2016 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 42 - FCS Team 17 Air Force 37 - FCS Team 21
Akron 31 - FCS Team 14 Akron 47 - FCS Team 24
Alabama 38 - Southern California 24 0.816 Alabama 52 - Southern California 6 -32
Arizona 34 - Brigham Young 35 0.543 Arizona 16 - Brigham Young 18 1
Arizona State 55 - FCS Team 17 Arizona State 44 - FCS Team 13
Arkansas 41 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.796 Arkansas 21 - Louisiana Tech 20 16
Arkansas State 31 - Toledo 34 0.548 Arkansas State 10 - Toledo 31 18
Auburn 34 - Clemson 35 0.55 Auburn 13 - Clemson 19 5
Baylor 59 - FCS Team 17 Baylor 55 - FCS Team 7
Boston College 20 - Georgia Tech 27 0.719 Boston College 14 - Georgia Tech 17 -4
Buffalo 35 - FCS Team 20 Buffalo 16 - FCS Team 22
Central Florida 35 - FCS Team 17 Central Florida 38 - FCS Team 0
Central Michigan 38 - FCS Team 14 Central Michigan 49 - FCS Team 3
Cincinnati 45 - FCS Team 14 Cincinnati 28 - FCS Team 7
Colorado 27 - Colorado State 28 0.527 Colorado 44 - Colorado State 7 -38
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 10 Connecticut 24 - FCS Team 21
Duke 48 - FCS Team 17 Duke 49 - FCS Team 6
East Carolina 42 - FCS Team 17 East Carolina 52 - FCS Team 7
Eastern Michigan 34 - FCS Team 27 Eastern Michigan 61 - FCS Team 14
Florida 38 - Massachusetts 6 0.969 Florida 24 - Massachusetts 7 15
Florida Atlantic 34 - FCS Team 17 Florida Atlantic 38 - FCS Team 30
Florida International 27 - Indiana 35 0.711 Florida International 13 - Indiana 34 13
Florida State 29 - Mississippi 28 0.517 Florida State 45 - Mississippi 34 -10
Georgia Southern 45 - FCS Team 13 Georgia Southern 54 - FCS Team 0
Georgia State 23 - Ball State 24 0.522 Georgia State 21 - Ball State 31 9
Hawaii 21 - California 42 0.903 Hawaii 31 - California 51 -1
Houston 28 - Oklahoma 35 0.644 Houston 33 - Oklahoma 23 -17
Idaho 35 - FCS Team 27 Idaho 20 - FCS Team 17
Illinois 41 - FCS Team 14 Illinois 52 - FCS Team 3
Iowa 35 - Miami OH 10 0.981 Iowa 45 - Miami OH 21 1
Iowa State 42 - FCS Team 17 Iowa State 20 - FCS Team 25
Kansas 34 - FCS Team 21 Kansas 55 - FCS Team 6
Kentucky 34 - Southern Miss 27 0.651 Kentucky 35 - Southern Miss 44 16
Louisiana Lafayette 20 - Boise State 35 0.801 Louisiana Lafayette 10 - Boise State 45 20
Louisiana Monroe 31 - FCS Team 20 Louisiana Monroe 38 - FCS Team 21
Louisville 45 - Charlotte 6 0.992 Louisville 70 - Charlotte 14 -17
Maryland 42 - FCS Team 17 Maryland 52 - FCS Team 13
Memphis 45 - FCS Team 14 Memphis 35 - FCS Team 17
Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 13 Miami FL 70 - FCS Team 3
Michigan 41 - Hawaii 7 0.974 Michigan 63 - Hawaii 3 -26
Michigan State 49 - FCS Team 6 Michigan State 28 - FCS Team 13
Middle Tennessee 38 - FCS Team 17 Middle Tennessee 55 - FCS Team 0
Minnesota 31 - Oregon State 21 0.735 Minnesota 30 - Oregon State 23 3
Miss State 42 - South Alabama 13 0.975 Miss State 20 - South Alabama 21 30
Navy 45 - FCS Team 13 Navy 52 - FCS Team 16
NC State 48 - FCS Team 17 NC State 48 - FCS Team 14
Nebraska 42 - Fresno State 21 0.878 Nebraska 43 - Fresno State 10 -12
Nevada 41 - FCS Team 17 Nevada 30 - FCS Team 27
Nevada Las Vegas 38 - FCS Team 24 Nevada Las Vegas 63 - FCS Team 13
New Mexico 38 - FCS Team 20 New Mexico 48 - FCS Team 21
North Carolina 31 - Georgia 38 0.674 North Carolina 24 - Georgia 33 2
North Texas 27 - Southern Methodist 24 0.531 North Texas 21 - Southern Methodist 34 16
Northwestern 28 - Western Michigan 24 0.672 Northwestern 21 - Western Michigan 22 5
Ohio 31 - Texas State 14 0.797 Ohio 54 - Texas State 56 19
Ohio State 42 - Bowling Green 20 0.864 Ohio State 77 - Bowling Green 10 -45
Oklahoma State 55 - FCS Team 17 Oklahoma State 61 - FCS Team 7
Old Dominion 38 - FCS Team 27 Old Dominion 54 - FCS Team 21
Oregon 62 - FCS Team 14 Oregon 53 - FCS Team 28
Penn State 27 - Kent State 3 0.895 Penn State 33 - Kent State 13 4
Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 13 Pittsburgh 28 - FCS Team 7
Purdue 42 - FCS Team 21 Purdue 45 - FCS Team 24
San Diego State 41 - FCS Team 10 San Diego State 31 - FCS Team 0
South Florida 41 - FCS Team 13 South Florida 56 - FCS Team 20
Stanford 38 - Kansas State 24 0.806 Stanford 26 - Kansas State 13 1
Syracuse 42 - FCS Team 17 Syracuse 33 - FCS Team 7
Temple 28 - Army 10 0.836 Temple 13 - Army 28 33
Tennessee 34 - Appalachian State 21 0.769 Tennessee 20 - Appalachian State 13 6
Texas 27 - Notre Dame 31 0.587 Texas 50 - Notre Dame 47 -7
Texas AM 35 - UCLA 28 0.66 Texas AM 31 - UCLA 24 0
Texas Christian 52 - FCS Team 10 Texas Christian 59 - FCS Team 41
Texas El Paso 31 - New Mexico St 21 0.749 Texas El Paso 38 - New Mexico St 22 -6
Texas San Antonio 31 - FCS Team 17 Texas San Antonio 26 - FCS Team 13
Texas Tech 55 - FCS Team 27 Texas Tech 69 - FCS Team 17
Troy 35 - FCS Team 20 Troy 57 - FCS Team 17
Tulsa 31 - San Jose State 28 0.572 Tulsa 45 - San Jose State 10 -32
Utah 45 - FCS Team 10 Utah 24 - FCS Team 0
Utah State 41 - FCS Team 10 Utah State 45 - FCS Team 6
Vanderbilt 24 - South Carolina 28 0.637 Vanderbilt 10 - South Carolina 13 -1
Virginia 42 - FCS Team 14 Virginia 20 - FCS Team 37
Virginia Tech 42 - FCS Team 10 Virginia Tech 36 - FCS Team 13
Wake Forest 27 - Tulane 13 0.804 Wake Forest 7 - Tulane 3 10
Washington 35 - Rutgers 20 0.834 Washington 48 - Rutgers 13 -20
Washington State 48 - FCS Team 17 Washington State 42 - FCS Team 45
West Virginia 27 - Missouri 24 0.572 West Virginia 26 - Missouri 11 -12
Western Kentucky 41 - Rice 21 0.855 Western Kentucky 46 - Rice 14 -12
Wisconsin 24 - Louisiana State 28 0.594 Wisconsin 16 - Louisiana State 14 -6
Wyoming 20 - Northern Illinois 31 0.733 Wyoming 40 - Northern Illinois 34 -17


Number of FBS Games: 41
Number Correct: 30 = 73.1%
Expected Number Correct: 30.193 = 73.6%
Average Error: 13.6
Average Signed Error: -1.76

