Wilson Rankings - Basketball Predictions

2016-2017 PREDICTIONS

WEEK 1 -- 11-11 to 11-13

GAMES OF 11-11

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 77 - Unranked 59		Abilene Christian 73 - Unranked 59
Air Force 85 - Unranked 55		Air Force 88 - Unranked 71
Alabama 73 - Coastal Carolina 60	0.85	Alabama 70 - Coastal Carolina 53	-4
Alabama Birmingham 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 53	0.965	Alabama Birmingham 86 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 66	5
Arizona State 82 - Portland State 62	0.917	Arizona State 88 - Portland State 70	2
Arkansas 81 - IPFW 67	0.844	Arkansas 92 - IPFW 83	5
Auburn 76 - North Florida 70	0.65	Auburn 83 - North Florida 66	-11
Baylor 84 - Oral Roberts 62	0.956	Baylor 76 - Oral Roberts 61	7
Binghamton 64 - Cornell 67	0.595	Binghamton 68 - Cornell 62	-9
Boston College 77 - Nicholls State 58	0.924	Boston College 73 - Nicholls State 79	25
Bradley 81 - Unranked 56		Bradley 70 - Unranked 55
Bucknell 72 - Manhattan 66	0.68	Bucknell 76 - Manhattan 64	-6
Cal State Fullerton 83 - Unranked 59		Cal State Fullerton 77 - Unranked 28
Cal State Northridge 85 - Unranked 59		Cal State Northridge 96 - Unranked 72
California 76 - South Dakota State 65	0.774	California 82 - South Dakota State 53	-18
Central Connecticut State 65 - Hartford 68	0.604	Central Connecticut State 75 - Hartford 60	-18
Central Michigan 87 - Unranked 55		Central Michigan 117 - Unranked 53
Charlotte 89 - Unranked 56		Charlotte 101 - Unranked 88
Cincinnati 83 - Brown 57	0.981	Cincinnati 84 - Brown 55	-3
Clemson 72 - Georgia 68	0.613	Clemson 74 - Georgia 64	-6
College of Charleston 78 - The Citadel 59	0.92	College of Charleston 81 - The Citadel 68	6
Colorado 80 - Sacramento State 57	0.958	Colorado 90 - Sacramento State 53	-14
Connecticut 78 - Wagner 57	0.95	Connecticut 58 - Wagner 67	30
Creighton 84 - UMKC 59	0.969	Creighton 89 - UMKC 82	18
Dayton 82 - Austin Peay 59	0.964	Dayton 96 - Austin Peay 68	-5
Delaware 85 - Unranked 57		Delaware 64 - Unranked 56
Delaware State 77 - Unranked 58		Delaware State 103 - Unranked 56
Detroit 90 - Unranked 57		Detroit 99 - Unranked 69
Drake 74 - South Dakota 69	0.632	Drake 74 - South Dakota 79	10
Duke 91 - Marist 56	0.994	Duke 94 - Marist 49	-10
Duquesne 78 - Loyola MD 66	0.816	Duquesne 65 - Loyola MD 60	7
East Carolina 80 - Grambling State 53	0.984	East Carolina 72 - Grambling State 57	12
East Tennessee State 72 - Fordham 68	0.615	East Tennessee State 96 - Fordham 59	-33
Eastern Illinois 82 - Unranked 55		Eastern Illinois 83 - Unranked 41
Eastern Kentucky 74 - IUPUI 63	0.8	Eastern Kentucky 97 - IUPUI 87	1
Eastern Washington 87 - Unranked 57		Eastern Washington 70 - Unranked 47
Elon 86 - Unranked 55		Elon 101 - Unranked 68
Fairfield 74 - Sacred Heart 64	0.785	Fairfield 85 - Sacred Heart 63	-12
Florida Atlantic 63 - Texas State 67	0.619	Florida Atlantic 57 - Texas State 61	0
Florida Gulf Coast 63 - Florida 74	0.778	Florida Gulf Coast 59 - Florida 80	10
Florida International 82 - Unranked 54		Florida International 76 - Unranked 57
Fresno State 82 - Texas San Antonio 62	0.939	Fresno State 69 - Texas San Antonio 66	17
George Washington 82 - Maryland Eastern Shore 55	0.979	George Washington 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 71	23
Georgia State 86 - Unranked 51		Georgia State 111 - Unranked 69
Georgia Tech 80 - Tennessee Tech 62	0.903	Georgia Tech 70 - Tennessee Tech 55	3
Gonzaga 87 - Utah Valley 54	0.991	Gonzaga 92 - Utah Valley 69	10
Hampton 67 - Rider 66	0.53	Hampton 56 - Rider 67	12
Hawaii 79 - SIU Edwardsville 58	0.955	Hawaii 68 - SIU Edwardsville 69	22
Hofstra 83 - Coppin State 62	0.94	Hofstra 74 - Coppin State 72	19
Houston 81 - Morgan State 59	0.931	Houston 93 - Morgan State 52	-19
Illinois 83 - SE Missouri State 60	0.947	Illinois 81 - SE Missouri State 62	4
Iowa 87 - Kennesaw St 55	0.986	Iowa 91 - Kennesaw St 74	15
Iowa State 86 - Savannah State 53	0.993	Iowa State 113 - Savannah State 71	-9
Jackson State 78 - Unranked 55		Jackson State 66 - Unranked 54
Kansas 80 - Indiana 74	0.659	Kansas 99 - Indiana 103	10
Kansas State 80 - Western Illinois 56	0.97	Kansas State 82 - Western Illinois 55	-3
Kentucky 77 - Stephen F Austin 62	0.859	Kentucky 87 - Stephen F Austin 64	-8
Lamar 79 - Unranked 59		Lamar 90 - Unranked 47
Liberty 79 - Unranked 56		Liberty 81 - Unranked 53
Lipscomb 84 - Unranked 59		Lipscomb 96 - Unranked 53
LIU Brooklyn 84 - Unranked 58		LIU Brooklyn 78 - Unranked 40
Long Beach State 90 - Unranked 53		Long Beach State 95 - Unranked 59
Louisville 80 - Evansville 62	0.928	Louisville 78 - Evansville 47	-13
Loyola Ill 75 - Alcorn State 57	0.93	Loyola Ill 69 - Alcorn State 44	-7
Loyola Marymount 86 - Unranked 56		Loyola Marymount 99 - Unranked 51
Marquette 72 - Vanderbilt 75	0.604	Marquette 95 - Vanderbilt 71	-27
Maryland 79 - American 53	0.976	Maryland 62 - American 56	20
Massachusetts 82 - UMass Lowell 63	0.929	Massachusetts 90 - UMass Lowell 76	5
Mercer 84 - Unranked 52		Mercer 87 - Unranked 53
Miami 83 - Western Carolina 58	0.971	Miami 92 - Western Carolina 43	-24
Miami OH 83 - Unranked 53		Miami OH 84 - Unranked 57
Michigan 84 - Howard 53	0.992	Michigan 76 - Howard 58	13
Michigan State 75 - Arizona 73	0.538	Michigan State 63 - Arizona 65	4
Middle Tennessee 88 - Unranked 49		Middle Tennessee 102 - Unranked 64
Milwaukee 87 - Unranked 53		Milwaukee 88 - Unranked 58
Minnesota 76 - UL Lafayette 70	0.653	Minnesota 86 - UL Lafayette 74	-6
Mississippi 82 - Tennessee Martin 62	0.925	Mississippi 86 - Tennessee Martin 83	17
Mississippi State 77 - Norfolk State 63	0.834	Mississippi State 78 - Norfolk State 74	10
Missouri State 75 - Alabama AM 59	0.905	Missouri State 96 - Alabama AM 62	-18
Monmouth 72 - Drexel 62	0.792	Monmouth 78 - Drexel 65	-3
Morehead State 87 - Unranked 52		Morehead State 106 - Unranked 41
Murray State 69 - Illinois State 68	0.534	Murray State 73 - Illinois State 70	-2
Navy 58 - Ohio State 76	0.911	Navy 68 - Ohio State 78	-8
NC State 82 - Georgia Southern 63	0.928	NC State 81 - Georgia Southern 79	17
Nevada Las Vegas 80 - South Alabama 64	0.887	Nevada Las Vegas 68 - South Alabama 76	24
New Hampshire 81 - Unranked 53		New Hampshire 85 - Unranked 60
New Mexico 79 - Idaho State 58	0.922	New Mexico 81 - Idaho State 70	10
New Mexico State 88 - Unranked 49		New Mexico State 100 - Unranked 52
New Orleans 79 - Unranked 61		New Orleans 103 - Unranked 67
Niagara 65 - Buffalo 76	0.836	Niagara 66 - Buffalo 76	-1
NJ Tech 84 - Unranked 54		NJ Tech 100 - Unranked 38
North Carolina AT 77 - Unranked 59		North Carolina AT 67 - Unranked 50
North Dakota 83 - Unranked 56		North Dakota 98 - Unranked 48
North Dakota State 73 - Arkansas State 60	0.822	North Dakota State 76 - Arkansas State 66	3
North Texas 83 - Unranked 57		North Texas 85 - Unranked 77
Northeastern 74 - Boston 64	0.77	Northeastern 87 - Boston 77	0
Northern Illinois 67 - Indiana State 68	0.501	Northern Illinois 80 - Indiana State 78	-3
Northern Kentucky 81 - Unranked 56		Northern Kentucky 96 - Unranked 56
Northwestern 84 - Mississippi Valley State 54	0.987	Northwestern 94 - Mississippi Valley State 63	-1
Oakland 77 - Bowling Green 67	0.777	Oakland 78 - Bowling Green 70	2
Oklahoma State 81 - Campbell 57	0.965	Oklahoma State 102 - Campbell 65	-13
Old Dominion 68 - James Madison 62	0.703	Old Dominion 62 - James Madison 55	-1
Oregon 87 - Army 59	0.978	Oregon 91 - Army 77	14
Oregon State 81 - Prairie View 54	0.975	Oregon State 78 - Prairie View 58	7
Penn State 72 - Albany 65	0.692	Penn State 81 - Albany 87	13
Pepperdine 72 - Cal Poly 64	0.76	Pepperdine 77 - Cal Poly 68	-1
Pittsburgh 79 - Eastern Michigan 62	0.876	Pittsburgh 93 - Eastern Michigan 90	14
Portland 75 - UC Riverside 66	0.757	Portland 71 - UC Riverside 55	-7
Presbyterian 62 - Furman 66	0.61	Presbyterian 73 - Furman 71	-6
Purdue 87 - Mcneese State 54	0.994	Purdue 109 - Mcneese State 65	-11
Rhode Island 75 - Dartmouth 60	0.897	Rhode Island 84 - Dartmouth 61	-8
Richmond 83 - Virginia Military Institute 61	0.934	Richmond 72 - Virginia Military Institute 69	19
Robert Morris 68 - Pennsylvania 64	0.611	Robert Morris 50 - Pennsylvania 67	21
Rutgers 87 - Unranked 58		Rutgers 86 - Unranked 57
Saint Johns 79 - Bethune Cookman 58	0.919	Saint Johns 100 - Bethune Cookman 53	-26
Saint Louis 72 - Ball State 64	0.73	Saint Louis 64 - Ball State 85	29
Saint Marys 76 - Nevada 62	0.872	Saint Marys 81 - Nevada 63	-4
San Diego State 76 - San Diego 54	0.931	San Diego State 69 - San Diego 59	12
San Francisco 79 - Illinois Chicago 64	0.877	San Francisco 82 - Illinois Chicago 80	13
Santa Clara 76 - Northern Arizona 61	0.848	Santa Clara 67 - Northern Arizona 64	12
Seattle 81 - Unranked 55		Seattle 76 - Unranked 65
Seton Hall 85 - Fairleigh Dickinson 58	0.984	Seton Hall 91 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70	6
South Carolina 76 - Louisiana Tech 68	0.723	South Carolina 85 - Louisiana Tech 76	-1
South Florida 77 - Florida AM 55	0.964	South Florida 84 - Florida AM 73	11
Southeast Louisiana 78 - Unranked 57		Southeast Louisiana 85 - Unranked 39
Southern California 75 - Montana 65	0.787	Southern California 75 - Montana 61	-4
Southern Illinois 69 - Wright State 64	0.643	Southern Illinois 81 - Wright State 85	9
Southern Methodist 81 - Gardner Webb 57	0.971	Southern Methodist 72 - Gardner Webb 44	-4
Southern Miss 82 - Unranked 54		Southern Miss 101 - Unranked 96
Stanford 72 - Harvard 66	0.669	Stanford 80 - Harvard 70	-4
Stetson 81 - Unranked 60		Stetson 78 - Unranked 62
Stony Brook 69 - Columbia 63	0.684	Stony Brook 66 - Columbia 73	13
Syracuse 82 - Colgate 56	0.981	Syracuse 83 - Colgate 55	-2
Temple 77 - La Salle 63	0.847	Temple 97 - La Salle 92	9
Tennessee 75 - Chattanooga 64	0.771	Tennessee 69 - Chattanooga 82	24
Texas 82 - Incarnate Word 58	0.959	Texas 78 - Incarnate Word 73	19
Texas AM 86 - Northwestern State 60	0.97	Texas AM 72 - Northwestern State 44	-2
Texas AM CC 83 - Unranked 52		Texas AM CC 115 - Unranked 100
Texas Christian 89 - Unranked 53		Texas Christian 82 - Unranked 64
Texas Tech 81 - Houston Baptist 59	0.959	Texas Tech 93 - Houston Baptist 67	-4
Troy 81 - Unranked 58		Troy 135 - Unranked 76
Tulane 64 - North Carolina 85	0.957	Tulane 75 - North Carolina 95	-1
Tulsa 79 - Jacksonville State 56	0.963	Tulsa 73 - Jacksonville State 84	34
UC Davis 65 - Tennessee State 66	0.503	UC Davis 64 - Tennessee State 78	13
UC Irvine 72 - Utah State 66	0.689	UC Irvine 56 - Utah State 72	22
UCLA 82 - Pacific 62	0.926	UCLA 119 - Pacific 80	-19
UL Monroe 85 - Unranked 53		UL Monroe 96 - Unranked 63
UMBC 79 - Unranked 61		UMBC 92 - Unranked 61
UNC Greensboro 55 - Virginia 80	0.971	UNC Greensboro 51 - Virginia 76	0
UNC Wilmington 89 - Unranked 53		UNC Wilmington 110 - Unranked 64
Valparaiso 82 - Southern Utah 52	0.986	Valparaiso 79 - Southern Utah 65	16
Villanova 91 - Lafayette 55	0.994	Villanova 88 - Lafayette 48	-4
Virginia Commonwealth 81 - UNC Asheville 61	0.942	Virginia Commonwealth 80 - UNC Asheville 65	5
Virginia Tech 87 - Maine 61	0.981	Virginia Tech 80 - Maine 67	13
Wake Forest 79 - Radford 66	0.857	Wake Forest 80 - Radford 59	-8
Washington State 78 - Montana State 64	0.829	Washington State 69 - Montana State 65	10
Weber State 85 - Unranked 51		Weber State 128 - Unranked 65
West Virginia 83 - Mt St Marys 56	0.967	West Virginia 87 - Mt St Marys 59	-1
Western Michigan 87 - Unranked 54		Western Michigan 90 - Unranked 74
Wichita State 85 - South Carolina State 50	0.996	Wichita State 85 - South Carolina State 39	-11
Wisconsin 90 - Central Arkansas 50	0.997	Wisconsin 79 - Central Arkansas 47	8
Wyoming 87 - Unranked 51		Wyoming 88 - Unranked 49
Xavier 82 - Lehigh 61	0.953	Xavier 84 - Lehigh 81	18

GAMES OF 11-12

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arkansas Little Rock 87 - Unranked 50		Arkansas Little Rock 97 - Unranked 65
Boise State 92 - Unranked 51		Boise State 85 - Unranked 46
Butler 85 - Northern Colorado 57	0.983	Butler 89 - Northern Colorado 52	-9
Cal State Bakersfield 85 - Unranked 52		Cal State Bakersfield 96 - Unranked 54
Chicago State 77 - Unranked 60		Chicago State 97 - Unranked 89
Cleveland State 63 - Kent State 68	0.669	Cleveland State 74 - Kent State 79	0
Davidson 83 - Appalachian State 62	0.917	Davidson 86 - Appalachian State 74	9
Denver 72 - Jacksonville 58	0.851	Denver 84 - Jacksonville 92	22
Duke 86 - Grand Canyon 62	0.975	Duke 96 - Grand Canyon 61	-11
Florida State 84 - Charleston Southern 61	0.97	Florida State 88 - Charleston Southern 67	2
George Mason 71 - Towson 67	0.637	George Mason 61 - Towson 67	10
Georgetown 81 - South Carolina Upstate 57	0.97	Georgetown 105 - South Carolina Upstate 60	-21
Green Bay 91 - Unranked 53		Green Bay 84 - Unranked 49
High Point 86 - Unranked 53		High Point 74 - Unranked 41
Idaho 83 - Unranked 54		Idaho 90 - Unranked 67
Louisiana State 78 - Wofford 63	0.87	Louisiana State 91 - Wofford 69	-7
Marshall 74 - North Carolina Central 65	0.741	Marshall 81 - North Carolina Central 69	-3
Northern Arizona 62 - Tennessee State 70	0.726	Northern Arizona 65 - Tennessee State 69	-4
Northern Iowa 92 - Unranked 47		Northern Iowa 74 - Unranked 37
Notre Dame 87 - Bryant 55	0.993	Notre Dame 89 - Bryant 64	7
Ohio 74 - Southern 61	0.81	Ohio 77 - Southern 67	3
Quinnipiac 64 - Vermont 69	0.644	Quinnipiac 70 - Vermont 94	19
Saint Bonaventure 80 - Saint Francis Penn 57	0.966	Saint Bonaventure 92 - Saint Francis Penn 82	13
Saint Josephs 78 - Toledo 66	0.806	Saint Josephs 77 - Toledo 76	11
Sam Houston State 83 - Unranked 52		Sam Houston State 104 - Unranked 57
San Jose State 81 - Unranked 58		San Jose State 109 - Unranked 70
Santa Clara 72 - UC Davis 65	0.698	Santa Clara 58 - UC Davis 63	12
Texas Arlington 74 - Texas Southern 65	0.747	Texas Arlington 89 - Texas Southern 82	2
Texas El Paso 87 - Unranked 53		Texas El Paso 88 - Unranked 54
UC Santa Barbara 80 - Omaha 67	0.835	UC Santa Barbara 60 - Omaha 74	27
Utah 95 - Unranked 46		Utah 81 - Unranked 37
Valparaiso 90 - Unranked 47		Valparaiso 89 - Unranked 75
Western Kentucky 76 - Alabama State 60	0.91	Western Kentucky 79 - Alabama State 66	3
William and Mary 90 - Unranked 53		William and Mary 96 - Unranked 44
Winthrop 86 - Unranked 54		Winthrop 66 - Unranked 47
Youngstown State 66 - Akron 77	0.78	Youngstown State 90 - Akron 82	-19

GAMES OF 11-13

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arizona State 78 - Cal Poly 63	0.867	Arizona State 96 - Cal Poly 74	-7
Bradley 69 - Delaware 68	0.534	Bradley 49 - Delaware 63	15
Brown 73 - Niagara 66	0.722	Brown 88 - Niagara 79	-2
Cal State Fullerton 72 - Portland State 69	0.609	Cal State Fullerton 106 - Portland State 100	-3
Colorado State 72 - New Mexico State 69	0.611	Colorado State 64 - New Mexico State 61	0
Delaware State 62 - Texas Southern 70	0.734	Delaware State 61 - Texas Southern 74	5
DePaul 74 - Robert Morris 64	0.771	DePaul 78 - Robert Morris 72	4
Florida Atlantic 66 - SIU Edwardsville 65	0.546	Florida Atlantic 68 - SIU Edwardsville 77	10
Hawaii 76 - Texas State 60	0.896	Hawaii 74 - Texas State 68	10
Illinois 79 - Northern Kentucky 60	0.901	Illinois 79 - Northern Kentucky 64	4
Iowa 83 - Savannah State 51	0.983	Iowa 116 - Savannah State 84	0
IPFW 88 - Unranked 54		IPFW 117 - Unranked 60
James Madison 76 - Rice 62	0.861	James Madison 70 - Rice 94	38
Kentucky 87 - Canisius 58	0.984	Kentucky 93 - Canisius 69	5
Longwood 75 - Maine 69	0.675	Longwood 58 - Maine 80	28
Loyola Ill 86 - Unranked 53		Loyola Ill 100 - Unranked 51
Maryland Eastern Shore 72 - UMBC 64	0.717	Maryland Eastern Shore 73 - UMBC 77	12
Mercer 62 - Florida 74	0.838	Mercer 54 - Florida 76	10
Michigan 83 - IUPUI 57	0.971	Michigan 77 - IUPUI 65	14
Missouri 80 - Alabama AM 57	0.957	Missouri 99 - Alabama AM 44	-32
Missouri State 73 - Jacksonville State 61	0.825	Missouri State 91 - Jacksonville State 65	-14
Morehead State 77 - Lipscomb 63	0.872	Morehead State 89 - Lipscomb 75	0
Navy 80 - Unranked 53		Navy 74 - Unranked 47
NC State 80 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 59	0.959	NC State 86 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 61	-4
Nebraska 77 - Sacramento State 59	0.932	Nebraska 83 - Sacramento State 61	-4
Norfolk State 84 - Unranked 55		Norfolk State 78 - Unranked 58
North Carolina 86 - Chattanooga 61	0.972	North Carolina 97 - Chattanooga 57	-15
North Dakota State 84 - Unranked 49		North Dakota State 92 - Unranked 62
Northern Arizona 63 - UC Davis 71	0.727	Northern Arizona 76 - UC Davis 89	5
Oklahoma 91 - Northwestern State 60	0.983	Oklahoma 97 - Northwestern State 61	-5
Oregon State 83 - Texas San Antonio 60	0.961	Oregon State 72 - Texas San Antonio 64	15
Penn State 79 - Duquesne 69	0.758	Penn State 82 - Duquesne 74	2
Rutgers 72 - Drexel 67	0.629	Rutgers 87 - Drexel 66	-16
Santa Clara 71 - Tennessee State 65	0.692	Santa Clara 61 - Tennessee State 69	14
SE Missouri State 81 - Unranked 59		SE Missouri State 86 - Unranked 54
Seton Hall 86 - Central Connecticut State 53	0.995	Seton Hall 82 - Central Connecticut State 58	9
Siena 76 - Cornell 65	0.805	Siena 89 - Cornell 78	0
South Carolina 78 - Holy Cross 59	0.913	South Carolina 81 - Holy Cross 49	-13
South Dakota 70 - Bowling Green 69	0.524	South Dakota 78 - Bowling Green 72	-5
Southern California 85 - Omaha 69	0.892	Southern California 82 - Omaha 72	6
Southern Methodist 78 - Eastern Michigan 61	0.893	Southern Methodist 91 - Eastern Michigan 64	-10
Tennessee Martin 75 - Texas Pan American 60	0.857	Tennessee Martin 88 - Texas Pan American 80	7
The Citadel 82 - Unranked 64		The Citadel 146 - Unranked 84
UC Riverside 82 - Unranked 55		UC Riverside 81 - Unranked 45
UCLA 85 - Cal State Northridge 63	0.963	UCLA 102 - Cal State Northridge 87	7
Unranked 59 - Western Carolina 80		Unranked 47 - Western Carolina 87
Wake Forest 77 - Bucknell 70	0.7	Wake Forest 94 - Bucknell 74	-13
Washington 75 - Yale 71	0.632	Washington 90 - Yale 98	12
Western Illinois 80 - Unranked 55		Western Illinois 95 - Unranked 48
Wichita State 80 - Long Beach State 61	0.932	Wichita State 92 - Long Beach State 55	-18

Number of DI Games: 175
Number Correct: 142 = 81.1%
Expected Number Correct: 147.014 = 84%
Average Error: 10.46
Average Signed Error: 2.72

WEEK 2 -- 11-14 to 11-20

GAMES OF 11-14

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 74 - Jacksonville 69	0.641	Air Force 86 - Jacksonville 68	-13
Alabama Birmingham 79 - Furman 61	0.92	Alabama Birmingham 74 - Furman 84	28
Arkansas 83 - Southern Illinois 68	0.898	Arkansas 90 - Southern Illinois 65	-10
Arkansas Little Rock 90 - Unranked 49		Arkansas Little Rock 100 - Unranked 61
Arkansas Pine Bluff 77 - Unranked 58		Arkansas Pine Bluff 83 - Unranked 47
Arkansas State 85 - Unranked 58		Arkansas State 100 - Unranked 57
Auburn 72 - Georgia State 66	0.664	Auburn 83 - Georgia State 65	-12
Austin Peay 87 - Unranked 58		Austin Peay 107 - Unranked 67
Brigham Young 79 - Princeton 72	0.695	Brigham Young 82 - Princeton 73	-2
Central Florida 75 - Nicholls State 66	0.766	Central Florida 80 - Nicholls State 56	-15
Cincinnati 75 - Albany 64	0.805	Cincinnati 74 - Albany 51	-12
Coastal Carolina 66 - College of Charleston 64	0.563	Coastal Carolina 64 - College of Charleston 71	9
Colorado 82 - Seattle 57	0.96	Colorado 67 - Seattle 55	13
Connecticut 75 - Northeastern 65	0.777	Connecticut 61 - Northeastern 64	13
East Carolina 77 - North Carolina AT 59	0.913	East Carolina 61 - North Carolina AT 51	8
East Tennessee State 79 - Detroit 72	0.693	East Tennessee State 107 - Detroit 78	-22
Eastern Kentucky 75 - UNC Wilmington 72	0.592	Eastern Kentucky 69 - UNC Wilmington 78	12
Elon 74 - Charlotte 73	0.508	Elon 95 - Charlotte 100	6
Evansville 82 - Alcorn State 56	0.985	Evansville 82 - Alcorn State 59	3
Fordham 84 - Unranked 56		Fordham 101 - Unranked 75
Fresno State 80 - Prairie View 58	0.972	Fresno State 78 - Prairie View 84	28
Georgia 79 - UNC Asheville 64	0.916	Georgia 60 - UNC Asheville 46	1
Georgia Southern 89 - Unranked 55		Georgia Southern 92 - Unranked 43
Georgia Tech 80 - Southern 56	0.977	Georgia Tech 77 - Southern 62	9
Gonzaga 76 - San Diego State 66	0.775	Gonzaga 69 - San Diego State 48	-11
Iowa State 88 - Mt St Marys 61	0.989	Iowa State 73 - Mt St Marys 55	9
Kennesaw St 83 - Unranked 57		Kennesaw St 80 - Unranked 74
Louisville 86 - William and Mary 60	0.964	Louisville 91 - William and Mary 58	-7
Loyola Ill 88 - Unranked 51		Loyola Ill 97 - Unranked 59
Loyola MD 82 - Unranked 56		Loyola MD 79 - Unranked 66
Marquette 88 - Howard 55	0.993	Marquette 81 - Howard 49	1
Memphis 85 - Texas Pan American 58	0.977	Memphis 94 - Texas Pan American 75	8
Minnesota 78 - Texas Arlington 70	0.721	Minnesota 84 - Texas Arlington 67	-9
Mississippi 79 - Massachusetts 69	0.813	Mississippi 90 - Massachusetts 88	8
Montana 70 - Wyoming 67	0.599	Montana 72 - Wyoming 73	4
Montana State 70 - UL Lafayette 76	0.671	Montana State 84 - UL Lafayette 83	-7
Nevada 75 - Loyola Marymount 67	0.758	Nevada 79 - Loyola Marymount 64	-7
New Mexico 82 - Houston Baptist 62	0.96	New Mexico 95 - Houston Baptist 79	4
North Florida 87 - Unranked 58		North Florida 109 - Unranked 73
Northern Illinois 88 - Unranked 54		Northern Illinois 99 - Unranked 55
Northwestern 81 - Eastern Washington 64	0.897	Northwestern 86 - Eastern Washington 72	3
Oakland 79 - Western Michigan 68	0.795	Oakland 77 - Western Michigan 60	-6
Ohio 74 - Sam Houston State 64	0.802	Ohio 96 - Sam Houston State 75	-11
Ohio State 81 - North Carolina Central 55	0.987	Ohio State 69 - North Carolina Central 63	20
Oklahoma State 86 - Central Arkansas 58	0.983	Oklahoma State 102 - Central Arkansas 90	16
Oral Roberts 88 - Unranked 56		Oral Roberts 87 - Unranked 76
Pacific 68 - Green Bay 79	0.782	Pacific 76 - Green Bay 58	-29
Pittsburgh 84 - Gardner Webb 60	0.976	Pittsburgh 99 - Gardner Webb 80	5
Providence 78 - Vermont 65	0.843	Providence 80 - Vermont 58	-9
Purdue 73 - Villanova 76	0.597	Purdue 76 - Villanova 79	0
Rhode Island 81 - Marist 58	0.968	Rhode Island 107 - Marist 65	-19
Richmond 67 - Old Dominion 66	0.53	Richmond 61 - Old Dominion 64	4
Saint Johns 78 - Binghamton 58	0.917	Saint Johns 77 - Binghamton 61	4
Saint Josephs 74 - Columbia 68	0.703	Saint Josephs 85 - Columbia 65	-14
Saint Louis 75 - Southern Utah 63	0.825	Saint Louis 88 - Southern Utah 76	0
Saint Peters 71 - Lafayette 63	0.743	Saint Peters 57 - Lafayette 61	12
San Diego 73 - Samford 65	0.725	San Diego 65 - Samford 83	26
SIU Edwardsville 68 - Texas State 66	0.59	SIU Edwardsville 58 - Texas State 86	30
South Alabama 88 - Unranked 54		South Alabama 88 - Unranked 35
South Carolina State 80 - Unranked 58		South Carolina State 93 - Unranked 76
South Carolina Upstate 82 - Unranked 59		South Carolina Upstate 91 - Unranked 66
Stetson 69 - Florida International 72	0.59	Stetson 82 - Florida International 67	-18
Temple 78 - New Hampshire 63	0.876	Temple 52 - New Hampshire 57	20
Tennessee Tech 72 - Central Michigan 70	0.551	Tennessee Tech 74 - Central Michigan 86	14
Texas 78 - UL Monroe 62	0.856	Texas 80 - UL Monroe 59	-5
Texas AM 78 - American 55	0.954	Texas AM 76 - American 53	0
Texas Christian 78 - Alabama State 59	0.943	Texas Christian 98 - Alabama State 62	-17
Troy 68 - Eastern Illinois 69	0.527	Troy 70 - Eastern Illinois 67	-4
Tulane 78 - Southeast Louisiana 63	0.863	Tulane 93 - Southeast Louisiana 76	-2
UC Irvine 70 - South Dakota State 69	0.524	UC Irvine 73 - South Dakota State 58	-14
UMass Lowell 65 - Wagner 77	0.821	UMass Lowell 87 - Wagner 76	-23
UNC Greensboro 74 - Presbyterian 64	0.78	UNC Greensboro 61 - Presbyterian 42	-9
Utah State 77 - NJ Tech 62	0.836	Utah State 93 - NJ Tech 84	6
Valparaiso 82 - Coppin State 57	0.962	Valparaiso 78 - Coppin State 58	5
West Virginia 93 - Mississippi Valley State 53	0.999	West Virginia 107 - Mississippi Valley State 66	-1
Xavier 82 - Buffalo 65	0.902	Xavier 86 - Buffalo 53	-16

GAMES OF 11-15

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 87 - Unranked 56		Air Force 105 - Unranked 62
Alabama 71 - Dayton 69	0.56	Alabama 72 - Dayton 77	7
Arizona 84 - Cal State Bakersfield 58	0.985	Arizona 78 - Cal State Bakersfield 66	14
Army 90 - Unranked 58		Army 91 - Unranked 53
Ball State 75 - Indiana State 69	0.686	Ball State 74 - Indiana State 80	12
Baylor 76 - Oregon 74	0.556	Baylor 66 - Oregon 49	-15
Boston College 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 64	0.801	Boston College 73 - Maryland Eastern Shore 57	-5
Bryant 84 - Unranked 59		Bryant 88 - Unranked 61
Campbell 81 - Unranked 62		Campbell 101 - Unranked 45
Charleston Southern 84 - Unranked 59		Charleston Southern 90 - Unranked 53
Cleveland State 71 - Canisius 70	0.513	Cleveland State 67 - Canisius 64	-2
Creighton 71 - Wisconsin 73	0.562	Creighton 79 - Wisconsin 67	-14
Dartmouth 68 - Fairfield 70	0.591	Dartmouth 62 - Fairfield 79	15
Eastern Michigan 91 - Unranked 56		Eastern Michigan 78 - Unranked 63
Fairleigh Dickinson 87 - Unranked 60		Fairleigh Dickinson 96 - Unranked 48
Florida State 79 - Iona 70	0.778	Florida State 99 - Iona 78	-12
George Mason 86 - Unranked 55		George Mason 90 - Unranked 65
George Washington 77 - Siena 67	0.777	George Washington 77 - Siena 75	8
Georgetown 76 - Maryland 71	0.645	Georgetown 75 - Maryland 76	6
Hartford 71 - Niagara 68	0.574	Hartford 82 - Niagara 78	-1
Illinois 94 - Unranked 50		Illinois 112 - Unranked 65
Incarnate Word 89 - Unranked 56		Incarnate Word 93 - Unranked 90
Kansas 78 - Duke 81	0.6	Kansas 77 - Duke 75	-5
Kansas State 82 - Omaha 66	0.923	Kansas State 81 - Omaha 68	3
La Salle 75 - Delaware 68	0.705	La Salle 74 - Delaware 68	1
Liberty 58 - Virginia Commonwealth 80	0.968	Liberty 59 - Virginia Commonwealth 64	-17
Lipscomb 85 - Unranked 60		Lipscomb 99 - Unranked 70
Louisiana State 82 - Southern Miss 61	0.936	Louisiana State 78 - Southern Miss 61	4
Manhattan 71 - Winthrop 70	0.506	Manhattan 81 - Winthrop 94	14
Mcneese State 83 - Unranked 60		Mcneese State 75 - Unranked 85
Michigan State 73 - Kentucky 77	0.613	Michigan State 48 - Kentucky 69	17
Middle Tennessee 72 - Murray State 67	0.636	Middle Tennessee 87 - Murray State 81	-1
Morgan State 62 - Towson 73	0.796	Morgan State 72 - Towson 78	-5
Nebraska 93 - Unranked 50		Nebraska 70 - Unranked 38
Norfolk State 87 - Unranked 57		Norfolk State 91 - Unranked 55
North Carolina 91 - Long Beach State 61	0.99	North Carolina 93 - Long Beach State 67	4
North Dakota 86 - Unranked 57		North Dakota 94 - Unranked 66
Penn State 76 - Grand Canyon 69	0.765	Penn State 85 - Grand Canyon 76	-2
Pepperdine 70 - Weber State 66	0.667	Pepperdine 69 - Weber State 68	3
Sacred Heart 67 - Hofstra 74	0.712	Sacred Heart 90 - Hofstra 86	-11
San Jose State 68 - Portland 73	0.643	San Jose State 66 - Portland 79	8
South Carolina 78 - Monmouth 65	0.87	South Carolina 70 - Monmouth 69	12
Stanford 85 - Cal State Northridge 62	0.982	Stanford 96 - Cal State Northridge 69	-4
Stephen F Austin 85 - Longwood 53	0.99	Stephen F Austin 66 - Longwood 60	26
Syracuse 83 - Holy Cross 54	0.991	Syracuse 90 - Holy Cross 46	-15
Tennessee 80 - Appalachian State 64	0.848	Tennessee 103 - Appalachian State 94	7
Tennessee Martin 88 - Unranked 56		Tennessee Martin 95 - Unranked 64
Texas Tech 81 - North Texas 62	0.933	Texas Tech 70 - North Texas 43	-8
The Citadel 83 - Unranked 64		The Citadel 119 - Unranked 90
Toledo 79 - Youngstown State 70	0.751	Toledo 103 - Youngstown State 98	4
UMKC 74 - Drake 69	0.688	UMKC 68 - Drake 62	-1
Unranked 59 - Wofford 82		Unranked 77 - Wofford 117
Unranked 64 - Virginia Military Institute 81		Unranked 47 - Virginia Military Institute 78
Utah 97 - Unranked 45		Utah 96 - Unranked 53
Vanderbilt 79 - Belmont 72	0.686	Vanderbilt 80 - Belmont 66	-7
Virginia 84 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 51	0.997	Virginia 72 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 32	-7
Virginia Tech 79 - High Point 64	0.902	Virginia Tech 99 - High Point 73	-11
Washington State 89 - Unranked 53		Washington State 81 - Unranked 76
Wright State 73 - Miami OH 60	0.805	Wright State 89 - Miami OH 87	11

