Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Basketball Predictions

ARCHIVED PREVIOUS YEAR PREDICTIONS

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CURRENT WEEK PREDICTIONS

Note: I'm going with a home court advantage of 3 points this year.

Note, as usual, that for bracket style tournaments since they were not scheduled when the season started, they will not appear in the single game list below. If you want to make your own predictions, just compare team rating points on the main rating page and add 3 points to the home team, if there is one.

GAMES OF 12-16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Central Arkansas 71 - The Citadel 66 0.601
College of Charleston 77 - Wofford 67 0.695
Grambling State 69 - Southeast Louisiana 67 0.56
Lipscomb 94 - Unranked 50
Louisiana Tech 72 - Grand Canyon 73 0.504
Marshall 92 - Unranked 55
Maryland Eastern Shore 83 - Unranked 63
Middle Tennessee 75 - Cal Baptist 71 0.641
New Mexico State 73 - Southern Utah 74 0.524
Northern Colorado 76 - Air Force 66 0.77
Northern Iowa 75 - Montana 69 0.656
Portland 88 - Unranked 60
Rice 78 - Alcorn State 62 0.882
Sam Houston State 95 - Unranked 56
Texas Christian 77 - South Alabama 67 0.768
Texas El Paso 77 - Tarleton State 61 0.813
Texas Tech 87 - Oral Roberts 60 0.96
Utah Tech 87 - Unranked 59

GAMES OF 12-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas Pine Bluff 85 - Unranked 68
Auburn 97 - Georgia State 57 0.996
Boise State 88 - Texas Southern 62 0.96
Cal Poly 82 - Denver 71 0.772
Charlotte 76 - West Georgia 61 0.89
Colorado State 74 - Radford 68 0.683
Dayton 81 - Nevada Las Vegas 67 0.842
DePaul 72 - Saint Johns 79 0.676
Duke 80 - George Mason 61 0.908
East Carolina 74 - Florida International 67 0.728
Florida State 81 - Winthrop 69 0.873
Georgia Southern 74 - Gardner Webb 71 0.588
High Point 93 - Unranked 53
Howard 68 - Drexel 72 0.645
Kansas State 67 - Drake 74 0.701
Liberty 96 - Unranked 48
Louisiana State 89 - Stetson 59 0.974
Maryland 89 - Saint Francis Penn 58 0.965
Mississippi 83 - Southern 61 0.932
Mississippi State 85 - Central Michigan 63 0.862
Missouri 83 - Jacksonville State 65 0.901
North Carolina 78 - Florida 84 0.682
North Carolina AT 69 - Coastal Carolina 72 0.611
North Carolina Central 87 - Unranked 57
Oakland 60 - Michigan State 82 0.854
Ohio State 85 - Valparaiso 66 0.856
Oregon State 84 - Sacramento State 53 0.968
Quinnipiac 74 - Holy Cross 67 0.67
Robert Morris 68 - Towson 66 0.558
Siena 59 - Saint Bonaventure 75 0.888
South Carolina 68 - Clemson 74 0.689
Southern Miss 66 - Lamar 72 0.625
Stanford 77 - Merrimack 62 0.875
Stony Brook 65 - Marist 70 0.641
Tennessee 91 - Western Carolina 51 0.996
Troy 93 - Unranked 52
UCLA 93 - Prairie View 55 0.976
UL Monroe 71 - Houston Christian 67 0.688
UNC Asheville 75 - North Florida 77 0.546
UNC Greensboro 90 - Unranked 51
Utah 86 - Florida AM 63 0.942
Utah State 79 - UC San Diego 68 0.775
Villanova 74 - Seton Hall 64 0.719
Wake Forest 72 - James Madison 69 0.598
Western Illinois 69 - Tennessee Tech 68 0.512
Western Kentucky 77 - Seattle 68 0.774
Wichita State 81 - UMKC 62 0.908

GAMES OF 12-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 84 - Alabama AM 63 0.93
Arizona 85 - Samford 75 0.744
Binghamton 71 - Mercyhurst 64 0.721
Bradley 71 - San Francisco 73 0.579
Campbell 66 - Longwood 71 0.621
Chattanooga 92 - Unranked 55
Connecticut 81 - Xavier 68 0.77
Dartmouth 74 - Le Moyne 70 0.616
East Tennessee State 71 - Elon 70 0.526
East Texas AM 65 - Abilene Christian 75 0.757
Fairfield 66 - Central Connecticut State 71 0.67
George Washington 74 - Lafayette 65 0.757
Georgetown 72 - Creighton 76 0.631
Georgia Tech 80 - UMBC 69 0.777
Gonzaga 92 - Nicholls State 59 0.964
Green Bay 86 - Unranked 62
Hampton 88 - Unranked 56
Houston 89 - Toledo 60 0.935
Idaho State 70 - Utah Valley 69 0.516
Illinois State 81 - Northern Illinois 62 0.898
Indiana State 73 - Murray State 74 0.517
La Salle 83 - Fairleigh Dickinson 68 0.861
LIU Brooklyn 66 - Mt St Marys 71 0.667
Loyola Ill 84 - Canisius 56 0.946
Loyola Marymount 69 - UC Santa Barbara 72 0.568
Marquette 81 - Butler 68 0.786
Massachusetts 71 - Northeastern 75 0.603
Mcneese State 94 - Unranked 50
Missouri State 93 - Unranked 54
New Mexico 74 - Virginia Commonwealth 75 0.522
North Dakota 63 - Alabama 98 0.971
North Texas 83 - Mississippi Valley State 48 0.975
Northern Kentucky 72 - Detroit 65 0.706
Ohio 73 - Austin Peay 66 0.735
Oklahoma 75 - Michigan 77 0.563
Oklahoma State 81 - Tarleton State 61 0.914
Pacific 74 - Portland State 70 0.62
Portland 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 74 0.618
Presbyterian 88 - Unranked 58
Queens 73 - Mercer 74 0.511
Sacred Heart 75 - Albany 71 0.604
Saint Josephs 75 - American 65 0.746
Saint Louis 75 - Wofford 69 0.637
Santa Clara 81 - Kennesaw St 69 0.791
South Carolina Upstate 71 - South Carolina State 74 0.581
South Florida 77 - Bethune Cookman 65 0.814
Southern California 79 - Cal State Northridge 68 0.75
Temple 73 - Davidson 74 0.533
Texas AM CC 92 - Unranked 55
Texas Arlington 77 - Evansville 67 0.77
UC Davis 77 - Idaho 66 0.776
UC Riverside 74 - Montana State 71 0.57
UL Lafayette 64 - Appalachian State 72 0.731
UMass Lowell 78 - Stonehill 68 0.764
UNC Wilmington 73 - Florida Gulf Coast 68 0.627
UT Rio Grande Valley 77 - Southern Utah 76 0.507
Vanderbilt 89 - The Citadel 56 0.955
Vermont 66 - Miami OH 68 0.571
Virginia 66 - Memphis 76 0.769
Wagner 67 - Manhattan 64 0.624
Washington 72 - Washington State 76 0.623
Weber State 90 - Unranked 56
William and Mary 72 - Richmond 75 0.606
Wright State 76 - Youngstown State 68 0.68

GAMES OF 12-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas Little Rock 69 - SIU Edwardsville 67 0.53
Belmont 72 - UC Irvine 77 0.669
Cleveland State 65 - Oakland 68 0.544
Coastal Carolina 85 - Unranked 56
Georgia 87 - Buffalo 59 0.956
Grambling State 73 - Delaware State 67 0.643
Grand Canyon 86 - Chicago State 57 0.972
Incarnate Word 87 - Unranked 57
Lindenwood 70 - Tennessee Tech 69 0.544
Middle Tennessee 70 - Lipscomb 71 0.527
Morehead State 73 - Tennessee Martin 67 0.661
New Mexico State 90 - Unranked 56
Norfolk State 77 - Alabama State 71 0.659
North Alabama 78 - Charleston Southern 67 0.749
Pepperdine 74 - Long Beach State 69 0.613
Rice 91 - Unranked 53
Saint Francis Penn 87 - Unranked 59
Saint Marys 79 - Merrimack 56 0.925
SE Missouri State 72 - Eastern Illinois 68 0.601
South Dakota State 95 - Unranked 52
Southern Indiana 77 - Tennessee State 68 0.763
Texas 89 - New Orleans 59 0.963
Texas San Antonio 93 - Unranked 58
UNC Asheville 91 - Unranked 55
Utah Tech 73 - South Dakota 78 0.666
Western Carolina 86 - Unranked 59
Wyoming 78 - Bellarmine 63 0.871

GAMES OF 12-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Brigham Young 86 - Florida AM 62 0.931
Dayton 73 - Cincinnati 71 0.568
Delaware State 71 - Alabama State 76 0.649
IPFW 94 - Unranked 55
Loyola Marymount 71 - Southern 67 0.594
Norfolk State 74 - Grambling State 68 0.63
North Carolina Central 68 - Longwood 71 0.584
North Dakota 87 - Unranked 61
Northwestern State 87 - Unranked 55
Pennsylvania 68 - Rider 67 0.514
Providence 70 - Saint Johns 76 0.665
Radford 91 - Unranked 52
Saint Peters 70 - Delaware 71 0.509
Seattle 76 - Illinois Chicago 70 0.641
Siena 71 - Holy Cross 66 0.641
Southeast Louisiana 86 - Unranked 55
Stephen F Austin 86 - Unranked 52
Texas AM 90 - Houston Christian 53 0.997
Texas El Paso 80 - Jackson State 63 0.836
Tulane 91 - Unranked 56
Western Michigan 70 - Valparaiso 75 0.608
Yale 77 - Akron 75 0.55

GAMES OF 12-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 79 - Texas Southern 67 0.797
Alabama AM 62 - Samford 87 0.96
Arizona 87 - Central Michigan 66 0.879
Arkansas 91 - North Carolina AT 59 0.971
Arkansas Little Rock 73 - Eastern Illinois 65 0.685
Arkansas State 79 - Coastal Carolina 62 0.864
Ball State 70 - Evansville 69 0.526
Boise State 82 - Air Force 58 0.926
Boston College 68 - Southern Methodist 80 0.793
Bowling Green 69 - Saint Thomas 78 0.748
Bradley 87 - Canisius 57 0.959
Butler 70 - Connecticut 78 0.697
Cal State Bakersfield 76 - Portland State 70 0.663
Cal State Northridge 82 - Chicago State 61 0.937
Central Connecticut State 71 - Quinnipiac 65 0.68
Central Florida 79 - Jacksonville 66 0.822
Clemson 78 - Wake Forest 64 0.847
Colorado 90 - Bellarmine 58 0.977
Coppin State 68 - Navy 73 0.646
Creighton 77 - Villanova 71 0.64
Dartmouth 65 - Vermont 69 0.62
Davidson 81 - Bethune Cookman 62 0.879
Denver 70 - Northern Colorado 79 0.751
Drake 86 - Green Bay 55 0.964
Drexel 65 - Penn State 80 0.882
Duquesne 60 - UC Irvine 75 0.873
East Carolina 73 - Gardner Webb 68 0.662
Eastern Kentucky 73 - Jacksonville State 71 0.555
Eastern Michigan 66 - Wright State 78 0.817
Eastern Washington 91 - Unranked 58
Elon 69 - UNC Greensboro 67 0.543
Florida 92 - North Florida 68 0.932
Florida International 76 - IUPUI 66 0.818
Florida State 76 - Louisville 75 0.521
Fordham 77 - Albany 68 0.766
Fresno State 73 - Cal Baptist 76 0.616
Georgia State 68 - Troy 77 0.812
Georgia Tech 62 - Duke 82 0.922
Gonzaga 92 - Bucknell 58 0.964
Harvard 63 - Furman 76 0.848
Houston 85 - Texas AM CC 58 0.958
Indiana 83 - Chattanooga 66 0.883
Indiana State 95 - Unranked 57
La Salle 93 - Unranked 55
Liberty 79 - Texas Arlington 65 0.888
Lindenwood 69 - Western Illinois 66 0.593
LIU Brooklyn 68 - Lehigh 73 0.637
Louisiana Tech 95 - Unranked 50
Loyola MD 70 - Hampton 69 0.501
Marist 73 - UMBC 68 0.632
Massachusetts 65 - Arizona State 85 0.915
Memphis 79 - Mississippi State 75 0.592
Miami 80 - Mt St Marys 67 0.838
Michigan State 85 - Florida Atlantic 72 0.799
Minnesota 82 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.94
Mississippi 87 - Queens 61 0.95
Monmouth 71 - Fairfield 72 0.501
Morehead State 75 - Tennessee State 69 0.691
Nevada 78 - Colorado State 67 0.76
Nevada Las Vegas 76 - UC Riverside 70 0.661
Northern Kentucky 72 - South Carolina State 65 0.68
Northwestern 76 - DePaul 69 0.672
Ohio State 76 - Kentucky 83 0.674
Omaha 73 - Cal Poly 78 0.645
Pacific 73 - Idaho 69 0.632
Pepperdine 70 - UC Davis 73 0.559
Pittsburgh 85 - Sam Houston State 66 0.849
Portland 70 - Lafayette 72 0.574
Presbyterian 74 - Manhattan 70 0.631
Purdue 72 - Auburn 82 0.762
Richmond 77 - Virginia Military Institute 64 0.843
Robert Morris 72 - Saint Francis Penn 66 0.695
Rutgers 79 - Princeton 72 0.722
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Niagara 56 0.958
San Diego 63 - UC San Diego 80 0.892
San Diego State 81 - California 68 0.836
San Francisco 80 - Montana 65 0.894
San Jose State 74 - Kennesaw St 75 0.513
Santa Clara 85 - South Dakota 70 0.816
SE Missouri State 67 - SIU Edwardsville 70 0.568
South Alabama 69 - James Madison 72 0.585
South Carolina Upstate 69 - Youngstown State 77 0.694
South Florida 78 - East Texas AM 63 0.917
Southern Illinois 70 - High Point 71 0.515
Southern Indiana 75 - Tennessee Martin 66 0.731
Southern Miss 68 - Marshall 74 0.64
Southern Utah 78 - Northern Arizona 69 0.75
Stanford 70 - Oregon 82 0.824
Stony Brook 67 - Maine 71 0.603
Syracuse 70 - Maryland 83 0.813
Tarleton State 84 - Unranked 57
Temple 71 - Rhode Island 77 0.648
Texas State 75 - Georgia Southern 67 0.767
Texas Tech 81 - Lamar 62 0.849
Tulsa 76 - Mississippi Valley State 60 0.848
UCLA 77 - North Carolina 74 0.599
UL Monroe 71 - Old Dominion 70 0.555
UMass Lowell 76 - Boston 68 0.73
UMKC 65 - East Tennessee State 73 0.728
UNC Wilmington 75 - UNC Asheville 69 0.661
UT Rio Grande Valley 93 - Unranked 58
Utah 77 - Iowa 79 0.565
Vanderbilt 82 - Austin Peay 60 0.936
Virginia Tech 71 - Saint Josephs 72 0.534
Wagner 82 - Unranked 52
Washington State 77 - Northern Iowa 69 0.702
Weber State 71 - Utah Valley 70 0.508
West Georgia 83 - Unranked 59
Western Kentucky 97 - Unranked 51
Wichita State 76 - Kansas State 73 0.569
Winthrop 78 - Mercer 72 0.75
Xavier 71 - Marquette 79 0.701

GAMES OF 12-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 87 - Kent State 66 0.925
Alabama Birmingham 82 - Alcorn State 66 0.871
Army 73 - Binghamton 70 0.63
Cal State Fullerton 67 - Wyoming 69 0.582
Cincinnati 82 - Grambling State 57 0.924
Cleveland State 87 - Unranked 55
Colgate 71 - Iona 67 0.609
Cornell 77 - Illinois State 71 0.669
George Mason 80 - Pennsylvania 58 0.937
George Washington 92 - Unranked 53
Georgia 87 - Charleston Southern 58 0.942
Grand Canyon 80 - Saint Louis 70 0.804
Hawaii 72 - Charlotte 68 0.647
Iowa State 98 - Morgan State 55 0.992
Kansas 83 - Brown 61 0.926
Long Beach State 88 - Unranked 56
Louisiana State 88 - New Orleans 61 0.962
Loyola Marymount 71 - North Alabama 69 0.549
Miami OH 75 - Sacred Heart 68 0.695
Michigan 85 - IPFW 66 0.898
Milwaukee 94 - Unranked 54
Missouri 75 - Illinois 81 0.646
Missouri State 72 - UC Santa Barbara 73 0.537
NC State 80 - Rider 59 0.934
Nebraska 78 - Murray State 67 0.734
North Texas 82 - Houston Christian 54 0.981
Notre Dame 82 - Le Moyne 62 0.922
Oakland 63 - Loyola Ill 73 0.693
Oklahoma 90 - Central Arkansas 57 0.985
Oklahoma State 84 - Oral Roberts 64 0.96
Oregon State 78 - College of Charleston 69 0.709
Rice 83 - Prairie View 66 0.862
Sacramento State 81 - Unranked 58
Saint Marys 73 - Utah State 72 0.53
Seton Hall 67 - Georgetown 70 0.586
South Carolina 75 - Radford 64 0.809
Southern California 79 - Southern 63 0.827
Stetson 85 - Unranked 62
Stonehill 74 - New Hampshire 61 0.828
Texas Christian 78 - Montana State 67 0.753
Towson 71 - Bryant 72 0.533
UL Lafayette 63 - Mcneese State 77 0.886
Valparaiso 92 - Unranked 56
Virginia 72 - American 58 0.823
Virginia Commonwealth 84 - William and Mary 62 0.942
West Virginia 87 - Mercyhurst 54 0.962
Wisconsin 88 - Detroit 61 0.951


Number of DI Games: 285
Expected Number Correct: 211.511 = 74.2%

PREVIOUS WEEK PREDICTIONS

GAMES OF 11-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 90 - Unranked 55 Abilene Christian 107 - Unranked 74
Air Force 72 - North Alabama 68 0.594 Air Force 57 - North Alabama 73 20
Alabama 88 - UNC Asheville 67 0.892 Alabama 110 - UNC Asheville 54 -35
Alabama Birmingham 72 - Vermont 68 0.606 Alabama Birmingham 62 - Vermont 67 9
Appalachian State 75 - Miami OH 62 0.807 Appalachian State 63 - Miami OH 77 27
Arizona 89 - Canisius 60 0.941 Arizona 93 - Canisius 64 0
Arkansas Little Rock 88 - Unranked 56 Arkansas Little Rock 84 - Unranked 64
Arkansas State 69 - Akron 71 0.552 Arkansas State 80 - Akron 75 -7
Army 68 - Albany 70 0.563 Army 67 - Albany 59 -10
Austin Peay 86 - Unranked 56 Austin Peay 95 - Unranked 75
Belmont 95 - Unranked 54 Belmont 93 - Unranked 70
Boston 68 - Northeastern 67 0.52 Boston 72 - Northeastern 80 9
Boston College 81 - The Citadel 64 0.876 Boston College 69 - The Citadel 60 8
Bradley 82 - SE Missouri State 57 0.941 Bradley 88 - SE Missouri State 60 -3
Bryant 91 - Unranked 56 Bryant 105 - Unranked 63
Butler 76 - Missouri State 69 0.68 Butler 72 - Missouri State 65 0
Cal Baptist 76 - Incarnate Word 59 0.883 Cal Baptist 83 - Incarnate Word 78 12
California 75 - Cal State Bakersfield 65 0.751 California 86 - Cal State Bakersfield 73 -3
Campbell 86 - Unranked 57 Campbell 96 - Unranked 49
Central Florida 73 - Texas AM 74 0.547 Central Florida 64 - Texas AM 61 -4
Charlotte 75 - Presbyterian 60 0.885 Charlotte 88 - Presbyterian 79 6
Cincinnati 87 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 59 0.965 Cincinnati 109 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54 -27
Clemson 84 - Charleston Southern 57 0.946 Clemson 91 - Charleston Southern 64 0
Coastal Carolina 73 - Western Michigan 69 0.609 Coastal Carolina 60 - Western Michigan 56 0
Colorado 83 - Eastern Washington 68 0.839 Colorado 76 - Eastern Washington 56 -5
Colorado State 81 - North Dakota 61 0.889 Colorado State 82 - North Dakota 56 -6
Cornell 94 - Unranked 55 Cornell 93 - Unranked 52
Dartmouth 82 - Unranked 57 Dartmouth 129 - Unranked 47
Davidson 92 - Unranked 52 Davidson 88 - Unranked 47
Dayton 85 - Saint Francis Penn 53 0.98 Dayton 87 - Saint Francis Penn 57 2
Delaware 72 - Bucknell 64 0.724 Delaware 73 - Bucknell 85 20
DePaul 78 - Southern Indiana 68 0.77 DePaul 80 - Southern Indiana 78 8
Detroit 83 - Unranked 60 Detroit 91 - Unranked 52
Drake 98 - Unranked 50 Drake 93 - Unranked 41
Drexel 89 - Unranked 52 Drexel 95 - Unranked 43
Duke 84 - Maine 55 0.957 Duke 96 - Maine 62 -5
Duquesne 77 - Lipscomb 66 0.764 Duquesne 72 - Lipscomb 77 16
East Carolina 89 - Unranked 54 East Carolina 97 - Unranked 70
East Tennessee State 88 - Unranked 53 East Tennessee State 72 - Unranked 51
Eastern Kentucky 89 - Unranked 56 Eastern Kentucky 98 - Unranked 69
Florida State 78 - Northern Kentucky 67 0.773 Florida State 74 - Northern Kentucky 62 -1
Furman 93 - Unranked 54 Furman 104 - Unranked 46
George Mason 75 - North Carolina Central 62 0.83 George Mason 75 - North Carolina Central 58 -4
George Washington 76 - Mercyhurst 68 0.693 George Washington 76 - Mercyhurst 59 -9
Georgia 82 - Tennessee Tech 61 0.916 Georgia 83 - Tennessee Tech 78 16
Georgia Southern 74 - Northern Illinois 68 0.668 Georgia Southern 80 - Northern Illinois 65 -9
Georgia State 73 - Ball State 69 0.588 Georgia State 71 - Ball State 66 -1
Gonzaga 80 - Baylor 76 0.595 Gonzaga 101 - Baylor 63 -34
Grambling State 84 - Unranked 53 Grambling State 92 - Unranked 42
Grand Canyon 78 - Cal State Fullerton 62 0.899 Grand Canyon 89 - Cal State Fullerton 79 6
Hampton 83 - Unranked 61 Hampton 110 - Unranked 53
Harvard 67 - Marist 64 0.573 Harvard 79 - Marist 66 -10
Hofstra 92 - Unranked 51 Hofstra 89 - Unranked 62
Houston 86 - Jackson State 51 0.982 Houston 97 - Jackson State 40 -22
Houston Christian 82 - Unranked 65 Houston Christian 86 - Unranked 59
Idaho 82 - Unranked 59 Idaho 94 - Unranked 60
Illinois 89 - Eastern Illinois 57 0.988 Illinois 112 - Eastern Illinois 67 -13
Illinois Chicago 88 - Unranked 57 Illinois Chicago 91 - Unranked 43
Illinois State 74 - Tennessee Martin 69 0.638 Illinois State 65 - Tennessee Martin 67 7
Indiana State 76 - Florida Atlantic 77 0.527 Indiana State 64 - Florida Atlantic 97 32
Iowa 89 - Texas AM Commerce 62 0.958 Iowa 89 - Texas AM Commerce 67 5
Iowa State 90 - Mississippi Valley State 47 0.995 Iowa State 83 - Mississippi Valley State 44 4
IPFW 89 - Unranked 55 IPFW 99 - Unranked 47
IUPUI 79 - Unranked 63 IUPUI 100 - Unranked 44
Jacksonville 83 - Unranked 54 Jacksonville 78 - Unranked 65
Jacksonville State 86 - Unranked 55 Jacksonville State 112 - Unranked 48
James Madison 76 - Ohio 68 0.698 James Madison 88 - Ohio 78 -2
Kansas 87 - Howard 61 0.937 Kansas 87 - Howard 57 -4
Kentucky 88 - Wright State 71 0.853 Kentucky 103 - Wright State 62 -24
La Salle 74 - American 65 0.733 La Salle 65 - American 52 -4
Lamar 84 - Unranked 57 Lamar 113 - Unranked 42
Liberty 75 - Valparaiso 65 0.757 Liberty 83 - Valparaiso 63 -10
Long Beach State 92 - Unranked 57 Long Beach State 93 - Unranked 48
Longwood 88 - Unranked 53 Longwood 79 - Unranked 68
Louisiana Tech 92 - Unranked 51 Louisiana Tech 77 - Unranked 50
Louisville 70 - Morehead State 71 0.525 Louisville 93 - Morehead State 45 -49
Loyola Ill 80 - Chicago State 59 0.914 Loyola Ill 79 - Chicago State 72 14
Loyola Marymount 90 - Unranked 55 Loyola Marymount 99 - Unranked 55
Loyola MD 68 - Columbia 71 0.621 Loyola MD 78 - Columbia 81 0
Marquette 84 - Stony Brook 63 0.92 Marquette 102 - Stony Brook 62 -19
Marshall 90 - Unranked 56 Marshall 90 - Unranked 57
Maryland 83 - Manhattan 58 0.932 Maryland 79 - Manhattan 49 -5
Massachusetts 77 - New Hampshire 65 0.781 Massachusetts 103 - New Hampshire 74 -17
Memphis 81 - Missouri 71 0.769 Memphis 83 - Missouri 75 2
Miami 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.913 Miami 113 - Fairleigh Dickinson 72 -20
Michigan 77 - Cleveland State 68 0.736 Michigan 101 - Cleveland State 53 -39
Michigan State 82 - Monmouth 61 0.903 Michigan State 81 - Monmouth 57 -3
Middle Tennessee 87 - Unranked 55 Middle Tennessee 97 - Unranked 51
Milwaukee 90 - Unranked 57 Milwaukee 118 - Unranked 62
Mississippi 84 - LIU Brooklyn 59 0.943 Mississippi 90 - LIU Brooklyn 60 -5
Mississippi State 81 - West Georgia 57 0.91 Mississippi State 95 - West Georgia 60 -11
Montana 89 - Unranked 54 Montana 92 - Unranked 61
Morgan State 84 - Unranked 60 Morgan State 89 - Unranked 76
Mt St Marys 86 - Unranked 56 Mt St Marys 98 - Unranked 62
Murray State 89 - Unranked 53 Murray State 113 - Unranked 37
NC State 84 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.947 NC State 97 - South Carolina Upstate 66 -8
Nebraska 88 - UT Rio Grande Valley 63 0.932 Nebraska 87 - UT Rio Grande Valley 67 5
Nevada 77 - Sam Houston State 66 0.77 Nevada 91 - Sam Houston State 75 -5
Nevada Las Vegas 81 - Alabama State 57 0.941 Nevada Las Vegas 93 - Alabama State 79 10
New Mexico 82 - Nicholls State 65 0.876 New Mexico 91 - Nicholls State 84 10
New Mexico State 87 - Unranked 56 New Mexico State 93 - Unranked 57
Niagara 86 - Unranked 56 Niagara 100 - Unranked 65
NJ Tech 66 - Pennsylvania 74 0.721 NJ Tech 57 - Pennsylvania 58 -7
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 53 Norfolk State 96 - Unranked 41
North Carolina 89 - Elon 58 0.975 North Carolina 90 - Elon 76 17
North Carolina AT 82 - Unranked 60 North Carolina AT 107 - Unranked 55
North Dakota State 87 - Unranked 56 North Dakota State 96 - Unranked 59
Northern Arizona 85 - Unranked 58 Northern Arizona 100 - Unranked 49
Northern Colorado 90 - Unranked 57 Northern Colorado 75 - Unranked 55
Northern Iowa 93 - Unranked 53 Northern Iowa 96 - Unranked 54
Northwestern 83 - Lehigh 61 0.926 Northwestern 90 - Lehigh 46 -22
Northwestern State 83 - Unranked 59 Northwestern State 96 - Unranked 55
Oakland 91 - Unranked 54 Oakland 75 - Unranked 52
Oklahoma 86 - Lindenwood 56 0.965 Oklahoma 93 - Lindenwood 60 -3
Oklahoma State 79 - Green Bay 62 0.883 Oklahoma State 89 - Green Bay 76 4
Old Dominion 74 - Buffalo 68 0.676 Old Dominion 82 - Buffalo 83 7
Omaha 85 - Unranked 59 Omaha 85 - Unranked 69
Oregon 81 - UC Riverside 64 0.879 Oregon 91 - UC Riverside 76 2
Oregon State 78 - Utah Tech 68 0.758 Oregon State 80 - Utah Tech 57 -13
Pacific 85 - Unranked 61 Pacific 92 - Unranked 65
Penn State 82 - Binghamton 63 0.907 Penn State 108 - Binghamton 66 -23
Pittsburgh 80 - Radford 61 0.892 Pittsburgh 96 - Radford 56 -21
Prairie View 82 - Unranked 59 Prairie View 111 - Unranked 90
Princeton 75 - Iona 66 0.751 Princeton 81 - Iona 80 8
Providence 81 - Central Connecticut State 59 0.945 Providence 59 - Central Connecticut State 55 18
Purdue 85 - Texas AM CC 57 0.963 Purdue 90 - Texas AM CC 73 11
Queens 88 - Unranked 59 Queens 90 - Unranked 39
Rhode Island 72 - Fairfield 71 0.537 Rhode Island 96 - Fairfield 58 -37
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Cal State Northridge 64 0.836 Saint Bonaventure 70 - Cal State Northridge 56 1
Saint Johns 83 - Fordham 67 0.868 Saint Johns 92 - Fordham 60 -16
Saint Josephs 77 - Navy 63 0.857 Saint Josephs 70 - Navy 63 7
Saint Louis 75 - Santa Clara 78 0.586 Saint Louis 78 - Santa Clara 85 4
Saint Marys 74 - Towson 57 0.852 Saint Marys 76 - Towson 69 10
Saint Thomas 86 - Unranked 53 Saint Thomas 96 - Unranked 71
Samford 95 - Unranked 54 Samford 100 - Unranked 58
San Jose State 71 - Western Illinois 67 0.616 San Jose State 55 - Western Illinois 59 8
Seton Hall 77 - Saint Peters 60 0.864 Seton Hall 57 - Saint Peters 53 13
Siena 64 - Brown 72 0.748 Siena 72 - Brown 71 -9
SIU Edwardsville 84 - Unranked 57 SIU Edwardsville 95 - Unranked 42
South Alabama 73 - Central Michigan 65 0.701 South Alabama 70 - Central Michigan 74 12
South Carolina 80 - North Florida 64 0.851 South Carolina 71 - North Florida 74 19
South Carolina State 83 - Unranked 59 South Carolina State 137 - Unranked 55
South Dakota 68 - Southern 69 0.527 South Dakota 93 - Southern 79 -15
South Dakota State 71 - Mcneese State 67 0.617 South Dakota State 80 - Mcneese State 73 -3
South Florida 72 - Florida 79 0.689 South Florida 83 - Florida 98 8
Southeast Louisiana 83 - Unranked 57 Southeast Louisiana 91 - Unranked 53
Southern California 78 - Chattanooga 68 0.725 Southern California 77 - Chattanooga 51 -16
Southern Illinois 70 - College of Charleston 74 0.625 Southern Illinois 80 - College of Charleston 90 6
Southern Methodist 75 - Tarleton State 69 0.668 Southern Methodist 96 - Tarleton State 62 -28
Southern Miss 72 - Bowling Green 68 0.585 Southern Miss 77 - Bowling Green 68 -5
Southern Utah 91 - Unranked 58 Southern Utah 96 - Unranked 68
Stanford 84 - Denver 67 0.849 Stanford 85 - Denver 62 -6
Stephen F Austin 91 - Unranked 54 Stephen F Austin 85 - Unranked 51
Stetson 88 - Unranked 56 Stetson 94 - Unranked 75
Stonehill 80 - Unranked 60 Stonehill 81 - Unranked 62
Syracuse 83 - Le Moyne 63 0.871 Syracuse 86 - Le Moyne 82 16
Temple 76 - Sacred Heart 65 0.79 Temple 81 - Sacred Heart 70 0
Tennessee 83 - Gardner Webb 58 0.942 Tennessee 80 - Gardner Webb 64 9
Tennessee State 85 - Unranked 57 Tennessee State 96 - Unranked 66
Texas 77 - Ohio State 74 0.582 Texas 72 - Ohio State 80 11
Texas Arlington 92 - Unranked 55 Texas Arlington 90 - Unranked 55
Texas Christian 86 - Florida AM 57 0.972 Texas Christian 105 - Florida AM 59 -17
Texas El Paso 89 - Unranked 53 Texas El Paso 102 - Unranked 55
Texas San Antonio 90 - Unranked 60 Texas San Antonio 103 - Unranked 77
Texas State 74 - Eastern Michigan 61 0.827 Texas State 64 - Eastern Michigan 44 -7
Troy 73 - Toledo 74 0.509 Troy 84 - Toledo 74 -11
Tulane 95 - Unranked 57 Tulane 76 - Unranked 42
Tulsa 90 - Unranked 57 Tulsa 82 - Unranked 68
UC Irvine 93 - Unranked 51 UC Irvine 82 - Unranked 52
UC Santa Barbara 90 - Unranked 55 UC Santa Barbara 96 - Unranked 47
UCLA 78 - Rider 62 0.858 UCLA 85 - Rider 50 -19
UL Lafayette 71 - Kent State 69 0.567 UL Lafayette 66 - Kent State 70 6
UL Monroe 85 - Unranked 58 UL Monroe 111 - Unranked 61
UMass Lowell 91 - Unranked 54 UMass Lowell 115 - Unranked 59
UMBC 89 - Unranked 59 UMBC 95 - Unranked 66
UMKC 85 - Unranked 54 UMKC 91 - Unranked 68
UNC Greensboro 72 - Florida Gulf Coast 62 0.731 UNC Greensboro 73 - Florida Gulf Coast 64 1
UNC Wilmington 91 - Unranked 53 UNC Wilmington 143 - Unranked 91
Utah 83 - Alcorn State 63 0.889 Utah 100 - Alcorn State 59 -21
Utah Valley 90 - Unranked 53 Utah Valley 92 - Unranked 57
Vanderbilt 78 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59 0.911 Vanderbilt 102 - Maryland Eastern Shore 63 -20
Villanova 81 - Lafayette 56 0.945 Villanova 75 - Lafayette 63 13
Virginia Commonwealth 80 - Bellarmine 57 0.946 Virginia Commonwealth 84 - Bellarmine 65 4
Virginia Military Institute 83 - Unranked 64 Virginia Military Institute 103 - Unranked 54
Virginia Tech 84 - Delaware State 59 0.935 Virginia Tech 83 - Delaware State 60 2
Wake Forest 87 - Coppin State 55 0.964 Wake Forest 64 - Coppin State 49 17
Washington State 81 - Portland State 60 0.906 Washington State 100 - Portland State 92 13
Weber State 89 - Unranked 54 Weber State 118 - Unranked 35
West Virginia 82 - Robert Morris 65 0.875 West Virginia 87 - Robert Morris 59 -11
Western Carolina 90 - Unranked 54 Western Carolina 100 - Unranked 61
Western Kentucky 75 - Wichita State 73 0.559 Western Kentucky 84 - Wichita State 91 9
William and Mary 83 - Unranked 58 William and Mary 84 - Unranked 36
Winthrop 90 - Unranked 56 Winthrop 125 - Unranked 65
Wisconsin 88 - Holy Cross 56 0.965 Wisconsin 85 - Holy Cross 61 8
Wofford 89 - Unranked 55 Wofford 112 - Unranked 58
Wyoming 93 - Unranked 56 Wyoming 108 - Unranked 85
Xavier 82 - Texas Southern 63 0.916 Xavier 78 - Texas Southern 69 10
Yale 75 - Quinnipiac 66 0.748 Yale 88 - Quinnipiac 62 -17

