College Football Predictions

WEEK 1

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - FCS Team 10 30.2 Air Force 42 - FCS Team 7
Alabama 49 - Middle Tennessee 13 38.2 0.987 Alabama 56 - Middle Tennessee 7 -13
Alabama Birmingham 38 - FCS Team 13 23.8 Alabama Birmingham 35 - FCS Team 6
Appalachian State 45 - FCS Team 14 29.1 Appalachian State 45 - FCS Team 24
Arizona 42 - FCS Team 20 23 Arizona 38 - FCS Team 3
Arizona State 42 - FCS Team 14 27.6 Arizona State 24 - FCS Team 21
Arkansas 48 - FCS Team 17 30.6 Arkansas 56 - FCS Team 13
Auburn 45 - Massachusetts 7 37.6 0.992 Auburn 59 - Massachusetts 14 -7
Baylor 38 - Texas State 10 25.5 0.941 Baylor 31 - Texas State 42 39
Boston College 28 - Northern Illinois 21 6.7 0.674 Boston College 24 - Northern Illinois 27 10
Brigham Young 24 - Sam Houston State 3 21.9 0.843 Brigham Young 14 - Sam Houston State 0 7
Central Florida 38 - Kent State 24 14.7 0.791 Central Florida 56 - Kent State 6 -36
Charlotte 34 - FCS Team 24 10.9 Charlotte 24 - FCS Team 3
Cincinnati 41 - FCS Team 7 32.8 Cincinnati 66 - FCS Team 13
Colorado State 17 - Washington State 28 11.8 0.775 Colorado State 24 - Washington State 50 15
Connecticut 14 - NC State 31 15.2 0.827 Connecticut 14 - NC State 24 -7
Duke 20 - Clemson 35 16.3 0.814 Duke 28 - Clemson 7 -36
Eastern Michigan 38 - FCS Team 17 20.6 Eastern Michigan 33 - FCS Team 23
Florida Atlantic 35 - FCS Team 14 19.9 Florida Atlantic 42 - FCS Team 20
Florida International 31 - FCS Team 24 5.8 Florida International 14 - FCS Team 12
Florida State 28 - Louisiana State 35 8.1 0.71 Florida State 45 - Louisiana State 24 -28
Georgia 56 - FCS Team 3 54.1 Georgia 48 - FCS Team 7
Georgia Southern 38 - FCS Team 17 20 Georgia Southern 34 - FCS Team 0
Georgia State 41 - FCS Team 20 22.6 Georgia State 42 - FCS Team 35
Georgia Tech 21 - Louisville 31 11.3 0.74 Georgia Tech 34 - Louisville 39 -5
Hawaii 26 - Stanford 27 1 0.527 Hawaii 24 - Stanford 37 12
Houston 35 - Texas San Antonio 27 8.1 0.709 Houston 17 - Texas San Antonio 14 5
Illinois 28 - Toledo 20 10.2 0.733 Illinois 30 - Toledo 28 6
Indiana 24 - Ohio State 49 24.1 0.916 Indiana 3 - Ohio State 23 -5
Iowa 31 - Utah State 14 16 0.818 Iowa 24 - Utah State 14 7
Iowa State 42 - FCS Team 10 32.7 Iowa State 30 - FCS Team 9
Jacksonville State 11 - Texas El Paso 10 1.2 0.524 Jacksonville State 17 - Texas El Paso 14 -2
Jacksonville State 20 - FCS Team 7 10.8 Jacksonville State 49 - FCS Team 3
James Madison 35 - FCS Team 10 23.6 James Madison 38 - FCS Team 3
Kansas 48 - FCS Team 21 25.5 Kansas 48 - FCS Team 17
Kansas State 48 - FCS Team 10 37.3 Kansas State 45 - FCS Team 0
Kentucky 31 - Ball State 13 18.2 0.863 Kentucky 44 - Ball State 14 -12
Liberty 31 - Bowling Green 14 17.2 0.791 Liberty 34 - Bowling Green 24 7
Louisiana Lafayette 38 - FCS Team 13 27 Louisiana Lafayette 38 - FCS Team 13
Louisiana Monroe 20 - Army 28 8 0.705 Louisiana Monroe 17 - Army 13 -12
Louisiana Tech 31 - Florida International 20 11.9 0.742 Louisiana Tech 22 - Florida International 17 6
Marshall 34 - FCS Team 10 23.5 Marshall 21 - FCS Team 17
Maryland 45 - FCS Team 14 29.3 Maryland 38 - FCS Team 6
Memphis 45 - FCS Team 17 28.7 Memphis 56 - FCS Team 14
Miami FL 24 - Miami OH 17 8.3 0.733 Miami FL 38 - Miami OH 3 -28
Michigan 45 - East Carolina 20 24.5 0.909 Michigan 30 - East Carolina 3 -2
Michigan State 31 - Central Michigan 17 15.1 0.805 Michigan State 31 - Central Michigan 7 -10
Minnesota 28 - Nebraska 20 8.7 0.731 Minnesota 13 - Nebraska 10 5
Miss State 48 - FCS Team 10 36.4 Miss State 48 - FCS Team 7
Mississippi 52 - FCS Team 14 36.3 Mississippi 73 - FCS Team 7
Missouri 45 - FCS Team 13 31 Missouri 35 - FCS Team 10
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - FCS Team 20 15.8 Nevada Las Vegas 44 - FCS Team 14
New Mexico St 31 - Massachusetts 17 13.5 0.784 New Mexico St 30 - Massachusetts 41 25
New Mexico St 34 - FCS Team 21 11.7 New Mexico St 58 - FCS Team 21
North Texas 23 - California 24 0 0.502 North Texas 21 - California 58 36
Notre Dame 31 - Navy 17 16.8 0.841 Notre Dame 42 - Navy 3 -25
Notre Dame 49 - FCS Team 10 40.2 Notre Dame 56 - FCS Team 3
Ohio 38 - FCS Team 17 22.6 Ohio 27 - FCS Team 10
Oklahoma 49 - Arkansas State 20 28.8 0.976 Oklahoma 73 - Arkansas State 0 -44
Oklahoma State 48 - FCS Team 13 34.4 Oklahoma State 27 - FCS Team 13
Oregon 49 - FCS Team 13 36.9 Oregon 81 - FCS Team 7
Penn State 35 - West Virginia 20 15.5 0.82 Penn State 38 - West Virginia 15 -8
Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 13 32.3 Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 7
Purdue 31 - Fresno State 27 4.4 0.615 Purdue 35 - Fresno State 39 8
Rutgers 20 - Northwestern 21 0.9 0.524 Rutgers 24 - Northwestern 7 -18
San Diego State 20 - Ohio 17 3.6 0.607 San Diego State 20 - Ohio 13 -4
San Diego State 34 - FCS Team 10 22.9 San Diego State 36 - FCS Team 28
San Jose State 21 - Oregon State 31 8.8 0.738 San Jose State 17 - Oregon State 42 15
South Carolina 35 - North Carolina 34 1.3 0.527 South Carolina 17 - North Carolina 31 15
Southern California 41 - San Jose State 21 18 0.878 Southern California 56 - San Jose State 28 -8
Southern California 41 - Nevada 21 19.8 0.892 Southern California 66 - Nevada 14 -32
Southern Methodist 45 - Louisiana Tech 24 18.8 0.858 Southern Methodist 38 - Louisiana Tech 14 -3
Southern Miss 31 - FCS Team 17 15.7 Southern Miss 40 - FCS Team 14
Syracuse 41 - FCS Team 14 25.7 Syracuse 65 - FCS Team 0
Temple 28 - Akron 20 9.8 0.719 Temple 24 - Akron 21 5
Tennessee 42 - Virginia 21 20.1 0.855 Tennessee 49 - Virginia 13 -15
Texas 42 - Rice 10 32 0.951 Texas 37 - Rice 10 5
Texas AM 35 - New Mexico 6 31.3 0.986 Texas AM 52 - New Mexico 10 -13
Texas Christian 42 - Colorado 21 22 0.879 Texas Christian 42 - Colorado 45 24
Texas El Paso 31 - FCS Team 20 13 Texas El Paso 28 - FCS Team 14
Troy 35 - FCS Team 13 23.2 Troy 48 - FCS Team 30
Tulane 34 - South Alabama 17 14.6 0.821 Tulane 37 - South Alabama 17 -3
Tulsa 41 - FCS Team 17 23.1 Tulsa 42 - FCS Team 7
UCLA 42 - Coastal Carolina 27 14.6 0.797 UCLA 27 - Coastal Carolina 3 -9
Utah 34 - Florida 28 6.4 0.659 Utah 24 - Florida 11 -7
Vanderbilt 34 - Hawaii 24 7.9 0.697 Vanderbilt 35 - Hawaii 28 3
Vanderbilt 41 - FCS Team 20 21.7 Vanderbilt 47 - FCS Team 13
Virginia Tech 27 - Old Dominion 14 11.2 0.765 Virginia Tech 30 - Old Dominion 17 0
Wake Forest 52 - FCS Team 17 34.5 Wake Forest 37 - FCS Team 17
Washington 28 - Boise State 24 5.7 0.664 Washington 56 - Boise State 19 -33
Western Kentucky 38 - South Florida 24 14.5 0.781 Western Kentucky 41 - South Florida 24 -3
Western Michigan 35 - FCS Team 17 18.5 Western Michigan 35 - FCS Team 17
Wisconsin 31 - Buffalo 14 17.9 0.845 Wisconsin 38 - Buffalo 17 -4
Wyoming 21 - Texas Tech 31 10.6 0.738 Wyoming 35 - Texas Tech 33 -12


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 41 = 78.8%
Expected Number Correct: 40.319 = 77.5%
Average Error: 13.44
Average Signed Error: -3.64

