Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Basketball Predictions

ARCHIVED PREVIOUS YEAR PREDICTIONS

Click Here to expand

CURRENT WEEK PREDICTIONS

Note: I'm going with a home court advantage of 3 points this year.

Note, as usual, that for bracket style tournaments since they were not scheduled when the season started, they will not appear in the single game list below. If you want to make your own predictions, just compare team rating points on the main rating page and add 3 points to the home team, if there is one.

GAMES OF 11-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 96 - Unranked 53
Alabama State 87 - Unranked 59
Arkansas 84 - Pacific 59 0.948
Auburn 90 - North Alabama 62 0.958
Cal State Fullerton 68 - Idaho State 70 0.604
Delaware 74 - Bryant 70 0.62
Florida International 72 - Howard 73 0.532
George Washington 85 - NJ Tech 55 0.974
Georgia State 89 - Unranked 58
High Point 76 - American 61 0.857
Iowa State 92 - IUPUI 55 0.974
Louisiana Tech 99 - Unranked 48
Maryland Eastern Shore 81 - Unranked 62
Mcneese State 64 - North Texas 72 0.767
Michigan 82 - Miami OH 62 0.862
NC State 79 - Colgate 65 0.837
North Florida 83 - UNC Asheville 69 0.794
Pittsburgh 90 - Virginia Military Institute 55 0.979
Radford 92 - Unranked 55
San Diego State 69 - Gonzaga 82 0.744
South Alabama 91 - Unranked 54
South Dakota State 95 - Unranked 54
Southern Illinois 76 - North Dakota State 72 0.638
Southern Methodist 87 - Prairie View 60 0.962
Texas Tech 94 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 52 0.991
UL Monroe 68 - Southeast Louisiana 71 0.614
UMKC 87 - Unranked 55
Utah State 87 - Montana 64 0.899
Washington State 81 - Northern Colorado 72 0.759
Wichita State 87 - Monmouth 64 0.944
Wisconsin 87 - UT Rio Grande Valley 62 0.937

GAMES OF 11-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 72 - Queens 68 0.614
Belmont 80 - Oral Roberts 66 0.875
Binghamton 62 - Longwood 75 0.889
Boston 65 - Wagner 62 0.603
Boston College 77 - Loyola MD 61 0.888
Bowling Green 76 - Niagara 69 0.721
Central Florida 86 - Tennessee Tech 55 0.963
Charlotte 74 - Gardner Webb 69 0.653
Chicago State 65 - Eastern Kentucky 78 0.838
Connecticut 87 - Texas AM Commerce 55 0.993
DePaul 81 - Eastern Illinois 66 0.814
Duquesne 76 - Milwaukee 68 0.714
Fairfield 61 - Drexel 71 0.753
Florida 96 - Florida AM 57 0.997
Florida State 74 - Hofstra 73 0.513
Fordham 91 - Unranked 55
Georgia 85 - Alabama AM 57 0.963
Green Bay 69 - SIU Edwardsville 75 0.687
Idaho 89 - Unranked 60
Iowa 84 - Rider 63 0.946
Kansas 86 - UNC Wilmington 66 0.94
Kansas State 87 - Mississippi Valley State 52 0.963
Kentucky 91 - Lipscomb 63 0.978
Louisiana State 88 - Charleston Southern 57 0.991
Louisville 82 - Bellarmine 59 0.904
Loyola Ill 78 - Southern Utah 68 0.773
Marist 77 - Dartmouth 63 0.81
Marquette 76 - Purdue 77 0.512
Maryland 85 - Canisius 55 0.971
Mercyhurst 84 - Unranked 55
Michigan State 82 - Samford 71 0.821
Minnesota 77 - Cleveland State 63 0.866
Missouri State 80 - Texas Arlington 75 0.649
Navy 70 - Quinnipiac 75 0.663
Northern Arizona 88 - Unranked 56
Northern Iowa 77 - Western Illinois 63 0.886
Northern Kentucky 61 - Cincinnati 80 0.919
Northwestern 82 - Montana State 65 0.874
Northwestern State 88 - Unranked 58
Notre Dame 77 - North Dakota 66 0.763
Ohio State 88 - Evansville 58 0.967
Old Dominion 84 - Unranked 60
Providence 81 - Delaware State 55 0.959
Santa Clara 74 - UC Riverside 75 0.512
South Carolina Upstate 90 - Unranked 61
Tennessee State 88 - Unranked 60
Texas Christian 86 - Alcorn State 59 0.96
Tulane 78 - Bethune Cookman 66 0.837
UL Lafayette 73 - Rice 74 0.534
UMBC 73 - Hampton 67 0.674
Vermont 76 - Buffalo 63 0.806
Villanova 79 - Pennsylvania 62 0.887
Wake Forest 78 - Western Carolina 62 0.817
West Georgia 61 - Troy 77 0.95
Western Michigan 72 - South Dakota 78 0.658

GAMES OF 11-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 83 - Cal Poly 65 0.889
Army 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.616
Ball State 75 - Detroit 69 0.71
Cal Baptist 73 - Northern Colorado 76 0.613
Central Michigan 91 - Unranked 54
Dayton 79 - New Mexico State 64 0.874
Fresno State 77 - Prairie View 62 0.874
Furman 96 - Unranked 51
George Mason 82 - Coppin State 56 0.946
Georgetown 74 - Mt St Marys 71 0.585
Gonzaga 96 - Long Beach State 60 0.952
Grand Canyon 80 - UC Davis 72 0.777
Holy Cross 88 - Unranked 58
Illinois 81 - Alabama 80 0.529
Kennesaw St 75 - Abilene Christian 71 0.599
Lehigh 86 - Unranked 60
LIU Brooklyn 70 - Columbia 77 0.708
Morehead State 66 - Austin Peay 74 0.691
Murray State 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 57 0.956
Nevada Las Vegas 82 - Pepperdine 70 0.831
New Hampshire 81 - Unranked 61
Nicholls State 67 - Towson 71 0.623
North Carolina AT 77 - Morgan State 68 0.79
Northern Illinois 69 - Elon 72 0.593
Penn State 85 - IPFW 69 0.871
Rhode Island 79 - Lafayette 61 0.887
Richmond 69 - Maine 64 0.663
Rutgers 77 - Merrimack 63 0.885
Saint Bonaventure 95 - Unranked 50
Saint Francis Penn 86 - Unranked 58
Saint Marys 102 - Unranked 47
Saint Peters 88 - Unranked 54
South Dakota State 80 - Southern Miss 70 0.768
Southern California 84 - San Jose State 59 0.952
Stanford 81 - Norfolk State 64 0.887
Stony Brook 71 - Yale 79 0.674
Texas AM 87 - Southern 57 0.978
Texas Christian 86 - Alcorn State 59 0.96
The Citadel 66 - College of Charleston 82 0.844
Tulsa 78 - Arkansas Little Rock 73 0.669
UC Santa Barbara 80 - Texas El Paso 65 0.772
UCLA 77 - Idaho State 59 0.916
UMass Lowell 94 - Unranked 57
Virginia Tech 76 - Jacksonville 62 0.884
West Virginia 80 - Iona 67 0.859
Western Kentucky 81 - Jackson State 64 0.9
Xavier 82 - Siena 60 0.908

GAMES OF 11-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bucknell 82 - NJ Tech 58 0.958
California 80 - Air Force 60 0.898
Central Arkansas 72 - SE Missouri State 71 0.52
Chattanooga 92 - Unranked 56
Clemson 81 - Radford 67 0.861
Cornell 77 - Robert Morris 66 0.848
Indiana 83 - UNC Greensboro 63 0.926
Jacksonville State 67 - East Carolina 71 0.621
James Madison 75 - Illinois Chicago 76 0.523
Kent State 81 - Niagara 63 0.924
Miami 76 - Drake 75 0.539
Michigan 86 - Tarleton State 59 0.896
Mississippi 83 - Oral Roberts 60 0.95
New Mexico 82 - Grambling State 66 0.851
North Dakota State 93 - Unranked 57
North Florida 98 - Unranked 56
Oakland 76 - Eastern Michigan 60 0.855
Ohio 71 - Middle Tennessee 76 0.621
Oklahoma 83 - Texas AM Commerce 61 0.965
Oklahoma State 78 - Florida Atlantic 82 0.624
Oregon State 71 - Oregon 77 0.67
Sacred Heart 67 - Central Connecticut State 73 0.699
Saint Johns 76 - Baylor 81 0.613
Sam Houston State 97 - Unranked 54
San Francisco 76 - Memphis 75 0.515
South Carolina 83 - Mercer 61 0.914
South Florida 76 - Portland 69 0.653
Stephen F Austin 72 - Presbyterian 65 0.73
Stonehill 65 - Bryant 75 0.747
Texas 84 - Syracuse 76 0.713
Texas AM CC 75 - Tennessee Martin 70 0.672
Texas State 64 - Bradley 74 0.752
Texas Tech 84 - Saint Josephs 65 0.882
Toledo 81 - Stetson 65 0.864
UC San Diego 69 - La Salle 76 0.69
Valparaiso 75 - Lindenwood 65 0.812
Vanderbilt 71 - Nevada 80 0.744
Virginia 62 - Tennessee 78 0.865
Virginia Commonwealth 70 - Seton Hall 64 0.653
Washington State 82 - Eastern Washington 70 0.837
Western Illinois 85 - Unranked 58
Wright State 71 - Princeton 77 0.683
Youngstown State 80 - Monmouth 72 0.736

GAMES OF 11-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 80 - Lamar 69 0.842
Alabama AM 70 - South Carolina State 69 0.538
Arizona 76 - Duke 78 0.537
Arkansas 83 - Arkansas Little Rock 60 0.941
Arkansas State 95 - Unranked 53
Buffalo 73 - Morgan State 69 0.625
Butler 74 - Merrimack 60 0.871
Colorado State 76 - UC Riverside 69 0.696
Creighton 78 - Nebraska 71 0.706
Davidson 81 - Virginia Military Institute 63 0.919
East Tennessee State 75 - South Carolina Upstate 70 0.666
Evansville 73 - Green Bay 75 0.548
Fairleigh Dickinson 89 - Unranked 62
Florida 87 - Southern Illinois 65 0.959
Florida AM 84 - Unranked 64
Florida Gulf Coast 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 72 0.663
Fordham 68 - Drexel 70 0.546
Georgia State 73 - North Carolina Central 69 0.648
Grand Canyon 79 - Norfolk State 68 0.778
Harvard 65 - Colgate 71 0.684
Houston 82 - Hofstra 64 0.91
Houston Christian 64 - Rice 77 0.884
Indiana State 83 - Chicago State 62 0.885
IUPUI 66 - Coastal Carolina 75 0.741
Kansas State 76 - George Washington 72 0.619
Kentucky 94 - Jackson State 57 0.988
Longwood 69 - Alabama Birmingham 72 0.607
Louisville 77 - Winthrop 68 0.711
Loyola Marymount 71 - North Dakota 70 0.519
Manhattan 72 - Army 71 0.507
Mcneese State 70 - Illinois State 69 0.539
Milwaukee 73 - Portland State 80 0.714
Missouri 84 - Pacific 63 0.889
Murray State 76 - Utah Valley 69 0.662
NC State 84 - William and Mary 66 0.875
Northeastern 78 - Florida International 67 0.8
Northern Arizona 74 - Incarnate Word 67 0.698
Northwestern 83 - Pepperdine 66 0.874
Northwestern State 74 - UL Monroe 66 0.761
Notre Dame 79 - Elon 67 0.817
Ohio State 83 - Campbell 59 0.944
Omaha 74 - Alabama State 71 0.603
Pittsburgh 79 - Louisiana State 71 0.713
San Diego 72 - Southern Utah 76 0.641
Seattle 94 - Unranked 54
Southern Indiana 70 - South Dakota 77 0.704
Southern Methodist 73 - Mississippi State 80 0.72
Stephen F Austin 75 - Monmouth 66 0.737
Temple 72 - Florida State 75 0.619
Tennessee Martin 72 - Le Moyne 66 0.66
Tulane 85 - New Orleans 61 0.947
UCLA 80 - Cal State Fullerton 57 0.955
UL Lafayette 62 - Liberty 78 0.846
UMKC 68 - American 64 0.624
UNC Asheville 76 - SE Missouri State 70 0.627
Unranked 58 - Albany 86
Utah 89 - Utah Tech 61 0.963
Utah State 80 - Iowa 77 0.582
Washington 85 - Alcorn State 58 0.961
Weber State 63 - UC Irvine 78 0.885
Wichita State 82 - Saint Louis 71 0.807
Wisconsin 75 - Central Florida 73 0.547
Wofford 65 - Saint Thomas 76 0.81
Wyoming 76 - Southeast Louisiana 67 0.746
Youngstown State 78 - Presbyterian 70 0.729

