2018 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 41 - FCS Team 20 Air Force 38 - FCS Team 0
Alabama Birmingham 34 - FCS Team 20 Alabama Birmingham 52 - FCS Team 0
Arizona 35 - Brigham Young 27 0.742 Arizona 23 - Brigham Young 28 13
Arizona State 35 - Texas San Antonio 14 0.901 Arizona State 49 - Texas San Antonio 7 -21
Arkansas 49 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas 55 - FCS Team 20
Arkansas State 41 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas State 48 - FCS Team 21
Auburn 31 - Washington 27 0.576 Auburn 21 - Washington 16 -1
Ball State 31 - FCS Team 24 Ball State 42 - FCS Team 6
Baylor 48 - FCS Team 17 Baylor 55 - FCS Team 27
Boston College 35 - Massachusetts 17 0.847 Boston College 55 - Massachusetts 21 -16
Buffalo 34 - FCS Team 20 Buffalo 48 - FCS Team 10
California 35 - North Carolina 34 0.524 California 24 - North Carolina 17 -6
Charlotte 24 - FCS Team 21 Charlotte 34 - FCS Team 10
Clemson 52 - FCS Team 6 Clemson 48 - FCS Team 7
Colorado State 38 - Hawaii 20 0.861 Colorado State 34 - Hawaii 43 27
Colorado State 32 - Colorado 31 0.534 Colorado State 13 - Colorado 45 33
Connecticut 17 - Central Florida 35 0.834 Connecticut 17 - Central Florida 56 21
Duke 31 - Army 17 0.774 Duke 34 - Army 14 -6
East Carolina 42 - FCS Team 24 East Carolina 23 - FCS Team 28
Eastern Michigan 34 - FCS Team 20 Eastern Michigan 51 - FCS Team 17
Florida 41 - FCS Team 10 Florida 53 - FCS Team 6
Florida International 20 - Indiana 35 0.79 Florida International 28 - Indiana 38 -5
Florida State 28 - Virginia Tech 21 0.706 Florida State 3 - Virginia Tech 24 28
Fresno State 24 - Idaho 14 0.739 Fresno State 79 - Idaho 13 -56
Georgia 52 - FCS Team 7 Georgia 45 - FCS Team 0
Georgia Southern 34 - FCS Team 17 Georgia Southern 37 - FCS Team 6
Georgia State 28 - FCS Team 17 Georgia State 24 - FCS Team 20
Georgia Tech 48 - FCS Team 13 Georgia Tech 41 - FCS Team 0
Hawaii 17 - Navy 35 0.814 Hawaii 59 - Navy 41 -36
Illinois 28 - Kent State 13 0.859 Illinois 31 - Kent State 24 8
Iowa 34 - Northern Illinois 14 0.833 Iowa 33 - Northern Illinois 17 4
Kansas 35 - FCS Team 24 Kansas 23 - FCS Team 26
Kansas State 48 - FCS Team 13 Kansas State 27 - FCS Team 24
Kentucky 35 - Central Michigan 21 0.795 Kentucky 35 - Central Michigan 20 -1
Liberty 24 - Old Dominion 31 0.621 Liberty 52 - Old Dominion 10 -49
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - FCS Team 21 Louisiana Lafayette 49 - FCS Team 17
Louisiana Monroe 38 - FCS Team 24 Louisiana Monroe 34 - FCS Team 31
Louisiana State 27 - Miami FL 24 0.579 Louisiana State 33 - Miami FL 17 -13
Louisville 24 - Alabama 38 0.769 Louisville 14 - Alabama 51 23
Maryland 24 - Texas 31 0.703 Maryland 34 - Texas 29 -12
Massachusetts 38 - FCS Team 21 Massachusetts 63 - FCS Team 15
Memphis 52 - FCS Team 17 Memphis 66 - FCS Team 14
Miami OH 17 - Marshall 20 0.619 Miami OH 28 - Marshall 35 4
Michigan State 31 - Utah State 14 0.84 Michigan State 38 - Utah State 31 10
Minnesota 35 - New Mexico St 14 0.874 Minnesota 48 - New Mexico St 10 -17
Miss State 49 - FCS Team 10 Miss State 63 - FCS Team 6
Missouri 49 - FCS Team 14 Missouri 51 - FCS Team 14
NC State 48 - FCS Team 13 NC State 24 - FCS Team 13
Nevada 38 - FCS Team 20 Nevada 72 - FCS Team 19
New Mexico 35 - FCS Team 21 New Mexico 62 - FCS Team 30
New Mexico St 24 - Wyoming 28 0.62 New Mexico St 7 - Wyoming 29 18
North Texas 35 - Southern Methodist 34 0.515 North Texas 46 - Southern Methodist 23 -22
Notre Dame 31 - Michigan 27 0.603 Notre Dame 24 - Michigan 17 -3
Ohio 38 - FCS Team 14 Ohio 38 - FCS Team 32
Ohio State 49 - Oregon State 17 0.956 Ohio State 77 - Oregon State 31 -14
Oklahoma 49 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.949 Oklahoma 63 - Florida Atlantic 14 -21
Oklahoma State 56 - FCS Team 14 Oklahoma State 58 - FCS Team 17
Oregon 45 - Bowling Green 24 0.823 Oregon 58 - Bowling Green 24 -13
Penn State 38 - Appalachian State 17 0.836 Penn State 45 - Appalachian State 38 14
Pittsburgh 48 - FCS Team 14 Pittsburgh 33 - FCS Team 7
Purdue 24 - Northwestern 28 0.649 Purdue 27 - Northwestern 31 0
Rice 31 - FCS Team 21 Rice 31 - FCS Team 28
Rice 14 - Houston 31 0.82 Rice 27 - Houston 45 1
Rutgers 31 - Texas State 17 0.799 Rutgers 35 - Texas State 7 -14
San Jose State 31 - FCS Team 24 San Jose State 38 - FCS Team 44
South Alabama 17 - Louisiana Tech 27 0.7 South Alabama 26 - Louisiana Tech 30 -6
South Carolina 35 - Coastal Carolina 13 0.921 South Carolina 49 - Coastal Carolina 15 -12
South Florida 45 - FCS Team 17 South Florida 34 - FCS Team 14
Southern California 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 0.954 Southern California 43 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 6
Southern Miss 38 - FCS Team 20 Southern Miss 55 - FCS Team 7
Stanford 31 - San Diego State 17 0.769 Stanford 31 - San Diego State 10 -7
Temple 38 - FCS Team 13 Temple 17 - FCS Team 19
Tennessee 31 - West Virginia 34 0.594 Tennessee 14 - West Virginia 40 23
Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 17 Texas AM 59 - FCS Team 7
Texas Christian 48 - FCS Team 10 Texas Christian 55 - FCS Team 17
Texas El Paso 25 - FCS Team 24 Texas El Paso 10 - FCS Team 30
Texas Tech 41 - Mississippi 42 0.552 Texas Tech 27 - Mississippi 47 19
Toledo 42 - FCS Team 17 Toledo 66 - FCS Team 3
Troy 24 - Boise State 28 0.615 Troy 20 - Boise State 56 32
Tulane 20 - Wake Forest 31 0.76 Tulane 17 - Wake Forest 23 -5
Tulsa 42 - FCS Team 21 Tulsa 38 - FCS Team 27
UCLA 35 - Cincinnati 20 0.82 UCLA 17 - Cincinnati 26 24
Utah 45 - FCS Team 13 Utah 41 - FCS Team 10
Vanderbilt 34 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.727 Vanderbilt 35 - Middle Tennessee 17 -8
Virginia 41 - FCS Team 17 Virginia 42 - FCS Team 13
Western Michigan 32 - Syracuse 31 0.525 Western Michigan 42 - Syracuse 55 14
Wisconsin 38 - Western Kentucky 17 0.925 Wisconsin 34 - Western Kentucky 3 -10
Wyoming 24 - Washington State 31 0.681 Wyoming 19 - Washington State 41 15


Number of FBS Games: 46
Number Correct: 37 = 80.4%
Expected Number Correct: 34.247 = 74.4%
Average Error: 15.45
Average Signed Error: -0.81

