Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2017 Week 14 (11/26/2017)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
10 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
26.12 |
2 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
24.94 |
3 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
11 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
24.65 |
4 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
10 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
23.92 |
5 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
11 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
23.83 |
6 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
12 - 0 |
9 - 0 |
22.82 |
7 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
11 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
22.38 |
8 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
11 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
19.67 |
9 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
18.43 |
10 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
9 - 3 |
0 - 0 |
16.43 |
11 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
11 - 0 |
8 - 0 |
16.35 |
12 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
16.35 |
13 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
16.1 |
14 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
15.13 |
15 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
9 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
15.08 |
16 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
14.51 |
17 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
9 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
14.1 |
18 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
13.89 |
19 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
9 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
13.77 |
20 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
13.18 |
21 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
12.68 |
22 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
12.42 |
23 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
11.99 |
24 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
8 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
11.52 |
25 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
10.87 |
26 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
10.79 |
27 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
10 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
10.35 |
28 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
9 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
9.64 |
29 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
9.53 |
30 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
9.15 |
31 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
8.79 |
32 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
8.17 |
33 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
9 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
6.67 |
34 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
6.6 |
35 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
5 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
6.53 |
36 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
6.44 |
37 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
6.39 |
38 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
5.96 |
39 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
5.49 |
40 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
9 - 3 |
8 - 0 |
5.47 |
41 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
5.4 |
42 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
5.32 |
43 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
10 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
5.28 |
44 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
4.8 |
45 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
4.74 |
46 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
4.71 |
47 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
4.45 |
48 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
4.42 |
49 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
7 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
4.3 |
50 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
3.29 |
51 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
3.22 |
52 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
7 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
2.77 |
53 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
2.22 |
54 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
1.97 |
55 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
9 - 3 |
7 - 1 |
1.79 |
56 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
1.75 |
57 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
6 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
1.56 |
58 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
1.31 |
59 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
1.26 |
60 |
California |
PAC12-N |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
1.15 |
61 |
Troy |
SUN |
9 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
1.1 |
62 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
0.54 |
63 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
0.2 |
64 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
0 |
65 |
Army |
IND |
8 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-0.04 |
66 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
4 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-0.81 |
67 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-0.83 |
68 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-1.21 |
69 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
7 - 3 |
6 - 1 |
-1.6 |
70 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-2.04 |
71 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-2.11 |
72 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-2.11 |
73 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
4 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
-2.9 |
74 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-3.15 |
75 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-3.54 |
76 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
7 - 4 |
6 - 1 |
-3.8 |
77 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-4.14 |
78 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
-4.23 |
79 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-4.41 |
80 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-4.66 |
81 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-5.02 |
82 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-5.16 |
83 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-5.22 |
84 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-5.54 |
85 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
4 - 7 |
2 - 0 |
-5.67 |
86 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
1 - 11 |
1 - 8 |
-5.8 |
87 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
9 - 3 |
7 - 1 |
-6.21 |
88 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-6.26 |
89 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
5 - 7 |
1 - 7 |
-6.92 |
90 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
4 - 8 |
0 - 8 |
-7.85 |
91 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
7 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
-8 |
92 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-8.48 |
93 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-8.53 |
94 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-8.54 |
95 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-8.71 |
96 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-8.76 |
97 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-8.84 |
98 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-9.07 |
99 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-9.48 |
100 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
2 - 10 |
0 - 9 |
-9.89 |
101 |
BYU |
IND |
4 - 9 |
1 - 1 |
-10.67 |
102 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-10.86 |
103 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
7 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
-10.9 |
104 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
6 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
-11.21 |
105 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-11.26 |
106 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-11.36 |
107 |
ULM |
SUN |
4 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-11.68 |
108 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
6 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-12.88 |
109 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
2 - 9 |
2 - 5 |
-13.04 |
110 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-13.15 |
111 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
5 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
-13.25 |
112 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
2 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-13.43 |
113 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-13.74 |
114 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-15.5 |
115 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
1 - 11 |
0 - 9 |
-15.59 |
116 |
Idaho |
SUN |
3 - 8 |
2 - 5 |
-16.41 |
117 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-17.41 |
118 |
ULL |
SUN |
5 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
-17.72 |
119 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
2 - 9 |
1 - 6 |
-17.8 |
120 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-17.85 |
121 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
1 - 11 |
0 - 9 |
-18.27 |
122 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-19.4 |
123 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-19.87 |
124 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-23.19 |
125 |
Texas St |
SUN |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-23.67 |
126 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
1 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-23.86 |
127 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
1 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-25.04 |
128 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
2 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-27.65 |
129 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
0 - 12 |
0 - 8 |
-29.16 |
130 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-30.01 |