2015 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 38 - FCS Team 17 Air Force 63 - FCS Team 7
Alabama 38 - Wisconsin 27 0.727 Alabama 35 - Wisconsin 17 -7
Appalachian State 38 - FCS Team 17 Appalachian State 49 - FCS Team 0
Arizona 38 - Texas San Antonio 10 0.909 Arizona 42 - Texas San Antonio 32 18
Arkansas 38 - Texas El Paso 10 0.963 Arkansas 48 - Texas El Paso 13 -7
Army 31 - FCS Team 21 Army 35 - FCS Team 37
Auburn 38 - Louisville 28 0.749 Auburn 31 - Louisville 24 3
Ball State 35 - FCS Team 20 Ball State 48 - FCS Team 36
Boise State 34 - Washington 28 0.646 Boise State 16 - Washington 13 3
Boston College 41 - FCS Team 13 Boston College 24 - FCS Team 3
Buffalo 34 - FCS Team 20 Buffalo 51 - FCS Team 14
California 48 - FCS Team 21 California 73 - FCS Team 14
Central Florida 31 - Florida International 10 0.885 Central Florida 14 - Florida International 15 22
Central Michigan 20 - Oklahoma State 38 0.845 Central Michigan 13 - Oklahoma State 24 -7
Cincinnati 42 - FCS Team 14 Cincinnati 52 - FCS Team 10
Clemson 48 - FCS Team 10 Clemson 49 - FCS Team 10
Colorado State 41 - FCS Team 17 Colorado State 65 - FCS Team 13
Connecticut 31 - FCS Team 17 Connecticut 20 - FCS Team 15
East Carolina 45 - FCS Team 20 East Carolina 28 - FCS Team 10
Eastern Michigan 27 - Old Dominion 41 0.778 Eastern Michigan 34 - Old Dominion 38 -10
Florida 45 - New Mexico St 10 0.989 Florida 61 - New Mexico St 13 -13
Florida State 49 - Texas State 10 0.992 Florida State 59 - Texas State 16 -4
Fresno State 41 - FCS Team 17 Fresno State 34 - FCS Team 13
Georgia 45 - Louisiana Monroe 10 0.986 Georgia 51 - Louisiana Monroe 14 -2
Georgia State 31 - Charlotte 28 0.536 Georgia State 20 - Charlotte 23 6
Georgia Tech 52 - FCS Team 13 Georgia Tech 69 - FCS Team 6
Hawaii 28 - Colorado 34 0.627 Hawaii 28 - Colorado 20 -14
Houston 41 - FCS Team 17 Houston 52 - FCS Team 24
Idaho 20 - Ohio 24 0.617 Idaho 28 - Ohio 45 13
Illinois 31 - Kent State 14 0.837 Illinois 52 - Kent State 3 -32
Indiana 45 - FCS Team 21 Indiana 48 - FCS Team 47
Iowa 42 - FCS Team 13 Iowa 31 - FCS Team 14
Iowa State 41 - FCS Team 20 Iowa State 31 - FCS Team 7
Kansas 34 - FCS Team 20 Kansas 38 - FCS Team 41
Kansas State 49 - FCS Team 10 Kansas State 34 - FCS Team 0
Kentucky 34 - Louisiana Lafayette 24 0.745 Kentucky 40 - Louisiana Lafayette 33 3
Louisiana Tech 41 - FCS Team 17 Louisiana Tech 62 - FCS Team 15
Marshall 38 - Purdue 21 0.811 Marshall 41 - Purdue 31 7
Maryland 42 - FCS Team 17 Maryland 50 - FCS Team 21
Memphis 35 - FCS Team 17 Memphis 63 - FCS Team 7
Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 14 Miami FL 45 - FCS Team 0
Miami OH 27 - FCS Team 21 Miami OH 26 - FCS Team 7
Middle Tennessee 34 - FCS Team 20 Middle Tennessee 70 - FCS Team 14
Minnesota 24 - Texas Christian 34 0.723 Minnesota 17 - Texas Christian 23 -4
Mississippi 45 - FCS Team 10 Mississippi 76 - FCS Team 3
Missouri 48 - FCS Team 10 Missouri 34 - FCS Team 3
Navy 38 - FCS Team 17 Navy 48 - FCS Team 10
NC State 38 - Troy 20 0.848 NC State 49 - Troy 21 -10
Nebraska 35 - Brigham Young 27 0.73 Nebraska 28 - Brigham Young 33 13
Nevada 38 - FCS Team 17 Nevada 31 - FCS Team 17
New Mexico 35 - FCS Team 24 New Mexico 66 - FCS Team 0
North Carolina 28 - South Carolina 38 0.719 North Carolina 13 - South Carolina 17 -6
Northern Illinois 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.849 Northern Illinois 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 30 10
Northwestern 20 - Stanford 31 0.76 Northwestern 16 - Stanford 6 -21
Notre Dame 31 - Texas 21 0.695 Notre Dame 38 - Texas 3 -25
Oklahoma 42 - Akron 7 0.959 Oklahoma 41 - Akron 3 -3
Oregon 62 - FCS Team 10 Oregon 61 - FCS Team 42
Oregon State 45 - FCS Team 17 Oregon State 26 - FCS Team 7
Pittsburgh 42 - FCS Team 14 Pittsburgh 45 - FCS Team 37
Rice 38 - FCS Team 17 Rice 56 - FCS Team 16
Rutgers 41 - FCS Team 17 Rutgers 63 - FCS Team 13
San Diego State 35 - FCS Team 14 San Diego State 37 - FCS Team 3
San Jose State 35 - FCS Team 20 San Jose State 43 - FCS Team 13
South Alabama 31 - FCS Team 17 South Alabama 33 - FCS Team 23
South Florida 28 - FCS Team 14 South Florida 51 - FCS Team 3
Southern California 42 - Arkansas State 21 0.884 Southern California 55 - Arkansas State 6 -28
Southern Methodist 20 - Baylor 49 0.938 Southern Methodist 21 - Baylor 56 6
Southern Miss 17 - Miss State 41 0.939 Southern Miss 16 - Miss State 34 -6
Syracuse 35 - FCS Team 13 Syracuse 47 - FCS Team 0
Temple 14 - Penn State 20 0.673 Temple 27 - Penn State 10 -23
Tennessee 34 - Bowling Green 17 0.808 Tennessee 59 - Bowling Green 30 -12
Texas AM 41 - Arizona State 38 0.534 Texas AM 38 - Arizona State 17 -18
Texas Tech 49 - FCS Team 21 Texas Tech 59 - FCS Team 45
Tulane 17 - Duke 31 0.822 Tulane 7 - Duke 37 16
Tulsa 28 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.697 Tulsa 47 - Florida Atlantic 44 4
UCLA 38 - Virginia 20 0.836 UCLA 34 - Virginia 16 0
Utah 28 - Michigan 24 0.615 Utah 24 - Michigan 17 -3
Utah State 34 - FCS Team 10 Utah State 12 - FCS Team 9
Vanderbilt 34 - Western Kentucky 28 0.645 Vanderbilt 12 - Western Kentucky 14 8
Virginia Tech 20 - Ohio State 35 0.783 Virginia Tech 24 - Ohio State 42 3
Wake Forest 34 - FCS Team 17 Wake Forest 41 - FCS Team 3
Washington State 45 - FCS Team 21 Washington State 17 - FCS Team 24
West Virginia 38 - Georgia Southern 24 0.756 West Virginia 44 - Georgia Southern 0 -30
Western Michigan 17 - Michigan State 38 0.927 Western Michigan 24 - Michigan State 37 -8
Wyoming 35 - FCS Team 21 Wyoming 13 - FCS Team 24


Number of FBS Games: 39
Number Correct: 32 = 82%
Expected Number Correct: 30.782 = 78.9%
Average Error: 10.97
Average Signed Error: -4.06