GAMES OF 11-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 78 - Idaho State 63 0.83 Arizona State 55 - Idaho State 48 8
Brigham Young 90 - Central Arkansas 59 0.961 Brigham Young 88 - Central Arkansas 50 -7
Colgate 91 - Unranked 51 Colgate 95 - Unranked 62
Kansas State 87 - New Orleans 60 0.951 Kansas State 89 - New Orleans 65 3
Kennesaw St 88 - Unranked 59 Kennesaw St 110 - Unranked 61
North Texas 77 - Evansville 59 0.892 North Texas 80 - Evansville 63 1
Rice 76 - Florida International 71 0.641 Rice 77 - Florida International 70 -2
Sacramento State 82 - Unranked 56 Sacramento State 106 - Unranked 44
San Francisco 82 - Cal Poly 57 0.954 San Francisco 86 - Cal Poly 78 17
Texas Tech 85 - Bethune Cookman 59 0.948 Texas Tech 94 - Bethune Cookman 61 -7
Washington 79 - UC Davis 69 0.774 Washington 79 - UC Davis 73 4

GAMES OF 11-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 92 - Unranked 50 Appalachian State 108 - Unranked 54
Arkansas 82 - Lipscomb 69 0.8 Arkansas 76 - Lipscomb 60 -3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 83 - Unranked 62 Arkansas Pine Bluff 99 - Unranked 57
Auburn 77 - Vermont 64 0.823 Auburn 94 - Vermont 43 -38
Boise State 79 - Oakland 65 0.822 Boise State 87 - Oakland 43 -30
Cleveland State 88 - Unranked 54 Cleveland State 91 - Unranked 53
Connecticut 90 - Sacred Heart 54 0.978 Connecticut 92 - Sacred Heart 56 0
Creighton 91 - UT Rio Grande Valley 59 0.965 Creighton 99 - UT Rio Grande Valley 86 19
Eastern Illinois 82 - Unranked 58 Eastern Illinois 97 - Unranked 61
Eastern Washington 71 - Seattle 72 0.504 Eastern Washington 93 - Seattle 86 -8
Georgetown 78 - Lehigh 70 0.743 Georgetown 85 - Lehigh 77 0
Georgia Tech 79 - West Georgia 63 0.823 Georgia Tech 85 - West Georgia 62 -7
High Point 80 - Coppin State 60 0.922 High Point 93 - Coppin State 51 -22
Indiana 82 - SIU Edwardsville 61 0.922 Indiana 80 - SIU Edwardsville 61 2
Le Moyne 69 - Cal State Northridge 70 0.507 Le Moyne 75 - Cal State Northridge 97 21
Louisiana State 82 - UL Monroe 63 0.901 Louisiana State 95 - UL Monroe 60 -16
Maine 83 - Unranked 54 Maine 98 - Unranked 47
Minnesota 79 - Oral Roberts 67 0.807 Minnesota 80 - Oral Roberts 57 -11
Morehead State 88 - Unranked 50 Morehead State 89 - Unranked 48
Morgan State 68 - Mercyhurst 69 0.521 Morgan State 73 - Mercyhurst 78 4
New Hampshire 86 - Unranked 56 New Hampshire 99 - Unranked 69
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 53 Norfolk State 104 - Unranked 60
Notre Dame 80 - Stonehill 57 0.929 Notre Dame 89 - Stonehill 60 -6
Pepperdine 73 - Western Illinois 67 0.64 Pepperdine 77 - Western Illinois 64 -7
Portland 88 - Unranked 59 Portland 83 - Unranked 70
Presbyterian 84 - Unranked 58 Presbyterian 120 - Unranked 45
Richmond 94 - Unranked 50 Richmond 101 - Unranked 68
Rutgers 74 - Wagner 57 0.861 Rutgers 75 - Wagner 52 -6
San Diego 73 - Rider 72 0.507 San Diego 67 - Rider 68 2
San Diego State 81 - UC San Diego 61 0.905 San Diego State 63 - UC San Diego 58 15
South Carolina Upstate 85 - Unranked 58 South Carolina Upstate 103 - Unranked 70
South Dakota 72 - Texas AM Commerce 67 0.622 South Dakota 91 - Texas AM Commerce 83 -3
Texas Southern 85 - Unranked 55 Texas Southern 100 - Unranked 66
Utah State 85 - Alcorn State 62 0.937 Utah State 101 - Alcorn State 46 -32
Villanova 83 - Columbia 60 0.943 Villanova 80 - Columbia 90 33
Virginia 78 - Campbell 56 0.9 Virginia 65 - Campbell 56 13
Wright State 94 - Unranked 57 Wright State 89 - Unranked 60

GAMES OF 11-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Jacksonville State 68 0.522 Air Force 73 - Jacksonville State 67 -5
Alabama AM 82 - Unranked 57 Alabama AM 121 - Unranked 78
Alabama Birmingham 79 - Southern Miss 65 0.825 Alabama Birmingham 98 - Southern Miss 84 0
Binghamton 85 - Unranked 57 Binghamton 82 - Unranked 63
Cal State Bakersfield 84 - Unranked 55 Cal State Bakersfield 122 - Unranked 53
California 80 - Cal Poly 61 0.896 California 91 - Cal Poly 73 1
Central Michigan 66 - Stony Brook 70 0.6 Central Michigan 72 - Stony Brook 73 -3
Delaware 74 - Robert Morris 64 0.758 Delaware 81 - Robert Morris 77 6
DePaul 77 - Prairie View 67 0.79 DePaul 92 - Prairie View 59 -23
Fairleigh Dickinson 86 - Unranked 60 Fairleigh Dickinson 112 - Unranked 72
Florida 83 - Jacksonville 61 0.927 Florida 81 - Jacksonville 60 1
Idaho 63 - UC Davis 73 0.768 Idaho 75 - UC Davis 79 -6
Indiana State 99 - Unranked 52 Indiana State 93 - Unranked 48
Iowa 85 - Southern 63 0.918 Iowa 89 - Southern 74 7
Lindenwood 80 - Unranked 60 Lindenwood 98 - Unranked 30
Loyola Ill 81 - Detroit 59 0.934 Loyola Ill 87 - Detroit 65 0
Mcneese State 88 - Unranked 52 Mcneese State 111 - Unranked 57
Mercer 87 - Unranked 54 Mercer 125 - Unranked 54
Michigan State 82 - Niagara 59 0.93 Michigan State 96 - Niagara 60 -13
Mississippi Valley State 75 - Unranked 63 Mississippi Valley State 66 - Unranked 49
North Alabama 86 - Unranked 57 North Alabama 94 - Unranked 58
North Dakota State 68 - Illinois State 69 0.506 North Dakota State 68 - Illinois State 77 8
North Florida 73 - Charleston Southern 65 0.702 North Florida 90 - Charleston Southern 66 -16
North Texas 92 - Unranked 47 North Texas 80 - Unranked 38
Northern Illinois 85 - Unranked 59 Northern Illinois 105 - Unranked 37
Northern Iowa 78 - Milwaukee 68 0.746 Northern Iowa 87 - Milwaukee 68 -9
Pennsylvania 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 62 0.829 Pennsylvania 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 84 12
Portland State 86 - Unranked 57 Portland State 131 - Unranked 84
Quinnipiac 91 - Unranked 55 Quinnipiac 71 - Unranked 47
Saint Marys 77 - Chattanooga 61 0.831 Saint Marys 86 - Chattanooga 74 4
Southern California 81 - Idaho State 61 0.9 Southern California 75 - Idaho State 69 14
Southern Indiana 67 - Bucknell 69 0.566 Southern Indiana 69 - Bucknell 75 4
Southern Methodist 82 - Florida AM 58 0.941 Southern Methodist 102 - Florida AM 73 -5
Stetson 74 - Omaha 66 0.706 Stetson 76 - Omaha 79 11
Tennessee Martin 89 - Unranked 59 Tennessee Martin 114 - Unranked 61
Tennessee Tech 82 - Unranked 59 Tennessee Tech 89 - Unranked 74
The Citadel 85 - Unranked 58 The Citadel 86 - Unranked 56
UL Lafayette 91 - Unranked 54 UL Lafayette 82 - Unranked 65
Utah 87 - Central Arkansas 60 0.932 Utah 98 - Central Arkansas 63 -8
Wake Forest 86 - North Carolina AT 60 0.952 Wake Forest 80 - North Carolina AT 64 10
Western Michigan 84 - Unranked 59 Western Michigan 86 - Unranked 46
Wisconsin 81 - Montana State 63 0.891 Wisconsin 79 - Montana State 67 6

GAMES OF 11-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 91 - Unranked 51 Akron 88 - Unranked 57
Alabama 88 - Arkansas State 68 0.892 Alabama 88 - Arkansas State 79 11
Ball State 87 - Unranked 57 Ball State 87 - Unranked 60
Belmont 76 - Furman 72 0.604 Belmont 74 - Furman 76 6
Boston College 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 74 0.632 Boston College 55 - Virginia Commonwealth 80 21
Bowling Green 67 - Davidson 74 0.697 Bowling Green 85 - Davidson 91 -1
Brigham Young 83 - UC Riverside 65 0.874 Brigham Young 86 - UC Riverside 80 12
Bryant 76 - Siena 63 0.824 Bryant 88 - Siena 90 15
Buffalo 86 - Unranked 60 Buffalo 87 - Unranked 78
Butler 80 - Austin Peay 64 0.873 Butler 66 - Austin Peay 68 18
Central Florida 78 - IPFW 65 0.816 Central Florida 75 - IPFW 68 6
Cincinnati 75 - Morehead State 64 0.799 Cincinnati 83 - Morehead State 56 -16
Clemson 87 - Saint Francis Penn 55 0.963 Clemson 88 - Saint Francis Penn 62 6
College of Charleston 75 - South Florida 72 0.585 College of Charleston 86 - South Florida 71 -12
Colorado 84 - Northern Colorado 65 0.905 Colorado 90 - Northern Colorado 88 17
Colorado State 81 - Tennessee State 60 0.921 Colorado State 87 - Tennessee State 79 13
Cornell 75 - Samford 76 0.508 Cornell 88 - Samford 86 -3
Denver 87 - Unranked 61 Denver 97 - Unranked 80
Duke 86 - Army 53 0.964 Duke 100 - Army 58 -9
East Tennessee State 72 - Eastern Kentucky 68 0.611 East Tennessee State 78 - Eastern Kentucky 82 8
Eastern Michigan 83 - Unranked 59 Eastern Michigan 83 - Unranked 58
Florida Atlantic 98 - Unranked 51 Florida Atlantic 99 - Unranked 49
Fresno State 72 - Sacramento State 62 0.762 Fresno State 64 - Sacramento State 57 3
George Washington 80 - Hampton 67 0.815 George Washington 82 - Hampton 54 -15
Green Bay 64 - Saint Thomas 68 0.577 Green Bay 76 - Saint Thomas 90 10
Hawaii 89 - Unranked 53 Hawaii 96 - Unranked 61
Hofstra 73 - Iona 66 0.687 Hofstra 90 - Iona 76 -7
Illinois 89 - SIU Edwardsville 60 0.965 Illinois 90 - SIU Edwardsville 58 -3
Illinois Chicago 65 - Yale 75 0.771 Illinois Chicago 91 - Yale 79 -22
Incarnate Word 80 - Unranked 62 Incarnate Word 97 - Unranked 53
Kansas 76 - North Carolina 77 0.502 Kansas 92 - North Carolina 89 -4
Kent State 90 - Unranked 53 Kent State 98 - Unranked 53
Loyola Marymount 68 - UC Irvine 73 0.631 Loyola Marymount 51 - UC Irvine 66 10
Marquette 80 - George Mason 66 0.836 Marquette 82 - George Mason 63 -5
Maryland 79 - Mt St Marys 61 0.887 Maryland 86 - Mt St Marys 52 -16
Mississippi 76 - Grambling State 62 0.839 Mississippi 66 - Grambling State 64 12
Mississippi State 81 - Georgia State 62 0.885 Mississippi State 101 - Georgia State 66 -16
Missouri 79 - Howard 67 0.817 Missouri 77 - Howard 62 -3
Monmouth 69 - Temple 73 0.616 Monmouth 74 - Temple 103 25
Navy 66 - Harvard 68 0.57 Navy 85 - Harvard 80 -7
NC State 85 - Presbyterian 60 0.951 NC State 81 - Presbyterian 72 16
Nicholls State 69 - South Alabama 70 0.542 Nicholls State 64 - South Alabama 70 5
North Carolina Central 68 - Gardner Webb 69 0.551 North Carolina Central 82 - Gardner Webb 88 5
Northern Arizona 85 - Unranked 58 Northern Arizona 115 - Unranked 67
Oral Roberts 89 - Unranked 56 Oral Roberts 105 - Unranked 49
Oregon 80 - Montana 65 0.845 Oregon 79 - Montana 48 -16
Oregon State 73 - Weber State 68 0.602 Oregon State 76 - Weber State 48 -23
Penn State 84 - UMBC 67 0.886 Penn State 103 - UMBC 54 -32
Pittsburgh 79 - Murray State 64 0.795 Pittsburgh 83 - Murray State 68 0
Princeton 72 - Duquesne 70 0.561 Princeton 75 - Duquesne 68 -5
Purdue 84 - Northern Kentucky 59 0.947 Purdue 72 - Northern Kentucky 50 3
Queens 69 - Western Carolina 75 0.644 Queens 67 - Western Carolina 54 -19
Radford 72 - William and Mary 64 0.733 Radford 89 - William and Mary 77 -4
Rhode Island 79 - Holy Cross 65 0.841 Rhode Island 91 - Holy Cross 77 0
Saint Josephs 78 - Central Connecticut State 63 0.876 Saint Josephs 67 - Central Connecticut State 73 21
San Diego 73 - Boston 68 0.627 San Diego 74 - Boston 60 -9
San Jose State 76 - Pacific 69 0.684 San Jose State 67 - Pacific 80 20
Santa Clara 75 - Arizona State 74 0.515 Santa Clara 74 - Arizona State 81 8
South Carolina 82 - South Carolina State 59 0.928 South Carolina 86 - South Carolina State 64 1
South Dakota State 76 - Long Beach State 70 0.656 South Dakota State 80 - Long Beach State 79 5
Southern Illinois 91 - Unranked 52 Southern Illinois 86 - Unranked 64
Stanford 78 - Cal State Fullerton 67 0.786 Stanford 80 - Cal State Fullerton 53 -16
Texas 93 - Houston Christian 56 0.987 Texas 90 - Houston Christian 59 6
Texas AM 84 - Texas AM Commerce 57 0.952 Texas AM 87 - Texas AM Commerce 55 -5
Texas AM CC 86 - Unranked 54 Texas AM CC 87 - Unranked 36
Texas Christian 81 - Florida Gulf Coast 62 0.899 Texas Christian 67 - Florida Gulf Coast 51 3
Texas State 88 - Unranked 52 Texas State 102 - Unranked 62
Texas Tech 86 - Northwestern State 58 0.954 Texas Tech 86 - Northwestern State 65 7
Towson 88 - Unranked 50 Towson 89 - Unranked 34
Tulane 80 - UL Monroe 67 0.828 Tulane 80 - UL Monroe 64 -3
UCLA 74 - New Mexico 73 0.522 UCLA 64 - New Mexico 72 9
UMass Lowell 69 - Saint Peters 65 0.623 UMass Lowell 81 - Saint Peters 74 -3
UMKC 85 - Unranked 54 UMKC 124 - Unranked 36
UNC Wilmington 76 - Georgia Southern 67 0.726 UNC Wilmington 92 - Georgia Southern 84 1
Valparaiso 87 - Unranked 58 Valparaiso 111 - Unranked 46
Villanova 83 - NJ Tech 55 0.955 Villanova 91 - NJ Tech 54 -9
Virginia Tech 83 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.918 Virginia Tech 93 - South Carolina Upstate 74 3
Washington State 74 - Bradley 68 0.632 Washington State 91 - Bradley 74 -11
West Virginia 78 - Massachusetts 75 0.578 West Virginia 75 - Massachusetts 69 -3
Xavier 89 - IUPUI 57 0.963 Xavier 94 - IUPUI 80 18

GAMES OF 11-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 72 - Middle Tennessee 67 0.624 Abilene Christian 56 - Middle Tennessee 79 28
Albany 88 - Unranked 59 Albany 89 - Unranked 69
Arizona 89 - Old Dominion 61 0.945 Arizona 102 - Old Dominion 44 -30
Baylor 83 - Arkansas 74 0.742 Baylor 72 - Arkansas 67 4
Bellarmine 74 - Virginia Military Institute 66 0.717 Bellarmine 71 - Virginia Military Institute 76 13
Cal Baptist 74 - Kennesaw St 67 0.683 Cal Baptist 88 - Kennesaw St 84 3
Canisius 65 - Saint Bonaventure 75 0.752 Canisius 78 - Saint Bonaventure 87 -1
Chicago State 65 - Youngstown State 75 0.756 Chicago State 60 - Youngstown State 80 10
Columbia 73 - Delaware State 66 0.681 Columbia 83 - Delaware State 62 -14
Connecticut 87 - New Hampshire 55 0.961 Connecticut 92 - New Hampshire 53 -7
Coppin State 61 - Rider 75 0.829 Coppin State 53 - Rider 64 -3
Dartmouth 67 - Sacred Heart 68 0.508 Dartmouth 81 - Sacred Heart 76 -6
Dayton 74 - Northwestern 71 0.609 Dayton 71 - Northwestern 66 -2
Drexel 68 - Colgate 69 0.514 Drexel 73 - Colgate 56 -18
East Carolina 75 - Coastal Carolina 66 0.746 East Carolina 63 - Coastal Carolina 59 5
Elon 84 - Unranked 58 Elon 103 - Unranked 66
Evansville 87 - Unranked 57 Evansville 96 - Unranked 49
Georgetown 75 - Fairfield 72 0.578 Georgetown 69 - Fairfield 57 -9
Grand Canyon 78 - Western Kentucky 69 0.772 Grand Canyon 74 - Western Kentucky 72 7
High Point 76 - Jackson State 65 0.791 High Point 80 - Jackson State 71 2
Houston 77 - Auburn 70 0.663 Houston 69 - Auburn 74 12
Kansas State 79 - Cleveland State 65 0.834 Kansas State 77 - Cleveland State 64 1
Kentucky 87 - Bucknell 61 0.94 Kentucky 100 - Bucknell 72 -2
La Salle 74 - Lafayette 64 0.78 La Salle 81 - Lafayette 60 -11
Le Moyne 84 - Unranked 57 Le Moyne 107 - Unranked 73
Lipscomb 72 - Wofford 70 0.551 Lipscomb 78 - Wofford 69 -7
LIU Brooklyn 82 - Unranked 62 LIU Brooklyn 102 - Unranked 42
Longwood 76 - Morgan State 63 0.801 Longwood 84 - Morgan State 66 -5
Louisville 65 - Tennessee 84 0.883 Louisville 55 - Tennessee 77 3
Loyola MD 81 - Unranked 60 Loyola MD 83 - Unranked 42
Marshall 73 - Toledo 76 0.597 Marshall 80 - Toledo 90 7
Maryland Eastern Shore 80 - Unranked 58 Maryland Eastern Shore 96 - Unranked 77
Mercyhurst 84 - Unranked 57 Mercyhurst 88 - Unranked 62
Merrimack 59 - Vermont 68 0.779 Merrimack 65 - Vermont 51 -23
Miami OH 70 - Wright State 75 0.621 Miami OH 68 - Wright State 81 8
Minnesota 81 - Omaha 64 0.89 Minnesota 68 - Omaha 64 13
Nebraska 84 - Bethune Cookman 62 0.919 Nebraska 63 - Bethune Cookman 58 17
Nevada 80 - Washington 73 0.67 Nevada 63 - Washington 53 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 75 - Memphis 76 0.519 Nevada Las Vegas 74 - Memphis 80 5
New Orleans 64 - Troy 78 0.849 New Orleans 61 - Troy 78 3
Nicholls State 87 - Unranked 55 Nicholls State 93 - Unranked 44
Norfolk State 66 - James Madison 74 0.696 Norfolk State 83 - James Madison 69 -22
Ohio 73 - UNC Asheville 69 0.62 Ohio 82 - UNC Asheville 76 -2
Portland 71 - UC Santa Barbara 74 0.601 Portland 53 - UC Santa Barbara 94 38
Providence 85 - Stonehill 55 0.961 Providence 76 - Stonehill 49 3
Rice 71 - Florida State 80 0.717 Rice 65 - Florida State 73 -1
Richmond 74 - Marist 60 0.828 Richmond 72 - Marist 79 21
Saint Johns 84 - Quinnipiac 68 0.849 Saint Johns 96 - Quinnipiac 73 -7
San Francisco 71 - Boise State 74 0.575 San Francisco 84 - Boise State 73 -14
Seattle 70 - Liberty 67 0.579 Seattle 64 - Liberty 66 5
Seton Hall 80 - Fordham 64 0.854 Seton Hall 56 - Fordham 57 17
Southern Utah 77 - Florida International 71 0.669 Southern Utah 80 - Florida International 75 1
Tarleton State 70 - Sam Houston State 69 0.519 Tarleton State 62 - Sam Houston State 91 30
Texas Arlington 71 - Louisiana Tech 72 0.549 Texas Arlington 77 - Louisiana Tech 92 14
Tulsa 80 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 0.848 Tulsa 103 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 80 -8
UC San Diego 75 - Pepperdine 71 0.594 UC San Diego 94 - Pepperdine 76 -14
Unranked 60 - Alcorn State 84 Unranked 62 - Alcorn State 56
Utah State 77 - Charlotte 66 0.792 Utah State 103 - Charlotte 74 -18
Utah Tech 70 - New Mexico State 71 0.507 Utah Tech 63 - New Mexico State 75 11
Utah Valley 71 - Texas El Paso 67 0.612 Utah Valley 89 - Texas El Paso 60 -25
Wagner 82 - Unranked 53 Wagner 94 - Unranked 52
Wichita State 75 - Montana State 67 0.706 Wichita State 89 - Montana State 69 -12
Winthrop 74 - Arkansas Little Rock 69 0.615 Winthrop 82 - Arkansas Little Rock 67 -10