GAMES OF 11-23

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 78 - Omaha 68 0.816
Alabama AM 66 - Coastal Carolina 70 0.638
Bellarmine 69 - Bowling Green 74 0.672
Brigham Young 95 - Mississippi Valley State 50 0.989
Bucknell 74 - Rider 71 0.602
Cal Baptist 75 - Eastern Washington 74 0.534
Canisius 67 - Brown 72 0.656
Charleston Southern 60 - Furman 82 0.955
Charlotte 79 - LIU Brooklyn 63 0.895
Cleveland State 69 - Kent State 76 0.702
Columbia 78 - Stony Brook 72 0.637
DePaul 79 - Northern Illinois 63 0.831
Florida Gulf Coast 67 - Northeastern 73 0.691
Florida International 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 77 0.777
George Mason 95 - Unranked 52
Georgetown 76 - Saint Francis Penn 66 0.8
Georgia Southern 78 - West Georgia 64 0.922
Georgia Tech 68 - Cincinnati 80 0.816
Hawaii 71 - North Carolina 84 0.853
Illinois 95 - Maryland Eastern Shore 53 0.997
Lamar 74 - Alabama State 72 0.569
Long Beach State 73 - Fresno State 71 0.57
Loyola Ill 81 - Tulsa 70 0.829
Marist 76 - New Hampshire 63 0.818
Marquette 80 - Georgia 71 0.755
Milwaukee 73 - Wofford 70 0.594
Mt St Marys 76 - Delaware State 63 0.845
Nevada Las Vegas 78 - New Mexico State 69 0.764
North Alabama 79 - UL Monroe 64 0.891
Northern Colorado 86 - Prairie View 61 0.953
Northern Kentucky 88 - Unranked 54
Presbyterian 74 - Monmouth 73 0.546
Purdue 88 - Marshall 61 0.955
Saint Marys 84 - Cal Poly 64 0.92
Saint Thomas 77 - Portland State 76 0.523
Santa Clara 71 - Stanford 82 0.8
SIU Edwardsville 91 - Unranked 53
South Carolina State 74 - IUPUI 70 0.611
South Carolina Upstate 73 - Queens 75 0.554
Southern Utah 79 - Idaho 70 0.778
Stephen F Austin 72 - Youngstown State 71 0.505
Temple 76 - Massachusetts 73 0.601
Texas AM CC 78 - Le Moyne 68 0.8
UMass Lowell 77 - Quinnipiac 72 0.627
UMBC 71 - Boston 70 0.533
UMKC 69 - Albany 67 0.59
Unranked 57 - American 83
Vermont 68 - Delaware 69 0.515
Wagner 82 - Unranked 54
Wake Forest 82 - Detroit 61 0.925
Yale 78 - Fairfield 63 0.831

GAMES OF 11-24

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 66 - Mercyhurst 64 0.573
Akron 78 - Alabama State 65 0.857
American 67 - Albany 68 0.545
Appalachian State 73 - William and Mary 70 0.573
California 81 - Sacramento State 59 0.943
Central Arkansas 69 - UNC Asheville 74 0.624
Central Connecticut State 75 - Binghamton 64 0.823
East Tennessee State 72 - Queens 69 0.592
Evansville 70 - Campbell 74 0.62
Florida Gulf Coast 72 - Florida International 68 0.652
Hampton 54 - Boise State 87 0.961
Howard 71 - Boston 67 0.618
Kennesaw St 71 - Rutgers 81 0.771
Lafayette 84 - Unranked 57
Lipscomb 79 - Jackson State 67 0.827
Maine 69 - Holy Cross 67 0.567
Massachusetts 72 - Florida State 78 0.753
Milwaukee 69 - Saint Thomas 77 0.746
Missouri 90 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 0.965
Missouri State 72 - High Point 74 0.551
Montana 76 - Denver 70 0.658
Montana State 77 - Southern Miss 73 0.616
Morgan State 62 - Towson 76 0.867
New Mexico 87 - Texas Southern 63 0.949
Northeastern 73 - Cal State Bakersfield 72 0.527
Northwestern State 69 - North Alabama 76 0.714
Old Dominion 61 - Boston College 78 0.884
Omaha 75 - Lamar 74 0.54
Rhode Island 75 - College of Charleston 77 0.552
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Bryant 66 0.817
Saint Johns 80 - Georgia 74 0.692
San Diego 76 - Idaho 71 0.66
South Dakota State 75 - Duquesne 69 0.663
Southern California 79 - Grambling State 64 0.858
UC Riverside 81 - Alcorn State 60 0.935
Utah Tech 68 - Cal State Northridge 79 0.824
Valparaiso 71 - Eastern Illinois 72 0.523
Vermont 70 - Fairfield 62 0.699
Villanova 65 - Maryland 77 0.804
Wofford 69 - Portland State 79 0.781
Yale 75 - Delaware 69 0.673


