2017 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 41 - FCS Team 17 Air Force 62 - FCS Team 0
Alabama Birmingham 38 - FCS Team 24 Alabama Birmingham 38 - FCS Team 7
Arizona 48 - FCS Team 21 Arizona 62 - FCS Team 24
Arizona State 49 - New Mexico St 24 0.932 Arizona State 37 - New Mexico St 31 19
Arkansas 48 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas 49 - FCS Team 7
Army 31 - FCS Team 17 Army 64 - FCS Team 6
Auburn 38 - Georgia Southern 14 0.87 Auburn 41 - Georgia Southern 7 -10
Baylor 52 - FCS Team 17 Baylor 45 - FCS Team 48
Boise State 34 - Troy 17 0.78 Boise State 24 - Troy 13 6
Brigham Young 42 - FCS Team 10 Brigham Young 20 - FCS Team 6
Central Florida 31 - Florida International 14 0.807 Central Florida 61 - Florida International 17 -27
Central Michigan 34 - FCS Team 17 Central Michigan 30 - FCS Team 27
Cincinnati 38 - FCS Team 17 Cincinnati 26 - FCS Team 14
Clemson 45 - Kent State 3 0.989 Clemson 56 - Kent State 3 -11
Coastal Carolina 27 - Massachusetts 28 0.549 Coastal Carolina 38 - Massachusetts 28 -11
Colorado 31 - Colorado State 28 0.523 Colorado 17 - Colorado State 3 -11
Colorado State 34 - Oregon State 28 0.58 Colorado State 58 - Oregon State 27 -25
Connecticut 27 - FCS Team 14 Connecticut 27 - FCS Team 20
Duke 45 - FCS Team 17 Duke 60 - FCS Team 7
East Carolina 41 - FCS Team 20 East Carolina 14 - FCS Team 34
Eastern Michigan 28 - Charlotte 20 0.767 Eastern Michigan 24 - Charlotte 7 -9
Florida 20 - Michigan 27 0.646 Florida 17 - Michigan 33 9
Florida Atlantic 21 - Navy 35 0.805 Florida Atlantic 19 - Navy 42 9
Florida State 24 - Alabama 35 0.756 Florida State 7 - Alabama 24 6
Fresno State 31 - FCS Team 20 Fresno State 66 - FCS Team 0
Georgia 28 - Appalachian State 17 0.795 Georgia 31 - Appalachian State 10 -10
Georgia State 28 - FCS Team 17 Georgia State 10 - FCS Team 17
Georgia Tech 31 - Tennessee 38 0.62 Georgia Tech 41 - Tennessee 42 -6
Hawaii 34 - FCS Team 21 Hawaii 41 - FCS Team 18
Idaho 38 - FCS Team 24 Idaho 28 - FCS Team 6
Illinois 31 - Ball State 24 0.746 Illinois 24 - Ball State 21 4
Indiana 24 - Ohio State 41 0.799 Indiana 21 - Ohio State 49 11
Iowa 35 - Wyoming 17 0.814 Iowa 24 - Wyoming 3 -3
Iowa State 42 - FCS Team 17 Iowa State 42 - FCS Team 24
Kansas 34 - FCS Team 21 Kansas 38 - FCS Team 16
Kansas State 48 - FCS Team 13 Kansas State 55 - FCS Team 19
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - FCS Team 17 Louisiana Lafayette 51 - FCS Team 48
Louisiana State 31 - Brigham Young 17 0.834 Louisiana State 27 - Brigham Young 0 -13
Louisiana Tech 48 - FCS Team 20 Louisiana Tech 52 - FCS Team 24
Marshall 27 - Miami OH 17 0.717 Marshall 31 - Miami OH 26 5
Massachusetts 28 - Hawaii 27 0.531 Massachusetts 35 - Hawaii 38 4
Memphis 41 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.859 Memphis 37 - Louisiana Monroe 29 16
Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 10 Miami FL 41 - FCS Team 13
Michigan State 35 - Bowling Green 20 0.768 Michigan State 35 - Bowling Green 10 -10
Middle Tennessee 24 - Vanderbilt 31 0.611 Middle Tennessee 6 - Vanderbilt 28 15
Minnesota 34 - Buffalo 10 0.907 Minnesota 17 - Buffalo 7 14
Miss State 49 - FCS Team 14 Miss State 49 - FCS Team 10
Mississippi 42 - South Alabama 14 0.913 Mississippi 47 - South Alabama 27 8
Missouri 42 - FCS Team 14 Missouri 72 - FCS Team 43
NC State 28 - South Carolina 27 0.528 NC State 28 - South Carolina 35 8
Nebraska 31 - Arkansas State 21 0.722 Nebraska 43 - Arkansas State 36 3
Nevada Las Vegas 38 - FCS Team 24 Nevada Las Vegas 40 - FCS Team 43
New Mexico 41 - FCS Team 20 New Mexico 38 - FCS Team 14
North Carolina 45 - California 35 0.734 North Carolina 30 - California 35 15
North Texas 31 - FCS Team 20 North Texas 59 - FCS Team 14
Northern Illinois 24 - Boston College 20 0.647 Northern Illinois 20 - Boston College 23 7
Northwestern 34 - Nevada 17 0.83 Northwestern 31 - Nevada 20 6
Notre Dame 31 - Temple 20 0.78 Notre Dame 49 - Temple 16 -22
Ohio 34 - FCS Team 14 Ohio 59 - FCS Team 0
Oklahoma 52 - Texas El Paso 10 0.983 Oklahoma 56 - Texas El Paso 7 -7
Oklahoma State 45 - Tulsa 31 0.793 Oklahoma State 59 - Tulsa 24 -21
Old Dominion 38 - FCS Team 21 Old Dominion 31 - FCS Team 17
Oregon 56 - FCS Team 20 Oregon 77 - FCS Team 21
Oregon State 42 - FCS Team 17 Oregon State 35 - FCS Team 32
Penn State 38 - Akron 13 0.936 Penn State 52 - Akron 0 -27
Pittsburgh 52 - FCS Team 17 Pittsburgh 28 - FCS Team 21
Purdue 24 - Louisville 45 0.821 Purdue 28 - Louisville 35 -14
Rice 10 - Stanford 38 0.954 Rice 7 - Stanford 62 27
Rutgers 17 - Washington 38 0.844 Rutgers 14 - Washington 30 -5
San Diego State 41 - FCS Team 10 San Diego State 38 - FCS Team 17
San Jose State 24 - South Florida 34 0.744 San Jose State 22 - South Florida 42 10
San Jose State 35 - FCS Team 17 San Jose State 34 - FCS Team 13
South Florida 45 - FCS Team 17 South Florida 31 - FCS Team 17
Southern California 38 - Western Michigan 24 0.826 Southern California 49 - Western Michigan 31 -4
Southern Methodist 41 - FCS Team 21 Southern Methodist 58 - FCS Team 14
Southern Miss 27 - Kentucky 34 0.686 Southern Miss 17 - Kentucky 24 0
Syracuse 45 - FCS Team 20 Syracuse 50 - FCS Team 7
Texas 34 - Maryland 24 0.724 Texas 41 - Maryland 51 20
Texas Christian 45 - FCS Team 13 Texas Christian 63 - FCS Team 0
Texas State 28 - FCS Team 24 Texas State 20 - FCS Team 11
Texas Tech 56 - FCS Team 24 Texas Tech 56 - FCS Team 10
Toledo 45 - FCS Team 17 Toledo 47 - FCS Team 13
Tulane 31 - FCS Team 17 Tulane 43 - FCS Team 14
UCLA 28 - Texas AM 34 0.632 UCLA 45 - Texas AM 44 -7
Utah 45 - FCS Team 13 Utah 37 - FCS Team 16
Virginia 41 - FCS Team 17 Virginia 28 - FCS Team 10
Virginia Tech 31 - West Virginia 28 0.521 Virginia Tech 31 - West Virginia 24 -4
Wake Forest 35 - FCS Team 13 Wake Forest 51 - FCS Team 7
Washington State 48 - FCS Team 14 Washington State 31 - FCS Team 0
Western Kentucky 49 - FCS Team 14 Western Kentucky 31 - FCS Team 17
Wisconsin 31 - Utah State 10 0.908 Wisconsin 59 - Utah State 10 -28


Number of FBS Games: 44
Number Correct: 37 = 84%
Expected Number Correct: 33.531 = 76.2%
Average Error: 11.52
Average Signed Error: -1.44