GAMES OF 11-16

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Albany 93 - Unranked 50		Albany 97 - Unranked 56
Bethune Cookman 65 - Kennesaw St 70	0.64	Bethune Cookman 75 - Kennesaw St 72	-8
Binghamton 67 - Central Connecticut State 62	0.67	Binghamton 72 - Central Connecticut State 70	3
Bucknell 76 - Robert Morris 64	0.856	Bucknell 75 - Robert Morris 62	-1
Butler 78 - Northwestern 66	0.826	Butler 70 - Northwestern 68	10
California 81 - UC Irvine 59	0.95	California 75 - UC Irvine 65	12
Coastal Carolina 76 - Coppin State 63	0.822	Coastal Carolina 89 - Coppin State 59	-17
Colorado State 93 - Unranked 53		Colorado State 84 - Unranked 75
Cornell 72 - Colgate 71	0.513	Cornell 63 - Colgate 67	5
Duquesne 76 - Saint Francis Penn 67	0.794	Duquesne 89 - Saint Francis Penn 75	-5
Florida Gulf Coast 71 - Texas Arlington 72	0.543	Florida Gulf Coast 85 - Texas Arlington 72	-14
Hartford 62 - Rider 71	0.774	Hartford 68 - Rider 84	7
Houston 95 - Unranked 51		Houston 84 - Unranked 72
Illinois Chicago 70 - Texas San Antonio 69	0.533	Illinois Chicago 86 - Texas San Antonio 78	-7
Illinois State 77 - IPFW 69	0.749	Illinois State 75 - IPFW 57	-10
Indiana 96 - UMass Lowell 59	0.998	Indiana 100 - UMass Lowell 78	15
Kent State 83 - Mississippi Valley State 59	0.99	Kent State 93 - Mississippi Valley State 63	-6
LIU Brooklyn 74 - Loyola MD 67	0.701	LIU Brooklyn 65 - Loyola MD 61	3
Louisiana Tech 82 - Alabama State 60	0.968	Louisiana Tech 87 - Alabama State 56	-9
Marist 64 - Vermont 76	0.826	Marist 72 - Vermont 76	-8
Marshall 73 - Morehead State 72	0.538	Marshall 85 - Morehead State 77	-7
Memphis 77 - Milwaukee 67	0.738	Memphis 68 - Milwaukee 54	-4
Minnesota 79 - Mt St Marys 63	0.898	Minnesota 80 - Mt St Marys 56	-8
Montana State 84 - Unranked 59		Montana State 93 - Unranked 76
Nevada Las Vegas 77 - UC Riverside 61	0.899	Nevada Las Vegas 74 - UC Riverside 62	4
New Mexico State 76 - Samford 61	0.9	New Mexico State 58 - Samford 48	5
North Florida 61 - Miami 84	0.933	North Florida 56 - Miami 94	15
Northern Colorado 83 - Unranked 59		Northern Colorado 94 - Unranked 73
Northern Illinois 72 - Idaho 64	0.763	Northern Illinois 63 - Idaho 49	-6
Notre Dame 84 - Seattle 56	0.978	Notre Dame 92 - Seattle 49	-15
Oklahoma State 86 - New Orleans 58	0.975	Oklahoma State 117 - New Orleans 72	-17
Oregon State 83 - Lamar 58	0.976	Oregon State 60 - Lamar 63	28
Radford 84 - Unranked 56		Radford 91 - Unranked 69
Rhode Island 81 - Brown 62	0.953	Rhode Island 79 - Brown 72	12
Rice 78 - Texas Southern 68	0.758	Rice 68 - Texas Southern 71	13
Saint Marys 84 - Prairie View 51	0.995	Saint Marys 110 - Prairie View 72	-5
San Diego State 94 - Unranked 47		San Diego State 81 - Unranked 58
South Dakota 89 - Unranked 56		South Dakota 99 - Unranked 60
South Dakota State 91 - Unranked 53		South Dakota State 80 - Unranked 72
Southeast Louisiana 67 - Jackson State 65	0.571	Southeast Louisiana 84 - Jackson State 71	-11
Southern Illinois 90 - Unranked 55		Southern Illinois 85 - Unranked 64
Texas Pan American 63 - Texas AM CC 73	0.797	Texas Pan American 72 - Texas AM CC 94	12
UC Santa Barbara 72 - San Francisco 69	0.609	UC Santa Barbara 63 - San Francisco 75	15
UMBC 73 - Delaware State 62	0.816	UMBC 90 - Delaware State 68	-11
Unranked 57 - Chattanooga 87		Unranked 54 - Chattanooga 102
Utah State 93 - Unranked 50		Utah State 96 - Unranked 53
Utah Valley 73 - Idaho State 67	0.691	Utah Valley 82 - Idaho State 73	-3
Western Carolina 70 - North Carolina Central 64	0.669	Western Carolina 59 - North Carolina Central 67	14
Western Illinois 71 - SE Missouri State 67	0.653	Western Illinois 71 - SE Missouri State 74	7
Western Kentucky 75 - Jacksonville State 63	0.825	Western Kentucky 74 - Jacksonville State 67	5
Wichita State 85 - Tulsa 59	0.953	Wichita State 80 - Tulsa 53	-1

GAMES OF 11-17

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 72 - American 63	0.754	Akron 72 - American 62	-1
Alabama Birmingham 80 - Troy 62	0.938	Alabama Birmingham 74 - Troy 51	-5
Appalachian State 85 - Unranked 58		Appalachian State 119 - Unranked 51
Arizona State 69 - Northern Iowa 72	0.568	Arizona State 63 - Northern Iowa 82	16
Auburn 77 - Eastern Kentucky 72	0.65	Auburn 85 - Eastern Kentucky 64	-16
Brigham Young 88 - Coppin State 60	0.964	Brigham Young 96 - Coppin State 59	-9
Buffalo 91 - Unranked 52		Buffalo 85 - Unranked 38
Cal Poly 84 - Unranked 57		Cal Poly 75 - Unranked 64
Central Michigan 89 - Unranked 54		Central Michigan 107 - Unranked 58
Charlotte 76 - East Carolina 68	0.705	Charlotte 76 - East Carolina 64	-4
College of Charleston 67 - Boise State 71	0.648	College of Charleston 60 - Boise State 47	-17
Colorado 79 - UL Monroe 63	0.88	Colorado 89 - UL Monroe 70	-3
Davidson 70 - Clemson 77	0.726	Davidson 78 - Clemson 95	10
DePaul 77 - Rutgers 73	0.613	DePaul 59 - Rutgers 66	11
Florida AM 77 - Unranked 63		Florida AM 100 - Unranked 91
George Washington 80 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 53	0.974	George Washington 61 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 41	7
Georgetown 85 - Arkansas State 59	0.979	Georgetown 72 - Arkansas State 78	32
Georgia 81 - Furman 59	0.962	Georgia 84 - Furman 78	16
Hampton 83 - Unranked 57		Hampton 70 - Unranked 69
Harvard 90 - Unranked 52		Harvard 78 - Unranked 51
Iowa 78 - Seton Hall 73	0.66	Iowa 83 - Seton Hall 91	13
Lafayette 70 - NJ Tech 71	0.546	Lafayette 84 - NJ Tech 83	-2
Louisville 87 - Long Beach State 58	0.991	Louisville 88 - Long Beach State 56	-3
Loyola Marymount 65 - Connecticut 74	0.746	Loyola Marymount 62 - Connecticut 65	-6
Marquette 76 - Michigan 72	0.623	Marquette 61 - Michigan 79	22
Maryland 96 - Unranked 48		Maryland 93 - Unranked 45
Massachusetts 73 - Temple 74	0.5	Massachusetts 70 - Temple 67	-4
Mississippi State 75 - Central Florida 67	0.725	Mississippi State 61 - Central Florida 86	33
Missouri 70 - Xavier 79	0.709	Missouri 82 - Xavier 83	-8
Missouri State 92 - Unranked 53		Missouri State 100 - Unranked 27
Morgan State 80 - Unranked 60		Morgan State 88 - Unranked 73
New Hampshire 74 - Abilene Christian 59	0.878	New Hampshire 57 - Abilene Christian 65	23
Nicholls State 84 - Unranked 58		Nicholls State 86 - Unranked 55
North Carolina AT 71 - Grambling State 59	0.845	North Carolina AT 55 - Grambling State 59	16
Northern Arizona 81 - Unranked 60		Northern Arizona 91 - Unranked 63
Ohio State 74 - Providence 71	0.607	Ohio State 72 - Providence 67	-2
Oregon 78 - Valparaiso 66	0.827	Oregon 76 - Valparaiso 54	-10
Pepperdine 89 - Unranked 52		Pepperdine 85 - Unranked 79
Portland State 85 - Unranked 60		Portland State 113 - Unranked 81
Sacramento State 82 - Unranked 58		Sacramento State 82 - Unranked 60
Saint Bonaventure 69 - Florida 76	0.736	Saint Bonaventure 66 - Florida 73	0
Saint Louis 70 - Eastern Illinois 67	0.599	Saint Louis 74 - Eastern Illinois 69	-2
Sam Houston State 70 - Southern 61	0.784	Sam Houston State 91 - Southern 83	1
San Jose State 69 - Denver 68	0.511	San Jose State 69 - Denver 74	6
Savannah State 82 - Unranked 59		Savannah State 101 - Unranked 93
South Carolina Upstate 67 - UNC Asheville 73	0.695	South Carolina Upstate 57 - UNC Asheville 73	10
South Dakota 89 - Unranked 56		South Dakota 80 - Unranked 46
South Florida 71 - Elon 69	0.577	South Florida 61 - Elon 74	15
Southern Methodist 76 - Pittsburgh 72	0.625	Southern Methodist 76 - Pittsburgh 67	-5
Stanford 78 - Weber State 63	0.904	Stanford 67 - Weber State 49	-3
Tennessee Tech 79 - Alabama AM 57	0.942	Tennessee Tech 95 - Alabama AM 61	-12
Texas 83 - Eastern Washington 63	0.93	Texas 85 - Eastern Washington 52	-13
Texas El Paso 70 - Wake Forest 78	0.767	Texas El Paso 81 - Wake Forest 103	14
Tulane 66 - Oklahoma 85	0.933	Tulane 70 - Oklahoma 89	0
UC Davis 85 - Unranked 56		UC Davis 89 - Unranked 75
UCLA 83 - San Diego 63	0.932	UCLA 88 - San Diego 68	0
UL Lafayette 91 - Unranked 56		UL Lafayette 117 - Unranked 47
Villanova 85 - Western Michigan 59	0.974	Villanova 76 - Western Michigan 65	15
Washington 88 - Cal State Fullerton 68	0.962	Washington 104 - Cal State Fullerton 88	4
Wisconsin 87 - Chicago State 48	0.999	Wisconsin 69 - Chicago State 51	21
Yale 81 - Lehigh 67	0.883	Yale 89 - Lehigh 81	6

GAMES OF 11-18

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 76 - Ball State 62	0.869	Alabama 77 - Ball State 59	-4
Alcorn State 77 - Unranked 60		Alcorn State 93 - Unranked 48
Arizona 91 - Sacred Heart 53	0.997	Arizona 95 - Sacred Heart 65	8
Arkansas 82 - Texas Arlington 70	0.818	Arkansas 71 - Texas Arlington 67	8
Arkansas Little Rock 74 - Idaho 59	0.89	Arkansas Little Rock 57 - Idaho 65	23
Baylor 81 - Florida Gulf Coast 60	0.95	Baylor 81 - Florida Gulf Coast 72	12
Bethune Cookman 77 - Unranked 61		Bethune Cookman 82 - Unranked 52
Boise State 75 - Mississippi State 72	0.573	Boise State 68 - Mississippi State 80	15
Boston 70 - Northeastern 73	0.612	Boston 65 - Northeastern 63	-5
Bradley 68 - SE Missouri State 67	0.535	Bradley 84 - SE Missouri State 78	-5
College of Charleston 70 - Central Florida 64	0.692	College of Charleston 40 - Central Florida 60	26
Creighton 79 - Washington State 67	0.828	Creighton 103 - Washington State 77	-14
Drexel 72 - Hartford 63	0.757	Drexel 87 - Hartford 73	-5
Duquesne 75 - Canisius 72	0.627	Duquesne 77 - Canisius 78	4
Eastern Michigan 74 - Gardner Webb 67	0.731	Eastern Michigan 76 - Gardner Webb 68	-1
Florida State 83 - Winthrop 66	0.915	Florida State 100 - Winthrop 86	3
Fordham 74 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70	0.599	Fordham 68 - Fairleigh Dickinson 55	-9
George Mason 71 - Mt St Marys 67	0.634	George Mason 76 - Mt St Marys 78	6
Georgia Tech 78 - Ohio 65	0.854	Georgia Tech 61 - Ohio 67	19
Gonzaga 88 - Bryant 57	0.996	Gonzaga 109 - Bryant 70	-8
Hawaii 67 - North Carolina 86	0.934	Hawaii 68 - North Carolina 83	-4
High Point 75 - UNC Greensboro 68	0.732	High Point 63 - UNC Greensboro 57	1
Houston Baptist 84 - Unranked 60		Houston Baptist 98 - Unranked 54
Illinois 80 - Detroit 69	0.823	Illinois 89 - Detroit 69	-9
IUPUI 73 - Howard 64	0.801	IUPUI 77 - Howard 55	-13
Jacksonville 72 - Youngstown State 77	0.62	Jacksonville 79 - Youngstown State 54	-30
Kansas 89 - Siena 65	0.984	Kansas 86 - Siena 65	3
Kent State 90 - Unranked 54		Kent State 111 - Unranked 55
Lipscomb 64 - Saint Peters 70	0.669	Lipscomb 77 - Saint Peters 90	7
Longwood 78 - Unranked 62		Longwood 87 - Unranked 74
Louisiana State 85 - North Florida 64	0.936	Louisiana State 78 - North Florida 70	13
Loyola Ill 65 - Saint Josephs 73	0.755	Loyola Ill 57 - Saint Josephs 71	6
Manhattan 68 - Hofstra 70	0.569	Manhattan 80 - Hofstra 68	-14
Marquette 78 - Pittsburgh 76	0.574	Marquette 75 - Pittsburgh 78	5
Miami OH 69 - Delaware 65	0.612	Miami OH 66 - Delaware 68	6
Michigan 67 - Southern Methodist 73	0.684	Michigan 76 - Southern Methodist 54	-28
Michigan State 94 - Mississippi Valley State 51	0.999	Michigan State 100 - Mississippi Valley State 53	-4
Minnesota 76 - Saint Johns 71	0.609	Minnesota 92 - Saint Johns 86	-1
Missouri 74 - Davidson 73	0.527	Missouri 55 - Davidson 70	16
Montana 65 - NC State 78	0.863	Montana 72 - NC State 85	0
Montana State 69 - James Madison 70	0.545	Montana State 80 - James Madison 73	-8
Nevada 70 - Oregon State 72	0.587	Nevada 83 - Oregon State 58	-27
New Mexico 72 - New Mexico State 66	0.709	New Mexico 72 - New Mexico State 59	-7
North Carolina Central 67 - Jackson State 61	0.676	North Carolina Central 84 - Jackson State 75	-3
North Dakota State 71 - Navy 64	0.761	North Dakota State 66 - Navy 59	0
Northern Kentucky 70 - Austin Peay 71	0.53	Northern Kentucky 69 - Austin Peay 77	7
Northwestern State 86 - Unranked 60		Northwestern State 92 - Unranked 87
Notre Dame 85 - Loyola MD 56	0.994	Notre Dame 83 - Loyola MD 48	-6
Oakland 95 - Unranked 54		Oakland 102 - Unranked 59
Oklahoma 77 - Northern Iowa 69	0.7	Oklahoma 67 - Northern Iowa 73	14
Oral Roberts 68 - Mississippi 80	0.885	Oral Roberts 88 - Mississippi 95	-5
Portland 89 - Unranked 54		Portland 98 - Unranked 52
Purdue 81 - Georgia State 61	0.934	Purdue 64 - Georgia State 56	12
SIU Edwardsville 72 - Southern Illinois 70	0.555	SIU Edwardsville 83 - Southern Illinois 101	20
South Alabama 73 - Florida International 65	0.709	South Alabama 69 - Florida International 64	3
South Carolina 84 - South Carolina State 55	0.993	South Carolina 92 - South Carolina State 50	-13
Southern Miss 84 - Unranked 55		Southern Miss 60 - Unranked 44
Southern Utah 82 - Unranked 60		Southern Utah 108 - Unranked 92
Stephen F Austin 92 - Unranked 48		Stephen F Austin 75 - Unranked 70
Stetson 78 - The Citadel 70	0.736	Stetson 112 - The Citadel 116	12
Syracuse 80 - Monmouth 61	0.947	Syracuse 71 - Monmouth 50	-2
Tennessee Martin 73 - Cleveland State 66	0.728	Tennessee Martin 85 - Cleveland State 74	-4
Texas AM 75 - Southern California 67	0.742	Texas AM 63 - Southern California 65	10
Texas Christian 75 - Jacksonville State 62	0.809	Texas Christian 79 - Jacksonville State 60	-6
Texas El Paso 72 - Western Michigan 71	0.557	Texas El Paso 85 - Western Michigan 75	-9
Tulane 68 - Arizona State 77	0.78	Tulane 71 - Arizona State 80	0
Utah 87 - Coppin State 54	0.98	Utah 94 - Coppin State 51	-10
Vanderbilt 82 - Norfolk State 65	0.873	Vanderbilt 75 - Norfolk State 52	-6
Virginia Commonwealth 81 - Binghamton 54	0.995	Virginia Commonwealth 81 - Binghamton 42	-12
Wake Forest 67 - Villanova 82	0.887	Wake Forest 77 - Villanova 96	4
Xavier 75 - Clemson 73	0.574	Xavier 83 - Clemson 77	-4

GAMES OF 11-19

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Army 78 - Arkansas State 69	0.749	Army 57 - Arkansas State 60	12
Belmont 77 - Western Kentucky 69	0.748	Belmont 90 - Western Kentucky 69	-13
Boston 76 - Maine 68	0.741	Boston 102 - Maine 78	-16
Bowling Green 72 - UMKC 67	0.668	Bowling Green 69 - UMKC 71	7
Brigham Young 82 - Coastal Carolina 63	0.913	Brigham Young 81 - Coastal Carolina 65	3
Brown 73 - Marist 69	0.643	Brown 79 - Marist 87	12
Butler 83 - Bucknell 63	0.948	Butler 86 - Bucknell 60	-6
Cal Poly 84 - Unranked 57		Cal Poly 69 - Unranked 52
Cal State Bakersfield 70 - UC Santa Barbara 63	0.723	Cal State Bakersfield 77 - UC Santa Barbara 70	0
Cal State Northridge 69 - Northern Illinois 73	0.632	Cal State Northridge 84 - Northern Illinois 82	-6
Central Arkansas 63 - Chattanooga 81	0.903	Central Arkansas 64 - Chattanooga 75	-7
Charleston Southern 74 - South Carolina Upstate 67	0.712	Charleston Southern 77 - South Carolina Upstate 79	9
Cincinnati 72 - Rhode Island 66	0.698	Cincinnati 71 - Rhode Island 76	11
Dayton 72 - Saint Marys 69	0.601	Dayton 57 - Saint Marys 61	7
Delaware 70 - Northern Kentucky 67	0.607	Delaware 53 - Northern Kentucky 74	24
Drake 85 - Unranked 57		Drake 76 - Unranked 61
Duke 85 - Penn State 66	0.951	Duke 78 - Penn State 68	9
Eastern Illinois 73 - Western Illinois 63	0.772	Eastern Illinois 73 - Western Illinois 64	1
Evansville 73 - Morehead State 68	0.679	Evansville 69 - Morehead State 56	-8
Fairleigh Dickinson 75 - Lipscomb 73	0.578	Fairleigh Dickinson 90 - Lipscomb 72	-16
Fordham 65 - Saint Peters 64	0.525	Fordham 63 - Saint Peters 41	-21
Fresno State 82 - Lamar 61	0.952	Fresno State 83 - Lamar 64	2
Grand Canyon 69 - Albany 75	0.705	Grand Canyon 82 - Albany 77	-11
Green Bay 72 - Murray State 73	0.515	Green Bay 77 - Murray State 93	15
High Point 73 - Navy 66	0.729	High Point 69 - Navy 62	0
Howard 63 - Gardner Webb 69	0.719	Howard 78 - Gardner Webb 94	10
Illinois Chicago 83 - Unranked 58		Illinois Chicago 102 - Unranked 66
Indiana 93 - Liberty 55	0.998	Indiana 87 - Liberty 48	-1
Indiana State 90 - Unranked 55		Indiana State 96 - Unranked 55
IPFW 82 - UMass Lowell 67	0.919	IPFW 94 - UMass Lowell 81	2
IUPUI 70 - Eastern Michigan 75	0.651	IUPUI 83 - Eastern Michigan 71	-17
Jacksonville 70 - Florida International 71	0.539	Jacksonville 78 - Florida International 75	-4
La Salle 75 - Texas Southern 68	0.706	La Salle 76 - Texas Southern 77	8
LIU Brooklyn 68 - Northeastern 77	0.78	LIU Brooklyn 78 - Northeastern 74	-13
Marshall 79 - Western Carolina 67	0.799	Marshall 98 - Western Carolina 63	-23
Memphis 84 - Savannah State 59	0.969	Memphis 99 - Savannah State 86	12
Miami 83 - Pennsylvania 57	0.964	Miami 74 - Pennsylvania 62	14
Miami OH 72 - Austin Peay 65	0.674	Miami OH 76 - Austin Peay 70	1
Middle Tennessee 73 - Tennessee State 61	0.837	Middle Tennessee 63 - Tennessee State 74	23
Morgan State 72 - Campbell 67	0.629	Morgan State 82 - Campbell 66	-11
Nebraska 77 - Louisiana Tech 70	0.72	Nebraska 65 - Louisiana Tech 54	-4
Nevada Las Vegas 81 - Cal State Fullerton 68	0.837	Nevada Las Vegas 77 - Cal State Fullerton 68	4
NJ Tech 74 - Colgate 66	0.704	NJ Tech 74 - Colgate 68	2
Oakland 86 - Chicago State 59	0.984	Oakland 107 - Chicago State 79	-1
Omaha 78 - Rice 75	0.578	Omaha 87 - Rice 100	16
Oral Roberts 67 - Loyola Ill 72	0.666	Oral Roberts 53 - Loyola Ill 78	20
Providence 89 - Grambling State 46	0.999	Providence 71 - Grambling State 54	26
Saint Francis Penn 84 - Unranked 57		Saint Francis Penn 119 - Unranked 59
Santa Clara 72 - Northern Colorado 65	0.752	Santa Clara 88 - Northern Colorado 72	-9
South Alabama 75 - Youngstown State 71	0.612	South Alabama 84 - Youngstown State 75	-5
South Florida 66 - Rider 67	0.511	South Florida 70 - Rider 65	-6
Texas San Antonio 74 - Prairie View 63	0.823	Texas San Antonio 69 - Prairie View 59	1
Texas Tech 80 - Eastern Kentucky 69	0.84	Texas Tech 90 - Eastern Kentucky 71	-8
Tulsa 81 - New Orleans 63	0.859	Tulsa 77 - New Orleans 68	9
UC Irvine 76 - Pacific 64	0.825	UC Irvine 72 - Pacific 65	5
UC Riverside 80 - Unranked 57		UC Riverside 96 - Unranked 50
UMBC 71 - Kennesaw St 68	0.588	UMBC 93 - Kennesaw St 85	-5
UNC Greensboro 65 - North Dakota State 73	0.762	UNC Greensboro 65 - North Dakota State 54	-19
Unranked 61 - Furman 79		Unranked 53 - Furman 102
Utah State 81 - Idaho State 59	0.959	Utah State 85 - Idaho State 51	-12
Utah Valley 86 - Unranked 59		Utah Valley 86 - Unranked 52
Vermont 92 - Unranked 51		Vermont 79 - Unranked 20
Virginia Tech 83 - Virginia Military Institute 61	0.957	Virginia Tech 88 - Virginia Military Institute 72	6
Wagner 73 - Fairfield 64	0.74	Wagner 64 - Fairfield 70	15
Washington State 69 - Montana 68	0.521	Washington State 87 - Montana 63	-23
William and Mary 78 - Presbyterian 60	0.892	William and Mary 89 - Presbyterian 59	-12
Wright State 73 - Toledo 69	0.629	Wright State 78 - Toledo 82	8
Wyoming 71 - South Dakota State 70	0.539	Wyoming 77 - South Dakota State 67	-9

GAMES OF 11-20

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 80 - Florida AM 59	0.943	Air Force 87 - Florida AM 62	-4
Akron 76 - Radford 62	0.867	Akron 88 - Radford 41	-33
Arizona State 74 - Davidson 73	0.537	Arizona State 60 - Davidson 68	9
Boise State 77 - Western Michigan 69	0.74	Boise State 91 - Western Michigan 70	-13
Boston 77 - LIU Brooklyn 70	0.689	Boston 86 - LIU Brooklyn 69	-10
Boston College 66 - Stony Brook 72	0.665	Boston College 82 - Stony Brook 75	-13
Bowling Green 68 - Green Bay 74	0.703	Bowling Green 61 - Green Bay 77	10
Brown 65 - Albany 79	0.877	Brown 76 - Albany 80	-10
Central Arkansas 70 - Army 78	0.72	Central Arkansas 81 - Army 76	-13
Central Florida 58 - Villanova 86	0.983	Central Florida 57 - Villanova 67	-18
Chattanooga 77 - Arkansas State 65	0.796	Chattanooga 67 - Arkansas State 73	18
Cincinnati 75 - Penn State 65	0.801	Cincinnati 71 - Penn State 50	-11
College of Charleston 66 - Wake Forest 72	0.728	College of Charleston 61 - Wake Forest 78	11
Creighton 77 - NC State 76	0.508	Creighton 112 - NC State 94	-17
Delaware 72 - Austin Peay 70	0.577	Delaware 75 - Austin Peay 76	3
DePaul 73 - Milwaukee 72	0.543	DePaul 77 - Milwaukee 59	-17
East Carolina 77 - Stetson 65	0.827	East Carolina 73 - Stetson 50	-11
Florida Atlantic 82 - Unranked 58		Florida Atlantic 98 - Unranked 64
Florida International 70 - Youngstown State 73	0.585	Florida International 73 - Youngstown State 78	2
Florida State 83 - Detroit 69	0.873	Florida State 100 - Detroit 71	-15
Fordham 74 - Lipscomb 67	0.655	Fordham 85 - Lipscomb 69	-9
High Point 68 - North Dakota State 69	0.527	High Point 44 - North Dakota State 70	25
Holy Cross 66 - Massachusetts 73	0.707	Holy Cross 60 - Massachusetts 68	1
Iowa 90 - Texas Pan American 57	0.996	Iowa 95 - Texas Pan American 67	5
Iowa State 96 - The Citadel 59	0.998	Iowa State 130 - The Citadel 63	-30
Kansas State 82 - Hampton 57	0.987	Kansas State 89 - Hampton 67	3
Kentucky 90 - Duquesne 60	0.991	Kentucky 93 - Duquesne 59	-4
Lafayette 74 - Cornell 69	0.705	Lafayette 75 - Cornell 82	12
Lehigh 73 - Princeton 74	0.539	Lehigh 76 - Princeton 67	-10
Maine 68 - Northeastern 75	0.728	Maine 72 - Northeastern 80	1
Marist 65 - Grand Canyon 76	0.833	Marist 72 - Grand Canyon 84	1
Maryland 78 - Towson 61	0.922	Maryland 71 - Towson 66	12
Mcneese State 83 - Unranked 60		Mcneese State 96 - Unranked 73
Mercer 71 - Georgia Southern 69	0.562	Mercer 80 - Georgia Southern 67	-11
Miami OH 70 - Northern Kentucky 62	0.696	Miami OH 70 - Northern Kentucky 79	17
Michigan State 84 - Florida Gulf Coast 58	0.977	Michigan State 78 - Florida Gulf Coast 77	25
Mississippi 73 - Saint Josephs 74	0.511	Mississippi 81 - Saint Josephs 68	-14
Mississippi State 74 - Texas El Paso 70	0.625	Mississippi State 61 - Texas El Paso 54	-3
Navy 71 - UNC Greensboro 70	0.506	Navy 59 - UNC Greensboro 72	14
Nevada 72 - Iona 74	0.564	Nevada 91 - Iona 76	-17
New Mexico State 79 - Bethune Cookman 54	0.968	New Mexico State 89 - Bethune Cookman 73	9
North Dakota 86 - Unranked 57		North Dakota 101 - Unranked 63
North Texas 72 - Drexel 65	0.713	North Texas 62 - Drexel 83	28
Northern Iowa 69 - Xavier 75	0.668	Northern Iowa 59 - Xavier 67	2
Oklahoma 77 - Clemson 73	0.611	Oklahoma 70 - Clemson 64	-2
Rhode Island 66 - Duke 82	0.901	Rhode Island 65 - Duke 75	-6
Richmond 76 - Robert Morris 61	0.899	Richmond 81 - Robert Morris 69	3
Rutgers 81 - Niagara 64	0.905	Rutgers 78 - Niagara 65	4
Saint Peters 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 67	0.596	Saint Peters 84 - Fairleigh Dickinson 58	-23
San Diego 73 - Nicholls State 64	0.734	San Diego 81 - Nicholls State 72	0
South Alabama 76 - Jacksonville 67	0.742	South Alabama 71 - Jacksonville 58	-4
Stanford 79 - Colorado State 69	0.787	Stanford 56 - Colorado State 49	3
Temple 80 - Manhattan 62	0.931	Temple 88 - Manhattan 67	-3
Tennessee Tech 71 - Sam Houston State 66	0.642	Tennessee Tech 71 - Sam Houston State 78	12
Tulane 68 - Missouri 77	0.726	Tulane 62 - Missouri 67	-4
UCLA 85 - Long Beach State 68	0.905	UCLA 114 - Long Beach State 77	-20
UMKC 66 - Murray State 78	0.832	UMKC 85 - Murray State 74	-23
UNC Asheville 73 - Siena 71	0.563	UNC Asheville 92 - Siena 80	-10
UNC Wilmington 74 - East Tennessee State 71	0.579	UNC Wilmington 68 - East Tennessee State 59	-6
Virginia 78 - Yale 64	0.884	Virginia 62 - Yale 38	-10
Washington 88 - Northern Arizona 62	0.983	Washington 92 - Northern Arizona 58	-8
West Virginia 82 - New Hampshire 58	0.968	West Virginia 100 - New Hampshire 41	-35
Wichita State 90 - Maryland Eastern Shore 52	0.998	Wichita State 116 - Maryland Eastern Shore 79	1

Number of DI Games: 359
Number Correct: 262 = 72.9%
Expected Number Correct: 277.308 = 77.2%
Average Error: 9.84
Average Signed Error: 0.01

WEEK 3 -- 11-21 to 11-27

GAMES OF 11-21

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 73 - Valparaiso 64	0.772	Alabama 60 - Valparaiso 68	17
Alabama Birmingham 67 - Kansas 83	0.928	Alabama Birmingham 63 - Kansas 83	4
Arizona 93 - Northern Colorado 54	0.999	Arizona 71 - Northern Colorado 55	23
Arkansas Pine Bluff 76 - Unranked 58		Arkansas Pine Bluff 74 - Unranked 77
Belmont 67 - Florida 78	0.832	Belmont 61 - Florida 78	6
Bowling Green 67 - Murray State 74	0.721	Bowling Green 78 - Murray State 77	-8
Bradley 68 - Hofstra 71	0.59	Bradley 90 - Hofstra 92	-1
Brigham Young 83 - Saint Louis 65	0.946	Brigham Young 92 - Saint Louis 62	-12
Butler 85 - Norfolk State 57	0.992	Butler 91 - Norfolk State 55	-8
Campbell 62 - Samford 74	0.823	Campbell 53 - Samford 66	1
Canisius 73 - Tennessee Martin 72	0.543	Canisius 69 - Tennessee Martin 72	4
Colorado 73 - Notre Dame 78	0.671	Colorado 83 - Notre Dame 89	1
Connecticut 69 - Oklahoma State 75	0.654	Connecticut 90 - Oklahoma State 98	2
Coppin State 63 - Ball State 79	0.913	Coppin State 77 - Ball State 79	-14
Creighton 83 - Mississippi 78	0.677	Creighton 86 - Mississippi 77	-4
Eastern Illinois 69 - Troy 64	0.665	Eastern Illinois 71 - Troy 67	1
Eastern Washington 78 - Bryant 71	0.732	Eastern Washington 81 - Bryant 77	3
George Washington 66 - Georgia 72	0.699	George Washington 73 - Georgia 81	2
Georgetown 71 - Oregon 78	0.667	Georgetown 65 - Oregon 61	-11
Houston 81 - George Mason 64	0.872	Houston 93 - George Mason 56	-20
Idaho 70 - South Dakota State 67	0.622	Idaho 96 - South Dakota State 89	-4
Illinois 80 - Winthrop 66	0.898	Illinois 80 - Winthrop 84	18
Incarnate Word 92 - Unranked 55		Incarnate Word 91 - Unranked 61
James Madison 68 - Texas Southern 69	0.538	James Madison 56 - Texas Southern 67	10
Liberty 72 - UMass Lowell 70	0.549	Liberty 84 - UMass Lowell 77	-5
Maine 70 - LIU Brooklyn 76	0.686	Maine 66 - LIU Brooklyn 71	-1
Marshall 85 - Jackson State 60	0.977	Marshall 71 - Jackson State 61	15
Montana 72 - Oral Roberts 73	0.523	Montana 68 - Oral Roberts 47	-22
NC State 75 - Saint Josephs 77	0.578	NC State 73 - Saint Josephs 63	-12
North Carolina 107 - Unranked 47		North Carolina 104 - Unranked 61
Northwestern 69 - Texas 76	0.72	Northwestern 77 - Texas 58	-26
Ohio State 84 - Western Carolina 56	0.985	Ohio State 66 - Western Carolina 38	0
Pepperdine 70 - Central Michigan 71	0.509	Pepperdine 77 - Central Michigan 88	10
Providence 80 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 58	0.979	Providence 64 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 48	6
Quinnipiac 63 - Columbia 76	0.824	Quinnipiac 78 - Columbia 86	-5
Rice 78 - Montana State 69	0.761	Rice 83 - Montana State 78	4
Sacramento State 66 - UC Davis 73	0.738	Sacramento State 72 - UC Davis 81	2
Saint Bonaventure 75 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	0.712	Saint Bonaventure 65 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	10
San Diego State 65 - California 71	0.701	San Diego State 77 - California 65	-18
Santa Clara 75 - Sacred Heart 68	0.745	Santa Clara 84 - Sacred Heart 74	-3
Savannah State 84 - Unranked 61		Savannah State 118 - Unranked 101
Seattle 66 - UL Monroe 71	0.65	Seattle 81 - UL Monroe 75	-11
South Dakota 71 - Kent State 77	0.688	South Dakota 80 - Kent State 77	-9
Southeast Louisiana 85 - Unranked 60		Southeast Louisiana 89 - Unranked 72
Southern Illinois 74 - Mt St Marys 66	0.736	Southern Illinois 73 - Mt St Marys 63	-2
Southern Miss 78 - Alabama AM 57	0.928	Southern Miss 63 - Alabama AM 55	13
Southern Utah 63 - Coastal Carolina 78	0.911	Southern Utah 68 - Coastal Carolina 83	0
Tennessee 66 - Wisconsin 77	0.779	Tennessee 62 - Wisconsin 74	1
Texas Arlington 92 - Unranked 56		Texas Arlington 88 - Unranked 67
Texas Christian 70 - Illinois State 67	0.59	Texas Christian 80 - Illinois State 71	-6
Texas State 67 - Texas AM CC 68	0.511	Texas State 69 - Texas AM CC 73	3
UL Lafayette 81 - Delaware State 58	0.975	UL Lafayette 83 - Delaware State 82	22
UMKC 73 - Green Bay 69	0.609	UMKC 77 - Green Bay 95	22
Vanderbilt 80 - Bucknell 64	0.872	Vanderbilt 72 - Bucknell 75	19
Vermont 73 - Wofford 69	0.623	Vermont 60 - Wofford 59	3
Washington State 69 - Loyola Ill 70	0.533	Washington State 79 - Loyola Ill 88	8
Wright State 90 - Unranked 54		Wright State 109 - Unranked 54