WEEK 2

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 31 - San Jose State 21 0.718 Air Force 37 - San Jose State 16 -11
Akron 10 - Pittsburgh 34 0.892 Akron 7 - Pittsburgh 24 -7
Alabama 48 - Middle Tennessee 10 0.992 Alabama 37 - Middle Tennessee 10 11
Arizona State 52 - FCS Team 14 Arizona State 35 - FCS Team 21
Arkansas 42 - Toledo 21 0.931 Arkansas 12 - Toledo 16 25
Arkansas State 17 - Missouri 35 0.876 Arkansas State 20 - Missouri 27 -11
Auburn 56 - FCS Team 13 Auburn 27 - FCS Team 20
Baylor 59 - FCS Team 17 Baylor 66 - FCS Team 31
Boston College 41 - FCS Team 13 Boston College 76 - FCS Team 0
Brigham Young 29 - Boise State 28 0.526 Brigham Young 35 - Boise State 24 -10
California 35 - San Diego State 27 0.734 California 35 - San Diego State 7 -20
Central Michigan 31 - FCS Team 17 Central Michigan 31 - FCS Team 10
Charlotte 17 - FCS Team 20 Charlotte 34 - FCS Team 10
Cincinnati 28 - Temple 20 0.734 Cincinnati 26 - Temple 34 16
Clemson 38 - Appalachian State 13 0.849 Clemson 41 - Appalachian State 10 -6
Colorado 35 - Massachusetts 21 0.825 Colorado 48 - Massachusetts 14 -20
Colorado State 24 - Minnesota 28 0.649 Colorado State 20 - Minnesota 23 -1
Connecticut 24 - Army 20 0.661 Connecticut 22 - Army 17 -1
Duke 45 - FCS Team 14 Duke 55 - FCS Team 0
Florida 35 - East Carolina 24 0.796 Florida 31 - East Carolina 24 4
Florida Atlantic 20 - Miami FL 35 0.819 Florida Atlantic 20 - Miami FL 44 9
Florida State 41 - South Florida 7 0.991 Florida State 34 - South Florida 14 14
Georgia Southern 20 - Western Michigan 24 0.613 Georgia Southern 43 - Western Michigan 17 -30
Georgia Tech 41 - Tulane 10 0.974 Georgia Tech 65 - Tulane 10 -24
Illinois 45 - FCS Team 17 Illinois 44 - FCS Team 0
Indiana 31 - Florida International 17 0.786 Indiana 36 - Florida International 22 0
Iowa State 27 - Iowa 31 0.645 Iowa State 17 - Iowa 31 10
Kansas 24 - Memphis 27 0.569 Kansas 23 - Memphis 55 29
Kent State 27 - FCS Team 20 Kent State 45 - FCS Team 13
Louisiana Lafayette 38 - FCS Team 20 Louisiana Lafayette 44 - FCS Team 17
Louisiana Monroe 34 - FCS Team 20 Louisiana Monroe 47 - FCS Team 0
Louisville 31 - Houston 21 0.763 Louisville 31 - Houston 34 13
Maryland 35 - Bowling Green 24 0.781 Maryland 27 - Bowling Green 48 32
Michigan 31 - Oregon State 27 0.66 Michigan 35 - Oregon State 7 -24
Michigan State 31 - Oregon 38 0.685 Michigan State 31 - Oregon 28 -10
Miss State 28 - Louisiana State 27 0.517 Miss State 19 - Louisiana State 21 3
Mississippi 35 - Fresno State 17 0.811 Mississippi 73 - Fresno State 21 -34
NC State 45 - FCS Team 17 NC State 35 - FCS Team 0
Nebraska 38 - South Alabama 13 0.935 Nebraska 48 - South Alabama 9 -14
Nevada 28 - Arizona 35 0.681 Nevada 20 - Arizona 44 17
Nevada Las Vegas 20 - UCLA 42 0.909 Nevada Las Vegas 3 - UCLA 37 12
New Mexico 31 - Tulsa 34 0.551 New Mexico 21 - Tulsa 40 16
New Mexico St 28 - Georgia State 24 0.698 New Mexico St 32 - Georgia State 34 6
North Carolina 45 - FCS Team 14 North Carolina 53 - FCS Team 14
Northern Illinois 41 - FCS Team 17 Northern Illinois 57 - FCS Team 26
Northwestern 42 - FCS Team 10 Northwestern 41 - FCS Team 0
Ohio 21 - Marshall 35 0.807 Ohio 21 - Marshall 10 -25
Ohio State 49 - Hawaii 14 0.987 Ohio State 38 - Hawaii 0 -3
Oklahoma State 48 - FCS Team 13 Oklahoma State 32 - FCS Team 8
Old Dominion 41 - FCS Team 28 Old Dominion 24 - FCS Team 10
Penn State 31 - Buffalo 13 0.811 Penn State 27 - Buffalo 14 5
Purdue 41 - FCS Team 20 Purdue 38 - FCS Team 14
Rutgers 35 - Washington State 31 0.565 Rutgers 34 - Washington State 37 7
South Carolina 35 - Kentucky 21 0.846 South Carolina 22 - Kentucky 26 18
Southern California 49 - Idaho 7 0.992 Southern California 59 - Idaho 9 -8
Southern Methodist 25 - North Texas 24 0.53 Southern Methodist 31 - North Texas 13 -17
Southern Miss 35 - FCS Team 20 Southern Miss 52 - FCS Team 6
Stanford 27 - Central Florida 13 0.802 Stanford 31 - Central Florida 7 -10
Syracuse 24 - Wake Forest 14 0.693 Syracuse 30 - Wake Forest 17 -3
Tennessee 31 - Oklahoma 34 0.557 Tennessee 24 - Oklahoma 31 4
Texas 27 - Rice 20 0.67 Texas 42 - Rice 28 -7
Texas AM 48 - Ball State 17 0.981 Texas AM 56 - Ball State 23 -2
Texas Christian 52 - FCS Team 10 Texas Christian 70 - FCS Team 7
Texas San Antonio 17 - Kansas State 38 0.877 Texas San Antonio 3 - Kansas State 30 6
Texas State 34 - FCS Team 27 Texas State 62 - FCS Team 24
Texas Tech 42 - Texas El Paso 27 0.834 Texas Tech 69 - Texas El Paso 20 -34
Troy 35 - FCS Team 24 Troy 44 - FCS Team 16
Utah 27 - Utah State 17 0.742 Utah 24 - Utah State 14 0
Vanderbilt 17 - Georgia 35 0.868 Vanderbilt 14 - Georgia 31 -1
Virginia 20 - Notre Dame 34 0.792 Virginia 27 - Notre Dame 34 -7
Virginia Tech 42 - FCS Team 10 Virginia Tech 42 - FCS Team 3
Washington 42 - FCS Team 10 Washington 49 - FCS Team 0
West Virginia 49 - FCS Team 13 West Virginia 41 - FCS Team 17
Western Kentucky 27 - Louisiana Tech 28 0.542 Western Kentucky 41 - Louisiana Tech 38 -4
Wisconsin 45 - Miami OH 6 0.99 Wisconsin 58 - Miami OH 0 -19
Wyoming 34 - Eastern Michigan 17 0.809 Wyoming 29 - Eastern Michigan 48 36


Number of FBS Games: 51
Number Correct: 38 = 74.5%
Expected Number Correct: 39.266 = 76.9%
Average Error: 12.86
Average Signed Error: -1.38

WEEK 3

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 28 - FCS Team 17 Akron 52 - FCS Team 9
Alabama 38 - Mississippi 27 0.784 Alabama 37 - Mississippi 43 17
Arizona 52 - FCS Team 14 Arizona 77 - FCS Team 13
Arizona State 45 - New Mexico 14 0.97 Arizona State 34 - New Mexico 10 7
Arkansas 35 - Texas Tech 34 0.551 Arkansas 24 - Texas Tech 35 12
Arkansas State 41 - FCS Team 17 Arkansas State 70 - FCS Team 7
Army 17 - Wake Forest 21 0.626 Army 14 - Wake Forest 17 -1
Boise State 45 - FCS Team 10 Boise State 52 - FCS Team 0
Boston College 21 - Florida State 34 0.785 Boston College 0 - Florida State 14 1
Bowling Green 31 - Memphis 38 0.68 Bowling Green 41 - Memphis 44 -4
Central Florida 38 - FCS Team 10 Central Florida 15 - FCS Team 16
Colorado 28 - Colorado State 31 0.537 Colorado 27 - Colorado State 24 -6
Duke 27 - Northwestern 24 0.524 Duke 10 - Northwestern 19 12
Eastern Michigan 27 - Ball State 34 0.729 Eastern Michigan 17 - Ball State 28 4
Florida Atlantic 27 - Buffalo 24 0.572 Florida Atlantic 15 - Buffalo 33 21
Florida International 31 - FCS Team 17 Florida International 39 - FCS Team 14
Fresno State 24 - Utah 38 0.785 Fresno State 24 - Utah 45 7
Georgia 35 - South Carolina 24 0.831 Georgia 52 - South Carolina 20 -21
Georgia Southern 42 - FCS Team 14 Georgia Southern 48 - FCS Team 13
Hawaii 34 - FCS Team 14 Hawaii 47 - FCS Team 27
Idaho 35 - FCS Team 24 Idaho 41 - FCS Team 38
Indiana 34 - Western Kentucky 31 0.555 Indiana 38 - Western Kentucky 35 0
Iowa 28 - Pittsburgh 21 0.696 Iowa 27 - Pittsburgh 24 4
Kansas State 38 - Louisiana Tech 20 0.857 Kansas State 39 - Louisiana Tech 33 12
Kentucky 27 - Florida 31 0.692 Kentucky 9 - Florida 14 1
Louisiana State 31 - Auburn 27 0.587 Louisiana State 45 - Auburn 21 -20
Louisville 24 - Clemson 28 0.621 Louisville 17 - Clemson 20 -1
Marshall 42 - FCS Team 14 Marshall 45 - FCS Team 7
Maryland 24 - South Florida 21 0.585 Maryland 35 - South Florida 17 -15
Massachusetts 13 - Temple 35 0.9 Massachusetts 23 - Temple 25 -20
Miami FL 28 - Nebraska 31 0.534 Miami FL 36 - Nebraska 33 -6
Miami OH 17 - Cincinnati 38 0.934 Miami OH 33 - Cincinnati 37 -17
Michigan 38 - Nevada Las Vegas 13 0.969 Michigan 28 - Nevada Las Vegas 7 4
Michigan State 38 - Air Force 14 0.951 Michigan State 35 - Air Force 21 10
Middle Tennessee 24 - Charlotte 0 0.987 Middle Tennessee 73 - Charlotte 14 -35
Minnesota 35 - Kent State 3 0.97 Minnesota 10 - Kent State 7 29
Miss State 48 - FCS Team 7 Miss State 62 - FCS Team 13
Missouri 34 - Connecticut 7 0.959 Missouri 9 - Connecticut 6 24
Navy 29 - East Carolina 28 0.519 Navy 45 - East Carolina 21 -23
New Mexico St 28 - Texas El Paso 34 0.662 New Mexico St 47 - Texas El Paso 50 -3
North Carolina 31 - Illinois 28 0.541 North Carolina 48 - Illinois 14 -31
North Texas 21 - Rice 28 0.686 North Texas 24 - Rice 38 7
Notre Dame 34 - Georgia Tech 35 0.517 Notre Dame 30 - Georgia Tech 22 -9
Ohio 35 - FCS Team 13 Ohio 35 - FCS Team 14
Ohio State 48 - Northern Illinois 20 0.946 Ohio State 20 - Northern Illinois 13 21
Oklahoma 45 - Tulsa 17 0.964 Oklahoma 52 - Tulsa 38 14
Oklahoma State 35 - Texas San Antonio 13 0.909 Oklahoma State 69 - Texas San Antonio 14 -33
Old Dominion 27 - NC State 38 0.792 Old Dominion 14 - NC State 38 13
Oregon 55 - Georgia State 6 0.992 Oregon 61 - Georgia State 28 16
Oregon State 34 - San Jose State 17 0.832 Oregon State 35 - San Jose State 21 3
Penn State 27 - Rutgers 20 0.687 Penn State 28 - Rutgers 3 -18
Purdue 24 - Virginia Tech 34 0.754 Purdue 24 - Virginia Tech 51 17
San Diego State 24 - South Alabama 14 0.751 San Diego State 27 - South Alabama 34 17
Southern California 31 - Stanford 24 0.729 Southern California 31 - Stanford 41 17
Syracuse 27 - Central Michigan 14 0.76 Syracuse 30 - Central Michigan 27 10
Tennessee 49 - FCS Team 13 Tennessee 55 - FCS Team 10
Texas 29 - California 28 0.517 Texas 44 - California 45 2
Texas AM 48 - Nevada 21 0.952 Texas AM 44 - Nevada 27 10
Texas Christian 42 - Southern Methodist 10 0.966 Texas Christian 56 - Southern Methodist 37 13
Texas State 30 - Southern Miss 31 0.523 Texas State 50 - Southern Miss 56 5
Toledo 31 - Iowa State 21 0.731 Toledo 30 - Iowa State 23 3
Tulane 31 - FCS Team 17 Tulane 38 - FCS Team 7
UCLA 34 - Brigham Young 27 0.685 UCLA 24 - Brigham Young 23 6
Vanderbilt 38 - FCS Team 10 Vanderbilt 47 - FCS Team 7
Virginia 42 - FCS Team 13 Virginia 35 - FCS Team 29
Washington 24 - Utah State 14 0.758 Washington 31 - Utah State 17 -4
Washington State 45 - Wyoming 21 0.931 Washington State 31 - Wyoming 14 7
Western Michigan 38 - FCS Team 17 Western Michigan 52 - FCS Team 20
Wisconsin 49 - Troy 13 0.987 Wisconsin 28 - Troy 3 11


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 42 = 80.7%
Expected Number Correct: 39.262 = 75.5%
Average Error: 12
Average Signed Error: 1.73

