Bryan Wilson Empirical Ratings
College Football Ratings
NOTE: The "Rk Points" Column provides a predictive value for each team in future games.
To make a game prediction, subtract the values of the two teams involved to predict winner
and margin of victory. Add 3.4 points to the home team, if there is one.
You can estimate chances of an upset by finding the point difference in this table:
Point Difference |
Upset Percentage |
1 |
47 |
2 |
44 |
3 |
41 |
4 |
38 |
5 |
35 |
6 |
32 |
7 |
29 |
8 |
26 |
9 |
24 |
10 |
22 |
15 |
12 |
20 |
6 |
25 |
2.5 |
30 |
1 |
PREVIOUS YEAR RANKINGS
Note: Conference affiliations and conference records on rankings before 2014 may be wrong because they were generated
after-the-fact using conference standings in the 2014 season.
2023 Postseason
2022 Postseason
2021 Postseason
2020 Postseason
2019 Postseason
2018 Postseason
2017 Postseason
2016 Postseason
2015 Postseason
2014 Postseason
2013 Postseason
2012 Postseason
2011 Postseason
2010 Postseason
2009 Postseason
2008 Postseason
2007 Postseason
2006 Postseason
2005 Postseason
Archived Rankings by Week (2015-2019)
SYSTEM RANKINGS
2024 Week 11 (through games of 11/2/24)
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Conf Record |
Rk Points |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC-W |
6 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
24 |
2 |
Ohio St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
23.88 |
3 |
Georgia |
SEC-E |
7 - 1 |
5 - 1 |
23 |
4 |
Texas |
SEC-W |
7 - 1 |
3 - 1 |
20.03 |
5 |
Oregon |
BIG10-W |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
20.02 |
6 |
Notre Dame |
IND |
7 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
19.95 |
7 |
Mississippi |
SEC-W |
7 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
19.64 |
8 |
Tennessee |
SEC-E |
7 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
18.54 |
9 |
LSU |
SEC-W |
6 - 2 |
3 - 1 |
17.85 |
10 |
Indiana |
BIG10-E |
9 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
16.78 |
11 |
Penn St |
BIG10-E |
7 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
16.33 |
12 |
South Carolina |
SEC-E |
5 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
15.91 |
13 |
Miami FL |
ACC-C |
9 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
14.38 |
14 |
Clemson |
ACC-A |
6 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
13.74 |
15 |
Texas A&M |
SEC-W |
7 - 2 |
5 - 1 |
13.36 |
16 |
Iowa |
BIG10-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
13.11 |
17 |
Iowa St |
BIG12 |
7 - 1 |
4 - 1 |
12.74 |
18 |
SMU |
ACC-A |
8 - 1 |
5 - 0 |
12.09 |
19 |
Florida |
SEC-E |
4 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
11.64 |
20 |
Louisville |
ACC-A |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
11.3 |
21 |
Boise St |
MWC-M |
7 - 1 |
4 - 0 |
10.54 |
22 |
BYU |
BIG12 |
8 - 0 |
5 - 0 |
10.12 |
23 |
Kansas St |
BIG12 |
7 - 2 |
5 - 2 |
9.46 |
24 |
USC |
BIG10-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 5 |
9.15 |
25 |
Minnesota |
BIG10-W |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
8.79 |
26 |
Cincinnati |
BIG12 |
5 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
8.64 |
27 |
Oklahoma |
SEC-W |
5 - 4 |
1 - 4 |
8.56 |
28 |
Tulane |
AAC-W |
7 - 2 |
5 - 0 |
8.07 |
29 |
Michigan |
BIG10-E |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
8.03 |
30 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC-C |
7 - 1 |
3 - 1 |
7.34 |
31 |
Wisconsin |
