Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2014 Postseason
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Ohio State |
BIG10-E |
14 - 1 |
9 - 0 |
31.37 |
2 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
12 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
29.29 |
3 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
13 - 2 |
9 - 1 |
28.61 |
4 |
Texas Christian |
BIG12 |
12 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
27.67 |
5 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
25.05 |
6 |
Michigan State |
BIG10-E |
11 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
23.68 |
7 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
11 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
21.58 |
8 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
7 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
20.86 |
9 |
Miss State |
SEC-W |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
19.66 |
10 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
11 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
19.39 |
11 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
9 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
17.68 |
12 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
11 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
17.53 |
13 |
Florida State |
ACC-A |
13 - 1 |
9 - 0 |
17.46 |
14 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
10 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
17.1 |
15 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
11 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
16.76 |
16 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
16.51 |
17 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
16.44 |
18 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
13 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
15.8 |
19 |
Southern California |
PAC12-S |
9 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
15.62 |
20 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
8 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
15.45 |
21 |
Kansas State |
BIG12 |
9 - 4 |
7 - 2 |
15.24 |
22 |
Boise State |
MWC-M |
12 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
14.44 |
23 |
Arizona State |
PAC12-S |
10 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
14.23 |
24 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
10 - 4 |
7 - 3 |
13.4 |
25 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
9 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
12.31 |
26 |
Louisiana State |
SEC-W |
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
12.22 |
27 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
9 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
11.98 |
28 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
9 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
11.38 |
29 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
9 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
10.95 |
30 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
10.71 |
31 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
7 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
10.04 |
32 |
Texas AM |
SEC-W |
8 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
9.35 |
33 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
8 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
8.81 |
34 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
8.53 |
35 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
7 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
7.26 |
36 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
7 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
7.15 |
37 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
8 - 5 |
1 - 0 |
6.93 |
38 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
8 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
6.51 |
39 |
Memphis |
AAC |
10 - 3 |
7 - 1 |
5.01 |
40 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
5.01 |
41 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
6 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
4.68 |
42 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
9 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
4.45 |
43 |
Utah State |
MWC-M |
10 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
4.37 |
44 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
8 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
4.35 |
45 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
7 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
4.07 |
46 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
6 - 7 |
5 - 4 |
3.54 |
47 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
8 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
3.27 |
48 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
2.59 |
49 |
Colorado State |
MWC-M |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
2.53 |
50 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
10 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
2.51 |
51 |
Penn State |
BIG10-E |
7 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
2.36 |
52 |
Cincinnati |
AAC |
9 - 4 |
7 - 1 |
2.35 |
53 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
2.13 |
54 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
1.85 |
55 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
1.72 |
56 |
Western Kentucky |
CUSA-E |
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
1.26 |
57 |
Brigham Young |
IND |
8 - 5 |
1 - 0 |
0.95 |
58 |
Oklahoma State |
BIG12 |
7 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
0.9 |
59 |
Navy |
IND |
8 - 5 |
2 - 1 |
0.47 |
60 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
0.06 |
61 |
Northern Illinois |
MAC-W |
11 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
-0.22 |
62 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
6 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-0.32 |
63 |
California |
PAC12-N |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-0.36 |
64 |
Central Florida |
AAC |
9 - 4 |
7 - 1 |
-0.39 |
65 |
Georgia Southern |
SUN |
9 - 3 |
8 - 0 |
-0.63 |
66 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-0.84 |
67 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
SUN |
9 - 4 |
7 - 1 |
-0.98 |
68 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-1.42 |
69 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
6 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-1.48 |
70 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
9 - 4 |
7 - 1 |
-1.68 |
71 |
Western Michigan |
MAC-W |
8 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
-2.46 |
72 |
Alabama Birmingham |
CUSA-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-2.52 |
73 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
6 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-2.68 |
74 |
Appalachian State |
SUN |
7 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
-3.01 |
75 |
Houston |
AAC |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-3.19 |
76 |
Oregon State |
PAC12-N |
5 - 7 |
2 - 7 |
-3.22 |
77 |
East Carolina |
AAC |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-3.32 |
78 |
San Diego State |
MWC-W |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-3.53 |
79 |
Washington State |
PAC12-N |
3 - 9 |
2 - 7 |
-4.58 |
80 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-4.65 |
81 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-4.68 |
82 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
2 - 10 |
0 - 9 |
-5.97 |
83 |
Texas El Paso |
CUSA-W |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-6.26 |
84 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
4 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
-6.58 |
85 |
Arkansas State |
SUN |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-7.14 |
86 |
Central Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-7.88 |
87 |
Temple |
AAC |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-8.1 |
88 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-8.26 |
89 |
Fresno State |
MWC-W |
6 - 8 |
5 - 4 |
-8.73 |
90 |
Middle Tennessee |
CUSA-E |
6 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-8.83 |
91 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-9.75 |
92 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-9.91 |
93 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
3 - 9 |
0 - 8 |
-10.38 |
94 |
Texas State |
SUN |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-10.4 |
95 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
3 - 9 |
1 - 8 |
-10.88 |
96 |
Florida International |
CUSA-E |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-11.65 |
97 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
8 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
-12.01 |
98 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-12.08 |
99 |
Ball State |
MAC-W |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-12.2 |
100 |
Iowa State |
BIG12 |
2 - 10 |
0 - 9 |
-12.22 |
101 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-12.28 |
102 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
6 - 7 |
5 - 3 |
-12.38 |
103 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-14.06 |
104 |
Louisiana Monroe |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-14.13 |
105 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-14.15 |
106 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
4 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-14.78 |
107 |
Florida Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-15.29 |
108 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
5 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
-15.61 |
109 |
Texas San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-15.81 |
110 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-16.76 |
111 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-17.46 |
112 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-18.1 |
113 |
Army |
IND |
4 - 8 |
1 - 2 |
-18.25 |
114 |
South Florida |
AAC |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-18.34 |
115 |
Tulane |
AAC |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-18.57 |
116 |
Massachusetts |
MAC-E |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-19.53 |
117 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
2 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-19.83 |
118 |
San Jose State |
MWC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-19.92 |
119 |
Kent State |
MAC-E |
2 - 9 |
1 - 6 |
-20.44 |
120 |
Troy |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-20.46 |
121 |
Nevada Las Vegas |
MWC-W |
2 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-22.31 |
122 |
Tulsa |
AAC |
2 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-22.51 |
123 |
Idaho |
SUN |
1 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-25.72 |
124 |
Connecticut |
AAC |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-26.38 |
125 |
Southern Methodist |
AAC |
1 - 11 |
1 - 7 |
-29.17 |
126 |
Georgia State |
SUN |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-29.24 |
127 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-29.62 |
128 |
Eastern Michigan |
MAC-W |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-30.42 |