WEEK 2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 28 - FCS Team 17 Akron 41 - FCS Team 7
Alabama 49 - Arkansas State 10 0.989 Alabama 57 - Arkansas State 7 -11
Arizona State 34 - Michigan State 31 0.553 Arizona State 16 - Michigan State 13 0
Army 17 - Liberty 38 0.968 Army 38 - Liberty 14 -45
Auburn 52 - FCS Team 6 Auburn 63 - FCS Team 9
Boise State 41 - Connecticut 13 0.949 Boise State 62 - Connecticut 7 -27
Boston College 45 - FCS Team 10 Boston College 62 - FCS Team 14
Bowling Green 28 - Maryland 35 0.678 Bowling Green 14 - Maryland 45 24
Brigham Young 29 - California 28 0.529 Brigham Young 18 - California 21 4
Central Florida 49 - FCS Team 14 Central Florida 38 - FCS Team 0
Central Michigan 28 - Kansas 21 0.686 Central Michigan 7 - Kansas 31 31
Charlotte 10 - Appalachian State 35 0.906 Charlotte 9 - Appalachian State 45 11
Cincinnati 27 - Miami OH 14 0.782 Cincinnati 21 - Miami OH 0 -8
Coastal Carolina 23 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.518 Coastal Carolina 47 - Alabama Birmingham 24 -24
Colorado State 31 - Arkansas 38 0.667 Colorado State 34 - Arkansas 27 -14
East Carolina 28 - North Carolina 35 0.655 East Carolina 41 - North Carolina 19 -29
Florida 28 - Kentucky 24 0.643 Florida 16 - Kentucky 27 15
Florida Atlantic 32 - Air Force 31 0.525 Florida Atlantic 33 - Air Force 26 -6
Florida State 45 - FCS Team 7 Florida State 36 - FCS Team 26
Georgia Southern 28 - Massachusetts 24 0.554 Georgia Southern 34 - Massachusetts 13 -17
Hawaii 38 - Rice 21 0.797 Hawaii 43 - Rice 29 3
Houston 34 - Arizona 31 0.544 Houston 45 - Arizona 18 -24
Illinois 35 - FCS Team 17 Illinois 34 - FCS Team 14
Indiana 34 - Virginia 27 0.705 Indiana 20 - Virginia 16 3
Iowa 28 - Iowa State 20 0.71 Iowa 13 - Iowa State 3 -2
Kansas State 30 - Miss State 31 0.515 Kansas State 10 - Miss State 31 20
Kent State 27 - FCS Team 20 Kent State 54 - FCS Team 14
Louisiana State 49 - FCS Team 6 Louisiana State 31 - FCS Team 0
Louisiana Tech 38 - FCS Team 17 Louisiana Tech 54 - FCS Team 17
Louisville 52 - FCS Team 13 Louisville 31 - FCS Team 7
Marshall 35 - FCS Team 17 Marshall 32 - FCS Team 16
Miami FL 48 - FCS Team 10 Miami FL 77 - FCS Team 0
Michigan 38 - Western Michigan 20 0.922 Michigan 49 - Western Michigan 3 -28
Middle Tennessee 35 - FCS Team 20 Middle Tennessee 61 - FCS Team 37
Minnesota 28 - Fresno State 21 0.671 Minnesota 21 - Fresno State 14 0
Mississippi 52 - FCS Team 14 Mississippi 76 - FCS Team 41
Missouri 38 - Wyoming 21 0.818 Missouri 40 - Wyoming 13 -10
Navy 34 - Memphis 38 0.612 Navy 22 - Memphis 21 -5
NC State 38 - Georgia State 7 0.97 NC State 41 - Georgia State 7 -3
Nebraska 31 - Colorado 28 0.533 Nebraska 28 - Colorado 33 8
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - Texas El Paso 14 0.883 Nevada Las Vegas 52 - Texas El Paso 24 -7
North Texas 38 - FCS Team 20 North Texas 58 - FCS Team 16
Northern Illinois 21 - Utah 31 0.732 Northern Illinois 6 - Utah 17 1
Northwestern 31 - Duke 24 0.676 Northwestern 7 - Duke 21 21
Notre Dame 48 - Ball State 10 0.99 Notre Dame 24 - Ball State 16 30
Ohio State 49 - Rutgers 13 0.982 Ohio State 52 - Rutgers 3 -13
Oklahoma 49 - UCLA 21 0.927 Oklahoma 49 - UCLA 21 0
Oklahoma State 48 - South Alabama 13 0.981 Oklahoma State 55 - South Alabama 13 -7
Old Dominion 27 - Florida International 24 0.555 Old Dominion 20 - Florida International 28 11
Oregon 56 - FCS Team 17 Oregon 62 - FCS Team 14
Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 24 Oregon State 48 - FCS Team 25
Pittsburgh 31 - Penn State 38 0.657 Pittsburgh 6 - Penn State 51 38
Purdue 35 - Eastern Michigan 17 0.909 Purdue 19 - Eastern Michigan 20 19
San Diego State 41 - FCS Team 10 San Diego State 28 - FCS Team 14
South Carolina 24 - Georgia 34 0.773 South Carolina 17 - Georgia 41 14
South Florida 31 - Georgia Tech 34 0.573 South Florida 49 - Georgia Tech 38 -14
Southern Methodist 20 - Texas Christian 41 0.837 Southern Methodist 12 - Texas Christian 42 9
Southern Miss 34 - Louisiana Monroe 27 0.659 Southern Miss 20 - Louisiana Monroe 21 8
Stanford 31 - Southern California 27 0.631 Stanford 17 - Southern California 3 -10
Syracuse 48 - FCS Team 20 Syracuse 62 - FCS Team 10
Temple 28 - Buffalo 13 0.803 Temple 29 - Buffalo 36 22
Tennessee 42 - FCS Team 14 Tennessee 59 - FCS Team 3
Texas 38 - Tulsa 24 0.786 Texas 28 - Tulsa 21 7
Texas AM 28 - Clemson 38 0.701 Texas AM 26 - Clemson 28 -8
Texas San Antonio 17 - Baylor 34 0.825 Texas San Antonio 20 - Baylor 37 0
Texas State 25 - FCS Team 24 Texas State 36 - FCS Team 20
Texas Tech 52 - FCS Team 21 Texas Tech 77 - FCS Team 0
Troy 38 - FCS Team 17 Troy 59 - FCS Team 7
Tulane 34 - FCS Team 14 Tulane 42 - FCS Team 17
Utah State 35 - New Mexico St 14 0.883 Utah State 60 - New Mexico St 13 -26
Vanderbilt 31 - Nevada 21 0.735 Vanderbilt 41 - Nevada 10 -21
Virginia Tech 45 - FCS Team 6 Virginia Tech 62 - FCS Team 17
Wake Forest 42 - FCS Team 13 Wake Forest 51 - FCS Team 20
Washington 52 - FCS Team 6 Washington 45 - FCS Team 3
Washington State 45 - San Jose State 14 0.929 Washington State 31 - San Jose State 0 0
West Virginia 49 - FCS Team 13 West Virginia 52 - FCS Team 17
Western Kentucky 41 - FCS Team 17 Western Kentucky 28 - FCS Team 31
Wisconsin 38 - New Mexico 10 0.972 Wisconsin 45 - New Mexico 14 -3


Number of FBS Games: 49
Number Correct: 34 = 69.3%
Expected Number Correct: 36.798 = 75%
Average Error: 13.48
Average Signed Error: -1.29

WEEK 3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 14 - Tulane 28 0.766 Alabama Birmingham 31 - Tulane 24 -21
Arizona 45 - FCS Team 21 Arizona 62 - FCS Team 31
Arkansas 38 - North Texas 28 0.711 Arkansas 17 - North Texas 41 34
Army 34 - Hawaii 24 0.719 Army 28 - Hawaii 21 3
Auburn 31 - Louisiana State 21 0.733 Auburn 21 - Louisiana State 22 11
Baylor 27 - Duke 31 0.654 Baylor 27 - Duke 40 9
Bowling Green 41 - FCS Team 24 Bowling Green 42 - FCS Team 35
Buffalo 28 - Eastern Michigan 24 0.646 Buffalo 35 - Eastern Michigan 28 -3
California 45 - FCS Team 17 California 45 - FCS Team 23
Charlotte 20 - Old Dominion 21 0.54 Charlotte 28 - Old Dominion 25 -4
Cincinnati 38 - FCS Team 10 Cincinnati 63 - FCS Team 7
Clemson 41 - Georgia Southern 10 0.945 Clemson 38 - Georgia Southern 7 0
Coastal Carolina 38 - FCS Team 24 Coastal Carolina 58 - FCS Team 21
Colorado 48 - FCS Team 14 Colorado 45 - FCS Team 14
Connecticut 34 - FCS Team 21 Connecticut 56 - FCS Team 49
Florida 31 - Colorado State 21 0.708 Florida 48 - Colorado State 10 -28
Florida Atlantic 42 - FCS Team 17 Florida Atlantic 49 - FCS Team 28
Florida International 27 - Massachusetts 21 0.642 Florida International 63 - Massachusetts 24 -33
Georgia 48 - Middle Tennessee 10 0.992 Georgia 49 - Middle Tennessee 7 -4
Illinois 21 - South Florida 41 0.933 Illinois 19 - South Florida 25 -14
Indiana 35 - Ball State 17 0.805 Indiana 38 - Ball State 10 -10
Iowa 48 - FCS Team 6 Iowa 38 - FCS Team 14
Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma 41 0.829 Iowa State 27 - Oklahoma 37 -7
Kansas 24 - Rutgers 17 0.636 Kansas 55 - Rutgers 14 -34
Kansas State 35 - Texas San Antonio 10 0.987 Kansas State 41 - Texas San Antonio 17 1
Kentucky 48 - FCS Team 14 Kentucky 48 - FCS Team 10
Louisville 38 - Western Kentucky 20 0.883 Louisville 20 - Western Kentucky 17 15
Maryland 31 - Temple 24 0.688 Maryland 14 - Temple 35 28
Memphis 38 - Georgia State 10 0.92 Memphis 59 - Georgia State 22 -9
Michigan 41 - Southern Methodist 13 0.926 Michigan 45 - Southern Methodist 21 4
Minnesota 28 - Miami OH 3 0.959 Minnesota 26 - Miami OH 3 2
Miss State 45 - Louisiana Lafayette 10 0.985 Miss State 56 - Louisiana Lafayette 10 -11
Mississippi 28 - Alabama 45 0.825 Mississippi 7 - Alabama 62 38
Navy 45 - FCS Team 17 Navy 51 - FCS Team 21
Nebraska 35 - Troy 24 0.744 Nebraska 19 - Troy 24 16
Nevada 34 - Oregon State 35 0.545 Nevada 37 - Oregon State 35 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 42 - FCS Team 24 Nevada Las Vegas 46 - FCS Team 17
New Mexico St 24 - New Mexico 34 0.716 New Mexico St 25 - New Mexico 42 7
Northern Illinois 31 - Central Michigan 14 0.815 Northern Illinois 24 - Central Michigan 16 9
Northwestern 34 - Akron 10 0.925 Northwestern 34 - Akron 39 29
Notre Dame 28 - Vanderbilt 21 0.697 Notre Dame 22 - Vanderbilt 17 2
Oklahoma State 41 - Boise State 35 0.633 Oklahoma State 44 - Boise State 21 -17
Oregon 48 - San Jose State 14 0.967 Oregon 35 - San Jose State 22 21
Penn State 49 - Kent State 6 0.992 Penn State 63 - Kent State 10 -10
Pittsburgh 31 - Georgia Tech 35 0.584 Pittsburgh 24 - Georgia Tech 19 -9
Purdue 27 - Missouri 34 0.708 Purdue 37 - Missouri 40 -4
San Diego State 27 - Arizona State 28 0.529 San Diego State 28 - Arizona State 21 -8
South Alabama 28 - Texas State 14 0.792 South Alabama 41 - Texas State 31 4
Stanford 49 - FCS Team 3 Stanford 30 - FCS Team 10
Syracuse 28 - Florida State 35 0.694 Syracuse 30 - Florida State 7 -30
Tennessee 38 - Texas El Paso 13 0.983 Tennessee 24 - Texas El Paso 0 1
Texas 24 - Southern California 27 0.597 Texas 37 - Southern California 14 -26
Texas AM 48 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.984 Texas AM 48 - Louisiana Monroe 10 -7
Texas Christian 27 - Ohio State 41 0.794 Texas Christian 28 - Ohio State 40 -2
Texas Tech 34 - Houston 35 0.502 Texas Tech 63 - Houston 49 -15
Toledo 27 - Miami FL 31 0.589 Toledo 24 - Miami FL 49 21
Tulsa 31 - Arkansas State 28 0.585 Tulsa 20 - Arkansas State 29 12
UCLA 28 - Fresno State 27 0.577 UCLA 14 - Fresno State 38 25
Utah 21 - Washington 28 0.708 Utah 7 - Washington 21 7
Utah State 48 - FCS Team 17 Utah State 73 - FCS Team 12
Virginia 24 - Ohio 21 0.537 Virginia 45 - Ohio 31 -11
Wake Forest 28 - Boston College 27 0.562 Wake Forest 34 - Boston College 41 8
Washington State 49 - FCS Team 13 Washington State 59 - FCS Team 24
Western Michigan 42 - FCS Team 24 Western Michigan 68 - FCS Team 0
Wisconsin 31 - Brigham Young 10 0.962 Wisconsin 21 - Brigham Young 24 24
Wyoming 38 - FCS Team 17 Wyoming 17 - FCS Team 14


