Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Basketball Predictions

ARCHIVED PREVIOUS YEAR PREDICTIONS

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CURRENT WEEK PREDICTIONS

Note: I'm going with a home court advantage of 3 points this year.

Note, as usual, that for bracket style tournaments since they were not scheduled when the season started, they will not appear in the single game list below. If you want to make your own predictions, just compare team rating points on the main rating page and add 3 points to the home team, if there is one.

GAMES OF 11-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 90 - Unranked 54
Air Force 72 - North Alabama 67 0.617
Alabama 87 - UNC Asheville 65 0.899
Alabama Birmingham 72 - Vermont 68 0.63
Appalachian State 73 - Miami OH 62 0.772
Arizona 88 - Canisius 61 0.942
Arkansas Little Rock 87 - Unranked 57
Arkansas State 67 - Akron 71 0.629
Army 69 - Albany 68 0.531
Austin Peay 85 - Unranked 56
Belmont 94 - Unranked 53
Boston 68 - Northeastern 66 0.546
Boston College 80 - The Citadel 64 0.851
Bradley 80 - SE Missouri State 59 0.911
Bryant 90 - Unranked 56
Butler 74 - Missouri State 69 0.64
Cal Baptist 76 - Incarnate Word 58 0.877
California 73 - Cal State Bakersfield 64 0.728
Campbell 85 - Unranked 56
Central Florida 72 - Texas AM 73 0.547
Charlotte 75 - Presbyterian 58 0.892
Cincinnati 86 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 57 0.965
Clemson 84 - Charleston Southern 57 0.939
Coastal Carolina 74 - Western Michigan 68 0.661
Colorado 81 - Eastern Washington 68 0.814
Colorado State 81 - North Dakota 62 0.889
Cornell 92 - Unranked 56
Dartmouth 83 - Unranked 57
Davidson 92 - Unranked 51
Dayton 83 - Saint Francis Penn 55 0.961
Delaware 73 - Bucknell 64 0.737
DePaul 78 - Southern Indiana 67 0.789
Detroit 85 - Unranked 58
Drexel 88 - Unranked 52
Duke 84 - Maine 54 0.955
Duquesne 76 - Lipscomb 67 0.728
East Carolina 89 - Unranked 54
East Tennessee State 88 - Unranked 53
Florida State 76 - Northern Kentucky 67 0.737
Furman 93 - Unranked 52
George Mason 74 - North Carolina Central 61 0.819
George Washington 75 - Mercyhurst 67 0.691
Georgia 80 - Tennessee Tech 63 0.883
Georgia Southern 73 - Northern Illinois 66 0.673
Georgia State 72 - Ball State 70 0.558
Gonzaga 80 - Baylor 76 0.606
Grambling State 84 - Unranked 53
Grand Canyon 76 - Cal State Fullerton 63 0.843
Hampton 83 - Unranked 61
Harvard 68 - Marist 64 0.606
Hofstra 92 - Unranked 51
Houston 85 - Jackson State 51 0.98
Houston Christian 82 - Unranked 64
Idaho 81 - Unranked 59
Illinois 88 - Eastern Illinois 56 0.98
Illinois Chicago 86 - Unranked 57
Illinois State 74 - Tennessee Martin 68 0.658
Indiana State 73 - Florida Atlantic 76 0.591
Iowa 88 - Texas AM Commerce 61 0.951
Iowa State 88 - Mississippi Valley State 49 0.989
IPFW 87 - Unranked 55
IUPUI 79 - Unranked 62
Jacksonville 83 - Unranked 53
Jacksonville State 86 - Unranked 54
James Madison 74 - Ohio 70 0.618
Kansas 87 - Howard 60 0.948
Kentucky 85 - Wright State 69 0.847
La Salle 73 - American 65 0.72
Lamar 82 - Unranked 57
Long Beach State 91 - Unranked 57
Longwood 87 - Unranked 53
Louisiana Tech 92 - Unranked 51
Louisville 70 - Morehead State 69 0.532
Loyola Ill 80 - Chicago State 59 0.921
Loyola Marymount 90 - Unranked 54
Loyola MD 70 - Columbia 69 0.513
Marquette 84 - Stony Brook 62 0.929
Marshall 92 - Unranked 55
Maryland 82 - Manhattan 58 0.931
Massachusetts 76 - New Hampshire 65 0.746
Memphis 80 - Missouri 71 0.745
Miami 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.917
Michigan 78 - Cleveland State 66 0.801
Michigan State 82 - Monmouth 61 0.906
Middle Tennessee 88 - Unranked 54
Milwaukee 89 - Unranked 57
Mississippi 83 - LIU Brooklyn 60 0.942
Mississippi State 80 - West Georgia 57 0.907
Montana 88 - Unranked 53
Morgan State 84 - Unranked 59
