Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2022 Postseason
NOTE: The conference affiliations got messed up since I generated this during the 2023 season. I am working to correct this.
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Georgia |
SEC |
15 - 0 |
8 - 0 |
29.22 |
2 |
Alabama |
SEC |
11 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
25.19 |
3 |
Ohio St |
Big10 |
11 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
22.33 |
4 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
11 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
20.94 |
5 |
Michigan |
Big10 |
13 - 1 |
10 - 0 |
18.77 |
6 |
Penn St |
Big10 |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
17.67 |
7 |
LSU |
SEC |
10 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
15.89 |
8 |
Clemson |
ACC |
11 - 3 |
2 - 1 |
14.32 |
9 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
8 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
14.02 |
10 |
Utah |
PAC12 |
10 - 4 |
8 - 2 |
13.34 |
11 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
10 - 4 |
8 - 2 |
12.58 |
12 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
13 - 2 |
9 - 1 |
12.1 |
13 |
Florida St |
ACC |
10 - 3 |
2 - 0 |
11.73 |
14 |
Notre Dame |
ACC |
9 - 4 |
1 - 0 |
10.73 |
15 |
Mississippi St |
SEC |
9 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
10.6 |
16 |
Washington |
PAC12 |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
10.28 |
17 |
Oregon |
PAC12 |
10 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
9.87 |
18 |
Oregon St |
PAC12 |
10 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
9.69 |
19 |
USC |
PAC12 |
11 - 3 |
8 - 2 |
9.1 |
20 |
Louisville |
ACC |
8 - 5 |
0 - 2 |
8.55 |
21 |
Iowa |
Big10 |
8 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
8.51 |
22 |
Tulane |
Amer |
12 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
7.75 |
23 |
Florida |
SEC |
6 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
7.38 |
24 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
6 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
7.25 |
25 |
Minnesota |
Big10 |
9 - 4 |
5 - 4 |
6.99 |
26 |
Illinois |
Big10 |
8 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
6.49 |
27 |
Auburn |
SEC |
5 - 7 |
1 - 6 |
6.41 |
28 |
Mississippi |
SEC |
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
6.31 |
29 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
8 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
5.94 |
30 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
8 - 5 |
4 - 3 |
5.65 |
31 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
8 - 5 |
0 - 2 |
5.53 |
32 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
7 - 6 |
3 - 4 |
5.52 |
33 |
Wisconsin |
Big10 |
7 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
5.49 |
34 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
5.34 |
35 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
9 - 4 |
4 - 2 |
5.06 |
36 |
Fresno St |
MWC |
10 - 4 |
8 - 1 |
4.98 |
37 |
UCLA |
PAC12 |
9 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
4.82 |
38 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
7 - 6 |
2 - 5 |
4.81 |
39 |
UCF |
Amer |
9 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
3.98 |
40 |
Boise St |
MWC |
10 - 4 |
8 - 1 |
3.81 |
41 |
Air Force |
MWC |
10 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
3.8 |
42 |
Cincinnati |
Amer |
9 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
3.75 |
43 |
Missouri |
SEC |
6 - 7 |
0 - 0 |
3.68 |
44 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
6 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
3.38 |
45 |
Maryland |
Big10 |
8 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
3.11 |
46 |
Memphis |
Amer |
7 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
2.8 |
47 |
Washington St |
PAC12 |
7 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
2.78 |
48 |
Troy |
CUSA |
12 - 2 |
7 - 1 |
2.64 |
49 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
4 - 8 |
1 - 8 |
2.32 |
50 |
Duke |
ACC |
9 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
2.26 |
51 |
James Madison |
CUSA |
8 - 3 |
6 - 0 |
1.96 |
52 |
UT San Antonio |
|
11 - 3 |
9 - 0 |
1.74 |
53 |
Houston |
Amer |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
1.71 |
54 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
9 - 5 |
5 - 1 |
1.58 |
55 |
NC State |
ACC |
8 - 5 |
1 - 1 |
1.51 |
56 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
7 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
1.31 |
57 |
WKU |
|
9 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
1.29 |
58 |
Michigan St |
Big10 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
0.39 |
59 |
SMU |
Amer |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
0.26 |
60 |
BYU |
IND |
8 - 5 |
1 - 1 |
-0.34 |
61 |
Purdue |
Big10 |
8 - 6 |
6 - 4 |
-0.38 |
62 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-0.84 |
63 |
Marshall |
SUN |
9 - 4 |
1 - 0 |
-0.93 |
64 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
7 - 6 |
2 - 0 |
-0.95 |
65 |
Army |
CUSA |
6 - 6 |
0 - 0 |
-1.38 |
