2020 PREDICTIONS

NOTE: Weeks 1-4 used a home field advantage of 4 points (the usual)

WEEK 1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 34 - FCS Team 13 Alabama Birmingham 45 - FCS Team 35
Army 27 - Middle Tennessee 21 0.603 Army 42 - Middle Tennessee 0 -36
Marshall 34 - FCS Team 13 Marshall 59 - FCS Team 0
Memphis 42 - Arkansas State 27 0.861 Memphis 37 - Arkansas State 24 2
Navy 31 - Brigham Young 20 0.746 Navy 3 - Brigham Young 55 63
North Texas 38 - FCS Team 21 North Texas 57 - FCS Team 31
Southern Miss 28 - South Alabama 13 0.803 Southern Miss 21 - South Alabama 32 26
Texas El Paso 27 - FCS Team 24 Texas El Paso 24 - FCS Team 14
Texas State 21 - Southern Methodist 38 0.833 Texas State 24 - Southern Methodist 31 -10


Number of FBS Games: 5
Number Correct: 3 = 60%
Expected Number Correct: 3.846 = 76.9%
Average Error: 27.4
Average Signed Error: 9


WEEK 2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 34 - Charlotte 7 0.956 Appalachian State 35 - Charlotte 20 12
Army 35 - Louisiana Monroe 20 0.769 Army 37 - Louisiana Monroe 7 -15
Florida State 31 - Georgia Tech 24 0.728 Florida State 13 - Georgia Tech 16 10
Georgia Southern 41 - FCS Team 14 Georgia Southern 27 - FCS Team 26
Iowa State 34 - Louisiana Lafayette 20 0.798 Iowa State 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 31
Kansas 31 - Coastal Carolina 24 0.672 Kansas 23 - Coastal Carolina 38 22
Kansas State 31 - Arkansas State 21 0.771 Kansas State 31 - Arkansas State 35 14
Louisville 35 - Western Kentucky 27 0.699 Louisville 35 - Western Kentucky 21 -6
Miami FL 24 - Alabama Birmingham 10 0.736 Miami FL 31 - Alabama Birmingham 14 -3
North Carolina 38 - Syracuse 31 0.624 North Carolina 31 - Syracuse 6 -18
Notre Dame 38 - Duke 17 0.805 Notre Dame 27 - Duke 13 7
Oklahoma 63 - FCS Team 14 Oklahoma 48 - FCS Team 0
Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 13 Pittsburgh 55 - FCS Team 0
South Alabama 21 - Tulane 24 0.58 South Alabama 24 - Tulane 27 0
South Florida 41 - FCS Team 17 South Florida 27 - FCS Team 6
Texas 45 - Texas El Paso 7 0.989 Texas 59 - Texas El Paso 3 -18
Texas State 20 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.583 Texas State 48 - Texas San Antonio 51 6
Texas Tech 52 - FCS Team 20 Texas Tech 35 - FCS Team 33
Wake Forest 20 - Clemson 45 0.911 Wake Forest 13 - Clemson 37 -1
West Virginia 49 - FCS Team 13 West Virginia 56 - FCS Team 10


Number of FBS Games: 14
Number Correct: 9 = 64.2%
Expected Number Correct: 10.621 = 75.8%
Average Error: 11.64
Average Signed Error: 2.92

WEEK 3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Cincinnati 42 - FCS Team 10 Cincinnati 55 - FCS Team 20
Clemson 62 - FCS Team 3 Clemson 49 - FCS Team 0
Duke 28 - Boston College 24 0.602 Duke 6 - Boston College 26 24
Georgia State 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.683 Georgia State 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 34 -4
Georgia Tech 27 - Central Florida 31 0.592 Georgia Tech 21 - Central Florida 49 24
Louisiana Monroe 31 - Texas State 21 0.703 Louisiana Monroe 17 - Texas State 38 31
Louisville 27 - Miami FL 28 0.5 Louisville 34 - Miami FL 47 12
Marshall 14 - Appalachian State 27 0.744 Marshall 17 - Appalachian State 7 -23
Middle Tennessee 24 - Troy 27 0.554 Middle Tennessee 14 - Troy 47 30
NC State 30 - Wake Forest 31 0.515 NC State 45 - Wake Forest 42 -4
North Texas 28 - Southern Methodist 31 0.587 North Texas 35 - Southern Methodist 65 27
Notre Dame 38 - South Florida 13 0.931 Notre Dame 52 - South Florida 0 -27
Oklahoma State 41 - Tulsa 24 0.845 Oklahoma State 16 - Tulsa 7 8
Pittsburgh 31 - Syracuse 24 0.697 Pittsburgh 21 - Syracuse 10 -4
Southern Miss 21 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.528 Southern Miss 30 - Louisiana Tech 31 -2
Texas El Paso 28 - FCS Team 24 Texas El Paso 17 - FCS Team 13
Texas San Antonio 35 - FCS Team 21 Texas San Antonio 24 - FCS Team 10
Tulane 25 - Navy 24 0.512 Tulane 24 - Navy 27 4
Western Kentucky 31 - Liberty 24 0.689 Western Kentucky 24 - Liberty 30 13


Number of FBS Games: 15
Number Correct: 9 = 60%
Expected Number Correct: 9.682 = 64.5%
Average Error: 15.8
Average Signed Error: 7.26

WEEK 4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 42 - FCS Team 7 Appalachian State 52 - FCS Team 21
Arkansas 20 - Georgia 41 0.895 Arkansas 10 - Georgia 37 6
Auburn 34 - Kentucky 20 0.797 Auburn 29 - Kentucky 13 -2
Baylor 41 - Kansas 17 0.916 Baylor 47 - Kansas 14 -9
Boston College 34 - Texas State 13 0.89 Boston College 24 - Texas State 21 18
Brigham Young 35 - Troy 20 0.756 Brigham Young 48 - Troy 7 -26
Cincinnati 21 - Army 20 0.559 Cincinnati 24 - Army 10 -13
East Carolina 24 - Central Florida 45 0.867 East Carolina 28 - Central Florida 51 2
Liberty 31 - Florida International 24 0.665 Liberty 36 - Florida International 34 5
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Georgia Southern 24 0.622 Louisiana Lafayette 20 - Georgia Southern 18 2
Louisiana Monroe 31 - Texas El Paso 17 0.788 Louisiana Monroe 6 - Texas El Paso 31 39
Louisiana State 45 - Miss State 24 0.89 Louisiana State 34 - Miss State 44 31
Louisiana Tech 41 - FCS Team 14 Louisiana Tech 66 - FCS Team 38
Miami FL 28 - Florida State 17 0.749 Miami FL 52 - Florida State 10 -31
Mississippi 28 - Florida 35 0.713 Mississippi 35 - Florida 51 9
Missouri 24 - Alabama 42 0.894 Missouri 19 - Alabama 38 1
Oklahoma 45 - Kansas State 28 0.875 Oklahoma 35 - Kansas State 38 20
Oklahoma State 34 - West Virginia 24 0.734 Oklahoma State 27 - West Virginia 13 -4
Pittsburgh 35 - Louisville 27 0.728 Pittsburgh 23 - Louisville 20 5
South Alabama 19 - Alabama Birmingham 20 0.507 South Alabama 10 - Alabama Birmingham 42 31
South Carolina 28 - Tennessee 27 0.506 South Carolina 27 - Tennessee 31 5
Southern Methodist 48 - FCS Team 20 Southern Methodist 50 - FCS Team 7
Southern Miss 24 - Tulane 21 0.548 Southern Miss 24 - Tulane 66 45
Syracuse 28 - Georgia Tech 24 0.565 Syracuse 37 - Georgia Tech 20 -13
Texas AM 41 - Vanderbilt 20 0.918 Texas AM 17 - Vanderbilt 12 16
Texas Christian 27 - Iowa State 24 0.625 Texas Christian 34 - Iowa State 37 6
Texas San Antonio 28 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.589 Texas San Antonio 37 - Middle Tennessee 35 2
Texas Tech 31 - Texas 38 0.689 Texas Tech 56 - Texas 63 0
Virginia 31 - Duke 21 0.708 Virginia 38 - Duke 20 -8
Virginia Tech 38 - NC State 28 0.72 Virginia Tech 45 - NC State 24 -11


