2019 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 42 - FCS Team 17 Air Force 48 - FCS Team 7
Alabama Birmingham 38 - FCS Team 14 Alabama Birmingham 24 - FCS Team 19
Appalachian State 41 - FCS Team 10 Appalachian State 42 - FCS Team 7
Arizona State 42 - Kent State 14 0.965 Arizona State 30 - Kent State 7 5
Arkansas 48 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas 20 - FCS Team 13
Arkansas State 34 - Southern Methodist 24 0.737 Arkansas State 30 - Southern Methodist 37 17
Army 34 - Rice 10 0.906 Army 14 - Rice 7 17
Auburn 38 - Oregon 28 0.698 Auburn 27 - Oregon 21 4
Ball State 20 - Indiana 41 0.93 Ball State 24 - Indiana 34 -11
Baylor 49 - FCS Team 17 Baylor 56 - FCS Team 17
Boston College 27 - Virginia Tech 24 0.563 Boston College 35 - Virginia Tech 28 -4
Bowling Green 38 - FCS Team 24 Bowling Green 46 - FCS Team 3
Brigham Young 20 - Utah 24 0.629 Brigham Young 12 - Utah 30 14
Buffalo 38 - FCS Team 20 Buffalo 38 - FCS Team 10
California 42 - FCS Team 14 California 27 - FCS Team 13
Central Florida 49 - FCS Team 14 Central Florida 62 - FCS Team 0
Central Michigan 31 - FCS Team 20 Central Michigan 38 - FCS Team 21
Charlotte 28 - FCS Team 20 Charlotte 49 - FCS Team 28
Cincinnati 27 - UCLA 28 0.526 Cincinnati 24 - UCLA 14 -11
Clemson 42 - Georgia Tech 20 0.89 Clemson 52 - Georgia Tech 14 -16
Coastal Carolina 20 - Eastern Michigan 21 0.533 Coastal Carolina 23 - Eastern Michigan 30 6
Colorado State 28 - Colorado 31 0.542 Colorado State 31 - Colorado 52 18
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 27 Connecticut 24 - FCS Team 21
Duke 17 - Alabama 42 0.883 Duke 3 - Alabama 42 14
Florida State 28 - Boise State 27 0.529 Florida State 31 - Boise State 36 6
Hawaii 28 - Arizona 41 0.746 Hawaii 45 - Arizona 38 -20
Illinois 31 - Akron 20 0.745 Illinois 42 - Akron 3 -28
Iowa 35 - Miami OH 10 0.918 Iowa 38 - Miami OH 14 1
Iowa State 45 - FCS Team 13 Iowa State 29 - FCS Team 26
Kansas 38 - FCS Team 21 Kansas 24 - FCS Team 17
Kansas State 45 - FCS Team 13 Kansas State 49 - FCS Team 14
Kentucky 35 - Toledo 24 0.74 Kentucky 38 - Toledo 24 -3
Liberty 28 - Syracuse 42 0.772 Liberty 0 - Syracuse 24 10
Louisiana Monroe 38 - FCS Team 24 Louisiana Monroe 31 - FCS Team 9
Louisiana State 38 - Georgia Southern 13 0.888 Louisiana State 55 - Georgia Southern 3 -27
Louisville 28 - Notre Dame 38 0.737 Louisville 17 - Notre Dame 35 8
Marshall 35 - FCS Team 14 Marshall 56 - FCS Team 17
Maryland 45 - FCS Team 20 Maryland 79 - FCS Team 0
Memphis 41 - Mississippi 38 0.54 Memphis 15 - Mississippi 10 -2
Miami FL 21 - Florida 28 0.629 Miami FL 20 - Florida 24 -3
Michigan 38 - Middle Tennessee 14 0.861 Michigan 40 - Middle Tennessee 21 5
Michigan State 31 - Tulsa 13 0.887 Michigan State 28 - Tulsa 7 -3
Minnesota 45 - FCS Team 13 Minnesota 28 - FCS Team 21
Miss State 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 0.938 Miss State 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 14
Navy 41 - FCS Team 17 Navy 45 - FCS Team 7
NC State 45 - East Carolina 17 0.909 NC State 34 - East Carolina 6 0
Nebraska 42 - South Alabama 17 0.911 Nebraska 35 - South Alabama 21 11
Nevada 27 - Purdue 31 0.612 Nevada 34 - Purdue 31 -7
Nevada Las Vegas 41 - FCS Team 24 Nevada Las Vegas 56 - FCS Team 23
New Mexico 35 - FCS Team 24 New Mexico 39 - FCS Team 31
North Carolina 28 - South Carolina 35 0.663 North Carolina 24 - South Carolina 20 -11
North Texas 38 - FCS Team 21 North Texas 51 - FCS Team 31
Northern Illinois 35 - FCS Team 14 Northern Illinois 24 - FCS Team 10
Ohio 42 - FCS Team 14 Ohio 41 - FCS Team 20
Ohio State 48 - Florida Atlantic 17 0.927 Ohio State 45 - Florida Atlantic 21 7
Oklahoma 56 - Houston 31 0.908 Oklahoma 49 - Houston 31 7
Old Dominion 35 - FCS Team 24 Old Dominion 24 - FCS Team 21
Oregon State 31 - Oklahoma State 49 0.843 Oregon State 36 - Oklahoma State 52 -2
Penn State 49 - FCS Team 10 Penn State 79 - FCS Team 7
Pittsburgh 31 - Virginia 24 0.693 Pittsburgh 14 - Virginia 30 23
Rutgers 31 - Massachusetts 27 0.635 Rutgers 48 - Massachusetts 21 -23
San Diego State 35 - FCS Team 13 San Diego State 6 - FCS Team 0
San Jose State 34 - FCS Team 21 San Jose State 35 - FCS Team 18
South Florida 20 - Wisconsin 34 0.789 South Florida 0 - Wisconsin 49 35
Southern California 28 - Fresno State 20 0.758 Southern California 31 - Fresno State 23 0
Southern Miss 35 - FCS Team 17 Southern Miss 38 - FCS Team 10
Stanford 28 - Northwestern 21 0.676 Stanford 17 - Northwestern 7 -3
Temple 42 - FCS Team 14 Temple 56 - FCS Team 12
Tennessee 38 - Georgia State 14 0.889 Tennessee 30 - Georgia State 38 32
Texas 31 - Louisiana Tech 17 0.805 Texas 45 - Louisiana Tech 14 -17
Texas AM 48 - Texas State 10 0.991 Texas AM 41 - Texas State 7 4
Texas Christian 45 - FCS Team 10 Texas Christian 39 - FCS Team 7
Texas El Paso 28 - FCS Team 24 Texas El Paso 36 - FCS Team 34
Texas San Antonio 27 - FCS Team 17 Texas San Antonio 35 - FCS Team 7
Texas Tech 52 - FCS Team 21 Texas Tech 45 - FCS Team 10
Troy 38 - FCS Team 14 Troy 43 - FCS Team 14
Tulane 24 - Florida International 21 0.532 Tulane 42 - Florida International 14 -25
Vanderbilt 24 - Georgia 38 0.8 Vanderbilt 6 - Georgia 30 10
Wake Forest 34 - Utah State 31 0.56 Wake Forest 38 - Utah State 35 0
Washington 45 - FCS Team 7 Washington 47 - FCS Team 14
Washington State 45 - New Mexico St 17 0.976 Washington State 58 - New Mexico St 7 -23
West Virginia 55 - FCS Team 17 West Virginia 20 - FCS Team 13
Western Kentucky 38 - FCS Team 20 Western Kentucky 28 - FCS Team 35
Western Michigan 42 - FCS Team 21 Western Michigan 48 - FCS Team 13
Wyoming 17 - Missouri 34 0.793 Wyoming 37 - Missouri 31 -23


Number of FBS Games: 45
Number Correct: 36 = 80%
Expected Number Correct: 34.402 = 76.4%
Average Error: 11.77
Average Signed Error: 0.13

