WEEK 1

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - FCS Team 10 28.6 Air Force 35 - FCS Team 14
Arizona State 48 - FCS Team 14 33.1 Arizona State 41 - FCS Team 14
Arkansas 31 - Rice 17 14.4 0.793 Arkansas 38 - Rice 17 -7
Arkansas State 42 - FCS Team 20 22.3 Arkansas State 40 - FCS Team 21
Auburn 41 - Akron 3 37 0.986 Auburn 60 - Akron 10 -12
Ball State 42 - FCS Team 17 26.8 Ball State 31 - FCS Team 21
Boston College 41 - FCS Team 14 26.2 Boston College 51 - FCS Team 0
Brigham Young 35 - Arizona 20 16.2 0.818 Brigham Young 24 - Arizona 16 7
Buffalo 42 - FCS Team 13 29.8 Buffalo 69 - FCS Team 7
California 24 - Nevada 20 4.6 0.642 California 17 - Nevada 22 9
Central Florida 38 - Boise State 31 5.6 0.667 Central Florida 36 - Boise State 31 2
Charlotte 24 - Duke 28 5.4 0.604 Charlotte 31 - Duke 28 -7
Cincinnati 27 - Miami OH 14 11 0.753 Cincinnati 49 - Miami OH 14 -22
Coastal Carolina 41 - FCS Team 14 27 Coastal Carolina 52 - FCS Team 14
Colorado 41 - FCS Team 17 25.3 Colorado 35 - FCS Team 7
Colorado State 38 - FCS Team 20 19.3 Colorado State 23 - FCS Team 42
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 24 5.8 Connecticut 28 - FCS Team 38
East Carolina 21 - Appalachian State 35 14.8 0.8 East Carolina 19 - Appalachian State 33 0
Eastern Michigan 42 - FCS Team 17 24.3 Eastern Michigan 35 - FCS Team 15
FCS Team 13 - Alabama Birmingham 34 20.2 FCS Team 0 - Alabama Birmingham 31
Florida 38 - Florida Atlantic 17 22.2 0.9 Florida 35 - Florida Atlantic 14 0
Florida International 34 - FCS Team 21 13 Florida International 48 - FCS Team 10
Florida State 21 - Notre Dame 34 12 0.765 Florida State 38 - Notre Dame 41 -10
Fresno State 38 - Connecticut 17 19.5 0.904 Fresno State 45 - Connecticut 0 -24
Georgia 24 - Clemson 34 8.4 0.716 Georgia 10 - Clemson 3 -17
Georgia Southern 35 - FCS Team 13 23.1 Georgia Southern 30 - FCS Team 25
Georgia State 21 - Army 24 0.8 0.522 Georgia State 10 - Army 43 30
Georgia Tech 31 - Northern Illinois 27 4.1 0.602 Georgia Tech 21 - Northern Illinois 22 5
Hawaii 38 - FCS Team 17 21.6 Hawaii 49 - FCS Team 35
Illinois 27 - Nebraska 31 4 0.591 Illinois 30 - Nebraska 22 -12
Illinois 28 - Texas San Antonio 21 7.4 0.684 Illinois 30 - Texas San Antonio 37 14
Iowa 28 - Indiana 20 10 0.763 Iowa 34 - Indiana 6 -20
Iowa State 48 - FCS Team 7 39.4 Iowa State 16 - FCS Team 10
Kansas 41 - FCS Team 24 16.9 Kansas 17 - FCS Team 14
Kentucky 38 - Louisiana Monroe 17 20.4 0.852 Kentucky 45 - Louisiana Monroe 10 -14
Liberty 42 - FCS Team 17 24.9 Liberty 48 - FCS Team 7
Maryland 24 - West Virginia 31 6.2 0.64 Maryland 30 - West Virginia 24 -13
Memphis 45 - FCS Team 17 29.1 Memphis 42 - FCS Team 17
Miami FL 20 - Alabama 45 25.7 0.923 Miami FL 13 - Alabama 44 6
Michigan 38 - Western Michigan 31 6.9 0.681 Michigan 47 - Western Michigan 14 -26
Middle Tennessee 38 - FCS Team 20 17.6 Middle Tennessee 50 - FCS Team 15
Minnesota 24 - Ohio State 42 17 0.815 Minnesota 31 - Ohio State 45 -4
Miss State 34 - Louisiana Tech 17 14.2 0.792 Miss State 35 - Louisiana Tech 34 16
Mississippi 41 - Louisville 35 3.8 0.592 Mississippi 43 - Louisville 24 -13
Missouri 34 - Central Michigan 24 8.1 0.696 Missouri 34 - Central Michigan 24 0
Navy 20 - Marshall 17 4 0.617 Navy 7 - Marshall 49 45
NC State 35 - South Florida 24 11.1 0.773 NC State 45 - South Florida 0 -34
Nebraska 42 - FCS Team 14 27.5 Nebraska 52 - FCS Team 7
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - FCS Team 21 12.4 Nevada Las Vegas 33 - FCS Team 35
New Mexico 35 - FCS Team 20 15.3 New Mexico 27 - FCS Team 17
New Mexico St 31 - Texas El Paso 24 8.1 0.748 New Mexico St 3 - Texas El Paso 30 34
North Texas 38 - FCS Team 24 14.3 North Texas 44 - FCS Team 14
Northwestern 27 - Michigan State 14 10.3 0.741 Northwestern 21 - Michigan State 38 30
Ohio 31 - Syracuse 21 9.3 0.729 Ohio 9 - Syracuse 29 30
Oklahoma 49 - Tulane 21 27.7 0.958 Oklahoma 40 - Tulane 35 23
Oklahoma State 49 - FCS Team 13 38.3 Oklahoma State 23 - FCS Team 16
Oregon 38 - Fresno State 21 15.6 0.838 Oregon 31 - Fresno State 24 10
Pittsburgh 42 - Massachusetts 10 31.3 0.987 Pittsburgh 51 - Massachusetts 7 -12
Purdue 35 - Oregon State 31 6.4 0.695 Purdue 30 - Oregon State 21 -5
Rutgers 27 - Temple 21 5.4 0.668 Rutgers 61 - Temple 14 -41
San Diego State 31 - New Mexico St 10 20.5 0.924 San Diego State 28 - New Mexico St 10 3
San Jose State 38 - FCS Team 14 23.7 San Jose State 45 - FCS Team 14
South Alabama 20 - Southern Miss 21 1.3 0.531 South Alabama 31 - Southern Miss 7 -25
South Carolina 38 - FCS Team 17 23.6 South Carolina 46 - FCS Team 0
Southern California 35 - San Jose State 21 13.6 0.828 Southern California 30 - San Jose State 7 -9
Southern Methodist 48 - FCS Team 21 26.1 Southern Methodist 56 - FCS Team 9
Stanford 28 - Kansas State 31 2.9 0.575 Stanford 7 - Kansas State 24 14
Tennessee 38 - Bowling Green 10 27.6 0.952 Tennessee 38 - Bowling Green 6 -4
Texas 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 16.4 0.848 Texas 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 18 -6
Texas AM 45 - Kent State 27 19.1 0.92 Texas AM 41 - Kent State 10 -13
Texas Christian 45 - FCS Team 10 34.8 Texas Christian 45 - FCS Team 3
Texas El Paso 28 - FCS Team 24 3.9 Texas El Paso 38 - FCS Team 28
Texas State 20 - Baylor 35 15 0.818 Texas State 20 - Baylor 29 -6
Texas Tech 38 - Houston 34 5.2 0.639 Texas Tech 38 - Houston 21 -13
Toledo 42 - FCS Team 17 27.2 Toledo 49 - FCS Team 10
Troy 38 - FCS Team 14 23.7 Troy 55 - FCS Team 3
Tulsa 38 - FCS Team 14 25.6 Tulsa 17 - FCS Team 19
UCLA 38 - Hawaii 27 10.2 0.753 UCLA 44 - Hawaii 10 -23
UCLA 31 - Louisiana State 41 8.4 0.722 UCLA 38 - Louisiana State 27 -21
Utah 42 - FCS Team 10 32.4 Utah 40 - FCS Team 17
Vanderbilt 35 - FCS Team 20 15.5 Vanderbilt 3 - FCS Team 23
Virginia 42 - FCS Team 14 26.9 Virginia 43 - FCS Team 0
Virginia Tech 35 - North Carolina 34 0.7 0.517 Virginia Tech 17 - North Carolina 10 -6
Wake Forest 41 - Old Dominion 17 21.2 0.921 Wake Forest 42 - Old Dominion 10 -8
Washington 42 - FCS Team 10 33.1 Washington 7 - FCS Team 13
Washington State 38 - Utah State 24 13.6 0.796 Washington State 23 - Utah State 26 17
Western Kentucky 34 - FCS Team 14 19 Western Kentucky 59 - FCS Team 21
Wisconsin 27 - Penn State 24 2.6 0.565 Wisconsin 10 - Penn State 16 9
Wyoming 35 - FCS Team 10 23.7 Wyoming 19 - FCS Team 16


Number of FBS Games: 50
Number Correct: 35 = 70%
Expected Number Correct: 37.564 = 75.1%
Average Error: 14.62
Average Signed Error: -2.46