WEEK 2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - Georgia State 14 0.825 Air Force 48 - Georgia State 14 -14
Alabama 49 - Western Kentucky 20 0.967 Alabama 38 - Western Kentucky 10 1
Appalachian State 38 - Old Dominion 17 0.896 Appalachian State 31 - Old Dominion 7 -3
Arizona 48 - FCS Team 14 Arizona 31 - FCS Team 21
Arizona State 52 - Texas Tech 41 0.732 Arizona State 68 - Texas Tech 55 -2
Army 27 - Rice 20 0.685 Army 31 - Rice 14 -10
Auburn 38 - Arkansas State 20 0.853 Auburn 51 - Arkansas State 14 -19
Baylor 52 - Southern Methodist 21 0.96 Baylor 40 - Southern Methodist 13 4
Boise State 35 - Washington State 27 0.729 Boise State 31 - Washington State 28 5
Bowling Green 42 - FCS Team 17 Bowling Green 27 - FCS Team 26
Charlotte 28 - FCS Team 31 Charlotte 47 - FCS Team 14
Clemson 45 - Troy 13 0.97 Clemson 30 - Troy 24 26
Colorado 42 - FCS Team 17 Colorado 56 - FCS Team 7
Colorado State 27 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.711 Colorado State 23 - Texas San Antonio 14 1
Duke 28 - Wake Forest 17 0.767 Duke 14 - Wake Forest 24 21
East Carolina 30 - NC State 31 0.5 East Carolina 33 - NC State 30 -4
Florida 34 - Kentucky 17 0.835 Florida 45 - Kentucky 7 -21
Florida International 20 - Maryland 28 0.708 Florida International 14 - Maryland 41 19
Florida State 55 - FCS Team 7 Florida State 52 - FCS Team 8
Fresno State 35 - FCS Team 20 Fresno State 31 - FCS Team 3
Georgia 52 - FCS Team 7 Georgia 26 - FCS Team 24
Georgia Tech 45 - FCS Team 10 Georgia Tech 35 - FCS Team 10
Hawaii 34 - FCS Team 21 Hawaii 41 - FCS Team 36
Houston 49 - FCS Team 10 Houston 42 - FCS Team 0
Illinois 28 - North Carolina 34 0.647 Illinois 23 - North Carolina 48 19
Indiana 35 - Ball State 24 0.765 Indiana 30 - Ball State 20 1
Iowa 35 - Iowa State 21 0.779 Iowa 42 - Iowa State 3 -25
Kansas 27 - Ohio 28 0.555 Kansas 21 - Ohio 37 15
Kent State 28 - FCS Team 14 Kent State 36 - FCS Team 39
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - FCS Team 17 Louisiana Lafayette 30 - FCS Team 22
Louisiana State 48 - FCS Team 6 Louisiana State 34 - FCS Team 13
Louisiana Tech 45 - FCS Team 13 Louisiana Tech 53 - FCS Team 24
Marshall 42 - FCS Team 10 Marshall 62 - FCS Team 0
Massachusetts 10 - Boston College 27 0.906 Massachusetts 7 - Boston College 26 2
Miami FL 34 - Florida Atlantic 14 0.846 Miami FL 38 - Florida Atlantic 10 -8
Miami OH 31 - FCS Team 20 Miami OH 17 - FCS Team 21
Michigan 41 - Central Florida 13 0.971 Michigan 51 - Central Florida 14 -9
Minnesota 41 - FCS Team 10 Minnesota 52 - FCS Team 28
Miss State 31 - South Carolina 24 0.659 Miss State 27 - South Carolina 14 -6
Mississippi 52 - FCS Team 13 Mississippi 38 - FCS Team 13
Missouri 38 - Eastern Michigan 10 0.987 Missouri 61 - Eastern Michigan 21 -12
Navy 31 - Connecticut 13 0.815 Navy 28 - Connecticut 24 14
Nebraska 41 - Wyoming 20 0.93 Nebraska 52 - Wyoming 17 -14
New Mexico St 24 - New Mexico 34 0.732 New Mexico St 32 - New Mexico 31 -11
North Texas 31 - FCS Team 17 North Texas 41 - FCS Team 20
Northwestern 41 - FCS Team 10 Northwestern 7 - FCS Team 9
Notre Dame 41 - Nevada 21 0.917 Notre Dame 39 - Nevada 10 -9
Ohio State 52 - Tulsa 20 0.95 Ohio State 48 - Tulsa 3 -13
Oklahoma 45 - Louisiana Monroe 10 0.98 Oklahoma 59 - Louisiana Monroe 17 -7
Oklahoma State 41 - Central Michigan 21 0.843 Oklahoma State 27 - Central Michigan 30 23
Oregon 48 - Virginia 24 0.902 Oregon 44 - Virginia 26 6
Pittsburgh 24 - Penn State 21 0.599 Pittsburgh 42 - Penn State 39 0
Purdue 28 - Cincinnati 35 0.657 Purdue 20 - Cincinnati 38 11
Rutgers 41 - FCS Team 17 Rutgers 52 - FCS Team 14
San Diego State 34 - California 27 0.655 San Diego State 45 - California 40 2
San Jose State 34 - FCS Team 17 San Jose State 66 - FCS Team 35
South Alabama 20 - Georgia Southern 27 0.629 South Alabama 9 - Georgia Southern 24 8
South Florida 28 - Northern Illinois 21 0.692 South Florida 48 - Northern Illinois 17 -24
Southern California 34 - Utah State 21 0.752 Southern California 45 - Utah State 7 -25
Southern Miss 42 - FCS Team 17 Southern Miss 56 - FCS Team 0
Syracuse 27 - Louisville 34 0.735 Syracuse 28 - Louisville 62 27
Temple 38 - FCS Team 10 Temple 38 - FCS Team 0
Tennessee 28 - Virginia Tech 24 0.666 Tennessee 45 - Virginia Tech 24 -17
Texas 38 - Texas El Paso 14 0.895 Texas 41 - Texas El Paso 7 -10
Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 10 Texas AM 67 - FCS Team 0
Texas Christian 34 - Arkansas 28 0.637 Texas Christian 38 - Arkansas 41 9
Toledo 45 - FCS Team 10 Toledo 45 - FCS Team 3
Tulane 28 - FCS Team 14 Tulane 66 - FCS Team 21
UCLA 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 0.966 UCLA 42 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 7
Utah 28 - Brigham Young 21 0.664 Utah 20 - Brigham Young 19 6
Vanderbilt 27 - Middle Tennessee 20 0.737 Vanderbilt 47 - Middle Tennessee 24 -16
Washington 49 - Idaho 14 0.987 Washington 59 - Idaho 14 -10
West Virginia 49 - FCS Team 13 West Virginia 38 - FCS Team 21
Western Michigan 42 - FCS Team 14 Western Michigan 70 - FCS Team 21
Wisconsin 34 - Akron 6 0.949 Wisconsin 54 - Akron 10 -16


Number of FBS Games: 46
Number Correct: 41 = 89.1%
Expected Number Correct: 36.542 = 79.4%
Average Error: 11.56
Average Signed Error: -1.7

WEEK 3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 24 - Miami FL 21 0.543 Appalachian State 10 - Miami FL 45 38
Arizona 42 - Hawaii 17 0.938 Arizona 47 - Hawaii 28 6
Arkansas 49 - Texas State 20 0.981 Arkansas 42 - Texas State 3 -10
Auburn 31 - Texas AM 27 0.639 Auburn 16 - Texas AM 29 17
Ball State 35 - FCS Team 17 Ball State 41 - FCS Team 14
Bowling Green 41 - Middle Tennessee 31 0.71 Bowling Green 21 - Middle Tennessee 41 30
Brigham Young 28 - UCLA 27 0.549 Brigham Young 14 - UCLA 17 4
California 35 - Texas 38 0.573 California 50 - Texas 43 -10
Central Florida 24 - Maryland 31 0.693 Central Florida 24 - Maryland 30 -1
Central Michigan 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 0.88 Central Michigan 44 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 -6
Charlotte 31 - Eastern Michigan 35 0.582 Charlotte 19 - Eastern Michigan 37 14
Cincinnati 27 - Houston 34 0.686 Cincinnati 16 - Houston 48 25
Clemson 52 - FCS Team 7 Clemson 59 - FCS Team 0
Colorado State 34 - FCS Team 17 Colorado State 47 - FCS Team 21
Connecticut 24 - Virginia 21 0.607 Connecticut 13 - Virginia 10 0
Florida 38 - North Texas 3 0.984 Florida 32 - North Texas 0 3
Georgia Southern 38 - Louisiana Monroe 13 0.905 Georgia Southern 23 - Louisiana Monroe 21 23
Georgia Tech 28 - Vanderbilt 20 0.73 Georgia Tech 38 - Vanderbilt 7 -23
Illinois 27 - Western Michigan 28 0.523 Illinois 10 - Western Michigan 34 23
Iowa 48 - FCS Team 10 Iowa 21 - FCS Team 23
Kansas State 35 - Florida Atlantic 13 0.955 Kansas State 63 - Florida Atlantic 7 -34
Kent State 27 - FCS Team 14 Kent State 27 - FCS Team 7
Kentucky 38 - New Mexico St 20 0.878 Kentucky 62 - New Mexico St 42 -2
Louisiana Lafayette 20 - South Alabama 24 0.59 Louisiana Lafayette 28 - South Alabama 23 -9
Louisiana State 31 - Miss State 20 0.733 Louisiana State 23 - Miss State 20 8
Louisville 34 - Florida State 38 0.646 Louisville 63 - Florida State 10 -57
Marshall 34 - Akron 14 0.847 Marshall 38 - Akron 65 47
Massachusetts 21 - Florida International 17 0.643 Massachusetts 21 - Florida International 13 -4
Memphis 41 - Kansas 13 0.911 Memphis 43 - Kansas 7 -8
Miami OH 20 - Western Kentucky 38 0.902 Miami OH 24 - Western Kentucky 31 -11
Michigan 38 - Colorado 20 0.866 Michigan 45 - Colorado 28 1
Mississippi 24 - Alabama 42 0.825 Mississippi 43 - Alabama 48 -13
Missouri 21 - Georgia 28 0.757 Missouri 27 - Georgia 28 -6
NC State 41 - Old Dominion 17 0.95 NC State 49 - Old Dominion 22 -3
Nebraska 38 - Oregon 41 0.602 Nebraska 35 - Oregon 32 -6
Nevada 28 - Buffalo 20 0.726 Nevada 38 - Buffalo 14 -16
North Carolina 55 - FCS Team 17 North Carolina 56 - FCS Team 28
Northern Illinois 24 - San Diego State 31 0.727 Northern Illinois 28 - San Diego State 42 7
Northwestern 27 - Duke 20 0.715 Northwestern 24 - Duke 13 -4
Notre Dame 27 - Michigan State 31 0.576 Notre Dame 28 - Michigan State 36 4
Oklahoma 31 - Ohio State 42 0.747 Oklahoma 24 - Ohio State 45 10
Oklahoma State 35 - Pittsburgh 34 0.576 Oklahoma State 45 - Pittsburgh 38 -6
Oregon State 41 - FCS Team 17 Oregon State 37 - FCS Team 7
Penn State 27 - Temple 17 0.723 Penn State 34 - Temple 27 3
Rice 20 - Baylor 42 0.95 Rice 10 - Baylor 38 6
Rutgers 34 - New Mexico 17 0.825 Rutgers 37 - New Mexico 28 8
San Jose State 14 - Utah 34 0.846 San Jose State 17 - Utah 34 -3
South Carolina 28 - East Carolina 24 0.72 South Carolina 20 - East Carolina 15 -1
Southern Methodist 35 - FCS Team 20 Southern Methodist 29 - FCS Team 14
Southern Miss 35 - Troy 31 0.605 Southern Miss 31 - Troy 37 10
Stanford 34 - Southern California 24 0.73 Stanford 27 - Southern California 10 -7
Syracuse 24 - South Florida 31 0.718 Syracuse 20 - South Florida 45 18
Tennessee 42 - Ohio 14 0.969 Tennessee 28 - Ohio 19 19
Texas Christian 45 - Iowa State 20 0.888 Texas Christian 41 - Iowa State 20 4
Texas El Paso 17 - Army 24 0.68 Texas El Paso 14 - Army 66 45
Texas San Antonio 20 - Arizona State 45 0.961 Texas San Antonio 28 - Arizona State 32 -21
Texas Tech 43 - Louisiana Tech 42 0.512 Texas Tech 59 - Louisiana Tech 45 -13
Toledo 38 - Fresno State 14 0.94 Toledo 52 - Fresno State 17 -11
Tulane 14 - Navy 31 0.829 Tulane 14 - Navy 21 -10
Tulsa 45 - FCS Team 17 Tulsa 58 - FCS Team 21
Utah State 28 - Arkansas State 27 0.577 Utah State 34 - Arkansas State 20 -13
Virginia Tech 27 - Boston College 20 0.727 Virginia Tech 49 - Boston College 0 -42
Wake Forest 34 - FCS Team 7 Wake Forest 38 - FCS Team 21
Washington 52 - FCS Team 10 Washington 41 - FCS Team 3
Washington State 45 - Idaho 20 0.979 Washington State 56 - Idaho 6 -25
Wisconsin 42 - Georgia State 3 0.988 Wisconsin 23 - Georgia State 17 33
Wyoming 38 - FCS Team 21 Wyoming 45 - FCS Team 22


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 45 = 81.8%
Expected Number Correct: 41.862 = 76.1%
Average Error: 14.2
Average Signed Error: 0.56