Number of DI Games: 290
Expected Number Correct: 222.038 = 76.5%

PREVIOUS WEEK PREDICTIONS

GAMES OF 11-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 90 - Unranked 55 Abilene Christian 107 - Unranked 74
Air Force 72 - North Alabama 68 0.594 Air Force 57 - North Alabama 73 20
Alabama 88 - UNC Asheville 67 0.892 Alabama 110 - UNC Asheville 54 -35
Alabama Birmingham 72 - Vermont 68 0.606 Alabama Birmingham 62 - Vermont 67 9
Appalachian State 75 - Miami OH 62 0.807 Appalachian State 63 - Miami OH 77 27
Arizona 89 - Canisius 60 0.941 Arizona 93 - Canisius 64 0
Arkansas Little Rock 88 - Unranked 56 Arkansas Little Rock 84 - Unranked 64
Arkansas State 69 - Akron 71 0.552 Arkansas State 80 - Akron 75 -7
Army 68 - Albany 70 0.563 Army 67 - Albany 59 -10
Austin Peay 86 - Unranked 56 Austin Peay 95 - Unranked 75
Belmont 95 - Unranked 54 Belmont 93 - Unranked 70
Boston 68 - Northeastern 67 0.52 Boston 72 - Northeastern 80 9
Boston College 81 - The Citadel 64 0.876 Boston College 69 - The Citadel 60 8
Bradley 82 - SE Missouri State 57 0.941 Bradley 88 - SE Missouri State 60 -3
Bryant 91 - Unranked 56 Bryant 105 - Unranked 63
Butler 76 - Missouri State 69 0.68 Butler 72 - Missouri State 65 0
Cal Baptist 76 - Incarnate Word 59 0.883 Cal Baptist 83 - Incarnate Word 78 12
California 75 - Cal State Bakersfield 65 0.751 California 86 - Cal State Bakersfield 73 -3
Campbell 86 - Unranked 57 Campbell 96 - Unranked 49
Central Florida 73 - Texas AM 74 0.547 Central Florida 64 - Texas AM 61 -4
Charlotte 75 - Presbyterian 60 0.885 Charlotte 88 - Presbyterian 79 6
Cincinnati 87 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 59 0.965 Cincinnati 109 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54 -27
Clemson 84 - Charleston Southern 57 0.946 Clemson 91 - Charleston Southern 64 0
Coastal Carolina 73 - Western Michigan 69 0.609 Coastal Carolina 60 - Western Michigan 56 0
Colorado 83 - Eastern Washington 68 0.839 Colorado 76 - Eastern Washington 56 -5
Colorado State 81 - North Dakota 61 0.889 Colorado State 82 - North Dakota 56 -6
Cornell 94 - Unranked 55 Cornell 93 - Unranked 52
Dartmouth 82 - Unranked 57 Dartmouth 129 - Unranked 47
Davidson 92 - Unranked 52 Davidson 88 - Unranked 47
Dayton 85 - Saint Francis Penn 53 0.98 Dayton 87 - Saint Francis Penn 57 2
Delaware 72 - Bucknell 64 0.724 Delaware 73 - Bucknell 85 20
DePaul 78 - Southern Indiana 68 0.77 DePaul 80 - Southern Indiana 78 8
Detroit 83 - Unranked 60 Detroit 91 - Unranked 52
Drake 98 - Unranked 50 Drake 93 - Unranked 41
Drexel 89 - Unranked 52 Drexel 95 - Unranked 43
Duke 84 - Maine 55 0.957 Duke 96 - Maine 62 -5
Duquesne 77 - Lipscomb 66 0.764 Duquesne 72 - Lipscomb 77 16
East Carolina 89 - Unranked 54 East Carolina 97 - Unranked 70
East Tennessee State 88 - Unranked 53 East Tennessee State 72 - Unranked 51
Eastern Kentucky 89 - Unranked 56 Eastern Kentucky 98 - Unranked 69
Florida State 78 - Northern Kentucky 67 0.773 Florida State 74 - Northern Kentucky 62 -1
Furman 93 - Unranked 54 Furman 104 - Unranked 46
George Mason 75 - North Carolina Central 62 0.83 George Mason 75 - North Carolina Central 58 -4
George Washington 76 - Mercyhurst 68 0.693 George Washington 76 - Mercyhurst 59 -9
Georgia 82 - Tennessee Tech 61 0.916 Georgia 83 - Tennessee Tech 78 16
Georgia Southern 74 - Northern Illinois 68 0.668 Georgia Southern 80 - Northern Illinois 65 -9
Georgia State 73 - Ball State 69 0.588 Georgia State 71 - Ball State 66 -1
Gonzaga 80 - Baylor 76 0.595 Gonzaga 101 - Baylor 63 -34
Grambling State 84 - Unranked 53 Grambling State 92 - Unranked 42
Grand Canyon 78 - Cal State Fullerton 62 0.899 Grand Canyon 89 - Cal State Fullerton 79 6
Hampton 83 - Unranked 61 Hampton 110 - Unranked 53
Harvard 67 - Marist 64 0.573 Harvard 79 - Marist 66 -10
Hofstra 92 - Unranked 51 Hofstra 89 - Unranked 62
Houston 86 - Jackson State 51 0.982 Houston 97 - Jackson State 40 -22
Houston Christian 82 - Unranked 65 Houston Christian 86 - Unranked 59
Idaho 82 - Unranked 59 Idaho 94 - Unranked 60
Illinois 89 - Eastern Illinois 57 0.988 Illinois 112 - Eastern Illinois 67 -13
Illinois Chicago 88 - Unranked 57 Illinois Chicago 91 - Unranked 43
Illinois State 74 - Tennessee Martin 69 0.638 Illinois State 65 - Tennessee Martin 67 7
Indiana State 76 - Florida Atlantic 77 0.527 Indiana State 64 - Florida Atlantic 97 32
Iowa 89 - Texas AM Commerce 62 0.958 Iowa 89 - Texas AM Commerce 67 5
Iowa State 90 - Mississippi Valley State 47 0.995 Iowa State 83 - Mississippi Valley State 44 4
IPFW 89 - Unranked 55 IPFW 99 - Unranked 47
IUPUI 79 - Unranked 63 IUPUI 100 - Unranked 44
Jacksonville 83 - Unranked 54 Jacksonville 78 - Unranked 65
Jacksonville State 86 - Unranked 55 Jacksonville State 112 - Unranked 48
James Madison 76 - Ohio 68 0.698 James Madison 88 - Ohio 78 -2
Kansas 87 - Howard 61 0.937 Kansas 87 - Howard 57 -4
Kentucky 88 - Wright State 71 0.853 Kentucky 103 - Wright State 62 -24
La Salle 74 - American 65 0.733 La Salle 65 - American 52 -4
Lamar 84 - Unranked 57 Lamar 113 - Unranked 42
Liberty 75 - Valparaiso 65 0.757 Liberty 83 - Valparaiso 63 -10
Long Beach State 92 - Unranked 57 Long Beach State 93 - Unranked 48
Longwood 88 - Unranked 53 Longwood 79 - Unranked 68
Louisiana Tech 92 - Unranked 51 Louisiana Tech 77 - Unranked 50
Louisville 70 - Morehead State 71 0.525 Louisville 93 - Morehead State 45 -49
Loyola Ill 80 - Chicago State 59 0.914 Loyola Ill 79 - Chicago State 72 14
Loyola Marymount 90 - Unranked 55 Loyola Marymount 99 - Unranked 55
Loyola MD 68 - Columbia 71 0.621 Loyola MD 78 - Columbia 81 0
Marquette 84 - Stony Brook 63 0.92 Marquette 102 - Stony Brook 62 -19
Marshall 90 - Unranked 56 Marshall 90 - Unranked 57
Maryland 83 - Manhattan 58 0.932 Maryland 79 - Manhattan 49 -5
Massachusetts 77 - New Hampshire 65 0.781 Massachusetts 103 - New Hampshire 74 -17
Memphis 81 - Missouri 71 0.769 Memphis 83 - Missouri 75 2
Miami 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.913 Miami 113 - Fairleigh Dickinson 72 -20
Michigan 77 - Cleveland State 68 0.736 Michigan 101 - Cleveland State 53 -39
Michigan State 82 - Monmouth 61 0.903 Michigan State 81 - Monmouth 57 -3
Middle Tennessee 87 - Unranked 55 Middle Tennessee 97 - Unranked 51
Milwaukee 90 - Unranked 57 Milwaukee 118 - Unranked 62
Mississippi 84 - LIU Brooklyn 59 0.943 Mississippi 90 - LIU Brooklyn 60 -5
Mississippi State 81 - West Georgia 57 0.91 Mississippi State 95 - West Georgia 60 -11
Montana 89 - Unranked 54 Montana 92 - Unranked 61
Morgan State 84 - Unranked 60 Morgan State 89 - Unranked 76
Mt St Marys 86 - Unranked 56 Mt St Marys 98 - Unranked 62
Murray State 89 - Unranked 53 Murray State 113 - Unranked 37
NC State 84 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.947 NC State 97 - South Carolina Upstate 66 -8
Nebraska 88 - UT Rio Grande Valley 63 0.932 Nebraska 87 - UT Rio Grande Valley 67 5
Nevada 77 - Sam Houston State 66 0.77 Nevada 91 - Sam Houston State 75 -5
Nevada Las Vegas 81 - Alabama State 57 0.941 Nevada Las Vegas 93 - Alabama State 79 10
New Mexico 82 - Nicholls State 65 0.876 New Mexico 91 - Nicholls State 84 10
New Mexico State 87 - Unranked 56 New Mexico State 93 - Unranked 57
Niagara 86 - Unranked 56 Niagara 100 - Unranked 65
NJ Tech 66 - Pennsylvania 74 0.721 NJ Tech 57 - Pennsylvania 58 -7
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 53 Norfolk State 96 - Unranked 41
North Carolina 89 - Elon 58 0.975 North Carolina 90 - Elon 76 17
North Carolina AT 82 - Unranked 60 North Carolina AT 107 - Unranked 55
North Dakota State 87 - Unranked 56 North Dakota State 96 - Unranked 59
Northern Arizona 85 - Unranked 58 Northern Arizona 100 - Unranked 49
Northern Colorado 90 - Unranked 57 Northern Colorado 75 - Unranked 55
Northern Iowa 93 - Unranked 53 Northern Iowa 96 - Unranked 54
Northwestern 83 - Lehigh 61 0.926 Northwestern 90 - Lehigh 46 -22
Northwestern State 83 - Unranked 59 Northwestern State 96 - Unranked 55
Oakland 91 - Unranked 54 Oakland 75 - Unranked 52
Oklahoma 86 - Lindenwood 56 0.965 Oklahoma 93 - Lindenwood 60 -3
Oklahoma State 79 - Green Bay 62 0.883 Oklahoma State 89 - Green Bay 76 4
Old Dominion 74 - Buffalo 68 0.676 Old Dominion 82 - Buffalo 83 7
Omaha 85 - Unranked 59 Omaha 85 - Unranked 69
Oregon 81 - UC Riverside 64 0.879 Oregon 91 - UC Riverside 76 2
Oregon State 78 - Utah Tech 68 0.758 Oregon State 80 - Utah Tech 57 -13
Pacific 85 - Unranked 61 Pacific 92 - Unranked 65
Penn State 82 - Binghamton 63 0.907 Penn State 108 - Binghamton 66 -23
Pittsburgh 80 - Radford 61 0.892 Pittsburgh 96 - Radford 56 -21
Prairie View 82 - Unranked 59 Prairie View 111 - Unranked 90
Princeton 75 - Iona 66 0.751 Princeton 81 - Iona 80 8
Providence 81 - Central Connecticut State 59 0.945 Providence 59 - Central Connecticut State 55 18
Purdue 85 - Texas AM CC 57 0.963 Purdue 90 - Texas AM CC 73 11
Queens 88 - Unranked 59 Queens 90 - Unranked 39
Rhode Island 72 - Fairfield 71 0.537 Rhode Island 96 - Fairfield 58 -37
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Cal State Northridge 64 0.836 Saint Bonaventure 70 - Cal State Northridge 56 1
Saint Johns 83 - Fordham 67 0.868 Saint Johns 92 - Fordham 60 -16
Saint Josephs 77 - Navy 63 0.857 Saint Josephs 70 - Navy 63 7
Saint Louis 75 - Santa Clara 78 0.586 Saint Louis 78 - Santa Clara 85 4
Saint Marys 74 - Towson 57 0.852 Saint Marys 76 - Towson 69 10
Saint Thomas 86 - Unranked 53 Saint Thomas 96 - Unranked 71
Samford 95 - Unranked 54 Samford 100 - Unranked 58
San Jose State 71 - Western Illinois 67 0.616 San Jose State 55 - Western Illinois 59 8
Seton Hall 77 - Saint Peters 60 0.864 Seton Hall 57 - Saint Peters 53 13
Siena 64 - Brown 72 0.748 Siena 72 - Brown 71 -9
SIU Edwardsville 84 - Unranked 57 SIU Edwardsville 95 - Unranked 42
South Alabama 73 - Central Michigan 65 0.701 South Alabama 70 - Central Michigan 74 12
South Carolina 80 - North Florida 64 0.851 South Carolina 71 - North Florida 74 19
South Carolina State 83 - Unranked 59 South Carolina State 137 - Unranked 55
South Dakota 68 - Southern 69 0.527 South Dakota 93 - Southern 79 -15
South Dakota State 71 - Mcneese State 67 0.617 South Dakota State 80 - Mcneese State 73 -3
South Florida 72 - Florida 79 0.689 South Florida 83 - Florida 98 8
Southeast Louisiana 83 - Unranked 57 Southeast Louisiana 91 - Unranked 53
Southern California 78 - Chattanooga 68 0.725 Southern California 77 - Chattanooga 51 -16
Southern Illinois 70 - College of Charleston 74 0.625 Southern Illinois 80 - College of Charleston 90 6
Southern Methodist 75 - Tarleton State 69 0.668 Southern Methodist 96 - Tarleton State 62 -28
Southern Miss 72 - Bowling Green 68 0.585 Southern Miss 77 - Bowling Green 68 -5
Southern Utah 91 - Unranked 58 Southern Utah 96 - Unranked 68
Stanford 84 - Denver 67 0.849 Stanford 85 - Denver 62 -6
Stephen F Austin 91 - Unranked 54 Stephen F Austin 85 - Unranked 51
Stetson 88 - Unranked 56 Stetson 94 - Unranked 75
Stonehill 80 - Unranked 60 Stonehill 81 - Unranked 62
Syracuse 83 - Le Moyne 63 0.871 Syracuse 86 - Le Moyne 82 16
Temple 76 - Sacred Heart 65 0.79 Temple 81 - Sacred Heart 70 0
Tennessee 83 - Gardner Webb 58 0.942 Tennessee 80 - Gardner Webb 64 9
Tennessee State 85 - Unranked 57 Tennessee State 96 - Unranked 66
Texas 77 - Ohio State 74 0.582 Texas 72 - Ohio State 80 11
Texas Arlington 92 - Unranked 55 Texas Arlington 90 - Unranked 55
Texas Christian 86 - Florida AM 57 0.972 Texas Christian 105 - Florida AM 59 -17
Texas El Paso 89 - Unranked 53 Texas El Paso 102 - Unranked 55
Texas San Antonio 90 - Unranked 60 Texas San Antonio 103 - Unranked 77
Texas State 74 - Eastern Michigan 61 0.827 Texas State 64 - Eastern Michigan 44 -7
Troy 73 - Toledo 74 0.509 Troy 84 - Toledo 74 -11
Tulane 95 - Unranked 57 Tulane 76 - Unranked 42
Tulsa 90 - Unranked 57 Tulsa 82 - Unranked 68
UC Irvine 93 - Unranked 51 UC Irvine 82 - Unranked 52
UC Santa Barbara 90 - Unranked 55 UC Santa Barbara 96 - Unranked 47
UCLA 78 - Rider 62 0.858 UCLA 85 - Rider 50 -19
UL Lafayette 71 - Kent State 69 0.567 UL Lafayette 66 - Kent State 70 6
UL Monroe 85 - Unranked 58 UL Monroe 111 - Unranked 61
UMass Lowell 91 - Unranked 54 UMass Lowell 115 - Unranked 59
UMBC 89 - Unranked 59 UMBC 95 - Unranked 66
UMKC 85 - Unranked 54 UMKC 91 - Unranked 68
UNC Greensboro 72 - Florida Gulf Coast 62 0.731 UNC Greensboro 73 - Florida Gulf Coast 64 1
UNC Wilmington 91 - Unranked 53 UNC Wilmington 143 - Unranked 91
Utah 83 - Alcorn State 63 0.889 Utah 100 - Alcorn State 59 -21
Utah Valley 90 - Unranked 53 Utah Valley 92 - Unranked 57
Vanderbilt 78 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59 0.911 Vanderbilt 102 - Maryland Eastern Shore 63 -20
Villanova 81 - Lafayette 56 0.945 Villanova 75 - Lafayette 63 13
Virginia Commonwealth 80 - Bellarmine 57 0.946 Virginia Commonwealth 84 - Bellarmine 65 4
Virginia Military Institute 83 - Unranked 64 Virginia Military Institute 103 - Unranked 54
Virginia Tech 84 - Delaware State 59 0.935 Virginia Tech 83 - Delaware State 60 2
Wake Forest 87 - Coppin State 55 0.964 Wake Forest 64 - Coppin State 49 17
Washington State 81 - Portland State 60 0.906 Washington State 100 - Portland State 92 13
Weber State 89 - Unranked 54 Weber State 118 - Unranked 35
West Virginia 82 - Robert Morris 65 0.875 West Virginia 87 - Robert Morris 59 -11
Western Carolina 90 - Unranked 54 Western Carolina 100 - Unranked 61
Western Kentucky 75 - Wichita State 73 0.559 Western Kentucky 84 - Wichita State 91 9
William and Mary 83 - Unranked 58 William and Mary 84 - Unranked 36
Winthrop 90 - Unranked 56 Winthrop 125 - Unranked 65
Wisconsin 88 - Holy Cross 56 0.965 Wisconsin 85 - Holy Cross 61 8
Wofford 89 - Unranked 55 Wofford 112 - Unranked 58
Wyoming 93 - Unranked 56 Wyoming 108 - Unranked 85
Xavier 82 - Texas Southern 63 0.916 Xavier 78 - Texas Southern 69 10
Yale 75 - Quinnipiac 66 0.748 Yale 88 - Quinnipiac 62 -17

GAMES OF 11-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 78 - Idaho State 63 0.83 Arizona State 55 - Idaho State 48 8
Brigham Young 90 - Central Arkansas 59 0.961 Brigham Young 88 - Central Arkansas 50 -7
Colgate 91 - Unranked 51 Colgate 95 - Unranked 62
Kansas State 87 - New Orleans 60 0.951 Kansas State 89 - New Orleans 65 3
Kennesaw St 88 - Unranked 59 Kennesaw St 110 - Unranked 61
North Texas 77 - Evansville 59 0.892 North Texas 80 - Evansville 63 1
Rice 76 - Florida International 71 0.641 Rice 77 - Florida International 70 -2
Sacramento State 82 - Unranked 56 Sacramento State 106 - Unranked 44
San Francisco 82 - Cal Poly 57 0.954 San Francisco 86 - Cal Poly 78 17
Texas Tech 85 - Bethune Cookman 59 0.948 Texas Tech 94 - Bethune Cookman 61 -7
Washington 79 - UC Davis 69 0.774 Washington 79 - UC Davis 73 4