GAMES OF 11-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 81 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.91 Alabama Birmingham 82 - Southeast Louisiana 72 11
American 66 - Harvard 69 0.581 American 67 - Harvard 55 -15
Brown 71 - Maine 63 0.723 Brown 67 - Maine 69 10
Cal Poly 80 - Unranked 60 Cal Poly 99 - Unranked 66
Campbell 73 - Saint Francis Penn 63 0.761 Campbell 64 - Saint Francis Penn 65 11
Creighton 90 - Fairleigh Dickinson 59 0.964 Creighton 96 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70 5
Detroit 67 - Niagara 72 0.648 Detroit 84 - Niagara 78 -11
Drake 79 - Stephen F Austin 66 0.793 Drake 66 - Stephen F Austin 51 -2
Georgia 78 - Texas Southern 64 0.888 Georgia 92 - Texas Southern 64 -14
Georgia Tech 80 - North Florida 67 0.79 Georgia Tech 93 - North Florida 105 25
Gonzaga 84 - Arizona State 68 0.84 Gonzaga 88 - Arizona State 80 8
Hawaii 74 - San Jose State 67 0.705 Hawaii 80 - San Jose State 69 -4
Indiana 83 - Eastern Illinois 58 0.953 Indiana 90 - Eastern Illinois 55 -10
Louisiana State 82 - Alabama State 59 0.949 Louisiana State 74 - Alabama State 61 10
Loyola Ill 94 - Unranked 50 Loyola Ill 105 - Unranked 53
Miami 81 - Binghamton 64 0.871 Miami 88 - Binghamton 64 -7
Montana 89 - Unranked 54 Montana 94 - Unranked 44
Northeastern 64 - Princeton 75 0.793 Northeastern 76 - Princeton 79 -8
Northern Iowa 72 - UC Irvine 71 0.507 Northern Iowa 60 - UC Irvine 80 21
Oklahoma State 76 - Saint Thomas 65 0.782 Oklahoma State 80 - Saint Thomas 71 2
Pacific 84 - Unranked 62 Pacific 94 - Unranked 41
Robert Morris 84 - Unranked 58 Robert Morris 79 - Unranked 51
Saint Louis 95 - Unranked 56 Saint Louis 95 - Unranked 44
South Dakota 86 - Unranked 60 South Dakota 77 - Unranked 47
UT Rio Grande Valley 85 - Unranked 62 UT Rio Grande Valley 110 - Unranked 60
Vanderbilt 80 - SE Missouri State 62 0.916 Vanderbilt 85 - SE Missouri State 76 9
Wake Forest 81 - Michigan 73 0.68 Wake Forest 72 - Michigan 70 6
Wisconsin 77 - Appalachian State 66 0.776 Wisconsin 87 - Appalachian State 56 -20
Wyoming 77 - Tennessee State 66 0.785 Wyoming 81 - Tennessee State 66 -4


Number of DI Games: 306
Number Correct: 250 = 81.6%
Expected Number Correct: 238.013 = 77.7%
Average Error: 10.49
Average Signed Error: -0.88

GAMES OF 11-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 77 - LIU Brooklyn 65 0.796 Air Force 54 - LIU Brooklyn 63 21
Alabama 88 - Mcneese State 64 0.915 Alabama 72 - Mcneese State 64 16
Alabama AM 84 - Unranked 58 Alabama AM 103 - Unranked 57
Austin Peay 75 - Chattanooga 71 0.614 Austin Peay 67 - Chattanooga 61 -2
Bowling Green 88 - Unranked 59 Bowling Green 107 - Unranked 43
Butler 79 - Western Michigan 59 0.92 Butler 85 - Western Michigan 65 0
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - North Dakota State 67 0.714 Cal State Bakersfield 86 - North Dakota State 81 2
Central Connecticut State 90 - Unranked 53 Central Connecticut State 117 - Unranked 68
Charleston Southern 85 - Unranked 58 Charleston Southern 108 - Unranked 50
DePaul 72 - Mercer 70 0.543 DePaul 95 - Mercer 64 -29
Florida 84 - Grambling State 61 0.937 Florida 86 - Grambling State 62 -1
Furman 75 - Jacksonville 65 0.802 Furman 78 - Jacksonville 69 1
George Mason 75 - Stony Brook 65 0.777 George Mason 94 - Stony Brook 56 -28
Georgia Southern 90 - Unranked 57 Georgia Southern 79 - Unranked 69
Hawaii 78 - Pacific 68 0.752 Hawaii 76 - Pacific 66 0
Howard 88 - Unranked 59 Howard 91 - Unranked 73
Idaho State 89 - Unranked 55 Idaho State 87 - Unranked 63
Iowa State 80 - UMKC 58 0.904 Iowa State 82 - UMKC 56 -4
Marquette 87 - Central Michigan 58 0.961 Marquette 70 - Central Michigan 62 21
Marshall 76 - Southern Indiana 68 0.717 Marshall 77 - Southern Indiana 63 -6
Maryland 87 - Florida AM 56 0.982 Maryland 84 - Florida AM 53 0
Missouri 78 - Eastern Washington 74 0.651 Missouri 84 - Eastern Washington 77 -3
Missouri State 92 - Unranked 55 Missouri State 90 - Unranked 61
Montana State 92 - Unranked 56 Montana State 93 - Unranked 35
North Alabama 75 - Tennessee Martin 69 0.661 North Alabama 87 - Tennessee Martin 69 -12
Notre Dame 82 - Buffalo 64 0.915 Notre Dame 86 - Buffalo 77 9
Ohio State 81 - Youngstown State 66 0.853 Ohio State 81 - Youngstown State 47 -19
Oklahoma 84 - Northwestern State 62 0.942 Oklahoma 73 - Northwestern State 57 6
Pittsburgh 83 - Gardner Webb 66 0.882 Pittsburgh 83 - Gardner Webb 64 -2
Purdue 83 - Yale 64 0.883 Purdue 92 - Yale 84 11
Rutgers 76 - Saint Peters 59 0.894 Rutgers 75 - Saint Peters 65 7
South Carolina State 86 - Unranked 60 South Carolina State 94 - Unranked 48
Southern Methodist 78 - UNC Greensboro 70 0.72 Southern Methodist 81 - UNC Greensboro 68 -5
Texas AM 82 - Lamar 61 0.929 Texas AM 97 - Lamar 71 -5
The Citadel 71 - Stetson 75 0.639 The Citadel 74 - Stetson 52 -26
Tulane 82 - Alcorn State 64 0.913 Tulane 84 - Alcorn State 51 -15
UCLA 83 - Boston 55 0.964 UCLA 71 - Boston 40 -3
UMBC 86 - Unranked 61 UMBC 120 - Unranked 61
Unranked 60 - San Jose State 85 Unranked 56 - San Jose State 93
Virginia 78 - Coppin State 49 0.953 Virginia 62 - Coppin State 45 12
Virginia Tech 78 - Winthrop 68 0.778 Virginia Tech 58 - Winthrop 52 4
Washington State 89 - Idaho 61 0.961 Washington State 90 - Idaho 67 5

GAMES OF 11-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 87 - Unranked 58 Abilene Christian 101 - Unranked 55
Arkansas State 79 - Arkansas Little Rock 67 0.782 Arkansas State 80 - Arkansas Little Rock 63 -5
Army 85 - Unranked 56 Army 101 - Unranked 48
Baylor 81 - Sam Houston State 71 0.726 Baylor 104 - Sam Houston State 67 -27
Boise State 100 - Unranked 48 Boise State 100 - Unranked 65
Bradley 80 - Texas San Antonio 68 0.781 Bradley 85 - Texas San Antonio 72 -1
Cal Baptist 71 - UC Riverside 75 0.626 Cal Baptist 69 - UC Riverside 70 -3
Central Florida 71 - Florida Atlantic 76 0.643 Central Florida 100 - Florida Atlantic 94 -11
Clemson 82 - Eastern Kentucky 68 0.844 Clemson 75 - Eastern Kentucky 62 1
Colorado State 85 - Denver 64 0.918 Colorado State 74 - Denver 65 12
Columbia 80 - Lehigh 67 0.812 Columbia 76 - Lehigh 75 12
Delaware State 82 - Unranked 59 Delaware State 70 - Unranked 54
Duke 78 - Kentucky 79 0.529 Duke 72 - Kentucky 77 4
East Carolina 90 - Unranked 52 East Carolina 110 - Unranked 73
Florida State 82 - Tarleton State 62 0.902 Florida State 72 - Tarleton State 52 0
Fordham 77 - Binghamton 62 0.874 Fordham 78 - Binghamton 63 0
George Washington 80 - North Carolina AT 63 0.901 George Washington 85 - North Carolina AT 80 12
Georgia 78 - North Florida 76 0.566 Georgia 90 - North Florida 77 -11
Georgia Tech 80 - Texas Southern 66 0.877 Georgia Tech 81 - Texas Southern 62 -5
High Point 81 - North Carolina Central 68 0.827 High Point 76 - North Carolina Central 60 -3
Illinois State 70 - Ohio 71 0.533 Illinois State 85 - Ohio 75 -11
Incarnate Word 72 - Prairie View 66 0.673 Incarnate Word 84 - Prairie View 81 3
Indiana State 81 - SIU Edwardsville 64 0.868 Indiana State 72 - SIU Edwardsville 77 22
Iona 75 - Delaware 69 0.671 Iona 58 - Delaware 64 12
Iowa 86 - South Dakota 69 0.894 Iowa 96 - South Dakota 77 -2
IPFW 76 - Bethune Cookman 67 0.726 IPFW 91 - Bethune Cookman 69 -13
IUPUI 83 - Unranked 64 IUPUI 97 - Unranked 55
James Madison 94 - Unranked 53 James Madison 100 - Unranked 52
La Salle 74 - Cornell 73 0.51 La Salle 93 - Cornell 77 -15
Lafayette 68 - Pennsylvania 70 0.537 Lafayette 65 - Pennsylvania 63 -4
Liberty 93 - Unranked 50 Liberty 81 - Unranked 45
Lipscomb 76 - Belmont 73 0.593 Lipscomb 79 - Belmont 80 4
Manhattan 83 - Unranked 60 Manhattan 88 - Unranked 71
Miami OH 76 - Maryland Eastern Shore 62 0.804 Miami OH 88 - Maryland Eastern Shore 70 -4
Michigan State 73 - Kansas 76 0.605 Michigan State 69 - Kansas 77 5
Mississippi 77 - South Alabama 65 0.816 Mississippi 64 - South Alabama 54 2
Mississippi State 86 - Southeast Louisiana 59 0.96 Mississippi State 80 - Southeast Louisiana 59 6
Morgan State 83 - Unranked 61 Morgan State 90 - Unranked 64
Navy 71 - Rider 69 0.567 Navy 79 - Rider 90 13
New Hampshire 71 - Fairfield 68 0.561 New Hampshire 56 - Fairfield 62 9
New Mexico 85 - Texas AM CC 68 0.871 New Mexico 100 - Texas AM CC 81 -2
NJ Tech 64 - Loyola MD 69 0.651 NJ Tech 50 - Loyola MD 68 13
North Dakota 87 - Unranked 58 North Dakota 85 - Unranked 54
Northern Colorado 97 - Unranked 58 Northern Colorado 113 - Unranked 56
Northern Illinois 67 - Monmouth 72 0.63 Northern Illinois 79 - Monmouth 66 -18
Northwestern 80 - Illinois Chicago 66 0.823 Northwestern 83 - Illinois Chicago 74 5
Oregon 90 - Portland 59 0.954 Oregon 80 - Portland 70 21
Oregon State 97 - Unranked 50 Oregon State 94 - Unranked 58
Penn State 87 - Saint Francis Penn 61 0.96 Penn State 92 - Saint Francis Penn 62 -4
Providence 83 - Hampton 54 0.966 Providence 60 - Hampton 51 20
Radford 75 - Old Dominion 65 0.754 Radford 87 - Old Dominion 75 -2
Rhode Island 96 - Unranked 55 Rhode Island 105 - Unranked 73
Rice 77 - UL Monroe 65 0.843 Rice 66 - UL Monroe 50 -4
Saint Josephs 70 - Villanova 74 0.621 Saint Josephs 83 - Villanova 76 -11
Saint Marys 79 - Akron 62 0.89 Saint Marys 87 - Akron 68 -2
Samford 97 - Unranked 55 Samford 108 - Unranked 52
San Diego 76 - Portland State 75 0.509 San Diego 76 - Portland State 85 10
San Diego State 100 - Unranked 43 San Diego State 100 - Unranked 49
Siena 65 - American 67 0.563 Siena 74 - American 66 -10
South Carolina 73 - Towson 65 0.731 South Carolina 80 - Towson 54 -18
South Florida 86 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 61 0.949 South Florida 85 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 69 9
Southern Miss 90 - Unranked 57 Southern Miss 104 - Unranked 65
Southern Utah 92 - Unranked 57 Southern Utah 107 - Unranked 54
Stanford 86 - Northern Arizona 62 0.91 Stanford 90 - Northern Arizona 64 -2
Stephen F Austin 89 - Unranked 54 Stephen F Austin 87 - Unranked 68
Syracuse 76 - Colgate 69 0.693 Syracuse 74 - Colgate 72 5
Temple 73 - Drexel 71 0.565 Temple 69 - Drexel 61 -6
Tennessee Tech 73 - West Georgia 67 0.686 Tennessee Tech 76 - West Georgia 73 3
Texas 85 - Chicago State 59 0.963 Texas 105 - Chicago State 58 -21
Texas Christian 79 - Texas State 62 0.903 Texas Christian 76 - Texas State 71 12
Texas El Paso 89 - Unranked 56 Texas El Paso 78 - Unranked 58
UC Davis 95 - Unranked 55 UC Davis 80 - Unranked 70
UC San Diego 80 - Sacramento State 63 0.907 UC San Diego 64 - Sacramento State 54 7
Utah 83 - Queens 67 0.847 Utah 96 - Queens 65 -15
Valparaiso 71 - Cleveland State 72 0.519 Valparaiso 67 - Cleveland State 75 7
Virginia Military Institute 87 - Unranked 61 Virginia Military Institute 102 - Unranked 56
Western Kentucky 95 - Unranked 55 Western Kentucky 104 - Unranked 76
William and Mary 62 - Norfolk State 78 0.827 William and Mary 84 - Norfolk State 73 -27
Xavier 82 - Jackson State 63 0.894 Xavier 94 - Jackson State 57 -18

GAMES OF 11-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 84 - Unranked 58 Alabama AM 103 - Unranked 69
Arkansas 78 - Troy 68 0.798 Arkansas 65 - Troy 49 -6
Auburn 87 - Kent State 59 0.953 Auburn 79 - Kent State 56 5
Bellarmine 72 - Southern Indiana 68 0.634 Bellarmine 69 - Southern Indiana 71 6
Brigham Young 83 - Queens 66 0.875 Brigham Young 99 - Queens 55 -27
Bucknell 75 - Mt St Marys 65 0.767 Bucknell 89 - Mt St Marys 93 14
Cal State Northridge 92 - Unranked 55 Cal State Northridge 98 - Unranked 50
Campbell 86 - Unranked 58 Campbell 83 - Unranked 40
Central Arkansas 86 - Unranked 61 Central Arkansas 108 - Unranked 49
Charlotte 74 - Richmond 69 0.637 Charlotte 65 - Richmond 48 -12
Colorado 84 - Cal State Fullerton 62 0.941 Colorado 83 - Cal State Fullerton 53 -8
Connecticut 90 - Le Moyne 56 0.967 Connecticut 90 - Le Moyne 49 -7
Creighton 92 - Houston Christian 60 0.981 Creighton 78 - Houston Christian 43 -3
Dartmouth 75 - Albany 67 0.718 Dartmouth 73 - Albany 87 22
Dayton 85 - Ball State 57 0.976 Dayton 77 - Ball State 69 20
East Tennessee State 89 - Unranked 55 East Tennessee State 82 - Unranked 54
Florida Gulf Coast 63 - Saint Bonaventure 75 0.8 Florida Gulf Coast 65 - Saint Bonaventure 74 -3
George Mason 75 - Central Michigan 62 0.853 George Mason 69 - Central Michigan 70 14
Houston 86 - UL Lafayette 57 0.958 Houston 91 - UL Lafayette 45 -17
Illinois 89 - Oakland 63 0.931 Illinois 66 - Oakland 54 14
Jacksonville State 71 - Georgia State 70 0.529 Jacksonville State 72 - Georgia State 67 -4
Kennesaw St 91 - Unranked 60 Kennesaw St 94 - Unranked 59
Longwood 77 - Milwaukee 67 0.762 Longwood 76 - Milwaukee 62 -4
Massachusetts 73 - Louisiana Tech 77 0.646 Massachusetts 66 - Louisiana Tech 76 6
Mercer 89 - Unranked 55 Mercer 101 - Unranked 43
Mercyhurst 69 - Canisius 71 0.577 Mercyhurst 62 - Canisius 52 -12
Middle Tennessee 76 - Evansville 65 0.762 Middle Tennessee 80 - Evansville 63 -6
Minnesota 70 - North Texas 71 0.548 Minnesota 51 - North Texas 54 2
NC State 83 - Coastal Carolina 61 0.942 NC State 82 - Coastal Carolina 70 10
Nebraska 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 62 0.922 Nebraska 86 - Fairleigh Dickinson 60 -3
Nevada 84 - Weber State 60 0.929 Nevada 88 - Weber State 58 -6
Northeastern 73 - Harvard 68 0.64 Northeastern 78 - Harvard 56 -17
Presbyterian 71 - Wofford 72 0.556 Presbyterian 71 - Wofford 68 -4
Saint Johns 87 - Wagner 61 0.954 Saint Johns 66 - Wagner 45 5
San Francisco 83 - Long Beach State 71 0.812 San Francisco 84 - Long Beach State 54 -18
Santa Clara 83 - North Dakota State 66 0.912 Santa Clara 80 - North Dakota State 88 25
SE Missouri State 85 - Unranked 61 SE Missouri State 93 - Unranked 38
Seton Hall 69 - Hofstra 70 0.504 Seton Hall 48 - Hofstra 49 0
Southern California 85 - Texas Arlington 65 0.907 Southern California 98 - Texas Arlington 95 17
Tennessee 84 - Montana 58 0.935 Tennessee 92 - Montana 57 -9
Tennessee State 73 - Howard 72 0.538 Tennessee State 84 - Howard 88 5
Texas AM Commerce 69 - Southern 70 0.519 Texas AM Commerce 70 - Southern 68 -3
Texas Tech 82 - Wyoming 69 0.818 Texas Tech 96 - Wyoming 49 -34
Toledo 76 - Wright State 74 0.56 Toledo 86 - Wright State 77 -7
Tulsa 77 - Oral Roberts 70 0.707 Tulsa 85 - Oral Roberts 76 -2
UC Santa Barbara 77 - Fresno State 67 0.742 UC Santa Barbara 91 - Fresno State 86 5
Utah State 105 - Unranked 48 Utah State 117 - Unranked 53
Utah Tech 86 - Unranked 60 Utah Tech 90 - Unranked 59
Vanderbilt 76 - California 77 0.539 Vanderbilt 85 - California 69 -17
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Merrimack 62 0.809 Virginia Commonwealth 63 - Merrimack 42 -9
Wake Forest 83 - South Carolina Upstate 63 0.916 Wake Forest 85 - South Carolina Upstate 80 15
Washington 99 - Unranked 51 Washington 77 - Unranked 62
Western Carolina 88 - Unranked 54 Western Carolina 99 - Unranked 64
Western Illinois 72 - Green Bay 67 0.662 Western Illinois 73 - Green Bay 87 19
Yale 95 - Unranked 52 Yale 100 - Unranked 46

GAMES OF 11-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Buffalo 74 - Bryant 76 0.542 Buffalo 64 - Bryant 87 21
Cal Poly 70 - Seattle 74 0.631 Cal Poly 75 - Seattle 71 -8
Chattanooga 75 - Morehead State 67 0.673 Chattanooga 76 - Morehead State 62 -6
Denver 90 - Unranked 60 Denver 86 - Unranked 63
Florida International 88 - Unranked 60 Florida International 110 - Unranked 55
Grand Canyon 72 - Arizona State 76 0.613 Grand Canyon 76 - Arizona State 87 7
IUPUI 68 - Eastern Michigan 69 0.518 IUPUI 71 - Eastern Michigan 74 2
Jacksonville 74 - South Carolina State 64 0.794 Jacksonville 71 - South Carolina State 62 1
Kansas State 75 - Louisiana State 74 0.529 Kansas State 65 - Louisiana State 76 12
Missouri 86 - Mississippi Valley State 56 0.989 Missouri 111 - Mississippi Valley State 39 -42
Nevada Las Vegas 80 - Omaha 68 0.822 Nevada Las Vegas 80 - Omaha 69 1
New Mexico State 73 - Texas AM CC 71 0.558 New Mexico State 83 - Texas AM CC 82 1
New Orleans 72 - Lindenwood 69 0.605 New Orleans 82 - Lindenwood 74 -5
North Dakota 66 - Utah Valley 76 0.725 North Dakota 77 - Utah Valley 71 -16
Northern Kentucky 73 - Nicholls State 68 0.665 Northern Kentucky 59 - Nicholls State 61 7
Oklahoma State 77 - Southern Illinois 68 0.807 Oklahoma State 85 - Southern Illinois 78 2
Pacific 76 - Northern Arizona 71 0.591 Pacific 57 - Northern Arizona 60 8
Robert Morris 73 - Stonehill 67 0.678 Robert Morris 63 - Stonehill 51 -6
South Dakota 93 - Unranked 59 South Dakota 92 - Unranked 69
South Dakota State 80 - Northern Colorado 74 0.658 South Dakota State 69 - Northern Colorado 78 15
Tarleton State 87 - Unranked 57 Tarleton State 88 - Unranked 57
The Citadel 87 - Unranked 59 The Citadel 79 - Unranked 54
UC Riverside 96 - Unranked 55 UC Riverside 79 - Unranked 51
UL Monroe 85 - Unranked 59 UL Monroe 110 - Unranked 48
UMBC 73 - Coppin State 64 0.714 UMBC 92 - Coppin State 67 -16
Wichita State 79 - Northern Iowa 69 0.769 Wichita State 79 - Northern Iowa 73 4

GAMES OF 11-15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Belmont 74 0.646 Air Force 71 - Belmont 79 3
Boston College 72 - Temple 74 0.569 Boston College 72 - Temple 69 -5
Brown 72 - New Hampshire 67 0.628 Brown 76 - New Hampshire 58 -13
Butler 72 - Southern Methodist 76 0.611 Butler 81 - Southern Methodist 70 -15
Cal Baptist 78 - LIU Brooklyn 64 0.85 Cal Baptist 90 - LIU Brooklyn 77 1
Charleston Southern 71 - UT Rio Grande Valley 72 0.531 Charleston Southern 76 - UT Rio Grande Valley 86 9
Cincinnati 84 - Nicholls State 63 0.925 Cincinnati 86 - Nicholls State 49 -16
College of Charleston 74 - Florida Atlantic 79 0.643 College of Charleston 119 - Florida Atlantic 116 -8
DePaul 70 - Duquesne 73 0.602 DePaul 84 - Duquesne 58 -29
Fairfield 84 - Unranked 57 Fairfield 93 - Unranked 44
Florida State 74 - Florida 80 0.686 Florida State 74 - Florida 87 7
Furman 76 - Tulane 74 0.584 Furman 75 - Tulane 67 -6
Gardner Webb 78 - Elon 68 0.762 Gardner Webb 80 - Elon 79 9
Georgia Tech 75 - Georgia 78 0.582 Georgia Tech 69 - Georgia 77 5
Gonzaga 94 - UMass Lowell 65 0.945 Gonzaga 113 - UMass Lowell 54 -30
High Point 74 - Alabama Birmingham 77 0.58 High Point 68 - Alabama Birmingham 65 -6
Holy Cross 70 - Sacred Heart 73 0.601 Holy Cross 82 - Sacred Heart 75 -10
Iona 68 - Vermont 71 0.571 Iona 62 - Vermont 59 -6
Iowa 76 - Washington State 79 0.594 Iowa 76 - Washington State 66 -13
Manhattan 62 - Fordham 75 0.829 Manhattan 78 - Fordham 76 -15
Marist 70 - Army 65 0.632 Marist 91 - Army 88 2
Maryland 71 - Marquette 77 0.669 Maryland 74 - Marquette 78 -2
Memphis 84 - Ohio 66 0.937 Memphis 94 - Ohio 70 -6
Michigan 74 - Texas Christian 77 0.554 Michigan 76 - Texas Christian 64 -15
North Alabama 74 - Samford 75 0.526 North Alabama 96 - Samford 97 0
North Carolina 83 - American 61 0.936 North Carolina 107 - American 55 -30
North Carolina Central 71 - Georgia Southern 74 0.637 North Carolina Central 75 - Georgia Southern 80 2
Northwestern 87 - Eastern Illinois 57 0.964 Northwestern 67 - Eastern Illinois 58 21
Old Dominion 72 - Maryland Eastern Shore 66 0.672 Old Dominion 73 - Maryland Eastern Shore 71 4
Oregon State 79 - Cal State Fullerton 65 0.853 Oregon State 70 - Cal State Fullerton 51 -5
Pennsylvania 68 - Saint Josephs 74 0.687 Pennsylvania 69 - Saint Josephs 86 11
Pittsburgh 77 - West Virginia 70 0.685 Pittsburgh 86 - West Virginia 62 -17
Princeton 73 - Loyola Ill 70 0.579 Princeton 68 - Loyola Ill 73 8
Purdue 79 - Alabama 78 0.537 Purdue 87 - Alabama 78 -8
Quinnipiac 72 - Maine 69 0.601 Quinnipiac 58 - Maine 55 0
Robert Morris 74 - Lindenwood 67 0.707 Robert Morris 67 - Lindenwood 53 -7
Rutgers 81 - Monmouth 61 0.893 Rutgers 98 - Monmouth 81 3
Saint Thomas 92 - Unranked 54 Saint Thomas 102 - Unranked 54
South Carolina Upstate 67 - UNC Wilmington 79 0.809 South Carolina Upstate 85 - UNC Wilmington 89 -8
South Florida 81 - West Georgia 61 0.952 South Florida 74 - West Georgia 55 1
Stonehill 69 - New Orleans 71 0.574 Stonehill 80 - New Orleans 54 -28
Tennessee Tech 73 - Virginia Military Institute 71 0.554 Tennessee Tech 72 - Virginia Military Institute 71 1
Texas AM 73 - Ohio State 75 0.571 Texas AM 78 - Ohio State 64 -16
Texas Arlington 92 - Unranked 57 Texas Arlington 95 - Unranked 69
UCLA 86 - Lehigh 58 0.958 UCLA 85 - Lehigh 45 -12
Villanova 67 - Virginia 68 0.541 Villanova 60 - Virginia 70 9
Virginia Tech 74 - Penn State 79 0.637 Virginia Tech 64 - Penn State 86 17
Western Michigan 66 - SIU Edwardsville 69 0.578 Western Michigan 60 - SIU Edwardsville 79 16
Winthrop 80 - William and Mary 62 0.902 Winthrop 86 - William and Mary 85 17
Wisconsin 73 - Arizona 79 0.667 Wisconsin 103 - Arizona 88 -21