WEEK 4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 24 - Appalachian State 27 0.556 Akron 38 - Appalachian State 45 4
Alabama 48 - Kent State 0 0.992 Alabama 48 - Kent State 0 0
Arizona 28 - Washington 38 0.742 Arizona 28 - Washington 35 -3
Arizona State 48 - California 42 0.63 Arizona State 51 - California 41 -4
Arkansas State 38 - FCS Team 20 Arkansas State 23 - FCS Team 28
Auburn 25 - Louisiana State 24 0.508 Auburn 18 - Louisiana State 13 -4
Baylor 41 - Oklahoma State 34 0.734 Baylor 35 - Oklahoma State 24 -4
Boston College 34 - FCS Team 10 Boston College 42 - FCS Team 10
Buffalo 17 - Army 31 0.813 Buffalo 23 - Army 20 -17
Cincinnati 35 - Miami OH 20 0.832 Cincinnati 27 - Miami OH 20 8
Connecticut 27 - Syracuse 20 0.688 Connecticut 24 - Syracuse 31 14
Eastern Michigan 28 - Wyoming 34 0.663 Eastern Michigan 27 - Wyoming 24 -9
Florida Atlantic 20 - Ball State 27 0.696 Florida Atlantic 27 - Ball State 31 -3
Florida International 17 - Central Florida 24 0.74 Florida International 14 - Central Florida 53 32
Fresno State 24 - Tulsa 35 0.781 Fresno State 41 - Tulsa 48 -4
Georgia Tech 24 - Clemson 28 0.54 Georgia Tech 7 - Clemson 26 15
Indiana 24 - Wake Forest 20 0.619 Indiana 28 - Wake Forest 33 9
Iowa State 28 - San Jose State 21 0.7 Iowa State 44 - San Jose State 10 -27
Kansas State 52 - FCS Team 10 Kansas State 35 - FCS Team 0
Kentucky 21 - South Carolina 31 0.76 Kentucky 17 - South Carolina 10 -17
Marshall 27 - Louisville 52 0.856 Marshall 28 - Louisville 59 6
Massachusetts 7 - Miss State 34 0.969 Massachusetts 35 - Miss State 47 -15
Memphis 41 - Bowling Green 21 0.784 Memphis 77 - Bowling Green 3 -54
Michigan 41 - Penn State 21 0.908 Michigan 49 - Penn State 10 -19
Michigan State 28 - Wisconsin 20 0.699 Michigan State 6 - Wisconsin 30 32
Middle Tennessee 31 - Louisiana Tech 34 0.564 Middle Tennessee 38 - Louisiana Tech 34 -7
Minnesota 31 - Colorado State 14 0.818 Minnesota 31 - Colorado State 24 10
Mississippi 38 - Georgia 35 0.562 Mississippi 45 - Georgia 14 -28
Missouri 45 - FCS Team 10 Missouri 79 - FCS Team 0
Nevada Las Vegas 38 - Idaho 27 0.803 Nevada Las Vegas 30 - Idaho 33 14
North Carolina 45 - Pittsburgh 38 0.723 North Carolina 37 - Pittsburgh 36 6
Northern Illinois 41 - FCS Team 17 Northern Illinois 23 - FCS Team 28
Northwestern 24 - Nebraska 28 0.613 Northwestern 13 - Nebraska 24 7
Notre Dame 41 - Duke 24 0.873 Notre Dame 35 - Duke 38 20
Ohio 41 - FCS Team 20 Ohio 37 - FCS Team 21
Old Dominion 20 - Texas San Antonio 24 0.675 Old Dominion 33 - Texas San Antonio 19 -18
Oregon 45 - Colorado 31 0.834 Oregon 38 - Colorado 41 17
Oregon State 21 - Boise State 35 0.79 Oregon State 24 - Boise State 38 0
Purdue 26 - Nevada 27 0.521 Purdue 24 - Nevada 14 -11
Rice 24 - North Texas 13 0.774 Rice 35 - North Texas 42 18
Rutgers 20 - Iowa 34 0.838 Rutgers 7 - Iowa 14 -7
South Alabama 31 - FCS Team 14 South Alabama 41 - FCS Team 40
South Florida 32 - Florida State 31 0.548 South Florida 35 - Florida State 55 21
Southern Methodist 24 - Texas Christian 45 0.875 Southern Methodist 3 - Texas Christian 33 9
Temple 38 - Charlotte 6 0.99 Temple 48 - Charlotte 20 4
Tennessee 21 - Florida 17 0.631 Tennessee 38 - Florida 28 -6
Texas AM 28 - Arkansas 27 0.591 Texas AM 45 - Arkansas 24 -20
Texas El Paso 21 - Southern Miss 34 0.776 Texas El Paso 7 - Southern Miss 34 14
Texas State 17 - Houston 48 0.984 Texas State 3 - Houston 64 30
Troy 45 - New Mexico St 20 0.949 Troy 52 - New Mexico St 6 -21
Tulane 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 0.707 Tulane 41 - Louisiana Lafayette 39 5
UCLA 21 - Stanford 31 0.792 UCLA 13 - Stanford 22 -1
Utah 24 - Southern California 27 0.523 Utah 31 - Southern California 27 -7
Utah State 24 - Air Force 31 0.647 Utah State 20 - Air Force 27 0
Virginia 25 - Central Michigan 24 0.539 Virginia 49 - Central Michigan 35 -13
Virginia Tech 35 - East Carolina 21 0.77 Virginia Tech 54 - East Carolina 17 -23
West Virginia 24 - Brigham Young 17 0.704 West Virginia 35 - Brigham Young 32 4
Western Kentucky 31 - Vanderbilt 21 0.727 Western Kentucky 30 - Vanderbilt 31 11
Western Michigan 28 - Georgia Southern 17 0.732 Western Michigan 49 - Georgia Southern 31 -7


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 36 = 69.2%
Expected Number Correct: 38.083 = 73.2%
Average Error: 12.67
Average Signed Error: -0.75

WEEK 5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Navy 24 0.526 Air Force 28 - Navy 14 -11
Alabama 52 - Kentucky 14 0.992 Alabama 34 - Kentucky 6 10
Appalachian State 31 - Georgia State 14 0.776 Appalachian State 17 - Georgia State 3 3
Arkansas 48 - FCS Team 13 Arkansas 52 - FCS Team 10
Auburn 42 - Louisiana Monroe 10 0.987 Auburn 58 - Louisiana Monroe 7 -19
Ball State 28 - Northern Illinois 27 0.53 Ball State 24 - Northern Illinois 31 8
Boise State 35 - Utah State 17 0.842 Boise State 21 - Utah State 10 7
Boston College 21 - Buffalo 10 0.744 Boston College 35 - Buffalo 3 -21
Bowling Green 34 - Eastern Michigan 27 0.643 Bowling Green 25 - Eastern Michigan 28 10
Brigham Young 27 - Toledo 24 0.63 Brigham Young 55 - Toledo 53 1
California 35 - Utah 38 0.542 California 28 - Utah 23 -8
Central Michigan 28 - Western Michigan 34 0.672 Central Michigan 10 - Western Michigan 49 33
Charlotte 21 - Old Dominion 31 0.761 Charlotte 17 - Old Dominion 52 25
Cincinnati 34 - South Florida 31 0.521 Cincinnati 20 - South Florida 45 28
Clemson 35 - Louisville 34 0.528 Clemson 42 - Louisville 36 -5
Colorado 38 - Oregon State 24 0.835 Colorado 47 - Oregon State 6 -27
Colorado State 28 - Wyoming 20 0.775 Colorado State 17 - Wyoming 38 29
Duke 31 - Virginia 28 0.587 Duke 20 - Virginia 34 17
East Carolina 28 - Central Florida 27 0.597 East Carolina 29 - Central Florida 47 19
Florida International 20 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.549 Florida International 33 - Florida Atlantic 31 -3
Florida State 45 - North Carolina 34 0.701 Florida State 35 - North Carolina 37 13
Georgia 27 - Tennessee 28 0.564 Georgia 31 - Tennessee 34 2
Georgia Tech 25 - Miami FL 24 0.511 Georgia Tech 21 - Miami FL 35 15
Hawaii 24 - Nevada 28 0.656 Hawaii 38 - Nevada 17 -25
Houston 38 - Connecticut 10 0.977 Houston 42 - Connecticut 14 0
Idaho 20 - Troy 38 0.879 Idaho 13 - Troy 34 3
Indiana 24 - Michigan State 31 0.746 Indiana 24 - Michigan State 21 -10
Iowa 24 - Northwestern 13 0.755 Iowa 31 - Northwestern 38 18
Iowa State 24 - Baylor 35 0.78 Iowa State 42 - Baylor 45 -8
Kent State 24 - Akron 28 0.607 Kent State 27 - Akron 31 0
Louisiana State 27 - Missouri 17 0.784 Louisiana State 42 - Missouri 7 -25
Louisiana Tech 35 - Texas El Paso 13 0.894 Louisiana Tech 28 - Texas El Paso 7 1
Maryland 31 - Purdue 21 0.732 Maryland 50 - Purdue 7 -33
Massachusetts 20 - Tulane 24 0.626 Massachusetts 24 - Tulane 31 3
Miami OH 27 - Ohio 28 0.518 Miami OH 7 - Ohio 17 9
Michigan 31 - Wisconsin 24 0.708 Michigan 14 - Wisconsin 7 0
Mississippi 42 - Memphis 35 0.611 Mississippi 48 - Memphis 28 -13
NC State 27 - Wake Forest 24 0.634 NC State 33 - Wake Forest 16 -14
Nebraska 38 - Illinois 14 0.967 Nebraska 31 - Illinois 16 9
Nevada Las Vegas 31 - Fresno State 34 0.53 Nevada Las Vegas 45 - Fresno State 20 -28
New Mexico 31 - San Jose State 24 0.618 New Mexico 48 - San Jose State 41 0
New Mexico St 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 38 0.803 New Mexico St 37 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 -17
North Texas 24 - Middle Tennessee 31 0.716 North Texas 13 - Middle Tennessee 30 10
Ohio State 45 - Rutgers 10 0.988 Ohio State 58 - Rutgers 0 -23
Oklahoma State 38 - Texas 31 0.682 Oklahoma State 49 - Texas 31 -11
Penn State 28 - Minnesota 24 0.614 Penn State 29 - Minnesota 26 1
Pittsburgh 48 - Marshall 34 0.788 Pittsburgh 43 - Marshall 27 -2
South Alabama 14 - San Diego State 28 0.793 South Alabama 42 - San Diego State 24 -32
South Carolina 14 - Texas AM 31 0.895 South Carolina 13 - Texas AM 21 -9
Southern California 41 - Arizona State 34 0.646 Southern California 41 - Arizona State 20 -14
Southern Miss 35 - Rice 17 0.908 Southern Miss 44 - Rice 28 2
Syracuse 31 - Notre Dame 41 0.742 Syracuse 33 - Notre Dame 50 7
Temple 27 - Southern Methodist 17 0.775 Temple 45 - Southern Methodist 20 -15
Texas Christian 33 - Oklahoma 34 0.501 Texas Christian 46 - Oklahoma 52 5
Texas State 35 - FCS Team 27 Texas State 48 - FCS Team 17
Texas Tech 49 - Kansas 31 0.864 Texas Tech 55 - Kansas 19 -18
UCLA 34 - Arizona 24 0.754 UCLA 45 - Arizona 24 -11
Vanderbilt 17 - Florida 24 0.713 Vanderbilt 6 - Florida 13 0
Washington 27 - Stanford 28 0.587 Washington 44 - Stanford 6 -39
Washington State 37 - Oregon 38 0.511 Washington State 51 - Oregon 33 -19
West Virginia 34 - Kansas State 31 0.544 West Virginia 17 - Kansas State 16 2
Western Kentucky 45 - FCS Team 17 Western Kentucky 50 - FCS Team 3