WEEK 2

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Temple 28 12.4 0.778 Akron 24 - Temple 45 10
Alabama 62 - FCS Team 3 58.7 Alabama 48 - FCS Team 14
Arizona 24 - San Diego State 21 2.6 0.564 Arizona 14 - San Diego State 38 27
Arizona State 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 28 0.943 Arizona State 37 - Nevada Las Vegas 10 1
Arkansas 28 - Texas 41 10.9 0.765 Arkansas 40 - Texas 21 -32
Arkansas State 31 - Memphis 35 4.8 0.639 Arkansas State 50 - Memphis 55 1
Army 24 - Western Kentucky 14 11 0.76 Army 38 - Western Kentucky 35 7
Auburn 49 - FCS Team 7 42.5 Auburn 62 - FCS Team 0
Baylor 45 - FCS Team 10 32.4 Baylor 66 - FCS Team 7
Boise State 38 - Texas El Paso 10 25.7 0.967 Boise State 54 - Texas El Paso 13 -13
Bowling Green 14 - South Alabama 24 10 0.734 Bowling Green 19 - South Alabama 22 -7
Brigham Young 23 - Utah 24 2.3 0.563 Brigham Young 26 - Utah 17 -10
Central Florida 49 - FCS Team 14 35 Central Florida 63 - FCS Team 14
Central Michigan 35 - FCS Team 17 17.5 Central Michigan 45 - FCS Team 0
Charlotte 31 - FCS Team 17 13.7 Charlotte 38 - FCS Team 10
Cincinnati 42 - FCS Team 10 32.5 Cincinnati 42 - FCS Team 7
Clemson 55 - FCS Team 3 52 Clemson 49 - FCS Team 3
Coastal Carolina 35 - Kansas 24 10.3 0.747 Coastal Carolina 49 - Kansas 22 -16
Colorado 24 - Texas AM 38 13.5 0.813 Colorado 7 - Texas AM 10 -11
Colorado State 28 - Vanderbilt 27 2.7 0.558 Colorado State 21 - Vanderbilt 24 4
Connecticut 10 - Purdue 41 28.6 0.986 Connecticut 0 - Purdue 49 18
Duke 38 - FCS Team 17 21.3 Duke 45 - FCS Team 17
East Carolina 24 - South Carolina 34 8.9 0.726 East Carolina 17 - South Carolina 20 -7
Florida Atlantic 24 - Georgia Southern 20 5 0.622 Florida Atlantic 38 - Georgia Southern 6 -28
Florida International 28 - Texas State 21 7.3 0.709 Florida International 17 - Texas State 23 13
Florida State 45 - FCS Team 14 29.8 Florida State 17 - FCS Team 20
Fresno State 35 - FCS Team 14 22.4 Fresno State 63 - FCS Team 10
Georgia 31 - Alabama Birmingham 6 26 0.952 Georgia 56 - Alabama Birmingham 7 -24
Georgia Tech 38 - FCS Team 17 21.8 Georgia Tech 45 - FCS Team 17
Indiana 45 - FCS Team 10 33.9 Indiana 56 - FCS Team 14
Iowa State 24 - Iowa 27 2.9 0.564 Iowa State 17 - Iowa 27 7
Kansas State 42 - FCS Team 10 34.3 Kansas State 31 - FCS Team 23
Kent State 35 - FCS Team 20 15.8 Kent State 60 - FCS Team 10
Kentucky 31 - Missouri 24 4.5 0.62 Kentucky 35 - Missouri 28 0
Louisiana Lafayette 41 - FCS Team 13 27.6 Louisiana Lafayette 27 - FCS Team 24
Louisiana State 55 - FCS Team 10 44.9 Louisiana State 34 - FCS Team 7
Louisiana Tech 38 - FCS Team 17 23.5 Louisiana Tech 45 - FCS Team 42
Louisville 48 - FCS Team 17 29.1 Louisville 30 - FCS Team 3
Marshall 35 - FCS Team 10 24.9 Marshall 44 - FCS Team 10
Maryland 42 - FCS Team 17 26.9 Maryland 62 - FCS Team 0
Massachusetts 17 - Boston College 41 23.1 0.962 Massachusetts 28 - Boston College 45 -7
Miami FL 24 - Appalachian State 21 2.7 0.562 Miami FL 25 - Appalachian State 23 1
Michigan 31 - Washington 24 7.7 0.697 Michigan 31 - Washington 10 -14
Michigan State 42 - FCS Team 10 33.9 Michigan State 42 - FCS Team 14
Minnesota 38 - Miami OH 17 21.7 0.925 Minnesota 31 - Miami OH 26 16
Miss State 31 - NC State 24 7.6 0.712 Miss State 24 - NC State 10 -7
Mississippi 52 - FCS Team 17 34.9 Mississippi 54 - FCS Team 17
Navy 21 - Air Force 24 3 0.581 Navy 3 - Air Force 23 17
Nebraska 31 - Buffalo 24 7.2 0.683 Nebraska 28 - Buffalo 3 -18
Nevada 35 - FCS Team 14 21.2 Nevada 49 - FCS Team 10
New Mexico 28 - New Mexico St 17 11.9 0.817 New Mexico 34 - New Mexico St 23 0
North Carolina 38 - Georgia State 20 18.8 0.829 North Carolina 59 - Georgia State 17 -24
Northern Illinois 17 - Wyoming 20 3.4 0.597 Northern Illinois 43 - Wyoming 50 4
Northwestern 41 - FCS Team 10 32.3 Northwestern 24 - FCS Team 6
Notre Dame 41 - Toledo 17 22.7 0.905 Notre Dame 32 - Toledo 29 21
Ohio 34 - FCS Team 14 19 Ohio 26 - FCS Team 28
Ohio State 45 - Oregon 24 21.5 0.886 Ohio State 28 - Oregon 35 28
Oklahoma 59 - FCS Team 13 47.7 Oklahoma 76 - FCS Team 0
Oklahoma State 38 - Tulsa 21 17.2 0.861 Oklahoma State 28 - Tulsa 23 12
Old Dominion 27 - FCS Team 20 7.2 Old Dominion 47 - FCS Team 7
Oregon State 35 - Hawaii 27 8.2 0.73 Oregon State 45 - Hawaii 27 -10
Penn State 42 - Ball State 14 28.3 0.97 Penn State 44 - Ball State 13 -3
Rice 21 - Houston 28 7.2 0.702 Rice 7 - Houston 44 30
South Florida 17 - Florida 38 23.6 0.938 South Florida 20 - Florida 42 1
Southern California 35 - Stanford 21 14 0.828 Southern California 28 - Stanford 42 28
Southern Methodist 42 - North Texas 31 12.7 0.772 Southern Methodist 35 - North Texas 12 -12
Southern Miss 31 - FCS Team 14 16.2 Southern Miss 37 - FCS Team 0
Syracuse 31 - Rutgers 24 6.2 0.645 Syracuse 7 - Rutgers 17 17
Tennessee 27 - Pittsburgh 24 1.5 0.538 Tennessee 34 - Pittsburgh 41 10
Texas Christian 31 - California 17 13.1 0.798 Texas Christian 34 - California 32 12
Texas San Antonio 34 - FCS Team 17 18 Texas San Antonio 54 - FCS Team 0
Texas Tech 48 - FCS Team 17 30.6 Texas Tech 28 - FCS Team 22
Troy 28 - Liberty 27 3.1 0.565 Troy 13 - Liberty 21 9
Tulane 42 - FCS Team 14 27.3 Tulane 69 - FCS Team 20
Utah State 38 - FCS Team 17 20.6 Utah State 48 - FCS Team 24
Virginia 35 - Illinois 27 8.5 0.719 Virginia 42 - Illinois 14 -20
Virginia Tech 35 - Middle Tennessee 17 18.7 0.814 Virginia Tech 35 - Middle Tennessee 14 -3
Wake Forest 45 - FCS Team 17 29 Wake Forest 41 - FCS Team 16
Washington State 45 - FCS Team 17 27.7 Washington State 44 - FCS Team 24
West Virginia 45 - FCS Team 13 32.2 West Virginia 66 - FCS Team 0
Western Michigan 38 - FCS Team 17 21.1 Western Michigan 28 - FCS Team 0
Wisconsin 38 - Eastern Michigan 13 26.5 0.976 Wisconsin 34 - Eastern Michigan 7 -2


Number of FBS Games: 45
Number Correct: 35 = 77.7%
Expected Number Correct: 34.022 = 75.6%
Average Error: 12.48
Average Signed Error: 0.57

WEEK 3

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Utah State 14 11.3 0.803 Air Force 45 - Utah State 49 17
Akron 23 - FCS Team 24 1.2 Akron 35 - FCS Team 14
Appalachian State 42 - FCS Team 10 33.4 Appalachian State 44 - FCS Team 10
Arizona 41 - FCS Team 17 21.2 Arizona 19 - FCS Team 21
Arkansas 35 - Georgia Southern 17 17.3 0.792 Arkansas 45 - Georgia Southern 10 -17
Army 38 - Connecticut 6 31.4 0.991 Army 52 - Connecticut 21 1
Boise State 31 - Oklahoma State 34 1.5 0.54 Boise State 20 - Oklahoma State 21 -2
Bowling Green 27 - FCS Team 24 3.3 Bowling Green 27 - FCS Team 10
Brigham Young 28 - Arizona State 27 0.9 0.525 Brigham Young 27 - Arizona State 17 -9
Buffalo 24 - Coastal Carolina 27 1.7 0.541 Buffalo 25 - Coastal Carolina 28 0
California 41 - FCS Team 13 29.7 California 42 - FCS Team 30
Clemson 42 - Georgia Tech 7 34.4 0.982 Clemson 14 - Georgia Tech 8 29
Colorado 24 - Minnesota 27 2 0.551 Colorado 0 - Minnesota 30 27
Duke 21 - Northwestern 31 9.4 0.704 Duke 30 - Northwestern 23 -17
Florida 27 - Alabama 42 15.1 0.822 Florida 29 - Alabama 31 -13
Florida Atlantic 38 - FCS Team 10 28.2 Florida Atlantic 45 - FCS Team 14
Georgia 38 - South Carolina 10 26.8 0.977 Georgia 40 - South Carolina 13 1
Georgia State 27 - Charlotte 24 1.5 0.534 Georgia State 20 - Charlotte 9 -8
Hawaii 28 - San Jose State 24 3.7 0.601 Hawaii 13 - San Jose State 17 8
Houston 45 - FCS Team 14 28.6 Houston 45 - FCS Team 0
Illinois 30 - Maryland 31 1.2 0.527 Illinois 17 - Maryland 20 2
Indiana 28 - Cincinnati 24 2.6 0.58 Indiana 24 - Cincinnati 38 18
Iowa 48 - Kent State 10 35.9 0.99 Iowa 30 - Kent State 7 15
Kansas 24 - Baylor 35 11 0.763 Kansas 7 - Baylor 45 27
Kansas State 31 - Nevada 14 15.1 0.792 Kansas State 38 - Nevada 17 -4
Kentucky 45 - FCS Team 10 33.9 Kentucky 28 - FCS Team 23
Liberty 31 - Old Dominion 10 21 0.983 Liberty 45 - Old Dominion 17 -7
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Ohio 20 10 0.756 Louisiana Lafayette 49 - Ohio 14 -27
Louisiana Monroe 35 - FCS Team 24 9.5 Louisiana Monroe 12 - FCS Team 7
Louisiana State 45 - Central Michigan 17 28.4 0.966 Louisiana State 49 - Central Michigan 21 0
Louisiana Tech 32 - Southern Methodist 31 0.7 0.522 Louisiana Tech 37 - Southern Methodist 39 3
Louisville 34 - Central Florida 38 3.6 0.586 Louisville 42 - Central Florida 35 -11
Marshall 31 - East Carolina 20 13.3 0.769 Marshall 38 - East Carolina 42 15
Massachusetts 24 - Eastern Michigan 35 11.3 0.826 Massachusetts 28 - Eastern Michigan 42 3
Memphis 33 - Miss State 34 0.6 0.521 Memphis 31 - Miss State 29 -3
Miami FL 27 - Michigan State 24 1.3 0.53 Miami FL 17 - Michigan State 38 24
Miami OH 35 - FCS Team 14 20.6 Miami OH 42 - FCS Team 7
Michigan 42 - Northern Illinois 13 29.6 0.982 Michigan 63 - Northern Illinois 10 -24
Mississippi 41 - Tulane 28 11.5 0.778 Mississippi 61 - Tulane 21 -27
Missouri 45 - FCS Team 13 31.7 Missouri 59 - FCS Team 28
NC State 41 - FCS Team 10 29.6 NC State 45 - FCS Team 7
Nevada Las Vegas 14 - Iowa State 38 24.8 0.947 Nevada Las Vegas 3 - Iowa State 48 21
New Mexico St 27 - FCS Team 21 5.4 New Mexico St 43 - FCS Team 35
North Carolina 34 - Virginia 31 3.2 0.576 North Carolina 59 - Virginia 39 -17
North Texas 24 - Alabama Birmingham 28 5.4 0.647 North Texas 6 - Alabama Birmingham 40 30
Notre Dame 35 - Purdue 24 12.1 0.785 Notre Dame 27 - Purdue 13 -3
Ohio State 45 - Tulsa 21 24.9 0.945 Ohio State 41 - Tulsa 20 3
Oklahoma 45 - Nebraska 24 20.1 0.858 Oklahoma 23 - Nebraska 16 14
Oregon 49 - FCS Team 10 39.9 Oregon 48 - FCS Team 7
Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 17 26.5 Oregon State 42 - FCS Team 10
Penn State 31 - Auburn 24 8.5 0.728 Penn State 28 - Auburn 20 -1
Pittsburgh 38 - Western Michigan 24 15 0.821 Pittsburgh 41 - Western Michigan 44 17
Rutgers 38 - FCS Team 13 24.5 Rutgers 45 - FCS Team 13
San Diego State 17 - Utah 24 6.5 0.685 San Diego State 33 - Utah 31 -9
South Alabama 28 - FCS Team 17 11.6 South Alabama 28 - FCS Team 21
South Florida 38 - FCS Team 20 17.3 South Florida 38 - FCS Team 17
Southern Miss 17 - Troy 24 6.9 0.659 Southern Miss 9 - Troy 21 5
Syracuse 38 - FCS Team 14 24.5 Syracuse 62 - FCS Team 24
Temple 27 - Boston College 34 6.4 0.687 Temple 3 - Boston College 28 18
Tennessee 42 - FCS Team 13 30.6 Tennessee 56 - FCS Team 0
Texas 41 - Rice 10 31.1 0.961 Texas 58 - Rice 0 -27
Texas AM 42 - New Mexico 13 30.2 0.991 Texas AM 34 - New Mexico 0 -5
Texas San Antonio 28 - Middle Tennessee 24 3.7 0.607 Texas San Antonio 27 - Middle Tennessee 13 -10
Texas State 31 - FCS Team 20 11.1 Texas State 34 - FCS Team 42
Texas Tech 41 - Florida International 17 22.8 0.936 Texas Tech 54 - Florida International 21 -9
Toledo 31 - Colorado State 24 9.7 0.761 Toledo 6 - Colorado State 22 23
UCLA 35 - Fresno State 24 11.9 0.799 UCLA 37 - Fresno State 40 14
Vanderbilt 21 - Stanford 31 9.7 0.739 Vanderbilt 23 - Stanford 41 8
Wake Forest 35 - Florida State 31 4.3 0.623 Wake Forest 35 - Florida State 14 -17
Washington 38 - Arkansas State 21 16.1 0.881 Washington 52 - Arkansas State 3 -32
Washington State 28 - Southern California 35 6.1 0.679 Washington State 14 - Southern California 45 24
West Virginia 26 - Virginia Tech 27 0.1 0.505 West Virginia 27 - Virginia Tech 21 -7
Wyoming 34 - Ball State 24 8.7 0.751 Wyoming 45 - Ball State 12 -23