WEEK 2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 31 - FCS Team 17 Akron 52 - FCS Team 3
Alabama 48 - Fresno State 0 0.992 Alabama 41 - Fresno State 10 17
Appalachian State 38 - FCS Team 13 Appalachian State 54 - FCS Team 7
Arizona 32 - Houston 31 0.502 Arizona 16 - Houston 19 4
Arizona State 32 - San Diego State 31 0.545 Arizona State 20 - San Diego State 30 11
Arkansas 34 - Texas Christian 28 0.62 Arkansas 7 - Texas Christian 28 27
Army 21 - Buffalo 17 0.629 Army 21 - Buffalo 17 0
Ball State 20 - Alabama Birmingham 21 0.55 Ball State 51 - Alabama Birmingham 31 -21
Baylor 42 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.909 Baylor 10 - Texas San Antonio 17 32
Boston College 20 - Wake Forest 14 0.632 Boston College 10 - Wake Forest 34 30
Bowling Green 38 - FCS Team 17 Bowling Green 27 - FCS Team 35
Brigham Young 27 - Utah 24 0.531 Brigham Young 13 - Utah 19 9
California 52 - FCS Team 20 California 33 - FCS Team 20
Clemson 38 - Auburn 27 0.782 Clemson 14 - Auburn 6 3
Colorado 35 - Texas State 7 0.969 Colorado 37 - Texas State 3 -6
Colorado State 42 - FCS Team 14 Colorado State 38 - FCS Team 10
Duke 26 - Northwestern 27 0.525 Duke 41 - Northwestern 17 -25
Florida International 28 - FCS Team 24 Florida International 17 - FCS Team 10
Georgia Southern 38 - FCS Team 17 Georgia Southern 12 - FCS Team 22
Georgia Tech 49 - FCS Team 14 Georgia Tech 37 - FCS Team 10
Idaho 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 0.642 Idaho 16 - Nevada Las Vegas 44 32
Illinois 24 - Western Kentucky 34 0.756 Illinois 28 - Western Kentucky 7 -31
Iowa State 21 - Iowa 27 0.599 Iowa State 41 - Iowa 44 -3
Kansas 25 - Central Michigan 24 0.524 Kansas 27 - Central Michigan 45 19
Kansas State 41 - Charlotte 3 0.992 Kansas State 55 - Charlotte 7 -10
Kent State 31 - FCS Team 17 Kent State 38 - FCS Team 31
Kentucky 41 - FCS Team 14 Kentucky 27 - FCS Team 16
Louisiana State 49 - FCS Team 3 Louisiana State 45 - FCS Team 10
Louisiana Tech 34 - Miss State 38 0.617 Louisiana Tech 21 - Miss State 57 32
Maryland 45 - FCS Team 17 Maryland 63 - FCS Team 17
Massachusetts 24 - Old Dominion 31 0.662 Massachusetts 7 - Old Dominion 17 3
Miami OH 28 - FCS Team 20 Miami OH 31 - FCS Team 10
Michigan 42 - Cincinnati 10 0.969 Michigan 36 - Cincinnati 14 10
Michigan State 34 - Western Michigan 24 0.741 Michigan State 28 - Western Michigan 14 -4
Mississippi 52 - FCS Team 13 Mississippi 45 - FCS Team 23
Missouri 31 - South Carolina 28 0.51 Missouri 13 - South Carolina 31 21
Navy 34 - Tulane 13 0.881 Navy 23 - Tulane 21 19
NC State 35 - Marshall 21 0.78 NC State 37 - Marshall 10 -13
Nevada 27 - Toledo 31 0.642 Nevada 24 - Toledo 37 9
New Mexico 41 - New Mexico St 24 0.828 New Mexico 28 - New Mexico St 30 19
North Carolina 35 - Louisville 34 0.519 North Carolina 35 - Louisville 47 13
Northern Illinois 38 - FCS Team 14 Northern Illinois 38 - FCS Team 10
Notre Dame 31 - Georgia 24 0.646 Notre Dame 19 - Georgia 20 8
Ohio State 41 - Oklahoma 31 0.692 Ohio State 16 - Oklahoma 31 25
Oregon 42 - Nebraska 35 0.675 Oregon 42 - Nebraska 35 0
Oregon State 27 - Minnesota 28 0.532 Oregon State 14 - Minnesota 48 33
Penn State 38 - Pittsburgh 31 0.702 Penn State 33 - Pittsburgh 14 -12
Purdue 31 - Ohio 21 0.703 Purdue 44 - Ohio 21 -13
Rutgers 31 - Eastern Michigan 17 0.813 Rutgers 13 - Eastern Michigan 16 17
South Alabama 20 - Oklahoma State 45 0.933 South Alabama 7 - Oklahoma State 44 12
Southern California 35 - Stanford 28 0.666 Southern California 42 - Stanford 24 -11
Southern Methodist 31 - North Texas 24 0.673 Southern Methodist 54 - North Texas 32 -15
Southern Miss 35 - FCS Team 17 Southern Miss 45 - FCS Team 0
Syracuse 38 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.762 Syracuse 23 - Middle Tennessee 30 21
Temple 38 - FCS Team 14 Temple 16 - FCS Team 13
Tennessee 55 - FCS Team 14 Tennessee 42 - FCS Team 7
Texas 38 - San Jose State 21 0.826 Texas 56 - San Jose State 0 -39
Texas AM 52 - FCS Team 14 Texas AM 24 - FCS Team 14
Texas El Paso 25 - Rice 24 0.544 Texas El Paso 14 - Rice 31 18
Troy 35 - FCS Team 14 Troy 34 - FCS Team 7
Tulsa 35 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 0.769 Tulsa 66 - Louisiana Lafayette 42 -13
UCLA 45 - Hawaii 20 0.95 UCLA 56 - Hawaii 23 -8
Utah State 38 - FCS Team 17 Utah State 51 - FCS Team 13
Vanderbilt 38 - FCS Team 10 Vanderbilt 42 - FCS Team 0
Virginia 31 - Indiana 35 0.668 Virginia 17 - Indiana 34 13
Virginia Tech 48 - FCS Team 10 Virginia Tech 27 - FCS Team 14
Washington 49 - FCS Team 7 Washington 63 - FCS Team 7
Washington State 31 - Boise State 27 0.629 Washington State 47 - Boise State 44 1
West Virginia 41 - East Carolina 21 0.849 West Virginia 56 - East Carolina 20 -16
Wisconsin 45 - Florida Atlantic 7 0.992 Wisconsin 31 - Florida Atlantic 14 21
Wyoming 38 - FCS Team 17 Wyoming 27 - FCS Team 0


Number of FBS Games: 46
Number Correct: 27 = 58.6%
Expected Number Correct: 32.872 = 71.4%
Average Error: 15.63
Average Signed Error: 5.19

WEEK 3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 21 - Iowa State 41 0.814 Akron 14 - Iowa State 41 7
Alabama 45 - Colorado State 14 0.967 Alabama 41 - Colorado State 23 13
Alabama Birmingham 31 - Coastal Carolina 41 0.992 Alabama Birmingham 30 - Coastal Carolina 23 -17
Arkansas State 41 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas State 48 - FCS Team 3
Auburn 45 - FCS Team 3 Auburn 24 - FCS Team 10
Ball State 38 - FCS Team 20 Ball State 28 - FCS Team 13
Boise State 38 - New Mexico 21 0.863 Boise State 28 - New Mexico 14 3
Boston College 14 - Notre Dame 34 0.881 Boston College 20 - Notre Dame 49 9
Brigham Young 20 - Wisconsin 24 0.683 Brigham Young 6 - Wisconsin 40 30
Buffalo 27 - FCS Team 14 Buffalo 33 - FCS Team 10
California 41 - Mississippi 42 0.535 California 27 - Mississippi 16 -12
Charlotte 24 - FCS Team 21 Charlotte 31 - FCS Team 35
Colorado 38 - FCS Team 7 Colorado 41 - FCS Team 21
Duke 34 - Baylor 24 0.681 Duke 34 - Baylor 20 -4
East Carolina 24 - Virginia Tech 41 0.846 East Carolina 17 - Virginia Tech 64 30
Florida 34 - Tennessee 31 0.509 Florida 26 - Tennessee 20 -3
Florida Atlantic 31 - FCS Team 20 Florida Atlantic 45 - FCS Team 0
Georgia 45 - FCS Team 6 Georgia 42 - FCS Team 14
Houston 35 - Rice 13 0.85 Houston 38 - Rice 3 -13
Iowa 42 - North Texas 10 0.984 Iowa 31 - North Texas 14 15
Louisiana Monroe 24 - Southern Miss 27 0.579 Louisiana Monroe 17 - Southern Miss 28 8
Louisville 31 - Clemson 38 0.715 Louisville 21 - Clemson 47 19
Marshall 27 - Kent State 21 0.658 Marshall 21 - Kent State 0 -15
Memphis 31 - UCLA 38 0.672 Memphis 48 - UCLA 45 -10
Miami OH 17 - Cincinnati 27 0.709 Miami OH 17 - Cincinnati 21 -6
Michigan 42 - Air Force 20 0.897 Michigan 29 - Air Force 13 6
Minnesota 31 - Middle Tennessee 14 0.859 Minnesota 34 - Middle Tennessee 3 -14
Miss State 27 - Louisiana State 31 0.605 Miss State 37 - Louisiana State 7 -34
Missouri 31 - Purdue 28 0.578 Missouri 3 - Purdue 35 35
NC State 42 - FCS Team 13 NC State 49 - FCS Team 16
Nebraska 35 - Northern Illinois 24 0.787 Nebraska 17 - Northern Illinois 21 15
Nevada 35 - FCS Team 17 Nevada 28 - FCS Team 30
New Mexico St 24 - Troy 27 0.612 New Mexico St 24 - Troy 27 0
Northwestern 31 - Bowling Green 20 0.749 Northwestern 49 - Bowling Green 7 -31
Ohio 28 - Kansas 21 0.697 Ohio 42 - Kansas 30 -5
Ohio State 42 - Army 7 0.976 Ohio State 38 - Army 7 4
Oklahoma 45 - Tulane 6 0.991 Oklahoma 56 - Tulane 14 -3
Old Dominion 21 - North Carolina 35 0.831 Old Dominion 23 - North Carolina 53 16
Penn State 42 - Georgia State 6 0.989 Penn State 56 - Georgia State 0 -20
Pittsburgh 31 - Oklahoma State 38 0.655 Pittsburgh 21 - Oklahoma State 59 31
Rutgers 34 - FCS Team 13 Rutgers 65 - FCS Team 0
San Diego State 21 - Stanford 31 0.691 San Diego State 20 - Stanford 17 -13
South Alabama 34 - FCS Team 20 South Alabama 45 - FCS Team 0
South Carolina 31 - Kentucky 21 0.783 South Carolina 13 - Kentucky 23 20
South Florida 28 - Illinois 21 0.686 South Florida 47 - Illinois 23 -17
Southern California 45 - Texas 28 0.802 Southern California 27 - Texas 24 14
Syracuse 31 - Central Michigan 27 0.571 Syracuse 41 - Central Michigan 17 -20
Temple 34 - Massachusetts 13 0.921 Temple 29 - Massachusetts 21 13
Texas AM 48 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 0.983 Texas AM 45 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 0
Texas Christian 42 - Southern Methodist 20 0.861 Texas Christian 56 - Southern Methodist 36 2
Texas El Paso 17 - Arizona 34 0.788 Texas El Paso 16 - Arizona 63 30
Texas San Antonio 31 - FCS Team 13 Texas San Antonio 51 - FCS Team 17
Texas State 13 - Appalachian State 31 0.881 Texas State 13 - Appalachian State 20 -11
Texas Tech 48 - Arizona State 38 0.703 Texas Tech 52 - Arizona State 45 3
Toledo 41 - Tulsa 38 0.613 Toledo 54 - Tulsa 51 0
Utah 38 - San Jose State 10 0.974 Utah 54 - San Jose State 16 -10
Vanderbilt 20 - Kansas State 28 0.736 Vanderbilt 14 - Kansas State 7 -15
Virginia 28 - Connecticut 13 0.799 Virginia 38 - Connecticut 18 -5
Wake Forest 31 - Utah State 17 0.8 Wake Forest 46 - Utah State 10 -22
Washington 41 - Fresno State 13 0.917 Washington 48 - Fresno State 16 -4
Washington State 48 - Oregon State 28 0.828 Washington State 52 - Oregon State 23 -9
West Virginia 49 - FCS Team 13 West Virginia 59 - FCS Team 16
Western Kentucky 38 - Louisiana Tech 31 0.659 Western Kentucky 22 - Louisiana Tech 23 8
Western Michigan 41 - Idaho 20 0.897 Western Michigan 37 - Idaho 28 12
Wyoming 27 - Oregon 42 0.823 Wyoming 13 - Oregon 49 21


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 41 = 80.3%
Expected Number Correct: 39.88 = 78.1%
Average Error: 13.27
Average Signed Error: 1