Number of FBS Games: 59
Number Correct: 41 = 69.4%
Expected Number Correct: 41.659 = 70.6%
Average Error: 12.71
Average Signed Error: -2.89

WEEK 6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 31 - Miami OH 24 0.73 Akron 35 - Miami OH 13 -15
Arizona State 34 - UCLA 38 0.606 Arizona State 23 - UCLA 20 -7
Arkansas 24 - Alabama 38 0.852 Arkansas 30 - Alabama 49 5
Arkansas State 24 - Georgia Southern 31 0.638 Arkansas State 27 - Georgia Southern 26 -8
Boston College 10 - Clemson 31 0.876 Boston College 10 - Clemson 56 25
Buffalo 16 - Kent State 17 0.546 Buffalo 20 - Kent State 44 23
Central Michigan 31 - Ball State 21 0.762 Central Michigan 24 - Ball State 21 7
Colorado State 14 - Utah State 24 0.703 Colorado State 31 - Utah State 24 -17
Connecticut 24 - Cincinnati 21 0.553 Connecticut 20 - Cincinnati 9 -8
Duke 28 - Army 21 0.673 Duke 13 - Army 6 0
Eastern Michigan 24 - Toledo 42 0.957 Eastern Michigan 20 - Toledo 35 -3
Florida Atlantic 34 - Charlotte 17 0.838 Florida Atlantic 23 - Charlotte 28 22
Georgia State 31 - Texas State 20 0.735 Georgia State 41 - Texas State 21 -9
Illinois 31 - Purdue 14 0.827 Illinois 31 - Purdue 34 20
Kansas 17 - Texas Christian 42 0.982 Kansas 23 - Texas Christian 24 -24
Kansas State 48 - Texas Tech 38 0.748 Kansas State 44 - Texas Tech 38 4
Kentucky 25 - Vanderbilt 24 0.511 Kentucky 20 - Vanderbilt 13 -6
Louisiana Monroe 31 - Idaho 28 0.56 Louisiana Monroe 31 - Idaho 34 6
Louisiana Tech 28 - Western Kentucky 31 0.564 Louisiana Tech 55 - Western Kentucky 52 -6
Memphis 41 - Temple 21 0.8 Memphis 34 - Temple 27 13
Miami FL 35 - Florida State 31 0.569 Miami FL 19 - Florida State 20 5
Michigan State 28 - Brigham Young 24 0.654 Michigan State 14 - Brigham Young 31 21
Minnesota 24 - Iowa 31 0.691 Minnesota 7 - Iowa 14 0
Miss State 28 - Auburn 34 0.642 Miss State 14 - Auburn 38 18
Navy 20 - Houston 34 0.832 Navy 46 - Houston 40 -20
NC State 38 - Notre Dame 34 0.667 NC State 10 - Notre Dame 3 -3
Nevada 27 - Fresno State 21 0.635 Nevada 27 - Fresno State 22 1
New Mexico 20 - Boise State 41 0.903 New Mexico 21 - Boise State 49 7
North Carolina 37 - Virginia Tech 38 0.54 North Carolina 3 - Virginia Tech 34 30
North Texas 27 - Marshall 34 0.722 North Texas 38 - Marshall 21 -24
Ohio 34 - Bowling Green 20 0.738 Ohio 30 - Bowling Green 24 8
Ohio State 52 - Indiana 14 0.989 Ohio State 38 - Indiana 17 17
Oklahoma State 38 - Iowa State 27 0.778 Oklahoma State 35 - Iowa State 31 7
Old Dominion 28 - Massachusetts 21 0.683 Old Dominion 36 - Massachusetts 16 -13
Oregon 38 - Washington 45 0.638 Oregon 21 - Washington 70 42
Oregon State 31 - California 38 0.731 Oregon State 47 - California 44 -10
Penn State 28 - Maryland 27 0.501 Penn State 38 - Maryland 14 -23
Pittsburgh 30 - Georgia Tech 31 0.527 Pittsburgh 37 - Georgia Tech 34 -4
Rutgers 10 - Michigan 38 0.978 Rutgers 0 - Michigan 78 50
San Diego State 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 0.788 San Diego State 26 - Nevada Las Vegas 7 -5
San Jose State 27 - Hawaii 28 0.538 San Jose State 17 - Hawaii 34 16
South Carolina 24 - Georgia 27 0.627 South Carolina 14 - Georgia 28 11
South Florida 41 - East Carolina 27 0.811 South Florida 38 - East Carolina 22 -2
Southern California 35 - Colorado 31 0.605 Southern California 21 - Colorado 17 0
Stanford 31 - Washington State 28 0.596 Stanford 16 - Washington State 42 29
Texas 31 - Oklahoma 48 0.871 Texas 40 - Oklahoma 45 -12
Texas AM 34 - Tennessee 27 0.696 Texas AM 45 - Tennessee 38 0
Texas El Paso 16 - Florida International 17 0.519 Texas El Paso 21 - Florida International 35 13
Texas San Antonio 17 - Southern Miss 28 0.78 Texas San Antonio 55 - Southern Miss 32 -34
Tulsa 35 - Southern Methodist 21 0.816 Tulsa 43 - Southern Methodist 40 11
Utah 31 - Arizona 27 0.624 Utah 36 - Arizona 23 -9
Wake Forest 28 - Syracuse 21 0.71 Wake Forest 28 - Syracuse 9 -12
Western Michigan 41 - Northern Illinois 17 0.912 Western Michigan 45 - Northern Illinois 30 9
Wyoming 20 - Air Force 34 0.782 Wyoming 35 - Air Force 26 -23


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 38 = 70.3%
Expected Number Correct: 38.554 = 71.3%
Average Error: 13.27
Average Signed Error: 2.27

WEEK 7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 28 - Western Michigan 38 0.758 Akron 0 - Western Michigan 41 31
Arizona 28 - Southern California 34 0.62 Arizona 14 - Southern California 48 28
Arkansas 34 - Mississippi 45 0.742 Arkansas 34 - Mississippi 30 -15
Arkansas State 24 - South Alabama 21 0.536 Arkansas State 17 - South Alabama 7 -7
Army 34 - FCS Team 13 Army 62 - FCS Team 7
Baylor 41 - Kansas 14 0.942 Baylor 49 - Kansas 7 -15
Boise State 35 - Colorado State 14 0.901 Boise State 28 - Colorado State 23 16
Brigham Young 34 - Miss State 28 0.686 Brigham Young 28 - Miss State 21 -1
Buffalo 17 - Ball State 27 0.704 Buffalo 21 - Ball State 31 0
Central Florida 31 - Temple 27 0.587 Central Florida 25 - Temple 26 5
Charlotte 23 - Florida International 24 0.565 Charlotte 26 - Florida International 27 0
Clemson 35 - NC State 17 0.863 Clemson 24 - NC State 17 11
Colorado 41 - Arizona State 34 0.678 Colorado 40 - Arizona State 16 -17
Florida 28 - Missouri 17 0.752 Florida 40 - Missouri 14 -15
Florida State 34 - Wake Forest 20 0.776 Florida State 17 - Wake Forest 6 3
Fresno State 17 - San Diego State 34 0.822 Fresno State 3 - San Diego State 17 -3
Georgia 34 - Vanderbilt 17 0.863 Georgia 16 - Vanderbilt 17 18
Georgia Tech 34 - Georgia Southern 17 0.792 Georgia Tech 35 - Georgia Southern 24 6
Hawaii 28 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 0.691 Hawaii 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 41 7
Houston 49 - Tulsa 24 0.952 Houston 38 - Tulsa 31 18
Idaho 38 - New Mexico St 27 0.786 Idaho 55 - New Mexico St 23 -21
Indiana 27 - Nebraska 31 0.69 Indiana 22 - Nebraska 27 1
Louisiana Lafayette 17 - Appalachian State 31 0.79 Louisiana Lafayette 0 - Appalachian State 24 10
Louisiana Monroe 35 - Texas State 27 0.74 Louisiana Monroe 40 - Texas State 34 2
Louisiana State 42 - Southern Miss 14 0.948 Louisiana State 45 - Southern Miss 10 -7
Louisville 45 - Duke 21 0.892 Louisville 24 - Duke 14 14
Marshall 35 - Florida Atlantic 24 0.766 Marshall 27 - Florida Atlantic 21 5
Maryland 24 - Minnesota 21 0.588 Maryland 10 - Minnesota 31 24
Massachusetts 21 - Louisiana Tech 35 0.83 Massachusetts 28 - Louisiana Tech 56 14
Miami FL 35 - North Carolina 27 0.726 Miami FL 13 - North Carolina 20 15
Miami OH 17 - Kent State 20 0.576 Miami OH 18 - Kent State 14 -7
Michigan State 24 - Northwestern 21 0.528 Michigan State 40 - Northwestern 54 17
Middle Tennessee 31 - Western Kentucky 34 0.516 Middle Tennessee 43 - Western Kentucky 44 -2
New Mexico 21 - Air Force 41 0.843 New Mexico 45 - Air Force 40 -25
Northern Illinois 31 - Central Michigan 27 0.599 Northern Illinois 28 - Central Michigan 34 10
Notre Dame 24 - Stanford 31 0.677 Notre Dame 10 - Stanford 17 0
Ohio 28 - Eastern Michigan 20 0.739 Ohio 20 - Eastern Michigan 27 15
Oklahoma 38 - Kansas State 31 0.659 Oklahoma 38 - Kansas State 17 -14
Oregon State 24 - Utah 34 0.726 Oregon State 14 - Utah 19 -5
Purdue 14 - Iowa 34 0.831 Purdue 35 - Iowa 49 -6
Rice 20 - Texas San Antonio 28 0.719 Rice 13 - Texas San Antonio 14 -7
Rutgers 27 - Illinois 24 0.58 Rutgers 7 - Illinois 24 20
San Jose State 20 - Nevada 21 0.509 San Jose State 14 - Nevada 10 -5
South Florida 31 - Connecticut 17 0.83 South Florida 42 - Connecticut 27 -1
Syracuse 20 - Virginia Tech 42 0.87 Syracuse 31 - Virginia Tech 17 -36
Tennessee 28 - Alabama 41 0.765 Tennessee 10 - Alabama 49 26
Texas 38 - Iowa State 31 0.706 Texas 27 - Iowa State 6 -14
Texas Tech 38 - West Virginia 42 0.582 Texas Tech 17 - West Virginia 48 27
Toledo 45 - Bowling Green 20 0.872 Toledo 42 - Bowling Green 35 18
Troy 31 - Georgia State 13 0.817 Troy 31 - Georgia State 21 8
Tulane 17 - Memphis 38 0.818 Tulane 14 - Memphis 24 -11
Virginia 34 - Pittsburgh 35 0.503 Virginia 31 - Pittsburgh 45 13
Washington State 38 - UCLA 27 0.785 Washington State 27 - UCLA 21 5
Wisconsin 21 - Ohio State 28 0.634 Wisconsin 23 - Ohio State 30 0