BIG10-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
7.33 |
32 |
Washington |
BIG10-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
6.94 |
33 |
Colorado |
BIG12 |
6 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
6.6 |
34 |
UCF |
BIG12 |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
6.35 |
35 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC-C |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
6.12 |
36 |
North Carolina |
ACC-C |
5 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
5.82 |
37 |
Arkansas |
SEC-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
5.7 |
38 |
Kentucky |
SEC-E |
3 - 6 |
1 - 6 |
5.69 |
39 |
California |
ACC-C |
4 - 4 |
0 - 4 |
5.67 |
40 |
Missouri |
SEC-E |
6 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
4.89 |
41 |
Auburn |
SEC-W |
3 - 6 |
1 - 5 |
4.73 |
42 |
Baylor |
BIG12 |
5 - 4 |
3 - 4 |
4.58 |
43 |
Texas Tech |
BIG12 |
6 - 3 |
4 - 2 |
4.57 |
44 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC-E |
6 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
4.38 |
45 |
Arizona St |
BIG12 |
6 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
4.04 |
46 |
Army |
AAC-E |
8 - 0 |
6 - 0 |
3.61 |
47 |
Washington St |
PAC12-N |
7 - 1 |
0 - 0 |
3.51 |
48 |
James Madison |
SUN |
6 - 2 |
2 - 2 |
3.23 |
49 |
TCU |
BIG12 |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
3.22 |
50 |
UCLA |
BIG10-W |
3 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
3.1 |
51 |
Illinois |
BIG10-W |
6 - 3 |
3 - 3 |
2.82 |
52 |
Kansas |
BIG12 |
2 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
2.27 |
53 |
Nebraska |
BIG10-W |
5 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
2.25 |
54 |
Duke |
ACC-C |
6 - 3 |
2 - 3 |
2.12 |
55 |
UNLV |
MWC-W |
6 - 2 |
2 - 1 |
2.05 |
56 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC-C |
5 - 4 |
3 - 3 |
1.95 |
57 |
West Virginia |
BIG12 |
4 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
1.81 |
58 |
Maryland |
BIG10-E |
4 - 4 |
1 - 4 |
0.71 |
59 |
Michigan St |
BIG10-E |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
0.49 |
60 |
Louisiana |
SUN |
7 - 1 |
4 - 0 |
0.3 |
61 |
Syracuse |
ACC-A |
6 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
0.27 |
62 |
Utah |
BIG12 |
4 - 4 |
2 - 4 |
0.17 |
63 |
NC State |
ACC-A |
5 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
0.03 |
64 |
Houston |
BIG12 |
4 - 5 |
3 - 3 |
-0.62 |
65 |
Navy |
AAC-W |
6 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
-0.95 |
66 |
Memphis |
AAC-W |
7 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
-0.99 |
67 |
WKU |
CUSA-E |
6 - 2 |
4 - 0 |
-1.31 |
68 |
Florida St |
ACC-A |
1 - 8 |
1 - 7 |
-1.34 |
69 |
Oklahoma St |
BIG12 |
3 - 6 |
0 - 6 |
-1.61 |
70 |
Boston College |
ACC-A |
4 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
-1.72 |
71 |
Northwestern |
BIG10-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 4 |
-1.83 |
72 |
South Alabama |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
-1.9 |
73 |
Mississippi St |
SEC-W |
2 - 7 |
0 - 5 |
-2.06 |
74 |
Virginia |
ACC-C |
4 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
-2.22 |
75 |
Texas St |
SUN |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-2.42 |
76 |
Marshall |
SUN |
5 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
-2.52 |
77 |
Wake Forest |
ACC-A |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-3 |
78 |
Miami OH |
MAC-E |
4 - 4 |
3 - 1 |
-3.03 |
79 |
