Note: For this year, I have reduced the home court advantage from 4 to 2.

Note: The first week I set a home court advantage of 4.

GAMES OF 11-25

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 61 - East Tennessee State 73 0.817 Abilene Christian 70 - East Tennessee State 47 -35
Alabama 80 - Jacksonville State 63 0.878 Alabama 81 - Jacksonville State 57 -7
Alabama Birmingham 78 - Alcorn State 58 0.903 Alabama Birmingham 99 - Alcorn State 50 -29
Arizona State 75 - Rhode Island 74 0.527 Arizona State 94 - Rhode Island 88 -5
Arkansas 94 - Mississippi Valley State 55 0.982 Arkansas 142 - Mississippi Valley State 62 -41
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Prairie View 66 0.636 Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Prairie View 66 0
Army 86 - Unranked 56 Army 93 - Unranked 32
Boston College 65 - Villanova 83 0.902 Boston College 67 - Villanova 76 -9
Bradley 70 - Toledo 72 0.546 Bradley 61 - Toledo 59 -4
Brigham Young 99 - Unranked 51 Brigham Young 108 - Unranked 59
Butler 83 - Western Michigan 61 0.928 Butler 66 - Western Michigan 62 18
Cal State Northridge 89 - Unranked 59 Cal State Northridge 97 - Unranked 79
Chicago State 58 - Ohio 82 0.921 Chicago State 61 - Ohio 84 -1
Connecticut 86 - Central Connecticut State 56 0.965 Connecticut 102 - Central Connecticut State 75 3
Davidson 80 - High Point 59 0.913 Davidson 82 - High Point 73 12
Elon 86 - Unranked 56 Elon 82 - Unranked 52
Florida Gulf Coast 72 - Florida AM 59 0.836 Florida Gulf Coast 65 - Florida AM 56 4
Florida International 90 - Unranked 56 Florida International 85 - Unranked 81
Fresno State 92 - Unranked 51 Fresno State 87 - Unranked 47
Furman 92 - Unranked 49 Furman 95 - Unranked 62
Georgetown 81 - UMBC 65 0.859 Georgetown 70 - UMBC 62 8
Georgia Southern 92 - Unranked 53 Georgia Southern 97 - Unranked 65
Georgia Tech 76 - Georgia State 67 0.725 Georgia Tech 120 - Georgia State 123 12
Grand Canyon 75 - Grambling State 60 0.853 Grand Canyon 69 - Grambling State 53 -1
Houston 84 - Lamar 56 0.955 Houston 89 - Lamar 45 -16
Illinois 83 - North Carolina AT 58 0.939 Illinois 122 - North Carolina AT 60 -37
Indiana 84 - Tennessee Tech 57 0.956 Indiana 89 - Tennessee Tech 59 -3
Iowa 84 - North Carolina Central 59 0.934 Iowa 97 - North Carolina Central 67 -5
IPFW 74 - Southeast Louisiana 63 0.745 IPFW 67 - Southeast Louisiana 63 7
Jacksonville 84 - Unranked 56 Jacksonville 99 - Unranked 57
James Madison 86 - Unranked 57 James Madison 89 - Unranked 55
Kansas State 80 - Drake 64 0.851 Kansas State 70 - Drake 80 26
Kennesaw St 79 - Unranked 60 Kennesaw St 87 - Unranked 40
Kentucky 88 - Morehead State 55 0.975 Kentucky 81 - Morehead State 45 -3
Louisville 86 - Evansville 60 0.947 Louisville 79 - Evansville 44 -9
Loyola Marymount 74 - Southern Utah 64 0.766 Loyola Marymount 85 - Southern Utah 83 8
Marquette 87 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 52 0.983 Marquette 99 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 57 -7
Maryland 78 - Old Dominion 61 0.892 Maryland 85 - Old Dominion 67 -1
Memphis 70 - Saint Marys 75 0.614 Memphis 73 - Saint Marys 56 -22
Mercer 87 - Unranked 53 Mercer 79 - Unranked 48
Miami OH 72 - North Dakota 66 0.675 Miami OH 81 - North Dakota 67 -8
Michigan 84 - Bowling Green 63 0.911 Michigan 96 - Bowling Green 82 7
Michigan State 84 - Eastern Michigan 58 0.937 Michigan State 83 - Eastern Michigan 67 10
Minnesota 85 - Green Bay 68 0.868 Minnesota 99 - Green Bay 69 -13
Mississippi State 74 - Clemson 73 0.52 Mississippi State 42 - Clemson 53 12
Missouri 79 - Oral Roberts 64 0.823 Missouri 91 - Oral Roberts 64 -12
Morgan State 64 - Mt St Marys 65 0.533 Morgan State 55 - Mt St Marys 62 6
Navy 68 - George Washington 67 0.516 Navy 78 - George Washington 71 -6
NC State 84 - Charleston Southern 62 0.935 NC State 95 - Charleston Southern 61 -12
Nebraska 84 - Mcneese State 62 0.921 Nebraska 102 - Mcneese State 55 -25
Nevada Las Vegas 79 - Montana State 65 0.818 Nevada Las Vegas 78 - Montana State 91 27
New Hampshire 82 - Unranked 55 New Hampshire 93 - Unranked 54
North Alabama 84 - Unranked 57 North Alabama 98 - Unranked 74
North Carolina 83 - College of Charleston 65 0.891 North Carolina 79 - College of Charleston 60 -1
North Dakota State 66 - Nevada 76 0.763 North Dakota State 48 - Nevada 62 4
North Florida 78 - Eastern Kentucky 69 0.742 North Florida 67 - Eastern Kentucky 80 22
Northern Illinois 71 - Illinois Chicago 65 0.673 Northern Illinois 61 - Illinois Chicago 65 10
Northern Iowa 71 - Western Kentucky 70 0.532 Northern Iowa 87 - Western Kentucky 93 7
Northern Kentucky 71 - Ball State 66 0.631 Northern Kentucky 74 - Ball State 73 4
Ohio State 81 - Illinois State 63 0.891 Ohio State 94 - Illinois State 67 -9
Omaha 71 - Austin Peay 74 0.564 Omaha 66 - Austin Peay 72 3
Oregon State 76 - California 67 0.718 Oregon State 71 - California 63 1
Pacific 73 - UC Riverside 60 0.821 Pacific 66 - UC Riverside 60 7
Pepperdine 69 - UC Irvine 75 0.659 Pepperdine 86 - UC Irvine 72 -20
Pittsburgh 78 - Saint Francis Penn 65 0.807 Pittsburgh 70 - Saint Francis Penn 80 23
Portland 69 - Seattle 71 0.552 Portland 72 - Seattle 84 10
Providence 81 - Fairfield 57 0.933 Providence 97 - Fairfield 56 -17
Purdue 76 - Liberty 62 0.813 Purdue 77 - Liberty 64 1
Quinnipiac 73 - Fairleigh Dickinson 69 0.606 Quinnipiac 84 - Fairleigh Dickinson 66 -14
Rutgers 80 - Sacred Heart 62 0.899 Rutgers 86 - Sacred Heart 63 -5
Sacramento State 83 - Unranked 53 Sacramento State 101 - Unranked 57
Saint Johns 77 - Saint Peters 62 0.835 Saint Johns 76 - Saint Peters 75 14
Saint Louis 81 - SIU Edwardsville 56 0.943 Saint Louis 89 - SIU Edwardsville 52 -12
San Diego State 75 - UCLA 69 0.66 San Diego State 73 - UCLA 58 -9
San Francisco 81 - UMass Lowell 66 0.844 San Francisco 68 - UMass Lowell 76 23
Santa Clara 79 - Idaho State 64 0.859 Santa Clara 62 - Idaho State 49 2
South Alabama 72 - Florida Atlantic 66 0.659 South Alabama 68 - Florida Atlantic 66 4
South Carolina State 65 - Appalachian State 74 0.748 South Carolina State 61 - Appalachian State 81 11
South Carolina Upstate 82 - Unranked 60 South Carolina Upstate 72 - Unranked 82
South Dakota 66 - Colorado 78 0.788 South Dakota 61 - Colorado 84 11
South Dakota State 70 - West Virginia 80 0.746 South Dakota State 71 - West Virginia 79 -2
South Florida 90 - Unranked 52 South Florida 94 - Unranked 84
Southern California 82 - Cal Baptist 64 0.858 Southern California 95 - Cal Baptist 87 10
Southern Methodist 79 - Sam Houston State 62 0.878 Southern Methodist 97 - Sam Houston State 67 -13
Tarleton State 75 - Unranked 71 Tarleton State 103 - Unranked 48
Texas 83 - Texas Pan American 60 0.932 Texas 91 - Texas Pan American 55 -13
Texas AM CC 82 - Unranked 54 Texas AM CC 64 - Unranked 53
Texas Arlington 71 - Oklahoma State 75 0.601 Texas Arlington 68 - Oklahoma State 75 3
Texas Christian 91 - Houston Baptist 62 0.957 Texas Christian 69 - Houston Baptist 45 5
Texas El Paso 85 - Unranked 54 Texas El Paso 100 - Unranked 81
Texas State 88 - Unranked 50 Texas State 98 - Unranked 59
Texas Tech 88 - Northwestern State 54 0.966 Texas Tech 101 - Northwestern State 58 -9
The Citadel 88 - Unranked 64 The Citadel 89 - Unranked 64
UC Davis 70 - Nicholls State 67 0.569 UC Davis 93 - Nicholls State 101 11
UMKC 86 - Unranked 55 UMKC 105 - Unranked 35
UNC Wilmington 73 - Western Carolina 72 0.503 UNC Wilmington 76 - Western Carolina 98 23
Virginia 77 - Towson 55 0.943 Virginia 89 - Towson 54 -13
Virginia Commonwealth 72 - Utah State 71 0.514 Virginia Commonwealth 85 - Utah State 69 -15
Virginia Military Institute 85 - Unranked 59 Virginia Military Institute 90 - Unranked 63
Virginia Tech 78 - Radford 62 0.875 Virginia Tech 77 - Radford 62 1
Wake Forest 89 - Delaware State 58 0.965 Wake Forest 111 - Delaware State 51 -29
Washington State 79 - Texas Southern 70 0.715 Washington State 56 - Texas Southern 52 5
Weber State 87 - Unranked 55 Weber State 88 - Unranked 60
Wisconsin 83 - Eastern Illinois 55 0.957 Wisconsin 77 - Eastern Illinois 67 18
Wofford 92 - Unranked 50 Wofford 88 - Unranked 49
Xavier 82 - Oakland 63 0.92 Xavier 101 - Oakland 49 -33

GAMES OF 11-26

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Austin Peay 66 - East Tennessee State 75 0.752 Austin Peay 67 - East Tennessee State 66 -10
Boston College 70 - Rhode Island 77 0.687 Boston College 69 - Rhode Island 64 -12
Brigham Young 85 - New Orleans 59 0.949 Brigham Young 86 - New Orleans 61 1
California 89 - Unranked 55 California 86 - Unranked 61
Clemson 70 - Purdue 76 0.657 Clemson 81 - Purdue 70 -17
George Mason 91 - Unranked 54 George Mason 66 - Unranked 65
Howard 61 - Belmont 82 0.926 Howard 78 - Belmont 95 -4
Illinois 91 - Chicago State 54 0.987 Illinois 97 - Chicago State 38 -22
Kansas 78 - Gonzaga 77 0.508 Kansas 90 - Gonzaga 102 13
Louisiana State 88 - SIU Edwardsville 61 0.959 Louisiana State 94 - SIU Edwardsville 81 14
Middle Tennessee 73 - Omaha 72 0.516 Middle Tennessee 59 - Omaha 60 2
Mississippi State 73 - Liberty 65 0.712 Mississippi State 73 - Liberty 84 19
Nebraska 75 - Nevada 78 0.559 Nebraska 66 - Nevada 69 0
North Carolina Central 65 - Southern 62 0.577 North Carolina Central 85 - Southern 78 -4
North Texas 83 - Mississippi Valley State 56 0.947 North Texas 116 - Mississippi Valley State 62 -27
Northern Iowa 65 - Saint Marys 73 0.716 Northern Iowa 64 - Saint Marys 66 -6
Oakland 68 - Toledo 74 0.648 Oakland 53 - Toledo 80 21
Ohio 74 - North Carolina AT 63 0.778 Ohio 84 - North Carolina AT 72 -1
Saint Johns 81 - La Salle 68 0.802 Saint Johns 82 - La Salle 65 -4
Saint Josephs 68 - Auburn 85 0.854 Saint Josephs 91 - Auburn 96 -12
Towson 66 - San Francisco 74 0.722 Towson 68 - San Francisco 79 3
Utah State 75 - South Dakota State 70 0.634 Utah State 59 - South Dakota State 83 29
Villanova 81 - Arizona State 71 0.757 Villanova 83 - Arizona State 74 1
Virginia Commonwealth 72 - West Virginia 77 0.624 Virginia Commonwealth 66 - West Virginia 78 7
Western Kentucky 71 - Memphis 76 0.636 Western Kentucky 75 - Memphis 69 -11
Xavier 80 - Bradley 65 0.861 Xavier 51 - Bradley 50 14

GAMES OF 11-27

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 88 - Unranked 56 Appalachian State 105 - Unranked 23
Arizona 84 - Grambling State 55 0.958 Arizona 74 - Grambling State 55 10
Army 74 - Central Connecticut State 63 0.766 Army 79 - Central Connecticut State 57 -11
Austin Peay 70 - Abilene Christian 67 0.589 Austin Peay 72 - Abilene Christian 80 11
Buffalo 78 - Towson 67 0.772 Buffalo 74 - Towson 65 2
Cal Poly 83 - Unranked 60 Cal Poly 100 - Unranked 46
Charlotte 72 - East Carolina 69 0.586 Charlotte 57 - East Carolina 66 12
Chicago State 62 - North Carolina AT 74 0.785 Chicago State 44 - North Carolina AT 74 18
Connecticut 81 - Hartford 63 0.899 Connecticut 69 - Hartford 57 6
East Tennessee State 75 - Middle Tennessee 64 0.795 East Tennessee State 57 - Middle Tennessee 43 -3
Eastern Kentucky 72 - Charleston Southern 68 0.635 Eastern Kentucky 60 - Charleston Southern 50 -6
Florida International 90 - Unranked 56 Florida International 82 - Unranked 75
George Mason 71 - Belmont 73 0.58 George Mason 67 - Belmont 77 8
Georgia State 92 - Unranked 52 Georgia State 105 - Unranked 60
Georgia Tech 77 - Mercer 63 0.83 Georgia Tech 73 - Mercer 83 24
Gonzaga 82 - Auburn 74 0.685 Gonzaga 90 - Auburn 67 -15
Houston 80 - Boise State 65 0.847 Houston 68 - Boise State 58 5
Howard 81 - Unranked 62 Howard 71 - Unranked 85
Illinois 80 - Ohio 67 0.799 Illinois 77 - Ohio 75 11
Incarnate Word 66 - Rice 75 0.746 Incarnate Word 53 - Rice 68 6
Iowa 87 - Southern 59 0.953 Iowa 103 - Southern 76 1
Jacksonville State 70 - Florida Atlantic 65 0.626 Jacksonville State 60 - Florida Atlantic 50 -5
James Madison 69 - Norfolk State 66 0.609 James Madison 73 - Norfolk State 83 13
Kansas State 75 - Colorado 69 0.634 Kansas State 58 - Colorado 76 24
Louisiana Tech 72 - Texas Arlington 67 0.66 Louisiana Tech 76 - Texas Arlington 71 0
Louisville 78 - Seton Hall 72 0.684 Louisville 71 - Seton Hall 70 5
Marquette 86 - Eastern Illinois 60 0.938 Marquette 75 - Eastern Illinois 50 1
Marshall 81 - Arkansas State 69 0.796 Marshall 70 - Arkansas State 56 -2
Maryland 82 - Navy 56 0.958 Maryland 82 - Navy 52 -4
Morehead State 64 - Richmond 78 0.855 Morehead State 64 - Richmond 82 4
NC State 85 - North Florida 68 0.871 NC State 86 - North Florida 51 -18
Nicholls State 72 - Idaho State 67 0.623 Nicholls State 70 - Idaho State 51 -14
Oakland 68 - Bradley 72 0.603 Oakland 60 - Bradley 74 10
Oregon State 94 - Unranked 51 Oregon State 114 - Unranked 42
Prairie View 69 - Evansville 70 0.549 Prairie View 64 - Evansville 61 -4
Rutgers 81 - Fairleigh Dickinson 63 0.9 Rutgers 96 - Fairleigh Dickinson 75 -3
Saint Josephs 64 - Kansas 89 0.944 Saint Josephs 72 - Kansas 94 -3
Saint Peters 66 - La Salle 68 0.569 Saint Peters 62 - La Salle 51 -13
San Diego State 73 - UC Irvine 62 0.778 San Diego State 77 - UC Irvine 58 -8
Santa Clara 74 - UC Davis 66 0.735 Santa Clara 66 - UC Davis 63 5
South Alabama 88 - Unranked 53 South Alabama 95 - Unranked 75
South Dakota 71 - Drake 73 0.557 South Dakota 53 - Drake 69 14
South Dakota State 66 - Saint Marys 76 0.736 South Dakota State 59 - Saint Marys 72 3
Syracuse 86 - Bryant 58 0.951 Syracuse 85 - Bryant 84 27
Texas San Antonio 91 - Unranked 57 Texas San Antonio 97 - Unranked 71
Texas Tech 83 - Sam Houston State 58 0.945 Texas Tech 84 - Sam Houston State 52 -7
Tulane 74 - Lamar 68 0.679 Tulane 66 - Lamar 57 -3
UCLA 82 - Pepperdine 71 0.77 UCLA 107 - Pepperdine 98 2
UMKC 86 - Unranked 55 UMKC 138 - Unranked 97
UNC Asheville 71 - UNC Wilmington 70 0.501 UNC Asheville 68 - UNC Wilmington 76 9
UNC Greensboro 72 - Arkansas Little Rock 64 0.714 UNC Greensboro 77 - Arkansas Little Rock 70 1
Unranked 57 - Seattle 85 Unranked 53 - Seattle 77
Utah State 72 - Northern Iowa 68 0.609 Utah State 82 - Northern Iowa 71 -7
Vanderbilt 76 - Valparaiso 69 0.668 Vanderbilt 77 - Valparaiso 71 1
Virginia 76 - San Francisco 61 0.857 Virginia 60 - San Francisco 61 16
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Memphis 73 0.517 Virginia Commonwealth 70 - Memphis 59 -10
Wake Forest 83 - Longwood 62 0.915 Wake Forest 71 - Longwood 60 10
West Virginia 80 - Western Kentucky 69 0.762 West Virginia 70 - Western Kentucky 64 5
Western Carolina 72 - Troy 70 0.552 Western Carolina 64 - Troy 66 4
Wisconsin 85 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 46 0.972 Wisconsin 92 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 58 5
Xavier 80 - Toledo 66 0.831 Xavier 76 - Toledo 73 11

GAMES OF 11-28

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 69 - Omaha 70 0.519 Abilene Christian 70 - Omaha 58 -13
Air Force 75 - Cal State Northridge 72 0.583 Air Force 66 - Cal State Northridge 61 -2
Alabama Birmingham 75 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.851 Alabama Birmingham 84 - Southeast Louisiana 59 -10
Arkansas 80 - North Texas 66 0.843 Arkansas 69 - North Texas 54 -1
Baylor 84 - UL Lafayette 66 0.894 Baylor 112 - UL Lafayette 82 -12
Belmont 92 - Unranked 52 Belmont 73 - Unranked 61
Bowling Green 81 - South Carolina State 60 0.927 Bowling Green 101 - South Carolina State 78 -2
Brigham Young 83 - Utah Valley 65 0.879 Brigham Young 82 - Utah Valley 60 -4
Buffalo 81 - Army 65 0.851 Buffalo 74 - Army 78 20
Coastal Carolina 90 - Unranked 55 Coastal Carolina 117 - Unranked 68
College of Charleston 90 - Unranked 50 College of Charleston 99 - Unranked 59
Denver 84 - Unranked 57 Denver 82 - Unranked 66
Duke 94 - Coppin State 51 0.972 Duke 81 - Coppin State 71 33
Elon 71 - High Point 65 0.679 Elon 76 - High Point 75 5
Furman 81 - South Carolina Upstate 56 0.939 Furman 91 - South Carolina Upstate 63 -3
Georgia Southern 92 - Unranked 53 Georgia Southern 91 - Unranked 79
Grand Canyon 89 - Unranked 54 Grand Canyon 94 - Unranked 63
Howard 62 - George Mason 80 0.905 Howard 70 - George Mason 84 -4
Illinois Chicago 74 - Central Michigan 72 0.558 Illinois Chicago 74 - Central Michigan 72 0
Illinois State 77 - UMass Lowell 69 0.729 Illinois State 82 - UMass Lowell 72 -2
Jacksonville 69 - Southern Miss 68 0.518 Jacksonville 66 - Southern Miss 51 -14
Kennesaw St 79 - Unranked 60 Kennesaw St 106 - Unranked 44
Lamar 67 - Lipscomb 74 0.695 Lamar 73 - Lipscomb 76 -4
Michigan State 83 - Notre Dame 68 0.848 Michigan State 80 - Notre Dame 70 5
Minnesota 80 - Loyola Marymount 64 0.87 Minnesota 88 - Loyola Marymount 73 1
Mt St Marys 62 - Navy 66 0.599 Mt St Marys 67 - Navy 73 2
Nebraska 76 - North Dakota State 68 0.718 Nebraska 79 - North Dakota State 57 -14
Northwestern State 61 - Texas Arlington 77 0.854 Northwestern State 71 - Texas Arlington 80 -7
Oklahoma State 85 - Texas Southern 65 0.887 Oklahoma State 85 - Texas Southern 65 0
Old Dominion 72 - William and Mary 65 0.708 Old Dominion 86 - William and Mary 78 -1
Oral Roberts 89 - Unranked 56 Oral Roberts 93 - Unranked 63
Penn State 87 - Virginia Military Institute 61 0.95 Penn State 86 - Virginia Military Institute 65 5
Pittsburgh 79 - Drexel 64 0.858 Pittsburgh 83 - Drexel 74 6
Portland 85 - Unranked 58 Portland 83 - Unranked 73
Radford 69 - Norfolk State 62 0.695 Radford 54 - Norfolk State 57 10
Rice 87 - Unranked 60 Rice 103 - Unranked 64
Saint Francis Penn 72 - UMBC 67 0.633 Saint Francis Penn 65 - UMBC 80 20
Saint Louis 73 - Louisiana State 76 0.587 Saint Louis 85 - Louisiana State 81 -7
Santa Clara 75 - Nicholls State 64 0.759 Santa Clara 73 - Nicholls State 57 -5
SIU Edwardsville 80 - Unranked 61 SIU Edwardsville 80 - Unranked 45
South Carolina 73 - Liberty 66 0.675 South Carolina 62 - Liberty 78 23
South Florida 67 - Rhode Island 74 0.69 South Florida 68 - Rhode Island 84 9
Southern California 78 - Montana 66 0.793 Southern California 76 - Montana 62 -2
Southern Utah 86 - Unranked 57 Southern Utah 95 - Unranked 47
Texas AM CC 61 - Texas State 68 0.696 Texas AM CC 63 - Texas State 75 5
Texas Christian 75 - Tulsa 72 0.584 Texas Christian 70 - Tulsa 65 -2
Texas Pan American 74 - Texas San Antonio 73 0.523 Texas Pan American 81 - Texas San Antonio 64 -16
UC Davis 73 - Idaho State 67 0.714 UC Davis 70 - Idaho State 61 -3
UMKC 74 - SE Missouri State 63 0.797 UMKC 66 - SE Missouri State 71 16
UNC Asheville 71 - Western Carolina 70 0.503 UNC Asheville 81 - Western Carolina 83 3
UNC Wilmington 72 - Troy 70 0.555 UNC Wilmington 73 - Troy 50 -21
Unranked 58 - Florida Atlantic 83 Unranked 41 - Florida Atlantic 83
Virginia Tech 69 - Villanova 78 0.738 Virginia Tech 81 - Villanova 73 -17
Washington State 75 - Eastern Washington 72 0.591 Washington State 71 - Eastern Washington 68 0
Wofford 92 - Unranked 50 Wofford 111 - Unranked 37
Wyoming 82 - Mississippi Valley State 60 0.917 Wyoming 97 - Mississippi Valley State 61 -14

GAMES OF 11-29

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 91 - Houston Baptist 64 0.954 Arizona State 100 - Houston Baptist 77 4
Baylor 78 - Washington 69 0.735 Baylor 86 - Washington 52 -25
Creighton 81 - North Dakota State 63 0.89 Creighton 69 - North Dakota State 58 7
Georgia 82 - Florida AM 57 0.933 Georgia 85 - Florida AM 75 15
Houston 72 - Texas Tech 73 0.505 Houston 64 - Texas Tech 53 -12
Incarnate Word 79 - Unranked 60 Incarnate Word 84 - Unranked 71
Iowa State 87 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 53 0.993 Iowa State 80 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 17
James Madison 66 - Radford 70 0.603 James Madison 67 - Radford 59 -12
Kentucky 83 - Richmond 65 0.895 Kentucky 64 - Richmond 76 30
Louisiana Tech 80 - Northwestern State 58 0.92 Louisiana Tech 91 - Northwestern State 77 8
Louisville 85 - Prairie View 58 0.959 Louisville 86 - Prairie View 64 5
Maryland 84 - Mt St Marys 54 0.999 Maryland 79 - Mt St Marys 61 12
Miami 83 - North Florida 67 0.849 Miami 77 - North Florida 59 -2
Michigan 84 - Oakland 60 0.94 Michigan 81 - Oakland 71 14
Morehead State 70 - Arkansas State 69 0.532 Morehead State 69 - Arkansas State 61 -7
Murray State 92 - Unranked 50 Murray State 173 - Unranked 95
Ohio State 88 - UMass Lowell 61 0.947 Ohio State 74 - UMass Lowell 64 17
Portland 85 - Unranked 58 Portland 74 - Unranked 69
Rutgers 77 - Hofstra 70 0.679 Rutgers 70 - Hofstra 56 -7
Sam Houston State 65 - Boise State 75 0.764 Sam Houston State 55 - Boise State 86 21
Samford 77 - Alabama AM 60 0.879 Samford 76 - Alabama AM 78 19
San Francisco 71 - Rhode Island 74 0.58 San Francisco 71 - Rhode Island 84 10
Seattle 70 - Air Force 71 0.505 Seattle 63 - Air Force 45 -19
South Alabama 70 - Jacksonville State 65 0.647 South Alabama 73 - Jacksonville State 77 9
South Florida 67 - Virginia Tech 76 0.752 South Florida 58 - Virginia Tech 76 9
Texas AM 81 - New Orleans 58 0.936 Texas AM 82 - New Orleans 53 -6
Texas Christian 72 - Liberty 66 0.672 Texas Christian 56 - Liberty 52 2
Tulane 73 - Lipscomb 74 0.522 Tulane 68 - Lipscomb 66 -3
Tulsa 72 - South Carolina 76 0.588 Tulsa 58 - South Carolina 69 7
UC Santa Barbara 87 - Unranked 52 UC Santa Barbara 92 - Unranked 55
Unranked 51 - New Mexico State 89 Unranked 77 - New Mexico State 83


Number of DI Games: 223
Number Correct: 174 = 78%
Expected Number Correct: 171.058 = 76.7%
Average Error: 10.01
Average Signed Error: 0.47

Note: From this week forward, the home court advantage was set to 2.

GAMES OF 11-30

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 76 - Stanford 70 0.647 Alabama 64 - Stanford 82 24
Appalachian State 72 - Bowling Green 71 0.553 Appalachian State 76 - Bowling Green 78 3
Cal State Northridge 65 - Seattle 78 0.854 Cal State Northridge 76 - Seattle 65 -24
California 76 - Nicholls State 66 0.74 California 60 - Nicholls State 49 -1
Campbell 84 - Unranked 56 Campbell 85 - Unranked 51
Central Florida 74 - Auburn 75 0.534 Central Florida 63 - Auburn 55 -9
Davidson 66 - Texas 76 0.734 Davidson 76 - Texas 78 -8
Duquesne 74 - Arkansas Little Rock 68 0.663 Duquesne 66 - Arkansas Little Rock 76 16
Hofstra 78 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.867 Hofstra 73 - Fairleigh Dickinson 58 -1
Jacksonville State 86 - Unranked 55 Jacksonville State 85 - Unranked 66
Kansas State 78 - UMKC 60 0.912 Kansas State 62 - UMKC 58 14
Louisiana State 86 - Southeast Louisiana 58 0.995 Louisiana State 96 - Southeast Louisiana 43 -25
Mercer 75 - Georgia State 73 0.573 Mercer 86 - Georgia State 69 -15
Minnesota 82 - Loyola Marymount 64 0.941 Minnesota 67 - Loyola Marymount 64 15
Mississippi State 74 - Texas State 66 0.712 Mississippi State 68 - Texas State 51 -9
Nevada 78 - Pacific 61 0.913 Nevada 70 - Pacific 58 5
Nevada Las Vegas 66 - North Carolina 84 0.874 Nevada Las Vegas 51 - North Carolina 78 9
Providence 76 - Indiana 74 0.538 Providence 58 - Indiana 79 23
Saint Johns 77 - Boston College 73 0.632 Saint Johns 97 - Boston College 93 0
Seton Hall 83 - Iona 64 0.917 Seton Hall 86 - Iona 64 -3
Southern Methodist 83 - Texas AM CC 59 0.95 Southern Methodist 91 - Texas AM CC 54 -13
Stetson 84 - Unranked 58 Stetson 61 - Unranked 64
Tennessee Tech 66 - Chattanooga 72 0.664 Tennessee Tech 54 - Chattanooga 62 2
Western Carolina 89 - Unranked 58 Western Carolina 96 - Unranked 58
Wyoming 73 - Texas Southern 68 0.654 Wyoming 74 - Texas Southern 76 7
Xavier 84 - Eastern Kentucky 62 0.925 Xavier 99 - Eastern Kentucky 96 19


GAMES OF 12-1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 92 - Unranked 50 Abilene Christian 81 - Unranked 51
Alabama 81 - Nevada Las Vegas 66 0.843 Alabama 86 - Nevada Las Vegas 74 3
Bradley 91 - Unranked 49 Bradley 105 - Unranked 32
Brigham Young 74 - Southern California 75 0.552 Brigham Young 53 - Southern California 79 25
Charleston Southern 70 - North Carolina AT 65 0.619 Charleston Southern 63 - North Carolina AT 70 12
Creighton 85 - Omaha 61 0.953 Creighton 94 - Omaha 67 -3
Dayton 83 - Eastern Illinois 56 0.965 Dayton 66 - Eastern Illinois 63 24
Duke 76 - Michigan State 77 0.504 Duke 69 - Michigan State 75 5
East Carolina 91 - Unranked 55 East Carolina 91 - Unranked 62
Florida International 76 - Central Michigan 72 0.628 Florida International 96 - Central Michigan 76 -16
George Washington 77 - Hampton 71 0.655 George Washington 78 - Hampton 82 10
Georgetown 80 - Navy 63 0.93 Georgetown 71 - Navy 78 24
Grand Canyon 88 - Mississippi Valley State 54 0.992 Grand Canyon 88 - Mississippi Valley State 49 -5
Illinois Chicago 73 - Valparaiso 68 0.661 Illinois Chicago 66 - Valparaiso 50 -11
Indiana 75 - Texas 71 0.605 Indiana 44 - Texas 66 26
Kansas 77 - Kentucky 74 0.589 Kansas 65 - Kentucky 62 0
Louisville 81 - Western Kentucky 68 0.885 Louisville 75 - Western Kentucky 54 -8
Marquette 78 - Oklahoma State 71 0.726 Marquette 62 - Oklahoma State 70 15
Morgan State 80 - Unranked 60 Morgan State 102 - Unranked 94
Nebraska 82 - South Dakota 62 0.929 Nebraska 76 - South Dakota 69 13
New Hampshire 73 - Bryant 68 0.644 New Hampshire 85 - Bryant 93 13
New Mexico State 90 - Unranked 51 New Mexico State 92 - Unranked 54
Providence 76 - Davidson 72 0.609 Providence 63 - Davidson 62 3
Purdue 90 - Oakland 59 0.953 Purdue 93 - Oakland 50 -12
Saint Marys 80 - Nicholls State 59 0.924 Saint Marys 73 - Nicholls State 50 -2
Saint Peters 69 - Stony Brook 64 0.649 Saint Peters 82 - Stony Brook 68 -9
Samford 84 - Unranked 62 Samford 97 - Unranked 73
South Alabama 87 - Unranked 57 South Alabama 86 - Unranked 47
Stanford 73 - North Carolina 74 0.527 Stanford 63 - North Carolina 67 3
Stephen F Austin 90 - Unranked 53 Stephen F Austin 102 - Unranked 57
Toledo 79 - Cleveland State 58 0.924 Toledo 70 - Cleveland State 61 12
UNC Greensboro 76 - Winthrop 68 0.756 UNC Greensboro 67 - Winthrop 75 16
Villanova 80 - Hartford 59 0.958 Villanova 87 - Hartford 53 -13
Virginia 79 - Saint Francis Penn 60 0.894 Virginia 76 - Saint Francis Penn 51 -6
Virginia Military Institute 71 - Longwood 65 0.675 Virginia Military Institute 84 - Longwood 71 -7
Washington 76 - UC Riverside 59 0.873 Washington 42 - UC Riverside 57 32
Wisconsin 87 - Green Bay 63 0.956 Wisconsin 82 - Green Bay 42 -16

GAMES OF 12-2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 75 - Providence 76 0.526 Alabama 88 - Providence 71 -18
Alabama Birmingham 81 - Kennesaw St 54 0.941 Alabama Birmingham 73 - Kennesaw St 48 2
Arkansas 81 - Texas Arlington 62 0.911 Arkansas 72 - Texas Arlington 60 7
Baylor 80 - Illinois 73 0.642 Baylor 82 - Illinois 69 -6
Brigham Young 79 - Saint Johns 78 0.513 Brigham Young 74 - Saint Johns 68 -5
Cal Baptist 81 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.934 Cal Baptist 80 - Southeast Louisiana 81 22
Central Michigan 89 - Unranked 60 Central Michigan 73 - Unranked 92
Cincinnati 83 - Lipscomb 62 0.94 Cincinnati 67 - Lipscomb 55 9
Clemson 91 - South Carolina State 49 0.968 Clemson 75 - South Carolina State 38 5
Dixie State 64 - North Dakota 80 0.787 Dixie State 74 - North Dakota 73 -17
Fairfield 65 - Hartford 70 0.645 Fairfield 61 - Hartford 66 0
Florida 76 - Army 63 0.812 Florida 76 - Army 69 6
Florida State 88 - North Florida 58 0.985 Florida State 86 - North Florida 58 2
Furman 95 - Unranked 51 Furman 89 - Unranked 49
Georgia 95 - Unranked 55 Georgia 84 - Unranked 62
Gonzaga 80 - West Virginia 74 0.683 Gonzaga 87 - West Virginia 82 1
Illinois State 93 - Unranked 55 Illinois State 177 - Unranked 108
Iowa State 77 - South Dakota State 72 0.626 Iowa State 68 - South Dakota State 71 8
Jacksonville 75 - Presbyterian 62 0.842 Jacksonville 78 - Presbyterian 65 0
Kent State 92 - Unranked 54 Kent State 90 - Unranked 41
Mcneese State 82 - Unranked 65 Mcneese State 140 - Unranked 37
Memphis 83 - Arkansas State 58 0.957 Memphis 83 - Arkansas State 54 -4
Michigan 81 - Ball State 64 0.869 Michigan 84 - Ball State 65 -2
Middle Tennessee 61 - Murray State 74 0.868 Middle Tennessee 78 - Murray State 61 -30
Nevada 79 - San Francisco 64 0.889 Nevada 60 - San Francisco 85 40
Nevada Las Vegas 67 - Davidson 79 0.795 Nevada Las Vegas 73 - Davidson 77 -8
New Orleans 70 - UL Lafayette 77 0.743 New Orleans 63 - UL Lafayette 66 -4
Norfolk State 69 - Old Dominion 68 0.523 Norfolk State 66 - Old Dominion 80 15
North Carolina 74 - Texas 72 0.546 North Carolina 67 - Texas 69 4
Northern Illinois 74 - SIU Edwardsville 63 0.802 Northern Illinois 53 - SIU Edwardsville 73 31
Northwestern 81 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54 0.954 Northwestern 92 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 49 -16
Ohio State 86 - Morehead State 57 0.989 Ohio State 77 - Morehead State 44 -4
Oregon 76 - Missouri 68 0.705 Oregon 75 - Missouri 83 16
Pacific 75 - Montana State 69 0.673 Pacific 74 - Montana State 70 2
Penn State 77 - Virginia Commonwealth 72 0.669 Penn State 72 - Virginia Commonwealth 69 2
Quinnipiac 76 - Drexel 68 0.731 Quinnipiac 48 - Drexel 66 26
Rhode Island 73 - Seton Hall 76 0.608 Rhode Island 76 - Seton Hall 63 -16
San Diego State 96 - Unranked 44 San Diego State 83 - Unranked 41
Santa Clara 72 - Cal State Bakersfield 59 0.831 Santa Clara 53 - Cal State Bakersfield 47 7
SE Missouri State 66 - Southern Illinois 71 0.629 SE Missouri State 79 - Southern Illinois 87 3
South Carolina Upstate 67 - Eastern Kentucky 78 0.804 South Carolina Upstate 78 - Eastern Kentucky 95 6
South Florida 69 - Florida Gulf Coast 65 0.642 South Florida 76 - Florida Gulf Coast 57 -15
Southern Methodist 90 - Houston Baptist 61 0.989 Southern Methodist 102 - Houston Baptist 75 2
Southern Miss 81 - Unranked 58 Southern Miss 80 - Unranked 53
Stanford 72 - Indiana 75 0.586 Stanford 63 - Indiana 79 13
Tennessee Martin 73 - Evansville 71 0.566 Tennessee Martin 93 - Evansville 87 -4
Texas AM 69 - Tarleton State 66 0.638 Texas AM 73 - Tarleton State 66 -4
Texas Pan American 75 - Texas AM CC 62 0.841 Texas Pan American 62 - Texas AM CC 59 10
UC Irvine 88 - Unranked 54 UC Irvine 104 - Unranked 54
UNC Greensboro 76 - Duquesne 65 0.808 UNC Greensboro 68 - Duquesne 81 24
Utah Valley 85 - Unranked 56 Utah Valley 79 - Unranked 71
Washington State 69 - Oregon State 72 0.594 Washington State 59 - Oregon State 55 -7
Wichita State 87 - Oral Roberts 60 0.954 Wichita State 85 - Oral Roberts 80 22
Wyoming 77 - Incarnate Word 59 0.94 Wyoming 94 - Incarnate Word 83 7
Xavier 86 - Tennessee Tech 58 0.963 Xavier 79 - Tennessee Tech 48 -3

GAMES OF 12-3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas Little Rock 73 - Winthrop 72 0.533 Arkansas Little Rock 75 - Winthrop 80 6
Boston College 68 - Florida 77 0.738 Boston College 70 - Florida 90 11
Bowling Green 93 - Unranked 56 Bowling Green 88 - Unranked 67
California 73 - Arizona State 75 0.564 California 62 - Arizona State 70 6
Coastal Carolina 89 - Unranked 58 Coastal Carolina 113 - Unranked 56
Drake 80 - Omaha 64 0.909 Drake 87 - Omaha 66 -5
Drexel 68 - Quinnipiac 76 0.731 Drexel 70 - Quinnipiac 58 -20
Eastern Illinois 78 - Chicago State 53 0.953 Eastern Illinois 78 - Chicago State 56 3
Florida Atlantic 83 - Unranked 56 Florida Atlantic 128 - Unranked 64
Grambling State 81 - Unranked 58 Grambling State 68 - Unranked 59
Iowa 95 - Western Illinois 57 0.978 Iowa 99 - Western Illinois 58 -3
Kansas 103 - Unranked 49 Kansas 89 - Unranked 54
Liberty 80 - Saint Francis Penn 65 0.856 Liberty 78 - Saint Francis Penn 62 -1
Louisiana Tech 76 - UL Monroe 59 0.9 Louisiana Tech 78 - UL Monroe 62 1
NC State 84 - UMass Lowell 68 0.874 NC State 90 - UMass Lowell 59 -15
Northern Kentucky 77 - Tennessee Tech 60 0.913 Northern Kentucky 74 - Tennessee Tech 65 8
Oklahoma 87 - Texas San Antonio 58 0.937 Oklahoma 105 - Texas San Antonio 66 -10
Pepperdine 97 - Unranked 59 Pepperdine 94 - Unranked 45
Rice 87 - Unranked 56 Rice 94 - Unranked 74
Sacramento State 71 - Idaho 58 0.788 Sacramento State 77 - Idaho 55 -9
Saint Marys 78 - Texas Southern 59 0.901 Saint Marys 82 - Texas Southern 70 7
Southern California 76 - Connecticut 74 0.589 Southern California 58 - Connecticut 61 5
Southern Utah 70 - Montana 72 0.563 Southern Utah 64 - Montana 63 -3
Syracuse 83 - Niagara 61 0.906 Syracuse 75 - Niagara 45 -8
Texas Christian 86 - Northwestern State 55 0.978 Texas Christian 74 - Northwestern State 68 25
The Citadel 73 - North Carolina AT 72 0.527 The Citadel 78 - North Carolina AT 70 -7
UCLA 81 - Seattle 65 0.882 UCLA 78 - Seattle 52 -10
Utah 74 - Washington 67 0.667 Utah 76 - Washington 62 -7
Virginia Tech 87 - Virginia Military Institute 60 0.99 Virginia Tech 64 - Virginia Military Institute 57 20
Western Carolina 90 - Unranked 58 Western Carolina 91 - Unranked 84
Wright State 74 - Marshall 69 0.65 Wright State 64 - Marshall 80 21

GAMES OF 12-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas State 83 - Unranked 59 Arkansas State 115 - Unranked 49
Auburn 82 - South Alabama 64 0.934 Auburn 90 - South Alabama 81 9
Austin Peay 92 - Unranked 55 Austin Peay 102 - Unranked 38
Boise State 95 - Unranked 52 Boise State 86 - Unranked 49
Bradley 72 - South Dakota State 67 0.626 Bradley 84 - South Dakota State 88 9
Cal Baptist 81 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.934 Cal Baptist 83 - Southeast Louisiana 66 4
Cal Poly 65 - San Francisco 78 0.811 Cal Poly 60 - San Francisco 88 15
Charlotte 70 - Georgia State 75 0.644 Charlotte 65 - Georgia State 76 6
Creighton 90 - Kennesaw St 52 0.982 Creighton 93 - Kennesaw St 58 3
Duke 102 - Bellarmine 49 0.988 Duke 76 - Bellarmine 54 31
Eastern Michigan 70 - Toledo 72 0.559 Eastern Michigan 74 - Toledo 91 15
Florida International 72 - Jacksonville State 68 0.596 Florida International 74 - Jacksonville State 70 0
Georgia 78 - Jacksonville 66 0.828 Georgia 98 - Jacksonville 65 -21
Hartford 76 - Central Connecticut State 59 0.925 Hartford 80 - Central Connecticut State 65 2
Loyola Marymount 77 - Long Beach State 64 0.864 Loyola Marymount 85 - Long Beach State 61 -11
Marquette 77 - Wisconsin 72 0.675 Marquette 67 - Wisconsin 65 3
Maryland 79 - Saint Peters 58 0.951 Maryland 90 - Saint Peters 57 -12
Memphis 86 - Central Arkansas 61 0.931 Memphis 85 - Central Arkansas 68 8
Miami 81 - Stetson 59 0.928 Miami 82 - Stetson 60 0
Michigan State 93 - Detroit 57 0.982 Michigan State 83 - Detroit 76 29
Minnesota 87 - North Dakota 58 0.992 Minnesota 76 - North Dakota 67 20
Mississippi State 74 - North Texas 63 0.828 Mississippi State 69 - North Texas 63 5
Northern Iowa 92 - Unranked 56 Northern Iowa 98 - Unranked 53
Purdue 87 - Valparaiso 64 0.942 Purdue 68 - Valparaiso 61 16
Sam Houston State 84 - Unranked 60 Sam Houston State 117 - Unranked 42
Seton Hall 72 - Oregon 75 0.587 Seton Hall 70 - Oregon 83 10
Stephen F Austin 83 - Mcneese State 60 0.922 Stephen F Austin 86 - Mcneese State 76 13
Stony Brook 78 - Fairfield 60 0.88 Stony Brook 72 - Fairfield 69 15
Texas Pan American 87 - Unranked 58 Texas Pan American 91 - Unranked 68
Texas San Antonio 85 - Unranked 61 Texas San Antonio 91 - Unranked 62
Texas Tech 81 - Troy 53 0.952 Texas Tech 80 - Troy 46 -6
Tulsa 73 - Texas Arlington 67 0.691 Tulsa 79 - Texas Arlington 64 -9
UC Davis 87 - Unranked 60 UC Davis 95 - Unranked 62
Virginia 76 - Kent State 62 0.825 Virginia 71 - Kent State 64 7

GAMES OF 12-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 68 - Tarleton State 66 0.559 Abilene Christian 69 - Tarleton State 48 -19
Air Force 71 - Lamar 63 0.723 Air Force 59 - Lamar 44 -7
Arizona 80 - Eastern Washington 64 0.871 Arizona 70 - Eastern Washington 67 13
Arkansas 84 - Lipscomb 64 0.922 Arkansas 86 - Lipscomb 50 -16
Ball State 72 - Illinois Chicago 66 0.659 Ball State 68 - Illinois Chicago 66 4
Belmont 86 - Samford 59 0.998 Belmont 83 - Samford 96 40
Binghamton 71 - Marist 66 0.61 Binghamton 65 - Marist 68 8
Bryant 89 - Unranked 58 Bryant 138 - Unranked 83
Chattanooga 70 - Northern Kentucky 68 0.561 Chattanooga 79 - Northern Kentucky 72 -5
College of Charleston 67 - Furman 73 0.681 College of Charleston 57 - Furman 81 18
Dayton 79 - Southern Methodist 68 0.798 Dayton 64 - Southern Methodist 66 13
Delaware 88 - Unranked 57 Delaware 79 - Unranked 76
Dixie State 76 - Unranked 72 Dixie State 86 - Unranked 48
East Carolina 74 - Radford 63 0.817 East Carolina 63 - Radford 50 -2
Florida Gulf Coast 85 - Unranked 53 Florida Gulf Coast 91 - Unranked 74
George Washington 75 - Coppin State 67 0.695 George Washington 85 - Coppin State 69 -8
Green Bay 74 - Eastern Illinois 71 0.612 Green Bay 91 - Eastern Illinois 93 5
High Point 71 - North Florida 70 0.529 High Point 85 - North Florida 74 -10
Hofstra 77 - Iona 66 0.815 Hofstra 74 - Iona 82 19
Houston 81 - South Carolina 64 0.885 Houston 77 - South Carolina 67 7
Houston Baptist 70 - Rice 75 0.673 Houston Baptist 64 - Rice 86 17
Kansas 86 - North Dakota State 59 0.976 Kansas 65 - North Dakota State 61 23
Kansas State 76 - Nevada Las Vegas 64 0.818 Kansas State 58 - Nevada Las Vegas 68 22
Liberty 95 - Unranked 50 Liberty 86 - Unranked 64
Loyola Ill 91 - Unranked 50 Loyola Ill 76 - Unranked 48
Mercer 91 - Unranked 48 Mercer 88 - Unranked 62
Murray State 76 - Illinois State 68 0.726 Murray State 76 - Illinois State 65 -3
Northwestern 84 - Chicago State 49 0.995 Northwestern 111 - Chicago State 66 -10
Oklahoma State 84 - Oakland 59 0.933 Oklahoma State 84 - Oakland 71 12
Pittsburgh 72 - Northern Illinois 65 0.712 Pittsburgh 89 - Northern Illinois 59 -23
Portland 71 - Portland State 77 0.684 Portland 86 - Portland State 73 -19
Providence 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 62 0.943 Providence 79 - Fairleigh Dickinson 67 11
Robert Morris 86 - Unranked 53 Robert Morris 75 - Unranked 57
Sacramento State 71 - Idaho 58 0.788 Sacramento State 73 - Idaho 57 -3
Saint Louis 85 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 51 0.977 Saint Louis 107 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54 -19
SIU Edwardsville 70 - Omaha 71 0.525 SIU Edwardsville 63 - Omaha 65 1
South Carolina Upstate 64 - Georgia Southern 74 0.765 South Carolina Upstate 69 - Georgia Southern 72 -7
Southern Utah 70 - Montana 72 0.563 Southern Utah 75 - Montana 74 -3
Syracuse 80 - Rider 65 0.835 Syracuse 87 - Rider 52 -20
Texas El Paso 85 - Unranked 55 Texas El Paso 84 - Unranked 65
Texas State 77 - Incarnate Word 54 0.96 Texas State 72 - Incarnate Word 64 15
The Citadel 86 - Unranked 64 The Citadel 100 - Unranked 58
UL Lafayette 93 - Unranked 60 UL Lafayette 84 - Unranked 73
UNC Asheville 75 - South Carolina State 64 0.844 UNC Asheville 77 - South Carolina State 56 -10
Utah State 72 - Brigham Young 77 0.619 Utah State 64 - Brigham Young 67 -2
Virginia Commonwealth 82 - Mt St Marys 58 0.96 Virginia Commonwealth 60 - Mt St Marys 42 6
Wright State 74 - Miami OH 65 0.716 Wright State 71 - Miami OH 47 -15

GAMES OF 12-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 74 - Troy 58 0.836 Alabama Birmingham 77 - Troy 55 -6
Appalachian State 86 - Unranked 54 Appalachian State 81 - Unranked 57
Arkansas Little Rock 82 - Central Arkansas 64 0.894 Arkansas Little Rock 86 - Central Arkansas 83 15
Army 73 - La Salle 63 0.811 Army 63 - La Salle 59 6
Bowling Green 75 - Buffalo 73 0.6 Bowling Green 86 - Buffalo 78 -6
Cincinnati 76 - Xavier 72 0.615 Cincinnati 69 - Xavier 77 12
Denver 68 - UC Riverside 69 0.528 Denver 63 - UC Riverside 83 19
Drake 94 - Unranked 53 Drake 97 - Unranked 53
Drexel 72 - Coppin State 68 0.612 Drexel 69 - Coppin State 54 -11
Florida 82 - Stetson 56 0.939 Florida 86 - Stetson 40 -20
Georgetown 72 - West Virginia 76 0.649 Georgetown 71 - West Virginia 80 5
Georgia Tech 70 - Kentucky 80 0.759 Georgia Tech 79 - Kentucky 62 -27
Howard 82 - Bellarmine 64 0.82 Howard 63 - Bellarmine 84 39
Long Beach State 68 - Seattle 72 0.589 Long Beach State 80 - Seattle 75 -9
Longwood 81 - Unranked 56 Longwood 64 - Unranked 67
Louisiana State 81 - Louisiana Tech 70 0.824 Louisiana State 86 - Louisiana Tech 55 -20
Marist 70 - Binghamton 67 0.594 Marist 64 - Binghamton 60 -1
Mercer 91 - Unranked 48 Mercer 96 - Unranked 85
Michigan 74 - Central Florida 67 0.695 Michigan 80 - Central Florida 58 -15
Michigan State 88 - Western Michigan 61 0.966 Michigan State 79 - Western Michigan 61 9
North Alabama 86 - Unranked 58 North Alabama 107 - Unranked 40
North Carolina AT 60 - Stanford 83 0.894 North Carolina AT 46 - Stanford 78 9
Northwestern State 67 - UL Monroe 70 0.573 Northwestern State 83 - UL Monroe 92 6
Notre Dame 85 - Detroit 61 0.944 Notre Dame 78 - Detroit 70 16
Ohio 78 - Cleveland State 60 0.86 Ohio 101 - Cleveland State 46 -37
Oregon State 83 - Wyoming 61 0.949 Oregon State 73 - Wyoming 76 25
Penn State 76 - Seton Hall 74 0.609 Penn State 92 - Seton Hall 98 8
Quinnipiac 74 - New Hampshire 66 0.699 Quinnipiac 64 - New Hampshire 58 2
Saint Johns 81 - Stony Brook 68 0.846 Saint Johns 89 - Stony Brook 66 -10
Sam Houston State 84 - Unranked 60 Sam Houston State 117 - Unranked 54
San Diego State 84 - Pepperdine 65 0.924 San Diego State 65 - Pepperdine 60 14
Southern Illinois 88 - Unranked 52 Southern Illinois 102 - Unranked 61
Stephen F Austin 90 - Unranked 53 Stephen F Austin 97 - Unranked 79
Texas 73 - Villanova 71 0.56 Texas 64 - Villanova 68 6
Texas AM 79 - Texas Pan American 61 0.888 Texas AM 81 - Texas Pan American 68 5
Texas Christian 71 - Oklahoma 69 0.571 Texas Christian 78 - Oklahoma 82 6
Texas Tech 84 - Grambling State 52 0.976 Texas Tech 81 - Grambling State 40 -9
UCLA 77 - California 67 0.793 UCLA 76 - California 56 -10
Valparaiso 90 - Unranked 56 Valparaiso 85 - Unranked 45
Western Carolina 75 - Tennessee Tech 66 0.74 Western Carolina 76 - Tennessee Tech 75 8
Western Illinois 69 - Central Michigan 81 0.788 Western Illinois 73 - Central Michigan 79 -6
Western Kentucky 96 - Mississippi Valley State 53 0.969 Western Kentucky 96 - Mississippi Valley State 69 16
Wichita State 77 - Missouri 68 0.726 Wichita State 62 - Missouri 72 19