WEEK 4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 23 - San Diego State 24 0.521 Air Force 24 - San Diego State 28 3
Appalachian State 17 - Wake Forest 24 0.689 Appalachian State 19 - Wake Forest 20 -6
Arizona 28 - Utah 31 0.544 Arizona 24 - Utah 30 3
Arizona State 38 - Oregon 45 0.736 Arizona State 37 - Oregon 35 -9
Baylor 24 - Oklahoma 41 0.822 Baylor 41 - Oklahoma 49 -9
Boise State 34 - Virginia 20 0.823 Boise State 23 - Virginia 42 33
Buffalo 21 - Florida Atlantic 17 0.585 Buffalo 34 - Florida Atlantic 31 1
California 31 - Southern California 38 0.701 California 20 - Southern California 30 3
Central Michigan 24 - Miami OH 20 0.582 Central Michigan 14 - Miami OH 31 21
Charlotte 20 - Georgia State 21 0.536 Charlotte 0 - Georgia State 28 27
Clemson 45 - Boston College 10 0.991 Clemson 34 - Boston College 7 8
Coastal Carolina 28 - FCS Team 20 Coastal Carolina 10 - FCS Team 52
Colorado 21 - Washington 28 0.688 Colorado 10 - Washington 37 20
Connecticut 24 - East Carolina 28 0.629 Connecticut 38 - East Carolina 41 -1
Eastern Michigan 24 - Ohio 21 0.534 Eastern Michigan 20 - Ohio 27 10
Florida State 31 - NC State 20 0.772 Florida State 21 - NC State 27 17
Georgia 27 - Miss State 31 0.614 Georgia 31 - Miss State 3 -32
Georgia Tech 41 - Pittsburgh 34 0.707 Georgia Tech 35 - Pittsburgh 17 -11
Houston 35 - Texas Tech 38 0.528 Houston 24 - Texas Tech 27 0
Indiana 38 - Georgia Southern 24 0.86 Indiana 52 - Georgia Southern 17 -21
Iowa 20 - Penn State 31 0.779 Iowa 19 - Penn State 21 -9
Kansas 17 - West Virginia 42 0.924 Kansas 34 - West Virginia 56 -3
Kentucky 21 - Florida 24 0.567 Kentucky 27 - Florida 28 -2
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.747 Louisiana Lafayette 50 - Louisiana Monroe 56 13
Louisiana State 34 - Syracuse 17 0.814 Louisiana State 35 - Syracuse 26 8
Louisville 45 - Kent State 7 0.988 Louisville 42 - Kent State 3 -1
Maryland 38 - Central Florida 28 0.71 Maryland 10 - Central Florida 38 38
Memphis 48 - FCS Team 17 Memphis 44 - FCS Team 31
Miami FL 38 - Toledo 27 0.8 Miami FL 52 - Toledo 30 -11
Michigan State 24 - Notre Dame 28 0.639 Michigan State 18 - Notre Dame 38 16
Middle Tennessee 31 - Bowling Green 21 0.714 Middle Tennessee 24 - Bowling Green 13 -1
Missouri 10 - Auburn 31 0.923 Missouri 14 - Auburn 51 16
Navy 31 - Cincinnati 20 0.761 Navy 42 - Cincinnati 32 1
Nebraska 31 - Rutgers 14 0.807 Nebraska 27 - Rutgers 17 7
New Mexico St 35 - Texas El Paso 21 0.784 New Mexico St 41 - Texas El Paso 14 -13
North Carolina 38 - Duke 34 0.585 North Carolina 17 - Duke 27 14
North Texas 28 - Alabama Birmingham 27 0.584 North Texas 46 - Alabama Birmingham 43 -2
Ohio State 45 - Nevada Las Vegas 17 0.904 Ohio State 54 - Nevada Las Vegas 21 -5
Oklahoma State 42 - Texas Christian 28 0.776 Oklahoma State 31 - Texas Christian 44 27
Purdue 21 - Michigan 34 0.767 Purdue 10 - Michigan 28 5
Rice 28 - Florida International 21 0.684 Rice 7 - Florida International 13 13
San Jose State 27 - Utah State 28 0.521 San Jose State 10 - Utah State 61 50
South Alabama 31 - Idaho 27 0.634 South Alabama 23 - Idaho 29 10
South Carolina 35 - Louisiana Tech 27 0.758 South Carolina 17 - Louisiana Tech 16 7
South Florida 38 - Temple 21 0.789 South Florida 43 - Temple 7 -19
Southern Methodist 39 - Arkansas State 38 0.528 Southern Methodist 44 - Arkansas State 21 -22
Stanford 38 - UCLA 28 0.732 Stanford 58 - UCLA 34 -14
Tennessee 45 - Massachusetts 13 0.992 Tennessee 17 - Massachusetts 13 28
Texas AM 34 - Arkansas 27 0.718 Texas AM 50 - Arkansas 43 0
Texas State 13 - Texas San Antonio 24 0.726 Texas State 14 - Texas San Antonio 44 19
Troy 27 - Akron 13 0.804 Troy 22 - Akron 17 9
Tulane 22 - Army 21 0.5 Tulane 21 - Army 17 -3
Tulsa 45 - New Mexico 31 0.887 Tulsa 13 - New Mexico 16 17
Vanderbilt 13 - Alabama 31 0.854 Vanderbilt 0 - Alabama 59 41
Virginia Tech 45 - Old Dominion 14 0.982 Virginia Tech 38 - Old Dominion 0 -7
Washington State 45 - Nevada 21 0.913 Washington State 45 - Nevada 7 -14
Western Kentucky 31 - Ball State 24 0.672 Western Kentucky 33 - Ball State 21 -5
Western Michigan 42 - FCS Team 17 Western Michigan 49 - FCS Team 14
Wyoming 31 - Hawaii 27 0.652 Wyoming 28 - Hawaii 21 -3


Number of FBS Games: 56
Number Correct: 43 = 76.7%
Expected Number Correct: 40.781 = 72.8%
Average Error: 12.64
Average Signed Error: 4.67

WEEK 5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 48 - Mississippi 20 0.957 Alabama 66 - Mississippi 3 -35
Arkansas 41 - New Mexico St 21 0.873 Arkansas 42 - New Mexico St 24 2
Army 31 - Texas El Paso 10 0.903 Army 35 - Texas El Paso 21 7
Auburn 31 - Miss State 27 0.588 Auburn 49 - Miss State 10 -35
Boston College 31 - Central Michigan 14 0.836 Boston College 28 - Central Michigan 8 -3
Bowling Green 21 - Akron 20 0.594 Bowling Green 23 - Akron 34 12
Central Florida 38 - Memphis 28 0.706 Central Florida 40 - Memphis 13 -17
Cincinnati 27 - Marshall 20 0.697 Cincinnati 21 - Marshall 38 24
Duke 32 - Miami FL 31 0.526 Duke 6 - Miami FL 31 26
East Carolina 27 - South Florida 45 0.822 East Carolina 31 - South Florida 61 12
Florida 27 - Vanderbilt 14 0.766 Florida 38 - Vanderbilt 24 -1
Florida Atlantic 27 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.538 Florida Atlantic 38 - Middle Tennessee 20 -15
Florida International 24 - Charlotte 10 0.857 Florida International 30 - Charlotte 29 13
Fresno State 31 - Nevada 21 0.74 Fresno State 41 - Nevada 21 -10
Georgia Tech 41 - North Carolina 35 0.634 Georgia Tech 33 - North Carolina 7 -20
Hawaii 24 - Colorado State 42 0.851 Hawaii 21 - Colorado State 51 12
Illinois 23 - Nebraska 24 0.544 Illinois 6 - Nebraska 28 21
Iowa State 38 - Texas 35 0.535 Iowa State 7 - Texas 17 13
Kansas State 29 - Baylor 28 0.526 Kansas State 33 - Baylor 20 -12
Kent State 14 - Buffalo 20 0.674 Kent State 13 - Buffalo 27 8
Kentucky 34 - Eastern Michigan 10 0.984 Kentucky 24 - Eastern Michigan 20 20
Louisiana Monroe 28 - Coastal Carolina 20 0.739 Louisiana Monroe 51 - Coastal Carolina 43 0
Louisiana State 31 - Troy 10 0.867 Louisiana State 21 - Troy 24 24
Louisiana Tech 35 - South Alabama 20 0.861 Louisiana Tech 34 - South Alabama 16 -3
Louisville 52 - FCS Team 13 Louisville 55 - FCS Team 10
Massachusetts 20 - Ohio 24 0.693 Massachusetts 50 - Ohio 58 4
Michigan State 24 - Iowa 20 0.564 Michigan State 17 - Iowa 10 -3
Minnesota 31 - Maryland 17 0.745 Minnesota 24 - Maryland 31 21
NC State 38 - Syracuse 24 0.81 NC State 33 - Syracuse 25 6
Nevada Las Vegas 42 - San Jose State 21 0.813 Nevada Las Vegas 41 - San Jose State 13 -7
New Mexico 17 - Air Force 27 0.742 New Mexico 56 - Air Force 38 -28
Notre Dame 42 - Miami OH 10 0.992 Notre Dame 52 - Miami OH 17 -3
Oregon 41 - California 34 0.687 Oregon 45 - California 24 -14
Oregon State 21 - Washington 45 0.906 Oregon State 7 - Washington 42 11
Penn State 38 - Indiana 27 0.793 Penn State 45 - Indiana 14 -20
Pittsburgh 38 - Rice 10 0.962 Pittsburgh 42 - Rice 10 -4
Rutgers 10 - Ohio State 38 0.936 Rutgers 0 - Ohio State 56 28
San Diego State 28 - Northern Illinois 17 0.789 San Diego State 34 - Northern Illinois 28 5
Southern Methodist 45 - Connecticut 24 0.876 Southern Methodist 49 - Connecticut 28 0
Southern Miss 28 - North Texas 24 0.665 Southern Miss 28 - North Texas 43 19
Stanford 42 - Arizona State 31 0.799 Stanford 34 - Arizona State 24 1
Temple 17 - Houston 21 0.652 Temple 13 - Houston 20 3
Tennessee 20 - Georgia 31 0.745 Tennessee 0 - Georgia 41 30
Texas AM 35 - South Carolina 27 0.79 Texas AM 24 - South Carolina 17 1
Texas Tech 41 - Oklahoma State 45 0.647 Texas Tech 34 - Oklahoma State 41 3
Tulsa 35 - Navy 38 0.561 Tulsa 21 - Navy 31 7
UCLA 31 - Colorado 28 0.62 UCLA 27 - Colorado 23 -1
Utah State 24 - Brigham Young 21 0.596 Utah State 40 - Brigham Young 24 -13
Virginia Tech 24 - Clemson 31 0.685 Virginia Tech 17 - Clemson 31 7
Wake Forest 21 - Florida State 24 0.553 Wake Forest 19 - Florida State 26 4
Washington State 34 - Southern California 35 0.523 Washington State 30 - Southern California 27 -4
Western Michigan 35 - Ball State 24 0.821 Western Michigan 55 - Ball State 3 -41
Wisconsin 34 - Northwestern 20 0.784 Wisconsin 33 - Northwestern 24 5
Wyoming 27 - Texas State 17 0.753 Wyoming 45 - Texas State 10 -25