GAMES OF 11-22

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 75 - Charleston Southern 62	0.881	Abilene Christian 65 - Charleston Southern 66	14
Air Force 83 - Stetson 62	0.92	Air Force 85 - Stetson 72	8
Akron 79 - Georgia Southern 65	0.807	Akron 75 - Georgia Southern 67	6
Alabama Birmingham 69 - George Washington 73	0.636	Alabama Birmingham 81 - George Washington 74	-11
Alcorn State 81 - Unranked 61		Alcorn State 83 - Unranked 57
American 67 - Wagner 66	0.529	American 65 - Wagner 73	9
Arkansas State 79 - SIU Edwardsville 62	0.878	Arkansas State 75 - SIU Edwardsville 57	-1
Auburn 73 - Texas Tech 75	0.561	Auburn 67 - Texas Tech 65	-4
Boston 93 - Unranked 54		Boston 91 - Unranked 54
Boston College 72 - Towson 69	0.611	Boston College 80 - Towson 70	-7
Bradley 64 - Wofford 72	0.728	Bradley 70 - Wofford 62	-16
Bryant 70 - UL Monroe 77	0.722	Bryant 64 - UL Monroe 57	-14
Cal State Bakersfield 74 - Fresno State 68	0.696	Cal State Bakersfield 71 - Fresno State 63	-2
Central Connecticut State 64 - Pennsylvania 72	0.754	Central Connecticut State 65 - Pennsylvania 87	14
Central Michigan 71 - Saint Bonaventure 75	0.602	Central Michigan 71 - Saint Bonaventure 102	27
Charlotte 86 - South Carolina Upstate 62	0.96	Charlotte 103 - South Carolina Upstate 108	29
Chicago State 82 - Unranked 62		Chicago State 103 - Unranked 75
East Carolina 79 - Florida AM 55	0.99	East Carolina 82 - Florida AM 62	4
Eastern Washington 73 - Seattle 67	0.659	Eastern Washington 80 - Seattle 76	2
Florida Atlantic 64 - South Florida 69	0.668	Florida Atlantic 78 - South Florida 62	-21
Furman 73 - UNC Asheville 72	0.515	Furman 58 - UNC Asheville 64	7
Gardner Webb 88 - Unranked 59		Gardner Webb 103 - Unranked 53
George Mason 68 - Kent State 77	0.813	George Mason 79 - Kent State 75	-13
Georgetown 68 - Wisconsin 74	0.678	Georgetown 57 - Wisconsin 73	10
Georgia Tech 76 - Sam Houston State 63	0.877	Georgia Tech 81 - Sam Houston State 73	5
Harvard 77 - Holy Cross 62	0.882	Harvard 52 - Holy Cross 63	26
Hawaii 91 - Unranked 54		Hawaii 86 - Unranked 55
Hofstra 67 - Vermont 76	0.734	Hofstra 73 - Vermont 87	5
Houston 80 - South Dakota 67	0.803	Houston 85 - South Dakota 58	-14
Houston Baptist 87 - Unranked 61		Houston Baptist 116 - Unranked 80
Idaho State 66 - Eastern Kentucky 77	0.827	Idaho State 82 - Eastern Kentucky 91	-2
IPFW 69 - Indiana 87	0.94	IPFW 71 - Indiana 68	-21
Jacksonville State 83 - Unranked 57		Jacksonville State 81 - Unranked 50
Kansas 78 - Georgia 69	0.845	Kansas 65 - Georgia 54	-2
Kansas State 83 - Robert Morris 58	0.996	Kansas State 61 - Robert Morris 40	4
Kennesaw St 72 - Alabama State 66	0.726	Kennesaw St 79 - Alabama State 72	-1
Lamar 71 - Texas San Antonio 66	0.659	Lamar 78 - Texas San Antonio 58	-15
Marquette 82 - IUPUI 66	0.891	Marquette 104 - IUPUI 79	-9
Maryland 81 - Stony Brook 61	0.954	Maryland 77 - Stony Brook 63	6
Memphis 88 - Mcneese State 64	0.974	Memphis 104 - Mcneese State 65	-15
Mercer 77 - Radford 57	0.889	Mercer 58 - Radford 47	9
Middle Tennessee 74 - Toledo 72	0.576	Middle Tennessee 80 - Toledo 70	-8
Minnesota 77 - Arkansas 74	0.604	Minnesota 85 - Arkansas 71	-11
Mississippi Valley State 69 - UMass Lowell 82	0.854	Mississippi Valley State 71 - UMass Lowell 76	-8
Monmouth 80 - Cornell 62	0.959	Monmouth 76 - Cornell 61	3
Nevada Las Vegas 79 - Northern Arizona 59	0.949	Nevada Las Vegas 110 - Northern Arizona 71	-19
New Mexico State 79 - Nicholls State 61	0.928	New Mexico State 86 - Nicholls State 74	6
NJ Tech 69 - Georgia State 72	0.607	NJ Tech 53 - Georgia State 74	18
North Carolina 86 - Oklahoma State 71	0.87	North Carolina 107 - Oklahoma State 75	-17
North Dakota State 91 - Unranked 49		North Dakota State 83 - Unranked 52
North Florida 89 - Unranked 58		North Florida 112 - Unranked 66
Northwestern 70 - Notre Dame 79	0.765	Northwestern 66 - Notre Dame 70	-5
Northwestern State 88 - Unranked 62		Northwestern State 82 - Unranked 69
Omaha 91 - Unranked 60		Omaha 112 - Unranked 65
Oregon 80 - Tennessee 69	0.765	Oregon 69 - Tennessee 65	7
Pacific 71 - Wyoming 72	0.546	Pacific 73 - Wyoming 65	-9
Pepperdine 71 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	0.615	Pepperdine 66 - Arkansas Little Rock 65	2
Pittsburgh 77 - Yale 73	0.635	Pittsburgh 75 - Yale 70	-1
Prairie View 83 - Unranked 61		Prairie View 84 - Unranked 69
Presbyterian 70 - Virginia Military Institute 71	0.537	Presbyterian 77 - Virginia Military Institute 67	-11
Richmond 79 - Hampton 62	0.956	Richmond 65 - Hampton 52	4
Saint Marys 88 - San Jose State 52	0.999	Saint Marys 81 - San Jose State 64	19
San Diego 77 - Bethune Cookman 62	0.85	San Diego 96 - Bethune Cookman 91	10
SE Missouri State 74 - Texas Pan American 68	0.717	SE Missouri State 83 - Texas Pan American 72	-5
Southern 72 - Tennessee Tech 68	0.63	Southern 80 - Tennessee Tech 68	-8
Southern California 89 - New Orleans 56	0.993	Southern California 88 - New Orleans 54	-1
Southern Methodist 80 - UC Santa Barbara 55	0.971	Southern Methodist 84 - UC Santa Barbara 57	-2
Syracuse 89 - South Carolina State 49	0.999	Syracuse 101 - South Carolina State 59	-2
Texas 76 - Colorado 72	0.618	Texas 54 - Colorado 68	18
Tulsa 69 - Oregon State 67	0.558	Tulsa 75 - Oregon State 64	-9
Unranked 61 - Binghamton 77		Unranked 77 - Binghamton 95
Unranked 55 - Connecticut 86		Unranked 82 - Connecticut 93
Utah State 72 - Purdue 76	0.63	Utah State 64 - Purdue 85	17
Virginia 90 - Grambling State 40	0.999	Virginia 90 - Grambling State 34	-6
Washington 84 - Long Beach State 71	0.866	Washington 94 - Long Beach State 88	7
Western Kentucky 77 - North Carolina AT 59	0.96	Western Kentucky 77 - North Carolina AT 56	-3
Youngstown State 89 - Unranked 60		Youngstown State 97 - Unranked 67

GAMES OF 11-23

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 79 - Saint Louis 62	0.944	Alabama 62 - Saint Louis 57	12
Arizona State 89 - The Citadel 66	0.952	Arizona State 127 - The Citadel 110	6
Brown 75 - Morgan State 69	0.69	Brown 81 - Morgan State 75	0
Buffalo 91 - Unranked 54		Buffalo 85 - Unranked 79
Canisius 68 - Tennessee State 71	0.59	Canisius 58 - Tennessee State 72	11
Central Michigan 72 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	0.61	Central Michigan 79 - Arkansas Little Rock 91	16
Cincinnati 79 - Samford 57	0.958	Cincinnati 70 - Samford 55	7
Colorado State 81 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59	0.982	Colorado State 76 - Maryland Eastern Shore 65	11
Columbia 80 - Army 66	0.868	Columbia 83 - Army 88	19
Connecticut 65 - Oregon 75	0.765	Connecticut 69 - Oregon 79	0
Denver 73 - Utah Valley 71	0.585	Denver 85 - Utah Valley 88	5
DePaul 73 - Missouri State 72	0.546	DePaul 68 - Missouri State 66	-1
Duke 86 - William and Mary 64	0.948	Duke 88 - William and Mary 67	1
Duquesne 75 - Tennessee Martin 74	0.558	Duquesne 63 - Tennessee Martin 66	4
Eastern Kentucky 70 - Georgia State 71	0.529	Eastern Kentucky 65 - Georgia State 82	16
Eastern Michigan 90 - Unranked 57		Eastern Michigan 97 - Unranked 60
Elon 77 - Illinois Chicago 69	0.767	Elon 91 - Illinois Chicago 80	-3
Florida Gulf Coast 79 - Binghamton 60	0.938	Florida Gulf Coast 69 - Binghamton 53	3
Florida International 81 - Unranked 58		Florida International 89 - Unranked 72
Fordham 69 - Rider 62	0.706	Fordham 73 - Rider 62	-4
George Mason 72 - Bradley 67	0.677	George Mason 77 - Bradley 66	-6
Hartford 72 - Appalachian State 77	0.666	Hartford 61 - Appalachian State 70	4
Houston 77 - Vermont 66	0.753	Houston 72 - Vermont 71	10
Idaho State 67 - NJ Tech 76	0.749	Idaho State 67 - NJ Tech 71	-5
Jacksonville 86 - Unranked 56		Jacksonville 97 - Unranked 52
James Madison 71 - UL Lafayette 73	0.572	James Madison 70 - UL Lafayette 82	10
Kent State 75 - Wofford 68	0.717	Kent State 66 - Wofford 59	0
Kentucky 87 - Cleveland State 52	0.998	Kentucky 101 - Cleveland State 70	4
Lafayette 69 - Princeton 74	0.682	Lafayette 55 - Princeton 71	11
Liberty 77 - Mississippi Valley State 62	0.864	Liberty 70 - Mississippi Valley State 55	0
Louisiana State 70 - Wichita State 80	0.836	Louisiana State 47 - Wichita State 82	25
Louisiana Tech 92 - Unranked 53		Louisiana Tech 79 - Unranked 63
Loyola MD 62 - Fairfield 72	0.831	Loyola MD 81 - Fairfield 66	-25
Michigan State 78 - Saint Johns 70	0.703	Michigan State 73 - Saint Johns 62	-3
Navy 73 - UMBC 69	0.644	Navy 78 - UMBC 66	-8
Nevada 77 - Oakland 75	0.562	Nevada 82 - Oakland 78	-2
New Hampshire 71 - Detroit 67	0.614	New Hampshire 86 - Detroit 70	-12
Niagara 68 - Drexel 74	0.735	Niagara 93 - Drexel 74	-25
North Carolina 78 - Wisconsin 68	0.782	North Carolina 71 - Wisconsin 56	-5
Northern Illinois 78 - Cal Poly 64	0.917	Northern Illinois 64 - Cal Poly 68	18
Ohio State 86 - Jackson State 53	0.995	Ohio State 78 - Jackson State 47	2
Oklahoma State 77 - Georgetown 76	0.539	Oklahoma State 97 - Georgetown 70	-26
Old Dominion 57 - Louisville 79	0.976	Old Dominion 62 - Louisville 68	-16
Penn State 77 - Colgate 64	0.9	Penn State 72 - Colgate 59	0
Pepperdine 71 - Saint Bonaventure 74	0.631	Pepperdine 63 - Saint Bonaventure 89	23
Purdue 79 - Auburn 73	0.666	Purdue 96 - Auburn 71	-19
Rice 82 - Delaware State 57	0.967	Rice 80 - Delaware State 58	3
Rutgers 79 - North Texas 58	0.925	Rutgers 66 - North Texas 53	8
Saint Francis Penn 76 - Longwood 66	0.751	Saint Francis Penn 87 - Longwood 72	-5
San Francisco 78 - Troy 60	0.932	San Francisco 79 - Troy 67	6
Siena 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 59	0.958	Siena 66 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 43	-4
South Carolina 72 - Michigan 74	0.548	South Carolina 61 - Michigan 46	-17
South Dakota 77 - Hofstra 71	0.671	South Dakota 57 - Hofstra 65	14
Southern Utah 64 - Ball State 79	0.914	Southern Utah 83 - Ball State 94	-4
Texas AM CC 91 - Unranked 53		Texas AM CC 84 - Unranked 61
Texas Arlington 74 - Mt St Marys 66	0.772	Texas Arlington 80 - Mt St Marys 71	-1
Texas El Paso 79 - Southeast Louisiana 66	0.876	Texas El Paso 56 - Southeast Louisiana 72	29
Unranked 60 - Tennessee 91		Unranked 81 - Tennessee 95
Utah State 70 - Texas Tech 71	0.509	Utah State 51 - Texas Tech 75	23
Valparaiso 67 - Brigham Young 78	0.796	Valparaiso 92 - Brigham Young 89	-14
Villanova 82 - College of Charleston 54	0.986	Villanova 63 - College of Charleston 47	12
Virginia Commonwealth 70 - Baylor 74	0.611	Virginia Commonwealth 63 - Baylor 71	4
Wake Forest 83 - Coastal Carolina 66	0.943	Wake Forest 86 - Coastal Carolina 74	5
Western Illinois 79 - Unranked 60		Western Illinois 91 - Unranked 53

GAMES OF 11-24

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arizona 84 - Santa Clara 58	0.994	Arizona 69 - Santa Clara 61	18
Binghamton 64 - Long Beach State 74	0.807	Binghamton 72 - Long Beach State 64	-18
Bucknell 75 - Norfolk State 69	0.709	Bucknell 84 - Norfolk State 58	-20
Butler 74 - Vanderbilt 68	0.655	Butler 76 - Vanderbilt 66	-4
Cal State Northridge 65 - Texas AM 83	0.937	Cal State Northridge 73 - Texas AM 95	4
Dayton 73 - Nebraska 68	0.666	Dayton 78 - Nebraska 80	7
Gonzaga 90 - Quinnipiac 55	0.997	Gonzaga 82 - Quinnipiac 62	15
Indiana State 68 - Iowa State 84	0.872	Indiana State 71 - Iowa State 73	-14
Iona 76 - Drake 69	0.75	Iona 64 - Drake 53	-4
Louisville 77 - Wichita State 71	0.724	Louisville 62 - Wichita State 52	-4
Miami 76 - Stanford 69	0.695	Miami 67 - Stanford 53	-7
Michigan State 70 - Baylor 75	0.628	Michigan State 58 - Baylor 73	10
Mississippi 86 - Montana 63	0.971	Mississippi 86 - Montana 81	18
New Mexico 74 - Virginia Tech 75	0.535	New Mexico 72 - Virginia Tech 92	19
Old Dominion 67 - Louisiana State 72	0.67	Old Dominion 60 - Louisiana State 66	1
Sacred Heart 77 - Northern Colorado 70	0.737	Sacred Heart 59 - Northern Colorado 81	29
Saint Johns 70 - Virginia Commonwealth 78	0.698	Saint Johns 69 - Virginia Commonwealth 75	-2
Seton Hall 68 - Florida 75	0.71	Seton Hall 76 - Florida 81	-2
Temple 69 - Florida State 79	0.796	Temple 89 - Florida State 86	-13
UCLA 86 - Portland 71	0.864	UCLA 99 - Portland 77	-7
Weber State 68 - UC Davis 66	0.587	Weber State 86 - UC Davis 58	-26
West Virginia 80 - Illinois 69	0.782	West Virginia 89 - Illinois 57	-21

GAMES OF 11-25

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 70 - Akron 73	0.569	Air Force 75 - Akron 84	6
Arizona 74 - Butler 70	0.64	Arizona 65 - Butler 69	8
Baylor 69 - Louisville 77	0.739	Baylor 66 - Louisville 63	-11
Boise State 79 - Presbyterian 61	0.891	Boise State 82 - Presbyterian 56	-8
Cal Poly 71 - Illinois Chicago 73	0.548	Cal Poly 71 - Illinois Chicago 84	11
Cal State Fullerton 70 - Jacksonville State 71	0.502	Cal State Fullerton 38 - Jacksonville State 61	22
California 81 - Wyoming 64	0.922	California 71 - Wyoming 61	7
Clemson 84 - High Point 61	0.969	Clemson 83 - High Point 74	14
Colorado State 81 - Southeast Louisiana 61	0.958	Colorado State 67 - Southeast Louisiana 59	12
East Carolina 65 - Mercer 68	0.582	East Carolina 66 - Mercer 70	1
Evansville 74 - Toledo 72	0.597	Evansville 79 - Toledo 83	6
Florida 73 - Gonzaga 74	0.533	Florida 72 - Gonzaga 77	4
Florida AM 63 - Georgia Southern 78	0.92	Florida AM 72 - Georgia Southern 83	-4
Florida Gulf Coast 79 - Long Beach State 69	0.775	Florida Gulf Coast 68 - Long Beach State 67	9
Georgia 83 - Gardner Webb 60	0.993	Georgia 77 - Gardner Webb 59	5
Grand Canyon 84 - Coppin State 62	0.983	Grand Canyon 70 - Coppin State 37	-11
Hawaii 77 - Troy 59	0.917	Hawaii 63 - Troy 65	20
Hofstra 87 - Unranked 60		Hofstra 89 - Unranked 56
Holy Cross 72 - South Carolina State 62	0.792	Holy Cross 73 - South Carolina State 57	-6
Illinois 72 - Florida State 75	0.626	Illinois 61 - Florida State 72	8
Iowa 63 - Virginia 80	0.941	Iowa 41 - Virginia 74	16
Kansas 86 - UNC Asheville 61	0.992	Kansas 95 - UNC Asheville 57	-13
Kansas State 77 - Boston College 65	0.858	Kansas State 72 - Boston College 54	-6
Kentucky 89 - Tennessee Martin 58	0.993	Kentucky 111 - Tennessee Martin 76	-4
Louisiana State 72 - Virginia Commonwealth 77	0.644	Louisiana State 74 - Virginia Commonwealth 85	6
Loyola Marymount 80 - Portland State 69	0.89	Loyola Marymount 78 - Portland State 62	-5
Maryland 77 - Richmond 67	0.825	Maryland 88 - Richmond 82	4
Memphis 71 - Providence 75	0.639	Memphis 51 - Providence 60	5
Miami 76 - Iowa State 75	0.536	Miami 56 - Iowa State 73	18
Michigan State 71 - Wichita State 76	0.693	Michigan State 77 - Wichita State 72	-10
Milwaukee 62 - East Tennessee State 77	0.815	Milwaukee 62 - East Tennessee State 86	9
Minnesota 84 - Southern Illinois 66	0.92	Minnesota 57 - Southern Illinois 45	6
Mississippi State 76 - Lehigh 74	0.575	Mississippi State 73 - Lehigh 87	16
Nevada 75 - Buffalo 70	0.672	Nevada 67 - Buffalo 62	0
Nevada Las Vegas 69 - Texas Christian 70	0.519	Nevada Las Vegas 59 - Texas Christian 63	3
New Mexico 82 - Cal State Northridge 69	0.858	New Mexico 105 - Cal State Northridge 89	-3
New Orleans 82 - Unranked 64		New Orleans 90 - Unranked 63
Nicholls State 74 - Bethune Cookman 68	0.646	Nicholls State 76 - Bethune Cookman 69	-1
North Dakota 72 - North Florida 74	0.554	North Dakota 75 - North Florida 76	-1
North Texas 72 - Niagara 65	0.708	North Texas 80 - Niagara 71	-2
Northern Arizona 70 - Alabama State 67	0.592	Northern Arizona 71 - Alabama State 57	-11
Northern Colorado 65 - Bucknell 80	0.913	Northern Colorado 63 - Bucknell 75	-3
Northern Illinois 74 - Elon 70	0.67	Northern Illinois 80 - Elon 85	9
Northwestern 85 - Bryant 63	0.975	Northwestern 86 - Bryant 66	2
Oakland 95 - Unranked 58		Oakland 71 - Unranked 65
Ohio 81 - Tennessee Tech 61	0.952	Ohio 68 - Tennessee Tech 57	9
Ohio State 81 - Marshall 69	0.822	Ohio State 111 - Marshall 70	-29
Oklahoma 87 - Abilene Christian 60	0.991	Oklahoma 72 - Abilene Christian 64	19
Old Dominion 69 - Saint Johns 70	0.538	Old Dominion 63 - Saint Johns 55	-9
Oregon State 72 - Fresno State 67	0.611	Oregon State 58 - Fresno State 63	10
Pittsburgh 82 - Morehead State 65	0.946	Pittsburgh 76 - Morehead State 63	4
Portland 66 - Dayton 79	0.893	Portland 74 - Dayton 84	-3
Prairie View 70 - Lamar 69	0.511	Prairie View 83 - Lamar 91	9
Princeton 91 - Unranked 54		Princeton 108 - Unranked 46
Rhode Island 78 - Belmont 69	0.773	Rhode Island 82 - Belmont 73	0
Robert Morris 71 - Hampton 70	0.502	Robert Morris 62 - Hampton 48	-13
Rutgers 82 - Hartford 58	0.969	Rutgers 77 - Hartford 75	22
Sacred Heart 72 - Norfolk State 74	0.555	Sacred Heart 61 - Norfolk State 59	-4
Saint Francis Brooklyn 72 - Savannah State 67	0.689	Saint Francis Brooklyn 97 - Savannah State 91	-1
Sam Houston State 73 - Idaho 66	0.729	Sam Houston State 69 - Idaho 62	0
Santa Clara 62 - Vanderbilt 78	0.887	Santa Clara 66 - Vanderbilt 76	-6
Seton Hall 85 - Quinnipiac 56	0.988	Seton Hall 90 - Quinnipiac 79	18
South Dakota State 68 - UC Irvine 71	0.607	South Dakota State 52 - UC Irvine 63	8
Southern California 71 - Southern Methodist 70	0.529	Southern California 78 - Southern Methodist 73	-4
Stanford 78 - Indiana State 67	0.829	Stanford 65 - Indiana State 62	8
Stetson 69 - Radford 70	0.502	Stetson 66 - Radford 80	13
Texas Pan American 69 - Grambling State 65	0.63	Texas Pan American 101 - Grambling State 93	-4
Texas San Antonio 66 - Texas State 70	0.646	Texas San Antonio 63 - Texas State 48	-19
Texas Tech 83 - Idaho State 56	0.993	Texas Tech 91 - Idaho State 58	-6
Towson 73 - Stony Brook 66	0.727	Towson 88 - Stony Brook 63	-18
UC Davis 70 - Drake 67	0.614	UC Davis 64 - Drake 58	-3
UCLA 82 - Nebraska 72	0.774	UCLA 82 - Nebraska 71	-1
UMKC 90 - Unranked 54		UMKC 97 - Unranked 82
UNC Wilmington 72 - Middle Tennessee 66	0.668	UNC Wilmington 63 - Middle Tennessee 68	11
Unranked 57 - UNC Greensboro 85		Unranked 54 - UNC Greensboro 90
Unranked 61 - Furman 86		Unranked 48 - Furman 98
Utah 84 - UC Riverside 53	0.994	Utah 85 - UC Riverside 67	13
Virginia Tech 71 - Texas AM 75	0.623	Virginia Tech 65 - Texas AM 68	-1
Washington 82 - Western Kentucky 71	0.821	Washington 86 - Western Kentucky 47	-28
Weber State 70 - Iona 72	0.584	Weber State 54 - Iona 76	20
West Virginia 83 - Temple 66	0.877	West Virginia 77 - Temple 81	21
Wright State 71 - Cal State Bakersfield 69	0.589	Wright State 68 - Cal State Bakersfield 64	-2

GAMES OF 11-26

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 69 - East Carolina 66	0.6	Air Force 63 - East Carolina 70	10
Akron 72 - Mercer 69	0.59	Akron 65 - Mercer 63	1
Alabama State 68 - Cal State Fullerton 76	0.793	Alabama State 76 - Cal State Fullerton 67	-17
American 74 - Saint Francis Penn 64	0.824	American 62 - Saint Francis Penn 69	17
Austin Peay 89 - Unranked 59		Austin Peay 82 - Unranked 63
Bowling Green 72 - Morgan State 64	0.732	Bowling Green 90 - Morgan State 58	-24
Brigham Young 86 - Utah Valley 65	0.971	Brigham Young 101 - Utah Valley 114	34
Cal State Bakersfield 75 - North Florida 69	0.722	Cal State Bakersfield 77 - North Florida 54	-17
Central Florida 79 - Seattle 56	0.933	Central Florida 67 - Seattle 51	7
Charleston Southern 82 - Unranked 60		Charleston Southern 101 - Unranked 54
Cincinnati 89 - Lipscomb 54	0.998	Cincinnati 91 - Lipscomb 68	12
Columbia 75 - Colgate 63	0.863	Columbia 81 - Colgate 78	9
Creighton 90 - Loyola MD 56	0.998	Creighton 82 - Loyola MD 52	4
Dartmouth 74 - Marist 68	0.697	Dartmouth 69 - Marist 75	12
Davidson 80 - Charlotte 71	0.744	Davidson 79 - Charlotte 57	-13
Detroit 75 - Manhattan 70	0.67	Detroit 81 - Manhattan 84	8
Drake 83 - Unranked 59		Drake 69 - Unranked 74
Duke 94 - Appalachian State 59	0.997	Duke 93 - Appalachian State 58	0
East Tennessee State 80 - South Dakota State 66	0.815	East Tennessee State 71 - South Dakota State 59	2
Eastern Illinois 63 - South Alabama 71	0.776	Eastern Illinois 72 - South Alabama 62	-18
Eastern Kentucky 92 - Unranked 57		Eastern Kentucky 92 - Unranked 64
Eastern Michigan 78 - Omaha 73	0.69	Eastern Michigan 94 - Omaha 77	-12
Eastern Washington 74 - Denver 71	0.608	Eastern Washington 85 - Denver 80	-2
Elon 78 - Cal Poly 69	0.832	Elon 72 - Cal Poly 66	3
Evansville 68 - UNC Wilmington 70	0.55	Evansville 62 - UNC Wilmington 65	1
Fairfield 79 - Army 64	0.904	Fairfield 75 - Army 74	14
Florida AM 68 - Stetson 75	0.698	Florida AM 90 - Stetson 98	1
Fordham 71 - Texas Arlington 68	0.585	Fordham 63 - Texas Arlington 67	7
George Mason 73 - James Madison 69	0.625	George Mason 80 - James Madison 77	1
George Washington 74 - Penn State 68	0.695	George Washington 68 - Penn State 74	12
Georgia Tech 77 - Tulane 62	0.925	Georgia Tech 82 - Tulane 68	1
Grambling State 65 - Savannah State 71	0.702	Grambling State 110 - Savannah State 104	-12
Green Bay 71 - Central Michigan 73	0.545	Green Bay 77 - Central Michigan 89	10
Hampton 65 - Stony Brook 73	0.762	Hampton 66 - Stony Brook 76	2
Houston 85 - Cornell 60	0.955	Houston 83 - Cornell 53	-5
Incarnate Word 76 - Rice 72	0.602	Incarnate Word 79 - Rice 87	12
Iona 72 - Nevada 79	0.732	Iona 75 - Nevada 73	-9
IPFW 85 - Mississippi Valley State 63	0.973	IPFW 79 - Mississippi Valley State 54	-3
Jackson State 68 - Western Carolina 67	0.501	Jackson State 47 - Western Carolina 58	12
Kennesaw St 63 - Chattanooga 76	0.844	Kennesaw St 71 - Chattanooga 88	4
Marquette 87 - Houston Baptist 63	0.97	Marquette 101 - Houston Baptist 79	2
Maryland 72 - Kansas State 71	0.57	Maryland 69 - Kansas State 68	0
Massachusetts 77 - Harvard 69	0.77	Massachusetts 70 - Harvard 66	4
Mcneese State 86 - Unranked 64		Mcneese State 80 - Unranked 78
Memphis 74 - Iowa 78	0.634	Memphis 100 - Iowa 92	-12
Miami OH 74 - Western Illinois 61	0.889	Miami OH 81 - Western Illinois 72	4
Michigan 82 - Mt St Marys 55	0.965	Michigan 64 - Mt St Marys 47	10
Middle Tennessee 72 - Toledo 74	0.552	Middle Tennessee 73 - Toledo 70	-5
Missouri 84 - Northwestern State 64	0.94	Missouri 84 - Northwestern State 60	-4
Monmouth 77 - South Carolina State 58	0.945	Monmouth 86 - South Carolina State 62	-5
Montana State 78 - Delaware State 58	0.956	Montana State 91 - Delaware State 66	-5
Murray State 88 - Alabama AM 56	0.986	Murray State 91 - Alabama AM 54	-5
Navy 67 - Pennsylvania 71	0.659	Navy 70 - Pennsylvania 68	-6
NC State 78 - Loyola Ill 69	0.772	NC State 79 - Loyola Ill 77	7
Nevada Las Vegas 75 - Western Kentucky 66	0.78	Nevada Las Vegas 71 - Western Kentucky 61	-1
North Carolina AT 63 - Jacksonville 71	0.731	North Carolina AT 49 - Jacksonville 66	9
Northern Arizona 65 - Jacksonville State 70	0.649	Northern Arizona 63 - Jacksonville State 76	8
Northern Illinois 77 - Illinois Chicago 64	0.867	Northern Illinois 92 - Illinois Chicago 81	2
Northern Kentucky 68 - North Carolina Central 66	0.579	Northern Kentucky 74 - North Carolina Central 82	10
Notre Dame 91 - Chicago State 55	0.998	Notre Dame 91 - Chicago State 60	5
Providence 60 - Virginia 77	0.931	Providence 52 - Virginia 63	-6
Purdue 87 - NJ Tech 64	0.965	Purdue 79 - NJ Tech 68	12
Radford 64 - Georgia Southern 73	0.712	Radford 64 - Georgia Southern 65	-8
Richmond 73 - Boston College 70	0.621	Richmond 67 - Boston College 54	-10
Robert Morris 66 - Towson 73	0.747	Robert Morris 67 - Towson 66	-8
Samford 77 - Bethune Cookman 61	0.867	Samford 93 - Bethune Cookman 65	-12
San Diego 66 - New Mexico State 71	0.652	San Diego 51 - New Mexico State 56	0
San Francisco 78 - Sacramento State 65	0.864	San Francisco 77 - Sacramento State 59	-5
SIU Edwardsville 70 - IUPUI 74	0.615	SIU Edwardsville 61 - IUPUI 58	-7
Southern Utah 82 - Unranked 64		Southern Utah 101 - Unranked 56
Syracuse 77 - South Carolina 69	0.76	Syracuse 50 - South Carolina 64	22
Tennessee State 89 - Unranked 51		Tennessee State 96 - Unranked 64
Texas Christian 75 - Washington 76	0.534	Texas Christian 93 - Washington 80	-14
Texas Pan American 64 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 72	0.768	Texas Pan American 71 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 61	-18
UC Davis 69 - Oakland 79	0.807	UC Davis 66 - Oakland 79	3
UC Irvine 73 - Milwaukee 61	0.828	UC Irvine 37 - Milwaukee 54	29
UMass Lowell 76 - LIU Brooklyn 74	0.583	UMass Lowell 78 - LIU Brooklyn 82	6
Unranked 65 - Maine 82		Unranked 45 - Maine 96
Vermont 68 - Yale 76	0.755	Vermont 67 - Yale 65	-10
Virginia Military Institute 78 - Campbell 63	0.88	Virginia Military Institute 53 - Campbell 67	29
Wagner 69 - Rider 64	0.663	Wagner 67 - Rider 70	8
Weber State 67 - Buffalo 70	0.63	Weber State 72 - Buffalo 74	-1
Western Michigan 77 - Central Arkansas 68	0.749	Western Michigan 80 - Central Arkansas 63	-8
William and Mary 78 - Liberty 62	0.862	William and Mary 79 - Liberty 70	7
Wright State 77 - North Dakota 66	0.772	Wright State 83 - North Dakota 79	7
Xavier 77 - Northern Iowa 70	0.742	Xavier 64 - Northern Iowa 42	-15
Youngstown State 74 - Canisius 73	0.525	Youngstown State 84 - Canisius 90	7

GAMES OF 11-27

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 87 - Unranked 56		Abilene Christian 71 - Unranked 55
Albany 77 - Siena 70	0.75	Albany 81 - Siena 72	-2
Arkansas State 74 - Lehigh 73	0.519	Arkansas State 97 - Lehigh 89	-7
California 88 - Southeast Louisiana 57	0.993	California 67 - Southeast Louisiana 55	19
College of Charleston 75 - South Carolina Upstate 58	0.908	College of Charleston 72 - South Carolina Upstate 60	5
Colorado 83 - Wofford 63	0.941	Colorado 75 - Wofford 60	5
Colorado State 82 - Alcorn State 57	0.992	Colorado State 80 - Alcorn State 58	3
Dayton 76 - New Mexico 70	0.699	Dayton 64 - New Mexico 57	-1
Delaware 84 - Unranked 57		Delaware 84 - Unranked 51
Drexel 73 - La Salle 71	0.564	Drexel 78 - La Salle 89	13
Duquesne 74 - Cleveland State 67	0.735	Duquesne 78 - Cleveland State 71	0
Eastern Washington 72 - San Francisco 76	0.65	Eastern Washington 96 - San Francisco 90	-10
Evansville 72 - Middle Tennessee 68	0.642	Evansville 55 - Middle Tennessee 66	15
Florida 71 - Miami 72	0.518	Florida 65 - Miami 56	-10
Florida International 67 - Binghamton 63	0.613	Florida International 74 - Binghamton 57	-13
Georgetown 87 - Howard 58	0.977	Georgetown 85 - Howard 72	16
Gonzaga 78 - Iowa State 76	0.548	Gonzaga 73 - Iowa State 71	0
Hawaii 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54	0.968	Hawaii 64 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 44	4
Holy Cross 64 - Monmouth 72	0.767	Holy Cross 77 - Monmouth 80	-5
Illinois State 92 - Unranked 49		Illinois State 81 - Unranked 67
Indiana 100 - Mississippi Valley State 56	0.999	Indiana 85 - Mississippi Valley State 52	11
Louisiana Tech 81 - Maryland Eastern Shore 61	0.971	Louisiana Tech 74 - Maryland Eastern Shore 53	-1
Missouri State 71 - North Dakota State 70	0.516	Missouri State 64 - North Dakota State 50	-13
Nebraska 73 - Virginia Tech 72	0.511	Nebraska 53 - Virginia Tech 66	14
North Dakota 68 - Cal State Bakersfield 76	0.734	North Dakota 57 - Cal State Bakersfield 55	-10
North Texas 72 - Hartford 65	0.724	North Texas 81 - Hartford 78	4
Northeastern 73 - Kent State 69	0.638	Northeastern 73 - Kent State 70	1
Pepperdine 83 - Portland State 64	0.968	Pepperdine 85 - Portland State 91	25
Portland 78 - Cal State Northridge 73	0.681	Portland 96 - Cal State Northridge 78	-13
Quinnipiac 62 - Indiana State 80	0.904	Quinnipiac 80 - Indiana State 77	-21
Sacramento State 67 - Denver 73	0.682	Sacramento State 61 - Denver 72	5
Saint Marys 81 - Alabama Birmingham 64	0.92	Saint Marys 76 - Alabama Birmingham 63	4
Samford 76 - Nicholls State 66	0.784	Samford 103 - Nicholls State 106	13
Seton Hall 71 - Stanford 72	0.51	Seton Hall 52 - Stanford 66	13
South Dakota 76 - Montana 69	0.71	South Dakota 72 - Montana 67	2
South Dakota State 73 - Milwaukee 64	0.736	South Dakota State 81 - Milwaukee 58	-14
Southern California 81 - UC Santa Barbara 59	0.965	Southern California 96 - UC Santa Barbara 72	-2
UC Irvine 70 - East Tennessee State 72	0.579	UC Irvine 66 - East Tennessee State 72	4
UCLA 79 - Texas AM 76	0.588	UCLA 74 - Texas AM 67	-4
UL Lafayette 75 - Texas Southern 70	0.676	UL Lafayette 84 - Texas Southern 73	-6
UNC Wilmington 74 - Toledo 70	0.63	UNC Wilmington 102 - Toledo 77	-21
Valparaiso 74 - Ball State 64	0.769	Valparaiso 79 - Ball State 73	4
Washington State 82 - San Jose State 60	0.964	Washington State 76 - San Jose State 88	34
Winthrop 74 - New Hampshire 63	0.772	Winthrop 60 - New Hampshire 65	16
Wisconsin 84 - Prairie View 52	0.991	Wisconsin 95 - Prairie View 50	-13
Wright State 76 - North Florida 68	0.765	Wright State 75 - North Florida 67	0

