Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
Week 15 (Through Games of 12/5/15)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
11 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
25.14 |
2 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
12 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
22.81 |
3 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
11 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
20.8 |
4 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
13 - 0 |
9 - 0 |
19.56 |
5 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
11 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
17.64 |
6 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
11 - 2 |
9 - 1 |
17.03 |
7 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
12 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
16.32 |
8 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
16.02 |
9 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
15.85 |
10 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
10 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
15.21 |
11 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
9 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
14.53 |
12 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
10 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
13.96 |
13 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
13.52 |
14 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
12 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
13.46 |
15 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
13.33 |
16 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
12 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
12.91 |
17 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
9 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
12.86 |
18 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
12.79 |
19 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
12.57 |
20 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
12.36 |
21 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
8 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
11.89 |
22 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
11.55 |
23 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
11.41 |
24 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
10.9 |
25 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
10.8 |
26 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
9 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
10.73 |
27 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
10.32 |
28 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
8 - 5 |
6 - 4 |
10.28 |
29 |
W Kentucky |
CUSA-E |
11 - 2 |
9 - 0 |
9.66 |
30 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
9.62 |
31 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
9.36 |
32 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
10 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
8.85 |
33 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
7.93 |
34 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
7.88 |
35 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
10 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
7.64 |
36 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
8 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
7.21 |
37 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
7.17 |
38 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
9 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
7.12 |
39 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
7 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
6.93 |
40 |
BYU |
IND |
9 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
6.7 |
41 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
6.29 |
42 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
5.91 |
43 |
California |
PAC12-N |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
5.89 |
44 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
5.85 |
45 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
5.74 |
46 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
5.74 |
47 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
5.52 |
48 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
5.38 |
49 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
6 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
5.36 |
50 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
5.14 |
51 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
10 - 3 |
9 - 0 |
4.62 |
52 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
3.94 |
53 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
10 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
3.43 |
54 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
3.12 |
55 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
2.9 |
56 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
6 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
2.72 |
57 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
2.7 |
58 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
2.5 |
59 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
9 - 4 |
7 - 2 |
2.37 |
60 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
8 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
2.29 |
61 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
2.26 |
62 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
1.26 |
63 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
0.89 |
64 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
0.77 |
65 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
9 - 3 |
8 - 0 |
0.4 |
66 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
0.37 |
67 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
0.32 |
68 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
0.28 |
69 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
0.15 |
70 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
0.14 |
71 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
8 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
-0.49 |
72 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-0.52 |
73 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
5 - 7 |
1 - 7 |
-1.41 |
74 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
3 - 9 |
0 - 8 |
-1.51 |
75 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-1.58 |
76 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
3 - 9 |
2 - 7 |
-1.7 |
77 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-1.72 |
78 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
6 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-2.19 |
79 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
-2.3 |
80 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-2.5 |
81 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
7 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
-2.92 |
82 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-3.04 |
83 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
-3.53 |
84 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-4.08 |
85 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-4.25 |
86 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-4.4 |
87 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-4.54 |
88 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-4.64 |
89 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
6 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-5.77 |
90 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
4 - 9 |
1 - 8 |
-6.24 |
91 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-6.31 |
92 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-7.14 |
93 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-8.33 |
94 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
4 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
-8.38 |
95 |
Troy |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-8.75 |
96 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-8.79 |
97 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-9.02 |
98 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-10.41 |
99 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-10.53 |
100 |
Massachusetts |
MAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-12.91 |
101 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-13.56 |
102 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-13.57 |
103 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-14.01 |
104 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
2 - 10 |
0 - 9 |
-14.23 |
105 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-16.41 |
106 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-16.64 |
107 |
Idaho |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-17.39 |
108 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-17.47 |
109 |
Army |
IND |
2 - 9 |
1 - 1 |
-17.62 |
110 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-17.73 |
111 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
2 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-18.08 |
112 |
ULL |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-18.1 |
113 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-18.19 |
114 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-18.38 |
115 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-19.06 |
116 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-20.01 |
117 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-20.55 |
118 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-20.56 |
119 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
0 - 12 |
0 - 9 |
-20.82 |
120 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-21.49 |
121 |
Texas St |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-21.61 |
122 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-21.75 |
123 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-22.09 |
124 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
0 - 12 |
0 - 8 |
-23.36 |
125 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
1 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-23.55 |
126 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
3 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-25.73 |
127 |
ULM |
SUN |
2 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-25.96 |
128 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-29.85 |