GAMES OF 11-16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 64 - Texas State 71 0.68 Abilene Christian 72 - Texas State 60 -19
Albany 69 - Siena 72 0.589 Albany 70 - Siena 60 -13
Arkansas State 75 - Stephen F Austin 68 0.686 Arkansas State 59 - Stephen F Austin 49 -3
Ball State 66 - Indiana State 80 0.811 Ball State 84 - Indiana State 94 -4
Bethune Cookman 73 - South Carolina State 68 0.643 Bethune Cookman 75 - South Carolina State 62 -8
Binghamton 85 - Unranked 59 Binghamton 77 - Unranked 48
Boston 68 - Dartmouth 69 0.557 Boston 78 - Dartmouth 50 -29
Bradley 82 - Northern Illinois 59 0.943 Bradley 76 - Northern Illinois 60 7
Brigham Young 88 - Idaho 61 0.961 Brigham Young 95 - Idaho 71 3
Brown 73 - Holy Cross 66 0.713 Brown 65 - Holy Cross 73 15
Bucknell 70 - Richmond 71 0.525 Bucknell 80 - Richmond 76 -5
Cal State Bakersfield 69 - Fresno State 71 0.558 Cal State Bakersfield 74 - Fresno State 56 -20
Canisius 72 - SIU Edwardsville 69 0.595 Canisius 58 - SIU Edwardsville 76 21
Cleveland State 73 - Eastern Michigan 63 0.728 Cleveland State 71 - Eastern Michigan 63 2
Columbia 77 - Mercyhurst 64 0.857 Columbia 77 - Mercyhurst 63 -1
Cornell 81 - Lafayette 63 0.928 Cornell 81 - Lafayette 71 8
Creighton 82 - UMKC 63 0.875 Creighton 79 - UMKC 56 -4
Davidson 76 - East Tennessee State 67 0.77 Davidson 76 - East Tennessee State 70 3
Dayton 101 - Unranked 46 Dayton 76 - Unranked 55
Delaware State 82 - Unranked 59 Delaware State 93 - Unranked 51
Detroit 68 - Toledo 79 0.805 Detroit 67 - Toledo 82 4
Drake 78 - Florida Gulf Coast 61 0.891 Drake 63 - Florida Gulf Coast 61 15
Drexel 72 - La Salle 68 0.616 Drexel 68 - La Salle 71 7
Duke 87 - Wofford 61 0.959 Duke 86 - Wofford 35 -25
East Carolina 66 - George Mason 69 0.604 East Carolina 78 - George Mason 77 -4
Evansville 70 - Radford 71 0.51 Evansville 81 - Radford 92 10
Florida Atlantic 79 - Liberty 65 0.804 Florida Atlantic 77 - Liberty 74 11
Georgetown 71 - Notre Dame 74 0.596 Georgetown 63 - Notre Dame 84 18
Hampton 59 - Norfolk State 78 0.869 Hampton 58 - Norfolk State 67 -10
Houston Christian 85 - Unranked 65 Houston Christian 84 - Unranked 64
Illinois Chicago 94 - Unranked 55 Illinois Chicago 117 - Unranked 59
Incarnate Word 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 69 0.651 Incarnate Word 92 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 64 -23
Indiana 76 - South Carolina 70 0.672 Indiana 87 - South Carolina 71 -10
IPFW 78 - Southern Indiana 66 0.837 IPFW 93 - Southern Indiana 74 -7
Kansas 87 - Oakland 61 0.926 Kansas 78 - Oakland 57 5
Kennesaw St 75 - Presbyterian 73 0.602 Kennesaw St 85 - Presbyterian 67 -16
Long Beach State 83 - Portland 67 0.835 Long Beach State 61 - Portland 63 18
Longwood 72 - Tennessee Martin 68 0.616 Longwood 64 - Tennessee Martin 62 2
Marshall 75 - Bellarmine 69 0.657 Marshall 83 - Bellarmine 62 -15
Massachusetts 75 - Hofstra 74 0.519 Massachusetts 71 - Hofstra 75 5
Michigan State 86 - Bowling Green 59 0.964 Michigan State 86 - Bowling Green 72 13
Middle Tennessee 72 - Murray State 68 0.599 Middle Tennessee 67 - Murray State 88 25
Minnesota 75 - Yale 70 0.639 Minnesota 59 - Yale 56 2
Mississippi 73 - Colorado State 74 0.542 Mississippi 84 - Colorado State 69 -16
Missouri State 74 - Tulsa 73 0.533 Missouri State 111 - Tulsa 106 -4
Morgan State 69 - NJ Tech 65 0.648 Morgan State 81 - NJ Tech 69 -8
Mt St Marys 71 - Saint Francis Penn 70 0.55 Mt St Marys 66 - Saint Francis Penn 58 -7
Nevada 83 - Santa Clara 69 0.859 Nevada 85 - Santa Clara 59 -12
New Hampshire 71 - Sacred Heart 72 0.515 New Hampshire 63 - Sacred Heart 80 16
North Carolina Central 74 - William and Mary 70 0.636 North Carolina Central 78 - William and Mary 76 2
Northeastern 68 - Central Connecticut State 71 0.589 Northeastern 80 - Central Connecticut State 62 -21
Oklahoma 83 - Stetson 66 0.883 Oklahoma 85 - Stetson 64 -4
Oral Roberts 90 - Unranked 57 Oral Roberts 87 - Unranked 52
Providence 83 - Green Bay 59 0.96 Providence 79 - Green Bay 65 10
Rice 76 - Northwestern State 67 0.777 Rice 77 - Northwestern State 75 7
Sacramento State 67 - Cal State Northridge 73 0.69 Sacramento State 69 - Cal State Northridge 79 4
Saint Bonaventure 83 - Le Moyne 62 0.903 Saint Bonaventure 71 - Le Moyne 52 2
Saint Louis 75 - Loyola Marymount 72 0.585 Saint Louis 77 - Loyola Marymount 71 -3
San Diego 72 - Idaho State 70 0.549 San Diego 66 - Idaho State 78 14
San Francisco 86 - Chicago State 59 0.954 San Francisco 82 - Chicago State 37 -18
Seton Hall 76 - Wagner 59 0.871 Seton Hall 54 - Wagner 28 -9
South Alabama 71 - Mercer 68 0.574 South Alabama 75 - Mercer 66 -6
Southern Utah 74 - Omaha 72 0.547 Southern Utah 79 - Omaha 73 -4
Stony Brook 91 - Unranked 56 Stony Brook 93 - Unranked 45
Syracuse 77 - Youngstown State 72 0.61 Syracuse 104 - Youngstown State 95 -4
Tennessee State 73 - Alabama AM 67 0.659 Tennessee State 81 - Alabama AM 71 -4
Tennessee Tech 74 - UT Rio Grande Valley 73 0.521 Tennessee Tech 58 - UT Rio Grande Valley 83 26
Texas 90 - Mississippi Valley State 53 0.995 Texas 89 - Mississippi Valley State 43 -9
Texas San Antonio 76 - Arkansas Little Rock 70 0.647 Texas San Antonio 64 - Arkansas Little Rock 81 23
Towson 71 - James Madison 69 0.537 Towson 67 - James Madison 63 -2
UC Irvine 83 - Pepperdine 66 0.896 UC Irvine 80 - Pepperdine 62 -1
UC San Diego 78 - Seattle 69 0.759 UC San Diego 71 - Seattle 84 22
UMBC 67 - Saint Peters 71 0.641 UMBC 61 - Saint Peters 69 4
UNC Greensboro 94 - Unranked 52 UNC Greensboro 99 - Unranked 54
Vanderbilt 81 - Jackson State 64 0.875 Vanderbilt 94 - Jackson State 81 4
Virginia Commonwealth 83 - Loyola MD 57 0.95 Virginia Commonwealth 83 - Loyola MD 57 0
Virginia Military Institute 70 - Charleston Southern 71 0.519 Virginia Military Institute 80 - Charleston Southern 69 -12
Western Illinois 72 - Central Arkansas 66 0.701 Western Illinois 63 - Central Arkansas 61 4
Winthrop 76 - Georgia Southern 67 0.79 Winthrop 87 - Georgia Southern 89 11
Wright State 94 - Unranked 56 Wright State 92 - Unranked 56
Wyoming 82 - Utah Tech 64 0.906 Wyoming 86 - Utah Tech 69 1
Xavier 75 - Wake Forest 74 0.502 Xavier 75 - Wake Forest 60 -14

GAMES OF 11-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 80 - Saint Thomas 65 0.861 Arizona State 81 - Saint Thomas 66 0
Baylor 86 - Tarleton State 61 0.908 Baylor 104 - Tarleton State 41 -38
Boise State 75 - Clemson 73 0.565 Boise State 84 - Clemson 71 -11
Brown 71 - Sacred Heart 67 0.627 Brown 89 - Sacred Heart 70 -15
Coastal Carolina 70 - Jacksonville State 68 0.538 Coastal Carolina 53 - Jacksonville State 71 20
College of Charleston 77 - Liberty 68 0.743 College of Charleston 47 - Liberty 68 30
Colorado 85 - Harvard 60 0.95 Colorado 88 - Harvard 66 3
Denver 73 - Montana State 76 0.587 Denver 79 - Montana State 78 -4
Eastern Washington 82 - Cal Poly 68 0.859 Eastern Washington 78 - Cal Poly 82 18
Fairleigh Dickinson 73 - Manhattan 69 0.618 Fairleigh Dickinson 85 - Manhattan 82 1
Hawaii 75 - Weber State 66 0.731 Hawaii 73 - Weber State 68 4
Illinois State 89 - Unranked 54 Illinois State 107 - Unranked 52
Lamar 66 - Sam Houston State 78 0.801 Lamar 72 - Sam Houston State 85 1
Lindenwood 69 - Stonehill 70 0.53 Lindenwood 75 - Stonehill 74 -2
Merrimack 68 - Princeton 70 0.541 Merrimack 57 - Princeton 68 9
Miami 86 - Coppin State 55 0.958 Miami 93 - Coppin State 63 1
Mississippi State 78 - Utah 75 0.578 Mississippi State 78 - Utah 73 -2
Navy 73 - Campbell 67 0.715 Navy 66 - Campbell 86 26
Nebraska 70 - Saint Marys 77 0.67 Nebraska 74 - Saint Marys 77 -4
New Hampshire 73 - Holy Cross 71 0.577 New Hampshire 72 - Holy Cross 74 4
Oregon 81 - Troy 65 0.909 Oregon 82 - Troy 61 -5
Robert Morris 72 - New Orleans 69 0.616 Robert Morris 73 - New Orleans 62 -8
Saint Johns 82 - New Mexico 78 0.615 Saint Johns 85 - New Mexico 71 -10
Samford 81 - Texas Southern 65 0.891 Samford 97 - Texas Southern 82 1
San Jose State 63 - UC Santa Barbara 81 0.866 San Jose State 59 - UC Santa Barbara 64 -13
SE Missouri State 67 - Chattanooga 78 0.778 SE Missouri State 82 - Chattanooga 87 -6
Southern 85 - Unranked 58 Southern 131 - Unranked 42
Southern California 81 - California 72 0.753 Southern California 66 - California 71 14
Stanford 82 - UC Davis 68 0.838 Stanford 79 - UC Davis 65 0
Tennessee 83 - Austin Peay 60 0.934 Tennessee 103 - Austin Peay 68 -12
The Citadel 74 - North Carolina AT 69 0.649 The Citadel 73 - North Carolina AT 82 14
Washington 82 - UMass Lowell 69 0.836 Washington 74 - UMass Lowell 69 8
Western Kentucky 75 - Lipscomb 74 0.569 Western Kentucky 66 - Lipscomb 61 -4
Western Michigan 67 - Canisius 73 0.652 Western Michigan 92 - Canisius 69 -29
William and Mary 68 - Georgia Southern 76 0.742 William and Mary 102 - Georgia Southern 87 -23
Winthrop 79 - North Carolina Central 65 0.867 Winthrop 77 - North Carolina Central 75 12


Number of DI Games: 301
Number Correct: 224 = 74.4%
Expected Number Correct: 222.23 = 73.8%
Average Error: 9.84
Average Signed Error: -1.31

GAMES OF 11-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 96 - Unranked 53 Alabama Birmingham 109 - Unranked 64
Alabama State 87 - Unranked 59 Alabama State 115 - Unranked 64
Arkansas 84 - Pacific 59 0.948 Arkansas 91 - Pacific 72 6
Auburn 90 - North Alabama 62 0.958 Auburn 102 - North Alabama 69 -5
Cal State Fullerton 68 - Idaho State 70 0.604 Cal State Fullerton 62 - Idaho State 61 -3
Delaware 74 - Bryant 70 0.62 Delaware 84 - Bryant 85 5
Florida International 72 - Howard 73 0.532 Florida International 70 - Howard 75 4
George Washington 85 - NJ Tech 55 0.974 George Washington 84 - NJ Tech 64 10
Georgia State 89 - Unranked 58 Georgia State 106 - Unranked 66
High Point 76 - American 61 0.857 High Point 80 - American 73 8
Iowa State 92 - IUPUI 55 0.974 Iowa State 87 - IUPUI 52 2
Louisiana Tech 99 - Unranked 48 Louisiana Tech 105 - Unranked 67
Maryland Eastern Shore 81 - Unranked 62 Maryland Eastern Shore 113 - Unranked 58
Mcneese State 64 - North Texas 72 0.767 Mcneese State 68 - North Texas 61 -15
Michigan 82 - Miami OH 62 0.862 Michigan 94 - Miami OH 67 -7
NC State 79 - Colgate 65 0.837 NC State 72 - Colgate 49 -9
North Florida 83 - UNC Asheville 69 0.794 North Florida 75 - UNC Asheville 89 28
Pittsburgh 90 - Virginia Military Institute 55 0.979 Pittsburgh 93 - Virginia Military Institute 48 -10
Radford 92 - Unranked 55 Radford 96 - Unranked 50
San Diego State 69 - Gonzaga 82 0.744 San Diego State 67 - Gonzaga 80 0
South Alabama 91 - Unranked 54 South Alabama 95 - Unranked 61
South Dakota State 95 - Unranked 54 South Dakota State 89 - Unranked 41
Southern Illinois 76 - North Dakota State 72 0.638 Southern Illinois 69 - North Dakota State 44 -21
Southern Methodist 87 - Prairie View 60 0.962 Southern Methodist 110 - Prairie View 69 -14
Texas Tech 94 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 52 0.991 Texas Tech 98 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 64 8
UL Monroe 68 - Southeast Louisiana 71 0.614 UL Monroe 67 - Southeast Louisiana 70 0
UMKC 87 - Unranked 55 UMKC 119 - Unranked 19
Utah State 87 - Montana 64 0.899 Utah State 95 - Montana 83 11
Washington State 81 - Northern Colorado 72 0.759 Washington State 83 - Northern Colorado 69 -5
Wichita State 87 - Monmouth 64 0.944 Wichita State 70 - Monmouth 66 19
Wisconsin 87 - UT Rio Grande Valley 62 0.937 Wisconsin 87 - UT Rio Grande Valley 84 22

GAMES OF 11-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 72 - Queens 68 0.614 Appalachian State 65 - Queens 53 -8
Belmont 80 - Oral Roberts 66 0.875 Belmont 90 - Oral Roberts 80 4
Binghamton 62 - Longwood 75 0.889 Binghamton 60 - Longwood 66 -7
Boston 65 - Wagner 62 0.603 Boston 58 - Wagner 60 5
Boston College 77 - Loyola MD 61 0.888 Boston College 82 - Loyola MD 61 -5
Bowling Green 76 - Niagara 69 0.721 Bowling Green 76 - Niagara 68 -1
Central Florida 86 - Tennessee Tech 55 0.963 Central Florida 80 - Tennessee Tech 69 20
Charlotte 74 - Gardner Webb 69 0.653 Charlotte 60 - Gardner Webb 54 -1
Chicago State 65 - Eastern Kentucky 78 0.838 Chicago State 66 - Eastern Kentucky 86 7
Connecticut 87 - Texas AM Commerce 55 0.993 Connecticut 81 - Texas AM Commerce 46 -3
Connecticut 103 - Unranked 44 Connecticut 81 - Unranked 46
DePaul 81 - Eastern Illinois 66 0.814 DePaul 78 - Eastern Illinois 69 6
Duquesne 76 - Milwaukee 68 0.714 Duquesne 74 - Milwaukee 80 14
Fairfield 61 - Drexel 71 0.753 Fairfield 61 - Drexel 67 -4
Florida 96 - Florida AM 57 0.997 Florida 84 - Florida AM 60 15
Florida State 74 - Hofstra 73 0.513 Florida State 79 - Hofstra 61 -17
Fordham 91 - Unranked 55 Fordham 101 - Unranked 61
Georgia 85 - Alabama AM 57 0.963 Georgia 93 - Alabama AM 45 -20
Green Bay 69 - SIU Edwardsville 75 0.687 Green Bay 82 - SIU Edwardsville 57 -31
Idaho 89 - Unranked 60 Idaho 101 - Unranked 58
Iowa 84 - Rider 63 0.946 Iowa 83 - Rider 58 -4
Kansas 86 - UNC Wilmington 66 0.94 Kansas 84 - UNC Wilmington 66 2
Kansas State 87 - Mississippi Valley State 52 0.963 Kansas State 74 - Mississippi Valley State 56 17
Kentucky 91 - Lipscomb 63 0.978 Kentucky 97 - Lipscomb 68 -1
Louisiana State 88 - Charleston Southern 57 0.991 Louisiana State 77 - Charleston Southern 68 22
Louisville 82 - Bellarmine 59 0.904 Louisville 100 - Bellarmine 68 -9
Loyola Ill 78 - Southern Utah 68 0.773 Loyola Ill 76 - Southern Utah 72 6
Marist 77 - Dartmouth 63 0.81 Marist 75 - Dartmouth 62 1
Marquette 76 - Purdue 77 0.512 Marquette 76 - Purdue 58 -19
Maryland 85 - Canisius 55 0.971 Maryland 108 - Canisius 37 -41
Mercyhurst 84 - Unranked 55 Mercyhurst 98 - Unranked 45
Michigan State 82 - Samford 71 0.821 Michigan State 83 - Samford 75 3
Minnesota 77 - Cleveland State 63 0.866 Minnesota 58 - Cleveland State 47 3
Missouri State 80 - Texas Arlington 75 0.649 Missouri State 78 - Texas Arlington 68 -5
Navy 70 - Quinnipiac 75 0.663 Navy 63 - Quinnipiac 74 6
Northern Arizona 88 - Unranked 56 Northern Arizona 82 - Unranked 47
Northern Iowa 77 - Western Illinois 63 0.886 Northern Iowa 82 - Western Illinois 56 -12
Northern Kentucky 61 - Cincinnati 80 0.919 Northern Kentucky 60 - Cincinnati 76 -3
Northwestern 82 - Montana State 65 0.874 Northwestern 72 - Montana State 69 14
Northwestern State 88 - Unranked 58 Northwestern State 121 - Unranked 49
Notre Dame 77 - North Dakota 66 0.763 Notre Dame 75 - North Dakota 58 -6
Ohio State 88 - Evansville 58 0.967 Ohio State 80 - Evansville 30 -20
Old Dominion 84 - Unranked 60 Old Dominion 71 - Unranked 55
Providence 81 - Delaware State 55 0.959 Providence 78 - Delaware State 48 -4
Santa Clara 74 - UC Riverside 75 0.512 Santa Clara 96 - UC Riverside 54 -43
South Carolina Upstate 90 - Unranked 61 South Carolina Upstate 95 - Unranked 63
Tennessee State 88 - Unranked 60 Tennessee State 110 - Unranked 33
Texas Christian 86 - Alcorn State 59 0.96 Texas Christian 71 - Alcorn State 48 4
Tulane 78 - Bethune Cookman 66 0.837 Tulane 72 - Bethune Cookman 57 -3
UL Lafayette 73 - Rice 74 0.534 UL Lafayette 61 - Rice 83 21
UMBC 73 - Hampton 67 0.674 UMBC 68 - Hampton 78 16
Vermont 76 - Buffalo 63 0.806 Vermont 78 - Buffalo 67 2
Villanova 79 - Pennsylvania 62 0.887 Villanova 93 - Pennsylvania 49 -27
Wake Forest 78 - Western Carolina 62 0.817 Wake Forest 82 - Western Carolina 69 3
West Georgia 61 - Troy 77 0.95 West Georgia 65 - Troy 84 3

GAMES OF 11-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 81 - Illinois 80 0.523 Alabama 100 - Illinois 87 -12
Arizona State 83 - Cal Poly 65 0.889 Arizona State 93 - Cal Poly 89 14
Army 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.616 Army 84 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70 -10
Ball State 75 - Detroit 69 0.71 Ball State 59 - Detroit 70 17
Cal Baptist 73 - Northern Colorado 76 0.613 Cal Baptist 68 - Northern Colorado 79 8
Central Michigan 91 - Unranked 54 Central Michigan 86 - Unranked 52
Dayton 79 - New Mexico State 64 0.874 Dayton 74 - New Mexico State 53 -6
Fresno State 77 - Prairie View 62 0.874 Fresno State 94 - Prairie View 83 4
Furman 95 - Unranked 52 Furman 124 - Unranked 48
George Mason 82 - Coppin State 56 0.946 George Mason 93 - Coppin State 55 -12
Georgetown 74 - Mt St Marys 71 0.585 Georgetown 79 - Mt St Marys 51 -25
Gonzaga 96 - Long Beach State 60 0.952 Gonzaga 84 - Long Beach State 41 -7
Grand Canyon 80 - UC Davis 72 0.777 Grand Canyon 68 - UC Davis 75 15
Holy Cross 88 - Unranked 58 Holy Cross 88 - Unranked 49
Kennesaw St 75 - Abilene Christian 71 0.599 Kennesaw St 84 - Abilene Christian 78 -2
Lehigh 86 - Unranked 60 Lehigh 100 - Unranked 53
LIU Brooklyn 70 - Columbia 77 0.708 LIU Brooklyn 72 - Columbia 80 1
Morehead State 66 - Austin Peay 74 0.691 Morehead State 63 - Austin Peay 58 -13
Murray State 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 57 0.956 Murray State 79 - Maryland Eastern Shore 61 10
Nevada Las Vegas 82 - Pepperdine 70 0.831 Nevada Las Vegas 80 - Pepperdine 59 -9
New Hampshire 81 - Unranked 61 New Hampshire 78 - Unranked 64
Nicholls State 67 - Towson 71 0.623 Nicholls State 64 - Towson 70 2
North Carolina AT 77 - Morgan State 68 0.79 North Carolina AT 86 - Morgan State 83 6
Northern Illinois 69 - Elon 72 0.593 Northern Illinois 48 - Elon 75 24
Penn State 85 - IPFW 69 0.871 Penn State 102 - IPFW 89 3
Rhode Island 79 - Lafayette 61 0.887 Rhode Island 86 - Lafayette 72 4
Richmond 69 - Maine 64 0.663 Richmond 70 - Maine 66 1
Rutgers 77 - Merrimack 63 0.885 Rutgers 74 - Merrimack 63 3
Saint Bonaventure 95 - Unranked 50 Saint Bonaventure 76 - Unranked 54
Saint Francis Penn 86 - Unranked 58 Saint Francis Penn 96 - Unranked 57
Saint Marys 102 - Unranked 47 Saint Marys 78 - Unranked 38
Saint Peters 88 - Unranked 54 Saint Peters 116 - Unranked 51
South Dakota State 80 - Southern Miss 70 0.768 South Dakota State 101 - Southern Miss 76 -15
Southern California 84 - San Jose State 59 0.952 Southern California 82 - San Jose State 68 11
Stanford 81 - Norfolk State 64 0.887 Stanford 70 - Norfolk State 63 10
Stony Brook 71 - Yale 79 0.674 Stony Brook 64 - Yale 86 14
Texas AM 87 - Southern 57 0.978 Texas AM 71 - Southern 54 13
The Citadel 66 - College of Charleston 82 0.844 The Citadel 61 - College of Charleston 76 -1
Tulsa 78 - Arkansas Little Rock 73 0.669 Tulsa 57 - Arkansas Little Rock 71 19
UC Santa Barbara 80 - Texas El Paso 65 0.772 UC Santa Barbara 76 - Texas El Paso 79 18
UCLA 77 - Idaho State 59 0.916 UCLA 84 - Idaho State 70 4
UMass Lowell 94 - Unranked 57 UMass Lowell 121 - Unranked 66
Virginia Tech 76 - Jacksonville 62 0.884 Virginia Tech 64 - Jacksonville 74 24
West Virginia 80 - Iona 67 0.859 West Virginia 86 - Iona 43 -30
Western Kentucky 81 - Jackson State 64 0.9 Western Kentucky 79 - Jackson State 62 0
Western Michigan 72 - South Dakota 78 0.658 Western Michigan 76 - South Dakota 80 -2
Xavier 82 - Siena 60 0.908 Xavier 80 - Siena 55 -3

GAMES OF 11-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bucknell 82 - NJ Tech 58 0.958 Bucknell 81 - NJ Tech 64 7
California 80 - Air Force 60 0.898 California 78 - Air Force 69 11
Central Arkansas 72 - SE Missouri State 71 0.52 Central Arkansas 73 - SE Missouri State 77 5
Chattanooga 92 - Unranked 56 Chattanooga 72 - Unranked 52
Clemson 81 - Radford 67 0.861 Clemson 79 - Radford 51 -14
Cornell 77 - Robert Morris 66 0.848 Cornell 76 - Robert Morris 86 21
Drake 75 - Miami 76 0.539 Drake 80 - Miami 69 -12
Florida Atlantic 82 - Oklahoma State 78 0.624 Florida Atlantic 86 - Oklahoma State 78 -4
Illinois Chicago 76 - James Madison 75 0.523 Illinois Chicago 81 - James Madison 99 19
Indiana 83 - UNC Greensboro 63 0.926 Indiana 69 - UNC Greensboro 58 9
Jacksonville State 67 - East Carolina 71 0.621 Jacksonville State 86 - East Carolina 78 -12
Kent State 81 - Niagara 63 0.924 Kent State 76 - Niagara 73 15
Michigan 86 - Tarleton State 59 0.896 Michigan 72 - Tarleton State 49 4
Middle Tennessee 76 - Ohio 71 0.621 Middle Tennessee 83 - Ohio 81 3
Mississippi 83 - Oral Roberts 60 0.95 Mississippi 100 - Oral Roberts 68 -9
Monmouth 72 - Youngstown State 80 0.736 Monmouth 62 - Youngstown State 72 2
Nevada 80 - Vanderbilt 71 0.744 Nevada 71 - Vanderbilt 73 11
New Mexico 82 - Grambling State 66 0.851 New Mexico 80 - Grambling State 58 -6
North Dakota State 93 - Unranked 57 North Dakota State 67 - Unranked 60
North Florida 98 - Unranked 56 North Florida 108 - Unranked 59
North Texas 95 - Unranked 46 North Texas 73 - Unranked 66
Oakland 76 - Eastern Michigan 60 0.855 Oakland 64 - Eastern Michigan 68 20
Oklahoma 83 - Texas AM Commerce 61 0.965 Oklahoma 84 - Texas AM Commerce 56 -6
Oklahoma 98 - Unranked 50 Oklahoma 84 - Unranked 56
Oregon State 71 - Oregon 77 0.67 Oregon State 75 - Oregon 78 -3
Portland 69 - South Florida 76 0.653 Portland 68 - South Florida 74 -1
Sacred Heart 67 - Central Connecticut State 73 0.699 Sacred Heart 67 - Central Connecticut State 54 -19
Saint Johns 76 - Baylor 81 0.613 Saint Johns 98 - Baylor 99 -4
Saint Josephs 65 - Texas Tech 84 0.882 Saint Josephs 78 - Texas Tech 77 -20
Sam Houston State 97 - Unranked 54 Sam Houston State 105 - Unranked 78
San Francisco 77 - Memphis 74 0.575 San Francisco 64 - Memphis 68 7
South Carolina 83 - Mercer 61 0.914 South Carolina 84 - Mercer 72 10
Stephen F Austin 72 - Presbyterian 65 0.73 Stephen F Austin 55 - Presbyterian 58 10
Stetson 65 - Toledo 81 0.864 Stetson 78 - Toledo 103 9
Stonehill 65 - Bryant 75 0.747 Stonehill 67 - Bryant 66 -11
Texas 84 - Syracuse 76 0.713 Texas 70 - Syracuse 66 4
Texas AM CC 75 - Tennessee Martin 70 0.672 Texas AM CC 81 - Tennessee Martin 77 1
Texas State 64 - Bradley 74 0.752 Texas State 68 - Bradley 82 4
UC San Diego 69 - La Salle 76 0.69 UC San Diego 72 - La Salle 67 -12
Valparaiso 75 - Lindenwood 65 0.812 Valparaiso 77 - Lindenwood 64 -3
Virginia 62 - Tennessee 78 0.865 Virginia 42 - Tennessee 64 6
Virginia Commonwealth 70 - Seton Hall 64 0.653 Virginia Commonwealth 66 - Seton Hall 69 9
Washington State 82 - Eastern Washington 70 0.837 Washington State 96 - Eastern Washington 81 -3
Western Illinois 85 - Unranked 58 Western Illinois 73 - Unranked 46
Wright State 71 - Princeton 77 0.683 Wright State 80 - Princeton 62 -24

