College Football Predictions

WEEK 1

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 42 - FCS Team 10 33.4 Air Force 48 - FCS Team 17
Akron 28 - FCS Team 21 6.1 Akron 30 - FCS Team 23
Alabama 48 - Utah State 14 32.8 0.971 Alabama 55 - Utah State 0 -21
Alabama Birmingham 41 - FCS Team 10 29.2 Alabama Birmingham 59 - FCS Team 0
Appalachian State 35 - North Carolina 27 8.9 0.706 Appalachian State 61 - North Carolina 63 10
Arizona State 45 - FCS Team 10 34.6 Arizona State 40 - FCS Team 3
Arkansas 27 - Cincinnati 31 4.1 0.625 Arkansas 31 - Cincinnati 24 -11
Arkansas State 38 - FCS Team 21 18 Arkansas State 58 - FCS Team 3
Auburn 48 - FCS Team 7 39.5 Auburn 42 - FCS Team 16
Baylor 45 - FCS Team 7 38.2 Baylor 69 - FCS Team 10
Boston College 28 - Rutgers 17 9.9 0.737 Boston College 21 - Rutgers 22 12
California 38 - FCS Team 10 27.8 California 34 - FCS Team 13
Central Florida 48 - FCS Team 14 34.3 Central Florida 56 - FCS Team 10
Charlotte 34 - FCS Team 21 11.6 Charlotte 24 - FCS Team 41
Coastal Carolina 25 - Army 24 1.9 0.544 Coastal Carolina 38 - Army 28 -9
Colorado 27 - Texas Christian 31 4.3 0.61 Colorado 13 - Texas Christian 38 21
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 24 6.5 Connecticut 28 - FCS Team 3
Duke 31 - Temple 24 6 0.646 Duke 30 - Temple 0 -23
East Carolina 24 - NC State 31 6.9 0.716 East Carolina 20 - NC State 21 -6
Eastern Michigan 41 - FCS Team 17 23.3 Eastern Michigan 42 - FCS Team 34
Florida 30 - Utah 31 0 0.501 Florida 29 - Utah 26 -4
Florida Atlantic 31 - Charlotte 14 14.8 0.797 Florida Atlantic 43 - Charlotte 13 -13
Florida International 31 - FCS Team 24 8.3 Florida International 38 - FCS Team 37
Florida State 42 - FCS Team 14 27.9 Florida State 47 - FCS Team 7
Fresno State 42 - FCS Team 13 30.3 Fresno State 35 - FCS Team 7
Georgia 41 - Oregon 17 22.4 0.921 Georgia 49 - Oregon 3 -22
Georgia Southern 35 - FCS Team 14 21.4 Georgia Southern 59 - FCS Team 7
Georgia Tech 14 - Clemson 41 27.1 0.929 Georgia Tech 10 - Clemson 41 4
Hawaii 34 - Vanderbilt 24 9.9 0.738 Hawaii 10 - Vanderbilt 63 63
Hawaii 28 - Western Kentucky 31 1.7 0.54 Hawaii 17 - Western Kentucky 49 29
Illinois 21 - Wyoming 20 2.1 0.54 Illinois 38 - Wyoming 6 -31
Indiana 27 - Illinois 21 5.1 0.627 Indiana 23 - Illinois 20 3
Iowa 45 - FCS Team 6 39.6 Iowa 7 - FCS Team 3
Iowa State 49 - FCS Team 7 43.1 Iowa State 42 - FCS Team 10
James Madison 7 - Middle Tennessee 13 5.8 0.616 James Madison 44 - Middle Tennessee 7 -43
Kansas 41 - FCS Team 24 16.5 Kansas 56 - FCS Team 0
Kansas State 45 - FCS Team 10 35.8 Kansas State 34 - FCS Team 0
Kentucky 28 - Miami OH 17 11.9 0.767 Kentucky 37 - Miami OH 13 -13
Louisiana Lafayette 42 - FCS Team 10 33.3 Louisiana Lafayette 24 - FCS Team 7
Louisiana State 34 - Florida State 24 9.5 0.75 Louisiana State 23 - Florida State 24 11
Marshall 38 - FCS Team 10 28.1 Marshall 55 - FCS Team 3
Maryland 31 - Buffalo 27 5.1 0.613 Maryland 31 - Buffalo 10 -17
Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 13 32.8 Miami FL 70 - FCS Team 13
Michigan 41 - Colorado State 17 24.1 0.889 Michigan 51 - Colorado State 7 -20
Michigan State 34 - Western Michigan 24 8.7 0.698 Michigan State 35 - Western Michigan 13 -12
Minnesota 41 - New Mexico St 13 27.8 0.975 Minnesota 38 - New Mexico St 0 -10
Miss State 34 - Memphis 24 9.2 0.73 Miss State 49 - Memphis 23 -16
Mississippi 38 - Troy 20 17 0.852 Mississippi 28 - Troy 10 0
Missouri 38 - Louisiana Tech 21 14.9 0.809 Missouri 52 - Louisiana Tech 24 -11
Navy 38 - FCS Team 13 25.2 Navy 7 - FCS Team 14
Nebraska 45 - FCS Team 13 32.5 Nebraska 38 - FCS Team 17
Nevada 38 - Texas State 17 18.3 0.85 Nevada 38 - Texas State 14 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - FCS Team 20 16.2 Nevada Las Vegas 52 - FCS Team 21
New Mexico 31 - FCS Team 17 13.4 New Mexico 41 - FCS Team 0
New Mexico St 21 - Nevada 35 15.2 0.829 New Mexico St 12 - Nevada 23 -3
North Carolina 49 - FCS Team 17 30.7 North Carolina 56 - FCS Team 24
North Texas 31 - Southern Methodist 38 6 0.649 North Texas 10 - Southern Methodist 48 31
Northern Illinois 41 - FCS Team 17 22.7 Northern Illinois 34 - FCS Team 27
Northwestern 24 - Nebraska 28 4.6 0.619 Northwestern 31 - Nebraska 28 -7
Ohio 24 - Florida Atlantic 20 3.3 0.587 Ohio 41 - Florida Atlantic 38 1
Ohio State 41 - Notre Dame 28 10.4 0.734 Ohio State 21 - Notre Dame 10 2
Oklahoma 52 - Texas El Paso 14 37.6 0.992 Oklahoma 45 - Texas El Paso 13 6
Oklahoma State 38 - Central Michigan 17 20.4 0.899 Oklahoma State 58 - Central Michigan 44 7
Old Dominion 20 - Virginia Tech 27 7.1 0.673 Old Dominion 20 - Virginia Tech 17 -10
Oregon State 24 - Boise State 31 7.4 0.705 Oregon State 34 - Boise State 17 -24
Pittsburgh 28 - West Virginia 24 4.6 0.629 Pittsburgh 38 - West Virginia 31 -3
Purdue 27 - Penn State 28 1.8 0.55 Purdue 31 - Penn State 35 3
San Diego State 31 - Arizona 14 15.6 0.802 San Diego State 20 - Arizona 38 35
San Jose State 35 - FCS Team 14 21.2 San Jose State 21 - FCS Team 17
South Alabama 34 - FCS Team 17 16.8 South Alabama 48 - FCS Team 7
South Carolina 31 - Georgia State 24 6.7 0.661 South Carolina 35 - Georgia State 14 -14
South Florida 21 - Brigham Young 35 13.5 0.812 South Florida 21 - Brigham Young 50 15
Southern California 35 - Rice 17 18.6 0.841 Southern California 66 - Rice 14 -34
Southern Miss 20 - Liberty 28 8.6 0.714 Southern Miss 27 - Liberty 29 -6
Stanford 41 - FCS Team 17 25.4 Stanford 41 - FCS Team 10
Syracuse 28 - Louisville 31 3.1 0.568 Syracuse 31 - Louisville 7 -27
Tennessee 35 - Ball State 24 13.3 0.776 Tennessee 59 - Ball State 10 -38
Texas 48 - Louisiana Monroe 20 28.7 0.932 Texas 52 - Louisiana Monroe 10 -14
Texas AM 49 - FCS Team 7 41.2 Texas AM 31 - FCS Team 0
Texas El Paso 24 - North Texas 28 3.3 0.588 Texas El Paso 13 - North Texas 31 14
Texas San Antonio 27 - Houston 28 2.9 0.573 Texas San Antonio 35 - Houston 37 1
Texas Tech 49 - FCS Team 17 32.4 Texas Tech 63 - FCS Team 10
Toledo 42 - FCS Team 14 28.7 Toledo 37 - FCS Team 0
Tulane 41 - Massachusetts 14 27.3 0.963 Tulane 42 - Massachusetts 10 -5
UCLA 45 - Bowling Green 14 28.8 0.95 UCLA 45 - Bowling Green 17 3
Utah State 38 - Connecticut 14 23.6 0.904 Utah State 31 - Connecticut 20 13
Vanderbilt 38 - FCS Team 21 16 Vanderbilt 42 - FCS Team 31
Virginia 45 - FCS Team 17 28.6 Virginia 34 - FCS Team 17
Wake Forest 52 - FCS Team 17 33.3 Wake Forest 44 - FCS Team 10
Washington 38 - Kent State 24 15.4 0.851 Washington 45 - Kent State 20 -11
Washington State 45 - FCS Team 14 30.4 Washington State 24 - FCS Team 17
Western Kentucky 42 - FCS Team 14 27.7 Western Kentucky 38 - FCS Team 27
Wisconsin 45 - FCS Team 3 41.9 Wisconsin 38 - FCS Team 0
Wyoming 21 - Tulsa 20 1.7 0.537 Wyoming 40 - Tulsa 37 -2


Number of FBS Games: 53
Number Correct: 41 = 77.3%
Expected Number Correct: 39.035 = 73.6%
Average Error: 14.47
Average Signed Error: -3.76