Number of DI Games: 387
Number Correct: 289 = 74.6%
Expected Number Correct: 294.808 = 76.1%
Average Error: 9.18
Average Signed Error: 1.14

SYSTEM RANKINGS

WEEK 4 -- 11-28 to 12-4

GAMES OF 11-28

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arizona State 62 - Kentucky 75	0.789	Arizona State 69 - Kentucky 115	33
Arkansas 79 - Mt St Marys 58	0.927	Arkansas 89 - Mt St Marys 76	8
Brown 65 - Bryant 61	0.62	Brown 91 - Bryant 90	3
Campbell 75 - Unranked 52		Campbell 92 - Unranked 60
Charlotte 73 - Appalachian State 56	0.871	Charlotte 80 - Appalachian State 72	9
Coppin State 81 - Unranked 59		Coppin State 73 - Unranked 76
Florida State 71 - Minnesota 70	0.517	Florida State 75 - Minnesota 67	-7
Grambling State 59 - Unranked 61		Grambling State 102 - Unranked 56
Grand Canyon 72 - SIU Edwardsville 58	0.88	Grand Canyon 64 - SIU Edwardsville 76	26
IPFW 79 - Unranked 52		IPFW 107 - Unranked 59
Longwood 60 - Dartmouth 69	0.757	Longwood 86 - Dartmouth 80	-15
Mississippi State 72 - Northwestern State 70	0.541	Mississippi State 65 - Northwestern State 59	-4
Missouri 66 - North Carolina Central 59	0.699	Missouri 52 - North Carolina Central 62	17
Montana State 72 - Unranked 55		Montana State 93 - Unranked 73
Morgan State 61 - High Point 62	0.561	Morgan State 61 - High Point 62	0
Northwestern 71 - Wake Forest 64	0.656	Northwestern 65 - Wake Forest 58	0
Oral Roberts 64 - Tulsa 66	0.574	Oral Roberts 65 - Tulsa 79	12
Oregon 76 - Boise State 69	0.706	Oregon 68 - Boise State 63	2
Oregon State 89 - Unranked 46		Oregon State 84 - Unranked 59
Saint Peters 63 - Boston 59	0.628	Saint Peters 80 - Boston 67	-9
San Diego State 68 - Savannah State 41	0.982	San Diego State 100 - Savannah State 67	-6
South Florida 75 - Kennesaw St 51	0.954	South Florida 71 - Kennesaw St 69	22
Tennessee Tech 79 - Unranked 52		Tennessee Tech 80 - Unranked 47
The Citadel 58 - Presbyterian 53	0.656	The Citadel 97 - Presbyterian 83	-9
UL Monroe 54 - Stephen F Austin 64	0.795	UL Monroe 77 - Stephen F Austin 72	-15
UMKC 61 - SE Missouri State 69	0.709	UMKC 86 - SE Missouri State 75	-19
Utah 67 - Butler 59	0.695	Utah 59 - Butler 68	17
West Virginia 70 - Manhattan 64	0.66	West Virginia 108 - Manhattan 61	-41

GAMES OF 11-29

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 76 - Charleston Southern 59	0.89	Alabama 76 - Charleston Southern 46	-13
Alabama Birmingham 71 - Alabama AM 52	0.946	Alabama Birmingham 75 - Alabama AM 45	-11
Alabama State 63 - Jacksonville State 56	0.745	Alabama State 69 - Jacksonville State 72	10
American 62 - Western Illinois 51	0.769	American 57 - Western Illinois 50	4
Auburn 65 - South Carolina Upstate 64	0.532	Auburn 90 - South Carolina Upstate 83	-6
Ball State 76 - Unranked 53		Ball State 92 - Unranked 52
Belmont 75 - Lipscomb 57	0.886	Belmont 64 - Lipscomb 62	16
Bowling Green 82 - Unranked 47		Bowling Green 86 - Unranked 60
Central Arkansas 62 - Arkansas Little Rock 73	0.823	Central Arkansas 87 - Arkansas Little Rock 89	-9
Central Michigan 68 - William and Mary 64	0.627	Central Michigan 91 - William and Mary 81	-6
Coastal Carolina 68 - Chattanooga 57	0.768	Coastal Carolina 52 - Chattanooga 68	27
Colgate 80 - Unranked 51		Colgate 91 - Unranked 68
Columbia 65 - Hofstra 61	0.61	Columbia 86 - Hofstra 88	6
Creighton 70 - Buffalo 67	0.598	Creighton 93 - Buffalo 72	-18
Duke 75 - Michigan State 70	0.623	Duke 78 - Michigan State 69	-4
East Carolina 70 - Hampton 64	0.684	East Carolina 68 - Hampton 48	-14
Eastern Illinois 60 - Bradley 63	0.583	Eastern Illinois 83 - Bradley 87	1
Florida Gulf Coast 79 - Unranked 47		Florida Gulf Coast 120 - Unranked 60
Gardner Webb 79 - Unranked 50		Gardner Webb 102 - Unranked 54
Harvard 68 - George Washington 59	0.744	Harvard 74 - George Washington 77	12
Idaho 75 - San Jose State 58	0.936	Idaho 49 - San Jose State 58	26
Idaho State 63 - Lamar 57	0.673	Idaho State 77 - Lamar 60	-11
Illinois 72 - NC State 69	0.59	Illinois 88 - NC State 74	-11
Kansas 77 - Long Beach State 59	0.904	Kansas 91 - Long Beach State 61	-12
Liberty 72 - Unranked 56		Liberty 62 - Unranked 48
Louisiana State 83 - Houston 60	0.961	Louisiana State 84 - Houston 65	4
Marist 62 - UMass Lowell 52	0.758	Marist 81 - UMass Lowell 69	-2
Maryland 71 - Pittsburgh 66	0.648	Maryland 59 - Pittsburgh 73	19
Mercer 66 - Davidson 69	0.557	Mercer 57 - Davidson 78	18
Nevada 65 - Pacific 66	0.506	Nevada 77 - Pacific 67	-11
New Orleans 58 - Tulane 67	0.74	New Orleans 74 - Tulane 59	-24
Notre Dame 71 - Iowa 72	0.525	Notre Dame 92 - Iowa 78	-15
Oklahoma 81 - Northern Colorado 56	0.974	Oklahoma 87 - Northern Colorado 66	4
Penn State 72 - Georgia Tech 64	0.728	Penn State 67 - Georgia Tech 60	1
Pennsylvania 56 - Villanova 79	0.942	Pennsylvania 57 - Villanova 82	2
Saint Johns 77 - Delaware State 56	0.927	Saint Johns 72 - Delaware State 79	28
Saint Louis 77 - Samford 50	0.984	Saint Louis 64 - Samford 68	31
Southern 73 - Unranked 47		Southern 91 - Unranked 79
Southern Illinois 59 - Murray State 70	0.79	Southern Illinois 89 - Murray State 85	-15
Tennessee Martin 63 - Florida Atlantic 65	0.555	Tennessee Martin 82 - Florida Atlantic 81	-3
Texas 80 - Texas Arlington 58	0.944	Texas 61 - Texas Arlington 72	33
Texas AM CC 60 - Texas Pan American 53	0.721	Texas AM CC 84 - Texas Pan American 68	-9
Texas State 62 - Mcneese State 58	0.611	Texas State 80 - Mcneese State 68	-8
UNC Asheville 80 - Unranked 54		UNC Asheville 68 - Unranked 50
UNC Greensboro 64 - North Carolina AT 65	0.536	UNC Greensboro 86 - North Carolina AT 66	-21
Unranked 45 - Wofford 76		Unranked 76 - Wofford 79
Valparaiso 68 - Rhode Island 59	0.745	Valparaiso 65 - Rhode Island 62	6
Vanderbilt 82 - Tennessee State 48	0.998	Vanderbilt 83 - Tennessee State 59	10
Virginia Commonwealth 75 - Princeton 60	0.852	Virginia Commonwealth 81 - Princeton 70	4
Wichita State 92 - Unranked 40		Wichita State 87 - Unranked 57
Wisconsin 77 - Syracuse 61	0.883	Wisconsin 77 - Syracuse 60	-1
Xavier 68 - North Dakota State 60	0.732	Xavier 85 - North Dakota State 55	-22

GAMES OF 11-30

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 84 - Unranked 46		Akron 95 - Unranked 41
Albany 65 - Holy Cross 56	0.772	Albany 49 - Holy Cross 55	15
Arizona 84 - Texas Southern 49	0.99	Arizona 85 - Texas Southern 63	13
Arkansas State 56 - Cleveland State 69	0.789	Arkansas State 78 - Cleveland State 51	-40
Army 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 60	0.837	Army 97 - Fairleigh Dickinson 78	-7
Austin Peay 62 - IPFW 67	0.617	Austin Peay 99 - IPFW 103	-1
Baylor 71 - Sam Houston State 52	0.924	Baylor 79 - Sam Houston State 45	-15
Binghamton 71 - Unranked 57		Binghamton 91 - Unranked 71
Boise State 71 - Southern Methodist 62	0.782	Boise State 71 - Southern Methodist 62	0
Brigham Young 76 - Utah State 66	0.793	Brigham Young 77 - Utah State 63	-4
Brown 62 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 64	0.578	Brown 81 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 71	-12
Bryant 61 - Yale 63	0.555	Bryant 79 - Yale 70	-11
Bucknell 59 - Richmond 66	0.697	Bucknell 73 - Richmond 68	-12
Cal State Bakersfield 76 - Unranked 53		Cal State Bakersfield 79 - Unranked 46
Cal State Fullerton 76 - Omaha 66	0.81	Cal State Fullerton 73 - Omaha 83	20
California 69 - Louisiana Tech 67	0.562	California 68 - Louisiana Tech 59	-7
Central Florida 72 - Stetson 63	0.768	Central Florida 81 - Stetson 45	-27
Charlotte 69 - James Madison 63	0.683	Charlotte 65 - James Madison 56	-3
Clemson 65 - Nebraska 61	0.607	Clemson 60 - Nebraska 58	2
Coastal Carolina 80 - Unranked 47		Coastal Carolina 88 - Unranked 59
Colorado 71 - Colorado State 70	0.511	Colorado 58 - Colorado State 72	15
Connecticut 79 - Boston 52	0.988	Connecticut 51 - Boston 49	25
Cornell 64 - Northeastern 65	0.517	Cornell 80 - Northeastern 77	-4
DePaul 74 - Drake 73	0.528	DePaul 77 - Drake 75	-1
Detroit 66 - Eastern Michigan 57	0.739	Detroit 61 - Eastern Michigan 87	35
Duquesne 78 - UMBC 56	0.939	Duquesne 72 - UMBC 81	31
Eastern Kentucky 64 - Western Kentucky 62	0.582	Eastern Kentucky 78 - Western Kentucky 59	-17
Elon 63 - Florida International 66	0.561	Elon 84 - Florida International 81	-6
Evansville 88 - Unranked 50		Evansville 83 - Unranked 39
Florida AM 63 - Kennesaw St 59	0.61	Florida AM 74 - Kennesaw St 76	6
Fordham 72 - Sacred Heart 67	0.647	Fordham 70 - Sacred Heart 71	6
Fresno State 84 - Unranked 50		Fresno State 80 - Unranked 67
Georgetown 88 - Coppin State 53	0.994	Georgetown 96 - Coppin State 44	-17
Georgia 88 - Unranked 45		Georgia 86 - Unranked 72
Georgia State 70 - Wright State 53	0.876	Georgia State 81 - Wright State 74	10
Hartford 69 - LIU Brooklyn 58	0.791	Hartford 68 - LIU Brooklyn 75	18
Illinois Chicago 67 - Chicago State 55	0.799	Illinois Chicago 74 - Chicago State 58	-4
Illinois State 79 - IUPUI 52	0.982	Illinois State 77 - IUPUI 63	13
Indiana 77 - North Carolina 75	0.57	Indiana 76 - North Carolina 67	-7
Indiana State 71 - Northern Illinois 56	0.879	Indiana State 63 - Northern Illinois 52	4
Kansas State 68 - Green Bay 61	0.687	Kansas State 80 - Green Bay 61	-12
La Salle 71 - Lehigh 52	0.926	La Salle 89 - Lehigh 81	11
Lafayette 65 - Drexel 63	0.558	Lafayette 70 - Drexel 74	6
Louisville 78 - Purdue 61	0.897	Louisville 71 - Purdue 64	10
Loyola Ill 64 - Norfolk State 63	0.533	Loyola Ill 75 - Norfolk State 62	-12
Maine 63 - Central Connecticut State 65	0.578	Maine 61 - Central Connecticut State 82	19
Marquette 75 - Western Carolina 59	0.951	Marquette 90 - Western Carolina 44	-30
Marshall 67 - Ohio 66	0.502	Marshall 98 - Ohio 88	-9
Massachusetts 76 - Wagner 60	0.882	Massachusetts 62 - Wagner 55	9
Memphis 77 - Jackson State 47	0.976	Memphis 84 - Jackson State 69	15
Miami 76 - Rutgers 61	0.859	Miami 73 - Rutgers 61	3
Miami OH 78 - Grambling State 41	0.993	Miami OH 78 - Grambling State 76	35
Michigan 81 - Virginia Tech 59	0.975	Michigan 70 - Virginia Tech 73	25
Milwaukee 76 - Jacksonville 57	0.903	Milwaukee 72 - Jacksonville 67	14
Mississippi 73 - Middle Tennessee 61	0.804	Mississippi 62 - Middle Tennessee 77	27
Morehead State 68 - Northern Kentucky 55	0.787	Morehead State 79 - Northern Kentucky 84	18
New Mexico 82 - Abilene Christian 37	0.998	New Mexico 64 - Abilene Christian 55	36
New Mexico State 74 - Air Force 61	0.81	New Mexico State 78 - Air Force 70	5
NJ Tech 64 - Saint Francis Penn 53	0.795	NJ Tech 83 - Saint Francis Penn 70	-2
North Texas 83 - Unranked 51		North Texas 73 - Unranked 45
Northern Iowa 73 - George Mason 60	0.871	Northern Iowa 50 - George Mason 54	17
Oklahoma State 89 - Unranked 43		Oklahoma State 101 - Unranked 85
Old Dominion 66 - Dartmouth 58	0.72	Old Dominion 59 - Dartmouth 47	-4
Oregon 96 - Unranked 47		Oregon 93 - Unranked 54
Providence 80 - New Hampshire 55	0.982	Providence 76 - New Hampshire 62	11
Radford 74 - Virginia Military Institute 69	0.64	Radford 74 - Virginia Military Institute 67	-2
Rice 66 - Houston Baptist 55	0.781	Rice 90 - Houston Baptist 77	-2
Robert Morris 73 - Youngstown State 59	0.853	Robert Morris 74 - Youngstown State 75	15
Saint Bonaventure 72 - Siena 57	0.876	Saint Bonaventure 81 - Siena 74	8
Saint Josephs 67 - Temple 69	0.569	Saint Josephs 72 - Temple 78	4
San Diego 72 - Southern California 60	0.835	San Diego 55 - Southern California 76	33
San Francisco 77 - Alcorn State 50	0.964	San Francisco 78 - Alcorn State 65	14
Santa Clara 67 - UC Irvine 66	0.518	Santa Clara 55 - UC Irvine 58	4
South Carolina State 69 - Unranked 55		South Carolina State 90 - Unranked 85
South Dakota State 88 - Unranked 44		South Dakota State 90 - Unranked 58
Southeast Louisiana 59 - Maryland Eastern Shore 60	0.511	Southeast Louisiana 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 75	-11
Southern Miss 77 - South Alabama 58	0.923	Southern Miss 55 - South Alabama 78	42
Southern Utah 56 - Nevada Las Vegas 73	0.911	Southern Utah 81 - Nevada Las Vegas 89	-9
Stanford 74 - Saint Marys 64	0.762	Stanford 51 - Saint Marys 66	25
Stony Brook 70 - Loyola MD 52	0.927	Stony Brook 70 - Loyola MD 71	19
Texas Christian 65 - Washington 69	0.61	Texas Christian 86 - Washington 71	-19
Texas Tech 69 - Incarnate Word 64	0.621	Texas Tech 69 - Incarnate Word 48	-16
Towson 77 - Unranked 51		Towson 99 - Unranked 37
UCLA 77 - UC Riverside 54	0.958	UCLA 98 - UC Riverside 56	-19
UMKC 63 - South Dakota 66	0.58	UMKC 84 - South Dakota 82	-5
Virginia 66 - Ohio State 67	0.513	Virginia 63 - Ohio State 61	-3
Washington State 73 - Utah Valley 49	0.957	Washington State 83 - Utah Valley 76	17
Western Michigan 76 - UNC Wilmington 55	0.942	Western Michigan 92 - UNC Wilmington 97	26
Winthrop 64 - Furman 50	0.815	Winthrop 58 - Furman 57	13
Wyoming 61 - Denver 54	0.683	Wyoming 82 - Denver 70	-5

GAMES OF 12-1

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arkansas 71 - Stephen F Austin 64	0.712	Arkansas 78 - Stephen F Austin 62	-9
Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 - Tennessee Martin 59	0.661	Arkansas Pine Bluff 68 - Tennessee Martin 73	11
Cal Poly 69 - Texas San Antonio 59	0.77	Cal Poly 59 - Texas San Antonio 47	-2
College of Charleston 63 - Navy 53	0.75	College of Charleston 70 - Navy 64	4
Gonzaga 87 - Mississippi Valley State 47	0.996	Gonzaga 97 - Mississippi Valley State 63	6
Iowa State 75 - Cincinnati 68	0.693	Iowa State 54 - Cincinnati 55	8
Lipscomb 68 - Tennessee Tech 62	0.643	Lipscomb 104 - Tennessee Tech 85	-13
Mississippi State 65 - Oregon State 71	0.657	Mississippi State 74 - Oregon State 57	-23
North Carolina Central 79 - Unranked 43		North Carolina Central 92 - Unranked 55
North Florida 58 - Florida 70	0.794	North Florida 60 - Florida 91	19
Northwestern State 89 - Unranked 53		Northwestern State 88 - Unranked 74
Oakland 67 - Oral Roberts 72	0.655	Oakland 92 - Oral Roberts 64	-33
Pacific 63 - Sacramento State 62	0.545	Pacific 74 - Sacramento State 58	-15
Presbyterian 70 - Unranked 54		Presbyterian 107 - Unranked 63
Quinnipiac 69 - Monmouth 55	0.869	Quinnipiac 72 - Monmouth 91	33
Rider 67 - Fairfield 53	0.885	Rider 67 - Fairfield 76	23
Savannah State 51 - Georgia Southern 53	0.56	Savannah State 75 - Georgia Southern 94	17
SE Missouri State 80 - Central Arkansas 56	0.966	SE Missouri State 87 - Central Arkansas 63	0
Seattle 79 - Unranked 51		Seattle 82 - Unranked 65
Seton Hall 69 - Columbia 59	0.751	Seton Hall 95 - Columbia 71	-14
South Carolina 64 - Vermont 63	0.514	South Carolina 68 - Vermont 50	-17
Texas State 77 - Unranked 52		Texas State 75 - Unranked 44
Troy 63 - South Florida 70	0.714	Troy 74 - South Florida 80	-1
UC Santa Barbara 86 - Unranked 45		UC Santa Barbara 75 - Unranked 51
UL Lafayette 74 - Nicholls State 53	0.93	UL Lafayette 101 - Nicholls State 69	-11
Unranked 58 - East Tennessee State 71		Unranked 80 - East Tennessee State 85
Utah 78 - Montana State 45	0.979	Utah 92 - Montana State 84	25

GAMES OF 12-2

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Delaware 73 - Delaware State 62	0.796	Delaware 64 - Delaware State 49	-4
Indiana 82 - SIU Edwardsville 55	0.98	Indiana 83 - SIU Edwardsville 60	4
Kent State 81 - Grambling State 37	0.998	Kent State 86 - Grambling State 57	15
Manhattan 69 - Canisius 60	0.741	Manhattan 76 - Canisius 77	10
Marist 64 - Niagara 65	0.524	Marist 72 - Niagara 66	-7
North Carolina AT 57 - North Dakota State 67	0.768	North Carolina AT 67 - North Dakota State 85	8
Pittsburgh 77 - Duquesne 63	0.824	Pittsburgh 55 - Duquesne 64	23
Saint Peters 63 - Iona 71	0.768	Saint Peters 65 - Iona 79	6
San Francisco 76 - Lamar 54	0.943	San Francisco 82 - Lamar 63	3
South Carolina Upstate 66 - Campbell 53	0.806	South Carolina Upstate 80 - Campbell 73	6
Southern Methodist 75 - Cal State Bakersfield 52	0.98	Southern Methodist 49 - Cal State Bakersfield 43	17
Texas 72 - Alabama 66	0.704	Texas 77 - Alabama 68	-3
The Citadel 54 - Colgate 62	0.731	The Citadel 108 - Colgate 101	-15
Tulane 61 - Saint Johns 72	0.787	Tulane 75 - Saint Johns 95	9

GAMES OF 12-3

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 69 - Missouri State 61	0.727	Air Force 83 - Missouri State 70	-5
Alabama AM 60 - Tennessee Tech 62	0.552	Alabama AM 74 - Tennessee Tech 79	3
Alabama Birmingham 73 - Auburn 64	0.74	Alabama Birmingham 70 - Auburn 74	13
Appalachian State 62 - Western Carolina 66	0.598	Appalachian State 53 - Western Carolina 58	1
Arizona 73 - Gonzaga 64	0.719	Arizona 62 - Gonzaga 69	16
Arizona State 71 - Nevada Las Vegas 68	0.595	Arizona State 97 - Nevada Las Vegas 73	-21
Arkansas 85 - Austin Peay 55	0.985	Arkansas 99 - Austin Peay 62	-7
Arkansas Little Rock 59 - Tulsa 73	0.875	Arkansas Little Rock 72 - Tulsa 62	-24
Army 63 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 67	0.625	Army 76 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 56	-24
Ball State 66 - IUPUI 58	0.76	Ball State 62 - IUPUI 73	19
Baylor 74 - Xavier 63	0.771	Baylor 76 - Xavier 61	-4
Boston College 73 - Dartmouth 61	0.827	Boston College 88 - Dartmouth 70	-6
Bradley 71 - Nevada 60	0.793	Bradley 69 - Nevada 91	33
Butler 83 - Central Arkansas 49	0.995	Butler 82 - Central Arkansas 58	10
Cal Poly 66 - Texas AM CC 47	0.906	Cal Poly 82 - Texas AM CC 70	7
Cal State Fullerton 68 - Pacific 64	0.645	Cal State Fullerton 78 - Pacific 77	3
Cal State Northridge 66 - Idaho State 57	0.764	Cal State Northridge 79 - Idaho State 76	6
California 79 - Alcorn State 48	0.984	California 83 - Alcorn State 59	7
Central Connecticut State 62 - Brown 65	0.578	Central Connecticut State 58 - Brown 75	14
Central Michigan 69 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 58	0.755	Central Michigan 82 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 59	-12
Charleston Southern 78 - Abilene Christian 45	0.983	Charleston Southern 82 - Abilene Christian 85	36
Charlotte 67 - Oregon State 70	0.608	Charlotte 69 - Oregon State 66	-6
Chattanooga 62 - UL Monroe 61	0.51	Chattanooga 79 - UL Monroe 52	-26
Cleveland State 70 - Bethune Cookman 47	0.96	Cleveland State 73 - Bethune Cookman 62	12
Coastal Carolina 69 - UNC Asheville 58	0.773	Coastal Carolina 77 - UNC Asheville 79	13
Colgate 65 - Campbell 60	0.656	Colgate 71 - Campbell 73	7
Colorado State 67 - Wichita State 71	0.601	Colorado State 67 - Wichita State 82	11
Creighton 68 - Akron 62	0.692	Creighton 82 - Akron 70	-6
Dayton 73 - Winthrop 51	0.932	Dayton 83 - Winthrop 67	6
Drake 71 - Fresno State 66	0.639	Drake 76 - Fresno State 78	7
Duke 93 - Maine 48	0.998	Duke 94 - Maine 55	6
East Carolina 64 - North Carolina Central 63	0.527	East Carolina 69 - North Carolina Central 56	-12
Eastern Kentucky 70 - Marshall 54	0.857	Eastern Kentucky 89 - Marshall 80	7
Evansville 68 - Boise State 71	0.603	Evansville 72 - Boise State 67	-8
Florida AM 53 - Southern 61	0.706	Florida AM 71 - Southern 83	4
Florida Atlantic 64 - Hofstra 65	0.513	Florida Atlantic 80 - Hofstra 88	7
Furman 57 - Navy 55	0.531	Furman 79 - Navy 46	-31
George Mason 67 - Mercer 62	0.628	George Mason 79 - Mercer 68	-6
George Washington 71 - South Florida 59	0.806	George Washington 68 - South Florida 67	11
Grand Canyon 61 - Louisville 76	0.914	Grand Canyon 70 - Louisville 79	-6
Hampton 67 - William and Mary 62	0.633	Hampton 79 - William and Mary 69	-5
Harvard 80 - Fordham 55	0.97	Harvard 64 - Fordham 52	13
High Point 58 - Drexel 60	0.555	High Point 72 - Drexel 78	4
Houston 69 - Prairie View 61	0.694	Houston 105 - Prairie View 61	-36
Howard 52 - American 59	0.703	Howard 70 - American 54	-23
Idaho 68 - UC Davis 69	0.528	Idaho 68 - UC Davis 66	-3
Illinois State 67 - New Mexico 65	0.586	Illinois State 79 - New Mexico 74	-3
Incarnate Word 72 - LIU Brooklyn 63	0.748	Incarnate Word 90 - LIU Brooklyn 79	-2
Iowa 90 - Omaha 56	0.987	Iowa 89 - Omaha 98	43
IPFW 65 - Miami OH 64	0.52	IPFW 87 - Miami OH 71	-15
Kansas 77 - Stanford 68	0.749	Kansas 89 - Stanford 74	-6
Kentucky 75 - UCLA 61	0.846	Kentucky 92 - UCLA 97	19
La Salle 70 - Bucknell 55	0.887	La Salle 83 - Bucknell 73	5
Lehigh 59 - Robert Morris 64	0.635	Lehigh 64 - Robert Morris 58	-11
Lipscomb 72 - Tennessee State 55	0.924	Lipscomb 71 - Tennessee State 72	18
Longwood 59 - James Madison 71	0.805	Longwood 59 - James Madison 71	0
Louisiana Tech 78 - Southeast Louisiana 49	0.98	Louisiana Tech 88 - Southeast Louisiana 59	0
Loyola Ill 57 - San Diego State 69	0.847	Loyola Ill 65 - San Diego State 59	-18
Loyola MD 62 - Mt St Marys 61	0.542	Loyola MD 64 - Mt St Marys 57	-6
Maryland 70 - Oklahoma State 65	0.639	Maryland 71 - Oklahoma State 70	4
Massachusetts 82 - Central Florida 64	0.91	Massachusetts 62 - Central Florida 65	21
Mcneese State 61 - UL Lafayette 65	0.614	Mcneese State 72 - UL Lafayette 92	16
Miami 66 - Wofford 56	0.777	Miami 74 - Wofford 57	-7
Michigan 84 - Kennesaw St 48	0.995	Michigan 82 - Kennesaw St 55	9
Michigan State 79 - Oral Roberts 56	0.984	Michigan State 80 - Oral Roberts 76	19
Minnesota 70 - Vanderbilt 71	0.534	Minnesota 56 - Vanderbilt 52	-5
Mississippi 71 - Memphis 69	0.567	Mississippi 85 - Memphis 77	-6
Missouri 71 - Western Kentucky 65	0.683	Missouri 59 - Western Kentucky 56	3
Montana 68 - Milwaukee 59	0.756	Montana 75 - Milwaukee 69	3
Murray State 72 - Detroit 62	0.752	Murray State 86 - Detroit 76	0
NC State 79 - Boston 55	0.962	NC State 77 - Boston 73	20
Nebraska 74 - South Dakota 59	0.835	Nebraska 73 - South Dakota 61	3
New Hampshire 61 - Holy Cross 62	0.545	New Hampshire 56 - Holy Cross 53	-4
New Mexico State 69 - Long Beach State 62	0.697	New Mexico State 93 - Long Beach State 85	-1
Norfolk State 68 - Northern Kentucky 55	0.82	Norfolk State 61 - Northern Kentucky 72	24
North Texas 71 - Texas Arlington 64	0.68	North Texas 61 - Texas Arlington 77	23
Northern Arizona 60 - San Diego 63	0.599	Northern Arizona 65 - San Diego 80	12
Northern Colorado 80 - Unranked 53		Northern Colorado 97 - Unranked 73
Northwestern 74 - DePaul 68	0.658	Northwestern 80 - DePaul 64	-10
Oakland 71 - Southern Utah 62	0.744	Oakland 78 - Southern Utah 68	-1
Ohio 67 - Bryant 62	0.652	Ohio 79 - Bryant 53	-21
Ohio State 87 - Fairleigh Dickinson 47	0.999	Ohio State 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 62	32
Oregon 75 - Savannah State 47	0.982	Oregon 128 - Savannah State 59	-41
Penn State 72 - Wright State 55	0.882	Penn State 72 - Wright State 50	-5
Pepperdine 63 - Belmont 66	0.583	Pepperdine 77 - Belmont 85	5
Portland 64 - Colorado 70	0.647	Portland 63 - Colorado 76	7
Portland State 66 - Texas Pan American 53	0.836	Portland State 87 - Texas Pan American 74	0
Providence 76 - Rhode Island 63	0.839	Providence 63 - Rhode Island 60	10
Purdue 73 - Morehead State 61	0.802	Purdue 90 - Morehead State 56	-22
Richmond 74 - Wake Forest 59	0.833	Richmond 67 - Wake Forest 75	23
Rutgers 73 - Morgan State 60	0.868	Rutgers 72 - Morgan State 58	-1
Sacramento State 80 - Unranked 48		Sacramento State 81 - Unranked 54
Sacred Heart 64 - Hartford 63	0.512	Sacred Heart 79 - Hartford 87	9
Saint Bonaventure 67 - Buffalo 68	0.523	Saint Bonaventure 90 - Buffalo 84	-7
Saint Francis Penn 63 - Binghamton 52	0.821	Saint Francis Penn 70 - Binghamton 73	14
Saint Louis 67 - Kansas State 64	0.586	Saint Louis 53 - Kansas State 84	34
Sam Houston State 76 - Unranked 44		Sam Houston State 91 - Unranked 59
San Jose State 57 - Santa Clara 74	0.887	San Jose State 55 - Santa Clara 40	-32
Siena 62 - Fairfield 57	0.651	Siena 80 - Fairfield 73	-2
South Alabama 62 - Middle Tennessee 70	0.732	South Alabama 55 - Middle Tennessee 67	4
South Dakota State 77 - UMKC 49	0.974	South Dakota State 77 - UMKC 68	19
Southern California 66 - Brigham Young 79	0.842	Southern California 91 - Brigham Young 84	-20
Southern Illinois 65 - Texas Southern 60	0.646	Southern Illinois 74 - Texas Southern 70	1
Stephen F Austin 85 - Unranked 42		Stephen F Austin 90 - Unranked 59
Stetson 75 - Unranked 54		Stetson 101 - Unranked 69
Stony Brook 68 - Northeastern 57	0.815	Stony Brook 77 - Northeastern 75	9
Syracuse 76 - North Florida 56	0.942	Syracuse 77 - North Florida 71	14
Temple 78 - Pennsylvania 55	0.969	Temple 70 - Pennsylvania 62	15
Tennessee 73 - Georgia Tech 57	0.884	Tennessee 81 - Georgia Tech 58	-7
Texas Christian 72 - Arkansas State 59	0.803	Texas Christian 77 - Arkansas State 54	-10
Texas El Paso 74 - Northwestern State 62	0.811	Texas El Paso 67 - Northwestern State 79	24
Texas Tech 68 - Rice 59	0.735	Texas Tech 85 - Rice 84	8
The Citadel 48 - South Carolina Upstate 62	0.872	The Citadel 97 - South Carolina Upstate 92	-19
Toledo 64 - Green Bay 65	0.545	Toledo 77 - Green Bay 78	0
Towson 58 - Old Dominion 64	0.691	Towson 58 - Old Dominion 60	-4
UMass Lowell 55 - NJ Tech 60	0.644	UMass Lowell 74 - NJ Tech 75	-4
UMBC 70 - Unranked 57		UMBC 98 - Unranked 59
UNC Greensboro 67 - Liberty 61	0.651	UNC Greensboro 72 - Liberty 65	-1
UNC Wilmington 75 - Unranked 55		UNC Wilmington 126 - Unranked 113
Utah State 69 - Indiana State 65	0.602	Utah State 61 - Indiana State 62	5
Utah Valley 57 - Texas San Antonio 66	0.764	Utah Valley 75 - Texas San Antonio 71	-13
Villanova 78 - Saint Josephs 60	0.897	Villanova 88 - Saint Josephs 57	-13
Virginia 73 - West Virginia 61	0.804	Virginia 57 - West Virginia 66	21
Virginia Commonwealth 70 - Illinois 69	0.505	Virginia Commonwealth 46 - Illinois 64	19
Virginia Military Institute 71 - Gardner Webb 69	0.567	Virginia Military Institute 68 - Gardner Webb 86	20
Washington State 78 - New Orleans 54	0.949	Washington State 54 - New Orleans 70	40
Weber State 58 - Denver 59	0.52	Weber State 55 - Denver 57	1
Western Illinois 64 - Chicago State 51	0.825	Western Illinois 76 - Chicago State 83	20
Wisconsin 78 - Oklahoma 62	0.872	Wisconsin 90 - Oklahoma 70	-4
Wyoming 61 - Northern Iowa 62	0.5	Wyoming 81 - Northern Iowa 73	-9
Yale 63 - Albany 58	0.633	Yale 59 - Albany 55	1
Youngstown State 82 - Unranked 53		Youngstown State 87 - Unranked 72