WEEK 4

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Alabama 45 - Louisiana Monroe 7 0.992 Alabama 34 - Louisiana Monroe 0 4
Arizona 31 - UCLA 35 0.622 Arizona 30 - UCLA 56 22
Arizona State 28 - Southern California 35 0.652 Arizona State 14 - Southern California 42 21
Auburn 32 - Miss State 31 0.522 Auburn 9 - Miss State 17 9
Baylor 52 - Rice 21 0.988 Baylor 70 - Rice 17 -22
Boston College 20 - Northern Illinois 17 0.54 Boston College 17 - Northern Illinois 14 0
Buffalo 27 - Nevada 24 0.568 Buffalo 21 - Nevada 24 6
Charlotte 17 - Florida Atlantic 35 0.83 Charlotte 7 - Florida Atlantic 17 -8
Colorado 45 - FCS Team 17 Colorado 48 - FCS Team 0
Connecticut 17 - Navy 27 0.733 Connecticut 18 - Navy 28 0
Duke 28 - Georgia Tech 35 0.73 Duke 34 - Georgia Tech 20 -21
East Carolina 27 - Virginia Tech 35 0.723 East Carolina 35 - Virginia Tech 28 -15
Eastern Michigan 21 - Army 24 0.571 Eastern Michigan 36 - Army 58 19
Florida 27 - Tennessee 24 0.56 Florida 28 - Tennessee 27 2
Georgia 59 - FCS Team 10 Georgia 48 - FCS Team 6
Houston 52 - Texas State 24 0.966 Houston 59 - Texas State 14 -17
Idaho 20 - Georgia Southern 38 0.838 Idaho 20 - Georgia Southern 44 6
Illinois 34 - Middle Tennessee 31 0.55 Illinois 27 - Middle Tennessee 25 1
Iowa 35 - North Texas 10 0.969 Iowa 62 - North Texas 16 -21
Kent State 13 - Marshall 27 0.74 Kent State 29 - Marshall 36 -7
Kentucky 20 - Missouri 21 0.53 Kentucky 21 - Missouri 13 -9
Louisiana Lafayette 28 - Akron 17 0.817 Louisiana Lafayette 14 - Akron 35 32
Louisiana Tech 34 - Florida International 17 0.82 Louisiana Tech 27 - Florida International 17 7
Louisville 48 - FCS Team 10 Louisville 45 - FCS Team 3
Memphis 38 - Cincinnati 28 0.742 Memphis 53 - Cincinnati 46 3
Michigan 23 - Brigham Young 24 0.538 Michigan 31 - Brigham Young 0 -32
Michigan State 35 - Central Michigan 13 0.961 Michigan State 30 - Central Michigan 10 2
Minnesota 20 - Ohio 13 0.656 Minnesota 27 - Ohio 24 4
Mississippi 41 - Vanderbilt 17 0.906 Mississippi 27 - Vanderbilt 16 13
Nebraska 48 - Southern Miss 21 0.955 Nebraska 36 - Southern Miss 28 19
Nevada Las Vegas 38 - FCS Team 20 Nevada Las Vegas 80 - FCS Team 8
North Carolina 49 - FCS Team 10 North Carolina 41 - FCS Team 14
Northwestern 34 - Ball State 10 0.929 Northwestern 24 - Ball State 19 19
Notre Dame 45 - Massachusetts 10 0.985 Notre Dame 62 - Massachusetts 27 0
Ohio State 45 - Western Michigan 13 0.962 Ohio State 38 - Western Michigan 12 6
Old Dominion 28 - Appalachian State 31 0.548 Old Dominion 0 - Appalachian State 49 46
Oregon 38 - Utah 27 0.765 Oregon 20 - Utah 62 53
Oregon State 14 - Stanford 34 0.897 Oregon State 24 - Stanford 42 -2
Penn State 27 - San Diego State 7 0.847 Penn State 37 - San Diego State 21 4
Purdue 34 - Bowling Green 38 0.654 Purdue 28 - Bowling Green 35 3
Rutgers 28 - Kansas 21 0.652 Rutgers 27 - Kansas 14 -6
San Jose State 31 - Fresno State 35 0.637 San Jose State 49 - Fresno State 23 -30
South Alabama 20 - NC State 34 0.806 South Alabama 13 - NC State 63 36
South Carolina 28 - Central Florida 17 0.759 South Carolina 31 - Central Florida 14 -6
Southern Methodist 42 - FCS Team 17 Southern Methodist 45 - FCS Team 48
Syracuse 17 - Louisiana State 35 0.865 Syracuse 24 - Louisiana State 34 -8
Texas 28 - Oklahoma State 38 0.675 Texas 27 - Oklahoma State 30 -7
Texas AM 35 - Arkansas 24 0.744 Texas AM 28 - Arkansas 21 4
Texas El Paso 38 - FCS Team 27 Texas El Paso 27 - FCS Team 17
Texas San Antonio 21 - Colorado State 28 0.69 Texas San Antonio 31 - Colorado State 33 -5
Texas Tech 38 - Texas Christian 41 0.525 Texas Tech 52 - Texas Christian 55 0
Toledo 35 - Arkansas State 20 0.827 Toledo 37 - Arkansas State 7 -15
Virginia 27 - Boise State 28 0.54 Virginia 14 - Boise State 56 41
Wake Forest 24 - Indiana 28 0.663 Wake Forest 24 - Indiana 31 3
Washington 34 - California 27 0.753 Washington 24 - California 30 13
West Virginia 42 - Maryland 17 0.857 West Virginia 45 - Maryland 6 -14
Western Kentucky 41 - Miami OH 20 0.883 Western Kentucky 56 - Miami OH 14 -21
Wisconsin 38 - Hawaii 10 0.926 Wisconsin 28 - Hawaii 0 0
Wyoming 25 - New Mexico 24 0.532 Wyoming 28 - New Mexico 38 11


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 41 = 78.8%
Expected Number Correct: 38.94 = 74.8%
Average Error: 12.98
Average Signed Error: 2.75

WEEK 5

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Ohio 20 0.549 Akron 12 - Ohio 14 -1
Appalachian State 41 - Wyoming 10 0.945 Appalachian State 31 - Wyoming 13 13
Arkansas State 35 - Idaho 24 0.825 Arkansas State 49 - Idaho 35 -3
Auburn 42 - San Jose State 20 0.924 Auburn 35 - San Jose State 21 8
Ball State 24 - Toledo 31 0.738 Ball State 10 - Toledo 24 7
Baylor 55 - Texas Tech 42 0.769 Baylor 63 - Texas Tech 35 -15
Boise State 38 - Hawaii 13 0.906 Boise State 55 - Hawaii 0 -30
Brigham Young 24 - Connecticut 10 0.815 Brigham Young 30 - Connecticut 13 -3
Buffalo 27 - Bowling Green 28 0.573 Buffalo 22 - Bowling Green 28 5
California 41 - Washington State 27 0.877 California 34 - Washington State 28 8
Central Michigan 21 - Northern Illinois 27 0.618 Central Michigan 29 - Northern Illinois 19 -16
Charlotte 0 - Temple 28 0.955 Charlotte 3 - Temple 37 6
Cincinnati 31 - Miami FL 35 0.629 Cincinnati 34 - Miami FL 23 -15
Clemson 31 - Notre Dame 24 0.684 Clemson 24 - Notre Dame 22 5
Colorado 31 - Oregon 41 0.667 Colorado 24 - Oregon 41 7
Duke 21 - Boston College 14 0.744 Duke 9 - Boston College 7 5
Florida 28 - Mississippi 31 0.551 Florida 38 - Mississippi 10 -31
Georgia 38 - Alabama 35 0.562 Georgia 10 - Alabama 38 31
Georgia State 31 - FCS Team 27 Georgia State 33 - FCS Team 41
Georgia Tech 35 - North Carolina 31 0.576 Georgia Tech 31 - North Carolina 38 11
Illinois 28 - Nebraska 31 0.557 Illinois 14 - Nebraska 13 -4
Indiana 24 - Ohio State 38 0.841 Indiana 27 - Ohio State 34 -7
Iowa State 31 - Kansas 17 0.802 Iowa State 38 - Kansas 13 -11
Kent State 27 - Miami OH 17 0.724 Kent State 20 - Miami OH 14 4
Kentucky 45 - FCS Team 10 Kentucky 34 - FCS Team 27
Louisiana Monroe 21 - Georgia Southern 28 0.704 Louisiana Monroe 31 - Georgia Southern 51 13
Louisiana State 55 - Eastern Michigan 10 0.992 Louisiana State 44 - Eastern Michigan 22 23
Louisiana Tech 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 21 0.821 Louisiana Tech 43 - Louisiana Lafayette 14 -12
Marshall 38 - Old Dominion 17 0.855 Marshall 27 - Old Dominion 7 1
Maryland 17 - Michigan 31 0.796 Maryland 0 - Michigan 28 14
Massachusetts 23 - Florida International 24 0.532 Massachusetts 24 - Florida International 14 -11
Michigan State 42 - Purdue 14 0.99 Michigan State 24 - Purdue 21 25
Middle Tennessee 21 - Vanderbilt 24 0.56 Middle Tennessee 13 - Vanderbilt 17 1
Missouri 23 - South Carolina 24 0.528 Missouri 24 - South Carolina 10 -15
Navy 31 - Air Force 21 0.746 Navy 33 - Air Force 11 -12
NC State 31 - Louisville 28 0.539 NC State 13 - Louisville 20 10
Nevada 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 0.752 Nevada 17 - Nevada Las Vegas 23 13
New Mexico 35 - New Mexico St 27 0.818 New Mexico 38 - New Mexico St 29 -1
Northwestern 20 - Minnesota 10 0.759 Northwestern 27 - Minnesota 0 -17
Oklahoma 30 - West Virginia 31 0.521 Oklahoma 44 - West Virginia 24 -21
Oklahoma State 31 - Kansas State 28 0.591 Oklahoma State 36 - Kansas State 34 1
Penn State 28 - Army 13 0.869 Penn State 20 - Army 14 9
Rice 28 - Western Kentucky 38 0.734 Rice 10 - Western Kentucky 49 29
San Diego State 34 - Fresno State 28 0.637 San Diego State 21 - Fresno State 7 -8
South Florida 24 - Memphis 35 0.787 South Florida 17 - Memphis 24 -4
Southern Methodist 28 - East Carolina 34 0.597 Southern Methodist 23 - East Carolina 49 20
Southern Miss 38 - North Texas 24 0.795 Southern Miss 49 - North Texas 14 -21
Stanford 41 - Arizona 27 0.793 Stanford 55 - Arizona 17 -24
Tennessee 28 - Arkansas 24 0.678 Tennessee 20 - Arkansas 24 8
Texas AM 31 - Miss State 27 0.657 Texas AM 30 - Miss State 17 -9
Texas Christian 42 - Texas 28 0.776 Texas Christian 50 - Texas 7 -29
Texas El Paso 30 - Texas San Antonio 31 0.523 Texas El Paso 6 - Texas San Antonio 25 18
Troy 27 - South Alabama 20 0.689 Troy 18 - South Alabama 24 13
Tulane 14 - Central Florida 28 0.773 Tulane 45 - Central Florida 31 -28
Tulsa 31 - Houston 42 0.765 Tulsa 24 - Houston 38 3
UCLA 35 - Arizona State 21 0.798 UCLA 23 - Arizona State 38 29
Utah State 27 - Colorado State 17 0.753 Utah State 33 - Colorado State 18 -5
Virginia Tech 25 - Pittsburgh 24 0.519 Virginia Tech 13 - Pittsburgh 17 5
Wake Forest 13 - Florida State 31 0.921 Wake Forest 16 - Florida State 24 -10
Wisconsin 31 - Iowa 24 0.721 Wisconsin 6 - Iowa 10 11