WEEK 2

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 28 - Colorado 20 9.7 0.753 Air Force 41 - Colorado 10 -23
Arizona 24 - Miss State 35 11 0.744 Arizona 17 - Miss State 39 11
Arkansas 31 - South Carolina 27 5.1 0.656 Arkansas 44 - South Carolina 30 -10
Army 27 - Texas San Antonio 17 11.1 0.763 Army 38 - Texas San Antonio 41 13
Auburn 35 - San Jose State 10 25.8 0.955 Auburn 24 - San Jose State 16 17
Ball State 30 - Western Michigan 31 1.5 0.535 Ball State 30 - Western Michigan 37 6
Bowling Green 28 - FCS Team 21 7.8 Bowling Green 57 - FCS Team 59
Brigham Young 27 - Baylor 24 2 0.556 Brigham Young 26 - Baylor 20 -3
Buffalo 41 - FCS Team 13 26.6 Buffalo 31 - FCS Team 37
California 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 10 19.7 0.893 California 20 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 15
Central Florida 38 - Louisville 28 11.1 0.746 Central Florida 14 - Louisville 20 16
Central Michigan 34 - South Alabama 17 14.7 0.804 Central Michigan 24 - South Alabama 38 31
Charlotte 17 - Maryland 34 14.4 0.774 Charlotte 21 - Maryland 56 18
Cincinnati 45 - FCS Team 7 39 Cincinnati 63 - FCS Team 10
Clemson 55 - FCS Team 3 51.4 Clemson 35 - FCS Team 12
Coastal Carolina 42 - FCS Team 13 30.1 Coastal Carolina 31 - FCS Team 27
Colorado State 28 - Middle Tennessee 27 0.2 0.507 Colorado State 19 - Middle Tennessee 34 16
Connecticut 17 - Syracuse 31 16.6 0.801 Connecticut 14 - Syracuse 48 20
East Carolina 28 - Old Dominion 17 10.7 0.764 East Carolina 39 - Old Dominion 21 -7
Florida 31 - Kentucky 24 7.7 0.711 Florida 16 - Kentucky 26 17
Florida Atlantic 38 - FCS Team 13 24.7 Florida Atlantic 42 - FCS Team 9
Fresno State 31 - Oregon State 27 3.5 0.598 Fresno State 32 - Oregon State 35 7
Georgia 56 - FCS Team 0 55.9 Georgia 33 - FCS Team 0
Georgia State 34 - North Carolina 41 6.5 0.67 Georgia State 28 - North Carolina 35 0
Georgia Tech 41 - FCS Team 17 22.5 Georgia Tech 35 - FCS Team 17
Illinois 28 - Virginia 31 1.3 0.528 Illinois 24 - Virginia 3 -24
Indiana 42 - FCS Team 10 33 Indiana 35 - FCS Team 22
Iowa 25 - Iowa State 24 0.6 0.518 Iowa 7 - Iowa State 10 4
James Madison 38 - FCS Team 3 35.3 James Madison 63 - FCS Team 7
Kansas State 34 - Missouri 27 6.8 0.692 Kansas State 40 - Missouri 12 -21
Liberty 25 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.1 0.504 Liberty 21 - Alabama Birmingham 14 -6
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Eastern Michigan 21 11.3 0.765 Louisiana Lafayette 49 - Eastern Michigan 21 -18
Louisiana Monroe 35 - FCS Team 24 11.9 Louisiana Monroe 35 - FCS Team 7
Louisiana State 49 - FCS Team 10 39.3 Louisiana State 65 - FCS Team 17
Louisiana Tech 35 - FCS Team 17 17.7 Louisiana Tech 52 - FCS Team 17
Miami FL 35 - Southern Miss 14 19.4 0.862 Miami FL 30 - Southern Miss 7 -2
Miami OH 38 - FCS Team 10 27.1 Miami OH 31 - FCS Team 14
Michigan 45 - Hawaii 17 28 0.957 Michigan 56 - Hawaii 10 -18
Michigan State 38 - Akron 7 30.8 0.967 Michigan State 52 - Akron 0 -21
Minnesota 45 - FCS Team 10 35.4 Minnesota 62 - FCS Team 10
Mississippi 49 - FCS Team 14 35.8 Mississippi 59 - FCS Team 3
Navy 26 - Memphis 27 0.3 0.511 Navy 13 - Memphis 37 23
NC State 42 - FCS Team 10 32.7 NC State 55 - FCS Team 3
Nebraska 31 - Georgia Southern 20 10.9 0.75 Nebraska 42 - Georgia Southern 45 14
Nevada 38 - FCS Team 13 25.7 Nevada 41 - FCS Team 55
New Mexico 14 - Boise State 31 17.9 0.866 New Mexico 14 - Boise State 31 0
North Texas 38 - FCS Team 20 17.7 North Texas 59 - FCS Team 27
Northwestern 34 - Duke 14 17.9 0.799 Northwestern 23 - Duke 31 28
Notre Dame 31 - Marshall 10 21.2 0.894 Notre Dame 21 - Marshall 26 26
Ohio State 55 - Arkansas State 14 38.3 0.99 Ohio State 45 - Arkansas State 12 8
Oklahoma 56 - Kent State 24 33.2 0.991 Oklahoma 33 - Kent State 3 2
Oklahoma State 38 - Arizona State 28 10.4 0.751 Oklahoma State 34 - Arizona State 17 -7
Oregon 48 - FCS Team 13 35.1 Oregon 70 - FCS Team 14
Penn State 38 - Ohio 20 18.7 0.909 Penn State 46 - Ohio 10 -18
Pittsburgh 31 - Tennessee 28 3.1 0.585 Pittsburgh 27 - Tennessee 34 10
Purdue 48 - FCS Team 14 34.5 Purdue 56 - FCS Team 0
Rice 31 - FCS Team 17 12.3 Rice 52 - FCS Team 10
Rutgers 38 - FCS Team 14 22 Rutgers 66 - FCS Team 7
San Diego State 35 - FCS Team 10 26.5 San Diego State 38 - FCS Team 7
South Florida 38 - FCS Team 21 17.2 South Florida 42 - FCS Team 20
Southern Methodist 48 - FCS Team 17 31.2 Southern Methodist 45 - FCS Team 16
Stanford 31 - Southern California 34 3.3 0.591 Stanford 28 - Southern California 41 10
Temple 28 - FCS Team 17 10.4 Temple 30 - FCS Team 14
Texas 28 - Alabama 42 13.4 0.799 Texas 19 - Alabama 20 -13
Texas AM 35 - Appalachian State 24 10.4 0.753 Texas AM 14 - Appalachian State 17 14
Texas Christian 48 - FCS Team 10 37.3 Texas Christian 59 - FCS Team 17
Texas El Paso 21 - New Mexico St 20 0.7 0.524 Texas El Paso 20 - New Mexico St 13 -6
Texas State 28 - Florida International 24 5.7 0.659 Texas State 41 - Florida International 12 -25
Texas Tech 38 - Houston 31 7.5 0.698 Texas Tech 33 - Houston 30 4
Toledo 42 - Massachusetts 13 31.1 0.989 Toledo 55 - Massachusetts 10 -16
Troy 38 - FCS Team 13 25.3 Troy 38 - FCS Team 17
Tulane 41 - FCS Team 13 26.8 Tulane 52 - FCS Team 0
Tulsa 31 - Northern Illinois 24 5.7 0.679 Tulsa 38 - Northern Illinois 35 4
UCLA 48 - FCS Team 14 32.7 UCLA 45 - FCS Team 7
Utah 48 - FCS Team 10 38.6 Utah 73 - FCS Team 7
Utah State 38 - FCS Team 17 21.5 Utah State 7 - FCS Team 35
Vanderbilt 31 - Wake Forest 38 6.8 0.658 Vanderbilt 25 - Wake Forest 45 13
Virginia Tech 27 - Boston College 24 3.6 0.587 Virginia Tech 27 - Boston College 10 -14
Washington 42 - FCS Team 7 34.9 Washington 52 - FCS Team 6
West Virginia 42 - Kansas 21 20.2 0.866 West Virginia 42 - Kansas 55 34
Wisconsin 34 - Washington State 17 14.9 0.797 Wisconsin 14 - Washington State 17 20
Wyoming 35 - FCS Team 10 23.9 Wyoming 33 - FCS Team 10


Number of FBS Games: 47
Number Correct: 32 = 68%
Expected Number Correct: 34.669 = 73.7%
Average Error: 13.89
Average Signed Error: 3.17

WEEK 3

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 56 - Louisiana Monroe 10 47.2 0.992 Alabama 63 - Louisiana Monroe 7 -10
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Georgia Southern 20 4.7 0.627 Alabama Birmingham 35 - Georgia Southern 21 -10
Appalachian State 34 - Troy 17 15.8 0.816 Appalachian State 32 - Troy 28 13
Arizona 41 - FCS Team 17 23 Arizona 31 - FCS Team 28
Arizona State 35 - Eastern Michigan 21 15.6 0.849 Arizona State 21 - Eastern Michigan 30 23
Arkansas 52 - FCS Team 14 36.5 Arkansas 38 - FCS Team 27
Army 41 - FCS Team 13 29.7 Army 49 - FCS Team 10
Auburn 26 - Penn State 27 1 0.527 Auburn 12 - Penn State 41 28
Ball State 41 - FCS Team 20 20.9 Ball State 31 - FCS Team 0
Baylor 35 - Texas State 10 25.7 0.965 Baylor 42 - Texas State 7 -10
Boise State 42 - FCS Team 13 30.8 Boise State 30 - FCS Team 7
Boston College 38 - FCS Team 14 25.2 Boston College 38 - FCS Team 17
Bowling Green 13 - Marshall 31 19.7 0.863 Bowling Green 34 - Marshall 31 -21
Central Michigan 45 - FCS Team 17 26.4 Central Michigan 41 - FCS Team 0
Cincinnati 31 - Miami OH 17 16.4 0.849 Cincinnati 38 - Miami OH 17 -7
Clemson 49 - Louisiana Tech 10 38 0.989 Clemson 48 - Louisiana Tech 20 11
Coastal Carolina 31 - Buffalo 20 11.7 0.779 Coastal Carolina 38 - Buffalo 26 -1
Duke 38 - FCS Team 17 21.4 Duke 49 - FCS Team 20
East Carolina 42 - FCS Team 17 26.1 East Carolina 49 - FCS Team 10
Florida 45 - South Florida 20 25.2 0.961 Florida 31 - South Florida 28 22
Florida Atlantic 24 - Central Florida 31 5.7 0.671 Florida Atlantic 14 - Central Florida 40 19
Georgia State 35 - Charlotte 17 19.3 0.864 Georgia State 41 - Charlotte 42 19
Georgia Tech 27 - Mississippi 38 11.9 0.774 Georgia Tech 0 - Mississippi 42 31
Hawaii 38 - FCS Team 21 15.4 Hawaii 24 - FCS Team 14
Houston 42 - Kansas 34 10 0.739 Houston 30 - Kansas 48 26
Indiana 31 - Western Kentucky 21 8.3 0.726 Indiana 33 - Western Kentucky 30 7
Iowa 31 - Nevada 13 17.4 0.846 Iowa 27 - Nevada 0 -9
Iowa State 38 - Ohio 14 23.1 0.947 Iowa State 43 - Ohio 10 -9
Kansas State 35 - Tulane 17 17.6 0.868 Kansas State 10 - Tulane 17 25
Kent State 41 - FCS Team 24 17.6 Kent State 63 - FCS Team 10
Kentucky 48 - FCS Team 7 39.1 Kentucky 31 - FCS Team 0
Louisiana State 31 - Miss State 28 2.3 0.561 Louisiana State 31 - Miss State 16 -12
Louisville 28 - Florida State 27 2.6 0.568 Louisville 31 - Florida State 35 5
Maryland 31 - Southern Methodist 34 1.9 0.539 Maryland 34 - Southern Methodist 27 -10
Massachusetts 26 - FCS Team 27 0.3 Massachusetts 20 - FCS Team 3
Memphis 38 - Arkansas State 27 12.4 0.801 Memphis 44 - Arkansas State 32 -1
Michigan 45 - Connecticut 10 36.5 0.991 Michigan 59 - Connecticut 0 -24
Middle Tennessee 38 - FCS Team 17 23.4 Middle Tennessee 49 - FCS Team 6
Minnesota 34 - Colorado 14 18.6 0.865 Minnesota 49 - Colorado 7 -22
Missouri 48 - FCS Team 17 31 Missouri 34 - FCS Team 17
NC State 31 - Texas Tech 28 3.5 0.6 NC State 27 - Texas Tech 14 -10
Nebraska 27 - Oklahoma 42 16.7 0.857 Nebraska 14 - Oklahoma 49 20
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - North Texas 24 0.6 0.521 Nevada Las Vegas 58 - North Texas 27 -28
New Mexico 24 - Texas El Paso 17 5.6 0.697 New Mexico 27 - Texas El Paso 10 -10
Northern Illinois 32 - Vanderbilt 31 1 0.525 Northern Illinois 28 - Vanderbilt 38 11
Northwestern 38 - FCS Team 10 28.8 Northwestern 24 - FCS Team 31
Notre Dame 28 - California 10 17.7 0.858 Notre Dame 24 - California 17 11
Ohio State 45 - Toledo 21 24.9 0.947 Ohio State 77 - Toledo 21 -32
Oklahoma State 56 - FCS Team 13 43.7 Oklahoma State 63 - FCS Team 7
Oregon 28 - Brigham Young 31 1.7 0.545 Oregon 41 - Brigham Young 20 -24
Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 17 27.4 Oregon State 68 - FCS Team 28
Rice 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 35 21.6 0.885 Rice 33 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 -33
South Carolina 17 - Georgia 41 21.2 0.926 South Carolina 7 - Georgia 48 17
Southern California 38 - Fresno State 27 9.8 0.756 Southern California 45 - Fresno State 17 -17
Southern Miss 34 - FCS Team 17 18.6 Southern Miss 64 - FCS Team 10
Syracuse 30 - Purdue 31 1.2 0.528 Syracuse 32 - Purdue 29 -4
Temple 14 - Rutgers 24 9.3 0.739 Temple 14 - Rutgers 16 -8
Tennessee 45 - Akron 7 36.5 0.99 Tennessee 63 - Akron 6 -19
Texas 45 - Texas San Antonio 17 25.1 0.956 Texas 41 - Texas San Antonio 20 7
Texas AM 27 - Miami FL 20 8 0.725 Texas AM 17 - Miami FL 9 -1
Tulsa 41 - FCS Team 17 25 Tulsa 54 - FCS Team 17
UCLA 35 - South Alabama 21 13.4 0.789 UCLA 32 - South Alabama 31 13
Utah 31 - San Diego State 17 15.9 0.816 Utah 35 - San Diego State 7 -14
Virginia 28 - Old Dominion 17 13.2 0.787 Virginia 16 - Old Dominion 14 9
Virginia Tech 41 - FCS Team 13 29.6 Virginia Tech 27 - FCS Team 7
Wake Forest 38 - Liberty 27 13.3 0.793 Wake Forest 37 - Liberty 36 10
Washington 25 - Michigan State 24 1.8 0.551 Washington 39 - Michigan State 28 -10
Washington State 38 - Colorado State 17 19.3 0.878 Washington State 38 - Colorado State 7 -10
West Virginia 48 - FCS Team 14 32.9 West Virginia 65 - FCS Team 7
Western Michigan 27 - Pittsburgh 34 6.3 0.68 Western Michigan 13 - Pittsburgh 34 14
Wisconsin 34 - New Mexico St 0 33.6 0.99 Wisconsin 66 - New Mexico St 7 -25
Wyoming 20 - Air Force 24 6.5 0.687 Wyoming 17 - Air Force 14 -7