WEEK 2

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 27 - FCS Team 21 5.1 Akron 24 - FCS Team 21
Alabama 45 - Texas 27 19.4 0.861 Alabama 24 - Texas 34 28
Arizona State 27 - Oklahoma State 28 1 0.527 Arizona State 15 - Oklahoma State 27 11
Arkansas 45 - Kent State 24 20.1 0.889 Arkansas 28 - Kent State 6 -1
Arkansas State 24 - Memphis 38 14.3 0.792 Arkansas State 3 - Memphis 37 20
Army 35 - FCS Team 10 23.9 Army 57 - FCS Team 0
Baylor 24 - Utah 31 7 0.683 Baylor 13 - Utah 20 0
Boise State 28 - Central Florida 31 0.6 0.52 Boise State 16 - Central Florida 18 -1
Boston College 35 - FCS Team 14 20.2 Boston College 31 - FCS Team 28
Bowling Green 28 - FCS Team 21 6.1 Bowling Green 38 - FCS Team 15
Brigham Young 42 - FCS Team 10 30.3 Brigham Young 41 - FCS Team 16
Buffalo 38 - FCS Team 17 19.4 Buffalo 37 - FCS Team 40
California 24 - Auburn 27 4.5 0.629 California 10 - Auburn 14 1
Central Michigan 34 - FCS Team 17 17.7 Central Michigan 45 - FCS Team 42
Clemson 48 - FCS Team 6 42.2 Clemson 66 - FCS Team 17
Coastal Carolina 20 - Jacksonville State 7 12.3 0.793 Coastal Carolina 30 - Jacksonville State 16 -1
Colorado 27 - Nebraska 28 2.3 0.557 Colorado 36 - Nebraska 14 -23
Duke 41 - FCS Team 17 25.1 Duke 42 - FCS Team 7
East Carolina 24 - Marshall 21 2.9 0.577 East Carolina 13 - Marshall 31 21
Florida 48 - FCS Team 10 36.9 Florida 49 - FCS Team 7
Florida Atlantic 24 - Ohio 20 2.8 0.568 Florida Atlantic 10 - Ohio 17 11
Florida International 21 - North Texas 31 8.8 0.7 Florida International 46 - North Texas 39 -17
Florida State 38 - Southern Miss 14 22.7 0.927 Florida State 66 - Southern Miss 13 -29
Fresno State 42 - FCS Team 13 30.2 Fresno State 34 - FCS Team 31
Georgia 45 - Ball State 7 38.4 0.991 Georgia 45 - Ball State 3 -4
Georgia Southern 23 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.6 0.52 Georgia Southern 49 - Alabama Birmingham 35 -15
Georgia State 35 - Connecticut 17 17.1 0.826 Georgia State 35 - Connecticut 14 -3
Georgia Tech 41 - FCS Team 17 23.6 Georgia Tech 48 - FCS Team 13
Hawaii 38 - FCS Team 20 19.2 Hawaii 31 - FCS Team 20
Indiana 38 - FCS Team 14 25.1 Indiana 41 - FCS Team 7
Iowa State 21 - Iowa 20 2.3 0.552 Iowa State 13 - Iowa 20 8
Kansas 30 - Illinois 31 0.1 0.503 Kansas 34 - Illinois 23 -12
Kansas State 31 - Troy 14 16.7 0.856 Kansas State 42 - Troy 13 -12
Kentucky 42 - FCS Team 10 33.7 Kentucky 28 - FCS Team 17
Liberty 38 - New Mexico St 17 18.7 0.835 Liberty 33 - New Mexico St 17 5
Louisiana Monroe 35 - FCS Team 20 15.4 Louisiana Monroe 24 - FCS Team 14
Louisiana State 52 - FCS Team 13 39.9 Louisiana State 72 - FCS Team 10
Louisiana Tech 31 - FCS Team 20 12.7 Louisiana Tech 51 - FCS Team 21
Louisville 48 - FCS Team 17 31.4 Louisville 56 - FCS Team 0
Maryland 41 - Charlotte 20 21 0.839 Maryland 38 - Charlotte 20 3
Massachusetts 17 - Miami OH 28 11.6 0.787 Massachusetts 28 - Miami OH 41 2
Miami FL 24 - Texas AM 28 5.7 0.664 Miami FL 48 - Texas AM 33 -19
Michigan 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 13 32.1 0.97 Michigan 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 7 4
Michigan State 41 - FCS Team 10 30.3 Michigan State 45 - FCS Team 14
Minnesota 34 - Eastern Michigan 17 17.1 0.827 Minnesota 25 - Eastern Michigan 6 -2
Miss State 35 - Arizona 21 13.7 0.79 Miss State 31 - Arizona 24 7
Missouri 34 - Middle Tennessee 20 14.3 0.799 Missouri 23 - Middle Tennessee 19 10
Navy 35 - FCS Team 14 21.1 Navy 24 - FCS Team 0
NC State 20 - Notre Dame 31 10.9 0.763 NC State 24 - Notre Dame 45 10
Nevada 38 - FCS Team 17 19.4 Nevada 6 - FCS Team 33
New Mexico 28 - FCS Team 20 7.9 New Mexico 56 - FCS Team 10
North Carolina 35 - Appalachian State 28 7.1 0.68 North Carolina 40 - Appalachian State 34 1
Northern Illinois 35 - FCS Team 20 17.5 Northern Illinois 11 - FCS Team 14
Northwestern 24 - Texas El Paso 13 11.5 0.771 Northwestern 38 - Texas El Paso 7 -20
Ohio State 59 - FCS Team 7 51 Ohio State 35 - FCS Team 7
Oklahoma 49 - Southern Methodist 28 19.8 0.873 Oklahoma 28 - Southern Methodist 11 4
Old Dominion 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 12 0.774 Old Dominion 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 -20
Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 13 32.9 Oregon State 55 - FCS Team 7
Penn State 48 - FCS Team 7 40.8 Penn State 63 - FCS Team 7
Pittsburgh 27 - Cincinnati 24 3.3 0.593 Pittsburgh 21 - Cincinnati 27 9
Rice 17 - Houston 31 14.1 0.795 Rice 43 - Houston 41 -16
Rutgers 27 - Temple 17 9.7 0.739 Rutgers 36 - Temple 7 -19
Sam Houston State 0 - Air Force 17 17.3 0.916 Sam Houston State 3 - Air Force 13 -7
San Diego State 20 - UCLA 27 7.8 0.724 San Diego State 10 - UCLA 35 18
San Jose State 38 - FCS Team 17 20.6 San Jose State 59 - FCS Team 3
South Alabama 34 - FCS Team 17 16.9 South Alabama 35 - FCS Team 17
South Carolina 42 - FCS Team 14 28.9 South Carolina 47 - FCS Team 21
South Florida 38 - FCS Team 21 16.1 South Florida 38 - FCS Team 24
Southern California 41 - Stanford 24 15.6 0.862 Southern California 56 - Stanford 10 -29
Syracuse 31 - Western Michigan 21 9.7 0.725 Syracuse 48 - Western Michigan 7 -31
Tennessee 55 - FCS Team 13 41.3 Tennessee 30 - FCS Team 13
Texas Christian 49 - FCS Team 17 32.1 Texas Christian 41 - FCS Team 6
Texas San Antonio 31 - Texas State 20 10.6 0.754 Texas San Antonio 20 - Texas State 13 4
Texas Tech 31 - Oregon 38 4.5 0.61 Texas Tech 30 - Oregon 38 1
Toledo 41 - FCS Team 17 24 Toledo 71 - FCS Team 3
Tulane 30 - Mississippi 31 2.5 0.564 Tulane 20 - Mississippi 37 16
Utah State 41 - FCS Team 14 24.3 Utah State 78 - FCS Team 28
Virginia 27 - James Madison 17 9.7 0.712 Virginia 35 - James Madison 36 11
Virginia Tech 27 - Purdue 31 4.6 0.62 Virginia Tech 17 - Purdue 24 3
Wake Forest 45 - Vanderbilt 24 18.7 0.841 Wake Forest 36 - Vanderbilt 20 5
Washington 35 - Tulsa 20 16.2 0.865 Washington 43 - Tulsa 10 -18
Washington State 28 - Wisconsin 27 0.4 0.514 Washington State 31 - Wisconsin 22 -8
West Virginia 42 - FCS Team 13 29.3 West Virginia 56 - FCS Team 17
Western Kentucky 42 - FCS Team 14 27.5 Western Kentucky 52 - FCS Team 22
Wyoming 35 - FCS Team 13 22.6 Wyoming 31 - FCS Team 17


Number of FBS Games: 47
Number Correct: 34 = 72.3%
Expected Number Correct: 34.477 = 73.3%
Average Error: 11.06
Average Signed Error: -2

WEEK 3

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Utah State 17 9.9 0.766 Air Force 39 - Utah State 21 -8
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 0.6 0.521 Alabama Birmingham 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 41 17
Appalachian State 35 - East Carolina 21 14 0.817 Appalachian State 43 - East Carolina 28 -1
Arizona 35 - Texas El Paso 14 21.3 0.922 Arizona 31 - Texas El Paso 10 0
Arizona State 29 - Fresno State 28 0.3 0.514 Arizona State 0 - Fresno State 29 30
Arkansas 28 - Brigham Young 24 4.4 0.646 Arkansas 31 - Brigham Young 38 11
Arkansas State 31 - FCS Team 24 9 Arkansas State 31 - FCS Team 7
Auburn 45 - FCS Team 7 37.4 Auburn 45 - FCS Team 13
Ball State 35 - FCS Team 17 18.2 Ball State 45 - FCS Team 7
Baylor 45 - FCS Team 13 34.2 Baylor 30 - FCS Team 7
Boise State 42 - FCS Team 10 32.1 Boise State 42 - FCS Team 18
Boston College 20 - Florida State 38 16.6 0.85 Boston College 29 - Florida State 31 -16
Buffalo 25 - Liberty 24 1 0.525 Buffalo 27 - Liberty 55 29
California 38 - FCS Team 10 29.5 California 31 - FCS Team 17
Central Florida 48 - FCS Team 13 35 Central Florida 48 - FCS Team 14
Charlotte 24 - Georgia State 34 9.9 0.733 Charlotte 25 - Georgia State 41 6
Cincinnati 31 - Miami OH 10 22 0.962 Cincinnati 24 - Miami OH 31 28
Clemson 34 - Florida Atlantic 6 27.7 0.939 Clemson 48 - Florida Atlantic 14 -6
Coastal Carolina 38 - FCS Team 14 23.1 Coastal Carolina 66 - FCS Team 7
Colorado 38 - Colorado State 21 14.6 0.797 Colorado 43 - Colorado State 35 9
Connecticut 27 - Florida International 21 4.8 0.63 Connecticut 17 - Florida International 24 13
Duke 28 - Northwestern 17 9.9 0.718 Duke 38 - Northwestern 14 -13
Eastern Michigan 38 - Massachusetts 17 20.7 0.928 Eastern Michigan 19 - Massachusetts 17 19
Florida 31 - Tennessee 35 4 0.597 Florida 29 - Tennessee 16 -17
Georgia 42 - South Carolina 14 27.1 0.924 Georgia 24 - South Carolina 14 18
Houston 34 - Texas Christian 38 4.1 0.603 Houston 13 - Texas Christian 36 19
Illinois 20 - Penn State 34 13.2 0.785 Illinois 13 - Penn State 30 3
Iowa 34 - Western Michigan 10 23.1 0.921 Iowa 41 - Western Michigan 10 -7
Kent State 38 - FCS Team 21 14.9 Kent State 38 - FCS Team 10
Kentucky 38 - Akron 6 32.8 0.977 Kentucky 35 - Akron 3 0
Louisiana Tech 28 - North Texas 27 1.2 0.528 Louisiana Tech 37 - North Texas 40 4
Louisville 31 - Indiana 24 6.9 0.703 Louisville 21 - Indiana 14 0
Maryland 34 - Virginia 28 4.6 0.626 Maryland 42 - Virginia 24 -12
Memphis 28 - Navy 20 9.9 0.763 Memphis 28 - Navy 24 4
Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 13 32.9 Miami FL 48 - FCS Team 7
Michigan 45 - Bowling Green 3 40.9 0.99 Michigan 31 - Bowling Green 6 17
Michigan State 24 - Washington 28 6 0.685 Michigan State 7 - Washington 41 30
Middle Tennessee 38 - FCS Team 17 19.4 Middle Tennessee 35 - FCS Team 14
Miss State 30 - Louisiana State 31 0.2 0.507 Miss State 14 - Louisiana State 41 26
Mississippi 41 - Georgia Tech 24 17.1 0.846 Mississippi 48 - Georgia Tech 23 -8
Missouri 24 - Kansas State 31 9 0.75 Missouri 30 - Kansas State 27 -10
NC State 42 - FCS Team 13 29.6 NC State 45 - FCS Team 7
Nebraska 31 - Northern Illinois 17 13.5 0.794 Nebraska 35 - Northern Illinois 11 -10
Nevada 31 - Kansas 35 5.5 0.655 Nevada 24 - Kansas 31 3
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Vanderbilt 24 1.4 0.536 Nevada Las Vegas 40 - Vanderbilt 37 0
New Mexico 24 - New Mexico St 20 4.3 0.642 New Mexico 17 - New Mexico St 27 14
North Carolina 28 - Minnesota 24 3.4 0.586 North Carolina 31 - Minnesota 13 -14
Notre Dame 42 - Central Michigan 10 31.3 0.984 Notre Dame 41 - Central Michigan 7 -2
Ohio 17 - Iowa State 27 10.1 0.762 Ohio 10 - Iowa State 7 -13
Ohio State 45 - Western Kentucky 20 26.2 0.914 Ohio State 63 - Western Kentucky 10 -28
Oklahoma State 38 - South Alabama 14 23.1 0.958 Oklahoma State 7 - South Alabama 33 50
Old Dominion 21 - Wake Forest 35 14.2 0.816 Old Dominion 24 - Wake Forest 27 -11
Oregon 45 - Hawaii 20 25.6 0.969 Oregon 55 - Hawaii 10 -20
Oregon State 28 - San Diego State 17 13.7 0.825 Oregon State 26 - San Diego State 9 -6
Purdue 31 - Syracuse 27 5.9 0.671 Purdue 20 - Syracuse 35 19
Rice 35 - FCS Team 20 16.4 Rice 59 - FCS Team 7
Rutgers 21 - Virginia Tech 20 2 0.544 Rutgers 35 - Virginia Tech 16 -18
South Florida 17 - Alabama 52 34.2 0.989 South Florida 3 - Alabama 17 -21
Southern Methodist 45 - FCS Team 17 28.3 Southern Methodist 69 - FCS Team 0
Southern Miss 21 - Tulane 31 10.3 0.755 Southern Miss 3 - Tulane 21 8
Stanford 38 - FCS Team 17 22.1 Stanford 23 - FCS Team 30
Temple 31 - FCS Team 20 11.6 Temple 41 - FCS Team 9
Texas 38 - Wyoming 17 22.1 0.877 Texas 31 - Wyoming 10 0
Texas AM 41 - Louisiana Monroe 17 23.7 0.92 Texas AM 47 - Louisiana Monroe 3 -20
Texas San Antonio 20 - Army 17 2.1 0.553 Texas San Antonio 29 - Army 37 11
Texas State 35 - FCS Team 17 17.1 Texas State 77 - FCS Team 34
Texas Tech 49 - FCS Team 17 33.3 Texas Tech 41 - FCS Team 3
Toledo 31 - San Jose State 24 5.2 0.664 Toledo 21 - San Jose State 17 3
Troy 24 - James Madison 21 1.7 0.54 Troy 14 - James Madison 16 5
Tulsa 24 - Oklahoma 41 18.2 0.884 Tulsa 17 - Oklahoma 66 32
UCLA 49 - FCS Team 13 37.1 UCLA 59 - FCS Team 7
Utah 49 - FCS Team 7 41.7 Utah 31 - FCS Team 7
Washington State 48 - FCS Team 13 34.5 Washington State 64 - FCS Team 21
West Virginia 29 - Pittsburgh 28 0.8 0.523 West Virginia 17 - Pittsburgh 6 -10
Wisconsin 34 - Georgia Southern 17 16.6 0.857 Wisconsin 35 - Georgia Southern 14 -4