Number of FBS Games: 53
Number Correct: 44 = 83%
Expected Number Correct: 39.12 = 73.8%
Average Error: 12.5
Average Signed Error: 0.66

WEEK 6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 27 - Ball State 21 0.669 Akron 31 - Ball State 3 -22
Alabama Birmingham 24 - Louisiana Tech 35 0.756 Alabama Birmingham 23 - Louisiana Tech 22 -12
Appalachian State 28 - New Mexico St 17 0.772 Appalachian State 45 - New Mexico St 31 -3
Auburn 45 - Mississippi 20 0.918 Auburn 44 - Mississippi 23 4
Boston College 17 - Virginia Tech 31 0.821 Boston College 10 - Virginia Tech 23 -1
Brigham Young 17 - Boise State 27 0.719 Brigham Young 7 - Boise State 24 7
Buffalo 17 - Western Michigan 31 0.792 Buffalo 68 - Western Michigan 71 -11
Charlotte 10 - Marshall 31 0.862 Charlotte 3 - Marshall 14 -10
Cincinnati 17 - Central Florida 34 0.803 Cincinnati 23 - Central Florida 51 11
Clemson 38 - Wake Forest 14 0.936 Clemson 28 - Wake Forest 14 10
Coastal Carolina 20 - Georgia State 21 0.618 Coastal Carolina 21 - Georgia State 27 5
Colorado 24 - Arizona 21 0.585 Colorado 42 - Arizona 45 6
Connecticut 24 - Memphis 35 0.738 Connecticut 31 - Memphis 70 28
East Carolina 29 - Temple 28 0.511 East Carolina 10 - Temple 34 25
Florida 31 - Louisiana State 20 0.74 Florida 16 - Louisiana State 17 12
Florida State 24 - Miami FL 28 0.607 Florida State 20 - Miami FL 24 0
Georgia Southern 30 - Arkansas State 31 0.527 Georgia Southern 25 - Arkansas State 43 17
Houston 31 - Southern Methodist 28 0.566 Houston 35 - Southern Methodist 22 -10
Idaho 35 - Louisiana Lafayette 31 0.662 Idaho 16 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 9
Indiana 49 - FCS Team 14 Indiana 27 - FCS Team 0
Iowa 28 - Illinois 7 0.9 Iowa 45 - Illinois 16 -8
Kansas 28 - Texas Tech 52 0.894 Kansas 19 - Texas Tech 65 22
Kentucky 31 - Missouri 20 0.803 Kentucky 40 - Missouri 34 5
Miami OH 28 - Bowling Green 17 0.771 Miami OH 29 - Bowling Green 37 19
Michigan 27 - Michigan State 17 0.746 Michigan 10 - Michigan State 14 14
Middle Tennessee 27 - Florida International 17 0.762 Middle Tennessee 37 - Florida International 17 -10
Navy 35 - Air Force 27 0.72 Navy 48 - Air Force 45 5
NC State 34 - Louisville 35 0.561 NC State 39 - Louisville 25 -15
Nebraska 21 - Wisconsin 28 0.704 Nebraska 17 - Wisconsin 38 14
Nevada 34 - Hawaii 27 0.716 Nevada 35 - Hawaii 21 -7
Nevada Las Vegas 24 - San Diego State 31 0.656 Nevada Las Vegas 10 - San Diego State 41 24
North Carolina 31 - Notre Dame 42 0.823 North Carolina 10 - Notre Dame 33 12
Northern Illinois 31 - Kent State 7 0.983 Northern Illinois 24 - Kent State 3 3
Northwestern 21 - Penn State 35 0.778 Northwestern 7 - Penn State 31 10
Ohio 34 - Central Michigan 21 0.797 Ohio 23 - Central Michigan 26 16
Ohio State 42 - Maryland 21 0.862 Ohio State 62 - Maryland 14 -27
Oklahoma 45 - Iowa State 24 0.894 Oklahoma 31 - Iowa State 38 28
Old Dominion 23 - Florida Atlantic 24 0.504 Old Dominion 28 - Florida Atlantic 58 29
Oregon 42 - Washington State 38 0.574 Oregon 10 - Washington State 33 27
Purdue 25 - Minnesota 24 0.512 Purdue 31 - Minnesota 17 -13
Rice 13 - Army 21 0.759 Rice 12 - Army 49 29
San Jose State 20 - Fresno State 35 0.792 San Jose State 10 - Fresno State 27 2
South Carolina 24 - Arkansas 27 0.551 South Carolina 48 - Arkansas 22 -29
Southern California 45 - Oregon State 20 0.969 Southern California 38 - Oregon State 10 -3
Syracuse 31 - Pittsburgh 34 0.593 Syracuse 27 - Pittsburgh 24 -6
Texas 28 - Kansas State 24 0.637 Texas 40 - Kansas State 34 -2
Texas AM 24 - Alabama 45 0.918 Texas AM 19 - Alabama 27 -13
Texas Christian 41 - West Virginia 28 0.765 Texas Christian 31 - West Virginia 24 6
Texas El Paso 17 - Western Kentucky 34 0.785 Texas El Paso 14 - Western Kentucky 15 -16
Texas San Antonio 28 - Southern Miss 14 0.799 Texas San Antonio 29 - Southern Miss 31 16
Texas State 24 - Louisiana Monroe 28 0.66 Texas State 27 - Louisiana Monroe 45 14
Toledo 41 - Eastern Michigan 20 0.985 Toledo 20 - Eastern Michigan 15 16
Tulane 24 - Tulsa 28 0.633 Tulane 62 - Tulsa 28 -38
Utah 27 - Stanford 31 0.696 Utah 20 - Stanford 23 -1
Utah State 31 - Colorado State 35 0.593 Utah State 14 - Colorado State 27 9
Vanderbilt 13 - Georgia 31 0.823 Vanderbilt 14 - Georgia 45 13
Virginia 24 - Duke 28 0.561 Virginia 28 - Duke 21 -11
Washington 42 - California 21 0.906 Washington 38 - California 7 -10


Number of FBS Games: 57
Number Correct: 41 = 71.9%
Expected Number Correct: 41.987 = 73.6%
Average Error: 13.07
Average Signed Error: 3.31

WEEK 7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 0.694 Air Force 34 - Nevada Las Vegas 30 3
Alabama 52 - Arkansas 17 0.975 Alabama 41 - Arkansas 9 3
Alabama Birmingham 23 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.529 Alabama Birmingham 25 - Middle Tennessee 23 -3
Arizona 42 - UCLA 38 0.583 Arizona 47 - UCLA 30 -13
Arizona State 27 - Washington 41 0.845 Arizona State 13 - Washington 7 -20
Arkansas State 38 - Coastal Carolina 21 0.882 Arkansas State 51 - Coastal Carolina 17 -17
Army 21 - Eastern Michigan 10 0.826 Army 28 - Eastern Michigan 27 10
Bowling Green 29 - Ohio 28 0.517 Bowling Green 30 - Ohio 48 19
Buffalo 24 - Northern Illinois 28 0.648 Buffalo 13 - Northern Illinois 14 -3
California 27 - Washington State 41 0.807 California 37 - Washington State 3 -48
Central Florida 48 - East Carolina 17 0.985 Central Florida 63 - East Carolina 21 -11
Central Michigan 24 - Toledo 34 0.795 Central Michigan 10 - Toledo 30 10
Colorado State 38 - Nevada 17 0.889 Colorado State 44 - Nevada 42 19
Duke 24 - Florida State 28 0.69 Duke 10 - Florida State 17 3
Florida 28 - Texas AM 31 0.531 Florida 17 - Texas AM 19 -1
Florida International 14 - Tulane 31 0.841 Florida International 23 - Tulane 10 -30
Fresno State 27 - New Mexico 24 0.533 Fresno State 38 - New Mexico 0 -35
Georgia 45 - Missouri 10 0.99 Georgia 53 - Missouri 28 10
Georgia Southern 32 - New Mexico St 31 0.503 Georgia Southern 27 - New Mexico St 35 9
Hawaii 31 - San Jose State 24 0.717 Hawaii 37 - San Jose State 26 -4
Idaho 14 - Appalachian State 27 0.764 Idaho 20 - Appalachian State 23 -10
Illinois 21 - Rutgers 20 0.584 Illinois 24 - Rutgers 35 12
Indiana 24 - Michigan 31 0.689 Indiana 20 - Michigan 27 0
Iowa State 52 - Kansas 17 0.967 Iowa State 45 - Kansas 0 -10
Kansas State 27 - Texas Christian 34 0.669 Kansas State 6 - Texas Christian 26 13
Kent State 17 - Miami OH 20 0.621 Kent State 17 - Miami OH 14 -6
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - Texas State 17 0.85 Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Texas State 17 10
Louisiana Monroe 25 - Georgia State 24 0.574 Louisiana Monroe 37 - Georgia State 47 11
Louisiana State 21 - Auburn 31 0.743 Louisiana State 27 - Auburn 23 -14
Louisville 35 - Boston College 24 0.799 Louisville 42 - Boston College 45 14
Marshall 31 - Old Dominion 14 0.788 Marshall 35 - Old Dominion 3 -15
Maryland 28 - Northwestern 31 0.535 Maryland 21 - Northwestern 37 13
Memphis 36 - Navy 35 0.531 Memphis 30 - Navy 27 -2
Miami FL 35 - Georgia Tech 27 0.76 Miami FL 25 - Georgia Tech 24 7
Minnesota 17 - Michigan State 21 0.667 Minnesota 27 - Michigan State 30 -1
Miss State 31 - Brigham Young 14 0.796 Miss State 35 - Brigham Young 10 -8
Mississippi 31 - Vanderbilt 28 0.529 Mississippi 57 - Vanderbilt 35 -19
Nebraska 24 - Ohio State 42 0.907 Nebraska 14 - Ohio State 56 24
North Carolina 30 - Virginia 31 0.515 North Carolina 14 - Virginia 20 5
North Texas 28 - Texas San Antonio 27 0.519 North Texas 29 - Texas San Antonio 26 -2
Oklahoma 41 - Texas 31 0.695 Oklahoma 29 - Texas 24 5
Oklahoma State 45 - Baylor 27 0.843 Oklahoma State 59 - Baylor 16 -25
Oregon State 24 - Colorado 31 0.718 Oregon State 33 - Colorado 36 -4
Pittsburgh 28 - NC State 35 0.703 Pittsburgh 17 - NC State 35 11
San Diego State 28 - Boise State 20 0.721 San Diego State 14 - Boise State 31 25
South Florida 42 - Cincinnati 24 0.883 South Florida 33 - Cincinnati 3 -12
Southern California 35 - Utah 21 0.877 Southern California 28 - Utah 27 13
Southern Miss 31 - Texas El Paso 13 0.834 Southern Miss 24 - Texas El Paso 0 -6
Stanford 38 - Oregon 31 0.698 Stanford 49 - Oregon 7 -35
Syracuse 17 - Clemson 41 0.975 Syracuse 27 - Clemson 24 -27
Temple 34 - Connecticut 14 0.854 Temple 24 - Connecticut 28 24
Tennessee 23 - South Carolina 24 0.546 Tennessee 9 - South Carolina 15 5
Troy 31 - South Alabama 10 0.936 Troy 8 - South Alabama 19 32
Tulsa 21 - Houston 34 0.763 Tulsa 45 - Houston 17 -41
Utah State 31 - Wyoming 24 0.694 Utah State 23 - Wyoming 28 12
West Virginia 42 - Texas Tech 41 0.54 West Virginia 46 - Texas Tech 35 -10
Western Kentucky 24 - Charlotte 3 0.846 Western Kentucky 45 - Charlotte 14 -10
Western Michigan 38 - Akron 24 0.823 Western Michigan 13 - Akron 14 15
Wisconsin 35 - Purdue 17 0.858 Wisconsin 17 - Purdue 9 10