GAMES OF 12-4

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Cincinnati 71 - Bowling Green 56	0.886	Cincinnati 85 - Bowling Green 56	-14
Clemson 76 - Coppin State 57	0.919	Clemson 85 - Coppin State 43	-23
Colgate 57 - South Carolina Upstate 64	0.681	Colgate 65 - South Carolina Upstate 71	-1
College of Charleston 61 - Davidson 74	0.777	College of Charleston 76 - Davidson 61	-28
George Washington 69 - Florida State 62	0.681	George Washington 48 - Florida State 67	26
Georgetown 81 - Elon 50	0.986	Georgetown 77 - Elon 74	28
Georgia 69 - Marquette 64	0.645	Georgia 79 - Marquette 89	15
Georgia Southern 60 - Florida Gulf Coast 57	0.583	Georgia Southern 82 - Florida Gulf Coast 85	6
Illinois Chicago 63 - Eastern Illinois 59	0.611	Illinois Chicago 76 - Eastern Illinois 90	18
Indiana 82 - SE Missouri State 62	0.927	Indiana 83 - SE Missouri State 55	-8
Iona 79 - Niagara 65	0.876	Iona 58 - Niagara 74	30
Jackson State 54 - Southern Miss 68	0.827	Jackson State 75 - Southern Miss 64	-25
Mississippi State 65 - Georgia State 67	0.558	Mississippi State 82 - Georgia State 60	-24
Monmouth 59 - Canisius 66	0.697	Monmouth 94 - Canisius 88	-13
North Carolina 83 - Radford 59	0.984	North Carolina 95 - Radford 50	-21
Notre Dame 81 - North Carolina AT 53	0.978	Notre Dame 107 - North Carolina AT 53	-26
Quinnipiac 69 - Marist 56	0.828	Quinnipiac 77 - Marist 63	-1
Saint Peters 57 - Manhattan 65	0.737	Saint Peters 84 - Manhattan 70	-22
Samford 63 - Jacksonville State 61	0.562	Samford 81 - Jacksonville State 77	-2
Seattle 66 - Eastern Washington 64	0.55	Seattle 88 - Eastern Washington 93	7
South Carolina 68 - Florida International 64	0.623	South Carolina 70 - Florida International 54	-12
Southern Methodist 72 - Delaware State 55	0.927	Southern Methodist 74 - Delaware State 60	3
Tennessee Martin 76 - Unranked 55		Tennessee Martin 108 - Unranked 64
Tennessee Tech 79 - Unranked 52		Tennessee Tech 98 - Unranked 51
The Citadel 56 - Campbell 58	0.563	The Citadel 91 - Campbell 97	4
Troy 64 - Alabama State 62	0.566	Troy 83 - Alabama State 65	-16
Unranked 58 - East Tennessee State 71		Unranked 57 - East Tennessee State 85

Number of DI Games: 322
Number Correct: 209 = 64.9%
Expected Number Correct: 242.522 = 75.3%
Average Error: 12.7
Average Signed Error: 1.96

WEEK 5 -- 12-5 to 12-11

GAMES OF 12-5

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Bethune Cookman 66 - Jacksonville 75	0.721	Bethune Cookman 66 - Jacksonville 76	1
Coastal Carolina 87 - Unranked 57		Coastal Carolina 100 - Unranked 63
Iowa 86 - Stetson 65	0.943	Iowa 95 - Stetson 68	-6
Iowa State 88 - Omaha 64	0.951	Iowa State 91 - Omaha 47	-20
Louisiana Tech 83 - Alcorn State 57	0.993	Louisiana Tech 98 - Alcorn State 65	-7
Loyola Marymount 68 - Boise State 72	0.632	Loyola Marymount 79 - Boise State 80	-3
Maryland Eastern Shore 84 - Unranked 63		Maryland Eastern Shore 87 - Unranked 74
Montana State 74 - Milwaukee 66	0.717	Montana State 78 - Milwaukee 83	13
Northern Arizona 61 - Cal State Bakersfield 74	0.871	Northern Arizona 47 - Cal State Bakersfield 81	21
Portland 84 - Texas Pan American 62	0.988	Portland 90 - Texas Pan American 89	21
Rider 70 - Siena 71	0.512	Rider 71 - Siena 69	-3
Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - Lafayette 68	0.515	Saint Francis Brooklyn 72 - Lafayette 74	3
Saint Johns 86 - Cal State Northridge 73	0.834	Saint Johns 76 - Cal State Northridge 70	7
Syracuse 75 - Connecticut 63	0.791	Syracuse 50 - Connecticut 52	14
Texas AM 78 - Texas AM CC 58	0.978	Texas AM 86 - Texas AM CC 69	3
Texas Arlington 94 - Unranked 54		Texas Arlington 99 - Unranked 49
Unranked 58 - UNC Greensboro 84		Unranked 56 - UNC Greensboro 108
Wyoming 92 - Unranked 54		Wyoming 67 - Unranked 60

GAMES OF 12-6

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
American 61 - New Hampshire 69	0.719	American 70 - New Hampshire 80	2
Arizona 78 - UC Irvine 59	0.95	Arizona 79 - UC Irvine 57	-3
Arizona State 69 - Purdue 83	0.83	Arizona State 64 - Purdue 97	19
Arkansas 80 - Houston 72	0.684	Arkansas 84 - Houston 72	-4
Ball State 75 - Bradley 70	0.668	Ball State 80 - Bradley 63	-12
Central Michigan 77 - Green Bay 71	0.644	Central Michigan 107 - Green Bay 97	-4
Chattanooga 80 - Marshall 71	0.693	Chattanooga 96 - Marshall 85	-2
Colorado State 93 - Unranked 51		Colorado State 93 - Unranked 69
Dayton 98 - Unranked 49		Dayton 91 - Unranked 59
DePaul 79 - Lamar 63	0.907	DePaul 80 - Lamar 61	-3
Duke 74 - Florida 73	0.534	Duke 84 - Florida 74	-9
Elon 74 - UNC Asheville 72	0.583	Elon 67 - UNC Asheville 78	13
Evansville 75 - Bowling Green 63	0.845	Evansville 69 - Bowling Green 66	9
Fairfield 71 - Bucknell 73	0.558	Fairfield 64 - Bucknell 75	9
Florida State 90 - Southern Miss 54	0.999	Florida State 98 - Southern Miss 49	-13
Harvard 73 - Northeastern 68	0.676	Harvard 86 - Northeastern 80	-1
Hawaii 69 - Seton Hall 76	0.734	Hawaii 57 - Seton Hall 68	4
Hofstra 70 - Saint Bonaventure 80	0.779	Hofstra 75 - Saint Bonaventure 81	-4
Illinois 80 - IUPUI 63	0.895	Illinois 85 - IUPUI 77	9
Kansas 91 - UMKC 60	0.995	Kansas 105 - UMKC 62	-12
Kansas State 88 - Prairie View 55	0.998	Kansas State 74 - Prairie View 55	14
Liberty 67 - Furman 70	0.594	Liberty 58 - Furman 61	0
Lipscomb 71 - Belmont 80	0.785	Lipscomb 76 - Belmont 78	-7
Marquette 86 - Fresno State 65	0.936	Marquette 84 - Fresno State 81	18
Miami 90 - South Carolina State 54	0.998	Miami 82 - South Carolina State 46	0
Michigan 75 - Texas 65	0.758	Michigan 53 - Texas 50	7
Michigan State 88 - Youngstown State 63	0.95	Michigan State 77 - Youngstown State 57	5
Minnesota 83 - NJ Tech 59	0.981	Minnesota 74 - NJ Tech 68	18
Missouri 77 - Miami OH 63	0.85	Missouri 81 - Miami OH 55	-12
Morgan State 68 - Manhattan 73	0.635	Morgan State 85 - Manhattan 82	-8
Navy 71 - Bryant 70	0.555	Navy 76 - Bryant 74	-1
North Carolina Central 74 - LIU Brooklyn 65	0.78	North Carolina Central 79 - LIU Brooklyn 56	-14
Notre Dame 85 - IPFW 66	0.943	Notre Dame 87 - IPFW 72	4
Ohio State 85 - Florida Atlantic 56	0.978	Ohio State 77 - Florida Atlantic 79	31
Princeton 66 - California 76	0.833	Princeton 51 - California 62	1
Providence 83 - Brown 61	0.979	Providence 95 - Brown 57	-16
Rhode Island 72 - Old Dominion 63	0.777	Rhode Island 51 - Old Dominion 39	-3
Robert Morris 65 - Duquesne 72	0.722	Robert Morris 64 - Duquesne 60	-11
Rutgers 79 - Central Connecticut State 58	0.934	Rutgers 79 - Central Connecticut State 37	-21
Sacred Heart 75 - UMass Lowell 74	0.537	Sacred Heart 91 - UMass Lowell 82	-8
San Francisco 92 - Unranked 55		San Francisco 91 - Unranked 59
Stony Brook 73 - Lehigh 77	0.651	Stony Brook 62 - Lehigh 57	-9
Tennessee 85 - Presbyterian 58	0.964	Tennessee 90 - Presbyterian 50	-13
Unranked 61 - Wofford 81		Unranked 56 - Wofford 116
Utah 83 - Utah Valley 67	0.891	Utah 87 - Utah Valley 80	9
Utah State 90 - Unranked 53		Utah State 84 - Unranked 51
Vanderbilt 81 - High Point 61	0.93	Vanderbilt 90 - High Point 63	-7
Villanova 85 - La Salle 65	0.956	Villanova 89 - La Salle 79	10
Virginia 77 - East Carolina 49	0.992	Virginia 76 - East Carolina 53	5
Wagner 67 - Monmouth 75	0.741	Wagner 71 - Monmouth 81	2
Wake Forest 84 - Charlotte 69	0.905	Wake Forest 91 - Charlotte 74	-2
Wichita State 87 - Saint Louis 56	0.991	Wichita State 75 - Saint Louis 45	1
Winthrop 92 - Unranked 56		Winthrop 106 - Unranked 63

GAMES OF 12-7

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 85 - Coppin State 54	0.972	Akron 87 - Coppin State 63	7
Albany 77 - Marist 64	0.845	Albany 78 - Marist 66	1
Army 73 - Air Force 71	0.595	Army 79 - Air Force 71	-6
Boston 73 - Canisius 68	0.664	Boston 77 - Canisius 87	15
Boston College 73 - Harvard 69	0.629	Boston College 66 - Harvard 74	12
Brigham Young 83 - Weber State 64	0.908	Brigham Young 77 - Weber State 66	8
Cleveland State 72 - Western Michigan 71	0.507	Cleveland State 85 - Western Michigan 62	-22
Colgate 68 - Binghamton 64	0.621	Colgate 64 - Binghamton 73	13
Colorado 72 - Xavier 77	0.647	Colorado 68 - Xavier 66	-7
Fairleigh Dickinson 67 - Iona 77	0.736	Fairleigh Dickinson 73 - Iona 90	7
Gardner Webb 76 - Hampton 65	0.845	Gardner Webb 69 - Hampton 63	5
Gonzaga 88 - Washington 67	0.957	Gonzaga 98 - Washington 71	-6
Grand Canyon 68 - San Diego State 73	0.646	Grand Canyon 76 - San Diego State 72	-9
Hawaii 71 - Princeton 69	0.58	Hawaii 62 - Princeton 75	15
Houston Baptist 71 - Saint Peters 72	0.544	Houston Baptist 62 - Saint Peters 47	-16
Incarnate Word 89 - Unranked 57		Incarnate Word 78 - Unranked 71
Indiana State 64 - Butler 78	0.894	Indiana State 72 - Butler 71	-15
Jacksonville 71 - Eastern Kentucky 74	0.589	Jacksonville 76 - Eastern Kentucky 80	1
Kent State 77 - Niagara 65	0.811	Kent State 100 - Niagara 72	-16
Kentucky 83 - Valparaiso 64	0.932	Kentucky 87 - Valparaiso 63	-5
Long Beach State 76 - Pepperdine 71	0.678	Long Beach State 75 - Pepperdine 66	-4
Louisville 85 - Southern Illinois 61	0.985	Louisville 74 - Southern Illinois 51	1
Loyola Ill 76 - Wright State 66	0.81	Loyola Ill 77 - Wright State 64	-3
Maine 65 - Holy Cross 74	0.735	Maine 55 - Holy Cross 53	-11
Maryland 85 - Howard 58	0.98	Maryland 79 - Howard 56	4
Montana 70 - San Jose State 68	0.562	Montana 81 - San Jose State 62	-17
Mt St Marys 76 - UMBC 70	0.67	Mt St Marys 70 - UMBC 78	14
Nebraska 71 - Creighton 77	0.739	Nebraska 62 - Creighton 77	9
New Mexico 82 - Texas El Paso 63	0.932	New Mexico 78 - Texas El Paso 77	18
North Carolina 84 - Davidson 66	0.876	North Carolina 83 - Davidson 74	9
North Dakota State 75 - North Dakota 64	0.799	North Dakota State 56 - North Dakota 74	29
Northern Iowa 76 - South Dakota State 63	0.816	Northern Iowa 86 - South Dakota State 58	-15
Northern Kentucky 73 - Eastern Illinois 67	0.69	Northern Kentucky 80 - Eastern Illinois 70	-4
Oklahoma 88 - Oral Roberts 63	0.954	Oklahoma 92 - Oral Roberts 66	-1
Penn State 77 - George Mason 66	0.836	Penn State 66 - George Mason 85	30
Pennsylvania 77 - Lafayette 64	0.885	Pennsylvania 81 - Lafayette 52	-16
Pittsburgh 80 - Buffalo 67	0.863	Pittsburgh 84 - Buffalo 79	8
Quinnipiac 79 - Hartford 66	0.859	Quinnipiac 99 - Hartford 79	-7
Saint Francis Brooklyn 80 - Unranked 59		Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - Unranked 51
San Diego 75 - Cal State Fullerton 62	0.868	San Diego 82 - Cal State Fullerton 75	6
SE Missouri State 69 - Missouri State 73	0.602	SE Missouri State 71 - Missouri State 79	4
Seton Hall 72 - California 74	0.546	Seton Hall 60 - California 57	-5
SIU Edwardsville 79 - Stetson 65	0.823	SIU Edwardsville 72 - Stetson 80	22
South Dakota 73 - Montana State 71	0.564	South Dakota 74 - Montana State 57	-15
Southern Methodist 68 - Texas Christian 69	0.511	Southern Methodist 74 - Texas Christian 59	-16
Stephen F Austin 70 - Alabama Birmingham 69	0.523	Stephen F Austin 73 - Alabama Birmingham 84	12
Temple 81 - George Washington 65	0.894	Temple 63 - George Washington 66	19
Texas AM 80 - Denver 58	0.992	Texas AM 80 - Denver 58	0
Texas Pan American 64 - Texas State 71	0.678	Texas Pan American 72 - Texas State 61	-18
Texas Tech 82 - Texas San Antonio 51	0.989	Texas Tech 87 - Texas San Antonio 50	-6
Toledo 86 - Detroit 69	0.947	Toledo 73 - Detroit 65	9
Towson 70 - Loyola MD 65	0.664	Towson 70 - Loyola MD 53	-12
Tulane 73 - Southern 69	0.609	Tulane 84 - Southern 75	-5
Tulsa 67 - Illinois State 72	0.648	Tulsa 70 - Illinois State 68	-7
UL Lafayette 95 - Unranked 56		UL Lafayette 94 - Unranked 60
Unranked 57 - Mercer 83		Unranked 41 - Mercer 98
Unranked 73 - The Citadel 88		Unranked 94 - The Citadel 144
Vermont 82 - Dartmouth 58	0.984	Vermont 73 - Dartmouth 58	9
Virginia Commonwealth 77 - Georgia Tech 63	0.857	Virginia Commonwealth 73 - Georgia Tech 76	17
Virginia Tech 90 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59	0.996	Virginia Tech 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 59	15
Washington State 74 - Idaho 67	0.676	Washington State 61 - Idaho 48	-6
Western Carolina 57 - West Virginia 86	0.955	Western Carolina 37 - West Virginia 90	24
Wisconsin 87 - Idaho State 51	0.997	Wisconsin 78 - Idaho State 44	2

GAMES OF 12-8

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arkansas Little Rock 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 51	0.99	Arkansas Little Rock 67 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 52	12
Eastern Washington 93 - Unranked 59		Eastern Washington 103 - Unranked 76
Florida State 91 - Nicholls State 61	0.994	Florida State 118 - Nicholls State 63	-25
Iowa 70 - Iowa State 82	0.789	Iowa 78 - Iowa State 64	-26
Loyola Marymount 79 - Southern Utah 62	0.962	Loyola Marymount 75 - Southern Utah 68	10
Massachusetts 79 - Pacific 65	0.886	Massachusetts 72 - Pacific 48	-10
Middle Tennessee 72 - Vanderbilt 66	0.704	Middle Tennessee 71 - Vanderbilt 48	-17
North Texas 70 - Delaware State 64	0.674	North Texas 73 - Delaware State 40	-27
Sacred Heart 66 - Yale 79	0.845	Sacred Heart 52 - Yale 66	1
Saint Johns 76 - Fordham 67	0.694	Saint Johns 90 - Fordham 62	-19
Saint Marys 82 - Texas Arlington 65	0.942	Saint Marys 51 - Texas Arlington 65	31

GAMES OF 12-9

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Boston College 79 - Hartford 63	0.923	Boston College 63 - Hartford 65	18
Brown 90 - Unranked 60		Brown 90 - Unranked 58
Creighton 97 - Longwood 53	0.999	Creighton 113 - Longwood 58	-11
Florida Gulf Coast 79 - Siena 69	0.831	Florida Gulf Coast 73 - Siena 69	6
Grambling State 80 - Unranked 65		Grambling State 103 - Unranked 53
Minnesota 83 - Georgia Southern 59	0.985	Minnesota 86 - Georgia Southern 49	-13
Navy 71 - Columbia 70	0.525	Navy 69 - Columbia 54	-14
Texas AM CC 87 - Unranked 55		Texas AM CC 77 - Unranked 67
UC Irvine 87 - Unranked 53		UC Irvine 80 - Unranked 53
UNC Greensboro 70 - Wake Forest 77	0.765	UNC Greensboro 75 - Wake Forest 78	-4

GAMES OF 12-10

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 85 - Unranked 57		Abilene Christian 90 - Unranked 69
Air Force 74 - Denver 67	0.744	Air Force 65 - Denver 77	19
American 70 - Youngstown State 71	0.537	American 77 - Youngstown State 62	-16
Arkansas 89 - North Florida 64	0.97	Arkansas 91 - North Florida 76	10
Arkansas Little Rock 81 - Central Arkansas 62	0.905	Arkansas Little Rock 70 - Central Arkansas 59	8
Ball State 73 - Eastern Kentucky 76	0.596	Ball State 91 - Eastern Kentucky 86	-8
Bethune Cookman 81 - Unranked 64		Bethune Cookman 81 - Unranked 79
Binghamton 63 - Loyola MD 67	0.636	Binghamton 85 - Loyola MD 90	1
Bowling Green 78 - Detroit 67	0.794	Bowling Green 74 - Detroit 61	-2
Bradley 75 - Chicago State 66	0.793	Bradley 83 - Chicago State 48	-26
Brigham Young 78 - Colorado 76	0.579	Brigham Young 79 - Colorado 71	-6
Brown 90 - Unranked 60		Brown 89 - Unranked 59
Bryant 69 - New Hampshire 70	0.53	Bryant 73 - New Hampshire 86	12
Buffalo 84 - Coppin State 58	0.979	Buffalo 87 - Coppin State 52	-9
Butler 73 - Cincinnati 66	0.765	Butler 75 - Cincinnati 65	-3
Cal State Bakersfield 77 - Portland State 63	0.903	Cal State Bakersfield 81 - Portland State 79	12
Cal State Fullerton 75 - Southern Utah 69	0.701	Cal State Fullerton 75 - Southern Utah 62	-7
Cal State Northridge 74 - Loyola Marymount 75	0.531	Cal State Northridge 68 - Loyola Marymount 69	0
California 82 - UC Davis 58	0.972	California 86 - UC Davis 61	-1
Canisius 76 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 62	0.92	Canisius 91 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 81	4
Central Florida 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 54	0.996	Central Florida 76 - Maryland Eastern Shore 58	13
Charleston Southern 85 - Unranked 60		Charleston Southern 100 - Unranked 53
Clemson 79 - Mercer 61	0.951	Clemson 90 - Mercer 47	-25
Coastal Carolina 68 - North Carolina Central 69	0.505	Coastal Carolina 70 - North Carolina Central 67	-4
Colgate 64 - Albany 73	0.809	Colgate 66 - Albany 74	-1
Colorado State 81 - Northern Colorado 61	0.951	Colorado State 81 - Northern Colorado 64	3
Dartmouth 73 - Maine 69	0.61	Dartmouth 68 - Maine 73	9
Dayton 78 - East Tennessee State 69	0.787	Dayton 75 - East Tennessee State 61	-5
Delaware State 81 - Unranked 60		Delaware State 92 - Unranked 69
Drake 71 - Jackson State 64	0.78	Drake 63 - Jackson State 68	12
Duquesne 77 - Central Connecticut State 61	0.883	Duquesne 70 - Central Connecticut State 67	13
Evansville 76 - Murray State 70	0.7	Evansville 78 - Murray State 46	-26
Fresno State 72 - Cal Poly 64	0.705	Fresno State 73 - Cal Poly 59	-6
Gardner Webb 71 - Furman 72	0.521	Gardner Webb 65 - Furman 68	2
George Washington 80 - Howard 62	0.92	George Washington 79 - Howard 62	1
Georgetown 76 - La Salle 73	0.574	Georgetown 93 - La Salle 78	-12
Georgia State 90 - Unranked 51		Georgia State 83 - Unranked 52
Gonzaga 82 - Akron 62	0.931	Gonzaga 61 - Akron 43	2
Grand Canyon 80 - Illinois Chicago 68	0.824	Grand Canyon 73 - Illinois Chicago 69	8
Houston 76 - Rhode Island 70	0.632	Houston 82 - Rhode Island 77	1
Idaho State 83 - Unranked 60		Idaho State 80 - Unranked 61
Illinois 80 - Central Michigan 67	0.84	Illinois 92 - Central Michigan 73	-6
Illinois State 78 - Tennessee Martin 63	0.931	Illinois State 74 - Tennessee Martin 57	-2
Incarnate Word 89 - Unranked 57		Incarnate Word 83 - Unranked 68
Indiana 92 - Houston Baptist 60	0.996	Indiana 103 - Houston Baptist 61	-10
Iona 72 - Ohio 70	0.54	Iona 79 - Ohio 75	-2
IPFW 83 - Austin Peay 68	0.885	IPFW 98 - Austin Peay 58	-25
Kansas 83 - Nebraska 64	0.975	Kansas 89 - Nebraska 72	2
Kansas State 81 - Washington State 62	0.926	Kansas State 70 - Washington State 56	5
Kent State 76 - NJ Tech 67	0.769	Kent State 87 - NJ Tech 71	-7
Lamar 83 - Unranked 60		Lamar 109 - Unranked 58
Liberty 67 - Princeton 72	0.688	Liberty 64 - Princeton 67	-2
Lipscomb 73 - Morehead State 75	0.578	Lipscomb 98 - Morehead State 84	-16
Louisville 84 - Texas Southern 57	0.993	Louisville 102 - Texas Southern 71	-4
Loyola Ill 76 - Milwaukee 60	0.861	Loyola Ill 72 - Milwaukee 56	0
Manhattan 70 - Fordham 69	0.517	Manhattan 60 - Fordham 53	-6
Marist 71 - Jacksonville 69	0.556	Marist 64 - Jacksonville 85	23
Marquette 74 - Wisconsin 75	0.541	Marquette 84 - Wisconsin 93	8
Marshall 82 - Toledo 77	0.62	Marshall 111 - Toledo 105	-1
Maryland 78 - Saint Peters 60	0.898	Maryland 66 - Saint Peters 56	8
Memphis 76 - Alabama Birmingham 70	0.715	Memphis 62 - Alabama Birmingham 55	-1
Miami OH 70 - IUPUI 72	0.563	Miami OH 71 - IUPUI 68	-5
Michigan State 87 - Tennessee Tech 57	0.984	Michigan State 71 - Tennessee Tech 63	22
Missouri 66 - Arizona 75	0.749	Missouri 60 - Arizona 79	10
Missouri State 68 - Valparaiso 72	0.609	Missouri State 81 - Valparaiso 84	-1
Monmouth 80 - Army 68	0.866	Monmouth 81 - Army 71	2
Morgan State 66 - Wagner 70	0.635	Morgan State 66 - Wagner 68	-2
Mt St Marys 72 - Lehigh 76	0.627	Mt St Marys 71 - Lehigh 90	15
NC State 78 - Tennessee State 67	0.813	NC State 67 - Tennessee State 55	-1
Nevada Las Vegas 65 - Duke 83	0.911	Nevada Las Vegas 45 - Duke 94	31
New Mexico State 72 - New Mexico 69	0.623	New Mexico State 84 - New Mexico 71	-10
Niagara 73 - Norfolk State 66	0.698	Niagara 65 - Norfolk State 61	3
Northern Iowa 78 - North Dakota 61	0.895	Northern Iowa 78 - North Dakota 70	9
Notre Dame 72 - Villanova 78	0.703	Notre Dame 66 - Villanova 74	2
Ohio State 79 - Connecticut 61	0.883	Ohio State 64 - Connecticut 60	14
Old Dominion 66 - Virginia Commonwealth 69	0.615	Old Dominion 64 - Virginia Commonwealth 67	0
Omaha 78 - Montana State 73	0.661	Omaha 97 - Montana State 91	-1
Oral Roberts 86 - Unranked 61		Oral Roberts 95 - Unranked 63
Pacific 72 - Rider 65	0.723	Pacific 66 - Rider 73	14
Pennsylvania 74 - George Mason 70	0.61	Pennsylvania 60 - George Mason 79	23
Pittsburgh 74 - Penn State 70	0.607	Pittsburgh 81 - Penn State 73	-4
Providence 75 - Massachusetts 66	0.831	Providence 75 - Massachusetts 69	3
Purdue 86 - Cleveland State 57	0.994	Purdue 77 - Cleveland State 53	5
Radford 66 - Elon 73	0.721	Radford 68 - Elon 56	-19
Rice 76 - Stephen F Austin 67	0.758	Rice 70 - Stephen F Austin 63	2
Richmond 80 - UMBC 68	0.822	Richmond 78 - UMBC 75	9
Robert Morris 66 - Oakland 76	0.822	Robert Morris 53 - Oakland 74	11
Saint Bonaventure 76 - UNC Wilmington 72	0.62	Saint Bonaventure 80 - UNC Wilmington 81	5
San Diego State 76 - Arizona State 67	0.732	San Diego State 63 - Arizona State 74	20
San Jose State 87 - Unranked 54		San Jose State 109 - Unranked 70
Santa Clara 85 - Unranked 57		Santa Clara 75 - Unranked 50
SE Missouri State 70 - Northern Kentucky 71	0.511	SE Missouri State 66 - Northern Kentucky 80	13
Seattle 86 - Unranked 58		Seattle 90 - Unranked 49
SIU Edwardsville 87 - Unranked 57		SIU Edwardsville 44 - Unranked 49
South Carolina Upstate 87 - Unranked 59		South Carolina Upstate 99 - Unranked 67
South Dakota 77 - Sacramento State 61	0.954	South Dakota 72 - Sacramento State 56	0
South Dakota State 73 - Idaho 67	0.669	South Dakota State 80 - Idaho 77	3
Southern 84 - Unranked 58		Southern 64 - Unranked 69
Southern Illinois 77 - Sam Houston State 67	0.85	Southern Illinois 73 - Sam Houston State 79	16
Southern Miss 69 - Tulane 72	0.6	Southern Miss 64 - Tulane 71	4
Stetson 65 - South Alabama 75	0.788	Stetson 87 - South Alabama 78	-19
Stony Brook 68 - Rutgers 73	0.644	Stony Brook 66 - Rutgers 71	0
Syracuse 81 - Boston 60	0.93	Syracuse 99 - Boston 77	-1
Temple 80 - DePaul 68	0.849	Temple 74 - DePaul 65	3
Texas 82 - Long Beach State 65	0.894	Texas 71 - Long Beach State 65	11
Texas AM 87 - South Carolina State 53	0.999	Texas AM 83 - South Carolina State 76	27
Texas Christian 82 - Wofford 56	0.989	Texas Christian 72 - Wofford 63	17
Texas San Antonio 80 - Unranked 58		Texas San Antonio 88 - Unranked 69
Texas State 76 - Prairie View 62	0.831	Texas State 64 - Prairie View 57	7
Towson 78 - Fairleigh Dickinson 65	0.815	Towson 90 - Fairleigh Dickinson 87	10
Troy 78 - Alabama AM 55	0.957	Troy 88 - Alabama AM 59	-6
Tulsa 73 - Oklahoma State 81	0.685	Tulsa 67 - Oklahoma State 71	-4
UCLA 80 - Michigan 71	0.742	UCLA 102 - Michigan 84	-9
UL Lafayette 76 - Louisiana Tech 73	0.596	UL Lafayette 91 - Louisiana Tech 83	-5
UL Monroe 70 - Jacksonville State 68	0.568	UL Monroe 88 - Jacksonville State 83	-3
UMKC 89 - Unranked 57		UMKC 93 - Unranked 71
UNC Asheville 91 - Unranked 54		UNC Asheville 117 - Unranked 52
Unranked 59 - Samford 84		Unranked 73 - Samford 92
Utah Valley 74 - Utah State 73	0.529	Utah Valley 79 - Utah State 80	2
Vermont 76 - Northeastern 64	0.839	Vermont 57 - Northeastern 59	14
Weber State 84 - Unranked 56		Weber State 107 - Unranked 51
West Virginia 98 - Virginia Military Institute 52	0.996	West Virginia 90 - Virginia Military Institute 55	11
Western Illinois 64 - Eastern Illinois 73	0.803	Western Illinois 49 - Eastern Illinois 63	5
Western Michigan 75 - James Madison 66	0.747	Western Michigan 74 - James Madison 67	2
Wichita State 82 - Oklahoma 70	0.808	Wichita State 76 - Oklahoma 73	9
Wyoming 77 - Montana 66	0.815	Wyoming 85 - Montana 83	9
Xavier 81 - Utah 69	0.841	Xavier 77 - Utah 69	4

GAMES OF 12-11

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Appalachian State 86 - Unranked 60		Appalachian State 116 - Unranked 57
College of Charleston 88 - Unranked 49		College of Charleston 59 - Unranked 45
Columbia 89 - Unranked 58		Columbia 84 - Unranked 42
Drexel 68 - Saint Josephs 75	0.705	Drexel 71 - Saint Josephs 72	-6
Eastern Michigan 92 - Unranked 56		Eastern Michigan 117 - Unranked 55
Florida Gulf Coast 80 - Florida International 62	0.906	Florida Gulf Coast 82 - Florida International 63	-1
Florida State 74 - Florida 75	0.516	Florida State 83 - Florida 78	-6
High Point 87 - Unranked 58		High Point 77 - Unranked 53
Hofstra 62 - Kentucky 90	0.979	Hofstra 73 - Kentucky 96	-5
Holy Cross 74 - Quinnipiac 68	0.674	Holy Cross 75 - Quinnipiac 57	-12
Indiana State 76 - Western Kentucky 61	0.863	Indiana State 59 - Western Kentucky 77	33
Lafayette 75 - Sacred Heart 68	0.735	Lafayette 61 - Sacred Heart 85	31
LIU Brooklyn 71 - Saint Johns 77	0.699	LIU Brooklyn 74 - Saint Johns 73	-7
Minnesota 82 - Northern Illinois 58	0.985	Minnesota 77 - Northern Illinois 57	4
Nicholls State 87 - Unranked 61		Nicholls State 95 - Unranked 63
North Carolina 87 - Tennessee 67	0.902	North Carolina 73 - Tennessee 71	18
Northwestern 84 - New Orleans 59	0.945	Northwestern 83 - New Orleans 49	-9
Oregon 77 - Alabama 64	0.831	Oregon 65 - Alabama 56	4
Oregon State 83 - Savannah State 65	0.902	Oregon State 90 - Savannah State 93	21
Saint Louis 73 - Chicago State 64	0.758	Saint Louis 45 - Chicago State 43	7
Saint Marys 81 - UC Irvine 57	0.976	Saint Marys 84 - UC Irvine 53	-7
San Diego 73 - UC Santa Barbara 65	0.758	San Diego 77 - UC Santa Barbara 68	-1
Southern 84 - Unranked 58		Southern 86 - Unranked 50
Southern California 84 - Pepperdine 60	0.986	Southern California 93 - Pepperdine 67	-2
Virginia Tech 81 - Mississippi 73	0.728	Virginia Tech 80 - Mississippi 75	3
Washington 78 - Nevada 77	0.536	Washington 85 - Nevada 87	3
Yale 73 - Delaware 60	0.837	Yale 81 - Delaware 63	-5

Number of DI Games: 260
Number Correct: 204 = 78.4%
Expected Number Correct: 204.413 = 78.6%
Average Error: 9.33
Average Signed Error: 1.15

WEEK 6 -- 12-12 to 12-18

GAMES OF 12-12

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Auburn 80 - Boston College 65	0.873	Auburn 71 - Boston College 72	16
Canisius 72 - Albany 71	0.546	Canisius 77 - Albany 64	-12
Central Florida 78 - Pennsylvania 59	0.923	Central Florida 49 - Pennsylvania 58	28
George Mason 86 - Longwood 58	0.971	George Mason 97 - Longwood 60	-9
IUPUI 88 - Unranked 57		IUPUI 109 - Unranked 67
Lehigh 83 - Saint Francis Penn 66	0.938	Lehigh 100 - Saint Francis Penn 67	-16
Maryland 80 - Jacksonville State 58	0.967	Maryland 92 - Jacksonville State 66	-4
Murray State 91 - Unranked 58		Murray State 103 - Unranked 65
San Diego State 81 - Alabama State 53	0.986	San Diego State 73 - Alabama State 41	-4
Seattle 73 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 57	0.937	Seattle 63 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 58	11
Seton Hall 69 - South Carolina 73	0.635	Seton Hall 67 - South Carolina 64	-7
South Florida 77 - Bethune Cookman 61	0.896	South Florida 79 - Bethune Cookman 73	10
Southeast Louisiana 81 - Florida AM 61	0.959	Southeast Louisiana 108 - Florida AM 69	-19
Texas Pan American 72 - North Florida 76	0.614	Texas Pan American 98 - North Florida 84	-18
UL Monroe 87 - Unranked 59		UL Monroe 72 - Unranked 41

GAMES OF 12-13

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Cincinnati 80 - Texas Southern 60	0.981	Cincinnati 96 - Texas Southern 58	-18
Clemson 91 - South Carolina State 58	0.989	Clemson 93 - South Carolina State 65	5
Eastern Washington 81 - Morehead State 70	0.817	Eastern Washington 88 - Morehead State 86	9
Florida Gulf Coast 80 - Georgia Southern 65	0.897	Florida Gulf Coast 59 - Georgia Southern 72	28
Hartford 76 - Dartmouth 67	0.782	Hartford 70 - Dartmouth 66	5
Hofstra 75 - Stony Brook 70	0.644	Hofstra 96 - Stony Brook 58	-33
Louisiana State 78 - North Carolina Central 66	0.768	Louisiana State 70 - North Carolina Central 66	8
Louisiana Tech 86 - Prairie View 60	0.976	Louisiana Tech 65 - Prairie View 52	13
Massachusetts 86 - North Carolina AT 53	0.999	Massachusetts 65 - North Carolina AT 59	27
Memphis 76 - Monmouth 71	0.658	Memphis 79 - Monmouth 82	8
Michigan 86 - Central Arkansas 57	0.98	Michigan 97 - Central Arkansas 53	-15
Oregon 84 - Montana 62	0.933	Oregon 81 - Montana 67	8
Portland State 88 - Unranked 62		Portland State 110 - Unranked 79
Sam Houston State 90 - Unranked 56		Sam Houston State 78 - Unranked 57
Santa Clara 72 - UC Riverside 62	0.809	Santa Clara 77 - UC Riverside 53	-14
South Alabama 70 - Denver 66	0.614	South Alabama 51 - Denver 64	17
South Carolina Upstate 78 - Presbyterian 64	0.836	South Carolina Upstate 76 - Presbyterian 48	-14
Tennessee 86 - Tennessee Tech 59	0.964	Tennessee 74 - Tennessee Tech 68	21
Texas El Paso 65 - New Mexico State 75	0.789	Texas El Paso 68 - New Mexico State 79	1
Villanova 83 - Temple 65	0.921	Villanova 78 - Temple 57	-3
Virginia Military Institute 70 - Charleston Southern 72	0.55	Virginia Military Institute 88 - Charleston Southern 83	-7
Wright State 90 - Unranked 57		Wright State 85 - Unranked 34
Yale 80 - Central Connecticut State 56	0.942	Yale 90 - Central Connecticut State 59	-7