WEEK 2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 10 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.769 Akron 20 - Alabama Birmingham 31 -3
Alabama 56 - New Mexico St 6 0.992 Alabama 62 - New Mexico St 10 -2
Appalachian State 31 - Charlotte 6 0.918 Appalachian State 56 - Charlotte 41 10
Arizona 48 - FCS Team 21 Arizona 65 - FCS Team 41
Arizona State 45 - FCS Team 14 Arizona State 19 - FCS Team 7
Auburn 38 - Tulane 14 0.892 Auburn 24 - Tulane 6 6
Ball State 31 - FCS Team 24 Ball State 57 - FCS Team 29
Baylor 38 - Texas San Antonio 10 0.937 Baylor 63 - Texas San Antonio 14 -21
Boise State 34 - Marshall 17 0.827 Boise State 14 - Marshall 7 10
Boston College 42 - FCS Team 10 Boston College 45 - FCS Team 13
Clemson 42 - Texas AM 24 0.849 Clemson 24 - Texas AM 10 4
Colorado 30 - Nebraska 31 0.521 Colorado 34 - Nebraska 31 -4
Colorado State 41 - FCS Team 21 Colorado State 38 - FCS Team 13
Connecticut 21 - Illinois 35 0.762 Connecticut 23 - Illinois 31 -6
Duke 42 - FCS Team 13 Duke 45 - FCS Team 13
East Carolina 34 - FCS Team 20 East Carolina 48 - FCS Team 9
Florida 45 - FCS Team 10 Florida 45 - FCS Team 0
Florida Atlantic 27 - Central Florida 38 0.76 Florida Atlantic 14 - Central Florida 48 23
Florida International 25 - Western Kentucky 24 0.506 Florida International 14 - Western Kentucky 20 7
Florida State 41 - Louisiana Monroe 20 0.849 Florida State 45 - Louisiana Monroe 44 20
Fresno State 21 - Minnesota 24 0.545 Fresno State 35 - Minnesota 38 0
Georgia 52 - FCS Team 6 Georgia 63 - FCS Team 17
Georgia Southern 35 - FCS Team 17 Georgia Southern 26 - FCS Team 18
Georgia State 35 - FCS Team 20 Georgia State 48 - FCS Team 42
Georgia Tech 41 - South Florida 21 0.868 Georgia Tech 14 - South Florida 10 16
Hawaii 35 - Oregon State 34 0.527 Hawaii 31 - Oregon State 28 -2
Houston 45 - FCS Team 17 Houston 37 - FCS Team 17
Indiana 42 - FCS Team 17 Indiana 52 - FCS Team 0
Iowa 38 - Rutgers 13 0.899 Iowa 30 - Rutgers 0 -5
Kansas 31 - Coastal Carolina 20 0.751 Kansas 7 - Coastal Carolina 12 16
Kansas State 38 - Bowling Green 17 0.93 Kansas State 52 - Bowling Green 0 -31
Kent State 24 - FCS Team 20 Kent State 26 - FCS Team 23
Kentucky 35 - Eastern Michigan 14 0.943 Kentucky 38 - Eastern Michigan 17 0
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Liberty 17 0.789 Louisiana Lafayette 35 - Liberty 14 -7
Louisiana Tech 38 - FCS Team 14 Louisiana Tech 20 - FCS Team 14
Louisville 45 - FCS Team 17 Louisville 42 - FCS Team 0
Maryland 27 - Syracuse 28 0.505 Maryland 63 - Syracuse 20 -44
Massachusetts 38 - FCS Team 27 Massachusetts 20 - FCS Team 45
Memphis 48 - FCS Team 14 Memphis 55 - FCS Team 24
Miami OH 34 - FCS Team 17 Miami OH 48 - FCS Team 17
Michigan 31 - Army 13 0.841 Michigan 24 - Army 21 15
Michigan State 34 - Western Michigan 17 0.836 Michigan State 51 - Western Michigan 17 -17
Middle Tennessee 38 - FCS Team 17 Middle Tennessee 45 - FCS Team 26
Miss State 38 - Southern Miss 13 0.932 Miss State 38 - Southern Miss 15 2
Mississippi 34 - Arkansas 27 0.644 Mississippi 31 - Arkansas 17 -7
Missouri 34 - West Virginia 35 0.503 Missouri 38 - West Virginia 7 -32
NC State 45 - FCS Team 10 NC State 41 - FCS Team 0
Nevada Las Vegas 28 - Arkansas State 34 0.633 Nevada Las Vegas 17 - Arkansas State 43 20
North Carolina 27 - Miami FL 28 0.534 North Carolina 28 - Miami FL 25 -4
Ohio State 42 - Cincinnati 17 0.917 Ohio State 42 - Cincinnati 0 -17
Oklahoma 62 - FCS Team 14 Oklahoma 70 - FCS Team 14
Oklahoma State 55 - FCS Team 17 Oklahoma State 56 - FCS Team 14
Oregon 38 - Nevada 24 0.809 Oregon 77 - Nevada 6 -57
Penn State 38 - Buffalo 14 0.89 Penn State 45 - Buffalo 13 -8
Pittsburgh 31 - Ohio 24 0.675 Pittsburgh 20 - Ohio 10 -3
Purdue 31 - Vanderbilt 27 0.63 Purdue 42 - Vanderbilt 24 -14
Rice 14 - Wake Forest 35 0.851 Rice 21 - Wake Forest 41 -1
San Jose State 24 - Tulsa 27 0.591 San Jose State 16 - Tulsa 34 15
South Alabama 31 - FCS Team 20 South Alabama 37 - FCS Team 14
South Carolina 41 - FCS Team 13 South Carolina 72 - FCS Team 10
Southern California 28 - Stanford 27 0.531 Southern California 45 - Stanford 20 -24
Southern Methodist 35 - North Texas 28 0.657 Southern Methodist 49 - North Texas 27 -15
Tennessee 27 - Brigham Young 24 0.574 Tennessee 26 - Brigham Young 29 6
Texas 27 - Louisiana State 31 0.665 Texas 38 - Louisiana State 45 3
Texas State 14 - Wyoming 28 0.797 Texas State 14 - Wyoming 23 -5
Texas Tech 45 - Texas El Paso 14 0.967 Texas Tech 38 - Texas El Paso 3 -4
UCLA 27 - San Diego State 17 0.744 UCLA 14 - San Diego State 23 19
Utah 31 - Northern Illinois 13 0.878 Utah 35 - Northern Illinois 17 0
Utah State 45 - FCS Team 14 Utah State 62 - FCS Team 7
Virginia 42 - FCS Team 10 Virginia 52 - FCS Team 17
Virginia Tech 41 - Old Dominion 20 0.882 Virginia Tech 31 - Old Dominion 17 7
Washington 28 - California 17 0.79 Washington 19 - California 20 12
Washington State 49 - FCS Team 13 Washington State 59 - FCS Team 17
Wisconsin 38 - Central Michigan 3 0.982 Wisconsin 61 - Central Michigan 0 -26


Number of FBS Games: 46
Number Correct: 37 = 80.4%
Expected Number Correct: 35.092 = 76.2%
Average Error: 12.39
Average Signed Error: -3.22

WEEK 3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 34 - Texas Tech 38 0.558 Arizona 28 - Texas Tech 14 -18
Arkansas 38 - Colorado State 27 0.748 Arkansas 55 - Colorado State 34 -10
Auburn 41 - Kent State 0 0.992 Auburn 55 - Kent State 16 2
Ball State 24 - Florida Atlantic 34 0.744 Ball State 31 - Florida Atlantic 41 0
Boise State 42 - FCS Team 10 Boise State 45 - FCS Team 10
Boston College 28 - Kansas 10 0.87 Boston College 24 - Kansas 48 42
Bowling Green 20 - Louisiana Tech 31 0.776 Bowling Green 7 - Louisiana Tech 35 17
Brigham Young 21 - Southern California 34 0.812 Brigham Young 30 - Southern California 27 -16
California 38 - North Texas 17 0.876 California 23 - North Texas 17 15
Central Florida 38 - Stanford 27 0.754 Central Florida 45 - Stanford 27 -7
Central Michigan 20 - Akron 17 0.569 Central Michigan 45 - Akron 24 -18
Charlotte 41 - Massachusetts 31 0.708 Charlotte 52 - Massachusetts 17 -25
Cincinnati 27 - Miami OH 20 0.696 Cincinnati 35 - Miami OH 13 -15
Coastal Carolina 31 - FCS Team 14 Coastal Carolina 46 - FCS Team 7
Colorado 34 - Air Force 27 0.742 Colorado 23 - Air Force 30 14
Florida International 34 - FCS Team 17 Florida International 30 - FCS Team 17
Georgia 38 - Arkansas State 14 0.971 Georgia 55 - Arkansas State 0 -31
Georgia Tech 45 - FCS Team 14 Georgia Tech 24 - FCS Team 27
Houston 31 - Washington State 45 0.759 Houston 24 - Washington State 31 -7
Illinois 28 - Eastern Michigan 20 0.713 Illinois 31 - Eastern Michigan 34 11
Indiana 21 - Ohio State 42 0.872 Indiana 10 - Ohio State 51 20
Iowa State 20 - Iowa 24 0.669 Iowa State 17 - Iowa 24 3
Kentucky 27 - Florida 24 0.526 Kentucky 21 - Florida 29 11
Liberty 20 - Buffalo 28 0.746 Liberty 35 - Buffalo 17 -26
Louisiana Lafayette 41 - FCS Team 17 Louisiana Lafayette 77 - FCS Team 6
Louisiana State 56 - FCS Team 7 Louisiana State 65 - FCS Team 14
Louisville 28 - Western Kentucky 24 0.64 Louisville 38 - Western Kentucky 21 -13
Marshall 18 - Ohio 17 0.508 Marshall 33 - Ohio 31 -1
Miami FL 42 - FCS Team 10 Miami FL 63 - FCS Team 0
Michigan State 28 - Arizona State 20 0.756 Michigan State 7 - Arizona State 10 11
Middle Tennessee 24 - Duke 27 0.53 Middle Tennessee 18 - Duke 41 20
Minnesota 38 - Georgia Southern 17 0.803 Minnesota 35 - Georgia Southern 32 18
Miss State 31 - Kansas State 21 0.744 Miss State 24 - Kansas State 31 17
Mississippi 45 - FCS Team 13 Mississippi 40 - FCS Team 29
Missouri 49 - FCS Team 10 Missouri 50 - FCS Team 0
Navy 34 - East Carolina 20 0.758 Navy 42 - East Carolina 10 -18
Nebraska 31 - Northern Illinois 21 0.773 Nebraska 44 - Northern Illinois 8 -26
Nevada 41 - FCS Team 21 Nevada 19 - FCS Team 13
New Mexico St 20 - San Diego State 31 0.797 New Mexico St 10 - San Diego State 31 10
Northwestern 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 10 0.933 Northwestern 30 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 9
Notre Dame 42 - New Mexico 13 0.972 Notre Dame 66 - New Mexico 14 -23
Oregon 56 - FCS Team 10 Oregon 35 - FCS Team 3
Oregon State 41 - FCS Team 21 Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 7
Penn State 34 - Pittsburgh 17 0.824 Penn State 17 - Pittsburgh 10 10
Purdue 26 - Texas Christian 27 0.503 Purdue 13 - Texas Christian 34 20
Rice 14 - Texas 38 0.943 Rice 13 - Texas 48 11
South Alabama 17 - Memphis 38 0.877 South Alabama 6 - Memphis 42 15
South Carolina 20 - Alabama 42 0.955 South Carolina 23 - Alabama 47 2
South Florida 35 - FCS Team 14 South Florida 55 - FCS Team 14
Southern Methodist 35 - Texas State 20 0.856 Southern Methodist 47 - Texas State 17 -15
Syracuse 17 - Clemson 42 0.916 Syracuse 6 - Clemson 41 10
Temple 34 - Maryland 38 0.595 Temple 20 - Maryland 17 -7
Tennessee 41 - FCS Team 17 Tennessee 45 - FCS Team 0
Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 7 Texas AM 62 - FCS Team 3
Texas San Antonio 7 - Army 28 0.864 Texas San Antonio 13 - Army 31 -3
Toledo 45 - FCS Team 20 Toledo 45 - FCS Team 0
Troy 27 - Southern Miss 17 0.73 Troy 42 - Southern Miss 47 15
Tulane 38 - FCS Team 13 Tulane 58 - FCS Team 6
Tulsa 28 - Oklahoma State 41 0.813 Tulsa 21 - Oklahoma State 40 6
UCLA 27 - Oklahoma 45 0.868 UCLA 14 - Oklahoma 48 16
Utah 45 - FCS Team 7 Utah 31 - FCS Team 0
Virginia 34 - Florida State 27 0.721 Virginia 31 - Florida State 24 0
Virginia Tech 42 - FCS Team 14 Virginia Tech 24 - FCS Team 17
Wake Forest 35 - North Carolina 31 0.649 Wake Forest 24 - North Carolina 18 -2
Washington 38 - Hawaii 13 0.971 Washington 52 - Hawaii 20 -7
West Virginia 28 - NC State 31 0.563 West Virginia 44 - NC State 27 -20
Western Michigan 34 - Georgia State 31 0.583 Western Michigan 57 - Georgia State 10 -44
Wyoming 41 - FCS Team 10 Wyoming 21 - FCS Team 16


Number of FBS Games: 48
Number Correct: 36 = 75%
Expected Number Correct: 36.546 = 76.1%
Average Error: 14.1
Average Signed Error: -0.57