Number of FBS Games: 49
Number Correct: 32 = 65.3%
Expected Number Correct: 37.153 = 75.8%
Average Error: 13.28
Average Signed Error: 0.22

WEEK 4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 49 - Texas AM 21 0.968 Alabama 45 - Texas AM 23 6
Appalachian State 48 - FCS Team 13 Appalachian State 72 - FCS Team 7
Arkansas State 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 0.788 Arkansas State 27 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 4
Auburn 45 - Arkansas 13 0.98 Auburn 34 - Arkansas 3 1
Ball State 20 - Western Kentucky 27 0.661 Ball State 20 - Western Kentucky 28 1
Baylor 35 - Kansas 31 0.616 Baylor 26 - Kansas 7 -15
Bowling Green 23 - Miami OH 24 0.533 Bowling Green 23 - Miami OH 38 14
Brigham Young 42 - FCS Team 10 Brigham Young 30 - FCS Team 3
Central Florida 45 - Florida Atlantic 27 0.809 Central Florida 56 - Florida Atlantic 36 -2
Central Michigan 38 - FCS Team 17 Central Michigan 17 - FCS Team 5
Cincinnati 28 - Ohio 21 0.693 Cincinnati 34 - Ohio 30 3
Colorado State 42 - FCS Team 21 Colorado State 19 - FCS Team 35
Duke 49 - FCS Team 7 Duke 55 - FCS Team 13
Florida State 24 - Northern Illinois 17 0.677 Florida State 37 - Northern Illinois 19 -11
Georgia State 27 - Western Michigan 31 0.625 Georgia State 15 - Western Michigan 34 15
Georgia Tech 20 - Clemson 38 0.888 Georgia Tech 21 - Clemson 49 10
Hawaii 45 - FCS Team 21 Hawaii 42 - FCS Team 21
Houston 52 - FCS Team 17 Houston 70 - FCS Team 14
Illinois 17 - Penn State 42 0.959 Illinois 24 - Penn State 63 14
Indiana 21 - Michigan State 24 0.542 Indiana 21 - Michigan State 35 11
Iowa 24 - Wisconsin 20 0.605 Iowa 18 - Wisconsin 28 14
Iowa State 35 - Akron 17 0.823 Iowa State 26 - Akron 13 5
Kentucky 24 - Miss State 31 0.681 Kentucky 28 - Miss State 7 -28
Liberty 31 - North Texas 28 0.557 Liberty 7 - North Texas 47 43
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Coastal Carolina 34 0.605 Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Coastal Carolina 30 -4
Louisiana Monroe 21 - Troy 31 0.729 Louisiana Monroe 27 - Troy 35 -2
Louisiana State 38 - Louisiana Tech 10 0.971 Louisiana State 38 - Louisiana Tech 21 11
Marshall 21 - NC State 31 0.782 Marshall 20 - NC State 37 7
Maryland 17 - Minnesota 24 0.669 Maryland 42 - Minnesota 13 -36
Massachusetts 27 - Charlotte 21 0.608 Massachusetts 49 - Charlotte 31 -12
Memphis 42 - South Alabama 17 0.925 Memphis 52 - South Alabama 35 8
Miami FL 41 - Florida International 20 0.89 Miami FL 31 - Florida International 17 7
Michigan 35 - Nebraska 17 0.912 Michigan 56 - Nebraska 10 -28
Mississippi 45 - Kent State 17 0.947 Mississippi 38 - Kent State 17 7
Missouri 28 - Georgia 42 0.818 Missouri 29 - Georgia 43 0
North Carolina 24 - Pittsburgh 27 0.604 North Carolina 38 - Pittsburgh 35 -6
Ohio State 48 - Tulane 10 0.991 Ohio State 49 - Tulane 6 -5
Oklahoma 45 - Army 20 0.951 Oklahoma 28 - Army 21 18
Oklahoma State 55 - Texas Tech 34 0.855 Oklahoma State 17 - Texas Tech 41 45
Old Dominion 6 - Virginia Tech 34 0.967 Old Dominion 49 - Virginia Tech 35 -42
Oregon 24 - Stanford 35 0.737 Oregon 31 - Stanford 38 -4
Oregon State 37 - Arizona 38 0.538 Oregon State 14 - Arizona 35 20
Purdue 28 - Boston College 34 0.63 Purdue 30 - Boston College 13 -23
Rutgers 21 - Buffalo 31 0.747 Rutgers 13 - Buffalo 42 19
San Diego State 31 - Eastern Michigan 17 0.874 San Diego State 23 - Eastern Michigan 20 11
South Florida 38 - East Carolina 28 0.718 South Florida 20 - East Carolina 13 3
Southern California 27 - Washington State 24 0.53 Southern California 39 - Washington State 36 0
Southern Methodist 27 - Navy 35 0.694 Southern Methodist 31 - Navy 30 -9
Southern Miss 27 - Rice 20 0.709 Southern Miss 40 - Rice 22 -11
Syracuse 42 - Connecticut 21 0.873 Syracuse 51 - Connecticut 21 -9
Temple 34 - Tulsa 17 0.795 Temple 31 - Tulsa 17 3
Tennessee 17 - Florida 24 0.71 Tennessee 21 - Florida 47 19
Texas 27 - Texas Christian 28 0.577 Texas 31 - Texas Christian 16 -16
Texas El Paso 21 - New Mexico St 24 0.522 Texas El Paso 20 - New Mexico St 27 4
Texas San Antonio 31 - Texas State 17 0.838 Texas San Antonio 25 - Texas State 21 10
Toledo 38 - Nevada 27 0.769 Toledo 63 - Nevada 44 -8
Utah State 35 - Air Force 24 0.746 Utah State 42 - Air Force 32 1
Vanderbilt 24 - South Carolina 27 0.557 Vanderbilt 14 - South Carolina 37 20
Virginia 27 - Louisville 28 0.579 Virginia 27 - Louisville 3 -25
Wake Forest 24 - Notre Dame 27 0.622 Wake Forest 27 - Notre Dame 56 26
Washington 35 - Arizona State 20 0.851 Washington 27 - Arizona State 20 8
West Virginia 34 - Kansas State 27 0.721 West Virginia 35 - Kansas State 6 -22


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 44 = 80%
Expected Number Correct: 40.966 = 74.4%
Average Error: 12.83
Average Signed Error: 1.27

WEEK 5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - Nevada 27 0.824 Air Force 25 - Nevada 28 14
Alabama 59 - Louisiana Lafayette 3 0.992 Alabama 56 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 14
Alabama Birmingham 31 - Charlotte 17 0.76 Alabama Birmingham 28 - Charlotte 7 -7
Appalachian State 38 - South Alabama 14 0.897 Appalachian State 52 - South Alabama 7 -21
Arizona 27 - Southern California 34 0.719 Arizona 20 - Southern California 24 -3
Arizona State 45 - Oregon State 20 0.963 Arizona State 52 - Oregon State 24 -3
Auburn 41 - Southern Miss 7 0.988 Auburn 24 - Southern Miss 13 23
Ball State 27 - Kent State 21 0.658 Ball State 52 - Kent State 24 -22
Boston College 24 - Temple 28 0.598 Boston College 45 - Temple 35 -14
Buffalo 27 - Army 24 0.564 Buffalo 13 - Army 42 32
California 35 - Oregon 34 0.517 California 24 - Oregon 42 19
Central Florida 45 - Pittsburgh 27 0.92 Central Florida 45 - Pittsburgh 14 -13
Clemson 42 - Syracuse 24 0.891 Clemson 27 - Syracuse 23 14
Colorado 34 - UCLA 27 0.702 Colorado 38 - UCLA 16 -15
Connecticut 17 - Cincinnati 31 0.807 Connecticut 7 - Cincinnati 49 28
Duke 34 - Virginia Tech 17 0.756 Duke 14 - Virginia Tech 31 34
East Carolina 34 - Old Dominion 17 0.757 East Carolina 37 - Old Dominion 35 15
Eastern Michigan 27 - Northern Illinois 21 0.717 Eastern Michigan 23 - Northern Illinois 26 9
Florida International 42 - FCS Team 17 Florida International 55 - FCS Team 9
Fresno State 41 - Toledo 28 0.749 Fresno State 49 - Toledo 27 -9
Georgia 45 - Tennessee 13 0.992 Georgia 38 - Tennessee 12 6
Georgia Southern 20 - Arkansas State 21 0.569 Georgia Southern 28 - Arkansas State 21 -8
Georgia State 21 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.595 Georgia State 56 - Louisiana Monroe 14 -45
Georgia Tech 45 - Bowling Green 24 0.934 Georgia Tech 63 - Bowling Green 17 -25
Kansas 21 - Oklahoma State 35 0.742 Kansas 28 - Oklahoma State 48 6
Kansas State 21 - Texas 31 0.734 Kansas State 14 - Texas 19 -5
Kentucky 27 - South Carolina 24 0.546 Kentucky 24 - South Carolina 10 -11
Louisiana State 38 - Mississippi 24 0.785 Louisiana State 45 - Mississippi 16 -15
Louisville 21 - Florida State 20 0.552 Louisville 24 - Florida State 28 5
Miami FL 38 - North Carolina 17 0.87 Miami FL 47 - North Carolina 10 -16
Miami OH 21 - Western Michigan 24 0.597 Miami OH 39 - Western Michigan 40 -2
Michigan State 35 - Central Michigan 10 0.95 Michigan State 31 - Central Michigan 20 14
Middle Tennessee 31 - Florida Atlantic 34 0.565 Middle Tennessee 25 - Florida Atlantic 24 -4
Miss State 28 - Florida 27 0.558 Miss State 6 - Florida 13 8
NC State 28 - Virginia 21 0.701 NC State 35 - Virginia 21 -7
Nebraska 24 - Purdue 31 0.716 Nebraska 28 - Purdue 42 7
New Mexico 28 - Liberty 27 0.53 New Mexico 43 - Liberty 52 10
North Texas 35 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.729 North Texas 27 - Louisiana Tech 29 13
Northwestern 24 - Michigan 31 0.742 Northwestern 17 - Michigan 20 -4
Notre Dame 23 - Stanford 24 0.506 Notre Dame 38 - Stanford 17 -22
Ohio 45 - Massachusetts 24 0.863 Ohio 58 - Massachusetts 42 5
Oklahoma 45 - Baylor 27 0.853 Oklahoma 66 - Baylor 33 -15
Penn State 41 - Ohio State 38 0.527 Penn State 26 - Ohio State 27 4
Rutgers 17 - Indiana 34 0.849 Rutgers 17 - Indiana 24 -10
San Jose State 24 - Hawaii 31 0.706 San Jose State 41 - Hawaii 44 -4
Southern Methodist 45 - FCS Team 21 Southern Methodist 63 - FCS Team 27
Texas AM 41 - Arkansas 21 0.939 Texas AM 24 - Arkansas 17 13
Texas Christian 28 - Iowa State 21 0.724 Texas Christian 17 - Iowa State 14 4
Texas San Antonio 27 - Texas El Paso 10 0.863 Texas San Antonio 30 - Texas El Paso 21 8
Texas Tech 39 - West Virginia 38 0.521 Texas Tech 34 - West Virginia 42 9
Troy 31 - Coastal Carolina 24 0.72 Troy 45 - Coastal Carolina 21 -17
Tulane 21 - Memphis 34 0.786 Tulane 40 - Memphis 24 -29
Vanderbilt 45 - FCS Team 10 Vanderbilt 31 - FCS Team 27
Wake Forest 38 - Rice 21 0.88 Wake Forest 56 - Rice 24 -15
Washington 28 - Brigham Young 13 0.867 Washington 35 - Brigham Young 7 -13
Washington State 27 - Utah 24 0.625 Washington State 28 - Utah 24 -1
Western Kentucky 24 - Marshall 21 0.594 Western Kentucky 17 - Marshall 20 6
Wyoming 20 - Boise State 34 0.777 Wyoming 14 - Boise State 34 6