Number of FBS Games: 59
Number Correct: 41 = 69.4%
Expected Number Correct: 43.394 = 73.5%
Average Error: 13.37
Average Signed Error: -1.62

WEEK 8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 42 - Tennessee 7 0.98 Alabama 45 - Tennessee 7 -3
Appalachian State 34 - Coastal Carolina 10 0.965 Appalachian State 37 - Coastal Carolina 29 16
Arkansas 27 - Auburn 38 0.772 Arkansas 20 - Auburn 52 21
Arkansas State 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 0.818 Arkansas State 47 - Louisiana Lafayette 3 -27
Army 20 - Temple 14 0.667 Army 31 - Temple 28 3
Ball State 20 - Central Michigan 21 0.548 Ball State 9 - Central Michigan 56 46
Baylor 34 - West Virginia 42 0.72 Baylor 36 - West Virginia 38 -6
Boise State 34 - Wyoming 17 0.831 Boise State 24 - Wyoming 14 7
Bowling Green 17 - Northern Illinois 28 0.793 Bowling Green 17 - Northern Illinois 48 20
California 38 - Arizona 31 0.575 California 44 - Arizona 45 8
Charlotte 14 - Alabama Birmingham 24 0.751 Charlotte 25 - Alabama Birmingham 24 -11
Cincinnati 27 - Southern Methodist 34 0.689 Cincinnati 28 - Southern Methodist 31 -4
Connecticut 31 - Tulsa 41 0.67 Connecticut 20 - Tulsa 14 -16
Duke 31 - Pittsburgh 24 0.708 Duke 17 - Pittsburgh 24 14
East Carolina 27 - Brigham Young 31 0.66 East Carolina 33 - Brigham Young 17 -20
Eastern Michigan 21 - Western Michigan 31 0.744 Eastern Michigan 17 - Western Michigan 20 -7
Florida Atlantic 34 - North Texas 31 0.605 Florida Atlantic 69 - North Texas 31 -35
Florida State 38 - Louisville 27 0.784 Florida State 28 - Louisville 31 14
Georgia State 16 - Troy 17 0.539 Georgia State 10 - Troy 31 20
Georgia Tech 31 - Wake Forest 21 0.74 Georgia Tech 38 - Wake Forest 24 -4
Houston 27 - Memphis 24 0.533 Houston 38 - Memphis 42 7
Kansas State 28 - Oklahoma 38 0.729 Kansas State 35 - Oklahoma 42 -3
Louisiana Tech 24 - Southern Miss 17 0.681 Louisiana Tech 27 - Southern Miss 34 14
Massachusetts 27 - Georgia Southern 28 0.561 Massachusetts 55 - Georgia Southern 20 -36
Miami FL 41 - Syracuse 21 0.861 Miami FL 27 - Syracuse 19 12
Miami OH 24 - Buffalo 28 0.664 Miami OH 24 - Buffalo 14 -14
Michigan State 31 - Indiana 24 0.755 Michigan State 17 - Indiana 9 -1
Middle Tennessee 17 - Marshall 20 0.554 Middle Tennessee 10 - Marshall 38 25
Minnesota 35 - Illinois 17 0.904 Minnesota 24 - Illinois 17 11
Miss State 34 - Kentucky 24 0.713 Miss State 45 - Kentucky 7 -28
Mississippi 31 - Louisiana State 35 0.571 Mississippi 24 - Louisiana State 40 12
Missouri 34 - Idaho 24 0.752 Missouri 68 - Idaho 21 -37
Navy 28 - Central Florida 35 0.702 Navy 21 - Central Florida 31 3
Nevada 33 - Air Force 34 0.53 Nevada 42 - Air Force 45 2
Nevada Las Vegas 31 - Utah State 28 0.541 Nevada Las Vegas 28 - Utah State 52 27
New Mexico 24 - Colorado State 31 0.664 New Mexico 24 - Colorado State 27 -4
Northwestern 24 - Iowa 27 0.55 Northwestern 17 - Iowa 10 -10
Notre Dame 35 - Southern California 28 0.744 Notre Dame 49 - Southern California 14 -28
Ohio 28 - Kent State 14 0.854 Ohio 48 - Kent State 3 -31
Old Dominion 17 - Western Kentucky 28 0.717 Old Dominion 31 - Western Kentucky 35 -7
Penn State 31 - Michigan 17 0.784 Penn State 42 - Michigan 13 -15
Rutgers 17 - Purdue 28 0.762 Rutgers 14 - Purdue 12 -13
San Diego State 27 - Fresno State 17 0.703 San Diego State 3 - Fresno State 27 34
South Alabama 31 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.693 South Alabama 33 - Louisiana Monroe 23 -3
Texas 34 - Oklahoma State 41 0.642 Texas 10 - Oklahoma State 13 -4
Texas Christian 52 - Kansas 10 0.992 Texas Christian 43 - Kansas 0 -1
Texas San Antonio 31 - Rice 10 0.929 Texas San Antonio 20 - Rice 7 8
Texas Tech 37 - Iowa State 38 0.509 Texas Tech 13 - Iowa State 31 17
Toledo 28 - Akron 17 0.81 Toledo 48 - Akron 21 -16
Tulane 21 - South Florida 34 0.717 Tulane 28 - South Florida 34 -7
UCLA 42 - Oregon 41 0.517 UCLA 31 - Oregon 14 -16
Utah 31 - Arizona State 27 0.654 Utah 10 - Arizona State 30 24
Virginia 31 - Boston College 21 0.743 Virginia 10 - Boston College 41 41
Virginia Tech 35 - North Carolina 20 0.899 Virginia Tech 59 - North Carolina 7 -37
Washington State 35 - Colorado 24 0.739 Washington State 28 - Colorado 0 -17
Wisconsin 41 - Maryland 17 0.911 Wisconsin 38 - Maryland 13 -1


Number of FBS Games: 56
Number Correct: 40 = 71.4%
Expected Number Correct: 40.143 = 71.6%
Average Error: 15.5
Average Signed Error: -1

WEEK 9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 21 - Buffalo 20 0.594 Akron 21 - Buffalo 20 0
Arizona 34 - Washington State 35 0.539 Arizona 58 - Washington State 37 -22
Arizona State 30 - Southern California 31 0.508 Arizona State 17 - Southern California 48 30
Ball State 14 - Toledo 42 0.922 Ball State 17 - Toledo 58 13
Baylor 27 - Texas 35 0.725 Baylor 7 - Texas 38 23
Boston College 24 - Florida State 27 0.572 Boston College 35 - Florida State 3 -35
Brigham Young 31 - San Jose State 14 0.798 Brigham Young 41 - San Jose State 20 -4
Central Florida 52 - FCS Team 7 Central Florida 73 - FCS Team 33
Clemson 38 - Georgia Tech 24 0.784 Clemson 24 - Georgia Tech 10 0
Coastal Carolina 27 - Texas State 14 0.831 Coastal Carolina 7 - Texas State 27 33
Colorado 27 - California 28 0.567 Colorado 44 - California 28 -17
Colorado State 41 - Air Force 31 0.753 Colorado State 28 - Air Force 45 27
Connecticut 31 - Missouri 38 0.635 Connecticut 12 - Missouri 52 33
Florida 17 - Georgia 34 0.839 Florida 7 - Georgia 42 18
Fresno State 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 14 0.815 Fresno State 16 - Nevada Las Vegas 26 31
Georgia State 20 - South Alabama 17 0.557 Georgia State 21 - South Alabama 13 -5
Hawaii 14 - San Diego State 31 0.824 Hawaii 7 - San Diego State 28 4
Idaho 32 - Louisiana Monroe 31 0.512 Idaho 31 - Louisiana Monroe 23 -7
Illinois 13 - Wisconsin 38 0.98 Illinois 10 - Wisconsin 24 -11
Iowa 28 - Minnesota 17 0.774 Iowa 17 - Minnesota 10 4
Iowa State 24 - Texas Christian 28 0.564 Iowa State 14 - Texas Christian 7 -11
Kansas 20 - Kansas State 42 0.917 Kansas 20 - Kansas State 30 -12
Kentucky 27 - Tennessee 24 0.55 Kentucky 29 - Tennessee 26 0
Marshall 27 - Florida International 7 0.802 Marshall 30 - Florida International 41 31
Maryland 31 - Indiana 34 0.57 Maryland 42 - Indiana 39 -6
Massachusetts 21 - Appalachian State 27 0.596 Massachusetts 30 - Appalachian State 27 -9
Memphis 38 - Tulane 24 0.726 Memphis 56 - Tulane 26 -16
Michigan 34 - Rutgers 13 0.902 Michigan 35 - Rutgers 14 0
Mississippi 41 - Arkansas 38 0.611 Mississippi 37 - Arkansas 38 4
New Mexico St 24 - Arkansas State 35 0.739 New Mexico St 21 - Arkansas State 37 5
North Carolina 21 - Miami FL 38 0.873 North Carolina 19 - Miami FL 24 -12
North Texas 34 - Old Dominion 27 0.687 North Texas 45 - Old Dominion 38 0
Northern Illinois 24 - Eastern Michigan 13 0.858 Northern Illinois 30 - Eastern Michigan 27 8
Northwestern 22 - Michigan State 21 0.502 Northwestern 39 - Michigan State 31 -7
Notre Dame 41 - NC State 27 0.801 Notre Dame 35 - NC State 14 -7
Ohio State 38 - Penn State 31 0.619 Ohio State 39 - Penn State 38 6
Oklahoma 52 - Texas Tech 35 0.809 Oklahoma 49 - Texas Tech 27 -5
Oregon 29 - Utah 28 0.526 Oregon 41 - Utah 20 -20
Oregon State 21 - Stanford 45 0.883 Oregon State 14 - Stanford 15 -23
Pittsburgh 34 - Virginia 27 0.702 Pittsburgh 31 - Virginia 14 -10
Purdue 28 - Nebraska 21 0.676 Purdue 24 - Nebraska 25 8
Rice 13 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.787 Rice 28 - Louisiana Tech 42 3
South Carolina 34 - Vanderbilt 20 0.779 South Carolina 34 - Vanderbilt 27 7
South Florida 34 - Houston 21 0.754 South Florida 24 - Houston 28 17
Southern Methodist 41 - Tulsa 31 0.666 Southern Methodist 38 - Tulsa 34 6
Southern Miss 28 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.78 Southern Miss 12 - Alabama Birmingham 30 29
Texas AM 32 - Miss State 31 0.517 Texas AM 14 - Miss State 35 22
Texas El Paso 10 - Texas San Antonio 21 0.776 Texas El Paso 14 - Texas San Antonio 31 6
Troy 31 - Georgia Southern 10 0.84 Troy 38 - Georgia Southern 16 -1
Utah State 24 - Boise State 28 0.618 Utah State 14 - Boise State 41 23
Virginia Tech 38 - Duke 17 0.874 Virginia Tech 24 - Duke 3 0
Wake Forest 35 - Louisville 34 0.534 Wake Forest 42 - Louisville 32 -9
Washington 38 - UCLA 21 0.858 Washington 44 - UCLA 23 -4
West Virginia 35 - Oklahoma State 42 0.684 West Virginia 39 - Oklahoma State 50 4
Western Kentucky 28 - Florida Atlantic 34 0.576 Western Kentucky 28 - Florida Atlantic 42 8
Wyoming 21 - New Mexico 20 0.55 Wyoming 42 - New Mexico 3 -38