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 41 = 70.6%
Expected Number Correct: 42.12 = 72.6%
Average Error: 12.39
Average Signed Error: -0.13

WEEK 6

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - Wyoming 13 0.933 Air Force 31 - Wyoming 17 7
Alabama 35 - Arkansas 17 0.86 Alabama 27 - Arkansas 14 5
Arizona 35 - Oregon State 34 0.565 Arizona 44 - Oregon State 7 -36
Arizona State 38 - Colorado 20 0.82 Arizona State 48 - Colorado 23 -7
Army 17 - Duke 31 0.822 Army 3 - Duke 44 27
Boston College 20 - Wake Forest 10 0.813 Boston College 0 - Wake Forest 3 13
Bowling Green 41 - Massachusetts 24 0.806 Bowling Green 62 - Massachusetts 38 -7
Brigham Young 34 - East Carolina 27 0.67 Brigham Young 45 - East Carolina 38 0
Central Florida 19 - Connecticut 20 0.517 Central Florida 13 - Connecticut 40 26
Clemson 35 - Georgia Tech 24 0.748 Clemson 43 - Georgia Tech 24 -8
Colorado State 21 - Boise State 41 0.847 Colorado State 10 - Boise State 41 11
Eastern Michigan 24 - Akron 28 0.686 Eastern Michigan 21 - Akron 47 22
Florida Atlantic 25 - Rice 24 0.519 Florida Atlantic 26 - Rice 27 2
Florida International 27 - Texas El Paso 14 0.773 Florida International 52 - Texas El Paso 12 -27
Florida State 35 - Miami FL 20 0.834 Florida State 29 - Miami FL 24 10
Fresno State 17 - Utah State 31 0.804 Fresno State 14 - Utah State 56 28
Georgia State 13 - Appalachian State 38 0.917 Georgia State 3 - Appalachian State 37 9
Hawaii 16 - San Diego State 17 0.548 Hawaii 14 - San Diego State 28 13
Houston 42 - Southern Methodist 20 0.908 Houston 49 - Southern Methodist 28 1
Iowa 31 - Illinois 17 0.768 Iowa 29 - Illinois 20 5
Kansas 20 - Baylor 56 0.99 Kansas 7 - Baylor 66 23
Kansas State 34 - Texas Christian 35 0.549 Kansas State 45 - Texas Christian 52 6
Louisiana Lafayette 38 - Texas State 31 0.749 Louisiana Lafayette 49 - Texas State 27 -15
Louisiana State 35 - South Carolina 21 0.821 Louisiana State 45 - South Carolina 24 -7
Marshall 35 - Southern Miss 24 0.761 Marshall 31 - Southern Miss 10 -10
Michigan 20 - Northwestern 14 0.646 Michigan 38 - Northwestern 0 -32
Miss State 34 - Troy 3 0.992 Miss State 45 - Troy 17 3
Mississippi 55 - New Mexico St 14 0.991 Mississippi 52 - New Mexico St 3 -8
Missouri 17 - Florida 24 0.68 Missouri 3 - Florida 21 11
Nebraska 20 - Wisconsin 24 0.604 Nebraska 21 - Wisconsin 23 -2
Nevada 31 - New Mexico 21 0.779 Nevada 35 - New Mexico 17 -8
Nevada Las Vegas 28 - San Jose State 27 0.6 Nevada Las Vegas 27 - San Jose State 33 7
North Texas 31 - FCS Team 24 North Texas 7 - FCS Team 66
Northern Illinois 28 - Ball State 21 0.691 Northern Illinois 59 - Ball State 40 -12
Notre Dame 34 - Navy 27 0.709 Notre Dame 41 - Navy 24 -10
Ohio 31 - Miami OH 10 0.883 Ohio 34 - Miami OH 3 -10
Ohio State 41 - Maryland 17 0.95 Ohio State 49 - Maryland 28 3
Oklahoma 45 - Texas 21 0.851 Oklahoma 17 - Texas 24 31
Oregon 42 - Washington State 28 0.781 Oregon 38 - Washington State 45 21
Penn State 27 - Indiana 21 0.644 Penn State 29 - Indiana 7 -16
Pittsburgh 31 - Virginia 17 0.842 Pittsburgh 26 - Virginia 19 7
Purdue 21 - Minnesota 24 0.565 Purdue 13 - Minnesota 41 25
Rutgers 17 - Michigan State 31 0.789 Rutgers 24 - Michigan State 31 -7
South Florida 17 - Syracuse 27 0.758 South Florida 45 - Syracuse 24 -31
Southern California 35 - Washington 20 0.813 Southern California 12 - Washington 17 20
Temple 31 - Tulane 14 0.8 Temple 49 - Tulane 10 -22
Tennessee 34 - Georgia 35 0.519 Tennessee 38 - Georgia 31 -8
Texas San Antonio 20 - Louisiana Tech 31 0.779 Texas San Antonio 31 - Louisiana Tech 34 -8
Texas Tech 45 - Iowa State 31 0.775 Texas Tech 66 - Iowa State 31 -21
Toledo 31 - Kent State 6 0.948 Toledo 38 - Kent State 7 -6
Tulsa 38 - Louisiana Monroe 24 0.802 Tulsa 34 - Louisiana Monroe 24 4
Utah 38 - California 27 0.75 Utah 30 - California 24 5
Virginia Tech 31 - NC State 27 0.577 Virginia Tech 28 - NC State 13 -11
West Virginia 35 - Oklahoma State 31 0.62 West Virginia 26 - Oklahoma State 33 11
Western Kentucky 35 - Middle Tennessee 27 0.757 Western Kentucky 58 - Middle Tennessee 28 -22
Western Michigan 23 - Central Michigan 24 0.559 Western Michigan 41 - Central Michigan 39 -3


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 45 = 81.8%
Expected Number Correct: 41.482 = 75.4%
Average Error: 12.9
Average Signed Error: 0.03

WEEK 7

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 38 - FCS Team 17 Army 21 - FCS Team 14
Ball State 38 - Georgia State 17 0.986 Ball State 19 - Georgia State 31 33
Baylor 49 - West Virginia 34 0.794 Baylor 62 - West Virginia 38 -9
Bowling Green 34 - Akron 24 0.749 Bowling Green 59 - Akron 10 -39
Brigham Young 38 - Cincinnati 27 0.759 Brigham Young 38 - Cincinnati 24 -3
Central Michigan 24 - Buffalo 17 0.681 Central Michigan 51 - Buffalo 14 -30
Clemson 27 - Boston College 3 0.948 Clemson 34 - Boston College 17 7
Colorado 31 - Arizona 41 0.685 Colorado 24 - Arizona 31 -3
Colorado State 24 - Air Force 21 0.559 Colorado State 38 - Air Force 23 -12
Connecticut 21 - South Florida 17 0.622 Connecticut 20 - South Florida 28 12
East Carolina 45 - Tulsa 31 0.805 East Carolina 30 - Tulsa 17 1
Florida Atlantic 14 - Marshall 28 0.818 Florida Atlantic 17 - Marshall 33 2
Florida State 27 - Louisville 20 0.741 Florida State 41 - Louisville 21 -13
Fresno State 24 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 0.608 Fresno State 31 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 -7
Georgia 31 - Missouri 21 0.766 Georgia 9 - Missouri 6 7
Georgia Southern 49 - New Mexico St 20 0.983 Georgia Southern 56 - New Mexico St 26 -1
Georgia Tech 31 - Pittsburgh 27 0.64 Georgia Tech 28 - Pittsburgh 31 7
Indiana 31 - Rutgers 24 0.704 Indiana 52 - Rutgers 55 10
Iowa State 31 - Texas Christian 49 0.837 Iowa State 21 - Texas Christian 45 6
Kansas 27 - Texas Tech 52 0.944 Kansas 20 - Texas Tech 30 -15
Kansas State 36 - Oklahoma 35 0.528 Kansas State 0 - Oklahoma 55 56
Kentucky 27 - Auburn 24 0.545 Kentucky 27 - Auburn 30 6
Louisiana Monroe 13 - Appalachian State 27 0.797 Louisiana Monroe 14 - Appalachian State 59 31
Louisiana State 24 - Florida 27 0.523 Louisiana State 35 - Florida 28 -10
Massachusetts 27 - Kent State 21 0.597 Massachusetts 10 - Kent State 15 11
Memphis 31 - Mississippi 35 0.579 Memphis 37 - Mississippi 24 -17
Miami FL 26 - Virginia Tech 27 0.533 Miami FL 30 - Virginia Tech 20 -11
Miami OH 17 - Northern Illinois 35 0.855 Miami OH 12 - Northern Illinois 45 15
Michigan 28 - Michigan State 13 0.784 Michigan 23 - Michigan State 27 19
Middle Tennessee 28 - Florida International 20 0.707 Middle Tennessee 42 - Florida International 34 0
Minnesota 22 - Nebraska 21 0.518 Minnesota 25 - Nebraska 48 24
Miss State 28 - Louisiana Tech 20 0.762 Miss State 45 - Louisiana Tech 20 -17
New Mexico 21 - Hawaii 20 0.584 New Mexico 28 - Hawaii 27 0
North Carolina 34 - Wake Forest 17 0.802 North Carolina 50 - Wake Forest 14 -19
North Texas 17 - Western Kentucky 45 0.962 North Texas 28 - Western Kentucky 55 -1
Northwestern 21 - Iowa 17 0.553 Northwestern 10 - Iowa 40 34
Notre Dame 34 - Southern California 31 0.588 Notre Dame 41 - Southern California 31 -7
Ohio 27 - Western Michigan 17 0.756 Ohio 14 - Western Michigan 49 45
Ohio State 31 - Penn State 17 0.786 Ohio State 38 - Penn State 10 -14
Old Dominion 24 - Charlotte 10 0.776 Old Dominion 37 - Charlotte 34 11
San Jose State 27 - San Diego State 24 0.527 San Jose State 7 - San Diego State 30 26
South Alabama 27 - Arkansas State 31 0.576 South Alabama 31 - Arkansas State 49 14
South Carolina 21 - Vanderbilt 17 0.641 South Carolina 19 - Vanderbilt 10 -5
Southern Miss 27 - Texas San Antonio 24 0.549 Southern Miss 32 - Texas San Antonio 10 -19
Stanford 35 - UCLA 27 0.692 Stanford 56 - UCLA 35 -13
Temple 31 - Central Florida 10 0.822 Temple 30 - Central Florida 16 7
Texas AM 30 - Alabama 31 0.567 Texas AM 23 - Alabama 41 17
Toledo 45 - Eastern Michigan 13 0.991 Toledo 63 - Eastern Michigan 20 -11
Troy 34 - Idaho 27 0.769 Troy 16 - Idaho 19 10
Tulane 20 - Houston 42 0.89 Tulane 7 - Houston 42 13
Utah 34 - Arizona State 27 0.672 Utah 34 - Arizona State 18 -9
Utah State 24 - Boise State 34 0.722 Utah State 52 - Boise State 26 -36
Virginia 31 - Syracuse 27 0.628 Virginia 44 - Syracuse 38 -2
Washington 35 - Oregon 24 0.736 Washington 20 - Oregon 26 17
Washington State 38 - Oregon State 27 0.752 Washington State 52 - Oregon State 31 -10
Wisconsin 35 - Purdue 13 0.926 Wisconsin 24 - Purdue 7 5
Wyoming 17 - Nevada 28 0.768 Wyoming 28 - Nevada 21 -18


