West Virginia 31 - Kansas 28 4.3 0.621 West Virginia 32 - Kansas 28 -1
Western Kentucky 29 - Toledo 28 0.4 0.513 Western Kentucky 26 - Toledo 21 -4


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 38 = 70.3%
Expected Number Correct: 39.226 = 72.6%
Average Error: 13.46
Average Signed Error: -1.8

WEEK 5

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 31 - Georgia 27 3.9 0.582 Alabama 41 - Georgia 34 -3
Alabama Birmingham 21 - Navy 34 11.9 0.758 Alabama Birmingham 18 - Navy 41 10
Auburn 21 - Oklahoma 28 7.8 0.701 Auburn 21 - Oklahoma 27 -1
Baylor 21 - Brigham Young 27 5.1 0.632 Baylor 28 - Brigham Young 34 0
Boise State 38 - Washington State 35 0.2 0.508 Boise State 45 - Washington State 24 -18
Boston College 31 - Western Kentucky 21 9.7 0.742 Boston College 21 - Western Kentucky 20 9
Bowling Green 24 - Old Dominion 17 9.1 0.729 Bowling Green 27 - Old Dominion 30 10
Central Florida 38 - Colorado 21 15.6 0.826 Central Florida 21 - Colorado 48 44
Central Michigan 17 - San Diego State 20 3.1 0.577 Central Michigan 22 - San Diego State 21 -4
Clemson 42 - Stanford 21 22 0.92 Clemson 40 - Stanford 14 -5
Connecticut 20 - Buffalo 21 0.7 0.521 Connecticut 47 - Buffalo 3 -45
Duke 35 - North Carolina 31 3.2 0.596 Duke 21 - North Carolina 20 3
East Carolina 24 - Texas San Antonio 21 1.5 0.536 East Carolina 30 - Texas San Antonio 20 -7
Florida Atlantic 34 - FCS Team 13 20.5 Florida Atlantic 41 - FCS Team 10
Florida International 24 - Louisiana Tech 21 1.8 0.536 Florida International 17 - Louisiana Tech 10 -4
Georgia State 34 - Georgia Southern 28 6.5 0.674 Georgia State 21 - Georgia Southern 38 23
Houston 17 - Iowa State 31 14.5 0.776 Houston 0 - Iowa State 20 6
Indiana 29 - Maryland 28 0.2 0.508 Indiana 42 - Maryland 28 -13
James Madison 42 - Ball State 17 24.2 0.913 James Madison 63 - Ball State 7 -31
Kansas 35 - Texas Christian 41 4.5 0.616 Kansas 27 - Texas Christian 38 5
Kansas State 31 - Oklahoma State 24 4.7 0.618 Kansas State 42 - Oklahoma State 20 -15
Kennesaw State 24 - FCS Team 13 10.4 Kennesaw State 13 - FCS Team 24
Kent State 27 - Eastern Michigan 31 6.5 0.699 Kent State 33 - Eastern Michigan 52 15
Louisiana State 42 - South Alabama 20 21.9 0.883 Louisiana State 42 - South Alabama 10 -10
Marshall 27 - Western Michigan 17 9.4 0.752 Marshall 27 - Western Michigan 20 3
Memphis 42 - Middle Tennessee 17 24.6 0.956 Memphis 24 - Middle Tennessee 7 8
Miami FL 35 - Virginia Tech 20 14.5 0.8 Miami FL 38 - Virginia Tech 34 11
Miami OH 28 - Massachusetts 3 24.6 0.982 Miami OH 23 - Massachusetts 20 22
Michigan 31 - Minnesota 13 17.3 0.842 Michigan 27 - Minnesota 24 15
Michigan State 21 - Ohio State 38 17.1 0.854 Michigan State 7 - Ohio State 38 14
Mississippi 31 - Kentucky 20 10.2 0.748 Mississippi 17 - Kentucky 20 14
NC State 27 - Northern Illinois 21 5.2 0.624 NC State 24 - Northern Illinois 17 -1
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Fresno State 27 0.7 0.521 Nevada Las Vegas 59 - Fresno State 14 -48
New Mexico St 24 - New Mexico 21 1.9 0.546 New Mexico St 40 - New Mexico 50 13
North Texas 35 - Tulsa 28 8.4 0.698 North Texas 52 - Tulsa 20 -25
Notre Dame 31 - Louisville 24 7.8 0.696 Notre Dame 31 - Louisville 24 0
Ohio 31 - Akron 14 16.9 0.866 Ohio 30 - Akron 10 -3
Penn State 34 - Illinois 17 16.9 0.864 Penn State 21 - Illinois 7 3
Purdue 24 - Nebraska 34 8.4 0.712 Purdue 10 - Nebraska 28 8
Rice 21 - Charlotte 20 3.1 0.58 Rice 20 - Charlotte 21 2
Rutgers 21 - Washington 28 7.4 0.738 Rutgers 21 - Washington 18 -10
Southern California 34 - Wisconsin 24 11.4 0.789 Southern California 38 - Wisconsin 21 -7
Southern Methodist 34 - Florida State 27 5.4 0.643 Southern Methodist 42 - Florida State 16 -19
Syracuse 42 - FCS Team 13 29.3 Syracuse 42 - FCS Team 14
Temple 14 - Army 24 9.8 0.747 Temple 14 - Army 42 18
Texas 48 - Miss State 14 31.4 0.982 Texas 35 - Miss State 13 12
Texas AM 31 - Arkansas 24 9.1 0.766 Texas AM 21 - Arkansas 17 3
Texas State 24 - Sam Houston State 20 6.2 0.653 Texas State 39 - Sam Houston State 40 5
Texas Tech 31 - Cincinnati 27 3.9 0.587 Texas Tech 44 - Cincinnati 41 1
Troy 28 - Louisiana Monroe 17 11 0.751 Troy 9 - Louisiana Monroe 13 15
Tulane 38 - South Florida 27 12.1 0.777 Tulane 45 - South Florida 10 -24
UCLA 21 - Oregon 38 16.7 0.838 UCLA 13 - Oregon 34 4
Utah 35 - Arizona 21 14.2 0.779 Utah 10 - Arizona 23 27
Wake Forest 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 4.5 0.643 Wake Forest 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 41 7
Wyoming 13 - Air Force 17 4.6 0.611 Wyoming 31 - Air Force 19 -16


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 37 = 71.1%
Expected Number Correct: 37.196 = 71.5%
Average Error: 12.28
Average Signed Error: 0.4