Number of FBS Games: 50
Number Correct: 38 = 76%
Expected Number Correct: 39.003 = 78%
Average Error: 14.78
Average Signed Error: -1.14

WEEK 4

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Nevada 17 9.4 0.748 Air Force 48 - Nevada 20 -18
Alabama 52 - Vanderbilt 14 37.1 0.984 Alabama 55 - Vanderbilt 3 -14
Appalachian State 21 - James Madison 27 6.1 0.713 Appalachian State 28 - James Madison 32 -2
Arizona State 24 - Utah 28 5.4 0.632 Arizona State 13 - Utah 34 17
Auburn 34 - Missouri 24 9.2 0.727 Auburn 17 - Missouri 14 7
Brigham Young 31 - Wyoming 17 14.3 0.798 Brigham Young 38 - Wyoming 24 0
California 28 - Arizona 17 11.2 0.762 California 49 - Arizona 31 -7
Central Florida 38 - Georgia Tech 17 20.6 0.902 Central Florida 27 - Georgia Tech 10 4
Cincinnati 31 - Indiana 20 9.4 0.757 Cincinnati 45 - Indiana 24 -10
Colorado 24 - UCLA 38 13.9 0.794 Colorado 17 - UCLA 45 14
Colorado State 35 - FCS Team 20 17.4 Colorado State 10 - FCS Team 41
East Carolina 31 - Navy 17 11.6 0.779 East Carolina 20 - Navy 23 17
Eastern Michigan 28 - Buffalo 27 2 0.55 Eastern Michigan 31 - Buffalo 50 20
Florida State 34 - Boston College 20 12.2 0.814 Florida State 44 - Boston College 14 -16
Georgia 52 - Kent State 10 44.5 0.992 Georgia 39 - Kent State 22 25
Georgia Southern 31 - Ball State 24 6.7 0.7 Georgia Southern 34 - Ball State 23 -4
Georgia State 27 - Coastal Carolina 34 7 0.698 Georgia State 24 - Coastal Carolina 41 10
Houston 35 - Rice 21 12.8 0.752 Houston 34 - Rice 27 7
Illinois 42 - FCS Team 10 31.5 Illinois 31 - FCS Team 0
Iowa State 28 - Baylor 17 11.7 0.779 Iowa State 24 - Baylor 31 18
Kansas 38 - Duke 31 8.9 0.687 Kansas 35 - Duke 27 -1
Kentucky 38 - Northern Illinois 17 20.6 0.959 Kentucky 31 - Northern Illinois 23 13
Liberty 38 - Akron 10 28.4 0.97 Liberty 21 - Akron 12 19
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 38 13.2 0.759 Louisiana Monroe 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 -18
Louisiana State 38 - New Mexico 10 29.8 0.979 Louisiana State 38 - New Mexico 0 -10
Louisville 38 - South Florida 24 13.8 0.791 Louisville 41 - South Florida 3 -24
Memphis 42 - North Texas 24 18.8 0.856 Memphis 44 - North Texas 34 8
Miami FL 31 - Middle Tennessee 17 14.2 0.819 Miami FL 31 - Middle Tennessee 45 28
Michigan 38 - Maryland 24 16 0.82 Michigan 34 - Maryland 27 7
Michigan State 23 - Minnesota 24 0 0.503 Michigan State 7 - Minnesota 34 26
Miss State 41 - Bowling Green 14 26.5 0.93 Miss State 45 - Bowling Green 14 -4
Mississippi 38 - Tulsa 21 17.1 0.912 Mississippi 35 - Tulsa 27 9
NC State 41 - Connecticut 7 32.3 0.992 NC State 41 - Connecticut 10 3
New Mexico St 21 - Hawaii 27 3.9 0.607 New Mexico St 45 - Hawaii 26 -25
North Carolina 31 - Notre Dame 35 6 0.661 North Carolina 32 - Notre Dame 45 9
Northwestern 24 - Miami OH 20 4.5 0.639 Northwestern 14 - Miami OH 17 7
Ohio 42 - FCS Team 17 24.2 Ohio 59 - FCS Team 52
Ohio State 38 - Wisconsin 24 14.2 0.786 Ohio State 52 - Wisconsin 21 -17
Oklahoma 35 - Kansas State 21 14.5 0.806 Oklahoma 34 - Kansas State 41 21
Old Dominion 25 - Arkansas State 24 0.8 0.526 Old Dominion 29 - Arkansas State 26 -2
Oregon State 31 - Southern California 38 7.6 0.697 Oregon State 14 - Southern California 17 -4
Penn State 42 - Central Michigan 21 21.5 0.944 Penn State 33 - Central Michigan 14 2
Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 10 36.8 Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 24
Purdue 38 - Florida Atlantic 20 16.9 0.846 Purdue 28 - Florida Atlantic 26 16
Rutgers 6 - Iowa 27 20.9 0.879 Rutgers 10 - Iowa 27 -4
San Diego State 28 - Toledo 27 0.7 0.522 San Diego State 17 - Toledo 14 -2
San Jose State 26 - Western Michigan 27 1.4 0.537 San Jose State 34 - Western Michigan 6 -29
South Alabama 34 - Louisiana Tech 20 12.7 0.784 South Alabama 38 - Louisiana Tech 14 -10
South Carolina 41 - Charlotte 17 24.1 0.931 South Carolina 56 - Charlotte 20 -12
Southern Methodist 30 - Texas Christian 31 0 0.501 Southern Methodist 34 - Texas Christian 42 7
Syracuse 31 - Virginia 21 9 0.722 Syracuse 22 - Virginia 20 8
Temple 28 - Massachusetts 13 15.4 0.839 Temple 28 - Massachusetts 0 -13
Tennessee 34 - Florida 28 4.5 0.636 Tennessee 38 - Florida 33 1
Texas AM 31 - Arkansas 24 5.6 0.699 Texas AM 23 - Arkansas 21 5
Texas El Paso 10 - Boise State 31 21.1 0.927 Texas El Paso 27 - Boise State 10 -38
Texas San Antonio 41 - FCS Team 17 24.4 Texas San Antonio 52 - FCS Team 24
Texas State 34 - FCS Team 20 13.1 Texas State 34 - FCS Team 0
Texas Tech 27 - Texas 38 10.2 0.763 Texas Tech 37 - Texas 34 -14
Troy 24 - Marshall 21 1.6 0.536 Troy 16 - Marshall 7 -6
Tulane 31 - Southern Miss 13 16.3 0.812 Tulane 24 - Southern Miss 27 21
Utah State 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 4.1 0.603 Utah State 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 34 14
Virginia Tech 27 - West Virginia 28 1 0.526 Virginia Tech 10 - West Virginia 33 22
Wake Forest 31 - Clemson 38 7.5 0.713 Wake Forest 45 - Clemson 51 -1
Washington 35 - Stanford 24 12.5 0.788 Washington 40 - Stanford 22 -7
Washington State 29 - Oregon 28 0.4 0.514 Washington State 41 - Oregon 44 4
Western Kentucky 42 - Florida International 14 28.2 0.972 Western Kentucky 73 - Florida International 0 -45


Number of FBS Games: 60
Number Correct: 46 = 76.6%
Expected Number Correct: 45.574 = 75.9%
Average Error: 12.43
Average Signed Error: 0.53

WEEK 5

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Navy 14 12.7 0.783 Air Force 13 - Navy 10 10
Akron 21 - Bowling Green 27 4.4 0.611 Akron 28 - Bowling Green 31 -3
Appalachian State 49 - FCS Team 13 37.8 Appalachian State 49 - FCS Team 0
Arizona 34 - Colorado 27 6 0.676 Arizona 43 - Colorado 20 -16
Arkansas 24 - Alabama 42 19.1 0.906 Arkansas 26 - Alabama 49 5
Arkansas State 34 - Louisiana Monroe 27 7.8 0.719 Arkansas State 45 - Louisiana Monroe 28 -10
Army 34 - Georgia State 21 11.6 0.778 Army 14 - Georgia State 31 30
Auburn 21 - Louisiana State 27 4.2 0.623 Auburn 17 - Louisiana State 21 -2
Ball State 27 - Northern Illinois 31 4.5 0.64 Ball State 44 - Northern Illinois 38 -10
Baylor 30 - Oklahoma State 31 0.4 0.515 Baylor 25 - Oklahoma State 36 10
Boise State 20 - San Diego State 17 4.2 0.604 Boise State 35 - San Diego State 13 -19
Boston College 21 - Louisville 31 9 0.727 Boston College 34 - Louisville 33 -11
Brigham Young 38 - Utah State 20 18.2 0.87 Brigham Young 38 - Utah State 26 6
Buffalo 27 - Miami OH 24 3.9 0.629 Buffalo 24 - Miami OH 20 -1
Charlotte 27 - Texas El Paso 24 2.4 0.556 Charlotte 35 - Texas El Paso 41 9
Clemson 38 - NC State 24 13.4 0.832 Clemson 30 - NC State 20 4
Coastal Carolina 34 - Georgia Southern 20 13.4 0.848 Coastal Carolina 34 - Georgia Southern 30 10
Connecticut 20 - Fresno State 34 14.6 0.827 Connecticut 19 - Fresno State 14 -19
Duke 23 - Virginia 24 0.7 0.521 Duke 38 - Virginia 17 -22
Eastern Michigan 41 - Massachusetts 13 27.2 0.969 Eastern Michigan 20 - Massachusetts 13 21
Florida 49 - FCS Team 13 37 Florida 52 - FCS Team 17
Florida State 38 - Wake Forest 35 3.7 0.625 Florida State 21 - Wake Forest 31 13
Houston 31 - Tulane 27 4.5 0.615 Houston 24 - Tulane 27 7
Iowa 25 - Michigan 24 0.5 0.52 Iowa 14 - Michigan 27 14
James Madison 38 - Texas State 6 33.1 0.986 James Madison 40 - Texas State 13 5
Kansas 27 - Iowa State 38 10.3 0.748 Kansas 14 - Iowa State 11 -14
Kansas State 34 - Texas Tech 27 7 0.673 Kansas State 37 - Texas Tech 28 -2
Kent State 35 - Ohio 31 5.3 0.656 Kent State 31 - Ohio 24 -3
Louisiana Lafayette 24 - South Alabama 21 3 0.572 Louisiana Lafayette 17 - South Alabama 20 6
Marshall 38 - FCS Team 10 26.3 Marshall 28 - FCS Team 7
Maryland 28 - Michigan State 24 4.1 0.617 Maryland 27 - Michigan State 13 -10
Memphis 35 - Temple 14 20.3 0.926 Memphis 24 - Temple 3 0
Middle Tennessee 31 - Texas San Antonio 28 4 0.605 Middle Tennessee 30 - Texas San Antonio 45 18
Minnesota 34 - Purdue 20 13 0.787 Minnesota 10 - Purdue 20 24
Miss State 25 - Texas AM 24 0.5 0.521 Miss State 42 - Texas AM 24 -17
Mississippi 31 - Kentucky 24 5.4 0.683 Mississippi 22 - Kentucky 19 4
Missouri 17 - Georgia 42 24 0.925 Missouri 22 - Georgia 26 -21
Nebraska 27 - Indiana 34 5.6 0.657 Nebraska 35 - Indiana 21 -21
Nevada Las Vegas 31 - New Mexico 17 12.8 0.779 Nevada Las Vegas 31 - New Mexico 20 3
New Mexico St 31 - Florida International 17 14.7 0.793 New Mexico St 7 - Florida International 21 28
North Carolina 38 - Virginia Tech 31 8.7 0.724 North Carolina 41 - Virginia Tech 10 -24
North Texas 27 - Florida Atlantic 31 4.6 0.613 North Texas 45 - Florida Atlantic 28 -21
Ohio State 48 - Rutgers 10 38.7 0.989 Ohio State 49 - Rutgers 10 -1
Old Dominion 20 - Liberty 24 4.2 0.624 Old Dominion 24 - Liberty 38 10
Oregon 41 - Stanford 27 14.4 0.802 Oregon 45 - Stanford 27 -4
Penn State 34 - Northwestern 14 20.7 0.944 Penn State 17 - Northwestern 7 10
Pittsburgh 35 - Georgia Tech 14 21 0.929 Pittsburgh 21 - Georgia Tech 26 26
Rice 17 - Alabama Birmingham 21 5.8 0.645 Rice 28 - Alabama Birmingham 24 -8
South Carolina 45 - FCS Team 14 31.1 South Carolina 50 - FCS Team 10
South Florida 27 - East Carolina 31 5.5 0.655 South Florida 28 - East Carolina 48 16
Southern California 35 - Arizona State 20 14.2 0.777 Southern California 42 - Arizona State 25 -2
Syracuse 45 - FCS Team 13 32 Syracuse 59 - FCS Team 0
Texas 38 - West Virginia 27 13.2 0.796 Texas 38 - West Virginia 20 -7
Texas Christian 34 - Oklahoma 41 6.3 0.699 Texas Christian 55 - Oklahoma 24 -38
Toledo 32 - Central Michigan 31 0.7 0.524 Toledo 38 - Central Michigan 17 -20
Tulsa 27 - Cincinnati 35 9.5 0.78 Tulsa 21 - Cincinnati 31 2
UCLA 33 - Washington 34 0 0.502 UCLA 40 - Washington 32 -9
Utah 34 - Oregon State 20 14.5 0.83 Utah 42 - Oregon State 16 -12
Washington State 31 - California 24 6.1 0.709 Washington State 28 - California 9 -12
Western Kentucky 27 - Troy 21 4.3 0.617 Western Kentucky 27 - Troy 34 13
Western Michigan 38 - FCS Team 20 20.5 Western Michigan 44 - FCS Team 7
Wisconsin 28 - Illinois 17 11.6 0.747 Wisconsin 10 - Illinois 34 35
Wyoming 24 - San Jose State 17 4.3 0.604 Wyoming 16 - San Jose State 33 24