Number of FBS Games: 56
Number Correct: 36 = 64.2%
Expected Number Correct: 40.392 = 72.1%
Average Error: 14.23
Average Signed Error: 1.69

WEEK 8

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - Fresno State 21 0.777 Air Force 42 - Fresno State 14 -15
Alabama 38 - Tennessee 27 0.806 Alabama 19 - Tennessee 14 6
Appalachian State 34 - Georgia Southern 21 0.743 Appalachian State 31 - Georgia Southern 13 -5
Arizona 39 - Washington State 38 0.527 Arizona 42 - Washington State 45 4
Arkansas 28 - Auburn 21 0.723 Arkansas 54 - Auburn 46 -1
Arkansas State 35 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 0.722 Arkansas State 37 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 -2
Ball State 21 - Central Michigan 31 0.742 Ball State 21 - Central Michigan 23 -8
Baylor 59 - Iowa State 27 0.985 Baylor 45 - Iowa State 27 14
Boise State 42 - Wyoming 10 0.944 Boise State 34 - Wyoming 14 12
Brigham Young 49 - FCS Team 10 Brigham Young 70 - FCS Team 6
Buffalo 17 - Ohio 20 0.512 Buffalo 41 - Ohio 17 -27
Central Florida 17 - Houston 35 0.834 Central Florida 10 - Houston 59 31
Charlotte 13 - Southern Miss 31 0.822 Charlotte 10 - Southern Miss 44 16
Cincinnati 31 - Connecticut 24 0.721 Cincinnati 37 - Connecticut 13 -17
East Carolina 31 - Temple 24 0.641 East Carolina 14 - Temple 24 17
Florida International 28 - Old Dominion 14 0.808 Florida International 41 - Old Dominion 12 -15
Georgia Tech 31 - Florida State 35 0.604 Georgia Tech 22 - Florida State 16 -10
Idaho 26 - Louisiana Monroe 27 0.527 Idaho 27 - Louisiana Monroe 13 -15
Illinois 17 - Wisconsin 24 0.645 Illinois 13 - Wisconsin 24 4
Kent State 20 - Bowling Green 34 0.773 Kent State 0 - Bowling Green 48 34
Louisiana State 42 - Western Kentucky 28 0.788 Louisiana State 48 - Western Kentucky 20 -14
Louisiana Tech 31 - Middle Tennessee 27 0.652 Louisiana Tech 45 - Middle Tennessee 16 -25
Louisville 20 - Boston College 13 0.75 Louisville 17 - Boston College 14 4
Marshall 38 - North Texas 13 0.955 Marshall 30 - North Texas 13 8
Maryland 20 - Penn State 24 0.607 Maryland 30 - Penn State 31 -3
Massachusetts 17 - Toledo 34 0.898 Massachusetts 35 - Toledo 51 -1
Miami FL 24 - Clemson 35 0.751 Miami FL 0 - Clemson 58 47
Michigan State 41 - Indiana 24 0.862 Michigan State 52 - Indiana 26 -9
Miss State 31 - Kentucky 17 0.814 Miss State 42 - Kentucky 16 -12
Mississippi 33 - Texas AM 34 0.525 Mississippi 23 - Texas AM 3 -21
Navy 41 - Tulane 13 0.96 Navy 31 - Tulane 14 11
Nebraska 27 - Northwestern 20 0.687 Nebraska 28 - Northwestern 30 9
Nevada 24 - Hawaii 14 0.751 Nevada 30 - Hawaii 20 0
New Mexico St 24 - Troy 28 0.707 New Mexico St 7 - Troy 52 41
North Carolina 45 - Virginia 27 0.819 North Carolina 26 - Virginia 13 5
Northern Illinois 48 - Eastern Michigan 21 0.964 Northern Illinois 49 - Eastern Michigan 21 -1
Oklahoma 48 - Texas Tech 34 0.748 Oklahoma 63 - Texas Tech 27 -22
Oklahoma State 45 - Kansas 14 0.958 Oklahoma State 58 - Kansas 10 -17
Oregon State 32 - Colorado 31 0.555 Oregon State 13 - Colorado 17 5
Rice 28 - Army 27 0.525 Rice 38 - Army 31 -6
Rutgers 24 - Ohio State 41 0.83 Rutgers 7 - Ohio State 49 25
San Diego State 14 - Utah State 28 0.777 San Diego State 48 - Utah State 14 -48
San Jose State 31 - New Mexico 24 0.709 San Jose State 31 - New Mexico 21 -3
South Florida 34 - Southern Methodist 21 0.753 South Florida 38 - Southern Methodist 14 -11
Southern California 32 - Utah 31 0.525 Southern California 42 - Utah 24 -17
Stanford 31 - Washington 21 0.73 Stanford 31 - Washington 14 -7
Syracuse 24 - Pittsburgh 31 0.737 Syracuse 20 - Pittsburgh 23 -4
Texas 34 - Kansas State 28 0.565 Texas 23 - Kansas State 9 -8
Texas El Paso 20 - Florida Atlantic 27 0.686 Texas El Paso 27 - Florida Atlantic 17 -17
Texas State 33 - South Alabama 34 0.523 Texas State 36 - South Alabama 18 -19
Tulsa 28 - Memphis 38 0.799 Tulsa 42 - Memphis 66 14
UCLA 38 - California 35 0.577 UCLA 40 - California 24 -13
Vanderbilt 7 - Missouri 13 0.688 Vanderbilt 10 - Missouri 3 -13
Virginia Tech 23 - Duke 24 0.517 Virginia Tech 43 - Duke 45 1
Wake Forest 20 - NC State 24 0.599 Wake Forest 17 - NC State 35 14
Western Michigan 41 - Miami OH 13 0.924 Western Michigan 35 - Miami OH 13 6


Number of FBS Games: 55
Number Correct: 43 = 78.1%
Expected Number Correct: 40.071 = 72.8%
Average Error: 13.34
Average Signed Error: -1.42

WEEK 9

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 17 - Central Michigan 24 0.697 Akron 6 - Central Michigan 14 1
Appalachian State 31 - Troy 6 0.948 Appalachian State 44 - Troy 41 22
Arizona State 38 - Oregon 35 0.546 Arizona State 55 - Oregon 61 9
Arkansas 49 - FCS Team 10 Arkansas 63 - FCS Team 28
Arkansas State 35 - Georgia State 20 0.819 Arkansas State 48 - Georgia State 34 1
Auburn 31 - Mississippi 34 0.578 Auburn 19 - Mississippi 27 5
Ball State 31 - Massachusetts 24 0.642 Ball State 20 - Massachusetts 10 -3
Boston College 21 - Virginia Tech 20 0.522 Boston College 10 - Virginia Tech 26 17
California 31 - Southern California 38 0.719 California 21 - Southern California 27 -1
Charlotte 6 - Marshall 31 0.928 Charlotte 10 - Marshall 34 -1
Cincinnati 38 - Central Florida 20 0.832 Cincinnati 52 - Central Florida 7 -27
Colorado State 20 - San Diego State 24 0.546 Colorado State 17 - San Diego State 41 20
Connecticut 21 - East Carolina 27 0.678 Connecticut 31 - East Carolina 13 -24
Duke 35 - Miami FL 24 0.755 Duke 27 - Miami FL 30 14
Eastern Michigan 24 - Western Michigan 42 0.821 Eastern Michigan 28 - Western Michigan 58 12
Florida 31 - Georgia 27 0.605 Florida 27 - Georgia 3 -20
Florida Atlantic 14 - Florida International 21 0.69 Florida Atlantic 31 - Florida International 17 -21
Florida State 38 - Syracuse 21 0.876 Florida State 45 - Syracuse 21 -7
Georgia Southern 42 - Texas State 24 0.84 Georgia Southern 37 - Texas State 13 -6
Hawaii 17 - Air Force 24 0.737 Hawaii 7 - Air Force 58 44
Houston 31 - Vanderbilt 14 0.884 Houston 34 - Vanderbilt 0 -17
Iowa 38 - Maryland 20 0.864 Iowa 31 - Maryland 14 1
Iowa State 24 - Texas 31 0.603 Iowa State 24 - Texas 0 -31
Kansas 13 - Oklahoma 49 0.954 Kansas 7 - Oklahoma 62 19
Kentucky 24 - Tennessee 35 0.784 Kentucky 21 - Tennessee 52 20
Louisiana Lafayette 31 - Louisiana Monroe 21 0.747 Louisiana Lafayette 30 - Louisiana Monroe 24 4
Memphis 48 - Tulane 17 0.986 Memphis 41 - Tulane 13 3
Miami OH 14 - Buffalo 27 0.759 Miami OH 24 - Buffalo 29 -8
Minnesota 10 - Michigan 28 0.791 Minnesota 26 - Michigan 29 -15
Navy 28 - South Florida 20 0.728 Navy 29 - South Florida 17 -4
NC State 20 - Clemson 38 0.814 NC State 41 - Clemson 56 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 17 - Boise State 38 0.821 Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Boise State 55 7
New Mexico St 24 - Idaho 35 0.766 New Mexico St 55 - Idaho 48 -18
North Texas 20 - Texas San Antonio 24 0.614 North Texas 30 - Texas San Antonio 23 -11
Old Dominion 17 - Western Kentucky 42 0.936 Old Dominion 30 - Western Kentucky 55 0
Penn State 24 - Illinois 17 0.701 Penn State 39 - Illinois 0 -32
Pittsburgh 27 - North Carolina 28 0.552 Pittsburgh 19 - North Carolina 26 6
Purdue 24 - Nebraska 35 0.763 Purdue 55 - Nebraska 45 -21
Rice 24 - Louisiana Tech 34 0.747 Rice 17 - Louisiana Tech 42 15
Southern Methodist 33 - Tulsa 34 0.538 Southern Methodist 31 - Tulsa 40 8
Southern Miss 35 - Texas El Paso 14 0.86 Southern Miss 34 - Texas El Paso 13 0
Temple 21 - Notre Dame 34 0.775 Temple 20 - Notre Dame 24 -9
Texas AM 35 - South Carolina 21 0.78 Texas AM 35 - South Carolina 28 7
Texas Christian 45 - West Virginia 38 0.658 Texas Christian 40 - West Virginia 10 -23
Texas Tech 41 - Oklahoma State 48 0.64 Texas Tech 53 - Oklahoma State 70 10
UCLA 42 - Colorado 21 0.896 UCLA 35 - Colorado 31 17
Utah 41 - Oregon State 14 0.894 Utah 27 - Oregon State 12 12
Utah State 34 - Wyoming 13 0.803 Utah State 58 - Wyoming 27 -10
Virginia 28 - Georgia Tech 38 0.728 Virginia 27 - Georgia Tech 21 -16
Wake Forest 14 - Louisville 27 0.772 Wake Forest 19 - Louisville 20 -12
Washington 31 - Arizona 24 0.718 Washington 49 - Arizona 3 -39
Washington State 34 - Stanford 45 0.778 Washington State 28 - Stanford 30 -9
Wisconsin 34 - Rutgers 14 0.883 Wisconsin 48 - Rutgers 10 -18