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 40 = 72.7%
Expected Number Correct: 39.035 = 70.9%
Average Error: 12.61
Average Signed Error: 2.03

WEEK 10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - Army 28 0.627 Air Force 0 - Army 21 27
Alabama 38 - Louisiana State 14 0.87 Alabama 24 - Louisiana State 10 10
Alabama Birmingham 27 - Rice 14 0.765 Alabama Birmingham 52 - Rice 21 -18
Arizona State 31 - Colorado 24 0.665 Arizona State 41 - Colorado 30 -4
Arkansas 42 - Coastal Carolina 17 0.958 Arkansas 39 - Coastal Carolina 38 24
Boise State 38 - Nevada 20 0.868 Boise State 41 - Nevada 14 -9
California 38 - Oregon State 24 0.74 California 37 - Oregon State 23 0
Connecticut 21 - South Florida 38 0.834 Connecticut 20 - South Florida 37 0
Eastern Michigan 31 - Ball State 10 0.894 Eastern Michigan 56 - Ball State 14 -21
Florida Atlantic 31 - Marshall 24 0.624 Florida Atlantic 30 - Marshall 25 2
Florida International 20 - Texas San Antonio 17 0.545 Florida International 14 - Texas San Antonio 7 -4
Florida State 28 - Syracuse 24 0.587 Florida State 27 - Syracuse 24 1
Fresno State 24 - Brigham Young 10 0.76 Fresno State 20 - Brigham Young 13 7
Georgia 38 - South Carolina 14 0.918 Georgia 24 - South Carolina 10 10
Georgia Southern 20 - Georgia State 24 0.647 Georgia Southern 17 - Georgia State 21 0
Houston 38 - East Carolina 20 0.84 Houston 52 - East Carolina 27 -7
Indiana 24 - Wisconsin 34 0.82 Indiana 17 - Wisconsin 45 18
Iowa 24 - Ohio State 38 0.795 Iowa 55 - Ohio State 24 -45
Kansas 28 - Baylor 38 0.735 Kansas 9 - Baylor 38 19
Kent State 20 - Bowling Green 21 0.561 Kent State 16 - Bowling Green 44 27
Kentucky 38 - Mississippi 34 0.597 Kentucky 34 - Mississippi 37 7
Louisiana Monroe 21 - Appalachian State 31 0.735 Louisiana Monroe 52 - Appalachian State 45 -17
Louisiana Tech 35 - North Texas 28 0.712 Louisiana Tech 23 - North Texas 24 8
Miami FL 24 - Virginia Tech 28 0.595 Miami FL 28 - Virginia Tech 10 -22
Michigan 31 - Minnesota 17 0.807 Michigan 33 - Minnesota 10 -9
Michigan State 21 - Penn State 34 0.808 Michigan State 27 - Penn State 24 -16
Middle Tennessee 24 - Texas El Paso 7 0.806 Middle Tennessee 30 - Texas El Paso 3 -10
Miss State 42 - Massachusetts 13 0.918 Miss State 34 - Massachusetts 23 18
Missouri 32 - Florida 31 0.527 Missouri 45 - Florida 16 -28
NC State 24 - Clemson 34 0.749 NC State 31 - Clemson 38 -3
Nebraska 28 - Northwestern 31 0.607 Nebraska 24 - Northwestern 31 4
Nevada Las Vegas 35 - Hawaii 21 0.768 Nevada Las Vegas 31 - Hawaii 23 6
New Mexico 24 - Utah State 27 0.57 New Mexico 10 - Utah State 24 11
Notre Dame 42 - Wake Forest 20 0.901 Notre Dame 48 - Wake Forest 37 11
Ohio 34 - Miami OH 21 0.761 Ohio 45 - Miami OH 28 -4
Oklahoma State 42 - Oklahoma 41 0.575 Oklahoma State 52 - Oklahoma 62 11
Old Dominion 24 - Charlotte 14 0.718 Old Dominion 6 - Charlotte 0 4
Purdue 31 - Illinois 14 0.807 Purdue 29 - Illinois 10 -2
Rutgers 28 - Maryland 34 0.637 Rutgers 31 - Maryland 24 -13
San Jose State 10 - San Diego State 34 0.896 San Jose State 7 - San Diego State 52 21
South Alabama 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 0.735 South Alabama 14 - Louisiana Lafayette 19 15
Southern California 45 - Arizona 35 0.711 Southern California 49 - Arizona 35 -4
Southern Methodist 28 - Central Florida 41 0.784 Southern Methodist 24 - Central Florida 31 -6
Temple 20 - Navy 27 0.67 Temple 34 - Navy 26 -15
Tennessee 27 - Southern Miss 13 0.822 Tennessee 24 - Southern Miss 10 0
Texas AM 27 - Auburn 35 0.732 Texas AM 27 - Auburn 42 7
Texas Christian 27 - Texas 20 0.716 Texas Christian 24 - Texas 7 -10
Texas State 17 - New Mexico St 24 0.69 Texas State 35 - New Mexico St 45 3
Texas Tech 41 - Kansas State 35 0.626 Texas Tech 35 - Kansas State 42 13
Toledo 31 - Northern Illinois 24 0.75 Toledo 27 - Northern Illinois 17 -3
Troy 28 - Idaho 10 0.818 Troy 24 - Idaho 21 15
Tulane 27 - Cincinnati 21 0.637 Tulane 16 - Cincinnati 17 7
Tulsa 34 - Memphis 42 0.682 Tulsa 14 - Memphis 41 19
Utah 30 - UCLA 31 0.512 Utah 48 - UCLA 17 -32
Vanderbilt 31 - Western Kentucky 24 0.676 Vanderbilt 31 - Western Kentucky 17 -7
Virginia 24 - Georgia Tech 35 0.775 Virginia 40 - Georgia Tech 36 -15
Washington 38 - Oregon 20 0.792 Washington 38 - Oregon 3 -17
Washington State 29 - Stanford 28 0.503 Washington State 24 - Stanford 21 -2
West Virginia 31 - Iowa State 35 0.602 West Virginia 20 - Iowa State 16 -8
Western Michigan 31 - Central Michigan 24 0.732 Western Michigan 28 - Central Michigan 35 14
Wyoming 27 - Colorado State 24 0.552 Wyoming 16 - Colorado State 13 0


Number of FBS Games: 61
Number Correct: 44 = 72.1%
Expected Number Correct: 44.064 = 72.2%
Average Error: 11.31
Average Signed Error: -0.2

WEEK 11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 24 - Wyoming 27 0.569 Air Force 14 - Wyoming 28 11
Appalachian State 34 - Georgia Southern 17 0.877 Appalachian State 27 - Georgia Southern 6 -4
Arizona 49 - Oregon State 28 0.907 Arizona 49 - Oregon State 28 0
Army 20 - Duke 17 0.558 Army 21 - Duke 16 -2
Auburn 28 - Georgia 31 0.56 Auburn 40 - Georgia 17 -26
Boston College 31 - NC State 28 0.536 Boston College 14 - NC State 17 6
Buffalo 34 - Bowling Green 24 0.774 Buffalo 38 - Bowling Green 28 0
Central Florida 49 - Connecticut 14 0.992 Central Florida 49 - Connecticut 24 10
Central Michigan 21 - Eastern Michigan 20 0.55 Central Michigan 42 - Eastern Michigan 30 -11
Charlotte 3 - Middle Tennessee 14 0.731 Charlotte 21 - Middle Tennessee 35 3
Cincinnati 20 - Temple 21 0.528 Cincinnati 24 - Temple 35 10
Clemson 35 - Florida State 14 0.939 Clemson 31 - Florida State 14 4
Coastal Carolina 13 - Troy 24 0.766 Coastal Carolina 17 - Troy 42 14
Colorado 24 - Southern California 38 0.777 Colorado 24 - Southern California 38 0
Colorado State 20 - Boise State 28 0.726 Colorado State 59 - Boise State 52 -15
East Carolina 31 - Tulane 35 0.666 East Carolina 24 - Tulane 31 3
Florida International 24 - Old Dominion 10 0.795 Florida International 30 - Old Dominion 37 21
Georgia Tech 27 - Virginia Tech 31 0.589 Georgia Tech 28 - Virginia Tech 22 -10
Hawaii 10 - Fresno State 27 0.804 Hawaii 21 - Fresno State 31 -7
Illinois 24 - Indiana 31 0.727 Illinois 14 - Indiana 24 3
Iowa State 34 - Oklahoma State 31 0.563 Iowa State 42 - Oklahoma State 49 10
Kansas State 35 - West Virginia 38 0.586 Kansas State 23 - West Virginia 28 2
Louisiana State 38 - Arkansas 21 0.869 Louisiana State 33 - Arkansas 10 -6
Louisiana Tech 24 - Florida Atlantic 34 0.768 Louisiana Tech 23 - Florida Atlantic 48 15
Louisville 42 - Virginia 35 0.72 Louisville 38 - Virginia 21 -10
Marshall 28 - Western Kentucky 13 0.844 Marshall 30 - Western Kentucky 23 8
Maryland 27 - Michigan 38 0.798 Maryland 10 - Michigan 35 14
Massachusetts 38 - FCS Team 20 Massachusetts 44 - FCS Team 31
Miami FL 28 - Notre Dame 35 0.706 Miami FL 41 - Notre Dame 8 -40
Miami OH 20 - Akron 17 0.539 Miami OH 24 - Akron 14 -7
Minnesota 28 - Nebraska 24 0.629 Minnesota 54 - Nebraska 21 -29
Miss State 21 - Alabama 31 0.698 Miss State 24 - Alabama 31 -3
Mississippi 42 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 0.88 Mississippi 50 - Louisiana Lafayette 22 -10
Missouri 35 - Tennessee 24 0.76 Missouri 50 - Tennessee 17 -22
Navy 34 - Southern Methodist 31 0.535 Navy 43 - Southern Methodist 40 0
Nevada 42 - San Jose State 21 0.958 Nevada 59 - San Jose State 14 -24
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Brigham Young 17 0.718 Nevada Las Vegas 21 - Brigham Young 31 20
North Texas 35 - Texas El Paso 13 0.951 North Texas 45 - Texas El Paso 10 -13
Northern Illinois 41 - Ball State 6 0.981 Northern Illinois 63 - Ball State 17 -11
Northwestern 28 - Purdue 21 0.683 Northwestern 23 - Purdue 13 -3
Ohio 34 - Toledo 35 0.579 Ohio 38 - Toledo 10 -29
Ohio State 41 - Michigan State 28 0.737 Ohio State 48 - Michigan State 3 -32
Oklahoma 35 - Texas Christian 34 0.57 Oklahoma 38 - Texas Christian 20 -17
Penn State 42 - Rutgers 13 0.987 Penn State 35 - Rutgers 6 0
Pittsburgh 34 - North Carolina 24 0.758 Pittsburgh 31 - North Carolina 34 13
Rice 13 - Southern Miss 21 0.783 Rice 34 - Southern Miss 43 1
South Alabama 13 - Arkansas State 27 0.796 South Alabama 24 - Arkansas State 19 -19
South Carolina 28 - Florida 17 0.774 South Carolina 28 - Florida 20 3
Stanford 20 - Washington 27 0.684 Stanford 30 - Washington 22 -15
Syracuse 33 - Wake Forest 34 0.5 Syracuse 43 - Wake Forest 64 20
Texas 42 - Kansas 7 0.991 Texas 42 - Kansas 27 20
Texas AM 35 - New Mexico 13 0.91 Texas AM 55 - New Mexico 14 -19
Texas San Antonio 20 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.6 Texas San Antonio 19 - Alabama Birmingham 24 8
Texas State 13 - Georgia State 20 0.717 Texas State 30 - Georgia State 33 -4
Texas Tech 42 - Baylor 34 0.75 Texas Tech 38 - Baylor 24 -6
UCLA 34 - Arizona State 38 0.564 UCLA 44 - Arizona State 37 -11
Utah 24 - Washington State 28 0.539 Utah 25 - Washington State 33 4
Vanderbilt 28 - Kentucky 31 0.529 Vanderbilt 21 - Kentucky 44 20
Western Michigan 35 - Kent State 10 0.97 Western Michigan 48 - Kent State 20 -3
Wisconsin 27 - Iowa 21 0.603 Wisconsin 38 - Iowa 14 -18