Number of FBS Games: 57
Number Correct: 34 = 59.6%
Expected Number Correct: 40.832 = 71.6%
Average Error: 12.66
Average Signed Error: 0.07

WEEK 6

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 42 - Texas AM 17 24.5 0.968 Alabama 24 - Texas AM 20 21
Alabama Birmingham 28 - Middle Tennessee 21 6.9 0.686 Alabama Birmingham 41 - Middle Tennessee 14 -20
Arizona 31 - Oregon 41 10.6 0.746 Arizona 22 - Oregon 49 17
Arizona State 24 - Washington 31 5.5 0.661 Arizona State 45 - Washington 38 -14
Arkansas State 21 - James Madison 34 11.2 0.789 Arkansas State 20 - James Madison 42 9
Boise State 28 - Fresno State 17 9.7 0.717 Boise State 40 - Fresno State 20 -9
Boston College 20 - Clemson 42 21.6 0.927 Boston College 3 - Clemson 31 6
Bowling Green 21 - Buffalo 34 10.9 0.773 Bowling Green 7 - Buffalo 38 18
Brigham Young 24 - Notre Dame 28 3.5 0.599 Brigham Young 20 - Notre Dame 28 4
Central Florida 34 - Southern Methodist 28 4.3 0.637 Central Florida 41 - Southern Methodist 19 -16
Central Michigan 34 - Ball State 27 7.5 0.706 Central Michigan 16 - Ball State 17 8
Cincinnati 45 - South Florida 17 28.2 0.978 Cincinnati 28 - South Florida 24 24
Florida 34 - Missouri 27 6.2 0.659 Florida 24 - Missouri 17 0
Florida International 17 - Connecticut 24 4.6 0.604 Florida International 12 - Connecticut 33 14
Georgia 34 - Auburn 14 18.9 0.827 Georgia 42 - Auburn 10 -12
Georgia State 28 - Georgia Southern 27 1.4 0.535 Georgia State 41 - Georgia Southern 33 -7
Georgia Tech 24 - Duke 28 3 0.558 Georgia Tech 23 - Duke 20 -7
Illinois 17 - Iowa 20 1.5 0.533 Illinois 9 - Iowa 6 -6
Indiana 24 - Michigan 35 11.9 0.773 Indiana 10 - Michigan 31 10
Iowa State 27 - Kansas State 24 4.7 0.626 Iowa State 9 - Kansas State 10 4
Kansas 34 - Texas Christian 41 8.3 0.691 Kansas 31 - Texas Christian 38 0
Kentucky 31 - South Carolina 21 9.9 0.758 Kentucky 14 - South Carolina 24 20
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Coastal Carolina 38 13.4 0.805 Louisiana Monroe 21 - Coastal Carolina 28 -7
Louisiana State 34 - Tennessee 27 6.7 0.697 Louisiana State 13 - Tennessee 40 34
Louisiana Tech 28 - Texas El Paso 20 8.6 0.737 Louisiana Tech 41 - Texas El Paso 31 -2
Maryland 28 - Purdue 24 3.9 0.604 Maryland 29 - Purdue 31 6
Massachusetts 7 - Liberty 34 25.9 0.971 Massachusetts 24 - Liberty 42 -9
Memphis 35 - Houston 28 6.4 0.717 Memphis 32 - Houston 33 8
Miami FL 34 - North Carolina 35 0.6 0.519 Miami FL 24 - North Carolina 27 2
Miami OH 28 - Kent State 24 6.6 0.702 Miami OH 27 - Kent State 24 1
Michigan State 21 - Ohio State 42 21.6 0.898 Michigan State 20 - Ohio State 49 8
Miss State 38 - Arkansas 28 7.5 0.729 Miss State 40 - Arkansas 17 -13
Navy 22 - Tulsa 21 0.1 0.507 Navy 53 - Tulsa 21 -31
NC State 28 - Florida State 24 6.2 0.721 NC State 19 - Florida State 17 2
Nevada 28 - Colorado State 20 8.7 0.723 Nevada 14 - Colorado State 17 11
New Mexico 17 - Wyoming 21 6.3 0.678 New Mexico 14 - Wyoming 27 9
Northern Illinois 31 - Toledo 34 1.9 0.546 Northern Illinois 32 - Toledo 52 17
Northwestern 17 - Wisconsin 24 4.2 0.619 Northwestern 7 - Wisconsin 42 28
Ohio 34 - Akron 17 17.1 0.868 Ohio 55 - Akron 34 -4
Oklahoma State 42 - Texas Tech 31 12.1 0.773 Oklahoma State 41 - Texas Tech 31 1
Pittsburgh 31 - Virginia Tech 17 12.3 0.757 Pittsburgh 45 - Virginia Tech 29 -2
Rutgers 27 - Nebraska 28 2.7 0.566 Rutgers 13 - Nebraska 14 0
San Diego State 31 - Hawaii 13 17.7 0.808 San Diego State 16 - Hawaii 14 16
San Jose State 28 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 8.1 0.704 San Jose State 40 - Nevada Las Vegas 7 -26
Southern California 34 - Washington State 28 4.4 0.625 Southern California 30 - Washington State 14 -10
Stanford 31 - Oregon State 28 2.5 0.58 Stanford 27 - Oregon State 28 4
Texas 38 - Oklahoma 34 4.4 0.617 Texas 49 - Oklahoma 0 -45
Texas San Antonio 32 - Western Kentucky 31 1.1 0.528 Texas San Antonio 31 - Western Kentucky 28 -2
Texas State 17 - Appalachian State 38 20 0.908 Texas State 36 - Appalachian State 24 -33
Troy 27 - Southern Miss 13 13.9 0.791 Troy 27 - Southern Miss 10 -3
Tulane 31 - East Carolina 24 6.4 0.687 Tulane 24 - East Carolina 9 -8
UCLA 30 - Utah 31 1.6 0.543 UCLA 42 - Utah 32 -11
Utah State 20 - Air Force 27 6.6 0.702 Utah State 34 - Air Force 27 -14
Vanderbilt 24 - Mississippi 38 15.4 0.824 Vanderbilt 28 - Mississippi 52 10
Virginia 24 - Louisville 27 1.5 0.532 Virginia 17 - Louisville 34 14
Wake Forest 38 - Army 24 15.8 0.833 Wake Forest 45 - Army 10 -21
Western Michigan 31 - Eastern Michigan 24 6.2 0.674 Western Michigan 23 - Eastern Michigan 45 29


Number of FBS Games: 57
Number Correct: 42 = 73.6%
Expected Number Correct: 40.244 = 70.6%
Average Error: 12.05
Average Signed Error: 0.4