66 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
6 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-1.79 |
67 |
Navy |
Amer |
4 - 8 |
4 - 4 |
-1.87 |
68 |
East Carolina |
Amer |
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-1.92 |
69 |
Appalachian St |
CUSA |
6 - 6 |
3 - 3 |
-2.32 |
70 |
Louisiana |
CUSA |
6 - 7 |
2 - 4 |
-2.5 |
71 |
Nebraska |
Big10 |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-2.51 |
72 |
Ohio |
MAC |
10 - 4 |
7 - 2 |
-2.52 |
73 |
California |
PAC12 |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-3.85 |
74 |
South Alabama |
CUSA |
10 - 3 |
6 - 1 |
-3.95 |
75 |
Arizona |
PAC12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-3.97 |
76 |
UAB |
|
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-4.03 |
77 |
San Diego St |
MWC |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-4.07 |
78 |
Toledo |
MAC |
9 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
-4.22 |
79 |
Arizona St |
PAC12 |
3 - 9 |
2 - 7 |
-4.48 |
80 |
Indiana |
Big10 |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-5.13 |
81 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
5 - 7 |
2 - 5 |
-5.59 |
82 |
Tulsa |
Amer |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-5.75 |
83 |
Georgia St |
CUSA |
4 - 8 |
2 - 4 |
-5.79 |
84 |
North Texas |
|
7 - 7 |
6 - 3 |
-5.97 |
85 |
Miami FL |
ACC |
5 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-6.2 |
86 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-6.25 |
87 |
FL Atlantic |
|
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-6.4 |
88 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
5 - 7 |
4 - 3 |
-6.5 |
89 |
Liberty |
IND |
8 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
-6.53 |
90 |
E Michigan |
MAC |
9 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
-6.64 |
91 |
San Jose St |
MWC |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-6.79 |
92 |
Stanford |
PAC12 |
3 - 9 |
1 - 8 |
-7.23 |
93 |
Virginia |
ACC |
3 - 7 |
1 - 4 |
-7.27 |
94 |
Kent |
MAC |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-7.49 |
95 |
Northwestern |
Big10 |
1 - 11 |
1 - 8 |
-7.59 |
96 |
Coastal Car |
CUSA |
9 - 4 |
4 - 3 |
-7.64 |
97 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
6 - 7 |
0 - 1 |
-7.73 |
98 |
Wyoming |
MWC |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-7.96 |
99 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
3 - 8 |
0 - 5 |
-8.56 |
100 |
MTSU |
|
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-8.84 |
101 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-8.93 |
102 |
Miami OH |
MAC |
6 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-9.11 |
103 |
Boston College |
ACC |
3 - 9 |
1 - 1 |
-10.02 |
104 |
Utah St |
MWC |
6 - 7 |
5 - 3 |
-10.14 |
105 |
Ball St |
MAC |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-10.33 |
106 |
C Michigan |
MAC |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-11.59 |
107 |
W Michigan |
MAC |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-11.69 |
108 |
Temple |
Amer |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-11.94 |
109 |
Rutgers |
Big10 |
4 - 8 |
1 - 8 |
-11.94 |
110 |
UTEP |
|
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-12.56 |
111 |
UNLV |
MWC |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-12.75 |
112 |
South Florida |
Amer |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-12.79 |
113 |
Connecticut |
IND |
6 - 7 |
3 - 0 |
-13.17 |
114 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA |
3 - 9 |
2 - 4 |
-13.47 |
115 |
N Illinois |
MAC |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-13.91 |
116 |
Colorado St |
MWC |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-14 |
117 |
New Mexico St |
IND |
7 - 6 |
4 - 0 |
-14.22 |
118 |
ULM |
CUSA |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-14.84 |
119 |
Texas St |
CUSA |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-15.05 |
120 |
Arkansas St |
CUSA |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-15.4 |
121 |
Nevada |
MWC |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-15.69 |
122 |
Akron |
MAC |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-15.87 |
123 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
6 - 7 |
5 - 3 |
-15.89 |
124 |
Hawaii |
MWC |
3 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-16.1 |
125 |
Rice |
|
5 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-16.19 |
126 |
Colorado |
PAC12 |
1 - 11 |
1 - 8 |
-16.27 |
127 |
Louisiana Tech |
|
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-16.63 |
128 |
Jacksonville St |
IND |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-16.95 |
129 |
Sam Houston St |
IND |
0 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-16.95 |
130 |
Charlotte |
|
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-19.08 |
131 |
New Mexico |
MWC |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-21.33 |
132 |
Florida Intl |
|
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-24.12 |
133 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
1 - 11 |
1 - 3 |
-25.69 |