WEEK 6

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 17 - Navy 24 5.3 0.655 Air Force 7 - Navy 34 20
Akron 20 - Bowling Green 31 9.8 0.757 Akron 20 - Bowling Green 27 -4
Alabama Birmingham 20 - Tulane 34 14 0.805 Alabama Birmingham 20 - Tulane 71 37
Arizona 31 - Texas Tech 34 2.9 0.559 Arizona 22 - Texas Tech 28 3
Arizona State 34 - Kansas 27 6.3 0.671 Arizona State 35 - Kansas 31 3
Arkansas 24 - Tennessee 41 16.4 0.83 Arkansas 19 - Tennessee 14 -22
Arkansas State 27 - South Alabama 28 2.9 0.561 Arkansas State 18 - South Alabama 16 -3
Ball State 21 - Western Michigan 24 2.7 0.582 Ball State 42 - Western Michigan 45 0
Boise State 49 - Utah State 20 30.9 0.966 Boise State 62 - Utah State 30 -3
California 21 - Miami FL 28 6.8 0.71 California 38 - Miami FL 39 -6
Charlotte 20 - East Carolina 24 4.5 0.645 Charlotte 55 - East Carolina 24 -35
Coastal Carolina 27 - Old Dominion 21 6.5 0.677 Coastal Carolina 45 - Old Dominion 37 -2
Connecticut 34 - Temple 17 17 0.792 Connecticut 29 - Temple 20 8
Florida 38 - Central Florida 31 4.8 0.615 Florida 24 - Central Florida 13 -4
Florida State 24 - Clemson 34 10 0.755 Florida State 13 - Clemson 29 6
Georgia 38 - Auburn 13 26 0.931 Georgia 31 - Auburn 13 7
Georgia Tech 28 - Duke 27 0.7 0.525 Georgia Tech 24 - Duke 14 -9
Iowa State 31 - Baylor 17 14.5 0.821 Iowa State 43 - Baylor 21 -8
Kennesaw State 10 - Jacksonville State 17 6.9 0.693 Kennesaw State 24 - Jacksonville State 63 32
Louisiana Monroe 20 - James Madison 35 15.3 0.786 Louisiana Monroe 21 - James Madison 19 -17
Louisville 35 - Southern Methodist 31 4.1 0.611 Louisville 27 - Southern Methodist 34 11
Marshall 28 - Appalachian State 21 6.4 0.665 Marshall 52 - Appalachian State 37 -8
Minnesota 27 - Southern California 31 4.3 0.638 Minnesota 24 - Southern California 17 -11
NC State 31 - Wake Forest 27 4.7 0.666 NC State 30 - Wake Forest 34 8
Nebraska 27 - Rutgers 21 4.6 0.658 Nebraska 14 - Rutgers 7 -1
Nevada Las Vegas 34 - Syracuse 21 10.9 0.726 Nevada Las Vegas 41 - Syracuse 44 16
North Carolina 35 - Pittsburgh 34 3 0.588 North Carolina 24 - Pittsburgh 34 11
Northern Illinois 31 - Massachusetts 10 20.7 0.846 Northern Illinois 34 - Massachusetts 20 7
Northwestern 20 - Indiana 28 8.6 0.741 Northwestern 24 - Indiana 41 9
Ohio State 35 - Iowa 20 15.9 0.868 Ohio State 35 - Iowa 7 -13
Oklahoma State 34 - West Virginia 28 5.3 0.653 Oklahoma State 14 - West Virginia 38 30
Oregon 38 - Michigan State 17 21.3 0.945 Oregon 31 - Michigan State 10 0
Oregon State 31 - Colorado State 13 18.3 0.918 Oregon State 39 - Colorado State 31 10
Penn State 35 - UCLA 14 19.7 0.908 Penn State 27 - UCLA 11 5
San Diego State 17 - Hawaii 13 4.3 0.628 San Diego State 27 - Hawaii 24 1
San Jose State 31 - Nevada 17 12.1 0.778 San Jose State 35 - Nevada 31 10
South Carolina 30 - Mississippi 31 1.3 0.53 South Carolina 3 - Mississippi 27 23
Southern Miss 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 35 17.4 0.836 Southern Miss 13 - Louisiana Lafayette 23 -5
Stanford 24 - Virginia Tech 28 5.1 0.657 Stanford 7 - Virginia Tech 31 20
Texas AM 25 - Missouri 24 2.4 0.567 Texas AM 41 - Missouri 10 -30
Texas Christian 38 - Houston 24 11.4 0.756 Texas Christian 19 - Houston 30 25
Texas El Paso 14 - Sam Houston State 21 7 0.707 Texas El Paso 21 - Sam Houston State 41 13
Toledo 24 - Miami OH 14 8.4 0.736 Toledo 30 - Miami OH 20 0
Troy 28 - Texas State 24 3.1 0.577 Troy 17 - Texas State 38 25
Tulsa 17 - Army 28 12 0.798 Tulsa 7 - Army 49 31
Vanderbilt 21 - Alabama 49 27.3 0.925 Vanderbilt 40 - Alabama 35 -33
Virginia 27 - Boston College 24 2.2 0.57 Virginia 24 - Boston College 14 -7
Washington 23 - Michigan 24 2.1 0.554 Washington 27 - Michigan 17 -11
Wisconsin 35 - Purdue 20 16.5 0.832 Wisconsin 52 - Purdue 6 -31


Number of FBS Games: 49
Number Correct: 35 = 71.4%
Expected Number Correct: 35.218 = 71.8%
Average Error: 12.93
Average Signed Error: 2.2

WEEK 7

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 42 - South Carolina 24 17.9 0.799 Alabama 27 - South Carolina 25 16
Arizona State 27 - Utah 24 2.1 0.552 Arizona State 27 - Utah 19 -5
Army 35 - Alabama Birmingham 14 20.9 0.887 Army 44 - Alabama Birmingham 10 -13
Bowling Green 24 - Northern Illinois 20 4 0.59 Bowling Green 7 - Northern Illinois 17 14
Brigham Young 34 - Arizona 21 12.3 0.758 Brigham Young 41 - Arizona 19 -9
Buffalo 17 - Toledo 24 6.5 0.658 Buffalo 30 - Toledo 15 -22
Central Florida 27 - Cincinnati 31 4 0.591 Central Florida 13 - Cincinnati 19 2
Central Michigan 20 - Ohio 27 8.4 0.73 Central Michigan 25 - Ohio 27 -5
Colorado 24 - Kansas State 34 8.4 0.693 Colorado 28 - Kansas State 31 -7
Colorado State 24 - San Jose State 28 5.2 0.689 Colorado State 31 - San Jose State 24 -11
Eastern Michigan 21 - Miami OH 20 1.9 0.554 Eastern Michigan 14 - Miami OH 38 25
Florida Atlantic 28 - North Texas 31 2.1 0.537 Florida Atlantic 37 - North Texas 41 1
Fresno State 27 - Washington State 31 5.9 0.62 Fresno State 17 - Washington State 25 4
Georgia 42 - Miss State 14 29.3 0.966 Georgia 41 - Miss State 31 18
Georgia Southern 31 - Marshall 24 5.1 0.662 Georgia Southern 24 - Marshall 23 6
Georgia State 28 - Old Dominion 24 5.3 0.635 Georgia State 14 - Old Dominion 21 11
Hawaii 20 - Boise State 41 22.1 0.915 Hawaii 7 - Boise State 28 0
Illinois 35 - Purdue 14 21 0.867 Illinois 50 - Purdue 49 20
Iowa 21 - Washington 20 2.3 0.568 Iowa 40 - Washington 16 -23
Jacksonville State 31 - New Mexico St 17 16.5 0.779 Jacksonville State 54 - New Mexico St 13 -27
James Madison 38 - Coastal Carolina 27 10.8 0.733 James Madison 39 - Coastal Carolina 7 -21
Kent State 34 - Ball State 31 1.4 0.539 Kent State 35 - Ball State 37 5
Kentucky 34 - Vanderbilt 21 12.8 0.745 Kentucky 13 - Vanderbilt 20 20
Liberty 27 - Florida International 14 13.2 0.767 Liberty 31 - Florida International 24 6
Louisiana Lafayette 35 - Appalachian State 24 13.2 0.781 Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Appalachian State 24 1
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Southern Miss 10 16.2 0.799 Louisiana Monroe 38 - Southern Miss 21 -3
Louisiana State 32 - Mississippi 31 0.5 0.521 Louisiana State 29 - Mississippi 26 -2
Louisiana Tech 21 - Middle Tennessee 20 0.3 0.515 Louisiana Tech 48 - Middle Tennessee 21 -26
Maryland 31 - Northwestern 17 14 0.792 Maryland 10 - Northwestern 37 41
Massachusetts 10 - Missouri 38 27.4 0.94 Massachusetts 3 - Missouri 45 14
NC State 30 - Syracuse 31 0.6 0.521 NC State 17 - Syracuse 24 6
Nevada 21 - Oregon State 28 6.6 0.701 Nevada 42 - Oregon State 37 -12
New Mexico 20 - Air Force 24 4.9 0.681 New Mexico 52 - Air Force 37 -19
North Carolina 31 - Georgia Tech 28 2.8 0.588 North Carolina 34 - Georgia Tech 41 10
Notre Dame 38 - Stanford 10 26.2 0.942 Notre Dame 49 - Stanford 7 -14
Oregon 31 - Ohio State 34 4.4 0.664 Oregon 32 - Ohio State 31 -4
Pittsburgh 31 - California 24 6.1 0.688 Pittsburgh 17 - California 15 5
Rice 21 - Texas San Antonio 20 1.3 0.53 Rice 29 - Texas San Antonio 27 -1
Rutgers 25 - Wisconsin 24 0.2 0.51 Rutgers 7 - Wisconsin 42 36
South Florida 27 - Memphis 35 9.9 0.741 South Florida 3 - Memphis 21 10
Southern California 27 - Penn State 31 2.8 0.581 Southern California 30 - Penn State 33 -1
Tennessee 38 - Florida 24 14.1 0.787 Tennessee 23 - Florida 17 8
Texas 34 - Oklahoma 27 8.1 0.71 Texas 34 - Oklahoma 3 -24
Texas State 34 - Arkansas State 21 10.7 0.743 Texas State 41 - Arkansas State 9 -19
UCLA 21 - Minnesota 24 2.5 0.567 UCLA 17 - Minnesota 21 1
Utah State 27 - Nevada Las Vegas 41 15.4 0.798 Utah State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 50 2
Virginia 24 - Louisville 28 4.7 0.652 Virginia 20 - Louisville 24 0
Wake Forest 28 - Clemson 41 11.9 0.813 Wake Forest 14 - Clemson 49 22
West Virginia 27 - Iowa State 31 5.1 0.643 West Virginia 16 - Iowa State 28 8
Western Kentucky 34 - Texas El Paso 13 21 0.904 Western Kentucky 44 - Texas El Paso 17 -6
Western Michigan 28 - Akron 20 8.5 0.75 Western Michigan 34 - Akron 24 -2
Wyoming 20 - San Diego State 13 6.4 0.682 Wyoming 24 - San Diego State 27 10