Mt St Marys 84 - Unranked 55
Murray State 89 - Unranked 53
NC State 83 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.928
Nebraska 85 - UT Rio Grande Valley 65 0.902
Nevada 75 - Sam Houston State 67 0.725
Nevada Las Vegas 81 - Alabama State 57 0.946
New Mexico 80 - Nicholls State 66 0.835
New Mexico State 88 - Unranked 54
Niagara 86 - Unranked 55
NJ Tech 65 - Pennsylvania 74 0.733
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 53
North Carolina 87 - Elon 58 0.96
North Carolina AT 83 - Unranked 59
North Dakota State 87 - Unranked 54
Northern Arizona 85 - Unranked 58
Northern Colorado 89 - Unranked 57
Northern Iowa 92 - Unranked 53
Northwestern 81 - Lehigh 61 0.918
Northwestern State 83 - Unranked 58
Oakland 89 - Unranked 55
Oklahoma 85 - Lindenwood 57 0.955
Oklahoma State 81 - Green Bay 59 0.938
Old Dominion 73 - Buffalo 68 0.623
Omaha 84 - Unranked 59
Oregon 80 - UC Riverside 64 0.864
Oregon State 77 - Utah Tech 67 0.745
Penn State 82 - Binghamton 61 0.92
Pittsburgh 78 - Radford 62 0.866
Prairie View 82 - Unranked 58
Princeton 73 - Iona 68 0.647
Providence 83 - Central Connecticut State 58 0.952
Purdue 84 - Texas AM CC 57 0.957
Queens 87 - Unranked 58
Rhode Island 72 - Fairfield 68 0.597
Saint Bonaventure 78 - Cal State Northridge 62 0.857
Saint Johns 81 - Fordham 67 0.844
Saint Josephs 74 - Navy 65 0.751
Saint Marys 74 - Towson 58 0.86
Saint Thomas 86 - Unranked 54
Samford 93 - Unranked 55
San Jose State 73 - Western Illinois 67 0.654
Santa Clara 76 - Saint Louis 75 0.529
Seton Hall 76 - Saint Peters 60 0.859
Siena 66 - Brown 70 0.622
SIU Edwardsville 84 - Unranked 57
South Alabama 74 - Central Michigan 63 0.766
South Carolina 79 - North Florida 65 0.811
South Carolina State 82 - Unranked 60
South Dakota 69 - Southern 68 0.529
South Dakota State 72 - Mcneese State 65 0.708
South Florida 70 - Florida 78 0.718
Southeast Louisiana 83 - Unranked 57
Southern California 79 - Chattanooga 67 0.775
Southern Illinois 68 - College of Charleston 72 0.616
Southern Methodist 75 - Tarleton State 67 0.704
Southern Miss 72 - Bowling Green 68 0.607
Southern Utah 91 - Unranked 56
Stanford 83 - Denver 64 0.877
Stephen F Austin 91 - Unranked 53
Stetson 88 - Unranked 56
Stonehill 80 - Unranked 59
Syracuse 82 - Le Moyne 62 0.868
Temple 77 - Sacred Heart 64 0.82
Tennessee 81 - Gardner Webb 57 0.934
Tennessee State 84 - Unranked 57
Texas 77 - Ohio State 73 0.603
Texas Arlington 90 - Unranked 55
Texas Christian 85 - Florida AM 56 0.964
Texas El Paso 89 - Unranked 53
Texas San Antonio 90 - Unranked 59
Texas State 74 - Eastern Michigan 61 0.828
Troy 71 - Toledo 74 0.575
Tulane 95 - Unranked 56
Tulsa 89 - Unranked 56
UC Irvine 92 - Unranked 51
UC Santa Barbara 90 - Unranked 53
UCLA 80 - Rider 61 0.908
UL Lafayette 71 - Kent State 69 0.533
UL Monroe 84 - Unranked 57
UMass Lowell 90 - Unranked 54
UMBC 88 - Unranked 57
UMKC 83 - Unranked 54
UNC Greensboro 72 - Florida Gulf Coast 62 0.745
UNC Wilmington 90 - Unranked 53
Utah 81 - Alcorn State 62 0.884
Utah Valley 91 - Unranked 52
Valparaiso 63 - Liberty 75 0.787
Vanderbilt 78 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59 0.907
Villanova 81 - Lafayette 56 0.946
Virginia Commonwealth 78 - Bellarmine 57 0.931
Virginia Military Institute 84 - Unranked 62
Virginia Tech 84 - Delaware State 57 0.949
Wake Forest 86 - Coppin State 58 0.952
Washington State 81 - Portland State 61 0.897
Weber State 88 - Unranked 53
West Virginia 83 - Robert Morris 63 0.904
Western Carolina 89 - Unranked 55
Western Kentucky 74 - Wichita State 73 0.511
William and Mary 83 - Unranked 58
Winthrop 90 - Unranked 55
Wisconsin 86 - Holy Cross 56 0.963
Wofford 89 - Unranked 54
Wyoming 92 - Unranked 55
Xavier 83 - Texas Southern 62 0.926
Yale 75 - Quinnipiac 65 0.743
Youngstown State 90 - Unranked 54