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 37 = 67.2%
Expected Number Correct: 40.786 = 74.1%
Average Error: 12.74
Average Signed Error: -0.9

WEEK 6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Navy 28 0.593 Air Force 35 - Navy 7 -32
Akron 31 - Miami OH 17 0.77 Akron 17 - Miami OH 41 38
Arizona 31 - California 27 0.621 Arizona 24 - California 17 -3
Arkansas 17 - Alabama 48 0.987 Arkansas 31 - Alabama 65 3
Ball State 24 - Northern Illinois 28 0.605 Ball State 16 - Northern Illinois 24 4
Baylor 31 - Kansas State 27 0.618 Baylor 37 - Kansas State 34 1
Boise State 28 - San Diego State 20 0.736 Boise State 13 - San Diego State 19 14
Brigham Young 27 - Utah State 24 0.581 Brigham Young 20 - Utah State 45 28
Central Florida 49 - Southern Methodist 27 0.971 Central Florida 48 - Southern Methodist 20 -6
Central Michigan 24 - Buffalo 28 0.552 Central Michigan 24 - Buffalo 34 6
Cincinnati 24 - Tulane 14 0.742 Cincinnati 37 - Tulane 21 -6
Colorado 32 - Arizona State 31 0.547 Colorado 28 - Arizona State 21 -6
Florida 24 - Louisiana State 27 0.567 Florida 27 - Louisiana State 19 -11
Florida Atlantic 38 - Old Dominion 27 0.7 Florida Atlantic 52 - Old Dominion 33 -8
Georgia 42 - Vanderbilt 17 0.963 Georgia 41 - Vanderbilt 13 -3
Georgia Southern 31 - South Alabama 14 0.812 Georgia Southern 48 - South Alabama 13 -18
Hawaii 31 - Wyoming 27 0.625 Hawaii 17 - Wyoming 13 0
Houston 41 - Tulsa 24 0.812 Houston 41 - Tulsa 26 2
Kent State 27 - Ohio 41 0.875 Kent State 26 - Ohio 27 -13
Louisiana Tech 31 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.764 Louisiana Tech 7 - Alabama Birmingham 28 35
Louisville 31 - Georgia Tech 28 0.545 Louisville 31 - Georgia Tech 66 38
Marshall 27 - Middle Tennessee 21 0.704 Marshall 24 - Middle Tennessee 34 16
Massachusetts 24 - South Florida 41 0.866 Massachusetts 42 - South Florida 58 -1
Memphis 45 - Connecticut 20 0.882 Memphis 55 - Connecticut 14 -16
Miami FL 31 - Florida State 17 0.78 Miami FL 28 - Florida State 27 13
Michigan 35 - Maryland 20 0.791 Michigan 42 - Maryland 21 -6
Michigan State 27 - Northwestern 20 0.7 Michigan State 19 - Northwestern 29 17
Minnesota 14 - Iowa 20 0.635 Minnesota 31 - Iowa 48 11
Miss State 21 - Auburn 24 0.558 Miss State 23 - Auburn 9 -17
Mississippi 45 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.85 Mississippi 70 - Louisiana Monroe 21 -21
NC State 34 - Boston College 24 0.779 NC State 28 - Boston College 23 5
Nevada 24 - Fresno State 38 0.837 Nevada 3 - Fresno State 21 4
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - New Mexico 31 0.674 Nevada Las Vegas 14 - New Mexico 50 40
New Mexico St 21 - Liberty 35 0.758 New Mexico St 49 - Liberty 41 -22
Ohio State 42 - Indiana 17 0.976 Ohio State 49 - Indiana 26 2
Oklahoma 42 - Texas 31 0.765 Oklahoma 45 - Texas 48 14
Oklahoma State 34 - Iowa State 24 0.726 Oklahoma State 42 - Iowa State 48 16
Oregon State 27 - Washington State 45 0.9 Oregon State 37 - Washington State 56 1
Pittsburgh 27 - Syracuse 34 0.692 Pittsburgh 44 - Syracuse 37 -14
Rice 27 - Texas San Antonio 24 0.591 Rice 3 - Texas San Antonio 20 20
Rutgers 24 - Illinois 27 0.565 Rutgers 17 - Illinois 38 18
San Jose State 28 - Colorado State 31 0.554 San Jose State 30 - Colorado State 42 9
South Carolina 35 - Missouri 31 0.614 South Carolina 37 - Missouri 35 2
Stanford 27 - Utah 17 0.754 Stanford 21 - Utah 40 29
Temple 34 - East Carolina 21 0.759 Temple 49 - East Carolina 6 -30
Texas AM 27 - Kentucky 31 0.635 Texas AM 20 - Kentucky 14 -10
Texas El Paso 10 - North Texas 38 0.956 Texas El Paso 24 - North Texas 27 -25
Texas State 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.743 Texas State 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 42 5
Toledo 52 - Bowling Green 27 0.946 Toledo 52 - Bowling Green 36 9
Troy 31 - Georgia State 17 0.739 Troy 37 - Georgia State 20 -3
UCLA 14 - Washington 34 0.94 UCLA 24 - Washington 31 -13
Virginia Tech 24 - Notre Dame 28 0.591 Virginia Tech 23 - Notre Dame 45 18
Wake Forest 24 - Clemson 38 0.841 Wake Forest 3 - Clemson 63 46
West Virginia 42 - Kansas 20 0.883 West Virginia 38 - Kansas 22 6
Western Michigan 31 - Eastern Michigan 27 0.596 Western Michigan 27 - Eastern Michigan 24 1
Wisconsin 38 - Nebraska 14 0.946 Wisconsin 41 - Nebraska 24 7


Number of FBS Games: 56
Number Correct: 38 = 67.8%
Expected Number Correct: 41.512 = 74.1%
Average Error: 13.6
Average Signed Error: 3.46

WEEK 7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 52 - Missouri 31 0.908 Alabama 39 - Missouri 10 -8
Arkansas 31 - Mississippi 41 0.69 Arkansas 33 - Mississippi 37 -6
Arkansas State 17 - Appalachian State 31 0.769 Arkansas State 9 - Appalachian State 35 12
Auburn 31 - Tennessee 14 0.848 Auburn 24 - Tennessee 30 23
Boston College 38 - Louisville 24 0.777 Boston College 38 - Louisville 20 -4
Bowling Green 28 - Western Michigan 41 0.807 Bowling Green 35 - Western Michigan 42 -6
Brigham Young 31 - Hawaii 21 0.714 Brigham Young 49 - Hawaii 23 -16
Buffalo 34 - Akron 21 0.734 Buffalo 24 - Akron 6 -5
California 24 - UCLA 27 0.538 California 7 - UCLA 37 27
Central Michigan 28 - Ball State 21 0.649 Central Michigan 23 - Ball State 24 8
Charlotte 13 - Western Kentucky 24 0.823 Charlotte 40 - Western Kentucky 14 -37
Coastal Carolina 38 - Louisiana Monroe 21 0.76 Coastal Carolina 20 - Louisiana Monroe 45 42
Colorado State 35 - New Mexico 34 0.57 Colorado State 20 - New Mexico 18 -1
East Carolina 27 - Houston 38 0.745 East Carolina 20 - Houston 42 11
Eastern Michigan 35 - Toledo 34 0.535 Eastern Michigan 28 - Toledo 26 -1
Florida International 27 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.551 Florida International 24 - Middle Tennessee 21 0
Fresno State 27 - Wyoming 7 0.875 Fresno State 27 - Wyoming 3 -4
Georgia Tech 34 - Duke 31 0.532 Georgia Tech 14 - Duke 28 17
Illinois 27 - Purdue 34 0.733 Illinois 7 - Purdue 46 32
Indiana 24 - Iowa 31 0.727 Indiana 16 - Iowa 42 19
Iowa State 27 - West Virginia 31 0.649 Iowa State 30 - West Virginia 14 -20
Kansas State 31 - Oklahoma State 38 0.617 Kansas State 31 - Oklahoma State 12 -26
Liberty 28 - Troy 34 0.586 Liberty 22 - Troy 16 -12
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - New Mexico St 27 0.713 Louisiana Lafayette 66 - New Mexico St 38 -21
Louisiana State 27 - Georgia 34 0.728 Louisiana State 36 - Georgia 16 -27
Maryland 38 - Rutgers 14 0.875 Maryland 34 - Rutgers 7 -3
Memphis 34 - Central Florida 45 0.741 Memphis 30 - Central Florida 31 -10
Miami OH 31 - Kent State 17 0.799 Miami OH 31 - Kent State 6 -11
Michigan 31 - Wisconsin 24 0.703 Michigan 38 - Wisconsin 13 -18
Navy 20 - Temple 34 0.75 Navy 17 - Temple 24 -7
Nevada 20 - Boise State 34 0.792 Nevada 27 - Boise State 31 -10
North Carolina 21 - Virginia Tech 35 0.728 North Carolina 19 - Virginia Tech 22 -11
North Texas 31 - Southern Miss 17 0.72 North Texas 30 - Southern Miss 7 -9
Northern Illinois 31 - Ohio 24 0.704 Northern Illinois 24 - Ohio 21 4
Northwestern 35 - Nebraska 21 0.803 Northwestern 34 - Nebraska 31 11
Notre Dame 41 - Pittsburgh 21 0.865 Notre Dame 19 - Pittsburgh 14 15
Ohio State 45 - Minnesota 20 0.93 Ohio State 30 - Minnesota 14 9
Old Dominion 27 - Marshall 31 0.626 Old Dominion 20 - Marshall 42 18
Oregon 27 - Washington 35 0.72 Oregon 30 - Washington 27 -11
Penn State 41 - Michigan State 21 0.911 Penn State 17 - Michigan State 21 24
Rice 13 - Alabama Birmingham 28 0.791 Rice 0 - Alabama Birmingham 42 27
San Diego State 27 - Air Force 14 0.763 San Diego State 21 - Air Force 17 9
San Jose State 14 - Army 31 0.861 San Jose State 3 - Army 52 32
South Alabama 34 - FCS Team 24 South Alabama 45 - FCS Team 7
South Carolina 31 - Texas AM 27 0.65 South Carolina 23 - Texas AM 26 7
Southern California 26 - Colorado 27 0.518 Southern California 31 - Colorado 20 -12
Texas 41 - Baylor 28 0.79 Texas 23 - Baylor 17 7
Texas Christian 38 - Texas Tech 31 0.628 Texas Christian 14 - Texas Tech 17 10
Texas San Antonio 14 - Louisiana Tech 20 0.639 Texas San Antonio 3 - Louisiana Tech 31 22
Texas State 10 - Georgia Southern 34 0.938 Texas State 13 - Georgia Southern 15 -22
Tulsa 24 - South Florida 31 0.682 Tulsa 24 - South Florida 25 -6
Utah 31 - Arizona 17 0.831 Utah 42 - Arizona 10 -18
Utah State 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.901 Utah State 59 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 -6
Vanderbilt 21 - Florida 31 0.747 Vanderbilt 27 - Florida 37 0
Virginia 21 - Miami FL 27 0.667 Virginia 16 - Miami FL 13 -9