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 38 = 73%
Expected Number Correct: 38.805 = 74.6%
Average Error: 13.38
Average Signed Error: 0.73

WEEK 4

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 23 - Florida Atlantic 24 0.2 0.508 Air Force 31 - Florida Atlantic 7 -25
Alabama 49 - Southern Miss 3 48.4 0.992 Alabama 63 - Southern Miss 14 -3
Appalachian State 31 - Marshall 17 11.9 0.77 Appalachian State 31 - Marshall 30 13
Arizona State 27 - Colorado 17 9.1 0.725 Arizona State 35 - Colorado 13 -12
Army 28 - Miami OH 24 6.5 0.683 Army 23 - Miami OH 10 -9
Auburn 41 - Georgia State 10 30 0.968 Auburn 34 - Georgia State 24 21
Ball State 24 - Toledo 27 1.9 0.545 Ball State 12 - Toledo 22 7
Baylor 24 - Iowa State 31 5.3 0.652 Baylor 31 - Iowa State 29 -9
Boston College 26 - Missouri 27 0.5 0.52 Boston College 41 - Missouri 34 -8
Brigham Young 35 - South Florida 14 21 0.887 Brigham Young 35 - South Florida 27 13
Central Michigan 31 - Florida International 24 6.4 0.702 Central Michigan 31 - Florida International 27 3
Charlotte 21 - Middle Tennessee 20 0 0.5 Charlotte 42 - Middle Tennessee 39 -2
Coastal Carolina 42 - Massachusetts 17 25.1 0.983 Coastal Carolina 53 - Massachusetts 3 -25
Connecticut 13 - Wyoming 41 27 0.983 Connecticut 22 - Wyoming 24 -26
Duke 38 - Kansas 21 15.3 0.777 Duke 52 - Kansas 33 -2
East Carolina 41 - FCS Team 20 20.4 East Carolina 31 - FCS Team 28
Eastern Michigan 28 - Texas State 20 9 0.773 Eastern Michigan 59 - Texas State 21 -30
Florida 38 - Tennessee 21 17.1 0.863 Florida 38 - Tennessee 14 -7
Florida State 34 - Louisville 35 2 0.549 Florida State 23 - Louisville 31 7
Fresno State 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 22.6 0.963 Fresno State 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 30 13
Georgia Southern 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 7.5 0.694 Georgia Southern 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 1
Georgia Tech 27 - North Carolina 35 8.8 0.708 Georgia Tech 45 - North Carolina 22 -31
Houston 28 - Navy 14 14.7 0.804 Houston 28 - Navy 20 6
Iowa 35 - Colorado State 10 26.4 0.953 Iowa 24 - Colorado State 14 15
Louisiana Monroe 17 - Troy 28 11.2 0.762 Louisiana Monroe 29 - Troy 16 -24
Louisiana Tech 35 - North Texas 17 17.2 0.841 Louisiana Tech 24 - North Texas 17 11
Maryland 34 - Kent State 24 11.8 0.761 Maryland 37 - Kent State 16 -11
Memphis 38 - Texas San Antonio 24 13.1 0.816 Memphis 28 - Texas San Antonio 31 17
Miami FL 42 - FCS Team 10 33.4 Miami FL 69 - FCS Team 0
Michigan 42 - Rutgers 13 28.1 0.951 Michigan 20 - Rutgers 13 22
Michigan State 31 - Nebraska 21 8.2 0.703 Michigan State 23 - Nebraska 20 7
Minnesota 45 - Bowling Green 6 39.6 0.989 Minnesota 10 - Bowling Green 14 43
Miss State 27 - Louisiana State 34 6.3 0.674 Miss State 25 - Louisiana State 28 -4
NC State 14 - Clemson 31 15.8 0.795 NC State 27 - Clemson 21 -23
New Mexico St 17 - Hawaii 28 10.1 0.761 New Mexico St 21 - Hawaii 41 9
Northern Illinois 41 - FCS Team 20 21 Northern Illinois 41 - FCS Team 14
Northwestern 31 - Ohio 14 18.5 0.855 Northwestern 35 - Ohio 6 -12
Ohio State 62 - Akron 6 57 0.992 Ohio State 59 - Akron 7 4
Oklahoma 41 - West Virginia 27 14.3 0.801 Oklahoma 16 - West Virginia 13 11
Oklahoma State 28 - Kansas State 27 1.7 0.542 Oklahoma State 31 - Kansas State 20 -10
Old Dominion 17 - Buffalo 27 9.1 0.759 Old Dominion 34 - Buffalo 35 -9
Oregon 42 - Arizona 17 25.1 0.918 Oregon 41 - Arizona 19 3
Penn State 52 - FCS Team 3 47.4 Penn State 38 - FCS Team 17
Pittsburgh 48 - FCS Team 14 33.1 Pittsburgh 77 - FCS Team 7
Purdue 34 - Illinois 21 10.1 0.748 Purdue 13 - Illinois 9 9
Rice 28 - FCS Team 20 9.7 Rice 48 - FCS Team 34
San Diego State 38 - FCS Team 10 28.3 San Diego State 48 - FCS Team 21
South Carolina 24 - Kentucky 27 1.1 0.53 South Carolina 10 - Kentucky 16 3
Southern California 41 - Oregon State 27 14.1 0.843 Southern California 27 - Oregon State 45 32
Stanford 35 - UCLA 31 5.2 0.666 Stanford 24 - UCLA 35 15
Syracuse 25 - Liberty 24 0.9 0.527 Syracuse 24 - Liberty 21 -2
Temple 34 - FCS Team 17 16.3 Temple 41 - FCS Team 7
Texas 41 - Texas Tech 28 11.8 0.756 Texas 70 - Texas Tech 35 -22
Texas AM 34 - Arkansas 27 8.2 0.709 Texas AM 10 - Arkansas 20 17
Texas Christian 41 - Southern Methodist 24 15.1 0.873 Texas Christian 34 - Southern Methodist 42 25
Texas El Paso 21 - New Mexico 24 2.9 0.582 Texas El Paso 20 - New Mexico 13 -10
Tulane 31 - Alabama Birmingham 24 6.8 0.678 Tulane 21 - Alabama Birmingham 28 14
Tulsa 41 - Arkansas State 24 14.5 0.839 Tulsa 41 - Arkansas State 34 10
Utah 35 - Washington State 21 13.9 0.839 Utah 24 - Washington State 13 3
Utah State 24 - Boise State 35 9.9 0.759 Utah State 3 - Boise State 27 13
Vanderbilt 14 - Georgia 38 24.7 0.955 Vanderbilt 0 - Georgia 62 38
Virginia 35 - Wake Forest 34 1.8 0.543 Virginia 17 - Wake Forest 37 21
Virginia Tech 45 - FCS Team 7 36.7 Virginia Tech 21 - FCS Team 10
Washington 31 - California 14 17.1 0.873 Washington 31 - California 24 10
Western Kentucky 21 - Indiana 31 10.1 0.767 Western Kentucky 31 - Indiana 33 -8
Western Michigan 34 - San Jose State 21 11.3 0.786 Western Michigan 23 - San Jose State 3 -7
Wisconsin 27 - Notre Dame 21 3.6 0.592 Wisconsin 13 - Notre Dame 41 34


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 42 = 72.4%
Expected Number Correct: 44.287 = 76.3%
Average Error: 13.81
Average Signed Error: 2.39

WEEK 5

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Ohio 31 12.2 0.783 Akron 17 - Ohio 34 3
Alabama 49 - Mississippi 34 16.5 0.852 Alabama 42 - Mississippi 21 -6
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Liberty 21 3.9 0.618 Alabama Birmingham 12 - Liberty 36 27
Ball State 17 - Army 31 12.6 0.783 Ball State 28 - Army 16 -26
Boise State 34 - Nevada 17 17.9 0.856 Boise State 31 - Nevada 41 27
Buffalo 24 - Western Michigan 28 3.4 0.597 Buffalo 17 - Western Michigan 24 3
California 31 - Washington State 20 10.7 0.776 California 6 - Washington State 21 26
Clemson 38 - Boston College 13 23.8 0.923 Clemson 19 - Boston College 13 19
Coastal Carolina 35 - Louisiana Monroe 20 16.3 0.811 Coastal Carolina 59 - Louisiana Monroe 6 -38
Colorado 21 - Southern California 28 7.5 0.691 Colorado 14 - Southern California 37 16
East Carolina 31 - Tulane 34 1.1 0.529 East Carolina 52 - Tulane 29 -26
Florida Atlantic 31 - Florida International 10 19.3 0.859 Florida Atlantic 58 - Florida International 21 -16
Florida State 31 - Syracuse 24 6.5 0.695 Florida State 33 - Syracuse 30 4
Georgia 41 - Arkansas 20 22 0.885 Georgia 37 - Arkansas 0 -16
Georgia Southern 31 - Arkansas State 27 4 0.593 Georgia Southern 59 - Arkansas State 33 -22
Georgia State 17 - Appalachian State 31 13.3 0.797 Georgia State 16 - Appalachian State 45 15
Georgia Tech 34 - Pittsburgh 31 2.1 0.541 Georgia Tech 21 - Pittsburgh 52 34
Hawaii 24 - Fresno State 31 7.6 0.716 Hawaii 27 - Fresno State 24 -10
Illinois 31 - Charlotte 17 12.7 0.78 Illinois 24 - Charlotte 14 4
Iowa State 45 - Kansas 14 31.5 0.984 Iowa State 59 - Kansas 7 -21
Kansas State 28 - Oklahoma 31 3.7 0.606 Kansas State 31 - Oklahoma 37 3
Kent State 27 - Bowling Green 17 9.8 0.718 Kent State 27 - Bowling Green 20 3
Kentucky 24 - Florida 31 5.3 0.655 Kentucky 20 - Florida 13 -14
Louisiana State 34 - Auburn 28 6.1 0.684 Louisiana State 19 - Auburn 24 11
Maryland 20 - Iowa 31 12.1 0.773 Maryland 14 - Iowa 51 26
Massachusetts 17 - Toledo 35 17.9 0.851 Massachusetts 7 - Toledo 45 20
Miami FL 34 - Virginia 28 4.4 0.606 Miami FL 28 - Virginia 30 8
Miami OH 27 - Central Michigan 20 8.2 0.742 Miami OH 28 - Central Michigan 17 -4
Michigan State 35 - Western Kentucky 20 14.8 0.817 Michigan State 48 - Western Kentucky 31 -2
Middle Tennessee 24 - Marshall 31 7.2 0.704 Middle Tennessee 34 - Marshall 28 -13
Missouri 31 - Tennessee 28 2.2 0.564 Missouri 24 - Tennessee 62 41
Navy 21 - Central Florida 35 14.1 0.815 Navy 34 - Central Florida 30 -18
NC State 35 - Louisiana Tech 20 16.2 0.796 NC State 34 - Louisiana Tech 27 8
Nebraska 27 - Northwestern 20 5.5 0.652 Nebraska 56 - Northwestern 7 -42
New Mexico 14 - Air Force 31 16 0.87 New Mexico 10 - Air Force 38 11
North Carolina 42 - Duke 31 12.8 0.743 North Carolina 38 - Duke 7 -20
Northern Illinois 34 - Eastern Michigan 31 1.2 0.528 Northern Illinois 27 - Eastern Michigan 20 -4
Notre Dame 35 - Cincinnati 27 7.7 0.714 Notre Dame 13 - Cincinnati 24 19
Oklahoma State 31 - Baylor 24 8.9 0.733 Oklahoma State 24 - Baylor 14 -3
Oregon State 27 - Washington 34 8.2 0.723 Oregon State 27 - Washington 24 -10
Penn State 35 - Indiana 21 14.2 0.826 Penn State 24 - Indiana 0 -10
Purdue 27 - Minnesota 21 5.4 0.643 Purdue 13 - Minnesota 20 13
Rice 20 - Southern Miss 21 1.3 0.529 Rice 24 - Southern Miss 19 -6
Rutgers 24 - Ohio State 35 12.9 0.787 Rutgers 13 - Ohio State 52 28
San Jose State 27 - New Mexico St 10 16.9 0.892 San Jose State 37 - New Mexico St 31 11
South Alabama 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 9 0.741 South Alabama 18 - Louisiana Lafayette 20 -8
South Carolina 27 - Troy 10 15.7 0.816 South Carolina 23 - Troy 14 8
Southern Methodist 38 - South Florida 28 10.6 0.763 Southern Methodist 41 - South Florida 17 -14
Stanford 28 - Oregon 31 4.1 0.637 Stanford 31 - Oregon 24 -10
Temple 27 - Memphis 38 11.3 0.806 Temple 34 - Memphis 31 -14
Texas AM 28 - Miss State 20 7.8 0.71 Texas AM 22 - Miss State 26 12
Texas Christian 31 - Texas 38 9 0.723 Texas Christian 27 - Texas 32 -2
Texas El Paso 25 - Old Dominion 24 0.3 0.516 Texas El Paso 28 - Old Dominion 21 -6
Texas San Antonio 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 12.6 0.806 Texas San Antonio 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 7
Tulsa 31 - Houston 27 5 0.647 Tulsa 10 - Houston 45 39
UCLA 34 - Arizona State 28 4.3 0.638 UCLA 23 - Arizona State 42 25
Utah State 21 - Brigham Young 28 6.4 0.691 Utah State 20 - Brigham Young 34 7
Vanderbilt 35 - Connecticut 17 17.1 0.819 Vanderbilt 30 - Connecticut 28 16
Wake Forest 38 - Louisville 31 7.1 0.706 Wake Forest 37 - Louisville 34 4
West Virginia 38 - Texas Tech 28 8.6 0.734 West Virginia 20 - Texas Tech 23 13
Wisconsin 20 - Michigan 28 7.7 0.679 Wisconsin 17 - Michigan 38 13