WEEK 4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Troy 34 0.846 Akron 7 - Troy 35 11
Alabama 52 - Southern Miss 14 0.992 Alabama 49 - Southern Miss 7 -4
Alabama Birmingham 24 - South Alabama 14 0.735 Alabama Birmingham 35 - South Alabama 3 -22
Arizona State 31 - Colorado 20 0.809 Arizona State 31 - Colorado 34 14
Arkansas 38 - San Jose State 20 0.916 Arkansas 24 - San Jose State 31 25
Arkansas State 41 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas State 41 - FCS Team 28
Army 38 - FCS Team 7 Army 52 - FCS Team 21
Boise State 27 - Air Force 17 0.756 Boise State 30 - Air Force 19 -1
Brigham Young 20 - Washington 28 0.773 Brigham Young 19 - Washington 45 18
Buffalo 14 - Temple 35 0.85 Buffalo 38 - Temple 22 -37
Clemson 49 - Charlotte 7 0.992 Clemson 52 - Charlotte 10 0
Colorado State 35 - Toledo 42 0.694 Colorado State 35 - Toledo 41 -1
East Carolina 31 - FCS Team 21 East Carolina 19 - FCS Team 7
Eastern Michigan 38 - FCS Team 14 Eastern Michigan 34 - FCS Team 29
Florida 38 - Tennessee 14 0.878 Florida 34 - Tennessee 3 -7
Florida Atlantic 42 - FCS Team 17 Florida Atlantic 42 - FCS Team 7
Florida State 35 - Louisville 28 0.711 Florida State 35 - Louisville 24 -4
Fresno State 42 - FCS Team 10 Fresno State 34 - FCS Team 20
Georgia 38 - Notre Dame 24 0.804 Georgia 23 - Notre Dame 17 8
Hawaii 42 - FCS Team 21 Hawaii 35 - FCS Team 16
Illinois 24 - Nebraska 34 0.708 Illinois 38 - Nebraska 42 -6
Indiana 38 - Connecticut 17 0.917 Indiana 38 - Connecticut 3 -14
Iowa State 42 - Louisiana Monroe 21 0.887 Iowa State 72 - Louisiana Monroe 20 -31
Kansas 24 - West Virginia 31 0.655 Kansas 24 - West Virginia 29 -2
Kent State 31 - Bowling Green 21 0.756 Kent State 62 - Bowling Green 20 -32
Liberty 31 - FCS Team 17 Liberty 62 - FCS Team 27
Louisiana Tech 28 - Florida International 14 0.79 Louisiana Tech 43 - Florida International 31 2
Massachusetts 17 - Coastal Carolina 31 0.757 Massachusetts 28 - Coastal Carolina 62 20
Miami FL 38 - Central Michigan 10 0.952 Miami FL 17 - Central Michigan 12 23
Miss State 31 - Kentucky 21 0.761 Miss State 28 - Kentucky 13 -5
Mississippi 21 - California 20 0.592 Mississippi 20 - California 28 9
Missouri 38 - South Carolina 24 0.766 Missouri 34 - South Carolina 14 -6
NC State 45 - Ball State 21 0.947 NC State 34 - Ball State 23 13
New Mexico 31 - New Mexico St 28 0.643 New Mexico 55 - New Mexico St 52 0
North Carolina 28 - Appalachian State 31 0.552 North Carolina 31 - Appalachian State 34 0
North Texas 31 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.795 North Texas 45 - Texas San Antonio 3 -28
Northwestern 13 - Michigan State 17 0.668 Northwestern 10 - Michigan State 31 17
Ohio 31 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 0.619 Ohio 25 - Louisiana Lafayette 45 24
Ohio State 49 - Miami OH 10 0.991 Ohio State 76 - Miami OH 5 -32
Pittsburgh 24 - Central Florida 34 0.771 Pittsburgh 35 - Central Florida 34 -11
Rice 21 - Baylor 41 0.867 Rice 13 - Baylor 21 -12
Rutgers 24 - Boston College 27 0.531 Rutgers 16 - Boston College 30 11
San Diego State 24 - Utah State 27 0.569 San Diego State 17 - Utah State 23 3
Southern California 28 - Utah 27 0.598 Southern California 30 - Utah 23 -6
Stanford 28 - Oregon 35 0.668 Stanford 6 - Oregon 21 8
Syracuse 35 - Western Michigan 28 0.636 Syracuse 52 - Western Michigan 33 -12
Texas 42 - Oklahoma State 34 0.763 Texas 36 - Oklahoma State 30 2
Texas AM 27 - Auburn 28 0.542 Texas AM 20 - Auburn 28 7
Texas Christian 38 - Southern Methodist 21 0.815 Texas Christian 38 - Southern Methodist 41 20
Texas El Paso 20 - Nevada 31 0.732 Texas El Paso 21 - Nevada 37 5
Texas State 28 - Georgia State 20 0.668 Texas State 37 - Georgia State 34 5
Tulane 27 - Houston 28 0.524 Tulane 38 - Houston 31 -8
Tulsa 21 - Wyoming 27 0.627 Tulsa 24 - Wyoming 21 -9
Vanderbilt 20 - Louisiana State 42 0.895 Vanderbilt 38 - Louisiana State 66 6
Virginia 38 - Old Dominion 10 0.977 Virginia 28 - Old Dominion 17 17
Wake Forest 48 - FCS Team 13 Wake Forest 49 - FCS Team 7
Washington State 38 - UCLA 20 0.911 Washington State 63 - UCLA 67 22
Wisconsin 31 - Michigan 21 0.722 Wisconsin 35 - Michigan 14 -11


Number of FBS Games: 49
Number Correct: 39 = 79.5%
Expected Number Correct: 37.328 = 76.1%
Average Error: 12.06
Average Signed Error: -0.23

WEEK 5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 31 - San Jose State 17 0.854 Air Force 41 - San Jose State 24 -3
Alabama 45 - Mississippi 14 0.99 Alabama 59 - Mississippi 31 3
Appalachian State 38 - Coastal Carolina 20 0.837 Appalachian State 56 - Coastal Carolina 37 -1
Arizona 38 - UCLA 31 0.619 Arizona 20 - UCLA 17 4
Arkansas 20 - Texas AM 38 0.943 Arkansas 27 - Texas AM 31 -14
Auburn 31 - Miss State 21 0.758 Auburn 56 - Miss State 23 -23
Baylor 28 - Iowa State 35 0.682 Baylor 23 - Iowa State 21 -9
Boston College 28 - Wake Forest 34 0.612 Boston College 24 - Wake Forest 27 -3
California 24 - Arizona State 20 0.661 California 17 - Arizona State 24 11
Central Florida 52 - Connecticut 13 0.992 Central Florida 56 - Connecticut 21 4
Charlotte 30 - Florida Atlantic 31 0.573 Charlotte 27 - Florida Atlantic 45 17
Florida 45 - FCS Team 6 Florida 38 - FCS Team 0
Florida State 34 - NC State 31 0.577 Florida State 31 - NC State 13 -15
Georgia Southern 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.592 Georgia Southern 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 37 9
Iowa 38 - Middle Tennessee 10 0.962 Iowa 48 - Middle Tennessee 3 -17
Liberty 38 - New Mexico 27 0.768 Liberty 17 - New Mexico 10 4
Louisiana Monroe 35 - South Alabama 24 0.717 Louisiana Monroe 30 - South Alabama 17 -2
Marshall 19 - Cincinnati 20 0.531 Marshall 14 - Cincinnati 52 37
Maryland 24 - Penn State 31 0.609 Maryland 0 - Penn State 59 52
Massachusetts 29 - Akron 28 0.522 Massachusetts 37 - Akron 29 -7
Memphis 34 - Navy 24 0.776 Memphis 35 - Navy 23 -2
Miami OH 28 - Buffalo 31 0.541 Miami OH 34 - Buffalo 20 -17
Michigan 34 - Rutgers 10 0.947 Michigan 52 - Rutgers 0 -28
Michigan State 28 - Indiana 13 0.893 Michigan State 40 - Indiana 31 6
Nebraska 24 - Ohio State 48 0.886 Nebraska 7 - Ohio State 48 17
Nevada 33 - Hawaii 34 0.505 Nevada 3 - Hawaii 54 50
New Mexico St 20 - Fresno State 41 0.966 New Mexico St 17 - Fresno State 30 -8
North Carolina 17 - Clemson 41 0.98 North Carolina 20 - Clemson 21 -23
North Texas 30 - Houston 31 0.52 North Texas 25 - Houston 46 20
Notre Dame 31 - Virginia 17 0.832 Notre Dame 35 - Virginia 20 -1
Oklahoma 48 - Texas Tech 21 0.945 Oklahoma 55 - Texas Tech 16 -12
Oklahoma State 35 - Kansas State 34 0.559 Oklahoma State 26 - Kansas State 13 -12
Old Dominion 28 - East Carolina 17 0.76 Old Dominion 21 - East Carolina 24 14
Oregon State 27 - Stanford 35 0.769 Oregon State 28 - Stanford 31 -5
Pittsburgh 42 - FCS Team 7 Pittsburgh 17 - FCS Team 14
Purdue 31 - Minnesota 34 0.521 Purdue 31 - Minnesota 38 4
Rice 20 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.632 Rice 20 - Louisiana Tech 23 -1
South Carolina 26 - Kentucky 27 0.502 South Carolina 24 - Kentucky 7 -18
South Florida 27 - Southern Methodist 35 0.775 South Florida 21 - Southern Methodist 48 19
Southern Miss 35 - Texas El Paso 10 0.989 Southern Miss 31 - Texas El Paso 13 7
Syracuse 45 - FCS Team 14 Syracuse 41 - FCS Team 3
Temple 27 - Georgia Tech 24 0.532 Temple 24 - Georgia Tech 2 -19
Texas Christian 31 - Kansas 17 0.82 Texas Christian 51 - Kansas 14 -23
Texas State 31 - FCS Team 20 Texas State 24 - FCS Team 3
Toledo 30 - Brigham Young 31 0.537 Toledo 28 - Brigham Young 21 -8
Troy 31 - Arkansas State 27 0.628 Troy 43 - Arkansas State 50 11
Utah 38 - Washington State 34 0.574 Utah 38 - Washington State 13 -21
Utah State 45 - Colorado State 21 0.952 Utah State 34 - Colorado State 24 14
Vanderbilt 35 - Northern Illinois 21 0.809 Vanderbilt 24 - Northern Illinois 18 8
Virginia Tech 27 - Duke 28 0.53 Virginia Tech 10 - Duke 45 34
Washington 35 - Southern California 24 0.766 Washington 28 - Southern California 14 -3
Western Kentucky 14 - Alabama Birmingham 21 0.684 Western Kentucky 20 - Alabama Birmingham 13 -14
Western Michigan 35 - Central Michigan 24 0.724 Western Michigan 31 - Central Michigan 15 -5
Wisconsin 35 - Northwestern 10 0.913 Wisconsin 24 - Northwestern 15 16
Wyoming 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 0.893 Wyoming 53 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 -15


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 43 = 84.3%
Expected Number Correct: 37.459 = 73.4%
Average Error: 13.52
Average Signed Error: 0.62