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 40 = 74%
Expected Number Correct: 40.691 = 75.3%
Average Error: 13.01
Average Signed Error: 2.83

WEEK 4

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 41 - Mississippi 28 12.2 0.778 Alabama 24 - Mississippi 10 -1
Arizona State 24 - Southern California 38 14.4 0.81 Arizona State 28 - Southern California 42 0
Arkansas State 20 - Southern Miss 24 4.8 0.633 Arkansas State 44 - Southern Miss 37 -11
Ball State 27 - Georgia Southern 24 0.3 0.517 Ball State 3 - Georgia Southern 40 40
Baylor 27 - Texas 31 6.1 0.652 Baylor 6 - Texas 38 28
Bowling Green 14 - Ohio 21 7.5 0.711 Bowling Green 7 - Ohio 38 24
Cincinnati 27 - Oklahoma 38 11.2 0.759 Cincinnati 6 - Oklahoma 20 3
Clemson 35 - Florida State 27 8.4 0.704 Clemson 24 - Florida State 31 15
Coastal Carolina 28 - Georgia State 27 0.8 0.524 Coastal Carolina 17 - Georgia State 30 14
Connecticut 13 - Duke 34 20.6 0.872 Connecticut 7 - Duke 41 13
East Carolina 41 - FCS Team 17 23 East Carolina 44 - FCS Team 0
Florida 42 - Charlotte 13 31.2 0.967 Florida 22 - Charlotte 7 14
Florida International 20 - Liberty 34 13.4 0.767 Florida International 6 - Liberty 38 18
Fresno State 41 - Kent State 14 24.4 0.939 Fresno State 53 - Kent State 10 -16
Georgia 45 - Alabama Birmingham 10 36.9 0.99 Georgia 49 - Alabama Birmingham 21 7
Hawaii 31 - New Mexico St 21 9.4 0.76 Hawaii 20 - New Mexico St 17 7
Houston 17 - Sam Houston State 7 9 0.778 Houston 38 - Sam Houston State 7 -21
Illinois 28 - Florida Atlantic 17 12.5 0.772 Illinois 23 - Florida Atlantic 17 5
Indiana 31 - Akron 7 24.9 0.962 Indiana 29 - Akron 27 22
Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma State 17 5.4 0.65 Iowa State 34 - Oklahoma State 27 0
Jacksonville State 13 - Eastern Michigan 17 5 0.69 Jacksonville State 21 - Eastern Michigan 0 -25
Kansas 28 - Brigham Young 35 5.9 0.682 Kansas 38 - Brigham Young 27 -18
Kansas State 31 - Central Florida 27 5.4 0.646 Kansas State 44 - Central Florida 31 -9
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Buffalo 21 13.6 0.797 Louisiana Lafayette 45 - Buffalo 38 6
Louisiana State 41 - Arkansas 27 14.3 0.802 Louisiana State 34 - Arkansas 31 11
Louisville 34 - Boston College 24 9.2 0.72 Louisville 56 - Boston College 28 -18
Marshall 24 - Virginia Tech 17 9.1 0.739 Marshall 24 - Virginia Tech 17 0
Massachusetts 25 - New Mexico 24 0.3 0.516 Massachusetts 31 - New Mexico 34 4
Memphis 27 - Missouri 31 3.7 0.618 Memphis 27 - Missouri 34 3
Miami OH 38 - FCS Team 14 24.6 Miami OH 62 - FCS Team 20
Michigan 34 - Rutgers 13 20.4 0.867 Michigan 31 - Rutgers 7 -3
Michigan State 28 - Maryland 24 3.4 0.592 Michigan State 9 - Maryland 31 26
Middle Tennessee 31 - Colorado State 27 3.5 0.587 Middle Tennessee 23 - Colorado State 31 12
Nebraska 31 - Louisiana Tech 13 18.9 0.901 Nebraska 28 - Louisiana Tech 14 4
Northern Illinois 27 - Tulsa 28 0.8 0.524 Northern Illinois 14 - Tulsa 22 7
Northwestern 14 - Minnesota 21 5.3 0.65 Northwestern 37 - Minnesota 34 -10
Notre Dame 31 - Ohio State 38 5.8 0.65 Notre Dame 14 - Ohio State 17 -4
Old Dominion 38 - FCS Team 14 21.3 Old Dominion 10 - FCS Team 9
Oregon 42 - Colorado 27 16.4 0.829 Oregon 42 - Colorado 6 -21
Penn State 31 - Iowa 17 12.1 0.803 Penn State 31 - Iowa 0 -17
Pittsburgh 27 - North Carolina 31 4 0.601 Pittsburgh 24 - North Carolina 41 13
Purdue 24 - Wisconsin 27 2.4 0.569 Purdue 17 - Wisconsin 38 18
San Diego State 17 - Boise State 20 1.7 0.544 San Diego State 31 - Boise State 34 0
San Jose State 20 - Air Force 27 7.8 0.765 San Jose State 20 - Air Force 45 18
South Alabama 27 - Central Michigan 17 9.4 0.745 South Alabama 30 - Central Michigan 34 14
South Carolina 28 - Miss State 24 3.6 0.593 South Carolina 37 - Miss State 30 -3
South Florida 28 - Rice 24 5.3 0.637 South Florida 42 - Rice 29 -9
Stanford 28 - Arizona 27 2.1 0.56 Stanford 20 - Arizona 21 2
Syracuse 28 - Army 20 10.1 0.746 Syracuse 29 - Army 16 -5
Temple 14 - Miami FL 35 21.3 0.874 Temple 7 - Miami FL 41 13
Tennessee 38 - Texas San Antonio 17 20.7 0.872 Tennessee 45 - Texas San Antonio 14 -10
Texas AM 28 - Auburn 27 3.9 0.617 Texas AM 27 - Auburn 10 -16
Texas Christian 35 - Southern Methodist 27 8.8 0.732 Texas Christian 34 - Southern Methodist 17 -9
Texas El Paso 20 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 6.1 0.704 Texas El Paso 28 - Nevada Las Vegas 45 10
Texas State 25 - Nevada 24 0 0.501 Texas State 35 - Nevada 24 -10
Toledo 34 - Western Michigan 20 12.9 0.799 Toledo 49 - Western Michigan 31 -4
Troy 26 - Western Kentucky 27 0.7 0.522 Troy 27 - Western Kentucky 24 -4
Tulane 45 - FCS Team 10 33.5 Tulane 36 - FCS Team 7
Utah 34 - UCLA 24 9.4 0.739 Utah 14 - UCLA 7 3
Utah State 24 - James Madison 21 3.8 0.604 Utah State 38 - James Madison 45 10
Vanderbilt 20 - Kentucky 34 14.4 0.812 Vanderbilt 28 - Kentucky 45 3
Virginia 27 - NC State 28 1.8 0.554 Virginia 21 - NC State 24 2
Wake Forest 38 - Georgia Tech 27 12.2 0.782 Wake Forest 16 - Georgia Tech 30 25
Washington 31 - California 17 13.9 0.821 Washington 59 - California 32 -13
Washington State 31 - Oregon State 28 2.7 0.583 Washington State 38 - Oregon State 35 0
West Virginia 31 - Texas Tech 28 2.8 0.567 West Virginia 20 - Texas Tech 13 -4
Wyoming 27 - Appalachian State 31 4.4 0.637 Wyoming 22 - Appalachian State 19 -7


Number of FBS Games: 63
Number Correct: 47 = 74.6%
Expected Number Correct: 44.638 = 70.8%
Average Error: 10.82
Average Signed Error: 2.31

WEEK 5

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - San Diego State 14 9.1 0.772 Air Force 49 - San Diego State 10 -29
Akron 24 - Buffalo 31 6.2 0.68 Akron 10 - Buffalo 13 -4
Arizona 21 - Washington 38 18 0.902 Arizona 24 - Washington 31 -10
Arkansas 24 - Texas AM 35 11.2 0.78 Arkansas 22 - Texas AM 34 1
Auburn 20 - Georgia 28 10.3 0.76 Auburn 20 - Georgia 27 -1
Boston College 32 - Virginia 31 0.8 0.523 Boston College 27 - Virginia 24 -2
Brigham Young 24 - Cincinnati 21 1.2 0.536 Brigham Young 35 - Cincinnati 27 -5
California 28 - Arizona State 20 8.1 0.73 California 24 - Arizona State 21 5
Central Florida 34 - Baylor 27 5.9 0.658 Central Florida 35 - Baylor 36 8
Central Michigan 24 - Eastern Michigan 14 9.9 0.75 Central Michigan 26 - Eastern Michigan 23 7
Colorado 31 - Southern California 41 9.2 0.722 Colorado 41 - Southern California 48 -3
Colorado State 42 - FCS Team 20 22.5 Colorado State 41 - FCS Team 20
Connecticut 20 - Utah State 28 9.7 0.772 Connecticut 33 - Utah State 34 -7
Duke 21 - Notre Dame 31 9.4 0.741 Duke 14 - Notre Dame 21 -3
Fresno State 38 - Nevada 17 20.9 0.908 Fresno State 27 - Nevada 9 3
Georgia Southern 27 - Coastal Carolina 21 4.9 0.648 Georgia Southern 38 - Coastal Carolina 28 -4
Georgia State 28 - Troy 20 7.6 0.746 Georgia State 7 - Troy 28 29
Georgia Tech 35 - Bowling Green 17 19.1 0.846 Georgia Tech 27 - Bowling Green 38 29
Iowa 21 - Michigan State 14 8.5 0.743 Iowa 26 - Michigan State 16 -3
James Madison 28 - South Alabama 21 7.1 0.688 James Madison 31 - South Alabama 23 -1
Kent State 21 - Miami OH 31 7.7 0.708 Kent State 3 - Miami OH 23 10
Kentucky 23 - Florida 24 0.9 0.524 Kentucky 33 - Florida 14 -20
Louisiana Monroe 20 - Appalachian State 35 15.5 0.82 Louisiana Monroe 40 - Appalachian State 41 -14
Marshall 27 - Old Dominion 13 14.6 0.85 Marshall 41 - Old Dominion 35 8
Maryland 34 - Indiana 21 12.3 0.787 Maryland 44 - Indiana 17 -14
Massachusetts 28 - Arkansas State 31 3.2 0.585 Massachusetts 28 - Arkansas State 52 21
Memphis 27 - Boise State 28 0.5 0.521 Memphis 35 - Boise State 32 -4
Minnesota 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 6.6 0.689 Minnesota 35 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 -4
Miss State 20 - Alabama 38 17.1 0.853 Miss State 17 - Alabama 40 5
Mississippi 35 - Louisiana State 31 2.8 0.573 Mississippi 55 - Louisiana State 49 -2
Navy 28 - South Florida 21 6.3 0.684 Navy 30 - South Florida 44 21
NC State 28 - Louisville 31 1.2 0.538 NC State 10 - Louisville 13 0
Nebraska 14 - Michigan 28 15.3 0.829 Nebraska 7 - Michigan 45 24
Nevada Las Vegas 31 - Hawaii 24 6.3 0.723 Nevada Las Vegas 44 - Hawaii 20 -17
North Texas 41 - FCS Team 27 15.3 North Texas 45 - FCS Team 31
Northwestern 14 - Penn State 34 18.5 0.885 Northwestern 13 - Penn State 41 8
Oklahoma 38 - Iowa State 20 17.1 0.842 Oklahoma 50 - Iowa State 20 -12
Oregon State 24 - Utah 28 4.6 0.652 Oregon State 21 - Utah 7 -18
Purdue 28 - Illinois 24 4.8 0.638 Purdue 44 - Illinois 19 -21
Rice 28 - East Carolina 31 1.8 0.545 Rice 24 - East Carolina 17 -10
Rutgers 41 - FCS Team 10 29.2 Rutgers 52 - FCS Team 3
Sam Houston State -1 - Jacksonville State 0 1.2 0.529 Sam Houston State 28 - Jacksonville State 35 6
Southern Methodist 35 - Charlotte 20 14.6 0.832 Southern Methodist 34 - Charlotte 16 -3
Southern Miss 21 - Texas State 24 2.8 0.571 Southern Miss 36 - Texas State 50 11
Stanford 20 - Oregon 38 18.9 0.903 Stanford 6 - Oregon 42 18
Syracuse 21 - Clemson 31 8.5 0.73 Syracuse 14 - Clemson 31 7
Tennessee 35 - South Carolina 24 11.4 0.755 Tennessee 41 - South Carolina 20 -10
Texas 45 - Kansas 21 22.4 0.913 Texas 40 - Kansas 14 -2
Texas Christian 31 - West Virginia 27 5.2 0.642 Texas Christian 21 - West Virginia 24 7
Texas El Paso 22 - Louisiana Tech 21 0.6 0.523 Texas El Paso 10 - Louisiana Tech 24 15
Texas Tech 38 - Houston 28 9.3 0.731 Texas Tech 49 - Houston 28 -11
Toledo 31 - Northern Illinois 20 12.8 0.804 Toledo 35 - Northern Illinois 33 9
Tulane 31 - Alabama Birmingham 20 11.9 0.782 Tulane 35 - Alabama Birmingham 23 -1
Tulsa 31 - Temple 20 11.8 0.8 Tulsa 48 - Temple 26 -11
Vanderbilt 24 - Missouri 35 11.1 0.775 Vanderbilt 21 - Missouri 38 6
Virginia Tech 24 - Pittsburgh 27 2.6 0.57 Virginia Tech 38 - Pittsburgh 21 -20
Western Kentucky 34 - Middle Tennessee 24 9.8 0.718 Western Kentucky 31 - Middle Tennessee 10 -11
Western Michigan 27 - Ball State 21 4.7 0.648 Western Michigan 42 - Ball State 24 -12
Wyoming 31 - New Mexico 7 23.6 0.983 Wyoming 35 - New Mexico 26 15