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 38 = 62.2%
Expected Number Correct: 44.472 = 72.9%
Average Error: 14.83
Average Signed Error: 2.34

WEEK 6

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 31 - Wyoming 21 8.7 0.701 Air Force 24 - Wyoming 14 0
Alabama Birmingham 20 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.7 0.521 Alabama Birmingham 31 - Florida Atlantic 14 -18
Arizona 27 - UCLA 38 9.9 0.75 Arizona 16 - UCLA 34 7
Arizona State 34 - Stanford 27 6.9 0.703 Arizona State 28 - Stanford 10 -11
Arkansas State 27 - Coastal Carolina 42 16.1 0.825 Arkansas State 20 - Coastal Carolina 52 17
Auburn 20 - Georgia 34 14.4 0.811 Auburn 10 - Georgia 34 10
Baylor 24 - West Virginia 21 3.9 0.608 Baylor 45 - West Virginia 20 -22
Bowling Green 31 - Akron 13 17.3 0.806 Bowling Green 20 - Akron 35 33
Brigham Young 27 - Boise State 24 2.2 0.55 Brigham Young 17 - Boise State 26 12
Central Florida 42 - East Carolina 34 10.1 0.745 Central Florida 20 - East Carolina 16 4
Cincinnati 41 - Temple 10 28.9 0.978 Cincinnati 52 - Temple 3 -18
Colorado State 27 - San Jose State 13 14.6 0.796 Colorado State 32 - San Jose State 14 -4
Duke 27 - Georgia Tech 31 4.9 0.603 Duke 27 - Georgia Tech 31 0
Eastern Michigan 24 - Miami OH 21 2.4 0.574 Eastern Michigan 13 - Miami OH 12 2
Florida 45 - Vanderbilt 14 28.4 0.948 Florida 42 - Vanderbilt 0 -11
Florida International 24 - Charlotte 27 3.6 0.63 Florida International 33 - Charlotte 45 9
Illinois 17 - Wisconsin 28 10.6 0.736 Illinois 0 - Wisconsin 24 13
Iowa 27 - Penn State 21 4.5 0.639 Iowa 23 - Penn State 20 3
Kent State 24 - Buffalo 27 3.7 0.611 Kent State 48 - Buffalo 38 -13
Kentucky 28 - Louisiana State 27 2.3 0.563 Kentucky 42 - Louisiana State 21 -20
Liberty 34 - Middle Tennessee 20 14.4 0.804 Liberty 41 - Middle Tennessee 13 -14
Louisiana Monroe 26 - Georgia State 27 0.6 0.516 Louisiana Monroe 21 - Georgia State 55 33
Louisville 38 - Virginia 34 6.2 0.68 Louisville 33 - Virginia 34 5
Marshall 34 - Old Dominion 17 15.3 0.807 Marshall 20 - Old Dominion 13 10
Massachusetts 26 - Connecticut 27 0.1 0.506 Massachusetts 27 - Connecticut 13 -15
Mississippi 38 - Arkansas 31 8.1 0.712 Mississippi 52 - Arkansas 51 6
Missouri 38 - North Texas 21 17.9 0.835 Missouri 48 - North Texas 35 4
Navy 27 - Southern Methodist 31 3.6 0.598 Navy 24 - Southern Methodist 31 3
Nebraska 24 - Michigan 34 9.3 0.702 Nebraska 29 - Michigan 32 -7
Nevada 38 - New Mexico St 17 23.3 0.942 Nevada 55 - New Mexico St 28 -6
North Carolina 38 - Florida State 28 8.2 0.705 North Carolina 25 - Florida State 35 20
Ohio 24 - Central Michigan 21 2.4 0.566 Ohio 27 - Central Michigan 30 6
Ohio State 48 - Maryland 24 25.3 0.892 Ohio State 66 - Maryland 17 -25
Rutgers 24 - Michigan State 28 6.4 0.655 Rutgers 13 - Michigan State 31 14
San Diego State 31 - New Mexico 10 22 0.961 San Diego State 31 - New Mexico 7 -3
Southern California 31 - Utah 27 5 0.67 Southern California 26 - Utah 42 20
Southern Miss 24 - Texas El Paso 20 3.5 0.603 Southern Miss 13 - Texas El Paso 26 17
Syracuse 24 - Wake Forest 34 8.3 0.735 Syracuse 37 - Wake Forest 40 -7
Tennessee 31 - South Carolina 21 7.8 0.718 Tennessee 45 - South Carolina 20 -15
Texas 37 - Oklahoma 38 0.3 0.511 Texas 48 - Oklahoma 54 5
Texas AM 24 - Alabama 38 16.6 0.87 Texas AM 41 - Alabama 38 -17
Texas State 14 - South Alabama 21 7.7 0.691 Texas State 33 - South Alabama 31 -9
Texas Tech 36 - Texas Christian 35 0.9 0.524 Texas Tech 31 - Texas Christian 52 22
Toledo 31 - Northern Illinois 21 10.1 0.749 Toledo 20 - Northern Illinois 22 12
Troy 24 - Georgia Southern 21 2.4 0.546 Troy 27 - Georgia Southern 24 0
Tulane 28 - Houston 35 6.6 0.66 Tulane 22 - Houston 40 11
Tulsa 30 - Memphis 31 0.1 0.504 Tulsa 35 - Memphis 29 -7
Virginia Tech 24 - Notre Dame 28 5.6 0.652 Virginia Tech 29 - Notre Dame 32 -1
Washington State 28 - Oregon State 31 2.6 0.566 Washington State 31 - Oregon State 24 -10
Western Kentucky 31 - Texas San Antonio 24 6 0.721 Western Kentucky 46 - Texas San Antonio 52 13
Western Michigan 31 - Ball State 17 13.9 0.79 Western Michigan 20 - Ball State 45 39


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 33 = 64.7%
Expected Number Correct: 35.489 = 69.5%
Average Error: 11.82
Average Signed Error: 1.9

WEEK 7

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 28 - Auburn 31 1 0.527 Arkansas 23 - Auburn 38 12
Baylor 28 - Brigham Young 24 6.1 0.668 Baylor 38 - Brigham Young 24 -10
Boise State 28 - Air Force 21 6 0.675 Boise State 17 - Air Force 24 14
Boston College 26 - NC State 27 0.7 0.522 Boston College 7 - NC State 33 25
Buffalo 28 - Ohio 17 11.4 0.773 Buffalo 27 - Ohio 26 10
Central Michigan 17 - Toledo 28 11 0.771 Central Michigan 26 - Toledo 23 -14
Cincinnati 38 - Central Florida 21 15.2 0.855 Cincinnati 56 - Central Florida 21 -18
Colorado 27 - Arizona 21 5.2 0.65 Colorado 34 - Arizona 0 -28
Connecticut 28 - FCS Team 24 4.8 Connecticut 21 - FCS Team 15
Eastern Michigan 27 - Ball State 24 0.8 0.522 Eastern Michigan 31 - Ball State 38 10
Georgia 35 - Kentucky 14 21.3 0.897 Georgia 30 - Kentucky 13 4
Indiana 24 - Michigan State 28 4.3 0.638 Indiana 15 - Michigan State 20 1
Iowa 34 - Purdue 13 20.6 0.927 Iowa 7 - Purdue 24 38
Kansas 28 - Texas Tech 45 14.5 0.817 Kansas 14 - Texas Tech 41 10
Kansas State 27 - Iowa State 28 1.4 0.535 Kansas State 20 - Iowa State 33 12
Louisiana Lafayette 20 - Appalachian State 24 4.1 0.638 Louisiana Lafayette 41 - Appalachian State 13 -32
Louisiana Monroe 17 - Liberty 38 22.3 0.866 Louisiana Monroe 31 - Liberty 28 -24
Louisiana State 28 - Florida 31 4.4 0.633 Louisiana State 49 - Florida 42 -10
Memphis 31 - Navy 27 3.9 0.601 Memphis 35 - Navy 17 -14
Miami OH 28 - Akron 7 20.8 0.9 Miami OH 34 - Akron 21 8
Minnesota 24 - Nebraska 27 1.8 0.534 Minnesota 30 - Nebraska 23 -10
Miss State 24 - Alabama 41 16.4 0.82 Miss State 9 - Alabama 49 23
Missouri 27 - Texas AM 38 10.2 0.749 Missouri 14 - Texas AM 35 10
Nevada 34 - Hawaii 24 10.7 0.755 Nevada 34 - Hawaii 17 -7
Nevada Las Vegas 21 - Utah State 31 7.1 0.722 Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Utah State 28 -6
New Mexico 13 - Colorado State 27 12.8 0.804 New Mexico 7 - Colorado State 36 15
North Carolina 31 - Miami FL 27 5.6 0.627 North Carolina 45 - Miami FL 42 1
North Texas 20 - Marshall 31 9.5 0.728 North Texas 21 - Marshall 49 17
Northern Illinois 31 - Bowling Green 13 17.9 0.799 Northern Illinois 34 - Bowling Green 26 10
Northwestern 24 - Rutgers 21 1.1 0.524 Northwestern 21 - Rutgers 7 -11
Oklahoma 42 - Texas Christian 31 12.5 0.786 Oklahoma 52 - Texas Christian 31 -10
Old Dominion 27 - Western Kentucky 34 6.4 0.751 Old Dominion 20 - Western Kentucky 43 16
Oregon 34 - California 17 15 0.818 Oregon 24 - California 17 10
San Jose State 13 - San Diego State 24 12.7 0.806 San Jose State 13 - San Diego State 19 -5
South Alabama 21 - Georgia Southern 20 0 0.501 South Alabama 41 - Georgia Southern 14 -26
South Carolina 31 - Vanderbilt 17 15.4 0.825 South Carolina 21 - Vanderbilt 20 13
South Florida 27 - Tulsa 28 1.7 0.538 South Florida 31 - Tulsa 32 0
Southern Miss 13 - Alabama Birmingham 24 12.6 0.792 Southern Miss 0 - Alabama Birmingham 34 23
Syracuse 17 - Clemson 31 13.2 0.78 Syracuse 14 - Clemson 17 -11
Tennessee 42 - Mississippi 41 1.3 0.533 Tennessee 26 - Mississippi 31 6
Texas 35 - Oklahoma State 31 4.6 0.629 Texas 24 - Oklahoma State 32 12
Texas El Paso 20 - Louisiana Tech 27 7.1 0.708 Texas El Paso 19 - Louisiana Tech 3 -23
Texas San Antonio 31 - Rice 14 16 0.865 Texas San Antonio 45 - Rice 0 -28
Texas State 20 - Troy 24 4.5 0.597 Texas State 28 - Troy 31 -1
Utah 28 - Arizona State 27 2.5 0.575 Utah 35 - Arizona State 21 -13
Virginia 38 - Duke 27 12.9 0.778 Virginia 48 - Duke 0 -37
Virginia Tech 30 - Pittsburgh 31 0.1 0.504 Virginia Tech 7 - Pittsburgh 28 20
Washington 34 - UCLA 24 8.3 0.743 Washington 17 - UCLA 24 17
Washington State 28 - Stanford 27 1.5 0.536 Washington State 34 - Stanford 31 -2
Western Michigan 35 - Kent State 24 11.2 0.753 Western Michigan 64 - Kent State 31 -22
Wisconsin 28 - Army 14 14.5 0.795 Wisconsin 20 - Army 14 8
Wyoming 28 - Fresno State 24 5.2 0.618 Wyoming 0 - Fresno State 17 21