Number of FBS Games: 53
Number Correct: 39 = 73.5%
Expected Number Correct: 38.67 = 72.9%
Average Error: 11.71
Average Signed Error: 2.88

WEEK 8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - Hawaii 21 0.789 Air Force 27 - Hawaii 34 24
Alabama 42 - Texas AM 27 0.837 Alabama 33 - Texas AM 14 -4
Appalachian State 31 - Idaho 13 0.876 Appalachian State 37 - Idaho 19 0
Arizona State 34 - Washington State 42 0.737 Arizona State 32 - Washington State 37 -3
Army 24 - North Texas 13 0.743 Army 18 - North Texas 35 28
Auburn 35 - Arkansas 27 0.759 Auburn 56 - Arkansas 3 -45
Ball State 28 - Akron 27 0.512 Ball State 25 - Akron 35 11
Boise State 31 - Brigham Young 24 0.673 Boise State 28 - Brigham Young 27 6
Boston College 24 - Syracuse 27 0.539 Boston College 20 - Syracuse 28 5
Bowling Green 24 - Miami OH 20 0.605 Bowling Green 26 - Miami OH 40 18
California 48 - Oregon 52 0.596 California 52 - Oregon 49 -7
Cincinnati 28 - East Carolina 27 0.563 Cincinnati 31 - East Carolina 19 -11
Connecticut 23 - Central Florida 24 0.517 Connecticut 16 - Central Florida 24 7
Florida International 21 - Louisiana Tech 38 0.852 Florida International 24 - Louisiana Tech 44 3
Georgia State 34 - FCS Team 14 Georgia State 31 - FCS Team 6
Iowa 17 - Wisconsin 27 0.723 Iowa 9 - Wisconsin 17 -2
Kansas 20 - Oklahoma State 41 0.86 Kansas 20 - Oklahoma State 44 3
Kansas State 34 - Texas 28 0.682 Kansas State 24 - Texas 21 3
Kent State 21 - Ohio 20 0.503 Kent State 10 - Ohio 14 5
Kentucky 27 - Miss State 31 0.594 Kentucky 40 - Miss State 38 -6
Louisiana State 34 - Mississippi 31 0.579 Louisiana State 38 - Mississippi 21 -14
Louisville 38 - NC State 27 0.746 Louisville 54 - NC State 13 -30
Marshall 38 - Charlotte 21 0.845 Marshall 24 - Charlotte 27 20
Maryland 28 - Michigan State 31 0.534 Maryland 28 - Michigan State 17 -14
Michigan 49 - Illinois 10 0.991 Michigan 41 - Illinois 8 6
Minnesota 31 - Rutgers 10 0.888 Minnesota 34 - Rutgers 32 19
Missouri 31 - Middle Tennessee 27 0.685 Missouri 45 - Middle Tennessee 51 10
Navy 27 - Memphis 28 0.539 Navy 42 - Memphis 28 -15
Nebraska 45 - Purdue 17 0.957 Nebraska 27 - Purdue 14 15
Nevada 17 - Wyoming 27 0.739 Nevada 34 - Wyoming 42 -2
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Colorado State 28 0.653 Nevada Las Vegas 23 - Colorado State 42 15
New Mexico 38 - Louisiana Monroe 31 0.717 New Mexico 59 - Louisiana Monroe 17 -35
New Mexico St 24 - Georgia Southern 41 0.841 New Mexico St 19 - Georgia Southern 22 -14
Northern Illinois 35 - Buffalo 14 0.86 Northern Illinois 44 - Buffalo 7 -16
Northwestern 35 - Indiana 24 0.785 Northwestern 24 - Indiana 14 1
Penn State 24 - Ohio State 41 0.87 Penn State 24 - Ohio State 21 -20
Rice 31 - FCS Team 17 Rice 65 - FCS Team 44
San Diego State 28 - San Jose State 7 0.866 San Diego State 42 - San Jose State 3 -18
South Alabama 17 - Troy 24 0.707 South Alabama 21 - Troy 28 0
South Carolina 31 - Massachusetts 10 0.956 South Carolina 34 - Massachusetts 28 15
Southern Methodist 20 - Houston 42 0.92 Southern Methodist 38 - Houston 16 -44
Stanford 27 - Colorado 24 0.553 Stanford 5 - Colorado 10 8
Temple 31 - South Florida 34 0.623 Temple 46 - South Florida 30 -19
Texas San Antonio 28 - Texas El Paso 7 0.854 Texas San Antonio 49 - Texas El Paso 52 24
Texas State 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.619 Texas State 3 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 20
Texas Tech 41 - Oklahoma 52 0.766 Texas Tech 59 - Oklahoma 66 -4
Toledo 38 - Central Michigan 27 0.787 Toledo 31 - Central Michigan 17 -3
Tulsa 31 - Tulane 24 0.698 Tulsa 50 - Tulane 27 -16
UCLA 27 - Utah 21 0.711 UCLA 45 - Utah 52 13
Utah State 28 - Fresno State 13 0.871 Utah State 38 - Fresno State 20 -3
Vanderbilt 35 - FCS Team 7 Vanderbilt 35 - FCS Team 17
Virginia 31 - North Carolina 34 0.584 Virginia 14 - North Carolina 35 18
Virginia Tech 28 - Miami FL 24 0.591 Virginia Tech 37 - Miami FL 16 -17
Washington 49 - Oregon State 20 0.927 Washington 41 - Oregon State 17 5
West Virginia 35 - Texas Christian 24 0.724 West Virginia 34 - Texas Christian 10 -13
Western Kentucky 38 - Old Dominion 28 0.748 Western Kentucky 59 - Old Dominion 24 -25
Western Michigan 41 - Eastern Michigan 10 0.964 Western Michigan 45 - Eastern Michigan 31 17


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 37 = 68.5%
Expected Number Correct: 39.658 = 73.4%
Average Error: 13.31
Average Signed Error: -1.5

WEEK 9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 21 - Stanford 28 0.69 Arizona 10 - Stanford 34 17
Arkansas State 35 - Louisiana Monroe 14 0.896 Arkansas State 51 - Louisiana Monroe 10 -20
Buffalo 17 - Akron 31 0.79 Buffalo 41 - Akron 20 -35
Central Michigan 24 - Kent State 13 0.781 Central Michigan 24 - Kent State 27 14
East Carolina 25 - Connecticut 24 0.522 East Carolina 41 - Connecticut 3 -37
Eastern Michigan 24 - Miami OH 17 0.695 Eastern Michigan 15 - Miami OH 28 20
Florida 27 - Georgia 20 0.695 Florida 24 - Georgia 10 -7
Florida Atlantic 20 - Western Kentucky 42 0.941 Florida Atlantic 3 - Western Kentucky 52 27
Florida International 21 - Middle Tennessee 38 0.854 Florida International 35 - Middle Tennessee 42 -10
Florida State 27 - Clemson 34 0.662 Florida State 34 - Clemson 37 -4
Fresno State 20 - Air Force 31 0.759 Fresno State 21 - Air Force 31 -1
Georgia Southern 17 - Appalachian State 21 0.653 Georgia Southern 10 - Appalachian State 34 20
Georgia Tech 27 - Duke 20 0.718 Georgia Tech 38 - Duke 35 4
Hawaii 35 - New Mexico 34 0.535 Hawaii 21 - New Mexico 28 8
Houston 35 - Central Florida 27 0.69 Houston 31 - Central Florida 24 1
Illinois 21 - Minnesota 27 0.644 Illinois 17 - Minnesota 40 17
Indiana 28 - Maryland 27 0.547 Indiana 42 - Maryland 36 -5
Iowa State 21 - Kansas State 31 0.714 Iowa State 26 - Kansas State 31 -5
Louisiana Tech 38 - Rice 17 0.945 Louisiana Tech 61 - Rice 16 -24
Massachusetts 34 - FCS Team 21 Massachusetts 34 - FCS Team 10
Memphis 42 - Tulsa 31 0.732 Memphis 30 - Tulsa 59 40
Michigan State 20 - Michigan 45 0.932 Michigan State 23 - Michigan 32 -16
Miss State 48 - FCS Team 14 Miss State 56 - FCS Team 41
Mississippi 34 - Auburn 38 0.602 Mississippi 29 - Auburn 40 7
Missouri 34 - Kentucky 31 0.616 Missouri 21 - Kentucky 35 17
NC State 31 - Boston College 14 0.807 NC State 14 - Boston College 21 24
Notre Dame 26 - Miami FL 27 0.51 Notre Dame 30 - Miami FL 27 -4
Ohio State 41 - Northwestern 21 0.89 Ohio State 24 - Northwestern 20 16
Oklahoma 52 - Kansas 20 0.985 Oklahoma 56 - Kansas 3 -21
Oklahoma State 27 - West Virginia 34 0.692 Oklahoma State 37 - West Virginia 20 -24
Oregon 48 - Arizona State 45 0.585 Oregon 54 - Arizona State 35 -16
Oregon State 27 - Washington State 38 0.8 Oregon State 31 - Washington State 35 -7
Pittsburgh 34 - Virginia Tech 38 0.586 Pittsburgh 36 - Virginia Tech 39 -1
Purdue 20 - Penn State 38 0.829 Purdue 24 - Penn State 62 20
San Jose State 21 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 0.548 San Jose State 30 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 -9
South Alabama 21 - Georgia State 13 0.665 South Alabama 13 - Georgia State 10 5
South Carolina 24 - Tennessee 31 0.741 South Carolina 24 - Tennessee 21 -10
South Florida 34 - Navy 31 0.561 South Florida 52 - Navy 45 -4
Southern California 48 - California 34 0.795 Southern California 45 - California 24 -7
Southern Miss 38 - Marshall 27 0.719 Southern Miss 24 - Marshall 14 1
Temple 34 - Cincinnati 20 0.79 Temple 34 - Cincinnati 13 -7
Texas 31 - Baylor 35 0.669 Texas 35 - Baylor 34 -5
Texas AM 52 - New Mexico St 10 0.991 Texas AM 52 - New Mexico St 10 0
Texas Christian 49 - Texas Tech 42 0.666 Texas Christian 24 - Texas Tech 27 10
Texas El Paso 21 - Old Dominion 31 0.7 Texas El Paso 21 - Old Dominion 31 0
Texas San Antonio 23 - North Texas 24 0.503 Texas San Antonio 31 - North Texas 17 -15
Toledo 35 - Ohio 17 0.86 Toledo 26 - Ohio 31 23
Tulane 21 - Southern Methodist 24 0.54 Tulane 31 - Southern Methodist 35 1
Utah 28 - Washington 41 0.74 Utah 24 - Washington 31 -6
Utah State 17 - San Diego State 20 0.548 Utah State 13 - San Diego State 40 24
Virginia 27 - Louisville 45 0.838 Virginia 25 - Louisville 32 -11
Wake Forest 24 - Army 10 0.754 Wake Forest 13 - Army 21 22
Wisconsin 27 - Nebraska 14 0.773 Wisconsin 23 - Nebraska 17 7
Wyoming 21 - Boise State 34 0.773 Wyoming 30 - Boise State 28 -15