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 38 = 73%
Expected Number Correct: 36.378 = 69.9%
Average Error: 11.5
Average Signed Error: 0.88

WEEK 8

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 18 - Colorado State 17 0.7 0.523 Air Force 13 - Colorado State 21 9
Arizona 31 - Colorado 28 2 0.547 Arizona 7 - Colorado 34 30
Arkansas 28 - Louisiana State 35 8.2 0.716 Arkansas 10 - Louisiana State 34 17
Army 31 - East Carolina 10 21.5 0.91 Army 45 - East Carolina 28 4
Bowling Green 35 - Kent State 20 17.5 0.856 Bowling Green 27 - Kent State 6 -6
Brigham Young 38 - Oklahoma State 24 13.9 0.772 Brigham Young 38 - Oklahoma State 35 11
Buffalo 27 - Western Michigan 17 8.8 0.704 Buffalo 41 - Western Michigan 48 17
California 27 - NC State 17 9.3 0.766 California 23 - NC State 24 11
Cincinnati 31 - Arizona State 24 7 0.702 Cincinnati 24 - Arizona State 14 -3
Clemson 38 - Virginia 21 16.3 0.855 Clemson 48 - Virginia 31 0
Coastal Carolina 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 3.1 0.583 Coastal Carolina 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 34 11
Connecticut 31 - Wake Forest 27 4.4 0.588 Connecticut 20 - Wake Forest 23 7
Duke 24 - Florida State 20 2.6 0.575 Duke 23 - Florida State 16 -3
Eastern Michigan 28 - Central Michigan 21 6.7 0.688 Eastern Michigan 38 - Central Michigan 34 3
Florida 24 - Kentucky 21 2.7 0.571 Florida 48 - Kentucky 20 -25
Georgia Southern 21 - James Madison 34 10.3 0.738 Georgia Southern 28 - James Madison 14 -27
Georgia Tech 20 - Notre Dame 35 16.2 0.838 Georgia Tech 13 - Notre Dame 31 3
Illinois 24 - Michigan 31 7.2 0.69 Illinois 21 - Michigan 7 -21
Indiana 31 - Nebraska 21 10.3 0.76 Indiana 56 - Nebraska 7 -39
Iowa State 35 - Central Florida 17 17.4 0.845 Iowa State 38 - Central Florida 35 15
Kansas 23 - Houston 24 0.5 0.516 Kansas 42 - Houston 14 -29
Louisville 34 - Miami FL 28 4.5 0.632 Louisville 45 - Miami FL 52 13
Marshall 27 - Georgia State 21 6.1 0.669 Marshall 35 - Georgia State 20 -9
Maryland 31 - Southern California 35 5.4 0.615 Maryland 29 - Southern California 28 -5
Memphis 38 - North Texas 28 10.9 0.752 Memphis 52 - North Texas 44 2
Miami OH 20 - Ohio 14 6.1 0.695 Miami OH 30 - Ohio 20 -4
Michigan State 17 - Iowa 27 9.3 0.749 Michigan State 32 - Iowa 20 -22
Middle Tennessee 27 - Kennesaw State 14 12.2 0.792 Middle Tennessee 14 - Kennesaw State 5 4
Miss State 24 - Texas AM 35 11 0.741 Miss State 24 - Texas AM 34 -1
Missouri 31 - Auburn 21 8.2 0.714 Missouri 21 - Auburn 17 6
Navy 35 - Charlotte 17 17.5 0.845 Navy 51 - Charlotte 17 -16
Nevada 23 - Fresno State 24 0 0.5 Nevada 21 - Fresno State 24 2
New Mexico St 17 - Louisiana Tech 24 6 0.64 New Mexico St 33 - Louisiana Tech 30 -10
Northern Illinois 21 - Toledo 20 2.3 0.547 Northern Illinois 6 - Toledo 13 8
Northwestern 20 - Wisconsin 24 5 0.605 Northwestern 3 - Wisconsin 23 16
Oklahoma 28 - South Carolina 24 5.3 0.634 Oklahoma 9 - South Carolina 35 30
Old Dominion 24 - Texas State 28 6.1 0.676 Old Dominion 24 - Texas State 14 -14
Oregon State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 2.5 0.559 Oregon State 25 - Nevada Las Vegas 33 11
Purdue 21 - Oregon 48 25 0.948 Purdue 0 - Oregon 35 8
Rutgers 23 - UCLA 24 0 0.502 Rutgers 32 - UCLA 35 2
Sam Houston State 23 - Western Kentucky 24 0.8 0.522 Sam Houston State 14 - Western Kentucky 31 16
San Jose State 27 - Wyoming 20 8.8 0.734 San Jose State 24 - Wyoming 14 -3
South Alabama 21 - Troy 20 2 0.547 South Alabama 25 - Troy 9 -15
South Florida 31 - Alabama Birmingham 24 6.9 0.674 South Florida 35 - Alabama Birmingham 25 -3
Southern Miss 20 - Arkansas State 24 4 0.605 Southern Miss 28 - Arkansas State 44 12
Stanford 24 - Southern Methodist 41 16.7 0.862 Stanford 10 - Southern Methodist 40 13
Temple 27 - Tulsa 21 5.8 0.674 Temple 20 - Tulsa 10 -4
Tennessee 31 - Alabama 35 2.8 0.556 Tennessee 24 - Alabama 17 -11
Texas 35 - Georgia 27 7.5 0.691 Texas 15 - Georgia 30 23
Texas El Paso 17 - Florida International 20 3.3 0.587 Texas El Paso 30 - Florida International 21 -12
Texas San Antonio 23 - Florida Atlantic 24 0.3 0.511 Texas San Antonio 38 - Florida Atlantic 24 -15
Texas Tech 38 - Baylor 27 11 0.751 Texas Tech 35 - Baylor 59 35
Tulane 38 - Rice 14 24.2 0.934 Tulane 24 - Rice 10 10
Utah 35 - Texas Christian 31 5.3 0.651 Utah 7 - Texas Christian 13 10
Utah State 41 - New Mexico 35 4.9 0.668 Utah State 45 - New Mexico 50 11
Vanderbilt 45 - Ball State 17 27.5 0.945 Vanderbilt 24 - Ball State 14 18
Virginia Tech 28 - Boston College 20 7.8 0.734 Virginia Tech 42 - Boston College 21 -13
Washington State 34 - Hawaii 13 20.7 0.882 Washington State 42 - Hawaii 10 -11
West Virginia 28 - Kansas State 31 2.5 0.56 West Virginia 18 - Kansas State 45 24