Number of DI Games: 215
Number Correct: 163 = 75.8%
Expected Number Correct: 167.922 = 78.1%
Average Error: 11.17
Average Signed Error: 2.57

GAMES OF 12-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 81 - Northern Arizona 60 0.914 Arizona 96 - Northern Arizona 53 -22
Bradley 89 - Unranked 52 Bradley 95 - Unranked 62
Cal State Bakersfield 79 - Unranked 55 Cal State Bakersfield 94 - Unranked 43
Charlotte 73 - South Carolina State 59 0.907 Charlotte 78 - South Carolina State 40 -24
Coastal Carolina 72 - North Carolina Central 67 0.62 Coastal Carolina 78 - North Carolina Central 71 -2
East Carolina 73 - UNC Wilmington 66 0.698 East Carolina 88 - UNC Wilmington 78 -3
Eastern Kentucky 78 - Morehead State 65 0.856 Eastern Kentucky 71 - Morehead State 68 10
Hartford 73 - Fairfield 60 0.842 Hartford 67 - Fairfield 54 0
Middle Tennessee 64 - Chattanooga 71 0.696 Middle Tennessee 70 - Chattanooga 80 3
Nevada 94 - Unranked 51 Nevada 86 - Unranked 64
Norfolk State 70 - Hampton 71 0.505 Norfolk State 76 - Hampton 64 -13
North Florida 67 - Florida Atlantic 66 0.536 North Florida 77 - Florida Atlantic 79 3
Oregon 84 - Eastern Washington 65 0.927 Oregon 69 - Eastern Washington 52 2
Richmond 76 - Wofford 68 0.719 Richmond 77 - Wofford 72 3
SE Missouri State 70 - Lipscomb 72 0.597 SE Missouri State 82 - Lipscomb 77 -7
The Citadel 88 - Unranked 61 The Citadel 96 - Unranked 57
UC Santa Barbara 67 - Loyola Marymount 69 0.567 UC Santa Barbara 69 - Loyola Marymount 58 -13
UMBC 74 - George Washington 68 0.666 UMBC 92 - George Washington 81 -5
Western Michigan 87 - Unranked 58 Western Michigan 62 - Unranked 42

GAMES OF 12-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Belmont 74 - Tennessee State 67 0.686 Belmont 79 - Tennessee State 64 -8
Charleston Southern 79 - Unranked 59 Charleston Southern 94 - Unranked 59
Dayton 73 - Northern Kentucky 64 0.769 Dayton 66 - Northern Kentucky 60 3
Detroit 72 - Kent State 76 0.616 Detroit 66 - Kent State 80 10
Duke 74 - Illinois 73 0.51 Duke 68 - Illinois 83 16
Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Central Connecticut State 69 0.73 Fairleigh Dickinson 87 - Central Connecticut State 94 14
Georgetown 83 - Coppin State 61 0.945 Georgetown 80 - Coppin State 48 -10
Georgia 79 - Montana 65 0.837 Georgia 63 - Montana 50 1
Indiana State 88 - Unranked 55 Indiana State 80 - Unranked 66
Iona 80 - Morgan State 62 0.931 Iona 72 - Morgan State 83 29
Iowa 75 - North Carolina 77 0.566 Iowa 93 - North Carolina 80 -15
Jacksonville 67 - Campbell 66 0.535 Jacksonville 78 - Campbell 80 3
Kansas 79 - Creighton 75 0.612 Kansas 73 - Creighton 72 3
Kansas State 86 - Unranked 56 Kansas State 68 - Unranked 81
La Salle 83 - Unranked 57 La Salle 80 - Unranked 62
Longwood 69 - North Carolina AT 67 0.547 Longwood 77 - North Carolina AT 60 -15
Marquette 87 - Green Bay 62 0.953 Marquette 82 - Green Bay 68 11
Memphis 91 - Mississippi Valley State 53 0.983 Memphis 94 - Mississippi Valley State 57 1
Miami 72 - Purdue 78 0.652 Miami 58 - Purdue 54 -10
Minnesota 78 - Boston College 70 0.747 Minnesota 85 - Boston College 80 3
Mississippi State 77 - Jackson State 56 0.942 Mississippi State 82 - Jackson State 59 -2
Mt St Marys 68 - Saint Francis Penn 69 0.511 Mt St Marys 75 - Saint Francis Penn 57 -19
Murray State 71 - Austin Peay 74 0.565 Murray State 87 - Austin Peay 57 -33
Northern Illinois 62 - Ball State 74 0.817 Northern Illinois 70 - Ball State 79 -3
Notre Dame 70 - Ohio State 75 0.664 Notre Dame 85 - Ohio State 90 0
Oklahoma State 85 - Oral Roberts 68 0.903 Oklahoma State 83 - Oral Roberts 78 12
Portland State 83 - Unranked 63 Portland State 88 - Unranked 48
Rutgers 72 - Syracuse 73 0.522 Rutgers 79 - Syracuse 69 -11
Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - Bryant 75 0.665 Saint Francis Brooklyn 82 - Bryant 101 13
Saint Johns 82 - Rider 65 0.905 Saint Johns 82 - Rider 79 14
Saint Louis 89 - Central Arkansas 62 0.955 Saint Louis 88 - Central Arkansas 65 4
Saint Marys 75 - Texas El Paso 58 0.892 Saint Marys 73 - Texas El Paso 61 5
Seton Hall 86 - Wagner 58 0.951 Seton Hall 78 - Wagner 45 -5
South Alabama 87 - Unranked 60 South Alabama 80 - Unranked 67
South Florida 77 - Stetson 61 0.887 South Florida 73 - Stetson 62 5
Southern California 78 - UC Irvine 63 0.852 Southern California 91 - UC Irvine 56 -20
Tennessee 71 - Colorado 72 0.519 Tennessee 56 - Colorado 47 -10
UL Lafayette 90 - Unranked 60 UL Lafayette 90 - Unranked 75
UMBC 73 - Delaware 69 0.605 UMBC 76 - Delaware 61 -11
Unranked 62 - New Orleans 78 Unranked 57 - New Orleans 74
Utah 85 - Idaho State 56 0.966 Utah 75 - Idaho State 59 13
Utah State 90 - Unranked 56 Utah State 90 - Unranked 64
Virginia Military Institute 88 - Unranked 59 Virginia Military Institute 100 - Unranked 65
Virginia Tech 79 - Penn State 74 0.665 Virginia Tech 55 - Penn State 75 25
Weber State 83 - Unranked 60 Weber State 85 - Unranked 73

GAMES OF 12-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 92 - Unranked 52 Alabama Birmingham 89 - Unranked 64
Arizona 77 - Cal State Bakersfield 56 0.935 Arizona 85 - Cal State Bakersfield 60 -4
Arkansas 87 - Southern 57 0.964 Arkansas 79 - Southern 44 -5
Arkansas State 73 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 0.808 Arkansas State 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 75 11
Baylor 86 - Stephen F Austin 61 0.953 Baylor 83 - Stephen F Austin 52 -6
Bellarmine 62 - Chattanooga 72 0.877 Bellarmine 68 - Chattanooga 77 -1
Brigham Young 73 - Boise State 71 0.537 Brigham Young 70 - Boise State 74 6
Cal Poly 61 - Santa Clara 75 0.891 Cal Poly 69 - Santa Clara 76 -7
Campbell 69 - New Orleans 62 0.721 Campbell 79 - New Orleans 70 -2
Cincinnati 70 - Furman 72 0.573 Cincinnati 78 - Furman 73 -7
Clemson 70 - Maryland 72 0.564 Clemson 67 - Maryland 51 -18
College of Charleston 67 - Marshall 76 0.748 College of Charleston 72 - Marshall 84 3
Drake 94 - Unranked 54 Drake 90 - Unranked 66
Eastern Michigan 86 - Unranked 59 Eastern Michigan 95 - Unranked 35
Evansville 68 - Eastern Illinois 71 0.638 Evansville 68 - Eastern Illinois 65 -6
Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Central Connecticut State 69 0.73 Fairleigh Dickinson 79 - Central Connecticut State 71 -1
Florida State 75 - Indiana 72 0.591 Florida State 69 - Indiana 67 1
Hofstra 74 - Stony Brook 65 0.777 Hofstra 72 - Stony Brook 67 4
Jacksonville 84 - Unranked 59 Jacksonville 78 - Unranked 69
Lipscomb 74 - SE Missouri State 68 0.748 Lipscomb 80 - SE Missouri State 74 0
Louisiana Tech 76 - Southeast Louisiana 58 0.929 Louisiana Tech 78 - Southeast Louisiana 69 9
Loyola Ill 83 - Chicago State 49 0.998 Loyola Ill 88 - Chicago State 51 -3
Miami OH 73 - Western Illinois 61 0.809 Miami OH 67 - Western Illinois 57 2
Michigan 81 - Toledo 66 0.837 Michigan 91 - Toledo 71 -5
Missouri 78 - Liberty 67 0.781 Missouri 69 - Liberty 60 2
Morehead State 82 - Unranked 60 Morehead State 77 - Unranked 55
Nebraska 77 - Georgia Tech 76 0.519 Nebraska 64 - Georgia Tech 75 12
Northern Colorado 88 - Unranked 53 Northern Colorado 87 - Unranked 62
Northwestern 79 - Pittsburgh 73 0.657 Northwestern 70 - Pittsburgh 71 7
Oregon 88 - Florida AM 54 0.987 Oregon 87 - Florida AM 66 13
Pepperdine 78 - California 69 0.788 Pepperdine 74 - California 62 -3
Radford 82 - Unranked 57 Radford 98 - Unranked 50
Richmond 82 - Northern Iowa 67 0.875 Richmond 78 - Northern Iowa 68 5
Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - Bryant 75 0.665 Saint Francis Brooklyn 93 - Bryant 91 -8
San Jose State 85 - Unranked 65 San Jose State 87 - Unranked 79
Tarleton State 83 - Unranked 56 Tarleton State 84 - Unranked 43
Texas 81 - Texas State 57 0.941 Texas 74 - Texas State 53 3
Texas Christian 73 - Providence 68 0.662 Texas Christian 70 - Providence 79 14
Texas Tech 74 - Abilene Christian 66 0.732 Texas Tech 51 - Abilene Christian 44 1
The Citadel 88 - Unranked 61 The Citadel 102 - Unranked 51
Tulane 73 - Southern Miss 60 0.826 Tulane 58 - Southern Miss 38 -7
UCLA 82 - San Diego 63 0.93 UCLA 83 - San Diego 56 -8
UL Monroe 74 - Lamar 65 0.802 UL Monroe 60 - Lamar 63 12
UNC Wilmington 87 - Unranked 58 UNC Wilmington 116 - Unranked 66
Utah Valley 69 - Southern Utah 73 0.623 Utah Valley 71 - Southern Utah 81 6
Valparaiso 72 - SIU Edwardsville 66 0.641 Valparaiso 80 - SIU Edwardsville 58 -16
Virginia Commonwealth 82 - North Carolina AT 57 0.948 Virginia Commonwealth 95 - North Carolina AT 59 -11
Washington 70 - Seattle 66 0.615 Washington 73 - Seattle 41 -28
Washington State 78 - Idaho 54 0.964 Washington State 61 - Idaho 58 21
Wisconsin 73 - Rhode Island 71 0.564 Wisconsin 73 - Rhode Island 62 -9
Wyoming 81 - Denver 66 0.903 Wyoming 83 - Denver 61 -7
Xavier 77 - Oklahoma 75 0.557 Xavier 99 - Oklahoma 77 -20
Youngstown State 85 - Unranked 59 Youngstown State 72 - Unranked 52

GAMES OF 12-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 71 - San Diego State 76 0.655 Arizona State 68 - San Diego State 80 7
Buffalo 91 - Unranked 57 Buffalo 81 - Unranked 64
Cal Baptist 89 - Unranked 62 Cal Baptist 93 - Unranked 47
Coppin State 61 - UNC Greensboro 77 0.882 Coppin State 85 - UNC Greensboro 80 -21
East Carolina 76 - North Florida 63 0.893 East Carolina 73 - North Florida 67 7
Jacksonville 72 - New Orleans 63 0.776 Jacksonville 77 - New Orleans 70 2
Minnesota 82 - UMKC 56 0.998 Minnesota 90 - UMKC 61 -3
Mississippi 77 - Jackson State 58 0.868 Mississippi 80 - Jackson State 45 -16
Morehead State 82 - Unranked 60 Morehead State 81 - Unranked 55
North Alabama 69 - Troy 66 0.59 North Alabama 57 - Troy 62 8
North Dakota 68 - South Dakota 72 0.603 North Dakota 75 - South Dakota 71 -8
Northern Arizona 64 - UC Riverside 71 0.684 Northern Arizona 50 - UC Riverside 74 17
Ohio 93 - Unranked 55 Ohio 92 - Unranked 72
Oregon State 76 - Portland 63 0.845 Oregon State 86 - Portland 87 14
Sam Houston State 84 - Unranked 62 Sam Houston State 107 - Unranked 65
San Francisco 82 - Long Beach State 64 0.874 San Francisco 107 - Long Beach State 62 -27
South Dakota State 76 - North Dakota State 64 0.801 South Dakota State 77 - North Dakota State 75 10
Texas AM CC 64 - Texas Pan American 71 0.733 Texas AM CC 64 - Texas Pan American 68 -3
Unranked 58 - Campbell 81 Unranked 92 - Campbell 122
Western Illinois 78 - Unranked 65 Western Illinois 80 - Unranked 55
Western Kentucky 77 - Gardner Webb 66 0.745 Western Kentucky 86 - Gardner Webb 84 9

GAMES OF 12-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas State 82 - Unranked 61 Arkansas State 81 - Unranked 69
Canisius 70 - Marist 65 0.629 Canisius 81 - Marist 72 -4
Charlotte 66 - Appalachian State 68 0.585 Charlotte 57 - Appalachian State 61 2
College of Charleston 78 - South Carolina State 58 0.961 College of Charleston 90 - South Carolina State 63 -7
Creighton 81 - Nebraska 72 0.733 Creighton 98 - Nebraska 74 -15
Davidson 75 - Georgia Southern 67 0.755 Davidson 77 - Georgia Southern 45 -24
Delaware 74 - George Washington 70 0.612 Delaware 68 - George Washington 65 1
Eastern Washington 90 - Unranked 57 Eastern Washington 80 - Unranked 56
Fairfield 64 - Iona 77 0.822 Fairfield 42 - Iona 70 15
Georgetown 67 - Villanova 82 0.885 Georgetown 63 - Villanova 76 -2
Grand Canyon 65 - Nevada 73 0.698 Grand Canyon 87 - Nevada 77 -18
Hawaii 85 - Unranked 56 Hawaii 83 - Unranked 50
Houston Baptist 83 - Unranked 65 Houston Baptist 93 - Unranked 60
Iowa 82 - Iowa State 69 0.839 Iowa 105 - Iowa State 77 -15
Kansas 84 - Omaha 63 0.959 Kansas 95 - Omaha 50 -24
Kansas State 73 - Milwaukee 63 0.787 Kansas State 76 - Milwaukee 75 9
Manhattan 65 - Rider 66 0.502 Manhattan 64 - Rider 82 17
Massachusetts 70 - Northeastern 69 0.517 Massachusetts 94 - Northeastern 79 -14
Miami OH 83 - Unranked 57 Miami OH 79 - Unranked 64
North Dakota State 69 - South Dakota 66 0.613 North Dakota State 74 - South Dakota 67 -4
Northern Colorado 88 - Unranked 53 Northern Colorado 83 - Unranked 58
Saint Marys 85 - San Jose State 59 0.938 Saint Marys 96 - San Jose State 61 -9
Saint Peters 72 - Niagara 59 0.863 Saint Peters 70 - Niagara 54 -3
Seton Hall 81 - Saint Johns 74 0.722 Seton Hall 77 - Saint Johns 68 -2
South Dakota State 81 - North Dakota 63 0.891 South Dakota State 74 - North Dakota 62 6
Southern Illinois 73 - Murray State 68 0.618 Southern Illinois 70 - Murray State 66 1
Texas Arlington 87 - Unranked 56 Texas Arlington 91 - Unranked 66
Texas Southern 87 - Unranked 58 Texas Southern 103 - Unranked 60
UCLA 75 - Marquette 73 0.593 UCLA 69 - Marquette 60 -7
West Virginia 82 - North Texas 62 0.942 West Virginia 62 - North Texas 50 8

GAMES OF 12-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 93 - Unranked 50 Abilene Christian 83 - Unranked 46
Akron 92 - Unranked 52 Akron 97 - Unranked 49
Alabama 69 - Clemson 76 0.716 Alabama 56 - Clemson 64 1
Arizona 77 - Texas El Paso 62 0.867 Arizona 69 - Texas El Paso 61 7
Arkansas 89 - Central Arkansas 62 0.956 Arkansas 100 - Central Arkansas 75 2
Ball State 74 - Illinois State 68 0.683 Ball State 82 - Illinois State 66 -10
Boston College 71 - Syracuse 78 0.706 Boston College 63 - Syracuse 101 31
Brigham Young 75 - Utah 73 0.563 Brigham Young 82 - Utah 64 -16
Bryant 77 - Stony Brook 69 0.722 Bryant 81 - Stony Brook 72 -1
Cal Baptist 89 - Unranked 62 Cal Baptist 110 - Unranked 71
Cal State Bakersfield 68 - Idaho 56 0.855 Cal State Bakersfield 76 - Idaho 66 2
Canisius 70 - Marist 65 0.629 Canisius 52 - Marist 56 9
Central Michigan 71 - Valparaiso 72 0.516 Central Michigan 84 - Valparaiso 79 -6
Chattanooga 91 - Unranked 52 Chattanooga 81 - Unranked 63
Coastal Carolina 88 - Unranked 59 Coastal Carolina 103 - Unranked 45
Colorado State 92 - Unranked 56 Colorado State 89 - Unranked 77
Denver 68 - Dixie State 76 0.834 Denver 70 - Dixie State 73 -5
Drexel 70 - La Salle 63 0.752 Drexel 48 - La Salle 58 17
East Tennessee State 68 - Alabama Birmingham 67 0.523 East Tennessee State 61 - Alabama Birmingham 65 5
Eastern Illinois 77 - Western Illinois 62 0.886 Eastern Illinois 92 - Western Illinois 88 11
Eastern Kentucky 92 - Unranked 58 Eastern Kentucky 81 - Unranked 60
Fairfield 64 - Iona 77 0.822 Fairfield 67 - Iona 52 -28
Florida Atlantic 81 - Unranked 57 Florida Atlantic 112 - Unranked 49
Florida State 73 - Florida 74 0.509 Florida State 83 - Florida 71 -13
Furman 96 - Unranked 50 Furman 86 - Unranked 61
Georgia 82 - Samford 68 0.791 Georgia 79 - Samford 75 10
IUPUI 67 - Tennessee State 75 0.691 IUPUI 69 - Tennessee State 66 -11
Kennesaw St 77 - Unranked 61 Kennesaw St 72 - Unranked 62
Kentucky 73 - Notre Dame 70 0.579 Kentucky 63 - Notre Dame 64 4
Liberty 94 - Unranked 52 Liberty 73 - Unranked 26
Lipscomb 69 - Belmont 73 0.621 Lipscomb 71 - Belmont 81 6
Loyola Marymount 71 - UC Santa Barbara 65 0.693 Loyola Marymount 81 - UC Santa Barbara 76 1
Manhattan 65 - Rider 66 0.502 Manhattan 87 - Rider 77 -11
Mcneese State 80 - Unranked 64 Mcneese State 96 - Unranked 53
Memphis 75 - Auburn 73 0.558 Memphis 71 - Auburn 74 5
Miami 80 - Florida Gulf Coast 61 0.942 Miami 62 - Florida Gulf Coast 66 23
Middle Tennessee 85 - Unranked 55 Middle Tennessee 76 - Unranked 57
Mississippi 78 - UNC Wilmington 65 0.747 Mississippi 78 - UNC Wilmington 58 -7
Mississippi State 69 - Dayton 68 0.505 Mississippi State 82 - Dayton 85 4
Missouri 76 - Illinois 71 0.636 Missouri 81 - Illinois 78 2
Montana 86 - Unranked 57 Montana 102 - Unranked 42
North Carolina 85 - North Carolina Central 58 0.986 North Carolina 73 - North Carolina Central 67 21
North Carolina AT 68 - Western Carolina 76 0.672 North Carolina AT 98 - Western Carolina 104 -2
North Dakota State 71 - North Dakota 64 0.692 North Dakota State 53 - North Dakota 52 6
North Florida 66 - Florida International 77 0.826 North Florida 80 - Florida International 77 -14
Northwestern State 84 - Unranked 66 Northwestern State 77 - Unranked 44
Oklahoma 88 - Florida AM 56 0.993 Oklahoma 85 - Florida AM 54 1
Oral Roberts 91 - Unranked 62 Oral Roberts 111 - Unranked 58
Pepperdine 82 - Cal State Northridge 70 0.839 Pepperdine 84 - Cal State Northridge 89 17
Pittsburgh 77 - Gardner Webb 68 0.689 Pittsburgh 67 - Gardner Webb 50 -8
Purdue 81 - Indiana State 64 0.851 Purdue 80 - Indiana State 68 5
Saint Peters 72 - Niagara 59 0.863 Saint Peters 53 - Niagara 49 9
South Carolina Upstate 62 - Winthrop 81 0.95 South Carolina Upstate 77 - Winthrop 95 -1
South Dakota State 80 - South Dakota 65 0.869 South Dakota State 78 - South Dakota 91 28
South Florida 67 - Wofford 72 0.656 South Florida 58 - Wofford 56 -7
Southern Miss 64 - South Alabama 70 0.679 Southern Miss 75 - South Alabama 76 -5
Tennessee 71 - Cincinnati 68 0.586 Tennessee 65 - Cincinnati 56 -6
Texas Christian 71 - Texas AM 69 0.578 Texas Christian 73 - Texas AM 55 -16
Texas State 86 - Unranked 55 Texas State 58 - Unranked 61
Texas Tech 83 - Texas AM CC 52 0.974 Texas Tech 77 - Texas AM CC 57 11
Toledo 79 - UMKC 59 0.932 Toledo 64 - UMKC 57 13
Tulane 79 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 60 0.949 Tulane 67 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 8
UL Lafayette 70 - Louisiana Tech 75 0.651 UL Lafayette 61 - Louisiana Tech 56 -10
UL Monroe 68 - Stephen F Austin 72 0.627 UL Monroe 66 - Stephen F Austin 55 -15
UNC Asheville 70 - High Point 71 0.512 UNC Asheville 80 - High Point 67 -14
Utah Valley 70 - Wyoming 74 0.65 Utah Valley 88 - Wyoming 93 1
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Old Dominion 67 0.763 Virginia Commonwealth 77 - Old Dominion 54 -16
Washington 63 - Oregon 81 0.9 Washington 71 - Oregon 74 -15
Western Michigan 74 - Detroit 71 0.584 Western Michigan 57 - Detroit 67 13
Wichita State 73 - Oklahoma State 74 0.522 Wichita State 64 - Oklahoma State 67 2

GAMES OF 12-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Binghamton 64 - Youngstown State 72 0.745 Binghamton 65 - Youngstown State 79 6
Boise State 81 - Weber State 60 0.917 Boise State 70 - Weber State 59 10
Bowling Green 74 - Wright State 71 0.571 Bowling Green 67 - Wright State 85 21
Cal Poly 73 - San Jose State 74 0.528 Cal Poly 75 - San Jose State 71 -5
Cal State Fullerton 85 - Unranked 60 Cal State Fullerton 94 - Unranked 70
California 66 - San Francisco 74 0.719 California 72 - San Francisco 70 -10
Coppin State 63 - UMBC 76 0.807 Coppin State 49 - UMBC 66 4
Drake 75 - Air Force 61 0.822 Drake 81 - Air Force 53 -14
Georgetown 76 - Saint Johns 77 0.542 Georgetown 97 - Saint Johns 94 -4
Georgia Southern 63 - Mercer 74 0.772 Georgia Southern 75 - Mercer 77 -9
Grand Canyon 69 - Arizona State 78 0.788 Grand Canyon 70 - Arizona State 71 -8
Illinois Chicago 64 - Loyola Ill 69 0.615 Illinois Chicago 66 - Loyola Ill 77 6
Indiana 86 - North Alabama 58 0.948 Indiana 87 - North Alabama 52 -7
Iowa 87 - Northern Illinois 57 0.994 Iowa 106 - Northern Illinois 53 -23
Kent State 74 - Northern Kentucky 71 0.566 Kent State 92 - Northern Kentucky 73 -16
Marshall 76 - Ohio 71 0.592 Marshall 81 - Ohio 67 -9
Michigan 81 - Penn State 74 0.707 Michigan 62 - Penn State 58 3
Michigan State 88 - Oakland 59 0.955 Michigan State 109 - Oakland 91 11
Montana State 91 - Unranked 59 Montana State 114 - Unranked 74
Northeastern 71 - Massachusetts 68 0.573 Northeastern 78 - Massachusetts 75 0
Ohio State 86 - Cleveland State 51 0.953 Ohio State 67 - Cleveland State 61 29
Rice 73 - New Mexico 70 0.587 Rice 61 - New Mexico 72 14
Seattle 85 - Unranked 57 Seattle 89 - Unranked 40
South Carolina State 62 - Jacksonville 73 0.822 South Carolina State 58 - Jacksonville 60 -9
South Carolina Upstate 62 - Winthrop 81 0.95 South Carolina Upstate 77 - Winthrop 107 11
Tennessee Tech 63 - Jacksonville State 69 0.711 Tennessee Tech 67 - Jacksonville State 73 0
Troy 80 - Unranked 57 Troy 61 - Unranked 44
UNC Asheville 70 - High Point 71 0.512 UNC Asheville 90 - High Point 84 -7
UNC Greensboro 73 - Norfolk State 64 0.771 UNC Greensboro 64 - Norfolk State 47 -8
Vanderbilt 91 - Mississippi Valley State 59 0.999 Vanderbilt 84 - Mississippi Valley State 41 -11
Virginia Military Institute 74 - Hampton 73 0.541 Virginia Military Institute 79 - Hampton 64 -14
Washington State 80 - Portland State 60 0.909 Washington State 69 - Portland State 60 11
West Virginia 79 - Richmond 71 0.754 West Virginia 87 - Richmond 71 -8
Western Kentucky 72 - Rhode Island 77 0.643 Western Kentucky 68 - Rhode Island 65 -8
Western Michigan 74 - Milwaukee 65 0.759 Western Michigan 63 - Milwaukee 71 17


Number of DI Games: 209
Number Correct: 151 = 72.2%
Expected Number Correct: 156.143 = 74.7%
Average Error: 9.4
Average Signed Error: -0.9

GAMES OF 12-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Austin Peay 88 - Unranked 59 Austin Peay 82 - Unranked 68
Central Michigan 89 - Unranked 61 Central Michigan 91 - Unranked 39
Colorado 76 - Northern Colorado 65 0.784 Colorado 81 - Northern Colorado 45 -25
Colorado State 82 - Northern Arizona 61 0.892 Colorado State 91 - Northern Arizona 52 -18
Creighton 78 - Marquette 71 0.712 Creighton 84 - Marquette 89 12
George Washington 76 - William and Mary 75 0.504 George Washington 84 - William and Mary 85 2
Louisiana State 88 - Sam Houston State 59 0.965 Louisiana State 88 - Sam Houston State 66 7
Maryland 76 - Rutgers 70 0.693 Maryland 60 - Rutgers 74 20
Mcneese State 80 - Unranked 68 Mcneese State 110 - Unranked 64
Mississippi 84 - Central Arkansas 61 0.948 Mississippi 68 - Central Arkansas 54 9
Morehead State 65 - Eastern Kentucky 75 0.769 Morehead State 75 - Eastern Kentucky 62 -23
Presbyterian 77 - Unranked 63 Presbyterian 85 - Unranked 46
Radford 64 - Longwood 65 0.528 Radford 67 - Longwood 66 -2
San Diego 64 - Nevada 75 0.775 San Diego 72 - Nevada 79 -4
Texas Pan American 85 - Unranked 59 Texas Pan American 89 - Unranked 51
Youngstown State 88 - Unranked 58 Youngstown State 80 - Unranked 66

GAMES OF 12-15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 71 - Saint Bonaventure 67 0.604 Akron 74 - Saint Bonaventure 81 11
Alabama 77 - Furman 73 0.602 Alabama 83 - Furman 80 1
Auburn 81 - Texas Southern 65 0.894 Auburn 80 - Texas Southern 63 -1
Austin Peay 76 - Florida AM 66 0.741 Austin Peay 70 - Florida AM 76 16
Cal State Northridge 68 - Stanford 77 0.73 Cal State Northridge 71 - Stanford 82 2
Central Connecticut State 70 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 75 0.676 Central Connecticut State 86 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 91 0
Davidson 76 - Charlotte 59 0.876 Davidson 52 - Charlotte 63 28
East Tennessee State 71 - Gardner Webb 63 0.718 East Tennessee State 65 - Gardner Webb 60 3
Evansville 72 - SE Missouri State 69 0.624 Evansville 66 - SE Missouri State 63 0
Florida State 84 - Georgia Tech 70 0.857 Florida State 74 - Georgia Tech 61 1
Georgia Southern 85 - Unranked 56 Georgia Southern 92 - Unranked 27
Illinois 79 - Minnesota 72 0.674 Illinois 92 - Minnesota 65 -20
Illinois State 81 - Chicago State 58 0.945 Illinois State 91 - Chicago State 62 -6
Iowa State 74 - Kansas State 69 0.669 Iowa State 65 - Kansas State 74 14
Lamar 66 - Southern Miss 60 0.672 Lamar 63 - Southern Miss 66 9
Liberty 86 - South Carolina State 52 0.974 Liberty 82 - South Carolina State 52 4
Lipscomb 85 - Unranked 59 Lipscomb 61 - Unranked 45
Louisiana Tech 75 - Jackson State 60 0.916 Louisiana Tech 85 - Jackson State 58 -12
Mcneese State 80 - Unranked 68 Mcneese State 114 - Unranked 50
Miami OH 69 - Buffalo 70 0.535 Miami OH 62 - Buffalo 90 27
Monmouth 71 - Hofstra 70 0.507 Monmouth 88 - Hofstra 96 9
Murray State 89 - Unranked 54 Murray State 90 - Unranked 49
New Mexico 90 - Unranked 53 New Mexico 104 - Unranked 65
North Texas 79 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 0.963 North Texas 81 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 -2
Northwestern 93 - Unranked 55 Northwestern 100 - Unranked 48
Oral Roberts 92 - Unranked 61 Oral Roberts 96 - Unranked 65
Portland 87 - Unranked 62 Portland 88 - Unranked 74
Radford 64 - Longwood 65 0.528 Radford 62 - Longwood 53 -10
Rice 80 - Houston Baptist 64 0.925 Rice 90 - Houston Baptist 79 5
Saint Louis 82 - Indiana State 66 0.89 Saint Louis 78 - Indiana State 59 -3
Saint Marys 76 - Eastern Washington 62 0.877 Saint Marys 80 - Eastern Washington 75 9
Santa Clara 85 - Unranked 52 Santa Clara 88 - Unranked 65
Stetson 65 - Florida Atlantic 71 0.672 Stetson 78 - Florida Atlantic 69 -15
Stony Brook 83 - Unranked 60 Stony Brook 83 - Unranked 39
Tennessee 81 - Appalachian State 57 0.962 Tennessee 79 - Appalachian State 38 -17
Tennessee Martin 90 - Unranked 64 Tennessee Martin 95 - Unranked 60
Texas AM 78 - Southeast Louisiana 58 0.913 Texas AM 69 - Southeast Louisiana 52 3
Texas State 73 - Texas AM CC 60 0.894 Texas State 51 - Texas AM CC 46 8
Tulsa 70 - Wichita State 74 0.624 Tulsa 65 - Wichita State 69 0
UL Lafayette 78 - New Orleans 61 0.923 UL Lafayette 73 - New Orleans 63 7
UNC Greensboro 78 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.89 UNC Greensboro 65 - South Carolina Upstate 57 9
Utah 81 - Utah Valley 64 0.886 Utah 75 - Utah Valley 67 9
Virginia Commonwealth 84 - Western Carolina 65 0.913 Virginia Commonwealth 93 - Western Carolina 68 -6
Virginia Military Institute 89 - Unranked 57 Virginia Military Institute 106 - Unranked 72
Virginia Tech 66 - Clemson 74 0.703 Virginia Tech 66 - Clemson 60 -14
Wisconsin 73 - Loyola Ill 64 0.767 Wisconsin 77 - Loyola Ill 63 -5
Wofford 72 - Coastal Carolina 70 0.579 Wofford 88 - Coastal Carolina 77 -9

GAMES OF 12-16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 89 - Unranked 51 Abilene Christian 95 - Unranked 73
Alabama Birmingham 79 - Southern 59 0.94 Alabama Birmingham 88 - Southern 46 -22
Arizona State 79 - Texas El Paso 64 0.935 Arizona State 63 - Texas El Paso 76 28
Belmont 79 - Kennesaw St 58 0.951 Belmont 64 - Kennesaw St 53 10
Bryant 77 - Wagner 62 0.844 Bryant 74 - Wagner 62 3
Cal Poly 67 - San Diego 72 0.682 Cal Poly 61 - San Diego 70 4
Central Connecticut State 70 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 75 0.676 Central Connecticut State 78 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 59 -24
Chattanooga 77 - UNC Asheville 64 0.904 Chattanooga 69 - UNC Asheville 66 10
Cincinnati 77 - South Florida 65 0.856 Cincinnati 71 - South Florida 74 15
Colorado 83 - Omaha 61 0.949 Colorado 91 - Omaha 49 -20
Denver 59 - Northern Colorado 76 0.872 Denver 75 - Northern Colorado 83 -9
Elon 67 - Campbell 68 0.535 Elon 66 - Campbell 56 -11
Florida Gulf Coast 72 - Florida International 70 0.535 Florida Gulf Coast 69 - Florida International 85 18
Georgia State 75 - Mercer 77 0.563 Georgia State 88 - Mercer 81 -9
Hampton 73 - William and Mary 76 0.584 Hampton 58 - William and Mary 75 14
Jacksonville State 71 - Tennessee Tech 61 0.884 Jacksonville State 74 - Tennessee Tech 50 -14
La Salle 68 - Massachusetts 70 0.538 La Salle 66 - Massachusetts 85 17
Liberty 94 - Unranked 51 Liberty 91 - Unranked 38
Marshall 77 - Toledo 68 0.73 Marshall 87 - Toledo 96 18
Miami 73 - Pittsburgh 69 0.61 Miami 55 - Pittsburgh 70 19
Middle Tennessee 61 - Mississippi 77 0.845 Middle Tennessee 51 - Mississippi 70 3
Mississippi State 84 - Central Arkansas 65 0.938 Mississippi State 81 - Central Arkansas 65 3
Missouri State 89 - Unranked 55 Missouri State 73 - Unranked 64
Notre Dame 74 - Duke 73 0.509 Notre Dame 65 - Duke 75 11
Oklahoma 87 - Oral Roberts 71 0.881 Oklahoma 79 - Oral Roberts 65 2
Oklahoma State 75 - Texas Christian 68 0.708 Oklahoma State 76 - Texas Christian 77 8
Oregon State 78 - Texas San Antonio 65 0.799 Oregon State 73 - Texas San Antonio 61 1
Pepperdine 94 - Unranked 58 Pepperdine 91 - Unranked 68
Purdue 76 - Ohio State 72 0.6 Purdue 67 - Ohio State 60 -3
Sacred Heart 75 - LIU Brooklyn 69 0.684 Sacred Heart 55 - LIU Brooklyn 75 26
South Alabama 87 - Unranked 60 South Alabama 103 - Unranked 81
Southern Methodist 79 - East Carolina 68 0.851 Southern Methodist 70 - East Carolina 55 -4
Syracuse 82 - Northeastern 63 0.871 Syracuse 62 - Northeastern 56 13
Texas 88 - Sam Houston State 55 0.98 Texas 79 - Sam Houston State 63 17
Troy 66 - Samford 71 0.651 Troy 79 - Samford 71 -13
Tulane 65 - Memphis 72 0.722 Tulane 74 - Memphis 80 -1
UL Monroe 69 - Grambling State 61 0.731 UL Monroe 61 - Grambling State 78 25
Vanderbilt 72 - Richmond 74 0.578 Vanderbilt 67 - Richmond 78 9
Villanova 79 - Butler 64 0.852 Villanova 85 - Butler 66 -4
Washington 70 - Montana 63 0.69 Washington 58 - Montana 66 15

GAMES OF 12-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 87 - Unranked 56 Appalachian State 87 - Unranked 47
Bradley 77 - Jackson State 57 0.957 Bradley 83 - Jackson State 60 -3
Bryant 77 - Wagner 62 0.844 Bryant 81 - Wagner 75 9
Coastal Carolina 87 - Delaware State 58 0.932 Coastal Carolina 99 - Delaware State 73 3
Drexel 76 - Saint Josephs 72 0.611 Drexel 81 - Saint Josephs 77 0
East Tennessee State 85 - Unranked 52 East Tennessee State 96 - Unranked 54
Eastern Kentucky 91 - Unranked 58 Eastern Kentucky 118 - Unranked 54
Idaho State 76 - Unranked 62 Idaho State 89 - Unranked 54
Loyola Marymount 73 - UC Irvine 67 0.697 Loyola Marymount 51 - UC Irvine 48 3
Marquette 72 - Seton Hall 73 0.507 Marquette 63 - Seton Hall 70 6
Nebraska 91 - Unranked 55 Nebraska 110 - Unranked 64
New Mexico 90 - Unranked 53 New Mexico 90 - Unranked 58
North Alabama 82 - Unranked 63 North Alabama 99 - Unranked 51
North Texas 82 - Houston Baptist 61 0.964 North Texas 85 - Houston Baptist 55 -9
Oregon 80 - San Francisco 70 0.76 Oregon 74 - San Francisco 64 0
Sacred Heart 75 - LIU Brooklyn 69 0.684 Sacred Heart 87 - LIU Brooklyn 72 -9
Saint Johns 75 - Creighton 83 0.755 Saint Johns 76 - Creighton 94 10
Saint Louis 75 - NC State 74 0.516 Saint Louis 80 - NC State 69 -10
Seattle 82 - Unranked 58 Seattle 78 - Unranked 54
Southern Illinois 75 - North Dakota 61 0.896 Southern Illinois 85 - North Dakota 64 -7
Southern Utah 74 - Dixie State 69 0.71 Southern Utah 85 - Dixie State 78 -2
Texas Arlington 86 - Unranked 56 Texas Arlington 109 - Unranked 48
Texas Tech 71 - Kansas 72 0.508 Texas Tech 57 - Kansas 58 0
Valparaiso 86 - Unranked 56 Valparaiso 89 - Unranked 71
Wyoming 77 - Omaha 69 0.749 Wyoming 82 - Omaha 78 4

GAMES OF 12-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 87 - Unranked 56 Appalachian State 77 - Unranked 41
Arkansas Little Rock 89 - Unranked 56 Arkansas Little Rock 78 - Unranked 50
Coastal Carolina 90 - Unranked 57 Coastal Carolina 86 - Unranked 63
College of Charleston 76 - Western Carolina 75 0.503 College of Charleston 70 - Western Carolina 76 7
Florida Gulf Coast 86 - Unranked 55 Florida Gulf Coast 112 - Unranked 39
Gardner Webb 70 - Virginia Military Institute 72 0.578 Gardner Webb 88 - Virginia Military Institute 77 -13
Georgia State 97 - Unranked 58 Georgia State 122 - Unranked 57
Georgia Tech 85 - Florida AM 61 0.942 Georgia Tech 74 - Florida AM 64 14
Howard 66 - Hampton 77 0.832 Howard 81 - Hampton 76 -16
Idaho State 76 - Unranked 62 Idaho State 113 - Unranked 46
Loyola Ill 72 - Richmond 74 0.565 Loyola Ill 73 - Richmond 75 0
Monmouth 69 - Saint Peters 71 0.56 Monmouth 78 - Saint Peters 76 -4
Montana 84 - Unranked 55 Montana 78 - Unranked 51
Morehead State 69 - SIU Edwardsville 66 0.567 Morehead State 65 - SIU Edwardsville 69 7
Nevada 73 - Air Force 59 0.789 Nevada 74 - Air Force 57 -3
Niagara 67 - Fairfield 61 0.645 Niagara 68 - Fairfield 51 -11
Norfolk State 67 - UNC Wilmington 68 0.521 Norfolk State 72 - UNC Wilmington 80 7
North Carolina AT 82 - Unranked 63 North Carolina AT 91 - Unranked 45
Northern Illinois 74 - Chicago State 60 0.841 Northern Illinois 64 - Chicago State 54 4
Portland State 69 - Weber State 72 0.591 Portland State 66 - Weber State 94 25
Presbyterian 69 - South Carolina State 63 0.672 Presbyterian 62 - South Carolina State 56 0
Rhode Island 73 - Davidson 71 0.542 Rhode Island 58 - Davidson 67 11
Rider 72 - Iona 69 0.566 Rider 56 - Iona 70 17
Robert Morris 71 - Bowling Green 73 0.54 Robert Morris 65 - Bowling Green 85 18
San Diego State 75 - Brigham Young 63 0.827 San Diego State 62 - Brigham Young 72 22
SE Missouri State 76 - Tennessee Martin 77 0.52 SE Missouri State 67 - Tennessee Martin 69 1
South Dakota 67 - Drake 80 0.83 South Dakota 57 - Drake 75 5
Southern Illinois 75 - North Dakota 61 0.896 Southern Illinois 62 - North Dakota 50 2
Southern Utah 88 - Unranked 58 Southern Utah 98 - Unranked 64
Tennessee 84 - Tennessee Tech 52 0.971 Tennessee 103 - Tennessee Tech 49 -22
Tennessee State 62 - Belmont 74 0.858 Tennessee State 63 - Belmont 88 13
Tulsa 85 - Northwestern State 63 0.928 Tulsa 82 - Northwestern State 55 -5
Utah 81 - Idaho 60 0.923 Utah 79 - Idaho 41 -17
Utah State 71 - Northern Colorado 70 0.52 Utah State 63 - Northern Colorado 50 -12
Washington State 73 - Montana State 69 0.618 Washington State 82 - Montana State 54 -24
West Virginia 85 - Iowa State 63 0.946 West Virginia 70 - Iowa State 65 17
Western Michigan 69 - Central Michigan 73 0.63 Western Michigan 76 - Central Michigan 61 -19
Wichita State 94 - Unranked 52 Wichita State 73 - Unranked 57

GAMES OF 12-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 92 - Unranked 51 Akron 93 - Unranked 83
Alabama 79 - Western Kentucky 73 0.683 Alabama 71 - Western Kentucky 73 8
Alabama AM 69 - South Alabama 70 0.531 Alabama AM 93 - South Alabama 90 -4
Alabama Birmingham 73 - Chattanooga 68 0.654 Alabama Birmingham 66 - Chattanooga 69 8
Albany 63 - UMBC 73 0.775 Albany 64 - UMBC 65 -9
Auburn 80 - Troy 59 0.936 Auburn 77 - Troy 41 -15
Binghamton 64 - Stony Brook 71 0.753 Binghamton 59 - Stony Brook 73 7
Bradley 71 - Miami OH 60 0.783 Bradley 69 - Miami OH 68 10
Butler 67 - Indiana 76 0.717 Butler 60 - Indiana 68 -1
Cal State Bakersfield 82 - Unranked 57 Cal State Bakersfield 87 - Unranked 46
California 71 - Cal State Northridge 69 0.539 California 87 - Cal State Northridge 56 -29
Central Arkansas 86 - Unranked 62 Central Arkansas 92 - Unranked 28
Charlotte 72 - North Carolina AT 62 0.751 Charlotte 76 - North Carolina AT 72 6
Dayton 71 - Mississippi 70 0.504 Dayton 65 - Mississippi 62 -2
Denver 61 - Texas State 73 0.873 Denver 68 - Texas State 70 -10
Detroit 65 - Wright State 76 0.797 Detroit 70 - Wright State 93 12
Dixie State 86 - Unranked 58 Dixie State 90 - Unranked 69
East Carolina 80 - James Madison 63 0.919 East Carolina 73 - James Madison 64 8
East Tennessee State 85 - Unranked 52 East Tennessee State 62 - Unranked 53
Elon 65 - UNC Greensboro 70 0.646 Elon 64 - UNC Greensboro 71 2
Fairleigh Dickinson 67 - Drexel 74 0.715 Fairleigh Dickinson 68 - Drexel 85 10
Florida International 73 - Georgia Southern 68 0.619 Florida International 99 - Georgia Southern 103 9
Florida State 79 - Central Florida 62 0.907 Florida State 74 - Central Florida 86 29
Fresno State 87 - Unranked 55 Fresno State 78 - Unranked 65
Georgia 71 - Cincinnati 72 0.518 Georgia 83 - Cincinnati 68 -16
Green Bay 73 - Milwaukee 76 0.585 Green Bay 65 - Milwaukee 68 0
Hartford 72 - Maine 60 0.775 Hartford 63 - Maine 60 9
Hawaii 85 - Unranked 55 Hawaii 89 - Unranked 66
Illinois Chicago 75 - Oakland 66 0.71 Illinois Chicago 74 - Oakland 72 7
Indiana State 74 - Ball State 73 0.504 Indiana State 67 - Ball State 57 -9
Iowa 78 - Gonzaga 88 0.805 Iowa 88 - Gonzaga 99 1
IPFW 69 - Cleveland State 63 0.627 IPFW 61 - Cleveland State 63 8
Kansas State 61 - Baylor 84 0.959 Kansas State 69 - Baylor 100 8
Kennesaw St 63 - Samford 76 0.831 Kennesaw St 63 - Samford 65 -11
Kentucky 68 - North Carolina 75 0.69 Kentucky 63 - North Carolina 75 5
La Salle 68 - Delaware 62 0.677 La Salle 71 - Delaware 61 -4
Longwood 70 - The Citadel 68 0.571 Longwood 89 - The Citadel 91 4
Louisiana Tech 74 - Lamar 60 0.873 Louisiana Tech 86 - Lamar 57 -15
Loyola Marymount 78 - Cal Poly 61 0.94 Loyola Marymount 76 - Cal Poly 52 -7
Manhattan 67 - Marist 65 0.557 Manhattan 39 - Marist 61 24
Miami 79 - Jacksonville 60 0.917 Miami 73 - Jacksonville 64 10
Missouri State 83 - Northwestern State 63 0.87 Missouri State 94 - Northwestern State 67 -7
Monmouth 69 - Saint Peters 71 0.56 Monmouth 76 - Saint Peters 78 0
Morgan State 85 - Unranked 59 Morgan State 67 - Unranked 73
NC State 83 - Campbell 60 0.962 NC State 69 - Campbell 50 4
Niagara 67 - Fairfield 61 0.645 Niagara 81 - Fairfield 61 -14
North Florida 85 - Unranked 61 North Florida 66 - Unranked 73
Northern Arizona 63 - Eastern Washington 76 0.828 Northern Arizona 64 - Eastern Washington 80 3
Northern Kentucky 74 - Youngstown State 69 0.672 Northern Kentucky 79 - Youngstown State 64 -10
Ohio State 75 - UCLA 74 0.53 Ohio State 77 - UCLA 70 -6
Oklahoma 92 - Houston Baptist 61 0.983 Oklahoma 84 - Houston Baptist 65 12
Oregon 88 - Portland 63 0.953 Oregon 80 - Portland 41 -14
Pepperdine 75 - UC Santa Barbara 71 0.626 Pepperdine 63 - UC Santa Barbara 75 16
Purdue 78 - Notre Dame 71 0.709 Purdue 88 - Notre Dame 78 -3
Rider 72 - Iona 69 0.566 Rider 64 - Iona 72 11
Saint Bonaventure 72 - Hofstra 65 0.711 Saint Bonaventure 77 - Hofstra 69 -1
Saint Marys 76 - Colorado State 66 0.758 Saint Marys 53 - Colorado State 33 -10
Sam Houston State 66 - Rice 73 0.747 Sam Houston State 82 - Rice 69 -20
Southern Miss 61 - UL Monroe 67 0.663 Southern Miss 60 - UL Monroe 47 -19
Stanford 74 - Arizona 73 0.517 Stanford 78 - Arizona 75 -2
Stetson 81 - Unranked 63 Stetson 95 - Unranked 51
Syracuse 83 - Buffalo 65 0.884 Syracuse 107 - Buffalo 96 7
Temple 78 - NJ Tech 61 0.868 Temple 72 - NJ Tech 60 5
Tennessee State 79 - Unranked 58 Tennessee State 90 - Unranked 68
Texas AM CC 79 - Unranked 60 Texas AM CC 99 - Unranked 72
Toledo 75 - Valparaiso 65 0.759 Toledo 71 - Valparaiso 57 -4
Tulane 71 - Grambling State 57 0.892 Tulane 77 - Grambling State 65 2
UC Irvine 73 - San Diego 67 0.675 UC Irvine 85 - San Diego 53 -26
UL Lafayette 84 - Mcneese State 62 0.909 UL Lafayette 75 - Mcneese State 65 12
UMKC 80 - Unranked 59 UMKC 98 - Unranked 42
Vanderbilt 76 - Radford 58 0.944 Vanderbilt 59 - Radford 50 9
Villanova 91 - Saint Josephs 64 0.996 Villanova 88 - Saint Josephs 68 7
Virginia Tech 86 - Coppin State 56 0.962 Virginia Tech 97 - Coppin State 57 -10
William and Mary 76 - High Point 70 0.692 William and Mary 49 - High Point 71 28
Winthrop 75 - Furman 74 0.514 Winthrop 87 - Furman 71 -15
Wisconsin 67 - Louisville 71 0.643 Wisconsin 85 - Louisville 48 -41

GAMES OF 12-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Albany 63 - UMBC 73 0.775 Albany 60 - UMBC 65 -5
Arkansas 88 - Oral Roberts 67 0.929 Arkansas 87 - Oral Roberts 76 10
Arkansas State 81 - Unranked 63 Arkansas State 90 - Unranked 50
Binghamton 64 - Stony Brook 71 0.753 Binghamton 70 - Stony Brook 80 3
Central Michigan 89 - Unranked 61 Central Michigan 127 - Unranked 66
Colorado 75 - Washington 64 0.753 Colorado 92 - Washington 69 -12
Connecticut 75 - Creighton 74 0.515 Connecticut 74 - Creighton 76 3
Detroit 65 - Wright State 76 0.797 Detroit 72 - Wright State 85 2
Drake 89 - Chicago State 51 0.971 Drake 111 - Chicago State 67 -6
Georgia Southern 84 - Unranked 57 Georgia Southern 119 - Unranked 43
Georgia Tech 94 - Delaware State 56 0.964 Georgia Tech 97 - Delaware State 69 10
Green Bay 73 - Milwaukee 76 0.585 Green Bay 62 - Milwaukee 74 9
Hartford 72 - Maine 60 0.775 Hartford 65 - Maine 50 -3
Houston 93 - Alcorn State 49 0.977 Houston 88 - Alcorn State 55 11
Illinois Chicago 75 - Oakland 66 0.71 Illinois Chicago 90 - Oakland 73 -8
Iowa State 79 - Jackson State 62 0.93 Iowa State 60 - Jackson State 45 2
IPFW 69 - Cleveland State 63 0.627 IPFW 80 - Cleveland State 89 15
James Madison 84 - Unranked 62 James Madison 98 - Unranked 55
Manhattan 67 - Marist 65 0.557 Manhattan 67 - Marist 72 7
Marshall 77 - Robert Morris 61 0.83 Marshall 85 - Robert Morris 71 2
Minnesota 74 - Saint Louis 75 0.541 Minnesota 90 - Saint Louis 82 -9
Nevada 73 - Air Force 59 0.789 Nevada 66 - Air Force 68 16
North Alabama 82 - Unranked 63 North Alabama 82 - Unranked 56
Northern Kentucky 74 - Youngstown State 69 0.672 Northern Kentucky 60 - Youngstown State 70 15
Northwestern 73 - Michigan State 81 0.737 Northwestern 79 - Michigan State 65 -22
Old Dominion 74 - Northeastern 69 0.674 Old Dominion 66 - Northeastern 62 1
Portland State 69 - Weber State 72 0.591 Portland State 74 - Weber State 72 -5
Rutgers 74 - Illinois 73 0.535 Rutgers 91 - Illinois 88 -2
Saint Johns 77 - Georgetown 78 0.503 Saint Johns 94 - Georgetown 83 -12
San Francisco 74 - Grand Canyon 72 0.572 San Francisco 68 - Grand Canyon 65 -1
Seton Hall 78 - Providence 72 0.672 Seton Hall 77 - Providence 80 9
South Dakota 87 - Unranked 60 South Dakota 84 - Unranked 44
Tennessee Martin 81 - Western Illinois 70 0.861 Tennessee Martin 63 - Western Illinois 81 29
Texas 76 - Oklahoma State 68 0.734 Texas 77 - Oklahoma State 74 5
Texas El Paso 84 - Unranked 55 Texas El Paso 79 - Unranked 59
Texas San Antonio 84 - Unranked 65 Texas San Antonio 102 - Unranked 70
Unranked 55 - Pacific 86 Unranked 64 - Pacific 92
Xavier 77 - Marquette 68 0.739 Xavier 91 - Marquette 88 6