Number of FBS Games: 52
Number Correct: 42 = 80.7%
Expected Number Correct: 39.316 = 75.6%
Average Error: 13.07
Average Signed Error: -2.54

WEEK 10

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 34 - Army 20 0.782 Air Force 20 - Army 3 -3
Alabama 34 - Louisiana State 24 0.727 Alabama 30 - Louisiana State 16 -4
Appalachian State 38 - Arkansas State 20 0.874 Appalachian State 27 - Arkansas State 40 31
Boston College 20 - NC State 21 0.546 Boston College 8 - NC State 24 15
Bowling Green 41 - Ohio 17 0.833 Bowling Green 62 - Ohio 24 -14
Clemson 38 - Florida State 27 0.764 Clemson 23 - Florida State 13 1
Colorado 20 - Stanford 41 0.863 Colorado 10 - Stanford 42 11
East Carolina 28 - South Florida 24 0.56 East Carolina 17 - South Florida 22 9
Florida 27 - Vanderbilt 3 0.954 Florida 9 - Vanderbilt 7 22
Florida International 27 - Charlotte 7 0.84 Florida International 48 - Charlotte 31 3
Fresno State 24 - Nevada 28 0.575 Fresno State 16 - Nevada 30 10
Georgia 38 - Kentucky 24 0.802 Georgia 27 - Kentucky 3 -10
Georgia State 24 - Louisiana Lafayette 28 0.554 Georgia State 21 - Louisiana Lafayette 23 -2
Houston 38 - Cincinnati 28 0.735 Houston 33 - Cincinnati 30 7
Indiana 27 - Iowa 41 0.812 Indiana 27 - Iowa 35 -6
Kansas State 34 - Baylor 52 0.821 Kansas State 24 - Baylor 31 -11
Kent State 14 - Buffalo 20 0.602 Kent State 17 - Buffalo 18 -5
Louisiana Tech 38 - North Texas 14 0.94 Louisiana Tech 56 - North Texas 13 -19
Louisville 34 - Syracuse 24 0.766 Louisville 41 - Syracuse 17 -14
Maryland 17 - Wisconsin 28 0.758 Maryland 24 - Wisconsin 31 -4
Massachusetts 21 - Akron 20 0.513 Massachusetts 13 - Akron 17 5
Memphis 35 - Navy 31 0.716 Memphis 20 - Navy 45 29
Miami FL 34 - Virginia 27 0.644 Miami FL 27 - Virginia 21 1
Miami OH 31 - Eastern Michigan 27 0.587 Miami OH 28 - Eastern Michigan 13 -11
Michigan 38 - Rutgers 14 0.896 Michigan 46 - Rutgers 19 -3
Middle Tennessee 21 - Marshall 27 0.601 Middle Tennessee 27 - Marshall 24 -9
Mississippi 31 - Arkansas 24 0.693 Mississippi 52 - Arkansas 53 8
Missouri 13 - Miss State 21 0.752 Missouri 13 - Miss State 31 10
Nebraska 31 - Michigan State 35 0.696 Nebraska 39 - Michigan State 38 -5
Nevada Las Vegas 27 - Hawaii 17 0.726 Nevada Las Vegas 41 - Hawaii 21 -10
New Mexico 17 - Utah State 38 0.827 New Mexico 14 - Utah State 13 -22
North Carolina 35 - Duke 27 0.731 North Carolina 66 - Duke 31 -27
Northwestern 17 - Penn State 20 0.522 Northwestern 23 - Penn State 21 -5
Ohio State 38 - Minnesota 14 0.878 Ohio State 28 - Minnesota 14 10
Oklahoma 45 - Iowa State 21 0.83 Oklahoma 52 - Iowa State 16 -12
Oklahoma State 44 - Texas Christian 45 0.527 Oklahoma State 49 - Texas Christian 29 -21
Oregon 42 - California 38 0.649 Oregon 44 - California 28 -12
Oregon State 24 - UCLA 35 0.767 Oregon State 0 - UCLA 41 30
Pittsburgh 24 - Notre Dame 31 0.746 Pittsburgh 30 - Notre Dame 42 5
Purdue 28 - Illinois 27 0.558 Purdue 14 - Illinois 48 35
San Jose State 17 - Brigham Young 34 0.87 San Jose State 16 - Brigham Young 17 -16
South Alabama 31 - Idaho 24 0.605 South Alabama 52 - Idaho 45 0
Southern California 45 - Arizona 24 0.845 Southern California 38 - Arizona 30 13
Southern Methodist 20 - Temple 34 0.783 Southern Methodist 40 - Temple 60 6
Tennessee 41 - South Carolina 24 0.882 Tennessee 27 - South Carolina 24 14
Texas 34 - Kansas 13 0.844 Texas 59 - Kansas 20 -18
Texas AM 38 - Auburn 28 0.745 Texas AM 10 - Auburn 26 26
Texas El Paso 21 - Rice 28 0.678 Texas El Paso 24 - Rice 21 -10
Texas San Antonio 28 - Old Dominion 17 0.753 Texas San Antonio 31 - Old Dominion 36 16
Texas State 41 - New Mexico St 28 0.777 Texas State 21 - New Mexico St 31 23
Toledo 34 - Northern Illinois 24 0.771 Toledo 27 - Northern Illinois 32 15
Troy 28 - Louisiana Monroe 14 0.78 Troy 51 - Louisiana Monroe 14 -23
Tulane 17 - Connecticut 24 0.72 Tulane 3 - Connecticut 7 -3
Tulsa 38 - Central Florida 24 0.78 Tulsa 45 - Central Florida 30 -1
Washington 24 - Utah 21 0.572 Washington 23 - Utah 34 14
Washington State 41 - Arizona State 38 0.556 Washington State 38 - Arizona State 24 -11
West Virginia 45 - Texas Tech 41 0.635 West Virginia 31 - Texas Tech 26 -1
Western Kentucky 38 - Florida Atlantic 17 0.897 Western Kentucky 35 - Florida Atlantic 19 5
Western Michigan 34 - Ball State 21 0.78 Western Michigan 54 - Ball State 7 -34
Wyoming 21 - Colorado State 24 0.611 Wyoming 7 - Colorado State 26 16


Number of FBS Games: 60
Number Correct: 43 = 71.6%
Expected Number Correct: 43.851 = 73%
Average Error: 12.26
Average Signed Error: 0.73

WEEK 11

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 27 - Utah State 24 0.546 Air Force 35 - Utah State 28 -4
Arizona 28 - Utah 41 0.742 Arizona 37 - Utah 30 -20
Arizona State 24 - Washington 31 0.63 Arizona State 27 - Washington 17 -17
Army 21 - Tulane 17 0.578 Army 31 - Tulane 34 7
Auburn 28 - Georgia 27 0.567 Auburn 13 - Georgia 20 8
Baylor 44 - Oklahoma 45 0.508 Baylor 34 - Oklahoma 44 9
Boise State 41 - New Mexico 13 0.898 Boise State 24 - New Mexico 31 35
Buffalo 21 - Northern Illinois 28 0.722 Buffalo 30 - Northern Illinois 41 4
California 38 - Oregon State 14 0.891 California 54 - Oregon State 24 -6
Central Michigan 21 - Toledo 24 0.532 Central Michigan 23 - Toledo 28 2
Charlotte 17 - Texas San Antonio 24 0.676 Charlotte 27 - Texas San Antonio 30 -4
Cincinnati 45 - Tulsa 31 0.838 Cincinnati 49 - Tulsa 38 3
Colorado 20 - Southern California 38 0.877 Colorado 24 - Southern California 27 -15
Colorado State 27 - Nevada Las Vegas 20 0.722 Colorado State 49 - Nevada Las Vegas 35 -7
Duke 30 - Pittsburgh 31 0.507 Duke 13 - Pittsburgh 31 17
Eastern Michigan 28 - Massachusetts 34 0.696 Eastern Michigan 17 - Massachusetts 28 5
Florida Atlantic 17 - Middle Tennessee 24 0.679 Florida Atlantic 17 - Middle Tennessee 24 0
Florida State 34 - NC State 24 0.744 Florida State 34 - NC State 17 -7
Georgia Tech 35 - Virginia Tech 31 0.652 Georgia Tech 21 - Virginia Tech 23 6
Hawaii 24 - Fresno State 21 0.534 Hawaii 14 - Fresno State 42 31
Houston 42 - Memphis 34 0.749 Houston 35 - Memphis 34 7
Idaho 20 - Appalachian State 38 0.889 Idaho 20 - Appalachian State 47 9
Illinois 17 - Ohio State 31 0.767 Illinois 3 - Ohio State 28 11
Indiana 24 - Michigan 38 0.802 Indiana 41 - Michigan 48 -7
Iowa 34 - Minnesota 14 0.873 Iowa 40 - Minnesota 35 15
Iowa State 31 - Oklahoma State 45 0.789 Iowa State 31 - Oklahoma State 35 -10
Louisiana Monroe 20 - Arkansas State 35 0.856 Louisiana Monroe 21 - Arkansas State 59 23
Louisiana State 41 - Arkansas 31 0.782 Louisiana State 14 - Arkansas 31 27
Louisville 31 - Virginia 24 0.735 Louisville 38 - Virginia 31 0
Marshall 24 - Florida International 14 0.762 Marshall 52 - Florida International 0 -42
Miami OH 10 - Akron 17 0.7 Miami OH 28 - Akron 37 2
Michigan State 38 - Maryland 24 0.818 Michigan State 24 - Maryland 7 -3
Miss State 21 - Alabama 24 0.606 Miss State 6 - Alabama 31 22
Missouri 13 - Brigham Young 20 0.745 Missouri 20 - Brigham Young 16 -11
Navy 49 - Southern Methodist 20 0.988 Navy 55 - Southern Methodist 14 -12
Nevada 20 - San Jose State 21 0.523 Nevada 37 - San Jose State 34 -4
North Carolina 45 - Miami FL 24 0.863 North Carolina 59 - Miami FL 21 -17
Northwestern 34 - Purdue 17 0.762 Northwestern 21 - Purdue 14 10
Notre Dame 42 - Wake Forest 13 0.991 Notre Dame 28 - Wake Forest 7 8
Ohio 20 - Kent State 13 0.703 Ohio 27 - Kent State 0 -20
Old Dominion 24 - Texas El Paso 20 0.617 Old Dominion 31 - Texas El Paso 21 -6
Rice 20 - Southern Miss 28 0.773 Rice 10 - Southern Miss 65 47
Rutgers 34 - Nebraska 41 0.737 Rutgers 14 - Nebraska 31 10
San Diego State 31 - Wyoming 10 0.842 San Diego State 38 - Wyoming 3 -14
South Alabama 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 27 0.53 South Alabama 32 - Louisiana Lafayette 25 -6
South Carolina 17 - Florida 31 0.764 South Carolina 14 - Florida 24 -4
South Florida 24 - Temple 27 0.523 South Florida 44 - Temple 23 -24
Stanford 48 - Oregon 34 0.77 Stanford 36 - Oregon 38 16
Syracuse 24 - Clemson 49 0.952 Syracuse 27 - Clemson 37 -15
Tennessee 49 - North Texas 10 0.992 Tennessee 24 - North Texas 0 15
Texas AM 48 - FCS Team 10 Texas AM 41 - FCS Team 17
Texas Christian 59 - Kansas 17 0.989 Texas Christian 23 - Kansas 17 36
Texas State 23 - Georgia State 24 0.511 Texas State 19 - Georgia State 41 21
Texas Tech 42 - Kansas State 35 0.658 Texas Tech 59 - Kansas State 44 -8
Troy 23 - Georgia Southern 24 0.501 Troy 10 - Georgia Southern 45 34
UCLA 41 - Washington State 35 0.683 UCLA 27 - Washington State 31 10
Vanderbilt 20 - Kentucky 13 0.705 Vanderbilt 21 - Kentucky 17 3
West Virginia 31 - Texas 21 0.686 West Virginia 38 - Texas 20 -8
Western Michigan 38 - Bowling Green 42 0.58 Western Michigan 27 - Bowling Green 41 10