Number of FBS Games: 27
Number Correct: 21 = 77.7%
Expected Number Correct: 19.713 = 73%
Average Error: 13.33
Average Signed Error: 4.66

NOTE: From weeks 5-8, the home field advantage was set to 0 for predictions.

WEEK 5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 28 - Navy 24 0.666 Air Force 40 - Navy 7 -29
Alabama 41 - Texas AM 21 0.909 Alabama 52 - Texas AM 24 -8
Alabama Birmingham 31 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.799 Alabama Birmingham 21 - Texas San Antonio 13 6
Army 38 - FCS Team 10 Army 55 - FCS Team 23
Boston College 20 - North Carolina 27 0.703 Boston College 22 - North Carolina 26 -3
Brigham Young 35 - Louisiana Tech 14 0.83 Brigham Young 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 -10
Central Florida 35 - Tulsa 24 0.816 Central Florida 26 - Tulsa 34 19
Cincinnati 28 - South Florida 10 0.825 Cincinnati 28 - South Florida 7 -3
Clemson 41 - Virginia 20 0.88 Clemson 41 - Virginia 23 3
Coastal Carolina 24 - Arkansas State 35 0.755 Coastal Carolina 52 - Arkansas State 23 -40
Duke 21 - Virginia Tech 34 0.738 Duke 31 - Virginia Tech 38 -6
Florida 38 - South Carolina 27 0.813 Florida 38 - South Carolina 24 -3
Florida Atlantic 34 - Charlotte 17 0.806 Florida Atlantic 21 - Charlotte 17 13
Florida State 35 - FCS Team 17 Florida State 41 - FCS Team 24
Georgia 26 - Auburn 27 0.525 Georgia 27 - Auburn 6 -22
Georgia State 35 - East Carolina 28 0.647 Georgia State 49 - East Carolina 29 -13
Iowa State 31 - Oklahoma 41 0.74 Iowa State 37 - Oklahoma 30 -17
Kansas 17 - Oklahoma State 38 0.942 Kansas 7 - Oklahoma State 47 19
Kansas State 42 - Texas Tech 41 0.539 Kansas State 31 - Texas Tech 21 -9
Kentucky 34 - Mississippi 31 0.555 Kentucky 41 - Mississippi 42 4
Liberty 42 - FCS Team 20 Liberty 28 - FCS Team 7
Louisiana Monroe 10 - Georgia Southern 31 0.857 Louisiana Monroe 30 - Georgia Southern 35 -16
Middle Tennessee 20 - Western Kentucky 31 0.751 Middle Tennessee 17 - Western Kentucky 20 -8
Miss State 42 - Arkansas 24 0.862 Miss State 14 - Arkansas 21 25
North Texas 28 - Southern Miss 31 0.557 North Texas 31 - Southern Miss 41 7
Pittsburgh 31 - NC State 24 0.722 Pittsburgh 29 - NC State 30 8
Southern Methodist 34 - Memphis 45 0.778 Southern Methodist 30 - Memphis 27 -14
Tennessee 29 - Missouri 28 0.522 Tennessee 35 - Missouri 12 -22
Texas 41 - Texas Christian 31 0.743 Texas 31 - Texas Christian 33 12
Vanderbilt 20 - Louisiana State 41 0.886 Vanderbilt 7 - Louisiana State 41 13
Wake Forest 45 - FCS Team 20 Wake Forest 66 - FCS Team 14
West Virginia 24 - Baylor 31 0.729 West Virginia 27 - Baylor 21 -13


Number of FBS Games: 28
Number Correct: 18 = 64.2%
Expected Number Correct: 20.895 = 74.6%
Average Error: 13.03
Average Signed Error: -3.83

WEEK 6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas State 41 - FCS Team 20 Arkansas State 50 - FCS Team 27
Army 38 - FCS Team 10 Army 14 - FCS Team 9
Auburn 31 - Arkansas 17 0.781 Auburn 30 - Arkansas 28 12
Boston College 21 - Pittsburgh 20 0.523 Boston College 31 - Pittsburgh 30 0
Brigham Young 42 - Texas San Antonio 13 0.968 Brigham Young 27 - Texas San Antonio 20 22
Clemson 38 - Miami FL 21 0.807 Clemson 42 - Miami FL 17 -8
Florida International 28 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.659 Florida International 28 - Middle Tennessee 31 7
Georgia 34 - Tennessee 20 0.813 Georgia 44 - Tennessee 21 -9
Georgia Tech 27 - Louisville 35 0.753 Georgia Tech 46 - Louisville 27 -27
Houston 31 - Tulane 34 0.527 Houston 49 - Tulane 31 -21
Iowa State 41 - Texas Tech 34 0.669 Iowa State 31 - Texas Tech 15 -9
Kentucky 27 - Miss State 34 0.647 Kentucky 24 - Miss State 2 -29
Liberty 34 - Louisiana Monroe 20 0.782 Liberty 40 - Louisiana Monroe 7 -19
Louisiana State 38 - Missouri 24 0.772 Louisiana State 41 - Missouri 45 18
Louisiana Tech 28 - Texas El Paso 13 0.787 Louisiana Tech 21 - Texas El Paso 17 11
Mississippi 31 - Alabama 52 0.973 Mississippi 48 - Alabama 63 -6
Navy 24 - Temple 21 0.538 Navy 31 - Temple 29 1
North Carolina 32 - Virginia Tech 31 0.521 North Carolina 56 - Virginia Tech 45 -10
North Texas 24 - Charlotte 31 0.716 North Texas 21 - Charlotte 49 21
Notre Dame 38 - Florida State 13 0.937 Notre Dame 42 - Florida State 26 9
Oklahoma 40 - Texas 41 0.519 Oklahoma 53 - Texas 45 -9
South Florida 31 - East Carolina 27 0.65 South Florida 24 - East Carolina 44 24
Syracuse 24 - Duke 27 0.53 Syracuse 24 - Duke 38 11
Texas AM 28 - Florida 38 0.773 Texas AM 41 - Florida 38 -13
Texas Christian 31 - Kansas State 27 0.606 Texas Christian 14 - Kansas State 21 11
Troy 31 - Texas State 21 0.721 Troy 37 - Texas State 17 -10
Vanderbilt 17 - South Carolina 28 0.793 Vanderbilt 7 - South Carolina 41 23
Virginia 35 - NC State 31 0.707 Virginia 21 - NC State 38 21
Western Kentucky 13 - Marshall 21 0.742 Western Kentucky 14 - Marshall 38 16