Number of FBS Games: 56
Number Correct: 45 = 80.3%
Expected Number Correct: 40.36 = 72%
Average Error: 10.03
Average Signed Error: -0.29

WEEK 6

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Northern Illinois 21 3.3 0.598 Akron 14 - Northern Illinois 55 37
Alabama Birmingham 31 - South Florida 28 1.5 0.54 Alabama Birmingham 56 - South Florida 35 -18
Arizona State 29 - Colorado 28 0.7 0.522 Arizona State 24 - Colorado 27 4
Army 27 - Boston College 21 5.2 0.644 Army 24 - Boston College 27 9
Baylor 32 - Texas Tech 31 0.8 0.522 Baylor 14 - Texas Tech 39 26
Boise State 34 - San Jose State 20 13 0.825 Boise State 35 - San Jose State 27 6
Buffalo 27 - Central Michigan 24 3.5 0.609 Buffalo 37 - Central Michigan 13 -21
California 24 - Oregon State 31 6.2 0.71 California 40 - Oregon State 52 5
Clemson 38 - Wake Forest 17 19.8 0.869 Clemson 17 - Wake Forest 12 16
Eastern Michigan 21 - Ball State 14 6.9 0.707 Eastern Michigan 24 - Ball State 20 3
Florida 38 - Vanderbilt 17 20.2 0.871 Florida 38 - Vanderbilt 14 -3
Florida Atlantic 25 - Tulsa 24 0.3 0.512 Florida Atlantic 20 - Tulsa 17 -2
Florida State 38 - Virginia Tech 21 16.1 0.814 Florida State 39 - Virginia Tech 17 -5
Georgia 34 - Kentucky 20 13.1 0.792 Georgia 51 - Kentucky 13 -24
Illinois 24 - Nebraska 21 1.5 0.535 Illinois 7 - Nebraska 20 16
Iowa 28 - Purdue 21 6.6 0.698 Iowa 20 - Purdue 14 1
Iowa State 27 - Texas Christian 28 1.2 0.532 Iowa State 27 - Texas Christian 14 -14
Kansas 34 - Central Florida 38 2.2 0.561 Kansas 51 - Central Florida 22 -33
Liberty 27 - Sam Houston State 6 21.2 0.865 Liberty 21 - Sam Houston State 6 6
Louisiana Lafayette 35 - Texas State 24 10.5 0.77 Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Texas State 30 7
Louisiana Monroe 24 - South Alabama 27 1.1 0.527 Louisiana Monroe 7 - South Alabama 55 45
Louisiana Tech 20 - Western Kentucky 31 11.2 0.761 Louisiana Tech 28 - Western Kentucky 35 -4
Louisville 21 - Notre Dame 34 10.7 0.781 Louisville 33 - Notre Dame 20 -26
Massachusetts 21 - Toledo 38 17.7 0.897 Massachusetts 24 - Toledo 41 0
Miami FL 38 - Georgia Tech 20 18.7 0.826 Miami FL 20 - Georgia Tech 23 21
Miami OH 27 - Bowling Green 14 10.3 0.739 Miami OH 27 - Bowling Green 0 -14
Middle Tennessee 20 - Jacksonville State 14 5 0.645 Middle Tennessee 30 - Jacksonville State 45 21
Minnesota 17 - Michigan 28 12.9 0.797 Minnesota 10 - Michigan 52 31
Miss State 41 - Western Michigan 21 18.4 0.878 Miss State 41 - Western Michigan 28 7
Mississippi 41 - Arkansas 28 12.4 0.834 Mississippi 27 - Arkansas 20 6
Missouri 34 - Louisiana State 35 2.7 0.572 Missouri 39 - Louisiana State 49 9
Navy 38 - North Texas 27 11 0.757 Navy 27 - North Texas 24 8
NC State 24 - Marshall 20 3 0.625 NC State 48 - Marshall 41 -3
New Mexico St 21 - Florida International 17 4 0.602 New Mexico St 34 - Florida International 17 -13
North Carolina 34 - Syracuse 27 7.6 0.719 North Carolina 40 - Syracuse 7 -26
Northwestern 42 - FCS Team 13 28.5 Northwestern 23 - FCS Team 20
Ohio 31 - Kent State 10 21.4 0.891 Ohio 42 - Kent State 17 -4
Ohio State 45 - Maryland 24 22.1 0.885 Ohio State 37 - Maryland 17 1
Oklahoma State 24 - Kansas State 34 9.4 0.726 Oklahoma State 29 - Kansas State 21 -18
Rice 31 - Connecticut 20 10.8 0.772 Rice 31 - Connecticut 38 18
Southern California 45 - Arizona 27 17.1 0.837 Southern California 43 - Arizona 41 16
Southern Miss 24 - Old Dominion 28 4.1 0.647 Southern Miss 13 - Old Dominion 17 0
Temple 20 - Texas San Antonio 28 8.2 0.738 Temple 34 - Texas San Antonio 49 7
Texas 31 - Oklahoma 34 0.7 0.522 Texas 30 - Oklahoma 34 1
Texas AM 24 - Alabama 31 5.6 0.677 Texas AM 20 - Alabama 26 -1
Troy 34 - Arkansas State 14 18.4 0.847 Troy 37 - Arkansas State 3 -14
UCLA 30 - Washington State 31 0.6 0.524 UCLA 25 - Washington State 17 -9
Utah State 35 - Colorado State 28 5.7 0.705 Utah State 44 - Colorado State 24 -13
Virginia 42 - FCS Team 17 27.2 Virginia 27 - FCS Team 13
Wisconsin 28 - Rutgers 14 15.3 0.811 Wisconsin 24 - Rutgers 13 3
Wyoming 20 - Fresno State 24 5.6 0.677 Wyoming 24 - Fresno State 19 -9


Number of FBS Games: 49
Number Correct: 36 = 73.4%
Expected Number Correct: 34.715 = 70.8%
Average Error: 12.32
Average Signed Error: 1.14

WEEK 7

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Wyoming 14 12.2 0.778 Air Force 34 - Wyoming 27 6
Alabama 38 - Arkansas 17 21.9 0.972 Alabama 24 - Arkansas 21 18
Appalachian State 34 - Coastal Carolina 24 9.8 0.753 Appalachian State 24 - Coastal Carolina 27 13
Army 17 - Troy 20 2.4 0.564 Army 0 - Troy 19 16
Ball State 20 - Toledo 31 10.6 0.796 Ball State 6 - Toledo 13 -4
Buffalo 28 - Bowling Green 17 10.1 0.72 Buffalo 14 - Bowling Green 24 21
Central Michigan 28 - Akron 14 13.9 0.764 Central Michigan 17 - Akron 10 7
Charlotte 23 - Navy 24 0.5 0.521 Charlotte 0 - Navy 14 13
Cincinnati 21 - Iowa State 24 1.1 0.53 Cincinnati 10 - Iowa State 30 17
Colorado 34 - Stanford 24 8.8 0.729 Colorado 43 - Stanford 46 13
Colorado State 24 - Boise State 34 8.7 0.758 Colorado State 31 - Boise State 30 -11
Duke 28 - NC State 24 6.5 0.708 Duke 24 - NC State 3 -17
East Carolina 21 - Southern Methodist 28 7.6 0.728 East Carolina 10 - Southern Methodist 31 14
Eastern Michigan 24 - Kent State 17 6.8 0.704 Eastern Michigan 28 - Kent State 14 -7
Florida International 20 - Texas El Paso 17 2.3 0.559 Florida International 14 - Texas El Paso 27 16
Florida State 38 - Syracuse 21 15.5 0.805 Florida State 41 - Syracuse 3 -21
Georgia State 27 - Marshall 28 0.4 0.516 Georgia State 41 - Marshall 24 -18
Hawaii 20 - San Diego State 24 6 0.689 Hawaii 34 - San Diego State 41 3
Houston 24 - West Virginia 31 6.8 0.705 Houston 41 - West Virginia 39 -9
Jacksonville State 17 - Liberty 24 7.3 0.715 Jacksonville State 13 - Liberty 31 11
James Madison 28 - Georgia Southern 24 6.4 0.715 James Madison 41 - Georgia Southern 13 -24
Kentucky 31 - Missouri 24 6.7 0.694 Kentucky 21 - Missouri 38 24
Louisiana State 35 - Auburn 28 6.4 0.699 Louisiana State 48 - Auburn 18 -23
Maryland 35 - Illinois 21 15.3 0.811 Maryland 24 - Illinois 27 17
Memphis 23 - Tulane 24 0.4 0.515 Memphis 21 - Tulane 31 9
Michigan 41 - Indiana 10 29.4 0.966 Michigan 52 - Indiana 7 -14
Middle Tennessee 24 - Louisiana Tech 21 2.8 0.587 Middle Tennessee 31 - Louisiana Tech 23 -5
Nevada 26 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 0.1 0.504 Nevada 27 - Nevada Las Vegas 45 17
New Mexico 21 - San Jose State 27 5.2 0.705 New Mexico 24 - San Jose State 52 22
New Mexico St 13 - Sam Houston State 10 2.7 0.565 New Mexico St 27 - Sam Houston State 13 -11
North Carolina 34 - Miami FL 27 7.7 0.683 North Carolina 41 - Miami FL 31 -3
North Texas 35 - Temple 27 7.9 0.724 North Texas 45 - Temple 14 -23
Northern Illinois 21 - Ohio 24 3.6 0.588 Northern Illinois 23 - Ohio 13 -13
Notre Dame 41 - Southern California 31 9.6 0.743 Notre Dame 48 - Southern California 20 -18
Oklahoma State 35 - Kansas 28 7.1 0.679 Oklahoma State 39 - Kansas 32 0
Oregon State 31 - UCLA 28 3 0.612 Oregon State 36 - UCLA 24 -9
Penn State 52 - Massachusetts 3 48.2 0.992 Penn State 63 - Massachusetts 0 -14
Pittsburgh 27 - Louisville 31 6.8 0.685 Pittsburgh 38 - Louisville 21 -21
Purdue 21 - Ohio State 42 19.9 0.874 Purdue 7 - Ohio State 41 13
Rutgers 21 - Michigan State 17 4.5 0.646 Rutgers 27 - Michigan State 24 1
South Carolina 25 - Florida 24 0 0.502 South Carolina 39 - Florida 41 3
South Florida 27 - Florida Atlantic 24 1.8 0.542 South Florida 14 - Florida Atlantic 56 45
Tennessee 34 - Texas AM 28 3.7 0.592 Tennessee 20 - Texas AM 13 -1
Texas Christian 34 - Brigham Young 28 5.2 0.656 Texas Christian 44 - Brigham Young 11 -27
Texas San Antonio 29 - Alabama Birmingham 28 0.1 0.503 Texas San Antonio 41 - Alabama Birmingham 20 -20
Texas State 34 - Louisiana Monroe 24 11.4 0.749 Texas State 21 - Louisiana Monroe 20 9
Texas Tech 35 - Kansas State 31 4.1 0.602 Texas Tech 21 - Kansas State 38 21
Utah 31 - California 17 14.2 0.836 Utah 34 - California 14 -6
Utah State 24 - Fresno State 31 5 0.661 Utah State 32 - Fresno State 37 -2
Vanderbilt 14 - Georgia 45 30.7 0.986 Vanderbilt 20 - Georgia 37 -14
Virginia Tech 28 - Wake Forest 27 0.1 0.506 Virginia Tech 30 - Wake Forest 13 -16
Washington 34 - Oregon 31 0.7 0.525 Washington 36 - Oregon 33 0
Washington State 38 - Arizona 24 13.5 0.814 Washington State 6 - Arizona 44 52
Western Michigan 21 - Miami OH 28 7 0.687 Western Michigan 21 - Miami OH 34 6
Wisconsin 24 - Iowa 17 8.1 0.745 Wisconsin 6 - Iowa 15 16