GAMES OF 11-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 92 - Unranked 50 Appalachian State 108 - Unranked 54
Arkansas 82 - Lipscomb 69 0.8 Arkansas 76 - Lipscomb 60 -3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 83 - Unranked 62 Arkansas Pine Bluff 99 - Unranked 57
Auburn 77 - Vermont 64 0.823 Auburn 94 - Vermont 43 -38
Boise State 79 - Oakland 65 0.822 Boise State 87 - Oakland 43 -30
Cleveland State 88 - Unranked 54 Cleveland State 91 - Unranked 53
Connecticut 90 - Sacred Heart 54 0.978 Connecticut 92 - Sacred Heart 56 0
Creighton 91 - UT Rio Grande Valley 59 0.965 Creighton 99 - UT Rio Grande Valley 86 19
Eastern Illinois 82 - Unranked 58 Eastern Illinois 97 - Unranked 61
Eastern Washington 71 - Seattle 72 0.504 Eastern Washington 93 - Seattle 86 -8
Georgetown 78 - Lehigh 70 0.743 Georgetown 85 - Lehigh 77 0
Georgia Tech 79 - West Georgia 63 0.823 Georgia Tech 85 - West Georgia 62 -7
High Point 80 - Coppin State 60 0.922 High Point 93 - Coppin State 51 -22
Indiana 82 - SIU Edwardsville 61 0.922 Indiana 80 - SIU Edwardsville 61 2
Le Moyne 69 - Cal State Northridge 70 0.507 Le Moyne 75 - Cal State Northridge 97 21
Louisiana State 82 - UL Monroe 63 0.901 Louisiana State 95 - UL Monroe 60 -16
Maine 83 - Unranked 54 Maine 98 - Unranked 47
Minnesota 79 - Oral Roberts 67 0.807 Minnesota 80 - Oral Roberts 57 -11
Morehead State 88 - Unranked 50 Morehead State 89 - Unranked 48
Morgan State 68 - Mercyhurst 69 0.521 Morgan State 73 - Mercyhurst 78 4
New Hampshire 86 - Unranked 56 New Hampshire 99 - Unranked 69
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 53 Norfolk State 104 - Unranked 60
Notre Dame 80 - Stonehill 57 0.929 Notre Dame 89 - Stonehill 60 -6
Pepperdine 73 - Western Illinois 67 0.64 Pepperdine 77 - Western Illinois 64 -7
Portland 88 - Unranked 59 Portland 83 - Unranked 70
Presbyterian 84 - Unranked 58 Presbyterian 120 - Unranked 45
Richmond 94 - Unranked 50 Richmond 101 - Unranked 68
Rutgers 74 - Wagner 57 0.861 Rutgers 75 - Wagner 52 -6
San Diego 73 - Rider 72 0.507 San Diego 67 - Rider 68 2
San Diego State 81 - UC San Diego 61 0.905 San Diego State 63 - UC San Diego 58 15
South Carolina Upstate 85 - Unranked 58 South Carolina Upstate 103 - Unranked 70
South Dakota 72 - Texas AM Commerce 67 0.622 South Dakota 91 - Texas AM Commerce 83 -3
Texas Southern 85 - Unranked 55 Texas Southern 100 - Unranked 66
Utah State 85 - Alcorn State 62 0.937 Utah State 101 - Alcorn State 46 -32
Villanova 83 - Columbia 60 0.943 Villanova 80 - Columbia 90 33
Virginia 78 - Campbell 56 0.9 Virginia 65 - Campbell 56 13
Wright State 94 - Unranked 57 Wright State 89 - Unranked 60

GAMES OF 11-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Jacksonville State 68 0.522 Air Force 73 - Jacksonville State 67 -5
Alabama AM 82 - Unranked 57 Alabama AM 121 - Unranked 78
Alabama Birmingham 79 - Southern Miss 65 0.825 Alabama Birmingham 98 - Southern Miss 84 0
Binghamton 85 - Unranked 57 Binghamton 82 - Unranked 63
Cal State Bakersfield 84 - Unranked 55 Cal State Bakersfield 122 - Unranked 53
California 80 - Cal Poly 61 0.896 California 91 - Cal Poly 73 1
Central Michigan 66 - Stony Brook 70 0.6 Central Michigan 72 - Stony Brook 73 -3
Delaware 74 - Robert Morris 64 0.758 Delaware 81 - Robert Morris 77 6
DePaul 77 - Prairie View 67 0.79 DePaul 92 - Prairie View 59 -23
Fairleigh Dickinson 86 - Unranked 60 Fairleigh Dickinson 112 - Unranked 72
Florida 83 - Jacksonville 61 0.927 Florida 81 - Jacksonville 60 1
Idaho 63 - UC Davis 73 0.768 Idaho 75 - UC Davis 79 -6
Indiana State 99 - Unranked 52 Indiana State 93 - Unranked 48
Iowa 85 - Southern 63 0.918 Iowa 89 - Southern 74 7
Lindenwood 80 - Unranked 60 Lindenwood 98 - Unranked 30
Loyola Ill 81 - Detroit 59 0.934 Loyola Ill 87 - Detroit 65 0
Mcneese State 88 - Unranked 52 Mcneese State 111 - Unranked 57
Mercer 87 - Unranked 54 Mercer 125 - Unranked 54
Michigan State 82 - Niagara 59 0.93 Michigan State 96 - Niagara 60 -13
Mississippi Valley State 75 - Unranked 63 Mississippi Valley State 66 - Unranked 49
North Alabama 86 - Unranked 57 North Alabama 94 - Unranked 58
North Dakota State 68 - Illinois State 69 0.506 North Dakota State 68 - Illinois State 77 8
North Florida 73 - Charleston Southern 65 0.702 North Florida 90 - Charleston Southern 66 -16
North Texas 92 - Unranked 47 North Texas 80 - Unranked 38
Northern Illinois 85 - Unranked 59 Northern Illinois 105 - Unranked 37
Northern Iowa 78 - Milwaukee 68 0.746 Northern Iowa 87 - Milwaukee 68 -9
Pennsylvania 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 62 0.829 Pennsylvania 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 84 12
Portland State 86 - Unranked 57 Portland State 131 - Unranked 84
Quinnipiac 91 - Unranked 55 Quinnipiac 71 - Unranked 47
Saint Marys 77 - Chattanooga 61 0.831 Saint Marys 86 - Chattanooga 74 4
Southern California 81 - Idaho State 61 0.9 Southern California 75 - Idaho State 69 14
Southern Indiana 67 - Bucknell 69 0.566 Southern Indiana 69 - Bucknell 75 4
Southern Methodist 82 - Florida AM 58 0.941 Southern Methodist 102 - Florida AM 73 -5
Stetson 74 - Omaha 66 0.706 Stetson 76 - Omaha 79 11
Tennessee Martin 89 - Unranked 59 Tennessee Martin 114 - Unranked 61
Tennessee Tech 82 - Unranked 59 Tennessee Tech 89 - Unranked 74
The Citadel 85 - Unranked 58 The Citadel 86 - Unranked 56
UL Lafayette 91 - Unranked 54 UL Lafayette 82 - Unranked 65
Utah 87 - Central Arkansas 60 0.932 Utah 98 - Central Arkansas 63 -8
Wake Forest 86 - North Carolina AT 60 0.952 Wake Forest 80 - North Carolina AT 64 10
Western Michigan 84 - Unranked 59 Western Michigan 86 - Unranked 46
Wisconsin 81 - Montana State 63 0.891 Wisconsin 79 - Montana State 67 6

GAMES OF 11-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 91 - Unranked 51 Akron 88 - Unranked 57
Alabama 88 - Arkansas State 68 0.892 Alabama 88 - Arkansas State 79 11
Ball State 87 - Unranked 57 Ball State 87 - Unranked 60
Belmont 76 - Furman 72 0.604 Belmont 74 - Furman 76 6
Boston College 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 74 0.632 Boston College 55 - Virginia Commonwealth 80 21
Bowling Green 67 - Davidson 74 0.697 Bowling Green 85 - Davidson 91 -1
Brigham Young 83 - UC Riverside 65 0.874 Brigham Young 86 - UC Riverside 80 12
Bryant 76 - Siena 63 0.824 Bryant 88 - Siena 90 15
Buffalo 86 - Unranked 60 Buffalo 87 - Unranked 78
Butler 80 - Austin Peay 64 0.873 Butler 66 - Austin Peay 68 18
Central Florida 78 - IPFW 65 0.816 Central Florida 75 - IPFW 68 6
Cincinnati 75 - Morehead State 64 0.799 Cincinnati 83 - Morehead State 56 -16
Clemson 87 - Saint Francis Penn 55 0.963 Clemson 88 - Saint Francis Penn 62 6
College of Charleston 75 - South Florida 72 0.585 College of Charleston 86 - South Florida 71 -12
Colorado 84 - Northern Colorado 65 0.905 Colorado 90 - Northern Colorado 88 17
Colorado State 81 - Tennessee State 60 0.921 Colorado State 87 - Tennessee State 79 13
Cornell 75 - Samford 76 0.508 Cornell 88 - Samford 86 -3
Denver 87 - Unranked 61 Denver 97 - Unranked 80
Duke 86 - Army 53 0.964 Duke 100 - Army 58 -9
East Tennessee State 72 - Eastern Kentucky 68 0.611 East Tennessee State 78 - Eastern Kentucky 82 8
Eastern Michigan 83 - Unranked 59 Eastern Michigan 83 - Unranked 58
Florida Atlantic 98 - Unranked 51 Florida Atlantic 99 - Unranked 49
Fresno State 72 - Sacramento State 62 0.762 Fresno State 64 - Sacramento State 57 3
George Washington 80 - Hampton 67 0.815 George Washington 82 - Hampton 54 -15
Green Bay 64 - Saint Thomas 68 0.577 Green Bay 76 - Saint Thomas 90 10
Hawaii 89 - Unranked 53 Hawaii 96 - Unranked 61
Hofstra 73 - Iona 66 0.687 Hofstra 90 - Iona 76 -7
Illinois 89 - SIU Edwardsville 60 0.965 Illinois 90 - SIU Edwardsville 58 -3
Illinois Chicago 65 - Yale 75 0.771 Illinois Chicago 91 - Yale 79 -22
Incarnate Word 80 - Unranked 62 Incarnate Word 97 - Unranked 53
Kansas 76 - North Carolina 77 0.502 Kansas 92 - North Carolina 89 -4
Kent State 90 - Unranked 53 Kent State 98 - Unranked 53
Loyola Marymount 68 - UC Irvine 73 0.631 Loyola Marymount 51 - UC Irvine 66 10
Marquette 80 - George Mason 66 0.836 Marquette 82 - George Mason 63 -5
Maryland 79 - Mt St Marys 61 0.887 Maryland 86 - Mt St Marys 52 -16
Mississippi 76 - Grambling State 62 0.839 Mississippi 66 - Grambling State 64 12
Mississippi State 81 - Georgia State 62 0.885 Mississippi State 101 - Georgia State 66 -16
Missouri 79 - Howard 67 0.817 Missouri 77 - Howard 62 -3
Monmouth 69 - Temple 73 0.616 Monmouth 74 - Temple 103 25
Navy 66 - Harvard 68 0.57 Navy 85 - Harvard 80 -7
NC State 85 - Presbyterian 60 0.951 NC State 81 - Presbyterian 72 16
Nicholls State 69 - South Alabama 70 0.542 Nicholls State 64 - South Alabama 70 5
North Carolina Central 68 - Gardner Webb 69 0.551 North Carolina Central 82 - Gardner Webb 88 5
Northern Arizona 85 - Unranked 58 Northern Arizona 115 - Unranked 67
Oral Roberts 89 - Unranked 56 Oral Roberts 105 - Unranked 49
Oregon 80 - Montana 65 0.845 Oregon 79 - Montana 48 -16
Oregon State 73 - Weber State 68 0.602 Oregon State 76 - Weber State 48 -23
Penn State 84 - UMBC 67 0.886 Penn State 103 - UMBC 54 -32
Pittsburgh 79 - Murray State 64 0.795 Pittsburgh 83 - Murray State 68 0
Princeton 72 - Duquesne 70 0.561 Princeton 75 - Duquesne 68 -5
Purdue 84 - Northern Kentucky 59 0.947 Purdue 72 - Northern Kentucky 50 3
Queens 69 - Western Carolina 75 0.644 Queens 67 - Western Carolina 54 -19
Radford 72 - William and Mary 64 0.733 Radford 89 - William and Mary 77 -4
Rhode Island 79 - Holy Cross 65 0.841 Rhode Island 91 - Holy Cross 77 0
Saint Josephs 78 - Central Connecticut State 63 0.876 Saint Josephs 67 - Central Connecticut State 73 21
San Diego 73 - Boston 68 0.627 San Diego 74 - Boston 60 -9
San Jose State 76 - Pacific 69 0.684 San Jose State 67 - Pacific 80 20
Santa Clara 75 - Arizona State 74 0.515 Santa Clara 74 - Arizona State 81 8
South Carolina 82 - South Carolina State 59 0.928 South Carolina 86 - South Carolina State 64 1
South Dakota State 76 - Long Beach State 70 0.656 South Dakota State 80 - Long Beach State 79 5
Southern Illinois 91 - Unranked 52 Southern Illinois 86 - Unranked 64
Stanford 78 - Cal State Fullerton 67 0.786 Stanford 80 - Cal State Fullerton 53 -16
Texas 93 - Houston Christian 56 0.987 Texas 90 - Houston Christian 59 6
Texas AM 84 - Texas AM Commerce 57 0.952 Texas AM 87 - Texas AM Commerce 55 -5
Texas AM CC 86 - Unranked 54 Texas AM CC 87 - Unranked 36
Texas Christian 81 - Florida Gulf Coast 62 0.899 Texas Christian 67 - Florida Gulf Coast 51 3
Texas State 88 - Unranked 52 Texas State 102 - Unranked 62
Texas Tech 86 - Northwestern State 58 0.954 Texas Tech 86 - Northwestern State 65 7
Towson 88 - Unranked 50 Towson 89 - Unranked 34
Tulane 80 - UL Monroe 67 0.828 Tulane 80 - UL Monroe 64 -3
UCLA 74 - New Mexico 73 0.522 UCLA 64 - New Mexico 72 9
UMass Lowell 69 - Saint Peters 65 0.623 UMass Lowell 81 - Saint Peters 74 -3
UMKC 85 - Unranked 54 UMKC 124 - Unranked 36
UNC Wilmington 76 - Georgia Southern 67 0.726 UNC Wilmington 92 - Georgia Southern 84 1
Valparaiso 87 - Unranked 58 Valparaiso 111 - Unranked 46
Villanova 83 - NJ Tech 55 0.955 Villanova 91 - NJ Tech 54 -9
Virginia Tech 83 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.918 Virginia Tech 93 - South Carolina Upstate 74 3
Washington State 74 - Bradley 68 0.632 Washington State 91 - Bradley 74 -11
West Virginia 78 - Massachusetts 75 0.578 West Virginia 75 - Massachusetts 69 -3
Xavier 89 - IUPUI 57 0.963 Xavier 94 - IUPUI 80 18