GAMES OF 12-14

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 86 - Unranked 57		Abilene Christian 78 - Unranked 74
Arizona 82 - Grand Canyon 63	0.962	Arizona 64 - Grand Canyon 54	9
Baylor 90 - Southern 52	0.999	Baylor 89 - Southern 59	8
Belmont 66 - Middle Tennessee 74	0.737	Belmont 66 - Middle Tennessee 79	5
Campbell 60 - UNC Wilmington 78	0.947	Campbell 75 - UNC Wilmington 96	3
DePaul 81 - Illinois Chicago 66	0.932	DePaul 75 - Illinois Chicago 80	20
Evansville 78 - Norfolk State 57	0.967	Evansville 85 - Norfolk State 66	2
Fresno State 89 - Unranked 56		Fresno State 88 - Unranked 54
Georgia 80 - UL Lafayette 69	0.823	Georgia 73 - UL Lafayette 60	-2
Georgia State 86 - Alabama AM 49	0.989	Georgia State 94 - Alabama AM 79	22
Howard 69 - Jacksonville State 70	0.528	Howard 59 - Jacksonville State 72	12
Iona 78 - NJ Tech 64	0.841	Iona 94 - NJ Tech 80	0
Longwood 80 - Unranked 65		Longwood 86 - Unranked 67
Minnesota 83 - LIU Brooklyn 57	0.979	Minnesota 76 - LIU Brooklyn 66	16
Mississippi State 73 - East Tennessee State 72	0.545	Mississippi State 65 - East Tennessee State 67	3
Missouri State 80 - Oral Roberts 67	0.828	Missouri State 86 - Oral Roberts 76	3
Nevada 77 - UC Irvine 62	0.906	Nevada 76 - UC Irvine 69	8
Nevada Las Vegas 74 - Incarnate Word 70	0.618	Nevada Las Vegas 92 - Incarnate Word 64	-24
North Dakota State 75 - UC Davis 62	0.824	North Dakota State 74 - UC Davis 70	9
Northern Arizona 59 - Arkansas Little Rock 78	0.913	Northern Arizona 67 - Arkansas Little Rock 72	-14
Northern Illinois 86 - Unranked 57		Northern Illinois 95 - Unranked 69
Northwestern 87 - Chicago State 51	0.996	Northwestern 68 - Chicago State 64	32
Ohio 76 - Milwaukee 61	0.844	Ohio 71 - Milwaukee 69	13
Oklahoma State 90 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 53	0.993	Oklahoma State 102 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 66	1
Princeton 70 - Saint Josephs 71	0.519	Princeton 68 - Saint Josephs 76	7
Rider 76 - Kennesaw St 62	0.943	Rider 81 - Kennesaw St 79	12
Rutgers 83 - Fairleigh Dickinson 61	0.928	Rutgers 82 - Fairleigh Dickinson 69	9
Saint Marys 82 - Western Kentucky 57	0.94	Saint Marys 73 - Western Kentucky 51	3
Southern Illinois 76 - Saint Louis 64	0.868	Southern Illinois 70 - Saint Louis 55	-3
Southern Methodist 87 - Mcneese State 54	0.993	Southern Methodist 92 - Mcneese State 56	-3
Tennessee Martin 69 - Arkansas State 73	0.599	Tennessee Martin 68 - Arkansas State 87	15
Tennessee State 79 - Alabama State 55	0.965	Tennessee State 68 - Alabama State 46	2
Texas Tech 86 - Nicholls State 58	0.984	Texas Tech 89 - Nicholls State 46	-15
UCLA 94 - UC Santa Barbara 60	0.997	UCLA 102 - UC Santa Barbara 62	-6
Unranked 55 - Chattanooga 90		Unranked 65 - Chattanooga 107
Unranked 58 - UNC Greensboro 85		Unranked 61 - UNC Greensboro 96
Unranked 60 - Troy 82		Unranked 52 - Troy 114
Wisconsin 86 - Green Bay 58	0.973	Wisconsin 73 - Green Bay 59	14
Youngstown State 75 - Niagara 72	0.563	Youngstown State 101 - Niagara 97	-1

GAMES OF 12-15

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 79 - South Carolina Upstate 62	0.914	Alabama 78 - South Carolina Upstate 61	0
Auburn 81 - Coastal Carolina 64	0.922	Auburn 117 - Coastal Carolina 72	-28
Cal State Bakersfield 87 - Unranked 52		Cal State Bakersfield 105 - Unranked 78
Coppin State 79 - Unranked 64		Coppin State 89 - Unranked 83
East Carolina 63 - College of Charleston 64	0.529	East Carolina 35 - College of Charleston 53	17
Florida International 69 - Georgia Southern 70	0.502	Florida International 68 - Georgia Southern 75	6
George Washington 66 - Central Florida 71	0.668	George Washington 74 - Central Florida 59	-20
Jackson State 81 - Unranked 59		Jackson State 49 - Unranked 57
Mississippi 84 - Murray State 69	0.882	Mississippi 78 - Murray State 73	10
NC State 86 - Appalachian State 63	0.977	NC State 97 - Appalachian State 64	-10
North Florida 89 - Unranked 60		North Florida 110 - Unranked 80
Pacific 78 - North Carolina AT 59	0.944	Pacific 66 - North Carolina AT 57	10
Rice 94 - Unranked 55		Rice 93 - Unranked 64
Seattle 77 - Mississippi Valley State 63	0.898	Seattle 82 - Mississippi Valley State 67	-1
Tennessee 88 - Lipscomb 63	0.951	Tennessee 92 - Lipscomb 77	10
UMKC 77 - Omaha 74	0.575	UMKC 75 - Omaha 80	8
Wofford 75 - Austin Peay 68	0.698	Wofford 96 - Austin Peay 77	-12

GAMES OF 12-16

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Bradley 67 - Texas Arlington 78	0.775	Bradley 51 - Texas Arlington 56	-6
Cal State Northridge 89 - Unranked 64		Cal State Northridge 95 - Unranked 100
Central Arkansas 65 - Arkansas State 78	0.802	Central Arkansas 77 - Arkansas State 89	-1
Furman 80 - South Carolina State 62	0.882	Furman 67 - South Carolina State 69	20
Gardner Webb 89 - Unranked 59		Gardner Webb 95 - Unranked 45
High Point 87 - Unranked 58		High Point 79 - Unranked 61
Howard 83 - Unranked 61		Howard 77 - Unranked 66
Idaho State 82 - Unranked 60		Idaho State 76 - Unranked 46
Liberty 84 - Unranked 58		Liberty 81 - Unranked 33
Miami 85 - Florida Atlantic 59	0.97	Miami 76 - Florida Atlantic 56	6
North Dakota 72 - North Dakota State 68	0.615	North Dakota 70 - North Dakota State 87	21
Oregon State 71 - Long Beach State 72	0.546	Oregon State 67 - Long Beach State 71	3
Portland 76 - South Dakota 69	0.718	Portland 85 - South Dakota 82	4
Rider 73 - Drexel 67	0.679	Rider 90 - Drexel 82	-2
San Francisco 81 - Portland State 68	0.894	San Francisco 78 - Portland State 82	17
South Alabama 69 - Samford 67	0.572	South Alabama 79 - Samford 82	5
Stanford 95 - Unranked 49		Stanford 79 - Unranked 55
Texas Pan American 73 - Lamar 69	0.621	Texas Pan American 95 - Lamar 81	-10
William and Mary 90 - Unranked 59		William and Mary 113 - Unranked 59

GAMES OF 12-17

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 79 - Marshall 72	0.665	Akron 99 - Marshall 88	-4
Albany 77 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 59	0.978	Albany 87 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 60	-9
Appalachian State 72 - James Madison 67	0.677	Appalachian State 73 - James Madison 61	-7
Arizona State 74 - New Mexico State 71	0.577	Arizona State 70 - New Mexico State 81	14
Arkansas 79 - Texas 69	0.789	Arkansas 77 - Texas 74	7
Austin Peay 66 - Evansville 76	0.751	Austin Peay 69 - Evansville 77	-2
Binghamton 71 - Delaware State 62	0.71	Binghamton 85 - Delaware State 66	-10
Brigham Young 78 - Illinois 75	0.579	Brigham Young 73 - Illinois 75	5
Buffalo 76 - Canisius 72	0.689	Buffalo 87 - Canisius 94	11
California 78 - Cal Poly 56	0.97	California 81 - Cal Poly 55	-4
Charlotte 64 - Florida 84	0.974	Charlotte 46 - Florida 87	21
Cincinnati 87 - Fairleigh Dickinson 56	0.991	Cincinnati 119 - Fairleigh Dickinson 68	-20
Colorado 95 - Unranked 51		Colorado 81 - Unranked 71
Creighton 94 - Oral Roberts 61	0.994	Creighton 66 - Oral Roberts 65	32
Davidson 71 - Kansas 82	0.815	Davidson 71 - Kansas 89	7
Dayton 73 - Northwestern 71	0.599	Dayton 64 - Northwestern 67	5
Denver 76 - Northern Colorado 66	0.792	Denver 73 - Northern Colorado 70	7
DePaul 80 - Chicago State 59	0.958	DePaul 109 - Chicago State 61	-27
Detroit 69 - Western Kentucky 72	0.576	Detroit 85 - Western Kentucky 79	-9
Florida AM 63 - Jacksonville 77	0.9	Florida AM 72 - Jacksonville 75	-11
Florida International 69 - Northern Illinois 68	0.536	Florida International 53 - Northern Illinois 60	8
Georgia 84 - Charleston Southern 59	0.995	Georgia 84 - Charleston Southern 64	5
Grand Canyon 83 - Mississippi Valley State 62	0.962	Grand Canyon 72 - Mississippi Valley State 62	11
Hampton 65 - Winthrop 77	0.859	Hampton 79 - Winthrop 86	-5
Houston 88 - Texas Pan American 59	0.965	Houston 83 - Texas Pan American 58	4
Houston Baptist 88 - Unranked 60		Houston Baptist 103 - Unranked 77
Idaho 84 - Unranked 57		Idaho 87 - Unranked 61
Illinois Chicago 66 - Loyola Ill 78	0.864	Illinois Chicago 75 - Loyola Ill 81	-6
Indiana 75 - Butler 74	0.516	Indiana 78 - Butler 83	6
Iowa State 85 - Drake 55	0.964	Iowa State 97 - Drake 80	13
Jackson State 52 - Baylor 86	0.997	Jackson State 57 - Baylor 82	-9
Kansas State 74 - Colorado State 66	0.787	Kansas State 89 - Colorado State 70	-11
Kentucky 78 - North Carolina 77	0.52	Kentucky 103 - North Carolina 100	-2
La Salle 77 - Florida Gulf Coast 75	0.594	La Salle 84 - Florida Gulf Coast 80	-2
Louisiana State 82 - Texas Southern 69	0.821	Louisiana State 88 - Texas Southern 80	5
Louisiana Tech 84 - Grambling State 61	0.976	Louisiana Tech 89 - Grambling State 55	-11
Louisville 87 - Eastern Kentucky 60	0.991	Louisville 87 - Eastern Kentucky 56	-4
Loyola Marymount 72 - Incarnate Word 69	0.643	Loyola Marymount 91 - Incarnate Word 90	2
Manhattan 63 - Florida State 88	0.986	Manhattan 67 - Florida State 83	-9
Massachusetts 84 - Kennesaw St 59	0.997	Massachusetts 95 - Kennesaw St 77	7
Mcneese State 63 - North Carolina Central 77	0.856	Mcneese State 66 - North Carolina Central 74	-6
Michigan 85 - Maryland Eastern Shore 56	0.994	Michigan 98 - Maryland Eastern Shore 49	-20
Milwaukee 75 - Western Illinois 57	0.923	Milwaukee 59 - Western Illinois 75	34
Missouri 75 - Eastern Illinois 62	0.847	Missouri 64 - Eastern Illinois 67	16
Missouri State 78 - SE Missouri State 65	0.846	Missouri State 71 - SE Missouri State 66	8
Morehead State 68 - East Tennessee State 77	0.774	Morehead State 68 - East Tennessee State 78	1
New Mexico 80 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54	0.992	New Mexico 83 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 43	-14
New Orleans 70 - UL Lafayette 78	0.668	New Orleans 71 - UL Lafayette 76	-3
Niagara 64 - Saint Bonaventure 82	0.894	Niagara 69 - Saint Bonaventure 79	-8
Northern Iowa 74 - Iowa 72	0.541	Northern Iowa 46 - Iowa 69	25
Northwestern State 73 - UL Monroe 71	0.562	Northwestern State 68 - UL Monroe 64	-2
Notre Dame 76 - Purdue 75	0.504	Notre Dame 81 - Purdue 86	6
Ohio 75 - Cleveland State 62	0.831	Ohio 71 - Cleveland State 53	-5
Oklahoma 80 - Memphis 71	0.784	Oklahoma 94 - Memphis 99	14
Oregon 84 - Nevada Las Vegas 61	0.926	Oregon 83 - Nevada Las Vegas 63	3
Pacific 69 - Fresno State 70	0.52	Pacific 68 - Fresno State 70	1
Pittsburgh 81 - Rice 69	0.824	Pittsburgh 83 - Rice 73	2
Presbyterian 80 - Unranked 62		Presbyterian 90 - Unranked 48
Providence 80 - Wagner 56	0.974	Providence 76 - Wagner 54	2
Richmond 66 - Texas Tech 75	0.808	Richmond 72 - Texas Tech 79	-2
Sacramento State 64 - Abilene Christian 72	0.799	Sacramento State 88 - Abilene Christian 86	-10
Saint Francis Penn 69 - Stony Brook 72	0.613	Saint Francis Penn 63 - Stony Brook 75	9
Saint Louis 69 - SIU Edwardsville 66	0.598	Saint Louis 72 - SIU Edwardsville 58	-11
Sam Houston State 74 - North Texas 65	0.756	Sam Houston State 76 - North Texas 70	3
San Diego 86 - Unranked 56		San Diego 105 - Unranked 89
Seton Hall 80 - Delaware 59	0.971	Seton Hall 81 - Delaware 68	8
Siena 72 - Bucknell 75	0.611	Siena 71 - Bucknell 68	-6
South Dakota State 75 - Murray State 74	0.518	South Dakota State 88 - Murray State 84	-3
South Florida 58 - South Carolina 78	0.952	South Florida 66 - South Carolina 77	-9
Southern California 84 - Troy 57	0.997	Southern California 82 - Troy 77	22
Southern Utah 67 - IUPUI 76	0.795	Southern Utah 81 - IUPUI 101	11
Syracuse 77 - Georgetown 70	0.664	Syracuse 71 - Georgetown 78	14
Temple 83 - NJ Tech 62	0.939	Temple 68 - NJ Tech 63	16
Tennessee Martin 81 - Bethune Cookman 61	0.958	Tennessee Martin 97 - Bethune Cookman 72	-5
Tennessee Tech 74 - Lipscomb 73	0.547	Tennessee Tech 79 - Lipscomb 81	3
Texas AM 72 - Arizona 71	0.531	Texas AM 63 - Arizona 67	5
Texas El Paso 79 - Northern Arizona 63	0.867	Texas El Paso 74 - Northern Arizona 76	18
Toledo 80 - Southeast Louisiana 69	0.822	Toledo 78 - Southeast Louisiana 56	-11
Tulsa 74 - Texas State 59	0.847	Tulsa 74 - Texas State 59	0
UC Davis 84 - Unranked 60		UC Davis 87 - Unranked 64
UC Riverside 65 - Montana 73	0.752	UC Riverside 63 - Montana 71	0
UCLA 81 - Ohio State 74	0.685	UCLA 86 - Ohio State 73	-6
UMBC 73 - Towson 74	0.509	UMBC 72 - Towson 73	0
UNC Asheville 77 - Western Carolina 58	0.922	UNC Asheville 59 - Western Carolina 57	17
UNC Wilmington 80 - Radford 58	0.936	UNC Wilmington 100 - Radford 64	-14
Utah 88 - Prairie View 58	0.993	Utah 92 - Prairie View 60	-2
Valparaiso 76 - Indiana State 65	0.775	Valparaiso 89 - Indiana State 71	-7
Vanderbilt 73 - Chattanooga 69	0.602	Vanderbilt 76 - Chattanooga 74	2
Vermont 74 - Eastern Michigan 69	0.65	Vermont 82 - Eastern Michigan 74	-3
Virginia 81 - Robert Morris 45	0.999	Virginia 79 - Robert Morris 39	-4
Virginia Commonwealth 70 - Middle Tennessee 68	0.555	Virginia Commonwealth 80 - Middle Tennessee 77	-1
Virginia Tech 95 - The Citadel 68	0.975	Virginia Tech 113 - The Citadel 71	-15
Washington State 74 - Santa Clara 65	0.737	Washington State 69 - Santa Clara 68	8
Weber State 71 - Utah Valley 72	0.501	Weber State 93 - Utah Valley 85	-9
West Virginia 91 - UMKC 60	0.972	West Virginia 112 - UMKC 67	-14
Wichita State 84 - Oklahoma State 73	0.764	Wichita State 76 - Oklahoma State 93	28
Wyoming 81 - Cornell 62	0.955	Wyoming 97 - Cornell 78	0
Xavier 81 - Wake Forest 71	0.809	Xavier 69 - Wake Forest 65	6

GAMES OF 12-18

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 78 - Southern 62	0.95	Alabama Birmingham 75 - Southern 74	15
Auburn 80 - Mercer 64	0.88	Auburn 76 - Mercer 74	14
Baylor 103 - Unranked 43		Baylor 107 - Unranked 53
Boise State 82 - Idaho State 60	0.961	Boise State 82 - Idaho State 59	-1
Boston 70 - New Hampshire 72	0.544	Boston 73 - New Hampshire 69	-6
Boston College 76 - Sacred Heart 67	0.759	Boston College 82 - Sacred Heart 75	2
Central Florida 81 - Miami OH 56	0.983	Central Florida 80 - Miami OH 73	18
Clemson 78 - Alabama 65	0.84	Clemson 67 - Alabama 54	0
Connecticut 78 - North Florida 64	0.864	Connecticut 80 - North Florida 59	-7
Drexel 88 - Unranked 58		Drexel 84 - Unranked 44
Georgia Tech 82 - Alcorn State 57	0.995	Georgia Tech 74 - Alcorn State 50	1
Howard 83 - Unranked 61		Howard 67 - Unranked 60
Illinois State 73 - Saint Josephs 66	0.688	Illinois State 81 - Saint Josephs 72	-2
Kent State 78 - Wright State 69	0.789	Kent State 63 - Wright State 68	14
LIU Brooklyn 79 - Dartmouth 63	0.924	LIU Brooklyn 68 - Dartmouth 82	30
Maine 72 - Quinnipiac 74	0.577	Maine 75 - Quinnipiac 85	8
Michigan State 80 - Northeastern 62	0.92	Michigan State 73 - Northeastern 81	26
Montana State 71 - South Dakota 72	0.544	Montana State 68 - South Dakota 80	11
NC State 81 - Fairfield 64	0.931	NC State 99 - Fairfield 78	-4
Nebraska 80 - Gardner Webb 62	0.971	Nebraska 62 - Gardner Webb 70	26
Nicholls State 87 - Unranked 62		Nicholls State 83 - Unranked 66
North Carolina AT 60 - Rider 74	0.913	North Carolina AT 59 - Rider 60	-13
Northern Kentucky 76 - Eastern Washington 73	0.613	Northern Kentucky 70 - Eastern Washington 48	-19
Old Dominion 67 - Georgia State 63	0.595	Old Dominion 58 - Georgia State 46	-8
Omaha 82 - Cal State Fullerton 66	0.874	Omaha 102 - Cal State Fullerton 96	10
Oregon State 67 - Portland 76	0.764	Oregon State 45 - Portland 53	-1
Rhode Island 76 - Holy Cross 60	0.881	Rhode Island 65 - Holy Cross 54	5
Rutgers 73 - Fordham 61	0.768	Rutgers 68 - Fordham 53	-3
Saint Johns 74 - Penn State 73	0.515	Saint Johns 76 - Penn State 92	17
Saint Peters 69 - Elon 68	0.534	Saint Peters 53 - Elon 68	16
San Jose State 69 - Bowling Green 66	0.59	San Jose State 77 - Bowling Green 76	2
South Carolina Upstate 73 - Jacksonville State 68	0.652	South Carolina Upstate 66 - Jacksonville State 67	6
Stephen F Austin 87 - Unranked 54		Stephen F Austin 93 - Unranked 73
Stetson 68 - IPFW 81	0.798	Stetson 74 - IPFW 93	6
Tennessee 70 - Gonzaga 77	0.726	Tennessee 76 - Gonzaga 86	3
Texas AM CC 74 - Texas San Antonio 60	0.86	Texas AM CC 73 - Texas San Antonio 69	10
Texas Christian 80 - Texas Southern 64	0.916	Texas Christian 96 - Texas Southern 59	-21
UMass Lowell 75 - Central Connecticut State 69	0.678	UMass Lowell 86 - Central Connecticut State 69	-11
Washington 85 - Western Michigan 71	0.802	Washington 92 - Western Michigan 86	8

Number of DI Games: 213
Number Correct: 169 = 79.3%
Expected Number Correct: 171.571 = 80.5%
Average Error: 9.79
Average Signed Error: 2.22

WEEK 7 -- 12-19 to 12-25

GAMES OF 12-19

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 66 - Colorado 76	0.779	Air Force 68 - Colorado 75	-3
American 72 - Maryland Eastern Shore 65	0.705	American 61 - Maryland Eastern Shore 58	4
Ball State 85 - Longwood 62	0.943	Ball State 61 - Longwood 45	7
Bucknell 79 - Mt St Marys 64	0.917	Bucknell 81 - Mt St Marys 65	-1
Campbell 83 - Unranked 59		Campbell 90 - Unranked 59
Cleveland State 85 - Unranked 55		Cleveland State 79 - Unranked 62
Coastal Carolina 72 - Wofford 70	0.562	Coastal Carolina 74 - Wofford 75	3
Colorado State 78 - Loyola Marymount 65	0.879	Colorado State 66 - Loyola Marymount 69	16
Denver 76 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 54	0.978	Denver 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 52	0
DePaul 79 - SE Missouri State 66	0.831	DePaul 81 - SE Missouri State 78	10
Drake 71 - South Dakota State 73	0.564	Drake 75 - South Dakota State 83	6
Duke 83 - Tennessee State 58	0.975	Duke 65 - Tennessee State 55	15
Duquesne 76 - Jackson State 63	0.861	Duquesne 74 - Jackson State 62	1
Eastern Illinois 88 - Unranked 56		Eastern Illinois 101 - Unranked 49
Florida State 86 - Samford 62	0.974	Florida State 76 - Samford 68	16
Green Bay 77 - SIU Edwardsville 66	0.753	Green Bay 94 - SIU Edwardsville 92	9
Indiana 91 - Delaware State 52	0.992	Indiana 103 - Delaware State 56	-8
Jacksonville 86 - Unranked 57		Jacksonville 81 - Unranked 63
Lafayette 83 - Unranked 62		Lafayette 104 - Unranked 67
Lamar 68 - Liberty 70	0.569	Lamar 82 - Liberty 65	-19
Long Beach State 90 - Unranked 59		Long Beach State 97 - Unranked 78
Louisiana State 72 - College of Charleston 66	0.64	Louisiana State 75 - College of Charleston 65	-4
Marquette 92 - Saint Francis Penn 61	0.992	Marquette 78 - Saint Francis Penn 65	18
Marshall 97 - Unranked 61		Marshall 81 - Unranked 65
Milwaukee 68 - Belmont 73	0.65	Milwaukee 56 - Belmont 62	1
Mississippi 83 - Bradley 65	0.923	Mississippi 66 - Bradley 49	1
Mississippi State 78 - Southern Miss 58	0.925	Mississippi State 86 - Southern Miss 44	-22
Missouri State 81 - Chicago State 61	0.885	Missouri State 66 - Chicago State 46	0
Morehead State 78 - Central Arkansas 69	0.766	Morehead State 111 - Central Arkansas 85	-17
Nevada Las Vegas 74 - Southern Illinois 71	0.572	Nevada Las Vegas 68 - Southern Illinois 61	-4
New Mexico State 74 - UC Irvine 61	0.879	New Mexico State 85 - UC Irvine 79	7
Norfolk State 68 - Eastern Kentucky 75	0.758	Norfolk State 87 - Eastern Kentucky 80	-14
Notre Dame 91 - Colgate 54	0.999	Notre Dame 77 - Colgate 62	22
Oral Roberts 68 - Arkansas Little Rock 73	0.634	Oral Roberts 63 - Arkansas Little Rock 48	-20
Purdue 90 - Western Illinois 52	0.998	Purdue 82 - Western Illinois 50	6
Rice 80 - Northwestern State 65	0.895	Rice 100 - Northwestern State 93	8
Saint Bonaventure 80 - Army 66	0.899	Saint Bonaventure 92 - Army 83	5
Sam Houston State 91 - Unranked 56		Sam Houston State 119 - Unranked 81
San Francisco 77 - Abilene Christian 65	0.873	San Francisco 86 - Abilene Christian 51	-23
Seattle 79 - Southern Utah 65	0.906	Seattle 89 - Southern Utah 75	0
South Alabama 85 - Unranked 56		South Alabama 71 - Unranked 50
Southern California 87 - Cornell 59	0.996	Southern California 79 - Cornell 67	16
Southern Methodist 71 - Stanford 66	0.647	Southern Methodist 72 - Stanford 49	-18
Syracuse 81 - Eastern Michigan 66	0.818	Syracuse 105 - Eastern Michigan 57	-33
Tennessee Tech 67 - Furman 73	0.645	Tennessee Tech 62 - Furman 68	0
Tulane 81 - Mcneese State 67	0.88	Tulane 63 - Mcneese State 70	21
UMBC 88 - The Citadel 77	0.785	UMBC 120 - The Citadel 111	2
UNC Asheville 74 - UNC Greensboro 67	0.727	UNC Asheville 73 - UNC Greensboro 75	9
Utah State 77 - New Orleans 64	0.805	Utah State 76 - New Orleans 66	3
Western Carolina 68 - High Point 67	0.501	Western Carolina 70 - High Point 65	-4
William and Mary 89 - Savannah State 71	0.873	William and Mary 112 - Savannah State 85	-9
Wyoming 80 - Troy 65	0.906	Wyoming 72 - Troy 66	9

GAMES OF 12-20

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arizona 80 - New Mexico 63	0.943	Arizona 77 - New Mexico 46	-14
Arizona State 72 - Creighton 83	0.754	Arizona State 85 - Creighton 96	0
Arkansas 83 - North Dakota State 65	0.892	Arkansas 71 - North Dakota State 55	2
Austin Peay 79 - Lipscomb 75	0.586	Austin Peay 85 - Lipscomb 99	18
Brigham Young 88 - Idaho State 61	0.987	Brigham Young 84 - Idaho State 58	1
Charlotte 68 - Maryland 79	0.828	Charlotte 72 - Maryland 88	5
Coppin State 66 - UL Monroe 74	0.701	Coppin State 53 - UL Monroe 65	4
Delaware 73 - Marist 65	0.739	Delaware 59 - Marist 56	5
Georgia Tech 69 - Georgia 71	0.588	Georgia Tech 43 - Georgia 60	15
Grand Canyon 81 - Alcorn State 60	0.981	Grand Canyon 63 - Alcorn State 53	11
Illinois Chicago 80 - Northern Arizona 66	0.863	Illinois Chicago 75 - Northern Arizona 65	4
Iowa 84 - North Dakota 66	0.872	Iowa 84 - North Dakota 73	7
Iowa State 91 - Mississippi Valley State 53	0.991	Iowa State 88 - Mississippi Valley State 60	10
James Madison 64 - Richmond 75	0.845	James Madison 55 - Richmond 75	9
Louisiana Tech 75 - Florida Gulf Coast 70	0.669	Louisiana Tech 78 - Florida Gulf Coast 79	6
Monmouth 78 - Princeton 66	0.927	Monmouth 96 - Princeton 90	6
Nebraska 79 - Southern 61	0.945	Nebraska 81 - Southern 76	13
North Texas 71 - Southeast Louisiana 66	0.615	North Texas 71 - Southeast Louisiana 65	-1
Northern Colorado 75 - UC Riverside 65	0.828	Northern Colorado 77 - UC Riverside 61	-6
Northwestern 82 - IUPUI 62	0.94	Northwestern 87 - IUPUI 65	-2
Oakland 79 - Northeastern 69	0.793	Oakland 59 - Northeastern 61	12
Ohio State 88 - Youngstown State 62	0.953	Ohio State 77 - Youngstown State 40	-11
Oregon 83 - Fresno State 61	0.946	Oregon 75 - Fresno State 63	10
Pacific 76 - Kennesaw St 65	0.846	Pacific 69 - Kennesaw St 56	-2
Portland 79 - Portland State 68	0.851	Portland 75 - Portland State 77	13
Providence 86 - Maine 54	0.992	Providence 79 - Maine 59	12
Saint Francis Brooklyn 68 - Manhattan 73	0.661	Saint Francis Brooklyn 54 - Manhattan 61	2
Saint Marys 82 - Texas AM CC 59	0.954	Saint Marys 67 - Texas AM CC 46	2
South Carolina Upstate 87 - Unranked 59		South Carolina Upstate 91 - Unranked 59
South Florida 71 - Northern Illinois 67	0.648	South Florida 48 - Northern Illinois 59	15
Southern Methodist 76 - Albany 60	0.883	Southern Methodist 71 - Albany 53	-2
Texas State 82 - Unranked 57		Texas State 87 - Unranked 37
Toledo 72 - Loyola Ill 73	0.522	Toledo 74 - Loyola Ill 70	-5
UL Lafayette 81 - Pepperdine 67	0.89	UL Lafayette 90 - Pepperdine 64	-12
UMKC 75 - Tennessee Martin 74	0.522	UMKC 66 - Tennessee Martin 77	12
UNC Wilmington 78 - East Carolina 61	0.917	UNC Wilmington 81 - East Carolina 71	7
Virginia Military Institute 83 - Unranked 63		Virginia Military Institute 72 - Unranked 53
Virginia Tech 88 - Charleston Southern 58	0.996	Virginia Tech 87 - Charleston Southern 59	2
Washington 83 - Cal Poly 66	0.904	Washington 77 - Cal Poly 61	1
West Virginia 90 - Radford 54	0.978	West Virginia 84 - Radford 57	9
Winthrop 77 - Georgia Southern 69	0.745	Winthrop 86 - Georgia Southern 84	6
Xavier 87 - Eastern Washington 62	0.979	Xavier 85 - Eastern Washington 56	-4

GAMES OF 12-21

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Appalachian State 75 - Hampton 67	0.74	Appalachian State 88 - Hampton 67	-13
Arkansas State 72 - Alabama 66	0.676	Arkansas State 52 - Alabama 67	21
Army 77 - Binghamton 64	0.878	Army 71 - Binghamton 60	2
Auburn 76 - Oklahoma 79	0.556	Auburn 74 - Oklahoma 70	-7
Baylor 88 - Texas Southern 58	0.996	Baylor 89 - Texas Southern 63	4
Boise State 85 - Cal State Northridge 66	0.948	Boise State 79 - Cal State Northridge 62	2
Boston College 71 - Fairfield 70	0.516	Boston College 83 - Fairfield 89	7
Butler 80 - Vermont 61	0.946	Butler 81 - Vermont 69	7
California 61 - Virginia 71	0.816	California 52 - Virginia 56	-6
Central Florida 84 - Bethune Cookman 55	0.977	Central Florida 71 - Bethune Cookman 41	-1
Chattanooga 79 - Jacksonville State 62	0.898	Chattanooga 73 - Jacksonville State 57	1
Davidson 82 - Jacksonville 62	0.921	Davidson 75 - Jacksonville 60	5
Dayton 76 - Vanderbilt 68	0.745	Dayton 68 - Vanderbilt 63	3
Elon 61 - Duke 88	0.976	Elon 61 - Duke 72	-16
Florida 81 - Arkansas Little Rock 59	0.969	Florida 94 - Arkansas Little Rock 71	-1
Florida Atlantic 88 - Unranked 59		Florida Atlantic 79 - Unranked 57
Florida International 72 - North Florida 71	0.536	Florida International 78 - North Florida 54	-23
Fordham 73 - Central Connecticut State 60	0.797	Fordham 83 - Central Connecticut State 60	-10
Gonzaga 85 - South Dakota 57	0.998	Gonzaga 102 - South Dakota 65	-9
Houston 83 - Liberty 58	0.954	Houston 77 - Liberty 54	2
Illinois 76 - Missouri 64	0.79	Illinois 75 - Missouri 66	3
Indiana State 74 - Eastern Illinois 67	0.683	Indiana State 88 - Eastern Illinois 85	4
Iona 79 - UC Santa Barbara 64	0.892	Iona 73 - UC Santa Barbara 57	-1
Kansas State 81 - Gardner Webb 62	0.966	Kansas State 67 - Gardner Webb 54	6
Lamar 82 - Unranked 62		Lamar 126 - Unranked 75
LIU Brooklyn 74 - Niagara 69	0.638	LIU Brooklyn 66 - Niagara 75	14
Louisville 77 - Kentucky 74	0.593	Louisville 73 - Kentucky 70	0
Marquette 89 - SIU Edwardsville 62	0.952	Marquette 89 - SIU Edwardsville 56	-6
Memphis 85 - Incarnate Word 65	0.941	Memphis 95 - Incarnate Word 71	-4
Michigan State 77 - Oakland 71	0.692	Michigan State 77 - Oakland 65	-6
Middle Tennessee 77 - Georgia State 60	0.87	Middle Tennessee 56 - Georgia State 64	25
Montana State 73 - Central Michigan 79	0.691	Montana State 103 - Central Michigan 106	-3
Nevada 76 - Towson 68	0.747	Nevada 81 - Towson 72	-1
New Hampshire 88 - Unranked 54		New Hampshire 89 - Unranked 26
New Orleans 86 - Unranked 58		New Orleans 91 - Unranked 74
North Carolina 83 - Northern Iowa 62	0.917	North Carolina 85 - Northern Iowa 42	-22
Northern Kentucky 90 - Unranked 53		Northern Kentucky 97 - Unranked 73
Oregon State 65 - Kent State 73	0.759	Oregon State 69 - Kent State 50	-27
Penn State 83 - Morgan State 60	0.957	Penn State 96 - Morgan State 55	-18
Pittsburgh 85 - Omaha 67	0.914	Pittsburgh 94 - Omaha 75	-1
Purdue 90 - Norfolk State 54	0.998	Purdue 91 - Norfolk State 45	-10
Quinnipiac 77 - Drexel 72	0.643	Quinnipiac 74 - Drexel 91	22
Rice 93 - Unranked 56		Rice 83 - Unranked 63
Robert Morris 68 - Buffalo 72	0.656	Robert Morris 74 - Buffalo 71	-7
Sacred Heart 67 - Holy Cross 71	0.605	Sacred Heart 67 - Holy Cross 72	1
San Jose State 80 - Southern Utah 62	0.936	San Jose State 92 - Southern Utah 82	8
South Carolina 75 - Clemson 69	0.644	South Carolina 60 - Clemson 62	8
Syracuse 82 - Saint Johns 66	0.822	Syracuse 60 - Saint Johns 93	49
Texas 74 - Alabama Birmingham 66	0.765	Texas 96 - Alabama Birmingham 60	-28
Texas AM 86 - Saint Francis Penn 56	0.996	Texas AM 81 - Saint Francis Penn 58	7
Texas Christian 82 - Bradley 60	0.939	Texas Christian 74 - Bradley 42	-10
Texas El Paso 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 68	0.706	Texas El Paso 66 - Maryland Eastern Shore 71	12
Texas Pan American 86 - Unranked 62		Texas Pan American 86 - Unranked 55
Texas San Antonio 70 - Utah Valley 76	0.678	Texas San Antonio 66 - Utah Valley 60	-12
Texas Tech 90 - Longwood 50	0.998	Texas Tech 91 - Longwood 60	9
UC Irvine 64 - Akron 73	0.745	UC Irvine 80 - Akron 88	-1
UCLA 95 - Western Michigan 64	0.983	UCLA 82 - Western Michigan 68	17
UMass Lowell 73 - Boston 78	0.649	UMass Lowell 77 - Boston 75	-7
Utah State 74 - Weber State 64	0.783	Utah State 71 - Weber State 77	16
Villanova 89 - American 49	0.998	Villanova 90 - American 48	-2
Washington State 79 - Sacramento State 62	0.918	Washington State 74 - Sacramento State 66	9
Western Kentucky 66 - Ohio 74	0.702	Western Kentucky 67 - Ohio 66	-9