Number of DI Games: 215
Number Correct: 152 = 70.6%
Expected Number Correct: 159.729 = 74.2%
Average Error: 9.79
Average Signed Error: 1.13

GAMES OF 12-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Austin Peay 68 - Murray State 75 0.646 Austin Peay 74 - Murray State 70 -11
Baylor 95 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 52 0.968 Baylor 99 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 42 -14
Boise State 73 - New Mexico 63 0.772 Boise State 77 - New Mexico 53 -14
Brigham Young 80 - Texas Southern 62 0.915 Brigham Young 87 - Texas Southern 71 2
Butler 70 - Southern Illinois 69 0.563 Butler 73 - Southern Illinois 76 4
Campbell 68 - UNC Wilmington 71 0.59 Campbell 59 - UNC Wilmington 78 16
Charleston Southern 68 - Hampton 64 0.62 Charleston Southern 55 - Hampton 67 16
Clemson 82 - Morehead State 51 0.992 Clemson 66 - Morehead State 51 16
Delaware 68 - Morgan State 69 0.55 Delaware 59 - Morgan State 65 5
Evansville 64 - Belmont 74 0.781 Evansville 63 - Belmont 72 -1
Florida Atlantic 82 - Unranked 58 Florida Atlantic 107 - Unranked 72
Florida International 92 - Unranked 59 Florida International 111 - Unranked 34
Florida State 85 - Gardner Webb 63 0.947 Florida State 72 - Gardner Webb 59 9
Furman 84 - South Carolina State 56 0.988 Furman 118 - South Carolina State 51 -39
George Mason 71 - Virginia Military Institute 68 0.607 George Mason 68 - Virginia Military Institute 66 1
Georgia State 83 - College of Charleston 65 0.9 Georgia State 72 - College of Charleston 55 1
Gonzaga 104 - Northwestern State 54 0.968 Gonzaga 95 - Northwestern State 57 12
Kansas State 76 - Jacksonville 64 0.851 Kansas State 70 - Jacksonville 46 -12
Lipscomb 84 - Unranked 59 Lipscomb 97 - Unranked 60
Massachusetts 82 - Bryant 71 0.785 Massachusetts 88 - Bryant 93 16
Memphis 75 - Tulsa 68 0.736 Memphis 49 - Tulsa 56 14
Mississippi State 92 - Mississippi Valley State 55 0.976 Mississippi State 87 - Mississippi Valley State 48 -2
Missouri State 75 - Arkansas Little Rock 70 0.64 Missouri State 85 - Arkansas Little Rock 77 -3
North Florida 85 - Unranked 61 North Florida 98 - Unranked 71
Rice 76 - New Orleans 64 0.859 Rice 73 - New Orleans 62 1
Samford 88 - Unranked 59 Samford 133 - Unranked 84
Southern Utah 90 - Unranked 57 Southern Utah 96 - Unranked 57
Stanford 79 - Cal State Bakersfield 57 0.954 Stanford 63 - Cal State Bakersfield 50 9
Tennessee 90 - Saint Josephs 61 0.961 Tennessee 102 - Saint Josephs 66 -7
Texas AM 70 - Wofford 69 0.532 Texas AM 70 - Wofford 52 -17
Texas Pan American 73 - Sam Houston State 72 0.504 Texas Pan American 66 - Sam Houston State 69 4
Texas State 76 - Northern Arizona 59 0.895 Texas State 70 - Northern Arizona 65 12
UMass Lowell 65 - Vermont 75 0.754 UMass Lowell 73 - Vermont 65 -18
Utah State 84 - San Jose State 61 0.938 Utah State 107 - San Jose State 62 -22
Virginia Tech 86 - Longwood 56 0.965 Virginia Tech 84 - Longwood 58 4
Wagner 62 - Sacred Heart 70 0.684 Wagner 74 - Sacred Heart 46 -36
Washington State 72 - Prairie View 62 0.797 Washington State 90 - Prairie View 62 -18

GAMES OF 12-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 71 - Ohio 72 0.509 Akron 90 - Ohio 70 -21
Alabama 75 - East Tennessee State 65 0.763 Alabama 85 - East Tennessee State 69 -6
Albany 65 - Niagara 64 0.55 Albany 65 - Niagara 70 6
Arizona 77 - Montana 64 0.882 Arizona 70 - Montana 64 7
Arkansas 78 - Abilene Christian 65 0.807 Arkansas 85 - Abilene Christian 72 0
Auburn 80 - Appalachian State 63 0.92 Auburn 67 - Appalachian State 53 3
Boston College 79 - Maine 62 0.875 Boston College 78 - Maine 62 1
California 73 - Seattle 61 0.763 California 70 - Seattle 65 7
Central Florida 77 - Cincinnati 65 0.777 Central Florida 75 - Cincinnati 70 7
Charleston Southern 68 - Hampton 64 0.62 Charleston Southern 68 - Hampton 70 6
Colorado 79 - Grand Canyon 64 0.902 Colorado 74 - Grand Canyon 64 5
Davidson 73 - Vanderbilt 66 0.713 Davidson 85 - Vanderbilt 65 -13
Denver 72 - Northern Arizona 67 0.657 Denver 65 - Northern Arizona 68 8
Drake 81 - North Dakota 61 0.953 Drake 88 - North Dakota 55 -13
East Carolina 72 - Tulane 66 0.741 East Carolina 68 - Tulane 58 -4
Eastern Kentucky 73 - High Point 70 0.594 Eastern Kentucky 86 - High Point 67 -16
Fairfield 68 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.565 Fairfield 65 - Fairleigh Dickinson 69 1
Florida Gulf Coast 68 - Georgia Southern 69 0.532 Florida Gulf Coast 73 - Georgia Southern 60 -14
George Washington 66 - Charlotte 74 0.718 George Washington 65 - Charlotte 66 -7
Georgia 79 - Northeastern 66 0.8 Georgia 76 - Northeastern 58 -5
Gonzaga 104 - Northwestern State 54 0.968 Gonzaga 95 - Northwestern State 78 33
Houston 81 - Temple 64 0.922 Houston 76 - Temple 50 -9
Indiana State 78 - SE Missouri State 60 0.944 Indiana State 72 - SE Missouri State 66 12
Iowa 81 - Purdue 77 0.635 Iowa 70 - Purdue 55 -11
Kansas 74 - West Virginia 73 0.53 Kansas 79 - West Virginia 65 -13
Kennesaw St 54 - Mercer 76 0.938 Kennesaw St 71 - Mercer 81 -12
Liberty 85 - Alcorn State 59 0.943 Liberty 108 - Alcorn State 65 -17
Loyola Ill 92 - Unranked 52 Loyola Ill 92 - Unranked 55
Marshall 79 - UNC Asheville 66 0.834 Marshall 88 - UNC Asheville 67 -8
Maryland 80 - La Salle 59 0.93 Maryland 84 - La Salle 71 8
Mississippi 83 - Tennessee Martin 57 0.964 Mississippi 90 - Tennessee Martin 43 -21
Missouri 81 - Bradley 62 0.936 Missouri 54 - Bradley 53 18
NC State 71 - North Carolina 72 0.502 NC State 79 - North Carolina 76 -4
North Carolina AT 63 - UNC Greensboro 74 0.79 North Carolina AT 65 - UNC Greensboro 86 10
North Texas 89 - Unranked 52 North Texas 110 - Unranked 78
Northern Colorado 72 - Idaho State 59 0.885 Northern Colorado 69 - Idaho State 64 8
Oklahoma 71 - Texas Tech 73 0.566 Oklahoma 67 - Texas Tech 69 0
Old Dominion 90 - Unranked 54 Old Dominion 77 - Unranked 57
Oregon State 76 - Portland State 63 0.801 Oregon State 67 - Portland State 62 8
Pittsburgh 69 - Louisville 72 0.561 Pittsburgh 54 - Louisville 64 7
Portland 72 - Montana State 73 0.504 Portland 62 - Montana State 59 -4
Richmond 79 - Hofstra 67 0.867 Richmond 71 - Hofstra 76 17
Saint Marys 67 - San Diego State 68 0.517 Saint Marys 49 - San Diego State 74 24
Santa Clara 65 - Colorado State 64 0.552 Santa Clara 57 - Colorado State 70 14
South Florida 70 - Wichita State 74 0.643 South Florida 77 - Wichita State 82 1
Tennessee State 56 - Chattanooga 77 0.953 Tennessee State 63 - Chattanooga 66 -18
Texas AM CC 79 - Unranked 59 Texas AM CC 59 - Unranked 35
Texas Arlington 86 - Unranked 56 Texas Arlington 117 - Unranked 53
Texas Christian 75 - North Dakota State 60 0.85 Texas Christian 89 - North Dakota State 82 8
Texas San Antonio 70 - Lamar 67 0.602 Texas San Antonio 88 - Lamar 66 -19
The Citadel 78 - Presbyterian 66 0.873 The Citadel 94 - Presbyterian 82 0
Toledo 81 - Northern Illinois 57 0.943 Toledo 78 - Northern Illinois 55 1
UC San Diego 74 - Unranked 72 UC San Diego 77 - Unranked 51
UL Monroe 61 - Louisiana Tech 75 0.838 UL Monroe 57 - Louisiana Tech 68 -3
UMass Lowell 65 - Vermont 75 0.754 UMass Lowell 53 - Vermont 62 -1
Virginia 81 - William and Mary 54 0.96 Virginia 76 - William and Mary 40 -9
Virginia Commonwealth 86 - James Madison 58 0.98 Virginia Commonwealth 82 - James Madison 81 27
Wagner 62 - Sacred Heart 70 0.684 Wagner 85 - Sacred Heart 86 -7
Western Kentucky 83 - Tennessee Tech 60 0.946 Western Kentucky 88 - Tennessee Tech 68 3
Western Michigan 65 - Ball State 71 0.727 Western Michigan 68 - Ball State 76 2
Wisconsin 81 - Nebraska 62 0.861 Wisconsin 67 - Nebraska 53 5

GAMES OF 12-23

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Boise State 73 - New Mexico 63 0.772 Boise State 89 - New Mexico 52 -27
Brigham Young 79 - Weber State 62 0.848 Brigham Young 87 - Weber State 79 9
Butler 71 - Providence 74 0.586 Butler 70 - Providence 64 -9
Creighton 78 - Xavier 77 0.521 Creighton 66 - Xavier 61 -4
DePaul 79 - Western Illinois 60 0.886 DePaul 91 - Western Illinois 72 0
George Mason 71 - Towson 65 0.682 George Mason 70 - Towson 65 1
Grambling State 68 - Southeast Louisiana 62 0.683 Grambling State 70 - Southeast Louisiana 77 13
Indiana 77 - Northwestern 70 0.694 Indiana 67 - Northwestern 74 14
Iona 76 - Coppin State 62 0.793 Iona 85 - Coppin State 65 -6
Marquette 72 - Villanova 78 0.717 Marquette 68 - Villanova 85 11
Northern Colorado 72 - Idaho State 59 0.885 Northern Colorado 56 - Idaho State 71 28
Notre Dame 78 - Bellarmine 66 0.918 Notre Dame 81 - Bellarmine 70 1
Ohio State 71 - Rutgers 76 0.659 Ohio State 80 - Rutgers 68 -17
Penn State 77 - Illinois 76 0.521 Penn State 81 - Illinois 98 18
Pepperdine 77 - Cal State Bakersfield 67 0.815 Pepperdine 51 - Cal State Bakersfield 79 38
Rider 70 - NJ Tech 69 0.501 Rider 66 - NJ Tech 81 16
Saint Francis Brooklyn 63 - Saint Peters 74 0.774 Saint Francis Brooklyn 64 - Saint Peters 70 -5
Saint Louis 85 - UMKC 56 0.995 Saint Louis 62 - UMKC 46 13
Seton Hall 80 - Georgetown 71 0.791 Seton Hall 78 - Georgetown 67 -2
Tennessee 91 - South Carolina Upstate 50 0.972 Tennessee 80 - South Carolina Upstate 60 21
Tulsa 91 - Unranked 54 Tulsa 102 - Unranked 45
UC San Diego 74 - Unranked 72 UC San Diego 75 - Unranked 39
UNC Wilmington 84 - Delaware State 60 0.927 UNC Wilmington 87 - Delaware State 63 0
Utah State 84 - San Jose State 61 0.938 Utah State 85 - San Jose State 52 -10
Washington State 81 - Northwestern State 58 0.931 Washington State 62 - Northwestern State 52 13

GAMES OF 12-25

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Michigan State 71 - Wisconsin 76 0.64 Michigan State 76 - Wisconsin 85 4
Minnesota 78 - Iowa 82 0.616 Minnesota 102 - Iowa 95 -11
Nebraska 65 - Michigan 83 0.862 Nebraska 69 - Michigan 80 -7
Purdue 75 - Maryland 74 0.522 Purdue 73 - Maryland 70 -2

GAMES OF 12-26

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Central Florida 71 - Houston 73 0.548 Central Florida 54 - Houston 63 7
Cleveland State 66 - Youngstown State 70 0.591 Cleveland State 87 - Youngstown State 69 -22
Detroit 77 - Oakland 71 0.647 Detroit 75 - Oakland 77 8
George Mason 70 - Norfolk State 63 0.724 George Mason 65 - Norfolk State 68 10
Illinois 78 - Indiana 73 0.62 Illinois 69 - Indiana 60 -4
IPFW 68 - Robert Morris 71 0.604 IPFW 88 - Robert Morris 102 11
Louisiana State 85 - Nicholls State 59 0.952 Louisiana State 86 - Nicholls State 80 20
Louisville 75 - Kentucky 65 0.725 Louisville 62 - Kentucky 59 7
Northwestern 72 - Ohio State 73 0.504 Northwestern 71 - Ohio State 70 -2
Towson 75 - Coppin State 65 0.758 Towson 78 - Coppin State 73 5
Virginia 68 - Gonzaga 82 0.873 Virginia 75 - Gonzaga 98 9
Wright State 84 - Green Bay 61 0.941 Wright State 67 - Green Bay 53 9

GAMES OF 12-27

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Cleveland State 66 - Youngstown State 70 0.591 Cleveland State 81 - Youngstown State 74 -11
Detroit 77 - Oakland 71 0.647 Detroit 80 - Oakland 83 9
Eastern Michigan 86 - Unranked 59 Eastern Michigan 94 - Unranked 65
Indiana State 69 - Drake 74 0.657 Indiana State 63 - Drake 81 13
IPFW 68 - Robert Morris 71 0.604 IPFW 87 - Robert Morris 82 -8
Jacksonville State 86 - Unranked 53 Jacksonville State 104 - Unranked 45
Loyola Ill 79 - Illinois State 65 0.901 Loyola Ill 90 - Illinois State 60 -16
Monmouth 75 - Canisius 70 0.68 Monmouth 84 - Canisius 66 -13
New Hampshire 63 - Hartford 72 0.794 New Hampshire 77 - Hartford 69 -17
Northern Iowa 73 - Missouri State 75 0.546 Northern Iowa 59 - Missouri State 79 18
Providence 77 - DePaul 69 0.686 Providence 95 - DePaul 90 3
Southern Illinois 76 - Evansville 59 0.916 Southern Illinois 63 - Evansville 57 11
Stony Brook 72 - UMass Lowell 71 0.502 Stony Brook 73 - UMass Lowell 58 -14
UC Irvine 65 - UC Santa Barbara 71 0.646 UC Irvine 75 - UC Santa Barbara 56 -25
UMBC 79 - Binghamton 56 0.987 UMBC 74 - Binghamton 67 16
Vanderbilt 82 - Alcorn State 61 0.918 Vanderbilt 87 - Alcorn State 59 -7
Vermont 77 - NJ Tech 58 0.933 Vermont 92 - NJ Tech 78 5
Wright State 84 - Green Bay 61 0.941 Wright State 90 - Green Bay 77 10


Number of DI Games: 141
Number Correct: 106 = 75.1%
Expected Number Correct: 107.867 = 76.5%
Average Error: 10.48
Average Signed Error: 0.43

GAMES OF 12-28

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 72 - Colorado 73 0.514 Arizona 88 - Colorado 74 -15
Cal State Northridge 64 - New Mexico State 78 0.818 Cal State Northridge 66 - New Mexico State 63 -17
Colorado State 71 - Fresno State 66 0.646 Colorado State 75 - Fresno State 53 -17
Gonzaga 98 - Northern Arizona 54 0.97 Gonzaga 88 - Northern Arizona 58 14
Indiana State 68 - Drake 76 0.746 Indiana State 66 - Drake 73 -1
Loyola Ill 79 - Illinois State 64 0.871 Loyola Ill 86 - Illinois State 55 -16
Minnesota 79 - Michigan State 77 0.541 Minnesota 81 - Michigan State 56 -23
Monmouth 77 - Canisius 67 0.816 Monmouth 97 - Canisius 69 -18
New Hampshire 67 - Hartford 68 0.512 New Hampshire 53 - Hartford 51 -3
Northern Iowa 67 - Missouri State 76 0.734 Northern Iowa 85 - Missouri State 75 -19
Southern Illinois 76 - Evansville 61 0.88 Southern Illinois 72 - Evansville 84 27
Southern Miss 79 - Unranked 56 Southern Miss 74 - Unranked 54
Stony Brook 73 - UMass Lowell 66 0.664 Stony Brook 71 - UMass Lowell 64 0
Troy 83 - Unranked 56 Troy 88 - Unranked 35
UC Irvine 71 - UC Santa Barbara 65 0.63 UC Irvine 73 - UC Santa Barbara 69 2
UMBC 77 - Binghamton 59 0.934 UMBC 69 - Binghamton 75 24
Vermont 77 - NJ Tech 64 0.839 Vermont 80 - NJ Tech 81 14
Wisconsin 76 - Maryland 69 0.677 Wisconsin 64 - Maryland 70 13

GAMES OF 12-29

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 89 - Unranked 52 Abilene Christian 82 - Unranked 44
Alabama 74 - Mississippi 73 0.503 Alabama 82 - Mississippi 64 -17
Baylor 92 - Central Arkansas 59 0.973 Baylor 93 - Central Arkansas 56 -4
Clemson 72 - Florida State 71 0.536 Clemson 77 - Florida State 67 -9
Eastern Michigan 74 - Central Michigan 71 0.59 Eastern Michigan 60 - Central Michigan 87 30
Gonzaga 95 - Dixie State 59 0.969 Gonzaga 112 - Dixie State 67 -9
Iowa 81 - Northwestern 76 0.654 Iowa 87 - Northwestern 72 -10
Kansas State 78 - Omaha 63 0.894 Kansas State 60 - Omaha 58 13
Lamar 65 - Southeast Louisiana 68 0.583 Lamar 74 - Southeast Louisiana 64 -13
Lipscomb 86 - Unranked 58 Lipscomb 93 - Unranked 72
Louisiana State 79 - Texas AM 70 0.72 Louisiana State 77 - Texas AM 54 -14
Mcneese State 80 - Unranked 65 Mcneese State 94 - Unranked 36
Memphis 76 - South Florida 69 0.705 Memphis 58 - South Florida 57 6
Mercer 72 - Wofford 67 0.638 Mercer 65 - Wofford 78 18
Rutgers 75 - Purdue 74 0.501 Rutgers 81 - Purdue 76 -4
Sam Houston State 87 - Unranked 57 Sam Houston State 101 - Unranked 59
Southern California 79 - Santa Clara 61 0.879 Southern California 86 - Santa Clara 63 -5
Texas Tech 87 - Incarnate Word 48 0.968 Texas Tech 79 - Incarnate Word 51 11
Tulsa 65 - Houston 77 0.841 Tulsa 65 - Houston 64 -13
Virginia Tech 77 - Miami 67 0.774 Virginia Tech 80 - Miami 78 8
West Virginia 80 - Northeastern 62 0.905 West Virginia 73 - Northeastern 51 -4

GAMES OF 12-30

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Auburn 75 - Arkansas 76 0.51 Auburn 85 - Arkansas 97 11
Baylor 96 - Alcorn State 53 0.97 Baylor 105 - Alcorn State 76 14
Belmont 74 - Murray State 68 0.66 Belmont 68 - Murray State 55 -7
Chattanooga 70 - Furman 72 0.568 Chattanooga 73 - Furman 77 2
Colorado State 71 - Fresno State 66 0.646 Colorado State 81 - Fresno State 59 -17
Connecticut 80 - DePaul 69 0.831 Connecticut 82 - DePaul 61 -10
Davidson 74 - Richmond 70 0.613 Davidson 74 - Richmond 80 10
Dayton 77 - La Salle 61 0.896 Dayton 65 - La Salle 67 18
Delaware State 64 - Manhattan 69 0.63 Delaware State 59 - Manhattan 65 1
East Tennessee State 75 - Western Carolina 68 0.696 East Tennessee State 86 - Western Carolina 78 -1
Eastern Kentucky 76 - Eastern Illinois 71 0.638 Eastern Kentucky 69 - Eastern Illinois 61 -3
Fordham 70 - George Washington 65 0.661 Fordham 47 - George Washington 71 29
Georgia 76 - Mississippi State 71 0.645 Georgia 73 - Mississippi State 83 15
Georgia Tech 72 - North Carolina 79 0.705 Georgia Tech 72 - North Carolina 67 -12
Hampton 66 - Gardner Webb 75 0.761 Hampton 80 - Gardner Webb 69 -20
High Point 74 - South Carolina Upstate 66 0.705 High Point 63 - South Carolina Upstate 52 -3
Indiana 75 - Penn State 74 0.548 Indiana 87 - Penn State 85 -1
Jacksonville State 75 - Tennessee Martin 61 0.847 Jacksonville State 80 - Tennessee Martin 70 4
Longwood 67 - UNC Asheville 71 0.638 Longwood 73 - UNC Asheville 80 3
Massachusetts 76 - George Mason 70 0.69 Massachusetts 92 - George Mason 93 7
Mcneese State 80 - Unranked 65 Mcneese State 91 - Unranked 76
Missouri 72 - Tennessee 73 0.524 Missouri 53 - Tennessee 73 19
NC State 82 - Boston College 69 0.83 NC State 79 - Boston College 76 10
Notre Dame 66 - Virginia 76 0.806 Notre Dame 57 - Virginia 66 -1
Ohio 75 - Bowling Green 72 0.561 Ohio 75 - Bowling Green 83 11
Ohio State 79 - Nebraska 67 0.795 Ohio State 90 - Nebraska 54 -24
Presbyterian 61 - Radford 69 0.799 Presbyterian 65 - Radford 71 -2
Providence 75 - Butler 71 0.622 Providence 71 - Butler 55 -12
Rhode Island 70 - Saint Bonaventure 74 0.61 Rhode Island 63 - Saint Bonaventure 57 -10
Saint Josephs 69 - Virginia Commonwealth 82 0.858 Saint Josephs 64 - Virginia Commonwealth 80 3
Saint Marys 77 - Sacramento State 60 0.871 Saint Marys 63 - Sacramento State 45 -1
Samford 76 - Virginia Military Institute 70 0.646 Samford 84 - Virginia Military Institute 71 -7
Seattle 70 - Portland 69 0.533 Seattle 84 - Portland 68 -15
Temple 69 - Southern Methodist 77 0.731 Temple 71 - Southern Methodist 79 0
Tennessee State 67 - Austin Peay 71 0.623 Tennessee State 59 - Austin Peay 68 5
Tennessee Tech 70 - SE Missouri State 69 0.543 Tennessee Tech 72 - SE Missouri State 63 -8
Texas Christian 82 - Prairie View 61 0.939 Texas Christian 66 - Prairie View 61 16
Vanderbilt 67 - Florida 79 0.815 Vanderbilt 72 - Florida 91 7
Wichita State 98 - Unranked 51 Wichita State 81 - Unranked 43
Winthrop 82 - Campbell 61 0.937 Winthrop 84 - Campbell 83 20
Xavier 77 - Seton Hall 73 0.633 Xavier 68 - Seton Hall 85 21

GAMES OF 12-31

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 63 - Utah State 72 0.718 Air Force 48 - Utah State 83 26
Hampton 66 - Gardner Webb 75 0.761 Hampton 69 - Gardner Webb 80 2
High Point 74 - South Carolina Upstate 66 0.705 High Point 51 - South Carolina Upstate 60 17
Idaho 69 - Northern Arizona 66 0.592 Idaho 65 - Northern Arizona 78 16
Incarnate Word 77 - Unranked 62 Incarnate Word 92 - Unranked 71
Longwood 67 - UNC Asheville 71 0.638 Longwood 65 - UNC Asheville 55 -14
Maryland 73 - Michigan 77 0.627 Maryland 73 - Michigan 84 7
New Mexico 68 - Nevada 74 0.658 New Mexico 54 - Nevada 68 8
Oregon 80 - California 60 0.903 Oregon 82 - California 69 7
Presbyterian 61 - Radford 69 0.799 Presbyterian 65 - Radford 63 -10
San Francisco 79 - San Diego 63 0.862 San Francisco 70 - San Diego 62 8
San Jose State 55 - Boise State 89 0.982 San Jose State 54 - Boise State 106 18
Southern California 75 - Colorado 71 0.583 Southern California 62 - Colorado 72 14
UCLA 77 - Utah 71 0.666 UCLA 72 - Utah 70 4
Wake Forest 94 - Unranked 53 Wake Forest 70 - Unranked 62
Washington 68 - Arizona 76 0.732 Washington 53 - Arizona 80 19
Winthrop 82 - Campbell 61 0.937 Winthrop 94 - Campbell 76 3
Wisconsin 79 - Minnesota 70 0.697 Wisconsin 71 - Minnesota 59 -3

GAMES OF 1-1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 76 - Kent State 70 0.669 Akron 66 - Kent State 62 2
Appalachian State 69 - Troy 64 0.655 Appalachian State 56 - Troy 69 18
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Texas Arlington 69 0.57 Arkansas Little Rock 102 - Texas Arlington 93 -7
Bellarmine 84 - Unranked 58 Bellarmine 90 - Unranked 40
Canisius 63 - Saint Peters 70 0.713 Canisius 70 - Saint Peters 58 -19
Charlotte 67 - Western Kentucky 74 0.703 Charlotte 63 - Western Kentucky 67 -3
Coastal Carolina 70 - Georgia State 79 0.738 Coastal Carolina 81 - Georgia State 69 -21
Fairfield 68 - Rider 69 0.526 Fairfield 62 - Rider 70 7
Florida International 72 - Old Dominion 74 0.58 Florida International 82 - Old Dominion 67 -17
Georgia Southern 74 - South Alabama 69 0.66 Georgia Southern 59 - South Alabama 88 34
Incarnate Word 77 - Unranked 62 Incarnate Word 81 - Unranked 54
IUPUI 68 - Cleveland State 69 0.536 IUPUI 62 - Cleveland State 65 2
Kennesaw St 65 - Jacksonville 66 0.519 Kennesaw St 57 - Jacksonville 62 4
Lipscomb 65 - Liberty 77 0.843 Lipscomb 77 - Liberty 70 -19
Long Beach State 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 74 0.678 Long Beach State 90 - Cal State Bakersfield 89 -8
Louisiana Tech 70 - Marshall 74 0.628 Louisiana Tech 75 - Marshall 68 -11
Marist 65 - Niagara 66 0.511 Marist 63 - Niagara 61 -3
Montana State 85 - Unranked 59 Montana State 96 - Unranked 67
Northern Kentucky 76 - IPFW 66 0.772 Northern Kentucky 75 - IPFW 68 3
Oakland 67 - Wright State 77 0.771 Oakland 51 - Wright State 90 29
Rice 75 - Texas San Antonio 71 0.624 Rice 95 - Texas San Antonio 86 -5
Robert Morris 67 - Milwaukee 72 0.655 Robert Morris 67 - Milwaukee 64 -8
Southern Miss 60 - Texas El Paso 69 0.735 Southern Miss 74 - Texas El Paso 66 -17
UC Santa Barbara 74 - Cal State Fullerton 64 0.748 UC Santa Barbara 81 - Cal State Fullerton 63 -8
UL Lafayette 69 - Texas State 65 0.654 UL Lafayette 83 - Texas State 77 -2
UL Monroe 70 - Arkansas State 67 0.592 UL Monroe 84 - Arkansas State 72 -9
Youngstown State 73 - Green Bay 72 0.521 Youngstown State 84 - Green Bay 77 -6

GAMES OF 1-2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 77 - Lamar 57 0.934 Abilene Christian 83 - Lamar 65 2
Air Force 63 - Utah State 72 0.718 Air Force 53 - Utah State 72 10
Alabama State 66 - Grambling State 67 0.533 Alabama State 49 - Grambling State 66 16
Appalachian State 69 - Troy 64 0.655 Appalachian State 90 - Troy 59 -26
Arkansas 75 - Missouri 74 0.509 Arkansas 68 - Missouri 81 14
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Texas Arlington 69 0.57 Arkansas Little Rock 75 - Texas Arlington 62 -11
Arkansas Pine Bluff 75 - Mississippi Valley State 64 0.775 Arkansas Pine Bluff 92 - Mississippi Valley State 52 -29
Austin Peay 74 - Eastern Kentucky 73 0.509 Austin Peay 75 - Eastern Kentucky 80 6
Ball State 71 - Ohio 72 0.527 Ball State 68 - Ohio 78 9
Bellarmine 84 - Unranked 58 Bellarmine 90 - Unranked 38
Boston College 68 - Louisville 80 0.787 Boston College 64 - Louisville 76 0
Canisius 63 - Saint Peters 70 0.713 Canisius 63 - Saint Peters 60 -10
Charlotte 67 - Western Kentucky 74 0.703 Charlotte 75 - Western Kentucky 71 -11
Cincinnati 73 - Tulsa 69 0.618 Cincinnati 66 - Tulsa 70 8
Coastal Carolina 70 - Georgia State 79 0.738 Coastal Carolina 62 - Georgia State 70 -1
Colgate 72 - Army 67 0.647 Colgate 101 - Army 57 -39
Dayton 77 - George Mason 60 0.915 Dayton 74 - George Mason 65 8
Delaware 65 - College of Charleston 69 0.646 Delaware 70 - College of Charleston 67 -7
Eastern Illinois 74 - Tennessee Tech 65 0.749 Eastern Illinois 87 - Tennessee Tech 81 3
Evansville 66 - Northern Iowa 70 0.63 Evansville 65 - Northern Iowa 61 -8
Fairfield 68 - Rider 69 0.526 Fairfield 72 - Rider 56 -17
Florida 78 - Louisiana State 74 0.602 Florida 83 - Louisiana State 79 0
Florida International 72 - Old Dominion 74 0.58 Florida International 66 - Old Dominion 71 3
Fresno State 74 - Wyoming 70 0.653 Fresno State 74 - Wyoming 78 8
Furman 75 - Mercer 70 0.603 Furman 83 - Mercer 80 2
George Washington 68 - Duquesne 77 0.765 George Washington 63 - Duquesne 75 3
Georgetown 73 - Marquette 78 0.648 Georgetown 60 - Marquette 64 -1
Georgia Southern 74 - South Alabama 69 0.66 Georgia Southern 62 - South Alabama 49 -8
Gonzaga 89 - San Francisco 66 0.918 Gonzaga 85 - San Francisco 62 0
Hartford 74 - Binghamton 60 0.888 Hartford 76 - Binghamton 56 -6
Hofstra 79 - William and Mary 64 0.854 Hofstra 61 - William and Mary 56 10
Houston Baptist 73 - Northwestern State 74 0.517 Houston Baptist 99 - Northwestern State 93 -7
Idaho 69 - Northern Arizona 66 0.592 Idaho 78 - Northern Arizona 83 8
Illinois 78 - Purdue 75 0.578 Illinois 66 - Purdue 58 -5
Iowa State 68 - Baylor 84 0.898 Iowa State 65 - Baylor 76 -5
IUPUI 68 - Cleveland State 69 0.536 IUPUI 49 - Cleveland State 59 9
Kansas 77 - Texas 71 0.664 Kansas 59 - Texas 84 31
Kansas State 70 - Texas Christian 73 0.593 Kansas State 60 - Texas Christian 67 4
Kennesaw St 65 - Jacksonville 66 0.519 Kennesaw St 66 - Jacksonville 72 5
La Salle 68 - Fordham 63 0.672 La Salle 89 - Fordham 52 -32
Lehigh 71 - Lafayette 70 0.546 Lehigh 90 - Lafayette 89 0
Lipscomb 65 - Liberty 77 0.843 Lipscomb 50 - Liberty 66 4
Long Beach State 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 74 0.678 Long Beach State 76 - Cal State Bakersfield 89 6
Louisiana Tech 70 - Marshall 74 0.628 Louisiana Tech 73 - Marshall 80 3
Loyola Ill 72 - North Texas 65 0.759 Loyola Ill 57 - North Texas 49 -1
Maine 64 - New Hampshire 71 0.739 Maine 59 - New Hampshire 56 -10
Marist 65 - Niagara 66 0.511 Marist 72 - Niagara 86 13
Mcneese State 69 - Central Arkansas 77 0.716 Mcneese State 67 - Central Arkansas 81 6
Miami 65 - Clemson 73 0.733 Miami 65 - Clemson 66 -7
Mississippi 74 - Wichita State 72 0.553 Mississippi 79 - Wichita State 83 6
Mississippi State 73 - Kentucky 72 0.525 Mississippi State 73 - Kentucky 78 6
Missouri State 77 - Indiana State 66 0.803 Missouri State 84 - Indiana State 74 1
Montana 73 - Northern Colorado 60 0.842 Montana 62 - Northern Colorado 64 15
Murray State 74 - Morehead State 64 0.735 Murray State 56 - Morehead State 61 15
Navy 71 - Bucknell 68 0.579 Navy 78 - Bucknell 69 -6
Nebraska 72 - Michigan State 79 0.703 Nebraska 77 - Michigan State 84 0
New Mexico 68 - Nevada 74 0.658 New Mexico 74 - Nevada 84 4
Nicholls State 70 - Sam Houston State 71 0.544 Nicholls State 81 - Sam Houston State 84 2
North Carolina 82 - Notre Dame 70 0.868 North Carolina 66 - Notre Dame 65 11
North Dakota 67 - UMKC 66 0.537 North Dakota 52 - UMKC 45 -6
Northeastern 72 - Elon 64 0.756 Northeastern 75 - Elon 52 -15
Northern Illinois 66 - Bowling Green 77 0.794 Northern Illinois 42 - Bowling Green 68 15
Northern Kentucky 76 - IPFW 66 0.772 Northern Kentucky 70 - IPFW 68 8
Oakland 67 - Wright State 77 0.771 Oakland 81 - Wright State 71 -20
Oklahoma 74 - West Virginia 76 0.557 Oklahoma 75 - West Virginia 71 -6
Omaha 73 - Oral Roberts 75 0.579 Omaha 83 - Oral Roberts 95 10
Oregon 77 - Stanford 67 0.755 Oregon 73 - Stanford 56 -7
Oregon State 69 - California 66 0.576 Oregon State 73 - California 64 -6
Providence 74 - Creighton 79 0.653 Providence 65 - Creighton 67 -3
Rice 75 - Texas San Antonio 71 0.624 Rice 84 - Texas San Antonio 69 -11
Richmond 71 - Saint Bonaventure 76 0.641 Richmond 66 - Saint Bonaventure 69 -2
Rutgers 79 - Iowa 78 0.51 Rutgers 75 - Iowa 77 3
San Diego State 74 - Colorado State 61 0.781 San Diego State 67 - Colorado State 70 16
San Jose State 55 - Boise State 89 0.982 San Jose State 86 - Boise State 87 -33
SE Missouri State 69 - Tennessee State 68 0.537 SE Missouri State 83 - Tennessee State 79 -3
Seton Hall 77 - Butler 69 0.75 Seton Hall 68 - Butler 60 0
South Carolina 81 - Florida AM 60 0.925 South Carolina 78 - Florida AM 71 14
South Carolina State 65 - North Carolina AT 71 0.673 South Carolina State 86 - North Carolina AT 97 5
South Dakota 77 - Denver 63 0.871 South Dakota 93 - Denver 54 -25
South Florida 68 - Central Florida 76 0.746 South Florida 68 - Central Florida 61 -15
Southern California 79 - Utah 68 0.746 Southern California 64 - Utah 46 -7
Southern Miss 60 - Texas El Paso 69 0.735 Southern Miss 62 - Texas El Paso 77 6
Stephen F Austin 71 - New Orleans 62 0.742 Stephen F Austin 78 - New Orleans 67 -2
Tennessee 80 - Alabama 68 0.792 Tennessee 63 - Alabama 71 20
Tennessee Martin 63 - Belmont 80 0.865 Tennessee Martin 69 - Belmont 90 4
Texas AM 71 - Auburn 74 0.607 Texas AM 68 - Auburn 66 -5
Texas Tech 77 - Oklahoma State 68 0.753 Texas Tech 77 - Oklahoma State 82 14
Tulane 67 - East Carolina 72 0.666 Tulane 60 - East Carolina 56 -9
UC Santa Barbara 74 - Cal State Fullerton 64 0.748 UC Santa Barbara 65 - Cal State Fullerton 61 6
UCLA 73 - Colorado 75 0.561 UCLA 65 - Colorado 62 -5
UL Lafayette 69 - Texas State 65 0.654 UL Lafayette 59 - Texas State 71 16
UL Monroe 70 - Arkansas State 67 0.592 UL Monroe 62 - Arkansas State 55 -4
UMass Lowell 72 - NJ Tech 70 0.548 UMass Lowell 67 - NJ Tech 73 8
UNC Greensboro 69 - East Tennessee State 66 0.604 UNC Greensboro 61 - East Tennessee State 71 13
Vermont 75 - Albany 60 0.892 Vermont 62 - Albany 63 16
Virginia Military Institute 66 - Chattanooga 74 0.752 Virginia Military Institute 84 - Chattanooga 79 -13
Washington State 68 - Arizona 75 0.692 Washington State 82 - Arizona 86 -3
Weber State 75 - Utah Valley 69 0.685 Weber State 70 - Utah Valley 62 -2
Western Illinois 65 - North Dakota State 73 0.753 Western Illinois 50 - North Dakota State 68 10
Western Michigan 63 - Toledo 77 0.876 Western Michigan 59 - Toledo 70 -3
Wofford 75 - Samford 67 0.711 Wofford 94 - Samford 84 -2
Youngstown State 73 - Green Bay 72 0.521 Youngstown State 69 - Green Bay 79 11

GAMES OF 1-3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bucknell 70 - Navy 69 0.533 Bucknell 60 - Navy 63 4
Colgate 72 - Army 67 0.647 Colgate 73 - Army 75 7
Delaware 65 - College of Charleston 69 0.646 Delaware 59 - College of Charleston 66 3
Drake 76 - Southern Illinois 69 0.725 Drake 73 - Southern Illinois 55 -11
Evansville 66 - Northern Iowa 70 0.63 Evansville 70 - Northern Iowa 64 -10
George Washington 68 - Duquesne 77 0.765 George Washington 75 - Duquesne 73 -11
Georgia Tech 75 - Wake Forest 73 0.54 Georgia Tech 70 - Wake Forest 54 -14
Hartford 74 - Binghamton 60 0.888 Hartford 77 - Binghamton 74 11
Hofstra 79 - William and Mary 64 0.854 Hofstra 82 - William and Mary 73 6
James Madison 72 - Morgan State 69 0.61 James Madison 73 - Morgan State 80 10
Lafayette 72 - Lehigh 69 0.573 Lafayette 82 - Lehigh 70 -9
Maine 64 - New Hampshire 71 0.739 Maine 58 - New Hampshire 62 -3
Michigan 80 - Northwestern 70 0.781 Michigan 85 - Northwestern 66 -9
Minnesota 76 - Ohio State 75 0.52 Minnesota 77 - Ohio State 60 -16
Missouri State 77 - Indiana State 66 0.803 Missouri State 70 - Indiana State 66 7
North Dakota 67 - UMKC 66 0.537 North Dakota 53 - UMKC 77 25
Northeastern 72 - Elon 64 0.756 Northeastern 66 - Elon 58 0
Omaha 73 - Oral Roberts 75 0.579 Omaha 75 - Oral Roberts 86 9
Rhode Island 82 - Saint Josephs 70 0.819 Rhode Island 85 - Saint Josephs 77 4
Sacramento State 87 - Unranked 56 Sacramento State 85 - Unranked 54
Siena 72 - Monmouth 71 0.53 Siena 78 - Monmouth 77 0
South Carolina State 65 - North Carolina AT 71 0.673 South Carolina State 66 - North Carolina AT 73 1
South Dakota 77 - Denver 63 0.871 South Dakota 79 - Denver 57 -8
Southern Methodist 71 - Houston 76 0.655 Southern Methodist 60 - Houston 74 9
UMass Lowell 72 - NJ Tech 70 0.548 UMass Lowell 74 - NJ Tech 60 -12
Vermont 75 - Albany 60 0.892 Vermont 74 - Albany 66 7
Western Illinois 65 - North Dakota State 73 0.753 Western Illinois 67 - North Dakota State 78 3


Number of DI Games: 239
Number Correct: 162 = 67.7%
Expected Number Correct: 166.677 = 69.7%
Average Error: 9.78
Average Signed Error: 0.3

GAMES OF 1-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama State 62 - Jackson State 67 0.682 Alabama State 44 - Jackson State 60 11
Charleston Southern 56 - Winthrop 83 0.963 Charleston Southern 69 - Winthrop 85 -11
Coppin State 75 - Delaware State 65 0.75 Coppin State 86 - Delaware State 78 2
Drake 79 - Southern Illinois 65 0.885 Drake 86 - Southern Illinois 55 -17
Fresno State 71 - Wyoming 74 0.675 Fresno State 81 - Wyoming 61 -23
Gardner Webb 72 - Campbell 66 0.68 Gardner Webb 61 - Campbell 70 15
Holy Cross 61 - Boston 77 0.824 Holy Cross 76 - Boston 83 -9
Indiana 74 - Maryland 75 0.509 Indiana 63 - Maryland 55 -9
Montana 71 - Northern Colorado 63 0.727 Montana 56 - Northern Colorado 54 6
Oklahoma State 74 - West Virginia 73 0.523 Oklahoma State 84 - West Virginia 87 4
Oregon State 64 - Stanford 72 0.736 Oregon State 71 - Stanford 81 2
Radford 68 - Hampton 62 0.695 Radford 79 - Hampton 66 -7
San Diego State 72 - Colorado State 66 0.661 San Diego State 78 - Colorado State 65 -7
San Jose State 83 - Unranked 65 San Jose State 80 - Unranked 64
Siena 75 - Monmouth 72 0.61 Siena 76 - Monmouth 62 -11
South Carolina Upstate 67 - Longwood 66 0.538 South Carolina Upstate 71 - Longwood 69 -1
South Dakota State 94 - Unranked 55 South Dakota State 93 - Unranked 50

GAMES OF 1-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 75 - Florida 77 0.552 Alabama 86 - Florida 71 -17
Boston 79 - Holy Cross 59 0.874 Boston 66 - Holy Cross 68 22
Bowling Green 81 - Central Michigan 66 0.837 Bowling Green 90 - Central Michigan 69 -6
Charleston Southern 56 - Winthrop 83 0.963 Charleston Southern 76 - Winthrop 78 -25
Clemson 75 - NC State 67 0.76 Clemson 74 - NC State 70 4
Coppin State 75 - Delaware State 65 0.75 Coppin State 81 - Delaware State 77 6
Duquesne 66 - Davidson 73 0.683 Duquesne 48 - Davidson 61 6
Fordham 51 - Dayton 81 0.956 Fordham 55 - Dayton 54 -31
Gardner Webb 72 - Campbell 66 0.68 Gardner Webb 85 - Campbell 70 -9
James Madison 73 - Florida Atlantic 68 0.641 James Madison 79 - Florida Atlantic 70 -4
Kent State 70 - Toledo 71 0.502 Kent State 82 - Toledo 84 1
Kentucky 76 - Vanderbilt 68 0.761 Kentucky 77 - Vanderbilt 74 5
Marquette 71 - Connecticut 73 0.569 Marquette 54 - Connecticut 65 9
Miami 71 - North Carolina 75 0.638 Miami 65 - North Carolina 67 -2
Michigan State 73 - Rutgers 80 0.694 Michigan State 68 - Rutgers 45 -30
Mississippi State 67 - Missouri 77 0.778 Mississippi State 78 - Missouri 63 -25
Ohio 79 - Northern Illinois 58 0.86 Ohio 76 - Northern Illinois 73 18
Radford 68 - Hampton 62 0.695 Radford 76 - Hampton 65 -5
South Carolina Upstate 67 - Longwood 66 0.538 South Carolina Upstate 65 - Longwood 59 -5
Texas 83 - Iowa State 60 0.924 Texas 78 - Iowa State 72 17
Texas Christian 70 - Kansas 75 0.633 Texas Christian 64 - Kansas 93 24
Texas Tech 76 - Kansas State 60 0.895 Texas Tech 82 - Kansas State 71 5

GAMES OF 1-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Baylor 81 - Oklahoma 71 0.75 Baylor 76 - Oklahoma 61 -5
Boise State 79 - Air Force 55 0.899 Boise State 78 - Air Force 59 5
Butler 73 - Georgetown 71 0.569 Butler 63 - Georgetown 55 -6
Central Arkansas 75 - New Orleans 63 0.914 Central Arkansas 83 - New Orleans 79 8
Chattanooga 75 - Samford 69 0.665 Chattanooga 73 - Samford 68 1
Creighton 77 - Seton Hall 74 0.605 Creighton 89 - Seton Hall 53 -33
Duke 80 - Boston College 71 0.752 Duke 83 - Boston College 82 8
George Mason 63 - Virginia Commonwealth 77 0.887 George Mason 61 - Virginia Commonwealth 66 -9
Houston 78 - Wichita State 69 0.828 Houston 70 - Wichita State 63 2
Houston Baptist 63 - Abilene Christian 80 0.922 Houston Baptist 63 - Abilene Christian 66 -14
Louisiana State 80 - Georgia 72 0.715 Louisiana State 94 - Georgia 92 6
Louisville 75 - Virginia Tech 70 0.621 Louisville 73 - Virginia Tech 71 3
Michigan 81 - Minnesota 73 0.706 Michigan 82 - Minnesota 57 -17
Mississippi 73 - Auburn 72 0.537 Mississippi 72 - Auburn 61 -10
New Mexico 60 - Utah State 76 0.841 New Mexico 45 - Utah State 77 16
Nicholls State 76 - Lamar 65 0.771 Nicholls State 76 - Lamar 69 4
Northwestern State 73 - Incarnate Word 67 0.701 Northwestern State 67 - Incarnate Word 75 14
Richmond 76 - Rhode Island 73 0.585 Richmond 80 - Rhode Island 73 -4
Saint Bonaventure 85 - Saint Josephs 66 0.952 Saint Bonaventure 83 - Saint Josephs 57 -7
South Carolina 73 - Texas AM 69 0.599 South Carolina 78 - Texas AM 54 -20
South Florida 69 - Tulsa 72 0.596 South Florida 51 - Tulsa 61 7
Southeast Louisiana 65 - Sam Houston State 74 0.763 Southeast Louisiana 52 - Sam Houston State 70 9
Syracuse 78 - Pittsburgh 68 0.73 Syracuse 60 - Pittsburgh 63 13
Tennessee 78 - Arkansas 71 0.666 Tennessee 79 - Arkansas 74 2
Virginia 75 - Wake Forest 60 0.801 Virginia 70 - Wake Forest 61 6
Wofford 73 - UNC Greensboro 64 0.745 Wofford 75 - UNC Greensboro 84 18
Xavier 83 - Saint Johns 73 0.75 Xavier 69 - Saint Johns 61 2

GAMES OF 1-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 74 - Southern California 73 0.536 Arizona 73 - Southern California 87 15
Arizona State 73 - UCLA 78 0.656 Arizona State 75 - UCLA 81 1
Belmont 82 - SE Missouri State 62 0.945 Belmont 77 - SE Missouri State 66 9
Bryant 83 - Central Connecticut State 66 0.892 Bryant 93 - Central Connecticut State 68 -8
California 66 - Washington State 70 0.6 California 60 - Washington State 71 7
Colorado 72 - Oregon 74 0.541 Colorado 79 - Oregon 72 -9
Colorado State 80 - Nevada Las Vegas 64 0.833 Colorado State 74 - Nevada Las Vegas 71 13
Eastern Illinois 71 - Murray State 68 0.57 Eastern Illinois 74 - Murray State 68 -3
Eastern Kentucky 71 - Jacksonville State 68 0.582 Eastern Kentucky 69 - Jacksonville State 66 0
Gonzaga 84 - Brigham Young 70 0.856 Gonzaga 86 - Brigham Young 69 -3
Hofstra 74 - Northeastern 66 0.74 Hofstra 78 - Northeastern 81 11
LIU Brooklyn 72 - Saint Francis Penn 70 0.528 LIU Brooklyn 78 - Saint Francis Penn 75 -1
Maryland 79 - Iowa 80 0.535 Maryland 67 - Iowa 89 21
Merrimack 69 - Sacred Heart 57 0.744 Merrimack 97 - Sacred Heart 90 5
Morehead State 71 - Tennessee Tech 63 0.743 Morehead State 57 - Tennessee Tech 54 5
Northern Arizona 70 - Idaho State 67 0.596 Northern Arizona 69 - Idaho State 73 7
Northern Colorado 70 - Montana State 67 0.579 Northern Colorado 67 - Montana State 79 15
Northwestern 73 - Illinois 80 0.692 Northwestern 56 - Illinois 81 18
Saint Francis Brooklyn 64 - Mt St Marys 71 0.685 Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 - Mt St Marys 55 -22
San Diego State 77 - Nevada 64 0.81 San Diego State 65 - Nevada 60 8
San Francisco 80 - Portland 62 0.874 San Francisco 88 - Portland 64 -6
Southern Methodist 80 - Cincinnati 69 0.832 Southern Methodist 69 - Cincinnati 76 18
Southern Utah 82 - Idaho 60 0.947 Southern Utah 85 - Idaho 80 17
Stanford 76 - Washington 61 0.825 Stanford 91 - Washington 75 -1
Tennessee State 69 - Tennessee Martin 68 0.551 Tennessee State 74 - Tennessee Martin 62 -11
Texas Pan American 86 - Unranked 58 Texas Pan American 96 - Unranked 67
Wisconsin 76 - Indiana 68 0.719 Wisconsin 80 - Indiana 73 1

GAMES OF 1-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Southern Miss 57 0.87 Alabama Birmingham 72 - Southern Miss 60 7
Appalachian State 70 - Georgia Southern 66 0.582 Appalachian State 66 - Georgia Southern 63 1
Bellarmine 69 - Lipscomb 70 0.55 Bellarmine 72 - Lipscomb 77 4
Boise State 79 - Air Force 55 0.899 Boise State 80 - Air Force 69 13
Bryant 83 - Central Connecticut State 66 0.892 Bryant 76 - Central Connecticut State 64 5
Cal State Bakersfield 77 - Cal Poly 61 0.874 Cal State Bakersfield 62 - Cal Poly 49 3
Cal State Fullerton 73 - Long Beach State 72 0.542 Cal State Fullerton 80 - Long Beach State 82 3
Cleveland State 68 - Northern Kentucky 66 0.549 Cleveland State 58 - Northern Kentucky 44 -12
Coastal Carolina 74 - South Alabama 67 0.662 Coastal Carolina 78 - South Alabama 65 -6
Davidson 70 - Dayton 68 0.561 Davidson 78 - Dayton 89 13
Fresno State 77 - San Jose State 66 0.746 Fresno State 79 - San Jose State 64 -4
Green Bay 72 - Oakland 73 0.501 Green Bay 84 - Oakland 81 -4
IPFW 66 - Illinois Chicago 74 0.758 IPFW 96 - Illinois Chicago 89 -15
Jacksonville 72 - North Florida 69 0.592 Jacksonville 66 - North Florida 65 2
Liberty 79 - Kennesaw St 54 0.961 Liberty 69 - Kennesaw St 63 19
LIU Brooklyn 72 - Saint Francis Penn 70 0.528 LIU Brooklyn 71 - Saint Francis Penn 58 -11
Merrimack 69 - Sacred Heart 57 0.744 Merrimack 62 - Sacred Heart 68 18
Michigan State 74 - Purdue 77 0.602 Michigan State 54 - Purdue 55 -2
Middle Tennessee 67 - Florida International 74 0.697 Middle Tennessee 55 - Florida International 68 6
Milwaukee 71 - IUPUI 59 0.909 Milwaukee 94 - IUPUI 70 -12
New Mexico 60 - Utah State 76 0.841 New Mexico 46 - Utah State 82 20
Niagara 74 - Rider 62 0.799 Niagara 70 - Rider 76 18
North Alabama 68 - Stetson 72 0.61 North Alabama 77 - Stetson 86 5
North Dakota State 75 - Omaha 64 0.806 North Dakota State 71 - Omaha 69 9
Old Dominion 74 - Florida Atlantic 61 0.872 Old Dominion 71 - Florida Atlantic 67 9
Oral Roberts 80 - North Dakota 66 0.856 Oral Roberts 71 - North Dakota 72 15
Quinnipiac 71 - Manhattan 58 0.805 Quinnipiac 84 - Manhattan 79 8
Saint Francis Brooklyn 64 - Mt St Marys 71 0.685 Saint Francis Brooklyn 67 - Mt St Marys 55 -19
South Dakota State 84 - Western Illinois 62 0.935 South Dakota State 83 - Western Illinois 77 16
Stephen F Austin 82 - Unranked 56 Stephen F Austin 87 - Unranked 71
Tarleton State 64 - Grand Canyon 74 0.867 Tarleton State 72 - Grand Canyon 75 -7
Texas El Paso 74 - Rice 67 0.693 Texas El Paso 101 - Rice 89 -5
Texas San Antonio 62 - North Texas 74 0.834 Texas San Antonio 70 - North Texas 77 -5
Toledo 75 - Ohio 69 0.623 Toledo 95 - Ohio 78 -11
UC Riverside 69 - Hawaii 61 0.706 UC Riverside 83 - Hawaii 88 13
UL Lafayette 69 - Arkansas Little Rock 73 0.626 UL Lafayette 66 - Arkansas Little Rock 64 -6
UL Monroe 65 - Texas Arlington 71 0.701 UL Monroe 64 - Texas Arlington 77 7
UMKC 66 - South Dakota 68 0.551 UMKC 64 - South Dakota 66 0
Utah Valley 72 - Cal Baptist 77 0.634 Utah Valley 77 - Cal Baptist 50 -32
Western Kentucky 75 - Louisiana Tech 69 0.682 Western Kentucky 66 - Louisiana Tech 64 4
Wright State 80 - Youngstown State 62 0.848 Wright State 72 - Youngstown State 74 20