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 38 = 74.5%
Expected Number Correct: 35.708 = 70%
Average Error: 14.27
Average Signed Error: 0.07

WEEK 8

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - San Diego State 17 6.9 0.725 Air Force 14 - San Diego State 20 13
Akron 20 - Buffalo 31 10.9 0.746 Akron 10 - Buffalo 45 24
Alabama 48 - Tennessee 24 21.7 0.907 Alabama 52 - Tennessee 24 -4
Alabama Birmingham 28 - Rice 3 24.8 0.922 Alabama Birmingham 24 - Rice 30 31
Appalachian State 27 - Coastal Carolina 24 1.4 0.532 Appalachian State 30 - Coastal Carolina 27 0
Arizona 14 - Washington 34 17.9 0.875 Arizona 16 - Washington 21 -15
Arkansas State 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 38 17.5 0.817 Arkansas State 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 -16
Army 24 - Wake Forest 31 5.9 0.677 Army 56 - Wake Forest 70 7
Ball State 24 - Miami OH 17 6.1 0.66 Ball State 17 - Miami OH 24 14
Bowling Green 20 - Eastern Michigan 27 8.6 0.696 Bowling Green 24 - Eastern Michigan 55 24
California 21 - Colorado 17 3.8 0.61 California 26 - Colorado 3 -19
Central Florida 38 - Memphis 31 6.7 0.697 Central Florida 24 - Memphis 7 -10
Central Michigan 24 - Northern Illinois 27 0.8 0.524 Central Michigan 38 - Northern Illinois 39 -2
Charlotte 20 - Florida Atlantic 27 7 0.703 Charlotte 9 - Florida Atlantic 38 22
Connecticut 21 - Middle Tennessee 31 8.6 0.722 Connecticut 13 - Middle Tennessee 44 21
FCS Team 14 - Arkansas 45 31 FCS Team 3 - Arkansas 45
Florida International 27 - Western Kentucky 41 15.5 0.884 Florida International 19 - Western Kentucky 34 1
Florida State 45 - Massachusetts 13 31.3 0.989 Florida State 59 - Massachusetts 3 -24
Fresno State 31 - Nevada 24 4.3 0.629 Fresno State 34 - Nevada 32 5
Georgia State 31 - Texas State 21 9.7 0.703 Georgia State 28 - Texas State 16 -2
Hawaii 38 - New Mexico St 20 16.6 0.893 Hawaii 48 - New Mexico St 34 4
Houston 35 - East Carolina 24 12.1 0.762 Houston 31 - East Carolina 24 4
Indiana 24 - Ohio State 41 16 0.818 Indiana 7 - Ohio State 54 30
Iowa State 31 - Oklahoma State 27 4.6 0.645 Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma State 21 1
Kansas 21 - Oklahoma 52 32.4 0.99 Kansas 23 - Oklahoma 35 -19
Louisiana Monroe 21 - South Alabama 27 4.7 0.59 Louisiana Monroe 41 - South Alabama 31 -16
Louisiana Tech 23 - Texas San Antonio 24 2.1 0.554 Louisiana Tech 16 - Texas San Antonio 45 28
Louisville 38 - Boston College 27 10.5 0.773 Louisville 28 - Boston College 14 -3
Miami FL 26 - NC State 27 0.5 0.517 Miami FL 31 - NC State 30 -2
Michigan 38 - Northwestern 14 23.3 0.843 Michigan 33 - Northwestern 7 -2
Minnesota 38 - Maryland 20 17.9 0.799 Minnesota 34 - Maryland 16 0
Mississippi 42 - Louisiana State 41 3 0.595 Mississippi 31 - Louisiana State 17 -13
Navy 14 - Cincinnati 35 21.3 0.923 Navy 20 - Cincinnati 27 -14
Nevada Las Vegas 21 - San Jose State 20 1.5 0.545 Nevada Las Vegas 20 - San Jose State 27 8
North Texas 20 - Liberty 34 15.7 0.813 North Texas 26 - Liberty 35 -5
Notre Dame 38 - Southern California 27 11.9 0.752 Notre Dame 31 - Southern California 16 -4
Ohio 31 - Kent State 27 5 0.649 Ohio 27 - Kent State 34 11
Oregon State 28 - Utah 35 5.9 0.675 Oregon State 42 - Utah 34 -15
Penn State 35 - Illinois 10 27 0.963 Penn State 18 - Illinois 20 27
Pittsburgh 23 - Clemson 24 0.2 0.507 Pittsburgh 27 - Clemson 17 -11
Purdue 21 - Wisconsin 20 0.5 0.517 Purdue 13 - Wisconsin 30 18
South Florida 31 - Temple 24 5.3 0.642 South Florida 34 - Temple 14 -13
Southern Methodist 38 - Tulane 28 11.5 0.772 Southern Methodist 55 - Tulane 26 -19
Texas AM 31 - South Carolina 14 15.9 0.846 Texas AM 44 - South Carolina 14 -13
Texas Christian 31 - West Virginia 24 7.2 0.702 Texas Christian 17 - West Virginia 29 19
Texas Tech 28 - Kansas State 35 6.3 0.678 Texas Tech 24 - Kansas State 25 -6
Toledo 26 - Western Michigan 27 0.2 0.506 Toledo 34 - Western Michigan 15 -20
UCLA 32 - Oregon 31 0.2 0.507 UCLA 31 - Oregon 34 4
Utah State 24 - Colorado State 27 2.4 0.565 Utah State 26 - Colorado State 24 -5
Vanderbilt 21 - Miss State 31 11.5 0.755 Vanderbilt 6 - Miss State 45 29
Virginia 35 - Georgia Tech 24 10.8 0.723 Virginia 48 - Georgia Tech 40 3
Virginia Tech 28 - Syracuse 21 6.5 0.688 Virginia Tech 36 - Syracuse 41 12
Washington State 28 - Brigham Young 24 2.4 0.557 Washington State 19 - Brigham Young 21 6
Wyoming 27 - New Mexico 10 17.3 0.836 Wyoming 3 - New Mexico 14 28


Number of FBS Games: 53
Number Correct: 35 = 66%
Expected Number Correct: 37.918 = 71.5%
Average Error: 12.56
Average Signed Error: 2.3

WEEK 9

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 38 - Louisiana Monroe 17 21.1 0.816 Appalachian State 59 - Louisiana Monroe 28 -10
Arizona State 31 - Washington State 24 8 0.71 Arizona State 21 - Washington State 34 20
Auburn 38 - Mississippi 34 4.4 0.658 Auburn 31 - Mississippi 20 -7
Baylor 38 - Texas 34 2.5 0.556 Baylor 31 - Texas 24 -3
Brigham Young 31 - Virginia 28 0.7 0.522 Brigham Young 66 - Virginia 49 -14
Buffalo 31 - Bowling Green 14 17.3 0.8 Buffalo 44 - Bowling Green 56 29
California 27 - Oregon State 28 0.6 0.523 California 39 - Oregon State 25 -15
Clemson 28 - Florida State 20 9.7 0.75 Clemson 30 - Florida State 20 -2
Coastal Carolina 34 - Troy 14 18.5 0.867 Coastal Carolina 35 - Troy 28 13
Colorado State 21 - Boise State 27 3.9 0.599 Colorado State 19 - Boise State 28 3
East Carolina 31 - South Florida 24 6.2 0.698 East Carolina 29 - South Florida 14 -8
Florida Atlantic 24 - Texas El Paso 13 13.1 0.77 Florida Atlantic 28 - Texas El Paso 25 8
Georgia 34 - Florida 21 13 0.788 Georgia 34 - Florida 7 -14
Georgia Southern 23 - Georgia State 24 0.4 0.512 Georgia Southern 14 - Georgia State 21 6
Georgia Tech 28 - Virginia Tech 31 1.3 0.53 Georgia Tech 17 - Virginia Tech 26 6
Houston 35 - Southern Methodist 31 4.5 0.628 Houston 44 - Southern Methodist 37 -3
Illinois 24 - Rutgers 20 4.6 0.61 Illinois 14 - Rutgers 20 10
Kansas State 34 - Texas Christian 27 7.5 0.716 Kansas State 31 - Texas Christian 12 -12
Liberty 41 - Massachusetts 10 28.6 0.963 Liberty 62 - Massachusetts 17 -14
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Texas State 10 21.3 0.848 Louisiana Lafayette 45 - Texas State 0 -24
Marshall 35 - Florida International 17 20.5 0.885 Marshall 38 - Florida International 0 -20
Maryland 27 - Indiana 28 1.6 0.538 Maryland 38 - Indiana 35 -4
Michigan State 24 - Michigan 31 6.5 0.684 Michigan State 37 - Michigan 33 -11
Middle Tennessee 27 - Southern Miss 14 12.8 0.787 Middle Tennessee 35 - Southern Miss 10 -12
Miss State 23 - Kentucky 24 1.6 0.537 Miss State 31 - Kentucky 17 -15
NC State 31 - Louisville 28 2.1 0.551 NC State 28 - Louisville 13 -12
Nebraska 28 - Purdue 21 6 0.641 Nebraska 23 - Purdue 28 12
Nevada 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 15.6 0.859 Nevada 51 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 -16
Northwestern 20 - Minnesota 24 5.5 0.612 Northwestern 14 - Minnesota 41 23
Notre Dame 38 - North Carolina 27 12.6 0.753 Notre Dame 44 - North Carolina 34 1
Ohio State 41 - Penn State 27 14.2 0.785 Ohio State 33 - Penn State 24 5
Oklahoma 48 - Texas Tech 31 15.6 0.799 Oklahoma 52 - Texas Tech 21 -14
Oklahoma State 45 - Kansas 13 33 0.987 Oklahoma State 55 - Kansas 3 -20
Old Dominion 20 - Louisiana Tech 21 3.4 0.6 Old Dominion 23 - Louisiana Tech 20 -4
Oregon 34 - Colorado 14 17.7 0.82 Oregon 52 - Colorado 29 -3
Pittsburgh 38 - Miami FL 27 10.5 0.756 Pittsburgh 34 - Miami FL 38 15
Rice 24 - North Texas 21 2.5 0.556 Rice 24 - North Texas 30 9
San Diego State 21 - Fresno State 17 4.3 0.654 San Diego State 20 - Fresno State 30 14
San Jose State 18 - Wyoming 17 0.6 0.519 San Jose State 27 - Wyoming 21 -5
South Alabama 31 - Arkansas State 27 5.8 0.63 South Alabama 31 - Arkansas State 13 -14
Southern California 41 - Arizona 20 21 0.862 Southern California 41 - Arizona 34 14
Stanford 24 - Washington 27 0.8 0.524 Stanford 13 - Washington 20 4
Syracuse 31 - Boston College 21 8.3 0.743 Syracuse 21 - Boston College 6 -5
Temple 21 - Central Florida 35 15.1 0.81 Temple 7 - Central Florida 49 28
Tulane 21 - Cincinnati 41 20.3 0.881 Tulane 12 - Cincinnati 31 -1
Tulsa 27 - Navy 24 3.4 0.576 Tulsa 17 - Navy 20 6
Utah 38 - UCLA 27 9.6 0.758 Utah 44 - UCLA 24 -9
Utah State 34 - Hawaii 24 8.3 0.742 Utah State 51 - Hawaii 31 -10
Vanderbilt 28 - Missouri 35 7.1 0.688 Vanderbilt 28 - Missouri 37 2
Wake Forest 49 - Duke 24 25.1 0.911 Wake Forest 45 - Duke 7 -13
West Virginia 21 - Iowa State 31 9.3 0.749 West Virginia 38 - Iowa State 31 -17
Western Kentucky 35 - Charlotte 21 14.8 0.881 Western Kentucky 45 - Charlotte 13 -18
Wisconsin 21 - Iowa 20 2 0.543 Wisconsin 27 - Iowa 7 -19