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 45 = 77.5%
Expected Number Correct: 42.055 = 72.5%
Average Error: 13
Average Signed Error: 2.96

WEEK 12

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 20 - Buffalo 17 0.553 Akron 42 - Buffalo 21 -18
Alabama 55 - FCS Team 0 Alabama 56 - FCS Team 6
Arizona State 41 - Arizona 31 0.69 Arizona State 52 - Arizona 37 -5
Arkansas 31 - Miss State 28 0.621 Arkansas 50 - Miss State 51 4
Army 24 - Rutgers 31 0.637 Army 21 - Rutgers 31 3
Auburn 45 - Idaho 17 0.99 Auburn 56 - Idaho 34 6
Boise State 28 - Air Force 24 0.596 Boise State 30 - Air Force 37 11
Boston College 7 - Notre Dame 28 0.985 Boston College 16 - Notre Dame 19 -18
Bowling Green 41 - Toledo 31 0.749 Bowling Green 28 - Toledo 44 26
Brigham Young 38 - Fresno State 13 0.936 Brigham Young 52 - Fresno State 10 -17
Central Florida 17 - East Carolina 35 0.885 Central Florida 7 - East Carolina 44 19
Clemson 41 - Wake Forest 10 0.98 Clemson 33 - Wake Forest 13 11
Connecticut 14 - Houston 28 0.838 Connecticut 20 - Houston 17 -17
Florida 34 - Florida Atlantic 0 0.987 Florida 20 - Florida Atlantic 14 28
Florida International 24 - Western Kentucky 38 0.78 Florida International 7 - Western Kentucky 63 42
Florida State 52 - FCS Team 6 Florida State 52 - FCS Team 13
Georgia 28 - Georgia Southern 17 0.707 Georgia 23 - Georgia Southern 17 5
Georgia State 28 - South Alabama 24 0.628 Georgia State 24 - South Alabama 10 -10
Hawaii 14 - San Jose State 28 0.766 Hawaii 23 - San Jose State 42 5
Iowa 45 - Purdue 21 0.911 Iowa 40 - Purdue 20 4
Kansas 17 - West Virginia 41 0.855 Kansas 0 - West Virginia 49 25
Kansas State 31 - Iowa State 28 0.523 Kansas State 38 - Iowa State 35 0
Kent State 6 - Central Michigan 21 0.831 Kent State 14 - Central Michigan 27 -2
Kentucky 38 - Charlotte 13 0.969 Kentucky 58 - Charlotte 10 -23
Louisiana Lafayette 34 - New Mexico St 24 0.766 Louisiana Lafayette 34 - New Mexico St 37 13
Maryland 35 - Indiana 34 0.569 Maryland 28 - Indiana 47 20
Massachusetts 27 - Miami OH 17 0.748 Massachusetts 13 - Miami OH 20 17
Miami FL 28 - Georgia Tech 34 0.568 Miami FL 38 - Georgia Tech 21 -23
Middle Tennessee 34 - North Texas 14 0.843 Middle Tennessee 41 - North Texas 7 -14
Minnesota 24 - Illinois 20 0.556 Minnesota 32 - Illinois 23 -5
Mississippi 35 - Louisiana State 31 0.594 Mississippi 38 - Louisiana State 17 -17
Missouri 14 - Tennessee 24 0.763 Missouri 8 - Tennessee 19 1
NC State 41 - Syracuse 31 0.776 NC State 42 - Syracuse 29 -3
Nevada Las Vegas 17 - San Diego State 31 0.775 Nevada Las Vegas 14 - San Diego State 52 24
New Mexico 20 - Colorado State 21 0.521 New Mexico 21 - Colorado State 26 4
Northern Illinois 35 - Western Michigan 34 0.524 Northern Illinois 27 - Western Michigan 19 -7
Ohio 27 - Ball State 17 0.713 Ohio 48 - Ball State 31 -7
Ohio State 34 - Michigan State 21 0.796 Ohio State 14 - Michigan State 17 16
Oklahoma 48 - Texas Christian 31 0.768 Oklahoma 30 - Texas Christian 29 16
Oklahoma State 47 - Baylor 48 0.513 Oklahoma State 35 - Baylor 45 9
Oregon 39 - Southern California 38 0.505 Oregon 48 - Southern California 28 -19
Oregon State 13 - Washington 28 0.811 Oregon State 7 - Washington 52 30
Penn State 21 - Michigan 24 0.563 Penn State 16 - Michigan 28 9
Pittsburgh 28 - Louisville 21 0.751 Pittsburgh 45 - Louisville 34 -4
South Carolina 45 - FCS Team 14 South Carolina 22 - FCS Team 23
South Florida 34 - Cincinnati 28 0.632 South Florida 65 - Cincinnati 27 -32
Southern Methodist 34 - Tulane 28 0.677 Southern Methodist 49 - Tulane 21 -22
Southern Miss 38 - Old Dominion 13 0.928 Southern Miss 56 - Old Dominion 31 0
Stanford 41 - California 28 0.786 Stanford 35 - California 22 0
Temple 34 - Memphis 38 0.614 Temple 31 - Memphis 12 -23
Texas El Paso 13 - Louisiana Tech 35 0.894 Texas El Paso 15 - Louisiana Tech 17 -20
Texas San Antonio 28 - Rice 21 0.688 Texas San Antonio 34 - Rice 24 -3
Texas State 28 - Louisiana Monroe 21 0.685 Texas State 16 - Louisiana Monroe 3 -6
Tulsa 27 - Navy 45 0.89 Tulsa 21 - Navy 44 5
Utah 34 - UCLA 28 0.596 Utah 9 - UCLA 17 14
Utah State 34 - Nevada 20 0.769 Utah State 31 - Nevada 27 10
Vanderbilt 14 - Texas AM 20 0.643 Vanderbilt 0 - Texas AM 25 19
Virginia 34 - Duke 31 0.524 Virginia 42 - Duke 34 -5
Virginia Tech 31 - North Carolina 42 0.786 Virginia Tech 27 - North Carolina 30 -8
Washington State 41 - Colorado 24 0.854 Washington State 27 - Colorado 3 -7
Wisconsin 21 - Northwestern 10 0.759 Wisconsin 7 - Northwestern 13 17


Number of FBS Games: 58
Number Correct: 46 = 79.3%
Expected Number Correct: 42.565 = 73.3%
Average Error: 12.89
Average Signed Error: 1.34