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 39 = 72.2%
Expected Number Correct: 39.651 = 73.4%
Average Error: 13.75
Average Signed Error: 0.53

WEEK 8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 21 - North Texas 20 0.535 Alabama Birmingham 29 - North Texas 21 -7
Appalachian State 45 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 0.946 Appalachian State 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 18
Arizona State 29 - Stanford 28 0.51 Arizona State 13 - Stanford 20 8
Arkansas 31 - Tulsa 24 0.675 Arkansas 23 - Tulsa 0 -16
Arkansas State 27 - Georgia State 14 0.737 Arkansas State 51 - Georgia State 35 -3
Army 28 - Miami OH 10 0.856 Army 31 - Miami OH 30 17
Ball State 21 - Eastern Michigan 24 0.616 Ball State 20 - Eastern Michigan 42 19
Boise State 35 - Colorado State 21 0.809 Boise State 56 - Colorado State 28 -14
Central Michigan 27 - Western Michigan 28 0.53 Central Michigan 10 - Western Michigan 35 24
Clemson 34 - NC State 17 0.823 Clemson 41 - NC State 7 -17
Duke 24 - Virginia 14 0.727 Duke 14 - Virginia 28 24
East Carolina 20 - Central Florida 41 0.876 East Carolina 10 - Central Florida 37 6
Florida International 35 - Rice 10 0.962 Florida International 36 - Rice 17 6
Florida State 35 - Wake Forest 24 0.725 Florida State 38 - Wake Forest 17 -10
Hawaii 32 - Nevada 31 0.529 Hawaii 22 - Nevada 40 19
Indiana 24 - Penn State 38 0.817 Indiana 28 - Penn State 33 -9
Iowa 35 - Maryland 21 0.772 Iowa 23 - Maryland 0 -9
Kent State 17 - Akron 24 0.681 Kent State 23 - Akron 24 -6
Kentucky 34 - Vanderbilt 20 0.785 Kentucky 14 - Vanderbilt 7 7
Liberty 41 - FCS Team 20 Liberty 48 - FCS Team 41
Louisiana Monroe 28 - Texas State 21 0.638 Louisiana Monroe 20 - Texas State 14 1
Louisiana State 28 - Miss State 20 0.72 Louisiana State 19 - Miss State 3 -8
Louisiana Tech 31 - Texas El Paso 7 0.871 Louisiana Tech 31 - Texas El Paso 24 17
Marshall 32 - Florida Atlantic 31 0.518 Marshall 31 - Florida Atlantic 7 -23
Massachusetts 38 - Coastal Carolina 34 0.581 Massachusetts 13 - Coastal Carolina 24 15
Michigan State 21 - Michigan 28 0.705 Michigan State 7 - Michigan 21 7
Middle Tennessee 28 - Charlotte 14 0.79 Middle Tennessee 21 - Charlotte 13 6
Mississippi 31 - Auburn 34 0.553 Mississippi 16 - Auburn 31 12
Missouri 42 - Memphis 31 0.746 Missouri 65 - Memphis 33 -21
Navy 28 - Houston 35 0.677 Navy 36 - Houston 49 6
Nebraska 27 - Minnesota 31 0.626 Nebraska 53 - Minnesota 28 -29
Nevada Las Vegas 21 - Air Force 34 0.754 Nevada Las Vegas 35 - Air Force 41 -7
New Mexico 17 - Fresno State 31 0.773 New Mexico 7 - Fresno State 38 17
New Mexico St 20 - Georgia Southern 31 0.745 New Mexico St 31 - Georgia Southern 48 6
Ohio 42 - Bowling Green 28 0.83 Ohio 49 - Bowling Green 14 -21
Oregon State 33 - California 34 0.517 Oregon State 7 - California 49 41
Purdue 28 - Ohio State 41 0.796 Purdue 49 - Ohio State 20 -42
Rutgers 14 - Northwestern 35 0.855 Rutgers 15 - Northwestern 18 -18
San Diego State 35 - San Jose State 7 0.982 San Diego State 16 - San Jose State 13 25
South Florida 42 - Connecticut 14 0.969 South Florida 38 - Connecticut 30 20
Southern Miss 20 - Texas San Antonio 13 0.732 Southern Miss 27 - Texas San Antonio 17 -3
Syracuse 41 - North Carolina 24 0.789 Syracuse 40 - North Carolina 37 14
Temple 27 - Cincinnati 20 0.651 Temple 24 - Cincinnati 17 0
Tennessee 21 - Alabama 45 0.958 Tennessee 21 - Alabama 58 13
Texas Christian 31 - Oklahoma 41 0.74 Texas Christian 27 - Oklahoma 52 15
Texas Tech 45 - Kansas 27 0.8 Texas Tech 48 - Kansas 16 -14
Toledo 35 - Buffalo 34 0.522 Toledo 17 - Buffalo 31 15
Tulane 31 - Southern Methodist 24 0.701 Tulane 23 - Southern Methodist 27 11
UCLA 31 - Arizona 21 0.743 UCLA 31 - Arizona 30 9
Utah 28 - Southern California 20 0.728 Utah 41 - Southern California 28 -5
Washington 31 - Colorado 20 0.759 Washington 27 - Colorado 13 -3
Washington State 41 - Oregon 35 0.621 Washington State 34 - Oregon 20 -8
Western Kentucky 28 - Old Dominion 24 0.618 Western Kentucky 34 - Old Dominion 37 7
Wisconsin 38 - Illinois 13 0.963 Wisconsin 49 - Illinois 20 -4
Wyoming 17 - Utah State 31 0.818 Wyoming 16 - Utah State 24 -6


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 45 = 83.3%
Expected Number Correct: 39.7 = 73.5%
Average Error: 13.11
Average Signed Error: 1.88

WEEK 9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Boise State 31 0.669 Air Force 38 - Boise State 48 3
Akron 21 - Central Michigan 20 0.579 Akron 17 - Central Michigan 10 -6
Arizona 28 - Oregon 34 0.672 Arizona 44 - Oregon 15 -35
Arkansas 27 - Vanderbilt 31 0.584 Arkansas 31 - Vanderbilt 45 10
Boston College 27 - Miami FL 28 0.528 Boston College 27 - Miami FL 14 -14
Brigham Young 21 - Northern Illinois 17 0.638 Brigham Young 6 - Northern Illinois 7 5
California 14 - Washington 31 0.807 California 12 - Washington 10 -19
Charlotte 16 - Southern Miss 17 0.534 Charlotte 20 - Southern Miss 17 -4
Colorado 48 - Oregon State 20 0.948 Colorado 34 - Oregon State 41 35
Colorado State 24 - Wyoming 21 0.579 Colorado State 21 - Wyoming 34 16
Connecticut 30 - Massachusetts 31 0.531 Connecticut 17 - Massachusetts 22 4
Eastern Michigan 20 - Army 27 0.662 Eastern Michigan 22 - Army 37 8
Florida 31 - Georgia 38 0.645 Florida 17 - Georgia 36 12
Florida Atlantic 28 - Louisiana Tech 27 0.506 Florida Atlantic 13 - Louisiana Tech 21 9
Florida State 17 - Clemson 34 0.82 Florida State 10 - Clemson 59 32
Fresno State 38 - Hawaii 14 0.948 Fresno State 50 - Hawaii 20 -6
Georgia Southern 14 - Appalachian State 24 0.75 Georgia Southern 34 - Appalachian State 14 -30
Georgia State 27 - Coastal Carolina 24 0.533 Georgia State 34 - Coastal Carolina 37 6
Houston 42 - South Florida 31 0.769 Houston 57 - South Florida 36 -10
Iowa State 34 - Texas Tech 31 0.573 Iowa State 40 - Texas Tech 31 -6
Kansas 21 - Texas Christian 34 0.772 Kansas 27 - Texas Christian 26 -14
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Arkansas State 27 0.546 Louisiana Lafayette 47 - Arkansas State 43 -3
Louisville 35 - Wake Forest 31 0.591 Louisville 35 - Wake Forest 56 25
Maryland 35 - Illinois 20 0.848 Maryland 63 - Illinois 33 -15
Michigan State 24 - Purdue 27 0.553 Michigan State 23 - Purdue 13 -13
Minnesota 31 - Indiana 28 0.54 Minnesota 38 - Indiana 31 -4
Miss State 27 - Texas AM 21 0.581 Miss State 28 - Texas AM 13 -9
Missouri 34 - Kentucky 31 0.545 Missouri 14 - Kentucky 15 4
Nebraska 52 - FCS Team 20 Nebraska 45 - FCS Team 9
Nevada 17 - San Diego State 21 0.628 Nevada 28 - San Diego State 24 -8
North Texas 38 - Rice 7 0.957 North Texas 41 - Rice 17 7
Northwestern 24 - Wisconsin 28 0.626 Northwestern 31 - Wisconsin 17 -18
Notre Dame 38 - Navy 17 0.87 Notre Dame 44 - Navy 22 -1
Ohio 35 - Ball State 21 0.777 Ohio 52 - Ball State 14 -24
Oklahoma 48 - Kansas State 28 0.904 Oklahoma 51 - Kansas State 14 -17
Oklahoma State 31 - Texas 35 0.564 Oklahoma State 38 - Texas 35 -7
Old Dominion 24 - Middle Tennessee 31 0.692 Old Dominion 17 - Middle Tennessee 51 27
Penn State 31 - Iowa 28 0.563 Penn State 30 - Iowa 24 -3
Pittsburgh 21 - Duke 24 0.563 Pittsburgh 54 - Duke 45 -12
San Jose State 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 0.539 San Jose State 50 - Nevada Las Vegas 37 -10
South Alabama 17 - Troy 31 0.771 South Alabama 17 - Troy 38 7
South Carolina 38 - Tennessee 27 0.808 South Carolina 27 - Tennessee 24 8
Southern California 31 - Arizona State 27 0.708 Southern California 35 - Arizona State 38 7
Southern Methodist 21 - Cincinnati 31 0.744 Southern Methodist 20 - Cincinnati 26 -4
Stanford 31 - Washington State 27 0.601 Stanford 38 - Washington State 41 7
Syracuse 31 - NC State 34 0.575 Syracuse 51 - NC State 41 -13
Texas El Paso 10 - Alabama Birmingham 27 0.799 Texas El Paso 0 - Alabama Birmingham 19 2
Texas State 28 - New Mexico St 27 0.504 Texas State 27 - New Mexico St 20 -6
Tulsa 21 - Tulane 20 0.531 Tulsa 17 - Tulane 24 8
UCLA 24 - Utah 31 0.722 UCLA 10 - Utah 41 24
Utah State 38 - New Mexico 21 0.841 Utah State 61 - New Mexico 19 -25
Virginia 34 - North Carolina 17 0.808 Virginia 31 - North Carolina 21 7
Virginia Tech 34 - Georgia Tech 31 0.538 Virginia Tech 28 - Georgia Tech 49 24
West Virginia 41 - Baylor 28 0.774 West Virginia 58 - Baylor 14 -31
Western Kentucky 21 - Florida International 24 0.627 Western Kentucky 17 - Florida International 38 18
Western Michigan 38 - Toledo 34 0.648 Western Michigan 24 - Toledo 51 31