Number of FBS Games: 59
Number Correct: 35 = 59.3%
Expected Number Correct: 40.646 = 68.8%
Average Error: 12.42
Average Signed Error: 1.54

WEEK 9

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 24 - Eastern Michigan 28 5 0.666 Akron 25 - Eastern Michigan 21 -8
Alabama 41 - Missouri 21 18 0.81 Alabama 34 - Missouri 0 -14
Appalachian State 29 - Georgia State 28 0.7 0.521 Appalachian State 33 - Georgia State 26 -6
Arizona 27 - West Virginia 28 2.7 0.568 Arizona 26 - West Virginia 31 4
Arkansas State 20 - Troy 21 0.5 0.519 Arkansas State 34 - Troy 31 -4
Ball State 17 - Northern Illinois 24 7.6 0.69 Ball State 25 - Northern Illinois 23 -9
Baylor 35 - Oklahoma State 31 5.5 0.64 Baylor 38 - Oklahoma State 28 -6
Boston College 24 - Louisville 31 8.8 0.756 Boston College 27 - Louisville 31 -3
California 28 - Oregon State 24 4.5 0.663 California 44 - Oregon State 7 -33
Central Florida 28 - Brigham Young 31 3.5 0.584 Central Florida 24 - Brigham Young 37 10
Colorado 27 - Cincinnati 24 0.8 0.522 Colorado 34 - Cincinnati 23 -8
Colorado State 35 - New Mexico 27 9.8 0.797 Colorado State 17 - New Mexico 6 -3
Connecticut 24 - Rice 13 12.5 0.751 Connecticut 17 - Rice 10 4
Duke 27 - Southern Methodist 35 7.4 0.731 Duke 27 - Southern Methodist 28 -7
East Carolina 27 - Temple 20 6.9 0.685 East Carolina 56 - Temple 34 -15
Florida International 17 - Sam Houston State 21 4.9 0.613 Florida International 7 - Sam Houston State 10 -1
Fresno State 24 - San Jose State 20 5.1 0.635 Fresno State 33 - San Jose State 10 -19
Hawaii 20 - Nevada 24 3.8 0.615 Hawaii 34 - Nevada 13 -25
Houston 17 - Utah 20 2.6 0.56 Houston 17 - Utah 14 -6
Indiana 38 - Washington 24 13.4 0.763 Indiana 31 - Washington 17 0
Iowa 27 - Northwestern 17 10.1 0.724 Iowa 40 - Northwestern 14 -16
Jacksonville State 31 - Middle Tennessee 17 16.4 0.788 Jacksonville State 42 - Middle Tennessee 20 -8
James Madison 38 - Southern Miss 10 29.3 0.935 James Madison 32 - Southern Miss 15 11
Kansas State 41 - Kansas 24 16 0.81 Kansas State 29 - Kansas 27 15
Kennesaw State 6 - Liberty 24 19.8 0.951 Kennesaw State 27 - Liberty 24 -21
Kentucky 24 - Auburn 20 6 0.66 Kentucky 10 - Auburn 24 18
Louisiana Tech 24 - Texas El Paso 20 4.6 0.637 Louisiana Tech 14 - Texas El Paso 10 0
Massachusetts 28 - FCS Team 21 7.7 Massachusetts 35 - FCS Team 7
Memphis 38 - Charlotte 17 18.7 0.877 Memphis 33 - Charlotte 28 16
Miami FL 38 - Florida State 21 14.5 0.804 Miami FL 36 - Florida State 14 -5
Miami OH 27 - Central Michigan 13 14.5 0.832 Miami OH 46 - Central Michigan 7 -25
Michigan 28 - Michigan State 20 8.8 0.714 Michigan 24 - Michigan State 17 1
Minnesota 28 - Maryland 24 4.2 0.592 Minnesota 48 - Maryland 23 -21
Miss State 32 - Arkansas 31 0.1 0.504 Miss State 25 - Arkansas 58 34
Mississippi 35 - Oklahoma 21 14.1 0.787 Mississippi 26 - Oklahoma 14 2
Nevada Las Vegas 31 - Boise State 35 4.1 0.605 Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Boise State 29 1
North Texas 34 - Tulane 41 8.3 0.692 North Texas 37 - Tulane 45 1
Notre Dame 34 - Navy 20 14 0.796 Notre Dame 51 - Navy 14 -23
Ohio 24 - Buffalo 20 3.5 0.575 Ohio 47 - Buffalo 16 -27
Ohio State 41 - Nebraska 13 27.7 0.955 Ohio State 21 - Nebraska 17 24
Old Dominion 21 - Georgia Southern 24 2.1 0.551 Old Dominion 47 - Georgia Southern 19 -31
Oregon 38 - Illinois 20 18.2 0.898 Oregon 38 - Illinois 9 -11
Pittsburgh 34 - Syracuse 24 7.9 0.722 Pittsburgh 41 - Syracuse 13 -18
San Diego State 14 - Washington State 28 13 0.812 San Diego State 26 - Washington State 29 -11
South Alabama 24 - Louisiana Monroe 17 6.5 0.665 South Alabama 46 - Louisiana Monroe 17 -22
Southern California 38 - Rutgers 21 16.5 0.828 Southern California 42 - Rutgers 20 -5
Stanford 27 - Wake Forest 28 2.6 0.594 Stanford 24 - Wake Forest 27 2
Texas AM 30 - Louisiana State 31 2.2 0.555 Texas AM 38 - Louisiana State 23 -16
Texas Christian 39 - Texas Tech 38 2 0.539 Texas Christian 35 - Texas Tech 34 0
Toledo 24 - Bowling Green 14 9.8 0.73 Toledo 26 - Bowling Green 41 25
Tulsa 20 - Texas San Antonio 24 4.5 0.635 Tulsa 46 - Texas San Antonio 45 -5
Vanderbilt 20 - Texas 38 17.1 0.798 Vanderbilt 24 - Texas 27 -15
Virginia 35 - North Carolina 31 4.4 0.661 Virginia 14 - North Carolina 41 31
Virginia Tech 31 - Georgia Tech 24 7.6 0.735 Virginia Tech 21 - Georgia Tech 6 -8
Western Michigan 41 - Kent State 24 16.4 0.901 Western Michigan 52 - Kent State 21 -14
Wisconsin 23 - Penn State 24 0 0.502 Wisconsin 13 - Penn State 28 14
Wyoming 31 - Utah State 24 6.5 0.69 Wyoming 25 - Utah State 27 9


Number of FBS Games: 56
Number Correct: 42 = 75%
Expected Number Correct: 39.143 = 69.8%
Average Error: 12.33
Average Signed Error: -4.42