WEEK 6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 17 - Rice 10 0.664 Alabama Birmingham 35 - Rice 20 -8
Army 21 - Tulane 20 0.505 Army 33 - Tulane 42 10
Buffalo 29 - Ohio 28 0.508 Buffalo 20 - Ohio 21 2
Central Michigan 17 - Eastern Michigan 21 0.679 Central Michigan 42 - Eastern Michigan 16 -30
Cincinnati 33 - Central Florida 34 0.527 Cincinnati 27 - Central Florida 24 -4
Colorado 34 - Arizona 31 0.586 Colorado 30 - Arizona 35 8
Colorado State 21 - San Diego State 28 0.709 Colorado State 10 - San Diego State 24 7
Connecticut 24 - South Florida 28 0.663 Connecticut 22 - South Florida 48 22
Duke 25 - Pittsburgh 24 0.561 Duke 30 - Pittsburgh 33 4
East Carolina 14 - Temple 28 0.78 East Carolina 17 - Temple 27 -4
Florida 24 - Auburn 31 0.751 Florida 24 - Auburn 13 -18
Florida International 41 - Massachusetts 21 0.879 Florida International 44 - Massachusetts 0 -24
Georgia State 24 - Arkansas State 38 0.76 Georgia State 52 - Arkansas State 38 -28
Georgia Tech 17 - North Carolina 27 0.721 Georgia Tech 22 - North Carolina 38 6
Iowa State 27 - Texas Christian 28 0.502 Iowa State 49 - Texas Christian 24 -26
Kansas 21 - Oklahoma 49 0.949 Kansas 20 - Oklahoma 45 -3
Kansas State 28 - Baylor 24 0.653 Kansas State 12 - Baylor 31 23
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Memphis 45 0.876 Louisiana Monroe 33 - Memphis 52 -2
Louisiana State 48 - Utah State 24 0.941 Louisiana State 42 - Utah State 6 -12
Louisville 31 - Boston College 28 0.586 Louisville 41 - Boston College 39 1
Miami FL 28 - Virginia Tech 17 0.758 Miami FL 35 - Virginia Tech 42 18
Michigan 24 - Iowa 27 0.52 Michigan 10 - Iowa 3 -10
Middle Tennessee 25 - Marshall 24 0.522 Middle Tennessee 24 - Marshall 13 -10
Minnesota 41 - Illinois 27 0.799 Minnesota 40 - Illinois 17 -9
Mississippi 38 - Vanderbilt 27 0.796 Mississippi 31 - Vanderbilt 6 -14
Missouri 45 - Troy 17 0.963 Missouri 42 - Troy 10 -4
Navy 28 - Air Force 24 0.591 Navy 34 - Air Force 25 -5
Nebraska 27 - Northwestern 24 0.574 Nebraska 13 - Northwestern 10 0
Nevada Las Vegas 14 - Boise State 38 0.952 Nevada Las Vegas 13 - Boise State 38 1
New Mexico St 17 - Liberty 24 0.642 New Mexico St 13 - Liberty 20 0
Northern Illinois 28 - Ball State 21 0.695 Northern Illinois 20 - Ball State 27 14
Notre Dame 55 - Bowling Green 3 0.992 Notre Dame 52 - Bowling Green 0 0
Ohio State 41 - Michigan State 17 0.894 Ohio State 34 - Michigan State 10 0
Old Dominion 17 - Western Kentucky 21 0.652 Old Dominion 3 - Western Kentucky 20 13
Oregon 31 - California 17 0.778 Oregon 17 - California 7 4
Penn State 45 - Purdue 14 0.868 Penn State 35 - Purdue 7 3
Rutgers 20 - Maryland 31 0.689 Rutgers 7 - Maryland 48 30
San Jose State 35 - New Mexico 27 0.76 San Jose State 32 - New Mexico 21 -3
South Alabama 14 - Georgia Southern 24 0.763 South Alabama 17 - Georgia Southern 20 -7
Southern Methodist 38 - Tulsa 27 0.783 Southern Methodist 43 - Tulsa 37 5
Stanford 21 - Washington 31 0.791 Stanford 23 - Washington 13 -20
Tennessee 6 - Georgia 38 0.967 Tennessee 14 - Georgia 43 -3
Texas El Paso 21 - Texas San Antonio 20 0.51 Texas El Paso 16 - Texas San Antonio 26 11
Texas Tech 27 - Oklahoma State 38 0.817 Texas Tech 45 - Oklahoma State 35 -21
Toledo 38 - Western Michigan 31 0.668 Toledo 31 - Western Michigan 24 0
UCLA 41 - Oregon State 31 0.758 UCLA 31 - Oregon State 48 27
West Virginia 31 - Texas 38 0.71 West Virginia 31 - Texas 42 4
Wisconsin 48 - Kent State 13 0.982 Wisconsin 48 - Kent State 0 -13


Number of FBS Games: 48
Number Correct: 31 = 64.5%
Expected Number Correct: 34.994 = 72.9%
Average Error: 10.22
Average Signed Error: -1.36

WEEK 7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Fresno State 24 0.567 Air Force 43 - Fresno State 24 -16
Akron 20 - Kent State 31 0.766 Akron 3 - Kent State 26 12
Arizona 24 - Washington 31 0.689 Arizona 27 - Washington 51 17
Arizona State 38 - Washington State 31 0.683 Arizona State 38 - Washington State 34 3
Baylor 35 - Texas Tech 24 0.752 Baylor 33 - Texas Tech 30 8
Boise State 31 - Hawaii 24 0.683 Boise State 59 - Hawaii 37 -15
Bowling Green 17 - Toledo 42 0.945 Bowling Green 20 - Toledo 7 -38
Central Michigan 28 - New Mexico St 17 0.761 Central Michigan 42 - New Mexico St 28 -3
Clemson 38 - Florida State 17 0.93 Clemson 45 - Florida State 14 -10
Coastal Carolina 35 - Georgia State 28 0.652 Coastal Carolina 21 - Georgia State 31 17
Duke 35 - Georgia Tech 17 0.847 Duke 41 - Georgia Tech 23 0
Eastern Michigan 25 - Ball State 24 0.509 Eastern Michigan 23 - Ball State 29 7
Florida Atlantic 35 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.747 Florida Atlantic 28 - Middle Tennessee 13 -4
Florida International 31 - Charlotte 21 0.736 Florida International 48 - Charlotte 23 -15
Georgia 34 - South Carolina 14 0.909 Georgia 17 - South Carolina 20 23
Houston 30 - Cincinnati 31 0.531 Houston 23 - Cincinnati 38 14
Illinois 14 - Michigan 38 0.922 Illinois 25 - Michigan 42 -7
Indiana 41 - Rutgers 14 0.961 Indiana 35 - Rutgers 0 -8
Iowa 20 - Penn State 24 0.594 Iowa 12 - Penn State 17 1
Kentucky 34 - Arkansas 24 0.71 Kentucky 24 - Arkansas 20 6
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Appalachian State 35 0.604 Louisiana Lafayette 7 - Appalachian State 17 9
Louisiana State 38 - Florida 27 0.759 Louisiana State 42 - Florida 28 -3
Louisiana Tech 42 - Massachusetts 10 0.985 Louisiana Tech 69 - Massachusetts 21 -16
Marshall 24 - Old Dominion 14 0.781 Marshall 31 - Old Dominion 17 -4
Miami FL 23 - Virginia 24 0.527 Miami FL 17 - Virginia 9 -9
Minnesota 34 - Nebraska 28 0.645 Minnesota 34 - Nebraska 7 -21
Missouri 35 - Mississippi 21 0.791 Missouri 38 - Mississippi 27 3
NC State 31 - Syracuse 28 0.554 NC State 16 - Syracuse 10 -3
Nevada 27 - San Jose State 28 0.549 Nevada 41 - San Jose State 38 -4
New Mexico 31 - Colorado State 34 0.617 New Mexico 21 - Colorado State 35 11
Notre Dame 34 - Southern California 24 0.751 Notre Dame 30 - Southern California 27 7
Ohio 27 - Northern Illinois 17 0.752 Ohio 36 - Northern Illinois 39 13
Oklahoma 45 - Texas 38 0.755 Oklahoma 34 - Texas 27 0
Oregon 41 - Colorado 21 0.897 Oregon 45 - Colorado 3 -22
Oregon State 28 - Utah 38 0.712 Oregon State 7 - Utah 52 35
Purdue 30 - Maryland 31 0.521 Purdue 40 - Maryland 14 -27
San Diego State 16 - Wyoming 17 0.516 San Diego State 26 - Wyoming 22 -5
South Florida 24 - Brigham Young 28 0.624 South Florida 27 - Brigham Young 23 -8
Southern Miss 26 - North Texas 27 0.512 Southern Miss 45 - North Texas 27 -19
Temple 21 - Memphis 31 0.717 Temple 30 - Memphis 28 -12
Tennessee 24 - Miss State 34 0.763 Tennessee 20 - Miss State 10 -20
Texas AM 24 - Alabama 41 0.897 Texas AM 28 - Alabama 47 2
Texas San Antonio 10 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.792 Texas San Antonio 14 - Alabama Birmingham 34 6
Texas State 30 - Louisiana Monroe 31 0.549 Texas State 14 - Louisiana Monroe 24 9
Tulane 45 - Connecticut 13 0.992 Tulane 49 - Connecticut 7 -10
Tulsa 26 - Navy 27 0.547 Tulsa 17 - Navy 45 27
Vanderbilt 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.877 Vanderbilt 10 - Nevada Las Vegas 34 42
Virginia Tech 42 - FCS Team 17 Virginia Tech 34 - FCS Team 17
Wake Forest 38 - Louisville 27 0.738 Wake Forest 59 - Louisville 62 14
West Virginia 31 - Iowa State 38 0.693 West Virginia 14 - Iowa State 38 17
Western Kentucky 17 - Army 20 0.579 Western Kentucky 17 - Army 8 -12
Western Michigan 34 - Miami OH 28 0.643 Western Michigan 38 - Miami OH 16 -16
Wisconsin 31 - Michigan State 17 0.772 Wisconsin 38 - Michigan State 0 -24


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 36 = 69.2%
Expected Number Correct: 37.305 = 71.7%
Average Error: 12.57
Average Signed Error: -0.93

