Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2024 Bowl Season
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
11 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
23.35 |
2 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
22.31 |
3 |
Texas |
SEC-W |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
20.8 |
4 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
20.6 |
5 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
11 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
20.54 |
6 |
Oregon |
BIG10-W |
13 - 0 |
10 - 0 |
18.7 |
7 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
17.82 |
8 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
17.27 |
9 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
11 - 2 |
8 - 2 |
16.63 |
10 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
16.21 |
11 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
11 - 1 |
8 - 1 |
15.58 |
12 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
10 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
14.59 |
13 |
SMU |
ACC-A |
11 - 2 |
8 - 1 |
14.15 |
14 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
13.98 |
15 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
12.93 |
16 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
11.84 |
17 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
8 - 4 |
5 - 3 |
11.81 |
18 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
11.53 |
19 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
11.53 |
20 |
Arizona St |
BIG12 |
11 - 2 |
8 - 2 |
10.3 |
21 |
USC |
BIG10-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
9.7 |
22 |
Colorado |
BIG12 |
9 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
9.4 |
23 |
Oklahoma |
SEC-W |
6 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
9.29 |
24 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
9.19 |
25 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
9.11 |
26 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
7 - 5 |
5 - 4 |
8.32 |
27 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
10 - 3 |
7 - 3 |
8.13 |
28 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
8 - 4 |
6 - 4 |
8.08 |
29 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
8 - 4 |
6 - 4 |
8.02 |
30 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
7.75 |
31 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
9 - 4 |
7 - 2 |
7.47 |
32 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
12 - 1 |
8 - 0 |
7.43 |
33 |
BYU |
BIG12 |
10 - 2 |
7 - 2 |
7.01 |
34 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
6.81 |
35 |
Army |
AAC-E |
11 - 1 |
9 - 0 |
6.25 |
36 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
6.01 |
37 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
5.64 |
38 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
8 - 4 |
6 - 3 |
5.61 |
39 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
5.32 |
40 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
4 - 5 |
4.66 |
41 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
9 - 3 |
6 - 3 |
4.59 |
42 |
Washington |
BIG10-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 5 |
4.33 |
43 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
4.12 |
44 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 6 |
3.97 |
45 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
4 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
3.87 |
46 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
3.46 |
47 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
3.14 |
48 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
3.12 |
49 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
9 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
2.89 |
50 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
10 - 2 |
6 - 2 |
2.87 |
51 |
UCLA |
BIG10-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
2.72 |
52 |
Marshall |
SUN |
10 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
2.7 |
53 |
Utah |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 7 |
2.69 |
54 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
10 - 3 |
8 - 1 |
2.42 |
55 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
7 - 5 |
3 - 5 |
1.65 |
56 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
1.54 |
57 |
Cincinnati |
BIG12 |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
1.39 |
58 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
7 - 5 |
4 - 5 |
1.34 |
59 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
1.27 |
60 |
UCF |
BIG12 |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
1.17 |
61 |
James Madison |
SUN |
8 - 4 |
4 - 4 |
1.04 |
62 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
10 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
0.62 |
63 |
Louisiana |
SUN |
10 - 3 |
7 - 2 |
0.42 |
64 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
8 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
0.35 |
65 |
California |
ACC-C |
6 - 6 |
2 - 6 |
0.33 |
66 |
Texas St |
SUN |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
0.02 |
67 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
2 - 10 |
0 - 8 |
-0.76 |
68 |
Jacksonville St |
CUSA-E |
9 - 4 |
8 - 1 |
-1.06 |
69 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
6 - 6 |
5 - 4 |
-1.62 |
70 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-1.94 |
71 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
6 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-2.11 |
72 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
8 - 4 |
0 - 1 |
-2.19 |
73 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-2.33 |
74 |
Old Dominion |
SUN |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-3.25 |
75 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
8 - 5 |
7 - 2 |
-3.42 |
76 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
4 - 8 |
1 - 8 |
-3.73 |
77 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-4.01 |
78 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
2 - 10 |
1 - 7 |
-4.23 |
79 |
Houston |
BIG12 |
4 - 8 |
3 - 6 |
-4.41 |
80 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 3 |
-4.44 |
81 |
UT San Antonio |
AAC-W |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-4.46 |
82 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
5 - 7 |
3 - 6 |
-4.99 |
83 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
5 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-5.15 |
84 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
8 - 4 |
6 - 1 |
-5.63 |
85 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
5 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-5.83 |
86 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
3 - 9 |
0 - 9 |
-5.99 |
87 |
Connecticut |
IND |
8 - 4 |
2 - 0 |
-6.05 |
88 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
7 - 5 |
6 - 2 |
-6.31 |
89 |
Liberty |
CUSA-E |
8 - 3 |
5 - 3 |
-6.32 |
90 |
Stanford |
ACC-C |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-6.38 |
91 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
7 - 5 |
3 - 4 |
-6.39 |
92 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-6.43 |
93 |
Troy |
SUN |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-6.46 |
94 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
4 - 8 |
2 - 7 |
-6.52 |
95 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-6.6 |
96 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-6.9 |
97 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
7 - 5 |
4 - 4 |
-7.25 |
98 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
6 - 6 |
4 - 4 |
-7.36 |
99 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
8 - 5 |
6 - 3 |
-7.39 |
100 |
Arizona |
BIG12 |
4 - 8 |
2 - 8 |
-7.74 |
101 |
Sam Houston St |
CUSA-W |
9 - 3 |
6 - 2 |
-8.27 |
102 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-S |
5 - 7 |
1 - 0 |
-8.4 |
103 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
8 - 4 |
6 - 2 |
-8.5 |
104 |
North Texas |
AAC-W |
6 - 6 |
3 - 5 |
-8.72 |
105 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
3 - 9 |
2 - 5 |
-9.22 |
106 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
4 - 8 |
3 - 4 |
-9.43 |
107 |
Rice |
AAC-W |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-10.19 |
108 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-10.73 |
109 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-10.77 |
110 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
6 - 6 |
5 - 3 |
-11.39 |
111 |
UAB |
AAC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-11.62 |
112 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
7 - 5 |
5 - 3 |
-11.79 |
113 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
3 - 10 |
0 - 7 |
-11.95 |
114 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
5 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-12.56 |
115 |
ULM |
SUN |
5 - 7 |
3 - 5 |
-12.95 |
116 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
5 - 7 |
3 - 4 |
-13.06 |
117 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-13.64 |
118 |
Charlotte |
AAC-E |
5 - 7 |
4 - 4 |
-13.66 |
119 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 5 |
-14.41 |
120 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
1 - 11 |
0 - 9 |
-14.8 |
121 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
5 - 7 |
2 - 6 |
-14.87 |
122 |
FL Atlantic |
AAC-E |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-14.94 |
123 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
4 - 8 |
3 - 5 |
-15.37 |
124 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-15.83 |
125 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
4 - 8 |
2 - 6 |
-16.47 |
126 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-18.14 |
127 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
2 - 10 |
2 - 1 |
-19.1 |
128 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
3 - 5 |
-19.11 |
129 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-19.85 |
130 |
New Mexico St |
CUSA-W |
3 - 9 |
2 - 6 |
-20.22 |
131 |
Kennesaw |
CUSA-E |
2 - 10 |
2 - 6 |
-21.83 |
132 |
Southern Miss |
SUN |
1 - 11 |
0 - 8 |
-23.62 |
133 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
3 - 9 |
1 - 7 |
-24.33 |
134 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
0 - 12 |
0 - 8 |
-27.5 |