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 39 = 70.9%
Expected Number Correct: 37.907 = 68.9%
Average Error: 14.07
Average Signed Error: 1.3

WEEK 8

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 31 - Tennessee 24 8.4 0.715 Alabama 34 - Tennessee 20 -7
Alabama Birmingham 27 - Memphis 31 3.9 0.631 Alabama Birmingham 21 - Memphis 45 20
Arkansas 34 - Miss State 28 5.4 0.669 Arkansas 3 - Miss State 7 10
Arkansas State 24 - Coastal Carolina 31 7 0.698 Arkansas State 17 - Coastal Carolina 27 3
Auburn 28 - Mississippi 31 4.6 0.65 Auburn 21 - Mississippi 28 4
Ball State 17 - Central Michigan 20 3.1 0.578 Ball State 24 - Central Michigan 17 -10
Bowling Green 24 - Akron 10 13.6 0.76 Bowling Green 41 - Akron 14 -13
Brigham Young 31 - Texas Tech 35 3.8 0.604 Brigham Young 27 - Texas Tech 14 -17
Cincinnati 27 - Baylor 21 4.8 0.642 Cincinnati 29 - Baylor 32 9
Connecticut 31 - South Florida 28 2.6 0.555 Connecticut 21 - South Florida 24 6
East Carolina 24 - Charlotte 17 6.5 0.705 East Carolina 7 - Charlotte 10 10
Florida Atlantic 27 - Texas San Antonio 21 5.2 0.632 Florida Atlantic 10 - Texas San Antonio 36 32
Florida State 31 - Duke 24 9.7 0.747 Florida State 38 - Duke 20 -11
Georgia Southern 34 - Louisiana Monroe 20 14.9 0.791 Georgia Southern 38 - Louisiana Monroe 28 4
Georgia Tech 31 - Boston College 28 3.4 0.577 Georgia Tech 23 - Boston College 38 18
Houston 24 - Texas 41 15.5 0.845 Houston 24 - Texas 31 -10
Illinois 17 - Wisconsin 27 7.6 0.695 Illinois 21 - Wisconsin 25 -6
Indiana 21 - Rutgers 24 3.6 0.6 Indiana 14 - Rutgers 31 14
Iowa 24 - Minnesota 14 10.8 0.792 Iowa 10 - Minnesota 12 12
Jacksonville State 20 - Western Kentucky 24 4.5 0.635 Jacksonville State 20 - Western Kentucky 17 -7
Kansas State 34 - Texas Christian 28 6 0.645 Kansas State 41 - Texas Christian 3 -32
Kent State 20 - Buffalo 28 7.8 0.712 Kent State 6 - Buffalo 24 10
Liberty 31 - Middle Tennessee 14 17.2 0.851 Liberty 42 - Middle Tennessee 35 10
Louisiana Lafayette 29 - Georgia State 28 1.5 0.539 Louisiana Lafayette 17 - Georgia State 20 4
Louisiana State 42 - Army 20 23 0.948 Louisiana State 62 - Army 0 -40
Marshall 24 - James Madison 31 4.4 0.635 Marshall 9 - James Madison 20 4
Miami FL 24 - Clemson 28 5.5 0.646 Miami FL 28 - Clemson 20 -12
Miami OH 24 - Toledo 17 5.1 0.659 Miami OH 17 - Toledo 21 11
Michigan State 17 - Michigan 35 19.7 0.908 Michigan State 0 - Michigan 49 31
Missouri 35 - South Carolina 28 6.3 0.706 Missouri 34 - South Carolina 12 -15
Navy 13 - Air Force 27 14 0.812 Navy 6 - Air Force 17 -3
Nebraska 24 - Northwestern 20 6 0.668 Nebraska 17 - Northwestern 9 -4
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - Colorado State 27 9.5 0.776 Nevada Las Vegas 25 - Colorado State 23 6
New Mexico 27 - Hawaii 31 3.5 0.631 New Mexico 42 - Hawaii 21 -25
North Carolina 42 - Virginia 24 18.5 0.892 North Carolina 27 - Virginia 31 22
Northern Illinois 27 - Eastern Michigan 13 13.2 0.793 Northern Illinois 20 - Eastern Michigan 13 7
Ohio 31 - Western Michigan 17 14.5 0.804 Ohio 20 - Western Michigan 17 11
Ohio State 34 - Penn State 27 7.5 0.715 Ohio State 20 - Penn State 12 -1
Oklahoma 49 - Central Florida 24 26.7 0.924 Oklahoma 31 - Central Florida 29 23
Old Dominion 24 - Appalachian State 28 4.1 0.649 Old Dominion 28 - Appalachian State 21 -11
Oregon 41 - Washington State 21 18.6 0.845 Oregon 38 - Washington State 24 6
Sam Houston State 14 - Florida International 7 6.7 0.682 Sam Houston State 27 - Florida International 33 13
San Diego State 27 - Nevada 17 9.4 0.747 San Diego State 0 - Nevada 6 16
San Jose State 28 - Utah State 31 2.5 0.584 San Jose State 42 - Utah State 21 -24
South Alabama 34 - Southern Miss 14 18.2 0.814 South Alabama 55 - Southern Miss 3 -32
Southern California 30 - Utah 31 0.6 0.521 Southern California 32 - Utah 34 1
Stanford 24 - UCLA 31 8.6 0.744 Stanford 7 - UCLA 42 28
Temple 17 - Southern Methodist 38 19.9 0.937 Temple 0 - Southern Methodist 55 34
Texas El Paso 20 - New Mexico St 17 1.2 0.535 Texas El Paso 7 - New Mexico St 28 24
Tulane 38 - North Texas 17 18.3 0.841 Tulane 35 - North Texas 28 14
Tulsa 34 - Rice 20 12.4 0.795 Tulsa 10 - Rice 42 46
Wake Forest 27 - Pittsburgh 28 0.7 0.521 Wake Forest 21 - Pittsburgh 7 -15
Washington 41 - Arizona State 17 23.9 0.983 Washington 15 - Arizona State 7 16
West Virginia 28 - Oklahoma State 27 2.4 0.561 West Virginia 34 - Oklahoma State 48 15


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 31 = 57.4%
Expected Number Correct: 38.544 = 71.3%
Average Error: 14.61
Average Signed Error: 3.68

WEEK 9

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 35 - Southern Miss 17 17.5 0.872 Appalachian State 48 - Southern Miss 38 8
Arizona 31 - Oregon State 34 3.2 0.573 Arizona 27 - Oregon State 24 -6
Arizona State 23 - Washington State 24 0.7 0.522 Arizona State 38 - Washington State 27 -12
Army 35 - Massachusetts 17 19.3 0.848 Army 14 - Massachusetts 21 25
Auburn 28 - Miss State 24 5.3 0.682 Auburn 27 - Miss State 13 -10
Baylor 24 - Iowa State 28 5.2 0.645 Baylor 18 - Iowa State 30 8
Boise State 27 - Wyoming 21 3.2 0.606 Boise State 32 - Wyoming 7 -19
Boston College 35 - Connecticut 17 17.7 0.851 Boston College 21 - Connecticut 14 11
California 38 - Southern California 42 4.8 0.639 California 49 - Southern California 50 -3
Central Florida 34 - West Virginia 31 2 0.547 Central Florida 28 - West Virginia 41 16
Charlotte 17 - Florida Atlantic 20 2.7 0.559 Charlotte 16 - Florida Atlantic 38 19
Coastal Carolina 23 - Marshall 24 0.8 0.527 Coastal Carolina 34 - Marshall 6 -29
Colorado State 17 - Air Force 31 14.3 0.831 Colorado State 13 - Air Force 30 3
Eastern Michigan 24 - Western Michigan 21 0.9 0.528 Eastern Michigan 21 - Western Michigan 45 27
Florida International 14 - Jacksonville State 21 8.1 0.722 Florida International 16 - Jacksonville State 41 18
Fresno State 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 12.9 0.829 Fresno State 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 7
Georgia 35 - Florida 21 13 0.766 Georgia 43 - Florida 20 -9
Georgia Southern 26 - Georgia State 27 0.9 0.527 Georgia Southern 44 - Georgia State 27 -18
Georgia Tech 28 - North Carolina 38 10 0.734 Georgia Tech 46 - North Carolina 44 -12
Hawaii 24 - San Jose State 34 9.1 0.741 Hawaii 0 - San Jose State 35 25
James Madison 31 - Old Dominion 13 17.9 0.911 James Madison 30 - Old Dominion 27 15
Kansas 31 - Oklahoma 45 12.7 0.759 Kansas 38 - Oklahoma 33 -19
Kansas State 42 - Houston 24 19.4 0.849 Kansas State 41 - Houston 0 -23
Kentucky 27 - Tennessee 31 5.6 0.637 Kentucky 27 - Tennessee 33 2
Louisiana Monroe 31 - Arkansas State 27 4.3 0.613 Louisiana Monroe 24 - Arkansas State 34 14
Louisiana Tech 21 - New Mexico St 20 2.5 0.578 Louisiana Tech 24 - New Mexico St 27 4
Louisville 28 - Duke 27 0.5 0.514 Louisville 23 - Duke 0 -22
Miami FL 34 - Virginia 24 9.1 0.724 Miami FL 29 - Virginia 26 7
Minnesota 28 - Michigan State 17 10.4 0.777 Minnesota 27 - Michigan State 12 -4
Mississippi 45 - Vanderbilt 21 24.8 0.976 Mississippi 33 - Vanderbilt 7 -2
NC State 20 - Clemson 27 6.8 0.728 NC State 24 - Clemson 17 -14
Nebraska 27 - Purdue 24 4.3 0.619 Nebraska 31 - Purdue 14 -14
Nevada 27 - New Mexico 17 8.9 0.74 Nevada 34 - New Mexico 24 0
North Texas 27 - Memphis 35 8.2 0.731 North Texas 42 - Memphis 45 -5
Northwestern 27 - Maryland 31 4.7 0.649 Northwestern 33 - Maryland 27 -10
Notre Dame 35 - Pittsburgh 14 21.6 0.854 Notre Dame 58 - Pittsburgh 7 -30
Ohio 17 - Miami OH 14 3.2 0.581 Ohio 16 - Miami OH 30 17
Oklahoma State 38 - Cincinnati 21 15 0.83 Oklahoma State 45 - Cincinnati 13 -15
Penn State 41 - Indiana 10 31.9 0.991 Penn State 33 - Indiana 24 22
Rice 20 - Tulane 31 9.2 0.714 Rice 28 - Tulane 30 -9
Sam Houston State 14 - Texas El Paso 10 3.7 0.617 Sam Houston State 34 - Texas El Paso 37 7
South Alabama 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 8.3 0.684 South Alabama 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 33 23
Southern Methodist 35 - Tulsa 17 18.7 0.867 Southern Methodist 69 - Tulsa 10 -41
Stanford 20 - Washington 38 18.2 0.874 Stanford 33 - Washington 42 -9
Texas 38 - Brigham Young 20 18.4 0.851 Texas 35 - Brigham Young 6 -11
Texas AM 35 - South Carolina 21 14.8 0.836 Texas AM 30 - South Carolina 17 1
Texas San Antonio 28 - East Carolina 17 12.4 0.778 Texas San Antonio 41 - East Carolina 27 -3
Texas State 14 - Troy 24 9.8 0.78 Texas State 13 - Troy 31 8
UCLA 41 - Colorado 24 15.3 0.835 UCLA 28 - Colorado 16 5
Utah 28 - Oregon 27 1.1 0.536 Utah 6 - Oregon 35 30
Virginia Tech 28 - Syracuse 21 6.3 0.657 Virginia Tech 38 - Syracuse 10 -21
Wake Forest 21 - Florida State 35 13.4 0.785 Wake Forest 16 - Florida State 41 11
Western Kentucky 26 - Liberty 27 0.3 0.51 Western Kentucky 29 - Liberty 42 12
Wisconsin 17 - Ohio State 34 14.7 0.821 Wisconsin 10 - Ohio State 24 -3