GAMES OF 1-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Southern Miss 57 0.87 Alabama Birmingham 62 - Southern Miss 58 15
Appalachian State 70 - Georgia Southern 66 0.582 Appalachian State 77 - Georgia Southern 71 -2
Arizona 77 - UCLA 72 0.656 Arizona 76 - UCLA 81 10
Arizona State 70 - Southern California 79 0.722 Arizona State 64 - Southern California 73 0
Arkansas 81 - Georgia 72 0.731 Arkansas 99 - Georgia 69 -21
Arkansas Pine Bluff 72 - Alabama State 61 0.77 Arkansas Pine Bluff 91 - Alabama State 82 2
Auburn 73 - Alabama 77 0.591 Auburn 90 - Alabama 94 0
Bellarmine 69 - Lipscomb 70 0.55 Bellarmine 58 - Lipscomb 65 6
Belmont 82 - Tennessee Martin 59 0.933 Belmont 89 - Tennessee Martin 69 3
Binghamton 64 - Vermont 74 0.793 Binghamton 60 - Vermont 76 6
Boston 68 - Colgate 76 0.634 Boston 79 - Colgate 86 -1
Boston College 66 - Virginia 77 0.799 Boston College 49 - Virginia 61 1
Bucknell 70 - Lafayette 72 0.583 Bucknell 60 - Lafayette 83 21
Buffalo 79 - Ball State 70 0.773 Buffalo 86 - Ball State 69 -8
Butler 66 - Connecticut 76 0.81 Butler 60 - Connecticut 72 2
Cal State Bakersfield 77 - Cal Poly 61 0.874 Cal State Bakersfield 67 - Cal Poly 50 -1
Cal State Fullerton 73 - Long Beach State 72 0.542 Cal State Fullerton 75 - Long Beach State 72 -2
California 70 - Washington 66 0.587 California 84 - Washington 78 -2
Central Arkansas 70 - Sam Houston State 74 0.653 Central Arkansas 80 - Sam Houston State 91 7
Central Michigan 68 - Bowling Green 79 0.764 Central Michigan 65 - Bowling Green 93 17
Charleston Southern 57 - Radford 66 0.817 Charleston Southern 64 - Radford 79 6
Charlotte 85 - Unranked 52 Charlotte 72 - Unranked 75
Cleveland State 68 - Northern Kentucky 66 0.549 Cleveland State 74 - Northern Kentucky 71 -1
Coastal Carolina 74 - South Alabama 67 0.662 Coastal Carolina 83 - South Alabama 69 -7
College of Charleston 65 - Drexel 71 0.739 College of Charleston 61 - Drexel 60 -7
Colorado State 80 - Nevada Las Vegas 64 0.833 Colorado State 83 - Nevada Las Vegas 80 13
Creighton 85 - Saint Johns 72 0.853 Creighton 97 - Saint Johns 79 -5
DePaul 70 - Seton Hall 83 0.864 DePaul 68 - Seton Hall 76 -5
Duke 76 - Wake Forest 67 0.694 Duke 79 - Wake Forest 68 -2
Duquesne 78 - Fordham 53 0.926 Duquesne 48 - Fordham 45 22
East Carolina 69 - South Florida 70 0.527 East Carolina 63 - South Florida 69 5
Eastern Illinois 73 - Austin Peay 70 0.592 Eastern Illinois 71 - Austin Peay 74 6
Eastern Kentucky 78 - Tennessee Tech 63 0.879 Eastern Kentucky 90 - Tennessee Tech 80 5
Eastern Michigan 59 - Akron 83 0.925 Eastern Michigan 71 - Akron 59 -36
Evansville 74 - Illinois State 67 0.717 Evansville 57 - Illinois State 48 -2
Fairfield 57 - Siena 76 0.888 Fairfield 58 - Siena 74 -3
Florida 80 - Kentucky 67 0.822 Florida 58 - Kentucky 76 31
George Mason 67 - Richmond 77 0.851 George Mason 57 - Richmond 77 10
Grambling State 69 - Southern 64 0.63 Grambling State 55 - Southern 61 11
Green Bay 72 - Oakland 73 0.501 Green Bay 87 - Oakland 78 -10
Hampton 68 - UNC Asheville 70 0.582 Hampton 73 - UNC Asheville 71 -4
Holy Cross 62 - Army 78 0.812 Holy Cross 68 - Army 83 -1
Houston 80 - Tulane 57 0.965 Houston 71 - Tulane 50 2
Iowa State 64 - Texas Tech 76 0.827 Iowa State 64 - Texas Tech 91 15
IPFW 66 - Illinois Chicago 74 0.758 IPFW 88 - Illinois Chicago 55 -41
Jacksonville 72 - North Florida 69 0.592 Jacksonville 68 - North Florida 70 5
Kansas 78 - Oklahoma 72 0.653 Kansas 63 - Oklahoma 59 2
Kansas State 66 - Oklahoma State 77 0.827 Kansas State 54 - Oklahoma State 70 5
Kent State 78 - Western Michigan 60 0.929 Kent State 80 - Western Michigan 54 -8
Lamar 73 - Houston Baptist 71 0.555 Lamar 71 - Houston Baptist 65 -4
Lehigh 69 - Navy 74 0.686 Lehigh 61 - Navy 69 3
Liberty 79 - Kennesaw St 54 0.961 Liberty 76 - Kennesaw St 47 -4
Longwood 66 - Campbell 67 0.528 Longwood 58 - Campbell 64 5
Massachusetts 76 - La Salle 73 0.589 Massachusetts 83 - La Salle 67 -13
Mcneese State 70 - Northwestern State 77 0.677 Mcneese State 75 - Northwestern State 78 -4
Miami OH 71 - Northern Illinois 60 0.76 Miami OH 70 - Northern Illinois 58 -1
Middle Tennessee 67 - Florida International 74 0.697 Middle Tennessee 67 - Florida International 56 -18
Milwaukee 71 - IUPUI 59 0.909 Milwaukee 71 - IUPUI 63 4
Mississippi 71 - Louisiana State 76 0.642 Mississippi 61 - Louisiana State 75 9
Monmouth 77 - Marist 66 0.811 Monmouth 80 - Marist 64 -5
Montana 86 - Unranked 54 Montana 84 - Unranked 67
Morehead State 64 - Jacksonville State 68 0.631 Morehead State 56 - Jacksonville State 55 -5
NC State 77 - Miami 69 0.747 NC State 59 - Miami 64 13
New Hampshire 67 - UMBC 69 0.558 New Hampshire 54 - UMBC 69 13
New Orleans 67 - Incarnate Word 65 0.591 New Orleans 86 - Incarnate Word 64 -20
Niagara 74 - Rider 62 0.799 Niagara 66 - Rider 55 1
Nicholls State 75 - Southeast Louisiana 65 0.749 Nicholls State 87 - Southeast Louisiana 67 -10
NJ Tech 72 - Maine 65 0.749 NJ Tech 63 - Maine 54 -2
Norfolk State 66 - Morgan State 69 0.581 Norfolk State 74 - Morgan State 78 1
North Alabama 68 - Stetson 72 0.61 North Alabama 73 - Stetson 66 -11
North Dakota State 75 - Omaha 64 0.806 North Dakota State 80 - Omaha 66 -3
Northeastern 68 - Hofstra 72 0.625 Northeastern 67 - Hofstra 56 -15
Northern Arizona 70 - Idaho State 67 0.596 Northern Arizona 70 - Idaho State 76 9
Northern Colorado 70 - Montana State 67 0.579 Northern Colorado 74 - Montana State 76 5
Old Dominion 74 - Florida Atlantic 61 0.872 Old Dominion 64 - Florida Atlantic 55 4
Oral Roberts 80 - North Dakota 66 0.856 Oral Roberts 74 - North Dakota 57 -3
Portland 60 - Gonzaga 92 0.993 Portland 88 - Gonzaga 116 -4
Portland State 83 - Unranked 60 Portland State 72 - Unranked 75
Quinnipiac 71 - Manhattan 58 0.805 Quinnipiac 42 - Manhattan 45 16
Rutgers 77 - Ohio State 72 0.627 Rutgers 68 - Ohio State 79 16
Saint Josephs 76 - Albany 69 0.792 Saint Josephs 67 - Albany 64 4
Saint Marys 74 - Santa Clara 59 0.852 Saint Marys 64 - Santa Clara 66 17
San Diego State 77 - Nevada 64 0.81 San Diego State 69 - Nevada 67 11
Seattle 84 - Unranked 58 Seattle 98 - Unranked 63
South Dakota State 84 - Western Illinois 62 0.935 South Dakota State 92 - Western Illinois 63 -7
Southern Utah 82 - Idaho 60 0.947 Southern Utah 83 - Idaho 67 6
Stanford 72 - Washington State 64 0.697 Stanford 75 - Washington State 60 -7
Syracuse 82 - Georgetown 67 0.853 Syracuse 74 - Georgetown 69 10
Tarleton State 64 - Grand Canyon 74 0.867 Tarleton State 48 - Grand Canyon 59 1
Texas AM 64 - Tennessee 76 0.767 Texas AM 54 - Tennessee 68 2
Texas Christian 70 - Baylor 78 0.742 Texas Christian 49 - Baylor 67 10
Texas El Paso 74 - Rice 67 0.693 Texas El Paso 68 - Rice 71 10
Texas San Antonio 62 - North Texas 74 0.834 Texas San Antonio 77 - North Texas 69 -20
The Citadel 71 - Chattanooga 75 0.664 The Citadel 92 - Chattanooga 87 -9
UC Riverside 69 - Hawaii 61 0.706 UC Riverside 70 - Hawaii 68 6
UC San Diego 58 - UC Irvine 63 0.623 UC San Diego 65 - UC Irvine 79 9
UL Lafayette 69 - Arkansas Little Rock 73 0.626 UL Lafayette 76 - Arkansas Little Rock 78 -2
UL Monroe 65 - Texas Arlington 71 0.701 UL Monroe 74 - Texas Arlington 75 -5
UMass Lowell 66 - Hartford 69 0.576 UMass Lowell 71 - Hartford 62 -12
UMKC 66 - South Dakota 68 0.551 UMKC 62 - South Dakota 68 4
UNC Greensboro 66 - Wofford 71 0.64 UNC Greensboro 45 - Wofford 48 -2
Utah 66 - Oregon 78 0.839 Utah 73 - Oregon 79 -6
Utah Valley 72 - Cal Baptist 77 0.634 Utah Valley 81 - Cal Baptist 77 -9
Valparaiso 67 - Missouri State 76 0.733 Valparaiso 68 - Missouri State 81 4
Vanderbilt 71 - Mississippi State 75 0.652 Vanderbilt 81 - Mississippi State 84 -1
Virginia Commonwealth 75 - Rhode Island 69 0.672 Virginia Commonwealth 68 - Rhode Island 83 21
West Virginia 70 - Texas 73 0.599 West Virginia 70 - Texas 72 -1
Western Kentucky 75 - Louisiana Tech 69 0.682 Western Kentucky 58 - Louisiana Tech 63 11
William and Mary 69 - Delaware 65 0.631 William and Mary 67 - Delaware 62 -1
Winthrop 82 - Gardner Webb 66 0.866 Winthrop 75 - Gardner Webb 65 6
Wright State 80 - Youngstown State 62 0.848 Wright State 93 - Youngstown State 55 -20

GAMES OF 1-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 80 - Holy Cross 60 0.861 Army 61 - Holy Cross 70 29
Binghamton 64 - Vermont 74 0.793 Binghamton 44 - Vermont 84 30
Boston 68 - Colgate 76 0.634 Boston 45 - Colgate 89 36
Charleston Southern 57 - Radford 66 0.817 Charleston Southern 48 - Radford 68 11
College of Charleston 65 - Drexel 71 0.739 College of Charleston 73 - Drexel 68 -11
Evansville 74 - Illinois State 67 0.717 Evansville 68 - Illinois State 73 12
Fairfield 57 - Siena 76 0.888 Fairfield 68 - Siena 75 -12
Florida AM 79 - South Carolina State 59 0.921 Florida AM 70 - South Carolina State 68 18
Fresno State 77 - San Jose State 66 0.746 Fresno State 80 - San Jose State 65 -4
Hampton 68 - UNC Asheville 70 0.582 Hampton 77 - UNC Asheville 85 6
Illinois 80 - Maryland 73 0.672 Illinois 63 - Maryland 66 10
Indiana State 64 - Loyola Ill 73 0.823 Indiana State 76 - Loyola Ill 71 -14
Iowa 82 - Minnesota 78 0.616 Iowa 86 - Minnesota 71 -11
James Madison 87 - Unranked 60 James Madison 100 - Unranked 76
Lafayette 74 - Bucknell 68 0.719 Lafayette 87 - Bucknell 76 -5
Longwood 66 - Campbell 67 0.528 Longwood 78 - Campbell 69 -10
Loyola Marymount 68 - San Francisco 69 0.509 Loyola Marymount 68 - San Francisco 60 -9
Monmouth 77 - Marist 66 0.811 Monmouth 72 - Marist 62 1
Navy 76 - Lehigh 67 0.801 Navy 73 - Lehigh 58 -6
Nebraska 68 - Indiana 79 0.763 Nebraska 76 - Indiana 84 -3
New Hampshire 67 - UMBC 69 0.558 New Hampshire 66 - UMBC 68 0
NJ Tech 72 - Maine 65 0.749 NJ Tech 41 - Maine 45 11
Norfolk State 66 - Morgan State 69 0.581 Norfolk State 89 - Morgan State 85 -7
Northern Iowa 66 - Bradley 72 0.675 Northern Iowa 78 - Bradley 72 -12
UMass Lowell 66 - Hartford 69 0.576 UMass Lowell 58 - Hartford 75 14
Valparaiso 67 - Missouri State 76 0.733 Valparaiso 68 - Missouri State 78 1
Virginia Tech 81 - Notre Dame 68 0.858 Virginia Tech 77 - Notre Dame 63 -1
Wichita State 81 - Cincinnati 70 0.88 Wichita State 82 - Cincinnati 76 5
Winthrop 82 - Gardner Webb 66 0.866 Winthrop 91 - Gardner Webb 83 8
Xavier 78 - Providence 72 0.657 Xavier 74 - Providence 73 5


Number of DI Games: 266
Number Correct: 198 = 74.4%
Expected Number Correct: 193.04 = 72.5%
Average Error: 9.16
Average Signed Error: 0.95

GAMES OF 1-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
DePaul 68 - Connecticut 82 0.941 DePaul 53 - Connecticut 60 -7
Indiana State 67 - Loyola Ill 71 0.634 Indiana State 48 - Loyola Ill 58 6
Northern Iowa 69 - Bradley 71 0.545 Northern Iowa 73 - Bradley 75 0
Prairie View 72 - Texas Southern 71 0.521 Prairie View 71 - Texas Southern 67 -3
Southern Methodist 80 - Temple 69 0.826 Southern Methodist 79 - Temple 68 0
Utah 67 - Colorado 76 0.762 Utah 58 - Colorado 65 -2
Wyoming 67 - Boise State 80 0.797 Wyoming 60 - Boise State 83 10

GAMES OF 1-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Boston College 72 - Miami 77 0.647 Boston College 84 - Miami 62 -27
Bowling Green 78 - Ball State 64 0.884 Bowling Green 64 - Ball State 88 38
Central Michigan 68 - Kent State 78 0.753 Central Michigan 85 - Kent State 94 -1
Davidson 82 - Saint Josephs 67 0.877 Davidson 80 - Saint Josephs 66 1
Florida 75 - Mississippi 70 0.637 Florida 72 - Mississippi 63 -4
Grambling State 73 - Alcorn State 68 0.601 Grambling State 79 - Alcorn State 74 0
Kentucky 73 - Alabama 76 0.584 Kentucky 65 - Alabama 85 17
Marquette 75 - Providence 73 0.573 Marquette 79 - Providence 69 -8
Michigan 77 - Wisconsin 71 0.65 Michigan 77 - Wisconsin 54 -17
Mississippi Valley State 70 - Alabama State 69 0.531 Mississippi Valley State 51 - Alabama State 64 14
Nevada Las Vegas 92 - Unranked 58 Nevada Las Vegas 95 - Unranked 34
North Carolina 75 - Syracuse 73 0.559 North Carolina 81 - Syracuse 75 -4
Northern Illinois 59 - Akron 75 0.824 Northern Illinois 67 - Akron 65 -18
Ohio 74 - Miami OH 65 0.67 Ohio 78 - Miami OH 61 -8
Oklahoma 75 - Texas Christian 69 0.684 Oklahoma 82 - Texas Christian 46 -30
Oklahoma State 73 - Kansas 78 0.624 Oklahoma State 75 - Kansas 70 -10
Saint Johns 77 - Butler 73 0.618 Saint Johns 69 - Butler 57 -8
Southern California 80 - UC Riverside 60 0.911 Southern California 67 - UC Riverside 62 15
Toledo 81 - Eastern Michigan 62 0.833 Toledo 96 - Eastern Michigan 63 -14
Virginia Tech 78 - Duke 72 0.699 Virginia Tech 74 - Duke 67 -1
Western Michigan 65 - Buffalo 80 0.888 Western Michigan 69 - Buffalo 85 1

GAMES OF 1-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Chattanooga 70 - Mercer 71 0.511 Chattanooga 83 - Mercer 80 -4
Dayton 74 - Duquesne 63 0.795 Dayton 72 - Duquesne 63 2
Dixie State 70 - New Mexico 67 0.605 Dixie State 63 - New Mexico 72 12
Florida State 78 - NC State 72 0.706 Florida State 105 - NC State 73 -26
Fordham 54 - Saint Bonaventure 78 0.903 Fordham 54 - Saint Bonaventure 68 -10
George Mason 70 - La Salle 69 0.508 George Mason 75 - La Salle 42 -32
George Washington 64 - Virginia Commonwealth 81 0.891 George Washington 77 - Virginia Commonwealth 84 -10
Georgia 77 - Auburn 75 0.575 Georgia 77 - Auburn 95 20
Incarnate Word 72 - Mcneese State 66 0.677 Incarnate Word 83 - Mcneese State 61 -16
Louisiana State 78 - Arkansas 77 0.55 Louisiana State 92 - Arkansas 76 -15
Massachusetts 76 - Rhode Island 79 0.601 Massachusetts 80 - Rhode Island 78 -5
Mississippi State 75 - Texas AM 67 0.706 Mississippi State 55 - Texas AM 56 9
Norfolk State 85 - Unranked 56 Norfolk State 80 - Unranked 58
Northwestern State 68 - Nicholls State 77 0.746 Northwestern State 66 - Nicholls State 76 1
Ohio State 78 - Northwestern 71 0.696 Ohio State 81 - Northwestern 71 -3
Sam Houston State 77 - Lamar 62 0.892 Sam Houston State 96 - Lamar 71 -10
Southeast Louisiana 65 - Texas AM CC 66 0.531 Southeast Louisiana 76 - Texas AM CC 63 -14
Stephen F Austin 71 - Central Arkansas 67 0.62 Stephen F Austin 95 - Central Arkansas 69 -22
Texas 75 - Texas Tech 68 0.702 Texas 77 - Texas Tech 79 9
The Citadel 73 - Furman 81 0.702 The Citadel 88 - Furman 94 -2
Virginia 77 - Notre Dame 63 0.915 Virginia 80 - Notre Dame 68 2
Virginia Military Institute 67 - Wofford 74 0.722 Virginia Military Institute 78 - Wofford 80 -5
Wake Forest 63 - Louisville 78 0.807 Wake Forest 65 - Louisville 77 -3
Wichita State 75 - Tulsa 72 0.645 Wichita State 72 - Tulsa 53 -16
Wyoming 67 - Boise State 80 0.797 Wyoming 70 - Boise State 90 7

GAMES OF 1-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Campbell 70 - Presbyterian 64 0.701 Campbell 48 - Presbyterian 46 4
Colorado 81 - California 61 0.914 Colorado 89 - California 60 -9
Eastern Illinois 68 - Morehead State 67 0.537 Eastern Illinois 61 - Morehead State 87 27
Eastern Michigan 84 - Unranked 58 Eastern Michigan 67 - Unranked 56
Eastern Washington 75 - Southern Utah 70 0.711 Eastern Washington 75 - Southern Utah 63 -7
Florida International 77 - Florida Atlantic 65 0.819 Florida International 79 - Florida Atlantic 81 14
Gonzaga 94 - Pepperdine 64 0.943 Gonzaga 95 - Pepperdine 70 5
Idaho 63 - Northern Colorado 71 0.731 Idaho 54 - Northern Colorado 74 12
Indiana 74 - Purdue 72 0.58 Indiana 69 - Purdue 81 14
Jacksonville State 72 - Tennessee State 59 0.907 Jacksonville State 65 - Tennessee State 64 12
Montana 73 - Northern Arizona 60 0.875 Montana 67 - Northern Arizona 56 2
Montana State 76 - Portland State 67 0.711 Montana State 71 - Portland State 64 2
Mt St Marys 66 - Merrimack 65 0.514 Mt St Marys 77 - Merrimack 57 -19
Oregon State 67 - Arizona 78 0.807 Oregon State 64 - Arizona 98 23
Pacific 67 - Santa Clara 66 0.51 Pacific 79 - Santa Clara 58 -20
Portland 66 - San Francisco 78 0.805 Portland 63 - San Francisco 79 4
Sacred Heart 73 - Central Connecticut State 67 0.631 Sacred Heart 65 - Central Connecticut State 48 -11
Saint Francis Penn 66 - Bryant 78 0.79 Saint Francis Penn 89 - Bryant 82 -19
Saint Marys 68 - Brigham Young 69 0.501 Saint Marys 52 - Brigham Young 62 9
Samford 69 - UNC Greensboro 72 0.58 Samford 63 - UNC Greensboro 87 21
San Jose State 58 - Colorado State 86 0.936 San Jose State 57 - Colorado State 90 5
South Carolina Upstate 70 - Hampton 66 0.637 South Carolina Upstate 68 - Hampton 69 5
Southern California 85 - Washington 60 0.925 Southern California 95 - Washington 68 -2
Temple 69 - Central Florida 75 0.709 Temple 62 - Central Florida 55 -13
Tennessee Tech 62 - Belmont 78 0.914 Tennessee Tech 67 - Belmont 88 5
UCLA 77 - Washington State 66 0.823 UCLA 91 - Washington State 61 -19
UNC Asheville 72 - Charleston Southern 60 0.85 UNC Asheville 92 - Charleston Southern 54 -26
Utah 68 - Stanford 73 0.648 Utah 79 - Stanford 65 -19
Utah State 68 - San Diego State 71 0.571 Utah State 57 - San Diego State 45 -15
Wagner 66 - LIU Brooklyn 68 0.538 Wagner 66 - LIU Brooklyn 77 9
Winthrop 82 - Longwood 61 0.935 Winthrop 72 - Longwood 61 10

GAMES OF 1-15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Texas State 66 0.701 Arkansas Little Rock 59 - Texas State 63 9
Arkansas State 65 - UL Monroe 69 0.631 Arkansas State 74 - UL Monroe 72 -6
Buffalo 75 - Bowling Green 76 0.515 Buffalo 69 - Bowling Green 76 6
Cal Baptist 70 - Tarleton State 68 0.543 Cal Baptist 83 - Tarleton State 74 -7
Cal Poly 58 - UC Riverside 74 0.927 Cal Poly 51 - UC Riverside 86 19
Campbell 70 - Presbyterian 64 0.701 Campbell 73 - Presbyterian 51 -16
Charlotte 64 - Alabama Birmingham 69 0.649 Charlotte 37 - Alabama Birmingham 61 19
Delaware 63 - Hofstra 74 0.851 Delaware 74 - Hofstra 56 -29
Denver 64 - Oral Roberts 82 0.925 Denver 84 - Oral Roberts 88 -14
Detroit 72 - Green Bay 74 0.587 Detroit 86 - Green Bay 61 -27
Florida Gulf Coast 75 - Bellarmine 62 0.858 Florida Gulf Coast 60 - Bellarmine 74 27
Georgia Southern 68 - Troy 66 0.561 Georgia Southern 67 - Troy 64 -1
Grand Canyon 90 - Unranked 54 Grand Canyon 121 - Unranked 62
Hawaii 72 - Cal State Bakersfield 66 0.683 Hawaii 55 - Cal State Bakersfield 60 11
Illinois Chicago 68 - Robert Morris 71 0.561 Illinois Chicago 67 - Robert Morris 53 -17
Kennesaw St 67 - North Alabama 66 0.542 Kennesaw St 43 - North Alabama 66 24
Lipscomb 74 - North Florida 67 0.747 Lipscomb 84 - North Florida 72 -5
Louisiana Tech 77 - Texas San Antonio 63 0.836 Louisiana Tech 77 - Texas San Antonio 66 3
Manhattan 61 - Niagara 68 0.707 Manhattan 58 - Niagara 49 -16
Marist 69 - Fairfield 60 0.732 Marist 73 - Fairfield 63 -1
Maryland 97 - Unranked 49 Maryland 100 - Unranked 58
Milwaukee 75 - IPFW 68 0.675 Milwaukee 72 - IPFW 81 16
Monmouth 77 - Quinnipiac 61 0.884 Monmouth 92 - Quinnipiac 80 4
Mt St Marys 66 - Merrimack 65 0.514 Mt St Marys 63 - Merrimack 52 -10
Nevada 75 - Fresno State 66 0.751 Nevada 73 - Fresno State 57 -7
North Dakota 63 - North Dakota State 71 0.707 North Dakota 45 - North Dakota State 62 9
North Texas 68 - Texas El Paso 67 0.551 North Texas 63 - Texas El Paso 33 -29
Northern Kentucky 72 - IUPUI 61 0.835 Northern Kentucky 69 - IUPUI 74 16
Oakland 73 - Youngstown State 72 0.501 Oakland 82 - Youngstown State 65 -16
Rice 70 - Old Dominion 71 0.551 Rice 69 - Old Dominion 59 -11
Rider 61 - Siena 78 0.88 Rider 69 - Siena 78 -8
Rutgers 70 - Wisconsin 76 0.649 Rutgers 54 - Wisconsin 60 0
Saint Bonaventure 77 - Duquesne 60 0.913 Saint Bonaventure 62 - Duquesne 48 3
Saint Francis Penn 66 - Bryant 78 0.79 Saint Francis Penn 63 - Bryant 72 -3
Seattle 69 - Utah Valley 68 0.521 Seattle 92 - Utah Valley 93 2
South Alabama 67 - Appalachian State 69 0.556 South Alabama 73 - Appalachian State 64 -11
South Carolina Upstate 70 - Hampton 66 0.637 South Carolina Upstate 74 - Hampton 84 14
Southern Miss 64 - Middle Tennessee 62 0.543 Southern Miss 84 - Middle Tennessee 54 -28
Stetson 62 - Liberty 79 0.858 Stetson 65 - Liberty 59 -23
Texas Arlington 70 - UL Lafayette 69 0.538 Texas Arlington 91 - UL Lafayette 86 -4
Texas Pan American 75 - Dixie State 69 0.731 Texas Pan American 82 - Dixie State 49 -27
UC Santa Barbara 80 - UC San Diego 61 0.956 UC Santa Barbara 69 - UC San Diego 52 2
UNC Asheville 72 - Charleston Southern 60 0.85 UNC Asheville 83 - Charleston Southern 75 4
Wagner 66 - LIU Brooklyn 68 0.538 Wagner 76 - LIU Brooklyn 74 -4
Western Kentucky 72 - Marshall 73 0.512 Western Kentucky 81 - Marshall 73 -9
Winthrop 82 - Longwood 61 0.935 Winthrop 70 - Longwood 50 1
Wright State 71 - Cleveland State 63 0.663 Wright State 64 - Cleveland State 66 10

GAMES OF 1-16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 78 - Southeast Louisiana 55 0.939 Abilene Christian 76 - Southeast Louisiana 42 -11
Air Force 68 - Wyoming 69 0.552 Air Force 72 - Wyoming 69 -4
Akron 69 - Toledo 74 0.619 Akron 95 - Toledo 94 -6
Alabama 78 - Arkansas 76 0.553 Alabama 90 - Arkansas 59 -29
Alabama AM 82 - Alabama State 57 0.948 Alabama AM 70 - Alabama State 63 18
Albany 68 - NJ Tech 67 0.509 Albany 83 - NJ Tech 75 -7
Alcorn State 83 - Mississippi Valley State 67 0.806 Alcorn State 71 - Mississippi Valley State 59 4
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Texas State 66 0.701 Arkansas Little Rock 56 - Texas State 67 16
Arkansas State 65 - UL Monroe 69 0.631 Arkansas State 93 - UL Monroe 72 -25
Auburn 73 - Kentucky 75 0.55 Auburn 66 - Kentucky 59 -9
Ball State 74 - Northern Illinois 61 0.871 Ball State 78 - Northern Illinois 58 -7
Binghamton 64 - UMass Lowell 72 0.683 Binghamton 78 - UMass Lowell 92 6
Boston 68 - Army 72 0.599 Boston 59 - Army 79 16
Bradley 72 - Evansville 63 0.78 Bradley 69 - Evansville 60 0
Bucknell 68 - Lehigh 69 0.53 Bucknell 75 - Lehigh 70 -6
Butler 67 - Creighton 81 0.851 Butler 70 - Creighton 66 -18
Cal Baptist 70 - Tarleton State 68 0.543 Cal Baptist 73 - Tarleton State 67 -4
Cal Poly 58 - UC Riverside 74 0.927 Cal Poly 53 - UC Riverside 70 1
Cal State Fullerton 69 - Cal State Northridge 72 0.601 Cal State Fullerton 85 - Cal State Northridge 86 -2
Central Arkansas 71 - Nicholls State 74 0.606 Central Arkansas 72 - Nicholls State 74 -1
Central Michigan 72 - Eastern Michigan 71 0.526 Central Michigan 75 - Eastern Michigan 64 -10
Charlotte 64 - Alabama Birmingham 69 0.649 Charlotte 70 - Alabama Birmingham 55 -20
Chattanooga 68 - Wofford 70 0.562 Chattanooga 59 - Wofford 77 16
Clemson 70 - Virginia 64 0.7 Clemson 50 - Virginia 85 41
Colgate 84 - Holy Cross 63 0.844 Colgate 95 - Holy Cross 55 -19
College of Charleston 64 - Northeastern 70 0.696 College of Charleston 62 - Northeastern 67 -1
Colorado 75 - Stanford 69 0.682 Colorado 77 - Stanford 64 -7
Delaware State 60 - Norfolk State 79 0.913 Delaware State 76 - Norfolk State 87 -8
Denver 64 - Oral Roberts 82 0.925 Denver 82 - Oral Roberts 91 -9
DePaul 78 - Valparaiso 69 0.779 DePaul 77 - Valparaiso 58 -10
Detroit 72 - Green Bay 74 0.587 Detroit 68 - Green Bay 65 -5
Drexel 71 - William and Mary 65 0.699 Drexel 82 - William and Mary 58 -18
Eastern Illinois 70 - Eastern Kentucky 75 0.679 Eastern Illinois 85 - Eastern Kentucky 93 3
Eastern Washington 75 - Southern Utah 70 0.711 Eastern Washington 94 - Southern Utah 99 10
Florida Atlantic 67 - Florida International 75 0.731 Florida Atlantic 107 - Florida International 63 -52
Florida Gulf Coast 75 - Bellarmine 62 0.858 Florida Gulf Coast 63 - Bellarmine 80 30
Florida State 76 - North Carolina 73 0.597 Florida State 82 - North Carolina 75 -4
Furman 74 - East Tennessee State 66 0.681 Furman 78 - East Tennessee State 66 -4
Georgia Southern 68 - Troy 66 0.561 Georgia Southern 63 - Troy 56 -5
Georgia State 75 - Coastal Carolina 69 0.663 Georgia State 71 - Coastal Carolina 68 3
Grand Canyon 90 - Unranked 54 Grand Canyon 98 - Unranked 47
Hawaii 72 - Cal State Bakersfield 66 0.683 Hawaii 72 - Cal State Bakersfield 83 17
Idaho 63 - Northern Colorado 71 0.731 Idaho 61 - Northern Colorado 75 6
Illinois 79 - Ohio State 73 0.63 Illinois 81 - Ohio State 87 12
Illinois Chicago 68 - Robert Morris 71 0.561 Illinois Chicago 66 - Robert Morris 62 -7
Illinois State 66 - Indiana State 74 0.767 Illinois State 65 - Indiana State 73 0
Incarnate Word 61 - Stephen F Austin 70 0.73 Incarnate Word 65 - Stephen F Austin 83 9
Jacksonville State 65 - Belmont 71 0.705 Jacksonville State 91 - Belmont 98 1
Kennesaw St 67 - North Alabama 66 0.542 Kennesaw St 64 - North Alabama 66 3
La Salle 67 - Davidson 74 0.671 La Salle 53 - Davidson 77 17
Lafayette 79 - Loyola MD 70 0.726 Lafayette 77 - Loyola MD 75 7
Lipscomb 74 - North Florida 67 0.747 Lipscomb 67 - North Florida 72 12
Louisiana State 79 - South Carolina 73 0.655 Louisiana State 85 - South Carolina 80 1
Louisiana Tech 77 - Texas San Antonio 63 0.836 Louisiana Tech 82 - Texas San Antonio 66 -2
Loyola Ill 75 - Northern Iowa 66 0.757 Loyola Ill 72 - Northern Iowa 57 -6
Manhattan 61 - Niagara 68 0.707 Manhattan 58 - Niagara 55 -10
Marist 69 - Fairfield 60 0.732 Marist 52 - Fairfield 55 12
Mercer 79 - Western Carolina 72 0.689 Mercer 78 - Western Carolina 76 5
Miami 67 - Louisville 75 0.715 Miami 78 - Louisville 72 -14
Milwaukee 75 - IPFW 68 0.675 Milwaukee 74 - IPFW 81 14
Minnesota 73 - Michigan 80 0.667 Minnesota 75 - Michigan 57 -25
Mississippi 74 - Georgia 71 0.574 Mississippi 74 - Georgia 78 7
Mississippi State 74 - Florida 75 0.516 Mississippi State 72 - Florida 69 -4
Monmouth 77 - Quinnipiac 61 0.884 Monmouth 70 - Quinnipiac 63 9
Montana 73 - Northern Arizona 60 0.875 Montana 58 - Northern Arizona 62 17
Montana State 76 - Portland State 67 0.711 Montana State 69 - Portland State 64 4
Morgan State 78 - Coppin State 62 0.9 Morgan State 92 - Coppin State 72 -4
Navy 70 - American 66 0.623 Navy 87 - American 86 3
Nevada Las Vegas 78 - New Mexico 65 0.794 Nevada Las Vegas 77 - New Mexico 54 -10
New Orleans 74 - Mcneese State 65 0.763 New Orleans 99 - Mcneese State 84 -6
North Carolina AT 83 - Unranked 62 North Carolina AT 112 - Unranked 46
North Dakota 63 - North Dakota State 71 0.707 North Dakota 82 - North Dakota State 78 -12
North Texas 68 - Texas El Paso 67 0.551 North Texas 74 - Texas El Paso 65 -8
Northern Kentucky 72 - IUPUI 61 0.835 Northern Kentucky 63 - IUPUI 65 13
Notre Dame 79 - Boston College 74 0.66 Notre Dame 80 - Boston College 70 -5
Oakland 73 - Youngstown State 72 0.501 Oakland 81 - Youngstown State 74 -6
Ohio 73 - Kent State 74 0.534 Ohio 79 - Kent State 89 9
Oregon State 71 - Arizona State 74 0.606 Oregon State 80 - Arizona State 79 -4
Pacific 66 - Loyola Marymount 67 0.553 Pacific 58 - Loyola Marymount 49 -10
Pepperdine 79 - Portland 71 0.669 Pepperdine 80 - Portland 65 -7
Pittsburgh 71 - Syracuse 73 0.546 Pittsburgh 96 - Syracuse 76 -22
Rhode Island 79 - George Mason 64 0.883 Rhode Island 80 - George Mason 60 -5
Rice 70 - Old Dominion 71 0.551 Rice 58 - Old Dominion 61 2
Rider 61 - Siena 78 0.88 Rider 72 - Siena 74 -15
Saint Johns 75 - Marquette 78 0.61 Saint Johns 71 - Marquette 73 -1
Saint Marys 68 - Gonzaga 80 0.787 Saint Marys 59 - Gonzaga 73 2
Sam Houston State 81 - Houston Baptist 64 0.908 Sam Houston State 87 - Houston Baptist 80 10
Samford 69 - UNC Greensboro 72 0.58 Samford 70 - UNC Greensboro 82 9
San Francisco 69 - Brigham Young 74 0.641 San Francisco 63 - Brigham Young 72 4
San Jose State 58 - Colorado State 86 0.936 San Jose State 61 - Colorado State 88 -1
SE Missouri State 65 - Morehead State 70 0.671 SE Missouri State 50 - Morehead State 64 9
South Alabama 67 - Appalachian State 69 0.556 South Alabama 77 - Appalachian State 83 4
Southern 72 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 0.693 Southern 88 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 53 -28
Southern California 78 - Washington State 63 0.843 Southern California 85 - Washington State 77 7
Southern Miss 64 - Middle Tennessee 62 0.543 Southern Miss 64 - Middle Tennessee 59 -3
Stetson 62 - Liberty 79 0.858 Stetson 58 - Liberty 68 -7
Stony Brook 71 - New Hampshire 63 0.769 Stony Brook 64 - New Hampshire 81 25
Tennessee 84 - Vanderbilt 61 0.946 Tennessee 81 - Vanderbilt 61 3
Tennessee Martin 64 - Murray State 73 0.717 Tennessee Martin 57 - Murray State 79 13
Tennessee Tech 68 - Tennessee State 66 0.605 Tennessee Tech 74 - Tennessee State 71 -1
Texas 82 - Kansas State 60 0.933 Texas 82 - Kansas State 67 7
Texas AM 64 - Missouri 74 0.725 Texas AM 52 - Missouri 68 6
Texas Arlington 70 - UL Lafayette 69 0.538 Texas Arlington 51 - UL Lafayette 68 18
Texas Pan American 75 - Dixie State 69 0.731 Texas Pan American 72 - Dixie State 65 -1
Texas Southern 74 - Grambling State 63 0.824 Texas Southern 72 - Grambling State 78 17
Texas Tech 70 - Baylor 75 0.656 Texas Tech 60 - Baylor 68 3
Towson 70 - James Madison 71 0.51 Towson 72 - James Madison 81 8
Tulane 69 - Temple 70 0.502 Tulane 57 - Temple 65 7
UC Santa Barbara 80 - UC San Diego 61 0.956 UC Santa Barbara 84 - UC San Diego 53 -12
UCLA 84 - Washington 63 0.926 UCLA 81 - Washington 76 16
UMBC 71 - Hartford 66 0.649 UMBC 63 - Hartford 70 12
Utah 74 - California 65 0.753 Utah 63 - California 72 18
Utah State 68 - San Diego State 71 0.571 Utah State 64 - San Diego State 59 -8
Vermont 74 - Maine 58 0.884 Vermont 65 - Maine 30 -19
Virginia Military Institute 74 - The Citadel 77 0.591 Virginia Military Institute 110 - The Citadel 103 -10
Weber State 88 - Unranked 55 Weber State 124 - Unranked 44
Wright State 71 - Cleveland State 63 0.663 Wright State 85 - Cleveland State 49 -28

GAMES OF 1-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Albany 68 - NJ Tech 67 0.509 Albany 83 - NJ Tech 71 -11
Binghamton 64 - UMass Lowell 72 0.683 Binghamton 67 - UMass Lowell 77 2
Boston 68 - Army 72 0.599 Boston 65 - Army 76 7
Bradley 72 - Evansville 63 0.78 Bradley 86 - Evansville 55 -22
Cal State Fullerton 69 - Cal State Northridge 72 0.601 Cal State Fullerton 85 - Cal State Northridge 77 -11
Colgate 84 - Holy Cross 63 0.844 Colgate 96 - Holy Cross 87 12
College of Charleston 64 - Northeastern 70 0.696 College of Charleston 66 - Northeastern 68 -4
Delaware 63 - Hofstra 74 0.851 Delaware 67 - Hofstra 68 -10
Delaware State 60 - Norfolk State 79 0.913 Delaware State 79 - Norfolk State 83 -15
Drexel 71 - William and Mary 65 0.699 Drexel 64 - William and Mary 69 11
Fordham 62 - Massachusetts 79 0.802 Fordham 46 - Massachusetts 65 2
George Washington 66 - Dayton 79 0.824 George Washington 54 - Dayton 67 0
Houston 78 - Central Florida 64 0.871 Houston 75 - Central Florida 58 -3
Idaho State 63 - Sacramento State 66 0.597 Idaho State 57 - Sacramento State 56 -4
Illinois State 66 - Indiana State 74 0.767 Illinois State 68 - Indiana State 74 -2
Lehigh 71 - Bucknell 66 0.669 Lehigh 61 - Bucknell 77 21
Loyola Ill 75 - Northern Iowa 66 0.757 Loyola Ill 88 - Northern Iowa 46 -33
Loyola MD 72 - Lafayette 77 0.63 Loyola MD 70 - Lafayette 72 -3
Marshall 75 - Western Kentucky 70 0.639 Marshall 67 - Western Kentucky 69 7
Missouri State 95 - Unranked 53 Missouri State 94 - Unranked 49
Morgan State 78 - Coppin State 62 0.9 Morgan State 79 - Coppin State 89 26
Navy 70 - American 66 0.623 Navy 71 - American 59 -8
Nevada 75 - Fresno State 66 0.751 Nevada 79 - Fresno State 65 -5
Northwestern 75 - Iowa 84 0.753 Northwestern 73 - Iowa 96 14
Purdue 77 - Penn State 74 0.588 Purdue 80 - Penn State 72 -5
San Diego 63 - Santa Clara 74 0.8 San Diego 63 - Santa Clara 69 -5
Stony Brook 71 - New Hampshire 63 0.769 Stony Brook 64 - New Hampshire 67 11
Tulsa 74 - Memphis 66 0.763 Tulsa 58 - Memphis 57 7
UMBC 71 - Hartford 66 0.649 UMBC 57 - Hartford 49 -3
Vermont 74 - Maine 58 0.884 Vermont 88 - Maine 60 -12
Wake Forest 66 - Virginia Tech 78 0.779 Wake Forest 60 - Virginia Tech 64 -8
Weber State 74 - Tarleton State 61 0.859 Weber State 94 - Tarleton State 79 -2


Number of DI Games: 271
Number Correct: 187 = 69%
Expected Number Correct: 192.033 = 70.8%
Average Error: 10.47
Average Signed Error: -1.57

GAMES OF 1-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 69 - Wyoming 66 0.586 Air Force 58 - Wyoming 77 22
Alcorn State 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 71 0.557 Alcorn State 82 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 48 -31
Baylor 78 - Kansas 71 0.695 Baylor 77 - Kansas 69 -1
Connecticut 82 - Saint Johns 68 0.916 Connecticut 70 - Saint Johns 74 18
East Tennessee State 74 - Virginia Military Institute 66 0.77 East Tennessee State 92 - Virginia Military Institute 81 -3
Idaho State 65 - Sacramento State 63 0.578 Idaho State 65 - Sacramento State 70 7
La Salle 75 - Saint Josephs 72 0.566 La Salle 90 - Saint Josephs 83 -4
Louisville 77 - Florida State 76 0.506 Louisville 65 - Florida State 78 14
Nevada Las Vegas 77 - New Mexico 64 0.824 Nevada Las Vegas 53 - New Mexico 46 6
Prairie View 70 - Grambling State 65 0.681 Prairie View 59 - Grambling State 50 -4
Samford 74 - Western Carolina 76 0.57 Samford 82 - Western Carolina 78 -6
Southern 82 - Mississippi Valley State 55 0.92 Southern 102 - Mississippi Valley State 61 -14
Towson 67 - UNC Wilmington 73 0.689 Towson 72 - UNC Wilmington 69 -9
UNC Greensboro 80 - The Citadel 71 0.782 UNC Greensboro 87 - The Citadel 73 -5

GAMES OF 1-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bowling Green 76 - Akron 68 0.658 Bowling Green 57 - Akron 69 20
Campbell 64 - Radford 65 0.53 Campbell 91 - Radford 97 5
DePaul 73 - Butler 72 0.525 DePaul 53 - Butler 67 15
Florida 70 - Tennessee 76 0.667 Florida 75 - Tennessee 49 -32
Gardner Webb 72 - UNC Asheville 68 0.625 Gardner Webb 75 - UNC Asheville 79 8
Illinois 83 - Penn State 75 0.72 Illinois 79 - Penn State 65 -6
Kent State 77 - Buffalo 73 0.622 Kent State 84 - Buffalo 81 1
Longwood 65 - High Point 66 0.513 Longwood 75 - High Point 54 -22
Louisiana State 79 - Alabama 78 0.522 Louisiana State 75 - Alabama 105 31
Loyola Marymount 77 - San Diego 61 0.903 Loyola Marymount 72 - San Diego 69 13
Miami OH 65 - Ball State 71 0.659 Miami OH 81 - Ball State 71 -16
Michigan 81 - Maryland 69 0.773 Michigan 87 - Maryland 63 -12
Mississippi State 73 - Mississippi 69 0.628 Mississippi State 46 - Mississippi 64 22
Missouri 77 - South Carolina 69 0.669 Missouri 81 - South Carolina 70 -3
Ohio State 77 - Purdue 73 0.616 Ohio State 65 - Purdue 67 6
Oklahoma 79 - Kansas State 65 0.854 Oklahoma 76 - Kansas State 50 -12
Oregon State 64 - Southern California 82 0.884 Oregon State 58 - Southern California 56 -20
Pittsburgh 75 - Duke 72 0.592 Pittsburgh 79 - Duke 73 -3
Presbyterian 59 - Winthrop 80 0.93 Presbyterian 58 - Winthrop 72 -7
Syracuse 77 - Miami 71 0.639 Syracuse 83 - Miami 57 -20
Tennessee State 68 - SE Missouri State 67 0.542 Tennessee State 59 - SE Missouri State 63 5
Toledo 83 - Central Michigan 65 0.905 Toledo 89 - Central Michigan 72 1
Towson 67 - UNC Wilmington 73 0.689 Towson 78 - UNC Wilmington 74 -10
Utah State 74 - Colorado State 68 0.672 Utah State 83 - Colorado State 64 -13
Villanova 80 - Seton Hall 71 0.747 Villanova 76 - Seton Hall 74 7

GAMES OF 1-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 80 - Auburn 74 0.653 Arkansas 75 - Auburn 73 4
Boise State 81 - Fresno State 60 0.909 Boise State 73 - Fresno State 51 -1
Cal Baptist 85 - Unranked 60 Cal Baptist 89 - Unranked 37
Campbell 64 - Radford 65 0.53 Campbell 61 - Radford 67 5
Creighton 82 - Providence 72 0.758 Creighton 70 - Providence 74 14
Davidson 79 - Fordham 54 0.913 Davidson 73 - Fordham 58 10
Duquesne 65 - Rhode Island 76 0.812 Duquesne 71 - Rhode Island 69 -13
Gardner Webb 72 - UNC Asheville 68 0.625 Gardner Webb 84 - UNC Asheville 57 -23
George Mason 76 - Saint Josephs 70 0.696 George Mason 87 - Saint Josephs 85 4
Georgia 74 - Kentucky 75 0.512 Georgia 63 - Kentucky 62 -2
Georgia Tech 70 - Clemson 74 0.613 Georgia Tech 83 - Clemson 65 -22
Houston 77 - Tulsa 62 0.892 Houston 86 - Tulsa 59 -12
Houston Baptist 68 - Nicholls State 78 0.778 Houston Baptist 83 - Nicholls State 92 -1
Illinois State 65 - Bradley 76 0.826 Illinois State 71 - Bradley 56 -26
Longwood 65 - High Point 66 0.513 Longwood 67 - High Point 54 -14
Mcneese State 65 - Southeast Louisiana 73 0.719 Mcneese State 88 - Southeast Louisiana 92 -4
New Orleans 69 - Texas AM CC 65 0.6 New Orleans 87 - Texas AM CC 68 -15
North Carolina 80 - Wake Forest 66 0.836 North Carolina 80 - Wake Forest 73 7
Presbyterian 59 - Winthrop 80 0.93 Presbyterian 66 - Winthrop 78 -9
Saint Bonaventure 72 - Virginia Commonwealth 70 0.569 Saint Bonaventure 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 54 -14
Sam Houston State 67 - Abilene Christian 69 0.561 Sam Houston State 64 - Abilene Christian 57 -9
Samford 68 - Chattanooga 73 0.643 Samford 64 - Chattanooga 70 1
Stephen F Austin 77 - Northwestern State 62 0.846 Stephen F Austin 86 - Northwestern State 74 3
The Citadel 76 - Mercer 80 0.629 The Citadel 63 - Mercer 83 16
Valparaiso 60 - Loyola Ill 77 0.865 Valparaiso 39 - Loyola Ill 75 19
Virginia Military Institute 68 - Furman 80 0.778 Virginia Military Institute 74 - Furman 73 -13
Washington 63 - Colorado 83 0.906 Washington 84 - Colorado 80 -24
Western Carolina 69 - East Tennessee State 73 0.619 Western Carolina 48 - East Tennessee State 59 7
Wisconsin 79 - Northwestern 67 0.793 Wisconsin 68 - Northwestern 52 -4

GAMES OF 1-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 78 - Central Michigan 67 0.711 Akron 81 - Central Michigan 67 -3
Arizona State 72 - Arizona 81 0.736 Arizona State 82 - Arizona 84 -7
Austin Peay 73 - Tennessee Tech 64 0.78 Austin Peay 72 - Tennessee Tech 69 6
Belmont 80 - Eastern Illinois 65 0.894 Belmont 79 - Eastern Illinois 66 2
Brigham Young 85 - Portland 58 0.995 Brigham Young 95 - Portland 67 -1
Buffalo 81 - Eastern Michigan 63 0.849 Buffalo 92 - Eastern Michigan 77 3
California 66 - UCLA 80 0.832 California 57 - UCLA 61 -10
Central Connecticut State 62 - Mt St Marys 68 0.673 Central Connecticut State 57 - Mt St Marys 67 4
Eastern Kentucky 83 - Tennessee Martin 60 0.954 Eastern Kentucky 113 - Tennessee Martin 73 -17
Iowa 86 - Indiana 74 0.83 Iowa 69 - Indiana 81 24
Loyola Marymount 66 - Saint Marys 67 0.528 Loyola Marymount 61 - Saint Marys 65 3
Memphis 70 - Wichita State 78 0.751 Memphis 72 - Wichita State 52 -28
Merrimack 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.539 Merrimack 62 - Fairleigh Dickinson 51 -10
Miami OH 63 - Bowling Green 74 0.767 Miami OH 96 - Bowling Green 77 -30
Morehead State 73 - SE Missouri State 60 0.849 Morehead State 76 - SE Missouri State 65 2
Morgan State 86 - Unranked 56 Morgan State 99 - Unranked 41
Murray State 65 - Jacksonville State 66 0.509 Murray State 82 - Jacksonville State 85 2
Nevada Las Vegas 92 - Unranked 56 Nevada Las Vegas 99 - Unranked 45
New Mexico 75 - San Jose State 66 0.704 New Mexico 67 - San Jose State 51 -7
Northern Arizona 65 - Montana State 73 0.725 Northern Arizona 51 - Montana State 62 3
Northern Colorado 66 - Eastern Washington 72 0.676 Northern Colorado 78 - Eastern Washington 76 -8
Penn State 77 - Rutgers 76 0.553 Penn State 75 - Rutgers 67 -7
Pepperdine 66 - Pacific 76 0.739 Pepperdine 85 - Pacific 68 -27
Portland State 66 - Idaho State 68 0.556 Portland State 57 - Idaho State 64 5
Sacramento State 61 - Montana 63 0.573 Sacramento State 66 - Montana 78 10
Sacred Heart 68 - Saint Francis Penn 69 0.503 Sacred Heart 58 - Saint Francis Penn 76 17
Santa Clara 69 - San Francisco 70 0.548 Santa Clara 50 - San Francisco 73 22
Tennessee State 66 - SIU Edwardsville 70 0.616 Tennessee State 65 - SIU Edwardsville 67 -2
Utah State 74 - Colorado State 68 0.672 Utah State 76 - Colorado State 84 14
Washington State 69 - Utah 70 0.518 Washington State 56 - Utah 71 14
Weber State 76 - Southern Utah 72 0.638 Weber State 91 - Southern Utah 67 -20