GAMES OF 11-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 79 - Idaho State 62 0.864
Brigham Young 88 - Central Arkansas 59 0.958
Colgate 92 - Unranked 51
Kansas State 86 - New Orleans 60 0.948
Kennesaw St 87 - Unranked 57
North Texas 78 - Evansville 57 0.925
Pacific 86 - Unranked 59
Rice 76 - Florida International 71 0.641
Sacramento State 82 - Unranked 55
San Francisco 81 - Cal Poly 57 0.944
Texas Tech 85 - Bethune Cookman 58 0.949
Washington 79 - UC Davis 69 0.77

GAMES OF 11-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 90 - Unranked 51
Arkansas 82 - Lipscomb 66 0.854
Arkansas Pine Bluff 81 - Unranked 61
Auburn 77 - Vermont 65 0.791
Boise State 80 - Oakland 64 0.862
Cleveland State 88 - Unranked 54
Connecticut 88 - Sacred Heart 55 0.975
Creighton 90 - UT Rio Grande Valley 60 0.96
Eastern Illinois 81 - Unranked 58
Eastern Washington 73 - Seattle 71 0.547
Georgetown 78 - Lehigh 68 0.765
Georgia Tech 78 - West Georgia 63 0.825
High Point 77 - Coppin State 62 0.839
Indiana 82 - SIU Edwardsville 60 0.927
Le Moyne 70 - Cal State Northridge 68 0.539
Louisiana State 81 - UL Monroe 63 0.902
Maine 82 - Unranked 55
Minnesota 77 - Oral Roberts 70 0.683
Morehead State 87 - Unranked 50
Morgan State 69 - Mercyhurst 68 0.508
New Hampshire 85 - Unranked 55
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 53
Notre Dame 79 - Stonehill 59 0.912
Pepperdine 75 - Western Illinois 68 0.68
Portland 89 - Unranked 58
Presbyterian 82 - Unranked 58
Richmond 93 - Unranked 50
Rutgers 75 - Wagner 57 0.877
San Diego 72 - Rider 71 0.514
San Diego State 82 - UC San Diego 59 0.936
South Carolina Upstate 84 - Unranked 57
South Dakota 72 - Texas AM Commerce 66 0.638
Texas Southern 85 - Unranked 55
Utah State 84 - Alcorn State 60 0.937
Villanova 84 - Columbia 58 0.955
Virginia 77 - Campbell 56 0.908
Wright State 93 - Unranked 56