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 31 = 56.3%
Expected Number Correct: 36.933 = 67.1%
Average Error: 12.96
Average Signed Error: -0.39

WEEK 10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 13 - Northern Illinois 17 0.634 Akron 26 - Northern Illinois 36 6
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Texas San Antonio 3 0.9 Alabama Birmingham 52 - Texas San Antonio 3 -28
Arizona 31 - Colorado 27 0.607 Arizona 42 - Colorado 34 -4
Arizona State 24 - Utah 31 0.726 Arizona State 38 - Utah 20 -25
Arkansas State 35 - South Alabama 20 0.871 Arkansas State 38 - South Alabama 14 -9
Army 34 - Air Force 20 0.786 Army 17 - Air Force 14 11
Auburn 28 - Texas AM 24 0.599 Auburn 28 - Texas AM 24 0
Baylor 35 - Oklahoma State 41 0.619 Baylor 35 - Oklahoma State 31 -10
Boise State 31 - Brigham Young 20 0.762 Boise State 21 - Brigham Young 16 6
Bowling Green 31 - Kent State 27 0.586 Bowling Green 28 - Kent State 35 11
Buffalo 27 - Miami OH 17 0.744 Buffalo 51 - Miami OH 42 1
Central Florida 31 - Temple 24 0.712 Central Florida 52 - Temple 40 -5
Cincinnati 31 - Navy 17 0.79 Cincinnati 42 - Navy 0 -28
Clemson 52 - Louisville 10 0.985 Clemson 77 - Louisville 16 -19
Coastal Carolina 14 - Appalachian State 28 0.749 Coastal Carolina 7 - Appalachian State 23 2
East Carolina 27 - Memphis 35 0.7 East Carolina 41 - Memphis 59 10
Eastern Michigan 28 - Central Michigan 14 0.811 Eastern Michigan 17 - Central Michigan 7 4
Florida 38 - Missouri 31 0.723 Florida 17 - Missouri 38 28
Florida International 28 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.672 Florida International 14 - Florida Atlantic 49 42
Georgia State 24 - Texas State 17 0.68 Georgia State 31 - Texas State 40 16
Hawaii 27 - Utah State 45 0.828 Hawaii 17 - Utah State 56 21
Illinois 28 - Minnesota 38 0.741 Illinois 55 - Minnesota 31 -34
Kansas 21 - Iowa State 35 0.769 Kansas 3 - Iowa State 27 10
Kentucky 24 - Georgia 31 0.701 Kentucky 17 - Georgia 34 10
Louisiana Monroe 14 - Georgia Southern 31 0.748 Louisiana Monroe 44 - Georgia Southern 25 -36
Louisiana State 31 - Alabama 38 0.645 Louisiana State 0 - Alabama 29 22
Maryland 24 - Michigan State 27 0.582 Maryland 3 - Michigan State 24 18
Massachusetts 28 - Liberty 31 0.561 Massachusetts 62 - Liberty 59 -6
Miami FL 28 - Duke 20 0.694 Miami FL 12 - Duke 20 16
Michigan 34 - Penn State 27 0.713 Michigan 42 - Penn State 7 -28
Middle Tennessee 31 - Western Kentucky 13 0.868 Middle Tennessee 29 - Western Kentucky 10 -1
Miss State 31 - Louisiana Tech 10 0.881 Miss State 45 - Louisiana Tech 3 -21
Mississippi 35 - South Carolina 38 0.581 Mississippi 44 - South Carolina 48 1
NC State 31 - Florida State 24 0.737 NC State 47 - Florida State 28 -12
Nevada Las Vegas 17 - Fresno State 42 0.922 Nevada Las Vegas 3 - Fresno State 48 20
New Mexico 14 - San Diego State 24 0.717 New Mexico 23 - San Diego State 31 -2
New Mexico St 38 - FCS Team 28 New Mexico St 52 - FCS Team 42
North Carolina 31 - Georgia Tech 38 0.693 North Carolina 28 - Georgia Tech 38 3
Northwestern 24 - Notre Dame 28 0.572 Northwestern 21 - Notre Dame 31 6
Ohio State 48 - Nebraska 27 0.833 Ohio State 36 - Nebraska 31 16
Oregon 34 - UCLA 28 0.593 Oregon 42 - UCLA 21 -15
Oregon State 28 - Southern California 42 0.79 Oregon State 21 - Southern California 38 3
Purdue 26 - Iowa 27 0.507 Purdue 38 - Iowa 36 -3
Rice 17 - Texas El Paso 20 0.537 Rice 26 - Texas El Paso 34 5
South Florida 31 - Tulane 24 0.657 South Florida 15 - Tulane 41 33
Southern Methodist 31 - Houston 42 0.763 Southern Methodist 45 - Houston 31 -25
Southern Miss 14 - Marshall 21 0.671 Southern Miss 26 - Marshall 24 -9
Tennessee 35 - Charlotte 13 0.929 Tennessee 14 - Charlotte 3 11
Texas 31 - West Virginia 34 0.559 Texas 41 - West Virginia 42 -2
Texas Christian 28 - Kansas State 21 0.686 Texas Christian 14 - Kansas State 13 6
Texas Tech 41 - Oklahoma 49 0.73 Texas Tech 46 - Oklahoma 51 -3
Toledo 42 - Ball State 24 0.841 Toledo 45 - Ball State 13 -14
Troy 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 0.69 Troy 26 - Louisiana Lafayette 16 -3
Tulsa 27 - Connecticut 13 0.826 Tulsa 49 - Connecticut 19 -16
Virginia 31 - Pittsburgh 24 0.643 Virginia 13 - Pittsburgh 23 17
Virginia Tech 24 - Boston College 31 0.626 Virginia Tech 21 - Boston College 31 3
Wake Forest 38 - Syracuse 45 0.656 Wake Forest 24 - Syracuse 41 10
Washington 24 - Stanford 20 0.681 Washington 27 - Stanford 23 0
Washington State 35 - California 21 0.77 Washington State 19 - California 13 8
Western Michigan 31 - Ohio 34 0.524 Western Michigan 14 - Ohio 59 42
Wisconsin 38 - Rutgers 10 0.92 Wisconsin 31 - Rutgers 17 14
Wyoming 27 - San Jose State 13 0.81 Wyoming 24 - San Jose State 9 -1


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 46 = 75.4%
Expected Number Correct: 43.851 = 71.8%
Average Error: 12.96
Average Signed Error: 1.19

WEEK 11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - New Mexico 20 0.809 Air Force 42 - New Mexico 24 -4
Alabama 42 - Miss State 21 0.887 Alabama 24 - Miss State 0 -3
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Southern Miss 6 0.892 Alabama Birmingham 26 - Southern Miss 23 15
Arizona State 35 - UCLA 20 0.773 Arizona State 31 - UCLA 28 12
Arkansas 17 - Louisiana State 38 0.863 Arkansas 17 - Louisiana State 24 -14
Army 48 - FCS Team 7 Army 31 - FCS Team 13
Boise State 24 - Fresno State 28 0.676 Boise State 24 - Fresno State 17 -11
Boston College 21 - Clemson 41 0.929 Boston College 7 - Clemson 27 0
Buffalo 41 - Kent State 14 0.942 Buffalo 48 - Kent State 14 -7
Central Florida 48 - Navy 17 0.98 Central Florida 35 - Navy 24 20
Central Michigan 31 - Bowling Green 20 0.795 Central Michigan 13 - Bowling Green 24 22
Cincinnati 38 - South Florida 13 0.972 Cincinnati 35 - South Florida 23 13
Coastal Carolina 23 - Arkansas State 24 0.511 Coastal Carolina 16 - Arkansas State 44 27
Colorado 28 - Washington State 35 0.712 Colorado 7 - Washington State 31 17
Connecticut 17 - Southern Methodist 38 0.937 Connecticut 50 - Southern Methodist 62 -9
Duke 35 - North Carolina 20 0.792 Duke 42 - North Carolina 35 8
Eastern Michigan 27 - Akron 14 0.794 Eastern Michigan 27 - Akron 7 -7
Florida 41 - South Carolina 34 0.726 Florida 35 - South Carolina 31 3
Florida Atlantic 31 - Western Kentucky 10 0.859 Florida Atlantic 34 - Western Kentucky 15 2
Georgia 41 - Auburn 21 0.904 Georgia 27 - Auburn 10 3
Georgia Southern 20 - Troy 17 0.58 Georgia Southern 21 - Troy 35 17
Georgia Tech 31 - Miami FL 28 0.567 Georgia Tech 27 - Miami FL 21 -3
Houston 35 - Temple 41 0.587 Houston 49 - Temple 59 4
Indiana 27 - Maryland 31 0.603 Indiana 34 - Maryland 32 -6
Iowa 31 - Northwestern 21 0.741 Iowa 10 - Northwestern 14 14
Iowa State 38 - Baylor 20 0.869 Iowa State 28 - Baylor 14 4
Kansas State 28 - Kansas 20 0.714 Kansas State 21 - Kansas 17 4
Louisiana Lafayette 41 - Georgia State 27 0.78 Louisiana Lafayette 36 - Georgia State 22 0
Louisiana Tech 35 - Rice 10 0.983 Louisiana Tech 28 - Rice 13 10
Marshall 21 - Charlotte 10 0.76 Marshall 30 - Charlotte 13 -6
Massachusetts 20 - Brigham Young 35 0.847 Massachusetts 16 - Brigham Young 35 4
Memphis 38 - Tulsa 24 0.807 Memphis 47 - Tulsa 21 -12
Miami OH 28 - Ohio 31 0.6 Miami OH 30 - Ohio 28 -5
Michigan State 28 - Ohio State 24 0.587 Michigan State 6 - Ohio State 26 24
Minnesota 24 - Purdue 42 0.789 Minnesota 41 - Purdue 10 -49
Missouri 42 - Vanderbilt 27 0.888 Missouri 33 - Vanderbilt 28 10
NC State 45 - Wake Forest 27 0.948 NC State 23 - Wake Forest 27 22
Nebraska 48 - Illinois 34 0.776 Nebraska 54 - Illinois 35 -5
Nevada 38 - Colorado State 24 0.849 Nevada 49 - Colorado State 10 -25
Northern Illinois 28 - Toledo 27 0.533 Northern Illinois 38 - Toledo 15 -22
Notre Dame 38 - Florida State 17 0.907 Notre Dame 42 - Florida State 13 -8
Oklahoma 59 - Oklahoma State 35 0.902 Oklahoma 48 - Oklahoma State 47 23
Old Dominion 20 - North Texas 38 0.841 Old Dominion 34 - North Texas 31 -21
Penn State 35 - Wisconsin 27 0.736 Penn State 22 - Wisconsin 10 -4
Pittsburgh 35 - Virginia Tech 24 0.737 Pittsburgh 52 - Virginia Tech 22 -19
Rutgers 3 - Michigan 42 0.982 Rutgers 7 - Michigan 42 -4
San Diego State 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 0.888 San Diego State 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 24
South Alabama 24 - Louisiana Monroe 31 0.661 South Alabama 10 - Louisiana Monroe 38 21
Southern California 24 - California 17 0.67 Southern California 14 - California 15 8
Stanford 45 - Oregon State 21 0.93 Stanford 48 - Oregon State 17 -7
Syracuse 52 - Louisville 27 0.97 Syracuse 54 - Louisville 23 -6
Tennessee 17 - Kentucky 27 0.777 Tennessee 24 - Kentucky 7 -27
Texas AM 42 - Mississippi 31 0.766 Texas AM 38 - Mississippi 24 -3
Texas El Paso 13 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.798 Texas El Paso 32 - Middle Tennessee 48 5
Texas San Antonio 17 - Florida International 24 0.701 Texas San Antonio 7 - Florida International 45 31
Texas State 7 - Appalachian State 24 0.845 Texas State 7 - Appalachian State 38 14
Texas Tech 41 - Texas 35 0.661 Texas Tech 34 - Texas 41 13
Tulane 31 - East Carolina 13 0.841 Tulane 24 - East Carolina 18 12
Utah 38 - Oregon 24 0.758 Utah 32 - Oregon 25 7
Utah State 52 - San Jose State 17 0.992 Utah State 62 - San Jose State 24 -3
Virginia 38 - Liberty 17 0.851 Virginia 45 - Liberty 24 0
West Virginia 38 - Texas Christian 21 0.842 West Virginia 47 - Texas Christian 10 -20