GAMES OF 11-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 72 - Middle Tennessee 67 0.624 Abilene Christian 56 - Middle Tennessee 79 28
Albany 88 - Unranked 59 Albany 89 - Unranked 69
Arizona 89 - Old Dominion 61 0.945 Arizona 102 - Old Dominion 44 -30
Baylor 83 - Arkansas 74 0.742 Baylor 72 - Arkansas 67 4
Bellarmine 74 - Virginia Military Institute 66 0.717 Bellarmine 71 - Virginia Military Institute 76 13
Cal Baptist 74 - Kennesaw St 67 0.683 Cal Baptist 88 - Kennesaw St 84 3
Canisius 65 - Saint Bonaventure 75 0.752 Canisius 78 - Saint Bonaventure 87 -1
Chicago State 65 - Youngstown State 75 0.756 Chicago State 60 - Youngstown State 80 10
Columbia 73 - Delaware State 66 0.681 Columbia 83 - Delaware State 62 -14
Connecticut 87 - New Hampshire 55 0.961 Connecticut 92 - New Hampshire 53 -7
Coppin State 61 - Rider 75 0.829 Coppin State 53 - Rider 64 -3
Dartmouth 67 - Sacred Heart 68 0.508 Dartmouth 81 - Sacred Heart 76 -6
Dayton 74 - Northwestern 71 0.609 Dayton 71 - Northwestern 66 -2
Drexel 68 - Colgate 69 0.514 Drexel 73 - Colgate 56 -18
East Carolina 75 - Coastal Carolina 66 0.746 East Carolina 63 - Coastal Carolina 59 5
Elon 84 - Unranked 58 Elon 103 - Unranked 66
Evansville 87 - Unranked 57 Evansville 96 - Unranked 49
Georgetown 75 - Fairfield 72 0.578 Georgetown 69 - Fairfield 57 -9
Grand Canyon 78 - Western Kentucky 69 0.772 Grand Canyon 74 - Western Kentucky 72 7
High Point 76 - Jackson State 65 0.791 High Point 80 - Jackson State 71 2
Houston 77 - Auburn 70 0.663 Houston 69 - Auburn 74 12
Kansas State 79 - Cleveland State 65 0.834 Kansas State 77 - Cleveland State 64 1
Kentucky 87 - Bucknell 61 0.94 Kentucky 100 - Bucknell 72 -2
La Salle 74 - Lafayette 64 0.78 La Salle 81 - Lafayette 60 -11
Le Moyne 84 - Unranked 57 Le Moyne 107 - Unranked 73
Lipscomb 72 - Wofford 70 0.551 Lipscomb 78 - Wofford 69 -7
LIU Brooklyn 82 - Unranked 62 LIU Brooklyn 102 - Unranked 42
Longwood 76 - Morgan State 63 0.801 Longwood 84 - Morgan State 66 -5
Louisville 65 - Tennessee 84 0.883 Louisville 55 - Tennessee 77 3
Loyola MD 81 - Unranked 60 Loyola MD 83 - Unranked 42
Marshall 73 - Toledo 76 0.597 Marshall 80 - Toledo 90 7
Maryland Eastern Shore 80 - Unranked 58 Maryland Eastern Shore 96 - Unranked 77
Mercyhurst 84 - Unranked 57 Mercyhurst 88 - Unranked 62
Merrimack 59 - Vermont 68 0.779 Merrimack 65 - Vermont 51 -23
Miami OH 70 - Wright State 75 0.621 Miami OH 68 - Wright State 81 8
Minnesota 81 - Omaha 64 0.89 Minnesota 68 - Omaha 64 13
Nebraska 84 - Bethune Cookman 62 0.919 Nebraska 63 - Bethune Cookman 58 17
Nevada 80 - Washington 73 0.67 Nevada 63 - Washington 53 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 75 - Memphis 76 0.519 Nevada Las Vegas 74 - Memphis 80 5
New Orleans 64 - Troy 78 0.849 New Orleans 61 - Troy 78 3
Nicholls State 87 - Unranked 55 Nicholls State 93 - Unranked 44
Norfolk State 66 - James Madison 74 0.696 Norfolk State 83 - James Madison 69 -22
Ohio 73 - UNC Asheville 69 0.62 Ohio 82 - UNC Asheville 76 -2
Portland 71 - UC Santa Barbara 74 0.601 Portland 53 - UC Santa Barbara 94 38
Providence 85 - Stonehill 55 0.961 Providence 76 - Stonehill 49 3
Rice 71 - Florida State 80 0.717 Rice 65 - Florida State 73 -1
Richmond 74 - Marist 60 0.828 Richmond 72 - Marist 79 21
Saint Johns 84 - Quinnipiac 68 0.849 Saint Johns 96 - Quinnipiac 73 -7
San Francisco 71 - Boise State 74 0.575 San Francisco 84 - Boise State 73 -14
Seattle 70 - Liberty 67 0.579 Seattle 64 - Liberty 66 5
Seton Hall 80 - Fordham 64 0.854 Seton Hall 56 - Fordham 57 17
Southern Utah 77 - Florida International 71 0.669 Southern Utah 80 - Florida International 75 1
Tarleton State 70 - Sam Houston State 69 0.519 Tarleton State 62 - Sam Houston State 91 30
Texas Arlington 71 - Louisiana Tech 72 0.549 Texas Arlington 77 - Louisiana Tech 92 14
Tulsa 80 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 0.848 Tulsa 103 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 80 -8
UC San Diego 75 - Pepperdine 71 0.594 UC San Diego 94 - Pepperdine 76 -14
Unranked 60 - Alcorn State 84 Unranked 62 - Alcorn State 56
Utah State 77 - Charlotte 66 0.792 Utah State 103 - Charlotte 74 -18
Utah Tech 70 - New Mexico State 71 0.507 Utah Tech 63 - New Mexico State 75 11
Utah Valley 71 - Texas El Paso 67 0.612 Utah Valley 89 - Texas El Paso 60 -25
Wagner 82 - Unranked 53 Wagner 94 - Unranked 52
Wichita State 75 - Montana State 67 0.706 Wichita State 89 - Montana State 69 -12
Winthrop 74 - Arkansas Little Rock 69 0.615 Winthrop 82 - Arkansas Little Rock 67 -10

GAMES OF 11-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 81 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.91 Alabama Birmingham 82 - Southeast Louisiana 72 11
American 66 - Harvard 69 0.581 American 67 - Harvard 55 -15
Brown 71 - Maine 63 0.723 Brown 67 - Maine 69 10
Cal Poly 80 - Unranked 60 Cal Poly 99 - Unranked 66
Campbell 73 - Saint Francis Penn 63 0.761 Campbell 64 - Saint Francis Penn 65 11
Creighton 90 - Fairleigh Dickinson 59 0.964 Creighton 96 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70 5
Detroit 67 - Niagara 72 0.648 Detroit 84 - Niagara 78 -11
Drake 79 - Stephen F Austin 66 0.793 Drake 66 - Stephen F Austin 51 -2
Georgia 78 - Texas Southern 64 0.888 Georgia 92 - Texas Southern 64 -14
Georgia Tech 80 - North Florida 67 0.79 Georgia Tech 93 - North Florida 105 25
Gonzaga 84 - Arizona State 68 0.84 Gonzaga 88 - Arizona State 80 8
Hawaii 74 - San Jose State 67 0.705 Hawaii 80 - San Jose State 69 -4
Indiana 83 - Eastern Illinois 58 0.953 Indiana 90 - Eastern Illinois 55 -10
Louisiana State 82 - Alabama State 59 0.949 Louisiana State 74 - Alabama State 61 10
Loyola Ill 94 - Unranked 50 Loyola Ill 105 - Unranked 53
Miami 81 - Binghamton 64 0.871 Miami 88 - Binghamton 64 -7
Montana 89 - Unranked 54 Montana 94 - Unranked 44
Northeastern 64 - Princeton 75 0.793 Northeastern 76 - Princeton 79 -8
Northern Iowa 72 - UC Irvine 71 0.507 Northern Iowa 60 - UC Irvine 80 21
Oklahoma State 76 - Saint Thomas 65 0.782 Oklahoma State 80 - Saint Thomas 71 2
Pacific 84 - Unranked 62 Pacific 94 - Unranked 41
Robert Morris 84 - Unranked 58 Robert Morris 79 - Unranked 51
Saint Louis 95 - Unranked 56 Saint Louis 95 - Unranked 44
South Dakota 86 - Unranked 60 South Dakota 77 - Unranked 47
UT Rio Grande Valley 85 - Unranked 62 UT Rio Grande Valley 110 - Unranked 60
Vanderbilt 80 - SE Missouri State 62 0.916 Vanderbilt 85 - SE Missouri State 76 9
Wake Forest 81 - Michigan 73 0.68 Wake Forest 72 - Michigan 70 6
Wisconsin 77 - Appalachian State 66 0.776 Wisconsin 87 - Appalachian State 56 -20
Wyoming 77 - Tennessee State 66 0.785 Wyoming 81 - Tennessee State 66 -4


Number of DI Games: 306
Number Correct: 250 = 81.6%
Expected Number Correct: 238.013 = 77.7%
Average Error: 10.49
Average Signed Error: -0.88