WEEK 7

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Central Michigan 31 13.3 0.794 Akron 21 - Central Michigan 28 -7
Alabama Birmingham 38 - Charlotte 14 23.1 0.912 Alabama Birmingham 34 - Charlotte 20 10
Army 38 - FCS Team 14 23.3 Army 42 - FCS Team 17
Ball State 28 - Connecticut 17 11.3 0.793 Ball State 25 - Connecticut 21 7
Bowling Green 17 - Miami OH 27 9.7 0.756 Bowling Green 17 - Miami OH 13 -14
Brigham Young 35 - Arkansas 31 4.8 0.667 Brigham Young 35 - Arkansas 52 21
Central Florida 34 - Temple 6 27.8 0.972 Central Florida 70 - Temple 13 -29
Coastal Carolina 34 - Old Dominion 14 17.5 0.925 Coastal Carolina 21 - Old Dominion 49 48
Colorado 17 - California 28 10.3 0.766 Colorado 20 - California 13 -18
Colorado State 24 - Utah State 27 4.1 0.616 Colorado State 13 - Utah State 17 1
Duke 34 - North Carolina 38 3.6 0.585 Duke 35 - North Carolina 38 -1
East Carolina 28 - Memphis 31 2.5 0.579 East Carolina 47 - Memphis 45 -5
Eastern Michigan 35 - Northern Illinois 28 6 0.671 Eastern Michigan 10 - Northern Illinois 39 36
Florida 29 - Louisiana State 28 1.2 0.53 Florida 35 - Louisiana State 45 11
Florida Atlantic 27 - Rice 24 2.5 0.548 Florida Atlantic 17 - Rice 14 0
Florida International 13 - Texas San Antonio 38 23.1 0.893 Florida International 10 - Texas San Antonio 30 -5
Florida State 24 - Clemson 35 11.4 0.834 Florida State 28 - Clemson 34 -5
Fresno State 17 - San Jose State 27 9.8 0.725 Fresno State 17 - San Jose State 10 -17
Georgia 49 - Vanderbilt 14 34.6 0.969 Georgia 55 - Vanderbilt 0 -20
Georgia Southern 20 - James Madison 31 10.8 0.808 Georgia Southern 45 - James Madison 38 -18
Hawaii 20 - Nevada 28 7.5 0.675 Hawaii 31 - Nevada 16 -23
Illinois 21 - Minnesota 20 1.3 0.528 Illinois 26 - Minnesota 14 -11
Indiana 27 - Maryland 28 3.1 0.589 Indiana 33 - Maryland 38 4
Kentucky 24 - Miss State 28 3.8 0.6 Kentucky 27 - Miss State 17 -14
Liberty 41 - FCS Team 14 27.2 Liberty 21 - FCS Team 20
Marshall 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 20 0.9 0.523 Marshall 13 - Louisiana Lafayette 23 11
Massachusetts 10 - Buffalo 34 24 0.946 Massachusetts 7 - Buffalo 34 3
Michigan 31 - Penn State 24 6.5 0.69 Michigan 41 - Penn State 17 -17
Michigan State 21 - Wisconsin 28 5.5 0.647 Michigan State 34 - Wisconsin 28 -13
Middle Tennessee 28 - Western Kentucky 31 3.9 0.594 Middle Tennessee 17 - Western Kentucky 35 15
Mississippi 31 - Auburn 24 8.6 0.736 Mississippi 48 - Auburn 34 -7
Nevada Las Vegas 21 - Air Force 27 6.1 0.66 Nevada Las Vegas 7 - Air Force 42 29
New Mexico St 14 - New Mexico 20 5.6 0.654 New Mexico St 21 - New Mexico 9 -18
North Texas 34 - Louisiana Tech 31 3.3 0.577 North Texas 47 - Louisiana Tech 27 -17
Notre Dame 38 - Stanford 17 19.6 0.91 Notre Dame 14 - Stanford 16 23
Oklahoma 42 - Kansas 31 9.7 0.715 Oklahoma 52 - Kansas 42 1
Oregon State 24 - Washington State 28 5.6 0.68 Oregon State 24 - Washington State 10 -18
Purdue 38 - Nebraska 24 14 0.785 Purdue 43 - Nebraska 37 8
South Alabama 31 - Louisiana Monroe 17 14.1 0.815 South Alabama 41 - Louisiana Monroe 34 7
South Florida 21 - Tulane 31 10.7 0.742 South Florida 31 - Tulane 45 4
Southern Methodist 31 - Navy 24 5.4 0.637 Southern Methodist 40 - Navy 34 1
Southern Miss 26 - Arkansas State 27 0.2 0.508 Southern Miss 20 - Arkansas State 19 -2
Syracuse 23 - NC State 24 0.8 0.524 Syracuse 24 - NC State 9 -16
Tennessee 28 - Alabama 41 11.5 0.765 Tennessee 52 - Alabama 49 -16
Texas 31 - Iowa State 20 11.5 0.761 Texas 24 - Iowa State 21 8
Texas Christian 41 - Oklahoma State 38 0.3 0.51 Texas Christian 43 - Oklahoma State 40 0
Toledo 38 - Kent State 27 11 0.749 Toledo 52 - Kent State 31 -10
Troy 28 - Texas State 14 15.2 0.798 Troy 17 - Texas State 14 11
Utah 31 - Southern California 27 3.2 0.579 Utah 43 - Southern California 42 3
Virginia Tech 24 - Miami FL 27 3.8 0.586 Virginia Tech 14 - Miami FL 20 3
Washington 42 - Arizona 27 15.5 0.849 Washington 49 - Arizona 39 5
West Virginia 28 - Baylor 31 1.9 0.557 West Virginia 43 - Baylor 40 -6
Western Michigan 32 - Ohio 31 0.3 0.512 Western Michigan 14 - Ohio 33 20


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 30 = 58.8%
Expected Number Correct: 35.744 = 70%
Average Error: 12.09
Average Signed Error: -0.73

WEEK 8

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Boise State 17 7 0.666 Air Force 14 - Boise State 19 12
Alabama 45 - Miss State 24 19.2 0.86 Alabama 30 - Miss State 6 -3
Appalachian State 35 - Georgia State 24 10.9 0.744 Appalachian State 42 - Georgia State 17 -14
Army 31 - Louisiana Monroe 21 7.9 0.718 Army 48 - Louisiana Monroe 24 -14
Ball State 28 - Eastern Michigan 21 5.8 0.661 Ball State 16 - Eastern Michigan 20 11
Baylor 41 - Kansas 31 9.1 0.738 Baylor 35 - Kansas 23 -2
Buffalo 31 - Toledo 28 1.4 0.533 Buffalo 34 - Toledo 27 -4
California 24 - Washington 31 6.9 0.7 California 21 - Washington 28 0
Central Michigan 28 - Bowling Green 17 11.8 0.783 Central Michigan 18 - Bowling Green 34 27
Charlotte 31 - Florida International 20 11 0.738 Charlotte 15 - Florida International 34 30
Clemson 35 - Syracuse 21 14.5 0.813 Clemson 27 - Syracuse 21 8
Colorado State 24 - Hawaii 20 5.7 0.64 Colorado State 17 - Hawaii 13 0
East Carolina 27 - Central Florida 38 12 0.781 East Carolina 34 - Central Florida 13 -32
Georgia Tech 21 - Virginia 20 2.4 0.553 Georgia Tech 9 - Virginia 16 8
James Madison 28 - Marshall 17 11.9 0.765 James Madison 12 - Marshall 26 25
Kent State 35 - Akron 20 16.1 0.825 Kent State 33 - Akron 27 9
Liberty 28 - Brigham Young 31 1.8 0.545 Liberty 41 - Brigham Young 14 -30
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Arkansas State 20 8.8 0.748 Louisiana Lafayette 38 - Arkansas State 18 -12
Louisiana State 35 - Mississippi 34 2.1 0.56 Louisiana State 45 - Mississippi 20 -24
Louisiana Tech 24 - Rice 27 2.2 0.552 Louisiana Tech 41 - Rice 42 -2
Louisville 34 - Pittsburgh 28 4.6 0.61 Louisville 24 - Pittsburgh 10 -8
Maryland 31 - Northwestern 17 14.9 0.827 Maryland 31 - Northwestern 24 7
Miami FL 28 - Duke 24 5.6 0.637 Miami FL 21 - Duke 45 28
Miami OH 27 - Western Michigan 14 11.2 0.772 Miami OH 10 - Western Michigan 16 19
Missouri 38 - Vanderbilt 24 14.1 0.771 Missouri 17 - Vanderbilt 14 11
Navy 28 - Houston 27 2.7 0.574 Navy 20 - Houston 38 19
Nevada 14 - San Diego State 17 0.9 0.523 Nevada 7 - San Diego State 23 13
New Mexico 13 - Fresno State 24 10 0.746 New Mexico 9 - Fresno State 41 21
Notre Dame 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 10 25.6 0.896 Notre Dame 44 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 2
Ohio 34 - Northern Illinois 31 3.1 0.593 Ohio 24 - Northern Illinois 17 -4
Ohio State 38 - Iowa 17 19.3 0.903 Ohio State 54 - Iowa 10 -23
Oklahoma State 35 - Texas 38 2 0.545 Oklahoma State 41 - Texas 34 -10
Old Dominion 28 - Georgia Southern 27 0.5 0.516 Old Dominion 23 - Georgia Southern 28 6
Oregon 38 - UCLA 35 3.3 0.594 Oregon 45 - UCLA 30 -12
Oregon State 31 - Colorado 17 14.9 0.808 Oregon State 42 - Colorado 9 -19
Penn State 27 - Minnesota 21 5.1 0.639 Penn State 45 - Minnesota 17 -22
Rutgers 21 - Indiana 27 5.1 0.656 Rutgers 24 - Indiana 17 -13
South Alabama 21 - Troy 20 0.9 0.526 South Alabama 6 - Troy 10 5
South Carolina 23 - Texas AM 24 0.7 0.522 South Carolina 30 - Texas AM 24 -7
Southern Methodist 32 - Cincinnati 31 0 0.502 Southern Methodist 27 - Cincinnati 29 3
Stanford 28 - Arizona State 27 2.2 0.554 Stanford 15 - Arizona State 14 0
Temple 20 - Tulsa 28 7.8 0.705 Temple 16 - Tulsa 27 3
Tennessee 56 - FCS Team 10 46 Tennessee 65 - FCS Team 24
Texas Christian 35 - Kansas State 28 6.6 0.685 Texas Christian 38 - Kansas State 28 -3
Texas El Paso 17 - Florida Atlantic 27 9.6 0.725 Texas El Paso 24 - Florida Atlantic 21 -13
Texas San Antonio 35 - North Texas 27 9.3 0.708 Texas San Antonio 31 - North Texas 27 4
Texas State 21 - Southern Miss 20 1.3 0.529 Texas State 14 - Southern Miss 20 7
Texas Tech 38 - West Virginia 35 3.2 0.596 Texas Tech 48 - West Virginia 10 -35
Tulane 31 - Memphis 28 4.2 0.625 Tulane 38 - Memphis 28 -7
Wake Forest 42 - Boston College 24 18.2 0.871 Wake Forest 45 - Boston College 13 -14
Western Kentucky 27 - Alabama Birmingham 21 4.2 0.611 Western Kentucky 20 - Alabama Birmingham 17 3
Wisconsin 34 - Purdue 28 4.5 0.62 Wisconsin 35 - Purdue 24 -5
Wyoming 24 - Utah State 20 4.5 0.625 Wyoming 28 - Utah State 14 -10


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 33 = 63.4%
Expected Number Correct: 34.937 = 67.1%
Average Error: 11.98
Average Signed Error: -1.18

WEEK 9

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 14 - Miami OH 24 8.5 0.739 Akron 9 - Miami OH 27 8
Appalachian State 48 - FCS Team 14 32.6 Appalachian State 42 - FCS Team 3
Arizona 28 - Southern California 45 16.6 0.842 Arizona 37 - Southern California 45 -9
Arkansas State 24 - South Alabama 27 2.2 0.573 Arkansas State 3 - South Alabama 31 25
Auburn 34 - Arkansas 31 3.4 0.611 Auburn 27 - Arkansas 41 17
Boise State 28 - Colorado State 7 19.7 0.868 Boise State 49 - Colorado State 10 -18
Brigham Young 32 - East Carolina 31 1.5 0.536 Brigham Young 24 - East Carolina 27 4
California 21 - Oregon 34 12.9 0.781 California 24 - Oregon 42 5
Central Florida 31 - Cincinnati 27 6.3 0.665 Central Florida 25 - Cincinnati 21 0
Colorado 20 - Arizona State 31 10.4 0.746 Colorado 34 - Arizona State 42 -3
Connecticut 20 - Boston College 27 6 0.677 Connecticut 13 - Boston College 3 -17
Eastern Michigan 27 - Toledo 34 6.9 0.679 Eastern Michigan 24 - Toledo 27 -4
Florida Atlantic 17 - Alabama Birmingham 20 4.2 0.623 Florida Atlantic 24 - Alabama Birmingham 7 -20
Florida International 24 - Louisiana Tech 31 5.5 0.629 Florida International 42 - Louisiana Tech 34 -15
Florida State 31 - Georgia Tech 17 16.6 0.866 Florida State 41 - Georgia Tech 16 -11
Fresno State 20 - San Diego State 13 6.9 0.691 Fresno State 32 - San Diego State 28 3
Georgia 42 - Florida 21 21.5 0.859 Georgia 42 - Florida 20 -1
Georgia State 27 - Old Dominion 24 1.7 0.538 Georgia State 31 - Old Dominion 17 -11
Hawaii 17 - Wyoming 24 8.1 0.706 Hawaii 20 - Wyoming 27 0
Houston 41 - South Florida 24 15.9 0.842 Houston 42 - South Florida 27 2
Iowa 24 - Northwestern 10 14.9 0.831 Iowa 33 - Northwestern 13 -6
Iowa State 31 - Oklahoma 27 5.3 0.624 Iowa State 13 - Oklahoma 27 18
Kansas State 34 - Oklahoma State 35 2.3 0.563 Kansas State 48 - Oklahoma State 0 -49
Louisville 34 - Wake Forest 35 2.1 0.55 Louisville 48 - Wake Forest 21 -28
Marshall 24 - Coastal Carolina 20 5 0.62 Marshall 13 - Coastal Carolina 24 15
Massachusetts 16 - New Mexico St 17 0.7 0.521 Massachusetts 13 - New Mexico St 23 9
Michigan 38 - Michigan State 17 19.4 0.855 Michigan 29 - Michigan State 7 -1
Minnesota 28 - Rutgers 14 14.5 0.796 Minnesota 31 - Rutgers 0 -17
Navy 28 - Temple 10 18.4 0.838 Navy 27 - Temple 20 11
NC State 31 - Virginia Tech 13 20 0.894 NC State 22 - Virginia Tech 21 17
Nebraska 24 - Illinois 31 7.8 0.694 Nebraska 9 - Illinois 26 10
North Carolina 35 - Pittsburgh 31 4.3 0.625 North Carolina 42 - Pittsburgh 24 -14
Penn State 28 - Ohio State 41 12 0.761 Penn State 31 - Ohio State 44 0
Rice 35 - Charlotte 20 16.1 0.797 Rice 23 - Charlotte 56 48
San Jose State 27 - Nevada 10 17.4 0.82 San Jose State 35 - Nevada 28 10
South Carolina 31 - Missouri 24 5.9 0.666 South Carolina 10 - Missouri 23 20
Southern Miss 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 5.2 0.638 Southern Miss 39 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 -19
Syracuse 27 - Notre Dame 24 2.8 0.568 Syracuse 24 - Notre Dame 41 20
Tennessee 35 - Kentucky 24 12.6 0.781 Tennessee 44 - Kentucky 6 -27
Texas AM 32 - Mississippi 31 1.9 0.547 Texas AM 28 - Mississippi 31 4
Texas El Paso 21 - Middle Tennessee 24 2.8 0.561 Texas El Paso 13 - Middle Tennessee 24 8
Texas Tech 38 - Baylor 31 5.2 0.638 Texas Tech 17 - Baylor 45 35
Tulsa 28 - Southern Methodist 35 5.3 0.654 Tulsa 34 - Southern Methodist 45 4
UCLA 38 - Stanford 27 10.3 0.773 UCLA 38 - Stanford 13 -14
Virginia 24 - Miami FL 20 4.8 0.624 Virginia 12 - Miami FL 14 6
Washington State 24 - Utah 31 5.9 0.681 Washington State 17 - Utah 21 -3
West Virginia 34 - Texas Christian 42 10.3 0.74 West Virginia 31 - Texas Christian 41 2
Western Kentucky 38 - North Texas 24 13.5 0.757 Western Kentucky 13 - North Texas 40 41