WEEK 8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 13 - Buffalo 27 0.771 Akron 0 - Buffalo 21 7
Alabama 52 - Tennessee 14 0.991 Alabama 35 - Tennessee 13 16
Alabama Birmingham 27 - Old Dominion 10 0.876 Alabama Birmingham 38 - Old Dominion 14 -7
Appalachian State 42 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.94 Appalachian State 52 - Louisiana Monroe 7 -27
Arkansas 20 - Auburn 41 0.884 Arkansas 10 - Auburn 51 20
Arkansas State 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.569 Arkansas State 20 - Louisiana Lafayette 37 14
Ball State 25 - Toledo 24 0.51 Ball State 52 - Toledo 14 -37
Boston College 24 - NC State 27 0.544 Boston College 45 - NC State 24 -24
Bowling Green 17 - Central Michigan 27 0.684 Bowling Green 20 - Central Michigan 38 8
Brigham Young 21 - Boise State 31 0.759 Brigham Young 28 - Boise State 25 -13
California 35 - Oregon State 20 0.819 California 17 - Oregon State 21 19
Central Florida 45 - East Carolina 14 0.986 Central Florida 41 - East Carolina 28 18
Cincinnati 35 - Tulsa 17 0.894 Cincinnati 24 - Tulsa 13 7
Connecticut 21 - Houston 42 0.94 Connecticut 17 - Houston 24 -14
Eastern Michigan 21 - Western Michigan 31 0.687 Eastern Michigan 34 - Western Michigan 27 -17
Florida Atlantic 31 - Marshall 20 0.784 Florida Atlantic 31 - Marshall 36 16
Florida International 31 - Texas El Paso 6 0.983 Florida International 32 - Texas El Paso 17 10
Fresno State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.767 Fresno State 56 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 -15
Georgia 34 - Kentucky 13 0.919 Georgia 21 - Kentucky 0 0
Georgia Southern 28 - Coastal Carolina 20 0.71 Georgia Southern 30 - Coastal Carolina 27 5
Georgia State 21 - Army 28 0.652 Georgia State 28 - Army 21 -14
Hawaii 31 - Air Force 34 0.533 Hawaii 26 - Air Force 56 27
Illinois 13 - Wisconsin 45 0.968 Illinois 24 - Wisconsin 23 -33
Iowa 31 - Purdue 14 0.802 Iowa 26 - Purdue 20 11
Kansas State 27 - Texas Christian 31 0.612 Kansas State 24 - Texas Christian 17 -11
Liberty 24 - FCS Team 10 Liberty 59 - FCS Team 44
Louisiana Tech 31 - Southern Miss 24 0.73 Louisiana Tech 45 - Southern Miss 30 -8
Louisville 27 - Clemson 45 0.874 Louisville 10 - Clemson 45 17
Maryland 30 - Indiana 31 0.544 Maryland 28 - Indiana 34 5
Memphis 34 - Tulane 28 0.697 Memphis 47 - Tulane 17 -24
Miami FL 28 - Georgia Tech 17 0.782 Miami FL 21 - Georgia Tech 28 18
Miami OH 27 - Northern Illinois 24 0.628 Miami OH 27 - Northern Illinois 24 0
Miss State 27 - Louisiana State 42 0.807 Miss State 13 - Louisiana State 36 8
Mississippi 30 - Texas AM 31 0.532 Mississippi 17 - Texas AM 24 6
Navy 38 - South Florida 20 0.893 Navy 35 - South Florida 3 -14
North Texas 28 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.582 North Texas 33 - Middle Tennessee 30 1
Northwestern 13 - Ohio State 38 0.908 Northwestern 3 - Ohio State 52 24
Ohio 28 - Kent State 24 0.647 Ohio 45 - Kent State 38 -3
Oklahoma 49 - West Virginia 28 0.933 Oklahoma 52 - West Virginia 14 -17
Oklahoma State 35 - Baylor 34 0.542 Oklahoma State 27 - Baylor 45 19
Penn State 31 - Michigan 17 0.765 Penn State 28 - Michigan 21 7
Rutgers 13 - Minnesota 38 0.916 Rutgers 7 - Minnesota 42 10
San Jose State 14 - San Diego State 24 0.777 San Jose State 17 - San Diego State 27 0
South Carolina 24 - Florida 27 0.587 South Carolina 27 - Florida 38 8
Southern California 38 - Arizona 27 0.771 Southern California 41 - Arizona 14 -16
Southern Methodist 34 - Temple 27 0.706 Southern Methodist 45 - Temple 21 -17
Stanford 38 - UCLA 24 0.794 Stanford 16 - UCLA 34 32
Syracuse 21 - Pittsburgh 28 0.649 Syracuse 20 - Pittsburgh 27 0
Texas 42 - Kansas 17 0.952 Texas 50 - Kansas 48 23
Texas San Antonio 13 - Rice 21 0.719 Texas San Antonio 31 - Rice 27 -12
Texas Tech 28 - Iowa State 41 0.76 Texas Tech 24 - Iowa State 34 -3
Troy 31 - South Alabama 14 0.885 Troy 37 - South Alabama 13 -7
Utah 31 - Arizona State 21 0.75 Utah 21 - Arizona State 3 -8
Utah State 38 - Nevada 17 0.805 Utah State 36 - Nevada 10 -5
Vanderbilt 17 - Missouri 42 0.89 Vanderbilt 21 - Missouri 14 -32
Virginia 27 - Duke 28 0.556 Virginia 48 - Duke 14 -35
Virginia Tech 27 - North Carolina 34 0.661 Virginia Tech 43 - North Carolina 41 -9
Wake Forest 35 - Florida State 34 0.568 Wake Forest 22 - Florida State 20 -1
Washington 27 - Oregon 28 0.55 Washington 31 - Oregon 35 3
Washington State 42 - Colorado 34 0.75 Washington State 41 - Colorado 10 -23
Western Kentucky 28 - Charlotte 13 0.868 Western Kentucky 30 - Charlotte 14 -1
Wyoming 38 - New Mexico 13 0.959 Wyoming 23 - New Mexico 10 12


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 46 = 75.4%
Expected Number Correct: 46.321 = 75.9%
Average Error: 13.4
Average Signed Error: -1.25

WEEK 9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 28 - Utah State 21 0.737 Air Force 31 - Utah State 7 -17
Alabama 55 - Arkansas 20 0.992 Alabama 48 - Arkansas 7 -6
Arkansas State 31 - Texas State 21 0.767 Arkansas State 38 - Texas State 14 -14
Army 28 - San Jose State 14 0.784 Army 29 - San Jose State 34 19
Ball State 31 - Ohio 27 0.623 Ball State 21 - Ohio 34 17
Buffalo 24 - Central Michigan 20 0.567 Buffalo 43 - Central Michigan 20 -19
Charlotte 28 - North Texas 31 0.573 Charlotte 39 - North Texas 38 -4
Clemson 42 - Boston College 14 0.969 Clemson 59 - Boston College 7 -24
Colorado 24 - Southern California 38 0.806 Colorado 31 - Southern California 35 -10
East Carolina 23 - South Florida 24 0.529 East Carolina 20 - South Florida 45 24
Florida State 31 - Syracuse 21 0.721 Florida State 35 - Syracuse 17 -8
Fresno State 41 - Colorado State 21 0.893 Fresno State 31 - Colorado State 41 30
Georgia Southern 34 - New Mexico St 17 0.852 Georgia Southern 41 - New Mexico St 7 -17
Georgia State 31 - Troy 28 0.553 Georgia State 52 - Troy 33 -16
Houston 34 - Southern Methodist 38 0.63 Houston 31 - Southern Methodist 34 -1
Iowa State 45 - Oklahoma State 31 0.804 Iowa State 27 - Oklahoma State 34 21
Kansas 31 - Texas Tech 35 0.571 Kansas 37 - Texas Tech 34 -7
Kansas State 24 - Oklahoma 38 0.82 Kansas State 48 - Oklahoma 41 -21
Kent State 28 - Miami OH 27 0.536 Kent State 16 - Miami OH 23 8
Kentucky 21 - Missouri 27 0.655 Kentucky 29 - Missouri 7 -28
Louisiana State 38 - Auburn 31 0.717 Louisiana State 23 - Auburn 20 4
Louisville 31 - Virginia 34 0.571 Louisville 28 - Virginia 21 -10
Marshall 14 - Western Kentucky 17 0.557 Marshall 26 - Western Kentucky 23 -6
Massachusetts 27 - Connecticut 35 0.723 Massachusetts 35 - Connecticut 56 13
Michigan 29 - Notre Dame 28 0.525 Michigan 45 - Notre Dame 14 -30
Michigan State 17 - Penn State 28 0.733 Michigan State 7 - Penn State 28 10
Middle Tennessee 21 - Florida International 24 0.511 Middle Tennessee 50 - Florida International 17 -36
Minnesota 41 - Maryland 24 0.764 Minnesota 52 - Maryland 10 -25
Navy 34 - Tulane 21 0.777 Navy 41 - Tulane 38 10
Nebraska 28 - Indiana 31 0.527 Nebraska 31 - Indiana 38 4
Nevada Las Vegas 14 - San Diego State 27 0.747 Nevada Las Vegas 17 - San Diego State 20 -10
New Mexico 28 - Hawaii 38 0.728 New Mexico 31 - Hawaii 45 4
North Carolina 34 - Duke 28 0.602 North Carolina 20 - Duke 17 3
Northern Illinois 27 - Akron 6 0.925 Northern Illinois 49 - Akron 0 -28
Northwestern 13 - Iowa 24 0.762 Northwestern 0 - Iowa 20 9
Ohio State 38 - Wisconsin 24 0.76 Ohio State 38 - Wisconsin 7 -17
Old Dominion 20 - Florida Atlantic 31 0.776 Old Dominion 3 - Florida Atlantic 41 27
Oregon 42 - Washington State 27 0.788 Oregon 37 - Washington State 35 13
Pittsburgh 27 - Miami FL 17 0.724 Pittsburgh 12 - Miami FL 16 14
Purdue 35 - Illinois 27 0.696 Purdue 6 - Illinois 24 26
Rice 21 - Southern Miss 24 0.619 Rice 6 - Southern Miss 20 11
Rutgers 13 - Liberty 17 0.605 Rutgers 44 - Liberty 34 -14
South Alabama 7 - Appalachian State 35 0.98 South Alabama 3 - Appalachian State 30 -1
Stanford 34 - Arizona 24 0.698 Stanford 41 - Arizona 31 0
Temple 27 - Central Florida 34 0.66 Temple 21 - Central Florida 63 35
Tennessee 24 - South Carolina 28 0.631 Tennessee 41 - South Carolina 21 -24
Texas AM 31 - Miss State 24 0.72 Texas AM 49 - Miss State 30 -12
Texas Christian 36 - Texas 35 0.517 Texas Christian 37 - Texas 27 -9
Texas El Paso 10 - Louisiana Tech 31 0.964 Texas El Paso 21 - Louisiana Tech 42 0
Toledo 25 - Eastern Michigan 24 0.518 Toledo 37 - Eastern Michigan 34 -2
Tulsa 24 - Memphis 35 0.776 Tulsa 41 - Memphis 42 -10
UCLA 28 - Arizona State 31 0.544 UCLA 42 - Arizona State 32 -13
Utah 28 - California 10 0.851 Utah 35 - California 0 -17
Western Michigan 35 - Bowling Green 14 0.807 Western Michigan 49 - Bowling Green 10 -18
Wyoming 34 - Nevada 14 0.8 Wyoming 31 - Nevada 3 -8


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 38 = 69%
Expected Number Correct: 38.985 = 70.8%
Average Error: 14.25
Average Signed Error: -3.28