GAMES OF 12-22

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 75 - UC Davis 66	0.777	Air Force 77 - UC Davis 67	-1
Alcorn State 80 - Unranked 63		Alcorn State 83 - Unranked 68
Arizona State 85 - Central Arkansas 66	0.888	Arizona State 98 - Central Arkansas 62	-17
Ball State 81 - Alabama State 60	0.948	Ball State 73 - Alabama State 48	-4
Belmont 75 - Cleveland State 65	0.808	Belmont 88 - Cleveland State 61	-17
Bowling Green 83 - Alabama AM 56	0.972	Bowling Green 74 - Alabama AM 61	14
Brigham Young 78 - Cal State Bakersfield 67	0.837	Brigham Young 81 - Cal State Bakersfield 71	1
Brown 79 - Maine 68	0.801	Brown 82 - Maine 77	6
Bryant 77 - Dartmouth 67	0.806	Bryant 69 - Dartmouth 75	16
Bucknell 76 - Princeton 68	0.798	Bucknell 70 - Princeton 72	10
Cal State Fullerton 68 - Portland 78	0.836	Cal State Fullerton 77 - Portland 72	-15
Campbell 74 - Stetson 69	0.66	Campbell 81 - Stetson 72	-4
Chicago State 67 - SE Missouri State 74	0.664	Chicago State 74 - SE Missouri State 65	-16
Cincinnati 88 - Marshall 67	0.914	Cincinnati 93 - Marshall 91	19
Colorado 83 - Eastern Washington 66	0.918	Colorado 76 - Eastern Washington 68	9
Denver 77 - UC Riverside 58	0.96	Denver 73 - UC Riverside 55	1
DePaul 73 - Wyoming 76	0.603	DePaul 58 - Wyoming 72	11
Detroit 69 - IPFW 82	0.842	Detroit 86 - IPFW 93	-6
Drake 76 - Mississippi Valley State 65	0.858	Drake 101 - Mississippi Valley State 69	-21
Duquesne 77 - Colgate 62	0.923	Duquesne 70 - Colgate 57	2
East Carolina 76 - Presbyterian 54	0.936	East Carolina 76 - Presbyterian 56	2
East Tennessee State 74 - Tennessee 72	0.581	East Tennessee State 68 - Tennessee 72	6
Eastern Michigan 92 - Unranked 57		Eastern Michigan 101 - Unranked 48
Evansville 91 - Unranked 51		Evansville 68 - Unranked 55
Florida Gulf Coast 92 - Unranked 54		Florida Gulf Coast 107 - Unranked 50
George Mason 85 - Prairie View 59	0.956	George Mason 75 - Prairie View 59	10
Georgetown 80 - UNC Greensboro 65	0.864	Georgetown 78 - UNC Greensboro 56	-7
Georgia Southern 88 - Unranked 56		Georgia Southern 106 - Unranked 58
Georgia Tech 76 - Wofford 63	0.875	Georgia Tech 76 - Wofford 72	9
Grand Canyon 79 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 55	0.976	Grand Canyon 89 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 49	-16
Green Bay 90 - Unranked 58		Green Bay 108 - Unranked 59
Hartford 68 - Navy 71	0.581	Hartford 63 - Navy 54	-12
Hawaii 64 - Illinois State 74	0.824	Hawaii 45 - Illinois State 71	16
Hofstra 77 - Siena 72	0.636	Hofstra 84 - Siena 64	-15
Illinois Chicago 89 - Unranked 61		Illinois Chicago 91 - Unranked 53
Indiana 92 - Austin Peay 61	0.983	Indiana 97 - Austin Peay 62	-4
Iona 74 - Towson 70	0.629	Iona 69 - Towson 76	11
Iowa 88 - Delaware State 56	0.959	Iowa 89 - Delaware State 57	0
Kennesaw St 74 - North Carolina AT 65	0.811	Kennesaw St 68 - North Carolina AT 60	1
Lehigh 95 - Unranked 57		Lehigh 93 - Unranked 72
Long Beach State 71 - Colorado State 76	0.693	Long Beach State 56 - Colorado State 55	-6
Louisiana Tech 93 - Unranked 54		Louisiana Tech 95 - Unranked 53
Loyola Marymount 68 - Texas Arlington 74	0.697	Loyola Marymount 77 - Texas Arlington 80	-3
Manhattan 73 - Eastern Kentucky 74	0.537	Manhattan 81 - Eastern Kentucky 54	-28
Maryland Eastern Shore 63 - Akron 79	0.884	Maryland Eastern Shore 60 - Akron 76	0
Massachusetts 77 - Rider 64	0.889	Massachusetts 78 - Rider 67	2
Mercer 73 - La Salle 76	0.597	Mercer 96 - La Salle 98	-1
Miami 79 - George Washington 64	0.902	Miami 72 - George Washington 64	7
Miami OH 76 - Tennessee Tech 67	0.749	Miami OH 66 - Tennessee Tech 58	1
Michigan 80 - Furman 59	0.892	Michigan 68 - Furman 62	15
Mississippi 82 - South Alabama 63	0.956	Mississippi 92 - South Alabama 58	-15
Mississippi State 78 - Morehead State 65	0.839	Mississippi State 85 - Morehead State 76	4
Montana 77 - Pepperdine 66	0.808	Montana 71 - Pepperdine 70	10
Mt St Marys 78 - Coppin State 61	0.892	Mt St Marys 87 - Coppin State 49	-21
Murray State 74 - Wright State 72	0.561	Murray State 62 - Wright State 77	17
NC State 92 - Mcneese State 59	0.998	NC State 89 - Mcneese State 57	1
Nevada 81 - UC Santa Barbara 62	0.966	Nevada 67 - UC Santa Barbara 66	18
Nevada Las Vegas 65 - Kansas 87	0.935	Nevada Las Vegas 53 - Kansas 71	-4
NJ Tech 87 - Unranked 59		NJ Tech 92 - Unranked 50
North Texas 68 - San Diego 67	0.531	North Texas 68 - San Diego 69	2
Northwestern 86 - Houston Baptist 60	0.972	Northwestern 72 - Houston Baptist 63	17
Ohio State 78 - UNC Asheville 65	0.83	Ohio State 79 - UNC Asheville 77	11
Oklahoma State 88 - Texas AM CC 66	0.919	Oklahoma State 92 - Texas AM CC 70	0
Old Dominion 76 - Howard 55	0.974	Old Dominion 65 - Howard 46	2
Portland State 89 - Unranked 60		Portland State 118 - Unranked 59
Rhode Island 82 - William and Mary 64	0.92	Rhode Island 73 - William and Mary 62	7
Saint Bonaventure 80 - Canisius 68	0.85	Saint Bonaventure 101 - Canisius 106	17
Saint Josephs 83 - Lafayette 59	0.972	Saint Josephs 92 - Lafayette 63	-5
Saint Louis 69 - Winthrop 73	0.664	Saint Louis 55 - Winthrop 66	7
Saint Marys 88 - South Carolina State 57	0.984	Saint Marys 74 - South Carolina State 47	4
Sam Houston State 70 - Arkansas 81	0.827	Sam Houston State 56 - Arkansas 90	23
Samford 85 - Florida AM 58	0.984	Samford 83 - Florida AM 63	7
Seattle 72 - Washington 80	0.758	Seattle 72 - Washington 94	14
South Florida 71 - Delaware 66	0.671	South Florida 81 - Delaware 53	-23
Southern California 79 - Missouri State 67	0.866	Southern California 83 - Missouri State 75	4
Southern Illinois 76 - Tennessee Martin 70	0.736	Southern Illinois 78 - Tennessee Martin 70	-2
Southern Miss 54 - San Diego State 77	0.966	Southern Miss 51 - San Diego State 66	-8
Stanford 80 - Idaho 57	0.981	Stanford 86 - Idaho 80	17
Temple 75 - Yale 67	0.751	Temple 83 - Yale 77	2
Texas El Paso 67 - UC Irvine 71	0.625	Texas El Paso 57 - UC Irvine 62	1
Troy 72 - Cornell 68	0.648	Troy 92 - Cornell 84	-4
Tulsa 72 - Stephen F Austin 65	0.698	Tulsa 74 - Stephen F Austin 51	-16
Utah 79 - San Francisco 69	0.839	Utah 86 - San Francisco 89	13
Valparaiso 80 - Santa Clara 61	0.947	Valparaiso 80 - Santa Clara 87	26
Virginia Commonwealth 85 - UL Monroe 60	0.981	Virginia Commonwealth 78 - UL Monroe 65	12
Wagner 86 - Unranked 56		Wagner 94 - Unranked 42
Wake Forest 81 - Louisiana State 74	0.706	Wake Forest 110 - Louisiana State 76	-27
Western Carolina 56 - College of Charleston 69	0.794	Western Carolina 59 - College of Charleston 77	5
Wichita State 87 - South Dakota State 61	0.961	Wichita State 89 - South Dakota State 67	4

GAMES OF 12-23

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Boston College 63 - Providence 76	0.856	Boston College 79 - Providence 67	-25
Connecticut 73 - Auburn 71	0.542	Connecticut 67 - Auburn 70	5
Cornell 70 - SE Missouri State 72	0.599	Cornell 78 - SE Missouri State 62	-18
Dayton 88 - Virginia Military Institute 57	0.994	Dayton 92 - Virginia Military Institute 56	-5
Hawaii 67 - Utah 77	0.813	Hawaii 52 - Utah 66	4
Holy Cross 74 - Marist 62	0.792	Holy Cross 68 - Marist 59	3
Houston 80 - Harvard 66	0.833	Houston 56 - Harvard 57	15
Illinois State 76 - San Francisco 65	0.847	Illinois State 58 - San Francisco 66	19
James Madison 70 - UMBC 73	0.605	James Madison 61 - UMBC 62	-2
Loyola MD 77 - UMass Lowell 67	0.812	Loyola MD 69 - UMass Lowell 60	1
Minnesota 76 - Arkansas State 65	0.785	Minnesota 82 - Arkansas State 75	4
Missouri State 74 - DePaul 73	0.513	Missouri State 69 - DePaul 58	-10
Oakland 73 - Georgia 74	0.52	Oakland 86 - Georgia 79	-8
Oral Roberts 70 - Richmond 75	0.674	Oral Roberts 87 - Richmond 72	-20
Pacific 85 - Unranked 57		Pacific 102 - Unranked 54
Radford 83 - Unranked 57		Radford 82 - Unranked 58
Saint Francis Brooklyn 64 - Saint Peters 67	0.582	Saint Francis Brooklyn 58 - Saint Peters 65	4
San Diego State 69 - Tulsa 66	0.564	San Diego State 82 - Tulsa 63	-16
Seton Hall 76 - Rutgers 66	0.807	Seton Hall 72 - Rutgers 61	-1
Southern California 79 - Wyoming 70	0.81	Southern California 94 - Wyoming 92	7
Southern Miss 60 - Stephen F Austin 73	0.852	Southern Miss 64 - Stephen F Austin 67	-10
Troy 74 - Chicago State 65	0.693	Troy 83 - Chicago State 65	-9
Tulane 72 - Texas State 66	0.661	Tulane 66 - Texas State 69	9
Utah Valley 93 - Unranked 62		Utah Valley 72 - Unranked 47
West Virginia 87 - Northern Kentucky 60	0.949	West Virginia 92 - Northern Kentucky 61	-4
Wisconsin 94 - Florida AM 48	0.999	Wisconsin 90 - Florida AM 37	-7

GAMES OF 12-25

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Hawaii 76 - Southern Miss 59	0.931	Hawaii 60 - Southern Miss 46	3
Illinois State 72 - Tulsa 66	0.695	Illinois State 68 - Tulsa 56	-6
San Francisco 65 - San Diego State 72	0.72	San Francisco 48 - San Diego State 62	7
Utah 77 - Stephen F Austin 65	0.843	Utah 74 - Stephen F Austin 66	4

Number of DI Games: 241
Number Correct: 190 = 78.8%
Expected Number Correct: 196.407 = 81.4%
Average Error: 9.02
Average Signed Error: 0.9

WEEK 8 -- 12-26 to 1-1

GAMES OF 12-26

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Loyola Marymount 80 - Morgan State 63	0.9	Loyola Marymount 70 - Morgan State 49	-4

GAMES OF 12-27

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Maryland 73 - Illinois 69	0.659	Maryland 84 - Illinois 59	-21
Memphis 71 - Southern Methodist 73	0.565	Memphis 54 - Southern Methodist 58	2
Minnesota 75 - Michigan State 67	0.724	Minnesota 74 - Michigan State 75	9
New Mexico State 93 - Unranked 52		New Mexico State 84 - Unranked 50
Penn State 71 - Northwestern 72	0.527	Penn State 77 - Northwestern 87	9
South Carolina 97 - Unranked 46		South Carolina 90 - Unranked 62
Syracuse 83 - Cornell 61	0.882	Syracuse 80 - Cornell 56	-2
Tennessee State 88 - Unranked 50		Tennessee State 81 - Unranked 50
Texas 78 - Kent State 64	0.814	Texas 58 - Kent State 63	19
UC Santa Barbara 65 - Cal State Bakersfield 71	0.72	UC Santa Barbara 62 - Cal State Bakersfield 60	-8
Virginia Commonwealth 86 - Howard 57	0.99	Virginia Commonwealth 85 - Howard 51	-5
Wisconsin 76 - Rutgers 59	0.917	Wisconsin 72 - Rutgers 52	-3

GAMES OF 12-28

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 91 - Unranked 55		Alabama Birmingham 98 - Unranked 66
Clemson 79 - UNC Wilmington 70	0.748	Clemson 87 - UNC Wilmington 73	-5
Colorado State 74 - Nevada Las Vegas 68	0.658	Colorado State 91 - Nevada Las Vegas 77	-8
Connecticut 69 - Houston 70	0.541	Connecticut 46 - Houston 62	15
Creighton 81 - Seton Hall 71	0.793	Creighton 89 - Seton Hall 75	-4
Davidson 84 - Hartford 60	0.964	Davidson 105 - Hartford 75	-6
Delaware 65 - Iona 74	0.739	Delaware 63 - Iona 54	-18
Denver 73 - Oral Roberts 67	0.662	Denver 77 - Oral Roberts 73	2
East Carolina 71 - South Florida 64	0.709	East Carolina 60 - South Florida 49	-4
Eastern Kentucky 90 - Unranked 59		Eastern Kentucky 70 - Unranked 51
Elon 91 - Unranked 56		Elon 89 - Unranked 60
Florida Atlantic 69 - Florida Gulf Coast 75	0.656	Florida Atlantic 62 - Florida Gulf Coast 75	7
Florida State 83 - Wake Forest 74	0.749	Florida State 88 - Wake Forest 72	-7
Georgia State 71 - Massachusetts 70	0.525	Georgia State 65 - Massachusetts 74	10
Georgia Tech 80 - North Carolina AT 54	0.987	Georgia Tech 59 - North Carolina AT 52	19
Grand Canyon 76 - Cal Poly 64	0.829	Grand Canyon 71 - Cal Poly 64	5
Indiana 80 - Nebraska 64	0.905	Indiana 83 - Nebraska 87	20
Indiana State 67 - Wichita State 80	0.8	Indiana State 72 - Wichita State 80	-5
IUPUI 89 - Unranked 58		IUPUI 81 - Unranked 60
Jacksonville 86 - Unranked 58		Jacksonville 93 - Unranked 64
James Madison 81 - Unranked 58		James Madison 82 - Unranked 65
Kennesaw St 68 - Mercer 76	0.765	Kennesaw St 76 - Mercer 80	-4
Louisville 69 - Virginia 64	0.647	Louisville 53 - Virginia 61	13
Marquette 79 - Georgetown 75	0.611	Marquette 76 - Georgetown 66	-6
Miami 86 - Columbia 59	0.986	Miami 78 - Columbia 67	16
Morehead State 89 - Unranked 60		Morehead State 120 - Unranked 77
NC State 82 - Rider 63	0.961	NC State 99 - Rider 71	-9
Nevada 80 - San Jose State 63	0.916	Nevada 80 - San Jose State 55	-8
New Mexico 75 - Fresno State 69	0.673	New Mexico 78 - Fresno State 73	1
Nicholls State 86 - Unranked 62		Nicholls State 88 - Unranked 64
North Carolina 86 - Monmouth 67	0.919	North Carolina 102 - Monmouth 74	-9
North Carolina Central 88 - Unranked 54		North Carolina Central 88 - Unranked 54
Northern Iowa 71 - Missouri State 65	0.664	Northern Iowa 64 - Missouri State 68	10
Northwestern State 87 - Unranked 60		Northwestern State 86 - Unranked 66
Notre Dame 83 - Saint Peters 56	0.971	Notre Dame 63 - Saint Peters 55	19
Oregon 78 - UCLA 77	0.532	Oregon 89 - UCLA 87	-1
Oregon State 62 - Southern California 79	0.9	Oregon State 63 - Southern California 70	-10
Pennsylvania 75 - Drexel 67	0.719	Pennsylvania 75 - Drexel 67	0
Pittsburgh 86 - Marshall 71	0.838	Pittsburgh 112 - Marshall 106	9
Prairie View 82 - Unranked 63		Prairie View 87 - Unranked 57
Princeton 80 - Hampton 61	0.966	Princeton 77 - Hampton 49	-9
Purdue 83 - Iowa 68	0.85	Purdue 89 - Iowa 67	-7
Samford 89 - Unranked 55		Samford 94 - Unranked 74
Seattle 73 - UC Davis 69	0.664	Seattle 65 - UC Davis 72	11
SIU Edwardsville 84 - Unranked 60		SIU Edwardsville 85 - Unranked 67
South Dakota State 72 - North Dakota State 71	0.512	South Dakota State 69 - North Dakota State 80	12
Southern 75 - Southeast Louisiana 70	0.647	Southern 53 - Southeast Louisiana 64	16
Stony Brook 74 - NJ Tech 68	0.651	Stony Brook 61 - NJ Tech 64	9
Temple 71 - Cincinnati 73	0.56	Temple 50 - Cincinnati 56	4
The Citadel 76 - UNC Greensboro 84	0.72	The Citadel 87 - UNC Greensboro 95	0
Tulane 63 - Central Florida 76	0.823	Tulane 72 - Central Florida 85	0
UC Riverside 68 - Utah Valley 77	0.76	UC Riverside 64 - Utah Valley 73	0
UL Monroe 79 - Grambling State 63	0.922	UL Monroe 81 - Grambling State 45	-20
Utah State 70 - Boise State 72	0.573	Utah State 80 - Boise State 83	1
Valparaiso 84 - Chicago State 58	0.941	Valparaiso 80 - Chicago State 61	7
Villanova 88 - DePaul 57	0.99	Villanova 68 - DePaul 65	28
Virginia Tech 85 - UMBC 64	0.971	Virginia Tech 87 - UMBC 70	4
Western Carolina 82 - Unranked 57		Western Carolina 87 - Unranked 71
Western Kentucky 78 - Austin Peay 67	0.744	Western Kentucky 97 - Austin Peay 92	6
Wyoming 79 - Air Force 66	0.89	Wyoming 84 - Air Force 72	1
Xavier 76 - Providence 65	0.793	Xavier 82 - Providence 56	-15

GAMES OF 12-29

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 82 - Stetson 58	0.981	Alabama 83 - Stetson 60	1
Alabama State 78 - Unranked 62		Alabama State 75 - Unranked 68
Arkansas 76 - Florida 75	0.51	Arkansas 72 - Florida 81	10
Auburn 74 - Georgia 72	0.572	Auburn 84 - Georgia 96	14
Bradley 68 - Southern Illinois 71	0.585	Bradley 60 - Southern Illinois 51	-12
Brigham Young 83 - Santa Clara 66	0.912	Brigham Young 89 - Santa Clara 59	-13
Brown 78 - Quinnipiac 74	0.61	Brown 66 - Quinnipiac 61	-1
Cal State Northridge 79 - Morgan State 71	0.728	Cal State Northridge 82 - Morgan State 61	-13
Charleston Southern 68 - Winthrop 80	0.909	Charleston Southern 68 - Winthrop 84	4
Cleveland State 70 - Green Bay 71	0.509	Cleveland State 75 - Green Bay 76	0
Cornell 77 - UMass Lowell 71	0.726	Cornell 96 - UMass Lowell 98	8
Detroit 69 - Northern Kentucky 76	0.732	Detroit 70 - Northern Kentucky 81	4
Drake 65 - Loyola Ill 77	0.865	Drake 102 - Loyola Ill 98	-16
East Tennessee State 93 - Savannah State 64	0.976	East Tennessee State 92 - Savannah State 71	8
Eastern Michigan 77 - Long Beach State 73	0.593	Eastern Michigan 98 - Long Beach State 72	-22
Fairleigh Dickinson 77 - Saint Francis Penn 72	0.627	Fairleigh Dickinson 77 - Saint Francis Penn 65	-7
Gardner Webb 77 - High Point 67	0.773	Gardner Webb 64 - High Point 71	17
Gonzaga 89 - Pepperdine 54	0.998	Gonzaga 92 - Pepperdine 62	5
Hawaii 74 - Delaware State 59	0.849	Hawaii 77 - Delaware State 66	4
Illinois State 72 - Evansville 64	0.72	Illinois State 62 - Evansville 50	-4
IPFW 83 - Western Illinois 60	0.957	IPFW 91 - Western Illinois 93	25
Lamar 85 - Unranked 62		Lamar 90 - Unranked 63
LIU Brooklyn 71 - Mt St Marys 69	0.542	LIU Brooklyn 65 - Mt St Marys 67	4
Longwood 65 - Campbell 72	0.69	Longwood 79 - Campbell 77	-9
Louisiana State 76 - Vanderbilt 74	0.569	Louisiana State 89 - Vanderbilt 96	9
Loyola Marymount 64 - Saint Marys 77	0.868	Loyola Marymount 60 - Saint Marys 72	-1
Miami OH 86 - Unranked 58		Miami OH 89 - Unranked 69
Mississippi 73 - Kentucky 83	0.803	Mississippi 76 - Kentucky 99	13
Mississippi State 80 - UMKC 64	0.854	Mississippi State 77 - UMKC 54	-7
Missouri 80 - Lipscomb 67	0.802	Missouri 76 - Lipscomb 81	18
Montana 79 - Idaho State 61	0.914	Montana 74 - Idaho State 62	6
Montana State 70 - Weber State 73	0.611	Montana State 75 - Weber State 87	9
Murray State 90 - Unranked 59		Murray State 99 - Unranked 83
New Orleans 74 - Abilene Christian 65	0.701	New Orleans 75 - Abilene Christian 66	0
North Florida 71 - Ball State 75	0.622	North Florida 68 - Ball State 73	1
Oakland 78 - Wright State 69	0.793	Oakland 81 - Wright State 62	-10
Old Dominion 75 - William and Mary 62	0.867	Old Dominion 54 - William and Mary 65	24
Pacific 70 - Portland 69	0.538	Pacific 76 - Portland 80	5
Portland State 78 - North Dakota 71	0.686	Portland State 99 - North Dakota 62	-30
Presbyterian 64 - Liberty 68	0.604	Presbyterian 61 - Liberty 77	12
Radford 67 - UNC Asheville 72	0.619	Radford 80 - UNC Asheville 77	-8
Sacramento State 69 - Northern Colorado 73	0.64	Sacramento State 53 - Northern Colorado 69	12
Sacred Heart 70 - Robert Morris 69	0.53	Sacred Heart 67 - Robert Morris 78	12
Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - Bryant 70	0.536	Saint Francis Brooklyn 80 - Bryant 77	-4
Saint Johns 68 - Butler 80	0.747	Saint Johns 76 - Butler 73	-15
Sam Houston State 77 - Houston Baptist 68	0.764	Sam Houston State 65 - Houston Baptist 79	23
San Francisco 75 - San Diego 64	0.826	San Francisco 80 - San Diego 74	5
SE Missouri State 84 - Unranked 61		SE Missouri State 89 - Unranked 75
Siena 69 - Vermont 72	0.6	Siena 60 - Vermont 76	13
South Dakota 75 - Omaha 72	0.613	South Dakota 86 - Omaha 69	-14
Tennessee Martin 75 - Jacksonville State 67	0.747	Tennessee Martin 72 - Jacksonville State 90	26
Texas AM 75 - Tennessee 69	0.706	Texas AM 63 - Tennessee 73	16
Texas Pan American 87 - Unranked 62		Texas Pan American 97 - Unranked 81
Texas San Antonio 81 - Unranked 58		Texas San Antonio 79 - Unranked 75
Wagner 76 - Central Connecticut State 60	0.857	Wagner 71 - Central Connecticut State 46	-9
Western Michigan 84 - Alabama AM 59	0.941	Western Michigan 80 - Alabama AM 50	-5
Youngstown State 72 - Milwaukee 70	0.567	Youngstown State 88 - Milwaukee 87	1

GAMES OF 12-30

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
American 64 - Loyola MD 67	0.572	American 66 - Loyola MD 68	-1
Army 74 - Lehigh 76	0.546	Army 59 - Lehigh 66	5
Binghamton 83 - Unranked 58		Binghamton 101 - Unranked 54
Boston 70 - Holy Cross 68	0.559	Boston 61 - Holy Cross 55	-4
Bowling Green 73 - Norfolk State 64	0.779	Bowling Green 86 - Norfolk State 77	0
Buffalo 81 - Maine 65	0.915	Buffalo 79 - Maine 60	-3
Cal State Fullerton 85 - Unranked 61		Cal State Fullerton 99 - Unranked 56
California 68 - Arizona 71	0.617	California 62 - Arizona 67	2
Central Michigan 83 - Chicago State 64	0.871	Central Michigan 90 - Chicago State 82	11
Columbia 70 - Albany 72	0.555	Columbia 67 - Albany 70	1
Dayton 82 - La Salle 71	0.87	Dayton 66 - La Salle 55	0
Fordham 68 - Duquesne 67	0.532	Fordham 72 - Duquesne 75	4
George Mason 72 - Virginia Commonwealth 75	0.59	George Mason 64 - Virginia Commonwealth 73	6
Hampton 82 - Unranked 61		Hampton 94 - Unranked 69
Harvard 81 - Howard 59	0.962	Harvard 67 - Howard 46	1
Idaho 72 - Eastern Washington 73	0.512	Idaho 62 - Eastern Washington 69	6
Illinois Chicago 71 - Valparaiso 79	0.77	Illinois Chicago 59 - Valparaiso 70	3
Iowa State 73 - Texas Tech 67	0.645	Iowa State 63 - Texas Tech 56	-1
Jackson State 82 - Unranked 59		Jackson State 94 - Unranked 62
Kansas State 74 - Texas 65	0.735	Kansas State 65 - Texas 62	6
Lafayette 71 - Colgate 68	0.586	Lafayette 75 - Colgate 85	13
Massachusetts 75 - Saint Bonaventure 72	0.617	Massachusetts 77 - Saint Bonaventure 89	15
Memphis 71 - South Carolina 74	0.608	Memphis 70 - South Carolina 54	-19
Michigan State 72 - Northwestern 70	0.565	Michigan State 61 - Northwestern 52	-7
Navy 65 - Bucknell 73	0.715	Navy 55 - Bucknell 59	-4
New Mexico State 82 - Texas El Paso 59	0.978	New Mexico State 79 - Texas El Paso 70	14
North Carolina Central 88 - Unranked 54		North Carolina Central 101 - Unranked 66
Ohio 91 - Unranked 53		Ohio 77 - Unranked 50
Oklahoma 70 - Baylor 79	0.777	Oklahoma 50 - Baylor 76	17
Oklahoma State 78 - West Virginia 82	0.596	Oklahoma State 75 - West Virginia 92	13
Oregon 77 - Southern California 70	0.727	Oregon 84 - Southern California 61	-16
Oregon State 63 - UCLA 86	0.943	Oregon State 63 - UCLA 76	-10
Pennsylvania 74 - Fairfield 68	0.674	Pennsylvania 74 - Fairfield 68	0
Saint Josephs 75 - George Washington 70	0.662	Saint Josephs 68 - George Washington 63	0
Saint Louis 60 - Rhode Island 74	0.889	Saint Louis 56 - Rhode Island 90	20
South Carolina Upstate 87 - Unranked 59		South Carolina Upstate 93 - Unranked 64
Stanford 79 - Arizona State 70	0.704	Stanford 93 - Arizona State 98	14
Texas Christian 72 - Kansas 77	0.67	Texas Christian 80 - Kansas 86	1
Toledo 94 - Unranked 56		Toledo 98 - Unranked 58
UC Irvine 87 - Unranked 55		UC Irvine 101 - Unranked 43
UC Santa Barbara 72 - Seattle 68	0.665	UC Santa Barbara 76 - Seattle 80	8

GAMES OF 12-31

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 71 - Utah State 70	0.528	Air Force 78 - Utah State 73	-4
Arkansas Little Rock 74 - UL Monroe 64	0.797	Arkansas Little Rock 79 - UL Monroe 75	6
Arkansas State 77 - UL Lafayette 72	0.639	Arkansas State 74 - UL Lafayette 71	2
Austin Peay 69 - Belmont 80	0.804	Austin Peay 77 - Belmont 82	-6
Boise State 74 - Colorado State 67	0.749	Boise State 74 - Colorado State 73	6
Brown 73 - Stony Brook 72	0.534	Brown 89 - Stony Brook 92	4
Campbell 73 - Presbyterian 60	0.84	Campbell 69 - Presbyterian 58	2
Central Arkansas 69 - Sam Houston State 79	0.746	Central Arkansas 67 - Sam Houston State 65	-12
Central Florida 68 - Temple 69	0.507	Central Florida 77 - Temple 53	-25
Charleston Southern 71 - Liberty 68	0.59	Charleston Southern 70 - Liberty 81	14
Charlotte 76 - North Texas 67	0.744	Charlotte 101 - North Texas 76	-16
Cleveland State 69 - Milwaukee 64	0.637	Cleveland State 62 - Milwaukee 53	-4
Creighton 74 - Villanova 77	0.603	Creighton 70 - Villanova 80	7
Dartmouth 65 - New Hampshire 73	0.718	Dartmouth 63 - New Hampshire 62	-9
Davidson 79 - Richmond 66	0.852	Davidson 80 - Richmond 82	15
Delaware 68 - Hofstra 74	0.643	Delaware 56 - Hofstra 58	-4
Detroit 69 - Wright State 77	0.751	Detroit 72 - Wright State 85	5
East Carolina 61 - Southern Methodist 72	0.806	East Carolina 44 - Southern Methodist 75	20
East Tennessee State 85 - Virginia Military Institute 60	0.975	East Tennessee State 102 - Virginia Military Institute 75	-2
Eastern Illinois 74 - Jacksonville State 67	0.724	Eastern Illinois 56 - Jacksonville State 57	8
Elon 68 - College of Charleston 69	0.546	Elon 54 - College of Charleston 66	11
Fairleigh Dickinson 71 - Robert Morris 72	0.542	Fairleigh Dickinson 81 - Robert Morris 77	-5
Florida Atlantic 72 - Western Kentucky 68	0.607	Florida Atlantic 54 - Western Kentucky 69	19
Florida Gulf Coast 92 - Unranked 53		Florida Gulf Coast 101 - Unranked 49
Florida International 73 - Marshall 80	0.666	Florida International 70 - Marshall 94	17
Fresno State 70 - Nevada 74	0.637	Fresno State 77 - Nevada 76	-5
Furman 86 - The Citadel 72	0.819	Furman 83 - The Citadel 68	-1
Georgetown 73 - Xavier 74	0.542	Georgetown 76 - Xavier 81	4
Georgia Southern 70 - Georgia State 71	0.526	Georgia Southern 88 - Georgia State 65	-24
Georgia Tech 66 - North Carolina 82	0.872	Georgia Tech 75 - North Carolina 63	-28
High Point 79 - Longwood 62	0.885	High Point 55 - Longwood 60	22
Indiana 70 - Louisville 77	0.729	Indiana 62 - Louisville 77	8
Iona 81 - Marist 62	0.929	Iona 93 - Marist 80	6
IPFW 80 - Oral Roberts 68	0.77	IPFW 102 - Oral Roberts 91	1
IUPUI 77 - Western Illinois 63	0.874	IUPUI 89 - Western Illinois 71	-4
Jacksonville 76 - South Carolina State 67	0.73	Jacksonville 89 - South Carolina State 85	5
James Madison 66 - Drexel 71	0.645	James Madison 78 - Drexel 67	-16
Kennesaw St 84 - Unranked 62		Kennesaw St 89 - Unranked 76
LIU Brooklyn 75 - Bryant 69	0.657	LIU Brooklyn 74 - Bryant 63	-5
Loyola Marymount 72 - Brigham Young 79	0.712	Loyola Marymount 76 - Brigham Young 81	-2
Miami 78 - NC State 70	0.763	Miami 81 - NC State 63	-10
Missouri State 74 - Indiana State 69	0.648	Missouri State 81 - Indiana State 75	-1
Monmouth 80 - Rider 64	0.955	Monmouth 90 - Rider 93	19
Montana 73 - Weber State 67	0.674	Montana 81 - Weber State 84	9
Montana State 76 - Idaho State 68	0.768	Montana State 80 - Idaho State 63	-9
Mt St Marys 70 - Wagner 67	0.614	Mt St Marys 57 - Wagner 56	2
Murray State 68 - Tennessee State 71	0.591	Murray State 92 - Tennessee State 83	-12
Nevada Las Vegas 72 - Wyoming 74	0.549	Nevada Las Vegas 81 - Wyoming 75	-8
New Orleans 69 - Texas AM CC 70	0.53	New Orleans 73 - Texas AM CC 72	-2
Nicholls State 75 - Incarnate Word 74	0.536	Nicholls State 94 - Incarnate Word 84	-9
North Dakota State 75 - Omaha 70	0.654	North Dakota State 82 - Omaha 70	-7
Northeastern 78 - William and Mary 69	0.766	Northeastern 84 - William and Mary 64	-11
Northern Arizona 76 - Southern Utah 70	0.676	Northern Arizona 80 - Southern Utah 93	19
Northern Illinois 87 - Unranked 54		Northern Illinois 77 - Unranked 62
Northwestern State 77 - Mcneese State 68	0.779	Northwestern State 72 - Mcneese State 79	16
Oakland 77 - Northern Kentucky 68	0.767	Oakland 76 - Northern Kentucky 65	-2
Old Dominion 73 - Rice 65	0.792	Old Dominion 62 - Rice 56	2
Pacific 58 - Gonzaga 82	0.983	Pacific 61 - Gonzaga 81	-4
Pittsburgh 73 - Notre Dame 74	0.519	Pittsburgh 77 - Notre Dame 78	0
Portland 76 - Pepperdine 66	0.816	Portland 73 - Pepperdine 60	-3
Portland State 78 - Northern Colorado 69	0.781	Portland State 59 - Northern Colorado 73	23
Princeton 77 - Cal Poly 63	0.917	Princeton 81 - Cal Poly 52	-15
Sacramento State 69 - North Dakota 75	0.723	Sacramento State 82 - North Dakota 90	2
Sacred Heart 76 - Saint Francis Penn 69	0.715	Sacred Heart 67 - Saint Francis Penn 87	27
Saint Francis Brooklyn 70 - Central Connecticut State 65	0.668	Saint Francis Brooklyn 86 - Central Connecticut State 77	-4
Saint Marys 80 - San Diego 57	0.982	Saint Marys 72 - San Diego 60	11
Santa Clara 69 - San Francisco 72	0.595	Santa Clara 72 - San Francisco 58	-17
SE Missouri State 72 - Eastern Kentucky 75	0.59	SE Missouri State 81 - Eastern Kentucky 48	-36
SIU Edwardsville 73 - Tennessee Tech 67	0.65	SIU Edwardsville 66 - Tennessee Tech 72	12
South Dakota State 74 - South Dakota 71	0.584	South Dakota State 73 - South Dakota 72	2
South Florida 66 - Houston 76	0.743	South Florida 56 - Houston 70	4
Southeast Louisiana 74 - Abilene Christian 67	0.677	Southeast Louisiana 75 - Abilene Christian 53	-15
Stephen F Austin 73 - Houston Baptist 68	0.632	Stephen F Austin 61 - Houston Baptist 51	-5
Tennessee Martin 78 - Morehead State 71	0.759	Tennessee Martin 81 - Morehead State 77	3
Texas Arlington 82 - Coastal Carolina 63	0.897	Texas Arlington 90 - Coastal Carolina 69	-2
Texas Pan American 87 - Unranked 62		Texas Pan American 96 - Unranked 78
Texas State 71 - Appalachian State 69	0.553	Texas State 67 - Appalachian State 58	-7
Towson 70 - UNC Wilmington 76	0.687	Towson 67 - UNC Wilmington 76	3
Tulsa 69 - Connecticut 67	0.547	Tulsa 61 - Connecticut 59	0
UC Davis 74 - Utah Valley 75	0.501	UC Davis 83 - Utah Valley 69	-15
UC Riverside 63 - Grand Canyon 76	0.875	UC Riverside 76 - Grand Canyon 56	-33
UNC Asheville 77 - Gardner Webb 68	0.777	UNC Asheville 90 - Gardner Webb 85	4
UNC Greensboro 72 - Samford 68	0.647	UNC Greensboro 62 - Samford 73	15
Virginia 75 - Florida State 65	0.803	Virginia 58 - Florida State 60	12
Virginia Tech 70 - Duke 77	0.723	Virginia Tech 89 - Duke 75	-21
Wake Forest 78 - Clemson 77	0.523	Wake Forest 68 - Clemson 73	6
Western Carolina 62 - Chattanooga 74	0.814	Western Carolina 48 - Chattanooga 64	4
Winthrop 77 - Radford 64	0.823	Winthrop 80 - Radford 82	15
Wofford 71 - Mercer 70	0.545	Wofford 88 - Mercer 71	-16
Youngstown State 74 - Green Bay 77	0.583	Youngstown State 77 - Green Bay 90	10