GAMES OF 11-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 80 - Lamar 69 0.842 Akron 79 - Lamar 72 4
Alabama AM 70 - South Carolina State 69 0.538 Alabama AM 70 - South Carolina State 82 13
Alabama Birmingham 72 - Longwood 69 0.607 Alabama Birmingham 81 - Longwood 89 11
Alabama State 71 - Omaha 74 0.603 Alabama State 85 - Omaha 67 -21
American 64 - UMKC 68 0.624 American 64 - UMKC 60 -8
Arizona 76 - Duke 78 0.537 Arizona 55 - Duke 69 12
Arkansas 83 - Arkansas Little Rock 60 0.941 Arkansas 79 - Arkansas Little Rock 67 11
Arkansas State 95 - Unranked 53 Arkansas State 103 - Unranked 60
Buffalo 73 - Morgan State 69 0.625 Buffalo 82 - Morgan State 73 -5
Butler 74 - Merrimack 60 0.871 Butler 78 - Merrimack 39 -25
Central Florida 73 - Wisconsin 75 0.547 Central Florida 70 - Wisconsin 86 14
Coastal Carolina 75 - IUPUI 66 0.741 Coastal Carolina 71 - IUPUI 57 -5
Colorado State 76 - UC Riverside 69 0.696 Colorado State 75 - UC Riverside 77 9
Creighton 78 - Nebraska 71 0.706 Creighton 63 - Nebraska 74 18
Davidson 81 - Virginia Military Institute 63 0.919 Davidson 93 - Virginia Military Institute 66 -9
East Tennessee State 75 - South Carolina Upstate 70 0.666 East Tennessee State 87 - South Carolina Upstate 76 -6
Evansville 73 - Green Bay 75 0.548 Evansville 98 - Green Bay 81 -19
Fairleigh Dickinson 89 - Unranked 62 Fairleigh Dickinson 107 - Unranked 58
Florida 87 - Southern Illinois 65 0.959 Florida 93 - Southern Illinois 68 -3
Florida AM 84 - Unranked 64 Florida AM 110 - Unranked 68
Florida Atlantic 81 - Drake 75 0.655 Florida Atlantic 63 - Drake 75 18
Florida Gulf Coast 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 72 0.663 Florida Gulf Coast 74 - Cal State Bakersfield 54 -25
Florida International 67 - Northeastern 78 0.8 Florida International 58 - Northeastern 60 -9
Fordham 68 - Drexel 70 0.546 Fordham 71 - Drexel 73 0
Georgia State 73 - North Carolina Central 69 0.648 Georgia State 93 - North Carolina Central 79 -10
Grand Canyon 79 - Norfolk State 68 0.778 Grand Canyon 91 - Norfolk State 73 -7
Harvard 65 - Colgate 71 0.684 Harvard 78 - Colgate 67 -17
Hawaii 71 - North Carolina 84 0.853 Hawaii 69 - North Carolina 87 5
Houston 82 - Hofstra 64 0.91 Houston 80 - Hofstra 44 -18
Houston Christian 64 - Rice 77 0.884 Houston Christian 58 - Rice 61 -10
Indiana State 83 - Chicago State 62 0.885 Indiana State 97 - Chicago State 61 -15
Iowa 77 - Utah State 80 0.582 Iowa 69 - Utah State 77 5
Kansas State 76 - George Washington 72 0.619 Kansas State 83 - George Washington 71 -8
Kentucky 94 - Jackson State 57 0.988 Kentucky 108 - Jackson State 59 -12
La Salle 77 - Illinois Chicago 71 0.664 La Salle 83 - Illinois Chicago 96 19
Le Moyne 66 - Tennessee Martin 72 0.66 Le Moyne 65 - Tennessee Martin 53 -18
Liberty 78 - UL Lafayette 62 0.846 Liberty 89 - UL Lafayette 69 -4
Louisiana State 71 - Pittsburgh 79 0.713 Louisiana State 63 - Pittsburgh 74 3
Louisville 77 - Winthrop 68 0.711 Louisville 76 - Winthrop 61 -6
Loyola Marymount 71 - North Dakota 70 0.519 Loyola Marymount 73 - North Dakota 77 5
Manhattan 72 - Army 71 0.507 Manhattan 80 - Army 79 0
Mcneese State 70 - Illinois State 69 0.539 Mcneese State 76 - Illinois State 68 -7
Milwaukee 73 - Portland State 80 0.714 Milwaukee 91 - Portland State 74 -24
Missouri 84 - Pacific 63 0.889 Missouri 91 - Pacific 56 -14
Murray State 76 - Utah Valley 69 0.662 Murray State 75 - Utah Valley 77 9
NC State 84 - William and Mary 66 0.875 NC State 84 - William and Mary 61 -5
Nevada 74 - Virginia Commonwealth 70 0.625 Nevada 64 - Virginia Commonwealth 61 1
Northern Arizona 74 - Incarnate Word 67 0.698 Northern Arizona 75 - Incarnate Word 74 6
Northwestern 83 - Pepperdine 66 0.874 Northwestern 68 - Pepperdine 50 -1
Northwestern State 74 - UL Monroe 66 0.761 Northwestern State 63 - UL Monroe 65 10
Notre Dame 79 - Elon 67 0.817 Notre Dame 77 - Elon 84 19
Ohio State 83 - Campbell 59 0.944 Ohio State 104 - Campbell 60 -20
Oklahoma State 78 - Miami 77 0.518 Oklahoma State 80 - Miami 74 -5
Portland 72 - Ohio 74 0.547 Portland 73 - Ohio 85 10
Presbyterian 70 - Youngstown State 78 0.729 Presbyterian 67 - Youngstown State 42 -33
Princeton 75 - Texas State 65 0.788 Princeton 80 - Texas State 83 13
Saint Josephs 70 - Texas 82 0.848 Saint Josephs 58 - Texas 67 -3
San Diego 72 - Southern Utah 76 0.641 San Diego 67 - Southern Utah 72 1
SE Missouri State 70 - UNC Asheville 76 0.627 SE Missouri State 64 - UNC Asheville 72 2
Seattle 94 - Unranked 54 Seattle 80 - Unranked 52
South Florida 73 - Middle Tennessee 72 0.515 South Florida 88 - Middle Tennessee 95 8
Southern Indiana 70 - South Dakota 77 0.704 Southern Indiana 92 - South Dakota 83 -16
Southern Methodist 73 - Mississippi State 80 0.72 Southern Methodist 79 - Mississippi State 84 -2
Stephen F Austin 75 - Monmouth 66 0.737 Stephen F Austin 72 - Monmouth 67 4
Stetson 64 - East Carolina 78 0.821 Stetson 64 - East Carolina 71 -7
Temple 72 - Florida State 75 0.619 Temple 69 - Florida State 78 6
Tennessee 79 - Baylor 76 0.571 Tennessee 77 - Baylor 62 -12
Texas Tech 85 - Syracuse 72 0.795 Texas Tech 79 - Syracuse 74 8
Toledo 75 - Jacksonville State 69 0.697 Toledo 82 - Jacksonville State 80 4
Tulane 85 - New Orleans 61 0.947 Tulane 87 - New Orleans 93 30
UC San Diego 75 - James Madison 74 0.506 UC San Diego 73 - James Madison 67 -5
UCLA 80 - Cal State Fullerton 57 0.955 UCLA 80 - Cal State Fullerton 47 -10
Unranked 59 - Albany 85 Unranked 50 - Albany 93
Utah 89 - Utah Tech 61 0.963 Utah 84 - Utah Tech 53 -3
Vanderbilt 72 - Seton Hall 71 0.515 Vanderbilt 76 - Seton Hall 60 -15
Virginia 67 - Saint Johns 75 0.713 Virginia 55 - Saint Johns 80 17
Washington 85 - Alcorn State 58 0.961 Washington 77 - Alcorn State 60 10
Weber State 63 - UC Irvine 78 0.885 Weber State 87 - UC Irvine 93 -9
Wichita State 82 - Saint Louis 71 0.807 Wichita State 88 - Saint Louis 63 -14
Wofford 65 - Saint Thomas 76 0.81 Wofford 81 - Saint Thomas 73 -19
Wright State 70 - Bradley 76 0.652 Wright State 74 - Bradley 77 -3
Wyoming 76 - Southeast Louisiana 67 0.746 Wyoming 64 - Southeast Louisiana 61 6

GAMES OF 11-23

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 78 - Omaha 68 0.816 Akron 92 - Omaha 84 2
Alabama AM 66 - Coastal Carolina 70 0.638 Alabama AM 77 - Coastal Carolina 70 -11
Alabama State 72 - Lamar 74 0.569 Alabama State 77 - Lamar 75 -4
Bellarmine 69 - Bowling Green 74 0.672 Bellarmine 80 - Bowling Green 68 -17
Brigham Young 95 - Mississippi Valley State 50 0.989 Brigham Young 87 - Mississippi Valley State 43 1
Bucknell 74 - Rider 71 0.602 Bucknell 53 - Rider 57 7
Cal Baptist 75 - Eastern Washington 74 0.534 Cal Baptist 79 - Eastern Washington 68 -10
Canisius 67 - Brown 72 0.656 Canisius 76 - Brown 83 2
Charleston Southern 60 - Furman 82 0.955 Charleston Southern 46 - Furman 67 -1
Charlotte 79 - LIU Brooklyn 63 0.895 Charlotte 76 - LIU Brooklyn 79 19
Cleveland State 69 - Kent State 76 0.702 Cleveland State 52 - Kent State 68 9
Columbia 78 - Stony Brook 72 0.637 Columbia 82 - Stony Brook 63 -13
Delaware 69 - Vermont 68 0.515 Delaware 71 - Vermont 75 5
DePaul 79 - Northern Illinois 63 0.831 DePaul 98 - Northern Illinois 52 -30
East Carolina 74 - Illinois Chicago 73 0.542 East Carolina 72 - Illinois Chicago 55 -16
Fairfield 63 - Yale 78 0.831 Fairfield 66 - Yale 91 10
Florida Gulf Coast 67 - Northeastern 73 0.691 Florida Gulf Coast 55 - Northeastern 59 -2
Florida International 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 77 0.777 Florida International 76 - Cal State Bakersfield 73 -13
George Mason 95 - Unranked 52 George Mason 100 - Unranked 55
George Washington 78 - UL Lafayette 71 0.695 George Washington 83 - UL Lafayette 74 -2
Georgetown 76 - Saint Francis Penn 66 0.8 Georgetown 82 - Saint Francis Penn 65 -7
Georgia 71 - Marquette 80 0.755 Georgia 69 - Marquette 80 2
Georgia Southern 78 - West Georgia 64 0.922 Georgia Southern 64 - West Georgia 54 4
Georgia Tech 68 - Cincinnati 80 0.816 Georgia Tech 58 - Cincinnati 81 11
Illinois 95 - Maryland Eastern Shore 53 0.997 Illinois 87 - Maryland Eastern Shore 40 -5
Illinois State 69 - Alabama Birmingham 74 0.651 Illinois State 84 - Alabama Birmingham 83 -6
Jacksonville State 70 - James Madison 72 0.546 Jacksonville State 65 - James Madison 71 4
Long Beach State 73 - Fresno State 71 0.57 Long Beach State 69 - Fresno State 72 5
Loyola Ill 81 - Tulsa 70 0.829 Loyola Ill 89 - Tulsa 53 -25
Marist 76 - New Hampshire 63 0.818 Marist 54 - New Hampshire 49 8
Massachusetts 73 - Temple 76 0.601 Massachusetts 80 - Temple 87 4
Milwaukee 73 - Wofford 70 0.594 Milwaukee 76 - Wofford 74 1
Mt St Marys 76 - Delaware State 63 0.845 Mt St Marys 76 - Delaware State 66 3
Nevada Las Vegas 78 - New Mexico State 69 0.764 Nevada Las Vegas 72 - New Mexico State 65 2
North Alabama 79 - UL Monroe 64 0.891 North Alabama 74 - UL Monroe 62 3
Northern Colorado 86 - Prairie View 61 0.953 Northern Colorado 114 - Prairie View 98 9
Northern Kentucky 88 - Unranked 54 Northern Kentucky 85 - Unranked 59
Presbyterian 74 - Monmouth 73 0.546 Presbyterian 71 - Monmouth 61 -9
Purdue 88 - Marshall 61 0.955 Purdue 80 - Marshall 45 -8
Queens 75 - South Carolina Upstate 73 0.554 Queens 98 - South Carolina Upstate 74 -22
Saint Marys 84 - Cal Poly 64 0.92 Saint Marys 80 - Cal Poly 66 6
Saint Thomas 77 - Portland State 76 0.523 Saint Thomas 91 - Portland State 65 -25
Santa Clara 71 - Stanford 82 0.8 Santa Clara 69 - Stanford 71 -9
SIU Edwardsville 91 - Unranked 53 SIU Edwardsville 83 - Unranked 49
South Carolina State 74 - IUPUI 70 0.611 South Carolina State 72 - IUPUI 62 -6
Southern Utah 79 - Idaho 70 0.778 Southern Utah 82 - Idaho 67 -6
Stephen F Austin 72 - Youngstown State 71 0.505 Stephen F Austin 64 - Youngstown State 57 -6
Stetson 63 - La Salle 80 0.887 Stetson 77 - La Salle 92 -2
Texas AM CC 78 - Le Moyne 68 0.8 Texas AM CC 82 - Le Moyne 61 -11
Toledo 77 - UC San Diego 72 0.642 Toledo 45 - UC San Diego 80 40
UMass Lowell 77 - Quinnipiac 72 0.627 UMass Lowell 80 - Quinnipiac 70 -5
UMBC 71 - Boston 70 0.533 UMBC 71 - Boston 75 5
UMKC 69 - Albany 67 0.59 UMKC 65 - Albany 67 4
Unranked 58 - American 82 Unranked 56 - American 73
Wagner 82 - Unranked 54 Wagner 81 - Unranked 46
Wake Forest 82 - Detroit 61 0.925 Wake Forest 67 - Detroit 57 11

GAMES OF 11-24

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 66 - Mercyhurst 64 0.573 Air Force 82 - Mercyhurst 48 -32
Akron 78 - Alabama State 65 0.857 Akron 97 - Alabama State 78 -6
Albany 68 - American 67 0.545 Albany 77 - American 81 5
Appalachian State 73 - William and Mary 70 0.573 Appalachian State 79 - William and Mary 76 0
Boise State 87 - Hampton 54 0.961 Boise State 83 - Hampton 69 19
Boston College 78 - Old Dominion 61 0.884 Boston College 82 - Old Dominion 52 -13
Bradley 74 - Middle Tennessee 69 0.617 Bradley 80 - Middle Tennessee 69 -6
Cal State Bakersfield 72 - Northeastern 73 0.527 Cal State Bakersfield 68 - Northeastern 60 -9
California 81 - Sacramento State 59 0.943 California 83 - Sacramento State 77 16
Central Arkansas 69 - UNC Asheville 74 0.624 Central Arkansas 92 - UNC Asheville 83 -14
Central Connecticut State 75 - Binghamton 64 0.823 Central Connecticut State 64 - Binghamton 56 3
Central Florida 76 - Louisiana State 72 0.631 Central Florida 102 - Louisiana State 109 11
Delaware 69 - Yale 75 0.673 Delaware 100 - Yale 94 -12
Duquesne 69 - South Dakota State 75 0.663 Duquesne 60 - South Dakota State 71 5
East Tennessee State 72 - Queens 69 0.592 East Tennessee State 82 - Queens 67 -12
Evansville 70 - Campbell 74 0.62 Evansville 66 - Campbell 53 -17
Fairfield 62 - Vermont 70 0.699 Fairfield 67 - Vermont 66 -9
Florida Gulf Coast 72 - Florida International 68 0.652 Florida Gulf Coast 60 - Florida International 59 3
Florida State 78 - Massachusetts 72 0.753 Florida State 92 - Massachusetts 59 -27
High Point 74 - Missouri State 72 0.551 High Point 61 - Missouri State 71 12
Howard 71 - Boston 67 0.618 Howard 62 - Boston 69 11
Kansas State 66 - Liberty 71 0.63 Kansas State 65 - Liberty 67 -3
Kennesaw St 71 - Rutgers 81 0.771 Kennesaw St 79 - Rutgers 77 -12
Lafayette 84 - Unranked 57 Lafayette 91 - Unranked 45
Lipscomb 79 - Jackson State 67 0.827 Lipscomb 77 - Jackson State 53 -12
Maine 69 - Holy Cross 67 0.567 Maine 80 - Holy Cross 55 -23
Mcneese State 68 - Longwood 69 0.516 Mcneese State 84 - Longwood 69 -16
Milwaukee 69 - Saint Thomas 77 0.746 Milwaukee 69 - Saint Thomas 65 -12
Missouri 90 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 0.965 Missouri 112 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 -15
Montana 76 - Denver 70 0.658 Montana 83 - Denver 73 -4
Montana State 77 - Southern Miss 73 0.616 Montana State 79 - Southern Miss 59 -16
Morgan State 62 - Towson 76 0.867 Morgan State 60 - Towson 64 -10
Nevada 79 - Oklahoma State 71 0.77 Nevada 90 - Oklahoma State 78 -4
New Mexico 87 - Texas Southern 63 0.949 New Mexico 99 - Texas Southern 68 -7
Northwestern State 69 - North Alabama 76 0.714 Northwestern State 71 - North Alabama 58 -20
Omaha 76 - Lamar 73 0.615 Omaha 65 - Lamar 59 -3
Princeton 78 - Portland 67 0.754 Princeton 94 - Portland 67 -16
Rhode Island 75 - College of Charleston 77 0.552 Rhode Island 91 - College of Charleston 53 -40
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Bryant 66 0.817 Saint Bonaventure 85 - Bryant 70 -2
Saint Johns 80 - Georgia 74 0.692 Saint Johns 63 - Georgia 66 9
San Diego 76 - Idaho 71 0.66 San Diego 68 - Idaho 61 -2
Seton Hall 71 - Florida Atlantic 77 0.653 Seton Hall 63 - Florida Atlantic 61 -8
Southern California 79 - Grambling State 64 0.858 Southern California 80 - Grambling State 69 4
Texas State 70 - Ohio 71 0.521 Texas State 74 - Ohio 65 -10
UC Riverside 81 - Alcorn State 60 0.935 UC Riverside 69 - Alcorn State 52 4
Unranked 56 - UMKC 86 Unranked 55 - UMKC 88
Utah Tech 68 - Cal State Northridge 79 0.824 Utah Tech 79 - Cal State Northridge 89 -1
Valparaiso 71 - Eastern Illinois 72 0.523 Valparaiso 81 - Eastern Illinois 53 -29
Vanderbilt 76 - Drake 75 0.512 Vanderbilt 70 - Drake 81 12
Villanova 65 - Maryland 77 0.804 Villanova 75 - Maryland 76 -11
Virginia Commonwealth 77 - Miami 72 0.615 Virginia Commonwealth 77 - Miami 70 -2
Wisconsin 74 - Pittsburgh 76 0.553 Wisconsin 81 - Pittsburgh 75 -8
Wofford 69 - Portland State 79 0.781 Wofford 74 - Portland State 79 -5
Wright State 73 - South Florida 74 0.541 Wright State 72 - South Florida 73 0


Number of DI Games: 323
Number Correct: 237 = 73.3%
Expected Number Correct: 242.913 = 75.2%
Average Error: 10
Average Signed Error: -1.76

GAMES OF 11-25

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 69 - IUPUI 63 0.66 Alabama AM 83 - IUPUI 88 11
Arkansas 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 55 0.966 Arkansas 109 - Maryland Eastern Shore 35 -44
Boston College 69 - Missouri State 72 0.582 Boston College 76 - Missouri State 74 -5
Buffalo 76 - North Carolina AT 67 0.727 Buffalo 82 - North Carolina AT 81 8
Chattanooga 77 - Tennessee State 64 0.819 Chattanooga 85 - Tennessee State 78 6
Chicago State 61 - Radford 76 0.858 Chicago State 48 - Radford 63 0
Columbia 69 - New Hampshire 67 0.565 Columbia 83 - New Hampshire 57 -24
Connecticut 75 - Memphis 72 0.586 Connecticut 97 - Memphis 99 5
Denver 70 - Cal State Northridge 72 0.579 Denver 60 - Cal State Northridge 89 27
Duquesne 76 - Hampton 64 0.776 Duquesne 59 - Hampton 64 17
Eastern Kentucky 74 - Ball State 70 0.615 Eastern Kentucky 61 - Ball State 63 6
Fordham 65 - Penn State 79 0.854 Fordham 66 - Penn State 85 5
George Washington 74 - Illinois State 72 0.56 George Washington 72 - Illinois State 64 -6
Houston Christian 69 - Eastern Michigan 72 0.575 Houston Christian 73 - Eastern Michigan 74 -2
Idaho State 85 - Unranked 56 Idaho State 97 - Unranked 46
Illinois 86 - Arkansas Little Rock 61 0.948 Illinois 92 - Arkansas Little Rock 34 -33
Iona 76 - Cornell 68 0.691 Iona 68 - Cornell 84 24
Iowa State 70 - Auburn 77 0.686 Iowa State 81 - Auburn 83 -5
IPFW 67 - Drexel 70 0.594 IPFW 87 - Drexel 81 -9
Kansas State 76 - Longwood 65 0.785 Kansas State 80 - Longwood 64 -5
Liberty 75 - Mcneese State 59 0.898 Liberty 62 - Mcneese State 58 12
Louisiana Tech 71 - Southern Illinois 66 0.664 Louisiana Tech 85 - Southern Illinois 79 -1
Mercer 65 - Jacksonville 66 0.514 Mercer 90 - Jacksonville 89 -2
Michigan State 74 - Colorado 73 0.507 Michigan State 72 - Colorado 56 -15
Minnesota 77 - Central Michigan 63 0.82 Minnesota 68 - Central Michigan 65 11
Montana 75 - Utah Tech 66 0.736 Montana 69 - Utah Tech 66 6
Navy 86 - Unranked 54 Navy 94 - Unranked 43
Nicholls State 86 - Unranked 55 Nicholls State 79 - Unranked 35
North Carolina 75 - Dayton 71 0.604 North Carolina 92 - Dayton 90 2
North Carolina Central 84 - Unranked 55 North Carolina Central 91 - Unranked 36
North Texas 73 - Oregon State 63 0.782 North Texas 58 - Oregon State 55 7
Ohio State 87 - Green Bay 57 0.958 Ohio State 102 - Green Bay 69 -3
Old Dominion 70 - High Point 68 0.565 Old Dominion 67 - High Point 73 8
Oral Roberts 92 - Unranked 55 Oral Roberts 68 - Unranked 69
Richmond 90 - Unranked 53 Richmond 67 - Unranked 57
Saint Louis 78 - Quinnipiac 67 0.777 Saint Louis 81 - Quinnipiac 67 -3
San Francisco 72 - Clemson 73 0.536 San Francisco 55 - Clemson 70 14
Siena 70 - Miami OH 67 0.563 Siena 58 - Miami OH 70 15
South Alabama 77 - Incarnate Word 58 0.909 South Alabama 84 - Incarnate Word 63 -2
South Dakota 88 - Unranked 57 South Dakota 112 - Unranked 50
South Dakota State 67 - Boise State 77 0.746 South Dakota State 82 - Boise State 83 -9
Southern 84 - Unranked 56 Southern 121 - Unranked 58
Southern Indiana 66 - Indiana State 76 0.727 Southern Indiana 87 - Indiana State 77 -20
Southern Miss 68 - Abilene Christian 73 0.641 Southern Miss 74 - Abilene Christian 82 3
Stonehill 67 - East Texas AM 66 0.546 Stonehill 67 - East Texas AM 65 -1
Texas El Paso 73 - San Jose State 67 0.656 Texas El Paso 65 - San Jose State 71 12
Troy 76 - Texas San Antonio 68 0.722 Troy 86 - Texas San Antonio 72 -6
UC Davis 70 - Norfolk State 68 0.582 UC Davis 55 - Norfolk State 76 23
UL Lafayette 69 - Alabama Birmingham 77 0.735 UL Lafayette 86 - Alabama Birmingham 98 4
UMass Lowell 70 - Merrimack 62 0.704 UMass Lowell 81 - Merrimack 74 1
UMBC 72 - Howard 70 0.561 UMBC 95 - Howard 77 -16
UNC Greensboro 74 - Long Beach State 66 0.724 UNC Greensboro 71 - Long Beach State 48 -15
UT Rio Grande Valley 74 - Le Moyne 68 0.636 UT Rio Grande Valley 97 - Le Moyne 77 -14
Virginia Tech 70 - Michigan 77 0.669 Virginia Tech 63 - Michigan 75 5
Weber State 88 - Unranked 54 Weber State 93 - Unranked 45
Winthrop 78 - LIU Brooklyn 65 0.858 Winthrop 87 - LIU Brooklyn 65 -9
Xavier 80 - South Carolina 70 0.728 Xavier 75 - South Carolina 66 1