WEEK 10

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 21 - Buffalo 24 1.8 0.537 Akron 30 - Buffalo 41 8
Alabama Birmingham 28 - Tulsa 24 4.4 0.626 Alabama Birmingham 59 - Tulsa 21 -34
Appalachian State 24 - Old Dominion 28 3.6 0.591 Appalachian State 28 - Old Dominion 20 -12
Arkansas 28 - Mississippi 34 6 0.651 Arkansas 31 - Mississippi 63 26
Army 28 - Air Force 7 20.8 0.94 Army 20 - Air Force 3 4
Auburn 31 - Vanderbilt 24 6.2 0.654 Auburn 7 - Vanderbilt 17 17
Baylor 38 - Texas Christian 31 5.5 0.651 Baylor 37 - Texas Christian 34 4
Boise State 35 - San Diego State 13 22.4 0.954 Boise State 56 - San Diego State 24 -10
Central Florida 34 - Arizona 24 9.9 0.761 Central Florida 56 - Arizona 12 -34
Charlotte 24 - Tulane 35 13.3 0.772 Charlotte 3 - Tulane 34 20
Clemson 41 - Louisville 31 9.4 0.753 Clemson 21 - Louisville 33 22
Connecticut 27 - Georgia State 20 7.4 0.672 Connecticut 34 - Georgia State 27 0
Eastern Michigan 21 - Toledo 27 4.3 0.615 Eastern Michigan 28 - Toledo 29 -5
Florida Atlantic 25 - South Florida 24 1.6 0.533 Florida Atlantic 21 - South Florida 44 24
Florida International 24 - New Mexico St 14 8.8 0.693 Florida International 34 - New Mexico St 13 -11
Florida State 27 - North Carolina 28 0 0.503 Florida State 11 - North Carolina 35 23
Fresno State 24 - Hawaii 13 12.2 0.745 Fresno State 20 - Hawaii 21 12
Georgia 38 - Florida 27 10.4 0.735 Georgia 34 - Florida 20 -3
Houston 17 - Kansas State 31 12.7 0.768 Houston 24 - Kansas State 19 -19
Illinois 24 - Minnesota 27 1.4 0.534 Illinois 17 - Minnesota 25 5
Iowa 27 - Wisconsin 24 2.5 0.552 Iowa 42 - Wisconsin 10 -29
Iowa State 41 - Texas Tech 27 14.1 0.775 Iowa State 22 - Texas Tech 23 15
Liberty 26 - Jacksonville State 27 0.6 0.515 Liberty 21 - Jacksonville State 31 9
Marshall 28 - Louisiana Monroe 17 11.7 0.778 Marshall 28 - Louisiana Monroe 23 6
Miami FL 41 - Duke 24 14.6 0.843 Miami FL 53 - Duke 31 -5
Michigan 24 - Oregon 31 7.3 0.714 Michigan 17 - Oregon 38 14
Michigan State 24 - Indiana 34 9.7 0.721 Michigan State 10 - Indiana 47 27
Miss State 42 - Massachusetts 17 27.4 0.936 Miss State 45 - Massachusetts 20 0
NC State 31 - Stanford 20 9.6 0.778 NC State 59 - Stanford 28 -20
Nebraska 27 - UCLA 21 4.7 0.624 Nebraska 20 - UCLA 27 13
Nevada 21 - Colorado State 20 1.2 0.534 Nevada 21 - Colorado State 38 18
New Mexico 27 - Wyoming 24 1.2 0.538 New Mexico 45 - Wyoming 49 7
Oklahoma 48 - FCS Team 7 39.6 Oklahoma 59 - FCS Team 14
Oklahoma State 31 - Arizona State 28 2.5 0.564 Oklahoma State 21 - Arizona State 42 24
Penn State 27 - Ohio State 28 2.7 0.579 Penn State 13 - Ohio State 20 6
Purdue 24 - Northwestern 31 5.2 0.623 Purdue 20 - Northwestern 26 -1
Rice 14 - Navy 27 12.8 0.794 Rice 24 - Navy 10 -27
Sam Houston State 24 - Louisiana Tech 13 11.2 0.766 Sam Houston State 9 - Louisiana Tech 3 5
South Alabama 28 - Georgia Southern 21 6.3 0.65 South Alabama 30 - Georgia Southern 34 11
South Carolina 27 - Texas AM 28 0.2 0.507 South Carolina 44 - Texas AM 20 -25
Southern Methodist 35 - Pittsburgh 31 4.7 0.641 Southern Methodist 48 - Pittsburgh 25 -19
Syracuse 24 - Virginia Tech 31 7.1 0.69 Syracuse 38 - Virginia Tech 31 -14
Tennessee 34 - Kentucky 14 17.8 0.814 Tennessee 28 - Kentucky 18 10
Texas El Paso 20 - Middle Tennessee 17 3.1 0.596 Texas El Paso 13 - Middle Tennessee 20 10
Texas San Antonio 24 - Memphis 35 10.4 0.779 Texas San Antonio 44 - Memphis 36 -19
Texas State 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 3.4 0.596 Texas State 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 23 10
Troy 25 - Coastal Carolina 24 0.2 0.506 Troy 38 - Coastal Carolina 24 -13
Washington 28 - Southern California 31 2.4 0.561 Washington 26 - Southern California 21 -8
Western Kentucky 31 - Kennesaw State 6 26 0.941 Western Kentucky 31 - Kennesaw State 14 8


Number of FBS Games: 48
Number Correct: 29 = 60.4%
Expected Number Correct: 32.603 = 67.9%
Average Error: 13.87
Average Signed Error: 1.04

WEEK 11

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 10 - Fresno State 17 5.8 0.651 Air Force 36 - Fresno State 28 -15
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Connecticut 27 4 0.583 Alabama Birmingham 23 - Connecticut 31 5
Arizona State 32 - Central Florida 31 1 0.526 Arizona State 35 - Central Florida 31 -3
Ball State 17 - Miami OH 24 9.1 0.716 Ball State 21 - Miami OH 27 -1
Boise State 42 - Nevada 17 26.5 0.973 Boise State 28 - Nevada 21 18
Boston College 28 - Syracuse 27 1.4 0.532 Boston College 37 - Syracuse 31 -5
Central Michigan 17 - Bowling Green 24 6.6 0.676 Central Michigan 13 - Bowling Green 23 3
Cincinnati 31 - West Virginia 21 10.2 0.752 Cincinnati 24 - West Virginia 31 17
Coastal Carolina 31 - Appalachian State 28 1.2 0.527 Coastal Carolina 38 - Appalachian State 24 -11
East Carolina 31 - Florida Atlantic 21 8 0.688 East Carolina 49 - Florida Atlantic 14 -25
Georgia Tech 28 - Miami FL 38 9 0.754 Georgia Tech 28 - Miami FL 23 -15
Hawaii 20 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 8.7 0.713 Hawaii 27 - Nevada Las Vegas 29 -6
Indiana 38 - Michigan 24 12.1 0.754 Indiana 20 - Michigan 15 9
James Madison 34 - Georgia State 17 16.4 0.782 James Madison 38 - Georgia State 7 -14
Kansas 24 - Iowa State 34 10.4 0.757 Kansas 45 - Iowa State 36 -19
Kent State 20 - Ohio 34 14.7 0.817 Kent State 0 - Ohio 41 27
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Arkansas State 17 15.2 0.827 Louisiana Lafayette 55 - Arkansas State 19 -19
Louisiana Monroe 20 - Texas State 24 4.3 0.605 Louisiana Monroe 17 - Texas State 38 17
Louisiana State 34 - Alabama 35 2.7 0.56 Louisiana State 13 - Alabama 42 28
Louisiana Tech 17 - Jacksonville State 27 8.9 0.705 Louisiana Tech 37 - Jacksonville State 44 -3
Memphis 27 - Rice 17 11.7 0.77 Memphis 27 - Rice 20 3
Middle Tennessee 17 - Liberty 24 5.4 0.662 Middle Tennessee 17 - Liberty 37 13
Mississippi 35 - Georgia 34 0 0.501 Mississippi 28 - Georgia 10 -17
Missouri 23 - Oklahoma 24 0.2 0.508 Missouri 30 - Oklahoma 23 -8
NC State 31 - Duke 28 1.3 0.536 NC State 19 - Duke 29 13
New Mexico St 14 - Western Kentucky 34 18.7 0.836 New Mexico St 28 - Western Kentucky 41 -7
North Texas 27 - Army 34 6.1 0.664 North Texas 3 - Army 14 4
Notre Dame 35 - Florida State 10 24.6 0.929 Notre Dame 52 - Florida State 3 -24
Ohio State 49 - Purdue 13 37.4 0.986 Ohio State 45 - Purdue 0 -9
Oregon 42 - Maryland 21 22.7 0.885 Oregon 39 - Maryland 18 0
Oregon State 31 - San Jose State 21 8.1 0.72 Oregon State 13 - San Jose State 24 21
Penn State 31 - Washington 17 12.7 0.827 Penn State 35 - Washington 6 -15
Pittsburgh 35 - Virginia 24 12.9 0.784 Pittsburgh 19 - Virginia 24 16
Rutgers 21 - Minnesota 31 9.3 0.739 Rutgers 29 - Minnesota 16 -23
San Diego State 34 - New Mexico 24 10.4 0.797 San Diego State 16 - New Mexico 21 15
South Florida 24 - Navy 28 3.9 0.592 South Florida 7 - Navy 28 17
Southern Miss 17 - Marshall 28 12.7 0.82 Southern Miss 3 - Marshall 37 23
Tennessee 45 - Miss State 21 23.9 0.897 Tennessee 33 - Miss State 14 5
Texas 38 - Florida 24 11.7 0.761 Texas 49 - Florida 17 -18
Texas Christian 38 - Oklahoma State 31 8.2 0.718 Texas Christian 38 - Oklahoma State 13 -18
Texas El Paso 17 - Kennesaw State 10 4.7 0.655 Texas El Paso 43 - Kennesaw State 35 -1
Texas Tech 35 - Colorado 34 1.3 0.527 Texas Tech 27 - Colorado 41 15
Tulane 41 - Temple 10 29.7 0.975 Tulane 52 - Temple 6 -15
UCLA 24 - Iowa 31 6.6 0.672 UCLA 20 - Iowa 17 -10
Utah 20 - Brigham Young 24 6.5 0.678 Utah 21 - Brigham Young 22 -3
Vanderbilt 24 - South Carolina 34 8.1 0.683 Vanderbilt 7 - South Carolina 28 11
Virginia Tech 28 - Clemson 34 4.2 0.616 Virginia Tech 14 - Clemson 24 4
Wake Forest 24 - California 28 5.2 0.659 Wake Forest 36 - California 46 6
Washington State 45 - Utah State 21 23 0.913 Washington State 49 - Utah State 28 3
Western Michigan 24 - Northern Illinois 20 2.8 0.572 Western Michigan 28 - Northern Illinois 42 18