GAMES OF 11-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 77 - LIU Brooklyn 65 0.796 Air Force 54 - LIU Brooklyn 63 21
Alabama 88 - Mcneese State 64 0.915 Alabama 72 - Mcneese State 64 16
Alabama AM 84 - Unranked 58 Alabama AM 103 - Unranked 57
Austin Peay 75 - Chattanooga 71 0.614 Austin Peay 67 - Chattanooga 61 -2
Bowling Green 88 - Unranked 59 Bowling Green 107 - Unranked 43
Butler 79 - Western Michigan 59 0.92 Butler 85 - Western Michigan 65 0
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - North Dakota State 67 0.714 Cal State Bakersfield 86 - North Dakota State 81 2
Central Connecticut State 90 - Unranked 53 Central Connecticut State 117 - Unranked 68
Charleston Southern 85 - Unranked 58 Charleston Southern 108 - Unranked 50
DePaul 72 - Mercer 70 0.543 DePaul 95 - Mercer 64 -29
Florida 84 - Grambling State 61 0.937 Florida 86 - Grambling State 62 -1
Furman 75 - Jacksonville 65 0.802 Furman 78 - Jacksonville 69 1
George Mason 75 - Stony Brook 65 0.777 George Mason 94 - Stony Brook 56 -28
Georgia Southern 90 - Unranked 57 Georgia Southern 79 - Unranked 69
Hawaii 78 - Pacific 68 0.752 Hawaii 76 - Pacific 66 0
Howard 88 - Unranked 59 Howard 91 - Unranked 73
Idaho State 89 - Unranked 55 Idaho State 87 - Unranked 63
Iowa State 80 - UMKC 58 0.904 Iowa State 82 - UMKC 56 -4
Marquette 87 - Central Michigan 58 0.961 Marquette 70 - Central Michigan 62 21
Marshall 76 - Southern Indiana 68 0.717 Marshall 77 - Southern Indiana 63 -6
Maryland 87 - Florida AM 56 0.982 Maryland 84 - Florida AM 53 0
Missouri 78 - Eastern Washington 74 0.651 Missouri 84 - Eastern Washington 77 -3
Missouri State 92 - Unranked 55 Missouri State 90 - Unranked 61
Montana State 92 - Unranked 56 Montana State 93 - Unranked 35
North Alabama 75 - Tennessee Martin 69 0.661 North Alabama 87 - Tennessee Martin 69 -12
Notre Dame 82 - Buffalo 64 0.915 Notre Dame 86 - Buffalo 77 9
Ohio State 81 - Youngstown State 66 0.853 Ohio State 81 - Youngstown State 47 -19
Oklahoma 84 - Northwestern State 62 0.942 Oklahoma 73 - Northwestern State 57 6
Pittsburgh 83 - Gardner Webb 66 0.882 Pittsburgh 83 - Gardner Webb 64 -2
Purdue 83 - Yale 64 0.883 Purdue 92 - Yale 84 11
Rutgers 76 - Saint Peters 59 0.894 Rutgers 75 - Saint Peters 65 7
South Carolina State 86 - Unranked 60 South Carolina State 94 - Unranked 48
Southern Methodist 78 - UNC Greensboro 70 0.72 Southern Methodist 81 - UNC Greensboro 68 -5
Texas AM 82 - Lamar 61 0.929 Texas AM 97 - Lamar 71 -5
The Citadel 71 - Stetson 75 0.639 The Citadel 74 - Stetson 52 -26
Tulane 82 - Alcorn State 64 0.913 Tulane 84 - Alcorn State 51 -15
UCLA 83 - Boston 55 0.964 UCLA 71 - Boston 40 -3
UMBC 86 - Unranked 61 UMBC 120 - Unranked 61
Unranked 60 - San Jose State 85 Unranked 56 - San Jose State 93
Virginia 78 - Coppin State 49 0.953 Virginia 62 - Coppin State 45 12
Virginia Tech 78 - Winthrop 68 0.778 Virginia Tech 58 - Winthrop 52 4
Washington State 89 - Idaho 61 0.961 Washington State 90 - Idaho 67 5

GAMES OF 11-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 87 - Unranked 58 Abilene Christian 101 - Unranked 55
Arkansas State 79 - Arkansas Little Rock 67 0.782 Arkansas State 80 - Arkansas Little Rock 63 -5
Army 85 - Unranked 56 Army 101 - Unranked 48
Baylor 81 - Sam Houston State 71 0.726 Baylor 104 - Sam Houston State 67 -27
Boise State 100 - Unranked 48 Boise State 100 - Unranked 65
Bradley 80 - Texas San Antonio 68 0.781 Bradley 85 - Texas San Antonio 72 -1
Cal Baptist 71 - UC Riverside 75 0.626 Cal Baptist 69 - UC Riverside 70 -3
Central Florida 71 - Florida Atlantic 76 0.643 Central Florida 100 - Florida Atlantic 94 -11
Clemson 82 - Eastern Kentucky 68 0.844 Clemson 75 - Eastern Kentucky 62 1
Colorado State 85 - Denver 64 0.918 Colorado State 74 - Denver 65 12
Columbia 80 - Lehigh 67 0.812 Columbia 76 - Lehigh 75 12
Delaware State 82 - Unranked 59 Delaware State 70 - Unranked 54
Duke 78 - Kentucky 79 0.529 Duke 72 - Kentucky 77 4
East Carolina 90 - Unranked 52 East Carolina 110 - Unranked 73
Florida State 82 - Tarleton State 62 0.902 Florida State 72 - Tarleton State 52 0
Fordham 77 - Binghamton 62 0.874 Fordham 78 - Binghamton 63 0
George Washington 80 - North Carolina AT 63 0.901 George Washington 85 - North Carolina AT 80 12
Georgia 78 - North Florida 76 0.566 Georgia 90 - North Florida 77 -11
Georgia Tech 80 - Texas Southern 66 0.877 Georgia Tech 81 - Texas Southern 62 -5
High Point 81 - North Carolina Central 68 0.827 High Point 76 - North Carolina Central 60 -3
Illinois State 70 - Ohio 71 0.533 Illinois State 85 - Ohio 75 -11
Incarnate Word 72 - Prairie View 66 0.673 Incarnate Word 84 - Prairie View 81 3
Indiana State 81 - SIU Edwardsville 64 0.868 Indiana State 72 - SIU Edwardsville 77 22
Iona 75 - Delaware 69 0.671 Iona 58 - Delaware 64 12
Iowa 86 - South Dakota 69 0.894 Iowa 96 - South Dakota 77 -2
IPFW 76 - Bethune Cookman 67 0.726 IPFW 91 - Bethune Cookman 69 -13
IUPUI 83 - Unranked 64 IUPUI 97 - Unranked 55
James Madison 94 - Unranked 53 James Madison 100 - Unranked 52
La Salle 74 - Cornell 73 0.51 La Salle 93 - Cornell 77 -15
Lafayette 68 - Pennsylvania 70 0.537 Lafayette 65 - Pennsylvania 63 -4
Liberty 93 - Unranked 50 Liberty 81 - Unranked 45
Lipscomb 76 - Belmont 73 0.593 Lipscomb 79 - Belmont 80 4
Manhattan 83 - Unranked 60 Manhattan 88 - Unranked 71
Miami OH 76 - Maryland Eastern Shore 62 0.804 Miami OH 88 - Maryland Eastern Shore 70 -4
Michigan State 73 - Kansas 76 0.605 Michigan State 69 - Kansas 77 5
Mississippi 77 - South Alabama 65 0.816 Mississippi 64 - South Alabama 54 2
Mississippi State 86 - Southeast Louisiana 59 0.96 Mississippi State 80 - Southeast Louisiana 59 6
Morgan State 83 - Unranked 61 Morgan State 90 - Unranked 64
Navy 71 - Rider 69 0.567 Navy 79 - Rider 90 13
New Hampshire 71 - Fairfield 68 0.561 New Hampshire 56 - Fairfield 62 9
New Mexico 85 - Texas AM CC 68 0.871 New Mexico 100 - Texas AM CC 81 -2
NJ Tech 64 - Loyola MD 69 0.651 NJ Tech 50 - Loyola MD 68 13
North Dakota 87 - Unranked 58 North Dakota 85 - Unranked 54
Northern Colorado 97 - Unranked 58 Northern Colorado 113 - Unranked 56
Northern Illinois 67 - Monmouth 72 0.63 Northern Illinois 79 - Monmouth 66 -18
Northwestern 80 - Illinois Chicago 66 0.823 Northwestern 83 - Illinois Chicago 74 5
Oregon 90 - Portland 59 0.954 Oregon 80 - Portland 70 21
Oregon State 97 - Unranked 50 Oregon State 94 - Unranked 58
Penn State 87 - Saint Francis Penn 61 0.96 Penn State 92 - Saint Francis Penn 62 -4
Providence 83 - Hampton 54 0.966 Providence 60 - Hampton 51 20
Radford 75 - Old Dominion 65 0.754 Radford 87 - Old Dominion 75 -2
Rhode Island 96 - Unranked 55 Rhode Island 105 - Unranked 73
Rice 77 - UL Monroe 65 0.843 Rice 66 - UL Monroe 50 -4
Saint Josephs 70 - Villanova 74 0.621 Saint Josephs 83 - Villanova 76 -11
Saint Marys 79 - Akron 62 0.89 Saint Marys 87 - Akron 68 -2
Samford 97 - Unranked 55 Samford 108 - Unranked 52
San Diego 76 - Portland State 75 0.509 San Diego 76 - Portland State 85 10
San Diego State 100 - Unranked 43 San Diego State 100 - Unranked 49
Siena 65 - American 67 0.563 Siena 74 - American 66 -10
South Carolina 73 - Towson 65 0.731 South Carolina 80 - Towson 54 -18
South Florida 86 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 61 0.949 South Florida 85 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 69 9
Southern Miss 90 - Unranked 57 Southern Miss 104 - Unranked 65
Southern Utah 92 - Unranked 57 Southern Utah 107 - Unranked 54
Stanford 86 - Northern Arizona 62 0.91 Stanford 90 - Northern Arizona 64 -2
Stephen F Austin 89 - Unranked 54 Stephen F Austin 87 - Unranked 68
Syracuse 76 - Colgate 69 0.693 Syracuse 74 - Colgate 72 5
Temple 73 - Drexel 71 0.565 Temple 69 - Drexel 61 -6
Tennessee Tech 73 - West Georgia 67 0.686 Tennessee Tech 76 - West Georgia 73 3
Texas 85 - Chicago State 59 0.963 Texas 105 - Chicago State 58 -21
Texas Christian 79 - Texas State 62 0.903 Texas Christian 76 - Texas State 71 12
Texas El Paso 89 - Unranked 56 Texas El Paso 78 - Unranked 58
UC Davis 95 - Unranked 55 UC Davis 80 - Unranked 70
UC San Diego 80 - Sacramento State 63 0.907 UC San Diego 64 - Sacramento State 54 7
Utah 83 - Queens 67 0.847 Utah 96 - Queens 65 -15
Valparaiso 71 - Cleveland State 72 0.519 Valparaiso 67 - Cleveland State 75 7
Virginia Military Institute 87 - Unranked 61 Virginia Military Institute 102 - Unranked 56
Western Kentucky 95 - Unranked 55 Western Kentucky 104 - Unranked 76
William and Mary 62 - Norfolk State 78 0.827 William and Mary 84 - Norfolk State 73 -27
Xavier 82 - Jackson State 63 0.894 Xavier 94 - Jackson State 57 -18