GAMES OF 11-26

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 74 - Houston 76 0.566 Alabama 85 - Houston 80 -7
Army 86 - Unranked 56 Army 91 - Unranked 52
Bellarmine 85 - Unranked 55 Bellarmine 101 - Unranked 60
Belmont 75 - Loyola Marymount 69 0.665 Belmont 63 - Loyola Marymount 77 20
Boston College 67 - Boise State 78 0.767 Boston College 63 - Boise State 61 -13
Cal Baptist 69 - Southern Methodist 76 0.698 Cal Baptist 77 - Southern Methodist 79 -5
Cal Poly 65 - Grambling State 67 0.542 Cal Poly 82 - Grambling State 79 -5
Clemson 73 - Penn State 75 0.552 Clemson 75 - Penn State 67 -10
Cleveland State 75 - NJ Tech 60 0.863 Cleveland State 56 - NJ Tech 53 12
Colorado 70 - Connecticut 76 0.679 Colorado 73 - Connecticut 72 -7
Creighton 71 - San Diego State 72 0.543 Creighton 53 - San Diego State 71 17
Dayton 71 - Iowa State 69 0.53 Dayton 84 - Iowa State 89 7
Delaware State 79 - Unranked 61 Delaware State 111 - Unranked 43
Drexel 76 - Chicago State 59 0.883 Drexel 83 - Chicago State 71 5
Fairleigh Dickinson 67 - Saint Peters 71 0.627 Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Saint Peters 78 -2
Florida State 81 - Western Carolina 65 0.843 Florida State 91 - Western Carolina 57 -18
Gardner Webb 72 - Southeast Louisiana 65 0.724 Gardner Webb 73 - Southeast Louisiana 69 3
Georgetown 74 - Wagner 63 0.771 Georgetown 66 - Wagner 41 -14
Georgia State 71 - Austin Peay 68 0.585 Georgia State 50 - Austin Peay 62 15
Hawaii 89 - Unranked 52 Hawaii 67 - Unranked 63
High Point 72 - Hampton 67 0.656 High Point 76 - Hampton 73 2
Iowa 88 - South Carolina Upstate 62 0.945 Iowa 110 - South Carolina Upstate 77 -7
IPFW 68 - Radford 69 0.527 IPFW 56 - Radford 69 12
Jacksonville 64 - Siena 65 0.51 Jacksonville 75 - Siena 64 -12
Kansas 75 - Duke 73 0.551 Kansas 75 - Duke 72 -1
Kentucky 82 - Western Kentucky 66 0.881 Kentucky 87 - Western Kentucky 68 -3
Long Beach State 69 - Texas El Paso 74 0.634 Long Beach State 44 - Texas El Paso 70 21
Louisiana Tech 73 - Richmond 68 0.626 Louisiana Tech 65 - Richmond 62 2
Loyola MD 71 - Virginia Military Institute 68 0.586 Loyola MD 70 - Virginia Military Institute 67 0
Mercer 70 - Miami OH 68 0.537 Mercer 72 - Miami OH 75 5
Michigan State 72 - Memphis 76 0.604 Michigan State 63 - Memphis 71 4
Missouri State 71 - South Dakota State 70 0.546 Missouri State 55 - South Dakota State 75 21
Montana State 71 - Abilene Christian 68 0.588 Montana State 85 - Abilene Christian 59 -23
Murray State 73 - Texas Arlington 68 0.651 Murray State 79 - Texas Arlington 66 -8
North Carolina 75 - Auburn 78 0.565 North Carolina 72 - Auburn 85 10
North Dakota 70 - Bethune Cookman 67 0.6 North Dakota 67 - Bethune Cookman 79 15
Northern Arizona 71 - Eastern Michigan 67 0.608 Northern Arizona 68 - Eastern Michigan 72 8
Northern Colorado 91 - Unranked 55 Northern Colorado 92 - Unranked 50
Notre Dame 70 - Rutgers 75 0.637 Notre Dame 84 - Rutgers 85 -4
Old Dominion 68 - Duquesne 71 0.588 Old Dominion 54 - Duquesne 67 10
Pepperdine 73 - Cal State Fullerton 72 0.54 Pepperdine 63 - Cal State Fullerton 72 10
Saint Francis Penn 70 - Lehigh 69 0.512 Saint Francis Penn 88 - Lehigh 78 -9
Saint Josephs 80 - Coppin State 63 0.863 Saint Josephs 83 - Coppin State 54 -12
Samford 74 - North Dakota State 70 0.596 Samford 103 - North Dakota State 98 -1
San Francisco 76 - Fordham 65 0.794 San Francisco 85 - Fordham 64 -10
Seattle 67 - Furman 74 0.674 Seattle 56 - Furman 61 -2
South Alabama 76 - Western Illinois 62 0.842 South Alabama 63 - Western Illinois 64 15
Southern Illinois 71 - Eastern Kentucky 69 0.556 Southern Illinois 72 - Eastern Kentucky 77 7
Stanford 75 - Grand Canyon 71 0.615 Stanford 71 - Grand Canyon 78 11
Tennessee State 68 - Bryant 75 0.689 Tennessee State 85 - Bryant 97 5
Texas AM 72 - Oregon 74 0.547 Texas AM 70 - Oregon 80 8
Texas AM CC 87 - Unranked 55 Texas AM CC 94 - Unranked 45
The Citadel 85 - Unranked 59 The Citadel 100 - Unranked 85
Tulane 75 - Wyoming 72 0.577 Tulane 63 - Wyoming 64 4
Tulsa 72 - Detroit 71 0.518 Tulsa 63 - Detroit 44 -18
UC Santa Barbara 74 - Eastern Washington 70 0.633 UC Santa Barbara 67 - Eastern Washington 51 -12
UCLA 81 - Southern Utah 64 0.905 UCLA 88 - Southern Utah 43 -28
UNC Greensboro 73 - San Jose State 64 0.735 UNC Greensboro 64 - San Jose State 69 14
Unranked 57 - Ball State 87 Unranked 57 - Ball State 94
Utah 87 - Mississippi Valley State 54 0.966 Utah 94 - Mississippi Valley State 48 -13
Utah Tech 73 - Denver 70 0.583 Utah Tech 68 - Denver 54 -11
Virginia 77 - Manhattan 56 0.929 Virginia 74 - Manhattan 65 12
Washington State 76 - Fresno State 66 0.77 Washington State 84 - Fresno State 73 -1
West Georgia 61 - Utah Valley 77 0.851 West Georgia 74 - Utah Valley 77 -13

GAMES OF 11-27

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Sacramento State 64 0.647 Air Force 61 - Sacramento State 63 7
Alabama 81 - Rutgers 71 0.731 Alabama 95 - Rutgers 90 5
Arizona 80 - Davidson 69 0.766 Arizona 104 - Davidson 71 -22
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Maryland Eastern Shore 64 0.707 Arkansas Little Rock 78 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59 -12
Auburn 76 - Memphis 75 0.533 Auburn 90 - Memphis 76 -13
Austin Peay 68 - Texas Arlington 71 0.58 Austin Peay 58 - Texas Arlington 68 7
Ball State 66 - Richmond 73 0.676 Ball State 60 - Richmond 73 6
Baylor 91 - New Orleans 57 0.965 Baylor 91 - New Orleans 60 3
Belmont 76 - Tulane 74 0.557 Belmont 89 - Tulane 66 -21
Bethune Cookman 62 - Gardner Webb 73 0.754 Bethune Cookman 64 - Gardner Webb 79 4
Brown 71 - Stony Brook 65 0.659 Brown 77 - Stony Brook 54 -17
California 75 - Mercyhurst 62 0.793 California 81 - Mercyhurst 55 -13
Central Florida 80 - Milwaukee 65 0.853 Central Florida 84 - Milwaukee 76 7
Charlotte 70 - East Tennessee State 65 0.671 Charlotte 55 - East Tennessee State 75 25
Chattanooga 75 - Bryant 69 0.661 Chattanooga 84 - Bryant 76 -2
Cincinnati 84 - Alabama State 56 0.964 Cincinnati 77 - Alabama State 59 10
College of Charleston 72 - Northern Kentucky 65 0.701 College of Charleston 79 - Northern Kentucky 64 -8
Creighton 74 - Texas AM 72 0.574 Creighton 73 - Texas AM 77 6
Dayton 67 - Connecticut 75 0.715 Dayton 85 - Connecticut 67 -26
Fresno State 69 - Cal Baptist 68 0.528 Fresno State 81 - Cal Baptist 86 6
Georgia State 72 - Tulsa 71 0.535 Georgia State 74 - Tulsa 71 -2
Georgia Tech 80 - Charleston Southern 61 0.902 Georgia Tech 91 - Charleston Southern 67 -5
Gonzaga 84 - West Virginia 72 0.764 Gonzaga 78 - West Virginia 86 20
Harvard 70 - Massachusetts 72 0.531 Harvard 54 - Massachusetts 62 6
Houston 80 - Notre Dame 62 0.886 Houston 65 - Notre Dame 54 7
Houston Christian 67 - Northern Arizona 73 0.692 Houston Christian 71 - Northern Arizona 74 -3
Indiana 78 - Louisville 68 0.746 Indiana 61 - Louisville 89 38
Iowa State 71 - Colorado 73 0.562 Iowa State 99 - Colorado 71 -30
Louisiana Tech 76 - Eastern Kentucky 69 0.723 Louisiana Tech 78 - Eastern Kentucky 69 -2
Loyola Marymount 71 - Wyoming 72 0.522 Loyola Marymount 73 - Wyoming 70 -4
Marquette 85 - Stonehill 56 0.961 Marquette 94 - Stonehill 59 -6
Marshall 82 - South Carolina State 62 0.917 Marshall 82 - South Carolina State 53 -9
Maryland 83 - Bucknell 59 0.935 Maryland 91 - Bucknell 67 0
Merrimack 67 - Texas San Antonio 68 0.508 Merrimack 74 - Texas San Antonio 76 1
Missouri 85 - Lindenwood 59 0.941 Missouri 81 - Lindenwood 61 6
Montana 75 - Cal State Northridge 65 0.751 Montana 83 - Cal State Northridge 75 2
Morehead State 72 - NJ Tech 59 0.834 Morehead State 69 - NJ Tech 78 22
Nebraska 81 - South Dakota 66 0.814 Nebraska 96 - South Dakota 79 -2
North Alabama 87 - Unranked 57 North Alabama 100 - Unranked 69
North Carolina 76 - Michigan State 74 0.566 North Carolina 91 - Michigan State 94 5
North Dakota 70 - Southeast Louisiana 69 0.535 North Dakota 60 - Southeast Louisiana 76 17
North Dakota State 72 - West Georgia 63 0.735 North Dakota State 73 - West Georgia 61 -3
Pacific 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 61 0.893 Pacific 83 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 71 5
Princeton 92 - Unranked 53 Princeton 99 - Unranked 63
Providence 74 - Oklahoma 73 0.504 Providence 77 - Oklahoma 79 3
Rhode Island 75 - Detroit 67 0.689 Rhode Island 81 - Detroit 75 2
Robert Morris 71 - Canisius 66 0.635 Robert Morris 72 - Canisius 64 -3
Saint Louis 77 - UMass Lowell 68 0.705 Saint Louis 93 - UMass Lowell 90 6
Sam Houston State 71 - Appalachian State 65 0.656 Sam Houston State 63 - Appalachian State 66 9
Samford 71 - Utah Valley 75 0.602 Samford 84 - Utah Valley 76 -12
San Diego 88 - Unranked 57 San Diego 69 - Unranked 64
San Diego State 73 - Oregon 70 0.571 San Diego State 68 - Oregon 78 13
San Jose State 71 - Long Beach State 73 0.541 San Jose State 82 - Long Beach State 66 -18
South Carolina 71 - Virginia Tech 75 0.596 South Carolina 70 - Virginia Tech 60 -14
Syracuse 81 - Cornell 69 0.787 Syracuse 82 - Cornell 72 2
Tennessee 87 - Tennessee Martin 54 0.965 Tennessee 78 - Tennessee Martin 35 -10
Tennessee Tech 69 - Presbyterian 66 0.582 Tennessee Tech 90 - Presbyterian 75 -12
Texas El Paso 66 - UNC Greensboro 69 0.589 Texas El Paso 64 - UNC Greensboro 58 -9
Texas Southern 85 - Unranked 57 Texas Southern 80 - Unranked 72
UMBC 73 - Morgan State 66 0.676 UMBC 92 - Morgan State 69 -16
UNC Wilmington 70 - Colgate 71 0.515 UNC Wilmington 59 - Colgate 72 12
Unranked 52 - Southern Illinois 87 Unranked 54 - Southern Illinois 81
Valparaiso 72 - Northern Illinois 66 0.662 Valparaiso 87 - Northern Illinois 82 1
Vermont 90 - Unranked 50 Vermont 78 - Unranked 55
Villanova 79 - Rider 61 0.889 Villanova 72 - Rider 48 -6
Washington State 76 - Southern Methodist 72 0.616 Washington State 60 - Southern Methodist 77 21
Western Illinois 70 - Incarnate Word 64 0.673 Western Illinois 75 - Incarnate Word 86 17
Winthrop 90 - Unranked 55 Winthrop 99 - Unranked 56
Xavier 75 - Michigan 76 0.535 Xavier 53 - Michigan 78 24
Youngstown State 75 - Western Michigan 64 0.786 Youngstown State 62 - Western Michigan 73 22

GAMES OF 11-28

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 79 - Oklahoma 73 0.636 Arizona 77 - Oklahoma 82 11
Brigham Young 75 - Mississippi 70 0.651 Brigham Young 85 - Mississippi 96 16
Davidson 69 - Providence 74 0.656 Davidson 69 - Providence 58 -16
Gonzaga 83 - Indiana 71 0.768 Gonzaga 89 - Indiana 73 -4
Illinois 77 - Arkansas 76 0.504 Illinois 90 - Arkansas 77 -12
Kennesaw St 67 - UC Irvine 75 0.718 Kennesaw St 59 - UC Irvine 76 9
Kent State 70 - Towson 66 0.616 Kent State 65 - Towson 54 -7
Mississippi State 75 - Nevada Las Vegas 69 0.692 Mississippi State 80 - Nevada Las Vegas 58 -16
NC State 70 - Purdue 78 0.714 NC State 61 - Purdue 71 2
New Mexico 74 - Arizona State 79 0.634 New Mexico 82 - Arizona State 85 -2
North Dakota State 66 - Utah Valley 74 0.682 North Dakota State 83 - Utah Valley 63 -28
North Texas 73 - Northern Iowa 63 0.773 North Texas 68 - Northern Iowa 48 -10
Northwestern 72 - Butler 69 0.561 Northwestern 69 - Butler 71 5
Rhode Island 74 - Texas Arlington 68 0.653 Rhode Island 83 - Texas Arlington 78 1
Saint Bonaventure 67 - Utah State 77 0.733 Saint Bonaventure 67 - Utah State 72 -5
Saint Marys 72 - Southern California 69 0.594 Saint Marys 71 - Southern California 36 -32
Texas Christian 77 - Santa Clara 72 0.637 Texas Christian 52 - Santa Clara 69 22
Wake Forest 71 - Florida 78 0.691 Wake Forest 58 - Florida 75 10
Washington 74 - Colorado State 75 0.526 Washington 73 - Colorado State 67 -7
West Virginia 79 - Louisville 69 0.727 West Virginia 70 - Louisville 79 19
Wichita State 74 - Minnesota 69 0.657 Wichita State 68 - Minnesota 66 3

GAMES OF 11-29

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 79 - West Virginia 75 0.594 Arizona 76 - West Virginia 83 11
Arizona State 68 - Saint Marys 74 0.649 Arizona State 68 - Saint Marys 64 -10
Belmont 75 - Gardner Webb 66 0.76 Belmont 83 - Gardner Webb 74 0
Binghamton 65 - Niagara 70 0.631 Binghamton 62 - Niagara 65 -2
Boston College 77 - Dartmouth 63 0.819 Boston College 83 - Dartmouth 88 19
Bowling Green 68 - Weber State 74 0.645 Bowling Green 70 - Weber State 73 -3
Bradley 93 - Unranked 50 Bradley 107 - Unranked 41
Brigham Young 75 - NC State 73 0.576 Brigham Young 72 - NC State 61 -9
Clemson 82 - Florida AM 55 0.948 Clemson 86 - Florida AM 58 -1
Cleveland State 67 - Morehead State 65 0.534 Cleveland State 69 - Morehead State 71 4
Colgate 70 - Appalachian State 67 0.601 Colgate 50 - Appalachian State 72 25
Colorado State 71 - Texas Christian 76 0.622 Colorado State 76 - Texas Christian 72 -9
Davidson 66 - Gonzaga 85 0.886 Davidson 65 - Gonzaga 90 6
DePaul 78 - Valparaiso 68 0.766 DePaul 89 - Valparaiso 70 -9
Duke 82 - Seattle 62 0.881 Duke 70 - Seattle 48 -2
East Carolina 76 - North Carolina AT 64 0.804 East Carolina 93 - North Carolina AT 69 -12
Eastern Illinois 65 - Northern Illinois 68 0.561 Eastern Illinois 72 - Northern Illinois 59 -16
Florida 76 - Wichita State 71 0.639 Florida 88 - Wichita State 51 -32
George Washington 78 - Virginia Military Institute 68 0.753 George Washington 77 - Virginia Military Institute 64 -3
Indiana State 73 - Arkansas State 69 0.614 Indiana State 81 - Arkansas State 86 9
James Madison 73 - George Mason 72 0.509 James Madison 61 - George Mason 66 6
Kentucky 86 - Georgia State 62 0.935 Kentucky 105 - Georgia State 76 -5
Lafayette 71 - LIU Brooklyn 66 0.657 Lafayette 75 - LIU Brooklyn 56 -14
Liberty 92 - Unranked 47 Liberty 93 - Unranked 36
Louisiana State 81 - Northwestern State 63 0.904 Louisiana State 77 - Northwestern State 53 -6
Maine 64 - Elon 69 0.617 Maine 69 - Elon 56 -18
Manhattan 70 - Le Moyne 67 0.573 Manhattan 77 - Le Moyne 81 7
Mississippi 67 - Purdue 78 0.779 Mississippi 78 - Purdue 80 -9
Mississippi State 73 - Butler 67 0.654 Mississippi State 77 - Butler 87 16
Nevada Las Vegas 71 - Northwestern 74 0.587 Nevada Las Vegas 61 - Northwestern 66 2
New Mexico 73 - Southern California 80 0.7 New Mexico 83 - Southern California 73 -17
New Mexico State 74 - Pepperdine 70 0.605 New Mexico State 70 - Pepperdine 82 16
North Texas 68 - Utah State 71 0.59 North Texas 57 - Utah State 61 1
Northern Iowa 68 - Saint Bonaventure 72 0.593 Northern Iowa 56 - Saint Bonaventure 68 8
Ohio State 76 - Pittsburgh 71 0.641 Ohio State 90 - Pittsburgh 91 6
Oklahoma 77 - Louisville 69 0.697 Oklahoma 69 - Louisville 64 3
Pennsylvania 69 - Navy 68 0.548 Pennsylvania 78 - Navy 86 9
Providence 72 - Indiana 74 0.553 Providence 73 - Indiana 89 14
Rice 70 - Hofstra 75 0.634 Rice 63 - Hofstra 68 0
Samford 77 - West Georgia 65 0.811 Samford 86 - West Georgia 65 -9
SIU Edwardsville 69 - North Florida 72 0.572 SIU Edwardsville 73 - North Florida 78 2
South Alabama 75 - Alcorn State 61 0.85 South Alabama 74 - Alcorn State 65 5
Tarleton State 65 - Iona 73 0.686 Tarleton State 51 - Iona 62 3
Texas 90 - Delaware State 52 0.994 Texas 90 - Delaware State 68 16
Texas Tech 82 - Northern Colorado 65 0.872 Texas Tech 89 - Northern Colorado 64 -8
Towson 71 - Kennesaw St 68 0.588 Towson 63 - Kennesaw St 67 7
Troy 69 - Merrimack 61 0.746 Troy 68 - Merrimack 72 12
UC Irvine 70 - Kent State 69 0.53 UC Irvine 51 - Kent State 39 -11
UC Santa Barbara 83 - Mississippi Valley State 54 0.957 UC Santa Barbara 81 - Mississippi Valley State 48 -4
UL Monroe 64 - Stephen F Austin 73 0.752 UL Monroe 60 - Stephen F Austin 68 -1
UNC Wilmington 68 - Sam Houston State 71 0.575 UNC Wilmington 69 - Sam Houston State 60 -12
Vanderbilt 83 - Tennessee Tech 62 0.912 Vanderbilt 87 - Tennessee Tech 56 -10
Virginia 79 - Holy Cross 54 0.944 Virginia 67 - Holy Cross 41 -1
Virginia Commonwealth 95 - Unranked 47 Virginia Commonwealth 103 - Unranked 58
Wake Forest 74 - Minnesota 71 0.579 Wake Forest 57 - Minnesota 51 -3
Washington 74 - Santa Clara 75 0.508 Washington 76 - Santa Clara 69 -8

GAMES OF 11-30

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 62 - Lipscomb 73 0.774 Alabama AM 44 - Lipscomb 82 27
Arkansas State 71 - Rice 73 0.548 Arkansas State 67 - Rice 75 6
Binghamton 70 - LIU Brooklyn 69 0.53 Binghamton 75 - LIU Brooklyn 70 -4
Bucknell 66 - Siena 71 0.65 Bucknell 58 - Siena 71 8
Coastal Carolina 73 - South Carolina Upstate 68 0.637 Coastal Carolina 73 - South Carolina Upstate 51 -17
Colgate 69 - Sam Houston State 71 0.561 Colgate 78 - Sam Houston State 82 2
Connecticut 86 - Maryland Eastern Shore 52 0.986 Connecticut 99 - Maryland Eastern Shore 45 -20
Creighton 79 - Notre Dame 69 0.756 Creighton 80 - Notre Dame 76 6
Drake 79 - Georgia Southern 61 0.89 Drake 61 - Georgia Southern 47 4
East Tennessee State 72 - Austin Peay 65 0.702 East Tennessee State 79 - Austin Peay 57 -15
East Texas AM 67 - IPFW 72 0.64 East Texas AM 57 - IPFW 77 15
Eastern Michigan 68 - Detroit 72 0.598 Eastern Michigan 89 - Detroit 98 5
Florida Atlantic 79 - Florida Gulf Coast 63 0.85 Florida Atlantic 78 - Florida Gulf Coast 80 18
Georgetown 78 - Albany 65 0.827 Georgetown 100 - Albany 68 -19
Georgia 75 - Jacksonville 64 0.768 Georgia 102 - Jacksonville 56 -35
Georgia Tech 82 - Central Arkansas 64 0.893 Georgia Tech 87 - Central Arkansas 68 -1
Green Bay 66 - Campbell 71 0.629 Green Bay 66 - Campbell 72 1
High Point 86 - Unranked 57 High Point 81 - Unranked 50
Hofstra 75 - Tarleton State 64 0.742 Hofstra 59 - Tarleton State 61 13
Howard 69 - Mt St Marys 67 0.557 Howard 75 - Mt St Marys 79 6
Idaho 63 - UC Riverside 75 0.798 Idaho 80 - UC Riverside 68 -24
Iona 73 - Indiana State 72 0.502 Iona 80 - Indiana State 83 4
IUPUI 80 - Unranked 62 IUPUI 106 - Unranked 49
Kansas 81 - Furman 66 0.86 Kansas 86 - Furman 51 -20
Kennesaw St 66 - Kent State 73 0.702 Kennesaw St 60 - Kent State 67 0
La Salle 70 - Temple 74 0.599 La Salle 83 - Temple 75 -12
Lafayette 68 - Niagara 67 0.501 Lafayette 59 - Niagara 47 -11
Lamar 81 - Unranked 58 Lamar 88 - Unranked 54
Lehigh 66 - Marist 68 0.535 Lehigh 74 - Marist 69 -7
Louisiana Tech 78 - Southern 60 0.898 Louisiana Tech 70 - Southern 73 21
Marquette 86 - Western Carolina 61 0.94 Marquette 94 - Western Carolina 62 -7
Miami 85 - Charleston Southern 60 0.949 Miami 79 - Charleston Southern 83 29
Montana State 75 - Cal State Northridge 64 0.81 Montana State 69 - Cal State Northridge 72 14
Navy 68 - Elon 67 0.515 Navy 63 - Elon 69 7
New Mexico State 75 - Bowling Green 67 0.712 New Mexico State 60 - Bowling Green 61 9
North Carolina Central 84 - Unranked 55 North Carolina Central 131 - Unranked 51
Northern Kentucky 70 - Bellarmine 62 0.732 Northern Kentucky 86 - Bellarmine 70 -8
Ohio 74 - Robert Morris 64 0.769 Ohio 84 - Robert Morris 68 -6
Omaha 66 - Abilene Christian 75 0.735 Omaha 55 - Abilene Christian 71 7
Oregon 75 - Alabama 80 0.635 Oregon 83 - Alabama 81 -7
Oregon State 75 - UC Davis 68 0.702 Oregon State 90 - UC Davis 57 -26
Pacific 71 - Cal State Fullerton 70 0.516 Pacific 64 - Cal State Fullerton 55 -8
Pennsylvania 71 - Maine 64 0.672 Pennsylvania 77 - Maine 64 -6
Pepperdine 72 - Weber State 73 0.526 Pepperdine 53 - Weber State 68 14
Portland State 74 - Utah Tech 71 0.599 Portland State 71 - Utah Tech 68 0
Rider 70 - Delaware 69 0.531 Rider 66 - Delaware 72 7
Sacramento State 68 - Mercyhurst 63 0.652 Sacramento State 60 - Mercyhurst 66 11
Saint Johns 82 - Harvard 65 0.89 Saint Johns 77 - Harvard 64 4
San Diego State 66 - Houston 72 0.674 San Diego State 73 - Houston 70 -9
SE Missouri State 68 - UMKC 66 0.565 SE Missouri State 80 - UMKC 59 -19
Seton Hall 80 - Monmouth 60 0.897 Seton Hall 51 - Monmouth 63 32
Southern Miss 72 - Milwaukee 71 0.539 Southern Miss 66 - Milwaukee 65 0
Southern Utah 76 - Cal State Bakersfield 64 0.805 Southern Utah 74 - Cal State Bakersfield 64 2
Stanford 81 - Cal Poly 61 0.914 Stanford 90 - Cal Poly 97 27
Texas AM 73 - Rutgers 70 0.567 Texas AM 81 - Rutgers 77 -1
Texas AM CC 73 - Prairie View 65 0.742 Texas AM CC 109 - Prairie View 74 -27
Texas San Antonio 78 - Houston Christian 67 0.787 Texas San Antonio 78 - Houston Christian 71 4
Toledo 80 - Oakland 66 0.798 Toledo 52 - Oakland 85 47
Towson 66 - UC Irvine 71 0.638 Towson 60 - UC Irvine 67 2
UC San Diego 88 - Unranked 56 UC San Diego 109 - Unranked 33
UL Lafayette 74 - Nicholls State 67 0.7 UL Lafayette 75 - Nicholls State 76 8
UNC Wilmington 69 - Appalachian State 67 0.587 UNC Wilmington 76 - Appalachian State 61 -13
Utah 78 - Eastern Washington 70 0.746 Utah 88 - Eastern Washington 80 0
Vermont 72 - Northeastern 62 0.759 Vermont 68 - Northeastern 64 6
Western Kentucky 75 - Marshall 71 0.617 Western Kentucky 90 - Marshall 82 -4
Wisconsin 88 - Chicago State 54 0.984 Wisconsin 74 - Chicago State 53 13
Wright State 74 - Air Force 66 0.689 Wright State 70 - Air Force 57 -5
Youngstown State 89 - Unranked 56 Youngstown State 128 - Unranked 60

GAMES OF 12-1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Middle Tennessee 68 0.725 Alabama Birmingham 69 - Middle Tennessee 76 15
American 84 - Unranked 55 American 97 - Unranked 52
Arkansas State 67 - Hofstra 74 0.693 Arkansas State 66 - Hofstra 68 -5
Boston 71 - Sacred Heart 65 0.681 Boston 65 - Sacred Heart 73 14
Central Connecticut State 64 - UMass Lowell 73 0.739 Central Connecticut State 69 - UMass Lowell 67 -11
Central Florida 77 - Cal Baptist 66 0.788 Central Florida 74 - Cal Baptist 59 -4
Central Michigan 85 - Unranked 57 Central Michigan 115 - Unranked 69
Fairfield 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 67 0.634 Fairfield 78 - Fairleigh Dickinson 74 1
Fordham 71 - New Hampshire 61 0.763 Fordham 83 - New Hampshire 61 -12
Kansas State 86 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 0.972 Kansas State 120 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 73 -17
Lafayette 69 - Binghamton 65 0.627 Lafayette 81 - Binghamton 82 5
Longwood 87 - Unranked 52 Longwood 108 - Unranked 55
Maine 63 - Navy 68 0.637 Maine 71 - Navy 66 -10
Maryland 83 - Alcorn State 57 0.946 Maryland 96 - Alcorn State 58 -12
Massachusetts 79 - NJ Tech 62 0.874 Massachusetts 80 - NJ Tech 68 5
Minnesota 78 - Bethune Cookman 60 0.875 Minnesota 79 - Bethune Cookman 62 1
Morgan State 83 - Unranked 58 Morgan State 123 - Unranked 70
Nebraska 81 - North Florida 69 0.782 Nebraska 103 - North Florida 72 -19
Niagara 72 - LIU Brooklyn 66 0.663 Niagara 60 - LIU Brooklyn 52 -2
Oral Roberts 71 - Missouri State 73 0.55 Oral Roberts 67 - Missouri State 72 3
Penn State 84 - Buffalo 65 0.884 Penn State 87 - Buffalo 64 -4
Pennsylvania 71 - Elon 68 0.559 Pennsylvania 53 - Elon 68 18
Portland 76 - Denver 69 0.666 Portland 101 - Denver 90 -4
Rice 71 - Iona 74 0.567 Rice 70 - Iona 66 -7
Saint Francis Penn 65 - Radford 71 0.693 Saint Francis Penn 70 - Radford 79 3
San Francisco 81 - Mercyhurst 58 0.919 San Francisco 87 - Mercyhurst 59 -5
Stonehill 66 - Quinnipiac 70 0.625 Stonehill 88 - Quinnipiac 74 -18
Stony Brook 65 - Norfolk State 69 0.613 Stony Brook 66 - Norfolk State 77 7
Tarleton State 67 - Indiana State 74 0.679 Tarleton State 71 - Indiana State 87 9
Tennessee State 68 - UNC Asheville 73 0.65 Tennessee State 74 - UNC Asheville 92 13
Texas Southern 65 - Texas State 71 0.701 Texas Southern 59 - Texas State 72 7
Troy 72 - Eastern Kentucky 70 0.553 Troy 84 - Eastern Kentucky 74 -8
Wofford 73 - North Alabama 67 0.661 Wofford 74 - North Alabama 54 -14
Xavier 88 - South Carolina State 58 0.97 Xavier 71 - South Carolina State 68 27


