Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2016 After Week 2 (9/11/2016)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
32.49 |
2 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
29.08 |
3 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
18.01 |
4 |
Stanford |
PAC12-N |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
16.64 |
5 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
16.23 |
6 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
16.22 |
7 |
Oregon |
PAC12-N |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15.68 |
8 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15.49 |
9 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
15.13 |
10 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
14.66 |
11 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
14.53 |
12 |
Washington |
PAC12-N |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
14.17 |
13 |
Oklahoma |
BIG12 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
13.41 |
14 |
Houston |
AAC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
13.39 |
15 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
12.97 |
16 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
12.41 |
17 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
12.35 |
18 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
12.3 |
19 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
11.48 |
20 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
11.11 |
21 |
USC |
PAC12-S |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
10.92 |
22 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
10.7 |
23 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
10.69 |
24 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
10.27 |
25 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
10.03 |
26 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
1 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
8.87 |
27 |
Arizona St |
PAC12-S |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
8.86 |
28 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
8.8 |
29 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
8.68 |
30 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
8.31 |
31 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
8.12 |
32 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
8.08 |
33 |
Texas |
BIG12 |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
7.16 |
34 |
Utah |
PAC12-S |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
7.08 |
35 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
6.66 |
36 |
UCLA |
PAC12-S |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
6.25 |
37 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
1 - 1 |
1 - 0 |
5.43 |
38 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
5.06 |
39 |
BYU |
IND |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
4.47 |
40 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
4.43 |
41 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
4.27 |
42 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
4.11 |
43 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
1 - 1 |
1 - 1 |
4.05 |
44 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
3.98 |
45 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3.95 |
46 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3.92 |
47 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3.82 |
48 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3.67 |
49 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
3.45 |
50 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3.29 |
51 |
Cincinnati |
AAC-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
3.2 |
52 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
2.99 |
53 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
2.73 |
54 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
2.35 |
55 |
Arizona |
PAC12-S |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
2.15 |
56 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
1.97 |
57 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
1.69 |
58 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
1.31 |
59 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
1.29 |
60 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
1.27 |
61 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0.83 |
62 |
California |
PAC12-N |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
0.78 |
63 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
0.47 |
64 |
Marshall |
CUSA-E |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0.26 |
65 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
0.07 |
66 |
Colorado |
PAC12-S |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-0.75 |
67 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
-0.93 |
68 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-1.15 |
69 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-1.28 |
70 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-1.3 |
71 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-2.66 |
72 |
Connecticut |
AAC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
-2.78 |
73 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-2.78 |
74 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-2.85 |
75 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-2.98 |
76 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
-3.48 |
77 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-3.89 |
78 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
2 - 0 |
1 - 0 |
-4.21 |
79 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-4.57 |
80 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-4.77 |
81 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-4.78 |
82 |
Troy |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-4.95 |
83 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-5.51 |
84 |
Army |
IND |
2 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-5.7 |
85 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-N |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-6.15 |
86 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
-6.76 |
87 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-7.9 |
88 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-7.92 |
89 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 1 |
-7.96 |
90 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
0 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
-8.53 |
91 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-8.77 |
92 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-10.12 |
93 |
UCF |
AAC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-10.55 |
94 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-10.59 |
95 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-10.8 |
96 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-11.31 |
97 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-11.43 |
98 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-11.7 |
99 |
SMU |
AAC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-12.7 |
100 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-13.08 |
101 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-13.11 |
102 |
Rice |
CUSA-W |
0 - 2 |
0 - 1 |
-13.68 |
103 |
ULL |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-14.78 |
104 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-14.79 |
105 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-15.13 |
106 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
0 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-15.16 |
107 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-15.31 |
108 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-15.74 |
109 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-16.16 |
110 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-16.31 |
111 |
FL Atlantic |
CUSA-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-16.36 |
112 |
Texas St |
SUN |
1 - 0 |
0 - 0 |
-16.79 |
113 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-16.88 |
114 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-16.92 |
115 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-17.18 |
116 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-17.24 |
117 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-18.3 |
118 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-18.42 |
119 |
ULM |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-18.44 |
120 |
Idaho |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-18.63 |
121 |
North Texas |
CUSA-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-19.73 |
122 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
0 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-20.01 |
123 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
1 - 2 |
0 - 0 |
-20.34 |
124 |
UT San Antonio |
CUSA-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-20.85 |
125 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-20.96 |
126 |
New Mexico St |
SUN |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-23.53 |
127 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-26.58 |
128 |
Charlotte |
CUSA-E |
1 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
-32.8 |