GAMES OF 11-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Jacksonville State 68 0.525
Alabama AM 80 - Unranked 57
Alabama Birmingham 79 - Southern Miss 64 0.84
Binghamton 84 - Unranked 57
Cal State Bakersfield 84 - Unranked 55
California 77 - Cal Poly 61 0.854
Central Michigan 66 - Stony Brook 70 0.589
Delaware 73 - Robert Morris 64 0.741
DePaul 77 - Prairie View 66 0.806
Fairleigh Dickinson 86 - Unranked 60
Florida 81 - Jacksonville 60 0.914
Idaho 64 - UC Davis 74 0.769
Indiana State 96 - Unranked 53
Iowa 85 - Southern 63 0.921
Lindenwood 80 - Unranked 59
Loyola Ill 79 - Detroit 61 0.885
Mcneese State 85 - Unranked 55
Mercer 87 - Unranked 53
Michigan State 81 - Niagara 60 0.926
Mississippi Valley State 76 - Unranked 63
North Alabama 86 - Unranked 57
North Dakota State 70 - Illinois State 67 0.584
North Florida 74 - Charleston Southern 65 0.722
Northern Illinois 84 - Unranked 58
Northern Iowa 77 - Milwaukee 68 0.744
Pennsylvania 74 - Maryland Eastern Shore 62 0.806
Portland State 86 - Unranked 57
Quinnipiac 89 - Unranked 55
Saint Marys 76 - Chattanooga 60 0.846
Southern California 82 - Idaho State 59 0.923
Southern Indiana 68 - Bucknell 69 0.51
Southern Methodist 81 - Florida AM 58 0.94
Stetson 74 - Omaha 66 0.72
Tennessee Martin 87 - Unranked 59
Tennessee Tech 82 - Unranked 58
The Citadel 85 - Unranked 58
UL Lafayette 91 - Unranked 53
UNC Asheville 89 - Unranked 54
Utah 86 - Central Arkansas 61 0.925
Wake Forest 85 - North Carolina AT 61 0.937
Western Michigan 83 - Unranked 59
Wisconsin 79 - Montana State 63 0.879