Number of FBS Games: 53
Number Correct: 39 = 73.5%
Expected Number Correct: 37.485 = 70.7%
Average Error: 11.24
Average Signed Error: -2.65

WEEK 10

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 14 - Ball State 31 16.4 0.777 Akron 25 - Ball State 31 -11
Alabama 49 - Louisiana State 28 21.9 0.911 Alabama 20 - Louisiana State 14 15
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Louisiana Tech 14 8.3 0.691 Alabama Birmingham 52 - Louisiana Tech 38 -4
Arizona 17 - California 31 11.2 0.758 Arizona 10 - California 3 -21
Arizona State 34 - Southern California 28 5 0.632 Arizona State 31 - Southern California 16 -9
Arkansas 32 - Miss State 31 1.4 0.532 Arkansas 31 - Miss State 28 -2
Arkansas State 21 - Appalachian State 38 17.2 0.81 Arkansas State 14 - Appalachian State 48 17
Army 24 - Air Force 28 5 0.659 Army 21 - Air Force 14 -11
Boston College 20 - Virginia Tech 27 5.4 0.686 Boston College 17 - Virginia Tech 3 -21
Brigham Young 48 - FCS Team 10 36.5 Brigham Young 59 - FCS Team 14
Central Florida 38 - Tulane 24 15.9 0.825 Central Florida 14 - Tulane 10 10
Charlotte 24 - Rice 20 4.8 0.63 Charlotte 31 - Rice 24 -3
Cincinnati 38 - Tulsa 17 20.8 0.889 Cincinnati 28 - Tulsa 20 13
Colorado 27 - Oregon State 31 5.1 0.635 Colorado 37 - Oregon State 34 -7
Duke 20 - Pittsburgh 38 18.8 0.829 Duke 29 - Pittsburgh 54 7
East Carolina 35 - Temple 17 18.5 0.87 East Carolina 45 - Temple 3 -24
Florida Atlantic 22 - Marshall 21 1.2 0.527 Florida Atlantic 13 - Marshall 28 16
Florida International 20 - Old Dominion 24 4.6 0.674 Florida International 24 - Old Dominion 47 19
Florida State 29 - NC State 28 0.8 0.525 Florida State 14 - NC State 28 15
Fresno State 21 - Boise State 27 3.3 0.596 Fresno State 14 - Boise State 40 20
Georgia 49 - Missouri 13 36 0.991 Georgia 43 - Missouri 6 -1
Georgia Southern 20 - Coastal Carolina 31 11 0.741 Georgia Southern 8 - Coastal Carolina 28 9
Hawaii 20 - San Diego State 28 9 0.749 Hawaii 10 - San Diego State 17 -1
Iowa State 38 - Texas 34 4.8 0.629 Iowa State 30 - Texas 7 -19
Kansas 17 - Kansas State 38 23.1 0.915 Kansas 10 - Kansas State 35 4
Kent State 28 - Northern Illinois 31 2.2 0.557 Kent State 52 - Northern Illinois 47 -8
Kentucky 31 - Tennessee 27 5.2 0.646 Kentucky 42 - Tennessee 45 7
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Georgia State 14 15.6 0.77 Louisiana Lafayette 21 - Georgia State 17 13
Louisville 21 - Clemson 27 5.7 0.674 Louisville 24 - Clemson 30 0
Maryland 21 - Penn State 38 15.4 0.808 Maryland 14 - Penn State 31 0
Massachusetts 29 - FCS Team 28 1.3 Massachusetts 22 - FCS Team 35
Memphis 35 - Southern Methodist 38 1.9 0.546 Memphis 28 - Southern Methodist 25 -6
Miami FL 38 - Georgia Tech 24 12.6 0.773 Miami FL 33 - Georgia Tech 30 11
Michigan 41 - Indiana 17 23 0.918 Michigan 29 - Indiana 7 2
Minnesota 31 - Illinois 14 16.1 0.806 Minnesota 6 - Illinois 14 25
Mississippi 41 - Liberty 27 12.7 0.789 Mississippi 27 - Liberty 14 1
Nebraska 28 - Ohio State 42 13.6 0.773 Nebraska 17 - Ohio State 26 -5
Nevada 34 - San Jose State 17 15.1 0.851 Nevada 27 - San Jose State 24 14
New Mexico 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 2.9 0.593 New Mexico 17 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 18
New Mexico St 24 - Utah State 41 16.3 0.911 New Mexico St 13 - Utah State 35 5
North Carolina 38 - Wake Forest 41 3 0.573 North Carolina 58 - Wake Forest 55 -6
Northwestern 17 - Iowa 27 11.1 0.725 Northwestern 12 - Iowa 17 -5
Notre Dame 35 - Navy 14 21.8 0.888 Notre Dame 34 - Navy 6 -7
Ohio 14 - Miami OH 20 5 0.679 Ohio 35 - Miami OH 33 -8
Purdue 24 - Michigan State 27 1 0.528 Purdue 40 - Michigan State 29 -14
Rutgers 13 - Wisconsin 27 14.4 0.779 Rutgers 3 - Wisconsin 52 35
South Carolina 20 - Florida 31 12.8 0.789 South Carolina 40 - Florida 17 -34
South Florida 21 - Houston 34 11.5 0.775 South Florida 42 - Houston 54 -1
Southern Miss 20 - North Texas 21 1.1 0.532 Southern Miss 14 - North Texas 38 23
Stanford 27 - Utah 31 6.8 0.708 Stanford 7 - Utah 52 41
Texas AM 28 - Auburn 27 1.8 0.546 Texas AM 20 - Auburn 3 -16
Texas Christian 27 - Baylor 34 7.1 0.698 Texas Christian 30 - Baylor 28 -9
Texas El Paso 17 - Texas San Antonio 27 8.3 0.739 Texas El Paso 23 - Texas San Antonio 44 11
Texas State 27 - Louisiana Monroe 28 1.2 0.525 Texas State 27 - Louisiana Monroe 19 -9
Toledo 27 - Eastern Michigan 20 6.4 0.673 Toledo 49 - Eastern Michigan 52 10
Troy 21 - South Alabama 17 3.6 0.586 Troy 31 - South Alabama 24 -3
Washington 28 - Oregon 27 0 0.5 Washington 16 - Oregon 26 11
West Virginia 24 - Oklahoma State 28 5.8 0.67 West Virginia 3 - Oklahoma State 24 17
Western Kentucky 34 - Middle Tennessee 24 10 0.757 Western Kentucky 48 - Middle Tennessee 21 -17
Western Michigan 34 - Central Michigan 21 11.5 0.75 Western Michigan 30 - Central Michigan 42 25
Wyoming 17 - Colorado State 21 4.4 0.607 Wyoming 31 - Colorado State 17 -18


Number of FBS Games: 59
Number Correct: 38 = 64.4%
Expected Number Correct: 41.923 = 71%
Average Error: 12.1
Average Signed Error: 1.93

