Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2021 Postseason
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
14 - 1 |
9 - 1 |
28.26 |
2 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
13 - 2 |
8 - 2 |
24.87 |
3 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
11 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
23.11 |
4 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
12 - 2 |
9 - 1 |
19.26 |
5 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
12 - 2 |
8 - 2 |
17.64 |
6 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
11 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
16.12 |
7 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
14.39 |
8 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
14.14 |
9 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
12 - 2 |
8 - 2 |
13.97 |
10 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
10 - 4 |
9 - 1 |
13.95 |
11 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
9 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
13.9 |
12 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
13 - 1 |
9 - 0 |
13.31 |
13 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
7 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
12.71 |
14 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
11.38 |
15 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
10.42 |
16 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
9.88 |
17 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
10 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
9.45 |
18 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
8 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
9.28 |
19 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
9 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
8.95 |
20 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
9 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
8.92 |
21 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
6 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
8.78 |
22 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
9 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
8.55 |
23 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
8.34 |
24 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
7.88 |
25 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
7.82 |
26 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
11 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
7.67 |
27 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
10 - 4 |
7 - 3 |
7.45 |
28 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
7.4 |
29 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
6 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
6.75 |
30 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
6.47 |
31 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
6.36 |
32 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
11 - 3 |
7 - 3 |
6.3 |
33 |
Louisiana |
SUN |
13 - 1 |
9 - 0 |
6.26 |
34 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 8 |
6.22 |
35 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
10 - 4 |
7 - 2 |
6.05 |
36 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
5.9 |
37 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
12 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
5.42 |
38 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
9 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
5.05 |
39 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
10 - 4 |
7 - 3 |
4.62 |
40 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
6 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
4.39 |
41 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
4.33 |
42 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
7 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
4.18 |
43 |
BYU |
IND |
10 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
4.15 |
44 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
8 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
3.72 |
45 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
7 - 6 |
6 - 3 |
3.4 |
46 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
6 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
3.16 |
47 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
12 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
2.6 |
48 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
2.58 |
49 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
2.33 |
50 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
6 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
2 |
51 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
1.76 |
52 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
11 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
1.74 |
53 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
9 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
1.61 |
54 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
1.57 |
55 |
Army |
IND |
9 - 4 |
4 - 0 |
1.03 |
56 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
11 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
0.83 |
57 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
8 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
0.8 |
58 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
6 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
0.72 |
59 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
7 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
0.64 |
60 |
Liberty |
IND |
8 - 5 |
2 - 1 |
0.6 |
61 |
UAB |
CUSA-W |
9 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
0.38 |
62 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
7 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
0.32 |
63 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-0.32 |
64 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
-0.33 |
65 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
12 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
-0.62 |
66 |
California |
PAC12-N |
5 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
-0.84 |
67 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-1.39 |
68 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
6 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-1.45 |
69 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-1.68 |
70 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-1.74 |
71 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-1.78 |
72 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
7 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
-1.9 |
73 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
9 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-1.98 |
74 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-2.1 |
75 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-2.13 |
76 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
8 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
-2.14 |
77 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
8 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-2.29 |
78 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-2.51 |
79 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-2.89 |
80 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-2.93 |
81 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
7 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-3.96 |
82 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
7 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
-4.6 |
83 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-5.1 |
84 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
6 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-5.54 |
85 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
6 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
-5.72 |
86 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-5.76 |
87 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-5.9 |
88 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-6.29 |
89 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
6 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-6.81 |
90 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-7.59 |
91 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
6 - 7 |
5 - 3 |
-7.79 |
92 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 8 |
-7.83 |
93 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
9 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
-7.96 |
94 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
3 - 9 |
2 - 7 |
-8.34 |
95 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
2 - 10 |
0 - 9 |
-8.66 |
96 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
5 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-8.95 |
97 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-9.38 |
98 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
6 - 7 |
5 - 3 |
-9.66 |
99 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-9.9 |
100 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
6 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-10.14 |
101 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-10.22 |
102 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-10.51 |
103 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
1 - 11 |
1 - 8 |
-10.83 |
104 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
7 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-11.09 |
105 |
Troy |
SUN |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-11.25 |
106 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-11.35 |
107 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
2 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-11.38 |
108 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-11.67 |
109 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-11.89 |
110 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
7 - 7 |
6 - 3 |
-12.09 |
111 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
2 - 10 |
1 - 8 |
-12.78 |
112 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-12.87 |
113 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-12.87 |
114 |
ULM |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-13.48 |
115 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-13.68 |
116 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-14.14 |
117 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-15.13 |
118 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-16.43 |
119 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-16.51 |
120 |
Texas St |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-16.54 |
121 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-17.85 |
122 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-18.29 |
123 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-19.39 |
124 |
New Mexico St |
IND |
2 - 10 |
2 - 0 |
-20.21 |
125 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
3 - 9 |
0 - 8 |
-20.34 |
126 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-22.53 |
127 |
Connecticut |
IND |
1 - 11 |
1 - 3 |
-24.68 |
128 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-26 |
129 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-27.01 |
130 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
1 - 11 |
1 - 5 |
-28.62 |