Number of FBS Games: 50
Number Correct: 37 = 74%
Expected Number Correct: 35.78 = 71.5%
Average Error: 12.3
Average Signed Error: 0.14

WEEK 12

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 20 - Oregon State 21 0.7 0.522 Air Force 28 - Oregon State 0 -29
Alabama 59 - FCS Team 3 57.6 Alabama 52 - FCS Team 7
Arizona 21 - Houston 24 3.2 0.563 Arizona 27 - Houston 3 -27
Arkansas 28 - Texas 41 12.7 0.756 Arkansas 10 - Texas 20 -3
Auburn 31 - Louisiana Monroe 13 18.4 0.868 Auburn 48 - Louisiana Monroe 14 -16
Bowling Green 28 - Western Michigan 21 6.3 0.701 Bowling Green 31 - Western Michigan 13 -11
Brigham Young 35 - Kansas 28 7 0.688 Brigham Young 13 - Kansas 17 11
Buffalo 28 - Ball State 24 5.4 0.616 Buffalo 51 - Ball State 48 1
California 34 - Syracuse 24 8.6 0.711 California 25 - Syracuse 33 18
Charlotte 27 - South Florida 24 1.8 0.537 Charlotte 24 - South Florida 59 38
Colorado 27 - Utah 17 9.2 0.735 Colorado 49 - Utah 24 -15
Colorado State 24 - Wyoming 14 9.4 0.763 Colorado State 24 - Wyoming 10 -4
Florida 34 - Louisiana State 35 3.6 0.584 Florida 27 - Louisiana State 16 -12
Georgia 31 - Tennessee 24 7 0.675 Georgia 31 - Tennessee 17 -7
Georgia Southern 28 - Troy 20 8.4 0.709 Georgia Southern 20 - Troy 28 16
Georgia State 31 - Arkansas State 24 6.2 0.665 Georgia State 20 - Arkansas State 27 14
Illinois 28 - Michigan State 21 6.2 0.67 Illinois 38 - Michigan State 16 -15
Iowa State 28 - Cincinnati 21 7.1 0.707 Iowa State 34 - Cincinnati 17 -10
Jacksonville State 31 - Florida International 17 14.5 0.768 Jacksonville State 34 - Florida International 31 11
Kansas State 34 - Arizona State 24 8.4 0.716 Kansas State 14 - Arizona State 24 20
Kennesaw State 7 - Sam Houston State 20 10.8 0.767 Kennesaw State 17 - Sam Houston State 23 -7
Kentucky 42 - FCS Team 6 36.9 Kentucky 48 - FCS Team 6
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - South Alabama 21 8.5 0.711 Louisiana Lafayette 22 - South Alabama 24 9
Marshall 31 - Coastal Carolina 21 8 0.715 Marshall 31 - Coastal Carolina 19 -2
Maryland 31 - Rutgers 27 5.1 0.606 Maryland 17 - Rutgers 31 18
Massachusetts 14 - Liberty 31 15.2 0.826 Massachusetts 34 - Liberty 35 -16
Memphis 38 - Alabama Birmingham 24 15.2 0.818 Memphis 53 - Alabama Birmingham 18 -21
Miami OH 35 - Kent State 10 25.9 0.961 Miami OH 34 - Kent State 7 -2
Navy 24 - Tulane 28 4.5 0.616 Navy 0 - Tulane 35 31
Nevada Las Vegas 31 - San Diego State 17 14.9 0.816 Nevada Las Vegas 41 - San Diego State 20 -7
New Mexico 27 - Washington State 41 14.1 0.814 New Mexico 38 - Washington State 35 -17
North Carolina 42 - Wake Forest 31 11.9 0.787 North Carolina 31 - Wake Forest 24 4
Northern Illinois 27 - Akron 10 15.2 0.818 Northern Illinois 29 - Akron 16 4
Northwestern 10 - Ohio State 38 26.5 0.951 Northwestern 7 - Ohio State 31 -4
Notre Dame 41 - Virginia 14 25.8 0.94 Notre Dame 35 - Virginia 14 6
Ohio 31 - Eastern Michigan 17 12.3 0.785 Ohio 35 - Eastern Michigan 10 -11
Old Dominion 20 - James Madison 24 5.4 0.606 Old Dominion 32 - James Madison 35 -1
Pittsburgh 28 - Clemson 34 5.9 0.67 Pittsburgh 20 - Clemson 24 -2
Purdue 14 - Penn State 41 25.4 0.962 Purdue 10 - Penn State 49 12
San Jose State 21 - Boise State 31 11.2 0.781 San Jose State 21 - Boise State 42 11
South Carolina 35 - Missouri 20 14.2 0.789 South Carolina 34 - Missouri 30 11
Southern California 34 - Nebraska 24 9.7 0.727 Southern California 28 - Nebraska 20 2
Southern Methodist 41 - Boston College 24 16 0.864 Southern Methodist 38 - Boston College 28 7
Stanford 21 - Louisville 41 19 0.891 Stanford 38 - Louisville 35 -23
Temple 25 - Florida Atlantic 24 2.3 0.549 Temple 18 - Florida Atlantic 15 -2
Texas AM 45 - New Mexico St 10 37.8 0.981 Texas AM 38 - New Mexico St 3 0
Texas San Antonio 35 - North Texas 34 0.1 0.504 Texas San Antonio 48 - North Texas 27 -20
Texas State 34 - Southern Miss 10 23 0.913 Texas State 58 - Southern Miss 3 -31
Toledo 27 - Central Michigan 14 13.3 0.774 Toledo 37 - Central Michigan 10 -14
Tulsa 24 - East Carolina 35 11.5 0.739 Tulsa 31 - East Carolina 38 -4
Utah State 27 - Hawaii 28 3.5 0.599 Utah State 55 - Hawaii 10 -46
Washington 27 - UCLA 24 3.8 0.628 Washington 31 - UCLA 19 -9
West Virginia 34 - Baylor 31 1.9 0.545 West Virginia 35 - Baylor 49 17
Western Kentucky 31 - Louisiana Tech 14 15.7 0.832 Western Kentucky 7 - Louisiana Tech 12 22
Wisconsin 24 - Oregon 31 8.8 0.719 Wisconsin 13 - Oregon 16 -4


Number of FBS Games: 53
Number Correct: 37 = 69.8%
Expected Number Correct: 38.958 = 73.5%
Average Error: 12.73
Average Signed Error: -2.06