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 35 = 67.3%
Expected Number Correct: 37.471 = 72%
Average Error: 12.9
Average Signed Error: 0.36

WEEK 10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 27 - Toledo 35 0.702 Akron 17 - Toledo 48 23
Appalachian State 38 - Texas State 3 0.988 Appalachian State 35 - Texas State 10 10
Arkansas 24 - Florida 28 0.599 Arkansas 31 - Florida 10 -25
Army 22 - Air Force 21 0.525 Army 12 - Air Force 31 20
Auburn 34 - Vanderbilt 10 0.908 Auburn 23 - Vanderbilt 16 17
Ball State 17 - Western Michigan 38 0.905 Ball State 20 - Western Michigan 52 11
Baylor 38 - Texas Christian 27 0.747 Baylor 22 - Texas Christian 62 51
Boise State 35 - San Jose State 7 0.973 Boise State 45 - San Jose State 31 14
Boston College 20 - Louisville 38 0.804 Boston College 7 - Louisville 52 27
California 35 - Washington 52 0.791 California 27 - Washington 66 22
Central Florida 31 - Tulane 17 0.849 Central Florida 37 - Tulane 6 -17
Cincinnati 21 - Brigham Young 31 0.765 Cincinnati 3 - Brigham Young 20 7
Clemson 45 - Syracuse 20 0.898 Clemson 54 - Syracuse 0 -29
Colorado 34 - UCLA 24 0.78 Colorado 20 - UCLA 10 0
Colorado State 31 - Fresno State 14 0.846 Colorado State 37 - Fresno State 0 -20
Connecticut 14 - Temple 27 0.758 Connecticut 0 - Temple 21 8
Duke 24 - Virginia Tech 34 0.704 Duke 21 - Virginia Tech 24 -7
Georgia State 17 - Arkansas State 21 0.628 Georgia State 16 - Arkansas State 31 11
Illinois 24 - Michigan State 31 0.697 Illinois 31 - Michigan State 27 -11
Iowa State 28 - Oklahoma 42 0.789 Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma 34 -4
Kansas State 32 - Oklahoma State 31 0.509 Kansas State 37 - Oklahoma State 43 7
Kentucky 27 - Georgia 28 0.5 Kentucky 24 - Georgia 27 2
Louisiana Lafayette 27 - Idaho 21 0.613 Louisiana Lafayette 13 - Idaho 23 16
Louisiana Monroe 14 - South Alabama 27 0.767 Louisiana Monroe 42 - South Alabama 35 -20
Louisiana State 24 - Alabama 31 0.716 Louisiana State 0 - Alabama 10 3
Miami FL 34 - Pittsburgh 31 0.562 Miami FL 51 - Pittsburgh 28 -20
Miami OH 19 - Central Michigan 20 0.519 Miami OH 37 - Central Michigan 17 -21
Michigan 45 - Maryland 17 0.92 Michigan 59 - Maryland 3 -28
Middle Tennessee 38 - Texas San Antonio 27 0.753 Middle Tennessee 25 - Texas San Antonio 45 31
Minnesota 41 - Purdue 21 0.883 Minnesota 44 - Purdue 31 7
Miss State 28 - Texas AM 35 0.75 Miss State 35 - Texas AM 28 -14
Mississippi 45 - Georgia Southern 20 0.92 Mississippi 37 - Georgia Southern 27 15
Navy 31 - Notre Dame 34 0.55 Navy 28 - Notre Dame 27 -4
NC State 27 - Florida State 31 0.625 NC State 20 - Florida State 24 0
New Mexico 31 - Nevada 24 0.754 New Mexico 35 - Nevada 26 -2
North Carolina 35 - Georgia Tech 28 0.693 North Carolina 48 - Georgia Tech 20 -21
North Texas 24 - Louisiana Tech 34 0.749 North Texas 24 - Louisiana Tech 45 11
Northern Illinois 38 - Bowling Green 21 0.763 Northern Illinois 45 - Bowling Green 20 -8
Northwestern 21 - Wisconsin 24 0.582 Northwestern 7 - Wisconsin 21 11
Ohio 28 - Buffalo 13 0.77 Ohio 34 - Buffalo 10 -9
Ohio State 38 - Nebraska 20 0.847 Ohio State 62 - Nebraska 3 -41
Old Dominion 31 - Marshall 24 0.713 Old Dominion 38 - Marshall 14 -17
Penn State 31 - Iowa 24 0.718 Penn State 41 - Iowa 14 -20
Rice 24 - Florida Atlantic 17 0.738 Rice 25 - Florida Atlantic 42 24
Rutgers 24 - Indiana 34 0.716 Rutgers 27 - Indiana 33 -4
San Diego State 31 - Hawaii 14 0.831 San Diego State 55 - Hawaii 0 -38
South Carolina 31 - Missouri 21 0.723 South Carolina 31 - Missouri 21 0
Southern California 48 - Oregon 38 0.732 Southern California 45 - Oregon 20 -15
Southern Methodist 28 - Memphis 31 0.545 Southern Methodist 7 - Memphis 51 41
Southern Miss 35 - Charlotte 17 0.868 Southern Miss 27 - Charlotte 38 29
Stanford 31 - Oregon State 14 0.805 Stanford 26 - Oregon State 15 6
Tennessee 52 - FCS Team 13 Tennessee 55 - FCS Team 0
Texas El Paso 31 - FCS Team 21 Texas El Paso 42 - FCS Team 10
Texas Tech 41 - Texas 42 0.52 Texas Tech 37 - Texas 45 7
Troy 35 - Massachusetts 14 0.933 Troy 52 - Massachusetts 31 0
Tulsa 41 - East Carolina 31 0.701 Tulsa 45 - East Carolina 24 -11
Wake Forest 21 - Virginia 20 0.548 Wake Forest 27 - Virginia 20 -6
Washington State 45 - Arizona 27 0.837 Washington State 69 - Arizona 7 -44
West Virginia 41 - Kansas 6 0.972 West Virginia 48 - Kansas 21 8
Western Kentucky 42 - Florida International 17 0.971 Western Kentucky 49 - Florida International 21 -3
Wyoming 28 - Utah State 21 0.697 Wyoming 52 - Utah State 28 -17


Number of FBS Games: 59
Number Correct: 46 = 77.9%
Expected Number Correct: 43.969 = 74.5%
Average Error: 15.5
Average Signed Error: -0.63

WEEK 11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Colorado State 21 0.527 Air Force 49 - Colorado State 46 0
Akron 38 - Bowling Green 27 0.707 Akron 28 - Bowling Green 38 21
Alabama 45 - Miss State 17 0.986 Alabama 51 - Miss State 3 -20
Arizona 17 - Colorado 41 0.89 Arizona 24 - Colorado 49 1
Arizona State 34 - Utah 38 0.588 Arizona State 26 - Utah 49 19
Arkansas 20 - Louisiana State 28 0.713 Arkansas 10 - Louisiana State 38 20
Arkansas State 38 - New Mexico St 14 0.905 Arkansas State 41 - New Mexico St 22 5
Ball State 21 - Eastern Michigan 24 0.533 Ball State 41 - Eastern Michigan 48 4
Brigham Young 45 - FCS Team 7 Brigham Young 37 - FCS Team 7
Buffalo 13 - Miami OH 24 0.741 Buffalo 24 - Miami OH 35 0
Central Florida 31 - Cincinnati 13 0.912 Central Florida 24 - Cincinnati 3 -3
Charlotte 28 - Rice 17 0.773 Charlotte 21 - Rice 22 12
Clemson 52 - Pittsburgh 28 0.925 Clemson 42 - Pittsburgh 43 25
Duke 24 - North Carolina 28 0.674 Duke 28 - North Carolina 27 -5
East Carolina 31 - Southern Methodist 27 0.591 East Carolina 31 - Southern Methodist 55 28
Florida 24 - South Carolina 10 0.785 Florida 20 - South Carolina 7 1
Florida Atlantic 24 - Texas El Paso 21 0.534 Florida Atlantic 35 - Texas El Paso 31 -1
Florida State 35 - Boston College 17 0.855 Florida State 45 - Boston College 7 -20
Georgia 17 - Auburn 35 0.842 Georgia 13 - Auburn 7 -24
Georgia Southern 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 13 0.793 Georgia Southern 26 - Louisiana Lafayette 33 18
Georgia State 31 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.761 Georgia State 23 - Louisiana Monroe 37 28
Hawaii 20 - Boise State 35 0.824 Hawaii 16 - Boise State 52 21
Houston 38 - Tulane 17 0.861 Houston 30 - Tulane 18 9
Indiana 27 - Penn State 38 0.827 Indiana 31 - Penn State 45 3
Iowa 20 - Michigan 42 0.873 Iowa 14 - Michigan 13 -23
Kansas 20 - Iowa State 31 0.764 Kansas 24 - Iowa State 31 -4
Kent State 14 - Western Michigan 34 0.983 Kent State 21 - Western Michigan 37 -4
Louisiana Tech 38 - Texas San Antonio 27 0.777 Louisiana Tech 63 - Texas San Antonio 35 -17
Louisville 42 - Wake Forest 14 0.913 Louisville 44 - Wake Forest 12 -4
Marshall 24 - Middle Tennessee 38 0.783 Marshall 42 - Middle Tennessee 17 -39
Maryland 17 - Ohio State 45 0.883 Maryland 3 - Ohio State 62 31
Memphis 42 - South Florida 41 0.559 Memphis 42 - South Florida 49 8
Michigan State 38 - Rutgers 24 0.757 Michigan State 49 - Rutgers 0 -35
Missouri 20 - Vanderbilt 27 0.653 Missouri 26 - Vanderbilt 17 -16
Navy 37 - Tulsa 38 0.514 Navy 42 - Tulsa 40 -3
Nebraska 31 - Minnesota 27 0.565 Nebraska 24 - Minnesota 17 -3
Nevada 7 - San Diego State 31 0.843 Nevada 16 - San Diego State 46 6
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Wyoming 38 0.793 Nevada Las Vegas 69 - Wyoming 66 -14
Northern Illinois 28 - Toledo 35 0.689 Northern Illinois 24 - Toledo 31 0
Notre Dame 27 - Army 17 0.718 Notre Dame 44 - Army 6 -28
Oklahoma 48 - Baylor 34 0.776 Oklahoma 45 - Baylor 24 -7
Oklahoma State 49 - Texas Tech 41 0.742 Oklahoma State 45 - Texas Tech 44 7
Old Dominion 31 - Southern Miss 21 0.723 Old Dominion 51 - Southern Miss 35 -6
Oregon 31 - Stanford 34 0.605 Oregon 27 - Stanford 52 22
Purdue 24 - Northwestern 42 0.897 Purdue 17 - Northwestern 45 10
Syracuse 24 - NC State 28 0.619 Syracuse 20 - NC State 35 11
Tennessee 38 - Kentucky 28 0.748 Tennessee 49 - Kentucky 36 -3
Texas 28 - West Virginia 31 0.568 Texas 20 - West Virginia 24 1
Texas AM 42 - Mississippi 38 0.664 Texas AM 28 - Mississippi 29 5
Texas State 17 - Idaho 31 0.823 Texas State 14 - Idaho 47 19
Troy 24 - Appalachian State 17 0.696 Troy 28 - Appalachian State 24 3
UCLA 31 - Oregon State 24 0.772 UCLA 38 - Oregon State 24 -7
Utah State 31 - New Mexico 28 0.525 Utah State 21 - New Mexico 24 6
Virginia 24 - Miami FL 31 0.693 Virginia 14 - Miami FL 34 13
Virginia Tech 38 - Georgia Tech 24 0.747 Virginia Tech 20 - Georgia Tech 30 24
Washington 42 - Southern California 31 0.757 Washington 13 - Southern California 26 24
Washington State 59 - California 35 0.878 Washington State 56 - California 21 -11
Western Kentucky 41 - North Texas 17 0.949 Western Kentucky 45 - North Texas 7 -14
Wisconsin 34 - Illinois 7 0.977 Wisconsin 48 - Illinois 3 -18