GAMES OF 11-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 90 - Unranked 50
Alabama 88 - Arkansas State 65 0.915
Ball State 88 - Unranked 56
Belmont 75 - Furman 72 0.564
Bowling Green 67 - Davidson 75 0.726
Brigham Young 80 - UC Riverside 65 0.856
Bryant 74 - Siena 65 0.735
Buffalo 88 - Unranked 58
Butler 78 - Austin Peay 62 0.866
Central Florida 78 - IPFW 64 0.836
Cincinnati 75 - Morehead State 63 0.81
Clemson 85 - Saint Francis Penn 56 0.948
College of Charleston 75 - South Florida 70 0.633
Colorado 83 - Northern Colorado 64 0.89
Colorado State 81 - Tennessee State 61 0.908
Cornell 76 - Samford 75 0.515
Denver 85 - Unranked 60
Duke 85 - Army 55 0.957
East Tennessee State 71 - Eastern Kentucky 68 0.585
Eastern Michigan 83 - Unranked 59
Florida Atlantic 97 - Unranked 50
Fresno State 72 - Sacramento State 62 0.775
George Washington 79 - Hampton 67 0.808
Green Bay 64 - Saint Thomas 69 0.617
Hofstra 72 - Iona 68 0.619
Illinois 87 - SIU Edwardsville 59 0.959
Illinois Chicago 64 - Yale 75 0.773
Incarnate Word 79 - Unranked 60
Kansas 78 - North Carolina 75 0.593
Kent State 90 - Unranked 51
Loyola Marymount 69 - UC Irvine 72 0.569
Marquette 80 - George Mason 66 0.834
Maryland 79 - Mt St Marys 59 0.902
Mississippi 75 - Grambling State 62 0.838
Mississippi State 79 - Georgia State 62 0.875
Missouri 80 - Howard 66 0.844
Navy 67 - Harvard 66 0.504
NC State 84 - Presbyterian 59 0.949
Nicholls State 67 - South Alabama 70 0.589
North Carolina Central 66 - Gardner Webb 68 0.546
Northern Arizona 85 - Unranked 58
Oral Roberts 90 - Unranked 55
Oregon 80 - Montana 64 0.855
Oregon State 72 - Weber State 68 0.608
Penn State 82 - UMBC 65 0.881
Pittsburgh 77 - Murray State 65 0.76
Princeton 71 - Duquesne 70 0.531
Purdue 81 - Northern Kentucky 59 0.929
Queens 70 - Western Carolina 73 0.579
Radford 71 - William and Mary 63 0.733
Rhode Island 78 - Holy Cross 64 0.841
Saint Josephs 78 - Central Connecticut State 63 0.868
San Diego 72 - Boston 68 0.606
San Jose State 74 - Pacific 70 0.608
Santa Clara 74 - Arizona State 75 0.519
South Carolina 82 - South Carolina State 60 0.919
South Dakota State 76 - Long Beach State 70 0.68
Southern Illinois 89 - Unranked 51
Stanford 78 - Cal State Fullerton 67 0.778
Texas 92 - Houston Christian 56 0.987
Texas AM 83 - Texas AM Commerce 57 0.945
Texas AM CC 85 - Unranked 54
Texas Christian 81 - Florida Gulf Coast 62 0.888
Texas State 88 - Unranked 52
Texas Tech 84 - Northwestern State 58 0.947
Towson 88 - Unranked 51
Tulane 80 - UL Monroe 66 0.836
UCLA 77 - New Mexico 70 0.685
UMass Lowell 69 - Saint Peters 65 0.61
UMKC 83 - Unranked 54
UNC Wilmington 73 - Georgia Southern 66 0.694
Valparaiso 87 - Unranked 58
Villanova 83 - NJ Tech 55 0.958
Virginia Commonwealth 75 - Boston College 68 0.694
Virginia Tech 82 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.911
Washington State 73 - Bradley 68 0.625
West Virginia 80 - Massachusetts 72 0.702
Xavier 89 - IUPUI 56 0.965