WEEK 10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 31 - Army 14 0.836 Air Force 17 - Army 13 13
Appalachian State 31 - Georgia Southern 14 0.848 Appalachian State 21 - Georgia Southern 24 20
Arizona 38 - Oregon State 34 0.598 Arizona 38 - Oregon State 56 22
Arkansas 28 - Miss State 35 0.68 Arkansas 24 - Miss State 54 23
Auburn 41 - Mississippi 20 0.947 Auburn 20 - Mississippi 14 15
Baylor 41 - West Virginia 21 0.803 Baylor 17 - West Virginia 14 17
Bowling Green 20 - Akron 10 0.694 Bowling Green 35 - Akron 6 -19
Central Florida 42 - Houston 27 0.801 Central Florida 44 - Houston 29 0
Central Michigan 21 - Northern Illinois 24 0.581 Central Michigan 48 - Northern Illinois 10 -41
Charlotte 24 - Middle Tennessee 31 0.666 Charlotte 34 - Middle Tennessee 20 -21
Clemson 55 - FCS Team 0 Clemson 59 - FCS Team 14
Coastal Carolina 31 - Troy 27 0.636 Coastal Carolina 36 - Troy 35 3
Colorado State 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 27 0.664 Colorado State 37 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 -13
Connecticut 14 - Navy 42 0.955 Connecticut 10 - Navy 56 18
East Carolina 13 - Cincinnati 35 0.922 East Carolina 43 - Cincinnati 46 -19
Eastern Michigan 22 - Buffalo 21 0.505 Eastern Michigan 14 - Buffalo 43 30
Florida 24 - Georgia 28 0.575 Florida 17 - Georgia 24 3
Florida International 27 - Old Dominion 14 0.77 Florida International 24 - Old Dominion 17 6
Florida State 24 - Miami FL 20 0.677 Florida State 10 - Miami FL 27 21
Georgia Tech 20 - Pittsburgh 24 0.669 Georgia Tech 10 - Pittsburgh 20 6
Hawaii 34 - Fresno State 35 0.505 Hawaii 38 - Fresno State 41 2
Illinois 38 - Rutgers 14 0.871 Illinois 38 - Rutgers 10 -4
Indiana 31 - Northwestern 21 0.756 Indiana 34 - Northwestern 3 -21
Kansas 27 - Kansas State 35 0.736 Kansas 10 - Kansas State 38 20
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Texas State 7 0.97 Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Texas State 3 -4
Louisiana Monroe 31 - Arkansas State 35 0.589 Louisiana Monroe 41 - Arkansas State 48 3
Maryland 20 - Michigan 41 0.798 Maryland 7 - Michigan 38 10
Massachusetts 20 - Liberty 34 0.804 Massachusetts 21 - Liberty 63 28
Memphis 42 - Southern Methodist 35 0.663 Memphis 54 - Southern Methodist 48 1
Nevada 28 - New Mexico 24 0.592 Nevada 21 - New Mexico 10 -7
North Carolina 27 - Virginia 24 0.589 North Carolina 31 - Virginia 38 10
North Texas 34 - Texas El Paso 14 0.919 North Texas 52 - Texas El Paso 26 -6
Notre Dame 45 - Virginia Tech 27 0.828 Notre Dame 21 - Virginia Tech 20 17
Oklahoma State 36 - Texas Christian 35 0.528 Oklahoma State 34 - Texas Christian 27 -6
Purdue 31 - Nebraska 28 0.556 Purdue 31 - Nebraska 27 -1
Rice 13 - Marshall 24 0.752 Rice 7 - Marshall 20 2
San Jose State 21 - Boise State 35 0.851 San Jose State 42 - Boise State 52 -4
South Carolina 35 - Vanderbilt 21 0.757 South Carolina 24 - Vanderbilt 7 -3
Southern California 28 - Oregon 31 0.604 Southern California 24 - Oregon 56 29
Syracuse 29 - Boston College 28 0.512 Syracuse 27 - Boston College 58 32
Tennessee 28 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.744 Tennessee 30 - Alabama Birmingham 7 -12
Texas AM 45 - Texas San Antonio 7 0.992 Texas AM 45 - Texas San Antonio 14 7
Tulane 34 - Tulsa 27 0.713 Tulane 38 - Tulsa 26 -5
UCLA 38 - Colorado 31 0.721 UCLA 31 - Colorado 14 -10
Utah State 24 - Brigham Young 20 0.582 Utah State 14 - Brigham Young 42 32
Wake Forest 35 - NC State 27 0.742 Wake Forest 44 - NC State 10 -26
Washington 24 - Utah 27 0.577 Washington 28 - Utah 33 2
Western Kentucky 20 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.552 Western Kentucky 24 - Florida Atlantic 35 10


Number of FBS Games: 47
Number Correct: 38 = 80.8%
Expected Number Correct: 33.63 = 71.5%
Average Error: 13.27
Average Signed Error: 3.82

WEEK 11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 42 - Louisiana State 38 0.745 Alabama 41 - Louisiana State 46 9
Arizona State 31 - Southern California 28 0.524 Arizona State 26 - Southern California 31 8
Arkansas 21 - Western Kentucky 24 0.59 Arkansas 19 - Western Kentucky 45 23
Army 45 - Massachusetts 7 0.992 Army 63 - Massachusetts 7 -18
Boise State 31 - Wyoming 20 0.801 Boise State 20 - Wyoming 17 8
Boston College 32 - Florida State 31 0.552 Boston College 31 - Florida State 38 8
Brigham Young 34 - Liberty 13 0.845 Brigham Young 31 - Liberty 24 14
California 27 - Washington State 31 0.652 California 33 - Washington State 20 -17
Cincinnati 45 - Connecticut 13 0.989 Cincinnati 48 - Connecticut 3 -13
Coastal Carolina 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 0.949 Coastal Carolina 7 - Louisiana Lafayette 48 30
Colorado 24 - Stanford 28 0.627 Colorado 16 - Stanford 13 -7
Duke 27 - Notre Dame 31 0.584 Duke 7 - Notre Dame 38 27
Florida 42 - Vanderbilt 10 0.971 Florida 56 - Vanderbilt 0 -24
Florida Atlantic 35 - Florida International 14 0.859 Florida Atlantic 37 - Florida International 7 -9
Fresno State 31 - Utah State 24 0.665 Fresno State 35 - Utah State 37 9
Georgia 34 - Missouri 10 0.835 Georgia 27 - Missouri 0 -3
Hawaii 42 - San Jose State 35 0.696 Hawaii 42 - San Jose State 40 5
Kentucky 20 - Tennessee 21 0.526 Kentucky 13 - Tennessee 17 3
Louisiana Monroe 34 - Georgia State 41 0.64 Louisiana Monroe 45 - Georgia State 31 -21
Louisiana Tech 35 - North Texas 28 0.738 Louisiana Tech 52 - North Texas 17 -28
Miami FL 31 - Louisville 27 0.641 Miami FL 52 - Louisville 27 -21
Michigan State 31 - Illinois 21 0.723 Michigan State 34 - Illinois 37 13
Minnesota 24 - Penn State 31 0.703 Minnesota 31 - Penn State 26 -12
Mississippi 38 - New Mexico St 10 0.992 Mississippi 41 - New Mexico St 3 -10
NC State 6 - Clemson 41 0.984 NC State 10 - Clemson 55 10
Northwestern 20 - Purdue 24 0.566 Northwestern 22 - Purdue 24 -2
Ohio 31 - Miami OH 24 0.72 Ohio 21 - Miami OH 24 10
Ohio State 59 - Maryland 10 0.992 Ohio State 73 - Maryland 14 -10
Oklahoma 45 - Iowa State 35 0.746 Oklahoma 42 - Iowa State 41 9
Old Dominion 21 - Texas San Antonio 14 0.705 Old Dominion 23 - Texas San Antonio 24 8
Oregon State 34 - Washington 41 0.721 Oregon State 7 - Washington 19 5
San Diego State 27 - Nevada 3 0.872 San Diego State 13 - Nevada 17 28
South Carolina 26 - Appalachian State 27 0.502 South Carolina 15 - Appalachian State 20 4
South Florida 27 - Temple 24 0.607 South Florida 7 - Temple 17 13
Southern Methodist 52 - East Carolina 27 0.932 Southern Methodist 59 - East Carolina 51 17
Southern Miss 21 - Alabama Birmingham 20 0.569 Southern Miss 37 - Alabama Birmingham 2 -34
Texas 34 - Kansas State 35 0.532 Texas 27 - Kansas State 24 -4
Texas Christian 31 - Baylor 28 0.522 Texas Christian 23 - Baylor 29 9
Texas El Paso 17 - Charlotte 31 0.851 Texas El Paso 21 - Charlotte 28 -7
Texas State 14 - South Alabama 7 0.71 Texas State 30 - South Alabama 28 5
Toledo 28 - Kent State 27 0.534 Toledo 35 - Kent State 33 -1
Troy 21 - Georgia Southern 31 0.748 Troy 49 - Georgia Southern 28 -31
Tulsa 31 - Central Florida 41 0.782 Tulsa 34 - Central Florida 31 -13
Virginia 31 - Georgia Tech 17 0.805 Virginia 33 - Georgia Tech 28 9
Virginia Tech 35 - Wake Forest 38 0.561 Virginia Tech 36 - Wake Forest 17 -22
West Virginia 30 - Texas Tech 31 0.507 West Virginia 17 - Texas Tech 38 20
Western Michigan 31 - Ball State 24 0.597 Western Michigan 35 - Ball State 31 3
Wisconsin 27 - Iowa 14 0.739 Wisconsin 24 - Iowa 22 11


Number of FBS Games: 48
Number Correct: 30 = 62.5%
Expected Number Correct: 34.643 = 72.1%
Average Error: 13.02
Average Signed Error: 0.22