Number of FBS Games: 27
Number Correct: 17 = 62.9%
Expected Number Correct: 19.214 = 71.1%
Average Error: 13.96
Average Signed Error: 1.37

WEEK 7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 34 - Georgia 35 0.501 Alabama 41 - Georgia 24 -18
Alabama Birmingham 21 - Western Kentucky 14 0.706 Alabama Birmingham 37 - Western Kentucky 14 -16
Arkansas 38 - Mississippi 41 0.597 Arkansas 33 - Mississippi 21 -15
Arkansas State 31 - Georgia State 34 0.544 Arkansas State 59 - Georgia State 52 -10
East Carolina 27 - Navy 35 0.725 East Carolina 23 - Navy 27 -4
Florida State 24 - North Carolina 38 0.804 Florida State 31 - North Carolina 28 -17
Georgia Southern 42 - Massachusetts 20 0.876 Georgia Southern 41 - Massachusetts 0 -19
Georgia Tech 14 - Clemson 45 0.965 Georgia Tech 7 - Clemson 73 35
Houston 27 - Brigham Young 35 0.668 Houston 26 - Brigham Young 43 9
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Coastal Carolina 27 0.57 Louisiana Lafayette 27 - Coastal Carolina 30 7
Louisiana Tech 13 - Marshall 24 0.786 Louisiana Tech 17 - Marshall 35 7
Memphis 34 - Central Florida 35 0.56 Memphis 50 - Central Florida 49 -2
Miami FL 28 - Pittsburgh 21 0.688 Miami FL 31 - Pittsburgh 19 -5
Middle Tennessee 34 - North Texas 27 0.675 Middle Tennessee 35 - North Texas 52 24
Miss State 24 - Texas AM 28 0.582 Miss State 14 - Texas AM 28 10
NC State 34 - Duke 27 0.637 NC State 31 - Duke 20 -4
Notre Dame 42 - Louisville 24 0.867 Notre Dame 12 - Louisville 7 13
South Alabama 21 - Texas State 24 0.56 South Alabama 30 - Texas State 20 -13
South Carolina 21 - Auburn 31 0.734 South Carolina 30 - Auburn 22 -18
Syracuse 26 - Liberty 27 0.512 Syracuse 21 - Liberty 38 16
Temple 31 - South Florida 20 0.778 Temple 39 - South Florida 37 9
Tennessee 28 - Kentucky 24 0.592 Tennessee 7 - Kentucky 34 31
Texas San Antonio 14 - Army 27 0.739 Texas San Antonio 16 - Army 28 -1
Troy 41 - FCS Team 14 Troy 31 - FCS Team 29
Tulane 31 - Southern Methodist 35 0.616 Tulane 34 - Southern Methodist 37 -1
Virginia Tech 34 - Boston College 28 0.61 Virginia Tech 40 - Boston College 14 -20
Wake Forest 31 - Virginia 34 0.53 Wake Forest 40 - Virginia 23 -20
West Virginia 38 - Kansas 17 0.896 West Virginia 38 - Kansas 17 0


Number of FBS Games: 27
Number Correct: 16 = 59.2%
Expected Number Correct: 18.318 = 67.8%
Average Error: 12.74
Average Signed Error: -0.82

WEEK 8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 20 0.528 Alabama Birmingham 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 5
Appalachian State 34 - Arkansas State 24 0.766 Appalachian State 45 - Arkansas State 17 -18
Army 35 - FCS Team 10 Army 49 - FCS Team 3
Boise State 38 - Utah State 24 0.767 Boise State 42 - Utah State 13 -15
Boston College 28 - Georgia Tech 24 0.639 Boston College 48 - Georgia Tech 27 -17
Brigham Young 41 - Texas State 13 0.96 Brigham Young 52 - Texas State 14 -10
Central Florida 41 - Tulane 31 0.747 Central Florida 51 - Tulane 34 -7
Charlotte 27 - Texas El Paso 13 0.79 Charlotte 38 - Texas El Paso 28 4
Clemson 49 - Syracuse 13 0.985 Clemson 47 - Syracuse 21 10
Coastal Carolina 31 - Georgia Southern 24 0.664 Coastal Carolina 28 - Georgia Southern 14 -7
Florida International 34 - FCS Team 21 Florida International 10 - FCS Team 19
Fresno State 31 - Hawaii 34 0.542 Fresno State 19 - Hawaii 34 12
Indiana 24 - Penn State 38 0.803 Indiana 36 - Penn State 35 -15
Kansas State 35 - Kansas 17 0.933 Kansas State 55 - Kansas 14 -23
Liberty 34 - Southern Miss 24 0.713 Liberty 56 - Southern Miss 35 -11
Louisiana State 38 - South Carolina 34 0.578 Louisiana State 52 - South Carolina 24 -24
Louisville 28 - Florida State 31 0.541 Louisville 48 - Florida State 16 -35
Marshall 21 - Florida Atlantic 20 0.503 Marshall 20 - Florida Atlantic 9 -10
Memphis 42 - Temple 28 0.844 Memphis 41 - Temple 29 2
Miami FL 34 - Virginia 24 0.733 Miami FL 19 - Virginia 14 5
Michigan State 31 - Rutgers 13 0.812 Michigan State 27 - Rutgers 38 29
Minnesota 27 - Michigan 34 0.658 Minnesota 24 - Michigan 49 18
Mississippi 31 - Auburn 38 0.698 Mississippi 28 - Auburn 35 0
Missouri 24 - Kentucky 31 0.65 Missouri 20 - Kentucky 10 -17
Navy 27 - Houston 34 0.704 Navy 21 - Houston 37 9
Nevada 14 - Wyoming 27 0.763 Nevada 37 - Wyoming 34 -16
North Carolina 35 - NC State 34 0.519 North Carolina 48 - NC State 21 -26
Northwestern 31 - Maryland 21 0.694 Northwestern 43 - Maryland 3 -30
Ohio State 48 - Nebraska 24 0.933 Ohio State 52 - Nebraska 17 -11
Oklahoma State 31 - Iowa State 24 0.724 Oklahoma State 24 - Iowa State 21 4
Pittsburgh 17 - Notre Dame 28 0.798 Pittsburgh 4 - Notre Dame 45 30
Purdue 20 - Iowa 34 0.836 Purdue 24 - Iowa 20 -18
Rice 21 - Middle Tennessee 20 0.525 Rice 34 - Middle Tennessee 40 7
San Diego State 28 - Nevada Las Vegas 10 0.812 San Diego State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 6 -10
San Jose State 20 - Air Force 38 0.93 San Jose State 17 - Air Force 6 -29
South Alabama 27 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.731 South Alabama 38 - Louisiana Monroe 14 -14
South Florida 14 - Tulsa 31 0.866 South Florida 13 - Tulsa 42 12
Southern Methodist 21 - Cincinnati 27 0.614 Southern Methodist 13 - Cincinnati 42 23
Tennessee 24 - Alabama 45 0.901 Tennessee 17 - Alabama 48 10
Texas 39 - Baylor 38 0.521 Texas 27 - Baylor 16 -10
Texas Christian 31 - Oklahoma 38 0.708 Texas Christian 14 - Oklahoma 33 12
Texas San Antonio 21 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.567 Texas San Antonio 27 - Louisiana Tech 26 -4
Texas Tech 28 - West Virginia 38 0.734 Texas Tech 34 - West Virginia 27 -17
Troy 35 - Georgia State 31 0.595 Troy 34 - Georgia State 36 6
Wake Forest 35 - Virginia Tech 38 0.552 Wake Forest 23 - Virginia Tech 16 -10
Western Kentucky 34 - FCS Team 17 Western Kentucky 13 - FCS Team 10
Wisconsin 38 - Illinois 17 0.867 Wisconsin 45 - Illinois 7 -17


Number of FBS Games: 44
Number Correct: 31 = 70.4%
Expected Number Correct: 31.748 = 72.1%
Average Error: 14.06
Average Signed Error: -5.07

NOTE: From week 9 onward, the home field advantage is set to 2 for predictions.