GAMES OF 1-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 57 - San Diego State 73 0.879 Air Force 61 - San Diego State 98 21
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Rice 64 0.775 Alabama Birmingham 78 - Rice 68 2
Appalachian State 66 - Georgia State 75 0.728 Appalachian State 80 - Georgia State 71 -18
Bellarmine 70 - Stetson 68 0.576 Bellarmine 67 - Stetson 62 -3
Cal State Fullerton 69 - Hawaii 71 0.6 Cal State Fullerton 83 - Hawaii 67 -18
Cal State Northridge 67 - UC Santa Barbara 74 0.696 Cal State Northridge 58 - UC Santa Barbara 105 40
Central Connecticut State 62 - Mt St Marys 68 0.673 Central Connecticut State 65 - Mt St Marys 64 -7
Cleveland State 70 - Milwaukee 64 0.63 Cleveland State 64 - Milwaukee 53 -5
Coastal Carolina 75 - Troy 59 0.855 Coastal Carolina 90 - Troy 81 7
Dixie State 60 - Grand Canyon 77 0.904 Dixie State 74 - Grand Canyon 77 -14
Florida Atlantic 64 - Charlotte 69 0.591 Florida Atlantic 66 - Charlotte 53 -18
Florida International 68 - Marshall 80 0.752 Florida International 66 - Marshall 79 1
Green Bay 70 - IPFW 76 0.644 Green Bay 77 - IPFW 59 -24
IUPUI 60 - Wright State 75 0.797 IUPUI 65 - Wright State 95 15
Lipscomb 72 - Florida Gulf Coast 64 0.702 Lipscomb 69 - Florida Gulf Coast 79 18
Merrimack 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.539 Merrimack 76 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 -4
North Alabama 71 - Jacksonville 68 0.59 North Alabama 82 - Jacksonville 81 2
North Dakota State 79 - Denver 59 0.925 North Dakota State 70 - Denver 58 8
North Florida 72 - Kennesaw St 61 0.825 North Florida 69 - Kennesaw St 54 -4
Oakland 74 - Detroit 72 0.553 Oakland 86 - Detroit 81 -3
Purdue 72 - Michigan 77 0.638 Purdue 53 - Michigan 70 12
Quinnipiac 66 - Niagara 65 0.536 Quinnipiac 56 - Niagara 59 4
Rider 67 - Marist 68 0.515 Rider 76 - Marist 64 -13
Robert Morris 68 - Northern Kentucky 66 0.559 Robert Morris 76 - Northern Kentucky 81 7
Sacred Heart 68 - Saint Francis Penn 69 0.503 Sacred Heart 82 - Saint Francis Penn 70 -13
Siena 71 - Saint Peters 64 0.727 Siena 62 - Saint Peters 68 13
South Alabama 71 - Georgia Southern 68 0.6 South Alabama 75 - Georgia Southern 84 12
South Dakota State 79 - North Dakota 62 0.842 South Dakota State 92 - North Dakota 73 -2
Texas Arlington 70 - Arkansas Little Rock 71 0.54 Texas Arlington 59 - Arkansas Little Rock 66 6
Texas El Paso 65 - Louisiana Tech 71 0.668 Texas El Paso 82 - Louisiana Tech 74 -14
Texas San Antonio 69 - Southern Miss 70 0.507 Texas San Antonio 70 - Southern Miss 64 -7
UC Irvine 80 - Cal Poly 57 0.935 UC Irvine 68 - Cal Poly 49 4
UC Riverside 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 66 0.623 UC Riverside 45 - Cal State Bakersfield 47 6
UC San Diego 64 - UC Davis 76 0.888 UC San Diego 89 - UC Davis 69 -32
UL Lafayette 76 - Arkansas State 61 0.855 UL Lafayette 81 - Arkansas State 68 2
UL Monroe 58 - Texas State 71 0.83 UL Monroe 47 - Texas State 57 -3
Western Illinois 64 - South Dakota 77 0.829 Western Illinois 60 - South Dakota 65 -8
Wyoming 67 - Nevada 77 0.79 Wyoming 71 - Nevada 64 -17
Youngstown State 66 - Illinois Chicago 72 0.638 Youngstown State 66 - Illinois Chicago 67 -5

GAMES OF 1-23

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 77 - Central Arkansas 59 0.916 Abilene Christian 93 - Central Arkansas 58 -17
Alabama 82 - Mississippi State 69 0.779 Alabama 81 - Mississippi State 73 5
Alabama AM 67 - Southern 68 0.522 Alabama AM 68 - Southern 58 -11
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Rice 64 0.775 Alabama Birmingham 86 - Rice 74 0
Alabama State 65 - Alcorn State 70 0.649 Alabama State 52 - Alcorn State 57 0
American 71 - Loyola MD 69 0.587 American 71 - Loyola MD 70 1
Appalachian State 66 - Georgia State 75 0.728 Appalachian State 74 - Georgia State 61 -22
Arkansas Pine Bluff 68 - Texas Southern 75 0.676 Arkansas Pine Bluff 57 - Texas Southern 66 2
Austin Peay 68 - Jacksonville State 67 0.504 Austin Peay 70 - Jacksonville State 76 7
Bellarmine 70 - Stetson 68 0.576 Bellarmine 76 - Stetson 65 -9
Belmont 79 - SIU Edwardsville 64 0.853 Belmont 114 - SIU Edwardsville 62 -37
Brigham Young 82 - Pepperdine 64 0.883 Brigham Young 65 - Pepperdine 54 7
Cal Baptist 75 - Long Beach State 73 0.548 Cal Baptist 96 - Long Beach State 75 -19
Cal State Fullerton 69 - Hawaii 71 0.6 Cal State Fullerton 53 - Hawaii 76 21
Cal State Northridge 67 - UC Santa Barbara 74 0.696 Cal State Northridge 66 - UC Santa Barbara 80 7
California 64 - Southern California 80 0.857 California 68 - Southern California 76 -8
Central Florida 73 - Southern Methodist 76 0.576 Central Florida 65 - Southern Methodist 78 10
Chattanooga 67 - UNC Greensboro 68 0.554 Chattanooga 66 - UNC Greensboro 74 7
Cleveland State 70 - Milwaukee 64 0.63 Cleveland State 80 - Milwaukee 81 7
Coastal Carolina 75 - Troy 59 0.855 Coastal Carolina 70 - Troy 65 11
Coppin State 65 - Norfolk State 72 0.701 Coppin State 81 - Norfolk State 71 -17
Creighton 75 - Connecticut 73 0.55 Creighton 74 - Connecticut 66 -6
Dixie State 60 - Grand Canyon 77 0.904 Dixie State 46 - Grand Canyon 81 18
Duquesne 62 - Saint Bonaventure 74 0.856 Duquesne 61 - Saint Bonaventure 65 -8
East Tennessee State 67 - Furman 72 0.634 East Tennessee State 71 - Furman 62 -14
Eastern Michigan 65 - Miami OH 68 0.558 Eastern Michigan 63 - Miami OH 85 19
Florida Atlantic 64 - Charlotte 69 0.591 Florida Atlantic 71 - Charlotte 74 -2
Florida International 68 - Marshall 80 0.752 Florida International 72 - Marshall 89 5
Florida State 75 - Clemson 72 0.572 Florida State 80 - Clemson 61 -16
Georgia 74 - Florida 78 0.598 Georgia 84 - Florida 92 4
Gonzaga 82 - Pacific 66 0.875 Gonzaga 95 - Pacific 49 -30
Grambling State 67 - Jackson State 60 0.723 Grambling State 61 - Jackson State 75 21
Green Bay 70 - IPFW 76 0.644 Green Bay 87 - IPFW 72 -21
Hofstra 76 - Towson 66 0.819 Hofstra 71 - Towson 58 -3
Holy Cross 74 - Lehigh 68 0.656 Holy Cross 72 - Lehigh 75 9
Houston Baptist 80 - Mcneese State 67 0.817 Houston Baptist 71 - Mcneese State 74 16
Illinois State 71 - Valparaiso 70 0.515 Illinois State 60 - Valparaiso 69 10
Incarnate Word 66 - Texas AM CC 65 0.506 Incarnate Word 72 - Texas AM CC 53 -18
IUPUI 60 - Wright State 75 0.797 IUPUI 72 - Wright State 100 13
Kansas State 66 - West Virginia 79 0.89 Kansas State 47 - West Virginia 69 9
Kentucky 72 - Louisiana State 79 0.681 Kentucky 82 - Louisiana State 69 -20
Lafayette 78 - Boston 65 0.805 Lafayette 76 - Boston 81 18
Lipscomb 72 - Florida Gulf Coast 64 0.702 Lipscomb 71 - Florida Gulf Coast 56 -7
Louisville 78 - Duke 71 0.685 Louisville 70 - Duke 65 2
Loyola Marymount 70 - Santa Clara 65 0.675 Loyola Marymount 69 - Santa Clara 72 8
Marquette 79 - DePaul 69 0.838 Marquette 61 - DePaul 68 17
Mercer 78 - Virginia Military Institute 70 0.722 Mercer 83 - Virginia Military Institute 80 5
Middle Tennessee 59 - Western Kentucky 78 0.89 Middle Tennessee 67 - Western Kentucky 82 -4
Minnesota 79 - Maryland 73 0.638 Minnesota 49 - Maryland 63 20
Mississippi 70 - Texas AM 66 0.626 Mississippi 61 - Texas AM 50 -7
Mississippi Valley State 59 - Prairie View 82 0.928 Mississippi Valley State 31 - Prairie View 77 23
Morehead State 76 - Tennessee Martin 56 0.91 Morehead State 76 - Tennessee Martin 44 -12
Murray State 72 - Tennessee Tech 62 0.746 Murray State 72 - Tennessee Tech 63 1
Navy 71 - Army 68 0.569 Navy 69 - Army 62 -4
New Hampshire 68 - Albany 67 0.548 New Hampshire 71 - Albany 64 -6
New Mexico 75 - San Jose State 66 0.704 New Mexico 71 - San Jose State 83 21
Nicholls State 76 - New Orleans 64 0.849 Nicholls State 86 - New Orleans 62 -12
NJ Tech 71 - Stony Brook 70 0.513 NJ Tech 74 - Stony Brook 65 -8
North Alabama 71 - Jacksonville 68 0.59 North Alabama 76 - Jacksonville 54 -19
North Carolina 79 - NC State 72 0.717 North Carolina 86 - NC State 76 -3
North Dakota State 79 - Denver 59 0.925 North Dakota State 84 - Denver 58 -6
North Florida 72 - Kennesaw St 61 0.825 North Florida 68 - Kennesaw St 65 8
Northeastern 74 - James Madison 66 0.759 Northeastern 72 - James Madison 63 -1
Northern Arizona 65 - Montana State 73 0.725 Northern Arizona 53 - Montana State 58 -3
Northern Colorado 66 - Eastern Washington 72 0.676 Northern Colorado 76 - Eastern Washington 82 0
Oakland 74 - Detroit 72 0.553 Oakland 72 - Detroit 82 12
Ohio 73 - Ball State 71 0.536 Ohio 85 - Ball State 77 -6
Oklahoma 73 - Kansas 75 0.55 Oklahoma 75 - Kansas 68 -9
Oklahoma State 72 - Baylor 79 0.718 Oklahoma State 66 - Baylor 81 8
Oral Roberts 75 - UMKC 67 0.747 Oral Roberts 60 - UMKC 58 6
Oregon 83 - Oregon State 63 0.933 Oregon 64 - Oregon State 75 31
Penn State 80 - Northwestern 75 0.647 Penn State 81 - Northwestern 78 2
Portland 73 - San Diego 72 0.502 Portland 70 - San Diego 78 9
Portland State 66 - Idaho State 68 0.556 Portland State 69 - Idaho State 43 -28
Quinnipiac 66 - Niagara 65 0.536 Quinnipiac 78 - Niagara 69 -8
Richmond 81 - La Salle 63 0.872 Richmond 78 - La Salle 84 24
Rider 67 - Marist 68 0.515 Rider 67 - Marist 76 8
Robert Morris 68 - Northern Kentucky 66 0.559 Robert Morris 74 - Northern Kentucky 79 7
Sacramento State 61 - Montana 63 0.573 Sacramento State 89 - Montana 83 -8
Saint Johns 81 - Utah Valley 69 0.828 Saint Johns 96 - Utah Valley 78 -6
Saint Josephs 72 - George Mason 74 0.581 Saint Josephs 62 - George Mason 71 7
San Francisco 67 - Saint Marys 68 0.507 San Francisco 63 - Saint Marys 67 3
Siena 71 - Saint Peters 64 0.727 Siena 47 - Saint Peters 40 0
South Alabama 71 - Georgia Southern 68 0.6 South Alabama 62 - Georgia Southern 48 -11
South Carolina 78 - Auburn 74 0.594 South Carolina 86 - Auburn 109 27
South Dakota State 79 - North Dakota 62 0.842 South Dakota State 85 - North Dakota 74 6
Southeast Louisiana 71 - Northwestern State 68 0.588 Southeast Louisiana 68 - Northwestern State 73 8
Southern Utah 73 - Weber State 74 0.513 Southern Utah 77 - Weber State 72 -6
Stanford 72 - UCLA 76 0.608 Stanford 73 - UCLA 72 -5
Stephen F Austin 74 - Lamar 61 0.818 Stephen F Austin 102 - Lamar 72 -17
Syracuse 73 - Virginia Tech 76 0.573 Syracuse 78 - Virginia Tech 60 -21
Temple 64 - Houston 78 0.908 Temple 51 - Houston 68 3
Tennessee 74 - Missouri 67 0.685 Tennessee 64 - Missouri 73 16
Tennessee State 67 - Eastern Illinois 71 0.636 Tennessee State 65 - Eastern Illinois 54 -15
Texas Arlington 70 - Arkansas Little Rock 71 0.54 Texas Arlington 66 - Arkansas Little Rock 61 -6
Texas El Paso 65 - Louisiana Tech 71 0.668 Texas El Paso 55 - Louisiana Tech 73 12
Texas San Antonio 69 - Southern Miss 70 0.507 Texas San Antonio 78 - Southern Miss 72 -7
Toledo 76 - Kent State 72 0.656 Toledo 76 - Kent State 74 2
UC Irvine 80 - Cal Poly 57 0.935 UC Irvine 67 - Cal Poly 44 0
UC Riverside 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 66 0.623 UC Riverside 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 63 -3
UC San Diego 64 - UC Davis 76 0.888 UC San Diego 71 - UC Davis 78 -5
UL Lafayette 76 - Arkansas State 61 0.855 UL Lafayette 77 - Arkansas State 74 12
UL Monroe 58 - Texas State 71 0.83 UL Monroe 63 - Texas State 69 -7
UNC Wilmington 73 - Delaware 64 0.724 UNC Wilmington 77 - Delaware 70 2
Vanderbilt 70 - Arkansas 81 0.783 Vanderbilt 71 - Arkansas 92 10
Villanova 83 - Providence 69 0.865 Villanova 71 - Providence 56 -1
Virginia 78 - Georgia Tech 66 0.781 Virginia 64 - Georgia Tech 62 10
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Dayton 68 0.66 Virginia Commonwealth 66 - Dayton 43 -17
Wake Forest 67 - Pittsburgh 75 0.688 Wake Forest 76 - Pittsburgh 75 -9
Washington State 64 - Colorado 77 0.814 Washington State 59 - Colorado 70 -2
Western Illinois 64 - South Dakota 77 0.829 Western Illinois 74 - South Dakota 84 -3
Western Michigan 64 - Akron 73 0.715 Western Michigan 68 - Akron 79 2
William and Mary 67 - Drexel 69 0.563 William and Mary 64 - Drexel 79 13
Wisconsin 75 - Ohio State 72 0.576 Wisconsin 62 - Ohio State 74 15
Wofford 78 - Western Carolina 67 0.801 Wofford 91 - Western Carolina 78 -2
Youngstown State 66 - Illinois Chicago 72 0.638 Youngstown State 85 - Illinois Chicago 77 -14

GAMES OF 1-24

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 57 - San Diego State 73 0.879 Air Force 59 - San Diego State 91 16
Bradley 67 - Loyola Ill 72 0.623 Bradley 56 - Loyola Ill 69 8
Coppin State 65 - Norfolk State 72 0.701 Coppin State 81 - Norfolk State 77 -11
East Carolina 69 - Memphis 70 0.549 East Carolina 53 - Memphis 80 26
Gardner Webb 76 - Charleston Southern 59 0.877 Gardner Webb 74 - Charleston Southern 62 5
High Point 70 - Presbyterian 61 0.745 High Point 81 - Presbyterian 57 -15
Hofstra 76 - Towson 66 0.819 Hofstra 74 - Towson 69 5
Holy Cross 74 - Lehigh 68 0.656 Holy Cross 74 - Lehigh 82 14
Illinois State 71 - Valparaiso 70 0.515 Illinois State 66 - Valparaiso 70 5
Indiana 76 - Rutgers 73 0.587 Indiana 70 - Rutgers 74 7
Lafayette 78 - Boston 65 0.805 Lafayette 61 - Boston 64 16
Loyola MD 71 - American 69 0.56 Loyola MD 79 - American 81 4
Massachusetts 75 - Davidson 77 0.553 Massachusetts 60 - Davidson 69 7
Miami 75 - Notre Dame 73 0.583 Miami 59 - Notre Dame 73 16
Middle Tennessee 59 - Western Kentucky 78 0.89 Middle Tennessee 52 - Western Kentucky 68 -3
Morgan State 81 - Delaware State 61 0.908 Morgan State 99 - Delaware State 83 4
Navy 71 - Army 68 0.569 Navy 78 - Army 87 12
New Hampshire 68 - Albany 67 0.548 New Hampshire 64 - Albany 83 20
Nicholls State 87 - Unranked 56 Nicholls State 105 - Unranked 60
NJ Tech 71 - Stony Brook 70 0.513 NJ Tech 44 - Stony Brook 56 13
Northeastern 74 - James Madison 66 0.759 Northeastern 72 - James Madison 79 15
Oral Roberts 75 - UMKC 67 0.747 Oral Roberts 76 - UMKC 81 13
Rhode Island 80 - Fordham 55 0.921 Rhode Island 52 - Fordham 42 15
UNC Asheville 67 - Radford 66 0.513 UNC Asheville 76 - Radford 68 -7
UNC Wilmington 73 - Delaware 64 0.724 UNC Wilmington 62 - Delaware 67 14
Washington 69 - Utah 75 0.678 Washington 83 - Utah 79 -10
Wyoming 67 - Nevada 77 0.79 Wyoming 93 - Nevada 88 -15


Number of DI Games: 277
Number Correct: 175 = 63.1%
Expected Number Correct: 193.247 = 69.7%
Average Error: 10.61
Average Signed Error: -0.33

GAMES OF 1-25

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama State 56 - Southern 70 0.833 Alabama State 66 - Southern 64 -16
Arizona 83 - Arizona State 71 0.805 Arizona 80 - Arizona State 67 -1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 60 - Prairie View 74 0.815 Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 - Prairie View 73 3
Bradley 64 - Loyola Ill 73 0.716 Bradley 58 - Loyola Ill 65 -2
Gardner Webb 76 - Charleston Southern 58 0.878 Gardner Webb 80 - Charleston Southern 71 9
High Point 69 - Presbyterian 60 0.717 High Point 56 - Presbyterian 71 24
Indiana State 71 - Southern Illinois 67 0.647 Indiana State 69 - Southern Illinois 66 1
Iowa State 71 - Oklahoma State 81 0.788 Iowa State 60 - Oklahoma State 81 11
Nevada Las Vegas 66 - Utah State 76 0.745 Nevada Las Vegas 59 - Utah State 56 -13
New Mexico State 80 - Unranked 54 New Mexico State 70 - Unranked 41
Northern Iowa 87 - Unranked 57 Northern Iowa 70 - Unranked 60
Portland 66 - Loyola Marymount 77 0.812 Portland 50 - Loyola Marymount 75 14
Tarleton State 78 - Unranked 59 Tarleton State 113 - Unranked 53
UNC Asheville 68 - Radford 67 0.519 UNC Asheville 63 - Radford 73 11
Virginia 76 - Syracuse 68 0.697 Virginia 81 - Syracuse 58 -15
West Virginia 74 - Texas Tech 71 0.6 West Virginia 88 - Texas Tech 87 2

GAMES OF 1-26

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 79 - Eastern Michigan 60 0.835 Akron 86 - Eastern Michigan 65 -2
Alabama 81 - Kentucky 68 0.759 Alabama 70 - Kentucky 59 2
Auburn 73 - Missouri 76 0.584 Auburn 88 - Missouri 82 -9
Connecticut 75 - Butler 65 0.793 Connecticut 63 - Butler 51 -2
Duke 75 - Georgia Tech 76 0.522 Duke 75 - Georgia Tech 68 -8
Eastern Illinois 71 - SIU Edwardsville 68 0.577 Eastern Illinois 74 - SIU Edwardsville 87 16
Indiana State 71 - Southern Illinois 67 0.647 Indiana State 71 - Southern Illinois 59 -8
Memphis 74 - Southern Methodist 75 0.517 Memphis 76 - Southern Methodist 72 -5
Miami OH 67 - Toledo 75 0.709 Miami OH 81 - Toledo 90 1
Missouri State 72 - Drake 78 0.662 Missouri State 61 - Drake 68 1
Ohio 78 - Western Michigan 62 0.814 Ohio 81 - Western Michigan 58 -7
Pittsburgh 74 - North Carolina 75 0.53 Pittsburgh 65 - North Carolina 75 9
Portland State 82 - Unranked 57 Portland State 69 - Unranked 60
Saint Francis Penn 76 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.789 Saint Francis Penn 92 - Fairleigh Dickinson 94 14
Saint Josephs 70 - Richmond 85 0.891 Saint Josephs 56 - Richmond 79 8
Saint Louis 76 - Dayton 67 0.77 Saint Louis 71 - Dayton 76 14
Temple 69 - Tulsa 71 0.55 Temple 76 - Tulsa 67 -11
Tennessee 78 - Mississippi State 66 0.758 Tennessee 56 - Mississippi State 53 9
Tennessee Martin 66 - SE Missouri State 72 0.677 Tennessee Martin 69 - SE Missouri State 66 -9
Texas 77 - Oklahoma 72 0.652 Texas 79 - Oklahoma 80 6
Texas AM 68 - Louisiana State 77 0.71 Texas AM 66 - Louisiana State 78 3

GAMES OF 1-27

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 69 - Stephen F Austin 63 0.642 Abilene Christian 82 - Stephen F Austin 62 -14
Arkansas 76 - Mississippi 70 0.667 Arkansas 74 - Mississippi 59 -9
Baylor 86 - Kansas State 59 0.978 Baylor 107 - Kansas State 59 -21
Central Florida 75 - East Carolina 66 0.752 Central Florida 71 - East Carolina 64 2
Clemson 72 - Louisville 71 0.506 Clemson 54 - Louisville 50 -3
Colorado 79 - Washington State 63 0.851 Colorado 70 - Washington State 58 4
Colorado State 71 - Boise State 73 0.555 Colorado State 78 - Boise State 56 -24
DePaul 75 - Saint Johns 79 0.607 DePaul 68 - Saint Johns 81 9
Florida 85 - Vanderbilt 66 0.895 Florida 78 - Vanderbilt 71 12
Florida State 85 - Miami 66 0.875 Florida State 81 - Miami 59 -3
Fordham 61 - Duquesne 70 0.726 Fordham 62 - Duquesne 86 15
Incarnate Word 72 - Houston Baptist 67 0.638 Incarnate Word 57 - Houston Baptist 73 21
James Madison 74 - Towson 67 0.725 James Madison 78 - Towson 63 -8
Kent State 76 - Bowling Green 69 0.678 Kent State 96 - Bowling Green 91 2
La Salle 69 - Rhode Island 76 0.671 La Salle 60 - Rhode Island 73 6
LIU Brooklyn 73 - Merrimack 62 0.799 LIU Brooklyn 63 - Merrimack 68 16
Maryland 71 - Wisconsin 73 0.547 Maryland 55 - Wisconsin 61 4
Missouri State 72 - Drake 78 0.662 Missouri State 73 - Drake 78 -1
NC State 78 - Wake Forest 73 0.633 NC State 72 - Wake Forest 67 0
Nevada Las Vegas 66 - Utah State 76 0.745 Nevada Las Vegas 74 - Utah State 83 -1
Nicholls State 82 - Mcneese State 60 0.936 Nicholls State 76 - Mcneese State 69 15
Northwestern State 71 - New Orleans 70 0.521 Northwestern State 81 - New Orleans 73 -7
Notre Dame 72 - Virginia Tech 76 0.635 Notre Dame 51 - Virginia Tech 62 7
Ohio State 82 - Penn State 74 0.717 Ohio State 83 - Penn State 79 4
Pepperdine 66 - Brigham Young 78 0.791 Pepperdine 76 - Brigham Young 73 -15
Providence 76 - Marquette 73 0.598 Providence 72 - Marquette 63 -6
Saint Francis Penn 76 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 0.789 Saint Francis Penn 90 - Fairleigh Dickinson 82 4
Seton Hall 76 - Creighton 77 0.531 Seton Hall 81 - Creighton 85 3
South Carolina 79 - Georgia 78 0.534 South Carolina 83 - Georgia 59 -23
Southeast Louisiana 68 - Central Arkansas 71 0.599 Southeast Louisiana 69 - Central Arkansas 57 -15
Texas AM CC 58 - Sam Houston State 77 0.903 Texas AM CC 70 - Sam Houston State 75 -14
The Citadel 69 - Wofford 81 0.856 The Citadel 77 - Wofford 69 -20
UNC Greensboro 72 - Mercer 67 0.634 UNC Greensboro 81 - Mercer 68 -8
Virginia Military Institute 77 - Western Carolina 73 0.647 Virginia Military Institute 87 - Western Carolina 61 -22

GAMES OF 1-28

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 77 - Stanford 72 0.635 Arizona 64 - Stanford 73 14
Arizona State 76 - California 71 0.665 Arizona State 72 - California 68 1
Austin Peay 66 - Belmont 77 0.779 Austin Peay 76 - Belmont 81 -6
Fresno State 70 - New Mexico 62 0.724 Fresno State 64 - New Mexico 62 6
Idaho 59 - Weber State 80 0.917 Idaho 56 - Weber State 81 4
Jacksonville State 65 - Morehead State 64 0.545 Jacksonville State 66 - Morehead State 85 20
Kansas 79 - Texas Christian 66 0.806 Kansas 59 - Texas Christian 51 5
LIU Brooklyn 73 - Merrimack 62 0.799 LIU Brooklyn 78 - Merrimack 68 1
Middle Tennessee 56 - Alabama Birmingham 75 0.867 Middle Tennessee 59 - Alabama Birmingham 70 -8
Murray State 70 - Tennessee State 61 0.775 Murray State 73 - Tennessee State 53 -11
Rutgers 77 - Michigan State 74 0.574 Rutgers 67 - Michigan State 37 -27
San Diego 61 - Gonzaga 92 0.987 San Diego 62 - Gonzaga 90 -3
San Diego State 81 - Wyoming 62 0.894 San Diego State 87 - Wyoming 57 -11
San Jose State 66 - Air Force 74 0.688 San Jose State 59 - Air Force 58 -9
SE Missouri State 70 - SIU Edwardsville 68 0.529 SE Missouri State 64 - SIU Edwardsville 62 0
Southern California 79 - Oregon State 66 0.795 Southern California 75 - Oregon State 62 0
Southern Methodist 77 - Memphis 72 0.632 Southern Methodist 67 - Memphis 65 3
Southern Miss 63 - Louisiana Tech 73 0.755 Southern Miss 63 - Louisiana Tech 76 3
Tennessee Martin 66 - Eastern Illinois 74 0.723 Tennessee Martin 51 - Eastern Illinois 41 -18
Texas San Antonio 71 - Texas El Paso 72 0.517 Texas San Antonio 86 - Texas El Paso 79 -8
Tulane 58 - Houston 81 0.962 Tulane 60 - Houston 83 0
Valparaiso 65 - Bradley 71 0.68 Valparaiso 91 - Bradley 85 -12
Winthrop 79 - UNC Asheville 65 0.835 Winthrop 84 - UNC Asheville 80 10

GAMES OF 1-29

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas Little Rock 74 - UL Monroe 60 0.862 Arkansas Little Rock 66 - UL Monroe 62 10
Arkansas State 67 - Texas Arlington 73 0.708 Arkansas State 83 - Texas Arlington 75 -14
Buffalo 78 - Ohio 73 0.592 Buffalo 75 - Ohio 76 6
Cal Baptist 77 - Dixie State 63 0.79 Cal Baptist 89 - Dixie State 74 -1
Cal Poly 67 - Cal State Northridge 73 0.662 Cal Poly 76 - Cal State Northridge 70 -12
Cal State Bakersfield 73 - Cal State Fullerton 62 0.773 Cal State Bakersfield 84 - Cal State Fullerton 90 17
Campbell 72 - Charleston Southern 60 0.807 Campbell 59 - Charleston Southern 58 11
Charlotte 74 - Florida International 65 0.696 Charlotte 63 - Florida International 55 1
Cleveland State 72 - Green Bay 64 0.671 Cleveland State 74 - Green Bay 68 2
Colorado State 71 - Boise State 73 0.555 Colorado State 77 - Boise State 85 6
Florida Gulf Coast 68 - Stetson 67 0.531 Florida Gulf Coast 64 - Stetson 63 0
Gardner Webb 73 - High Point 63 0.725 Gardner Webb 55 - High Point 59 14
Georgia Southern 67 - Coastal Carolina 73 0.678 Georgia Southern 62 - Coastal Carolina 79 11
Grand Canyon 69 - New Mexico State 60 0.743 Grand Canyon 70 - New Mexico State 62 1
Hawaii 64 - UC Irvine 72 0.672 Hawaii 51 - UC Irvine 53 -6
Illinois 82 - Iowa 81 0.521 Illinois 80 - Iowa 75 -4
IPFW 74 - Oakland 73 0.521 IPFW 66 - Oakland 81 16
IUPUI 67 - Milwaukee 71 0.64 IUPUI 73 - Milwaukee 68 -9
Jacksonville 61 - Liberty 75 0.832 Jacksonville 54 - Liberty 59 -9
Kennesaw St 58 - Bellarmine 72 0.887 Kennesaw St 67 - Bellarmine 84 3
Niagara 66 - Monmouth 74 0.746 Niagara 67 - Monmouth 77 2
North Carolina Central 86 - Unranked 55 North Carolina Central 94 - Unranked 61
North Dakota 72 - Western Illinois 65 0.712 North Dakota 83 - Western Illinois 81 5
North Florida 70 - North Alabama 71 0.538 North Florida 78 - North Alabama 82 3
Northern Arizona 64 - Northern Colorado 69 0.664 Northern Arizona 68 - Northern Colorado 64 -9
Northern Kentucky 68 - Illinois Chicago 67 0.541 Northern Kentucky 72 - Illinois Chicago 68 -3
Presbyterian 60 - Longwood 66 0.689 Presbyterian 45 - Longwood 49 -2
Rice 67 - North Texas 71 0.625 Rice 74 - North Texas 79 1
Saint Peters 69 - Manhattan 56 0.819 Saint Peters 59 - Manhattan 55 9
South Dakota 76 - Omaha 64 0.841 South Dakota 91 - Omaha 59 -20
Texas State 68 - UL Lafayette 64 0.621 Texas State 60 - UL Lafayette 62 6
Troy 63 - Appalachian State 70 0.665 Troy 71 - Appalachian State 62 -16
UC Davis 63 - UC Santa Barbara 78 0.808 UC Davis 51 - UC Santa Barbara 72 6
UMKC 63 - North Dakota State 66 0.605 UMKC 67 - North Dakota State 71 1
Utah Valley 74 - Tarleton State 61 0.878 Utah Valley 73 - Tarleton State 60 0
Winthrop 79 - UNC Asheville 65 0.835 Winthrop 55 - UNC Asheville 57 16
Wright State 81 - Robert Morris 58 0.902 Wright State 79 - Robert Morris 70 14
Youngstown State 71 - Detroit 72 0.549 Youngstown State 75 - Detroit 78 2

GAMES OF 1-30

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 74 - Ball State 67 0.673 Akron 74 - Ball State 42 -25
Alcorn State 66 - Southern 70 0.576 Alcorn State 59 - Southern 76 13
Arizona 81 - California 65 0.844 Arizona 71 - California 50 -5
Arizona State 73 - Stanford 77 0.643 Arizona State 79 - Stanford 75 -8
Arkansas Little Rock 74 - UL Monroe 60 0.862 Arkansas Little Rock 65 - UL Monroe 49 -2
Arkansas State 67 - Texas Arlington 73 0.708 Arkansas State 64 - Texas Arlington 65 -5
Austin Peay 71 - Tennessee State 62 0.783 Austin Peay 71 - Tennessee State 56 -6
Baylor 84 - Auburn 68 0.887 Baylor 84 - Auburn 72 4
Binghamton 63 - New Hampshire 73 0.776 Binghamton 65 - New Hampshire 44 -31
Bowling Green 70 - Toledo 75 0.635 Bowling Green 66 - Toledo 84 13
Brigham Young 76 - Pacific 61 0.838 Brigham Young 95 - Pacific 87 7
Butler 68 - Xavier 75 0.671 Butler 55 - Xavier 68 6
Cal Baptist 77 - Dixie State 63 0.79 Cal Baptist 75 - Dixie State 79 18
Cal Poly 67 - Cal State Northridge 73 0.662 Cal Poly 51 - Cal State Northridge 64 7
Cal State Bakersfield 73 - Cal State Fullerton 62 0.773 Cal State Bakersfield 83 - Cal State Fullerton 73 1
Campbell 72 - Charleston Southern 60 0.807 Campbell 75 - Charleston Southern 67 4
Central Arkansas 74 - Northwestern State 69 0.67 Central Arkansas 77 - Northwestern State 81 9
Charlotte 74 - Florida International 65 0.696 Charlotte 68 - Florida International 65 6
Cleveland State 72 - Green Bay 64 0.671 Cleveland State 73 - Green Bay 65 0
Colorado 78 - Utah 66 0.814 Colorado 74 - Utah 77 15
Coppin State 67 - Morgan State 72 0.636 Coppin State 76 - Morgan State 79 -2
Dayton 71 - Rhode Island 72 0.503 Dayton 67 - Rhode Island 56 -12
Delaware 68 - Elon 64 0.633 Delaware 66 - Elon 43 -19
DePaul 70 - Creighton 82 0.804 DePaul 62 - Creighton 69 -5
Duke 73 - Clemson 74 0.529 Duke 79 - Clemson 53 -27
Duquesne 78 - Saint Josephs 70 0.784 Duquesne 67 - Saint Josephs 50 -9
East Carolina 66 - Tulsa 73 0.708 East Carolina 68 - Tulsa 77 2
East Tennessee State 80 - The Citadel 65 0.907 East Tennessee State 112 - The Citadel 84 -13
Fairleigh Dickinson 67 - Bryant 82 0.907 Fairleigh Dickinson 81 - Bryant 79 -17
Florida Gulf Coast 68 - Stetson 67 0.531 Florida Gulf Coast 66 - Stetson 77 12
Fresno State 70 - New Mexico 62 0.724 Fresno State 65 - New Mexico 55 -2
Gardner Webb 73 - High Point 63 0.725 Gardner Webb 69 - High Point 72 13
Georgetown 72 - Providence 77 0.669 Georgetown 73 - Providence 72 -6
Georgia 73 - Mississippi 74 0.522 Georgia 71 - Mississippi 61 -11
Georgia Southern 67 - Coastal Carolina 73 0.678 Georgia Southern 61 - Coastal Carolina 58 -9
Georgia Tech 74 - Florida State 80 0.644 Georgia Tech 76 - Florida State 65 -17
Grambling State 71 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 61 0.725 Grambling State 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 71 7
Grand Canyon 69 - New Mexico State 60 0.743 Grand Canyon 65 - New Mexico State 53 -3
Hawaii 64 - UC Irvine 72 0.672 Hawaii 62 - UC Irvine 61 -9
Holy Cross 64 - Colgate 85 0.843 Holy Cross 63 - Colgate 74 -10
Idaho 59 - Weber State 80 0.917 Idaho 62 - Weber State 81 -2
Incarnate Word 56 - Abilene Christian 72 0.841 Incarnate Word 67 - Abilene Christian 75 -8
IPFW 74 - Oakland 73 0.521 IPFW 75 - Oakland 82 8
IUPUI 67 - Milwaukee 71 0.64 IUPUI 76 - Milwaukee 83 3
Jackson State 78 - Mississippi Valley State 54 0.929 Jackson State 106 - Mississippi Valley State 56 -26
Jacksonville 61 - Liberty 75 0.832 Jacksonville 58 - Liberty 64 -8
Kansas State 67 - Texas AM 68 0.534 Kansas State 61 - Texas AM 68 6
Kennesaw St 58 - Bellarmine 72 0.887 Kennesaw St 79 - Bellarmine 84 -9
Kent State 83 - Central Michigan 64 0.913 Kent State 83 - Central Michigan 76 12
Lamar 74 - Mcneese State 65 0.761 Lamar 64 - Mcneese State 56 1
Lehigh 69 - Bucknell 70 0.508 Lehigh 70 - Bucknell 84 13
Lipscomb 85 - Unranked 56 Lipscomb 89 - Unranked 56
Louisiana State 74 - Texas Tech 75 0.51 Louisiana State 71 - Texas Tech 76 4
Louisiana Tech 75 - Southern Miss 61 0.829 Louisiana Tech 65 - Southern Miss 62 11
Marist 61 - Siena 71 0.815 Marist 55 - Siena 54 -11
Miami OH 73 - Western Michigan 61 0.818 Miami OH 65 - Western Michigan 56 3
Mississippi State 78 - Iowa State 70 0.722 Mississippi State 95 - Iowa State 56 -31
Missouri 78 - Texas Christian 65 0.795 Missouri 102 - Texas Christian 98 9
Mt St Marys 67 - Sacred Heart 63 0.601 Mt St Marys 58 - Sacred Heart 61 7
Murray State 65 - Belmont 76 0.753 Murray State 71 - Belmont 72 -10
Navy 78 - Loyola MD 62 0.944 Navy 70 - Loyola MD 52 -2
Niagara 66 - Monmouth 74 0.746 Niagara 83 - Monmouth 74 -17
Norfolk State 78 - Delaware State 61 0.892 Norfolk State 94 - Delaware State 66 -11
North Carolina AT 70 - Florida AM 73 0.585 North Carolina AT 70 - Florida AM 58 -15
North Dakota 72 - Western Illinois 65 0.712 North Dakota 87 - Western Illinois 99 19
North Florida 70 - North Alabama 71 0.538 North Florida 82 - North Alabama 72 -11
Northern Kentucky 68 - Illinois Chicago 67 0.541 Northern Kentucky 69 - Illinois Chicago 67 -1
Oklahoma 75 - Alabama 78 0.57 Oklahoma 66 - Alabama 61 -8
Oklahoma State 78 - Arkansas 76 0.54 Oklahoma State 81 - Arkansas 77 -2
Penn State 73 - Wisconsin 77 0.601 Penn State 81 - Wisconsin 71 -14
Pepperdine 67 - Gonzaga 90 0.911 Pepperdine 75 - Gonzaga 97 -1
Pittsburgh 78 - Notre Dame 71 0.684 Pittsburgh 58 - Notre Dame 84 33
Prairie View 67 - Alabama AM 64 0.606 Prairie View 79 - Alabama AM 57 -19
Presbyterian 60 - Longwood 66 0.689 Presbyterian 66 - Longwood 54 -18
Purdue 76 - Minnesota 73 0.562 Purdue 81 - Minnesota 62 -16
Saint Bonaventure 77 - George Mason 62 0.862 Saint Bonaventure 84 - George Mason 67 -2
Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - LIU Brooklyn 71 0.546 Saint Francis Brooklyn 88 - LIU Brooklyn 102 12
Saint Francis Penn 74 - Central Connecticut State 64 0.743 Saint Francis Penn 62 - Central Connecticut State 59 7
Saint Peters 69 - Manhattan 56 0.819 Saint Peters 68 - Manhattan 54 -1
San Diego State 81 - Wyoming 62 0.894 San Diego State 98 - Wyoming 71 -8
San Jose State 66 - Air Force 74 0.688 San Jose State 75 - Air Force 62 -21
SE Missouri State 69 - Eastern Illinois 70 0.51 SE Missouri State 75 - Eastern Illinois 44 -32
Seton Hall 73 - Villanova 78 0.661 Seton Hall 72 - Villanova 80 3
South Dakota 76 - Omaha 64 0.841 South Dakota 97 - Omaha 93 8
Southeast Louisiana 67 - New Orleans 68 0.536 Southeast Louisiana 79 - New Orleans 73 -7
Southern Illinois 73 - Northern Iowa 68 0.625 Southern Illinois 62 - Northern Iowa 74 17
Stony Brook 66 - Hartford 67 0.527 Stony Brook 57 - Hartford 59 1
Tennessee 74 - Kansas 71 0.558 Tennessee 80 - Kansas 61 -16
Tennessee Martin 66 - SIU Edwardsville 73 0.638 Tennessee Martin 60 - SIU Edwardsville 76 9
Tennessee Tech 60 - Morehead State 70 0.792 Tennessee Tech 55 - Morehead State 74 9
Texas El Paso 74 - Texas San Antonio 69 0.618 Texas El Paso 69 - Texas San Antonio 51 -13
Texas Southern 74 - Alabama State 56 0.943 Texas Southern 80 - Alabama State 73 11
Texas State 68 - UL Lafayette 64 0.621 Texas State 73 - UL Lafayette 74 5
Towson 70 - William and Mary 67 0.615 Towson 74 - William and Mary 84 13
Troy 63 - Appalachian State 70 0.665 Troy 65 - Appalachian State 59 -13
UC Davis 63 - UC Santa Barbara 78 0.808 UC Davis 86 - UC Santa Barbara 89 -12
UCLA 79 - Oregon State 67 0.795 UCLA 57 - Oregon State 52 7
UMKC 63 - North Dakota State 66 0.605 UMKC 49 - North Dakota State 47 -5
UNC Greensboro 76 - Virginia Military Institute 66 0.805 UNC Greensboro 76 - Virginia Military Institute 59 -7
UNC Wilmington 69 - Hofstra 73 0.611 UNC Wilmington 73 - Hofstra 82 5
Utah Valley 74 - Tarleton State 61 0.878 Utah Valley 62 - Tarleton State 70 21
Vanderbilt 75 - South Carolina 79 0.634 Vanderbilt 93 - South Carolina 81 -16
Virginia Commonwealth 78 - La Salle 64 0.79 Virginia Commonwealth 73 - La Salle 62 3
Virginia Tech 68 - Virginia 73 0.632 Virginia Tech 65 - Virginia 51 -19
Wake Forest 74 - Miami 71 0.574 Wake Forest 66 - Miami 54 -9
West Virginia 76 - Florida 73 0.581 West Virginia 80 - Florida 85 8
Western Carolina 69 - Furman 79 0.747 Western Carolina 69 - Furman 75 -4
Wichita State 78 - Central Florida 71 0.699 Wichita State 93 - Central Florida 88 2
Wofford 74 - Mercer 68 0.689 Wofford 72 - Mercer 69 3
Wright State 81 - Robert Morris 58 0.902 Wright State 86 - Robert Morris 56 -7
Youngstown State 71 - Detroit 72 0.549 Youngstown State 72 - Detroit 77 4

GAMES OF 1-31

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 77 - Middle Tennessee 54 0.907 Alabama Birmingham 63 - Middle Tennessee 52 12
Binghamton 63 - New Hampshire 73 0.776 Binghamton 65 - New Hampshire 71 -4
Bucknell 72 - Lehigh 68 0.634 Bucknell 92 - Lehigh 68 -20
Delaware 68 - Elon 64 0.633 Delaware 75 - Elon 70 -1
Drake 85 - Illinois State 60 0.956 Drake 78 - Illinois State 76 23
Eastern Washington 74 - Sacramento State 66 0.78 Eastern Washington 68 - Sacramento State 60 0
Evansville 68 - Valparaiso 67 0.537 Evansville 70 - Valparaiso 52 -17
Fairleigh Dickinson 67 - Bryant 82 0.907 Fairleigh Dickinson 95 - Bryant 84 -26
Holy Cross 64 - Colgate 85 0.843 Holy Cross 60 - Colgate 78 -3
Houston 81 - Southern Methodist 69 0.859 Houston 70 - Southern Methodist 48 -10
Indiana State 70 - Bradley 68 0.555 Indiana State 60 - Bradley 57 -1
James Madison 71 - Drexel 69 0.551 James Madison 73 - Drexel 64 -7
Marist 61 - Siena 71 0.815 Marist 50 - Siena 63 3
Marquette 78 - Saint Johns 75 0.623 Marquette 73 - Saint Johns 75 5
Missouri State 71 - Loyola Ill 74 0.601 Missouri State 46 - Loyola Ill 72 23
Mt St Marys 67 - Sacred Heart 63 0.601 Mt St Marys 76 - Sacred Heart 64 -8
Nevada 73 - Nevada Las Vegas 70 0.602 Nevada 89 - Nevada Las Vegas 60 -26
NJ Tech 64 - UMBC 71 0.705 NJ Tech 69 - UMBC 65 -11
North Carolina AT 70 - Florida AM 73 0.585 North Carolina AT 67 - Florida AM 65 -5
North Texas 73 - Rice 65 0.729 North Texas 79 - Rice 53 -18
Northwestern 74 - Rutgers 77 0.576 Northwestern 56 - Rutgers 64 5
Ohio State 81 - Michigan State 72 0.718 Ohio State 79 - Michigan State 62 -8
Saint Francis Penn 74 - Central Connecticut State 64 0.743 Saint Francis Penn 77 - Central Connecticut State 85 18
Southern Illinois 73 - Northern Iowa 68 0.625 Southern Illinois 71 - Northern Iowa 68 2
Stephen F Austin 71 - Sam Houston State 70 0.532 Stephen F Austin 78 - Sam Houston State 68 -9
Stony Brook 66 - Hartford 67 0.527 Stony Brook 63 - Hartford 49 -15
Syracuse 81 - NC State 72 0.708 Syracuse 76 - NC State 73 6
Temple 74 - Tulane 65 0.817 Temple 64 - Tulane 81 26
Towson 70 - William and Mary 67 0.615 Towson 74 - William and Mary 75 4
UC Riverside 74 - UC San Diego 58 0.866 UC Riverside 71 - UC San Diego 59 4
UNC Wilmington 69 - Hofstra 73 0.611 UNC Wilmington 83 - Hofstra 89 2
Washington 73 - Washington State 72 0.503 Washington 62 - Washington State 77 16


Number of DI Games: 269
Number Correct: 186 = 69.1%
Expected Number Correct: 190.102 = 70.6%
Average Error: 9.25
Average Signed Error: -1.27

GAMES OF 2-1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Drake 83 - Illinois State 61 0.934 Drake 95 - Illinois State 60 -13
Eastern Washington 74 - Sacramento State 65 0.824 Eastern Washington 94 - Sacramento State 79 -6
Evansville 70 - Valparaiso 67 0.568 Evansville 58 - Valparaiso 51 -4
Florida International 86 - Unranked 60 Florida International 90 - Unranked 74
Grambling State 78 - Mississippi Valley State 55 0.923 Grambling State 85 - Mississippi Valley State 72 10
Indiana State 71 - Bradley 67 0.629 Indiana State 67 - Bradley 55 -8
Jackson State 73 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 60 0.772 Jackson State 63 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 55 5
Louisville 75 - Georgia Tech 72 0.577 Louisville 74 - Georgia Tech 58 -13
Memphis 76 - Central Florida 69 0.669 Memphis 96 - Central Florida 69 -20
Miami 69 - Duke 79 0.741 Miami 77 - Duke 75 -12
Missouri State 66 - Loyola Ill 75 0.716 Missouri State 50 - Loyola Ill 70 11
North Carolina Central 80 - South Carolina State 58 0.934 North Carolina Central 91 - South Carolina State 77 8
Prairie View 73 - Alabama State 51 0.953 Prairie View 87 - Alabama State 63 -2
SE Missouri State 65 - Murray State 69 0.606 SE Missouri State 60 - Murray State 77 13
SIU Edwardsville 68 - Austin Peay 69 0.531 SIU Edwardsville 59 - Austin Peay 74 14
Stetson 83 - Unranked 57 Stetson 110 - Unranked 56
Texas Southern 69 - Alabama AM 66 0.59 Texas Southern 66 - Alabama AM 49 -14
Texas Tech 73 - Oklahoma 72 0.53 Texas Tech 57 - Oklahoma 52 -4
Western Carolina 79 - The Citadel 78 0.509 Western Carolina 76 - The Citadel 75 0
Wofford 68 - East Tennessee State 67 0.512 Wofford 67 - East Tennessee State 62 -4

GAMES OF 2-2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 78 - Mississippi State 71 0.664 Arkansas 61 - Mississippi State 45 -9
Auburn 82 - Georgia 73 0.705 Auburn 86 - Georgia 91 14
Ball State 71 - Buffalo 75 0.603 Ball State 58 - Buffalo 78 16
Central Michigan 69 - Ohio 79 0.711 Central Michigan 69 - Ohio 83 4
Clemson 72 - North Carolina 73 0.532 Clemson 63 - North Carolina 50 -14
Coppin State 67 - Morgan State 72 0.654 Coppin State 82 - Morgan State 95 8
Duquesne 67 - Dayton 72 0.621 Duquesne 69 - Dayton 64 -10
Indiana 75 - Illinois 79 0.621 Indiana 71 - Illinois 75 0
Iowa 86 - Michigan State 73 0.776 Iowa 84 - Michigan State 78 7
Iowa State 66 - West Virginia 83 0.867 Iowa State 72 - West Virginia 76 -13
Jacksonville State 71 - Eastern Kentucky 74 0.597 Jacksonville State 82 - Eastern Kentucky 86 1
Kansas 82 - Kansas State 62 0.917 Kansas 74 - Kansas State 51 -3
Kent State 77 - Miami OH 66 0.793 Kent State 77 - Miami OH 68 2
Marquette 73 - Butler 68 0.665 Marquette 70 - Butler 67 2
Maryland 73 - Purdue 74 0.549 Maryland 61 - Purdue 60 -2
Mississippi 65 - Tennessee 73 0.703 Mississippi 52 - Tennessee 50 -10
Nevada 75 - Nevada Las Vegas 69 0.633 Nevada 72 - Nevada Las Vegas 62 -4
NJ Tech 66 - UMBC 69 0.617 NJ Tech 71 - UMBC 75 1
North Carolina Central 80 - South Carolina State 58 0.934 North Carolina Central 64 - South Carolina State 63 21
Notre Dame 78 - Wake Forest 71 0.708 Notre Dame 79 - Wake Forest 58 -14
SIU Edwardsville 72 - Eastern Illinois 65 0.64 SIU Edwardsville 61 - Eastern Illinois 70 16
Stanford 71 - Southern California 75 0.59 Stanford 66 - Southern California 72 2
Texas 73 - Baylor 78 0.637 Texas 69 - Baylor 83 9
Toledo 75 - Akron 68 0.658 Toledo 91 - Akron 76 -8
Troy 82 - Unranked 55 Troy 90 - Unranked 73
Wisconsin 79 - Penn State 74 0.63 Wisconsin 72 - Penn State 56 -11

GAMES OF 2-3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 83 - Louisiana State 74 0.696 Alabama 78 - Louisiana State 60 -9
Bowling Green 77 - Western Michigan 62 0.848 Bowling Green 70 - Western Michigan 76 21
Creighton 83 - Georgetown 68 0.87 Creighton 79 - Georgetown 86 22
Delaware State 78 - Unranked 66 Delaware State 81 - Unranked 80
East Carolina 59 - Houston 82 0.961 East Carolina 82 - Houston 73 -32
Florida 84 - South Carolina 71 0.757 Florida 66 - South Carolina 72 19
James Madison 75 - Elon 61 0.853 James Madison 78 - Elon 57 -7
La Salle 67 - Saint Louis 78 0.757 La Salle 82 - Saint Louis 75 -18
Lamar 67 - Incarnate Word 64 0.584 Lamar 58 - Incarnate Word 67 12
Massachusetts 79 - Fordham 61 0.873 Massachusetts 60 - Fordham 54 12
Memphis 76 - Central Florida 69 0.669 Memphis 75 - Central Florida 61 -7
Mercer 67 - East Tennessee State 71 0.616 Mercer 64 - East Tennessee State 70 2
Missouri 76 - Kentucky 70 0.669 Missouri 75 - Kentucky 70 1
NC State 67 - Virginia 78 0.764 NC State 57 - Virginia 64 -4
Pittsburgh 69 - Virginia Tech 76 0.667 Pittsburgh 83 - Virginia Tech 72 -18
Providence 74 - Seton Hall 75 0.512 Providence 43 - Seton Hall 60 16
Rhode Island 71 - Virginia Commonwealth 73 0.549 Rhode Island 62 - Virginia Commonwealth 63 -1
Saint Johns 73 - Villanova 83 0.85 Saint Johns 70 - Villanova 59 -21
Texas AM CC 58 - Stephen F Austin 75 0.866 Texas AM CC 75 - Stephen F Austin 84 -8
Texas Christian 71 - Oklahoma State 77 0.692 Texas Christian 81 - Oklahoma State 78 -9
The Citadel 69 - UNC Greensboro 79 0.773 The Citadel 66 - UNC Greensboro 85 9
Tulsa 72 - Southern Methodist 73 0.535 Tulsa 63 - Southern Methodist 65 1
Western Carolina 69 - Chattanooga 73 0.648 Western Carolina 67 - Chattanooga 74 3
Wichita State 80 - Tulane 67 0.84 Wichita State 75 - Tulane 67 5
Wofford 76 - Virginia Military Institute 66 0.764 Wofford 80 - Virginia Military Institute 84 14