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 40 = 68.9%
Expected Number Correct: 43.773 = 75.4%
Average Error: 12.65
Average Signed Error: 1.31

WEEK 12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 59 - FCS Team 0 Alabama 31 - FCS Team 3
Appalachian State 35 - Louisiana Monroe 13 0.891 Appalachian State 42 - Louisiana Monroe 17 -3
Army 31 - FCS Team 13 Army 60 - FCS Team 3
Auburn 52 - FCS Team 3 Auburn 55 - FCS Team 0
Baylor 30 - Kansas State 31 0.522 Baylor 21 - Kansas State 42 20
Boise State 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 0.955 Boise State 42 - Nevada Las Vegas 25 7
Boston College 20 - Connecticut 14 0.623 Boston College 30 - Connecticut 0 -24
Bowling Green 20 - Kent State 28 0.697 Bowling Green 42 - Kent State 7 -43
Brigham Young 41 - Massachusetts 14 0.992 Brigham Young 51 - Massachusetts 9 -15
California 31 - Stanford 41 0.759 California 31 - Stanford 45 4
Central Florida 35 - Tulsa 34 0.564 Central Florida 20 - Tulsa 35 16
Central Michigan 20 - Ohio 21 0.541 Central Michigan 27 - Ohio 20 -8
Charlotte 27 - Middle Tennessee 31 0.58 Charlotte 31 - Middle Tennessee 38 3
Cincinnati 20 - Memphis 31 0.741 Cincinnati 7 - Memphis 34 16
Colorado 35 - Washington State 34 0.512 Colorado 38 - Washington State 24 -13
Colorado State 34 - New Mexico 24 0.729 Colorado State 49 - New Mexico 31 -8
East Carolina 28 - Navy 41 0.732 East Carolina 31 - Navy 66 22
Eastern Michigan 26 - Northern Illinois 27 0.536 Eastern Michigan 24 - Northern Illinois 31 6
Florida Atlantic 17 - Old Dominion 31 0.797 Florida Atlantic 24 - Old Dominion 42 4
Florida International 25 - Marshall 24 0.535 Florida International 31 - Marshall 14 -16
Fresno State 21 - Hawaii 24 0.549 Fresno State 13 - Hawaii 14 -2
Georgia 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 7 0.923 Georgia 35 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 7
Georgia State 17 - Georgia Southern 20 0.539 Georgia State 30 - Georgia Southern 24 -9
Georgia Tech 35 - Virginia 24 0.74 Georgia Tech 31 - Virginia 17 -3
Houston 28 - Louisville 42 0.742 Houston 36 - Louisville 10 -40
Illinois 17 - Iowa 31 0.781 Illinois 0 - Iowa 28 14
Iowa State 38 - Texas Tech 41 0.592 Iowa State 66 - Texas Tech 10 -59
Kansas 20 - Texas 38 0.899 Kansas 24 - Texas 21 -21
Kentucky 48 - FCS Team 17 Kentucky 49 - FCS Team 13
Louisiana State 24 - Florida 10 0.839 Louisiana State 10 - Florida 16 20
Michigan 48 - Indiana 17 0.96 Michigan 20 - Indiana 10 21
Michigan State 20 - Ohio State 45 0.868 Michigan State 16 - Ohio State 17 -24
Minnesota 24 - Northwestern 31 0.673 Minnesota 29 - Northwestern 12 -24
Miss State 35 - Arkansas 34 0.515 Miss State 42 - Arkansas 58 17
NC State 21 - Miami FL 24 0.606 NC State 13 - Miami FL 27 11
Nebraska 34 - Maryland 20 0.751 Nebraska 28 - Maryland 7 -7
Nevada 17 - Utah State 21 0.652 Nevada 38 - Utah State 37 -5
New Mexico St 35 - Texas State 24 0.772 New Mexico St 50 - Texas State 10 -29
North Carolina 49 - FCS Team 10 North Carolina 41 - FCS Team 7
North Texas 25 - Southern Miss 24 0.522 North Texas 29 - Southern Miss 23 -5
Notre Dame 27 - Virginia Tech 28 0.509 Notre Dame 31 - Virginia Tech 34 2
Oregon State 38 - Arizona 27 0.746 Oregon State 42 - Arizona 17 -14
Pittsburgh 41 - Duke 31 0.738 Pittsburgh 56 - Duke 14 -32
Purdue 14 - Wisconsin 42 0.974 Purdue 20 - Wisconsin 49 1
Rice 22 - Texas El Paso 21 0.543 Rice 44 - Texas El Paso 24 -19
Rutgers 17 - Penn State 48 0.909 Rutgers 0 - Penn State 39 8
San Jose State 20 - Air Force 31 0.744 San Jose State 38 - Air Force 41 -8
South Alabama 31 - FCS Team 10 South Alabama 31 - FCS Team 7
South Carolina 38 - FCS Team 7 South Carolina 44 - FCS Team 31
Southern Methodist 35 - South Florida 45 0.679 Southern Methodist 27 - South Florida 35 -2
Syracuse 24 - Florida State 41 0.796 Syracuse 14 - Florida State 45 14
Tennessee 45 - Missouri 28 0.842 Tennessee 63 - Missouri 37 -9
Texas AM 45 - Texas San Antonio 20 0.941 Texas AM 23 - Texas San Antonio 10 12
Texas Christian 38 - Oklahoma State 35 0.537 Texas Christian 6 - Oklahoma State 31 28
Toledo 41 - Ball State 20 0.981 Toledo 37 - Ball State 19 3
Troy 28 - Arkansas State 17 0.78 Troy 3 - Arkansas State 35 43
Tulane 14 - Temple 28 0.857 Tulane 0 - Temple 31 17
UCLA 24 - Southern California 31 0.735 UCLA 14 - Southern California 36 15
Utah 49 - Oregon 38 0.79 Utah 28 - Oregon 30 13
Vanderbilt 24 - Mississippi 34 0.731 Vanderbilt 38 - Mississippi 17 -31
Wake Forest 14 - Clemson 34 0.873 Wake Forest 13 - Clemson 35 2
Washington 52 - Arizona State 27 0.889 Washington 44 - Arizona State 18 -1
West Virginia 35 - Oklahoma 34 0.505 West Virginia 28 - Oklahoma 56 29
Western Michigan 45 - Buffalo 7 0.991 Western Michigan 38 - Buffalo 0 0
Wyoming 28 - San Diego State 35 0.611 Wyoming 34 - San Diego State 33 -8


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 41 = 70.6%
Expected Number Correct: 42.33 = 72.9%
Average Error: 14.77
Average Signed Error: -1.85