WEEK 9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Boise State 28 0.625 Air Force 30 - Boise State 49 15
Alabama 45 - Miss State 17 0.959 Alabama 41 - Miss State 0 -13
Arkansas State 32 - Troy 31 0.507 Arkansas State 10 - Troy 38 29
Auburn 31 - Louisiana State 35 0.558 Auburn 48 - Louisiana State 11 -41
Baylor 25 - Texas Christian 24 0.53 Baylor 23 - Texas Christian 33 11
Brigham Young 38 - Western Kentucky 13 0.952 Brigham Young 41 - Western Kentucky 10 -6
Cincinnati 31 - Memphis 24 0.704 Cincinnati 49 - Memphis 10 -32
Clemson 45 - Boston College 17 0.966 Clemson 34 - Boston College 28 22
Duke 27 - Charlotte 24 0.542 Duke 53 - Charlotte 19 -31
Florida 35 - Missouri 28 0.678 Florida 41 - Missouri 17 -17
Florida Atlantic 27 - Texas San Antonio 14 0.791 Florida Atlantic 24 - Texas San Antonio 3 -8
Fresno State 31 - Colorado State 27 0.637 Fresno State 38 - Colorado State 17 -17
Georgia Southern 24 - South Alabama 17 0.721 Georgia Southern 24 - South Alabama 17 0
Georgia State 31 - Coastal Carolina 38 0.65 Georgia State 0 - Coastal Carolina 51 44
Georgia Tech 17 - Notre Dame 38 0.851 Georgia Tech 13 - Notre Dame 31 -3
Houston 37 - Central Florida 38 0.5 Houston 21 - Central Florida 44 22
Illinois 24 - Purdue 31 0.745 Illinois 24 - Purdue 31 0
Iowa 24 - Northwestern 20 0.651 Iowa 20 - Northwestern 21 5
Kansas 17 - Iowa State 41 0.95 Kansas 22 - Iowa State 52 6
Kentucky 17 - Georgia 28 0.756 Kentucky 3 - Georgia 14 0
Louisiana Monroe 6 - Appalachian State 38 0.981 Louisiana Monroe 13 - Appalachian State 31 -14
Louisiana Tech 17 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.701 Louisiana Tech 37 - Alabama Birmingham 34 -10
Louisville 31 - Virginia Tech 35 0.615 Louisville 35 - Virginia Tech 42 3
Maryland 17 - Minnesota 38 0.86 Maryland 45 - Minnesota 44 -22
Michigan 42 - Michigan State 17 0.94 Michigan 24 - Michigan State 27 28
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Nevada 31 0.689 Nevada Las Vegas 19 - Nevada 37 11
New Mexico 17 - San Jose State 34 0.875 New Mexico 21 - San Jose State 38 0
Oklahoma State 35 - Texas 31 0.64 Oklahoma State 34 - Texas 41 11
Penn State 31 - Ohio State 45 0.855 Penn State 25 - Ohio State 38 -1
Rutgers 24 - Indiana 38 0.775 Rutgers 21 - Indiana 37 2
Southern Methodist 31 - Navy 27 0.643 Southern Methodist 51 - Navy 37 -10
Southern Miss 34 - Rice 24 0.723 Southern Miss 6 - Rice 30 34
Syracuse 24 - Wake Forest 34 0.731 Syracuse 14 - Wake Forest 38 14
Texas AM 31 - Arkansas 24 0.724 Texas AM 42 - Arkansas 31 -4
Texas State 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.857 Texas State 34 - Louisiana Lafayette 44 -4
Texas Tech 35 - Oklahoma 48 0.786 Texas Tech 28 - Oklahoma 62 21
Tulane 34 - Temple 31 0.612 Tulane 38 - Temple 3 -32
Tulsa 35 - East Carolina 20 0.875 Tulsa 34 - East Carolina 30 11
Utah State 17 - San Diego State 28 0.791 Utah State 7 - San Diego State 38 20
Vanderbilt 24 - Mississippi 38 0.77 Vanderbilt 21 - Mississippi 54 19
Virginia 28 - North Carolina 34 0.608 Virginia 44 - North Carolina 41 -9
West Virginia 27 - Kansas State 31 0.643 West Virginia 37 - Kansas State 10 -31
Wyoming 28 - Hawaii 31 0.58 Wyoming 31 - Hawaii 7 -27


Number of FBS Games: 43
Number Correct: 31 = 72%
Expected Number Correct: 31.547 = 73.3%
Average Error: 15.34
Average Signed Error: -0.1