Number of FBS Games: 54
Number Correct: 37 = 68.5%
Expected Number Correct: 38.755 = 71.7%
Average Error: 13.29
Average Signed Error: -0.52

WEEK 10

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Army 7 19.6 0.865 Air Force 3 - Army 23 40
Akron 21 - Kent State 20 0.9 0.525 Akron 31 - Kent State 27 -3
Alabama 38 - Louisiana State 34 5.9 0.654 Alabama 42 - Louisiana State 28 -10
Alabama Birmingham 27 - Florida Atlantic 24 2.3 0.546 Alabama Birmingham 45 - Florida Atlantic 42 0
Appalachian State 31 - Marshall 27 4.4 0.632 Appalachian State 31 - Marshall 9 -18
Arizona 26 - UCLA 27 0.6 0.521 Arizona 27 - UCLA 10 -18
Arkansas State 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 34 12 0.767 Arkansas State 37 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 -33
Baylor 32 - Houston 31 2.8 0.576 Baylor 24 - Houston 25 2
Bowling Green 21 - Ball State 13 8.1 0.696 Bowling Green 24 - Ball State 21 5
Central Michigan 17 - Northern Illinois 21 3.8 0.586 Central Michigan 37 - Northern Illinois 31 -10
Cincinnati 30 - Central Florida 31 1.5 0.539 Cincinnati 26 - Central Florida 28 1
Clemson 21 - Notre Dame 31 7.9 0.698 Clemson 31 - Notre Dame 23 -18
Colorado 31 - Oregon State 38 7.3 0.711 Colorado 19 - Oregon State 26 0
Duke 27 - Wake Forest 17 8.6 0.723 Duke 24 - Wake Forest 21 7
East Carolina 14 - Tulane 27 10.8 0.774 East Carolina 10 - Tulane 13 -10
Florida 31 - Arkansas 24 4.2 0.618 Florida 36 - Arkansas 39 10
Fresno State 28 - Boise State 24 5.1 0.647 Fresno State 37 - Boise State 30 -3
Georgia 38 - Missouri 24 13.9 0.802 Georgia 30 - Missouri 21 5
Georgia State 21 - James Madison 24 3.6 0.599 Georgia State 14 - James Madison 42 25
Indiana 20 - Wisconsin 28 10.4 0.753 Indiana 20 - Wisconsin 14 -14
Iowa State 34 - Kansas 28 6.1 0.659 Iowa State 21 - Kansas 28 13
Liberty 34 - Louisiana Tech 17 18.2 0.934 Liberty 56 - Louisiana Tech 30 -9
Louisville 31 - Virginia Tech 21 10.6 0.708 Louisville 34 - Virginia Tech 3 -21
Maryland 24 - Penn State 38 11.4 0.764 Maryland 15 - Penn State 51 22
Massachusetts 34 - FCS Team 24 7.9 Massachusetts 31 - FCS Team 21
Memphis 41 - South Florida 24 18.2 0.813 Memphis 59 - South Florida 50 8
Michigan 45 - Purdue 14 29.1 0.961 Michigan 41 - Purdue 13 3
Michigan State 17 - Nebraska 24 5.7 0.685 Michigan State 20 - Nebraska 17 -10
Minnesota 27 - Illinois 17 9.2 0.737 Minnesota 26 - Illinois 27 11
Miss State 28 - Kentucky 27 1 0.528 Miss State 3 - Kentucky 24 22
Mississippi 31 - Texas AM 27 4.1 0.649 Mississippi 38 - Texas AM 35 1
NC State 27 - Miami FL 24 1.1 0.53 NC State 20 - Miami FL 6 -11
Nevada 28 - Hawaii 17 12 0.781 Nevada 14 - Hawaii 27 24
New Mexico 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 34 8.9 0.785 New Mexico 14 - Nevada Las Vegas 56 32
New Mexico St 24 - Middle Tennessee 21 1.7 0.542 New Mexico St 13 - Middle Tennessee 7 -3
North Carolina 52 - FCS Team 14 36.5 North Carolina 59 - FCS Team 7
North Texas 31 - Texas San Antonio 34 2.2 0.549 North Texas 29 - Texas San Antonio 37 5
Northwestern 14 - Iowa 24 8.2 0.738 Northwestern 7 - Iowa 10 -7
Oklahoma State 34 - Oklahoma 35 0.4 0.512 Oklahoma State 27 - Oklahoma 24 -4
Old Dominion 20 - Coastal Carolina 21 1 0.528 Old Dominion 24 - Coastal Carolina 28 3
Oregon 45 - California 24 19.6 0.903 Oregon 63 - California 19 -23
Pittsburgh 21 - Florida State 38 15.6 0.788 Pittsburgh 7 - Florida State 24 0
Rice 24 - Southern Methodist 35 11.9 0.75 Rice 31 - Southern Methodist 36 -6
Rutgers 14 - Ohio State 35 21.1 0.918 Rutgers 16 - Ohio State 35 -2
Sam Houston State 28 - FCS Team 14 12.8 Sam Houston State 24 - FCS Team 21
San Diego State 23 - Utah State 24 0.5 0.52 San Diego State 24 - Utah State 32 7
South Carolina 27 - Jacksonville State 20 8.3 0.753 South Carolina 38 - Jacksonville State 28 -3
Southern California 40 - Washington 41 0.7 0.522 Southern California 42 - Washington 52 9
Southern Miss 28 - Louisiana Monroe 24 2.7 0.563 Southern Miss 24 - Louisiana Monroe 7 -13
Syracuse 24 - Boston College 27 1.4 0.529 Syracuse 10 - Boston College 17 4
Temple 13 - Navy 27 14.9 0.822 Temple 32 - Navy 18 -28
Tennessee 41 - Connecticut 10 30.4 0.977 Tennessee 59 - Connecticut 3 -25
Texas 28 - Kansas State 27 1.7 0.539 Texas 33 - Kansas State 30 -2
Texas El Paso 17 - Western Kentucky 28 11 0.777 Texas El Paso 13 - Western Kentucky 21 -3
Texas State 27 - Georgia Southern 31 4.2 0.628 Texas State 45 - Georgia Southern 24 -25
Texas Tech 32 - Texas Christian 31 1.1 0.524 Texas Tech 35 - Texas Christian 28 -6
Toledo 28 - Buffalo 17 10.4 0.783 Toledo 31 - Buffalo 13 -7
Troy 21 - South Alabama 14 6.5 0.642 Troy 28 - South Alabama 10 -11
Tulsa 24 - Charlotte 20 4 0.599 Tulsa 26 - Charlotte 33 11
Utah 27 - Arizona State 14 12.7 0.791 Utah 55 - Arizona State 3 -39
Vanderbilt 20 - Auburn 34 13.1 0.82 Vanderbilt 15 - Auburn 31 2
Virginia 35 - Georgia Tech 28 5.6 0.656 Virginia 17 - Georgia Tech 45 35
Washington State 38 - Stanford 27 10.2 0.725 Washington State 7 - Stanford 10 14
West Virginia 34 - Brigham Young 27 7.5 0.718 West Virginia 37 - Brigham Young 7 -23
Wyoming 27 - Colorado State 20 8.4 0.729 Wyoming 24 - Colorado State 15 -2


Number of FBS Games: 62
Number Correct: 43 = 69.3%
Expected Number Correct: 42.611 = 68.7%
Average Error: 11.95
Average Signed Error: -1.6