Number of DI Games: 333
Number Correct: 223 = 66.9%
Expected Number Correct: 231.202 = 69.4%
Average Error: 10.06
Average Signed Error: -0.06

GAMES OF 12-2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Colorado 82 - Pacific 62 0.895 Colorado 75 - Pacific 66 11
Coppin State 62 - Loyola MD 73 0.792 Coppin State 57 - Loyola MD 68 0
Drexel 75 - Bryant 69 0.699 Drexel 73 - Bryant 78 11
Georgetown 82 - UMBC 65 0.851 Georgetown 86 - UMBC 62 -7
Jacksonville State 91 - Unranked 54 Jacksonville State 89 - Unranked 59
Miami OH 74 - Air Force 65 0.736 Miami OH 73 - Air Force 60 -4
Mississippi Valley State 77 - Unranked 61 Mississippi Valley State 91 - Unranked 71
Nevada 78 - Washington State 69 0.766 Nevada 57 - Washington State 68 20
Old Dominion 69 - William and Mary 77 0.715 Old Dominion 88 - William and Mary 83 -13
Rhode Island 79 - Yale 72 0.646 Rhode Island 84 - Yale 78 1
Saint Louis 83 - Jackson State 66 0.876 Saint Louis 74 - Jackson State 66 9
Saint Thomas 78 - Chicago State 61 0.86 Saint Thomas 98 - Chicago State 76 -5
South Dakota State 97 - Unranked 52 South Dakota State 78 - Unranked 62
Southern Indiana 88 - Unranked 57 Southern Indiana 104 - Unranked 46
Tulane 74 - Southeast Louisiana 70 0.629 Tulane 67 - Southeast Louisiana 71 8
UL Monroe 67 - Texas Arlington 76 0.796 UL Monroe 70 - Texas Arlington 84 5

GAMES OF 12-3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 76 - Northern Kentucky 68 0.767 Akron 86 - Northern Kentucky 73 -5
Appalachian State 90 - Unranked 51 Appalachian State 85 - Unranked 43
Arizona State 87 - San Diego 61 0.97 Arizona State 90 - San Diego 53 -11
Boise State 86 - Utah Tech 59 0.939 Boise State 87 - Utah Tech 64 4
Boston College 71 - South Carolina 73 0.537 Boston College 51 - South Carolina 73 20
Buffalo 87 - Unranked 60 Buffalo 100 - Unranked 65
Butler 85 - Eastern Illinois 56 0.938 Butler 73 - Eastern Illinois 58 14
Charleston Southern 70 - Tennessee Martin 69 0.512 Charleston Southern 83 - Tennessee Martin 68 -14
Chattanooga 71 - Lipscomb 72 0.526 Chattanooga 62 - Lipscomb 80 17
Clemson 75 - Kentucky 80 0.634 Clemson 70 - Kentucky 66 -9
College of Charleston 97 - Unranked 53 College of Charleston 94 - Unranked 71
Dayton 86 - Western Michigan 60 0.947 Dayton 77 - Western Michigan 69 18
Delaware 80 - Delaware State 63 0.905 Delaware 93 - Delaware State 80 4
Duquesne 67 - Saint Peters 66 0.526 Duquesne 59 - Saint Peters 62 4
East Carolina 73 - UNC Wilmington 70 0.573 East Carolina 53 - UNC Wilmington 67 17
Florida AM 69 - Presbyterian 74 0.631 Florida AM 66 - Presbyterian 63 -8
George Mason 77 - UNC Asheville 67 0.731 George Mason 74 - UNC Asheville 52 -12
Georgia 80 - Notre Dame 68 0.766 Georgia 69 - Notre Dame 48 -9
Grambling State 90 - Unranked 55 Grambling State 82 - Unranked 56
Grand Canyon 77 - Hawaii 72 0.689 Grand Canyon 78 - Hawaii 72 -1
Hampton 73 - North Carolina AT 68 0.673 Hampton 82 - North Carolina AT 71 -6
Indiana 83 - Sam Houston State 69 0.843 Indiana 97 - Sam Houston State 71 -12
Iowa 77 - Northwestern 73 0.642 Iowa 80 - Northwestern 79 3
James Madison 73 - East Tennessee State 72 0.529 James Madison 71 - East Tennessee State 61 -9
Le Moyne 72 - Army 70 0.548 Le Moyne 100 - Army 103 5
Louisiana State 76 - Florida State 75 0.541 Louisiana State 85 - Florida State 75 -9
Louisville 77 - Mississippi 74 0.572 Louisville 63 - Mississippi 86 26
Loyola Ill 82 - Eastern Michigan 60 0.91 Loyola Ill 76 - Eastern Michigan 54 0
Maine 86 - Unranked 54 Maine 103 - Unranked 51
Mcneese State 74 - Santa Clara 71 0.579 Mcneese State 67 - Santa Clara 74 10
Miami 70 - Arkansas 82 0.759 Miami 73 - Arkansas 76 -9
Missouri 79 - California 73 0.67 Missouri 98 - California 93 1
Murray State 78 - Evansville 65 0.775 Murray State 63 - Evansville 61 11
New Hampshire 66 - Dartmouth 70 0.595 New Hampshire 65 - Dartmouth 69 0
Northeastern 70 - La Salle 73 0.597 Northeastern 82 - La Salle 68 -17
Northern Illinois 83 - Unranked 60 Northern Illinois 89 - Unranked 70
Oklahoma 82 - Georgia Tech 68 0.881 Oklahoma 76 - Georgia Tech 61 -1
Providence 70 - Brigham Young 77 0.666 Providence 83 - Brigham Young 64 -26
Queens 71 - Winthrop 74 0.611 Queens 78 - Winthrop 86 5
Saint Josephs 75 - Princeton 71 0.606 Saint Josephs 69 - Princeton 77 12
Saint Marys 87 - Texas San Antonio 58 0.963 Saint Marys 82 - Texas San Antonio 74 21
South Florida 81 - Stetson 65 0.873 South Florida 74 - Stetson 72 14
Southern Illinois 67 - Bradley 75 0.728 Southern Illinois 60 - Bradley 83 15
Southern Methodist 85 - Alabama State 64 0.931 Southern Methodist 101 - Alabama State 72 -8
Southern Utah 93 - Unranked 54 Southern Utah 90 - Unranked 55
Stanford 79 - Utah Valley 67 0.767 Stanford 77 - Utah Valley 63 -2
Tarleton State 85 - Unranked 57 Tarleton State 90 - Unranked 50
Tennessee 87 - Syracuse 62 0.95 Tennessee 96 - Syracuse 70 -1
Texas AM 78 - Wake Forest 66 0.785 Texas AM 57 - Wake Forest 44 -1
The Citadel 84 - Unranked 57 The Citadel 94 - Unranked 57
UCLA 77 - Washington 65 0.798 UCLA 69 - Washington 58 1
UNC Greensboro 71 - High Point 69 0.551 UNC Greensboro 72 - High Point 68 -2
Vermont 70 - Brown 65 0.652 Vermont 53 - Brown 60 12
Villanova 67 - Cincinnati 75 0.698 Villanova 68 - Cincinnati 60 -16
Virginia Military Institute 86 - Unranked 60 Virginia Military Institute 113 - Unranked 51
Wisconsin 77 - Michigan 73 0.604 Wisconsin 64 - Michigan 67 7

GAMES OF 12-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Albany 69 - Columbia 77 0.745 Albany 88 - Columbia 73 -23
American 66 - George Washington 74 0.741 American 81 - George Washington 71 -18
Arkansas Little Rock 74 - Central Arkansas 64 0.74 Arkansas Little Rock 63 - Central Arkansas 57 4
Belmont 77 - Illinois State 70 0.72 Belmont 99 - Illinois State 97 5
Bucknell 63 - Saint Bonaventure 77 0.855 Bucknell 47 - Saint Bonaventure 64 3
Campbell 69 - Coastal Carolina 66 0.588 Campbell 57 - Coastal Carolina 58 4
Charlotte 90 - Unranked 53 Charlotte 83 - Unranked 61
Colgate 70 - Cornell 73 0.562 Colgate 57 - Cornell 84 24
Colorado State 74 - Loyola Marymount 68 0.668 Colorado State 83 - Loyola Marymount 54 -23
Connecticut 77 - Baylor 79 0.533 Connecticut 76 - Baylor 72 -6
Creighton 69 - Kansas 82 0.849 Creighton 76 - Kansas 63 -26
Denver 68 - Sacramento State 71 0.57 Denver 80 - Sacramento State 59 -24
Duke 73 - Auburn 77 0.628 Duke 84 - Auburn 78 -10
Eastern Washington 77 - North Dakota 68 0.76 Eastern Washington 87 - North Dakota 81 3
Fairfield 65 - Rider 66 0.516 Fairfield 78 - Rider 75 -4
Florida 79 - Virginia 62 0.873 Florida 87 - Virginia 69 -1
Florida Gulf Coast 66 - Furman 72 0.688 Florida Gulf Coast 73 - Furman 76 -3
Florida International 70 - Florida Atlantic 83 0.845 Florida International 77 - Florida Atlantic 88 -2
Fordham 80 - Fairleigh Dickinson 67 0.857 Fordham 84 - Fairleigh Dickinson 75 4
Fresno State 61 - San Diego State 83 0.946 Fresno State 62 - San Diego State 84 0
Holy Cross 71 - Harvard 70 0.501 Holy Cross 68 - Harvard 67 0
Illinois Chicago 73 - Northern Iowa 74 0.504 Illinois Chicago 56 - Northern Iowa 83 26
Iowa State 76 - Marquette 77 0.537 Iowa State 81 - Marquette 70 -12
IUPUI 70 - Green Bay 77 0.681 IUPUI 84 - Green Bay 75 -16
Lehigh 73 - Monmouth 72 0.538 Lehigh 90 - Monmouth 63 -26
Lindenwood 82 - Unranked 60 Lindenwood 102 - Unranked 45
LIU Brooklyn 84 - Unranked 60 LIU Brooklyn 103 - Unranked 53
Marshall 75 - Morehead State 66 0.723 Marshall 80 - Morehead State 77 6
Maryland 74 - Ohio State 75 0.521 Maryland 83 - Ohio State 59 -25
Massachusetts 73 - Central Connecticut State 67 0.669 Massachusetts 69 - Central Connecticut State 73 10
Memphis 83 - Louisiana Tech 67 0.923 Memphis 81 - Louisiana Tech 71 6
Mercer 75 - West Georgia 64 0.854 Mercer 86 - West Georgia 72 -3
Middle Tennessee 94 - Unranked 52 Middle Tennessee 103 - Unranked 55
Minnesota 66 - Michigan State 75 0.804 Minnesota 72 - Michigan State 90 9
Mississippi State 74 - Pittsburgh 77 0.58 Mississippi State 90 - Pittsburgh 57 -36
Montana 73 - South Dakota State 76 0.574 Montana 71 - South Dakota State 67 -7
Morgan State 83 - Unranked 63 Morgan State 124 - Unranked 57
NC State 72 - Texas 74 0.558 NC State 59 - Texas 63 2
New Mexico 85 - San Jose State 66 0.916 New Mexico 83 - San Jose State 77 13
New Mexico State 68 - Abilene Christian 70 0.541 New Mexico State 70 - Abilene Christian 78 6
North Alabama 75 - Tennessee Tech 71 0.587 North Alabama 82 - Tennessee Tech 59 -19
North Carolina 83 - Alabama 86 0.567 North Carolina 79 - Alabama 94 12
Northern Colorado 77 - Saint Thomas 71 0.672 Northern Colorado 75 - Saint Thomas 87 18
Omaha 66 - Montana State 76 0.751 Omaha 65 - Montana State 76 1
Oral Roberts 71 - Northern Arizona 70 0.537 Oral Roberts 83 - Northern Arizona 76 -6
Pepperdine 90 - Unranked 59 Pepperdine 119 - Unranked 57
Robert Morris 72 - Youngstown State 66 0.668 Robert Morris 58 - Youngstown State 72 20
Saint Francis Penn 87 - Unranked 58 Saint Francis Penn 107 - Unranked 55
Seattle 79 - Portland State 69 0.748 Seattle 91 - Portland State 74 -7
Seton Hall 78 - NJ Tech 54 0.93 Seton Hall 67 - NJ Tech 56 13
South Carolina Upstate 88 - Unranked 64 South Carolina Upstate 91 - Unranked 60
South Dakota 74 - Idaho State 75 0.509 South Dakota 94 - Idaho State 80 -15
Southern California 69 - Oregon 82 0.809 Southern California 60 - Oregon 68 -5
Texas State 91 - Unranked 51 Texas State 97 - Unranked 49
Texas Tech 79 - DePaul 69 0.723 Texas Tech 76 - DePaul 62 -4
Tulsa 69 - Oklahoma State 80 0.804 Tulsa 55 - Oklahoma State 76 10
UMKC 68 - Idaho 69 0.554 UMKC 77 - Idaho 82 4
Utah State 85 - Wyoming 61 0.937 Utah State 70 - Wyoming 67 21
Virginia Commonwealth 79 - Georgia Southern 62 0.919 Virginia Commonwealth 89 - Georgia Southern 54 -18
Virginia Tech 69 - Vanderbilt 78 0.74 Virginia Tech 64 - Vanderbilt 80 7
Wagner 70 - Coppin State 57 0.831 Wagner 65 - Coppin State 52 0
Weber State 75 - North Dakota State 70 0.637 Weber State 73 - North Dakota State 77 9
Western Carolina 77 - Bellarmine 70 0.678 Western Carolina 86 - Bellarmine 74 -5
Western Illinois 84 - Unranked 58 Western Illinois 97 - Unranked 64
Wichita State 85 - Alcorn State 58 0.948 Wichita State 78 - Alcorn State 54 3
William and Mary 91 - Unranked 59 William and Mary 109 - Unranked 55
Wofford 69 - Gardner Webb 72 0.577 Wofford 88 - Gardner Webb 64 -27

GAMES OF 12-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas State 81 - Jackson State 63 0.906 Arkansas State 66 - Jackson State 64 16
Cal State Fullerton 73 - Long Beach State 65 0.736 Cal State Fullerton 56 - Long Beach State 73 25
Cal State Northridge 77 - UC Riverside 70 0.648 Cal State Northridge 64 - UC Riverside 68 11
Detroit 68 - IPFW 76 0.72 Detroit 79 - IPFW 78 -9
Houston Christian 67 - East Texas AM 70 0.634 Houston Christian 83 - East Texas AM 79 -7
Incarnate Word 69 - Northwestern State 70 0.563 Incarnate Word 70 - Northwestern State 72 1
Jacksonville 91 - Unranked 56 Jacksonville 88 - Unranked 67
Lipscomb 77 - SE Missouri State 64 0.828 Lipscomb 78 - SE Missouri State 60 -5
Longwood 81 - Maryland Eastern Shore 58 0.929 Longwood 80 - Maryland Eastern Shore 76 19
Milwaukee 73 - Cleveland State 67 0.677 Milwaukee 79 - Cleveland State 67 -6
Nicholls State 71 - Southeast Louisiana 69 0.584 Nicholls State 67 - Southeast Louisiana 64 -1
North Carolina Central 65 - Radford 77 0.829 North Carolina Central 67 - Radford 70 -9
North Florida 96 - Unranked 57 North Florida 115 - Unranked 83
Oakland 71 - Wright State 70 0.518 Oakland 66 - Wright State 64 -1
Penn State 72 - Purdue 77 0.648 Penn State 81 - Purdue 70 -16
San Francisco 82 - Saint Louis 69 0.857 San Francisco 78 - Saint Louis 61 -4
South Carolina State 68 - Samford 82 0.877 South Carolina State 81 - Samford 88 -7
Southern Miss 73 - Alabama State 72 0.504 Southern Miss 81 - Alabama State 64 -16
Texas AM CC 81 - Lamar 67 0.897 Texas AM CC 61 - Lamar 65 18
Texas Christian 74 - Xavier 73 0.502 Texas Christian 76 - Xavier 72 -3
UC Davis 75 - Cal Poly 77 0.57 UC Davis 77 - Cal Poly 66 -13
UC Irvine 82 - Cal State Bakersfield 60 0.941 UC Irvine 82 - Cal State Bakersfield 66 6
UC Santa Barbara 73 - UC San Diego 72 0.527 UC Santa Barbara 76 - UC San Diego 84 9
Unranked 56 - Central Michigan 89 Unranked 69 - Central Michigan 93
UT Rio Grande Valley 75 - Stephen F Austin 69 0.675 UT Rio Grande Valley 68 - Stephen F Austin 65 3
Valparaiso 61 - Drake 80 0.913 Valparaiso 60 - Drake 66 -13

GAMES OF 12-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 87 - Prairie View 67 0.947 Alabama Birmingham 95 - Prairie View 66 -9
Bryant 74 - Brown 71 0.58 Bryant 75 - Brown 76 4
Canisius 63 - Merrimack 72 0.726 Canisius 52 - Merrimack 60 -1
Davidson 83 - Charleston Southern 63 0.889 Davidson 73 - Charleston Southern 72 19
Duquesne 69 - Delaware 71 0.57 Duquesne 80 - Delaware 66 -16
Eastern Illinois 85 - Unranked 58 Eastern Illinois 87 - Unranked 57
Eastern Kentucky 92 - Unranked 55 Eastern Kentucky 98 - Unranked 62
Florida AM 87 - Unranked 61 Florida AM 130 - Unranked 58
Florida International 88 - Unranked 58 Florida International 70 - Unranked 63
Georgia State 72 - Kennesaw St 76 0.651 Georgia State 77 - Kennesaw St 81 0
High Point 63 - North Texas 74 0.826 High Point 76 - North Texas 71 -16
Hofstra 93 - Unranked 52 Hofstra 114 - Unranked 46
Indiana 83 - Miami OH 66 0.873 Indiana 76 - Miami OH 57 -2
Kent State 79 - Portland 62 0.876 Kent State 76 - Portland 57 -2
Marist 68 - Mt St Marys 69 0.505 Marist 53 - Mt St Marys 50 -4
Niagara 68 - Siena 67 0.502 Niagara 69 - Siena 68 0
Northwestern 70 - Illinois 78 0.702 Northwestern 70 - Illinois 66 -12
Rider 71 - Quinnipiac 66 0.652 Rider 67 - Quinnipiac 72 10
Sacred Heart 69 - Iona 70 0.507 Sacred Heart 83 - Iona 59 -25
Saint Peters 74 - Manhattan 65 0.782 Saint Peters 67 - Manhattan 70 12
West Virginia 81 - Georgetown 68 0.77 West Virginia 73 - Georgetown 60 0
Western Illinois 84 - Unranked 58 Western Illinois 96 - Unranked 49

GAMES OF 12-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 70 - Stony Brook 66 0.588 Air Force 69 - Stony Brook 61 -4
Akron 96 - Unranked 55 Akron 101 - Unranked 48
Arizona 85 - Southern Utah 69 0.824 Arizona 102 - Southern Utah 66 -20
Arkansas 88 - Texas San Antonio 62 0.939 Arkansas 75 - Texas San Antonio 60 11
Arkansas Pine Bluff 70 - Central Arkansas 77 0.704 Arkansas Pine Bluff 84 - Central Arkansas 78 -13
Bellarmine 87 - Unranked 61 Bellarmine 94 - Unranked 66
Belmont 75 - Middle Tennessee 73 0.557 Belmont 82 - Middle Tennessee 79 -1
Boise State 77 - Washington State 71 0.645 Boise State 69 - Washington State 74 11
Boston 70 - Albany 67 0.598 Boston 80 - Albany 74 -3
Bowling Green 79 - Morgan State 67 0.818 Bowling Green 102 - Morgan State 81 -9
Cal Poly 78 - Cal State Northridge 76 0.56 Cal Poly 91 - Cal State Northridge 102 13
California 76 - Stanford 75 0.53 California 81 - Stanford 89 9
Colorado 79 - Colorado State 69 0.757 Colorado 72 - Colorado State 55 -7
Columbia 94 - Unranked 55 Columbia 98 - Unranked 49
Creighton 78 - Nevada Las Vegas 71 0.733 Creighton 83 - Nevada Las Vegas 65 -11
Dayton 87 - Lehigh 60 0.949 Dayton 86 - Lehigh 62 3
Delaware State 66 - Loyola MD 71 0.667 Delaware State 80 - Loyola MD 77 -8
Detroit 67 - Wright State 75 0.709 Detroit 72 - Wright State 80 0
Elon 72 - Wofford 67 0.624 Elon 79 - Wofford 56 -18
Evansville 68 - Western Kentucky 78 0.769 Evansville 65 - Western Kentucky 79 4
Fairleigh Dickinson 87 - Unranked 63 Fairleigh Dickinson 98 - Unranked 54
Furman 75 - Princeton 68 0.727 Furman 69 - Princeton 63 1
Gardner Webb 79 - North Carolina Central 65 0.892 Gardner Webb 77 - North Carolina Central 78 15
George Mason 79 - Tulane 67 0.789 George Mason 76 - Tulane 64 0
Georgia Southern 74 - North Florida 76 0.583 Georgia Southern 93 - North Florida 91 -4
Gonzaga 85 - Kentucky 80 0.624 Gonzaga 89 - Kentucky 90 6
Grand Canyon 99 - Unranked 52 Grand Canyon 100 - Unranked 52
Green Bay 71 - Cleveland State 72 0.502 Green Bay 61 - Cleveland State 83 21
Holy Cross 66 - Central Connecticut State 69 0.561 Holy Cross 56 - Central Connecticut State 69 10
Houston 77 - Butler 68 0.709 Houston 79 - Butler 51 -19
Houston Christian 65 - Northwestern State 73 0.762 Houston Christian 57 - Northwestern State 64 -1
Idaho State 77 - Oral Roberts 68 0.797 Idaho State 71 - Oral Roberts 55 -7
Illinois State 74 - Pacific 67 0.708 Illinois State 72 - Pacific 61 -4
Incarnate Word 71 - East Texas AM 68 0.608 Incarnate Word 65 - East Texas AM 53 -9
IUPUI 64 - Northern Kentucky 76 0.869 IUPUI 64 - Northern Kentucky 66 -10
James Madison 76 - Utah Valley 68 0.673 James Madison 78 - Utah Valley 61 -9
Le Moyne 73 - Binghamton 67 0.676 Le Moyne 62 - Binghamton 72 16
Liberty 84 - Mississippi Valley State 47 0.985 Liberty 89 - Mississippi Valley State 52 0
Long Beach State 64 - Hawaii 79 0.886 Long Beach State 76 - Hawaii 68 -23
Loyola Ill 77 - South Florida 66 0.76 Loyola Ill 74 - South Florida 72 9
Loyola Marymount 64 - Nevada 79 0.864 Loyola Marymount 68 - Nevada 64 -19
Marquette 79 - Wisconsin 73 0.647 Marquette 88 - Wisconsin 74 -8
Massachusetts 76 - UMass Lowell 74 0.572 Massachusetts 83 - UMass Lowell 96 15
Mcneese State 96 - Unranked 50 Mcneese State 103 - Unranked 69
Mercyhurst 65 - Lafayette 67 0.581 Mercyhurst 73 - Lafayette 77 2
Miami 68 - Clemson 82 0.815 Miami 55 - Clemson 65 -4
Michigan 79 - Iowa 73 0.658 Michigan 85 - Iowa 83 4
Michigan State 76 - Nebraska 72 0.617 Michigan State 89 - Nebraska 52 -33
Mississippi 87 - Lindenwood 56 0.989 Mississippi 86 - Lindenwood 53 -2
Missouri State 78 - Indiana State 73 0.629 Missouri State 77 - Indiana State 80 8
Montana State 76 - UMKC 60 0.857 Montana State 74 - UMKC 62 4
NC State 72 - Florida State 74 0.563 NC State 84 - Florida State 74 -12
New Mexico 85 - New Mexico State 64 0.94 New Mexico 83 - New Mexico State 89 27
Nicholls State 77 - New Orleans 68 0.742 Nicholls State 73 - New Orleans 70 6
NJ Tech 67 - Navy 72 0.636 NJ Tech 69 - Navy 64 -10
North Carolina 88 - Georgia Tech 70 0.909 North Carolina 68 - Georgia Tech 65 15
North Carolina AT 67 - UNC Greensboro 75 0.755 North Carolina AT 55 - UNC Greensboro 67 4
North Dakota 67 - Weber State 76 0.729 North Dakota 80 - Weber State 75 -14
North Dakota State 73 - Northern Colorado 76 0.588 North Dakota State 82 - Northern Colorado 70 -15
Northern Arizona 72 - South Dakota 74 0.57 Northern Arizona 95 - South Dakota 82 -15
Northern Iowa 79 - Northern Illinois 61 0.879 Northern Iowa 101 - Northern Illinois 57 -26
Notre Dame 76 - Syracuse 75 0.537 Notre Dame 69 - Syracuse 64 -4
Ohio 76 - Morehead State 67 0.765 Ohio 88 - Morehead State 76 -3
Ohio State 84 - Rutgers 71 0.807 Ohio State 80 - Rutgers 66 -1
Oklahoma 88 - Alcorn State 55 0.99 Oklahoma 94 - Alcorn State 78 17
Old Dominion 63 - George Washington 79 0.876 Old Dominion 70 - George Washington 78 -8
Oregon State 84 - Idaho 60 0.952 Oregon State 78 - Idaho 62 8
Pennsylvania 64 - Drexel 77 0.818 Pennsylvania 47 - Drexel 60 0
Pepperdine 71 - Grambling State 73 0.543 Pepperdine 85 - Grambling State 57 -30
Portland State 79 - Denver 69 0.747 Portland State 67 - Denver 68 11
Rhode Island 75 - Providence 71 0.599 Rhode Island 69 - Providence 63 -2
Sacramento State 70 - Omaha 67 0.599 Sacramento State 60 - Omaha 70 13
Saint Bonaventure 82 - Buffalo 60 0.945 Saint Bonaventure 65 - Buffalo 55 12
Saint Johns 80 - Kansas State 72 0.726 Saint Johns 88 - Kansas State 71 -9
Saint Josephs 72 - La Salle 73 0.511 Saint Josephs 82 - La Salle 68 -15
Saint Thomas 71 - Montana 73 0.556 Saint Thomas 88 - Montana 81 -9
Sam Houston State 80 - Texas Southern 66 0.896 Sam Houston State 87 - Texas Southern 71 -2
San Diego State 86 - San Diego 58 0.972 San Diego State 74 - San Diego 57 11
Santa Clara 80 - Fresno State 66 0.815 Santa Clara 81 - Fresno State 66 -1
South Carolina 74 - East Carolina 68 0.652 South Carolina 75 - East Carolina 68 -1
South Dakota State 80 - Eastern Washington 69 0.786 South Dakota State 74 - Eastern Washington 53 -10
Southern Illinois 75 - Southern Indiana 67 0.708 Southern Illinois 73 - Southern Indiana 70 5
Southern Methodist 74 - Virginia 67 0.676 Southern Methodist 63 - Virginia 51 -5
Tennessee Martin 85 - Unranked 57 Tennessee Martin 112 - Unranked 60
Texas AM CC 73 - Stephen F Austin 69 0.672 Texas AM CC 67 - Stephen F Austin 48 -15
Texas El Paso 71 - Seattle 70 0.512 Texas El Paso 88 - Seattle 72 -15
Toledo 95 - Unranked 57 Toledo 111 - Unranked 49
Towson 76 - UMBC 65 0.759 Towson 71 - UMBC 84 24
Tulsa 72 - Southern 71 0.536 Tulsa 66 - Southern 70 5
UC Davis 68 - UC Santa Barbara 75 0.669 UC Davis 71 - UC Santa Barbara 60 -18
UC Riverside 74 - Cal State Fullerton 68 0.634 UC Riverside 75 - Cal State Fullerton 68 -1
UC San Diego 78 - Cal State Bakersfield 64 0.808 UC San Diego 81 - Cal State Bakersfield 60 -7
UNC Asheville 92 - Unranked 55 UNC Asheville 120 - Unranked 64
UNC Wilmington 75 - Marshall 71 0.612 UNC Wilmington 78 - Marshall 69 -5
UT Rio Grande Valley 83 - Lamar 67 0.872 UT Rio Grande Valley 52 - Lamar 84 48
Utah 71 - Saint Marys 76 0.628 Utah 63 - Saint Marys 72 4
Utah State 90 - Utah Tech 57 0.99 Utah State 92 - Utah Tech 62 3
Villanova 76 - Temple 70 0.652 Villanova 94 - Temple 65 -23
Virginia Military Institute 70 - Queens 73 0.577 Virginia Military Institute 78 - Queens 81 0
Virginia Tech 63 - Pittsburgh 82 0.896 Virginia Tech 59 - Pittsburgh 64 -14
Wake Forest 73 - Boston College 68 0.622 Wake Forest 72 - Boston College 66 -1
Washington 75 - Southern California 71 0.616 Washington 61 - Southern California 85 28
West Georgia 65 - Tennessee Tech 72 0.69 West Georgia 78 - Tennessee Tech 73 -12
Western Carolina 80 - South Carolina Upstate 71 0.728 Western Carolina 68 - South Carolina Upstate 74 15
Wichita State 76 - East Tennessee State 70 0.67 Wichita State 96 - East Tennessee State 87 -3
Winthrop 74 - Coastal Carolina 65 0.759 Winthrop 96 - Coastal Carolina 89 2
Yale 74 - Vermont 67 0.702 Yale 65 - Vermont 50 -8
Youngstown State 65 - Oakland 73 0.645 Youngstown State 66 - Oakland 50 -24