Number of FBS Games: 59
Number Correct: 45 = 76.2%
Expected Number Correct: 42.898 = 72.7%
Average Error: 11.33
Average Signed Error: -3.11

WEEK 12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Ohio 31 0.801 Akron 37 - Ohio 34 -17
Alabama 55 - FCS Team 0 Alabama 56 - FCS Team 0
Arkansas 21 - Miss State 41 0.845 Arkansas 21 - Miss State 28 -13
Arkansas State 34 - Texas State 10 0.899 Arkansas State 30 - Texas State 12 6
Auburn 59 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.99 Auburn 42 - Louisiana Monroe 14 14
Ball State 17 - Buffalo 38 0.904 Ball State 24 - Buffalo 40 -5
Baylor 20 - Iowa State 35 0.87 Baylor 13 - Iowa State 23 -5
Boise State 38 - Air Force 21 0.824 Boise State 44 - Air Force 19 -8
Bowling Green 24 - Toledo 35 0.796 Bowling Green 37 - Toledo 66 18
Brigham Young 23 - Massachusetts 24 0.552 Brigham Young 10 - Massachusetts 16 5
Clemson 52 - FCS Team 0 Clemson 61 - FCS Team 3
Colorado State 49 - San Jose State 14 0.981 Colorado State 42 - San Jose State 14 7
Connecticut 14 - Boston College 38 0.921 Connecticut 16 - Boston College 39 -1
Duke 20 - Georgia Tech 31 0.762 Duke 43 - Georgia Tech 20 -34
East Carolina 28 - Cincinnati 31 0.585 East Carolina 48 - Cincinnati 20 -31
Florida 31 - Alabama Birmingham 17 0.77 Florida 36 - Alabama Birmingham 7 -15
Florida Atlantic 38 - Florida International 17 0.848 Florida Atlantic 52 - Florida International 14 -17
Florida State 42 - FCS Team 7 Florida State 77 - FCS Team 6
Georgia 41 - Kentucky 17 0.948 Georgia 42 - Kentucky 13 -5
Georgia Southern 10 - South Alabama 17 0.719 Georgia Southern 52 - South Alabama 0 -59
Idaho 28 - Coastal Carolina 20 0.731 Idaho 7 - Coastal Carolina 13 14
Indiana 31 - Rutgers 24 0.749 Indiana 41 - Rutgers 0 -34
Iowa 27 - Purdue 14 0.721 Iowa 15 - Purdue 24 22
Kansas 24 - Oklahoma 56 0.983 Kansas 3 - Oklahoma 41 6
Kent State 10 - Central Michigan 28 0.873 Kent State 23 - Central Michigan 42 1
Louisiana Lafayette 27 - New Mexico St 28 0.558 Louisiana Lafayette 47 - New Mexico St 34 -14
Louisville 45 - Syracuse 41 0.678 Louisville 56 - Syracuse 10 -42
Memphis 45 - Southern Methodist 34 0.776 Memphis 66 - Southern Methodist 45 -10
Miami FL 42 - Virginia 14 0.877 Miami FL 44 - Virginia 28 12
Miami OH 19 - Eastern Michigan 20 0.512 Miami OH 24 - Eastern Michigan 27 2
Michigan State 38 - Maryland 21 0.826 Michigan State 17 - Maryland 7 7
Mississippi 38 - Texas AM 42 0.651 Mississippi 24 - Texas AM 31 3
New Mexico 21 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 0.56 New Mexico 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 38 0
North Carolina 42 - FCS Team 17 North Carolina 65 - FCS Team 10
North Texas 24 - Army 28 0.67 North Texas 52 - Army 49 -7
Northern Illinois 31 - Western Michigan 24 0.762 Northern Illinois 35 - Western Michigan 31 3
Northwestern 31 - Minnesota 24 0.727 Northwestern 39 - Minnesota 0 -32
Notre Dame 48 - Navy 21 0.912 Notre Dame 24 - Navy 17 20
Ohio State 52 - Illinois 14 0.956 Ohio State 52 - Illinois 14 0
Oklahoma State 49 - Kansas State 31 0.908 Oklahoma State 40 - Kansas State 45 23
Old Dominion 31 - Rice 17 0.858 Old Dominion 24 - Rice 21 11
Oregon 38 - Arizona 42 0.591 Oregon 48 - Arizona 28 -24
Oregon State 27 - Arizona State 35 0.73 Oregon State 24 - Arizona State 40 8
Penn State 48 - Nebraska 17 0.976 Penn State 56 - Nebraska 44 19
San Diego State 31 - Nevada 17 0.793 San Diego State 42 - Nevada 23 -5
South Carolina 41 - FCS Team 7 South Carolina 31 - FCS Team 10
South Florida 41 - Tulsa 21 0.803 South Florida 27 - Tulsa 20 13
Southern California 45 - UCLA 31 0.815 Southern California 28 - UCLA 23 9
Southern Miss 20 - Charlotte 7 0.806 Southern Miss 66 - Charlotte 21 -32
Stanford 35 - California 21 0.732 Stanford 17 - California 14 11
Temple 20 - Central Florida 35 0.868 Temple 19 - Central Florida 45 11
Tennessee 14 - Louisiana State 27 0.787 Tennessee 10 - Louisiana State 30 7
Texas El Paso 10 - Louisiana Tech 24 0.885 Texas El Paso 21 - Louisiana Tech 42 7
Texas San Antonio 10 - Marshall 17 0.705 Texas San Antonio 9 - Marshall 7 -9
Texas Tech 27 - Texas Christian 35 0.782 Texas Tech 3 - Texas Christian 27 16
Tulane 21 - Houston 27 0.62 Tulane 20 - Houston 17 -9
Utah State 34 - Hawaii 17 0.849 Utah State 38 - Hawaii 0 -21
Vanderbilt 31 - Missouri 45 0.755 Vanderbilt 17 - Missouri 45 14
Virginia Tech 38 - Pittsburgh 17 0.907 Virginia Tech 20 - Pittsburgh 14 15
Wake Forest 38 - NC State 35 0.559 Wake Forest 30 - NC State 24 -3
Washington 31 - Utah 14 0.814 Washington 33 - Utah 30 14
West Virginia 34 - Texas 28 0.611 West Virginia 14 - Texas 28 20
Western Kentucky 19 - Middle Tennessee 20 0.522 Western Kentucky 41 - Middle Tennessee 38 -4
Wisconsin 31 - Michigan 20 0.783 Wisconsin 24 - Michigan 10 -3
Wyoming 17 - Fresno State 10 0.613 Wyoming 7 - Fresno State 13 13


Number of FBS Games: 60
Number Correct: 45 = 75%
Expected Number Correct: 46.609 = 77.6%
Average Error: 13.5
Average Signed Error: -1.8