GAMES OF 2-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
California 66 - Stanford 76 0.744 California 55 - Stanford 70 5
Eastern Illinois 62 - Belmont 80 0.869 Eastern Illinois 61 - Belmont 89 10
Eastern Kentucky 77 - Austin Peay 67 0.787 Eastern Kentucky 79 - Austin Peay 94 25
Fresno State 61 - Utah State 75 0.836 Fresno State 53 - Utah State 69 2
Gardner Webb 70 - Presbyterian 61 0.735 Gardner Webb 59 - Presbyterian 53 3
Idaho 60 - Eastern Washington 79 0.946 Idaho 75 - Eastern Washington 89 -5
Iowa 81 - Ohio State 80 0.549 Iowa 85 - Ohio State 89 5
LIU Brooklyn 77 - Fairleigh Dickinson 67 0.763 LIU Brooklyn 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 78 18
Merrimack 69 - Saint Francis Penn 65 0.61 Merrimack 68 - Saint Francis Penn 62 -2
Morehead State 69 - Murray State 61 0.7 Morehead State 66 - Murray State 56 -2
Oregon 78 - Washington State 65 0.793 Oregon 71 - Washington State 74 16
Oregon State 77 - Washington 69 0.68 Oregon State 91 - Washington 71 -12
Pacific 66 - Gonzaga 86 0.904 Pacific 58 - Gonzaga 76 -2
Portland 61 - Brigham Young 85 0.954 Portland 60 - Brigham Young 105 21
Portland State 65 - Montana 68 0.574 Portland State 64 - Montana 70 3
Radford 73 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.862 Radford 63 - South Carolina Upstate 61 10
Rutgers 77 - Minnesota 73 0.572 Rutgers 76 - Minnesota 72 0
Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 - Wagner 68 0.56 Saint Francis Brooklyn 67 - Wagner 74 9
SE Missouri State 71 - Tennessee Tech 65 0.676 SE Missouri State 68 - Tennessee Tech 64 2
SIU Edwardsville 70 - Tennessee State 62 0.682 SIU Edwardsville 68 - Tennessee State 60 0
Temple 74 - Cincinnati 73 0.542 Temple 60 - Cincinnati 63 4
Tennessee Martin 61 - Jacksonville State 74 0.819 Tennessee Martin 70 - Jacksonville State 82 -1
Utah 71 - Arizona 76 0.639 Utah 73 - Arizona 58 -20
Weber State 72 - Montana State 67 0.644 Weber State 96 - Montana State 88 -3
Wyoming 67 - Colorado State 80 0.794 Wyoming 72 - Colorado State 74 -11

GAMES OF 2-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 74 - Texas El Paso 62 0.769 Alabama Birmingham 63 - Texas El Paso 51 0
Arkansas State 65 - UL Lafayette 75 0.778 Arkansas State 95 - UL Lafayette 87 -18
Bellarmine 74 - Jacksonville 63 0.825 Bellarmine 71 - Jacksonville 56 -4
Cal State Northridge 74 - UC Davis 72 0.534 Cal State Northridge 80 - UC Davis 77 -1
Dayton 75 - George Mason 64 0.765 Dayton 74 - George Mason 65 2
Denver 65 - North Dakota 71 0.674 Denver 82 - North Dakota 85 -3
Detroit 76 - IPFW 69 0.702 Detroit 82 - IPFW 72 -3
Dixie State 66 - Seattle 71 0.624 Dixie State 77 - Seattle 76 -6
Florida Gulf Coast 68 - North Alabama 69 0.522 Florida Gulf Coast 86 - North Alabama 60 -27
Florida International 74 - Texas San Antonio 75 0.511 Florida International 80 - Texas San Antonio 87 6
Gardner Webb 70 - Presbyterian 61 0.735 Gardner Webb 91 - Presbyterian 64 -18
Green Bay 72 - IUPUI 67 0.666 Green Bay 71 - IUPUI 80 14
Hawaii 75 - Cal Poly 58 0.897 Hawaii 84 - Cal Poly 68 1
Illinois Chicago 62 - Wright State 76 0.779 Illinois Chicago 47 - Wright State 72 11
Kent State 73 - Akron 70 0.575 Kent State 61 - Akron 72 14
Liberty 88 - Unranked 50 Liberty 90 - Unranked 49
LIU Brooklyn 77 - Fairleigh Dickinson 67 0.763 LIU Brooklyn 62 - Fairleigh Dickinson 77 25
Manhattan 64 - Monmouth 74 0.76 Manhattan 65 - Monmouth 70 -5
Merrimack 69 - Saint Francis Penn 65 0.61 Merrimack 59 - Saint Francis Penn 54 -1
Middle Tennessee 60 - Charlotte 69 0.73 Middle Tennessee 66 - Charlotte 65 -10
Milwaukee 69 - Northern Kentucky 68 0.533 Milwaukee 73 - Northern Kentucky 87 15
Nevada 68 - Boise State 75 0.645 Nevada 74 - Boise State 72 -9
New Hampshire 68 - UMass Lowell 69 0.521 New Hampshire 69 - UMass Lowell 74 4
New Mexico State 68 - Cal Baptist 66 0.547 New Mexico State 75 - Cal Baptist 85 12
North Dakota State 72 - Oral Roberts 69 0.626 North Dakota State 61 - Oral Roberts 54 -4
North Texas 69 - Louisiana Tech 66 0.587 North Texas 63 - Louisiana Tech 68 8
Oakland 68 - Cleveland State 70 0.548 Oakland 72 - Cleveland State 80 6
Old Dominion 67 - Marshall 73 0.679 Old Dominion 82 - Marshall 81 -7
Omaha 74 - Western Illinois 70 0.616 Omaha 77 - Western Illinois 85 12
Penn State 79 - Maryland 75 0.595 Penn State 55 - Maryland 50 -1
Radford 73 - South Carolina Upstate 61 0.862 Radford 102 - South Carolina Upstate 66 -24
Rice 72 - Southern Miss 67 0.649 Rice 88 - Southern Miss 62 -21
Robert Morris 68 - Youngstown State 69 0.506 Robert Morris 78 - Youngstown State 84 5
Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 - Wagner 68 0.56 Saint Francis Brooklyn 81 - Wagner 84 5
South Alabama 68 - Coastal Carolina 73 0.642 South Alabama 71 - Coastal Carolina 65 -11
South Dakota State 76 - South Dakota 69 0.672 South Dakota State 56 - South Dakota 64 15
Stetson 67 - Lipscomb 68 0.532 Stetson 73 - Lipscomb 68 -6
Texas Arlington 72 - UL Monroe 63 0.779 Texas Arlington 63 - UL Monroe 56 2
Texas State 67 - Arkansas Little Rock 64 0.616 Texas State 57 - Arkansas Little Rock 47 -7
Troy 67 - Georgia Southern 65 0.538 Troy 68 - Georgia Southern 56 -10
UC Irvine 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 63 0.672 UC Irvine 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 53 -10

GAMES OF 2-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 81 - Mississippi Valley State 54 0.93 Alabama AM 93 - Mississippi Valley State 58 -8
Alabama Birmingham 74 - Texas El Paso 62 0.769 Alabama Birmingham 75 - Texas El Paso 60 -3
Alabama State 64 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 0.529 Alabama State 73 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 67 -5
Alcorn State 65 - Jackson State 68 0.577 Alcorn State 66 - Jackson State 74 5
Arkansas State 65 - UL Lafayette 75 0.778 Arkansas State 83 - UL Lafayette 77 -16
Auburn 76 - Mississippi 70 0.679 Auburn 84 - Mississippi 86 8
Ball State 66 - Toledo 78 0.805 Ball State 81 - Toledo 67 -26
Bellarmine 74 - Jacksonville 63 0.825 Bellarmine 63 - Jacksonville 44 -8
Boston College 76 - NC State 79 0.577 Boston College 65 - NC State 81 13
Bradley 73 - Southern Illinois 67 0.673 Bradley 74 - Southern Illinois 66 -2
Buffalo 76 - Miami OH 70 0.658 Buffalo 88 - Miami OH 64 -18
Butler 73 - DePaul 68 0.671 Butler 68 - DePaul 58 -5
Cal State Northridge 74 - UC Davis 72 0.534 Cal State Northridge 63 - UC Davis 75 14
Central Arkansas 75 - Mcneese State 65 0.778 Central Arkansas 70 - Mcneese State 80 20
Central Michigan 72 - Western Michigan 67 0.663 Central Michigan 65 - Western Michigan 67 7
Clemson 73 - Syracuse 72 0.533 Clemson 78 - Syracuse 61 -16
College of Charleston 71 - Towson 65 0.739 College of Charleston 90 - Towson 88 4
Colorado 76 - Arizona 73 0.579 Colorado 82 - Arizona 79 0
Connecticut 75 - Seton Hall 72 0.613 Connecticut 73 - Seton Hall 80 10
Denver 65 - North Dakota 71 0.674 Denver 85 - North Dakota 81 -10
Detroit 76 - IPFW 69 0.702 Detroit 83 - IPFW 56 -20
Dixie State 66 - Seattle 71 0.624 Dixie State 56 - Seattle 77 16
Duke 77 - North Carolina 76 0.524 Duke 87 - North Carolina 91 5
East Tennessee State 72 - Chattanooga 63 0.788 East Tennessee State 65 - Chattanooga 67 11
Eastern Illinois 67 - Tennessee State 64 0.582 Eastern Illinois 86 - Tennessee State 72 -11
Eastern Kentucky 75 - Murray State 67 0.727 Eastern Kentucky 64 - Murray State 76 20
Eastern Washington 81 - Idaho 58 0.964 Eastern Washington 90 - Idaho 64 -3
Florida Gulf Coast 68 - North Alabama 69 0.522 Florida Gulf Coast 69 - North Alabama 60 -10
Florida International 74 - Texas San Antonio 75 0.511 Florida International 47 - Texas San Antonio 90 42
Fordham 63 - La Salle 71 0.668 Fordham 76 - La Salle 68 -16
Furman 72 - Wofford 69 0.594 Furman 67 - Wofford 75 11
Georgia 79 - Vanderbilt 73 0.658 Georgia 73 - Vanderbilt 70 3
Georgia Tech 78 - Notre Dame 73 0.647 Georgia Tech 82 - Notre Dame 80 3
Green Bay 72 - IUPUI 67 0.666 Green Bay 79 - IUPUI 72 -2
Hawaii 75 - Cal Poly 58 0.897 Hawaii 81 - Cal Poly 64 0
Hofstra 72 - Drexel 66 0.688 Hofstra 71 - Drexel 73 8
Houston 100 - Unranked 42 Houston 112 - Unranked 46
Illinois 78 - Wisconsin 73 0.634 Illinois 75 - Wisconsin 60 -10
Illinois Chicago 62 - Wright State 76 0.779 Illinois Chicago 57 - Wright State 77 6
Illinois State 68 - Missouri State 77 0.744 Illinois State 67 - Missouri State 74 -2
Kansas State 62 - Texas Tech 79 0.919 Kansas State 62 - Texas Tech 73 -6
Kentucky 68 - Tennessee 73 0.631 Kentucky 71 - Tennessee 82 6
Lamar 56 - Abilene Christian 73 0.876 Lamar 62 - Abilene Christian 77 -2
Loyola Ill 79 - Evansville 56 0.913 Loyola Ill 68 - Evansville 55 10
Manhattan 64 - Monmouth 74 0.76 Manhattan 69 - Monmouth 71 -8
Marquette 72 - Creighton 79 0.711 Marquette 68 - Creighton 71 -4
Memphis 77 - East Carolina 64 0.843 Memphis 66 - East Carolina 59 6
Miami 66 - Virginia Tech 78 0.794 Miami 76 - Virginia Tech 80 -8
Michigan State 80 - Nebraska 71 0.71 Michigan State 66 - Nebraska 56 -1
Middle Tennessee 60 - Charlotte 69 0.73 Middle Tennessee 73 - Charlotte 60 -22
Milwaukee 69 - Northern Kentucky 68 0.533 Milwaukee 65 - Northern Kentucky 79 15
Missouri 75 - Alabama 78 0.575 Missouri 68 - Alabama 65 -6
Morehead State 70 - Austin Peay 61 0.756 Morehead State 75 - Austin Peay 74 8
Morgan State 82 - Delaware State 60 0.93 Morgan State 74 - Delaware State 69 17
Nevada Las Vegas 76 - Air Force 62 0.803 Nevada Las Vegas 68 - Air Force 58 4
New Hampshire 68 - UMass Lowell 69 0.521 New Hampshire 74 - UMass Lowell 63 -12
New Mexico State 68 - Cal Baptist 66 0.547 New Mexico State 97 - Cal Baptist 70 -25
North Dakota State 72 - Oral Roberts 69 0.626 North Dakota State 74 - Oral Roberts 80 9
North Texas 69 - Louisiana Tech 66 0.587 North Texas 57 - Louisiana Tech 55 1
Northern Iowa 69 - Indiana State 73 0.618 Northern Iowa 57 - Indiana State 61 0
Oakland 68 - Cleveland State 70 0.548 Oakland 78 - Cleveland State 80 0
Oklahoma 85 - Iowa State 63 0.899 Oklahoma 79 - Iowa State 72 15
Oklahoma State 74 - Texas 76 0.574 Oklahoma State 75 - Texas 67 -10
Old Dominion 67 - Marshall 73 0.679 Old Dominion 67 - Marshall 87 14
Omaha 74 - Western Illinois 70 0.616 Omaha 77 - Western Illinois 85 12
Oregon 83 - Washington 66 0.856 Oregon 86 - Washington 74 5
Oregon State 72 - Washington State 69 0.58 Oregon State 68 - Washington State 66 1
Portland 67 - Pepperdine 80 0.799 Portland 70 - Pepperdine 91 8
Portland State 65 - Montana 68 0.574 Portland State 61 - Montana 56 -8
Providence 79 - Saint Johns 76 0.607 Providence 81 - Saint Johns 92 14
Purdue 81 - Northwestern 68 0.827 Purdue 75 - Northwestern 70 8
Rhode Island 78 - Massachusetts 72 0.676 Rhode Island 63 - Massachusetts 75 18
Rice 72 - Southern Miss 67 0.649 Rice 76 - Southern Miss 68 -3
Robert Morris 68 - Youngstown State 69 0.506 Robert Morris 66 - Youngstown State 70 3
Saint Louis 71 - Saint Bonaventure 73 0.552 Saint Louis 70 - Saint Bonaventure 59 -13
Sam Houston State 72 - Nicholls State 68 0.644 Sam Houston State 78 - Nicholls State 71 -3
SE Missouri State 65 - Jacksonville State 71 0.669 SE Missouri State 54 - Jacksonville State 66 6
SIU Edwardsville 64 - Belmont 78 0.779 SIU Edwardsville 62 - Belmont 94 18
South Alabama 68 - Coastal Carolina 73 0.642 South Alabama 70 - Coastal Carolina 66 -9
South Carolina 75 - Mississippi State 76 0.526 South Carolina 59 - Mississippi State 75 15
South Dakota State 76 - South Dakota 69 0.672 South Dakota State 89 - South Dakota 78 -4
Southern 66 - Grambling State 62 0.62 Southern 69 - Grambling State 72 7
Southern California 75 - UCLA 72 0.608 Southern California 66 - UCLA 48 -15
Southern Utah 88 - Unranked 58 Southern Utah 110 - Unranked 58
Stetson 67 - Lipscomb 68 0.532 Stetson 61 - Lipscomb 69 7
Tarleton State 78 - Unranked 57 Tarleton State 97 - Unranked 26
Tennessee Martin 67 - Tennessee Tech 69 0.545 Tennessee Martin 66 - Tennessee Tech 64 -4
Texas AM CC 63 - Incarnate Word 65 0.548 Texas AM CC 53 - Incarnate Word 58 3
Texas Arlington 72 - UL Monroe 63 0.779 Texas Arlington 58 - UL Monroe 52 3
Texas Southern 68 - Texas Pan American 70 0.545 Texas Southern 77 - Texas Pan American 75 -4
Texas State 67 - Arkansas Little Rock 64 0.616 Texas State 77 - Arkansas Little Rock 67 -7
The Citadel 80 - Western Carolina 76 0.609 The Citadel 74 - Western Carolina 63 -7
Troy 67 - Georgia Southern 65 0.538 Troy 64 - Georgia Southern 79 17
Tulsa 74 - Central Florida 70 0.609 Tulsa 58 - Central Florida 65 11
UC Irvine 70 - Cal State Bakersfield 63 0.672 UC Irvine 57 - Cal State Bakersfield 62 12
Valparaiso 62 - Drake 80 0.89 Valparaiso 77 - Drake 80 -15
Virginia 78 - Pittsburgh 63 0.801 Virginia 73 - Pittsburgh 66 8
Weber State 72 - Montana State 67 0.644 Weber State 82 - Montana State 74 -3
West Virginia 76 - Kansas 73 0.585 West Virginia 91 - Kansas 79 -9
Wyoming 67 - Colorado State 80 0.794 Wyoming 59 - Colorado State 68 -4

GAMES OF 2-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bradley 73 - Southern Illinois 67 0.673 Bradley 68 - Southern Illinois 69 7
College of Charleston 71 - Towson 65 0.739 College of Charleston 66 - Towson 53 -7
Fairfield 64 - Quinnipiac 67 0.598 Fairfield 63 - Quinnipiac 78 12
Hampton 69 - High Point 67 0.537 Hampton 58 - High Point 72 16
Hofstra 72 - Drexel 66 0.688 Hofstra 79 - Drexel 74 1
Illinois State 68 - Missouri State 77 0.744 Illinois State 62 - Missouri State 72 1
Indiana 78 - Iowa 81 0.594 Indiana 67 - Iowa 65 -5
Loyola Ill 79 - Evansville 56 0.913 Loyola Ill 69 - Evansville 58 12
Loyola MD 68 - Lafayette 74 0.686 Loyola MD 75 - Lafayette 62 -19
Nevada 68 - Boise State 75 0.645 Nevada 73 - Boise State 62 -18
Norfolk State 71 - Coppin State 65 0.664 Norfolk State 84 - Coppin State 72 -6
Northern Iowa 69 - Indiana State 73 0.618 Northern Iowa 70 - Indiana State 67 -7
Stanford 78 - California 64 0.824 Stanford 76 - California 70 8
Stony Brook 65 - UMBC 67 0.561 Stony Brook 65 - UMBC 71 4
Tulane 71 - Cincinnati 73 0.573 Tulane 61 - Cincinnati 64 1
UC San Diego 81 - Unranked 59 UC San Diego 101 - Unranked 64
Valparaiso 62 - Drake 80 0.89 Valparaiso 74 - Drake 57 -35
Villanova 85 - Georgetown 65 0.961 Villanova 84 - Georgetown 74 10
Wichita State 80 - Temple 71 0.769 Wichita State 70 - Temple 67 6


Number of DI Games: 247
Number Correct: 166 = 67.2%
Expected Number Correct: 169.906 = 68.7%
Average Error: 9.11
Average Signed Error: 0.24

GAMES OF 2-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 71 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 59 0.778 Alabama AM 56 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 55 11
Alabama State 73 - Mississippi Valley State 58 0.835 Alabama State 65 - Mississippi Valley State 68 18
Alcorn State 64 - Grambling State 67 0.568 Alcorn State 62 - Grambling State 67 2
Brigham Young 72 - Gonzaga 81 0.746 Brigham Young 71 - Gonzaga 82 2
Colorado 79 - Oregon State 67 0.783 Colorado 78 - Oregon State 49 -17
East Carolina 69 - Southern Methodist 76 0.72 East Carolina 56 - Southern Methodist 71 8
Fairfield 63 - Quinnipiac 69 0.679 Fairfield 77 - Quinnipiac 70 -13
Florida AM 67 - North Carolina Central 68 0.54 Florida AM 59 - North Carolina Central 50 -10
Furman 71 - UNC Greensboro 70 0.503 Furman 68 - UNC Greensboro 49 -18
Hampton 67 - High Point 68 0.517 Hampton 76 - High Point 71 -6
Kansas 76 - Oklahoma State 74 0.571 Kansas 78 - Oklahoma State 66 -10
Lafayette 73 - Loyola MD 68 0.628 Lafayette 80 - Loyola MD 76 1
LIU Brooklyn 74 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 67 0.674 LIU Brooklyn 96 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 84 -5
Maryland 72 - Ohio State 77 0.631 Maryland 65 - Ohio State 73 3
Mercer 76 - Samford 68 0.721 Mercer 89 - Samford 82 1
Minnesota 83 - Nebraska 69 0.788 Minnesota 79 - Nebraska 61 -4
Nevada Las Vegas 75 - Air Force 62 0.817 Nevada Las Vegas 69 - Air Force 64 8
Norfolk State 71 - Coppin State 63 0.716 Norfolk State 64 - Coppin State 74 18
San Diego State 88 - San Jose State 56 0.96 San Diego State 85 - San Jose State 54 1
SIU Edwardsville 67 - Eastern Kentucky 76 0.729 SIU Edwardsville 74 - Eastern Kentucky 78 -5
South Carolina Upstate 66 - Gardner Webb 73 0.682 South Carolina Upstate 77 - Gardner Webb 69 -15
Southern 63 - Jackson State 64 0.521 Southern 53 - Jackson State 57 3
Stony Brook 65 - UMBC 68 0.617 Stony Brook 48 - UMBC 60 9
Tennessee Martin 62 - Austin Peay 74 0.791 Tennessee Martin 76 - Austin Peay 75 -13
Texas AM CC 52 - Abilene Christian 74 0.926 Texas AM CC 69 - Abilene Christian 82 -9
Youngstown State 85 - Unranked 59 Youngstown State 60 - Unranked 50

GAMES OF 2-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bowling Green 71 - Kent State 76 0.634 Bowling Green 67 - Kent State 71 -1
Butler 71 - Saint Johns 76 0.647 Butler 76 - Saint Johns 73 -8
Dayton 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 71 0.535 Dayton 67 - Virginia Commonwealth 76 8
Duke 79 - Notre Dame 75 0.601 Duke 89 - Notre Dame 93 8
Elon 62 - James Madison 74 0.816 Elon 61 - James Madison 70 -3
Florida AM 67 - North Carolina Central 68 0.54 Florida AM 60 - North Carolina Central 47 -14
Georgetown 73 - Creighton 80 0.696 Georgetown 48 - Creighton 63 8
Georgia State 74 - South Alabama 68 0.651 Georgia State 67 - South Alabama 70 9
Kansas State 64 - Texas 81 0.901 Kansas State 77 - Texas 80 -14
Kentucky 72 - Arkansas 76 0.584 Kentucky 80 - Arkansas 81 -3
Michigan State 75 - Penn State 78 0.58 Michigan State 60 - Penn State 58 -5
NC State 75 - Syracuse 77 0.544 NC State 68 - Syracuse 77 7
Saint Bonaventure 79 - La Salle 63 0.845 Saint Bonaventure 86 - La Salle 73 3
South Carolina 71 - Alabama 83 0.742 South Carolina 78 - Alabama 81 -9
Southern Utah 88 - Unranked 57 Southern Utah 109 - Unranked 50
Tarleton State 79 - Unranked 57 Tarleton State 112 - Unranked 54
Texas Christian 79 - Iowa State 69 0.73 Texas Christian 79 - Iowa State 76 7
Texas Tech 75 - West Virginia 73 0.579 Texas Tech 71 - West Virginia 82 13
Vanderbilt 74 - Auburn 81 0.727 Vanderbilt 67 - Auburn 73 -1

GAMES OF 2-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 79 - Houston Baptist 58 0.921 Abilene Christian 88 - Houston Baptist 59 -8
Boston College 75 - Wake Forest 76 0.514 Boston College 65 - Wake Forest 69 3
Central Florida 73 - Wichita State 78 0.644 Central Florida 60 - Wichita State 61 -4
Charlotte 65 - Old Dominion 66 0.529 Charlotte 76 - Old Dominion 78 1
Drake 80 - Northern Iowa 66 0.812 Drake 80 - Northern Iowa 59 -7
George Mason 73 - Fordham 62 0.74 George Mason 77 - Fordham 45 -21
Georgia Tech 69 - Virginia 75 0.651 Georgia Tech 49 - Virginia 57 2
Incarnate Word 69 - Northwestern State 67 0.554 Incarnate Word 67 - Northwestern State 68 3
Iowa 81 - Rutgers 76 0.623 Iowa 79 - Rutgers 66 -8
Lamar 63 - Nicholls State 72 0.771 Lamar 71 - Nicholls State 76 -4
Mississippi 70 - Missouri 74 0.632 Mississippi 80 - Missouri 59 -25
Mississippi State 75 - Louisiana State 76 0.527 Mississippi State 80 - Louisiana State 94 13
Missouri State 76 - Southern Illinois 67 0.771 Missouri State 65 - Southern Illinois 53 -3
Nebraska 66 - Wisconsin 81 0.826 Nebraska 48 - Wisconsin 61 -2
Northwestern 73 - Indiana 78 0.675 Northwestern 76 - Indiana 79 -2
Providence 71 - Connecticut 74 0.596 Providence 70 - Connecticut 59 -14
Saint Louis 76 - Rhode Island 71 0.639 Saint Louis 67 - Rhode Island 60 -2
Sam Houston State 76 - Southeast Louisiana 60 0.875 Sam Houston State 79 - Southeast Louisiana 61 -2
Samford 70 - Mercer 74 0.615 Samford 70 - Mercer 77 3
San Diego State 88 - San Jose State 56 0.96 San Diego State 77 - San Jose State 55 10
San Francisco 75 - Pepperdine 70 0.618 San Francisco 68 - Pepperdine 76 13
South Florida 64 - Houston 77 0.858 South Florida 65 - Houston 82 4
Stephen F Austin 77 - Texas AM CC 57 0.918 Stephen F Austin 80 - Texas AM CC 68 8
Tennessee 80 - Georgia 68 0.77 Tennessee 89 - Georgia 81 4
The Citadel 68 - East Tennessee State 77 0.764 The Citadel 79 - East Tennessee State 71 -17
Tulsa 74 - Tulane 65 0.743 Tulsa 48 - Tulane 58 19
UNC Greensboro 72 - Furman 68 0.601 UNC Greensboro 64 - Furman 58 -2
Valparaiso 68 - Bradley 71 0.57 Valparaiso 52 - Bradley 76 21
Villanova 81 - Marquette 67 0.89 Villanova 96 - Marquette 64 -18
Western Carolina 71 - Virginia Military Institute 76 0.645 Western Carolina 74 - Virginia Military Institute 72 -7
Wofford 72 - Chattanooga 65 0.717 Wofford 66 - Chattanooga 78 19

GAMES OF 2-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 64 - Fresno State 69 0.669 Air Force 63 - Fresno State 69 1
Arizona 78 - Oregon State 70 0.706 Arizona 70 - Oregon State 61 -1
Arizona State 74 - Oregon 79 0.664 Arizona State 64 - Oregon 75 6
Austin Peay 76 - Tennessee Martin 60 0.857 Austin Peay 71 - Tennessee Martin 50 -5
Belmont 80 - Eastern Kentucky 69 0.77 Belmont 92 - Eastern Kentucky 74 -7
Boise State 77 - Nevada Las Vegas 65 0.767 Boise State 78 - Nevada Las Vegas 66 0
California 67 - Utah 74 0.695 California 75 - Utah 76 -6
Campbell 72 - South Carolina Upstate 65 0.679 Campbell 72 - South Carolina Upstate 71 6
Central Connecticut State 63 - Merrimack 68 0.67 Central Connecticut State 46 - Merrimack 62 11
Georgia State 74 - Georgia Southern 66 0.705 Georgia State 79 - Georgia Southern 75 4
Hampton 68 - Presbyterian 63 0.641 Hampton 70 - Presbyterian 85 20
High Point 72 - Charleston Southern 59 0.775 High Point 77 - Charleston Southern 73 9
Idaho State 72 - Idaho 59 0.831 Idaho State 69 - Idaho 43 -13
Jacksonville State 75 - Eastern Illinois 62 0.81 Jacksonville State 76 - Eastern Illinois 64 1
Kansas 83 - Iowa State 65 0.856 Kansas 97 - Iowa State 64 -15
Longwood 65 - Gardner Webb 68 0.581 Longwood 57 - Gardner Webb 54 -6
Minnesota 74 - Purdue 77 0.551 Minnesota 71 - Purdue 68 -6
Montana 66 - Weber State 72 0.684 Montana 80 - Weber State 67 -19
Montana State 71 - Eastern Washington 72 0.541 Montana State 77 - Eastern Washington 93 15
Mt St Marys 66 - LIU Brooklyn 64 0.564 Mt St Marys 66 - LIU Brooklyn 60 -4
Pacific 80 - Portland 62 0.876 Pacific 84 - Portland 57 -9
Radford 68 - Winthrop 72 0.652 Radford 64 - Winthrop 80 12
Saint Francis Penn 72 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 0.584 Saint Francis Penn 67 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 6
South Alabama 70 - Troy 64 0.645 South Alabama 73 - Troy 70 3
Stanford 72 - Colorado 74 0.571 Stanford 51 - Colorado 69 16
Tennessee State 56 - Morehead State 72 0.889 Tennessee State 66 - Morehead State 79 -3
Tennessee Tech 67 - SIU Edwardsville 68 0.51 Tennessee Tech 63 - SIU Edwardsville 81 17
Texas Arlington 64 - Texas State 68 0.633 Texas Arlington 56 - Texas State 63 3
UL Lafayette 74 - UL Monroe 61 0.857 UL Lafayette 66 - UL Monroe 72 19
Wagner 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 69 0.547 Wagner 76 - Fairleigh Dickinson 72 -3
Washington 65 - Southern California 84 0.874 Washington 54 - Southern California 69 -4
Washington State 68 - UCLA 75 0.707 Washington State 81 - UCLA 73 -15

GAMES OF 2-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Albany 72 - UMass Lowell 68 0.623 Albany 71 - UMass Lowell 79 12
Arkansas State 69 - Arkansas Little Rock 71 0.586 Arkansas State 73 - Arkansas Little Rock 62 -13
Buffalo 79 - Western Michigan 62 0.899 Buffalo 86 - Western Michigan 54 -15
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - UC San Diego 60 0.818 Cal State Bakersfield 76 - UC San Diego 71 9
Campbell 72 - South Carolina Upstate 65 0.679 Campbell 64 - South Carolina Upstate 49 -8
Central Connecticut State 63 - Merrimack 68 0.67 Central Connecticut State 52 - Merrimack 72 15
Central Florida 75 - Tulane 68 0.704 Central Florida 53 - Tulane 49 3
Cincinnati 75 - Temple 70 0.708 Cincinnati 71 - Temple 69 3
Clemson 75 - Georgia Tech 70 0.599 Clemson 74 - Georgia Tech 72 3
Cleveland State 70 - Detroit 66 0.61 Cleveland State 83 - Detroit 89 10
Green Bay 68 - Northern Kentucky 71 0.58 Green Bay 86 - Northern Kentucky 82 -7
Hampton 68 - Presbyterian 63 0.641 Hampton 62 - Presbyterian 57 0
Hawaii 66 - UC Santa Barbara 72 0.669 Hawaii 50 - UC Santa Barbara 59 3
High Point 72 - Charleston Southern 59 0.775 High Point 68 - Charleston Southern 69 14
Iona 70 - Manhattan 59 0.75 Iona 85 - Manhattan 67 -7
IUPUI 67 - Illinois Chicago 68 0.514 IUPUI 89 - Illinois Chicago 69 -21
Jacksonville 63 - Lipscomb 71 0.717 Jacksonville 66 - Lipscomb 60 -14
Kennesaw St 60 - Stetson 71 0.783 Kennesaw St 61 - Stetson 74 2
Liberty 76 - North Florida 61 0.868 Liberty 73 - North Florida 61 3
Longwood 65 - Gardner Webb 68 0.581 Longwood 78 - Gardner Webb 71 -10
Louisiana Tech 67 - Alabama Birmingham 68 0.52 Louisiana Tech 70 - Alabama Birmingham 58 -13
Marshall 79 - Middle Tennessee 61 0.892 Marshall 107 - Middle Tennessee 79 -10
Miami OH 66 - Akron 73 0.659 Miami OH 76 - Akron 83 0
Mt St Marys 66 - LIU Brooklyn 64 0.564 Mt St Marys 64 - LIU Brooklyn 46 -16
Murray State 72 - SE Missouri State 61 0.797 Murray State 80 - SE Missouri State 60 -9
Nebraska 67 - Illinois 86 0.894 Nebraska 72 - Illinois 77 -14
North Alabama 65 - Bellarmine 74 0.734 North Alabama 64 - Bellarmine 66 -7
Portland State 82 - Unranked 57 Portland State 99 - Unranked 66
Quinnipiac 69 - Canisius 68 0.502 Quinnipiac 67 - Canisius 74 8
Radford 68 - Winthrop 72 0.652 Radford 47 - Winthrop 55 4
Robert Morris 69 - Oakland 75 0.659 Robert Morris 88 - Oakland 82 -12
Saint Francis Penn 72 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 0.584 Saint Francis Penn 80 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 66 -11
Seattle 66 - New Mexico State 67 0.52 Seattle 83 - New Mexico State 72 -12
Southern Miss 60 - North Texas 73 0.79 Southern Miss 49 - North Texas 65 3
Texas El Paso 76 - Florida International 66 0.705 Texas El Paso 75 - Florida International 59 -6
Texas San Antonio 74 - Florida Atlantic 71 0.577 Texas San Antonio 84 - Florida Atlantic 80 -1
UC Davis 76 - Long Beach State 71 0.633 UC Davis 68 - Long Beach State 66 3
UC Riverside 65 - UC Irvine 66 0.504 UC Riverside 86 - UC Irvine 65 -22
UMKC 71 - Omaha 62 0.792 UMKC 62 - Omaha 52 -1
Utah Valley 75 - Dixie State 61 0.823 Utah Valley 87 - Dixie State 72 -1
Virginia Commonwealth 71 - Saint Bonaventure 70 0.518 Virginia Commonwealth 67 - Saint Bonaventure 64 -2
Western Illinois 76 - Denver 67 0.759 Western Illinois 75 - Denver 69 3
Western Kentucky 79 - Rice 68 0.801 Western Kentucky 77 - Rice 71 5
Wright State 80 - Milwaukee 59 0.896 Wright State 92 - Milwaukee 81 10
Youngstown State 74 - IPFW 69 0.632 Youngstown State 84 - IPFW 70 -9

GAMES OF 2-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 76 - Texas AM CC 50 0.949 Abilene Christian 83 - Texas AM CC 55 -2
Air Force 64 - Fresno State 69 0.669 Air Force 64 - Fresno State 67 -2
Alabama 85 - Georgia 70 0.81 Alabama 115 - Georgia 82 -18
Alabama State 58 - Alabama AM 66 0.739 Alabama State 72 - Alabama AM 58 -22
Albany 72 - UMass Lowell 68 0.623 Albany 81 - UMass Lowell 69 -8
Arizona 76 - Oregon 74 0.561 Arizona 61 - Oregon 63 4
Arkansas Little Rock 73 - Arkansas State 67 0.707 Arkansas Little Rock 65 - Arkansas State 67 8
Arkansas Pine Bluff 61 - Southern 69 0.675 Arkansas Pine Bluff 71 - Southern 73 -6
Army 70 - Colgate 77 0.637 Army 74 - Colgate 84 3
Austin Peay 73 - SE Missouri State 63 0.784 Austin Peay 78 - SE Missouri State 63 -5
Belmont 73 - Morehead State 65 0.713 Belmont 73 - Morehead State 58 -7
Boise State 77 - Nevada Las Vegas 65 0.767 Boise State 61 - Nevada Las Vegas 59 10
Cal Baptist 72 - Sacramento State 69 0.557 Cal Baptist 83 - Sacramento State 71 -9
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - UC San Diego 60 0.818 Cal State Bakersfield 65 - UC San Diego 50 -1
California 65 - Colorado 78 0.854 California 71 - Colorado 62 -22
Chattanooga 78 - The Citadel 69 0.777 Chattanooga 70 - The Citadel 66 5
Cleveland State 70 - Detroit 66 0.61 Cleveland State 71 - Detroit 64 -3
College of Charleston 72 - Elon 61 0.81 College of Charleston 71 - Elon 53 -7
Creighton 76 - Villanova 77 0.558 Creighton 86 - Villanova 70 -17
DePaul 71 - Providence 76 0.679 DePaul 47 - Providence 57 5
Drake 69 - Loyola Ill 72 0.578 Drake 54 - Loyola Ill 81 24
East Tennessee State 68 - Wofford 67 0.56 East Tennessee State 71 - Wofford 49 -21
Fairleigh Dickinson 71 - Wagner 68 0.567 Fairleigh Dickinson 86 - Wagner 95 12
Florida State 84 - Wake Forest 67 0.86 Florida State 92 - Wake Forest 85 10
Fordham 61 - Saint Louis 78 0.84 Fordham 40 - Saint Louis 68 11
Furman 80 - Western Carolina 65 0.839 Furman 88 - Western Carolina 70 -3
Georgetown 74 - Butler 70 0.624 Georgetown 78 - Butler 63 -11
Grambling State 64 - Texas Southern 68 0.647 Grambling State 73 - Texas Southern 75 -2
Green Bay 68 - Northern Kentucky 71 0.58 Green Bay 66 - Northern Kentucky 71 2
Hartford 69 - NJ Tech 64 0.651 Hartford 57 - NJ Tech 67 15
Hawaii 66 - UC Santa Barbara 72 0.669 Hawaii 74 - UC Santa Barbara 81 1
Holy Cross 69 - Boston 71 0.539 Holy Cross 82 - Boston 65 -19
Houston Baptist 71 - Lamar 68 0.602 Houston Baptist 80 - Lamar 75 -2
Idaho State 72 - Idaho 59 0.831 Idaho State 64 - Idaho 58 7
Iona 70 - Manhattan 59 0.75 Iona 70 - Manhattan 77 18
Iowa State 67 - Kansas 81 0.797 Iowa State 50 - Kansas 64 0
IUPUI 67 - Illinois Chicago 68 0.514 IUPUI 88 - Illinois Chicago 81 -8
Jacksonville 63 - Lipscomb 71 0.717 Jacksonville 69 - Lipscomb 71 -6
Jacksonville State 74 - SIU Edwardsville 62 0.793 Jacksonville State 80 - SIU Edwardsville 60 -8
James Madison 72 - Hofstra 70 0.539 James Madison 93 - Hofstra 89 -2
Kennesaw St 60 - Stetson 71 0.783 Kennesaw St 83 - Stetson 75 -19
Kent State 80 - Northern Illinois 58 0.932 Kent State 80 - Northern Illinois 58 0
Kentucky 76 - Auburn 75 0.521 Kentucky 82 - Auburn 80 -1
Lafayette 73 - Loyola MD 68 0.628 Lafayette 97 - Loyola MD 94 2
Liberty 76 - North Florida 61 0.868 Liberty 80 - North Florida 60 -5
Louisiana State 73 - Tennessee 76 0.57 Louisiana State 78 - Tennessee 65 -16
Louisiana Tech 67 - Alabama Birmingham 68 0.52 Louisiana Tech 69 - Alabama Birmingham 64 -6
Loyola Marymount 69 - Pacific 67 0.563 Loyola Marymount 80 - Pacific 76 -2
Marshall 79 - Middle Tennessee 61 0.892 Marshall 96 - Middle Tennessee 85 7
Mercer 67 - UNC Greensboro 72 0.661 Mercer 74 - UNC Greensboro 77 -2
Michigan State 76 - Iowa 82 0.661 Michigan State 58 - Iowa 88 24
Mississippi State 78 - Vanderbilt 68 0.764 Mississippi State 51 - Vanderbilt 72 31
Mississippi Valley State 61 - Alcorn State 76 0.791 Mississippi Valley State 56 - Alcorn State 70 -1
Missouri 77 - Arkansas 74 0.585 Missouri 81 - Arkansas 86 8
Missouri State 74 - Bradley 68 0.665 Missouri State 80 - Bradley 58 -16
Montana 66 - Weber State 72 0.684 Montana 82 - Weber State 91 3
Montana State 71 - Eastern Washington 72 0.541 Montana State 69 - Eastern Washington 85 15
Morgan State 70 - Norfolk State 66 0.637 Morgan State 69 - Norfolk State 74 9
Murray State 76 - Tennessee Martin 58 0.863 Murray State 84 - Tennessee Martin 55 -11
NC State 76 - Duke 78 0.554 NC State 53 - Duke 69 14
North Alabama 65 - Bellarmine 74 0.734 North Alabama 63 - Bellarmine 87 15
North Dakota 63 - South Dakota 74 0.772 North Dakota 85 - South Dakota 76 -20
Northern Iowa 73 - Valparaiso 69 0.615 Northern Iowa 57 - Valparaiso 70 17
Northwestern State 75 - Mcneese State 66 0.76 Northwestern State 69 - Mcneese State 66 6
Ohio State 80 - Indiana 72 0.722 Ohio State 78 - Indiana 59 -11
Oklahoma State 83 - Kansas State 64 0.94 Oklahoma State 67 - Kansas State 60 12
Old Dominion 68 - Charlotte 63 0.633 Old Dominion 64 - Charlotte 45 -14
Oral Roberts 71 - South Dakota State 76 0.657 Oral Roberts 103 - South Dakota State 86 -22
Pepperdine 67 - Saint Marys 71 0.621 Pepperdine 60 - Saint Marys 58 -6
Quinnipiac 69 - Canisius 68 0.502 Quinnipiac 70 - Canisius 89 20
Robert Morris 69 - Oakland 75 0.659 Robert Morris 81 - Oakland 86 -1
Rutgers 80 - Northwestern 70 0.785 Rutgers 64 - Northwestern 50 -4
Saint Peters 73 - Fairfield 55 0.882 Saint Peters 50 - Fairfield 55 23
Sam Houston State 79 - Central Arkansas 62 0.89 Sam Houston State 97 - Central Arkansas 57 -23
San Francisco 67 - Gonzaga 84 0.885 San Francisco 61 - Gonzaga 100 22
Seattle 66 - New Mexico State 67 0.52 Seattle 58 - New Mexico State 65 6
South Carolina 72 - Mississippi 73 0.536 South Carolina 74 - Mississippi 81 6
Southeast Louisiana 63 - Nicholls State 71 0.741 Southeast Louisiana 84 - Nicholls State 86 -6
Southern Illinois 74 - Illinois State 68 0.686 Southern Illinois 55 - Illinois State 80 31
Southern Miss 60 - North Texas 73 0.79 Southern Miss 56 - North Texas 68 -1
Stanford 74 - Utah 70 0.619 Stanford 73 - Utah 66 -3
Syracuse 84 - Boston College 71 0.768 Syracuse 75 - Boston College 67 5
Tennessee State 63 - Eastern Kentucky 77 0.853 Tennessee State 73 - Eastern Kentucky 93 6
Tennessee Tech 69 - Eastern Illinois 68 0.501 Tennessee Tech 80 - Eastern Illinois 67 -12
Texas 79 - Texas Christian 68 0.788 Texas 70 - Texas Christian 55 -4
Texas El Paso 76 - Florida International 66 0.705 Texas El Paso 77 - Florida International 68 1
Texas San Antonio 74 - Florida Atlantic 71 0.577 Texas San Antonio 86 - Florida Atlantic 75 -8
Texas State 70 - Texas Arlington 62 0.766 Texas State 79 - Texas Arlington 68 -3
Toledo 80 - Bowling Green 68 0.781 Toledo 81 - Bowling Green 88 19
Towson 64 - Northeastern 74 0.848 Towson 67 - Northeastern 76 -1
Troy 66 - South Alabama 68 0.547 Troy 51 - South Alabama 58 5
UC Davis 76 - Long Beach State 71 0.633 UC Davis 78 - Long Beach State 76 3
UC Riverside 65 - UC Irvine 66 0.504 UC Riverside 67 - UC Irvine 73 5
UL Monroe 63 - UL Lafayette 72 0.777 UL Monroe 72 - UL Lafayette 88 7
UMKC 71 - Omaha 62 0.792 UMKC 55 - Omaha 47 1
Utah Valley 75 - Dixie State 61 0.823 Utah Valley 89 - Dixie State 93 18
Vermont 74 - Stony Brook 61 0.806 Vermont 86 - Stony Brook 78 5
Virginia 76 - North Carolina 68 0.717 Virginia 60 - North Carolina 48 -4
Virginia Military Institute 77 - Samford 71 0.682 Virginia Military Institute 85 - Samford 56 -23
Washington 68 - UCLA 82 0.83 Washington 61 - UCLA 64 -11
Washington State 65 - Southern California 77 0.785 Washington State 65 - Southern California 76 -1
West Virginia 76 - Oklahoma 74 0.572 West Virginia 90 - Oklahoma 91 3
Western Illinois 76 - Denver 67 0.759 Western Illinois 82 - Denver 75 2
Western Kentucky 79 - Rice 68 0.801 Western Kentucky 89 - Rice 66 -12
Wright State 80 - Milwaukee 59 0.896 Wright State 92 - Milwaukee 82 11
Xavier 75 - Connecticut 70 0.647 Xavier 72 - Connecticut 80 13
Youngstown State 74 - IPFW 69 0.632 Youngstown State 72 - IPFW 70 3

GAMES OF 2-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 76 - Oregon State 75 0.541 Arizona State 75 - Oregon State 73 -1
Army 70 - Colgate 77 0.637 Army 83 - Colgate 92 2
Boston 73 - Holy Cross 67 0.639 Boston 86 - Holy Cross 68 -12
Cal Baptist 72 - Sacramento State 69 0.557 Cal Baptist 69 - Sacramento State 70 4
Cincinnati 75 - Central Florida 72 0.61 Cincinnati 69 - Central Florida 68 2
College of Charleston 72 - Elon 61 0.81 College of Charleston 55 - Elon 66 22
Drake 69 - Loyola Ill 72 0.578 Drake 51 - Loyola Ill 50 -4
Evansville 66 - Indiana State 71 0.641 Evansville 70 - Indiana State 76 1
Georgia Tech 78 - Pittsburgh 73 0.613 Georgia Tech 71 - Pittsburgh 65 -1
Hartford 69 - NJ Tech 64 0.651 Hartford 75 - NJ Tech 61 -9
James Madison 72 - Hofstra 70 0.539 James Madison 74 - Hofstra 70 -2
Loyola MD 70 - Lafayette 71 0.508 Loyola MD 88 - Lafayette 69 -20
Maryland 76 - Minnesota 73 0.564 Maryland 72 - Minnesota 59 -10
Missouri State 74 - Bradley 68 0.665 Missouri State 72 - Bradley 57 -9
Morgan State 70 - Norfolk State 66 0.637 Morgan State 65 - Norfolk State 68 7
North Dakota 63 - South Dakota 74 0.772 North Dakota 85 - South Dakota 81 -15
Northern Iowa 73 - Valparaiso 69 0.615 Northern Iowa 74 - Valparaiso 60 -10
Notre Dame 79 - Miami 69 0.735 Notre Dame 71 - Miami 61 0
Oral Roberts 71 - South Dakota State 76 0.657 Oral Roberts 80 - South Dakota State 95 10
Penn State 85 - Nebraska 69 0.873 Penn State 61 - Nebraska 62 17
Richmond 97 - Unranked 51 Richmond 90 - Unranked 49
Saint Peters 73 - Fairfield 55 0.882 Saint Peters 66 - Fairfield 49 1
Seton Hall 78 - Marquette 70 0.738 Seton Hall 57 - Marquette 51 2
South Florida 73 - Tulane 66 0.74 South Florida 59 - Tulane 62 10
Southern Illinois 74 - Illinois State 68 0.686 Southern Illinois 59 - Illinois State 49 -4
Towson 64 - Northeastern 74 0.848 Towson 68 - Northeastern 57 -21
Vermont 74 - Stony Brook 61 0.806 Vermont 61 - Stony Brook 57 9
Wisconsin 72 - Michigan 77 0.609 Wisconsin 59 - Michigan 67 3


Number of DI Games: 283
Number Correct: 206 = 72.7%
Expected Number Correct: 196.671 = 69.4%
Average Error: 8.55
Average Signed Error: -0.53

GAMES OF 2-15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Chattanooga 67 - East Tennessee State 68 0.541 Chattanooga 53 - East Tennessee State 51 -3
Florida State 72 - Virginia 73 0.525 Florida State 81 - Virginia 60 -22
Idaho State 80 - Unranked 55 Idaho State 84 - Unranked 59
Longwood 70 - Hampton 64 0.678 Longwood 83 - Hampton 73 -4
New Orleans 64 - Stephen F Austin 77 0.811 New Orleans 79 - Stephen F Austin 89 -3
Presbyterian 67 - South Carolina Upstate 65 0.551 Presbyterian 75 - South Carolina Upstate 65 -8
SIU Edwardsville 62 - Murray State 72 0.72 SIU Edwardsville 57 - Murray State 86 19
Tennessee Tech 66 - Eastern Kentucky 78 0.822 Tennessee Tech 72 - Eastern Kentucky 83 -1
Washington State 78 - Washington 69 0.716 Washington State 63 - Washington 65 11

GAMES OF 2-16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 79 - Northern Illinois 56 0.897 Akron 81 - Northern Illinois 76 18
Arkansas 78 - Florida 75 0.559 Arkansas 75 - Florida 64 -8
Ball State 71 - Bowling Green 72 0.51 Ball State 62 - Bowling Green 75 12
Connecticut 75 - Providence 70 0.661 Connecticut 73 - Providence 61 -7
Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 0.659 Fairleigh Dickinson 75 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 83 14
Georgia 75 - Missouri 80 0.62 Georgia 80 - Missouri 70 -15
Illinois 86 - Northwestern 69 0.898 Illinois 73 - Northwestern 66 10
Maryland 80 - Nebraska 66 0.831 Maryland 64 - Nebraska 50 0
Mt St Marys 66 - Wagner 63 0.597 Mt St Marys 39 - Wagner 61 25
Oklahoma State 84 - Iowa State 67 0.876 Oklahoma State 76 - Iowa State 58 -1
Purdue 78 - Michigan State 69 0.723 Purdue 75 - Michigan State 65 -1
Rhode Island 72 - Dayton 71 0.511 Rhode Island 91 - Dayton 89 -1
Saint Johns 76 - Xavier 78 0.547 Saint Johns 93 - Xavier 84 -11
Saint Louis 81 - La Salle 66 0.815 Saint Louis 78 - La Salle 57 -6
Santa Clara 67 - Loyola Marymount 68 0.538 Santa Clara 73 - Loyola Marymount 76 2
SE Missouri State 64 - Austin Peay 72 0.719 SE Missouri State 86 - Austin Peay 81 -13
Toledo 79 - Miami OH 66 0.823 Toledo 87 - Miami OH 75 1
Tulsa 73 - Temple 68 0.632 Tulsa 72 - Temple 66 -1
Western Michigan 61 - Kent State 76 0.904 Western Michigan 69 - Kent State 76 -8

GAMES OF 2-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Boise State 71 - Utah State 70 0.501 Boise State 79 - Utah State 70 -8
Butler 70 - Marquette 71 0.504 Butler 57 - Marquette 73 15
Central Connecticut State 65 - Sacred Heart 71 0.65 Central Connecticut State 70 - Sacred Heart 82 6
Central Florida 73 - South Florida 69 0.647 Central Florida 81 - South Florida 65 -12
Chattanooga 76 - Western Carolina 64 0.847 Chattanooga 89 - Western Carolina 81 4
East Tennessee State 73 - Mercer 66 0.715 East Tennessee State 64 - Mercer 71 14
Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 0.659 Fairleigh Dickinson 87 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 90 9
Furman 80 - Samford 63 0.849 Furman 78 - Samford 64 3
Holy Cross 70 - Boston 71 0.508 Holy Cross 69 - Boston 78 8
Indiana 77 - Minnesota 75 0.553 Indiana 82 - Minnesota 72 -8
Indiana State 74 - Evansville 65 0.774 Indiana State 87 - Evansville 73 -5
Kansas State 64 - Kansas 80 0.873 Kansas State 41 - Kansas 59 2
Loyola Ill 80 - Valparaiso 56 0.899 Loyola Ill 54 - Valparaiso 52 22
Maryland 80 - Nebraska 66 0.831 Maryland 79 - Nebraska 71 6
Mt St Marys 66 - Wagner 63 0.597 Mt St Marys 55 - Wagner 57 5
New Mexico 66 - Wyoming 74 0.719 New Mexico 74 - Wyoming 83 1
North Carolina 78 - Northeastern 65 0.865 North Carolina 82 - Northeastern 62 -7
Northern Iowa 67 - Drake 78 0.754 Northern Iowa 69 - Drake 77 -3
Pittsburgh 77 - NC State 72 0.625 Pittsburgh 73 - NC State 74 6
Quinnipiac 66 - Iona 72 0.644 Quinnipiac 74 - Iona 70 -10
Radford 70 - Gardner Webb 64 0.681 Radford 57 - Gardner Webb 69 18
Seton Hall 81 - DePaul 64 0.89 Seton Hall 60 - DePaul 52 9
Southern California 83 - Arizona State 67 0.9 Southern California 89 - Arizona State 71 -2
Southern Illinois 66 - Missouri State 75 0.743 Southern Illinois 53 - Missouri State 68 6
Tennessee 80 - South Carolina 68 0.764 Tennessee 93 - South Carolina 73 -8
Vanderbilt 71 - Kentucky 75 0.632 Vanderbilt 78 - Kentucky 82 0
Virginia Commonwealth 75 - Richmond 71 0.62 Virginia Commonwealth 68 - Richmond 56 -8
Virginia Military Institute 67 - UNC Greensboro 73 0.664 Virginia Military Institute 88 - UNC Greensboro 77 -17
Wake Forest 73 - Duke 79 0.662 Wake Forest 60 - Duke 84 18
Wofford 78 - The Citadel 69 0.737 Wofford 81 - The Citadel 67 -5