Number of FBS Games: 47
Number Correct: 30 = 63.8%
Expected Number Correct: 32.888 = 69.9%
Average Error: 13.38
Average Signed Error: 1.17

WEEK 10

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 21 - Texas San Antonio 20 1 0.529 Alabama Birmingham 38 - Texas San Antonio 44 7
Arizona State 31 - UCLA 38 6.8 0.707 Arizona State 36 - UCLA 50 7
Arkansas 38 - Liberty 28 8 0.71 Arkansas 19 - Liberty 21 12
Army 20 - Air Force 24 3.2 0.576 Army 7 - Air Force 13 2
Boise State 28 - Brigham Young 24 5.6 0.64 Boise State 28 - Brigham Young 31 7
Boston College 24 - Duke 28 6.1 0.644 Boston College 31 - Duke 38 3
Bowling Green 24 - Western Michigan 21 2.9 0.569 Bowling Green 13 - Western Michigan 9 -1
Charlotte 24 - Western Kentucky 34 11.1 0.706 Charlotte 7 - Western Kentucky 59 42
Cincinnati 31 - Navy 17 13.1 0.798 Cincinnati 20 - Navy 10 4
Coastal Carolina 28 - Appalachian State 31 1.3 0.527 Coastal Carolina 35 - Appalachian State 28 -10
Colorado 24 - Oregon 42 20 0.886 Colorado 10 - Oregon 49 21
Connecticut 24 - Massachusetts 7 16.5 0.847 Connecticut 27 - Massachusetts 10 0
Fresno State 31 - Hawaii 14 16.6 0.818 Fresno State 55 - Hawaii 13 -25
Georgia 41 - Tennessee 31 10 0.722 Georgia 27 - Tennessee 13 -4
Georgia Southern 25 - South Alabama 24 1.3 0.537 Georgia Southern 31 - South Alabama 38 8
Illinois 27 - Michigan State 17 10.2 0.742 Illinois 15 - Michigan State 23 18
Indiana 24 - Penn State 35 12.9 0.781 Indiana 14 - Penn State 45 20
Iowa State 31 - West Virginia 20 12 0.759 Iowa State 31 - West Virginia 14 -6
Kansas 38 - Oklahoma State 42 4.9 0.61 Kansas 37 - Oklahoma State 16 -25
Kansas State 31 - Texas 28 2.2 0.538 Kansas State 27 - Texas 34 10
Kent State 28 - Ball State 24 3.5 0.606 Kent State 20 - Ball State 27 11
Louisiana Lafayette 17 - Troy 20 1 0.525 Louisiana Lafayette 17 - Troy 23 3
Louisiana Monroe 27 - Texas State 28 1.7 0.534 Louisiana Monroe 31 - Texas State 30 -2
Louisiana State 28 - Alabama 38 10.1 0.752 Louisiana State 32 - Alabama 31 -11
Louisiana Tech 28 - Middle Tennessee 31 1.2 0.53 Louisiana Tech 40 - Middle Tennessee 24 -19
Louisville 34 - James Madison 21 12.6 0.74 Louisville 34 - James Madison 10 -11
Memphis 31 - Central Florida 35 4.4 0.622 Memphis 28 - Central Florida 35 3
Miami FL 24 - Florida State 28 4.4 0.628 Miami FL 3 - Florida State 45 38
Miss State 31 - Auburn 24 9.6 0.75 Miss State 39 - Auburn 33 1
Missouri 24 - Kentucky 20 2.8 0.567 Missouri 17 - Kentucky 21 8
NC State 32 - Wake Forest 31 0.4 0.513 NC State 30 - Wake Forest 21 -8
Nebraska 24 - Minnesota 31 6.8 0.677 Nebraska 13 - Minnesota 20 0
North Texas 35 - Florida International 17 17.7 0.762 North Texas 52 - Florida International 14 -20
Northern Illinois 31 - Central Michigan 24 5.6 0.663 Northern Illinois 22 - Central Michigan 35 20
Northwestern 17 - Ohio State 48 29.1 0.974 Northwestern 7 - Ohio State 21 -17
Notre Dame 28 - Clemson 31 2.2 0.564 Notre Dame 35 - Clemson 14 -24
Ohio 24 - Buffalo 27 3 0.589 Ohio 45 - Buffalo 24 -24
Oklahoma 38 - Baylor 34 4.8 0.598 Oklahoma 35 - Baylor 38 7
Old Dominion 16 - Marshall 17 1.8 0.538 Old Dominion 0 - Marshall 12 11
Pittsburgh 27 - Syracuse 28 0.8 0.522 Pittsburgh 19 - Syracuse 9 -11
Purdue 28 - Iowa 27 0.4 0.518 Purdue 3 - Iowa 24 22
Rice 24 - Texas El Paso 20 4.9 0.596 Rice 37 - Texas El Paso 30 -3
Rutgers 10 - Michigan 35 23.9 0.952 Rutgers 17 - Michigan 52 10
San Diego State 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 9.8 0.725 San Diego State 14 - Nevada Las Vegas 10 6
San Jose State 28 - Colorado State 10 17.6 0.857 San Jose State 28 - Colorado State 16 6
Southern California 38 - California 20 17.8 0.875 Southern California 41 - California 35 12
Southern Methodist 38 - Houston 34 3.4 0.604 Southern Methodist 77 - Houston 63 -10
Southern Miss 24 - Georgia State 21 3 0.571 Southern Miss 14 - Georgia State 42 31
Stanford 21 - Washington State 24 1.5 0.546 Stanford 14 - Washington State 52 35
Temple 24 - South Florida 28 3.5 0.596 Temple 54 - South Florida 28 -30
Texas AM 31 - Florida 28 2 0.556 Texas AM 24 - Florida 41 20
Texas Christian 45 - Texas Tech 34 11.6 0.74 Texas Christian 34 - Texas Tech 24 1
Tulsa 24 - Tulane 34 9.3 0.738 Tulsa 13 - Tulane 27 4
Utah 45 - Arizona 24 21.1 0.915 Utah 45 - Arizona 20 -4
Utah State 27 - New Mexico 13 13.6 0.79 Utah State 27 - New Mexico 10 -3
Vanderbilt 24 - South Carolina 34 7.6 0.69 Vanderbilt 27 - South Carolina 38 1
Virginia 27 - North Carolina 31 5.7 0.682 Virginia 28 - North Carolina 31 -1
Virginia Tech 24 - Georgia Tech 20 4.7 0.623 Virginia Tech 27 - Georgia Tech 28 5
Washington 34 - Oregon State 28 4.6 0.649 Washington 24 - Oregon State 21 3
Wisconsin 35 - Maryland 27 8.2 0.713 Wisconsin 23 - Maryland 10 -5


Number of FBS Games: 60
Number Correct: 37 = 61.6%
Expected Number Correct: 40.236 = 67%
Average Error: 11.55
Average Signed Error: 2.41