GAMES OF 11-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 84 - Unranked 58 Alabama AM 103 - Unranked 69
Arkansas 78 - Troy 68 0.798 Arkansas 65 - Troy 49 -6
Auburn 87 - Kent State 59 0.953 Auburn 79 - Kent State 56 5
Bellarmine 72 - Southern Indiana 68 0.634 Bellarmine 69 - Southern Indiana 71 6
Brigham Young 83 - Queens 66 0.875 Brigham Young 99 - Queens 55 -27
Bucknell 75 - Mt St Marys 65 0.767 Bucknell 89 - Mt St Marys 93 14
Cal State Northridge 92 - Unranked 55 Cal State Northridge 98 - Unranked 50
Campbell 86 - Unranked 58 Campbell 83 - Unranked 40
Central Arkansas 86 - Unranked 61 Central Arkansas 108 - Unranked 49
Charlotte 74 - Richmond 69 0.637 Charlotte 65 - Richmond 48 -12
Colorado 84 - Cal State Fullerton 62 0.941 Colorado 83 - Cal State Fullerton 53 -8
Connecticut 90 - Le Moyne 56 0.967 Connecticut 90 - Le Moyne 49 -7
Creighton 92 - Houston Christian 60 0.981 Creighton 78 - Houston Christian 43 -3
Dartmouth 75 - Albany 67 0.718 Dartmouth 73 - Albany 87 22
Dayton 85 - Ball State 57 0.976 Dayton 77 - Ball State 69 20
East Tennessee State 89 - Unranked 55 East Tennessee State 82 - Unranked 54
Florida Gulf Coast 63 - Saint Bonaventure 75 0.8 Florida Gulf Coast 65 - Saint Bonaventure 74 -3
George Mason 75 - Central Michigan 62 0.853 George Mason 69 - Central Michigan 70 14
Houston 86 - UL Lafayette 57 0.958 Houston 91 - UL Lafayette 45 -17
Illinois 89 - Oakland 63 0.931 Illinois 66 - Oakland 54 14
Jacksonville State 71 - Georgia State 70 0.529 Jacksonville State 72 - Georgia State 67 -4
Kennesaw St 91 - Unranked 60 Kennesaw St 94 - Unranked 59
Longwood 77 - Milwaukee 67 0.762 Longwood 76 - Milwaukee 62 -4
Massachusetts 73 - Louisiana Tech 77 0.646 Massachusetts 66 - Louisiana Tech 76 6
Mercer 89 - Unranked 55 Mercer 101 - Unranked 43
Mercyhurst 69 - Canisius 71 0.577 Mercyhurst 62 - Canisius 52 -12
Middle Tennessee 76 - Evansville 65 0.762 Middle Tennessee 80 - Evansville 63 -6
Minnesota 70 - North Texas 71 0.548 Minnesota 51 - North Texas 54 2
NC State 83 - Coastal Carolina 61 0.942 NC State 82 - Coastal Carolina 70 10
Nebraska 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 62 0.922 Nebraska 86 - Fairleigh Dickinson 60 -3
Nevada 84 - Weber State 60 0.929 Nevada 88 - Weber State 58 -6
Northeastern 73 - Harvard 68 0.64 Northeastern 78 - Harvard 56 -17
Presbyterian 71 - Wofford 72 0.556 Presbyterian 71 - Wofford 68 -4
Saint Johns 87 - Wagner 61 0.954 Saint Johns 66 - Wagner 45 5
San Francisco 83 - Long Beach State 71 0.812 San Francisco 84 - Long Beach State 54 -18
Santa Clara 83 - North Dakota State 66 0.912 Santa Clara 80 - North Dakota State 88 25
SE Missouri State 85 - Unranked 61 SE Missouri State 93 - Unranked 38
Seton Hall 69 - Hofstra 70 0.504 Seton Hall 48 - Hofstra 49 0
Southern California 85 - Texas Arlington 65 0.907 Southern California 98 - Texas Arlington 95 17
Tennessee 84 - Montana 58 0.935 Tennessee 92 - Montana 57 -9
Tennessee State 73 - Howard 72 0.538 Tennessee State 84 - Howard 88 5
Texas AM Commerce 69 - Southern 70 0.519 Texas AM Commerce 70 - Southern 68 -3
Texas Tech 82 - Wyoming 69 0.818 Texas Tech 96 - Wyoming 49 -34
Toledo 76 - Wright State 74 0.56 Toledo 86 - Wright State 77 -7
Tulsa 77 - Oral Roberts 70 0.707 Tulsa 85 - Oral Roberts 76 -2
UC Santa Barbara 77 - Fresno State 67 0.742 UC Santa Barbara 91 - Fresno State 86 5
Utah State 105 - Unranked 48 Utah State 117 - Unranked 53
Utah Tech 86 - Unranked 60 Utah Tech 90 - Unranked 59
Vanderbilt 76 - California 77 0.539 Vanderbilt 85 - California 69 -17
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Merrimack 62 0.809 Virginia Commonwealth 63 - Merrimack 42 -9
Wake Forest 83 - South Carolina Upstate 63 0.916 Wake Forest 85 - South Carolina Upstate 80 15
Washington 99 - Unranked 51 Washington 77 - Unranked 62
Western Carolina 88 - Unranked 54 Western Carolina 99 - Unranked 64
Western Illinois 72 - Green Bay 67 0.662 Western Illinois 73 - Green Bay 87 19
Yale 95 - Unranked 52 Yale 100 - Unranked 46

GAMES OF 11-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Buffalo 74 - Bryant 76 0.542 Buffalo 64 - Bryant 87 21
Cal Poly 70 - Seattle 74 0.631 Cal Poly 75 - Seattle 71 -8
Chattanooga 75 - Morehead State 67 0.673 Chattanooga 76 - Morehead State 62 -6
Denver 90 - Unranked 60 Denver 86 - Unranked 63
Florida International 88 - Unranked 60 Florida International 110 - Unranked 55
Grand Canyon 72 - Arizona State 76 0.613 Grand Canyon 76 - Arizona State 87 7
IUPUI 68 - Eastern Michigan 69 0.518 IUPUI 71 - Eastern Michigan 74 2
Jacksonville 74 - South Carolina State 64 0.794 Jacksonville 71 - South Carolina State 62 1
Kansas State 75 - Louisiana State 74 0.529 Kansas State 65 - Louisiana State 76 12
Missouri 86 - Mississippi Valley State 56 0.989 Missouri 111 - Mississippi Valley State 39 -42
Nevada Las Vegas 80 - Omaha 68 0.822 Nevada Las Vegas 80 - Omaha 69 1
New Mexico State 73 - Texas AM CC 71 0.558 New Mexico State 83 - Texas AM CC 82 1
New Orleans 72 - Lindenwood 69 0.605 New Orleans 82 - Lindenwood 74 -5
North Dakota 66 - Utah Valley 76 0.725 North Dakota 77 - Utah Valley 71 -16
Northern Kentucky 73 - Nicholls State 68 0.665 Northern Kentucky 59 - Nicholls State 61 7
Oklahoma State 77 - Southern Illinois 68 0.807 Oklahoma State 85 - Southern Illinois 78 2
Pacific 76 - Northern Arizona 71 0.591 Pacific 57 - Northern Arizona 60 8
Robert Morris 73 - Stonehill 67 0.678 Robert Morris 63 - Stonehill 51 -6
South Dakota 93 - Unranked 59 South Dakota 92 - Unranked 69
South Dakota State 80 - Northern Colorado 74 0.658 South Dakota State 69 - Northern Colorado 78 15
Tarleton State 87 - Unranked 57 Tarleton State 88 - Unranked 57
The Citadel 87 - Unranked 59 The Citadel 79 - Unranked 54
UC Riverside 96 - Unranked 55 UC Riverside 79 - Unranked 51
UL Monroe 85 - Unranked 59 UL Monroe 110 - Unranked 48
UMBC 73 - Coppin State 64 0.714 UMBC 92 - Coppin State 67 -16
Wichita State 79 - Northern Iowa 69 0.769 Wichita State 79 - Northern Iowa 73 4

GAMES OF 11-15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Belmont 74 0.646 Air Force 71 - Belmont 79 3
Boston College 72 - Temple 74 0.569 Boston College 72 - Temple 69 -5
Brown 72 - New Hampshire 67 0.628 Brown 76 - New Hampshire 58 -13
Butler 72 - Southern Methodist 76 0.611 Butler 81 - Southern Methodist 70 -15
Cal Baptist 78 - LIU Brooklyn 64 0.85 Cal Baptist 90 - LIU Brooklyn 77 1
Charleston Southern 71 - UT Rio Grande Valley 72 0.531 Charleston Southern 76 - UT Rio Grande Valley 86 9
Cincinnati 84 - Nicholls State 63 0.925 Cincinnati 86 - Nicholls State 49 -16
College of Charleston 74 - Florida Atlantic 79 0.643 College of Charleston 119 - Florida Atlantic 116 -8
DePaul 70 - Duquesne 73 0.602 DePaul 84 - Duquesne 58 -29
Fairfield 84 - Unranked 57 Fairfield 93 - Unranked 44
Florida State 74 - Florida 80 0.686 Florida State 74 - Florida 87 7
Furman 76 - Tulane 74 0.584 Furman 75 - Tulane 67 -6
Gardner Webb 78 - Elon 68 0.762 Gardner Webb 80 - Elon 79 9
Georgia Tech 75 - Georgia 78 0.582 Georgia Tech 69 - Georgia 77 5
Gonzaga 94 - UMass Lowell 65 0.945 Gonzaga 113 - UMass Lowell 54 -30
High Point 74 - Alabama Birmingham 77 0.58 High Point 68 - Alabama Birmingham 65 -6
Holy Cross 70 - Sacred Heart 73 0.601 Holy Cross 82 - Sacred Heart 75 -10
Iona 68 - Vermont 71 0.571 Iona 62 - Vermont 59 -6
Iowa 76 - Washington State 79 0.594 Iowa 76 - Washington State 66 -13
Manhattan 62 - Fordham 75 0.829 Manhattan 78 - Fordham 76 -15
Marist 70 - Army 65 0.632 Marist 91 - Army 88 2
Maryland 71 - Marquette 77 0.669 Maryland 74 - Marquette 78 -2
Memphis 84 - Ohio 66 0.937 Memphis 94 - Ohio 70 -6
Michigan 74 - Texas Christian 77 0.554 Michigan 76 - Texas Christian 64 -15
North Alabama 74 - Samford 75 0.526 North Alabama 96 - Samford 97 0
North Carolina 83 - American 61 0.936 North Carolina 107 - American 55 -30
North Carolina Central 71 - Georgia Southern 74 0.637 North Carolina Central 75 - Georgia Southern 80 2
Northwestern 87 - Eastern Illinois 57 0.964 Northwestern 67 - Eastern Illinois 58 21
Old Dominion 72 - Maryland Eastern Shore 66 0.672 Old Dominion 73 - Maryland Eastern Shore 71 4
Oregon State 79 - Cal State Fullerton 65 0.853 Oregon State 70 - Cal State Fullerton 51 -5
Pennsylvania 68 - Saint Josephs 74 0.687 Pennsylvania 69 - Saint Josephs 86 11
Pittsburgh 77 - West Virginia 70 0.685 Pittsburgh 86 - West Virginia 62 -17
Princeton 73 - Loyola Ill 70 0.579 Princeton 68 - Loyola Ill 73 8
Purdue 79 - Alabama 78 0.537 Purdue 87 - Alabama 78 -8
Quinnipiac 72 - Maine 69 0.601 Quinnipiac 58 - Maine 55 0
Robert Morris 74 - Lindenwood 67 0.707 Robert Morris 67 - Lindenwood 53 -7
Rutgers 81 - Monmouth 61 0.893 Rutgers 98 - Monmouth 81 3
Saint Thomas 92 - Unranked 54 Saint Thomas 102 - Unranked 54
South Carolina Upstate 67 - UNC Wilmington 79 0.809 South Carolina Upstate 85 - UNC Wilmington 89 -8
South Florida 81 - West Georgia 61 0.952 South Florida 74 - West Georgia 55 1
Stonehill 69 - New Orleans 71 0.574 Stonehill 80 - New Orleans 54 -28
Tennessee Tech 73 - Virginia Military Institute 71 0.554 Tennessee Tech 72 - Virginia Military Institute 71 1
Texas AM 73 - Ohio State 75 0.571 Texas AM 78 - Ohio State 64 -16
Texas Arlington 92 - Unranked 57 Texas Arlington 95 - Unranked 69
UCLA 86 - Lehigh 58 0.958 UCLA 85 - Lehigh 45 -12
Villanova 67 - Virginia 68 0.541 Villanova 60 - Virginia 70 9
Virginia Tech 74 - Penn State 79 0.637 Virginia Tech 64 - Penn State 86 17
Western Michigan 66 - SIU Edwardsville 69 0.578 Western Michigan 60 - SIU Edwardsville 79 16
Winthrop 80 - William and Mary 62 0.902 Winthrop 86 - William and Mary 85 17
Wisconsin 73 - Arizona 79 0.667 Wisconsin 103 - Arizona 88 -21