WEEK 13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Boise State 34 0.727 Air Force 27 - Boise State 20 -14
Alabama 34 - Auburn 17 0.789 Alabama 30 - Auburn 12 -1
Arizona 35 - Arizona State 41 0.64 Arizona 56 - Arizona State 35 -27
Bowling Green 31 - Buffalo 17 0.733 Bowling Green 27 - Buffalo 19 6
Brigham Young 34 - Utah State 13 0.963 Brigham Young 28 - Utah State 10 3
California 38 - UCLA 41 0.655 California 36 - UCLA 10 -29
Clemson 35 - South Carolina 13 0.969 Clemson 56 - South Carolina 7 -27
Colorado 35 - Utah 21 0.839 Colorado 27 - Utah 22 9
Connecticut 14 - Tulane 17 0.544 Connecticut 13 - Tulane 38 22
Eastern Michigan 27 - Central Michigan 24 0.588 Eastern Michigan 26 - Central Michigan 21 -2
Florida State 24 - Florida 21 0.576 Florida State 31 - Florida 13 -15
Fresno State 17 - San Jose State 20 0.549 Fresno State 14 - San Jose State 16 -1
Georgia 27 - Georgia Tech 24 0.588 Georgia 27 - Georgia Tech 28 4
Hawaii 31 - Massachusetts 24 0.666 Hawaii 46 - Massachusetts 40 1
Idaho 21 - South Alabama 17 0.58 Idaho 38 - South Alabama 31 -3
Indiana 45 - Purdue 28 0.869 Indiana 26 - Purdue 24 15
Iowa 24 - Nebraska 17 0.635 Iowa 40 - Nebraska 10 -23
Iowa State 27 - West Virginia 28 0.525 Iowa State 19 - West Virginia 49 29
Kansas State 38 - Kansas 13 0.925 Kansas State 34 - Kansas 19 10
Kent State 17 - Northern Illinois 24 0.693 Kent State 21 - Northern Illinois 31 3
Louisiana Lafayette 13 - Arkansas State 24 0.767 Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Arkansas State 19 -16
Louisville 45 - Kentucky 27 0.806 Louisville 38 - Kentucky 41 21
Marshall 14 - Western Kentucky 38 0.888 Marshall 6 - Western Kentucky 60 30
Maryland 35 - Rutgers 21 0.752 Maryland 31 - Rutgers 13 -4
Memphis 34 - Houston 31 0.513 Memphis 48 - Houston 44 -1
Miami FL 34 - Duke 17 0.818 Miami FL 40 - Duke 21 -2
Miami OH 28 - Ball State 20 0.764 Miami OH 21 - Ball State 20 7
Middle Tennessee 38 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.777 Middle Tennessee 77 - Florida Atlantic 56 -4
Mississippi 45 - Miss State 35 0.733 Mississippi 20 - Miss State 55 45
Missouri 35 - Arkansas 42 0.656 Missouri 28 - Arkansas 24 -11
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - Nevada 27 0.754 Nevada Las Vegas 10 - Nevada 45 43
New Mexico 35 - Wyoming 41 0.65 New Mexico 56 - Wyoming 35 -27
New Mexico St 14 - Appalachian State 31 0.796 New Mexico St 7 - Appalachian State 37 13
North Carolina 31 - NC State 20 0.737 North Carolina 21 - NC State 28 18
Northwestern 35 - Illinois 14 0.925 Northwestern 42 - Illinois 21 0
Ohio 31 - Akron 17 0.749 Ohio 9 - Akron 3 8
Ohio State 34 - Michigan 27 0.597 Ohio State 30 - Michigan 27 4
Old Dominion 31 - Florida International 20 0.822 Old Dominion 42 - Florida International 28 -3
Oregon State 41 - Oregon 38 0.572 Oregon State 34 - Oregon 24 -7
Penn State 41 - Michigan State 24 0.776 Penn State 45 - Michigan State 12 -16
Pittsburgh 52 - Syracuse 28 0.877 Pittsburgh 76 - Syracuse 61 9
San Diego State 31 - Colorado State 20 0.736 San Diego State 31 - Colorado State 63 43
South Florida 38 - Central Florida 31 0.707 South Florida 48 - Central Florida 31 -10
Southern California 35 - Notre Dame 20 0.849 Southern California 45 - Notre Dame 27 -3
Southern Methodist 31 - Navy 41 0.651 Southern Methodist 31 - Navy 75 34
Southern Miss 28 - Louisiana Tech 42 0.824 Southern Miss 29 - Louisiana Tech 24 -19
Stanford 38 - Rice 3 0.99 Stanford 41 - Rice 17 11
Temple 42 - East Carolina 17 0.902 Temple 37 - East Carolina 10 -2
Texas 31 - Texas Christian 28 0.533 Texas 9 - Texas Christian 31 25
Texas AM 20 - Louisiana State 24 0.601 Texas AM 39 - Louisiana State 54 11
Texas El Paso 17 - North Texas 27 0.702 Texas El Paso 52 - North Texas 24 -38
Texas San Antonio 31 - Charlotte 17 0.792 Texas San Antonio 33 - Charlotte 14 -5
Texas State 10 - Troy 38 0.932 Texas State 7 - Troy 40 5
Texas Tech 42 - Baylor 45 0.556 Texas Tech 54 - Baylor 35 -22
Tulsa 38 - Cincinnati 17 0.934 Tulsa 40 - Cincinnati 37 18
Vanderbilt 28 - Tennessee 31 0.549 Vanderbilt 45 - Tennessee 34 -14
Virginia Tech 38 - Virginia 20 0.792 Virginia Tech 52 - Virginia 10 -24
Wake Forest 21 - Boston College 13 0.697 Wake Forest 14 - Boston College 17 11
Washington State 39 - Washington 38 0.505 Washington State 17 - Washington 45 29
Western Michigan 35 - Toledo 24 0.81 Western Michigan 55 - Toledo 35 -9
Wisconsin 31 - Minnesota 17 0.827 Wisconsin 31 - Minnesota 17 0


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 42 = 68.8%
Expected Number Correct: 44.671 = 73.2%
Average Error: 14.19
Average Signed Error: 1.77

WEEK 14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Florida 7 - Alabama 31 0.88 Florida 16 - Alabama 54 14
Georgia Southern 20 - Troy 27 0.695 Georgia Southern 28 - Troy 24 -11
Idaho 27 - Georgia State 17 0.742 Idaho 37 - Georgia State 12 -15
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 0.626 Louisiana Monroe 3 - Louisiana Lafayette 30 23
Louisiana Tech 31 - Western Kentucky 41 0.722 Louisiana Tech 44 - Western Kentucky 58 4
Navy 34 - Temple 31 0.52 Navy 10 - Temple 34 27
Ohio 13 - Western Michigan 31 0.937 Ohio 23 - Western Michigan 29 -12
Oklahoma 45 - Oklahoma State 35 0.722 Oklahoma 38 - Oklahoma State 20 -8
Penn State 29 - Wisconsin 28 0.513 Penn State 38 - Wisconsin 31 -6
South Alabama 28 - New Mexico St 17 0.732 South Alabama 35 - New Mexico St 28 4
Texas Christian 27 - Kansas State 24 0.555 Texas Christian 6 - Kansas State 30 27
Texas State 7 - Arkansas State 35 0.917 Texas State 14 - Arkansas State 36 -6
Virginia Tech 27 - Clemson 35 0.696 Virginia Tech 35 - Clemson 42 -1
Washington 31 - Colorado 27 0.649 Washington 41 - Colorado 10 -27
West Virginia 41 - Baylor 24 0.779 West Virginia 24 - Baylor 21 14
Wyoming 31 - San Diego State 38 0.599 Wyoming 24 - San Diego State 27 -4


Number of FBS Games: 16
Number Correct: 13 = 81.2%
Expected Number Correct: 11.284 = 70.5%
Average Error: 12.68
Average Signed Error: 1.43

WEEK 15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Navy 38 - Army 20 0.775 Navy 17 - Army 21 22

WEEK 16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 35 - Washington 27 0.668 Alabama 24 - Washington 7 -9
Appalachian State 23 - Toledo 24 0.523 Appalachian State 31 - Toledo 28 -4
Arkansas 31 - Virginia Tech 38 0.666 Arkansas 24 - Virginia Tech 35 4
Auburn 33 - Oklahoma 34 0.504 Auburn 19 - Oklahoma 35 15
Baylor 27 - Boise State 35 0.701 Baylor 31 - Boise State 12 -27
Brigham Young 35 - Wyoming 27 0.735 Brigham Young 24 - Wyoming 21 5
Central Florida 24 - Arkansas State 17 0.679 Central Florida 13 - Arkansas State 31 25
Central Michigan 27 - Tulsa 41 0.792 Central Michigan 10 - Tulsa 55 31
Eastern Michigan 24 - Old Dominion 28 0.611 Eastern Michigan 20 - Old Dominion 24 0
Florida 17 - Iowa 20 0.548 Florida 30 - Iowa 3 -30
Florida State 24 - Michigan 34 0.694 Florida State 33 - Michigan 32 -11
Georgia 24 - Texas Christian 21 0.53 Georgia 31 - Texas Christian 23 -5
Georgia Tech 34 - Kentucky 31 0.526 Georgia Tech 33 - Kentucky 18 -12
Hawaii 34 - Middle Tennessee 38 0.536 Hawaii 52 - Middle Tennessee 35 -21
Houston 31 - San Diego State 27 0.587 Houston 10 - San Diego State 34 28
Idaho 27 - Colorado State 34 0.67 Idaho 61 - Colorado State 50 -18
Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Southern Miss 17 0.694 Louisiana Lafayette 21 - Southern Miss 28 14
Louisiana State 31 - Louisville 28 0.556 Louisiana State 29 - Louisville 9 -17
Louisiana Tech 38 - Navy 42 0.624 Louisiana Tech 48 - Navy 45 -7
Maryland 24 - Boston College 21 0.558 Maryland 30 - Boston College 36 9
Memphis 35 - Western Kentucky 38 0.552 Memphis 31 - Western Kentucky 51 17
Miami FL 28 - West Virginia 24 0.648 Miami FL 31 - West Virginia 14 -13
Miss State 34 - Miami OH 24 0.719 Miss State 17 - Miami OH 16 9
NC State 20 - Vanderbilt 21 0.531 NC State 41 - Vanderbilt 17 -25
New Mexico 35 - Texas San Antonio 27 0.692 New Mexico 23 - Texas San Antonio 20 5
North Texas 17 - Army 20 0.536 North Texas 31 - Army 38 4
Ohio State 35 - Clemson 28 0.669 Ohio State 0 - Clemson 31 38
Oklahoma State 27 - Colorado 31 0.663 Oklahoma State 38 - Colorado 8 -34
Pittsburgh 43 - Northwestern 42 0.504 Pittsburgh 24 - Northwestern 31 8
South Alabama 20 - Air Force 31 0.741 South Alabama 21 - Air Force 45 13
South Florida 38 - South Carolina 24 0.804 South Florida 46 - South Carolina 39 7
Southern California 34 - Penn State 31 0.532 Southern California 52 - Penn State 49 0
Stanford 27 - North Carolina 24 0.602 Stanford 25 - North Carolina 23 1
Temple 24 - Wake Forest 7 0.853 Temple 26 - Wake Forest 34 25
Tennessee 38 - Nebraska 31 0.623 Tennessee 38 - Nebraska 24 -7
Texas AM 29 - Kansas State 28 0.525 Texas AM 28 - Kansas State 33 6
Troy 18 - Ohio 17 0.533 Troy 28 - Ohio 23 -4
Utah 34 - Indiana 27 0.713 Utah 26 - Indiana 24 5
Washington State 35 - Minnesota 28 0.667 Washington State 12 - Minnesota 17 12
Wisconsin 31 - Western Michigan 24 0.709 Wisconsin 24 - Western Michigan 16 -1

WEEK 17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 38 - Clemson 24 0.768 Alabama 31 - Clemson 35 18


Number of FBS Games: 42
Number Correct: 22 = 52.3%
Expected Number Correct: 26.761 = 63.7%
Average Error: 13.47
Average Signed Error: 1.8


SYSTEM RANKINGS