WEEK 11

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 28 - Auburn 27 0.2 0.511 Arkansas 10 - Auburn 48 39
Army 34 - FCS Team 10 23.5 Army 17 - FCS Team 14
Boise State 38 - New Mexico 14 23.5 0.935 Boise State 42 - New Mexico 14 -4
Boston College 27 - Virginia Tech 24 2.4 0.553 Boston College 22 - Virginia Tech 48 29
Brigham Young 21 - Iowa State 27 4.8 0.626 Brigham Young 13 - Iowa State 45 26
Buffalo 16 - Ohio 17 1.7 0.542 Buffalo 10 - Ohio 20 9
California 34 - Washington State 31 3.3 0.578 California 42 - Washington State 39 0
Central Florida 31 - Oklahoma State 38 8.6 0.713 Central Florida 45 - Oklahoma State 3 -49
Charlotte 20 - Memphis 34 13.2 0.815 Charlotte 38 - Memphis 44 -8
Clemson 38 - Georgia Tech 24 14 0.773 Clemson 42 - Georgia Tech 21 -7
Coastal Carolina 28 - Texas State 20 8 0.718 Coastal Carolina 31 - Texas State 23 0
Colorado 28 - Arizona 34 5.3 0.646 Colorado 31 - Arizona 34 -3
Colorado State 21 - San Diego State 20 3 0.584 Colorado State 22 - San Diego State 19 -2
Florida Atlantic 24 - East Carolina 17 6.6 0.668 Florida Atlantic 7 - East Carolina 22 22
Florida State 35 - Miami FL 21 15.3 0.815 Florida State 27 - Miami FL 20 7
Georgia 38 - Mississippi 27 11.1 0.786 Georgia 52 - Mississippi 17 -24
Georgia State 27 - Appalachian State 28 0.2 0.507 Georgia State 14 - Appalachian State 42 27
Hawaii 13 - Air Force 28 14.3 0.774 Hawaii 27 - Air Force 13 -29
Houston 31 - Cincinnati 27 5.6 0.682 Houston 14 - Cincinnati 24 14
Illinois 27 - Indiana 24 4.1 0.599 Illinois 48 - Indiana 45 0
Iowa 21 - Rutgers 14 8.4 0.748 Iowa 22 - Rutgers 0 -15
James Madison 35 - Connecticut 10 26.2 0.955 James Madison 44 - Connecticut 6 -13
Kansas 38 - Texas Tech 35 2.8 0.562 Kansas 13 - Texas Tech 16 6
Kansas State 41 - Baylor 17 23.3 0.933 Kansas State 59 - Baylor 25 -10
Kent State 14 - Bowling Green 24 8.4 0.703 Kent State 19 - Bowling Green 49 20
Kentucky 21 - Alabama 34 11.4 0.761 Kentucky 21 - Alabama 49 15
Liberty 34 - Old Dominion 21 12.7 0.826 Liberty 38 - Old Dominion 10 -15
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Southern Miss 17 15.3 0.787 Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Southern Miss 34 20
Louisiana Monroe 7 - Troy 28 21.2 0.901 Louisiana Monroe 14 - Troy 45 10
Louisiana State 48 - Florida 31 15.4 0.791 Louisiana State 52 - Florida 35 0
Louisiana Tech 24 - Sam Houston State 14 9.2 0.79 Louisiana Tech 27 - Sam Houston State 42 25
Louisville 38 - Virginia 20 18.3 0.803 Louisville 31 - Virginia 24 11
Marshall 28 - Georgia Southern 27 0.9 0.523 Marshall 38 - Georgia Southern 33 -4
Miami OH 31 - Akron 6 25.4 0.933 Miami OH 19 - Akron 0 6
Middle Tennessee 28 - Florida International 17 12.5 0.785 Middle Tennessee 40 - Florida International 6 -23
Missouri 30 - Tennessee 31 1.8 0.541 Missouri 36 - Tennessee 7 -30
Navy 21 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.9 0.525 Navy 31 - Alabama Birmingham 6 -28
Nebraska 28 - Maryland 27 3.6 0.596 Nebraska 10 - Maryland 13 4
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Wyoming 21 5.1 0.655 Nevada Las Vegas 34 - Wyoming 14 -14
North Carolina 34 - Duke 28 5 0.636 North Carolina 47 - Duke 45 4
Northern Illinois 24 - Ball State 14 9.5 0.732 Northern Illinois 17 - Ball State 20 13
Ohio State 41 - Michigan State 10 31.3 0.989 Ohio State 38 - Michigan State 3 -4
Oklahoma 38 - West Virginia 27 11.4 0.756 Oklahoma 59 - West Virginia 20 -28
Oregon 49 - Southern California 34 15.6 0.809 Oregon 36 - Southern California 27 6
Oregon State 38 - Stanford 21 16.1 0.824 Oregon State 62 - Stanford 17 -28
Penn State 28 - Michigan 31 0.9 0.525 Penn State 15 - Michigan 24 6
Purdue 26 - Minnesota 27 0.5 0.52 Purdue 49 - Minnesota 30 -20
San Jose State 24 - Fresno State 27 3.3 0.595 San Jose State 42 - Fresno State 18 -27
South Alabama 31 - Arkansas State 20 13 0.724 South Alabama 21 - Arkansas State 14 4
South Carolina 38 - Vanderbilt 24 12.8 0.833 South Carolina 47 - Vanderbilt 6 -27
South Florida 38 - Temple 24 11.9 0.73 South Florida 27 - Temple 23 10
Southern Methodist 41 - North Texas 24 18.4 0.826 Southern Methodist 45 - North Texas 21 -7
Syracuse 21 - Pittsburgh 24 4.2 0.58 Syracuse 28 - Pittsburgh 13 -18
Texas AM 34 - Miss State 17 15 0.853 Texas AM 51 - Miss State 10 -24
Texas Christian 24 - Texas 35 9.1 0.714 Texas Christian 26 - Texas 29 -8
Texas San Antonio 34 - Rice 24 10 0.742 Texas San Antonio 34 - Rice 14 -10
Toledo 28 - Eastern Michigan 10 17.8 0.934 Toledo 49 - Eastern Michigan 23 -8
Tulane 34 - Tulsa 13 20.3 0.873 Tulane 24 - Tulsa 22 19
UCLA 31 - Arizona State 17 14.3 0.786 UCLA 7 - Arizona State 17 24
Utah State 31 - Nevada 20 10.1 0.752 Utah State 41 - Nevada 24 -6
Wake Forest 25 - NC State 24 0 0.501 Wake Forest 6 - NC State 26 21
Washington 28 - Utah 27 3.4 0.579 Washington 35 - Utah 28 -6
Western Kentucky 24 - New Mexico St 14 10.9 0.773 Western Kentucky 29 - New Mexico St 38 19
Western Michigan 28 - Central Michigan 24 5.8 0.642 Western Michigan 38 - Central Michigan 28 -6
Wisconsin 27 - Northwestern 17 10.4 0.765 Wisconsin 10 - Northwestern 24 24


Number of FBS Games: 64
Number Correct: 44 = 68.7%
Expected Number Correct: 45.936 = 71.7%
Average Error: 14.76
Average Signed Error: -1.02

WEEK 12

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 3.2 0.567 Air Force 27 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 7
Alabama 56 - FCS Team 3 52.3 Alabama 66 - FCS Team 10
Alabama Birmingham 34 - Temple 21 12.4 0.757 Alabama Birmingham 34 - Temple 24 3
Arizona 24 - Utah 27 3.8 0.584 Arizona 42 - Utah 18 -27
Arizona State 17 - Oregon 35 18.3 0.819 Arizona State 13 - Oregon 49 18
Arkansas 38 - Florida International 13 24.2 0.902 Arkansas 44 - Florida International 20 1
Arkansas State 27 - Texas State 24 0.8 0.523 Arkansas State 77 - Texas State 31 -43
Army 17 - Coastal Carolina 20 3.5 0.569 Army 28 - Coastal Carolina 21 -10
Auburn 31 - New Mexico St 10 20.5 0.89 Auburn 10 - New Mexico St 31 42
Ball State 27 - Kent State 13 14.1 0.827 Ball State 34 - Kent State 3 -17
Bowling Green 20 - Toledo 24 6.4 0.678 Bowling Green 31 - Toledo 32 -3
Brigham Young 24 - Oklahoma 42 18.8 0.81 Brigham Young 24 - Oklahoma 31 -11
Charlotte 21 - Rice 24 2.1 0.549 Charlotte 7 - Rice 28 18
Clemson 38 - North Carolina 31 8.2 0.719 Clemson 31 - North Carolina 20 -4
Colorado State 24 - Nevada 20 5.6 0.673 Colorado State 30 - Nevada 20 -6
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 20 11.4 Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 3
Eastern Michigan 24 - Akron 13 10.7 0.767 Eastern Michigan 30 - Akron 27 8
Florida Atlantic 17 - Tulane 24 4.4 0.606 Florida Atlantic 8 - Tulane 24 9
Florida State 52 - FCS Team 7 45.3 Florida State 58 - FCS Team 13
Fresno State 38 - New Mexico 14 23.5 0.929 Fresno State 17 - New Mexico 25 32
Georgia Southern 28 - Old Dominion 24 3.9 0.607 Georgia Southern 17 - Old Dominion 20 7
Georgia Tech 31 - Syracuse 24 6.9 0.652 Georgia Tech 31 - Syracuse 22 -2
Houston 27 - Oklahoma State 34 7.8 0.663 Houston 30 - Oklahoma State 43 6
Indiana 28 - Michigan State 24 4 0.613 Indiana 21 - Michigan State 24 7
Iowa 28 - Illinois 13 14.2 0.825 Iowa 15 - Illinois 13 13
Iowa State 24 - Texas 31 4.3 0.626 Iowa State 16 - Texas 26 3
Jacksonville State 31 - Louisiana Tech 17 12.3 0.847 Jacksonville State 56 - Louisiana Tech 17 -25
James Madison 31 - Appalachian State 21 8.4 0.728 James Madison 23 - Appalachian State 26 13
Kansas 28 - Kansas State 38 10.5 0.738 Kansas 27 - Kansas State 31 -6
Liberty 45 - Massachusetts 17 29.1 0.977 Liberty 49 - Massachusetts 25 4
Louisiana State 49 - Georgia State 21 27.7 0.923 Louisiana State 56 - Georgia State 14 -14
Maryland 20 - Michigan 41 19.7 0.902 Maryland 24 - Michigan 31 -14
Memphis 31 - Southern Methodist 35 4.5 0.617 Memphis 34 - Southern Methodist 38 0
Miami FL 24 - Louisville 27 1.6 0.531 Miami FL 31 - Louisville 38 4
Miami OH 21 - Buffalo 7 13.2 0.813 Miami OH 23 - Buffalo 10 1
Middle Tennessee 27 - Texas El Paso 14 11.6 0.778 Middle Tennessee 34 - Texas El Paso 30 9
Miss State 31 - Southern Miss 17 15.1 0.798 Miss State 41 - Southern Miss 20 -7
Mississippi 45 - Louisiana Monroe 14 31.2 0.979 Mississippi 35 - Louisiana Monroe 3 -1
Missouri 38 - Florida 27 12.5 0.769 Missouri 33 - Florida 31 9
Navy 13 - East Carolina 10 2.4 0.555 Navy 10 - East Carolina 0 -7
Northern Illinois 28 - Western Michigan 24 2.6 0.559 Northern Illinois 24 - Western Michigan 0 -20
Northwestern 28 - Purdue 24 3.4 0.584 Northwestern 25 - Purdue 13 -8
Notre Dame 38 - Wake Forest 17 21.7 0.889 Notre Dame 45 - Wake Forest 17 -7
Ohio 24 - Central Michigan 13 11.9 0.768 Ohio 34 - Central Michigan 20 -3
Ohio State 41 - Minnesota 14 26.4 0.977 Ohio State 37 - Minnesota 3 -7
Oregon State 33 - Washington 34 0.1 0.505 Oregon State 20 - Washington 22 1
Penn State 35 - Rutgers 13 24.1 0.928 Penn State 27 - Rutgers 6 1
Pittsburgh 27 - Boston College 24 2.5 0.549 Pittsburgh 24 - Boston College 16 -5
San Jose State 28 - San Diego State 14 14.7 0.782 San Jose State 24 - San Diego State 13 3
South Alabama 27 - Marshall 17 7.9 0.661 South Alabama 28 - Marshall 0 -18
South Carolina 31 - Kentucky 28 1.6 0.541 South Carolina 17 - Kentucky 14 0
Southern California 38 - UCLA 31 7.5 0.705 Southern California 20 - UCLA 38 25
Stanford 34 - California 35 3.3 0.578 Stanford 15 - California 27 11
Tennessee 27 - Georgia 35 8 0.681 Tennessee 10 - Georgia 38 20
Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 7 44.4 Texas AM 38 - FCS Team 10
Texas Christian 35 - Baylor 24 10.7 0.752 Texas Christian 42 - Baylor 17 -14
Texas San Antonio 41 - South Florida 21 17.1 0.804 Texas San Antonio 49 - South Florida 21 -8
Texas Tech 34 - Central Florida 31 2.9 0.551 Texas Tech 24 - Central Florida 23 2
Troy 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 15.3 0.825 Troy 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 7
Tulsa 28 - North Texas 31 1.2 0.528 Tulsa 28 - North Texas 35 4
Utah State 28 - Boise State 31 3 0.588 Utah State 10 - Boise State 45 32
Virginia 27 - Duke 31 3.1 0.57 Virginia 30 - Duke 27 -7
Virginia Tech 23 - NC State 24 1.1 0.526 Virginia Tech 28 - NC State 35 6
Washington State 34 - Colorado 31 2.9 0.571 Washington State 56 - Colorado 14 -39
West Virginia 34 - Cincinnati 24 9.3 0.734 West Virginia 42 - Cincinnati 21 -11
Western Kentucky 28 - Sam Houston State 14 15.5 0.825 Western Kentucky 28 - Sam Houston State 23 9
Wisconsin 21 - Nebraska 14 5.1 0.649 Wisconsin 24 - Nebraska 17 0
Wyoming 24 - Hawaii 14 9.8 0.729 Wyoming 42 - Hawaii 9 -23


Number of FBS Games: 64
Number Correct: 54 = 84.3%
Expected Number Correct: 45.469 = 71%
Average Error: 10.96
Average Signed Error: -0.5