GAMES OF 11-16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 64 - Texas State 71 0.68 Abilene Christian 72 - Texas State 60 -19
Albany 69 - Siena 72 0.589 Albany 70 - Siena 60 -13
Arkansas State 75 - Stephen F Austin 68 0.686 Arkansas State 59 - Stephen F Austin 49 -3
Ball State 66 - Indiana State 80 0.811 Ball State 84 - Indiana State 94 -4
Bethune Cookman 73 - South Carolina State 68 0.643 Bethune Cookman 75 - South Carolina State 62 -8
Binghamton 85 - Unranked 59 Binghamton 77 - Unranked 48
Boston 68 - Dartmouth 69 0.557 Boston 78 - Dartmouth 50 -29
Bradley 82 - Northern Illinois 59 0.943 Bradley 76 - Northern Illinois 60 7
Brigham Young 88 - Idaho 61 0.961 Brigham Young 95 - Idaho 71 3
Brown 73 - Holy Cross 66 0.713 Brown 65 - Holy Cross 73 15
Bucknell 70 - Richmond 71 0.525 Bucknell 80 - Richmond 76 -5
Cal State Bakersfield 69 - Fresno State 71 0.558 Cal State Bakersfield 74 - Fresno State 56 -20
Canisius 72 - SIU Edwardsville 69 0.595 Canisius 58 - SIU Edwardsville 76 21
Cleveland State 73 - Eastern Michigan 63 0.728 Cleveland State 71 - Eastern Michigan 63 2
Columbia 77 - Mercyhurst 64 0.857 Columbia 77 - Mercyhurst 63 -1
Cornell 81 - Lafayette 63 0.928 Cornell 81 - Lafayette 71 8
Creighton 82 - UMKC 63 0.875 Creighton 79 - UMKC 56 -4
Davidson 76 - East Tennessee State 67 0.77 Davidson 76 - East Tennessee State 70 3
Dayton 101 - Unranked 46 Dayton 76 - Unranked 55
Delaware State 82 - Unranked 59 Delaware State 93 - Unranked 51
Detroit 68 - Toledo 79 0.805 Detroit 67 - Toledo 82 4
Drake 78 - Florida Gulf Coast 61 0.891 Drake 63 - Florida Gulf Coast 61 15
Drexel 72 - La Salle 68 0.616 Drexel 68 - La Salle 71 7
Duke 87 - Wofford 61 0.959 Duke 86 - Wofford 35 -25
East Carolina 66 - George Mason 69 0.604 East Carolina 78 - George Mason 77 -4
Evansville 70 - Radford 71 0.51 Evansville 81 - Radford 92 10
Florida Atlantic 79 - Liberty 65 0.804 Florida Atlantic 77 - Liberty 74 11
Georgetown 71 - Notre Dame 74 0.596 Georgetown 63 - Notre Dame 84 18
Hampton 59 - Norfolk State 78 0.869 Hampton 58 - Norfolk State 67 -10
Houston Christian 85 - Unranked 65 Houston Christian 84 - Unranked 64
Illinois Chicago 94 - Unranked 55 Illinois Chicago 117 - Unranked 59
Incarnate Word 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 69 0.651 Incarnate Word 92 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 64 -23
Indiana 76 - South Carolina 70 0.672 Indiana 87 - South Carolina 71 -10
IPFW 78 - Southern Indiana 66 0.837 IPFW 93 - Southern Indiana 74 -7
Kansas 87 - Oakland 61 0.926 Kansas 78 - Oakland 57 5
Kennesaw St 75 - Presbyterian 73 0.602 Kennesaw St 85 - Presbyterian 67 -16
Long Beach State 83 - Portland 67 0.835 Long Beach State 61 - Portland 63 18
Longwood 72 - Tennessee Martin 68 0.616 Longwood 64 - Tennessee Martin 62 2
Marshall 75 - Bellarmine 69 0.657 Marshall 83 - Bellarmine 62 -15
Massachusetts 75 - Hofstra 74 0.519 Massachusetts 71 - Hofstra 75 5
Michigan State 86 - Bowling Green 59 0.964 Michigan State 86 - Bowling Green 72 13
Middle Tennessee 72 - Murray State 68 0.599 Middle Tennessee 67 - Murray State 88 25
Minnesota 75 - Yale 70 0.639 Minnesota 59 - Yale 56 2
Mississippi 73 - Colorado State 74 0.542 Mississippi 84 - Colorado State 69 -16
Missouri State 74 - Tulsa 73 0.533 Missouri State 111 - Tulsa 106 -4
Morgan State 69 - NJ Tech 65 0.648 Morgan State 81 - NJ Tech 69 -8
Mt St Marys 71 - Saint Francis Penn 70 0.55 Mt St Marys 66 - Saint Francis Penn 58 -7
Nevada 83 - Santa Clara 69 0.859 Nevada 85 - Santa Clara 59 -12
New Hampshire 71 - Sacred Heart 72 0.515 New Hampshire 63 - Sacred Heart 80 16
North Carolina Central 74 - William and Mary 70 0.636 North Carolina Central 78 - William and Mary 76 2
Northeastern 68 - Central Connecticut State 71 0.589 Northeastern 80 - Central Connecticut State 62 -21
Oklahoma 83 - Stetson 66 0.883 Oklahoma 85 - Stetson 64 -4
Oral Roberts 90 - Unranked 57 Oral Roberts 87 - Unranked 52
Providence 83 - Green Bay 59 0.96 Providence 79 - Green Bay 65 10
Rice 76 - Northwestern State 67 0.777 Rice 77 - Northwestern State 75 7
Sacramento State 67 - Cal State Northridge 73 0.69 Sacramento State 69 - Cal State Northridge 79 4
Saint Bonaventure 83 - Le Moyne 62 0.903 Saint Bonaventure 71 - Le Moyne 52 2
Saint Louis 75 - Loyola Marymount 72 0.585 Saint Louis 77 - Loyola Marymount 71 -3
San Diego 72 - Idaho State 70 0.549 San Diego 66 - Idaho State 78 14
San Francisco 86 - Chicago State 59 0.954 San Francisco 82 - Chicago State 37 -18
Seton Hall 76 - Wagner 59 0.871 Seton Hall 54 - Wagner 28 -9
South Alabama 71 - Mercer 68 0.574 South Alabama 75 - Mercer 66 -6
Southern Utah 74 - Omaha 72 0.547 Southern Utah 79 - Omaha 73 -4
Stony Brook 91 - Unranked 56 Stony Brook 93 - Unranked 45
Syracuse 77 - Youngstown State 72 0.61 Syracuse 104 - Youngstown State 95 -4
Tennessee State 73 - Alabama AM 67 0.659 Tennessee State 81 - Alabama AM 71 -4
Tennessee Tech 74 - UT Rio Grande Valley 73 0.521 Tennessee Tech 58 - UT Rio Grande Valley 83 26
Texas 90 - Mississippi Valley State 53 0.995 Texas 89 - Mississippi Valley State 43 -9
Texas San Antonio 76 - Arkansas Little Rock 70 0.647 Texas San Antonio 64 - Arkansas Little Rock 81 23
Towson 71 - James Madison 69 0.537 Towson 67 - James Madison 63 -2
UC Irvine 83 - Pepperdine 66 0.896 UC Irvine 80 - Pepperdine 62 -1
UC San Diego 78 - Seattle 69 0.759 UC San Diego 71 - Seattle 84 22
UMBC 67 - Saint Peters 71 0.641 UMBC 61 - Saint Peters 69 4
UNC Greensboro 94 - Unranked 52 UNC Greensboro 99 - Unranked 54
Vanderbilt 81 - Jackson State 64 0.875 Vanderbilt 94 - Jackson State 81 4
Virginia Commonwealth 83 - Loyola MD 57 0.95 Virginia Commonwealth 83 - Loyola MD 57 0
Virginia Military Institute 70 - Charleston Southern 71 0.519 Virginia Military Institute 80 - Charleston Southern 69 -12
Western Illinois 72 - Central Arkansas 66 0.701 Western Illinois 63 - Central Arkansas 61 4
Winthrop 76 - Georgia Southern 67 0.79 Winthrop 87 - Georgia Southern 89 11
Wright State 94 - Unranked 56 Wright State 92 - Unranked 56
Wyoming 82 - Utah Tech 64 0.906 Wyoming 86 - Utah Tech 69 1
Xavier 75 - Wake Forest 74 0.502 Xavier 75 - Wake Forest 60 -14

GAMES OF 11-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 80 - Saint Thomas 65 0.861 Arizona State 81 - Saint Thomas 66 0
Baylor 86 - Tarleton State 61 0.908 Baylor 104 - Tarleton State 41 -38
Boise State 75 - Clemson 73 0.565 Boise State 84 - Clemson 71 -11
Brown 71 - Sacred Heart 67 0.627 Brown 89 - Sacred Heart 70 -15
Coastal Carolina 70 - Jacksonville State 68 0.538 Coastal Carolina 53 - Jacksonville State 71 20
College of Charleston 77 - Liberty 68 0.743 College of Charleston 47 - Liberty 68 30
Colorado 85 - Harvard 60 0.95 Colorado 88 - Harvard 66 3
Denver 73 - Montana State 76 0.587 Denver 79 - Montana State 78 -4
Eastern Washington 82 - Cal Poly 68 0.859 Eastern Washington 78 - Cal Poly 82 18
Fairleigh Dickinson 73 - Manhattan 69 0.618 Fairleigh Dickinson 85 - Manhattan 82 1
Hawaii 75 - Weber State 66 0.731 Hawaii 73 - Weber State 68 4
Illinois State 89 - Unranked 54 Illinois State 107 - Unranked 52
Lamar 66 - Sam Houston State 78 0.801 Lamar 72 - Sam Houston State 85 1
Lindenwood 69 - Stonehill 70 0.53 Lindenwood 75 - Stonehill 74 -2
Merrimack 68 - Princeton 70 0.541 Merrimack 57 - Princeton 68 9
Miami 86 - Coppin State 55 0.958 Miami 93 - Coppin State 63 1
Mississippi State 78 - Utah 75 0.578 Mississippi State 78 - Utah 73 -2
Navy 73 - Campbell 67 0.715 Navy 66 - Campbell 86 26
Nebraska 70 - Saint Marys 77 0.67 Nebraska 74 - Saint Marys 77 -4
New Hampshire 73 - Holy Cross 71 0.577 New Hampshire 72 - Holy Cross 74 4
Oregon 81 - Troy 65 0.909 Oregon 82 - Troy 61 -5
Robert Morris 72 - New Orleans 69 0.616 Robert Morris 73 - New Orleans 62 -8
Saint Johns 82 - New Mexico 78 0.615 Saint Johns 85 - New Mexico 71 -10
Samford 81 - Texas Southern 65 0.891 Samford 97 - Texas Southern 82 1
San Jose State 63 - UC Santa Barbara 81 0.866 San Jose State 59 - UC Santa Barbara 64 -13
SE Missouri State 67 - Chattanooga 78 0.778 SE Missouri State 82 - Chattanooga 87 -6
Southern 85 - Unranked 58 Southern 131 - Unranked 42
Southern California 81 - California 72 0.753 Southern California 66 - California 71 14
Stanford 82 - UC Davis 68 0.838 Stanford 79 - UC Davis 65 0
Tennessee 83 - Austin Peay 60 0.934 Tennessee 103 - Austin Peay 68 -12
The Citadel 74 - North Carolina AT 69 0.649 The Citadel 73 - North Carolina AT 82 14
Washington 82 - UMass Lowell 69 0.836 Washington 74 - UMass Lowell 69 8
Western Kentucky 75 - Lipscomb 74 0.569 Western Kentucky 66 - Lipscomb 61 -4
Western Michigan 67 - Canisius 73 0.652 Western Michigan 92 - Canisius 69 -29
William and Mary 68 - Georgia Southern 76 0.742 William and Mary 102 - Georgia Southern 87 -23
Winthrop 79 - North Carolina Central 65 0.867 Winthrop 77 - North Carolina Central 75 12


Number of DI Games: 301
Number Correct: 224 = 74.4%
Expected Number Correct: 222.23 = 73.8%
Average Error: 9.84
Average Signed Error: -1.31