GAMES OF 11-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 72 - Middle Tennessee 68 0.603
Albany 86 - Unranked 58
Arizona 86 - Old Dominion 62 0.931
Baylor 81 - Arkansas 74 0.694
Bellarmine 73 - Virginia Military Institute 66 0.712
Cal Baptist 72 - Kennesaw St 67 0.658
Canisius 65 - Saint Bonaventure 75 0.736
Chicago State 64 - Youngstown State 76 0.783
Columbia 72 - Delaware State 66 0.693
Connecticut 85 - New Hampshire 55 0.958
Coppin State 63 - Rider 74 0.783
Dartmouth 69 - Sacred Heart 67 0.55
Dayton 73 - Northwestern 69 0.614
Drexel 68 - Colgate 70 0.572
East Carolina 75 - Coastal Carolina 67 0.712
Elon 84 - Unranked 57
Evansville 85 - Unranked 58
Georgetown 75 - Fairfield 70 0.645
Grand Canyon 76 - Western Kentucky 69 0.709
Hawaii 88 - Unranked 52
High Point 73 - Jackson State 66 0.698
Houston 76 - Auburn 70 0.646
Kansas State 79 - Cleveland State 65 0.841
Kentucky 86 - Bucknell 60 0.943
La Salle 73 - Lafayette 64 0.748
Le Moyne 83 - Unranked 57
Lipscomb 71 - Wofford 70 0.529
LIU Brooklyn 82 - Unranked 61
Longwood 74 - Morgan State 63 0.771
Louisville 64 - Tennessee 81 0.858
Loyola MD 82 - Unranked 58
Marshall 73 - Toledo 76 0.566
Maryland Eastern Shore 80 - Unranked 57
Mercyhurst 83 - Unranked 57
Merrimack 58 - Vermont 68 0.787
Miami OH 69 - Wright State 75 0.626
Minnesota 81 - Omaha 64 0.883
Nebraska 83 - Bethune Cookman 62 0.903
Nevada 79 - Washington 73 0.659
Nevada Las Vegas 73 - Memphis 77 0.599
New Orleans 64 - Troy 76 0.801
Nicholls State 86 - Unranked 55
Norfolk State 67 - James Madison 72 0.629
Ohio 73 - UNC Asheville 68 0.644
Portland 70 - UC Santa Barbara 74 0.634
Providence 84 - Stonehill 56 0.954
Rice 71 - Florida State 80 0.722
Richmond 74 - Marist 60 0.82
Saint Johns 83 - Quinnipiac 68 0.841
San Francisco 71 - Boise State 74 0.575
Seattle 67 - Liberty 68 0.507
Seton Hall 78 - Fordham 63 0.844
Southern Utah 78 - Florida International 70 0.7
Tarleton State 67 - Sam Houston State 69 0.552
Texas Arlington 69 - Louisiana Tech 73 0.616
Texas San Antonio 75 - North Dakota 70 0.617
Tulsa 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 0.855
UC San Diego 74 - Pepperdine 73 0.52
Unranked 59 - Alcorn State 83
Utah State 77 - Charlotte 65 0.803
Utah Tech 70 - New Mexico State 72 0.554
Utah Valley 72 - Texas El Paso 67 0.634
Wagner 82 - Unranked 53
Wichita State 74 - Montana State 67 0.725
Winthrop 75 - Arkansas Little Rock 68 0.689

GAMES OF 11-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 82 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.925
American 65 - Harvard 68 0.59
Brown 71 - Maine 62 0.741
Cal Poly 80 - Unranked 58
Campbell 72 - Saint Francis Penn 63 0.741
Creighton 89 - Fairleigh Dickinson 60 0.958
Detroit 68 - Niagara 70 0.568
Drake 78 - Stephen F Austin 66 0.762
Georgia 78 - Texas Southern 65 0.839
Georgia Tech 79 - North Florida 67 0.795
Gonzaga 84 - Arizona State 68 0.835
Hawaii 73 - San Jose State 66 0.676
Indiana 83 - Eastern Illinois 57 0.955
Louisiana State 82 - Alabama State 58 0.956
Loyola Ill 92 - Unranked 50
Miami 82 - Binghamton 62 0.9
Montana 88 - Unranked 53
Northeastern 64 - Princeton 74 0.757
Northern Iowa 72 - UC Irvine 71 0.501
Oklahoma State 78 - Saint Thomas 63 0.848
Pacific 85 - Unranked 60
Robert Morris 84 - Unranked 57
Saint Louis 95 - Unranked 54
South Dakota 86 - Unranked 58
Temple 74 - Monmouth 67 0.672
UT Rio Grande Valley 86 - Unranked 61
Vanderbilt 81 - SE Missouri State 63 0.904
Wake Forest 77 - Michigan 76 0.508
Wisconsin 76 - Appalachian State 64 0.82
Wyoming 77 - Tennessee State 65 0.794


Number of DI Games: 307
Expected Number Correct: 237.924 = 77.4%

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