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 47 = 77%
Expected Number Correct: 48.617 = 79.7%
Average Error: 11.85
Average Signed Error: 1.68

WEEK 12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 31 - Bowling Green 20 0.806 Akron 6 - Bowling Green 21 26
Alabama 69 - FCS Team 3 Alabama 50 - FCS Team 17
Appalachian State 35 - Georgia State 10 0.882 Appalachian State 45 - Georgia State 17 -3
Arkansas State 34 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.67 Arkansas State 31 - Louisiana Monroe 17 -4
Army 48 - FCS Team 6 Army 28 - FCS Team 14
Auburn 45 - Liberty 17 0.947 Auburn 53 - Liberty 0 -25
Ball State 27 - Western Michigan 31 0.573 Ball State 42 - Western Michigan 41 -5
Baylor 28 - Texas Christian 27 0.542 Baylor 9 - Texas Christian 16 8
Brigham Young 38 - New Mexico St 13 0.985 Brigham Young 45 - New Mexico St 10 -10
Central Florida 31 - Cincinnati 24 0.708 Central Florida 38 - Cincinnati 13 -18
Charlotte 17 - Florida International 21 0.56 Charlotte 35 - Florida International 42 3
Clemson 45 - Duke 14 0.951 Clemson 35 - Duke 6 2
Coastal Carolina 17 - Georgia Southern 24 0.632 Coastal Carolina 17 - Georgia Southern 41 17
Colorado 21 - Utah 34 0.747 Colorado 7 - Utah 30 10
Colorado State 24 - Utah State 52 0.978 Colorado State 24 - Utah State 29 -23
East Carolina 35 - Connecticut 21 0.841 East Carolina 55 - Connecticut 21 -20
Florida 76 - Idaho 20 0.991 Florida 63 - Idaho 10 3
Florida State 21 - Boston College 31 0.725 Florida State 22 - Boston College 21 -11
Fresno State 27 - San Diego State 6 0.928 Fresno State 23 - San Diego State 14 12
Georgia 62 - Massachusetts 13 0.992 Georgia 66 - Massachusetts 27 10
Georgia Tech 28 - Virginia 27 0.613 Georgia Tech 30 - Virginia 27 -2
Hawaii 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 0.701 Hawaii 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 0
Houston 38 - Tulane 31 0.683 Houston 48 - Tulane 17 -24
Illinois 27 - Iowa 45 0.825 Illinois 0 - Iowa 63 45
Kansas State 28 - Texas Tech 35 0.703 Kansas State 21 - Texas Tech 6 -22
Kent State 24 - Toledo 38 0.765 Kent State 34 - Toledo 56 8
Kentucky 28 - Middle Tennessee 13 0.842 Kentucky 34 - Middle Tennessee 23 4
Louisiana Lafayette 41 - South Alabama 17 0.969 Louisiana Lafayette 48 - South Alabama 38 14
Louisiana State 45 - Rice 0 0.992 Louisiana State 42 - Rice 10 13
Louisville 27 - NC State 45 0.928 Louisville 10 - NC State 52 24
Marshall 31 - Texas San Antonio 6 0.949 Marshall 23 - Texas San Antonio 0 2
Maryland 27 - Ohio State 35 0.702 Maryland 51 - Ohio State 52 -7
Michigan 45 - Indiana 17 0.982 Michigan 31 - Indiana 20 17
Minnesota 27 - Northwestern 28 0.548 Minnesota 14 - Northwestern 24 9
Miss State 34 - Arkansas 13 0.873 Miss State 52 - Arkansas 6 -25
Navy 24 - Tulsa 17 0.638 Navy 37 - Tulsa 29 -1
Nebraska 24 - Michigan State 31 0.615 Nebraska 9 - Michigan State 6 -10
New Mexico 20 - Boise State 38 0.845 New Mexico 14 - Boise State 45 13
North Carolina 45 - FCS Team 21 North Carolina 49 - FCS Team 26
North Texas 27 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.611 North Texas 41 - Florida Atlantic 38 3
Northern Illinois 24 - Miami OH 17 0.658 Northern Illinois 7 - Miami OH 13 13
Notre Dame 38 - Syracuse 31 0.724 Notre Dame 36 - Syracuse 3 -26
Ohio 32 - Buffalo 31 0.539 Ohio 52 - Buffalo 17 -34
Oklahoma 52 - Kansas 27 0.964 Oklahoma 55 - Kansas 40 10
Oklahoma State 35 - West Virginia 48 0.732 Oklahoma State 45 - West Virginia 41 -17
Old Dominion 42 - FCS Team 27 Old Dominion 77 - FCS Team 14
Oregon 32 - Arizona State 31 0.521 Oregon 31 - Arizona State 29 -1
Purdue 31 - Wisconsin 24 0.637 Purdue 44 - Wisconsin 47 10
Rutgers 14 - Penn State 38 0.876 Rutgers 7 - Penn State 20 -11
San Jose State 21 - Nevada 35 0.793 San Jose State 12 - Nevada 21 -5
South Carolina 59 - FCS Team 17 South Carolina 49 - FCS Team 9
Southern Methodist 40 - Memphis 41 0.534 Southern Methodist 18 - Memphis 28 9
Southern Miss 18 - Louisiana Tech 17 0.577 Southern Miss 21 - Louisiana Tech 20 0
Temple 42 - South Florida 21 0.91 Temple 27 - South Florida 17 11
Tennessee 31 - Missouri 35 0.663 Tennessee 17 - Missouri 50 29
Texas 28 - Iowa State 27 0.539 Texas 24 - Iowa State 10 -13
Texas AM 28 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.784 Texas AM 41 - Alabama Birmingham 20 -10
Troy 28 - Texas State 7 0.935 Troy 12 - Texas State 7 16
UCLA 27 - Southern California 28 0.54 UCLA 34 - Southern California 27 -8
Vanderbilt 42 - Mississippi 35 0.687 Vanderbilt 36 - Mississippi 29 0
Virginia Tech 21 - Miami FL 27 0.641 Virginia Tech 14 - Miami FL 38 18
Wake Forest 31 - Pittsburgh 38 0.689 Wake Forest 13 - Pittsburgh 34 14
Washington 45 - Oregon State 17 0.966 Washington 42 - Oregon State 23 9
Washington State 35 - Arizona 21 0.788 Washington State 69 - Arizona 28 -27
Western Kentucky 20 - Texas El Paso 17 0.581 Western Kentucky 40 - Texas El Paso 16 -21
Wyoming 17 - Air Force 20 0.578 Wyoming 35 - Air Force 27 -11


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 50 = 81.9%
Expected Number Correct: 46.098 = 75.5%
Average Error: 12.72
Average Signed Error: -0.2

