Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2017 Week 12 (11/12/2017)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
10 - 0 |
7 - 0 |
26.19 |
2 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
8 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
25.39 |
3 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
8 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
25.34 |
4 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
24.6 |
5 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
9 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
23.64 |
6 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
22.69 |
7 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
8 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
22.6 |
8 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
9 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
22.47 |
9 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
10 - 0 |
7 - 0 |
20.96 |
10 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
9 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
19.46 |
11 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
7 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
17.48 |
12 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
17.19 |
13 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
16.38 |
14 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
16.36 |
15 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
15.98 |
16 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
7 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
15.57 |
17 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
6 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
15.26 |
18 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
6 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
14.15 |
19 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
5 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
13.9 |
20 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
13.48 |
21 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
8 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
13.41 |
22 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
6 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
12.14 |
23 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
9 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
12.11 |
24 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
5 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
11.69 |
25 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
10.86 |
26 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
7 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
10.61 |
27 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
10.05 |
28 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
9.49 |
29 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
5 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
9.03 |
30 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
8.76 |
31 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
5 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
8.46 |
32 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
8.4 |
33 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
8.07 |
34 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
6 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
7.52 |
35 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
4 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
7.26 |
36 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
6 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
7.19 |
37 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
8 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
6.88 |
38 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
6.72 |
39 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
3 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
6.05 |
40 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
8 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
5.91 |
41 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
5.72 |
42 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
7 - 3 |
6 - 0 |
5.3 |
43 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
7 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
5.25 |
44 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
5.24 |
45 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
5.04 |
46 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
3.55 |
47 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
8 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
2.69 |
48 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
5 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
2.43 |
49 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
2.42 |
50 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
1.98 |
51 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
1.71 |
52 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
6 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
1.59 |
53 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
1.32 |
54 |
California |
PAC12-N |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
1.18 |
55 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
7 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
1.11 |
56 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
1.03 |
57 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
4 - 6 |
1 - 6 |
0.93 |
58 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
8 - 2 |
4 - 2 |
0.55 |
59 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
0.49 |
60 |
Army |
IND |
8 - 2 |
1 - 0 |
0.31 |
61 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
4 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
-0.06 |
62 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
6 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
-0.14 |
63 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
-0.2 |
64 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
5 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-0.68 |
65 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
5 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-1.12 |
66 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
5 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
-1.35 |
67 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
4 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
-1.54 |
68 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
3 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-1.85 |
69 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
7 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
-1.86 |
70 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
5 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
-1.88 |
71 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
7 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
-1.93 |
72 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-2.14 |
73 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-2.36 |
74 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
4 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
-2.62 |
75 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
2 - 8 |
1 - 6 |
-2.63 |
76 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
5 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
-2.82 |
77 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-2.82 |
78 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
4 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
-2.9 |
79 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-3.14 |
80 |
Troy |
SUN |
8 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
-3.8 |
81 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
3 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-3.96 |
82 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
4 - 6 |
0 - 6 |
-5.44 |
83 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-6.1 |
84 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-6.29 |
85 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
4 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
-6.37 |
86 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-6.48 |
87 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
3 - 7 |
1 - 0 |
-6.83 |
88 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
1 - 9 |
1 - 6 |
-6.87 |
89 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
4 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-7.65 |
90 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
6 - 4 |
5 - 1 |
-7.88 |
91 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
7 - 3 |
6 - 1 |
-7.89 |
92 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
4 - 6 |
0 - 6 |
-8.17 |
93 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
4 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-8.31 |
94 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-8.64 |
95 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
2 - 8 |
0 - 7 |
-8.82 |
96 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
3 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-9.33 |
97 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-9.67 |
98 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
2 - 8 |
2 - 4 |
-9.89 |
99 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
5 - 5 |
4 - 2 |
-10.12 |
100 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
7 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
-10.23 |
101 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-10.5 |
102 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
1 - 9 |
0 - 7 |
-10.75 |
103 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
-10.81 |
104 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
4 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-11.4 |
105 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
3 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-11.8 |
106 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
5 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
-11.86 |
107 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
4 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-12.21 |
108 |
BYU |
IND |
3 - 8 |
1 - 0 |
-12.29 |
109 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
6 - 3 |
5 - 1 |
-12.81 |
110 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
6 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
-13.5 |
111 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
2 - 8 |
2 - 4 |
-13.77 |
112 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
5 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-13.81 |
113 |
ULM |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
-14.06 |
114 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-14.09 |
115 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-14.91 |
116 |
Idaho |
SUN |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-15.24 |
117 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
4 - 6 |
2 - 4 |
-15.7 |
118 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-17.81 |
119 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
1 - 9 |
0 - 7 |
-18.19 |
120 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
3 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-18.32 |
121 |
ULL |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
-19.39 |
122 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
1 - 9 |
0 - 6 |
-21.15 |
123 |
Texas St |
SUN |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-22.24 |
124 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
1 - 9 |
1 - 5 |
-23.15 |
125 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
0 - 9 |
0 - 5 |
-23.32 |
126 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
2 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-24.22 |
127 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
1 - 9 |
1 - 5 |
-25.98 |
128 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
0 - 10 |
0 - 6 |
-29.99 |
129 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
2 - 8 |
0 - 6 |
-32.01 |
130 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
1 - 10 |
0 - 6 |
-33.69 |