WEEK 13

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 20 - Kent State 6 0.791 Akron 20 - Kent State 0 -6
Appalachian State 38 - Louisiana Lafayette 10 0.958 Appalachian State 28 - Louisiana Lafayette 7 7
Arkansas 34 - Missouri 17 0.928 Arkansas 28 - Missouri 3 -8
Auburn 20 - Alabama 34 0.854 Auburn 13 - Alabama 29 2
Ball State 24 - Bowling Green 45 0.85 Ball State 10 - Bowling Green 48 17
Buffalo 27 - Massachusetts 17 0.719 Buffalo 26 - Massachusetts 31 15
California 38 - Arizona State 35 0.579 California 48 - Arizona State 46 1
Central Florida 13 - South Florida 42 0.962 Central Florida 3 - South Florida 44 12
Central Michigan 42 - Eastern Michigan 13 0.986 Central Michigan 35 - Eastern Michigan 28 22
East Carolina 35 - Cincinnati 31 0.588 East Carolina 16 - Cincinnati 19 7
Florida 22 - Florida State 21 0.526 Florida 2 - Florida State 27 26
Fresno State 21 - Colorado State 31 0.733 Fresno State 31 - Colorado State 34 -7
Georgia Southern 35 - South Alabama 13 0.856 Georgia Southern 55 - South Alabama 17 -16
Georgia State 21 - Troy 20 0.512 Georgia State 31 - Troy 21 -9
Georgia Tech 23 - Georgia 24 0.534 Georgia Tech 7 - Georgia 13 5
Hawaii 24 - Louisiana Monroe 17 0.615 Hawaii 28 - Louisiana Monroe 26 5
Houston 28 - Navy 31 0.576 Houston 52 - Navy 31 -24
Idaho 34 - Texas State 27 0.691 Idaho 38 - Texas State 31 0
Illinois 14 - Northwestern 20 0.634 Illinois 14 - Northwestern 24 4
Kansas 24 - Kansas State 38 0.787 Kansas 14 - Kansas State 45 17
Kentucky 28 - Louisville 34 0.679 Kentucky 24 - Louisville 38 8
Louisiana State 31 - Texas AM 27 0.605 Louisiana State 19 - Texas AM 7 -8
Louisiana Tech 28 - Southern Miss 27 0.529 Louisiana Tech 24 - Southern Miss 58 35
Memphis 49 - Southern Methodist 28 0.92 Memphis 63 - Southern Methodist 0 -42
Michigan 25 - Ohio State 24 0.515 Michigan 13 - Ohio State 42 30
Michigan State 27 - Penn State 17 0.734 Michigan State 55 - Penn State 16 -29
Minnesota 20 - Wisconsin 24 0.621 Minnesota 21 - Wisconsin 31 6
Miss State 35 - Mississippi 34 0.525 Miss State 27 - Mississippi 38 12
NC State 31 - North Carolina 41 0.742 NC State 34 - North Carolina 45 1
Nebraska 34 - Iowa 38 0.667 Nebraska 20 - Iowa 28 4
New Mexico 14 - Air Force 27 0.752 New Mexico 47 - Air Force 35 -25
New Mexico St 28 - Arkansas State 45 0.806 New Mexico St 28 - Arkansas State 52 7
North Texas 18 - Texas El Paso 17 0.538 North Texas 17 - Texas El Paso 20 4
Northern Illinois 35 - Ohio 21 0.788 Northern Illinois 21 - Ohio 26 19
Oklahoma State 38 - Oklahoma 42 0.631 Oklahoma State 23 - Oklahoma 58 31
Old Dominion 17 - Florida Atlantic 21 0.617 Old Dominion 31 - Florida Atlantic 33 -2
Oregon 55 - Oregon State 21 0.958 Oregon 52 - Oregon State 42 24
Pittsburgh 35 - Miami FL 24 0.76 Pittsburgh 24 - Miami FL 29 16
Purdue 38 - Indiana 42 0.618 Purdue 36 - Indiana 54 14
Rice 28 - Charlotte 20 0.722 Rice 27 - Charlotte 7 -12
Rutgers 28 - Maryland 31 0.535 Rutgers 41 - Maryland 46 2
San Diego State 31 - Nevada 13 0.816 San Diego State 31 - Nevada 14 1
San Jose State 24 - Boise State 31 0.662 San Jose State 23 - Boise State 40 10
South Carolina 21 - Clemson 41 0.843 South Carolina 32 - Clemson 37 -15
Southern California 31 - UCLA 28 0.589 Southern California 40 - UCLA 21 -16
Stanford 34 - Notre Dame 31 0.596 Stanford 38 - Notre Dame 36 1
Syracuse 24 - Boston College 21 0.557 Syracuse 20 - Boston College 17 0
Temple 24 - Connecticut 13 0.742 Temple 27 - Connecticut 3 -13
Tennessee 27 - Vanderbilt 7 0.895 Tennessee 53 - Vanderbilt 28 -5
Texas 41 - Texas Tech 42 0.552 Texas 45 - Texas Tech 48 2
Texas Christian 41 - Baylor 45 0.579 Texas Christian 28 - Baylor 21 -11
Texas San Antonio 20 - Middle Tennessee 28 0.751 Texas San Antonio 7 - Middle Tennessee 42 27
Toledo 34 - Western Michigan 24 0.733 Toledo 30 - Western Michigan 35 15
Tulane 28 - Tulsa 38 0.728 Tulane 34 - Tulsa 45 1
Utah 34 - Colorado 14 0.806 Utah 20 - Colorado 14 14
Utah State 24 - Brigham Young 27 0.565 Utah State 28 - Brigham Young 51 20
Virginia 31 - Virginia Tech 34 0.586 Virginia 20 - Virginia Tech 23 0
Wake Forest 24 - Duke 27 0.529 Wake Forest 21 - Duke 27 3
Washington 28 - Washington State 27 0.573 Washington 45 - Washington State 10 -34
West Virginia 38 - Iowa State 24 0.773 West Virginia 30 - Iowa State 6 -10
Western Kentucky 31 - Marshall 24 0.686 Western Kentucky 49 - Marshall 28 -14
Wyoming 25 - Nevada Las Vegas 24 0.523 Wyoming 35 - Nevada Las Vegas 28 -6


Number of FBS Games: 62
Number Correct: 49 = 79%
Expected Number Correct: 43.025 = 69.3%
Average Error: 12.24
Average Signed Error: 2.17

WEEK 14

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Air Force 21 - San Diego State 24 0.535 Air Force 24 - San Diego State 27 0
Alabama 27 - Florida 13 0.786 Alabama 29 - Florida 15 0
Arkansas State 41 - Texas State 17 0.917 Arkansas State 55 - Texas State 17 -14
Baylor 48 - Texas 27 0.842 Baylor 17 - Texas 23 27
Clemson 39 - North Carolina 38 0.504 Clemson 45 - North Carolina 37 -7
Georgia Southern 31 - Georgia State 13 0.84 Georgia Southern 7 - Georgia State 34 45
Houston 31 - Temple 24 0.696 Houston 24 - Temple 13 -4
Iowa 27 - Michigan State 31 0.596 Iowa 13 - Michigan State 16 -1
Kansas State 27 - West Virginia 35 0.723 Kansas State 24 - West Virginia 23 -9
Louisiana Lafayette 20 - Troy 21 0.565 Louisiana Lafayette 17 - Troy 41 23
Louisiana Monroe 27 - New Mexico St 31 0.59 Louisiana Monroe 42 - New Mexico St 35 -11
Northern Illinois 31 - Bowling Green 41 0.727 Northern Illinois 14 - Bowling Green 34 10
South Alabama 13 - Appalachian State 34 0.845 South Alabama 27 - Appalachian State 34 -14
Southern California 31 - Stanford 35 0.603 Southern California 22 - Stanford 41 15
Western Kentucky 38 - Southern Miss 31 0.681 Western Kentucky 45 - Southern Miss 28 -10


Number of FBS Games: 15
Number Correct: 11 = 73.3%
Expected Number Correct: 10.45 = 69.6%
Average Error: 12.66
Average Signed Error: 3.33

WEEK 15

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Army 10 - Navy 41 0.964 Army 17 - Navy 21 -27


Number of FBS Games: 1
Number Correct: 1 = 100%
Expected Number Correct: 0.964 = 96.4%
Average Error: 27
Average Signed Error: -27

WEEK 16

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Akron 21 - Utah State 24 0.553 Akron 23 - Utah State 21 -5
Arizona 35 - New Mexico 28 0.646 Arizona 45 - New Mexico 37 -1
Arkansas State 34 - Louisiana Tech 28 0.598 Arkansas State 28 - Louisiana Tech 47 25
Auburn 31 - Memphis 35 0.631 Auburn 31 - Memphis 10 -25
Boise State 29 - Northern Illinois 28 0.505 Boise State 55 - Northern Illinois 7 -47
Brigham Young 23 - Utah 24 0.514 Brigham Young 28 - Utah 35 6
California 34 - Air Force 28 0.681 California 55 - Air Force 36 -13
Central Michigan 23 - Minnesota 24 0.529 Central Michigan 14 - Minnesota 21 6
Connecticut 13 - Marshall 14 0.57 Connecticut 10 - Marshall 16 5
Georgia Southern 24 - Bowling Green 38 0.745 Georgia Southern 58 - Bowling Green 27 -45
Houston 24 - Florida State 28 0.593 Houston 38 - Florida State 24 -18
Indiana 42 - Duke 41 0.561 Indiana 41 - Duke 44 4
Kansas State 31 - Arkansas 42 0.814 Kansas State 23 - Arkansas 45 11
Louisiana State 48 - Texas Tech 41 0.654 Louisiana State 56 - Texas Tech 27 -22
Miami FL 31 - Washington State 34 0.55 Miami FL 14 - Washington State 20 3
Michigan 24 - Florida 20 0.595 Michigan 41 - Florida 7 -30
Michigan State 21 - Alabama 27 0.694 Michigan State 0 - Alabama 38 32
Middle Tennessee 24 - Western Michigan 34 0.71 Middle Tennessee 31 - Western Michigan 45 4
NC State 31 - Miss State 35 0.653 NC State 28 - Miss State 51 19
Nevada 21 - Colorado State 24 0.56 Nevada 28 - Colorado State 23 -8
North Carolina 42 - Baylor 41 0.585 North Carolina 38 - Baylor 49 12
Northwestern 20 - Tennessee 27 0.687 Northwestern 6 - Tennessee 45 32
Notre Dame 24 - Ohio State 31 0.708 Notre Dame 28 - Ohio State 44 9
Ohio 20 - Appalachian State 27 0.66 Ohio 29 - Appalachian State 31 -5
Oklahoma 41 - Clemson 35 0.623 Oklahoma 17 - Clemson 37 26
Oklahoma State 38 - Mississippi 42 0.605 Oklahoma State 20 - Mississippi 48 24
Oregon 42 - Texas Christian 45 0.54 Oregon 41 - Texas Christian 47 3
Penn State 17 - Georgia 21 0.558 Penn State 17 - Georgia 24 3
Pittsburgh 27 - Navy 28 0.536 Pittsburgh 28 - Navy 44 15
San Diego State 28 - Cincinnati 27 0.544 San Diego State 42 - Cincinnati 7 -34
San Jose State 20 - Georgia State 21 0.57 San Jose State 27 - Georgia State 16 -12
Southern California 25 - Wisconsin 24 0.515 Southern California 21 - Wisconsin 23 3
Stanford 34 - Iowa 28 0.643 Stanford 45 - Iowa 16 -23
Texas AM 28 - Louisville 27 0.558 Texas AM 21 - Louisville 27 7
Toledo 27 - Temple 24 0.551 Toledo 32 - Temple 17 -12
Tulsa 28 - Virginia Tech 42 0.851 Tulsa 52 - Virginia Tech 55 -11
UCLA 34 - Nebraska 31 0.537 UCLA 29 - Nebraska 37 11
Washington 31 - Southern Miss 20 0.699 Washington 44 - Southern Miss 31 -2
West Virginia 35 - Arizona State 31 0.616 West Virginia 43 - Arizona State 42 3
Western Kentucky 33 - South Florida 34 0.51 Western Kentucky 45 - South Florida 35 -11


Number of FBS Games: 40
Number Correct: 26 = 65%
Expected Number Correct: 24.452 = 61.1%
Average Error: 14.67
Average Signed Error: -1.53

WEEK 17

Prediction Favorite Win Prob. Actual Error
Clemson 27 - Alabama 34 0.686 Clemson 40 - Alabama 45 -2


Number of FBS Games: 1
Number Correct: 1 = 100%
Expected Number Correct: 0.686 = 68.6%
Average Error: 2
Average Signed Error: -2