WEEK 13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - Colorado State 21 0.8 Air Force 27 - Colorado State 19 9
Alabama 42 - Auburn 17 0.975 Alabama 52 - Auburn 21 -6
Appalachian State 21 - Troy 10 0.763 Appalachian State 21 - Troy 10 0
Arizona 31 - Arizona State 34 0.554 Arizona 40 - Arizona State 41 -2
Baylor 28 - Texas Tech 38 0.715 Baylor 35 - Texas Tech 24 -21
Boise State 35 - Utah State 34 0.534 Boise State 33 - Utah State 24 -8
Boston College 31 - Syracuse 28 0.566 Boston College 21 - Syracuse 42 24
Bowling Green 21 - Buffalo 35 0.79 Bowling Green 14 - Buffalo 44 16
California 21 - Colorado 14 0.68 California 33 - Colorado 21 -5
Cincinnati 31 - East Carolina 10 0.912 Cincinnati 56 - East Carolina 6 -29
Clemson 45 - South Carolina 24 0.943 Clemson 56 - South Carolina 35 0
Connecticut 17 - Temple 49 0.984 Connecticut 7 - Temple 57 18
Duke 38 - Wake Forest 24 0.781 Duke 7 - Wake Forest 59 66
Florida Atlantic 28 - Charlotte 17 0.755 Florida Atlantic 24 - Charlotte 27 14
Florida International 23 - Marshall 24 0.501 Florida International 25 - Marshall 28 2
Florida State 24 - Florida 38 0.819 Florida State 14 - Florida 41 13
Fresno State 38 - San Jose State 6 0.991 Fresno State 31 - San Jose State 13 14
Georgia 48 - Georgia Tech 24 0.949 Georgia 45 - Georgia Tech 21 0
Georgia State 20 - Georgia Southern 31 0.727 Georgia State 14 - Georgia Southern 35 10
Indiana 34 - Purdue 35 0.556 Indiana 21 - Purdue 28 6
Iowa 38 - Nebraska 21 0.809 Iowa 31 - Nebraska 28 14
Iowa State 24 - Kansas State 13 0.749 Iowa State 42 - Kansas State 38 7
Kansas 24 - Texas 38 0.792 Kansas 17 - Texas 24 -7
Kent State 17 - Eastern Michigan 31 0.813 Kent State 20 - Eastern Michigan 28 -6
Liberty 42 - New Mexico St 31 0.737 Liberty 28 - New Mexico St 21 4
Louisiana Monroe 30 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.513 Louisiana Monroe 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 2
Louisiana Tech 24 - Western Kentucky 10 0.81 Louisiana Tech 15 - Western Kentucky 30 29
Louisville 14 - Kentucky 42 0.957 Louisville 10 - Kentucky 56 18
Memphis 45 - Houston 42 0.548 Memphis 52 - Houston 31 -18
Miami FL 25 - Pittsburgh 24 0.504 Miami FL 24 - Pittsburgh 3 -20
Miami OH 34 - Ball State 17 0.865 Miami OH 42 - Ball State 21 -4
Michigan State 27 - Rutgers 3 0.885 Michigan State 14 - Rutgers 10 20
Middle Tennessee 22 - Alabama Birmingham 21 0.516 Middle Tennessee 27 - Alabama Birmingham 3 -23
Mississippi 24 - Miss State 38 0.76 Mississippi 3 - Miss State 35 18
Missouri 49 - Arkansas 24 0.946 Missouri 38 - Arkansas 0 -13
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Nevada 35 0.764 Nevada Las Vegas 34 - Nevada 29 -16
New Mexico 17 - Wyoming 24 0.744 New Mexico 3 - Wyoming 31 21
North Carolina 27 - NC State 38 0.761 North Carolina 28 - NC State 34 -5
Northwestern 45 - Illinois 20 0.86 Northwestern 24 - Illinois 16 17
Ohio 38 - Akron 10 0.893 Ohio 49 - Akron 28 7
Ohio State 31 - Michigan 38 0.653 Ohio State 62 - Michigan 39 -30
Oregon State 31 - Oregon 45 0.779 Oregon State 15 - Oregon 55 26
Penn State 35 - Maryland 24 0.744 Penn State 38 - Maryland 3 -24
Rice 27 - Old Dominion 31 0.671 Rice 27 - Old Dominion 13 -18
San Diego State 31 - Hawaii 17 0.785 San Diego State 30 - Hawaii 31 15
South Alabama 24 - Coastal Carolina 27 0.607 South Alabama 31 - Coastal Carolina 28 -6
South Florida 20 - Central Florida 42 0.911 South Florida 10 - Central Florida 38 6
Southern California 20 - Notre Dame 35 0.878 Southern California 17 - Notre Dame 24 -8
Texas AM 27 - Louisiana State 24 0.548 Texas AM 74 - Louisiana State 72 1
Texas Christian 31 - Oklahoma State 34 0.581 Texas Christian 31 - Oklahoma State 24 -10
Texas El Paso 13 - Southern Miss 24 0.773 Texas El Paso 7 - Southern Miss 39 21
Texas San Antonio 10 - North Texas 31 0.849 Texas San Antonio 21 - North Texas 24 -18
Texas State 14 - Arkansas State 24 0.788 Texas State 7 - Arkansas State 33 16
Toledo 35 - Central Michigan 17 0.858 Toledo 51 - Central Michigan 13 -20
Tulane 24 - Navy 20 0.651 Tulane 29 - Navy 28 3
Tulsa 24 - Southern Methodist 28 0.624 Tulsa 27 - Southern Methodist 24 -7
UCLA 24 - Stanford 31 0.704 UCLA 42 - Stanford 49 0
Utah 27 - Brigham Young 13 0.819 Utah 35 - Brigham Young 27 6
Vanderbilt 31 - Tennessee 27 0.682 Vanderbilt 38 - Tennessee 13 -21
Virginia Tech 21 - Virginia 28 0.726 Virginia Tech 34 - Virginia 31 -10
Washington State 31 - Washington 24 0.747 Washington State 15 - Washington 28 20
West Virginia 49 - Oklahoma 48 0.555 West Virginia 56 - Oklahoma 59 4
Western Michigan 20 - Northern Illinois 27 0.69 Western Michigan 28 - Northern Illinois 21 -14
Wisconsin 35 - Minnesota 27 0.681 Wisconsin 15 - Minnesota 37 30


Number of FBS Games: 64
Number Correct: 47 = 73.4%
Expected Number Correct: 47.825 = 74.7%
Average Error: 13.53
Average Signed Error: 2

WEEK 14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 34 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 0.862 Appalachian State 30 - Louisiana Lafayette 19 6
Boise State 24 - Fresno State 21 0.529 Boise State 16 - Fresno State 19 6
Buffalo 24 - Northern Illinois 17 0.691 Buffalo 29 - Northern Illinois 30 8
California 23 - Stanford 24 0.565 California 13 - Stanford 23 9
Central Florida 42 - Memphis 28 0.815 Central Florida 56 - Memphis 41 -1
Georgia 31 - Alabama 42 0.776 Georgia 28 - Alabama 35 -4
Iowa State 48 - FCS Team 10 Iowa State 27 - FCS Team 24
Liberty 42 - FCS Team 28 Liberty 52 - FCS Team 17
Middle Tennessee 24 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.666 Middle Tennessee 25 - Alabama Birmingham 27 9
NC State 41 - East Carolina 17 0.929 NC State 58 - East Carolina 3 -31
Ohio State 38 - Northwestern 24 0.759 Ohio State 45 - Northwestern 24 -7
Oklahoma 48 - Texas 41 0.719 Oklahoma 39 - Texas 27 -5
Pittsburgh 20 - Clemson 41 0.865 Pittsburgh 10 - Clemson 42 11
South Carolina 45 - Akron 14 0.99 South Carolina 28 - Akron 3 6
Virginia Tech 21 - Marshall 27 0.65 Virginia Tech 41 - Marshall 20 -27
Washington 20 - Utah 21 0.529 Washington 10 - Utah 3 -8


Number of FBS Games: 14
Number Correct: 9 = 64.2%
Expected Number Correct: 10.345 = 73.8%
Average Error: 9.85
Average Signed Error: -2

WEEK 15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 31 - Navy 14 0.814 Army 17 - Navy 10 10

WEEK 16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 59 - Oklahoma 38 0.929 Alabama 45 - Oklahoma 34 10
Appalachian State 21 - Middle Tennessee 17 0.632 Appalachian State 45 - Middle Tennessee 13 -28
Arizona State 20 - Fresno State 28 0.754 Arizona State 20 - Fresno State 31 3
Auburn 31 - Purdue 27 0.631 Auburn 63 - Purdue 14 -45
Brigham Young 31 - Western Michigan 21 0.757 Brigham Young 49 - Western Michigan 18 -21
Central Florida 34 - Louisiana State 35 0.525 Central Florida 32 - Louisiana State 40 7
Duke 24 - Temple 34 0.671 Duke 56 - Temple 27 -39
Eastern Michigan 17 - Georgia Southern 20 0.547 Eastern Michigan 21 - Georgia Southern 23 -1
Georgia 41 - Texas 24 0.895 Georgia 21 - Texas 28 24
Georgia Tech 35 - Minnesota 34 0.535 Georgia Tech 10 - Minnesota 34 25
Hawaii 28 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.649 Hawaii 14 - Louisiana Tech 31 21
Houston 31 - Army 35 0.617 Houston 14 - Army 70 52
Iowa 17 - Miss State 24 0.677 Iowa 27 - Miss State 22 -12
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Tulane 27 0.525 Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Tulane 41 18
Michigan 34 - Florida 31 0.566 Michigan 15 - Florida 41 29
Nevada 24 - Arkansas State 27 0.517 Nevada 16 - Arkansas State 13 -6
Northern Illinois 14 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.543 Northern Illinois 13 - Alabama Birmingham 37 21
Notre Dame 24 - Clemson 35 0.774 Notre Dame 3 - Clemson 30 16
Ohio 31 - San Diego State 20 0.734 Ohio 27 - San Diego State 0 -16
Ohio State 34 - Washington 28 0.633 Ohio State 28 - Washington 23 1
Oklahoma State 31 - Missouri 48 0.813 Oklahoma State 38 - Missouri 33 -22
Oregon 22 - Michigan State 21 0.51 Oregon 7 - Michigan State 6 0
Penn State 21 - Kentucky 24 0.525 Penn State 24 - Kentucky 27 0
Pittsburgh 28 - Stanford 31 0.578 Pittsburgh 13 - Stanford 14 -2
South Florida 20 - Marshall 24 0.605 South Florida 20 - Marshall 38 14
Syracuse 38 - West Virginia 45 0.661 Syracuse 34 - West Virginia 18 -23
Texas AM 41 - NC State 34 0.696 Texas AM 52 - NC State 13 -32
Texas Christian 17 - California 14 0.522 Texas Christian 10 - California 7 0
Toledo 35 - Florida International 31 0.561 Toledo 32 - Florida International 35 7
Troy 20 - Buffalo 21 0.511 Troy 42 - Buffalo 32 -11
Utah 24 - Northwestern 17 0.664 Utah 20 - Northwestern 31 18
Utah State 41 - North Texas 24 0.783 Utah State 52 - North Texas 13 -22
Vanderbilt 35 - Baylor 24 0.783 Vanderbilt 38 - Baylor 45 18
Virginia 24 - South Carolina 34 0.799 Virginia 28 - South Carolina 0 -38
Virginia Tech 20 - Cincinnati 31 0.752 Virginia Tech 31 - Cincinnati 35 -7
Wake Forest 38 - Memphis 41 0.542 Wake Forest 37 - Memphis 34 -6
Washington State 31 - Iowa State 27 0.595 Washington State 28 - Iowa State 26 2
Wisconsin 21 - Miami FL 24 0.583 Wisconsin 35 - Miami FL 3 -35

WEEK 17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 41 - Clemson 34 0.718 Alabama 16 - Clemson 44 35


Number of FBS Games: 40
Number Correct: 22 = 55%
Expected Number Correct: 26.126 = 65.3%
Average Error: 17.42
Average Signed Error: -0.88