WEEK 11

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - New Mexico 3 24.8 0.957 Air Force 35 - New Mexico 3 -8
Akron 20 - Eastern Michigan 27 6.4 0.673 Akron 28 - Eastern Michigan 34 -1
Alabama Birmingham 25 - North Texas 24 1.2 0.525 Alabama Birmingham 41 - North Texas 21 -19
Arkansas 31 - Louisiana State 38 7 0.705 Arkansas 10 - Louisiana State 13 -4
Arkansas State 31 - Massachusetts 13 18.7 0.922 Arkansas State 35 - Massachusetts 33 16
Auburn 31 - Texas AM 27 2.8 0.594 Auburn 13 - Texas AM 10 1
Baylor 30 - Kansas State 31 0.4 0.512 Baylor 3 - Kansas State 31 27
Bowling Green 25 - Kent State 24 0.4 0.512 Bowling Green 6 - Kent State 40 35
Central Michigan 24 - Buffalo 27 2.9 0.571 Central Michigan 31 - Buffalo 27 -7
Cincinnati 28 - East Carolina 21 7.4 0.711 Cincinnati 27 - East Carolina 25 5
Clemson 34 - Louisville 24 7.7 0.693 Clemson 31 - Louisville 16 -5
Coastal Carolina 31 - Southern Miss 17 12.9 0.757 Coastal Carolina 26 - Southern Miss 23 11
Colorado State 14 - Wyoming 21 6.2 0.695 Colorado State 13 - Wyoming 14 -6
Connecticut 14 - Liberty 27 12.2 0.767 Connecticut 36 - Liberty 33 -16
Duke 34 - Virginia Tech 24 9.7 0.727 Duke 24 - Virginia Tech 7 -7
Florida 38 - South Carolina 28 10.6 0.77 Florida 38 - South Carolina 6 -22
Florida International 14 - Florida Atlantic 24 11.4 0.732 Florida International 7 - Florida Atlantic 52 35
Georgia State 38 - Louisiana Monroe 24 14.7 0.782 Georgia State 28 - Louisiana Monroe 31 17
Georgia Tech 21 - Miami FL 20 1.8 0.539 Georgia Tech 14 - Miami FL 35 22
Hawaii 21 - Utah State 27 6.1 0.65 Hawaii 34 - Utah State 41 1
Houston 41 - Temple 24 17 0.826 Houston 43 - Temple 36 10
Illinois 28 - Purdue 21 8 0.711 Illinois 24 - Purdue 31 14
Iowa 24 - Wisconsin 21 2.5 0.558 Iowa 24 - Wisconsin 10 -11
Kentucky 35 - Vanderbilt 17 16.7 0.822 Kentucky 21 - Vanderbilt 24 21
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Georgia Southern 27 3.8 0.604 Louisiana Lafayette 36 - Georgia Southern 17 -18
Marshall 19 - Appalachian State 20 0.1 0.504 Marshall 28 - Appalachian State 21 -8
Memphis 38 - Tulsa 24 12 0.81 Memphis 26 - Tulsa 10 -2
Miami OH 20 - Ohio 21 1.6 0.543 Miami OH 21 - Ohio 37 15
Michigan 45 - Nebraska 17 25.6 0.968 Michigan 34 - Nebraska 3 -3
Michigan State 31 - Rutgers 14 15.7 0.832 Michigan State 27 - Rutgers 21 11
Middle Tennessee 34 - Charlotte 24 9.9 0.693 Middle Tennessee 24 - Charlotte 14 0
Minnesota 27 - Northwestern 14 11.7 0.751 Minnesota 31 - Northwestern 3 -15
Miss State 21 - Georgia 38 15.1 0.793 Miss State 19 - Georgia 45 9
Mississippi 31 - Alabama 45 13.2 0.795 Mississippi 24 - Alabama 30 -8
Navy 17 - Notre Dame 28 12 0.765 Navy 32 - Notre Dame 35 -8
NC State 31 - Boston College 13 17.7 0.849 NC State 20 - Boston College 21 19
Nevada 14 - Boise State 28 13.6 0.767 Nevada 3 - Boise State 41 24
Nevada Las Vegas 21 - Fresno State 28 7.5 0.676 Nevada Las Vegas 30 - Fresno State 37 0
New Mexico St 27 - FCS Team 17 8.8 New Mexico St 51 - FCS Team 14
Ohio State 52 - Indiana 17 33.5 0.982 Ohio State 56 - Indiana 14 -7
Oklahoma State 26 - Iowa State 27 0.3 0.508 Oklahoma State 20 - Iowa State 14 -7
Old Dominion 20 - James Madison 21 1.8 0.539 Old Dominion 3 - James Madison 37 33
Oregon 41 - Washington 31 10.6 0.786 Oregon 34 - Washington 37 13
Oregon State 28 - California 20 8.8 0.736 Oregon State 38 - California 10 -20
Penn State 38 - Maryland 24 14.7 0.82 Penn State 30 - Maryland 0 -16
San Diego State 13 - San Jose State 14 0.6 0.521 San Diego State 43 - San Jose State 21 -23
South Alabama 28 - Texas State 13 14.4 0.807 South Alabama 38 - Texas State 21 -2
South Florida 34 - Southern Methodist 48 13.3 0.775 South Florida 23 - Southern Methodist 41 4
Southern California 45 - Colorado 20 25.9 0.957 Southern California 55 - Colorado 17 -13
Syracuse 24 - Florida State 27 1.7 0.539 Syracuse 3 - Florida State 38 32
Tennessee 38 - Missouri 20 18.2 0.85 Tennessee 66 - Missouri 24 -24
Texas 41 - Texas Christian 34 6.3 0.654 Texas 10 - Texas Christian 17 14
Texas San Antonio 38 - Louisiana Tech 24 15.1 0.872 Texas San Antonio 51 - Louisiana Tech 7 -30
Texas Tech 38 - Kansas 34 4 0.591 Texas Tech 43 - Kansas 28 -11
Toledo 31 - Ball State 21 10.7 0.776 Toledo 28 - Ball State 21 3
Troy 21 - Army 13 9.3 0.747 Troy 10 - Army 9 7
Tulane 24 - Central Florida 27 2.5 0.554 Tulane 31 - Central Florida 38 4
UCLA 48 - Arizona 31 17.9 0.907 UCLA 28 - Arizona 34 23
Utah 38 - Stanford 17 19.8 0.9 Utah 42 - Stanford 7 -14
Virginia 21 - Pittsburgh 24 2.6 0.572 Virginia 7 - Pittsburgh 37 27
Wake Forest 42 - North Carolina 38 4.8 0.63 Wake Forest 34 - North Carolina 36 6
Washington State 35 - Arizona State 21 12 0.778 Washington State 28 - Arizona State 18 4
West Virginia 34 - Oklahoma 41 7.6 0.666 West Virginia 23 - Oklahoma 20 -10
Western Kentucky 34 - Rice 17 17.4 0.77 Western Kentucky 45 - Rice 10 -18
Western Michigan 25 - Northern Illinois 24 0.5 0.518 Western Michigan 21 - Northern Illinois 24 4


Number of FBS Games: 64
Number Correct: 47 = 73.4%
Expected Number Correct: 45.816 = 71.5%
Average Error: 12.96
Average Signed Error: 1.62

WEEK 12

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Colorado State 6 21 0.937 Air Force 24 - Colorado State 12 9
Alabama 59 - FCS Team 6 54.3 Alabama 34 - FCS Team 0
Appalachian State 31 - Old Dominion 14 15.6 0.792 Appalachian State 27 - Old Dominion 14 4
Arizona 28 - Washington State 34 6.4 0.684 Arizona 20 - Washington State 31 5
Arizona State 27 - Oregon State 31 3.6 0.605 Arizona State 7 - Oregon State 31 20
Arkansas 34 - Mississippi 35 0.6 0.523 Arkansas 42 - Mississippi 27 -16
Army 24 - Connecticut 13 10.5 0.746 Army 34 - Connecticut 17 -6
Auburn 28 - Western Kentucky 24 5.3 0.636 Auburn 41 - Western Kentucky 17 -20
Ball State 24 - Ohio 27 3 0.599 Ball State 18 - Ohio 32 11
Baylor 31 - Texas Christian 35 4 0.599 Baylor 28 - Texas Christian 29 -3
Brigham Young 45 - FCS Team 14 31.5 Brigham Young 52 - FCS Team 26
California 27 - Stanford 21 4.4 0.619 California 27 - Stanford 20 -1
Central Florida 34 - Navy 17 16.2 0.807 Central Florida 14 - Navy 17 20
Central Michigan 27 - Western Michigan 17 8.8 0.734 Central Michigan 10 - Western Michigan 12 12
Charlotte 30 - Louisiana Tech 31 1 0.522 Charlotte 26 - Louisiana Tech 21 -6
Clemson 38 - Miami FL 14 22.4 0.888 Clemson 40 - Miami FL 10 -6
East Carolina 38 - Houston 34 5.2 0.658 East Carolina 3 - Houston 42 43
Florida State 34 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 16.4 0.803 Florida State 49 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 -15
Georgia Southern 20 - Marshall 21 1.4 0.537 Georgia Southern 10 - Marshall 23 12
Hawaii 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 2.4 0.548 Hawaii 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 25 -9
Iowa State 31 - Texas Tech 24 6.4 0.657 Iowa State 10 - Texas Tech 14 11
James Madison 31 - Georgia State 21 8.4 0.685 James Madison 42 - Georgia State 40 8
Kansas 31 - Texas 41 10.3 0.731 Kansas 14 - Texas 55 31
Kent State 31 - Eastern Michigan 24 6.6 0.66 Kent State 24 - Eastern Michigan 31 14
Kentucky 14 - Georgia 35 21.8 0.883 Kentucky 6 - Georgia 16 -11
Liberty 31 - Virginia Tech 17 11.7 0.761 Liberty 22 - Virginia Tech 23 15
Louisiana State 34 - Alabama Birmingham 14 19.5 0.871 Louisiana State 41 - Alabama Birmingham 10 -11
Louisville 28 - NC State 20 8.5 0.694 Louisville 25 - NC State 10 -7
Maryland 24 - Ohio State 45 21.7 0.892 Maryland 30 - Ohio State 43 -8
Memphis 48 - FCS Team 14 33.1 Memphis 59 - FCS Team 0
Michigan 34 - Illinois 17 18 0.847 Michigan 19 - Illinois 17 15
Michigan State 34 - Indiana 24 10.3 0.764 Michigan State 31 - Indiana 39 18
Middle Tennessee 17 - Florida Atlantic 24 5.8 0.639 Middle Tennessee 49 - Florida Atlantic 21 -35
Minnesota 21 - Iowa 20 0.4 0.514 Minnesota 10 - Iowa 13 4
Miss State 49 - FCS Team 10 38.7 Miss State 56 - FCS Team 7
Missouri 35 - New Mexico St 7 27.2 0.949 Missouri 45 - New Mexico St 14 -3
Nebraska 24 - Wisconsin 31 8.4 0.72 Nebraska 14 - Wisconsin 15 -6
Nevada 17 - Fresno State 28 10.8 0.759 Nevada 14 - Fresno State 41 16
New Mexico 6 - San Diego State 21 14.3 0.822 New Mexico 10 - San Diego State 34 9
North Carolina 41 - Georgia Tech 21 17.7 0.844 North Carolina 17 - Georgia Tech 21 24
Northern Illinois 24 - Miami OH 20 3.2 0.6 Northern Illinois 23 - Miami OH 29 10
Notre Dame 35 - Boston College 14 21.2 0.878 Notre Dame 44 - Boston College 0 -23
Oklahoma 38 - Oklahoma State 35 4.6 0.589 Oklahoma 28 - Oklahoma State 13 -12
Oregon 33 - Utah 34 0.4 0.515 Oregon 20 - Utah 17 -4
Pittsburgh 31 - Duke 24 7.3 0.681 Pittsburgh 28 - Duke 26 5
Purdue 31 - Northwestern 20 11 0.755 Purdue 17 - Northwestern 9 3
Rice 20 - Texas San Antonio 34 12.7 0.752 Rice 7 - Texas San Antonio 41 20
Rutgers 14 - Penn State 35 20.5 0.92 Rutgers 10 - Penn State 55 24
South Carolina 24 - Tennessee 42 17.7 0.849 South Carolina 63 - Tennessee 38 -43
Southern Miss 17 - South Alabama 21 4.2 0.621 Southern Miss 20 - South Alabama 27 3
Temple 17 - Cincinnati 31 14.8 0.806 Temple 3 - Cincinnati 23 6
Texas AM 38 - Massachusetts 6 33.1 0.992 Texas AM 20 - Massachusetts 3 15
Texas El Paso 27 - Florida International 17 9 0.688 Texas El Paso 40 - Florida International 6 -24
Texas State 27 - Arkansas State 24 3.7 0.607 Texas State 16 - Arkansas State 13 0
Toledo 34 - Bowling Green 14 19.2 0.836 Toledo 35 - Bowling Green 42 27
Troy 31 - Louisiana Monroe 13 17.2 0.853 Troy 34 - Louisiana Monroe 16 0
Tulane 38 - Southern Methodist 34 4.6 0.64 Tulane 59 - Southern Methodist 24 -31
Tulsa 35 - South Florida 24 9.3 0.738 Tulsa 48 - South Florida 42 5
UCLA 37 - Southern California 38 0.9 0.526 UCLA 45 - Southern California 48 2
Utah State 23 - San Jose State 24 0.9 0.524 Utah State 35 - San Jose State 31 -5
Vanderbilt 24 - Florida 41 15.4 0.799 Vanderbilt 31 - Florida 24 -24
Wake Forest 35 - Syracuse 27 8.9 0.701 Wake Forest 45 - Syracuse 35 -2
Washington 42 - Colorado 20 23.4 0.965 Washington 54 - Colorado 7 -25
West Virginia 24 - Kansas State 35 11.3 0.734 West Virginia 31 - Kansas State 48 6
Wyoming 14 - Boise State 24 9.6 0.73 Wyoming 17 - Boise State 20 -7


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 42 = 68.8%
Expected Number Correct: 44.228 = 72.5%
Average Error: 12.95
Average Signed Error: 1.04