WEEK 10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 10 - Western Michigan 31 0.826 Akron 13 - Western Michigan 58 24
Arkansas 31 - Tennessee 28 0.525 Arkansas 24 - Tennessee 13 -8
Boise State 35 - Brigham Young 31 0.582 Boise State 17 - Brigham Young 51 38
Central Michigan 24 - Ohio 31 0.622 Central Michigan 30 - Ohio 27 -10
Cincinnati 34 - Houston 17 0.779 Cincinnati 38 - Houston 10 -11
Coastal Carolina 34 - South Alabama 13 0.833 Coastal Carolina 23 - South Alabama 6 4
Colorado 32 - UCLA 31 0.511 Colorado 48 - UCLA 42 -5
Colorado State 14 - Wyoming 35 0.877 Colorado State 34 - Wyoming 24 -31
Duke 31 - North Carolina 35 0.592 Duke 24 - North Carolina 56 28
East Carolina 28 - Tulane 34 0.666 East Carolina 21 - Tulane 38 11
Florida Atlantic 24 - Western Kentucky 10 0.829 Florida Atlantic 10 - Western Kentucky 6 10
Florida State 24 - Pittsburgh 27 0.549 Florida State 17 - Pittsburgh 41 21
Georgia 31 - Florida 24 0.735 Georgia 28 - Florida 44 23
Georgia Southern 20 - Troy 21 0.523 Georgia Southern 20 - Troy 13 -8
Georgia State 34 - Louisiana Monroe 21 0.735 Georgia State 52 - Louisiana Monroe 34 -5
Hawaii 31 - New Mexico 24 0.745 Hawaii 39 - New Mexico 33 1
Illinois 34 - Minnesota 31 0.55 Illinois 14 - Minnesota 41 30
Indiana 34 - Michigan 31 0.551 Indiana 38 - Michigan 21 -14
Iowa 24 - Michigan State 17 0.703 Iowa 49 - Michigan State 7 -35
Iowa State 31 - Baylor 24 0.729 Iowa State 38 - Baylor 31 0
Kansas State 24 - Oklahoma State 28 0.653 Kansas State 18 - Oklahoma State 20 -2
Kent State 29 - Eastern Michigan 28 0.535 Kent State 27 - Eastern Michigan 23 -3
Louisiana Lafayette 35 - Arkansas State 24 0.787 Louisiana Lafayette 27 - Arkansas State 20 4
Marshall 41 - Massachusetts 0 0.992 Marshall 51 - Massachusetts 10 0
Memphis 41 - South Florida 21 0.832 Memphis 34 - South Florida 33 19
Miami OH 25 - Ball State 24 0.542 Miami OH 38 - Ball State 31 -6
Miss State 28 - Vanderbilt 13 0.833 Miss State 24 - Vanderbilt 17 8
NC State 27 - Miami FL 31 0.623 NC State 41 - Miami FL 44 -1
Nevada 35 - Utah State 24 0.764 Nevada 34 - Utah State 9 -14
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - Fresno State 27 0.655 Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Fresno State 40 10
Northern Illinois 17 - Buffalo 24 0.685 Northern Illinois 30 - Buffalo 49 12
Northwestern 31 - Nebraska 21 0.732 Northwestern 21 - Nebraska 13 2
Notre Dame 24 - Clemson 34 0.694 Notre Dame 47 - Clemson 40 -17
Ohio State 52 - Rutgers 20 0.978 Ohio State 49 - Rutgers 27 10
Oklahoma 56 - Kansas 21 0.982 Oklahoma 62 - Kansas 9 -18
Oregon 38 - Stanford 17 0.821 Oregon 35 - Stanford 14 0
Oregon State 38 - Washington State 42 0.637 Oregon State 28 - Washington State 38 6
Penn State 48 - Maryland 17 0.963 Penn State 19 - Maryland 35 47
San Diego State 27 - San Jose State 17 0.787 San Diego State 17 - San Jose State 28 21
South Carolina 28 - Texas AM 31 0.608 South Carolina 3 - Texas AM 48 42
Southern California 35 - Arizona State 28 0.67 Southern California 28 - Arizona State 27 6
Southern Miss 31 - FCS Team 21 Southern Miss 24 - FCS Team 13
Syracuse 24 - Boston College 31 0.678 Syracuse 13 - Boston College 16 -4
Temple 28 - Southern Methodist 35 0.753 Temple 23 - Southern Methodist 47 17
Texas 38 - West Virginia 28 0.68 Texas 17 - West Virginia 13 6
Texas Christian 35 - Texas Tech 28 0.731 Texas Christian 34 - Texas Tech 18 -9
Texas State 17 - Appalachian State 31 0.881 Texas State 17 - Appalachian State 38 7
Toledo 34 - Bowling Green 20 0.756 Toledo 38 - Bowling Green 3 -21
Virginia Tech 41 - Liberty 31 0.778 Virginia Tech 35 - Liberty 38 13


Number of FBS Games: 48
Number Correct: 38 = 79.1%
Expected Number Correct: 34.492 = 71.8%
Average Error: 13.37
Average Signed Error: 4.12

WEEK 11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 38 - Georgia State 21 0.828 Appalachian State 17 - Georgia State 13 13
Arizona 27 - Southern California 38 0.812 Arizona 30 - Southern California 34 -7
Ball State 28 - Eastern Michigan 27 0.569 Ball State 38 - Eastern Michigan 31 -6
Boise State 38 - Colorado State 24 0.765 Boise State 52 - Colorado State 21 -17
Boston College 17 - Notre Dame 31 0.764 Boston College 31 - Notre Dame 45 0
Bowling Green 10 - Kent State 28 0.924 Bowling Green 24 - Kent State 62 20
Buffalo 34 - Miami OH 28 0.692 Buffalo 42 - Miami OH 10 -26
Central Florida 45 - Temple 24 0.943 Central Florida 38 - Temple 13 -4
Cincinnati 38 - East Carolina 10 0.959 Cincinnati 55 - East Carolina 17 -10
Florida 41 - Arkansas 24 0.849 Florida 63 - Arkansas 35 -11
Florida International 14 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.715 Florida International 19 - Florida Atlantic 38 12
Georgia Southern 31 - Texas State 14 0.858 Georgia Southern 40 - Texas State 38 15
Houston 38 - South Florida 21 0.806 Houston 56 - South Florida 21 -18
Kentucky 31 - Vanderbilt 7 0.882 Kentucky 38 - Vanderbilt 35 21
Liberty 45 - FCS Team 17 Liberty 58 - FCS Team 14
Louisiana Lafayette 27 - South Alabama 14 0.797 Louisiana Lafayette 38 - South Alabama 10 -15
Marshall 35 - Middle Tennessee 14 0.909 Marshall 42 - Middle Tennessee 14 -7
Michigan 21 - Wisconsin 31 0.716 Michigan 11 - Wisconsin 49 28
Michigan State 24 - Indiana 34 0.753 Michigan State 0 - Indiana 24 14
Minnesota 24 - Iowa 35 0.733 Minnesota 7 - Iowa 35 17
Mississippi 41 - South Carolina 31 0.703 Mississippi 59 - South Carolina 42 -7
NC State 38 - Florida State 27 0.747 NC State 38 - Florida State 22 -5
Nebraska 27 - Penn State 28 0.528 Nebraska 30 - Penn State 23 -8
New Mexico 28 - Nevada 35 0.742 New Mexico 20 - Nevada 27 0
North Carolina 35 - Wake Forest 34 0.553 North Carolina 59 - Wake Forest 53 -5
Northern Illinois 24 - Central Michigan 31 0.66 Northern Illinois 10 - Central Michigan 40 23
Ohio 38 - Akron 7 0.99 Ohio 24 - Akron 10 17
Purdue 20 - Northwestern 27 0.665 Purdue 20 - Northwestern 27 0
Rutgers 31 - Illinois 24 0.712 Rutgers 20 - Illinois 23 10
San Diego State 28 - Hawaii 17 0.767 San Diego State 34 - Hawaii 10 -13
San Jose State 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 13 0.978 San Jose State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 5
Stanford 34 - Colorado 28 0.665 Stanford 32 - Colorado 35 9
Texas San Antonio 27 - Texas El Paso 14 0.747 Texas San Antonio 52 - Texas El Paso 21 -18
Texas Tech 34 - Baylor 35 0.564 Texas Tech 24 - Baylor 23 -2
Tulane 20 - Army 24 0.628 Tulane 38 - Army 12 -30
Tulsa 31 - Southern Methodist 28 0.634 Tulsa 28 - Southern Methodist 24 -1
UCLA 27 - California 31 0.6 UCLA 34 - California 10 -28
Utah State 21 - Fresno State 31 0.748 Utah State 16 - Fresno State 35 9
Virginia 34 - Louisville 28 0.611 Virginia 31 - Louisville 17 -8
Virginia Tech 32 - Miami FL 31 0.521 Virginia Tech 24 - Miami FL 25 2
Washington 38 - Oregon State 17 0.887 Washington 27 - Oregon State 21 15
Washington State 31 - Oregon 38 0.704 Washington State 29 - Oregon 43 7
West Virginia 24 - Texas Christian 21 0.535 West Virginia 24 - Texas Christian 6 -15
Western Kentucky 27 - Southern Miss 17 0.748 Western Kentucky 10 - Southern Miss 7 7
Western Michigan 31 - Toledo 27 0.635 Western Michigan 41 - Toledo 38 1


Number of FBS Games: 44
Number Correct: 37 = 84%
Expected Number Correct: 32.546 = 73.9%
Average Error: 11.5
Average Signed Error: -0.37