GAMES OF 2-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Austin Peay 74 - SIU Edwardsville 63 0.758 Austin Peay 79 - SIU Edwardsville 57 -11
Belmont 77 - Jacksonville State 64 0.831 Belmont 63 - Jacksonville State 59 9
Bradley 74 - Illinois State 67 0.683 Bradley 71 - Illinois State 88 24
Charleston Southern 61 - Longwood 69 0.73 Charleston Southern 62 - Longwood 70 0
Eastern Washington 74 - Montana 66 0.769 Eastern Washington 90 - Montana 76 -6
Fresno State 60 - San Diego State 77 0.909 Fresno State 53 - San Diego State 67 -3
Gonzaga 82 - Saint Marys 62 0.917 Gonzaga 87 - Saint Marys 65 -2
Hampton 68 - Campbell 70 0.555 Hampton 57 - Campbell 76 17
High Point 62 - Winthrop 77 0.851 High Point 70 - Winthrop 76 -9
Michigan 81 - Rutgers 69 0.774 Michigan 71 - Rutgers 64 5
Murray State 75 - Eastern Illinois 60 0.832 Murray State 59 - Eastern Illinois 68 24
Oregon 74 - Colorado 73 0.502 Oregon 60 - Colorado 56 -3
Oregon State 71 - Utah 73 0.551 Oregon State 74 - Utah 56 -20
Pacific 67 - Brigham Young 76 0.746 Pacific 52 - Brigham Young 80 19
Penn State 74 - Ohio State 81 0.711 Penn State 82 - Ohio State 92 3
Portland State 73 - Idaho 58 0.842 Portland State 84 - Idaho 64 -5
Presbyterian 67 - South Carolina Upstate 65 0.551 Presbyterian 51 - South Carolina Upstate 65 16
Radford 70 - Gardner Webb 64 0.681 Radford 49 - Gardner Webb 77 34
San Francisco 71 - Loyola Marymount 69 0.58 San Francisco 63 - Loyola Marymount 68 7
Santa Clara 74 - San Diego 65 0.768 Santa Clara 60 - San Diego 71 20
Southern Utah 73 - Sacramento State 65 0.74 Southern Utah 88 - Sacramento State 69 -11
Tennessee Martin 64 - Eastern Kentucky 78 0.827 Tennessee Martin 72 - Eastern Kentucky 89 3
Tennessee State 67 - Tennessee Tech 66 0.531 Tennessee State 91 - Tennessee Tech 86 -4
UCLA 75 - Arizona 73 0.554 UCLA 74 - Arizona 60 -12
UMBC 67 - Vermont 69 0.562 UMBC 71 - Vermont 80 7
Washington 69 - Stanford 79 0.753 Washington 61 - Stanford 79 8
Washington State 74 - California 68 0.668 Washington State 82 - California 51 -25
Weber State 77 - Northern Arizona 62 0.883 Weber State 92 - Northern Arizona 59 -18
Wichita State 71 - Houston 78 0.722 Wichita State 68 - Houston 63 -12
Wisconsin 76 - Iowa 77 0.509 Wisconsin 62 - Iowa 77 14

GAMES OF 2-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama Birmingham 70 - Old Dominion 63 0.702 Alabama Birmingham 76 - Old Dominion 69 0
Appalachian State 68 - South Alabama 67 0.524 Appalachian State 63 - South Alabama 65 3
Ball State 66 - Akron 73 0.641 Ball State 79 - Akron 88 2
Boise State 71 - Utah State 70 0.501 Boise State 81 - Utah State 77 -3
Buffalo 76 - Toledo 75 0.513 Buffalo 70 - Toledo 80 11
Cal State Fullerton 65 - UC Irvine 74 0.712 Cal State Fullerton 78 - UC Irvine 89 2
Cal State Northridge 67 - Hawaii 73 0.66 Cal State Northridge 74 - Hawaii 75 -5
Charleston Southern 61 - Longwood 69 0.73 Charleston Southern 58 - Longwood 64 -2
Davidson 94 - Unranked 50 Davidson 101 - Unranked 51
Dayton 71 - Saint Louis 72 0.543 Dayton 76 - Saint Louis 53 -24
Detroit 77 - Robert Morris 64 0.858 Detroit 85 - Robert Morris 74 2
Dixie State 65 - Tarleton State 66 0.519 Dixie State 59 - Tarleton State 77 17
Fairfield 63 - Canisius 72 0.717 Fairfield 69 - Canisius 80 2
Florida International 69 - Southern Miss 71 0.538 Florida International 72 - Southern Miss 85 11
Georgia State 73 - Troy 64 0.739 Georgia State 80 - Troy 66 -5
Grand Canyon 76 - Cal Baptist 62 0.804 Grand Canyon 71 - Cal Baptist 61 4
Hampton 68 - Campbell 70 0.555 Hampton 68 - Campbell 73 3
High Point 62 - Winthrop 77 0.851 High Point 63 - Winthrop 71 -7
Illinois Chicago 68 - Green Bay 69 0.507 Illinois Chicago 61 - Green Bay 58 -4
Iona 71 - Monmouth 73 0.546 Iona 91 - Monmouth 86 -7
IPFW 63 - Cleveland State 74 0.733 IPFW 75 - Cleveland State 68 -18
Lipscomb 74 - Kennesaw St 59 0.876 Lipscomb 76 - Kennesaw St 62 1
Long Beach State 74 - Cal Poly 66 0.727 Long Beach State 64 - Cal Poly 60 4
Milwaukee 73 - Oakland 72 0.517 Milwaukee 81 - Oakland 85 5
New Mexico 66 - Wyoming 74 0.719 New Mexico 67 - Wyoming 79 4
New Mexico State 69 - Utah Valley 66 0.559 New Mexico State 66 - Utah Valley 69 6
North Dakota State 67 - South Dakota State 69 0.573 North Dakota State 67 - South Dakota State 68 -1
Northern Kentucky 63 - Wright State 75 0.783 Northern Kentucky 81 - Wright State 75 -18
Omaha 68 - North Dakota 71 0.574 Omaha 72 - North Dakota 62 -13
Saint Peters 67 - Marist 59 0.749 Saint Peters 59 - Marist 54 3
San Jose State 66 - Nevada Las Vegas 78 0.768 San Jose State 60 - Nevada Las Vegas 76 4
Stetson 69 - Jacksonville 64 0.652 Stetson 91 - Jacksonville 75 -11
UC San Diego 61 - UC Riverside 74 0.831 UC San Diego 75 - UC Riverside 81 -7
UC Santa Barbara 73 - Cal State Bakersfield 63 0.741 UC Santa Barbara 71 - Cal State Bakersfield 66 5
UMBC 67 - Vermont 69 0.562 UMBC 66 - Vermont 55 -13
UMKC 72 - Denver 57 0.893 UMKC 68 - Denver 57 4
Youngstown State 71 - IUPUI 69 0.571 Youngstown State 70 - IUPUI 72 4

GAMES OF 2-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 86 - Vanderbilt 66 0.881 Alabama 82 - Vanderbilt 78 16
Alabama Birmingham 70 - Old Dominion 63 0.702 Alabama Birmingham 58 - Old Dominion 65 14
Albany 70 - Stony Brook 65 0.636 Albany 43 - Stony Brook 59 21
American 69 - Navy 73 0.68 American 60 - Navy 72 8
Appalachian State 68 - South Alabama 67 0.524 Appalachian State 54 - South Alabama 56 3
Army 79 - Holy Cross 65 0.794 Army 69 - Holy Cross 65 10
Austin Peay 75 - Eastern Illinois 62 0.802 Austin Peay 69 - Eastern Illinois 76 20
Belmont 84 - Tennessee Tech 57 0.953 Belmont 90 - Tennessee Tech 66 3
Bryant 70 - Merrimack 68 0.577 Bryant 60 - Merrimack 58 0
Cal State Fullerton 65 - UC Irvine 74 0.712 Cal State Fullerton 67 - UC Irvine 64 -12
Cal State Northridge 67 - Hawaii 73 0.66 Cal State Northridge 88 - Hawaii 80 -14
Colgate 85 - Boston 62 0.875 Colgate 82 - Boston 72 13
College of Charleston 84 - Unranked 55 College of Charleston 86 - Unranked 83
Detroit 77 - Robert Morris 64 0.858 Detroit 80 - Robert Morris 61 -6
Dixie State 65 - Tarleton State 66 0.519 Dixie State 64 - Tarleton State 48 -17
Duke 69 - Virginia 76 0.687 Duke 66 - Virginia 65 -8
Fairfield 63 - Canisius 72 0.717 Fairfield 66 - Canisius 53 -22
Fairleigh Dickinson 66 - Mt St Marys 68 0.57 Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Mt St Marys 71 -7
Florida 83 - Georgia 72 0.732 Florida 70 - Georgia 63 4
Florida AM 69 - North Carolina AT 66 0.605 Florida AM 71 - North Carolina AT 57 -11
Fresno State 60 - San Diego State 77 0.909 Fresno State 57 - San Diego State 75 1
Georgetown 71 - Seton Hall 77 0.66 Georgetown 81 - Seton Hall 75 -12
Georgia State 73 - Troy 64 0.739 Georgia State 65 - Troy 53 -3
Gonzaga 94 - San Diego 58 0.974 Gonzaga 106 - San Diego 69 -1
Grand Canyon 76 - Cal Baptist 62 0.804 Grand Canyon 62 - Cal Baptist 65 17
Idaho 60 - Portland State 71 0.771 Idaho 40 - Portland State 71 20
Illinois Chicago 68 - Green Bay 69 0.507 Illinois Chicago 59 - Green Bay 69 9
Indiana 78 - Michigan State 71 0.66 Indiana 71 - Michigan State 78 14
Iona 71 - Monmouth 73 0.546 Iona 88 - Monmouth 65 -25
Iowa State 66 - Oklahoma 83 0.851 Iowa State 56 - Oklahoma 66 -7
IPFW 63 - Cleveland State 74 0.733 IPFW 55 - Cleveland State 67 1
Kansas 73 - Texas Tech 71 0.558 Kansas 67 - Texas Tech 61 -4
Kent State 83 - Eastern Michigan 60 0.913 Kent State 64 - Eastern Michigan 51 10
Lehigh 70 - Loyola MD 73 0.593 Lehigh 47 - Loyola MD 75 25
Lipscomb 74 - Kennesaw St 59 0.876 Lipscomb 77 - Kennesaw St 63 1
LIU Brooklyn 73 - Central Connecticut State 63 0.768 LIU Brooklyn 87 - Central Connecticut State 74 -3
Long Beach State 74 - Cal Poly 66 0.727 Long Beach State 74 - Cal Poly 69 3
Louisiana State 82 - Auburn 76 0.663 Louisiana State 104 - Auburn 80 -18
Loyola Marymount 66 - Brigham Young 75 0.779 Loyola Marymount 71 - Brigham Young 88 8
Mercer 70 - Furman 74 0.625 Mercer 60 - Furman 70 6
Miami 70 - Georgia Tech 77 0.691 Miami 60 - Georgia Tech 87 20
Milwaukee 73 - Oakland 72 0.517 Milwaukee 89 - Oakland 87 -1
Minnesota 75 - Illinois 81 0.63 Minnesota 63 - Illinois 94 25
Mississippi 73 - Mississippi State 67 0.651 Mississippi 56 - Mississippi State 66 16
Montana 68 - Eastern Washington 72 0.647 Montana 76 - Eastern Washington 90 10
Murray State 74 - SIU Edwardsville 60 0.795 Murray State 89 - SIU Edwardsville 62 -13
Nebraska 68 - Purdue 80 0.807 Nebraska 58 - Purdue 75 5
New Mexico State 69 - Utah Valley 66 0.559 New Mexico State 67 - Utah Valley 60 -4
Niagara 61 - Siena 69 0.745 Niagara 64 - Siena 62 -10
Nicholls State 78 - Central Arkansas 63 0.847 Nicholls State 79 - Central Arkansas 68 4
NJ Tech 74 - Binghamton 63 0.763 NJ Tech 63 - Binghamton 76 24
North Carolina 72 - Louisville 73 0.502 North Carolina 99 - Louisville 54 -46
North Dakota State 67 - South Dakota State 69 0.573 North Dakota State 84 - South Dakota State 82 -4
Northern Illinois 62 - Miami OH 72 0.737 Northern Illinois 64 - Miami OH 69 -5
Northern Kentucky 63 - Wright State 75 0.783 Northern Kentucky 71 - Wright State 77 -6
Omaha 68 - North Dakota 71 0.574 Omaha 69 - North Dakota 81 9
Oregon 77 - Utah 69 0.712 Oregon 67 - Utah 64 5
Oregon State 68 - Colorado 77 0.726 Oregon State 57 - Colorado 61 -5
Pittsburgh 73 - Florida State 81 0.678 Pittsburgh 72 - Florida State 79 -1
Portland 65 - Pacific 80 0.848 Portland 58 - Pacific 80 7
Quinnipiac 71 - Rider 69 0.567 Quinnipiac 80 - Rider 64 -14
Richmond 77 - Duquesne 67 0.782 Richmond 79 - Duquesne 72 3
Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 - Sacred Heart 72 0.562 Saint Francis Brooklyn 88 - Sacred Heart 76 -14
Saint Johns 82 - DePaul 69 0.855 Saint Johns 83 - DePaul 88 18
Saint Josephs 73 - La Salle 78 0.618 Saint Josephs 91 - La Salle 82 -14
Saint Peters 67 - Marist 59 0.749 Saint Peters 50 - Marist 51 9
Santa Clara 69 - Pepperdine 72 0.576 Santa Clara 86 - Pepperdine 82 -7
SE Missouri State 66 - Eastern Kentucky 76 0.771 SE Missouri State 94 - Eastern Kentucky 72 -32
South Carolina 74 - Missouri 79 0.634 South Carolina 78 - Missouri 93 10
South Dakota 73 - Oral Roberts 71 0.554 South Dakota 86 - Oral Roberts 84 0
Southern California 78 - Arizona 70 0.709 Southern California 72 - Arizona 81 17
Southern Utah 73 - Sacramento State 65 0.74 Southern Utah 77 - Sacramento State 57 -12
Stetson 69 - Jacksonville 64 0.652 Stetson 82 - Jacksonville 86 9
Syracuse 77 - Notre Dame 75 0.571 Syracuse 75 - Notre Dame 67 -6
Tennessee 76 - Kentucky 67 0.71 Tennessee 55 - Kentucky 70 24
Tennessee Martin 57 - Morehead State 73 0.859 Tennessee Martin 69 - Morehead State 79 -6
Tennessee State 60 - Jacksonville State 73 0.88 Tennessee State 76 - Jacksonville State 77 -12
Texas 77 - West Virginia 76 0.525 Texas 82 - West Virginia 84 3
Texas AM CC 64 - Lamar 65 0.523 Texas AM CC 77 - Lamar 68 -10
Texas Christian 77 - Kansas State 67 0.786 Texas Christian 54 - Kansas State 62 18
The Citadel 76 - Virginia Military Institute 77 0.522 The Citadel 75 - Virginia Military Institute 74 -2
Tulane 70 - Central Florida 71 0.529 Tulane 81 - Central Florida 84 2
UC San Diego 61 - UC Riverside 74 0.831 UC San Diego 83 - UC Riverside 82 -14
UC Santa Barbara 73 - Cal State Bakersfield 63 0.741 UC Santa Barbara 63 - Cal State Bakersfield 44 -9
UCLA 80 - Arizona State 71 0.795 UCLA 80 - Arizona State 79 8
UMass Lowell 71 - New Hampshire 67 0.598 UMass Lowell 67 - New Hampshire 69 6
UMKC 72 - Denver 57 0.893 UMKC 80 - Denver 69 4
UNC Greensboro 70 - Chattanooga 64 0.707 UNC Greensboro 60 - Chattanooga 55 1
Villanova 78 - Connecticut 70 0.748 Villanova 68 - Connecticut 60 0
Virginia Commonwealth 78 - George Mason 64 0.83 Virginia Commonwealth 76 - George Mason 79 17
Wagner 72 - Saint Francis Penn 65 0.684 Wagner 67 - Saint Francis Penn 52 -8
Wake Forest 75 - NC State 74 0.509 Wake Forest 62 - NC State 80 19
Washington 72 - California 73 0.511 Washington 62 - California 51 -12
Washington State 70 - Stanford 73 0.591 Washington State 85 - Stanford 76 -12
Weber State 77 - Northern Arizona 62 0.883 Weber State 74 - Northern Arizona 52 -7
Western Carolina 66 - Wofford 75 0.736 Western Carolina 56 - Wofford 80 15
William and Mary 71 - Elon 63 0.697 William and Mary 54 - Elon 75 29
Youngstown State 71 - IUPUI 69 0.571 Youngstown State 77 - IUPUI 70 -5

GAMES OF 2-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Albany 70 - Stony Brook 65 0.636 Albany 67 - Stony Brook 59 -3
American 69 - Navy 73 0.68 American 60 - Navy 69 5
Coastal Carolina 72 - Georgia Southern 65 0.702 Coastal Carolina 65 - Georgia Southern 55 -3
Colgate 85 - Boston 62 0.875 Colgate 78 - Boston 63 8
Delaware State 78 - Unranked 66 Delaware State 75 - Unranked 58
Drake 79 - Evansville 62 0.84 Drake 85 - Evansville 71 3
Fairleigh Dickinson 66 - Mt St Marys 68 0.57 Fairleigh Dickinson 61 - Mt St Marys 74 11
Florida AM 69 - North Carolina AT 66 0.605 Florida AM 63 - North Carolina AT 70 10
George Washington 68 - Rhode Island 78 0.777 George Washington 78 - Rhode Island 70 -18
Holy Cross 67 - Army 77 0.721 Holy Cross 67 - Army 51 -26
Houston 81 - Cincinnati 65 0.904 Houston 90 - Cincinnati 52 -22
Iowa 85 - Penn State 76 0.763 Iowa 74 - Penn State 68 3
LIU Brooklyn 73 - Central Connecticut State 63 0.768 LIU Brooklyn 81 - Central Connecticut State 79 8
Loyola MD 75 - Lehigh 68 0.711 Loyola MD 72 - Lehigh 76 11
Merrimack 70 - Bryant 68 0.548 Merrimack 60 - Bryant 76 18
Niagara 61 - Siena 69 0.745 Niagara 66 - Siena 68 -6
NJ Tech 74 - Binghamton 63 0.763 NJ Tech 58 - Binghamton 72 25
Northwestern 69 - Wisconsin 78 0.755 Northwestern 51 - Wisconsin 68 8
Ohio State 76 - Michigan 78 0.539 Ohio State 87 - Michigan 92 3
Quinnipiac 71 - Rider 69 0.567 Quinnipiac 93 - Rider 68 -23
Rutgers 74 - Maryland 71 0.581 Rutgers 59 - Maryland 68 12
Saint Bonaventure 73 - Davidson 68 0.651 Saint Bonaventure 69 - Davidson 58 -6
Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 - Sacred Heart 72 0.562 Saint Francis Brooklyn 82 - Sacred Heart 88 4
San Jose State 66 - Nevada Las Vegas 78 0.768 San Jose State 64 - Nevada Las Vegas 67 -9
Southern Illinois 71 - Valparaiso 68 0.568 Southern Illinois 65 - Valparaiso 66 4
Temple 72 - South Florida 70 0.578 Temple 76 - South Florida 83 9
Texas Southern 65 - Prairie View 67 0.578 Texas Southern 75 - Prairie View 77 0
UL Monroe 64 - Arkansas Little Rock 69 0.663 UL Monroe 78 - Arkansas Little Rock 66 -17
Wagner 72 - Saint Francis Penn 65 0.684 Wagner 70 - Saint Francis Penn 68 5
Xavier 78 - Butler 66 0.787 Xavier 63 - Butler 51 0


Number of DI Games: 249
Number Correct: 165 = 66.2%
Expected Number Correct: 173.082 = 69.5%
Average Error: 9.48
Average Signed Error: 0.81

GAMES OF 2-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 68 - New Mexico 66 0.571 Air Force 65 - New Mexico 73 10
Alabama Birmingham 90 - Unranked 50 Alabama Birmingham 117 - Unranked 45
Alcorn State 63 - Alabama AM 64 0.506 Alcorn State 65 - Alabama AM 52 -14
Arkansas State 65 - Texas State 70 0.647 Arkansas State 52 - Texas State 57 0
Drake 80 - Evansville 63 0.859 Drake 74 - Evansville 63 6
Duke 78 - Syracuse 75 0.57 Duke 85 - Syracuse 71 -11
Elon 68 - William and Mary 66 0.54 Elon 73 - William and Mary 54 -17
Jackson State 66 - Grambling State 60 0.673 Jackson State 63 - Grambling State 59 2
Lamar 60 - Sam Houston State 75 0.868 Lamar 71 - Sam Houston State 77 -9
Liberty 75 - North Alabama 58 0.868 Liberty 74 - North Alabama 54 -3
Mercer 79 - The Citadel 72 0.704 Mercer 88 - The Citadel 52 -29
New Orleans 72 - Central Arkansas 68 0.602 New Orleans 88 - Central Arkansas 63 -21
Northern Colorado 82 - Unranked 56 Northern Colorado 89 - Unranked 60
Northwestern State 74 - Houston Baptist 70 0.621 Northwestern State 86 - Houston Baptist 80 -2
Oklahoma State 73 - Texas Tech 74 0.518 Oklahoma State 74 - Texas Tech 69 -6
Presbyterian 68 - Charleston Southern 62 0.672 Presbyterian 77 - Charleston Southern 78 7
Saint Marys 72 - Pepperdine 66 0.676 Saint Marys 66 - Pepperdine 61 1
SE Missouri State 69 - Eastern Kentucky 75 0.647 SE Missouri State 65 - Eastern Kentucky 87 16
SIU Edwardsville 59 - Morehead State 72 0.798 SIU Edwardsville 48 - Morehead State 56 -5
South Carolina Upstate 65 - Gardner Webb 72 0.666 South Carolina Upstate 58 - Gardner Webb 69 4
Southern 67 - Alabama State 57 0.746 Southern 75 - Alabama State 66 1
Southern California 75 - Oregon 70 0.658 Southern California 72 - Oregon 58 -9
Southern Illinois 69 - Valparaiso 68 0.519 Southern Illinois 67 - Valparaiso 64 -2
Texas AM CC 65 - Southeast Louisiana 66 0.526 Texas AM CC 75 - Southeast Louisiana 78 2
UL Lafayette 73 - Texas Arlington 67 0.705 UL Lafayette 76 - Texas Arlington 74 4
UL Monroe 65 - Arkansas Little Rock 68 0.588 UL Monroe 68 - Arkansas Little Rock 64 -7
Western Carolina 64 - UNC Greensboro 76 0.834 Western Carolina 56 - UNC Greensboro 77 9

GAMES OF 2-23

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 80 - Washington 73 0.715 Arizona State 97 - Washington 64 -26
Auburn 76 - Florida 78 0.569 Auburn 57 - Florida 74 15
Baylor 90 - Iowa State 60 0.961 Baylor 77 - Iowa State 72 25
Campbell 70 - High Point 64 0.655 Campbell 68 - High Point 48 -14
Central Michigan 69 - Miami OH 74 0.649 Central Michigan 54 - Miami OH 96 37
Eastern Michigan 65 - Bowling Green 77 0.752 Eastern Michigan 69 - Bowling Green 82 1
Georgetown 72 - Connecticut 74 0.587 Georgetown 57 - Connecticut 70 11
Georgia 76 - Louisiana State 83 0.65 Georgia 91 - Louisiana State 78 -20
Georgia State 73 - Appalachian State 66 0.687 Georgia State 85 - Appalachian State 71 -7
Kansas State 64 - Oklahoma 80 0.873 Kansas State 62 - Oklahoma 57 -21
Liberty 75 - North Alabama 58 0.868 Liberty 74 - North Alabama 54 -3
Louisville 76 - Notre Dame 72 0.589 Louisville 69 - Notre Dame 57 -8
Michigan State 72 - Illinois 81 0.727 Michigan State 81 - Illinois 72 -18
Missouri 74 - Mississippi 70 0.615 Missouri 53 - Mississippi 60 11
Nebraska 72 - Penn State 79 0.736 Nebraska 83 - Penn State 86 -4
Northern Illinois 62 - Buffalo 79 0.864 Northern Illinois 74 - Buffalo 102 11
Ohio 72 - Akron 73 0.513 Ohio 90 - Akron 73 -18
Prairie View 76 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54 0.92 Prairie View 72 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 56 6
Richmond 79 - Massachusetts 72 0.715 Richmond 79 - Massachusetts 65 -7
San Diego 68 - Pacific 72 0.622 San Diego 67 - Pacific 77 6
Texas 75 - Kansas 74 0.523 Texas 75 - Kansas 72 -2
Texas Christian 71 - West Virginia 81 0.807 Texas Christian 66 - West Virginia 74 -2
Texas Southern 82 - Mississippi Valley State 53 0.954 Texas Southern 82 - Mississippi Valley State 45 -8
Villanova 84 - Saint Johns 73 0.794 Villanova 81 - Saint Johns 58 -12
Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Saint Louis 69 0.633 Virginia Commonwealth 67 - Saint Louis 65 3
Virginia Tech 76 - Georgia Tech 72 0.601 Virginia Tech 53 - Georgia Tech 69 20

GAMES OF 2-24

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 70 - Sam Houston State 64 0.667 Abilene Christian 86 - Sam Houston State 72 -8
Air Force 68 - New Mexico 66 0.571 Air Force 62 - New Mexico 55 -5
Alcorn State 66 - Alabama State 60 0.648 Alcorn State 68 - Alabama State 59 -3
Arkansas 76 - Alabama 78 0.545 Arkansas 81 - Alabama 66 -17
Ball State 67 - Kent State 75 0.704 Ball State 90 - Kent State 71 -27
Boston 73 - Holy Cross 68 0.617 Boston 75 - Holy Cross 86 16
Butler 67 - Seton Hall 75 0.731 Butler 61 - Seton Hall 52 -17
Creighton 83 - DePaul 65 0.892 Creighton 77 - DePaul 53 -6
Davidson 69 - Saint Bonaventure 72 0.582 Davidson 53 - Saint Bonaventure 56 0
Furman 81 - The Citadel 68 0.811 Furman 72 - The Citadel 63 4
George Mason 77 - George Washington 69 0.704 George Mason 63 - George Washington 58 3
Incarnate Word 67 - Lamar 62 0.648 Incarnate Word 45 - Lamar 67 27
La Salle 69 - Duquesne 74 0.623 La Salle 85 - Duquesne 65 -25
Longwood 71 - Hampton 63 0.747 Longwood 68 - Hampton 74 14
Loyola MD 72 - American 71 0.525 Loyola MD 60 - American 49 -10
Memphis 77 - Tulane 63 0.834 Memphis 61 - Tulane 46 -1
Mercer 71 - Chattanooga 70 0.506 Mercer 81 - Chattanooga 77 -3
Miami 67 - Florida State 84 0.843 Miami 71 - Florida State 88 0
Mississippi State 78 - South Carolina 72 0.641 Mississippi State 69 - South Carolina 48 -15
Nevada Las Vegas 71 - Fresno State 66 0.681 Nevada Las Vegas 64 - Fresno State 67 8
Nicholls State 77 - Houston Baptist 65 0.831 Nicholls State 83 - Houston Baptist 68 -3
Norfolk State 78 - Delaware State 59 0.898 Norfolk State 86 - Delaware State 55 -12
North Carolina 80 - Marquette 69 0.762 North Carolina 70 - Marquette 83 24
North Carolina Central 67 - North Carolina AT 68 0.505 North Carolina Central 63 - North Carolina AT 79 15
Northwestern State 66 - Stephen F Austin 76 0.799 Northwestern State 57 - Stephen F Austin 83 16
Providence 73 - Xavier 75 0.554 Providence 83 - Xavier 68 -17
Radford 83 - Unranked 54 Radford 74 - Unranked 51
Rutgers 75 - Indiana 73 0.582 Rutgers 74 - Indiana 63 -9
Saint Josephs 68 - Dayton 81 0.848 Saint Josephs 97 - Dayton 84 -26
South Florida 74 - Temple 71 0.642 South Florida 47 - Temple 65 21
Southeast Louisiana 71 - Mcneese State 63 0.732 Southeast Louisiana 91 - Mcneese State 95 12
Southern 65 - Alabama AM 61 0.598 Southern 73 - Alabama AM 57 -12
Southern Utah 76 - Northern Arizona 60 0.878 Southern Utah 85 - Northern Arizona 80 11
Texas AM CC 66 - New Orleans 67 0.503 Texas AM CC 61 - New Orleans 69 7
Tulsa 72 - Cincinnati 70 0.558 Tulsa 69 - Cincinnati 70 3
UNC Greensboro 78 - Western Carolina 62 0.896 UNC Greensboro 80 - Western Carolina 81 17
Vanderbilt 68 - Tennessee 78 0.738 Vanderbilt 58 - Tennessee 70 2
Virginia 77 - NC State 64 0.813 Virginia 61 - NC State 68 20
Wake Forest 66 - Clemson 77 0.739 Wake Forest 39 - Clemson 60 10

GAMES OF 2-25

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona 77 - Washington State 69 0.69 Arizona 69 - Washington State 53 -8
Arizona State 80 - Washington 73 0.715 Arizona State 80 - Washington 72 -1
Brigham Young 79 - San Francisco 64 0.844 Brigham Young 79 - San Francisco 73 9
Bryant 77 - LIU Brooklyn 69 0.709 Bryant 87 - LIU Brooklyn 80 1
Buffalo 83 - Central Michigan 66 0.884 Buffalo 85 - Central Michigan 73 5
California 69 - Oregon State 73 0.613 California 57 - Oregon State 59 -2
Central Connecticut State 60 - Wagner 74 0.831 Central Connecticut State 63 - Wagner 83 6
Colorado 72 - Southern California 73 0.513 Colorado 80 - Southern California 62 -19
Detroit 78 - Robert Morris 64 0.877 Detroit 83 - Robert Morris 73 4
Eastern Illinois 68 - SE Missouri State 67 0.512 Eastern Illinois 88 - SE Missouri State 94 7
Eastern Kentucky 70 - Belmont 79 0.738 Eastern Kentucky 81 - Belmont 67 -23
Gonzaga 90 - Santa Clara 60 0.965 Gonzaga 89 - Santa Clara 75 16
Green Bay 74 - IPFW 68 0.653 Green Bay 84 - IPFW 89 11
Houston 78 - Western Kentucky 65 0.82 Houston 81 - Western Kentucky 57 -11
Idaho State 63 - Montana 66 0.596 Idaho State 58 - Montana 64 3
Illinois 87 - Nebraska 65 0.925 Illinois 86 - Nebraska 70 6
Jacksonville State 68 - Murray State 67 0.513 Jacksonville State 87 - Murray State 74 -12
Merrimack 71 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 65 0.662 Merrimack 71 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 84 19
Michigan 83 - Iowa 76 0.682 Michigan 79 - Iowa 57 -15
Michigan State 72 - Ohio State 82 0.727 Michigan State 71 - Ohio State 67 -14
Milwaukee 72 - IUPUI 70 0.571 Milwaukee 84 - IUPUI 72 -10
Minnesota 80 - Northwestern 72 0.704 Minnesota 59 - Northwestern 67 16
Morehead State 75 - Tennessee State 56 0.921 Morehead State 74 - Tennessee State 60 5
Northern Colorado 66 - Portland State 65 0.518 Northern Colorado 66 - Portland State 64 -1
Ohio 80 - Eastern Michigan 61 0.835 Ohio 86 - Eastern Michigan 67 0
Pepperdine 73 - Loyola Marymount 71 0.567 Pepperdine 74 - Loyola Marymount 81 9
Prairie View 83 - Mississippi Valley State 50 0.965 Prairie View 82 - Mississippi Valley State 62 13
Sacramento State 64 - Weber State 75 0.806 Sacramento State 73 - Weber State 82 -2
Sacred Heart 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.606 Sacred Heart 69 - Fairleigh Dickinson 82 17
Saint Francis Penn 62 - Mt St Marys 65 0.57 Saint Francis Penn 65 - Mt St Marys 72 4
Saint Marys 70 - Pacific 62 0.727 Saint Marys 58 - Pacific 46 -4
San Diego State 73 - Boise State 68 0.637 San Diego State 78 - Boise State 66 -7
SIU Edwardsville 70 - Tennessee Martin 65 0.618 SIU Edwardsville 66 - Tennessee Martin 53 -8
South Carolina State 59 - Florida AM 72 0.808 South Carolina State 67 - Florida AM 75 -5
Stanford 72 - Oregon 74 0.574 Stanford 68 - Oregon 71 1
Tennessee Tech 64 - Austin Peay 73 0.753 Tennessee Tech 81 - Austin Peay 76 -14
Texas Southern 75 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 58 0.877 Texas Southern 79 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 3
Utah 71 - UCLA 75 0.627 Utah 61 - UCLA 76 11
Western Michigan 65 - Miami OH 70 0.659 Western Michigan 66 - Miami OH 74 3
Youngstown State 71 - Illinois Chicago 66 0.633 Youngstown State 74 - Illinois Chicago 58 -11

GAMES OF 2-26

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 76 - Bowling Green 69 0.659 Akron 71 - Bowling Green 83 19
Arkansas Little Rock 69 - UL Lafayette 71 0.567 Arkansas Little Rock 61 - UL Lafayette 66 3
Bradley 66 - Drake 77 0.733 Bradley 71 - Drake 80 -2
Bryant 77 - LIU Brooklyn 69 0.709 Bryant 63 - LIU Brooklyn 60 5
Cal Poly 62 - UC Davis 72 0.818 Cal Poly 61 - UC Davis 69 -2
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - Cal State Northridge 64 0.754 Cal State Bakersfield 84 - Cal State Northridge 58 -16
Central Connecticut State 60 - Wagner 74 0.831 Central Connecticut State 83 - Wagner 77 -20
Cincinnati 74 - Tulane 68 0.692 Cincinnati 91 - Tulane 71 -14
Denver 68 - Omaha 71 0.581 Denver 76 - Omaha 80 1
Evansville 66 - Missouri State 75 0.758 Evansville 81 - Missouri State 90 0
Georgia Southern 66 - Appalachian State 67 0.508 Georgia Southern 78 - Appalachian State 84 5
Hawaii 76 - Long Beach State 66 0.759 Hawaii 78 - Long Beach State 76 8
Idaho 60 - Montana State 76 0.889 Idaho 74 - Montana State 69 -21
Illinois State 73 - Northern Iowa 72 0.516 Illinois State 56 - Northern Iowa 70 15
James Madison 72 - Drexel 66 0.696 James Madison 78 - Drexel 84 12
Kennesaw St 61 - Florida Gulf Coast 70 0.749 Kennesaw St 80 - Florida Gulf Coast 63 -26
Louisiana Tech 77 - Rice 65 0.803 Louisiana Tech 101 - Rice 57 -32
Loyola Ill 79 - Southern Illinois 56 0.918 Loyola Ill 60 - Southern Illinois 52 15
Marshall 73 - North Texas 70 0.577 Marshall 65 - North Texas 77 15
Merrimack 71 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 65 0.662 Merrimack 75 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 67 -2
Nevada Las Vegas 71 - Fresno State 66 0.681 Nevada Las Vegas 68 - Fresno State 67 4
Northern Arizona 62 - Southern Utah 74 0.812 Northern Arizona 62 - Southern Utah 92 18
Old Dominion 74 - Middle Tennessee 61 0.819 Old Dominion 67 - Middle Tennessee 61 7
Penn State 74 - Purdue 77 0.615 Penn State 52 - Purdue 73 18
Sacred Heart 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71 0.606 Sacred Heart 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64 -2
Saint Bonaventure 81 - George Washington 63 0.917 Saint Bonaventure 88 - George Washington 41 -29
Saint Louis 74 - Richmond 73 0.533 Saint Louis 72 - Richmond 67 -4
Saint Peters 73 - Rider 60 0.817 Saint Peters 66 - Rider 52 -1
Seattle 62 - Grand Canyon 71 0.736 Seattle 63 - Grand Canyon 57 -15
Siena 70 - Manhattan 58 0.848 Siena 74 - Manhattan 69 7
South Alabama 69 - Georgia State 70 0.505 South Alabama 81 - Georgia State 84 2
South Dakota State 71 - UMKC 61 0.776 South Dakota State 67 - UMKC 49 -8
Southern Miss 70 - Florida Atlantic 69 0.521 Southern Miss 60 - Florida Atlantic 69 10
Stetson 72 - North Florida 68 0.618 Stetson 74 - North Florida 79 9
Tarleton State 61 - New Mexico State 65 0.62 Tarleton State 51 - New Mexico State 78 23
Texas Arlington 71 - Arkansas State 69 0.552 Texas Arlington 73 - Arkansas State 71 0
Texas San Antonio 69 - Alabama Birmingham 74 0.626 Texas San Antonio 57 - Alabama Birmingham 64 2
Texas State 71 - UL Monroe 58 0.865 Texas State 58 - UL Monroe 49 4
Troy 64 - Coastal Carolina 71 0.712 Troy 59 - Coastal Carolina 75 9
UC Irvine 75 - UC San Diego 61 0.832 UC Irvine 80 - UC San Diego 55 -11
UC Riverside 65 - UC Santa Barbara 71 0.659 UC Riverside 68 - UC Santa Barbara 72 -2
Utah State 73 - Nevada 67 0.644 Utah State 75 - Nevada 72 3
Utah Valley 69 - Texas Pan American 70 0.513 Utah Valley 78 - Texas Pan American 74 -5
Valparaiso 67 - Indiana State 73 0.653 Valparaiso 43 - Indiana State 58 9

GAMES OF 2-27

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 57 - Prairie View 69 0.797 Alabama AM 54 - Prairie View 55 -11
Alabama State 58 - Texas Southern 71 0.852 Alabama State 76 - Texas Southern 86 -3
Albany 71 - NJ Tech 66 0.641 Albany 76 - NJ Tech 66 -5
Arizona 82 - Washington 67 0.829 Arizona 75 - Washington 74 14
Arizona State 76 - Washington State 75 0.506 Arizona State 77 - Washington State 74 -2
Arkansas 79 - Louisiana State 77 0.557 Arkansas 83 - Louisiana State 75 -6
Arkansas Little Rock 69 - UL Lafayette 71 0.567 Arkansas Little Rock 69 - UL Lafayette 59 -12
Army 74 - Boston 67 0.663 Army 63 - Boston 75 19
Auburn 73 - Tennessee 77 0.591 Auburn 77 - Tennessee 72 -9
Ball State 76 - Central Michigan 67 0.712 Ball State 97 - Central Michigan 91 3
Bellarmine 65 - Liberty 66 0.527 Bellarmine 78 - Liberty 94 15
Boston College 72 - Notre Dame 81 0.753 Boston College 94 - Notre Dame 90 -13
Bradley 66 - Drake 77 0.733 Bradley 67 - Drake 61 -17
Brigham Young 72 - Saint Marys 63 0.764 Brigham Young 65 - Saint Marys 51 -5
Bucknell 73 - American 69 0.605 Bucknell 71 - American 78 11
Cal Baptist 86 - Unranked 59 Cal Baptist 78 - Unranked 65
Cal Poly 62 - UC Davis 72 0.818 Cal Poly 66 - UC Davis 68 -8
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - Cal State Northridge 64 0.754 Cal State Bakersfield 87 - Cal State Northridge 90 13
California 65 - Oregon 78 0.834 California 63 - Oregon 74 -2
Central Arkansas 57 - Abilene Christian 77 0.905 Central Arkansas 84 - Abilene Christian 82 -22
Clemson 78 - Miami 63 0.804 Clemson 66 - Miami 58 7
Colorado 75 - UCLA 71 0.607 Colorado 70 - UCLA 61 -5
Colorado State 81 - Air Force 57 0.94 Colorado State 72 - Air Force 49 1
Connecticut 75 - Marquette 68 0.731 Connecticut 80 - Marquette 62 -11
Davidson 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 72 0.57 Davidson 65 - Virginia Commonwealth 57 -10
Delaware State 65 - Coppin State 75 0.738 Delaware State 68 - Coppin State 81 3
Denver 68 - Omaha 71 0.581 Denver 76 - Omaha 80 1
DePaul 71 - Georgetown 76 0.661 DePaul 60 - Georgetown 68 3
Duke 76 - Louisville 73 0.564 Duke 73 - Louisville 80 10
Duquesne 70 - Rhode Island 71 0.501 Duquesne 86 - Rhode Island 75 -12
East Tennessee State 65 - UNC Greensboro 66 0.503 East Tennessee State 74 - UNC Greensboro 85 10
Eastern Illinois 71 - Tennessee Martin 64 0.671 Eastern Illinois 68 - Tennessee Martin 73 12
Eastern Kentucky 79 - Tennessee State 64 0.866 Eastern Kentucky 89 - Tennessee State 84 10
Eastern Michigan 68 - Northern Illinois 66 0.552 Eastern Michigan 91 - Northern Illinois 57 -32
Evansville 66 - Missouri State 75 0.758 Evansville 72 - Missouri State 63 -18
George Mason 77 - La Salle 69 0.687 George Mason 89 - La Salle 54 -27
Georgia 81 - South Carolina 76 0.619 Georgia 70 - South Carolina 91 26
Georgia Southern 66 - Appalachian State 67 0.508 Georgia Southern 65 - Appalachian State 57 -9
Georgia Tech 77 - Syracuse 75 0.549 Georgia Tech 84 - Syracuse 77 -5
Gonzaga 87 - Loyola Marymount 63 0.964 Gonzaga 86 - Loyola Marymount 69 7
Hampton 68 - Presbyterian 65 0.559 Hampton 67 - Presbyterian 65 1
Hartford 72 - Binghamton 63 0.721 Hartford 77 - Binghamton 60 -8
Hawaii 76 - Long Beach State 66 0.759 Hawaii 79 - Long Beach State 76 7
High Point 70 - South Carolina Upstate 65 0.628 High Point 65 - South Carolina Upstate 60 0
Idaho State 63 - Montana 66 0.596 Idaho State 58 - Montana 59 -2
Illinois State 73 - Northern Iowa 72 0.516 Illinois State 87 - Northern Iowa 94 8
Indiana 71 - Michigan 82 0.758 Indiana 57 - Michigan 73 5
Iowa State 71 - Texas Christian 76 0.623 Iowa State 72 - Texas Christian 76 -1
Jacksonville State 71 - Austin Peay 66 0.65 Jacksonville State 75 - Austin Peay 67 -3
Kansas 71 - Baylor 78 0.69 Kansas 71 - Baylor 58 -20
Kentucky 73 - Florida 74 0.524 Kentucky 67 - Florida 71 3
Lafayette 76 - Lehigh 68 0.716 Lafayette 75 - Lehigh 69 2
Lamar 62 - Stephen F Austin 76 0.872 Lamar 88 - Stephen F Austin 83 -19
Louisiana Tech 77 - Rice 65 0.803 Louisiana Tech 79 - Rice 58 -9
Loyola Ill 79 - Southern Illinois 56 0.918 Loyola Ill 65 - Southern Illinois 58 16
Loyola MD 66 - Navy 75 0.76 Loyola MD 67 - Navy 73 -3
Marshall 73 - North Texas 70 0.577 Marshall 73 - North Texas 72 2
Mcneese State 69 - Houston Baptist 73 0.634 Mcneese State 85 - Houston Baptist 58 -31
Miami OH 67 - Kent State 74 0.733 Miami OH 51 - Kent State 64 6
Mississippi State 69 - Alabama 79 0.715 Mississippi State 59 - Alabama 64 -5
Mississippi Valley State 54 - Jackson State 76 0.907 Mississippi Valley State 54 - Jackson State 68 -8
Morehead State 65 - Belmont 71 0.658 Morehead State 89 - Belmont 82 -13
Nebraska 72 - Minnesota 80 0.689 Nebraska 78 - Minnesota 74 -12
New Orleans 65 - Nicholls State 74 0.752 New Orleans 101 - Nicholls State 105 -5
North Alabama 65 - Lipscomb 71 0.647 North Alabama 73 - Lipscomb 66 -13
North Carolina 76 - Florida State 79 0.552 North Carolina 78 - Florida State 70 -11
North Carolina AT 70 - North Carolina Central 65 0.621 North Carolina AT 55 - North Carolina Central 53 3
Northern Colorado 66 - Portland State 65 0.518 Northern Colorado 65 - Portland State 73 9
Northwestern State 70 - Southeast Louisiana 66 0.628 Northwestern State 79 - Southeast Louisiana 61 -14
Ohio 75 - Buffalo 74 0.51 Ohio 66 - Buffalo 86 21
Oklahoma 78 - Oklahoma State 72 0.663 Oklahoma 90 - Oklahoma State 94 10
Old Dominion 74 - Middle Tennessee 61 0.819 Old Dominion 73 - Middle Tennessee 60 0
Oral Roberts 79 - Western Illinois 68 0.824 Oral Roberts 85 - Western Illinois 81 7
Pacific 70 - San Francisco 69 0.527 Pacific 76 - San Francisco 69 -6
Sacramento State 64 - Weber State 75 0.806 Sacramento State 70 - Weber State 72 -9
Saint Peters 73 - Rider 60 0.817 Saint Peters 65 - Rider 78 26
San Diego 70 - Pepperdine 76 0.672 San Diego 84 - Pepperdine 90 0
San Diego State 73 - Boise State 68 0.637 San Diego State 62 - Boise State 58 1
Seattle 62 - Grand Canyon 71 0.736 Seattle 71 - Grand Canyon 81 1
Siena 70 - Manhattan 58 0.848 Siena 64 - Manhattan 56 4
SIU Edwardsville 67 - SE Missouri State 69 0.547 SIU Edwardsville 63 - SE Missouri State 69 4
South Alabama 69 - Georgia State 70 0.505 South Alabama 73 - Georgia State 82 8
South Carolina State 59 - Florida AM 72 0.808 South Carolina State 63 - Florida AM 57 -19
South Dakota 67 - North Dakota State 66 0.537 South Dakota 80 - North Dakota State 71 -8
South Dakota State 71 - UMKC 61 0.776 South Dakota State 89 - UMKC 77 -2
Southern 68 - Alcorn State 62 0.644 Southern 89 - Alcorn State 75 -8
Southern Miss 70 - Florida Atlantic 69 0.521 Southern Miss 66 - Florida Atlantic 73 8
Stanford 76 - Oregon State 69 0.67 Stanford 62 - Oregon State 73 18
Stetson 72 - North Florida 68 0.618 Stetson 85 - North Florida 68 -13
Tarleton State 61 - New Mexico State 65 0.62 Tarleton State 64 - New Mexico State 55 -13
Tennessee Tech 61 - Murray State 74 0.815 Tennessee Tech 71 - Murray State 61 -23
Texas Arlington 71 - Arkansas State 69 0.552 Texas Arlington 64 - Arkansas State 56 -6
Texas El Paso 70 - Charlotte 64 0.64 Texas El Paso 70 - Charlotte 47 -17
Texas San Antonio 69 - Alabama Birmingham 74 0.626 Texas San Antonio 96 - Alabama Birmingham 79 -22
Texas State 71 - UL Monroe 58 0.865 Texas State 61 - UL Monroe 57 9
Texas Tech 74 - Texas 72 0.57 Texas Tech 68 - Texas 59 -7
Toledo 81 - Western Michigan 59 0.937 Toledo 91 - Western Michigan 44 -25
Troy 64 - Coastal Carolina 71 0.712 Troy 71 - Coastal Carolina 76 -2
UC Irvine 75 - UC San Diego 61 0.832 UC Irvine 75 - UC San Diego 64 3
UC Riverside 65 - UC Santa Barbara 71 0.659 UC Riverside 68 - UC Santa Barbara 52 -22
UMass Lowell 68 - Stony Brook 69 0.531 UMass Lowell 64 - Stony Brook 62 -3
UNC Wilmington 71 - Elon 66 0.623 UNC Wilmington 77 - Elon 80 8
Utah 68 - Southern California 77 0.732 Utah 71 - Southern California 61 -19
Utah Valley 69 - Texas Pan American 70 0.513 Utah Valley 73 - Texas Pan American 64 -10
Valparaiso 67 - Indiana State 73 0.653 Valparaiso 70 - Indiana State 58 -18
Vanderbilt 69 - Mississippi 74 0.633 Vanderbilt 75 - Mississippi 70 -10
Virginia Tech 81 - Wake Forest 66 0.834 Virginia Tech 84 - Wake Forest 46 -23
West Virginia 85 - Kansas State 64 0.947 West Virginia 65 - Kansas State 43 -1
Western Carolina 69 - Mercer 76 0.721 Western Carolina 85 - Mercer 61 -31
Wisconsin 73 - Illinois 76 0.58 Wisconsin 69 - Illinois 74 2
Wofford 69 - Furman 70 0.524 Wofford 74 - Furman 73 -2
Xavier 74 - Creighton 77 0.564 Xavier 77 - Creighton 69 -11

GAMES OF 2-28

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
American 72 - Bucknell 71 0.523 American 81 - Bucknell 68 -12
Army 74 - Boston 67 0.663 Army 57 - Boston 55 5
Butler 65 - Villanova 79 0.848 Butler 73 - Villanova 61 -26
Cincinnati 70 - Memphis 75 0.654 Cincinnati 74 - Memphis 80 1
Delaware State 65 - Coppin State 75 0.738 Delaware State 74 - Coppin State 94 10
Hartford 68 - Albany 65 0.583 Hartford 83 - Albany 77 -3
Houston 82 - South Florida 62 0.921 Houston 98 - South Florida 52 -26
Idaho 60 - Montana State 76 0.889 Idaho 61 - Montana State 71 -6
Lehigh 70 - Lafayette 74 0.617 Lehigh 70 - Lafayette 71 -3
Marist 67 - Quinnipiac 65 0.553 Marist 76 - Quinnipiac 67 -7
Maryland 77 - Michigan State 70 0.68 Maryland 73 - Michigan State 55 -11
Navy 77 - Loyola MD 64 0.84 Navy 66 - Loyola MD 58 5
NC State 76 - Pittsburgh 74 0.556 NC State 65 - Pittsburgh 62 -1
New Hampshire 70 - UMass Lowell 68 0.553 New Hampshire 64 - UMass Lowell 72 10
Norfolk State 84 - Unranked 54 Norfolk State 72 - Unranked 51
Ohio State 82 - Iowa 79 0.58 Ohio State 57 - Iowa 73 19
Oral Roberts 79 - Western Illinois 68 0.824 Oral Roberts 95 - Western Illinois 59 -25
South Carolina State 59 - Florida AM 72 0.808 South Carolina State 58 - Florida AM 63 -8
South Dakota 67 - North Dakota State 66 0.537 South Dakota 77 - North Dakota State 89 13
Texas El Paso 70 - Charlotte 64 0.64 Texas El Paso 77 - Charlotte 62 -9
Utah State 73 - Nevada 67 0.644 Utah State 87 - Nevada 66 -15
Western Kentucky 84 - Florida International 61 0.904 Western Kentucky 91 - Florida International 58 -10


Number of DI Games: 305
Number Correct: 210 = 68.8%
Expected Number Correct: 210.89 = 69.1%
Average Error: 10.04
Average Signed Error: -1.85

GAMES OF 3-1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama AM 59 - Texas Southern 68 0.757 Alabama AM 58 - Texas Southern 68 1
Alabama State 54 - Prairie View 71 0.906 Alabama State 67 - Prairie View 70 -14
Campbell 68 - Gardner Webb 67 0.516 Campbell 63 - Gardner Webb 57 -5
Central Arkansas 64 - Stephen F Austin 77 0.786 Central Arkansas 66 - Stephen F Austin 79 0
Colorado State 81 - Air Force 56 0.947 Colorado State 74 - Air Force 44 -5
Houston Baptist 63 - Sam Houston State 77 0.829 Houston Baptist 70 - Sam Houston State 83 -1
Incarnate Word 66 - New Orleans 67 0.521 Incarnate Word 72 - New Orleans 88 15
Jackson State 71 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 55 0.847 Jackson State 64 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 58 10
Lamar 68 - Texas AM CC 61 0.706 Lamar 66 - Texas AM CC 47 -12
Marist 68 - Quinnipiac 65 0.592 Marist 65 - Quinnipiac 52 -10
Mississippi Valley State 56 - Grambling State 74 0.875 Mississippi Valley State 67 - Grambling State 63 -22
Nebraska 69 - Rutgers 79 0.767 Nebraska 72 - Rutgers 51 -31
Nicholls State 75 - Northwestern State 65 0.813 Nicholls State 87 - Northwestern State 71 -6
Oklahoma State 78 - Oklahoma 75 0.579 Oklahoma State 79 - Oklahoma 75 -1
Oregon 75 - Arizona 72 0.59 Oregon 80 - Arizona 69 -8
Radford 72 - Hampton 63 0.753 Radford 67 - Hampton 52 -6
Richmond 85 - Saint Josephs 68 0.896 Richmond 73 - Saint Josephs 76 20
Saint Bonaventure 75 - Dayton 65 0.725 Saint Bonaventure 52 - Dayton 55 13
Saint Louis 77 - Massachusetts 70 0.704 Saint Louis 78 - Massachusetts 57 -14
Syracuse 75 - North Carolina 77 0.54 Syracuse 72 - North Carolina 70 -4
UNC Asheville 70 - Longwood 65 0.639 UNC Asheville 61 - Longwood 77 21
Virginia 78 - Miami 60 0.869 Virginia 62 - Miami 51 7
Western Kentucky 84 - Florida International 61 0.906 Western Kentucky 71 - Florida International 59 11
Winthrop 78 - High Point 60 0.908 Winthrop 83 - High Point 54 -11