WEEK 13

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 7 - Ohio 24 15.2 0.824 Akron 14 - Ohio 25 -6
Appalachian State 35 - Georgia Southern 24 12.9 0.773 Appalachian State 55 - Georgia Southern 27 -17
Arizona State 21 - Arizona 28 7.7 0.659 Arizona State 23 - Arizona 59 29
Arkansas 24 - Missouri 35 9.8 0.722 Arkansas 14 - Missouri 48 23
Auburn 21 - Alabama 34 11.8 0.742 Auburn 24 - Alabama 27 -10
Ball State 10 - Miami OH 17 7 0.695 Ball State 15 - Miami OH 17 -5
Baylor 31 - West Virginia 35 5.1 0.644 Baylor 31 - West Virginia 34 -1
Boise State 27 - Air Force 17 8.4 0.685 Boise State 27 - Air Force 19 2
Boston College 21 - Miami FL 28 6.8 0.681 Boston College 20 - Miami FL 45 18
Buffalo 21 - Eastern Michigan 14 8.1 0.757 Buffalo 11 - Eastern Michigan 24 20
Central Florida 38 - Houston 24 12.1 0.742 Central Florida 27 - Houston 13 0
Central Michigan 20 - Toledo 28 9.6 0.769 Central Michigan 17 - Toledo 32 7
Cincinnati 27 - Kansas 31 5.2 0.646 Cincinnati 16 - Kansas 49 29
Coastal Carolina 20 - James Madison 24 3.7 0.603 Coastal Carolina 14 - James Madison 56 38
Duke 28 - Pittsburgh 20 10.1 0.718 Duke 30 - Pittsburgh 19 -3
East Carolina 21 - Tulsa 14 7.7 0.703 East Carolina 27 - Tulsa 29 9
Florida 31 - Florida State 35 5.4 0.666 Florida 15 - Florida State 24 5
Florida International 17 - Western Kentucky 31 13.4 0.8 Florida International 28 - Western Kentucky 41 -1
Georgia Tech 21 - Georgia 45 22.7 0.876 Georgia Tech 23 - Georgia 31 -16
Hawaii 23 - Colorado State 24 1 0.525 Hawaii 27 - Colorado State 24 -4
Illinois 23 - Northwestern 24 0.1 0.504 Illinois 43 - Northwestern 45 1
Kansas State 35 - Iowa State 21 12.6 0.777 Kansas State 35 - Iowa State 42 21
Kent State 13 - Northern Illinois 28 15.1 0.808 Kent State 27 - Northern Illinois 37 -5
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Louisiana Monroe 17 16 0.82 Louisiana Lafayette 52 - Louisiana Monroe 21 -14
Louisiana State 42 - Texas AM 35 7 0.679 Louisiana State 42 - Texas AM 30 -5
Louisville 31 - Kentucky 24 7.7 0.69 Louisville 31 - Kentucky 38 14
Marshall 28 - Arkansas State 27 0.3 0.507 Marshall 35 - Arkansas State 21 -13
Massachusetts 31 - Connecticut 24 5.1 0.636 Massachusetts 18 - Connecticut 31 20
Michigan 31 - Ohio State 27 2.6 0.58 Michigan 30 - Ohio State 24 -2
Michigan State 13 - Penn State 35 24.4 0.959 Michigan State 0 - Penn State 42 20
Minnesota 21 - Wisconsin 24 1 0.528 Minnesota 14 - Wisconsin 28 11
Miss State 24 - Mississippi 34 8.5 0.737 Miss State 7 - Mississippi 17 0
NC State 34 - North Carolina 31 3 0.587 NC State 39 - North Carolina 20 -16
Nebraska 13 - Iowa 17 3 0.59 Nebraska 10 - Iowa 13 -1
Nevada 17 - Wyoming 24 7.4 0.705 Nevada 6 - Wyoming 42 29
Nevada Las Vegas 28 - San Jose State 27 2.7 0.564 Nevada Las Vegas 31 - San Jose State 37 7
New Mexico 27 - Utah State 31 3.8 0.596 New Mexico 41 - Utah State 44 -1
New Mexico St 21 - Jacksonville State 20 1 0.525 New Mexico St 20 - Jacksonville State 17 -2
North Texas 34 - Alabama Birmingham 28 5.1 0.649 North Texas 45 - Alabama Birmingham 42 3
Oklahoma 41 - Texas Christian 27 13.1 0.747 Oklahoma 69 - Texas Christian 45 -10
Oklahoma State 35 - Brigham Young 24 13.9 0.748 Oklahoma State 40 - Brigham Young 34 5
Old Dominion 24 - Georgia State 20 5.1 0.655 Old Dominion 25 - Georgia State 24 3
Oregon 38 - Oregon State 27 12.6 0.796 Oregon 31 - Oregon State 7 -13
Purdue 35 - Indiana 28 6.8 0.682 Purdue 35 - Indiana 31 3
Rice 24 - Florida Atlantic 20 5.4 0.628 Rice 24 - Florida Atlantic 21 1
Rutgers 24 - Maryland 27 1.2 0.53 Rutgers 24 - Maryland 42 15
Sam Houston State 20 - Middle Tennessee 24 3.9 0.61 Sam Houston State 23 - Middle Tennessee 20 -7
San Diego State 17 - Fresno State 21 5.6 0.646 San Diego State 33 - Fresno State 18 -19
South Carolina 24 - Clemson 28 3.9 0.606 South Carolina 7 - Clemson 16 5
South Florida 28 - Charlotte 24 4.2 0.597 South Florida 48 - Charlotte 14 -30
Southern Methodist 28 - Navy 10 18.2 0.817 Southern Methodist 59 - Navy 14 -27
Southern Miss 13 - Troy 31 16.5 0.836 Southern Miss 17 - Troy 35 0
Stanford 17 - Notre Dame 41 21.8 0.862 Stanford 23 - Notre Dame 56 9
Syracuse 23 - Wake Forest 24 0.1 0.505 Syracuse 35 - Wake Forest 31 -5
Temple 21 - Memphis 41 17.3 0.832 Temple 21 - Memphis 45 4
Tennessee 42 - Vanderbilt 17 24.7 0.888 Tennessee 48 - Vanderbilt 24 1
Texas 35 - Texas Tech 21 14 0.807 Texas 57 - Texas Tech 7 -36
Texas El Paso 17 - Liberty 34 16.6 0.915 Texas El Paso 28 - Liberty 42 -3
Texas State 20 - South Alabama 28 8.7 0.671 Texas State 52 - South Alabama 44 -16
Tulane 24 - Texas San Antonio 21 2.7 0.576 Tulane 29 - Texas San Antonio 16 -10
UCLA 34 - California 24 9.6 0.743 UCLA 7 - California 33 36
Utah 38 - Colorado 21 17.9 0.793 Utah 23 - Colorado 17 11
Virginia 31 - Virginia Tech 28 1.6 0.534 Virginia 17 - Virginia Tech 55 41
Washington 41 - Washington State 24 14.9 0.778 Washington 24 - Washington State 21 14
Western Michigan 25 - Bowling Green 24 1.4 0.53 Western Michigan 10 - Bowling Green 34 25


Number of FBS Games: 65
Number Correct: 51 = 78.4%
Expected Number Correct: 45.003 = 69.2%
Average Error: 11.95
Average Signed Error: 2.78

WEEK 14

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Florida State 31 - Louisville 24 5.7 0.64 Florida State 16 - Louisville 6 -3
Georgia 31 - Alabama 28 3 0.57 Georgia 24 - Alabama 27 6
Liberty 31 - New Mexico St 20 11.6 0.774 Liberty 49 - New Mexico St 35 -3
Michigan 28 - Iowa 10 17 0.892 Michigan 26 - Iowa 0 -8
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Boise State 28 2.1 0.548 Nevada Las Vegas 20 - Boise State 44 23
Texas 38 - Oklahoma State 24 12.2 0.735 Texas 49 - Oklahoma State 21 -14
Toledo 20 - Miami OH 17 1.8 0.561 Toledo 14 - Miami OH 23 12
Troy 27 - Appalachian State 21 5 0.65 Troy 49 - Appalachian State 23 -20
Tulane 21 - Southern Methodist 27 4.3 0.607 Tulane 14 - Southern Methodist 26 6
Washington 28 - Oregon 35 8.2 0.727 Washington 34 - Oregon 31 -10


Number of FBS Games: 10
Number Correct: 7 = 70%
Expected Number Correct: 6.704 = 67%
Average Error: 10.5
Average Signed Error: -1.1

WEEK 15

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Navy 10 - Army 14 3.1 0.558 Navy 11 - Army 17 2

WEEK 16

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 17 - James Madison 24 7.6 0.672 Air Force 31 - James Madison 21 -17
Appalachian State 24 - Miami OH 20 2.5 0.562 Appalachian State 13 - Miami OH 9 0
Boise State 24 - UCLA 21 4 0.584 Boise State 22 - UCLA 35 16
Boston College 21 - Southern Methodist 35 14.9 0.791 Boston College 23 - Southern Methodist 14 -23
Central Florida 34 - Georgia Tech 31 4.5 0.594 Central Florida 17 - Georgia Tech 30 16
Duke 20 - Troy 24 4.2 0.612 Duke 17 - Troy 10 -11
Florida State 24 - Georgia 31 7.9 0.714 Florida State 3 - Georgia 63 53
Fresno State 22 - New Mexico St 21 0 0.5 Fresno State 37 - New Mexico St 10 -26
Kansas State 31 - NC State 24 8.1 0.708 Kansas State 28 - NC State 19 -2
Kentucky 24 - Clemson 28 5.8 0.675 Kentucky 35 - Clemson 38 -1
Louisiana Lafayette 23 - Jacksonville State 24 2.2 0.555 Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Jacksonville State 34 2
Louisiana State 41 - Wisconsin 27 14.3 0.795 Louisiana State 35 - Wisconsin 31 10
Marshall 20 - Texas San Antonio 27 6.5 0.666 Marshall 17 - Texas San Antonio 35 11
Maryland 27 - Auburn 31 2.6 0.556 Maryland 31 - Auburn 13 -22
Memphis 28 - Iowa State 34 6.1 0.679 Memphis 36 - Iowa State 26 -16
Miami FL 28 - Rutgers 21 7.9 0.708 Miami FL 24 - Rutgers 31 14
Michigan 31 - Alabama 27 2.7 0.575 Michigan 27 - Alabama 20 -3
Minnesota 27 - Bowling Green 21 5.3 0.642 Minnesota 30 - Bowling Green 24 0
Nevada Las Vegas 28 - Kansas 38 8.5 0.711 Nevada Las Vegas 36 - Kansas 49 3
Northern Illinois 23 - Arkansas State 24 0.4 0.511 Northern Illinois 21 - Arkansas State 19 -3
Northwestern 20 - Utah 27 7.1 0.68 Northwestern 14 - Utah 7 -14
Notre Dame 35 - Oregon State 27 8.3 0.718 Notre Dame 40 - Oregon State 8 -24
Ohio 24 - Georgia Southern 21 4.2 0.606 Ohio 41 - Georgia Southern 21 -17
Ohio State 34 - Missouri 24 8.9 0.739 Ohio State 3 - Missouri 14 21
Oklahoma 41 - Arizona 34 8.5 0.678 Oklahoma 24 - Arizona 38 21
Oklahoma State 28 - Texas AM 38 7.2 0.668 Oklahoma State 31 - Texas AM 23 -18
Old Dominion 21 - Western Kentucky 24 4 0.639 Old Dominion 35 - Western Kentucky 38 0
Oregon 41 - Liberty 27 13.4 0.822 Oregon 45 - Liberty 6 -25
Penn State 34 - Mississippi 21 10.5 0.767 Penn State 25 - Mississippi 38 26
Rice 31 - Texas State 27 2.6 0.55 Rice 21 - Texas State 45 28
San Jose State 28 - Coastal Carolina 21 6.9 0.668 San Jose State 14 - Coastal Carolina 24 17
South Alabama 28 - Eastern Michigan 13 17 0.793 South Alabama 59 - Eastern Michigan 10 -34
Southern California 35 - Louisville 38 3.2 0.569 Southern California 42 - Louisville 28 -17
Syracuse 34 - South Florida 24 7.4 0.657 Syracuse 0 - South Florida 45 55
Tennessee 21 - Iowa 17 4.4 0.618 Tennessee 35 - Iowa 0 -31
Texas Tech 32 - California 31 0.7 0.519 Texas Tech 34 - California 14 -19
Tulane 21 - Virginia Tech 24 2.4 0.55 Tulane 20 - Virginia Tech 41 18
Utah State 31 - Georgia State 28 1.4 0.535 Utah State 22 - Georgia State 45 26
Washington 28 - Texas 35 6.5 0.675 Washington 37 - Texas 31 -13
West Virginia 35 - North Carolina 38 0.8 0.523 West Virginia 30 - North Carolina 10 -23
Wyoming 20 - Toledo 21 0.3 0.511 Wyoming 16 - Toledo 15 -2

WEEK 17

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Michigan 35 - Washington 24 10.9 0.777 Michigan 34 - Washington 13 -10


Number of FBS Games: 43
Number Correct: 21 = 48.8%
Expected Number Correct: 27.63 = 64.2%
Average Error: 16.51
Average Signed Error: -0.75