WEEK 12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - New Mexico 20 0.845 Air Force 28 - New Mexico 0 -14
Alabama 42 - Kentucky 17 0.963 Alabama 63 - Kentucky 3 -35
Arkansas 34 - Louisiana State 35 0.53 Arkansas 24 - Louisiana State 27 2
Army 20 - Georgia Southern 17 0.561 Army 28 - Georgia Southern 27 2
Auburn 31 - Tennessee 17 0.762 Auburn 30 - Tennessee 17 1
Ball State 34 - Northern Illinois 28 0.606 Ball State 31 - Northern Illinois 25 0
Bowling Green 13 - Buffalo 45 0.986 Bowling Green 17 - Buffalo 42 -7
Brigham Young 49 - FCS Team 6 Brigham Young 66 - FCS Team 14
Central Florida 27 - Cincinnati 34 0.637 Central Florida 33 - Cincinnati 36 -4
Central Michigan 32 - Western Michigan 31 0.512 Central Michigan 44 - Western Michigan 52 9
Coastal Carolina 21 - Appalachian State 17 0.629 Coastal Carolina 34 - Appalachian State 23 -7
Eastern Michigan 21 - Toledo 27 0.676 Eastern Michigan 28 - Toledo 45 11
Florida Atlantic 35 - Massachusetts 6 0.989 Florida Atlantic 24 - Massachusetts 2 7
Georgia 28 - Miss State 10 0.91 Georgia 31 - Miss State 24 11
Hawaii 24 - Boise State 38 0.774 Hawaii 32 - Boise State 40 -6
Iowa State 31 - Kansas State 27 0.656 Iowa State 45 - Kansas State 0 -41
Kent State 34 - Akron 14 0.912 Kent State 69 - Akron 35 -14
Louisville 31 - Syracuse 24 0.65 Louisville 30 - Syracuse 0 -23
Memphis 45 - FCS Team 20 Memphis 56 - FCS Team 14
Minnesota 28 - Purdue 34 0.617 Minnesota 34 - Purdue 31 -9
NC State 38 - Liberty 35 0.579 NC State 15 - Liberty 14 2
Nebraska 31 - Illinois 20 0.782 Nebraska 23 - Illinois 41 29
Nevada 20 - San Diego State 24 0.695 Nevada 26 - San Diego State 21 -9
North Texas 28 - Rice 31 0.599 North Texas 27 - Rice 17 -13
Northwestern 20 - Wisconsin 27 0.696 Northwestern 17 - Wisconsin 7 -17
Ohio State 42 - Indiana 27 0.817 Ohio State 42 - Indiana 35 8
Oklahoma 41 - Oklahoma State 31 0.732 Oklahoma 41 - Oklahoma State 13 -18
Oregon 42 - UCLA 24 0.88 Oregon 38 - UCLA 35 15
Oregon State 27 - California 17 0.753 Oregon State 31 - California 27 6
Penn State 20 - Iowa 31 0.753 Penn State 21 - Iowa 41 9
Pittsburgh 27 - Virginia Tech 31 0.64 Pittsburgh 47 - Virginia Tech 14 -37
Rutgers 24 - Michigan 34 0.697 Rutgers 42 - Michigan 48 -4
South Alabama 26 - Georgia State 27 0.502 South Alabama 14 - Georgia State 31 16
South Carolina 27 - Missouri 31 0.571 South Carolina 10 - Missouri 17 3
Southern Miss 21 - Texas San Antonio 27 0.623 Southern Miss 20 - Texas San Antonio 23 -3
Temple 31 - East Carolina 28 0.531 Temple 3 - East Carolina 28 28
Texas State 31 - Arkansas State 34 0.548 Texas State 47 - Arkansas State 45 -5
Troy 34 - Middle Tennessee 17 0.788 Troy 17 - Middle Tennessee 20 20
Tulsa 28 - Tulane 27 0.566 Tulsa 30 - Tulane 24 -5
Utah 31 - Southern California 20 0.761 Utah 17 - Southern California 33 27
Vanderbilt 20 - Florida 48 0.953 Vanderbilt 17 - Florida 38 -7
Virginia 41 - FCS Team 13 Virginia 55 - FCS Team 15
Washington 35 - Arizona 20 0.859 Washington 44 - Arizona 27 -2
Western Kentucky 24 - Florida International 20 0.657 Western Kentucky 38 - Florida International 21 -13


Number of FBS Games: 41
Number Correct: 30 = 73.1%
Expected Number Correct: 29.197 = 71.2%
Average Error: 12.17
Average Signed Error: -2.13

WEEK 13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Miami OH 31 0.778 Akron 7 - Miami OH 38 17
Alabama 42 - Auburn 21 0.842 Alabama 42 - Auburn 13 -8
Appalachian State 24 - Troy 14 0.735 Appalachian State 47 - Troy 10 -27
Arkansas State 28 - South Alabama 24 0.641 Arkansas State 31 - South Alabama 38 11
Baylor 28 - Kansas State 24 0.58 Baylor 32 - Kansas State 31 3
Boston College 28 - Louisville 27 0.568 Boston College 34 - Louisville 27 -6
Buffalo 41 - Kent State 34 0.734 Buffalo 70 - Kent State 41 -22
California 20 - Stanford 24 0.711 California 23 - Stanford 24 -3
Charlotte 20 - Western Kentucky 21 0.573
Clemson 42 - Pittsburgh 24 0.811 Clemson 52 - Pittsburgh 17 -17
Colorado 27 - San Diego State 31 0.597 Colorado 20 - San Diego State 10 -14
East Carolina 31 - Southern Methodist 35 0.715 East Carolina 52 - Southern Methodist 38 -18
Eastern Michigan 24 - Central Michigan 31 0.704 Eastern Michigan 23 - Central Michigan 31 1
Florida 41 - Kentucky 21 0.828 Florida 34 - Kentucky 10 -4
Georgia State 27 - Georgia Southern 28 0.572 Georgia State 30 - Georgia Southern 24 -7
Georgia Tech 28 - Duke 34 0.556 Georgia Tech 56 - Duke 33 -29
Hawaii 24 - Nevada 31 0.666 Hawaii 24 - Nevada 21 -10
Indiana 38 - Maryland 27 0.753 Indiana 27 - Maryland 11 -5
Iowa 38 - Nebraska 17 0.868 Iowa 26 - Nebraska 20 15
Kansas 17 - Texas Christian 38 0.879 Kansas 23 - Texas Christian 59 15
Liberty 38 - Massachusetts 14 0.983 Liberty 45 - Massachusetts 0 -21
Louisiana Monroe 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 38 0.901 Louisiana Monroe 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 70 26
Michigan 34 - Penn State 31 0.572 Michigan 17 - Penn State 27 13
Michigan State 6 - Northwestern 27 0.866 Michigan State 29 - Northwestern 20 -30
Mississippi 38 - Miss State 31 0.698 Mississippi 31 - Miss State 24 0
Missouri 27 - Arkansas 24 0.572 Missouri 41 - Arkansas 0 -38
Navy 31 - Memphis 35 0.577 Navy 7 - Memphis 10 -1
Nevada Las Vegas 20 - Wyoming 31 0.736 Nevada Las Vegas 14 - Wyoming 45 20
North Carolina 34 - Notre Dame 41 0.655 North Carolina 17 - Notre Dame 31 7
Ohio 31 - Bowling Green 10 0.921 Ohio 52 - Bowling Green 10 -21
Oklahoma State 35 - Texas Tech 24 0.779 Oklahoma State 50 - Texas Tech 44 5
Oregon State 24 - Oregon 38 0.896 Oregon State 41 - Oregon 38 -17
Purdue 38 - Rutgers 24 0.835 Purdue 30 - Rutgers 37 21
South Carolina 17 - Georgia 34 0.795 South Carolina 16 - Georgia 45 12
South Florida 24 - Central Florida 45 0.911 South Florida 46 - Central Florida 58 -9
Syracuse 21 - NC State 31 0.736 Syracuse 29 - NC State 36 -3
Texas 35 - Iowa State 34 0.519 Texas 20 - Iowa State 23 4
Texas AM 38 - Louisiana State 28 0.686 Texas AM 20 - Louisiana State 7 -3
Texas San Antonio 31 - North Texas 24 0.67 Texas San Antonio 49 - North Texas 17 -25
Texas State 20 - Coastal Carolina 38 0.849 Texas State 14 - Coastal Carolina 49 17
Toledo 38 - Ball State 24 0.844 Toledo 24 - Ball State 27 17
UCLA 41 - Arizona 31 0.761 UCLA 27 - Arizona 10 -7
Utah State 25 - New Mexico 24 0.51 Utah State 41 - New Mexico 27 -13
Washington 28 - Utah 20 0.718 Washington 24 - Utah 21 5
Western Michigan 45 - Northern Illinois 24 0.943 Western Michigan 30 - Northern Illinois 27 18


