Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2019 Week 14 (Through games of 11/23/19)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
11 - 0 |
8 - 0 |
34.66 |
2 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
11 - 0 |
8 - 0 |
28.91 |
3 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
10 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
26.26 |
4 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
11 - 0 |
7 - 0 |
24.07 |
5 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
23.53 |
6 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
23.13 |
7 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
22.92 |
8 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
22.07 |
9 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
21.89 |
10 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
9 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
19.93 |
11 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
8 - 3 |
4 - 3 |
19.17 |
12 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
9 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
18.74 |
13 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
9 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
17.48 |
14 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
8 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
16.94 |
15 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
16.69 |
16 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
16.2 |
17 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
10 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
13.73 |
18 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
10 - 1 |
7 - 1 |
13.6 |
19 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
7 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
13.38 |
20 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
7 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
12.66 |
21 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
8 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
11.12 |
22 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
8 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
10.97 |
23 |
Louisiana |
SUN |
9 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
10.77 |
24 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
10 - 1 |
6 - 1 |
9.28 |
25 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
8 - 4 |
7 - 2 |
9.26 |
26 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
8 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
9.21 |
27 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
8 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
8.7 |
28 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
6 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
8.66 |
29 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
7 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
8.01 |
30 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
10 - 1 |
7 - 0 |
7.93 |
31 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
7.46 |
32 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
6 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
7.33 |
33 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
7 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
7.21 |
34 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
10 - 1 |
7 - 0 |
7.16 |
35 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
9 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
6.61 |
36 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
6 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
6.46 |
37 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
6 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
6.44 |
38 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
6 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
6.38 |
39 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
9 - 2 |
6 - 1 |
6.04 |
40 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
5.67 |
41 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
8 - 3 |
6 - 1 |
5.43 |
42 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
6 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
4.99 |
43 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
4.84 |
44 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
4 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
4.62 |
45 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
8 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
4.58 |
46 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
5 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
4.28 |
47 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
6 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
3.92 |
48 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
6 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
3.38 |
49 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
6 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
3.03 |
50 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
2.92 |
51 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
2.92 |
52 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
4 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
2.37 |
53 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
4 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
2.29 |
54 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
7 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
1.97 |
55 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
5 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
1.66 |
56 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
8 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
1.41 |
57 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
6 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
1.11 |
58 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
4 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
1.08 |
59 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
5 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
0.95 |
60 |
California |
PAC12-N |
6 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
0.93 |
61 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
7 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
0.35 |
62 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
7 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
-0.97 |
63 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
7 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
-1.17 |
64 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
4 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-1.38 |
65 |
BYU |
IND |
7 - 4 |
3 - 0 |
-1.55 |
66 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
4 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-1.75 |
67 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
3 - 8 |
1 - 6 |
-1.88 |
68 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
5 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
-2.27 |
69 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-2.62 |
70 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-2.62 |
71 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-2.64 |
72 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
6 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
-2.68 |
73 |
Army |
IND |
5 - 6 |
3 - 0 |
-3.12 |
74 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-3.16 |
75 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
4 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-3.36 |
76 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
6 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
-3.52 |
77 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
4 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-4.04 |
78 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
8 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
-4.07 |
79 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
5 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
-4.33 |
80 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
2 - 9 |
0 - 8 |
-4.66 |
81 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-4.77 |
82 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
-4.86 |
83 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
3 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
-4.88 |
84 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
8 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
-5.17 |
85 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
8 - 3 |
5 - 2 |
-6.09 |
86 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 4 |
5 - 2 |
-6.61 |
87 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
4 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-6.78 |
88 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-6.8 |
89 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
4 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-7.22 |
90 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
7 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
-7.22 |
91 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
4 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-7.42 |
92 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-7.49 |
93 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
4 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-7.57 |
94 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
6 - 5 |
5 - 2 |
-7.59 |
95 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
6 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
-8.11 |
96 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
7 - 4 |
6 - 1 |
-8.48 |
97 |
Troy |
SUN |
5 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
-8.71 |
98 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
6 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-9.09 |
99 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-9.22 |
100 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
4 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-9.23 |
101 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
5 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
-9.37 |
102 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
2 - 9 |
0 - 7 |
-9.42 |
103 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
4 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-9.84 |
104 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
3 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
-10.48 |
105 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
3 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-10.58 |
106 |
ULM |
SUN |
5 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
-10.89 |
107 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-11.05 |
108 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
4 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-11.49 |
109 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
4 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-11.75 |
110 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
4 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
-11.78 |
111 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
2 - 9 |
2 - 5 |
-11.98 |
112 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-12.35 |
113 |
Liberty |
IND |
6 - 5 |
4 - 1 |
-12.67 |
114 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
6 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-14.37 |
115 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
3 - 8 |
1 - 6 |
-14.56 |
116 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
7 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
-15.1 |
117 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-15.4 |
118 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
2 - 9 |
0 - 8 |
-15.73 |
119 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
3 - 8 |
1 - 6 |
-17.16 |
120 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
1 - 10 |
0 - 7 |
-17.19 |
121 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
4 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-18.09 |
122 |
Texas St |
SUN |
3 - 8 |
2 - 5 |
-18.39 |
123 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
1 - 10 |
0 - 7 |
-18.8 |
124 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
2 - 9 |
0 - 7 |
-19.55 |
125 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
2 - 9 |
0 - 7 |
-22.35 |
126 |
New Mexico St |
IND |
2 - 9 |
1 - 1 |
-23.31 |
127 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
1 - 10 |
0 - 7 |
-26.85 |
128 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
3 - 8 |
2 - 5 |
-28.06 |
129 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
0 - 11 |
0 - 7 |
-33.47 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
1 - 11 |
0 - 4 |
-39.26 |