WEEK 13

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 20 - Rice 21 1.9 0.54 Alabama Birmingham 40 - Rice 14 -27
Appalachian State 24 - James Madison 31 8.3 0.679 Appalachian State 34 - James Madison 20 -21
Arizona State 28 - Brigham Young 27 1.8 0.546 Arizona State 28 - Brigham Young 23 -4
Arkansas 35 - Louisiana Tech 13 21.8 0.89 Arkansas 35 - Louisiana Tech 14 1
Arkansas State 27 - Louisiana Monroe 24 3 0.573 Arkansas State 28 - Louisiana Monroe 21 -4
Auburn 24 - Texas AM 27 2.7 0.568 Auburn 43 - Texas AM 41 -5
Ball State 21 - Bowling Green 27 5.4 0.643 Ball State 13 - Bowling Green 38 19
Boston College 31 - North Carolina 34 2.2 0.563 Boston College 41 - North Carolina 21 -23
California 35 - Stanford 21 13.4 0.787 California 24 - Stanford 21 11
Central Michigan 24 - Western Michigan 27 3.1 0.591 Central Michigan 16 - Western Michigan 14 -5
Clemson 52 - FCS Team 7 45.4 Clemson 51 - FCS Team 14
Coastal Carolina 28 - Georgia Southern 27 1.2 0.528 Coastal Carolina 6 - Georgia Southern 26 21
Duke 24 - Virginia Tech 27 0.9 0.528 Duke 31 - Virginia Tech 28 -6
Eastern Michigan 28 - Buffalo 27 1 0.525 Eastern Michigan 20 - Buffalo 37 18
Florida 31 - Mississippi 38 7.2 0.682 Florida 24 - Mississippi 17 -14
Florida Atlantic 25 - Charlotte 24 0.6 0.516 Florida Atlantic 27 - Charlotte 39 13
Florida State 38 - FCS Team 10 27.7 Florida State 41 - FCS Team 7
Fresno State 20 - Colorado State 17 3.3 0.576 Fresno State 28 - Colorado State 22 -3
Georgia 52 - Massachusetts 3 48.4 0.992 Georgia 59 - Massachusetts 21 11
Georgia Tech 31 - NC State 21 7.5 0.718 Georgia Tech 30 - NC State 29 9
Houston 24 - Baylor 31 6.4 0.655 Houston 10 - Baylor 20 3
Jacksonville State 24 - Sam Houston State 17 6.9 0.678 Jacksonville State 21 - Sam Houston State 11 -3
Kansas 33 - Colorado 34 0.2 0.508 Kansas 37 - Colorado 21 -17
Kansas State 28 - Cincinnati 21 6.2 0.665 Kansas State 41 - Cincinnati 15 -19
Kennesaw State 14 - Florida International 17 3.4 0.586 Kennesaw State 27 - Florida International 26 -4
Kent State 21 - Akron 27 3.4 0.629 Kent State 17 - Akron 38 15
Liberty 21 - Western Kentucky 24 1.2 0.532 Liberty 38 - Western Kentucky 21 -20
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Troy 17 12.1 0.781 Louisiana Lafayette 51 - Troy 30 -10
Louisiana State 35 - Vanderbilt 24 12.2 0.747 Louisiana State 24 - Vanderbilt 17 4
Louisville 34 - Pittsburgh 27 7 0.682 Louisville 37 - Pittsburgh 9 -21
Maryland 24 - Iowa 34 8.8 0.677 Maryland 13 - Iowa 29 6
Miami FL 45 - Wake Forest 28 17.7 0.889 Miami FL 42 - Wake Forest 14 -11
Miami OH 17 - Northern Illinois 10 6.4 0.681 Miami OH 20 - Northern Illinois 9 -4
Michigan 28 - Northwestern 14 13.3 0.788 Michigan 50 - Northwestern 6 -30
Michigan State 35 - Purdue 24 12.1 0.765 Michigan State 24 - Purdue 17 4
Middle Tennessee 24 - New Mexico St 17 6.3 0.671 Middle Tennessee 21 - New Mexico St 36 22
Minnesota 20 - Penn State 28 8.7 0.753 Minnesota 25 - Penn State 26 -7
Miss State 28 - Missouri 35 5.7 0.653 Miss State 20 - Missouri 39 12
Nebraska 20 - Wisconsin 24 2.7 0.551 Nebraska 44 - Wisconsin 25 -23
Nevada 17 - Air Force 20 2.1 0.547 Nevada 19 - Air Force 22 0
North Texas 35 - East Carolina 31 3.4 0.565 North Texas 28 - East Carolina 40 16
Notre Dame 28 - Army 13 16.1 0.848 Notre Dame 49 - Army 14 -20
Ohio State 35 - Indiana 24 11.2 0.756 Ohio State 38 - Indiana 15 -12
Oklahoma 24 - Alabama 38 14.3 0.782 Oklahoma 24 - Alabama 3 -35
Oklahoma State 34 - Texas Tech 38 3.9 0.592 Oklahoma State 48 - Texas Tech 56 4
Old Dominion 24 - Marshall 21 1.7 0.542 Old Dominion 35 - Marshall 42 10
Oregon State 24 - Washington State 31 6.8 0.664 Oregon State 41 - Washington State 38 -10
Rutgers 26 - Illinois 27 0.3 0.51 Rutgers 31 - Illinois 38 6
San Jose State 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 3.6 0.599 San Jose State 16 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 7
South Carolina 55 - FCS Team 6 48.2 South Carolina 56 - FCS Team 12
South Florida 38 - Tulsa 21 16 0.785 South Florida 63 - Tulsa 30 -16
Southern Miss 13 - South Alabama 31 17.6 0.823 Southern Miss 14 - South Alabama 35 3
Syracuse 31 - Connecticut 21 10.3 0.725 Syracuse 31 - Connecticut 24 3
Tennessee 45 - Texas El Paso 6 38.2 0.992 Tennessee 56 - Texas El Paso 0 -17
Texas 35 - Kentucky 17 19.2 0.825 Texas 31 - Kentucky 14 1
Texas Christian 38 - Arizona 24 12.4 0.751 Texas Christian 49 - Arizona 28 -7
Texas San Antonio 34 - Temple 20 15 0.797 Texas San Antonio 51 - Temple 27 -10
Texas State 34 - Georgia State 17 17.7 0.834 Texas State 44 - Georgia State 52 25
Toledo 21 - Ohio 20 0.8 0.523 Toledo 7 - Ohio 24 18
UCLA 28 - Southern California 31 3.4 0.602 UCLA 13 - Southern California 19 3
Utah 20 - Iowa State 27 7.1 0.708 Utah 28 - Iowa State 31 -4
Utah State 28 - San Diego State 24 4.7 0.613 Utah State 41 - San Diego State 20 -17
Virginia 28 - Southern Methodist 35 8.4 0.734 Virginia 7 - Southern Methodist 33 19
West Virginia 33 - Central Florida 34 0.4 0.513 West Virginia 31 - Central Florida 21 -11
Wyoming 17 - Boise State 34 16.5 0.871 Wyoming 13 - Boise State 17 -13


Number of FBS Games: 62
Number Correct: 40 = 64.5%
Expected Number Correct: 41.837 = 67.4%
Average Error: 11.88
Average Signed Error: -2.73