WEEK 12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 7 - Eastern Michigan 28 0.845 Akron 14 - Eastern Michigan 42 7
Alabama Birmingham 27 - Texas El Paso 10 0.867 Alabama Birmingham 37 - Texas El Paso 10 -10
Arkansas State 38 - Coastal Carolina 27 0.795 Arkansas State 28 - Coastal Carolina 27 10
Army 34 - FCS Team 10 Army 47 - FCS Team 6
Auburn 22 - Georgia 21 0.516 Auburn 14 - Georgia 21 8
Ball State 28 - Central Michigan 24 0.59 Ball State 44 - Central Michigan 45 5
Baylor 34 - Oklahoma 38 0.572 Baylor 31 - Oklahoma 34 -1
Boise State 41 - New Mexico 10 0.992 Boise State 42 - New Mexico 9 -2
Brigham Young 41 - FCS Team 10 Brigham Young 42 - FCS Team 10
California 25 - Southern California 24 0.512 California 17 - Southern California 41 25
Clemson 45 - Wake Forest 17 0.978 Clemson 52 - Wake Forest 3 -21
Colorado State 17 - Air Force 34 0.871 Colorado State 21 - Air Force 38 0
Duke 35 - Syracuse 20 0.757 Duke 6 - Syracuse 49 58
Florida State 41 - FCS Team 10 Florida State 49 - FCS Team 12
Georgia Southern 35 - Louisiana Monroe 27 0.669 Georgia Southern 51 - Louisiana Monroe 29 -14
Georgia State 24 - Appalachian State 34 0.727 Georgia State 27 - Appalachian State 56 19
Georgia Tech 24 - Virginia Tech 31 0.646 Georgia Tech 0 - Virginia Tech 45 38
Houston 31 - Memphis 41 0.76 Houston 27 - Memphis 45 8
Iowa 27 - Minnesota 24 0.543 Iowa 23 - Minnesota 19 -1
Iowa State 45 - Texas 35 0.751 Iowa State 23 - Texas 21 8
Kansas State 38 - West Virginia 14 0.92 Kansas State 20 - West Virginia 24 28
Kent State 21 - Buffalo 27 0.644 Kent State 30 - Buffalo 27 -9
Marshall 24 - Louisiana Tech 27 0.547 Marshall 31 - Louisiana Tech 10 -24
Miami OH 28 - Bowling Green 7 0.864 Miami OH 44 - Bowling Green 3 -20
Michigan 34 - Michigan State 20 0.811 Michigan 44 - Michigan State 10 -20
Middle Tennessee 24 - Rice 13 0.73 Middle Tennessee 28 - Rice 31 14
Miss State 31 - Alabama 48 0.926 Miss State 7 - Alabama 38 14
Mississippi 24 - Louisiana State 42 0.967 Mississippi 37 - Louisiana State 58 3
Missouri 20 - Florida 35 0.789 Missouri 6 - Florida 23 2
NC State 27 - Louisville 35 0.733 NC State 20 - Louisville 34 6
Nebraska 17 - Wisconsin 38 0.851 Nebraska 21 - Wisconsin 37 -5
Nevada Las Vegas 28 - Hawaii 38 0.725 Nevada Las Vegas 7 - Hawaii 21 4
New Mexico St 27 - FCS Team 24 New Mexico St 41 - FCS Team 28
Northwestern 48 - Massachusetts 7 0.992 Northwestern 45 - Massachusetts 6 2
Notre Dame 29 - Navy 28 0.515 Notre Dame 52 - Navy 20 -31
Ohio 29 - Western Michigan 28 0.505 Ohio 34 - Western Michigan 37 4
Oklahoma State 45 - Kansas 27 0.844 Oklahoma State 31 - Kansas 13 0
Oregon 52 - Arizona 21 0.98 Oregon 34 - Arizona 6 3
Oregon State 32 - Arizona State 31 0.552 Oregon State 35 - Arizona State 34 0
Penn State 38 - Indiana 17 0.919 Penn State 34 - Indiana 27 14
Pittsburgh 25 - North Carolina 24 0.548 Pittsburgh 34 - North Carolina 27 -6
Rutgers 3 - Ohio State 59 0.992 Rutgers 21 - Ohio State 56 -21
San Diego State 24 - Fresno State 20 0.587 San Diego State 17 - Fresno State 7 -6
South Alabama 3 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 0.988 South Alabama 27 - Louisiana Lafayette 37 -15
South Florida 17 - Cincinnati 31 0.805 South Florida 17 - Cincinnati 20 -11
Temple 24 - Tulane 31 0.649 Temple 29 - Tulane 21 -15
Texas AM 34 - South Carolina 24 0.733 Texas AM 30 - South Carolina 6 -14
Texas San Antonio 14 - Southern Miss 31 0.837 Texas San Antonio 17 - Southern Miss 36 2
Texas State 24 - Troy 28 0.629 Texas State 27 - Troy 63 32
Texas Tech 31 - Texas Christian 35 0.578 Texas Tech 31 - Texas Christian 33 -2
Toledo 27 - Northern Illinois 24 0.573 Toledo 28 - Northern Illinois 31 6
Utah 41 - UCLA 17 0.89 Utah 49 - UCLA 3 -22
Utah State 17 - Wyoming 20 0.595 Utah State 26 - Wyoming 21 -8
Vanderbilt 14 - Kentucky 28 0.752 Vanderbilt 14 - Kentucky 38 10
Washington State 38 - Stanford 27 0.735 Washington State 49 - Stanford 22 -16


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 39 = 76.4%
Expected Number Correct: 38.096 = 74.6%
Average Error: 12.23
Average Signed Error: 0.7

WEEK 13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 62 - FCS Team 6 Alabama 66 - FCS Team 3
Alabama Birmingham 21 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.547 Alabama Birmingham 20 - Louisiana Tech 14 -9
Appalachian State 41 - Texas State 6 0.991 Appalachian State 35 - Texas State 13 13
Arizona 14 - Utah 42 0.964 Arizona 7 - Utah 35 0
Arizona State 21 - Oregon 38 0.836 Arizona State 31 - Oregon 28 -20
Arkansas State 28 - Georgia Southern 31 0.525 Arkansas State 38 - Georgia Southern 33 -8
Auburn 49 - FCS Team 3 Auburn 52 - FCS Team 0
Baylor 35 - Texas 28 0.72 Baylor 24 - Texas 10 -7
Bowling Green 14 - Ohio 31 0.853 Bowling Green 24 - Ohio 66 25
Buffalo 28 - Toledo 17 0.728 Buffalo 49 - Toledo 30 -8
Charlotte 17 - Marshall 27 0.713 Charlotte 24 - Marshall 13 -21
Cincinnati 28 - Temple 14 0.778 Cincinnati 15 - Temple 13 12
Colorado 20 - Washington 34 0.829 Colorado 20 - Washington 14 -20
Connecticut 31 - East Carolina 38 0.728 Connecticut 24 - East Carolina 31 0
Florida International 13 - Miami FL 31 0.819 Florida International 30 - Miami FL 24 -24
Fresno State 31 - Nevada 17 0.762 Fresno State 28 - Nevada 35 21
Georgia 31 - Texas AM 17 0.829 Georgia 19 - Texas AM 13 8
Georgia State 31 - South Alabama 20 0.752 Georgia State 28 - South Alabama 15 -2
Georgia Tech 24 - NC State 21 0.592 Georgia Tech 28 - NC State 26 1
Hawaii 24 - San Diego State 21 0.56 Hawaii 14 - San Diego State 11 0
Indiana 27 - Michigan 35 0.744 Indiana 14 - Michigan 39 17
Iowa 31 - Illinois 17 0.847 Iowa 19 - Illinois 10 5
Iowa State 45 - Kansas 21 0.932 Iowa State 41 - Kansas 31 14
Kent State 27 - Ball State 28 0.543 Kent State 41 - Ball State 38 -4
Kentucky 41 - FCS Team 7 Kentucky 50 - FCS Team 7
Louisiana Lafayette 38 - Troy 21 0.79 Louisiana Lafayette 53 - Troy 3 -33
Louisiana Monroe 34 - Coastal Carolina 31 0.595 Louisiana Monroe 45 - Coastal Carolina 42 0
Louisiana State 62 - Arkansas 21 0.992 Louisiana State 56 - Arkansas 20 5
Louisville 38 - Syracuse 31 0.658 Louisville 56 - Syracuse 34 -15
Maryland 31 - Nebraska 35 0.564 Maryland 7 - Nebraska 54 43
Massachusetts 10 - Brigham Young 52 0.992 Massachusetts 24 - Brigham Young 56 -10
Miami OH 34 - Akron 0 0.978 Miami OH 20 - Akron 17 31
Middle Tennessee 27 - Old Dominion 14 0.767 Middle Tennessee 38 - Old Dominion 17 -8
Miss State 48 - FCS Team 13 Miss State 45 - FCS Team 7
Missouri 20 - Tennessee 21 0.522 Missouri 20 - Tennessee 24 3
Navy 45 - Southern Methodist 38 0.705 Navy 35 - Southern Methodist 28 0
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - San Jose State 31 0.708 Nevada Las Vegas 38 - San Jose State 35 -10
New Mexico 10 - Air Force 34 0.992 New Mexico 22 - Air Force 44 -2
New Mexico St 24 - Texas El Paso 17 0.746 New Mexico St 48 - Texas El Paso 35 -6
North Carolina 45 - FCS Team 13 North Carolina 56 - FCS Team 7
Northern Illinois 27 - Eastern Michigan 21 0.585 Northern Illinois 17 - Eastern Michigan 45 34
Northwestern 13 - Minnesota 34 0.924 Northwestern 22 - Minnesota 38 -5
Notre Dame 45 - Boston College 24 0.851 Notre Dame 40 - Boston College 7 -12
Ohio State 42 - Penn State 24 0.828 Ohio State 28 - Penn State 17 7
Oklahoma 45 - Texas Christian 31 0.82 Oklahoma 28 - Texas Christian 24 10
Rice 25 - North Texas 24 0.549 Rice 20 - North Texas 14 -5
Rutgers 17 - Michigan State 34 0.793 Rutgers 0 - Michigan State 27 10
South Florida 21 - Memphis 34 0.781 South Florida 10 - Memphis 49 26
Southern California 41 - UCLA 27 0.779 Southern California 52 - UCLA 35 -3
Southern Miss 20 - Western Kentucky 17 0.563 Southern Miss 10 - Western Kentucky 28 21
Stanford 20 - California 21 0.54 Stanford 20 - California 24 3
Texas San Antonio 13 - Florida Atlantic 35 0.945 Texas San Antonio 26 - Florida Atlantic 40 -8
Texas Tech 28 - Kansas State 31 0.546 Texas Tech 27 - Kansas State 30 0
Tulane 34 - Central Florida 38 0.619 Tulane 31 - Central Florida 34 -1
Tulsa 31 - Houston 27 0.717 Tulsa 14 - Houston 24 14
Utah State 21 - Boise State 28 0.752 Utah State 21 - Boise State 56 28
Vanderbilt 35 - FCS Team 20 Vanderbilt 38 - FCS Team 0
Virginia 35 - Liberty 17 0.886 Virginia 55 - Liberty 27 -10
Virginia Tech 31 - Pittsburgh 21 0.659 Virginia Tech 28 - Pittsburgh 0 -18
Wake Forest 35 - Duke 24 0.686 Wake Forest 39 - Duke 27 -1
Washington State 45 - Oregon State 35 0.744 Washington State 54 - Oregon State 53 9
West Virginia 27 - Oklahoma State 35 0.75 West Virginia 13 - Oklahoma State 20 -1
Wisconsin 38 - Purdue 14 0.894 Wisconsin 45 - Purdue 24 3
Wyoming 31 - Colorado State 17 0.812 Wyoming 17 - Colorado State 7 4


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 46 = 79.3%
Expected Number Correct: 43.624 = 75.2%
Average Error: 11
Average Signed Error: 1.65