GAMES OF 12-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 70 - Cornell 76 0.685 Army 84 - Cornell 103 13
Auburn 90 - Richmond 57 0.985 Auburn 98 - Richmond 54 -11
Bryant 92 - Unranked 57 Bryant 122 - Unranked 63
Canisius 64 - Siena 72 0.677 Canisius 53 - Siena 66 5
Central Florida 83 - Tarleton State 60 0.92 Central Florida 66 - Tarleton State 51 8
Cincinnati 86 - Howard 56 0.978 Cincinnati 84 - Howard 67 13
Fordham 70 - Maine 66 0.616 Fordham 87 - Maine 72 -11
Illinois Chicago 80 - Dartmouth 67 0.762 Illinois Chicago 69 - Dartmouth 68 12
Iona 68 - Saint Peters 67 0.512 Iona 72 - Saint Peters 63 -8
Iowa State 92 - Jackson State 57 0.982 Iowa State 100 - Jackson State 58 -7
IPFW 75 - Robert Morris 67 0.753 IPFW 82 - Robert Morris 77 3
Longwood 91 - Unranked 53 Longwood 97 - Unranked 40
Louisiana State 80 - Florida Gulf Coast 64 0.896 Louisiana State 80 - Florida Gulf Coast 71 7
Louisville 70 - Duke 76 0.644 Louisville 65 - Duke 76 5
Manhattan 69 - Marist 71 0.568 Manhattan 75 - Marist 82 5
Maryland Eastern Shore 61 - Wagner 68 0.674 Maryland Eastern Shore 61 - Wagner 63 -5
Memphis 85 - Arkansas State 65 0.946 Memphis 72 - Arkansas State 85 33
Mississippi State 95 - Prairie View 57 0.996 Mississippi State 91 - Prairie View 84 31
Missouri 70 - Kansas 82 0.772 Missouri 76 - Kansas 67 -21
Mt St Marys 71 - Fairfield 65 0.673 Mt St Marys 101 - Fairfield 94 -1
Murray State 78 - SE Missouri State 64 0.816 Murray State 73 - SE Missouri State 53 -6
New Hampshire 63 - Harvard 72 0.738 New Hampshire 62 - Harvard 72 1
Niagara 65 - Merrimack 67 0.568 Niagara 62 - Merrimack 80 16
Northeastern 72 - Colgate 66 0.665 Northeastern 78 - Colgate 75 3
Oregon 76 - UCLA 71 0.629 Oregon 71 - UCLA 73 7
Purdue 78 - Maryland 69 0.711 Purdue 83 - Maryland 78 4
Quinnipiac 72 - Sacred Heart 70 0.552 Quinnipiac 83 - Sacred Heart 73 -8
Radford 76 - Bucknell 65 0.791 Radford 74 - Bucknell 70 7
Saint Louis 83 - Chicago State 62 0.902 Saint Louis 85 - Chicago State 62 -2
Samford 79 - Austin Peay 70 0.742 Samford 72 - Austin Peay 47 -16
Seton Hall 70 - Oklahoma State 71 0.538 Seton Hall 76 - Oklahoma State 85 8
SIU Edwardsville 71 - Ball State 66 0.646 SIU Edwardsville 82 - Ball State 69 -8
South Alabama 69 - Jacksonville State 68 0.543 South Alabama 76 - Jacksonville State 74 -1
Stetson 71 - Mercer 75 0.616 Stetson 83 - Mercer 89 2
Texas 74 - Connecticut 75 0.513 Texas 65 - Connecticut 76 10
Texas Christian 74 - Vanderbilt 77 0.585 Texas Christian 74 - Vanderbilt 83 6
Texas State 70 - Rice 68 0.559 Texas State 75 - Rice 66 -7
Texas Tech 73 - Texas AM 74 0.503 Texas Tech 67 - Texas AM 72 4
UL Lafayette 68 - Louisiana Tech 81 0.882 UL Lafayette 58 - Louisiana Tech 69 -2


Number of DI Games: 289
Number Correct: 202 = 69.8%
Expected Number Correct: 207.109 = 71.6%
Average Error: 9.71
Average Signed Error: -0.55

GAMES OF 12-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Baylor 85 - Abilene Christian 64 0.863 Baylor 88 - Abilene Christian 57 -10
Boston 86 - Unranked 54 Boston 113 - Unranked 75
Columbia 92 - Unranked 56 Columbia 92 - Unranked 46
Indiana 79 - Minnesota 66 0.834 Indiana 82 - Minnesota 67 -2
Norfolk State 71 - Hofstra 68 0.564 Norfolk State 67 - Hofstra 80 16
San Jose State 91 - Unranked 55 San Jose State 117 - Unranked 80
South Carolina State 72 - Charleston Southern 71 0.502 South Carolina State 82 - Charleston Southern 63 -18
Virginia Commonwealth 82 - Pennsylvania 55 0.954 Virginia Commonwealth 66 - Pennsylvania 47 8

GAMES OF 12-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas Little Rock 88 - Unranked 54 Arkansas Little Rock 80 - Unranked 57
Brown 67 - Rhode Island 77 0.746 Brown 84 - Rhode Island 80 -14
Butler 80 - North Dakota State 65 0.806 Butler 68 - North Dakota State 71 18
Cal State Fullerton 87 - Unranked 57 Cal State Fullerton 61 - Unranked 55
California 79 - Cornell 74 0.627 California 80 - Cornell 88 13
Davidson 76 - Charlotte 66 0.741 Davidson 75 - Charlotte 71 6
Delaware 92 - Unranked 58 Delaware 78 - Unranked 51
Denver 87 - Unranked 59 Denver 94 - Unranked 87
DePaul 72 - Providence 71 0.519 DePaul 63 - Providence 70 8
Duke 89 - Incarnate Word 53 0.994 Duke 72 - Incarnate Word 46 10
Florida Atlantic 82 - Jacksonville 71 0.771 Florida Atlantic 85 - Jacksonville 63 -11
Hampton 87 - Unranked 55 Hampton 86 - Unranked 68
Houston 84 - Troy 61 0.954 Houston 62 - Troy 42 3
Illinois 80 - Wisconsin 74 0.636 Illinois 86 - Wisconsin 80 0
Lindenwood 83 - Unranked 59 Lindenwood 99 - Unranked 53
Mercyhurst 82 - Unranked 58 Mercyhurst 77 - Unranked 51
Miami 63 - Tennessee 87 0.947 Miami 62 - Tennessee 75 -11
Michigan 76 - Arkansas 72 0.589 Michigan 87 - Arkansas 89 6
Montana 94 - Unranked 53 Montana 89 - Unranked 60
NC State 87 - Coppin State 52 0.996 NC State 66 - Coppin State 56 25
Nicholls State 89 - Unranked 56 Nicholls State 110 - Unranked 66
Portland 74 - UMKC 68 0.657 Portland 64 - UMKC 69 11
Princeton 82 - Monmouth 64 0.848 Princeton 71 - Monmouth 67 14
Queens 88 - Unranked 58 Queens 91 - Unranked 53
Rutgers 74 - Penn State 83 0.739 Rutgers 80 - Penn State 76 -13
Saint Josephs 75 - College of Charleston 73 0.534 Saint Josephs 75 - College of Charleston 78 5
San Diego 72 - Long Beach State 70 0.546 San Diego 70 - Long Beach State 76 8
South Dakota 73 - Wyoming 77 0.578 South Dakota 82 - Wyoming 81 -5
Southern 89 - Unranked 54 Southern 94 - Unranked 69
Syracuse 82 - Albany 68 0.835 Syracuse 102 - Albany 85 -3
Temple 94 - Unranked 56 Temple 110 - Unranked 81
Tulane 74 - Southern Miss 71 0.571 Tulane 86 - Southern Miss 58 -25
UMBC 91 - Unranked 59 UMBC 103 - Unranked 57
Washington 80 - Eastern Washington 68 0.812 Washington 87 - Eastern Washington 69 -6
West Virginia 86 - North Carolina Central 59 0.942 West Virginia 79 - North Carolina Central 45 -7
Western Kentucky 87 - Tennessee State 63 0.984 Western Kentucky 84 - Tennessee State 60 0
Xavier 89 - Morgan State 59 0.963 Xavier 119 - Morgan State 58 -31

GAMES OF 12-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama State 73 - Tennessee Martin 67 0.662 Alabama State 103 - Tennessee Martin 93 -4
Baylor 83 - Norfolk State 66 0.833 Baylor 94 - Norfolk State 69 -8
Brigham Young 85 - Fresno State 66 0.901 Brigham Young 95 - Fresno State 67 -9
Coastal Carolina 86 - Unranked 55 Coastal Carolina 82 - Unranked 57
Delaware State 71 - NJ Tech 67 0.64 Delaware State 71 - NJ Tech 59 -8
Duquesne 69 - Maine 65 0.607 Duquesne 56 - Maine 61 9
East Carolina 74 - North Alabama 68 0.66 East Carolina 67 - North Alabama 74 13
Green Bay 69 - Milwaukee 79 0.742 Green Bay 67 - Milwaukee 88 11
Howard 88 - Unranked 59 Howard 124 - Unranked 50
IPFW 81 - IUPUI 64 0.907 IPFW 78 - IUPUI 76 15
Kentucky 92 - Colgate 59 0.967 Kentucky 78 - Colgate 67 22
Louisville 77 - Texas El Paso 68 0.682 Louisville 77 - Texas El Paso 74 6
Nevada 76 - South Dakota State 68 0.687 Nevada 77 - South Dakota State 63 -6
Northern Kentucky 88 - Unranked 54 Northern Kentucky 98 - Unranked 79
Notre Dame 81 - Dartmouth 62 0.881 Notre Dame 77 - Dartmouth 65 7
Pittsburgh 84 - Eastern Kentucky 64 0.89 Pittsburgh 96 - Eastern Kentucky 56 -20
Presbyterian 88 - Unranked 57 Presbyterian 97 - Unranked 57
Saint Johns 87 - Bryant 65 0.948 Saint Johns 99 - Bryant 77 0
San Diego State 82 - Cal Baptist 62 0.934 San Diego State 81 - Cal Baptist 75 14
San Francisco 99 - Unranked 47 San Francisco 68 - Unranked 52
Stonehill 86 - Unranked 57 Stonehill 97 - Unranked 53
UL Lafayette 69 - Southeast Louisiana 72 0.585 UL Lafayette 68 - Southeast Louisiana 61 -10
UL Monroe 77 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 69 0.73 UL Monroe 89 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 73 -8
UMass Lowell 81 - LIU Brooklyn 65 0.878 UMass Lowell 69 - LIU Brooklyn 62 9
UNC Asheville 90 - Unranked 56 UNC Asheville 92 - Unranked 46
Utah Valley 76 - North Dakota 68 0.689 Utah Valley 80 - North Dakota 57 -15
Villanova 88 - Fairleigh Dickinson 60 0.946 Villanova 86 - Fairleigh Dickinson 72 14
Wright State 76 - Marshall 70 0.649 Wright State 88 - Marshall 79 -3

GAMES OF 12-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas State 79 - Texas Arlington 70 0.746 Arkansas State 83 - Texas Arlington 79 5
Drake 97 - Unranked 44 Drake 90 - Unranked 35
Evansville 70 - Chattanooga 73 0.589 Evansville 67 - Chattanooga 75 5
Iowa 76 - Iowa State 82 0.693 Iowa 80 - Iowa State 89 3
Texas 81 - New Mexico State 63 0.926 Texas 91 - New Mexico State 67 -6
The Citadel 67 - Campbell 68 0.507 The Citadel 58 - Campbell 86 27
Virginia 76 - Bethune Cookman 58 0.888 Virginia 59 - Bethune Cookman 41 0
Virginia Military Institute 85 - Unranked 60 Virginia Military Institute 100 - Unranked 61
Virginia Tech 81 - North Carolina AT 63 0.918 Virginia Tech 95 - North Carolina AT 67 -10
Winthrop 94 - Unranked 56 Winthrop 103 - Unranked 55

GAMES OF 12-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Colorado 77 - South Dakota State 69 0.707 Colorado 81 - South Dakota State 70 -3
George Washington 79 - Army 69 0.783 George Washington 75 - Army 60 -5
Louisiana Tech 79 - Georgia Southern 67 0.857 Louisiana Tech 77 - Georgia Southern 63 -2
Merrimack 68 - Boston 64 0.626 Merrimack 64 - Boston 61 1
Nebraska 74 - Indiana 76 0.549 Nebraska 85 - Indiana 68 -19
North Dakota State 93 - Unranked 54 North Dakota State 91 - Unranked 62
Northern Iowa 79 - Omaha 63 0.85 Northern Iowa 78 - Omaha 58 -4
Saint Thomas 78 - Western Michigan 67 0.782 Saint Thomas 77 - Western Michigan 71 5
Texas San Antonio 78 - North Dakota 72 0.678 Texas San Antonio 80 - North Dakota 76 2
Utah Tech 69 - Weber State 73 0.62 Utah Tech 71 - Weber State 73 -2

GAMES OF 12-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 91 - Unranked 53 Abilene Christian 93 - Unranked 62
Alabama 87 - Creighton 75 0.78 Alabama 83 - Creighton 75 4
Albany 68 - Drexel 71 0.583 Albany 70 - Drexel 77 4
Arizona 74 - UCLA 77 0.572 Arizona 54 - UCLA 57 0
Arizona State 74 - Florida 79 0.652 Arizona State 66 - Florida 83 12
Arkansas 88 - Central Arkansas 57 0.958 Arkansas 82 - Central Arkansas 57 6
Austin Peay 66 - Southern Illinois 68 0.57 Austin Peay 60 - Southern Illinois 65 3
Bellarmine 70 - Ball State 72 0.553 Bellarmine 82 - Ball State 86 2
Boise State 70 - Saint Marys 74 0.606 Boise State 67 - Saint Marys 65 -6
Brigham Young 80 - Wyoming 66 0.788 Brigham Young 68 - Wyoming 49 -5
Butler 74 - Wisconsin 75 0.521 Butler 74 - Wisconsin 83 8
California 78 - Northwestern State 66 0.844 California 84 - Northwestern State 66 -6
Canisius 63 - Maine 73 0.721 Canisius 79 - Maine 84 -5
Central Florida 82 - Tulsa 64 0.896 Central Florida 88 - Tulsa 75 5
Cincinnati 76 - Xavier 69 0.673 Cincinnati 68 - Xavier 65 4
Clemson 76 - Memphis 72 0.606 Clemson 82 - Memphis 87 9
Cleveland State 87 - Unranked 55 Cleveland State 103 - Unranked 37
Connecticut 75 - Gonzaga 82 0.649 Connecticut 77 - Gonzaga 71 -13
Davidson 79 - Detroit 66 0.826 Davidson 86 - Detroit 51 -22
Dayton 73 - Marquette 79 0.663 Dayton 71 - Marquette 63 -14
DePaul 73 - Wichita State 74 0.514 DePaul 91 - Wichita State 72 -20
Duquesne 66 - Towson 67 0.535 Duquesne 65 - Towson 47 -19
Eastern Kentucky 77 - Eastern Illinois 66 0.773 Eastern Kentucky 81 - Eastern Illinois 66 -4
Elon 91 - Unranked 53 Elon 114 - Unranked 52
Florida Atlantic 77 - Texas State 72 0.663 Florida Atlantic 89 - Texas State 80 -4
Florida State 82 - Tulane 67 0.854 Florida State 77 - Tulane 64 2
Fordham 74 - Bryant 72 0.561 Fordham 86 - Bryant 84 0
Fresno State 75 - San Diego 71 0.635 Fresno State 73 - San Diego 65 -4
Furman 80 - South Carolina State 59 0.931 Furman 68 - South Carolina State 64 17
Gardner Webb 75 - Queens 68 0.666 Gardner Webb 83 - Queens 85 9
Georgia 79 - Grand Canyon 70 0.712 Georgia 73 - Grand Canyon 68 4
Georgia State 70 - Charlotte 71 0.523 Georgia State 63 - Charlotte 77 13
Hawaii 74 - Texas AM CC 72 0.547 Hawaii 71 - Texas AM CC 62 -7
High Point 70 - Appalachian State 69 0.513 High Point 65 - Appalachian State 59 -5
Howard 65 - UNC Wilmington 77 0.802 Howard 88 - UNC Wilmington 83 -17
Idaho State 89 - Unranked 55 Idaho State 97 - Unranked 43
Illinois 73 - Tennessee 78 0.619 Illinois 64 - Tennessee 66 -3
Jacksonville 71 - East Tennessee State 73 0.553 Jacksonville 60 - East Tennessee State 52 -10
Jacksonville State 72 - Utah Valley 69 0.576 Jacksonville State 70 - Utah Valley 66 -1
Kansas 79 - NC State 67 0.811 Kansas 75 - NC State 60 -3
Kentucky 86 - Louisville 71 0.813 Kentucky 93 - Louisville 85 7
Le Moyne 86 - Unranked 60 Le Moyne 106 - Unranked 51
Liberty 85 - North Carolina AT 58 0.985 Liberty 83 - North Carolina AT 74 18
Lindenwood 70 - IUPUI 69 0.562 Lindenwood 81 - IUPUI 63 -17
Longwood 75 - North Carolina Central 65 0.802 Longwood 70 - North Carolina Central 77 17
Loyola Marymount 84 - Prairie View 65 0.836 Loyola Marymount 76 - Prairie View 75 18
Marshall 75 - Ohio 74 0.505 Marshall 79 - Ohio 70 -8
Maryland Eastern Shore 82 - Unranked 63 Maryland Eastern Shore 91 - Unranked 65
Massachusetts 91 - Unranked 58 Massachusetts 86 - Unranked 52
Mississippi 85 - Southern Miss 63 0.913 Mississippi 77 - Southern Miss 46 -9
Mississippi State 80 - Mcneese State 66 0.793 Mississippi State 66 - Mcneese State 63 11
Missouri 89 - LIU Brooklyn 58 0.959 Missouri 88 - LIU Brooklyn 61 4
Mt St Marys 74 - Loyola MD 65 0.806 Mt St Marys 69 - Loyola MD 77 17
Nevada 85 - Texas Southern 60 0.959 Nevada 105 - Texas Southern 73 -7
Nevada Las Vegas 78 - Pacific 65 0.841 Nevada Las Vegas 72 - Pacific 65 6
New Mexico 101 - Unranked 54 New Mexico 122 - Unranked 70
Niagara 70 - Saint Francis Penn 69 0.526 Niagara 69 - Saint Francis Penn 66 -2
NJ Tech 61 - Wagner 66 0.665 NJ Tech 43 - Wagner 50 2
North Carolina 87 - La Salle 69 0.881 North Carolina 93 - La Salle 67 -8
North Florida 72 - UNC Greensboro 74 0.541 North Florida 89 - UNC Greensboro 77 -14
Ohio State 73 - Auburn 84 0.773 Ohio State 53 - Auburn 91 27
Oklahoma State 73 - Oklahoma 79 0.708 Oklahoma State 65 - Oklahoma 80 9
Oregon State 71 - UC Irvine 72 0.542 Oregon State 67 - UC Irvine 55 -13
Penn State 95 - Coppin State 51 0.997 Penn State 99 - Coppin State 51 -4
Pepperdine 74 - Northern Arizona 69 0.625 Pepperdine 86 - Northern Arizona 76 -5
Portland State 90 - Unranked 60 Portland State 110 - Unranked 48
Providence 66 - Saint Bonaventure 68 0.539 Providence 70 - Saint Bonaventure 74 2
Purdue 76 - Texas AM 71 0.657 Purdue 66 - Texas AM 70 9
Richmond 70 - Belmont 77 0.677 Richmond 86 - Belmont 93 0
Rider 72 - Stony Brook 65 0.709 Rider 55 - Stony Brook 72 24
Rutgers 76 - Seton Hall 67 0.72 Rutgers 66 - Seton Hall 63 6
Sacramento State 60 - UC Davis 75 0.814 Sacramento State 62 - UC Davis 69 -8
San Jose State 76 - Cal Poly 75 0.519 San Jose State 107 - Cal Poly 100 -6
Santa Clara 72 - Bradley 75 0.575 Santa Clara 84 - Bradley 74 -13
Seattle 93 - Unranked 54 Seattle 111 - Unranked 44
South Carolina 87 - South Carolina Upstate 62 0.938 South Carolina 73 - South Carolina Upstate 53 5
South Dakota 78 - Western Illinois 69 0.718 South Dakota 89 - Western Illinois 66 -14
Southern Methodist 78 - Louisiana State 77 0.558 Southern Methodist 74 - Louisiana State 64 -9
Stetson 71 - Florida International 75 0.634 Stetson 72 - Florida International 81 5
Syracuse 76 - Georgetown 75 0.504 Syracuse 71 - Georgetown 75 5
Tennessee State 87 - Unranked 63 Tennessee State 89 - Unranked 58
Texas Arlington 80 - UL Monroe 65 0.906 Texas Arlington 77 - UL Monroe 68 6
Troy 94 - Unranked 53 Troy 87 - Unranked 53
UC Santa Barbara 83 - Green Bay 65 0.857 UC Santa Barbara 83 - Green Bay 66 1
UL Lafayette 69 - Lamar 74 0.615 UL Lafayette 45 - Lamar 74 24
UMass Lowell 80 - Dartmouth 67 0.792 UMass Lowell 92 - Dartmouth 83 4
UMKC 68 - Bowling Green 72 0.623 UMKC 85 - Bowling Green 77 -12
UNC Asheville 76 - Western Carolina 68 0.69 UNC Asheville 78 - Western Carolina 61 -9
UT Rio Grande Valley 93 - Unranked 58 UT Rio Grande Valley 72 - Unranked 60
Utah 79 - Radford 67 0.818 Utah 81 - Radford 63 -6
Utah State 84 - South Florida 65 0.919 Utah State 88 - South Florida 67 -2
Valparaiso 71 - Central Michigan 73 0.564 Valparaiso 93 - Central Michigan 77 -18
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Colorado State 68 0.654 Virginia Commonwealth 76 - Colorado State 68 -2
Washington State 80 - Missouri State 66 0.874 Washington State 91 - Missouri State 78 1
West Virginia 86 - Bethune Cookman 58 0.928 West Virginia 84 - Bethune Cookman 61 5
Western Kentucky 75 - Murray State 70 0.669 Western Kentucky 81 - Murray State 76 0
Youngstown State 72 - Toledo 74 0.535 Youngstown State 93 - Toledo 87 -8

GAMES OF 12-15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 73 - Arkansas State 75 0.57 Alabama Birmingham 89 - Arkansas State 98 7
Arkansas Little Rock 72 - Illinois Chicago 70 0.56 Arkansas Little Rock 69 - Illinois Chicago 77 10
Binghamton 86 - Unranked 58 Binghamton 85 - Unranked 60
Boston College 75 - Stonehill 64 0.761 Boston College 73 - Stonehill 69 7
Cal State Bakersfield 89 - Unranked 56 Cal State Bakersfield 96 - Unranked 47
Cal State Fullerton 72 - Denver 68 0.607 Cal State Fullerton 74 - Denver 59 -11
Chattanooga 80 - Alabama AM 61 0.894 Chattanooga 85 - Alabama AM 63 -3
Colgate 65 - Vermont 67 0.553 Colgate 65 - Vermont 60 -7
East Texas AM 62 - South Alabama 74 0.861 East Texas AM 72 - South Alabama 81 -3
Eastern Michigan 68 - IPFW 75 0.734 Eastern Michigan 76 - IPFW 99 16
Hofstra 74 - Temple 70 0.644 Hofstra 42 - Temple 60 22
Idaho 66 - UC San Diego 80 0.842 Idaho 56 - UC San Diego 80 10
Illinois State 73 - Saint Louis 74 0.529 Illinois State 81 - Saint Louis 77 -5
Incarnate Word 87 - Unranked 57 Incarnate Word 93 - Unranked 69
Iowa 91 - New Orleans 62 0.984 Iowa 104 - New Orleans 57 -18
Iowa State 91 - Omaha 58 0.985 Iowa State 83 - Omaha 51 1
Kent State 77 - Mercyhurst 54 0.953 Kent State 82 - Mercyhurst 57 -2
Loyola Ill 69 - San Francisco 72 0.601 Loyola Ill 66 - San Francisco 76 7
Mercer 80 - Chicago State 65 0.871 Mercer 75 - Chicago State 63 3
Miami 79 - Presbyterian 68 0.768 Miami 94 - Presbyterian 75 -8
Miami OH 92 - Unranked 54 Miami OH 112 - Unranked 70
Milwaukee 73 - Akron 77 0.655 Milwaukee 100 - Akron 81 -23
Morehead State 87 - Unranked 58 Morehead State 86 - Unranked 63
Morgan State 67 - Campbell 75 0.72 Morgan State 86 - Campbell 76 -18
North Dakota 74 - Texas San Antonio 76 0.569 North Dakota 85 - Texas San Antonio 95 8
North Dakota State 76 - Western Michigan 67 0.715 North Dakota State 98 - Western Michigan 62 -27
Northern Kentucky 66 - Norfolk State 71 0.657 Northern Kentucky 71 - Norfolk State 62 -14
Northwestern 77 - Georgia Tech 66 0.783 Northwestern 71 - Georgia Tech 60 0
Old Dominion 64 - Northeastern 77 0.797 Old Dominion 71 - Northeastern 75 -9
Oregon 84 - Stephen F Austin 55 0.983 Oregon 79 - Stephen F Austin 61 11
Rhode Island 77 - Central Connecticut State 62 0.816 Rhode Island 77 - Central Connecticut State 69 7
Saint Thomas 94 - Unranked 54 Saint Thomas 100 - Unranked 61
SE Missouri State 86 - Unranked 58 SE Missouri State 93 - Unranked 56
SIU Edwardsville 88 - Unranked 55 SIU Edwardsville 100 - Unranked 52
Southern California 76 - Montana State 68 0.695 Southern California 89 - Montana State 63 -18
Southern Indiana 88 - Unranked 57 Southern Indiana 91 - Unranked 56
Tennessee Martin 84 - Unranked 58 Tennessee Martin 123 - Unranked 56
Texas 93 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 57 0.993 Texas 121 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 57 -28
UC Riverside 93 - Unranked 54 UC Riverside 78 - Unranked 55
Virginia Tech 79 - Navy 62 0.906 Virginia Tech 80 - Navy 72 9


Number of DI Games: 179
Number Correct: 137 = 76.5%
Expected Number Correct: 131.482 = 73.4%
Average Error: 9.08
Average Signed Error: -0.46