Number of FBS Games: 45
Number Correct: 32 = 71.1%
Expected Number Correct: 33.044 = 73.4%
Average Error: 13
Average Signed Error: -2.92

WEEK 14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 24 - Bowling Green 21 0.54 Akron 31 - Bowling Green 3 -25
Appalachian State 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 0.625 Appalachian State 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 9
Arizona 27 - Colorado 35 0.762 Arizona 13 - Colorado 24 3
Arizona State 30 - UCLA 31 0.503 Arizona State 18 - UCLA 25 6
Arkansas State 41 - Louisiana Monroe 27 0.786 Arkansas State 48 - Louisiana Monroe 15 -19
Auburn 24 - Texas AM 27 0.537 Auburn 20 - Texas AM 31 8
California 24 - Oregon 35 0.823 California 21 - Oregon 17 -15
Central Michigan 34 - Ball State 27 0.726 Central Michigan 20 - Ball State 45 32
Charlotte 20 - Western Kentucky 21 0.594 Charlotte 19 - Western Kentucky 37 17
Coastal Carolina 24 - Brigham Young 28 0.608 Coastal Carolina 22 - Brigham Young 17 -9
Duke 24 - Miami FL 38 0.756 Duke 0 - Miami FL 48 34
Georgia Southern 16 - Florida Atlantic 17 0.523 Georgia Southern 20 - Florida Atlantic 3 -18
Hawaii 21 - San Jose State 27 0.687 Hawaii 24 - San Jose State 35 5
Illinois 17 - Iowa 34 0.806 Illinois 21 - Iowa 35 -3
Iowa State 27 - West Virginia 20 0.675 Iowa State 42 - West Virginia 6 -29
Kansas State 24 - Texas 31 0.706 Kansas State 31 - Texas 69 31
Kentucky 28 - South Carolina 21 0.642 Kentucky 41 - South Carolina 18 -16
Louisiana State 24 - Alabama 48 0.867 Louisiana State 17 - Alabama 55 14
Marshall 31 - Rice 6 0.945 Marshall 0 - Rice 20 45
Michigan State 21 - Ohio State 41 0.84 Michigan State 12 - Ohio State 52 20
Missouri 31 - Arkansas 20 0.723 Missouri 50 - Arkansas 48 9
Navy 17 - Tulsa 27 0.742 Navy 6 - Tulsa 19 3
NC State 38 - Georgia Tech 28 0.688 NC State 23 - Georgia Tech 13 0
Nevada 27 - Fresno State 24 0.59 Nevada 37 - Fresno State 26 -8
New Mexico 20 - Wyoming 34 0.802 New Mexico 17 - Wyoming 16 -15
North Carolina 52 - FCS Team 17 North Carolina 49 - FCS Team 9
North Texas 24 - Louisiana Tech 34 0.743 North Texas 31 - Louisiana Tech 42 1
Northern Illinois 24 - Toledo 31 0.694 Northern Illinois 24 - Toledo 41 10
Notre Dame 38 - Syracuse 10 0.945 Notre Dame 45 - Syracuse 21 4
Oklahoma 45 - Baylor 27 0.9 Oklahoma 27 - Baylor 14 5
Purdue 31 - Nebraska 27 0.593 Purdue 27 - Nebraska 37 14
Rutgers 28 - Penn State 34 0.619 Rutgers 7 - Penn State 23 10
San Diego State 28 - Colorado State 14 0.769 San Diego State 29 - Colorado State 17 2
South Alabama 17 - Troy 21 0.56 South Alabama 0 - Troy 29 25
Southern California 38 - Washington State 31 0.646 Southern California 38 - Washington State 13 -18
Tennessee 24 - Florida 38 0.814 Tennessee 19 - Florida 31 -2
Texas Christian 27 - Oklahoma State 28 0.525 Texas Christian 29 - Oklahoma State 22 -8
Texas Tech 49 - Kansas 28 0.89 Texas Tech 16 - Kansas 13 18
Tulane 34 - Memphis 27 0.638 Tulane 35 - Memphis 21 -7
Utah 31 - Oregon State 24 0.665 Utah 30 - Oregon State 24 1
Utah State 14 - Air Force 28 0.803 Utah State 7 - Air Force 35 14
Virginia 28 - Boston College 24 0.56 Virginia 43 - Boston College 32 -7
Virginia Tech 27 - Clemson 45 0.811 Virginia Tech 10 - Clemson 45 17
Washington 34 - Stanford 21 0.876 Washington 26 - Stanford 31 18
Western Michigan 41 - Eastern Michigan 27 0.864 Western Michigan 42 - Eastern Michigan 53 25
Wisconsin 28 - Indiana 20 0.732 Wisconsin 6 - Indiana 14 16


Number of FBS Games: 45
Number Correct: 33 = 73.3%
Expected Number Correct: 32.143 = 71.4%
Average Error: 13.66
Average Signed Error: 4.82