WEEK 11

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 59 - New Mexico St 10 49.3 0.992 Alabama 59 - New Mexico St 3 -7
Appalachian State 35 - South Alabama 14 20.7 0.874 Appalachian State 31 - South Alabama 7 -3
Arizona 17 - Utah 38 19 0.824 Arizona 29 - Utah 38 -12
Army 45 - FCS Team 10 32.7 Army 63 - FCS Team 10
Auburn 31 - Miss State 21 8.4 0.719 Auburn 34 - Miss State 43 19
Baylor 36 - Oklahoma 35 0.1 0.504 Baylor 27 - Oklahoma 14 -12
Boise State 31 - Wyoming 10 19.4 0.826 Boise State 23 - Wyoming 13 11
Bowling Green 17 - Toledo 28 10.9 0.733 Bowling Green 17 - Toledo 49 21
Central Michigan 34 - Kent State 28 6.3 0.676 Central Michigan 54 - Kent State 30 -18
Clemson 45 - Connecticut 0 44.7 0.992 Clemson 44 - Connecticut 7 8
Coastal Carolina 31 - Georgia State 17 13.4 0.785 Coastal Carolina 40 - Georgia State 42 16
Colorado State 20 - Air Force 24 4.2 0.623 Colorado State 21 - Air Force 35 10
Eastern Michigan 34 - Ohio 24 10.1 0.761 Eastern Michigan 26 - Ohio 34 18
Florida 48 - FCS Team 10 37.7 Florida 70 - FCS Team 52
Florida State 31 - Miami FL 28 2.3 0.567 Florida State 31 - Miami FL 28 0
Fresno State 31 - New Mexico 10 19.5 0.914 Fresno State 34 - New Mexico 7 -6
Georgia Tech 27 - Boston College 24 2.8 0.569 Georgia Tech 30 - Boston College 41 14
Indiana 28 - Rutgers 21 6.9 0.673 Indiana 3 - Rutgers 38 42
Iowa 24 - Minnesota 17 6.3 0.655 Iowa 27 - Minnesota 22 2
Kansas State 27 - West Virginia 20 6.9 0.696 Kansas State 34 - West Virginia 17 -10
Louisiana Monroe 35 - Arkansas State 31 3.8 0.573 Louisiana Monroe 24 - Arkansas State 27 7
Louisiana State 38 - Arkansas 31 6.9 0.692 Louisiana State 13 - Arkansas 16 10
Louisiana Tech 31 - Charlotte 20 9.9 0.756 Louisiana Tech 42 - Charlotte 32 1
Louisville 31 - Syracuse 27 5.4 0.682 Louisville 41 - Syracuse 3 -34
Marshall 27 - Alabama Birmingham 17 8.9 0.707 Marshall 14 - Alabama Birmingham 21 17
Massachusetts 29 - FCS Team 28 1 Massachusetts 10 - FCS Team 35
Memphis 31 - East Carolina 27 3 0.58 Memphis 29 - East Carolina 30 5
Miami OH 24 - Buffalo 20 5.8 0.668 Miami OH 45 - Buffalo 18 -23
Michigan State 42 - Maryland 24 18 0.848 Michigan State 40 - Maryland 21 -1
Middle Tennessee 34 - Florida International 17 15.3 0.823 Middle Tennessee 50 - Florida International 10 -23
Mississippi 30 - Texas AM 31 1.2 0.535 Mississippi 29 - Texas AM 19 -11
Missouri 28 - South Carolina 31 0.8 0.522 Missouri 31 - South Carolina 28 -6
Nevada Las Vegas 28 - Hawaii 27 0.3 0.512 Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Hawaii 13 -13
North Texas 25 - Texas El Paso 24 0.4 0.517 North Texas 20 - Texas El Paso 17 -2
Northern Illinois 28 - Ball State 27 1.8 0.538 Northern Illinois 30 - Ball State 29 0
Ohio State 42 - Purdue 24 18 0.869 Ohio State 59 - Purdue 31 -10
Oklahoma State 38 - Texas Christian 20 16.5 0.873 Oklahoma State 63 - Texas Christian 17 -28
Old Dominion 17 - Florida Atlantic 24 5.5 0.67 Old Dominion 30 - Florida Atlantic 16 -21
Oregon 34 - Washington State 27 7.5 0.698 Oregon 38 - Washington State 24 -7
Oregon State 35 - Stanford 31 6.4 0.669 Oregon State 35 - Stanford 14 -17
Penn State 26 - Michigan 27 0.4 0.513 Penn State 17 - Michigan 21 3
Pittsburgh 42 - North Carolina 35 5.4 0.632 Pittsburgh 30 - North Carolina 23 0
Rice 17 - Western Kentucky 34 16.5 0.83 Rice 21 - Western Kentucky 42 4
San Diego State 24 - Nevada 21 1.7 0.544 San Diego State 23 - Nevada 21 1
San Jose State 21 - Utah State 27 4.2 0.645 San Jose State 17 - Utah State 41 18
South Florida 20 - Cincinnati 35 16.6 0.857 South Florida 28 - Cincinnati 45 2
Southern Methodist 34 - Central Florida 31 1.5 0.54 Southern Methodist 55 - Central Florida 28 -24
Temple 20 - Houston 41 21.5 0.875 Temple 8 - Houston 37 8
Tennessee 21 - Georgia 38 16.9 0.861 Tennessee 17 - Georgia 41 7
Texas 48 - Kansas 17 30.1 0.964 Texas 56 - Kansas 57 32
Texas San Antonio 35 - Southern Miss 7 28.7 0.984 Texas San Antonio 27 - Southern Miss 17 18
Texas State 20 - Georgia Southern 21 2.1 0.544 Texas State 30 - Georgia Southern 38 7
Texas Tech 27 - Iowa State 41 12.9 0.764 Texas Tech 41 - Iowa State 38 -17
Troy 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 8 0.684 Troy 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 35 4
Tulane 26 - Tulsa 27 1.1 0.528 Tulane 13 - Tulsa 20 6
UCLA 35 - Colorado 24 10.7 0.745 UCLA 44 - Colorado 20 -13
Vanderbilt 17 - Kentucky 38 19.2 0.862 Vanderbilt 17 - Kentucky 34 -4
Virginia 31 - Notre Dame 38 7 0.676 Virginia 3 - Notre Dame 28 18
Virginia Tech 34 - Duke 17 16.5 0.807 Virginia Tech 48 - Duke 17 -14
Wake Forest 38 - NC State 31 5.1 0.659 Wake Forest 45 - NC State 42 4
Washington 24 - Arizona State 21 0.8 0.526 Washington 30 - Arizona State 35 8
Western Michigan 35 - Akron 14 21.2 0.825 Western Michigan 45 - Akron 40 16
Wisconsin 34 - Northwestern 10 23.8 0.853 Wisconsin 35 - Northwestern 7 -4


Number of FBS Games: 60
Number Correct: 45 = 75%
Expected Number Correct: 42.833 = 71.3%
Average Error: 11.61
Average Signed Error: 0.28

WEEK 12

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 28 - Kent State 34 4.4 0.602 Akron 0 - Kent State 38 32
Alabama 45 - Arkansas 24 22.5 0.917 Alabama 42 - Arkansas 35 14
Army 45 - Massachusetts 10 35.3 0.988 Army 33 - Massachusetts 17 19
Ball State 27 - Central Michigan 24 2.7 0.561 Ball State 17 - Central Michigan 37 23
Boise State 35 - New Mexico 6 29.1 0.975 Boise State 37 - New Mexico 0 -8
Boston College 24 - Florida State 27 2.4 0.571 Boston College 23 - Florida State 26 0
Buffalo 29 - Northern Illinois 28 0.7 0.521 Buffalo 27 - Northern Illinois 33 7
Central Florida 42 - Connecticut 13 30.9 0.972 Central Florida 49 - Connecticut 17 -3
Charlotte 14 - Marshall 28 13.8 0.805 Charlotte 28 - Marshall 49 7
Cincinnati 38 - Southern Methodist 28 9.8 0.745 Cincinnati 48 - Southern Methodist 14 -24
Clemson 38 - Wake Forest 31 5.3 0.684 Clemson 48 - Wake Forest 27 -14
Coastal Carolina 38 - Texas State 14 23.3 0.924 Coastal Carolina 35 - Texas State 21 10
Colorado 20 - Washington 27 6.9 0.682 Colorado 20 - Washington 17 -10
Duke 21 - Louisville 41 18.2 0.818 Duke 22 - Louisville 62 20
Eastern Michigan 34 - Western Michigan 28 4.4 0.606 Eastern Michigan 22 - Western Michigan 21 5
Florida International 21 - North Texas 31 8.6 0.734 Florida International 7 - North Texas 49 32
Georgia 55 - FCS Team 0 54.8 Georgia 56 - FCS Team 7
Georgia Southern 17 - Brigham Young 34 15.2 0.814 Georgia Southern 17 - Brigham Young 31 -3
Georgia State 34 - Arkansas State 21 12.9 0.764 Georgia State 28 - Arkansas State 20 5
Hawaii 24 - Colorado State 27 3.7 0.61 Hawaii 50 - Colorado State 45 -8
Houston 38 - Memphis 27 9.3 0.729 Houston 31 - Memphis 13 -7
Indiana 20 - Minnesota 28 9.7 0.723 Indiana 14 - Minnesota 35 13
Iowa 27 - Illinois 10 14.4 0.798 Iowa 33 - Illinois 23 7
Kansas State 25 - Baylor 24 0.9 0.526 Kansas State 10 - Baylor 20 11
Kentucky 45 - New Mexico St 14 31.4 0.992 Kentucky 56 - New Mexico St 16 -9
Liberty 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 1.2 0.525 Liberty 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 42 31
Louisiana State 45 - Louisiana Monroe 17 28.8 0.939 Louisiana State 27 - Louisiana Monroe 14 15
Louisiana Tech 28 - Southern Miss 14 14.4 0.803 Louisiana Tech 19 - Southern Miss 35 30
Maryland 21 - Michigan 41 19.8 0.878 Maryland 18 - Michigan 59 21
Miami FL 31 - Virginia Tech 24 5.9 0.673 Miami FL 38 - Virginia Tech 26 -5
Miami OH 31 - Bowling Green 13 19.2 0.842 Miami OH 34 - Bowling Green 7 -9
Middle Tennessee 27 - Old Dominion 20 6.4 0.681 Middle Tennessee 17 - Old Dominion 24 14
Miss State 49 - FCS Team 10 37.9 Miss State 55 - FCS Team 7
Mississippi 48 - Vanderbilt 17 29.5 0.982 Mississippi 31 - Vanderbilt 7 7
Missouri 31 - Florida 38 6.9 0.67 Missouri 24 - Florida 23 -8
Navy 25 - East Carolina 24 0.6 0.522 Navy 35 - East Carolina 38 4
NC State 31 - Syracuse 20 13.2 0.772 NC State 41 - Syracuse 17 -13
Nevada 24 - Air Force 27 1.3 0.539 Nevada 39 - Air Force 41 -1
Nevada Las Vegas 14 - San Diego State 24 10.1 0.763 Nevada Las Vegas 20 - San Diego State 28 -2
North Carolina 52 - FCS Team 17 34.9 North Carolina 34 - FCS Team 14
Northwestern 21 - Purdue 28 7.2 0.681 Northwestern 14 - Purdue 32 11
Notre Dame 41 - Georgia Tech 17 24.2 0.915 Notre Dame 55 - Georgia Tech 0 -31
Ohio 21 - Toledo 24 3.5 0.597 Ohio 23 - Toledo 35 9
Ohio State 48 - Michigan State 28 18.7 0.874 Ohio State 56 - Michigan State 7 -29
Oklahoma 35 - Iowa State 31 2.7 0.56 Oklahoma 28 - Iowa State 21 -3
Oregon State 31 - Arizona State 34 1.8 0.545 Oregon State 24 - Arizona State 10 -17
Penn State 31 - Rutgers 13 18.9 0.827 Penn State 28 - Rutgers 0 -10
Pittsburgh 38 - Virginia 31 8.6 0.72 Pittsburgh 48 - Virginia 38 -3
South Carolina 21 - Auburn 31 8.5 0.709 South Carolina 21 - Auburn 17 -14
Southern California 35 - UCLA 34 2.2 0.555 Southern California 33 - UCLA 62 30
Stanford 20 - California 21 0.6 0.519 Stanford 11 - California 41 29
Tennessee 38 - South Alabama 17 21.2 0.892 Tennessee 60 - South Alabama 14 -25
Texas AM 48 - FCS Team 6 42.5 Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 3
Texas Christian 45 - Kansas 27 18.2 0.815 Texas Christian 31 - Kansas 28 15
Texas El Paso 24 - Rice 13 9.8 0.745 Texas El Paso 38 - Rice 28 1
Texas San Antonio 27 - Alabama Birmingham 21 5.8 0.646 Texas San Antonio 34 - Alabama Birmingham 31 3
Texas Tech 27 - Oklahoma State 41 13.8 0.766 Texas Tech 0 - Oklahoma State 23 9
Troy 17 - Appalachian State 28 11.7 0.779 Troy 7 - Appalachian State 45 27
Tulane 28 - South Florida 27 2.9 0.601 Tulane 45 - South Florida 14 -30
Tulsa 34 - Temple 13 20.1 0.867 Tulsa 44 - Temple 10 -13
Utah 35 - Oregon 31 5 0.634 Utah 38 - Oregon 7 -27
Utah State 27 - Wyoming 20 8.6 0.717 Utah State 17 - Wyoming 44 34
Washington State 34 - Arizona 17 14.4 0.781 Washington State 44 - Arizona 18 -9
West Virginia 30 - Texas 31 0.1 0.505 West Virginia 31 - Texas 23 -9
Western Kentucky 31 - Florida Atlantic 21 9.4 0.733 Western Kentucky 52 - Florida Atlantic 17 -25
Wisconsin 31 - Nebraska 17 14.1 0.769 Wisconsin 35 - Nebraska 28 7


Number of FBS Games: 62
Number Correct: 47 = 75.8%
Expected Number Correct: 45.402 = 73.2%
Average Error: 14.04
Average Signed Error: 2.14