WEEK 13

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 42 - Auburn 21 21 0.905 Alabama 49 - Auburn 27 -1
Arizona 35 - Arizona State 31 3.4 0.6 Arizona 38 - Arizona State 35 1
Arkansas State 13 - Troy 24 11 0.8 Arkansas State 19 - Troy 48 18
Boise State 31 - Utah State 17 15.9 0.809 Boise State 42 - Utah State 23 -5
Boston College 21 - Syracuse 27 5.7 0.642 Boston College 23 - Syracuse 32 3
Buffalo 31 - Kent State 24 7.8 0.69 Buffalo 27 - Kent State 30 10
California 28 - UCLA 35 6.1 0.682 California 28 - UCLA 35 0
Cincinnati 24 - Tulane 21 2.3 0.558 Cincinnati 24 - Tulane 27 6
Clemson 38 - South Carolina 24 13.9 0.756 Clemson 30 - South Carolina 31 15
Colorado 14 - Utah 41 25.4 0.96 Colorado 21 - Utah 63 15
Colorado State 20 - New Mexico 10 10 0.779 Colorado State 17 - New Mexico 0 -7
Duke 35 - Wake Forest 38 3.4 0.58 Duke 34 - Wake Forest 31 -6
Eastern Michigan 24 - Central Michigan 21 2.6 0.565 Eastern Michigan 38 - Central Michigan 19 -16
Florida Atlantic 21 - Western Kentucky 24 3.5 0.562 Florida Atlantic 31 - Western Kentucky 32 -2
Florida International 17 - Middle Tennessee 28 13.1 0.731 Florida International 28 - Middle Tennessee 33 -6
Florida State 35 - Florida 28 5.5 0.636 Florida State 45 - Florida 38 0
Fresno State 27 - Wyoming 17 9.2 0.746 Fresno State 30 - Wyoming 0 -20
Georgia 42 - Georgia Tech 6 38.3 0.984 Georgia 37 - Georgia Tech 14 13
Georgia Southern 27 - Appalachian State 31 4.2 0.624 Georgia Southern 51 - Appalachian State 48 -7
Houston 41 - Tulsa 28 13.4 0.78 Houston 30 - Tulsa 37 20
Indiana 31 - Purdue 34 2.5 0.571 Indiana 16 - Purdue 30 11
Iowa 28 - Nebraska 13 16.7 0.865 Iowa 17 - Nebraska 24 22
James Madison 28 - Coastal Carolina 24 3.5 0.574 James Madison 47 - Coastal Carolina 7 -36
Kansas State 45 - Kansas 24 19 0.819 Kansas State 47 - Kansas 27 1
Kentucky 20 - Louisville 21 0.4 0.512 Kentucky 26 - Louisville 13 -14
Liberty 35 - New Mexico St 10 23.7 0.893 Liberty 14 - New Mexico St 49 60
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Southern Miss 27 1.2 0.529 Louisiana Monroe 10 - Southern Miss 20 7
Louisiana Tech 20 - Alabama Birmingham 31 10.2 0.728 Louisiana Tech 27 - Alabama Birmingham 37 -1
Marshall 24 - Georgia State 17 7.9 0.701 Marshall 28 - Georgia State 23 2
Maryland 34 - Rutgers 20 14.5 0.839 Maryland 37 - Rutgers 0 -23
Massachusetts 7 - Army 27 19.2 0.902 Massachusetts 7 - Army 44 17
Miami FL 21 - Pittsburgh 27 4.6 0.617 Miami FL 16 - Pittsburgh 42 20
Miami OH 20 - Ball State 17 4.7 0.688 Miami OH 18 - Ball State 17 2
Mississippi 38 - Miss State 35 2.1 0.552 Mississippi 22 - Miss State 24 5
Missouri 30 - Arkansas 31 0.5 0.516 Missouri 29 - Arkansas 27 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Nevada 20 6 0.65 Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Nevada 22 -1
North Carolina 31 - NC State 27 4 0.606 North Carolina 27 - NC State 30 7
North Texas 34 - Rice 20 14.4 0.742 North Texas 21 - Rice 17 10
Northern Illinois 34 - Akron 20 13.8 0.817 Northern Illinois 12 - Akron 44 46
Northwestern 14 - Illinois 21 6.8 0.673 Northwestern 3 - Illinois 41 31
Ohio 34 - Bowling Green 17 16.5 0.808 Ohio 38 - Bowling Green 14 -7
Ohio State 41 - Michigan 31 9.6 0.735 Ohio State 23 - Michigan 45 32
Oklahoma State 38 - West Virginia 31 8 0.678 Oklahoma State 19 - West Virginia 24 12
Oregon State 28 - Oregon 31 1.9 0.551 Oregon State 38 - Oregon 34 -7
Penn State 38 - Michigan State 20 20.2 0.866 Penn State 35 - Michigan State 16 -1
San Diego State 14 - Air Force 17 1.4 0.54 San Diego State 3 - Air Force 13 7
San Jose State 31 - Hawaii 17 13.9 0.778 San Jose State 27 - Hawaii 14 1
South Alabama 27 - Old Dominion 10 14.3 0.82 South Alabama 27 - Old Dominion 20 10
South Florida 24 - Central Florida 42 18.6 0.826 South Florida 39 - Central Florida 46 -11
Southern California 35 - Notre Dame 34 0.9 0.525 Southern California 38 - Notre Dame 27 -10
Southern Methodist 41 - Memphis 38 1.6 0.54 Southern Methodist 34 - Memphis 31 0
Stanford 27 - Brigham Young 28 3.2 0.587 Stanford 26 - Brigham Young 35 8
Temple 21 - East Carolina 27 6.4 0.64 Temple 46 - East Carolina 49 -3
Texas 38 - Baylor 24 13.6 0.761 Texas 38 - Baylor 27 3
Texas AM 21 - Louisiana State 31 9 0.75 Texas AM 38 - Louisiana State 23 -25
Texas Christian 28 - Iowa State 21 8.8 0.733 Texas Christian 62 - Iowa State 14 -41
Texas San Antonio 34 - Texas El Paso 13 20.6 0.882 Texas San Antonio 34 - Texas El Paso 31 18
Texas State 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 6.2 0.665 Texas State 13 - Louisiana Lafayette 41 24
Texas Tech 34 - Oklahoma 35 0.2 0.507 Texas Tech 51 - Oklahoma 48 -4
Vanderbilt 31 - Tennessee 45 16.4 0.766 Vanderbilt 0 - Tennessee 56 42
Washington State 31 - Washington 28 1.8 0.552 Washington State 33 - Washington 51 21
Western Michigan 21 - Toledo 27 5.5 0.658 Western Michigan 20 - Toledo 14 -12
Wisconsin 24 - Minnesota 21 2.9 0.571 Wisconsin 16 - Minnesota 23 10


Number of FBS Games: 63
Number Correct: 42 = 66.6%
Expected Number Correct: 43.922 = 69.7%
Average Error: 12.68
Average Signed Error: 4.14

WEEK 14

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Boise State 28 - Fresno State 21 6.8 0.673 Boise State 16 - Fresno State 28 19
Buffalo 31 - Akron 17 14.7 0.785 Buffalo 23 - Akron 22 13
Georgia 38 - Louisiana State 20 16.8 0.809 Georgia 50 - Louisiana State 30 -2
Michigan 38 - Purdue 21 17.3 0.846 Michigan 43 - Purdue 22 -4
New Mexico St 34 - FCS Team 17 15.6 New Mexico St 65 - FCS Team 3
North Carolina 27 - Clemson 38 11.6 0.778 North Carolina 10 - Clemson 39 18
Ohio 31 - Toledo 27 5 0.64 Ohio 7 - Toledo 17 14
Southern California 34 - Utah 35 2.2 0.566 Southern California 24 - Utah 47 22
Texas Christian 35 - Kansas State 34 0.7 0.52 Texas Christian 28 - Kansas State 31 4
Texas San Antonio 31 - North Texas 24 6.8 0.654 Texas San Antonio 48 - North Texas 27 -14
Troy 24 - Coastal Carolina 17 9.3 0.717 Troy 45 - Coastal Carolina 26 -12
Tulane 31 - Central Florida 27 3 0.562 Tulane 45 - Central Florida 28 -13


Number of FBS Games: 11
Number Correct: 8 = 72.7%
Expected Number Correct: 7.55 = 68.6%
Average Error: 12.27
Average Signed Error: 4.09

WEEK 15

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Navy 21 - Army 17 4.3 0.621 Navy 17 - Army 20 7

WEEK 16

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 20 - Baylor 24 4.3 0.628 Air Force 30 - Baylor 15 -19
Alabama Birmingham 20 - Miami OH 14 4.4 0.635 Alabama Birmingham 24 - Miami OH 20 2
Arkansas 41 - Kansas 34 6.4 0.67 Arkansas 55 - Kansas 53 5
Bowling Green 20 - New Mexico St 21 0.7 0.516 Bowling Green 19 - New Mexico St 24 4
Brigham Young 37 - Southern Methodist 38 1.4 0.532 Brigham Young 24 - Southern Methodist 23 -2
Buffalo 29 - Georgia Southern 28 0.4 0.514 Buffalo 23 - Georgia Southern 21 -1
Clemson 34 - Tennessee 38 5 0.602 Clemson 14 - Tennessee 31 13
Connecticut 7 - Marshall 20 12.3 0.779 Connecticut 14 - Marshall 28 1
Duke 28 - Central Florida 34 6.4 0.655 Duke 30 - Central Florida 13 -23
East Carolina 31 - Coastal Carolina 28 2.4 0.545 East Carolina 53 - Coastal Carolina 29 -21
Florida State 38 - Oklahoma 34 3.1 0.573 Florida State 35 - Oklahoma 32 1
Fresno State 24 - Washington State 27 2.2 0.556 Fresno State 29 - Washington State 6 -26
Georgia 38 - Ohio State 34 4.2 0.596 Georgia 42 - Ohio State 41 3
Illinois 24 - Miss State 27 1 0.526 Illinois 10 - Miss State 19 6
Kansas State 31 - Alabama 38 8 0.71 Kansas State 20 - Alabama 45 18
Kentucky 16 - Iowa 17 0.9 0.524 Kentucky 0 - Iowa 21 20
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Houston 34 3.2 0.567 Louisiana Lafayette 16 - Houston 23 1
Louisville 21 - Cincinnati 20 1.9 0.545 Louisville 24 - Cincinnati 7 -16
Michigan 35 - Texas Christian 31 5.2 0.631 Michigan 45 - Texas Christian 51 10
Missouri 35 - Wake Forest 34 1.1 0.527 Missouri 17 - Wake Forest 27 11
NC State 23 - Maryland 24 2.2 0.552 NC State 12 - Maryland 16 3
North Texas 21 - Boise State 31 11 0.72 North Texas 32 - Boise State 35 -7
Oklahoma State 27 - Wisconsin 28 2.5 0.549 Oklahoma State 17 - Wisconsin 24 6
Oregon 41 - North Carolina 31 10.7 0.771 Oregon 28 - North Carolina 27 9
Oregon State 28 - Florida 31 2.3 0.552 Oregon State 30 - Florida 3 -30
Purdue 27 - Louisiana State 35 8.8 0.733 Purdue 7 - Louisiana State 63 48
San Diego State 21 - Middle Tennessee 14 6.9 0.667 San Diego State 23 - Middle Tennessee 25 9
San Jose State 27 - Eastern Michigan 21 3.5 0.583 San Jose State 27 - Eastern Michigan 41 20
South Alabama 21 - Western Kentucky 24 1.6 0.535 South Alabama 23 - Western Kentucky 44 18
South Carolina 28 - Notre Dame 34 4.1 0.578 South Carolina 38 - Notre Dame 45 1
Southern California 35 - Tulane 34 2 0.548 Southern California 45 - Tulane 46 2
Southern Miss 21 - Rice 14 6.6 0.649 Southern Miss 38 - Rice 24 -7
Syracuse 17 - Minnesota 27 8.7 0.727 Syracuse 20 - Minnesota 28 -2
Texas 38 - Washington 31 7.4 0.684 Texas 20 - Washington 27 14
Texas Tech 35 - Mississippi 38 1.8 0.539 Texas Tech 42 - Mississippi 25 -20
Toledo 27 - Liberty 24 2.2 0.538 Toledo 21 - Liberty 19 1
Troy 22 - Texas San Antonio 21 0.2 0.508 Troy 18 - Texas San Antonio 12 -5
UCLA 34 - Pittsburgh 31 1.9 0.547 UCLA 35 - Pittsburgh 37 5
Utah 28 - Penn State 31 2.2 0.553 Utah 21 - Penn State 35 11
Utah State 24 - Memphis 35 9.9 0.775 Utah State 10 - Memphis 38 17
Wyoming 17 - Ohio 21 5.5 0.667 Wyoming 27 - Ohio 30 -1

WEEK 17

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Georgia 38 - Texas Christian 28 10.8 0.736 Georgia 65 - Texas Christian 7 -48


Number of FBS Games: 43
Number Correct: 29 = 67.4%
Expected Number Correct: 26.163 = 60.8%
Average Error: 11.48
Average Signed Error: 0.88