WEEK 14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Wyoming 13 0.81 Air Force 20 - Wyoming 6 -3
Akron 7 - Ohio 34 0.919 Akron 3 - Ohio 52 22
Arizona State 38 - Arizona 24 0.868 Arizona State 24 - Arizona 14 4
Arkansas 24 - Missouri 35 0.744 Arkansas 14 - Missouri 24 -1
Auburn 31 - Alabama 34 0.688 Auburn 48 - Alabama 45 -6
Ball State 27 - Miami OH 21 0.627 Ball State 41 - Miami OH 27 -8
Buffalo 35 - Bowling Green 7 0.906 Buffalo 49 - Bowling Green 7 -14
Central Florida 38 - South Florida 20 0.857 Central Florida 34 - South Florida 7 -9
Central Michigan 34 - Toledo 21 0.719 Central Michigan 49 - Toledo 7 -29
Coastal Carolina 31 - Texas State 20 0.781 Coastal Carolina 24 - Texas State 21 8
Colorado State 21 - Boise State 35 0.882 Colorado State 24 - Boise State 31 -7
Duke 20 - Miami FL 28 0.627 Duke 27 - Miami FL 17 -18
East Carolina 28 - Tulsa 35 0.682 East Carolina 24 - Tulsa 49 18
Eastern Michigan 28 - Kent State 24 0.59 Eastern Michigan 26 - Kent State 34 12
Florida 38 - Florida State 17 0.97 Florida 40 - Florida State 17 -2
Florida Atlantic 31 - Southern Miss 20 0.754 Florida Atlantic 34 - Southern Miss 17 -6
Georgia Southern 34 - Georgia State 27 0.65 Georgia Southern 38 - Georgia State 10 -21
Georgia Tech 6 - Georgia 35 0.975 Georgia Tech 7 - Georgia 52 16
Hawaii 25 - Army 24 0.539 Hawaii 52 - Army 31 -20
Houston 24 - Navy 34 0.764 Houston 41 - Navy 56 5
Illinois 31 - Northwestern 17 0.835 Illinois 10 - Northwestern 29 33
Kansas 21 - Baylor 38 0.819 Kansas 6 - Baylor 61 38
Kansas State 30 - Iowa State 31 0.556 Kansas State 27 - Iowa State 17 -11
Kentucky 34 - Louisville 28 0.634 Kentucky 45 - Louisville 13 -26
Liberty 34 - New Mexico St 20 0.841 Liberty 49 - New Mexico St 28 -7
Louisiana Lafayette 42 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.901 Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Louisiana Monroe 30 24
Louisiana State 45 - Texas AM 31 0.89 Louisiana State 50 - Texas AM 17 -19
Louisiana Tech 35 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.828 Louisiana Tech 41 - Texas San Antonio 27 4
Marshall 24 - Florida International 13 0.706 Marshall 30 - Florida International 27 8
Memphis 35 - Cincinnati 24 0.745 Memphis 34 - Cincinnati 24 1
Michigan 31 - Ohio State 38 0.693 Michigan 27 - Ohio State 56 22
Michigan State 41 - Maryland 20 0.798 Michigan State 19 - Maryland 16 18
Minnesota 30 - Wisconsin 31 0.549 Minnesota 17 - Wisconsin 38 20
Miss State 34 - Mississippi 31 0.61 Miss State 21 - Mississippi 20 2
NC State 21 - North Carolina 34 0.776 NC State 10 - North Carolina 41 18
Nebraska 17 - Iowa 27 0.747 Nebraska 24 - Iowa 27 -7
Nevada 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.61 Nevada 30 - Nevada Las Vegas 33 7
New Mexico 20 - Utah State 27 0.759 New Mexico 25 - Utah State 38 6
North Texas 21 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.558 North Texas 21 - Alabama Birmingham 26 2
Northern Illinois 21 - Western Michigan 31 0.68 Northern Illinois 17 - Western Michigan 14 -13
Oklahoma State 35 - Oklahoma 41 0.652 Oklahoma State 16 - Oklahoma 34 12
Old Dominion 17 - Charlotte 24 0.714 Old Dominion 22 - Charlotte 38 9
Oregon 45 - Oregon State 27 0.875 Oregon 24 - Oregon State 10 4
Penn State 45 - Rutgers 6 0.991 Penn State 27 - Rutgers 6 18
Pittsburgh 28 - Boston College 24 0.669 Pittsburgh 19 - Boston College 26 11
Purdue 31 - Indiana 34 0.616 Purdue 41 - Indiana 44 0
San Diego State 13 - Brigham Young 14 0.507 San Diego State 13 - Brigham Young 3 -11
San Jose State 35 - Fresno State 34 0.585 San Jose State 17 - Fresno State 16 0
South Alabama 20 - Arkansas State 28 0.747 South Alabama 34 - Arkansas State 30 -12
South Carolina 14 - Clemson 38 0.908 South Carolina 3 - Clemson 38 11
Southern Methodist 42 - Tulane 38 0.733 Southern Methodist 37 - Tulane 20 -13
Stanford 17 - Notre Dame 35 0.875 Stanford 24 - Notre Dame 45 3
Syracuse 31 - Wake Forest 35 0.598 Syracuse 39 - Wake Forest 30 -13
Temple 35 - Connecticut 10 0.926 Temple 49 - Connecticut 17 -7
Tennessee 38 - Vanderbilt 13 0.918 Tennessee 28 - Vanderbilt 10 7
Texas 38 - Texas Tech 31 0.742 Texas 49 - Texas Tech 24 -18
Texas Christian 35 - West Virginia 21 0.811 Texas Christian 17 - West Virginia 20 17
Texas El Paso 13 - Rice 24 0.837 Texas El Paso 16 - Rice 30 3
Troy 24 - Appalachian State 38 0.766 Troy 13 - Appalachian State 48 21
UCLA 28 - California 27 0.521 UCLA 18 - California 28 11
Utah 38 - Colorado 7 0.947 Utah 45 - Colorado 15 1
Virginia 27 - Virginia Tech 31 0.552 Virginia 39 - Virginia Tech 30 -13
Washington 38 - Washington State 31 0.642 Washington 31 - Washington State 13 -11
Western Kentucky 28 - Middle Tennessee 14 0.784 Western Kentucky 31 - Middle Tennessee 26 9


Number of FBS Games: 64
Number Correct: 50 = 78.1%
Expected Number Correct: 47.803 = 74.6%
Average Error: 11.71
Average Signed Error: 1.56

WEEK 15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 20 0.64 Appalachian State 45 - Louisiana Lafayette 38 -3
Boise State 41 - Hawaii 27 0.778 Boise State 31 - Hawaii 10 -7
Central Michigan 28 - Miami OH 17 0.698 Central Michigan 21 - Miami OH 26 16
Clemson 41 - Virginia 17 0.927 Clemson 62 - Virginia 17 -21
Florida Atlantic 28 - Alabama Birmingham 13 0.814 Florida Atlantic 49 - Alabama Birmingham 6 -28
Louisiana State 35 - Georgia 34 0.596 Louisiana State 37 - Georgia 10 -26
Memphis 35 - Cincinnati 24 0.778 Memphis 29 - Cincinnati 24 6
Ohio State 41 - Wisconsin 28 0.765 Ohio State 34 - Wisconsin 21 0
Oklahoma 35 - Baylor 34 0.526 Oklahoma 30 - Baylor 23 -6
Utah 28 - Oregon 24 0.643 Utah 15 - Oregon 37 26


Number of FBS Games: 10
Number Correct: 8 = 80%
Expected Number Correct: 7.165 = 71.6%
Average Error: 13.9
Average Signed Error: -4.3

WEEK 16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 41 - Michigan 35 0.655 Alabama 35 - Michigan 16 -13
Alabama Birmingham 10 - Appalachian State 31 0.866 Alabama Birmingham 17 - Appalachian State 31 -7
Arizona State 28 - Florida State 24 0.67 Arizona State 20 - Florida State 14 -2
Arkansas State 31 - Florida International 28 0.54 Arkansas State 34 - Florida International 26 -5
Army 20 - Navy 38 0.845 Army 7 - Navy 31 6
Auburn 35 - Minnesota 28 0.72 Auburn 24 - Minnesota 31 14
Baylor 20 - Georgia 27 0.659 Baylor 14 - Georgia 26 5
Charlotte 21 - Buffalo 28 0.638 Charlotte 9 - Buffalo 31 15
Cincinnati 31 - Boston College 24 0.73 Cincinnati 38 - Boston College 6 -25
Eastern Michigan 17 - Pittsburgh 24 0.709 Eastern Michigan 30 - Pittsburgh 34 -3
Florida Atlantic 38 - Southern Methodist 34 0.655 Florida Atlantic 52 - Southern Methodist 28 -20
Georgia Southern 31 - Liberty 21 0.736 Georgia Southern 16 - Liberty 23 17
Georgia State 17 - Wyoming 24 0.717 Georgia State 17 - Wyoming 38 14
Hawaii 28 - Brigham Young 24 0.598 Hawaii 38 - Brigham Young 34 0
Illinois 24 - California 21 0.521 Illinois 20 - California 35 18
Iowa 28 - Southern California 24 0.702 Iowa 49 - Southern California 24 -21
Iowa State 28 - Notre Dame 35 0.692 Iowa State 9 - Notre Dame 33 17
Kansas State 28 - Navy 31 0.568 Kansas State 17 - Navy 20 0
Kent State 27 - Utah State 28 0.539 Kent State 51 - Utah State 41 -11
Kentucky 23 - Virginia Tech 24 0.521 Kentucky 37 - Virginia Tech 30 -8
Louisiana State 49 - Oklahoma 38 0.795 Louisiana State 63 - Oklahoma 28 -24
Louisville 31 - Miss State 41 0.701 Louisville 38 - Miss State 28 -20
Marshall 20 - Central Florida 31 0.754 Marshall 25 - Central Florida 48 12
Miami FL 27 - Louisiana Tech 21 0.607 Miami FL 0 - Louisiana Tech 14 20
Miami OH 13 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 0.793 Miami OH 17 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 -5
Nevada 21 - Ohio 34 0.751 Nevada 21 - Ohio 30 -4
Ohio State 38 - Clemson 34 0.68 Ohio State 23 - Clemson 29 10
Penn State 31 - Memphis 27 0.655 Penn State 53 - Memphis 39 -10
San Diego State 14 - Central Michigan 13 0.539 San Diego State 48 - Central Michigan 11 -36
Temple 21 - North Carolina 27 0.609 Temple 13 - North Carolina 55 36
Tennessee 28 - Indiana 31 0.537 Tennessee 23 - Indiana 22 -4
Texas 24 - Utah 35 0.756 Texas 38 - Utah 10 -39
Texas AM 34 - Oklahoma State 28 0.679 Texas AM 24 - Oklahoma State 21 3
Tulane 28 - Southern Miss 21 0.663 Tulane 30 - Southern Miss 13 -10
Virginia 21 - Florida 38 0.851 Virginia 28 - Florida 36 -9
Wake Forest 24 - Michigan State 31 0.655 Wake Forest 21 - Michigan State 27 -1
Washington 27 - Boise State 24 0.541 Washington 38 - Boise State 7 -28
Washington State 31 - Air Force 35 0.584 Washington State 21 - Air Force 31 6
Western Michigan 17 - Western Kentucky 24 0.669 Western Michigan 20 - Western Kentucky 23 -4
Wisconsin 28 - Oregon 27 0.563 Wisconsin 27 - Oregon 28 2

WEEK 17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Louisiana State 37 - Clemson 38 0.517 Louisiana State 42 - Clemson 25 -18


Number of FBS Games: 41
Number Correct: 29 = 70.7%
Expected Number Correct: 27.18 = 66.2%
Average Error: 12.73
Average Signed Error: -3.22