Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2017 Week 11 (11/5/2017)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
8 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
27.78 |
2 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
26.09 |
3 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
26.09 |
4 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
25.89 |
5 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
8 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
23.04 |
6 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
22.94 |
7 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
7 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
20.17 |
8 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
19.44 |
9 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
19.27 |
10 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
18.95 |
11 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
8 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
18.54 |
12 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
18.07 |
13 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
7 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
18.03 |
14 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
6 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
17.91 |
15 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
7 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
17.28 |
16 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
8 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
17.21 |
17 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
15.9 |
18 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
14.02 |
19 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
6 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
13.99 |
20 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
8 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
13.35 |
21 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
7 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
13.3 |
22 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
7 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
13.09 |
23 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
12.05 |
24 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
11.78 |
25 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
11.38 |
26 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
4 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
11.11 |
27 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
5 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
10.1 |
28 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
9.18 |
29 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
8.82 |
30 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
6 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
8.49 |
31 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
7.83 |
32 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
7.69 |
33 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
6 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
7.68 |
34 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
7 - 2 |
5 - 0 |
7.38 |
35 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
7.01 |
36 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
6.75 |
37 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
6.69 |
38 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
8 - 1 |
5 - 0 |
6.34 |
39 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
4 - 5 |
1 - 4 |
5.99 |
40 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
6 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
5.49 |
41 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
5 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
5.37 |
42 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
3 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
5.06 |
43 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
5 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
4.28 |
44 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
4.19 |
45 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
6 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
3.38 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
4 - 5 |
1 - 5 |
3.37 |
47 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
3.03 |
48 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
6 - 3 |
5 - 0 |
2.91 |
49 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
2.89 |
50 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
4 - 5 |
1 - 5 |
2.68 |
51 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
2.51 |
52 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
2.21 |
53 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
5 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
2.13 |
54 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
5 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
1.8 |
55 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
8 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
1.61 |
56 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
3 - 6 |
0 - 6 |
1.54 |
57 |
California |
PAC12-N |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
1.36 |
58 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
5 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
1.31 |
59 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
6 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
1.26 |
60 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
7 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
0.83 |
61 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
4 - 5 |
1 - 5 |
0.72 |
62 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
0.63 |
63 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
0.03 |
64 |
Army |
IND |
7 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-0.68 |
65 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
-0.89 |
66 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
6 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
-1.04 |
67 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
6 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
-1.46 |
68 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
6 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
-1.69 |
69 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
-1.76 |
70 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-1.89 |
71 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-2.05 |
72 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
3 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-2.1 |
73 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-2.2 |
74 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
3 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-2.56 |
75 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
4 - 5 |
0 - 5 |
-3.14 |
76 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-3.17 |
77 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-3.53 |
78 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-3.82 |
79 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-4.41 |
80 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
1 - 8 |
0 - 6 |
-4.5 |
81 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-4.73 |
82 |
Troy |
SUN |
7 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
-4.92 |
83 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
3 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-5.65 |
84 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-5.81 |
85 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
1 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-5.89 |
86 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
4 - 5 |
0 - 5 |
-6.11 |
87 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
4 - 5 |
1 - 4 |
-6.42 |
88 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
3 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-7.66 |
89 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
4 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
-7.71 |
90 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
6 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
-7.93 |
91 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
2 - 7 |
0 - 0 |
-7.96 |
92 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
5 - 4 |
4 - 1 |
-7.98 |
93 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-8.03 |
94 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
3 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-8.14 |
95 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
2 - 7 |
0 - 6 |
-8.41 |
96 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
5 - 4 |
4 - 1 |
-8.91 |
97 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-9.16 |
98 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-9.55 |
99 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
6 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
-9.82 |
100 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-9.93 |
101 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-10.57 |
102 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
5 - 3 |
2 - 3 |
-10.68 |
103 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
1 - 8 |
0 - 6 |
-10.78 |
104 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
-11.12 |
105 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
1 - 8 |
1 - 4 |
-11.92 |
106 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
5 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
-12.24 |
107 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-12.83 |
108 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
3 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-13.18 |
109 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-13.19 |
110 |
BYU |
IND |
2 - 8 |
1 - 0 |
-13.77 |
111 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
2 - 7 |
2 - 3 |
-13.91 |
112 |
ULM |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
-14.58 |
113 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-14.97 |
114 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
2 - 7 |
1 - 4 |
-15.21 |
115 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-15.4 |
116 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
-16.02 |
117 |
Idaho |
SUN |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-16.16 |
118 |
ULL |
SUN |
4 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-18.62 |
119 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
3 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-19.02 |
120 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
3 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
-19.47 |
121 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
1 - 8 |
0 - 6 |
-20.04 |
122 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
1 - 8 |
0 - 5 |
-20.19 |
123 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
0 - 8 |
0 - 4 |
-22.3 |
124 |
Texas St |
SUN |
2 - 7 |
1 - 4 |
-23.08 |
125 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
1 - 8 |
1 - 4 |
-23.63 |
126 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
2 - 7 |
1 - 4 |
-25.25 |
127 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
1 - 8 |
1 - 4 |
-26.36 |
128 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
0 - 9 |
0 - 5 |
-28.69 |
129 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
2 - 7 |
0 - 5 |
-30.56 |
130 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
1 - 9 |
0 - 5 |
-30.89 |