WEEK 13

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 18.8 0.916 Air Force 48 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 -14
Alabama Birmingham 27 - Texas El Paso 13 14.2 0.809 Alabama Birmingham 42 - Texas El Paso 25 -3
Appalachian State 35 - Georgia Southern 13 23.4 0.904 Appalachian State 27 - Georgia Southern 3 -2
Arizona State 34 - Arizona 17 16.4 0.814 Arizona State 38 - Arizona 15 -6
Arkansas 41 - Missouri 28 10.6 0.775 Arkansas 34 - Missouri 17 -4
Arkansas State 31 - Texas State 24 5.9 0.653 Arkansas State 22 - Texas State 24 9
Auburn 28 - Alabama 38 11.7 0.766 Auburn 22 - Alabama 24 -8
Ball State 28 - Buffalo 21 5.9 0.645 Ball State 20 - Buffalo 3 -10
Baylor 38 - Texas Tech 21 15.4 0.791 Baylor 27 - Texas Tech 24 14
Boston College 31 - Wake Forest 38 5.7 0.683 Boston College 10 - Wake Forest 41 24
Bowling Green 20 - Ohio 28 8 0.7 Bowling Green 21 - Ohio 10 -19
Central Florida 38 - South Florida 24 15.1 0.807 Central Florida 17 - South Florida 13 10
Central Michigan 31 - Eastern Michigan 27 4.8 0.631 Central Michigan 31 - Eastern Michigan 10 -17
Colorado State 28 - Nevada 31 2 0.554 Colorado State 10 - Nevada 52 39
Connecticut 14 - Houston 42 28 0.969 Connecticut 17 - Houston 45 0
Duke 24 - Miami FL 41 16.7 0.823 Duke 10 - Miami FL 47 20
East Carolina 24 - Cincinnati 34 11.2 0.77 East Carolina 13 - Cincinnati 35 12
Florida 31 - Florida State 27 5.9 0.652 Florida 24 - Florida State 21 1
Florida Atlantic 24 - Middle Tennessee 20 3.6 0.582 Florida Atlantic 17 - Middle Tennessee 27 14
Georgia State 27 - Troy 20 6.8 0.684 Georgia State 37 - Troy 10 -20
Georgia Tech 10 - Georgia 42 32.2 0.978 Georgia Tech 0 - Georgia 45 13
Illinois 24 - Northwestern 17 6 0.645 Illinois 47 - Northwestern 14 -26
Iowa State 41 - Texas Christian 24 15.8 0.796 Iowa State 48 - Texas Christian 14 -17
Kansas 24 - West Virginia 38 13.7 0.778 Kansas 28 - West Virginia 34 -8
Kent State 21 - Miami OH 27 4.6 0.619 Kent State 48 - Miami OH 47 -7
Liberty 27 - Army 24 1.8 0.536 Liberty 16 - Army 31 18
Louisiana Lafayette 38 - Louisiana Monroe 13 24.5 0.853 Louisiana Lafayette 21 - Louisiana Monroe 16 20
Louisiana State 24 - Texas AM 27 1.9 0.551 Louisiana State 27 - Texas AM 24 -6
Louisville 34 - Kentucky 31 3.4 0.595 Louisville 21 - Kentucky 52 34
Marshall 28 - Western Kentucky 24 2.2 0.552 Marshall 21 - Western Kentucky 53 36
Memphis 31 - Tulane 24 6.7 0.677 Memphis 33 - Tulane 28 2
Michigan 34 - Ohio State 38 5.8 0.645 Michigan 42 - Ohio State 27 -19
Michigan State 24 - Penn State 28 4.3 0.615 Michigan State 30 - Penn State 27 -7
Minnesota 20 - Wisconsin 27 6.9 0.67 Minnesota 23 - Wisconsin 13 -17
Miss State 34 - Mississippi 31 0.7 0.522 Miss State 21 - Mississippi 31 13
NC State 38 - North Carolina 31 8.3 0.702 NC State 34 - North Carolina 30 3
Nebraska 25 - Iowa 24 1.1 0.528 Nebraska 21 - Iowa 28 8
New Mexico 17 - Utah State 28 10.1 0.75 New Mexico 10 - Utah State 35 14
New Mexico St 34 - Massachusetts 27 7.2 0.726 New Mexico St 44 - Massachusetts 27 -10
North Texas 21 - Texas San Antonio 31 7.8 0.718 North Texas 45 - Texas San Antonio 23 -32
Northern Illinois 31 - Western Michigan 28 2.3 0.554 Northern Illinois 21 - Western Michigan 42 24
Oklahoma State 35 - Oklahoma 27 8.2 0.725 Oklahoma State 37 - Oklahoma 33 4
Old Dominion 28 - Charlotte 17 10.1 0.783 Old Dominion 56 - Charlotte 34 -11
Oregon 35 - Oregon State 28 7.8 0.7 Oregon 38 - Oregon State 29 -2
Purdue 35 - Indiana 17 18.2 0.872 Purdue 44 - Indiana 7 -19
Rice 21 - Louisiana Tech 27 3.4 0.577 Rice 35 - Louisiana Tech 31 -10
Rutgers 31 - Maryland 24 6.2 0.642 Rutgers 16 - Maryland 40 31
San Diego State 14 - Boise State 21 7.6 0.722 San Diego State 27 - Boise State 16 -18
San Jose State 17 - Fresno State 27 8.9 0.736 San Jose State 9 - Fresno State 40 21
South Alabama 21 - Coastal Carolina 31 10.5 0.739 South Alabama 21 - Coastal Carolina 27 -4
South Carolina 17 - Clemson 28 9.4 0.729 South Carolina 0 - Clemson 30 19
Southern California 31 - Brigham Young 34 1.8 0.542 Southern California 31 - Brigham Young 35 1
Southern Methodist 35 - Tulsa 28 7 0.685 Southern Methodist 31 - Tulsa 34 10
Southern Miss 27 - Florida International 14 13 0.763 Southern Miss 37 - Florida International 17 -7
Stanford 14 - Notre Dame 35 21.3 0.864 Stanford 14 - Notre Dame 45 10
Syracuse 27 - Pittsburgh 34 6.8 0.684 Syracuse 14 - Pittsburgh 31 10
Temple 14 - Navy 28 14 0.792 Temple 14 - Navy 38 10
Tennessee 45 - Vanderbilt 20 25.7 0.928 Tennessee 45 - Vanderbilt 21 1
Texas 32 - Kansas State 31 0.5 0.517 Texas 22 - Kansas State 17 -4
Toledo 38 - Akron 10 26.7 0.924 Toledo 49 - Akron 14 -7
UCLA 31 - California 24 6.7 0.673 UCLA 42 - California 14 -21
Utah 38 - Colorado 17 21.8 0.844 Utah 28 - Colorado 13 6
Virginia 34 - Virginia Tech 28 5.2 0.643 Virginia 24 - Virginia Tech 29 11
Washington 25 - Washington State 24 2 0.549 Washington 13 - Washington State 40 28
Wyoming 28 - Hawaii 17 10.4 0.73 Wyoming 14 - Hawaii 38 35


Number of FBS Games: 65
Number Correct: 43 = 66.1%
Expected Number Correct: 46.301 = 71.2%
Average Error: 13.53
Average Signed Error: 2.61

WEEK 14

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
California 28 - Southern California 27 2.2 0.545 California 24 - Southern California 14 -9
Cincinnati 35 - Houston 24 12 0.773 Cincinnati 35 - Houston 20 -4
Georgia 34 - Alabama 28 4.7 0.645 Georgia 24 - Alabama 41 23
Kent State 33 - Northern Illinois 34 0.7 0.522 Kent State 23 - Northern Illinois 41 17
Louisiana Lafayette 21 - Appalachian State 24 1 0.523 Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Appalachian State 16 -11
Michigan 31 - Iowa 24 7.8 0.695 Michigan 42 - Iowa 3 -32
Oklahoma State 28 - Baylor 21 6.7 0.696 Oklahoma State 16 - Baylor 21 12
Pittsburgh 37 - Wake Forest 38 0.4 0.516 Pittsburgh 45 - Wake Forest 21 -25
Texas San Antonio 28 - Western Kentucky 31 1.7 0.534 Texas San Antonio 49 - Western Kentucky 41 -11
Utah 34 - Oregon 28 5.4 0.628 Utah 38 - Oregon 10 -22
Utah State 17 - San Diego State 27 7.5 0.701 Utah State 46 - San Diego State 13 -43


Number of FBS Games: 11
Number Correct: 5 = 45.4%
Expected Number Correct: 6.778 = 61.6%
Average Error: 19
Average Signed Error: -9.55

WEEK 15

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Navy 20 - Army 27 6.7 0.677 Navy 17 - Army 13 -11

WEEK 16

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 38 - Cincinnati 24 12.5 0.768 Alabama 27 - Cincinnati 6 -7
Appalachian State 31 - Western Kentucky 27 5.1 0.63 Appalachian State 38 - Western Kentucky 59 25
Arizona State 20 - Wisconsin 28 9.8 0.738 Arizona State 13 - Wisconsin 20 -1
Arkansas 27 - Penn State 31 3.8 0.627 Arkansas 24 - Penn State 10 -18
Army 31 - Missouri 28 3.4 0.59 Army 24 - Missouri 22 1
Auburn 31 - Houston 27 6.6 0.685 Auburn 13 - Houston 17 8
Ball State 20 - Georgia State 24 3.7 0.582 Ball State 20 - Georgia State 51 27
Brigham Young 28 - Alabama Birmingham 24 6.4 0.679 Brigham Young 28 - Alabama Birmingham 31 7
Coastal Carolina 34 - Northern Illinois 24 8.8 0.732 Coastal Carolina 47 - Northern Illinois 41 4
Florida 31 - Central Florida 24 7.1 0.674 Florida 17 - Central Florida 29 19
Fresno State 31 - Texas El Paso 14 15.7 0.863 Fresno State 31 - Texas El Paso 24 10
Iowa State 24 - Clemson 27 3.2 0.575 Iowa State 13 - Clemson 20 4
Kansas State 21 - Louisiana State 27 4.6 0.656 Kansas State 42 - Louisiana State 20 -28
Kentucky 28 - Iowa 24 2.7 0.562 Kentucky 20 - Iowa 17 1
Liberty 28 - Eastern Michigan 24 5.7 0.646 Liberty 56 - Eastern Michigan 20 -32
Louisville 28 - Air Force 31 1.7 0.542 Louisville 28 - Air Force 31 0
Marshall 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 7.7 0.667 Marshall 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 36 8
Miami OH 24 - North Texas 21 2.8 0.56 Miami OH 27 - North Texas 14 -10
Michigan 24 - Georgia 31 6.3 0.661 Michigan 11 - Georgia 34 16
Michigan State 31 - Pittsburgh 34 3.9 0.594 Michigan State 31 - Pittsburgh 21 -13
Minnesota 27 - West Virginia 20 7.6 0.702 Minnesota 18 - West Virginia 6 -5
Mississippi 29 - Baylor 28 1.6 0.545 Mississippi 7 - Baylor 21 15
Nevada 35 - Western Michigan 27 8.7 0.699 Nevada 24 - Western Michigan 52 36
Notre Dame 27 - Oklahoma State 24 2.7 0.567 Notre Dame 35 - Oklahoma State 37 5
Ohio State 41 - Utah 31 8.9 0.694 Ohio State 48 - Utah 45 7
Oklahoma 38 - Oregon 31 5 0.637 Oklahoma 47 - Oregon 32 -8
Oregon State 34 - Utah State 31 1.7 0.534 Oregon State 13 - Utah State 24 14
Purdue 34 - Tennessee 35 1.2 0.53 Purdue 48 - Tennessee 45 -4
Rutgers 24 - Wake Forest 41 14.9 0.764 Rutgers 10 - Wake Forest 38 11
San Diego State 24 - Texas San Antonio 21 2.1 0.543 San Diego State 38 - Texas San Antonio 24 -11
South Carolina 28 - North Carolina 34 5.1 0.617 South Carolina 38 - North Carolina 21 -23
Texas Tech 28 - Miss State 38 9.6 0.718 Texas Tech 34 - Miss State 7 -37
Toledo 27 - Middle Tennessee 20 7 0.694 Toledo 24 - Middle Tennessee 31 14
Tulsa 28 - Old Dominion 20 8.6 0.752 Tulsa 30 - Old Dominion 17 -5
Virginia Tech 34 - Maryland 27 5.7 0.648 Virginia Tech 10 - Maryland 54 51
Washington State 31 - Central Michigan 24 7.9 0.685 Washington State 21 - Central Michigan 24 10
Wyoming 31 - Kent State 24 6.6 0.639 Wyoming 52 - Kent State 38 -7

WEEK 17

Prediction Precise Margin Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 30 - Georgia 31 0.5 0.517 Alabama 18 - Georgia 33 14


Number of FBS Games: 39
Number Correct: 21 = 53.8%
Expected Number Correct: 25.193 = 64.5%
Average Error: 13.51
Average Signed Error: 2.23