GAMES OF 3-2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 84 - Auburn 72 0.76 Alabama 70 - Auburn 58 0
Ball State 76 - Eastern Michigan 64 0.729 Ball State 100 - Eastern Michigan 65 -23
Boise State 77 - Fresno State 61 0.877 Boise State 64 - Fresno State 67 19
Bowling Green 74 - Miami OH 68 0.649 Bowling Green 79 - Miami OH 84 11
Buffalo 76 - Akron 71 0.626 Buffalo 80 - Akron 78 3
Central Florida 73 - Tulsa 70 0.596 Central Florida 73 - Tulsa 69 -1
Central Michigan 65 - Toledo 85 0.877 Central Michigan 81 - Toledo 79 -22
Cleveland State 74 - IPFW 62 0.766 Cleveland State 108 - IPFW 104 8
DePaul 69 - Marquette 75 0.675 DePaul 71 - Marquette 77 0
Georgetown 73 - Xavier 76 0.594 Georgetown 72 - Xavier 66 -9
Georgia Tech 78 - Duke 75 0.577 Georgia Tech 81 - Duke 77 -1
Iowa State 68 - Texas 82 0.844 Iowa State 67 - Texas 81 0
Louisiana State 84 - Vanderbilt 72 0.762 Louisiana State 83 - Vanderbilt 68 -3
Michigan 82 - Illinois 73 0.711 Michigan 53 - Illinois 76 32
Michigan State 75 - Indiana 74 0.527 Michigan State 64 - Indiana 58 -5
Mississippi 71 - Kentucky 70 0.533 Mississippi 70 - Kentucky 62 -7
New Mexico State 68 - Texas Pan American 64 0.594 New Mexico State 69 - Texas Pan American 51 -14
Northern Illinois 65 - Western Michigan 67 0.558 Northern Illinois 63 - Western Michigan 73 8
Northern Kentucky 71 - Detroit 70 0.514 Northern Kentucky 70 - Detroit 69 0
Oakland 74 - Youngstown State 71 0.568 Oakland 87 - Youngstown State 83 -1
Pittsburgh 78 - Wake Forest 68 0.723 Pittsburgh 70 - Wake Forest 57 -3
Purdue 73 - Wisconsin 70 0.6 Purdue 73 - Wisconsin 69 -1
South Carolina 72 - Arkansas 83 0.739 South Carolina 73 - Arkansas 101 17
South Florida 66 - Memphis 78 0.785 South Florida 52 - Memphis 73 9
Texas Tech 79 - Texas Christian 66 0.854 Texas Tech 69 - Texas Christian 49 -7
Wagner 67 - Merrimack 61 0.666 Wagner 74 - Merrimack 67 -1
West Virginia 76 - Baylor 79 0.584 West Virginia 89 - Baylor 94 2
Wright State 80 - Milwaukee 63 0.868 Wright State 92 - Milwaukee 94 19

GAMES OF 3-3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Belmont 80 - SIU Edwardsville 59 0.895 Belmont 78 - SIU Edwardsville 61 4
Boston 75 - Lehigh 65 0.749 Boston 69 - Lehigh 58 -1
Central Arkansas 69 - Southeast Louisiana 67 0.538 Central Arkansas 88 - Southeast Louisiana 71 -15
Colorado State 82 - New Mexico 57 0.946 Colorado State 87 - New Mexico 73 11
Eastern Washington 77 - Idaho State 61 0.91 Eastern Washington 63 - Idaho State 68 21
Florida 77 - Missouri 71 0.65 Florida 70 - Missouri 72 8
Florida State 89 - Boston College 68 0.903 Florida State 93 - Boston College 64 -8
George Washington 71 - Fordham 64 0.649 George Washington 53 - Fordham 49 3
Houston Baptist 67 - Incarnate Word 66 0.523 Houston Baptist 72 - Incarnate Word 67 -4
La Salle 77 - Saint Josephs 76 0.533 La Salle 66 - Saint Josephs 72 7
Louisiana Tech 92 - Unranked 49 Louisiana Tech 99 - Unranked 66
Morehead State 72 - SE Missouri State 60 0.795 Morehead State 61 - SE Missouri State 54 5
Nevada Las Vegas 62 - San Diego State 77 0.874 Nevada Las Vegas 62 - San Diego State 71 -6
New Orleans 70 - Northwestern State 69 0.535 New Orleans 92 - Northwestern State 83 -8
North Carolina Central 62 - Florida AM 64 0.559 North Carolina Central 58 - Florida AM 65 5
Northwestern 69 - Maryland 77 0.728 Northwestern 60 - Maryland 55 -13
Notre Dame 75 - NC State 74 0.536 Notre Dame 69 - NC State 80 12
Oregon 74 - UCLA 71 0.585 Oregon 82 - UCLA 74 -5
Penn State 79 - Minnesota 76 0.559 Penn State 84 - Minnesota 65 -16
Saint Johns 78 - Providence 76 0.543 Saint Johns 81 - Providence 67 -12
Sam Houston State 77 - Texas AM CC 56 0.922 Sam Houston State 84 - Texas AM CC 61 -2
Seton Hall 72 - Connecticut 73 0.508 Seton Hall 58 - Connecticut 69 10
Southern California 78 - Stanford 68 0.745 Southern California 79 - Stanford 42 -27
Stephen F Austin 67 - Abilene Christian 69 0.564 Stephen F Austin 61 - Abilene Christian 63 0
Syracuse 71 - Clemson 73 0.546 Syracuse 64 - Clemson 54 -12
Texas AM 65 - Mississippi State 70 0.622 Texas AM 57 - Mississippi State 63 1
Tulane 67 - Wichita State 77 0.815 Tulane 70 - Wichita State 78 -2
Utah 73 - Oregon State 70 0.56 Utah 70 - Oregon State 75 8
Villanova 78 - Creighton 74 0.586 Villanova 72 - Creighton 60 -8
Wagner 67 - Merrimack 61 0.666 Wagner 64 - Merrimack 59 1

GAMES OF 3-4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Baylor 82 - Oklahoma State 72 0.771 Baylor 81 - Oklahoma State 70 -1
Bellarmine 73 - Stetson 65 0.736 Bellarmine 70 - Stetson 73 11
Bradley 70 - Southern Illinois 67 0.588 Bradley 63 - Southern Illinois 73 13
Cincinnati 77 - Vanderbilt 73 0.63 Cincinnati 64 - Vanderbilt 78 18
Colorado 81 - Arizona State 69 0.801 Colorado 75 - Arizona State 61 -2
Dayton 74 - Rhode Island 71 0.574 Dayton 84 - Rhode Island 72 -9
East Carolina 70 - Central Florida 74 0.596 East Carolina 60 - Central Florida 64 0
Eastern Kentucky 75 - Austin Peay 70 0.639 Eastern Kentucky 70 - Austin Peay 67 2
Florida Atlantic 74 - Middle Tennessee 65 0.716 Florida Atlantic 80 - Middle Tennessee 50 -21
George Mason 77 - George Washington 67 0.713 George Mason 73 - George Washington 59 -4
Grambling State 69 - Alabama State 57 0.839 Grambling State 91 - Alabama State 68 -11
Iowa 88 - Nebraska 68 0.909 Iowa 102 - Nebraska 64 -18
Jackson State 66 - Alabama AM 54 0.782 Jackson State 50 - Alabama AM 35 -3
Jacksonville State 68 - Murray State 66 0.551 Jacksonville State 68 - Murray State 65 -1
Kansas 80 - Texas El Paso 62 0.881 Kansas 67 - Texas El Paso 62 13
Liberty 76 - Kennesaw St 54 0.935 Liberty 69 - Kennesaw St 59 12
Lipscomb 69 - Florida Gulf Coast 65 0.617 Lipscomb 60 - Florida Gulf Coast 72 16
Manhattan 65 - Fairfield 62 0.601 Manhattan 69 - Fairfield 59 -7
Massachusetts 82 - Saint Josephs 73 0.753 Massachusetts 100 - Saint Josephs 66 -25
Mcneese State 64 - Nicholls State 75 0.788 Mcneese State 67 - Nicholls State 80 2
Michigan 84 - Michigan State 66 0.847 Michigan 69 - Michigan State 50 -1
North Carolina Central 62 - Florida AM 64 0.559 North Carolina Central 74 - Florida AM 71 -5
North Florida 71 - North Alabama 67 0.594 North Florida 60 - North Alabama 68 12
Northern Iowa 75 - Illinois State 71 0.614 Northern Iowa 65 - Illinois State 60 -1
Oklahoma 76 - Texas 75 0.53 Oklahoma 65 - Texas 69 5
Portland State 67 - Southern Utah 72 0.635 Portland State 58 - Southern Utah 68 5
Prairie View 69 - Southern 60 0.748 Prairie View 68 - Southern 61 2
Quinnipiac 64 - Saint Peters 67 0.566 Quinnipiac 65 - Saint Peters 60 -8
Radford 67 - Campbell 65 0.571 Radford 60 - Campbell 78 20
Richmond 78 - Duquesne 67 0.768 Richmond 62 - Duquesne 67 16
Rider 69 - Monmouth 77 0.695 Rider 74 - Monmouth 77 -5
San Francisco 76 - San Diego 68 0.723 San Francisco 67 - San Diego 51 -8
Santa Clara 79 - Portland 65 0.837 Santa Clara 95 - Portland 86 5
Siena 71 - Canisius 64 0.68 Siena 73 - Canisius 66 0
Texas San Antonio 91 - Unranked 57 Texas San Antonio 123 - Unranked 43
Texas Southern 73 - Alcorn State 61 0.811 Texas Southern 80 - Alcorn State 78 10
Texas Tech 82 - Iowa State 63 0.914 Texas Tech 81 - Iowa State 54 -8
Tulsa 90 - Unranked 52 Tulsa 107 - Unranked 74
Utah State 81 - Wyoming 65 0.853 Utah State 72 - Wyoming 59 3
Weber State 76 - Northern Colorado 63 0.844 Weber State 60 - Northern Colorado 59 12
West Virginia 83 - Texas Christian 68 0.89 West Virginia 76 - Texas Christian 67 6
Winthrop 76 - Longwood 60 0.906 Winthrop 82 - Longwood 61 -5

GAMES OF 3-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Appalachian State 67 - Arkansas Little Rock 68 0.523 Appalachian State 67 - Arkansas Little Rock 60 -8
Arkansas State 70 - Georgia Southern 68 0.541 Arkansas State 62 - Georgia Southern 58 -2
Belmont 74 - Jacksonville State 66 0.718 Belmont 72 - Jacksonville State 69 5
Buffalo 75 - Kent State 71 0.618 Buffalo 81 - Kent State 67 -10
Cal Baptist 72 - Seattle 69 0.569 Cal Baptist 79 - Seattle 80 4
Cal State Northridge 66 - UC Riverside 76 0.727 Cal State Northridge 68 - UC Riverside 72 -6
Central Michigan 74 - Northern Illinois 68 0.629 Central Michigan 74 - Northern Illinois 79 11
Davidson 73 - George Mason 68 0.629 Davidson 99 - George Mason 67 -27
Delaware State 60 - Morgan State 78 0.881 Delaware State 67 - Morgan State 92 7
Dixie State 63 - New Mexico State 70 0.67 Dixie State 66 - New Mexico State 76 3
Eastern Washington 77 - Idaho State 61 0.91 Eastern Washington 75 - Idaho State 62 3
Florida Atlantic 74 - Middle Tennessee 65 0.716 Florida Atlantic 63 - Middle Tennessee 54 0
Grand Canyon 72 - Utah Valley 64 0.743 Grand Canyon 55 - Utah Valley 59 12
Indiana State 73 - Evansville 66 0.706 Indiana State 53 - Evansville 43 -3
Liberty 75 - Stetson 60 0.843 Liberty 77 - Stetson 64 2
Long Beach State 63 - UC Irvine 76 0.813 Long Beach State 68 - UC Irvine 71 -10
Loyola Ill 76 - Southern Illinois 57 0.881 Loyola Ill 73 - Southern Illinois 49 -5
Loyola Marymount 72 - San Francisco 69 0.58 Loyola Marymount 70 - San Francisco 66 -1
Manhattan 65 - Fairfield 62 0.601 Manhattan 67 - Fairfield 85 21
Marshall 79 - Charlotte 63 0.869 Marshall 75 - Charlotte 67 8
Mercer 77 - Samford 68 0.728 Mercer 87 - Samford 59 -19
Miami 76 - Boston College 74 0.57 Miami 80 - Boston College 76 -2
Mississippi Valley State 62 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 70 0.68 Mississippi Valley State 59 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 82 15
Missouri State 75 - Valparaiso 65 0.731 Missouri State 66 - Valparaiso 55 -1
Montana 84 - Unranked 54 Montana 92 - Unranked 61
Montana State 70 - Sacramento State 65 0.653 Montana State 77 - Sacramento State 75 3
Morehead State 71 - Eastern Kentucky 68 0.568 Morehead State 67 - Eastern Kentucky 64 0
Nevada 70 - Colorado State 73 0.575 Nevada 85 - Colorado State 82 -6
North Alabama 66 - Florida Gulf Coast 67 0.535 North Alabama 96 - Florida Gulf Coast 81 -16
North Texas 69 - Alabama Birmingham 64 0.66 North Texas 51 - Alabama Birmingham 65 19
Pacific 71 - Santa Clara 67 0.585 Pacific 76 - Santa Clara 81 9
Quinnipiac 64 - Saint Peters 67 0.566 Quinnipiac 64 - Saint Peters 66 -1
Rice 88 - Unranked 58 Rice 80 - Unranked 77
Rider 69 - Monmouth 77 0.695 Rider 62 - Monmouth 65 -5
Saint Bonaventure 76 - Duquesne 63 0.791 Saint Bonaventure 75 - Duquesne 59 -3
Saint Louis 76 - Massachusetts 71 0.654 Saint Louis 86 - Massachusetts 72 -9
Siena 71 - Canisius 64 0.68 Siena 75 - Canisius 76 8
South Alabama 70 - UL Monroe 64 0.682 South Alabama 80 - UL Monroe 72 -2
Texas Arlington 70 - Troy 64 0.701 Texas Arlington 86 - Troy 91 11
Texas Pan American 68 - Tarleton State 61 0.679 Texas Pan American 47 - Tarleton State 65 25
The Citadel 76 - Western Carolina 75 0.515 The Citadel 100 - Western Carolina 86 -13
Toledo 80 - Ball State 66 0.783 Toledo 89 - Ball State 70 -5
UC Davis 69 - Hawaii 70 0.538 UC Davis 68 - Hawaii 73 4
UC San Diego 70 - Cal State Fullerton 73 0.584 UC San Diego 89 - Cal State Fullerton 85 -7
UC Santa Barbara 79 - Cal Poly 51 0.967 UC Santa Barbara 71 - Cal Poly 57 14
Virginia Commonwealth 75 - Dayton 67 0.682 Virginia Commonwealth 73 - Dayton 68 3
Wake Forest 67 - Georgia Tech 80 0.783 Wake Forest 63 - Georgia Tech 75 -1
Western Kentucky 74 - Old Dominion 66 0.745 Western Kentucky 69 - Old Dominion 71 10
Western Michigan 68 - Eastern Michigan 66 0.544 Western Michigan 63 - Eastern Michigan 64 3

GAMES OF 3-6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 74 - Incarnate Word 53 0.893 Abilene Christian 85 - Incarnate Word 60 -4
Arkansas 80 - Texas AM 62 0.862 Arkansas 87 - Texas AM 80 11
Army 72 - American 67 0.651 Army 89 - American 66 -18
Auburn 76 - Mississippi State 73 0.564 Auburn 78 - Mississippi State 71 -4
Belmont 71 - Morehead State 66 0.635 Belmont 71 - Morehead State 86 20
Bryant 77 - Sacred Heart 67 0.751 Bryant 85 - Sacred Heart 55 -20
Cal Baptist 72 - Seattle 69 0.569 Cal Baptist 79 - Seattle 76 0
Cal State Northridge 66 - UC Riverside 76 0.727 Cal State Northridge 65 - UC Riverside 66 -9
Chattanooga 67 - East Tennessee State 68 0.535 Chattanooga 53 - East Tennessee State 63 9
Clemson 76 - Pittsburgh 65 0.73 Clemson 77 - Pittsburgh 62 -4
Coastal Carolina 72 - Troy 62 0.8 Coastal Carolina 86 - Troy 68 -8
Colgate 83 - Boston 64 0.862 Colgate 77 - Boston 69 11
Connecticut 77 - Georgetown 69 0.784 Connecticut 98 - Georgetown 82 -8
Creighton 79 - Butler 66 0.802 Creighton 93 - Butler 73 -7
Delaware State 60 - Morgan State 78 0.881 Delaware State 82 - Morgan State 75 -25
Dixie State 63 - New Mexico State 70 0.67 Dixie State 56 - New Mexico State 68 5
Drake 75 - Missouri State 71 0.6 Drake 71 - Missouri State 69 2
Elon 69 - Towson 66 0.582 Elon 69 - Towson 48 -18
Fresno State 62 - Utah State 75 0.832 Fresno State 51 - Utah State 57 -7
Furman 76 - Virginia Military Institute 69 0.682 Furman 90 - Virginia Military Institute 91 8
Georgia 73 - Alabama 83 0.71 Georgia 79 - Alabama 89 0
Georgia State 76 - Arkansas State 68 0.739 Georgia State 71 - Arkansas State 68 5
Grambling State 65 - Alabama AM 57 0.705 Grambling State 80 - Alabama AM 72 0
Grand Canyon 72 - Utah Valley 64 0.743 Grand Canyon 74 - Utah Valley 64 -2
Houston Baptist 70 - Texas AM CC 65 0.624 Houston Baptist 70 - Texas AM CC 94 29
Jackson State 70 - Alabama State 54 0.886 Jackson State 79 - Alabama State 54 -9
Kansas State 73 - Iowa State 70 0.587 Kansas State 61 - Iowa State 56 -2
Kentucky 80 - South Carolina 71 0.695 Kentucky 92 - South Carolina 64 -19
Lafayette 75 - Bucknell 71 0.613 Lafayette 84 - Bucknell 92 12
Long Beach State 63 - UC Irvine 76 0.813 Long Beach State 58 - UC Irvine 73 2
Louisville 68 - Virginia 69 0.526 Louisville 58 - Virginia 68 9
Loyola Ill 73 - Indiana State 62 0.781 Loyola Ill 65 - Indiana State 49 -5
Marquette 73 - Xavier 76 0.576 Marquette 66 - Xavier 59 -10
Marshall 79 - Charlotte 63 0.869 Marshall 75 - Charlotte 66 7
Mcneese State 67 - Lamar 68 0.528 Mcneese State 51 - Lamar 60 8
Minnesota 74 - Rutgers 76 0.565 Minnesota 70 - Rutgers 77 5
Mississippi 76 - Vanderbilt 68 0.716 Mississippi 56 - Vanderbilt 46 -2
Missouri 77 - Louisiana State 78 0.502 Missouri 80 - Louisiana State 86 5
Montana 84 - Unranked 54 Montana 80 - Unranked 62
Montana State 70 - Sacramento State 65 0.653 Montana State 73 - Sacramento State 74 6
Navy 75 - Loyola MD 63 0.836 Navy 68 - Loyola MD 76 20
New Orleans 71 - Southeast Louisiana 66 0.632 New Orleans 81 - Southeast Louisiana 76 0
North Carolina 79 - Duke 75 0.593 North Carolina 91 - Duke 73 -14
North Texas 69 - Alabama Birmingham 64 0.66 North Texas 61 - Alabama Birmingham 65 9
Northwestern State 72 - Central Arkansas 66 0.654 Northwestern State 79 - Central Arkansas 70 -3
Notre Dame 73 - Florida State 82 0.729 Notre Dame 83 - Florida State 73 -19
Ohio State 79 - Illinois 78 0.526 Ohio State 68 - Illinois 73 6
Pepperdine 74 - Santa Clara 71 0.596 Pepperdine 78 - Santa Clara 70 -5
Portland State 67 - Southern Utah 72 0.635 Portland State 54 - Southern Utah 73 14
Prairie View 72 - Alcorn State 57 0.845 Prairie View 81 - Alcorn State 69 3
Providence 71 - Villanova 77 0.657 Providence 54 - Villanova 52 -8
Purdue 78 - Indiana 70 0.721 Purdue 67 - Indiana 58 -1
Saint Bonaventure 73 - Saint Louis 67 0.625 Saint Bonaventure 71 - Saint Louis 53 -12
Saint Johns 76 - Seton Hall 77 0.521 Saint Johns 81 - Seton Hall 71 -11
Saint Marys 68 - Loyola Marymount 64 0.657 Saint Marys 52 - Loyola Marymount 47 -1
Sam Houston State 71 - Stephen F Austin 69 0.564 Sam Houston State 59 - Stephen F Austin 64 7
South Dakota 77 - Western Illinois 65 0.806 South Dakota 86 - Western Illinois 69 -5
South Dakota State 81 - Omaha 62 0.916 South Dakota State 84 - Omaha 71 6
Texas Pan American 68 - Tarleton State 61 0.679 Texas Pan American 58 - Tarleton State 69 18
Texas Southern 70 - Southern 63 0.692 Texas Southern 80 - Southern 74 1
Texas State 69 - Appalachian State 61 0.734 Texas State 73 - Appalachian State 76 11
UC Davis 69 - Hawaii 70 0.538 UC Davis 74 - Hawaii 66 -9
UC San Diego 70 - Cal State Fullerton 73 0.584 UC San Diego 85 - Cal State Fullerton 78 -10
UC Santa Barbara 79 - Cal Poly 51 0.967 UC Santa Barbara 70 - Cal Poly 54 12
UCLA 72 - Southern California 73 0.526 UCLA 63 - Southern California 64 0
UL Lafayette 71 - South Alabama 69 0.555 UL Lafayette 79 - South Alabama 68 -9
UMBC 73 - UMass Lowell 64 0.748 UMBC 77 - UMass Lowell 79 11
UNC Greensboro 78 - The Citadel 66 0.789 UNC Greensboro 80 - The Citadel 72 4
Utah 77 - Arizona State 74 0.574 Utah 98 - Arizona State 59 -36
Vermont 72 - Hartford 63 0.747 Vermont 65 - Hartford 71 15
Virginia Commonwealth 72 - Davidson 67 0.642 Virginia Commonwealth 64 - Davidson 52 -7
Wagner 66 - Mt St Marys 61 0.63 Wagner 60 - Mt St Marys 66 11
West Virginia 80 - Oklahoma State 75 0.684 West Virginia 80 - Oklahoma State 85 10
Western Kentucky 74 - Old Dominion 66 0.745 Western Kentucky 60 - Old Dominion 57 5
Wichita State 81 - South Florida 65 0.868 Wichita State 80 - South Florida 63 -1
William and Mary 69 - UNC Wilmington 72 0.572 William and Mary 73 - UNC Wilmington 60 -16
Wofford 73 - Mercer 69 0.59 Wofford 61 - Mercer 62 5
Wyoming 73 - Nevada Las Vegas 72 0.533 Wyoming 80 - Nevada Las Vegas 69 -10

GAMES OF 3-7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Baylor 78 - Texas Tech 69 0.758 Baylor 88 - Texas Tech 73 -6
Coastal Carolina 71 - Appalachian State 65 0.678 Coastal Carolina 61 - Appalachian State 64 9
College of Charleston 66 - Drexel 69 0.611 College of Charleston 75 - Drexel 80 2
East Carolina 71 - Cincinnati 75 0.612 East Carolina 69 - Cincinnati 82 9
Georgia State 74 - UL Lafayette 71 0.61 Georgia State 84 - UL Lafayette 73 -8
Hofstra 71 - Delaware 66 0.635 Hofstra 83 - Delaware 75 -3
Houston 77 - Memphis 66 0.745 Houston 67 - Memphis 64 8
Iowa 79 - Wisconsin 73 0.66 Iowa 77 - Wisconsin 73 2
James Madison 74 - Elon 63 0.763 James Madison 71 - Elon 72 12
Liberty 75 - North Alabama 58 0.866 Liberty 79 - North Alabama 75 13
Loyola Ill 72 - Drake 67 0.62 Loyola Ill 75 - Drake 65 -5
Maryland 78 - Penn State 71 0.718 Maryland 61 - Penn State 66 12
Michigan State 68 - Michigan 82 0.789 Michigan State 70 - Michigan 64 -20
North Dakota State 64 - UMKC 59 0.697 North Dakota State 69 - UMKC 65 1
Northeastern 73 - William and Mary 63 0.758 Northeastern 63 - William and Mary 47 -6
Northwestern 78 - Nebraska 72 0.679 Northwestern 79 - Nebraska 78 5
Oral Roberts 76 - North Dakota 67 0.728 Oral Roberts 76 - North Dakota 65 -2
Oregon State 69 - Oregon 74 0.65 Oregon State 67 - Oregon 80 8
Tennessee 73 - Florida 72 0.531 Tennessee 65 - Florida 54 -10
Texas Christian 70 - Texas 79 0.742 Texas Christian 64 - Texas 76 3
UNC Greensboro 69 - East Tennessee State 65 0.593 UNC Greensboro 77 - East Tennessee State 65 -8
Virginia Military Institute 73 - Mercer 74 0.534 Virginia Military Institute 59 - Mercer 73 13
Winthrop 76 - Campbell 63 0.865 Winthrop 80 - Campbell 53 -14


Number of DI Games: 268
Number Correct: 196 = 73.1%
Expected Number Correct: 186.372 = 69.5%
Average Error: 8.41
Average Signed Error: -0.03

GAMES OF 3-8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Brigham Young 80 - Pepperdine 68 0.827 Brigham Young 82 - Pepperdine 77 7
Canisius 75 - Rider 66 0.699 Canisius 76 - Rider 78 11
Cleveland State 73 - Milwaukee 66 0.688 Cleveland State 71 - Milwaukee 65 1
Georgia State 74 - Appalachian State 67 0.692 Georgia State 73 - Appalachian State 80 14
Gonzaga 79 - Saint Marys 63 0.896 Gonzaga 78 - Saint Marys 55 -7
Hofstra 71 - Elon 66 0.625 Hofstra 58 - Elon 76 23
Northeastern 68 - Drexel 67 0.532 Northeastern 67 - Drexel 74 8
Oakland 70 - Northern Kentucky 73 0.597 Oakland 69 - Northern Kentucky 58 -14
South Dakota 67 - North Dakota State 68 0.528 South Dakota 75 - North Dakota State 79 3
South Dakota State 76 - Oral Roberts 71 0.631 South Dakota State 88 - Oral Roberts 90 7
UNC Greensboro 71 - Mercer 68 0.602 UNC Greensboro 69 - Mercer 61 -5

GAMES OF 3-9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bryant 70 - Mt St Marys 63 0.692 Bryant 68 - Mt St Marys 73 12
Cal State Fullerton 74 - Cal Poly 65 0.806 Cal State Fullerton 82 - Cal Poly 87 14
Cal State Northridge 74 - Long Beach State 72 0.564 Cal State Northridge 63 - Long Beach State 85 24
Cleveland State 74 - Oakland 68 0.627 Cleveland State 80 - Oakland 69 -5
Drexel 69 - Elon 65 0.614 Drexel 63 - Elon 56 -3
Duke 84 - Boston College 72 0.805 Duke 86 - Boston College 51 -23
Fairfield 64 - Manhattan 65 0.511 Fairfield 59 - Manhattan 58 -2
Gonzaga 82 - Brigham Young 72 0.769 Gonzaga 88 - Brigham Young 78 0
Incarnate Word 68 - Houston Baptist 67 0.517 Incarnate Word 68 - Houston Baptist 80 13
North Dakota State 70 - Oral Roberts 69 0.514 North Dakota State 72 - Oral Roberts 75 4
Notre Dame 79 - Wake Forest 69 0.747 Notre Dame 80 - Wake Forest 77 7
Pittsburgh 75 - Miami 70 0.65 Pittsburgh 73 - Miami 79 11
Quinnipiac 66 - Iona 73 0.658 Quinnipiac 48 - Iona 72 17
Rice 73 - Southern Miss 69 0.606 Rice 61 - Southern Miss 52 -5
Southeast Louisiana 68 - Mcneese State 66 0.545 Southeast Louisiana 71 - Mcneese State 68 -1

GAMES OF 3-10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arizona State 74 - Washington State 75 0.519 Arizona State 64 - Washington State 59 -6
Army 74 - Loyola MD 66 0.689 Army 63 - Loyola MD 67 12
Clemson 76 - Miami 63 0.789 Clemson 64 - Miami 67 16
Colgate 86 - Bucknell 64 0.902 Colgate 105 - Bucknell 75 -8
Florida Atlantic 69 - Texas El Paso 71 0.569 Florida Atlantic 76 - Texas El Paso 70 -8
Fresno State 72 - New Mexico 62 0.797 Fresno State 85 - New Mexico 77 2
Georgetown 74 - Marquette 75 0.54 Georgetown 68 - Marquette 49 -20
Jackson State 69 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 55 0.825 Jackson State 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 62 2
Lamar 71 - Houston Baptist 65 0.646 Lamar 62 - Houston Baptist 52 -4
Louisville 75 - Duke 74 0.518 Louisville 56 - Duke 70 15
Marshall 81 - Rice 71 0.759 Marshall 68 - Rice 72 14
Monmouth 74 - Fairfield 65 0.728 Monmouth 60 - Fairfield 79 28
Montana 75 - Idaho 58 0.905 Montana 69 - Idaho 64 12
Nevada Las Vegas 74 - Air Force 62 0.83 Nevada Las Vegas 80 - Air Force 52 -16
New Orleans 72 - Southeast Louisiana 66 0.664 New Orleans 80 - Southeast Louisiana 63 -11
North Carolina 79 - Notre Dame 72 0.669 North Carolina 101 - Notre Dame 59 -35
North Texas 76 - Middle Tennessee 57 0.897 North Texas 76 - Middle Tennessee 56 -1
Northern Colorado 67 - Sacramento State 66 0.531 Northern Colorado 90 - Sacramento State 83 -6
Northwestern 75 - Minnesota 77 0.533 Northwestern 46 - Minnesota 51 3
Oklahoma 82 - Iowa State 67 0.847 Oklahoma 79 - Iowa State 73 9
Penn State 81 - Nebraska 72 0.72 Penn State 72 - Nebraska 66 3
Portland State 69 - Northern Arizona 62 0.683 Portland State 66 - Northern Arizona 77 18
Prairie View 79 - Mississippi Valley State 51 0.943 Prairie View 91 - Mississippi Valley State 64 1
Providence 76 - DePaul 67 0.773 Providence 62 - DePaul 70 17
Siena 69 - Iona 67 0.548 Siena 52 - Iona 55 5
Stanford 76 - California 67 0.713 Stanford 58 - California 76 27
Syracuse 76 - NC State 73 0.574 Syracuse 89 - NC State 68 -18
Texas Christian 72 - Kansas State 69 0.611 Texas Christian 50 - Kansas State 71 24
Texas San Antonio 74 - Charlotte 68 0.651 Texas San Antonio 72 - Charlotte 62 -4
Utah 79 - Washington 69 0.703 Utah 98 - Washington 95 7
Vanderbilt 73 - Texas AM 69 0.622 Vanderbilt 79 - Texas AM 68 -7
Wyoming 81 - San Jose State 67 0.809 Wyoming 111 - San Jose State 80 -17
Xavier 74 - Butler 69 0.643 Xavier 69 - Butler 70 6

GAMES OF 3-11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 73 - Bowling Green 72 0.545 Akron 74 - Bowling Green 67 -6
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Rice 65 0.736 Alabama Birmingham 73 - Rice 60 -2
Baylor 85 - Kansas State 61 0.943 Baylor 74 - Kansas State 68 18
Boise State 74 - Nevada 70 0.58 Boise State 82 - Nevada 89 11
Buffalo 77 - Miami OH 67 0.729 Buffalo 74 - Miami OH 63 -1
Cal Baptist 72 - Seattle 71 0.527 Cal Baptist 66 - Seattle 83 18
Central Florida 75 - East Carolina 68 0.712 Central Florida 72 - East Carolina 62 -3
Colorado 80 - California 62 0.87 Colorado 61 - California 58 15
Colorado State 75 - Fresno State 64 0.812 Colorado State 72 - Fresno State 62 1
Connecticut 80 - DePaul 64 0.914 Connecticut 94 - DePaul 60 -18
Creighton 78 - Butler 67 0.769 Creighton 87 - Butler 56 -20
Eastern Washington 79 - Northern Arizona 62 0.912 Eastern Washington 66 - Northern Arizona 60 11
Florida 80 - Vanderbilt 68 0.796 Florida 69 - Vanderbilt 63 6
Florida AM 62 - Morgan State 68 0.665 Florida AM 75 - Morgan State 77 -4
Georgia Tech 80 - Miami 67 0.816 Georgia Tech 70 - Miami 66 9
Idaho State 65 - Montana State 66 0.532 Idaho State 63 - Montana State 71 7
Kansas 76 - Oklahoma 71 0.609 Kansas 69 - Oklahoma 62 -2
Kent State 73 - Ohio 72 0.512 Kent State 63 - Ohio 85 23
Kentucky 73 - Mississippi State 70 0.559 Kentucky 73 - Mississippi State 74 4
Louisiana Tech 76 - Florida Atlantic 64 0.768 Louisiana Tech 75 - Florida Atlantic 69 6
Marist 65 - Niagara 64 0.529 Marist 62 - Niagara 67 6
Maryland 73 - Michigan State 71 0.531 Maryland 68 - Michigan State 57 -9
Mississippi 78 - South Carolina 69 0.693 Mississippi 76 - South Carolina 59 -8
Missouri 80 - Georgia 75 0.622 Missouri 73 - Georgia 70 2
Nevada Las Vegas 64 - Utah State 75 0.787 Nevada Las Vegas 53 - Utah State 74 10
New Mexico State 71 - Texas Pan American 60 0.737 New Mexico State 77 - Texas Pan American 61 -5
Norfolk State 70 - North Carolina Central 57 0.83 Norfolk State 87 - North Carolina Central 58 -16
Northwestern State 69 - New Orleans 72 0.566 Northwestern State 82 - New Orleans 79 -6
Ohio State 83 - Minnesota 72 0.736 Ohio State 79 - Minnesota 75 7
Old Dominion 65 - North Texas 69 0.626 Old Dominion 55 - North Texas 61 2
Oregon 82 - Arizona State 71 0.791 Oregon 91 - Arizona State 73 -7
Rutgers 75 - Indiana 73 0.552 Rutgers 61 - Indiana 50 -9
Saint Johns 78 - Seton Hall 77 0.506 Saint Johns 69 - Seton Hall 77 9
Saint Peters 70 - Rider 62 0.705 Saint Peters 75 - Rider 60 -7
Sam Houston State 72 - Lamar 61 0.792 Sam Houston State 69 - Lamar 70 12
San Diego State 80 - Wyoming 63 0.904 San Diego State 69 - Wyoming 66 14
South Florida 70 - Temple 73 0.601 South Florida 73 - Temple 71 -5
Southern California 77 - Utah 68 0.701 Southern California 91 - Utah 85 3
Southern Utah 74 - Northern Colorado 64 0.788 Southern Utah 91 - Northern Colorado 83 2
Texas 72 - Texas Tech 73 0.506 Texas 67 - Texas Tech 66 -2
Texas Southern 72 - Alcorn State 62 0.786 Texas Southern 78 - Alcorn State 55 -13
Toledo 78 - Ball State 68 0.714 Toledo 91 - Ball State 89 8
Tulsa 71 - Tulane 67 0.632 Tulsa 70 - Tulane 77 11
UC Davis 65 - Cal State Bakersfield 71 0.664 UC Davis 58 - Cal State Bakersfield 56 -8
UC Irvine 75 - Cal Poly 54 0.94 UC Irvine 58 - Cal Poly 51 14
UC Riverside 71 - Hawaii 64 0.702 UC Riverside 62 - Hawaii 52 -3
UC Santa Barbara 79 - Long Beach State 60 0.894 UC Santa Barbara 95 - Long Beach State 87 11
UCLA 75 - Oregon State 69 0.655 UCLA 79 - Oregon State 83 10
Villanova 79 - Georgetown 69 0.766 Villanova 71 - Georgetown 72 11
Virginia 73 - Syracuse 68 0.62 Virginia 72 - Syracuse 69 2
Virginia Tech 73 - North Carolina 74 0.536 Virginia Tech 73 - North Carolina 81 7
Weber State 73 - Montana 66 0.708 Weber State 75 - Montana 80 12
West Virginia 79 - Oklahoma State 78 0.54 West Virginia 69 - Oklahoma State 72 4
Western Kentucky 77 - Texas San Antonio 70 0.656 Western Kentucky 80 - Texas San Antonio 67 -6
Wisconsin 76 - Penn State 72 0.615 Wisconsin 75 - Penn State 74 3

GAMES OF 3-12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Abilene Christian 73 - Lamar 57 0.867 Abilene Christian 93 - Lamar 71 -6
Alabama 78 - Mississippi State 68 0.734 Alabama 85 - Mississippi State 48 -27
Arkansas 80 - Missouri 73 0.658 Arkansas 70 - Missouri 64 1
Baylor 82 - Oklahoma State 73 0.752 Baylor 74 - Oklahoma State 83 18
Buffalo 76 - Akron 71 0.614 Buffalo 81 - Akron 74 -2
Coppin State 66 - Morgan State 70 0.599 Coppin State 61 - Morgan State 82 17
Creighton 75 - Connecticut 74 0.52 Creighton 59 - Connecticut 56 -2
Eastern Washington 74 - Montana 68 0.726 Eastern Washington 78 - Montana 50 -22
Florida State 79 - North Carolina 76 0.554 Florida State 69 - North Carolina 66 0
Grand Canyon 71 - Seattle 63 0.732 Grand Canyon 81 - Seattle 47 -26
Houston 81 - Tulane 59 0.922 Houston 77 - Tulane 52 -3
Illinois 80 - Rutgers 71 0.713 Illinois 90 - Rutgers 68 -13
Iowa 79 - Wisconsin 74 0.635 Iowa 62 - Wisconsin 57 0
Jackson State 63 - Texas Southern 64 0.522 Jackson State 81 - Texas Southern 84 2
Louisiana State 76 - Mississippi 72 0.591 Louisiana State 76 - Mississippi 73 1
Louisiana Tech 69 - North Texas 66 0.588 Louisiana Tech 48 - North Texas 54 9
Memphis 76 - Central Florida 68 0.718 Memphis 70 - Central Florida 62 0
Michigan 78 - Maryland 67 0.737 Michigan 79 - Maryland 66 -2
Niagara 65 - Iona 70 0.632 Niagara 64 - Iona 70 1
Nicholls State 75 - Northwestern State 65 0.811 Nicholls State 88 - Northwestern State 76 -2
Oregon 77 - Oregon State 68 0.744 Oregon 64 - Oregon State 75 20
Prairie View 68 - Grambling State 59 0.753 Prairie View 75 - Grambling State 63 -3
Purdue 75 - Ohio State 76 0.517 Purdue 78 - Ohio State 87 8
Saint Peters 67 - Fairfield 60 0.687 Saint Peters 47 - Fairfield 52 12
San Diego State 75 - Nevada 66 0.752 San Diego State 77 - Nevada 70 2
Seton Hall 76 - Georgetown 73 0.587 Seton Hall 58 - Georgetown 66 11
Southern California 72 - Colorado 71 0.518 Southern California 70 - Colorado 72 3
Southern Methodist 77 - Cincinnati 71 0.698 Southern Methodist 71 - Cincinnati 74 9
Southern Utah 76 - Montana State 66 0.782 Southern Utah 77 - Montana State 80 13
Tennessee 73 - Florida 71 0.543 Tennessee 78 - Florida 66 -10
Toledo 76 - Ohio 71 0.607 Toledo 80 - Ohio 87 12
UC Irvine 67 - UC Riverside 66 0.533 UC Irvine 78 - UC Riverside 61 -16
UC Santa Barbara 75 - UC Davis 61 0.833 UC Santa Barbara 71 - UC Davis 55 -2
Utah State 72 - Colorado State 69 0.558 Utah State 62 - Colorado State 50 -9
Utah Valley 67 - New Mexico State 69 0.544 Utah Valley 62 - New Mexico State 78 14
Western Kentucky 68 - Alabama Birmingham 69 0.504 Western Kentucky 64 - Alabama Birmingham 60 -5
Wichita State 81 - South Florida 66 0.872 Wichita State 68 - South Florida 67 14

GAMES OF 3-13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 75 - Tennessee 72 0.578 Alabama 73 - Tennessee 68 -2
Arkansas 81 - Louisiana State 77 0.579 Arkansas 71 - Louisiana State 78 11
Buffalo 76 - Ohio 72 0.602 Buffalo 69 - Ohio 84 19
Colorado 76 - Oregon State 66 0.74 Colorado 68 - Oregon State 70 12
Creighton 80 - Georgetown 72 0.736 Creighton 48 - Georgetown 73 33
Eastern Washington 78 - Montana State 67 0.824 Eastern Washington 65 - Montana State 55 1
Fairfield 63 - Iona 73 0.714 Fairfield 51 - Iona 60 -1
Florida State 78 - Georgia Tech 75 0.582 Florida State 75 - Georgia Tech 80 8
Grand Canyon 66 - New Mexico State 62 0.608 Grand Canyon 74 - New Mexico State 56 -14
Hartford 71 - UMass Lowell 66 0.63 Hartford 64 - UMass Lowell 50 -9
Houston 75 - Memphis 67 0.694 Houston 76 - Memphis 74 6
Illinois 81 - Iowa 79 0.532 Illinois 82 - Iowa 71 -9
Michigan 78 - Ohio State 73 0.62 Michigan 67 - Ohio State 68 6
Nicholls State 64 - Abilene Christian 71 0.695 Nicholls State 45 - Abilene Christian 79 27
Norfolk State 68 - Morgan State 64 0.591 Norfolk State 71 - Morgan State 63 -4
Prairie View 67 - Texas Southern 65 0.592 Prairie View 61 - Texas Southern 80 21
San Diego State 71 - Utah State 67 0.612 San Diego State 68 - Utah State 57 -7
Texas 77 - Oklahoma State 76 0.507 Texas 91 - Oklahoma State 86 -4
UC Santa Barbara 67 - UC Irvine 64 0.589 UC Santa Barbara 79 - UC Irvine 63 -13
Western Kentucky 69 - North Texas 68 0.507 Western Kentucky 57 - North Texas 61 5
Wichita State 79 - Cincinnati 71 0.741 Wichita State 59 - Cincinnati 60 9

GAMES OF 3-14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 81 - Louisiana State 76 0.599 Alabama 80 - Louisiana State 79 4
Colgate 83 - Loyola MD 64 0.87 Colgate 85 - Loyola MD 72 6
Houston 81 - Cincinnati 65 0.85 Houston 91 - Cincinnati 54 -21
Illinois 80 - Ohio State 76 0.589 Illinois 91 - Ohio State 88 1
Saint Bonaventure 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 68 0.552 Saint Bonaventure 74 - Virginia Commonwealth 65 -7


Number of DI Games: 177
Number Correct: 115 = 64.9%
Expected Number Correct: 119.719 = 67.6%
Average Error: 9.31
Average Signed Error: 2.23

GAMES OF 3-17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Richmond 73 - Toledo 74 0.507 Richmond 76 - Toledo 66 -11
Saint Marys 67 - Western Kentucky 65 0.571 Saint Marys 67 - Western Kentucky 69 4

GAMES OF 3-18

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Boise State 71 - Southern Methodist 72 0.505 Boise State 85 - Southern Methodist 84 -2
Davidson 73 - NC State 71 0.569 Davidson 61 - NC State 75 16
Michigan State 72 - UCLA 74 0.545 Michigan State 80 - UCLA 86 4
Mt St Marys 65 - Texas Southern 63 0.547 Mt St Marys 52 - Texas Southern 60 10
Norfolk State 65 - Appalachian State 66 0.508 Norfolk State 54 - Appalachian State 53 -2
Wichita State 74 - Drake 73 0.556 Wichita State 52 - Drake 53 2

GAMES OF 3-19

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 78 - Colgate 77 0.534 Arkansas 85 - Colgate 68 -16
Baylor 82 - Hartford 61 0.914 Baylor 79 - Hartford 55 -3
Clemson 70 - Rutgers 69 0.531 Clemson 56 - Rutgers 60 5
Colorado State 74 - Buffalo 72 0.545 Colorado State 75 - Buffalo 73 0
Florida 73 - Virginia Tech 71 0.549 Florida 75 - Virginia Tech 70 -3
Houston 79 - Cleveland State 59 0.888 Houston 87 - Cleveland State 56 -11
Illinois 83 - Drexel 64 0.907 Illinois 78 - Drexel 49 -10
Loyola Ill 71 - Georgia Tech 69 0.558 Loyola Ill 71 - Georgia Tech 60 -9
Mississippi 69 - Louisiana Tech 68 0.537 Mississippi 61 - Louisiana Tech 70 10
North Carolina 74 - Wisconsin 72 0.54 North Carolina 62 - Wisconsin 85 25
Ohio State 85 - Oral Roberts 67 0.903 Ohio State 72 - Oral Roberts 75 21
Oklahoma State 77 - Liberty 66 0.805 Oklahoma State 69 - Liberty 60 2
Purdue 73 - North Texas 66 0.705 Purdue 69 - North Texas 78 16
San Diego State 74 - Syracuse 69 0.629 San Diego State 62 - Syracuse 78 21
Tennessee 75 - Oregon State 68 0.673 Tennessee 56 - Oregon State 70 21
Texas Tech 70 - Utah State 68 0.565 Texas Tech 65 - Utah State 53 -10
Villanova 76 - Winthrop 69 0.683 Villanova 73 - Winthrop 63 -3
West Virginia 77 - Morehead State 65 0.814 West Virginia 84 - Morehead State 67 -5

GAMES OF 3-20

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 79 - Iona 64 0.805 Alabama 68 - Iona 55 2
Brigham Young 76 - UCLA 71 0.656 Brigham Young 62 - UCLA 73 16
Colorado 75 - Georgetown 70 0.629 Colorado 96 - Georgetown 73 -18
Connecticut 73 - Maryland 70 0.596 Connecticut 54 - Maryland 63 12
Creighton 74 - UC Santa Barbara 68 0.641 Creighton 63 - UC Santa Barbara 62 5
Florida State 76 - UNC Greensboro 69 0.684 Florida State 64 - UNC Greensboro 54 -3
Gonzaga 87 - Norfolk State 59 0.963 Gonzaga 98 - Norfolk State 55 -15
Iowa 79 - Grand Canyon 66 0.803 Iowa 86 - Grand Canyon 74 1
Kansas 78 - Eastern Washington 66 0.82 Kansas 93 - Eastern Washington 84 3
Louisiana State 73 - Saint Bonaventure 74 0.505 Louisiana State 76 - Saint Bonaventure 61 -16
Memphis 74 - Dayton 69 0.626 Memphis 71 - Dayton 60 -6
Michigan 83 - Texas Southern 59 0.936 Michigan 82 - Texas Southern 66 8
Oklahoma 75 - Missouri 74 0.519 Oklahoma 72 - Missouri 68 -3
Saint Louis 72 - Mississippi State 70 0.551 Saint Louis 68 - Mississippi State 74 8
Southern California 76 - Drake 69 0.675 Southern California 72 - Drake 56 -9
Texas 75 - Abilene Christian 66 0.739 Texas 52 - Abilene Christian 53 10
Virginia 74 - Ohio 65 0.682 Virginia 58 - Ohio 62 13

GAMES OF 3-21

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 75 - Texas Tech 73 0.573 Arkansas 68 - Texas Tech 66 0
Baylor 78 - Wisconsin 70 0.719 Baylor 76 - Wisconsin 63 -5
Florida 81 - Oral Roberts 66 0.835 Florida 78 - Oral Roberts 81 18
Houston 77 - Rutgers 66 0.74 Houston 63 - Rutgers 60 8
Illinois 75 - Loyola Ill 69 0.64 Illinois 58 - Loyola Ill 71 19
Oklahoma State 78 - Oregon State 71 0.702 Oklahoma State 70 - Oregon State 80 17
Villanova 73 - North Texas 66 0.693 Villanova 84 - North Texas 61 -16
West Virginia 79 - Syracuse 75 0.607 West Virginia 72 - Syracuse 75 7

GAMES OF 3-22

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 78 - Maryland 69 0.702 Alabama 96 - Maryland 77 -10
Army 71 - Bellarmine 67 0.598 Army 67 - Bellarmine 77 14
Bowling Green 76 - Stetson 67 0.715 Bowling Green 52 - Stetson 53 10
Bryant 72 - Coastal Carolina 71 0.528 Bryant 82 - Coastal Carolina 93 12
Creighton 78 - Ohio 71 0.642 Creighton 72 - Ohio 58 -7
Florida State 74 - Colorado 75 0.507 Florida State 71 - Colorado 53 -19
Gonzaga 85 - Oklahoma 71 0.854 Gonzaga 87 - Oklahoma 71 -2
Iowa 79 - Oregon 75 0.608 Iowa 80 - Oregon 95 19
Kansas 73 - Southern California 72 0.514 Kansas 51 - Southern California 85 35
Michigan 80 - Louisiana State 74 0.63 Michigan 86 - Louisiana State 78 -2
Pepperdine 76 - Longwood 65 0.782 Pepperdine 80 - Longwood 66 -3
UCLA 72 - Abilene Christian 67 0.615 UCLA 67 - Abilene Christian 47 -15

GAMES OF 3-23

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Bellarmine 69 - Pepperdine 75 0.669 Bellarmine 71 - Pepperdine 82 5
Coastal Carolina 74 - Stetson 65 0.757 Coastal Carolina 77 - Stetson 72 4

GAMES OF 3-24

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Pepperdine 74 - Coastal Carolina 71 0.596 Pepperdine 84 - Coastal Carolina 61 -20

GAMES OF 3-25

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Colorado State 74 - NC State 71 0.568 Colorado State 65 - NC State 61 -1
Memphis 73 - Boise State 70 0.597 Memphis 59 - Boise State 56 0
Richmond 71 - Mississippi State 72 0.514 Richmond 67 - Mississippi State 68 0
Western Kentucky 69 - Louisiana Tech 71 0.559 Western Kentucky 65 - Louisiana Tech 72 5

GAMES OF 3-27

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Arkansas 85 - Oral Roberts 66 0.886 Arkansas 72 - Oral Roberts 70 17
Baylor 78 - Villanova 73 0.635 Baylor 62 - Villanova 51 -6
Houston 78 - Syracuse 69 0.715 Houston 62 - Syracuse 46 -7
Louisiana Tech 70 - Mississippi State 69 0.538 Louisiana Tech 62 - Mississippi State 84 23
Loyola Ill 72 - Oregon State 65 0.664 Loyola Ill 58 - Oregon State 65 14
Memphis 73 - Colorado State 69 0.6 Memphis 90 - Colorado State 67 -19

GAMES OF 3-28

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 79 - UCLA 70 0.71 Alabama 78 - UCLA 88 19
Colorado State 71 - Louisiana Tech 70 0.501 Colorado State 74 - Louisiana Tech 76 3
Gonzaga 84 - Creighton 72 0.779 Gonzaga 83 - Creighton 65 -6
Memphis 73 - Mississippi State 68 0.629 Memphis 77 - Mississippi State 64 -8
Michigan 79 - Florida State 73 0.634 Michigan 76 - Florida State 58 -12
Southern California 74 - Oregon 72 0.556 Southern California 82 - Oregon 68 -12

GAMES OF 3-29

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Baylor 80 - Arkansas 75 0.603 Baylor 81 - Arkansas 72 -4
Houston 78 - Oregon State 65 0.78 Houston 67 - Oregon State 61 7

GAMES OF 3-30

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Gonzaga 82 - Southern California 72 0.762 Gonzaga 85 - Southern California 66 -9
Michigan 79 - UCLA 69 0.741 Michigan 49 - UCLA 51 12

GAMES OF 4-3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Baylor 75 - Houston 74 0.508 Baylor 78 - Houston 59 -18
Gonzaga 85 - UCLA 70 0.877 Gonzaga 93 - UCLA 90 12

GAMES OF 4-5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Gonzaga 82 - Baylor 77 0.632 Gonzaga 70 - Baylor 86 21


Number of DI Games: 89
Number Correct: 53 = 59.5%
Expected Number Correct: 58.632 = 65.8%
Average Error: 10.02
Average Signed Error: 2.02