WEEK 15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 24 - Arizona State 28 0.726 Arizona 7 - Arizona State 70 59
Arkansas 20 - Alabama 52 0.967 Arkansas 3 - Alabama 52 17
Army 24 - Navy 14 0.722 Army 15 - Navy 0 -5
Ball State 38 - Western Michigan 35 0.574 Ball State 30 - Western Michigan 27 0
Baylor 27 - Oklahoma State 28 0.566 Baylor 3 - Oklahoma State 42 38
Brigham Young 28 - San Diego State 13 0.824 Brigham Young 28 - San Diego State 14 1
Buffalo 45 - Akron 13 0.944 Buffalo 56 - Akron 7 -17
Colorado 27 - Utah 21 0.66 Colorado 21 - Utah 38 23
Eastern Michigan 31 - Northern Illinois 24 0.704 Eastern Michigan 41 - Northern Illinois 33 -1
Florida 41 - Louisiana State 27 0.769 Florida 34 - Louisiana State 37 17
Florida State 31 - Duke 28 0.566 Florida State 56 - Duke 35 -18
Georgia Southern 17 - Appalachian State 24 0.681 Georgia Southern 26 - Appalachian State 34 1
Georgia Tech 27 - Pittsburgh 34 0.654 Georgia Tech 20 - Pittsburgh 34 7
Hawaii 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.802 Hawaii 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 -3
Iowa 21 - Wisconsin 20 0.526 Iowa 28 - Wisconsin 7 -20
Louisville 31 - Wake Forest 35 0.592 Louisville 45 - Wake Forest 21 -28
Maryland 31 - Rutgers 28 0.582 Maryland 24 - Rutgers 27 6
Memphis 31 - Houston 35 0.604 Memphis 30 - Houston 27 -7
Miami FL 38 - North Carolina 31 0.677 Miami FL 26 - North Carolina 62 43
Miss State 17 - Auburn 24 0.685 Miss State 10 - Auburn 24 7
Missouri 24 - Georgia 28 0.658 Missouri 14 - Georgia 49 31
Nebraska 34 - Minnesota 31 0.569 Nebraska 17 - Minnesota 24 10
New Mexico 24 - Fresno State 31 0.71 New Mexico 49 - Fresno State 39 -17
Northwestern 31 - Illinois 14 0.784 Northwestern 28 - Illinois 10 -1
Oregon State 28 - Stanford 31 0.615 Oregon State 24 - Stanford 27 0
Penn State 28 - Michigan State 20 0.716 Penn State 39 - Michigan State 24 -7
Rice 13 - Alabama Birmingham 20 0.622 Rice 16 - Alabama Birmingham 21 -2
San Jose State 27 - Nevada 21 0.702 San Jose State 30 - Nevada 20 -4
Southern Miss 13 - Florida Atlantic 20 0.687 Southern Miss 45 - Florida Atlantic 31 -21
Texas Christian 31 - Louisiana Tech 21 0.782 Texas Christian 52 - Louisiana Tech 10 -32
Texas El Paso 27 - North Texas 31 0.59 Texas El Paso 43 - North Texas 45 -2
Toledo 34 - Central Michigan 27 0.681 Toledo 24 - Central Michigan 23 6
Troy 14 - Coastal Carolina 28 0.749 Troy 38 - Coastal Carolina 42 -10
UCLA 30 - Southern California 31 0.529 UCLA 38 - Southern California 43 4
Vanderbilt 20 - Tennessee 28 0.683 Vanderbilt 17 - Tennessee 42 17
Virginia Tech 30 - Virginia 31 0.523 Virginia Tech 33 - Virginia 15 -19
Wyoming 27 - Boise State 35 0.706 Wyoming 9 - Boise State 17 0


Number of FBS Games: 37
Number Correct: 27 = 72.9%
Expected Number Correct: 25.131 = 67.9%
Average Error: 13.54
Average Signed Error: 1.97

WEEK 16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 14 - Air Force 17 0.556 Army 10 - Air Force 7 -6
Buffalo 38 - Ball State 28 0.703 Buffalo 28 - Ball State 38 20
Cincinnati 28 - Tulsa 14 0.829 Cincinnati 27 - Tulsa 24 11
Florida 27 - Alabama 45 0.88 Florida 46 - Alabama 52 -12
Iowa State 31 - Oklahoma 35 0.589 Iowa State 21 - Oklahoma 27 2
Louisiana State 42 - Mississippi 38 0.593 Louisiana State 53 - Mississippi 48 -1
Marshall 18 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.533 Marshall 13 - Alabama Birmingham 22 10
Miss State 21 - Missouri 24 0.537 Miss State 51 - Missouri 32 -22
Notre Dame 28 - Clemson 35 0.672 Notre Dame 10 - Clemson 34 17
Ohio State 35 - Northwestern 24 0.779 Ohio State 22 - Northwestern 10 -1
Oregon State 24 - Arizona State 38 0.763 Oregon State 33 - Arizona State 46 -1
Penn State 34 - Illinois 20 0.771 Penn State 56 - Illinois 21 -21
Rutgers 27 - Nebraska 31 0.57 Rutgers 21 - Nebraska 28 3
San Jose State 27 - Boise State 31 0.623 San Jose State 34 - Boise State 20 -18
Southern California 38 - Oregon 31 0.714 Southern California 24 - Oregon 31 14
Tennessee 20 - Texas AM 31 0.767 Tennessee 13 - Texas AM 34 10
UCLA 34 - Stanford 27 0.731 UCLA 47 - Stanford 48 8
Utah 34 - Washington State 24 0.754 Utah 45 - Washington State 28 -7
Wisconsin 28 - Minnesota 17 0.733 Wisconsin 20 - Minnesota 17 8


Number of FBS Games: 19
Number Correct: 12 = 63.1%
Expected Number Correct: 13.097 = 68.9%
Average Error: 10.1
Average Signed Error: 0.73

WEEK 17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 14 - West Virginia 17 0.526 Army 21 - West Virginia 24 0
Auburn 18 - Northwestern 17 0.504 Auburn 19 - Northwestern 35 17
Ball State 26 - San Jose State 27 0.525 Ball State 34 - San Jose State 13 -22
Brigham Young 38 - Central Florida 31 0.707 Brigham Young 49 - Central Florida 23 -19
Coastal Carolina 34 - Liberty 21 0.77 Coastal Carolina 34 - Liberty 37 16
Colorado 28 - Texas 38 0.775 Colorado 23 - Texas 55 22
Florida 34 - Oklahoma 42 0.703 Florida 20 - Oklahoma 55 27
Georgia 24 - Cincinnati 27 0.565 Georgia 24 - Cincinnati 21 -6
Georgia Southern 28 - Louisiana Tech 20 0.738 Georgia Southern 38 - Louisiana Tech 3 -27
Hawaii 27 - Houston 35 0.701 Hawaii 28 - Houston 14 -22
Iowa State 34 - Oregon 27 0.699 Iowa State 34 - Oregon 17 -10
Kentucky 21 - NC State 27 0.595 Kentucky 23 - NC State 21 -8
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.789 Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Texas San Antonio 24 7
Marshall 21 - Buffalo 31 0.703 Marshall 10 - Buffalo 17 -3
Memphis 24 - Florida Atlantic 17 0.657 Memphis 25 - Florida Atlantic 10 -8
Mississippi 31 - Indiana 41 0.782 Mississippi 26 - Indiana 20 -16
Nevada 24 - Tulane 28 0.614 Nevada 38 - Tulane 27 -15
North Carolina 34 - Texas AM 35 0.548 North Carolina 27 - Texas AM 41 13
North Texas 17 - Appalachian State 41 0.885 North Texas 28 - Appalachian State 56 4
Notre Dame 27 - Alabama 38 0.769 Notre Dame 14 - Alabama 31 6
Ohio State 34 - Clemson 38 0.654 Ohio State 49 - Clemson 28 -25
Oklahoma State 31 - Miami FL 28 0.537 Oklahoma State 37 - Miami FL 34 0
Tulsa 24 - Miss State 17 0.724 Tulsa 26 - Miss State 28 9
Western Kentucky 21 - Georgia State 27 0.605 Western Kentucky 21 - Georgia State 39 12
Wisconsin 28 - Wake Forest 24 0.625 Wisconsin 42 - Wake Forest 28 -10

WEEK 18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 42 - Ohio State 34 0.729 Alabama 52 - Ohio State 24 -20


Number of FBS Games: 26
Number Correct: 16 = 61.5%
Expected Number Correct: 17.429 = 67%
Average Error: 13.23