Jacksonville St |
CUSA-E |
5 - 3 |
4 - 0 |
-3.4 |
80 |
Ga Southern |
SUN |
6 - 3 |
4 - 1 |
-3.52 |
81 |
Oregon St |
PAC12-S |
4 - 4 |
0 - 0 |
-3.64 |
82 |
Fresno St |
MWC-W |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-3.86 |
83 |
Rutgers |
BIG10-E |
4 - 4 |
1 - 4 |
-4 |
84 |
Old Dominion |
SUN |
4 - 5 |
3 - 2 |
-4.45 |
85 |
Connecticut |
IND |
6 - 3 |
1 - 0 |
-5.76 |
86 |
Ohio |
MAC-E |
5 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
-5.87 |
87 |
North Texas |
AAC-W |
5 - 3 |
2 - 2 |
-5.93 |
88 |
Appalachian St |
SUN |
4 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
-6.65 |
89 |
Arizona |
BIG12 |
3 - 6 |
1 - 6 |
-7.02 |
90 |
Toledo |
MAC-W |
6 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
-7.06 |
91 |
Bowling Green |
MAC-E |
4 - 4 |
3 - 1 |
-7.55 |
92 |
Sam Houston St |
CUSA-W |
7 - 2 |
4 - 1 |
-7.9 |
93 |
Troy |
SUN |
2 - 7 |
1 - 4 |
-8.03 |
94 |
Colorado St |
MWC-M |
6 - 3 |
4 - 0 |
-8.15 |
95 |
South Florida |
AAC-E |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-8.33 |
96 |
San Jose St |
MWC-W |
5 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
-8.4 |
97 |
Liberty |
CUSA-E |
5 - 2 |
3 - 2 |
-8.59 |
98 |
Coastal Car |
SUN |
4 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
-8.75 |
99 |
N Illinois |
MAC-W |
4 - 4 |
1 - 3 |
-9.02 |
100 |
Rice |
AAC-W |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-9.3 |
101 |
UT San Antonio |
AAC-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-9.44 |
102 |
W Michigan |
MAC-W |
5 - 3 |
4 - 0 |
-9.53 |
103 |
East Carolina |
AAC-E |
4 - 4 |
2 - 2 |
-9.73 |
104 |
San Diego St |
MWC-W |
3 - 5 |
2 - 1 |
-9.75 |
105 |
Georgia St |
SUN |
2 - 6 |
0 - 4 |
-9.87 |
106 |
Hawaii |
MWC-W |
4 - 5 |
2 - 2 |
-10.06 |
107 |
Purdue |
BIG10-W |
1 - 7 |
0 - 5 |
-10.16 |
108 |
ULM |
SUN |
5 - 3 |
3 - 2 |
-10.21 |
109 |
Stanford |
ACC-C |
2 - 7 |
1 - 5 |
-10.58 |
110 |
Arkansas St |
SUN |
5 - 3 |
3 - 1 |
-11.53 |
111 |
Nevada |
MWC-W |
3 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-12.64 |
112 |
Charlotte |
AAC-E |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-12.69 |
113 |
Buffalo |
MAC-E |
5 - 4 |
3 - 2 |
-12.99 |
114 |
Air Force |
MWC-M |
1 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-13.14 |
115 |
E Michigan |
MAC-W |
5 - 4 |
2 - 3 |
-13.14 |
116 |
UAB |
AAC-W |
2 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-13.22 |
117 |
Wyoming |
MWC-M |
2 - 7 |
2 - 3 |
-13.29 |
118 |
FL Atlantic |
AAC-E |
2 - 6 |
0 - 4 |
-14.36 |
119 |
Florida Intl |
CUSA-E |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-15.37 |
120 |
Ball St |
MAC-W |
3 - 5 |
2 - 2 |
-15.58 |
121 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA-W |
3 - 5 |
2 - 3 |
-15.79 |
122 |
Utah St |
MWC-M |
2 - 6 |
1 - 3 |
-16.09 |
123 |
New Mexico |
MWC-M |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-16.8 |
124 |
MTSU |
CUSA-E |
3 - 6 |
2 - 3 |
-17.49 |
125 |
C Michigan |
MAC-W |
3 - 5 |
1 - 3 |
-17.63 |
126 |
Temple |
AAC-E |
2 - 6 |
1 - 3 |
-18.27 |
127 |
Southern Miss |
SUN |
1 - 7 |
0 - 4 |
-18.7 |
128 |
Akron |
MAC-E |
2 - 7 |
1 - 4 |
-19.61 |
129 |
UTEP |
CUSA-W |
1 - 8 |
1 - 5 |
-19.66 |
130 |
Kennesaw |
CUSA-E |
1 - 7 |
1 - 3 |
-21.04 |
131 |
Tulsa |
AAC-W |
3 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-21.28 |
132 |
New Mexico St |
CUSA-W |
2 - 6 |
1 - 4 |
-23.48 |
133 |
Kent |
MAC-E |
0 - 8 |
0 - 4 |
-24.04 |
134 |
Massachusetts |
IND |
2 - 7 |
2 - 0 |
-25.69 |