WEEK 14

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Toledo 24 8.2 0.736 Akron 21 - Toledo 14 -14
Alabama 38 - Auburn 21 17 0.803 Alabama 28 - Auburn 14 3
Arizona 24 - Arizona State 34 8.9 0.705 Arizona 7 - Arizona State 49 32
Arkansas State 24 - Old Dominion 27 4.1 0.605 Arkansas State 32 - Old Dominion 40 5
Army 31 - Texas San Antonio 17 12.9 0.782 Army 29 - Texas San Antonio 24 9
Baylor 34 - Kansas 31 1.8 0.547 Baylor 45 - Kansas 17 -25
Boise State 35 - Oregon State 17 17.9 0.837 Boise State 34 - Oregon State 18 2
Boston College 28 - Pittsburgh 27 2.6 0.566 Boston College 34 - Pittsburgh 23 -10
Bowling Green 15 - Miami OH 14 0.7 0.523 Bowling Green 12 - Miami OH 28 17
Brigham Young 28 - Houston 13 14.6 0.781 Brigham Young 30 - Houston 18 3
Buffalo 38 - Kent State 17 19.6 0.868 Buffalo 43 - Kent State 7 -15
Central Florida 31 - Utah 24 5.6 0.644 Central Florida 14 - Utah 28 21
Charlotte 27 - Alabama Birmingham 28 0 0.501 Charlotte 29 - Alabama Birmingham 27 -3
Cincinnati 30 - Texas Christian 31 0.2 0.508 Cincinnati 13 - Texas Christian 20 6
Clemson 32 - South Carolina 31 0.4 0.512 Clemson 14 - South Carolina 17 4
Colorado 41 - Oklahoma State 28 13.1 0.785 Colorado 52 - Oklahoma State 0 -39
Colorado State 31 - Utah State 24 6.8 0.667 Colorado State 42 - Utah State 37 2
East Carolina 24 - Navy 27 2.8 0.553 East Carolina 20 - Navy 34 11
Florida International 24 - Middle Tennessee 14 8.5 0.715 Florida International 35 - Middle Tennessee 24 -1
Florida State 20 - Florida 34 13.2 0.775 Florida State 11 - Florida 31 6
Georgia 38 - Georgia Tech 17 21.1 0.905 Georgia 44 - Georgia Tech 42 19
Georgia Southern 28 - Appalachian State 24 4.4 0.599 Georgia Southern 29 - Appalachian State 20 -5
Georgia State 28 - Coastal Carolina 27 2.4 0.551 Georgia State 27 - Coastal Carolina 48 22
Hawaii 28 - New Mexico 27 0.2 0.507 Hawaii 38 - New Mexico 30 -7
Indiana 45 - Purdue 17 28.6 0.945 Indiana 66 - Purdue 0 -38
Iowa 28 - Nebraska 20 9.3 0.703 Iowa 13 - Nebraska 10 5
Iowa State 31 - Kansas State 27 3.5 0.585 Iowa State 29 - Kansas State 21 -4
James Madison 28 - Marshall 24 4.8 0.611 James Madison 33 - Marshall 35 6
Kentucky 27 - Louisville 28 1.4 0.53 Kentucky 14 - Louisville 41 26
Louisiana Monroe 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 12.8 0.789 Louisiana Monroe 23 - Louisiana Lafayette 37 3
Louisiana State 31 - Oklahoma 27 4.2 0.59 Louisiana State 37 - Oklahoma 17 -16
Louisiana Tech 21 - Kennesaw State 10 10.1 0.765 Louisiana Tech 33 - Kennesaw State 0 -22
Massachusetts 20 - Connecticut 31 11 0.755 Massachusetts 42 - Connecticut 47 -6
Michigan State 28 - Rutgers 27 0.9 0.524 Michigan State 14 - Rutgers 41 28
Mississippi 48 - Miss State 21 24.5 0.919 Mississippi 26 - Miss State 14 15
Missouri 34 - Arkansas 27 6.1 0.655 Missouri 28 - Arkansas 21 0
Nevada Las Vegas 34 - Nevada 17 15.7 0.813 Nevada Las Vegas 38 - Nevada 14 -7
New Mexico St 24 - Texas El Paso 21 3.5 0.591 New Mexico St 35 - Texas El Paso 42 10
North Carolina 35 - NC State 31 5.2 0.64 North Carolina 30 - NC State 35 9
Northern Illinois 21 - Central Michigan 10 13.3 0.779 Northern Illinois 24 - Central Michigan 16 3
Northwestern 20 - Illinois 31 10.9 0.74 Northwestern 28 - Illinois 38 -1
Ohio 34 - Ball State 14 18.4 0.837 Ohio 42 - Ball State 21 -1
Ohio State 34 - Michigan 17 17.4 0.83 Ohio State 10 - Michigan 13 20
Oregon 34 - Washington 17 16.1 0.863 Oregon 49 - Washington 21 -11
Penn State 38 - Maryland 17 22.8 0.904 Penn State 44 - Maryland 7 -16
Rice 21 - South Florida 24 2.2 0.543 Rice 35 - South Florida 28 -10
Sam Houston State 18 - Liberty 17 0.1 0.504 Sam Houston State 20 - Liberty 18 -1
San Diego State 14 - Air Force 17 4.3 0.629 San Diego State 20 - Air Force 31 8
San Jose State 27 - Stanford 24 2.4 0.562 San Jose State 34 - Stanford 31 0
South Alabama 27 - Texas State 24 2.2 0.543 South Alabama 38 - Texas State 45 10
Southern California 24 - Notre Dame 35 10.7 0.759 Southern California 35 - Notre Dame 49 3
Southern Methodist 38 - California 24 14.8 0.832 Southern Methodist 38 - California 6 -18
Syracuse 31 - Miami FL 38 8.4 0.712 Syracuse 42 - Miami FL 38 -11
Temple 24 - North Texas 31 6 0.651 Temple 17 - North Texas 24 0
Texas AM 27 - Texas 34 6.4 0.662 Texas AM 7 - Texas 17 3
Texas Tech 38 - West Virginia 35 3.9 0.599 Texas Tech 52 - West Virginia 15 -34
Troy 31 - Southern Miss 13 18.4 0.863 Troy 52 - Southern Miss 20 -14
Tulane 35 - Memphis 21 14.6 0.792 Tulane 24 - Memphis 34 24
Tulsa 28 - Florida Atlantic 27 0.8 0.522 Tulsa 16 - Florida Atlantic 63 48
UCLA 28 - Fresno State 17 10.3 0.742 UCLA 20 - Fresno State 13 4
Vanderbilt 24 - Tennessee 31 9.7 0.733 Vanderbilt 23 - Tennessee 36 6
Virginia Tech 31 - Virginia 20 10.9 0.763 Virginia Tech 37 - Virginia 17 -9
Wake Forest 28 - Duke 31 2.9 0.619 Wake Forest 17 - Duke 23 3
Washington State 31 - Wyoming 20 12.6 0.771 Washington State 14 - Wyoming 15 12
Western Kentucky 25 - Jacksonville State 24 0.9 0.523 Western Kentucky 19 - Jacksonville State 17 -1
Western Michigan 28 - Eastern Michigan 24 6.2 0.714 Western Michigan 26 - Eastern Michigan 18 -4
Wisconsin 25 - Minnesota 24 1.4 0.529 Wisconsin 7 - Minnesota 24 18


Number of FBS Games: 67
Number Correct: 49 = 73.1%
Expected Number Correct: 45.91 = 68.5%
Average Error: 11.47
Average Signed Error: 1.23

WEEK 15

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 27 - Iowa State 28 2.1 0.553 Arizona State 45 - Iowa State 19 -27
Army 20 - Tulane 21 3 0.573 Army 35 - Tulane 14 -22
Boise State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 8.3 0.733 Boise State 21 - Nevada Las Vegas 7 -4
Jacksonville State 24 - Western Kentucky 20 4.6 0.621 Jacksonville State 52 - Western Kentucky 12 -36
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Marshall 24 6.5 0.715 Louisiana Lafayette 3 - Marshall 31 35
Miami OH 16 - Ohio 17 0.7 0.523 Miami OH 3 - Ohio 38 34
Oregon 29 - Penn State 28 0.8 0.528 Oregon 45 - Penn State 37 -7
Southern Methodist 34 - Clemson 31 0.9 0.527 Southern Methodist 31 - Clemson 34 6
Texas 32 - Georgia 31 1.5 0.533 Texas 19 - Georgia 22 4


Number of FBS Games: 9
Number Correct: 4 = 44.4%
Expected Number Correct: 5.306 = 58.9%
Average Error: 19.44
Average Signed Error: -1.89