Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2018 Week 6 (through games of 9/29/2018)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
5 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
28.14 |
2 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
5 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
23.94 |
3 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
5 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
23.7 |
4 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
5 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
21.87 |
5 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
19.7 |
6 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
5 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
19.02 |
7 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
5 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
17.91 |
8 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
4 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
16.99 |
9 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
4 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
16.32 |
10 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
16.09 |
11 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
5 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15.69 |
12 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
4 - 0 |
2 - 0 |
15.49 |
13 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
5 - 0 |
3 - 0 |
15.21 |
14 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
14.04 |
15 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
4 - 1 |
2 - 1 |
13.56 |
16 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
12.68 |
17 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
4 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
11.88 |
18 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
4 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
11.5 |
19 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
4 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
11.18 |
20 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
10.9 |
21 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
4 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
10.79 |
22 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
2 - 2 |
1 - 2 |
10.65 |
23 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
3 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
10.54 |
24 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
3 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
10.34 |
25 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
4 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
10.32 |
26 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
3 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
10.18 |
27 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
9.43 |
28 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
9.2 |
29 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
8.9 |
30 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
7.93 |
31 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
4 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
7.2 |
32 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
3 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
7.06 |
33 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
7.04 |
34 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
1 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
6.77 |
35 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
6.33 |
36 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
3 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
6.2 |
37 |
Army |
IND |
3 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
6.02 |
38 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
5.32 |
39 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
2 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
4.99 |
40 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
4.84 |
41 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
1 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
4.79 |
42 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
3 - 2 |
2 - 1 |
4.53 |
43 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
4 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
4.44 |
44 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
4.11 |
45 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
4 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
3.79 |
46 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
3 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
3.7 |
47 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
4 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
3.52 |
48 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
3 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
3.49 |
49 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
3 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
3.14 |
50 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
2 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
3.05 |
51 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
2 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
2.88 |
52 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
4 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
2.78 |
53 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
3 - 2 |
1 - 2 |
2.62 |
54 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
2.43 |
55 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
2.39 |
56 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
1.87 |
57 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
1.63 |
58 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
3 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
1.34 |
59 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
4 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
1.31 |
60 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
5 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
0.94 |
61 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
3 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
0.75 |
62 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
3 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
0.52 |
63 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
0.27 |
64 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
-0.13 |
65 |
BYU |
IND |
3 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-0.2 |
66 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-0.65 |
67 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
3 - 2 |
0 - 2 |
-0.91 |
68 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-1.61 |
69 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-1.94 |
70 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-2.76 |
71 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
4 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
-3.15 |
72 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
2 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
-3.73 |
73 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
2 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
-4.29 |
74 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-4.31 |
75 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-4.32 |
76 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
3 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-4.62 |
77 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
2 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
-4.64 |
78 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
-4.72 |
79 |
California |
PAC12-N |
3 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
-4.75 |
80 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
2 - 3 |
2 - 0 |
-4.83 |
81 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
2 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-5.13 |
82 |
Troy |
SUN |
4 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
-5.26 |
83 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
0 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-5.43 |
84 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
2 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-5.65 |
85 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
2 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
-5.75 |
86 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
2 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
-5.81 |
87 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
-6.17 |
88 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-6.35 |
89 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
1 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-6.46 |
90 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
1 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
-6.46 |
91 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
3 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-6.64 |
92 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
3 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
-6.95 |
93 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
2 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-6.98 |
94 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
0 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
-7.1 |
95 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
5 - 1 |
2 - 0 |
-7.12 |
96 |
Liberty |
IND |
2 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
-7.65 |
97 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
2 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
-7.8 |
98 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
2 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-7.95 |
99 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
1 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
-8.44 |
100 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
2 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-8.62 |
101 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
1 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-8.83 |
102 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
1 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-9.28 |
103 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
2 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
-9.76 |
104 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
1 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
-10.12 |
105 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
1 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-10.44 |
106 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
3 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
-10.54 |
107 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
1 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
-12.11 |
108 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-12.29 |
109 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
2 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-12.41 |
110 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
3 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
-13.4 |
111 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
2 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-13.45 |
112 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
1 - 4 |
1 - 1 |
-13.77 |
113 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
3 - 2 |
1 - 1 |
-14.1 |
114 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
2 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-14.88 |
115 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
0 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-15.04 |
116 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
1 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
-15.34 |
117 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
1 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
-15.84 |
118 |
ULL |
SUN |
1 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
-16.3 |
119 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
1 - 4 |
1 - 1 |
-17.9 |
120 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
2 - 4 |
1 - 0 |
-18.32 |
121 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
2 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-18.55 |
122 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
1 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-19.42 |
123 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
1 - 4 |
0 - 2 |
-21.96 |
124 |
ULM |
SUN |
2 - 3 |
0 - 2 |
-22.46 |
125 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
1 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-23.44 |
126 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
1 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-23.51 |
127 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
2 - 3 |
1 - 1 |
-23.67 |
128 |
New Mexico St |
IND |
1 - 4 |
0 - 0 |
-25.53 |
129 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
0 - 5 |
0 - 1 |
-28.42 |
130 |
Texas St |
SUN |
1 - 3 |
0 - 1 |
-28.77 |