WEEK 13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Utah State 28 0.575 Air Force 38 - Utah State 35 -4
Akron 24 - Kent State 6 0.925 Akron 24 - Kent State 14 8
Alabama Birmingham 28 - Texas El Paso 6 0.878 Alabama Birmingham 28 - Texas El Paso 7 1
Arizona State 42 - Arizona 41 0.547 Arizona State 42 - Arizona 30 -11
Arkansas 34 - Missouri 45 0.744 Arkansas 45 - Missouri 48 -8
Auburn 31 - Alabama 28 0.529 Auburn 26 - Alabama 14 -9
Ball State 17 - Miami OH 34 0.83 Ball State 7 - Miami OH 28 4
Buffalo 27 - Ohio 34 0.718 Buffalo 31 - Ohio 24 -14
Central Florida 38 - South Florida 24 0.837 Central Florida 49 - South Florida 42 7
Central Michigan 23 - Northern Illinois 24 0.529 Central Michigan 31 - Northern Illinois 24 -8
Charlotte 10 - Florida Atlantic 41 0.96 Charlotte 12 - Florida Atlantic 31 -12
Cincinnati 29 - Connecticut 28 0.524 Cincinnati 22 - Connecticut 21 0
Eastern Michigan 34 - Bowling Green 20 0.886 Eastern Michigan 34 - Bowling Green 31 11
Florida 21 - Florida State 24 0.53 Florida 22 - Florida State 38 13
Florida International 24 - Western Kentucky 20 0.582 Florida International 41 - Western Kentucky 17 -20
Fresno State 17 - Boise State 21 0.592 Fresno State 28 - Boise State 17 -15
Georgia State 20 - Appalachian State 21 0.6 Georgia State 10 - Appalachian State 31 20
Georgia Tech 24 - Georgia 35 0.749 Georgia Tech 7 - Georgia 38 20
Hawaii 14 - Brigham Young 21 0.708 Hawaii 20 - Brigham Young 30 3
Houston 27 - Navy 24 0.529 Houston 24 - Navy 14 -7
Illinois 17 - Northwestern 35 0.869 Illinois 7 - Northwestern 42 17
Kansas State 27 - Iowa State 31 0.647 Kansas State 20 - Iowa State 19 -5
Kentucky 35 - Louisville 42 0.687 Kentucky 17 - Louisville 44 20
Louisiana Lafayette 27 - Georgia Southern 24 0.524 Louisiana Lafayette 24 - Georgia Southern 34 13
Louisiana Monroe 28 - Arkansas State 34 0.635 Louisiana Monroe 50 - Arkansas State 67 11
Louisiana State 31 - Texas AM 24 0.704 Louisiana State 45 - Texas AM 21 -17
Louisiana Tech 17 - Texas San Antonio 13 0.639 Louisiana Tech 20 - Texas San Antonio 6 -10
Marshall 24 - Southern Miss 14 0.716 Marshall 27 - Southern Miss 28 11
Maryland 24 - Penn State 45 0.919 Maryland 3 - Penn State 66 42
Memphis 56 - East Carolina 31 0.934 Memphis 70 - East Carolina 13 -32
Michigan 28 - Ohio State 38 0.691 Michigan 20 - Ohio State 31 1
Middle Tennessee 24 - Old Dominion 17 0.737 Middle Tennessee 41 - Old Dominion 10 -24
Minnesota 17 - Wisconsin 35 0.826 Minnesota 0 - Wisconsin 31 13
Miss State 42 - Mississippi 24 0.829 Miss State 28 - Mississippi 31 21
NC State 38 - North Carolina 21 0.869 NC State 33 - North Carolina 21 5
Nebraska 27 - Iowa 35 0.691 Nebraska 14 - Iowa 56 34
Nevada 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 31 0.627 Nevada 23 - Nevada Las Vegas 16 -3
New Mexico St 27 - Idaho 21 0.663 New Mexico St 17 - Idaho 10 -1
Oklahoma 48 - West Virginia 31 0.875 Oklahoma 59 - West Virginia 31 -11
Oklahoma State 59 - Kansas 24 0.988 Oklahoma State 58 - Kansas 17 -6
Oregon 41 - Oregon State 21 0.778 Oregon 69 - Oregon State 10 -39
Pittsburgh 20 - Miami FL 35 0.79 Pittsburgh 24 - Miami FL 14 -25
Purdue 28 - Indiana 21 0.684 Purdue 31 - Indiana 24 0
Rice 24 - North Texas 38 0.883 Rice 14 - North Texas 30 2
Rutgers 14 - Michigan State 27 0.762 Rutgers 7 - Michigan State 40 20
San Diego State 31 - New Mexico 10 0.876 San Diego State 35 - New Mexico 10 -4
San Jose State 6 - Wyoming 34 0.965 San Jose State 20 - Wyoming 17 -31
South Carolina 17 - Clemson 31 0.784 South Carolina 10 - Clemson 34 10
Southern Methodist 35 - Tulane 28 0.721 Southern Methodist 41 - Tulane 38 4
Stanford 24 - Notre Dame 31 0.642 Stanford 38 - Notre Dame 20 -25
Syracuse 27 - Boston College 35 0.659 Syracuse 14 - Boston College 42 20
Tennessee 28 - Vanderbilt 21 0.722 Tennessee 24 - Vanderbilt 42 25
Texas 35 - Texas Tech 24 0.796 Texas 23 - Texas Tech 27 15
Texas Christian 35 - Baylor 10 0.97 Texas Christian 45 - Baylor 22 2
Toledo 38 - Western Michigan 28 0.774 Toledo 37 - Western Michigan 10 -17
Troy 27 - Texas State 6 0.896 Troy 62 - Texas State 9 -32
Tulsa 26 - Temple 27 0.507 Tulsa 22 - Temple 43 20
UCLA 35 - California 34 0.541 UCLA 30 - California 27 -2
Utah 31 - Colorado 24 0.716 Utah 34 - Colorado 13 -14
Virginia 21 - Virginia Tech 34 0.741 Virginia 0 - Virginia Tech 10 -3
Wake Forest 38 - Duke 24 0.748 Wake Forest 23 - Duke 31 22
Washington 31 - Washington State 20 0.712 Washington 41 - Washington State 14 -16


Number of FBS Games: 62
Number Correct: 48 = 77.4%
Expected Number Correct: 45.509 = 73.4%
Average Error: 13.54
Average Signed Error: -0.17

WEEK 14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 34 - Louisiana Lafayette 17 0.867 Appalachian State 63 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 -32
Arkansas State 25 - Troy 24 0.517 Arkansas State 25 - Troy 32 8
Auburn 28 - Georgia 27 0.553 Auburn 7 - Georgia 28 22
Boise State 24 - Fresno State 17 0.654 Boise State 17 - Fresno State 14 4
Central Florida 42 - Memphis 41 0.561 Central Florida 62 - Memphis 55 -6
Coastal Carolina 21 - Georgia Southern 24 0.525 Coastal Carolina 28 - Georgia Southern 17 -14
Florida Atlantic 41 - North Texas 31 0.765 Florida Atlantic 41 - North Texas 17 -14
Florida International 21 - Massachusetts 24 0.534 Florida International 63 - Massachusetts 45 -21
Florida State 45 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.926 Florida State 42 - Louisiana Monroe 10 -11
Georgia State 17 - Idaho 10 0.716 Georgia State 10 - Idaho 24 21
Miami FL 24 - Clemson 31 0.644 Miami FL 3 - Clemson 38 28
New Mexico St 24 - South Alabama 14 0.647 New Mexico St 22 - South Alabama 17 5
Oklahoma 34 - Texas Christian 31 0.607 Oklahoma 41 - Texas Christian 17 -21
Southern California 27 - Stanford 31 0.563 Southern California 31 - Stanford 28 -7
Toledo 31 - Akron 17 0.795 Toledo 45 - Akron 28 -3
Wisconsin 31 - Ohio State 34 0.524 Wisconsin 21 - Ohio State 27 3


Number of FBS Games: 16
Number Correct: 10 = 62.5%
Expected Number Correct: 10.398 = 64.9%
Average Error: 13.75
Average Signed Error: -2.38

WEEK 15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Navy 25 - Army 24 0.543 Navy 13 - Army 14 2

WEEK 16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 28 - NC State 35 0.709 Arizona State 31 - NC State 52 14
Arkansas State 28 - Middle Tennessee 21 0.64 Arkansas State 30 - Middle Tennessee 35 12
Army 20 - San Diego State 21 0.59 Army 42 - San Diego State 35 -8
Auburn 38 - Central Florida 31 0.676 Auburn 27 - Central Florida 34 14
Boston College 24 - Iowa 27 0.531 Boston College 20 - Iowa 27 4
Clemson 27 - Alabama 24 0.535 Clemson 6 - Alabama 24 21
Colorado State 25 - Marshall 24 0.525 Colorado State 28 - Marshall 31 4
Florida Atlantic 34 - Akron 17 0.884 Florida Atlantic 50 - Akron 3 -30
Florida International 24 - Temple 28 0.632 Florida International 3 - Temple 28 21
Florida State 34 - Southern Miss 17 0.842 Florida State 42 - Southern Miss 13 -12
Georgia State 19 - Western Kentucky 20 0.519 Georgia State 27 - Western Kentucky 17 -11
Houston 17 - Fresno State 14 0.525 Houston 27 - Fresno State 33 9
Louisiana State 27 - Notre Dame 31 0.58 Louisiana State 17 - Notre Dame 21 0
Memphis 38 - Iowa State 34 0.673 Memphis 20 - Iowa State 21 5
Miami FL 21 - Wisconsin 27 0.614 Miami FL 24 - Wisconsin 34 4
Michigan State 27 - Washington State 24 0.555 Michigan State 42 - Washington State 17 -22
Miss State 34 - Louisville 35 0.55 Miss State 31 - Louisville 27 -5
Missouri 35 - Texas 34 0.527 Missouri 16 - Texas 33 18
Navy 28 - Virginia 24 0.618 Navy 49 - Virginia 7 -38
New Mexico St 21 - Utah State 31 0.729 New Mexico St 26 - Utah State 20 -16
North Texas 24 - Troy 31 0.708 North Texas 30 - Troy 50 13
Northern Illinois 20 - Duke 24 0.653 Northern Illinois 14 - Duke 36 18
Northwestern 35 - Kentucky 21 0.807 Northwestern 24 - Kentucky 23 13
Ohio 34 - Alabama Birmingham 21 0.743 Ohio 41 - Alabama Birmingham 6 -22
Ohio State 42 - Southern California 31 0.762 Ohio State 24 - Southern California 7 -6
Oklahoma 31 - Georgia 38 0.646 Oklahoma 48 - Georgia 54 -1
Oklahoma State 34 - Virginia Tech 35 0.521 Oklahoma State 30 - Virginia Tech 21 -10
Oregon 31 - Boise State 28 0.526 Oregon 28 - Boise State 38 13
Penn State 34 - Washington 28 0.653 Penn State 35 - Washington 28 -1
Purdue 38 - Arizona 31 0.682 Purdue 38 - Arizona 35 4
South Carolina 17 - Michigan 24 0.699 South Carolina 26 - Michigan 19 -14
South Florida 35 - Texas Tech 31 0.617 South Florida 38 - Texas Tech 34 0
Southern Methodist 35 - Louisiana Tech 28 0.774 Southern Methodist 10 - Louisiana Tech 51 48
Texas AM 35 - Wake Forest 41 0.668 Texas AM 52 - Wake Forest 55 -3
Texas Christian 24 - Stanford 21 0.53 Texas Christian 39 - Stanford 37 1
Toledo 31 - Appalachian State 24 0.668 Toledo 0 - Appalachian State 34 41
UCLA 31 - Kansas State 35 0.589 UCLA 17 - Kansas State 35 14
West Virginia 31 - Utah 34 0.53 West Virginia 14 - Utah 30 13
Wyoming 17 - Central Michigan 20 0.566 Wyoming 37 - Central Michigan 14 -26

WEEK 17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 24 - Georgia 27 0.55 Alabama 26 - Georgia 23 -6


Number of FBS Games: 41
Number Correct: 22 = 53.6%
Expected Number Correct: 25.889 = 63.1%
Average Error: 13.09
Average Signed Error: 1.82