GAMES OF 1-1

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Boston College 70 - Syracuse 75	0.596	Boston College 96 - Syracuse 81	-20
Butler 77 - Providence 64	0.82	Butler 78 - Providence 61	-4
California 80 - Arizona State 70	0.76	California 81 - Arizona State 65	-6
Cincinnati 90 - Tulane 55	0.995	Cincinnati 92 - Tulane 56	-1
DePaul 74 - Saint Johns 75	0.505	DePaul 73 - Saint Johns 79	5
Evansville 70 - Northern Iowa 62	0.703	Evansville 70 - Northern Iowa 58	-4
Illinois 73 - Ohio State 69	0.58	Illinois 75 - Ohio State 70	-1
Iowa 71 - Michigan 76	0.622	Iowa 86 - Michigan 83	-8
Loyola Ill 69 - Illinois State 70	0.57	Loyola Ill 59 - Illinois State 81	21
Maryland 77 - Nebraska 65	0.832	Maryland 65 - Nebraska 67	14
Middle Tennessee 79 - Alabama Birmingham 62	0.874	Middle Tennessee 60 - Alabama Birmingham 49	6
Purdue 77 - Minnesota 68	0.756	Purdue 82 - Minnesota 91	18
Rutgers 71 - Penn State 69	0.577	Rutgers 47 - Penn State 60	15
San Diego State 74 - New Mexico 65	0.738	San Diego State 62 - New Mexico 68	15
Seton Hall 79 - Marquette 78	0.5	Seton Hall 69 - Marquette 66	-2
Southern Illinois 79 - Drake 69	0.818	Southern Illinois 83 - Drake 69	-4
Southern Miss 60 - Louisiana Tech 81	0.973	Southern Miss 55 - Louisiana Tech 79	3
Stanford 68 - Arizona 75	0.747	Stanford 52 - Arizona 91	32
Texas San Antonio 71 - Texas El Paso 64	0.705	Texas San Antonio 67 - Texas El Paso 55	-5
Utah 73 - Colorado 74	0.558	Utah 76 - Colorado 60	-17
Washington 83 - Washington State 69	0.848	Washington 74 - Washington State 79	19
Wichita State 84 - Bradley 61	0.949	Wichita State 100 - Bradley 66	-11

Number of DI Games: 249
Number Correct: 168 = 67.5%
Expected Number Correct: 179.332 = 72.6%
Average Error: 9.24
Average Signed Error: 1.29

WEEK 9 -- 1-2 to 1-8

GAMES OF 1-2

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 62 - Jackson State 77	0.886	Alabama AM 51 - Jackson State 63	-3
Alabama State 71 - Grambling State 67	0.608	Alabama State 73 - Grambling State 69	0
Albany 78 - Cornell 64	0.911	Albany 69 - Cornell 59	4
Alcorn State 68 - Texas Southern 80	0.917	Alcorn State 65 - Texas Southern 67	-10
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - UL Lafayette 75	0.631	Arkansas Little Rock 52 - UL Lafayette 69	13
Arkansas Pine Bluff 66 - Mississippi Valley State 67	0.514	Arkansas Pine Bluff 105 - Mississippi Valley State 91	-15
Arkansas State 81 - UL Monroe 61	0.953	Arkansas State 76 - UL Monroe 45	-11
Boston 71 - Lehigh 78	0.686	Boston 75 - Lehigh 61	-21
Bucknell 77 - Army 67	0.852	Bucknell 84 - Army 76	2
Canisius 81 - Siena 69	0.867	Canisius 82 - Siena 79	9
Central Arkansas 75 - Lamar 74	0.523	Central Arkansas 75 - Lamar 78	4
Charlotte 79 - Rice 78	0.527	Charlotte 70 - Rice 89	20
Colgate 69 - American 67	0.568	Colgate 64 - American 67	5
Delaware 58 - College of Charleston 69	0.779	Delaware 56 - College of Charleston 65	-2
Drexel 70 - Northeastern 78	0.721	Drexel 70 - Northeastern 75	-3
Fairfield 74 - Iona 73	0.511	Fairfield 93 - Iona 87	-5
Florida Atlantic 75 - Marshall 83	0.705	Florida Atlantic 72 - Marshall 89	9
Florida International 67 - Western Kentucky 70	0.553	Florida International 66 - Western Kentucky 69	0
Furman 73 - Mercer 66	0.676	Furman 71 - Mercer 69	5
Hofstra 80 - William and Mary 72	0.685	Hofstra 93 - William and Mary 95	10
Holy Cross 68 - Navy 60	0.709	Holy Cross 51 - Navy 50	7
James Madison 63 - Towson 74	0.853	James Madison 64 - Towson 44	-31
Loyola MD 78 - Lafayette 59	0.956	Loyola MD 69 - Lafayette 78	28
Maine 72 - Columbia 74	0.563	Maine 73 - Columbia 98	23
Marist 70 - Manhattan 74	0.615	Marist 90 - Manhattan 88	-6
Maryland Eastern Shore 83 - Unranked 61		Maryland Eastern Shore 90 - Unranked 65
Mcneese State 72 - Stephen F Austin 71	0.522	Mcneese State 69 - Stephen F Austin 54	-14
New Hampshire 87 - Unranked 55		New Hampshire 95 - Unranked 50
Niagara 76 - Quinnipiac 71	0.616	Niagara 78 - Quinnipiac 81	8
Nicholls State 75 - Texas AM CC 74	0.524	Nicholls State 68 - Texas AM CC 64	-3
North Florida 84 - Unranked 64		North Florida 102 - Unranked 67
Old Dominion 73 - North Texas 55	0.91	Old Dominion 55 - North Texas 48	11
Saint Peters 68 - Monmouth 75	0.694	Saint Peters 71 - Monmouth 61	-17
South Alabama 71 - Troy 70	0.525	South Alabama 76 - Troy 75	0
Southeast Louisiana 79 - Incarnate Word 69	0.73	Southeast Louisiana 74 - Incarnate Word 63	-1
Southern 78 - Prairie View 69	0.796	Southern 59 - Prairie View 57	7
Stetson 85 - Unranked 64		Stetson 95 - Unranked 72
Tennessee State 81 - Kennesaw St 60	0.963	Tennessee State 73 - Kennesaw St 76	24
Texas Arlington 85 - Appalachian State 62	0.967	Texas Arlington 84 - Appalachian State 69	8
Texas State 72 - Coastal Carolina 69	0.595	Texas State 53 - Coastal Carolina 60	10
UMKC 75 - South Carolina Upstate 71	0.611	UMKC 75 - South Carolina Upstate 84	13
UNC Greensboro 67 - Chattanooga 73	0.709	UNC Greensboro 73 - Chattanooga 68	-11
UNC Wilmington 84 - Elon 66	0.938	UNC Wilmington 79 - Elon 63	2
Utah Valley 92 - Unranked 62		Utah Valley 102 - Unranked 63
Vermont 73 - Harvard 68	0.673	Vermont 82 - Harvard 71	-6
Western Carolina 61 - Samford 72	0.8	Western Carolina 65 - Samford 70	-6
Wofford 89 - The Citadel 75	0.87	Wofford 103 - The Citadel 104	15
Yale 82 - Hartford 63	0.931	Yale 88 - Hartford 72	3

GAMES OF 1-3

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 81 - Bowling Green 63	0.899	Akron 89 - Bowling Green 84	13
Central Florida 73 - East Carolina 57	0.875	Central Florida 48 - East Carolina 45	13
Clemson 78 - North Carolina 75	0.553	Clemson 86 - North Carolina 89	6
Dartmouth 64 - Cal State Bakersfield 72	0.76	Dartmouth 60 - Cal State Bakersfield 64	-4
Eastern Michigan 82 - Central Michigan 79	0.57	Eastern Michigan 85 - Central Michigan 63	-19
Florida 82 - Mississippi 67	0.931	Florida 70 - Mississippi 63	8
Indiana 72 - Wisconsin 73	0.538	Indiana 68 - Wisconsin 75	6
Jacksonville 88 - Unranked 59		Jacksonville 124 - Unranked 85
Kansas 80 - Kansas State 67	0.956	Kansas 90 - Kansas State 88	11
Kent State 76 - Ball State 68	0.705	Kent State 100 - Ball State 90	-2
Kentucky 86 - Texas AM 67	0.969	Kentucky 100 - Texas AM 58	-23
Liberty 68 - UNC Asheville 74	0.715	Liberty 57 - UNC Asheville 70	7
Miami OH 69 - Northern Illinois 70	0.527	Miami OH 69 - Northern Illinois 67	-3
Mississippi State 68 - Alabama 66	0.564	Mississippi State 58 - Alabama 68	12
Ohio 78 - Western Michigan 66	0.814	Ohio 89 - Western Michigan 58	-19
Rhode Island 77 - Saint Josephs 67	0.844	Rhode Island 88 - Saint Josephs 58	-20
Saint Bonaventure 72 - Dayton 74	0.595	Saint Bonaventure 74 - Dayton 90	14
Tennessee 76 - Arkansas 75	0.539	Tennessee 78 - Arkansas 82	5
Texas Christian 83 - Oklahoma 67	0.894	Texas Christian 60 - Oklahoma 57	13
Texas Tech 69 - West Virginia 77	0.747	Texas Tech 77 - West Virginia 76	-9
Toledo 79 - Buffalo 72	0.762	Toledo 86 - Buffalo 54	-25
Wake Forest 85 - Boston College 69	0.871	Wake Forest 79 - Boston College 66	3

GAMES OF 1-4

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 69 - Grambling State 74	0.647	Alabama AM 67 - Grambling State 69	-3
Alabama State 64 - Jackson State 70	0.703	Alabama State 60 - Jackson State 63	-3
Alcorn State 72 - Prairie View 70	0.565	Alcorn State 66 - Prairie View 55	-9
Baylor 77 - Iowa State 63	0.813	Baylor 65 - Iowa State 63	12
Butler 72 - Villanova 74	0.564	Butler 66 - Villanova 58	-10
Cal State Northridge 78 - UC Riverside 68	0.768	Cal State Northridge 82 - UC Riverside 76	4
Campbell 76 - Charleston Southern 66	0.855	Campbell 92 - Charleston Southern 82	0
Canisius 84 - Quinnipiac 68	0.909	Canisius 83 - Quinnipiac 77	10
Coppin State 67 - South Carolina State 74	0.69	Coppin State 75 - South Carolina State 59	-23
Denver 72 - South Dakota 67	0.705	Denver 69 - South Dakota 75	11
Duke 82 - Georgia Tech 61	0.904	Duke 110 - Georgia Tech 57	-32
Duquesne 66 - Virginia Commonwealth 76	0.808	Duquesne 87 - Virginia Commonwealth 94	-3
Evansville 75 - Bradley 61	0.842	Evansville 63 - Bradley 74	25
Fresno State 74 - Wyoming 75	0.523	Fresno State 85 - Wyoming 70	-16
George Mason 76 - Massachusetts 72	0.622	George Mason 86 - Massachusetts 81	-1
Georgia 71 - South Carolina 67	0.626	Georgia 61 - South Carolina 67	10
Hampton 69 - North Carolina AT 63	0.68	Hampton 68 - North Carolina AT 53	-9
High Point 69 - Winthrop 77	0.741	High Point 74 - Winthrop 80	-2
Houston 78 - Tulsa 63	0.838	Houston 64 - Tulsa 61	12
Howard 79 - Florida AM 66	0.87	Howard 66 - Florida AM 78	25
Illinois State 75 - Missouri State 64	0.846	Illinois State 74 - Missouri State 71	8
La Salle 84 - Saint Louis 64	0.974	La Salle 75 - Saint Louis 54	-1
Longwood 71 - Presbyterian 62	0.761	Longwood 79 - Presbyterian 76	6
Loyola Ill 73 - Northern Iowa 65	0.699	Loyola Ill 77 - Northern Iowa 66	-3
Michigan 76 - Penn State 68	0.712	Michigan 72 - Penn State 69	5
Michigan State 74 - Rutgers 61	0.874	Michigan State 93 - Rutgers 65	-15
Missouri 73 - Louisiana State 76	0.574	Missouri 77 - Louisiana State 88	8
Morgan State 70 - Norfolk State 69	0.525	Morgan State 58 - Norfolk State 56	-1
NC State 75 - Virginia Tech 76	0.536	NC State 104 - Virginia Tech 78	-27
Nevada 75 - San Diego State 66	0.767	Nevada 72 - San Diego State 69	6
Nevada Las Vegas 71 - Boise State 74	0.575	Nevada Las Vegas 59 - Boise State 77	15
Niagara 71 - Siena 72	0.516	Niagara 71 - Siena 66	-6
NJ Tech 77 - Brown 71	0.688	NJ Tech 75 - Brown 73	4
Notre Dame 71 - Louisville 74	0.605	Notre Dame 77 - Louisville 70	-10
Omaha 77 - IPFW 80	0.61	Omaha 78 - IPFW 80	-1
Pittsburgh 65 - Virginia 73	0.788	Pittsburgh 88 - Virginia 76	-20
Providence 73 - Georgetown 71	0.554	Providence 76 - Georgetown 70	-4
Radford 74 - Gardner Webb 68	0.638	Radford 59 - Gardner Webb 70	17
Richmond 75 - Fordham 64	0.801	Richmond 80 - Fordham 72	3
Saint Johns 74 - Creighton 84	0.717	Saint Johns 72 - Creighton 85	3
San Jose State 69 - Colorado State 71	0.584	San Jose State 71 - Colorado State 76	3
Savannah State 83 - Bethune Cookman 79	0.625	Savannah State 104 - Bethune Cookman 91	-9
Southern 74 - Texas Southern 78	0.664	Southern 74 - Texas Southern 82	4
Southern Illinois 74 - Indiana State 71	0.6	Southern Illinois 80 - Indiana State 74	-3
Southern Methodist 75 - Temple 63	0.776	Southern Methodist 79 - Temple 65	-2
Syracuse 69 - Miami 75	0.628	Syracuse 70 - Miami 55	-21
Texas 74 - Oklahoma State 80	0.619	Texas 82 - Oklahoma State 79	-9
UC Davis 74 - UC Santa Barbara 65	0.789	UC Davis 73 - UC Santa Barbara 47	-17
UC Irvine 74 - Long Beach State 69	0.674	UC Irvine 82 - Long Beach State 67	-10
Utah State 72 - New Mexico 73	0.56	Utah State 79 - New Mexico 75	-5
Vanderbilt 79 - Auburn 74	0.633	Vanderbilt 80 - Auburn 61	-14
Washington 71 - Oregon 82	0.816	Washington 61 - Oregon 83	11
Washington State 73 - Oregon State 62	0.758	Washington State 75 - Oregon State 62	-2
Western Illinois 71 - South Dakota State 73	0.549	Western Illinois 82 - South Dakota State 74	-10
Wichita State 92 - Drake 62	0.989	Wichita State 90 - Drake 65	5

GAMES OF 1-5

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 73 - Central Arkansas 71	0.533	Abilene Christian 76 - Central Arkansas 81	7
American 64 - Bucknell 76	0.867	American 60 - Bucknell 69	-3
Arizona 82 - Utah 66	0.924	Arizona 66 - Utah 56	6
Arizona State 75 - Colorado 76	0.517	Arizona State 78 - Colorado 77	-2
Belmont 79 - Tennessee Martin 69	0.799	Belmont 83 - Tennessee Martin 67	-6
Bryant 69 - Mt St Marys 74	0.663	Bryant 72 - Mt St Marys 71	-6
Cal State Fullerton 70 - Hawaii 68	0.563	Cal State Fullerton 67 - Hawaii 64	-1
Central Connecticut State 70 - Sacred Heart 73	0.592	Central Connecticut State 62 - Sacred Heart 64	-1
Chattanooga 80 - Wofford 64	0.903	Chattanooga 77 - Wofford 66	5
Chicago State 72 - Texas Pan American 73	0.501	Chicago State 64 - Texas Pan American 83	18
Colgate 63 - Holy Cross 69	0.691	Colgate 61 - Holy Cross 67	0
College of Charleston 72 - Towson 63	0.795	College of Charleston 62 - Towson 57	4
Drexel 67 - UNC Wilmington 84	0.91	Drexel 72 - UNC Wilmington 90	1
Eastern Kentucky 77 - SIU Edwardsville 69	0.665	Eastern Kentucky 78 - SIU Edwardsville 61	-9
Eastern Washington 81 - Montana State 71	0.838	Eastern Washington 82 - Montana State 64	-8
George Washington 73 - Davidson 74	0.525	George Washington 73 - Davidson 69	-5
Hofstra 79 - James Madison 62	0.884	Hofstra 54 - James Madison 62	25
Houston Baptist 73 - Southeast Louisiana 69	0.587	Houston Baptist 81 - Southeast Louisiana 74	-3
Idaho 68 - Montana 73	0.672	Idaho 57 - Montana 70	8
Incarnate Word 78 - Northwestern State 73	0.649	Incarnate Word 84 - Northwestern State 80	1
Jacksonville State 77 - Murray State 70	0.686	Jacksonville State 63 - Murray State 76	20
Lafayette 65 - Army 78	0.887	Lafayette 79 - Army 74	-18
Lamar 71 - New Orleans 72	0.528	Lamar 62 - New Orleans 66	3
Lehigh 78 - Loyola MD 64	0.864	Lehigh 83 - Loyola MD 84	15
Lipscomb 92 - Unranked 62		Lipscomb 126 - Unranked 43
Louisiana Tech 84 - Texas El Paso 61	0.982	Louisiana Tech 64 - Texas El Paso 44	3
Maine 63 - Vermont 78	0.895	Maine 77 - Vermont 90	-2
Manhattan 74 - Fairfield 72	0.54	Manhattan 79 - Fairfield 97	20
Marshall 75 - Old Dominion 72	0.581	Marshall 90 - Old Dominion 86	-1
Mcneese State 73 - Sam Houston State 74	0.509	Mcneese State 67 - Sam Houston State 74	6
Memphis 77 - Connecticut 64	0.885	Memphis 70 - Connecticut 61	4
Mercer 81 - Virginia Military Institute 65	0.889	Mercer 68 - Virginia Military Institute 50	-2
Morehead State 72 - Eastern Illinois 73	0.51	Morehead State 85 - Eastern Illinois 75	-11
Navy 68 - Boston 69	0.52	Navy 53 - Boston 71	17
Nebraska 77 - Iowa 71	0.651	Nebraska 93 - Iowa 90	3
New Hampshire 73 - Stony Brook 66	0.669	New Hampshire 56 - Stony Brook 59	10
North Dakota 80 - Northern Arizona 66	0.811	North Dakota 68 - Northern Arizona 63	9
North Dakota State 75 - IUPUI 68	0.704	North Dakota State 93 - IUPUI 89	3
North Texas 68 - Alabama Birmingham 72	0.596	North Texas 52 - Alabama Birmingham 54	-2
Northeastern 76 - Delaware 60	0.855	Northeastern 90 - Delaware 54	-20
Northern Colorado 83 - Southern Utah 65	0.93	Northern Colorado 76 - Southern Utah 78	20
Northern Kentucky 82 - Youngstown State 64	0.916	Northern Kentucky 83 - Youngstown State 70	5
Northwestern 72 - Minnesota 73	0.52	Northwestern 66 - Minnesota 70	3
Ohio State 71 - Purdue 76	0.629	Ohio State 75 - Purdue 76	-4
Pepperdine 67 - Loyola Marymount 74	0.774	Pepperdine 71 - Loyola Marymount 70	-8
Rice 69 - Middle Tennessee 75	0.688	Rice 77 - Middle Tennessee 80	-3
Robert Morris 72 - LIU Brooklyn 66	0.69	Robert Morris 54 - LIU Brooklyn 65	17
Saint Francis Penn 75 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 66	0.788	Saint Francis Penn 81 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 56	-16
Saint Marys 79 - Brigham Young 69	0.814	Saint Marys 81 - Brigham Young 68	-3
Samford 72 - Furman 64	0.734	Samford 73 - Furman 83	18
San Diego 71 - Pacific 66	0.717	San Diego 53 - Pacific 56	8
San Francisco 64 - Gonzaga 81	0.924	San Francisco 80 - Gonzaga 95	-2
Santa Clara 71 - Portland 69	0.559	Santa Clara 70 - Portland 42	-26
Southern California 81 - Stanford 68	0.831	Southern California 72 - Stanford 56	-3
Southern Miss 61 - Texas San Antonio 69	0.748	Southern Miss 77 - Texas San Antonio 59	-26
Tennessee State 76 - SE Missouri State 61	0.835	Tennessee State 65 - SE Missouri State 62	12
Tennessee Tech 77 - Austin Peay 72	0.635	Tennessee Tech 76 - Austin Peay 67	-4
The Citadel 74 - East Tennessee State 90	0.9	The Citadel 71 - East Tennessee State 115	28
UCLA 83 - California 70	0.884	UCLA 81 - California 71	3
UMass Lowell 70 - Albany 76	0.73	UMass Lowell 85 - Albany 79	-12
UMBC 78 - Binghamton 67	0.87	UMBC 85 - Binghamton 71	-3
UMKC 68 - New Mexico State 77	0.789	UMKC 64 - New Mexico State 77	4
Wagner 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70	0.663	Wagner 69 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70	6
Western Kentucky 73 - Charlotte 74	0.511	Western Kentucky 82 - Charlotte 80	-3
William and Mary 76 - Elon 74	0.558	William and Mary 88 - Elon 85	-1
Wright State 74 - Cleveland State 64	0.798	Wright State 55 - Cleveland State 51	6

GAMES OF 1-6

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 82 - Western Michigan 65	0.871	Akron 66 - Western Michigan 59	10
Dayton 74 - Rhode Island 67	0.787	Dayton 67 - Rhode Island 64	4
Green Bay 77 - Milwaukee 63	0.842	Green Bay 80 - Milwaukee 74	8
Illinois Chicago 81 - Detroit 70	0.894	Illinois Chicago 78 - Detroit 64	-3
Marist 70 - Rider 74	0.662	Marist 62 - Rider 73	7
Monmouth 79 - Iona 72	0.733	Monmouth 92 - Iona 74	-11
Ohio 73 - Kent State 68	0.647	Ohio 85 - Kent State 67	-13
Valparaiso 74 - Oakland 73	0.536	Valparaiso 66 - Oakland 78	13

GAMES OF 1-7

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 67 - Stephen F Austin 71	0.625	Abilene Christian 69 - Stephen F Austin 60	-13
Alabama 71 - Vanderbilt 68	0.59	Alabama 59 - Vanderbilt 56	0
Appalachian State 70 - Arkansas Little Rock 71	0.541	Appalachian State 68 - Arkansas Little Rock 76	7
Arizona 78 - Colorado 63	0.895	Arizona 82 - Colorado 73	6
Arizona State 78 - Utah 79	0.51	Arizona State 82 - Utah 88	5
Arkansas Pine Bluff 64 - Alabama State 63	0.55	Arkansas Pine Bluff 71 - Alabama State 63	-7
Auburn 79 - Mississippi 76	0.583	Auburn 85 - Mississippi 88	6
Ball State 75 - Bowling Green 68	0.74	Ball State 71 - Bowling Green 76	12
Baylor 86 - Oklahoma State 71	0.84	Baylor 61 - Oklahoma State 57	11
Belmont 80 - SE Missouri State 64	0.862	Belmont 87 - SE Missouri State 75	4
Bethune Cookman 72 - Morgan State 70	0.56	Bethune Cookman 63 - Morgan State 69	8
Boise State 73 - San Diego State 66	0.692	Boise State 78 - San Diego State 66	-5
Bradley 69 - Loyola Ill 72	0.576	Bradley 62 - Loyola Ill 78	13
Brigham Young 83 - Pacific 64	0.946	Brigham Young 91 - Pacific 62	-10
Cal State Bakersfield 76 - Seattle 63	0.895	Cal State Bakersfield 78 - Seattle 71	6
Cal State Fullerton 77 - Cal State Northridge 76	0.536	Cal State Fullerton 65 - Cal State Northridge 70	6
Central Connecticut State 63 - Mt St Marys 75	0.805	Central Connecticut State 68 - Mt St Marys 77	-3
Chattanooga 76 - Furman 61	0.845	Chattanooga 80 - Furman 64	-1
Chicago State 63 - New Mexico State 79	0.857	Chicago State 62 - New Mexico State 78	0
Coastal Carolina 67 - Arkansas State 79	0.802	Coastal Carolina 80 - Arkansas State 65	-27
College of Charleston 75 - Hofstra 64	0.757	College of Charleston 77 - Hofstra 71	5
Colorado State 76 - Air Force 67	0.808	Colorado State 85 - Air Force 58	-18
Columbia 78 - Howard 68	0.821	Columbia 66 - Howard 48	-8
Dartmouth 64 - Harvard 77	0.887	Dartmouth 58 - Harvard 74	3
Delaware 61 - UNC Wilmington 78	0.888	Delaware 81 - UNC Wilmington 91	-7
Duke 86 - Boston College 62	0.937	Duke 93 - Boston College 82	13
Eastern Kentucky 71 - Eastern Illinois 74	0.566	Eastern Kentucky 60 - Eastern Illinois 74	11
Eastern Michigan 78 - Buffalo 74	0.587	Eastern Michigan 68 - Buffalo 77	13
Eastern Washington 75 - Montana 73	0.594	Eastern Washington 59 - Montana 65	8
Elon 73 - Towson 72	0.518	Elon 72 - Towson 61	-10
Fairleigh Dickinson 81 - Bryant 72	0.722	Fairleigh Dickinson 87 - Bryant 84	6
Florida 79 - Tennessee 66	0.889	Florida 83 - Tennessee 70	0
Florida AM 73 - Coppin State 68	0.625	Florida AM 54 - Coppin State 53	4
Florida Atlantic 72 - Florida International 66	0.679	Florida Atlantic 73 - Florida International 64	-3
Florida State 81 - Virginia Tech 72	0.767	Florida State 93 - Virginia Tech 78	-6
Fordham 66 - Saint Josephs 73	0.706	Fordham 55 - Saint Josephs 70	8
Gardner Webb 82 - Charleston Southern 66	0.95	Gardner Webb 79 - Charleston Southern 75	12
Georgetown 72 - Butler 77	0.642	Georgetown 76 - Butler 85	4
Georgia 79 - Missouri 61	0.946	Georgia 71 - Missouri 66	13
Georgia Southern 78 - Troy 68	0.775	Georgia Southern 86 - Troy 82	6
Georgia State 74 - South Alabama 64	0.729	Georgia State 78 - South Alabama 77	9
Georgia Tech 62 - Louisville 77	0.86	Georgia Tech 50 - Louisville 65	0
Grambling State 71 - Southern 77	0.689	Grambling State 79 - Southern 87	2
Grand Canyon 79 - Utah Valley 72	0.673	Grand Canyon 82 - Utah Valley 72	-3
Houston 70 - Cincinnati 72	0.55	Houston 58 - Cincinnati 67	7
Houston Baptist 78 - Mcneese State 68	0.772	Houston Baptist 60 - Mcneese State 49	-1
Idaho 74 - Montana State 71	0.628	Idaho 83 - Montana State 81	1
Incarnate Word 73 - New Orleans 75	0.541	Incarnate Word 72 - New Orleans 87	13
Indiana 77 - Illinois 71	0.673	Indiana 96 - Illinois 80	-10
Indiana State 66 - Illinois State 75	0.738	Indiana State 58 - Illinois State 77	10
Iowa State 76 - Texas 62	0.786	Iowa State 79 - Texas 70	5
IPFW 79 - Denver 71	0.729	IPFW 87 - Denver 83	4
Jacksonville 79 - North Florida 66	0.842	Jacksonville 64 - North Florida 80	29
Jacksonville State 82 - Austin Peay 67	0.873	Jacksonville State 71 - Austin Peay 68	12
Kansas 80 - Texas Tech 66	0.933	Kansas 85 - Texas Tech 68	-3
Kansas State 79 - Oklahoma 66	0.883	Kansas State 75 - Oklahoma 64	2
Kentucky 87 - Arkansas 72	0.926	Kentucky 97 - Arkansas 71	-11
La Salle 81 - Duquesne 70	0.86	La Salle 88 - Duquesne 81	4
Lamar 71 - Southeast Louisiana 72	0.527	Lamar 74 - Southeast Louisiana 54	-21
Liberty 71 - Campbell 65	0.721	Liberty 61 - Campbell 54	-1
Lipscomb 83 - Kennesaw St 71	0.878	Lipscomb 82 - Kennesaw St 79	9
Long Beach State 77 - UC Riverside 65	0.802	Long Beach State 70 - UC Riverside 64	6
Louisiana State 77 - Mississippi State 73	0.593	Louisiana State 78 - Mississippi State 95	21
Louisiana Tech 78 - Texas San Antonio 61	0.928	Louisiana Tech 68 - Texas San Antonio 69	18
Loyola Marymount 73 - Santa Clara 67	0.685	Loyola Marymount 66 - Santa Clara 56	-4
Marshall 87 - Charlotte 79	0.703	Marshall 110 - Charlotte 93	-9
Mercer 69 - East Tennessee State 76	0.711	Mercer 58 - East Tennessee State 67	2
Michigan 73 - Maryland 69	0.602	Michigan 70 - Maryland 77	11
Mississippi Valley State 78 - Alabama AM 63	0.874	Mississippi Valley State 76 - Alabama AM 79	18
Missouri State 77 - Southern Illinois 67	0.859	Missouri State 67 - Southern Illinois 75	18
Morehead State 78 - SIU Edwardsville 69	0.78	Morehead State 73 - SIU Edwardsville 65	1
New Mexico 73 - Nevada 75	0.574	New Mexico 104 - Nevada 105	-1
North Carolina AT 68 - Delaware State 64	0.594	North Carolina AT 53 - Delaware State 55	6
North Dakota 82 - Southern Utah 70	0.773	North Dakota 95 - Southern Utah 65	-18
North Texas 59 - Middle Tennessee 76	0.876	North Texas 68 - Middle Tennessee 79	-6
Northeastern 79 - James Madison 58	0.958	Northeastern 64 - James Madison 54	11
Northern Colorado 81 - Northern Arizona 60	0.938	Northern Colorado 83 - Northern Arizona 79	17
Northern Illinois 76 - Central Michigan 75	0.543	Northern Illinois 87 - Central Michigan 83	-3
Northern Kentucky 75 - Cleveland State 61	0.853	Northern Kentucky 83 - Cleveland State 75	6
Notre Dame 75 - Clemson 73	0.541	Notre Dame 75 - Clemson 70	-3
Penn State 71 - Michigan State 72	0.506	Penn State 72 - Michigan State 63	-10
Pepperdine 69 - San Diego 71	0.611	Pepperdine 68 - San Diego 76	6
Portland State 84 - Sacramento State 63	0.946	Portland State 83 - Sacramento State 76	14
Prairie View 71 - Texas Southern 80	0.796	Prairie View 82 - Texas Southern 87	-4
Presbyterian 60 - Radford 74	0.827	Presbyterian 63 - Radford 76	-1
Princeton 72 - Pennsylvania 68	0.636	Princeton 61 - Pennsylvania 52	-5
Providence 71 - Creighton 78	0.709	Providence 64 - Creighton 78	7
Quinnipiac 73 - Manhattan 74	0.534	Quinnipiac 81 - Manhattan 72	-10
Rice 78 - Alabama Birmingham 70	0.753	Rice 81 - Alabama Birmingham 88	15
Robert Morris 75 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 61	0.96	Robert Morris 62 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 58	10
Saint Bonaventure 79 - George Mason 72	0.69	Saint Bonaventure 82 - George Mason 72	-3
Saint Francis Penn 72 - LIU Brooklyn 71	0.522	Saint Francis Penn 70 - LIU Brooklyn 83	14
Sam Houston State 77 - Nicholls State 73	0.609	Sam Houston State 74 - Nicholls State 61	-9
San Francisco 65 - Saint Marys 75	0.789	San Francisco 52 - Saint Marys 63	1
San Jose State 70 - Fresno State 71	0.507	San Jose State 69 - Fresno State 62	-8
Seton Hall 81 - DePaul 65	0.892	Seton Hall 87 - DePaul 56	-15
Siena 71 - Saint Peters 65	0.635	Siena 56 - Saint Peters 54	4
South Carolina 72 - Texas AM 65	0.712	South Carolina 79 - Texas AM 68	-4
South Carolina Upstate 74 - NJ Tech 71	0.587	South Carolina Upstate 75 - NJ Tech 65	-7
South Dakota 75 - IUPUI 70	0.672	South Dakota 85 - IUPUI 74	-6
South Dakota State 76 - Omaha 75	0.546	South Dakota State 93 - Omaha 101	9
Southern Methodist 81 - South Florida 54	0.962	Southern Methodist 84 - South Florida 65	8
Southern Miss 66 - Texas El Paso 69	0.596	Southern Miss 73 - Texas El Paso 65	-11
Stetson 66 - Florida Gulf Coast 82	0.915	Stetson 88 - Florida Gulf Coast 89	-15
Syracuse 73 - Pittsburgh 76	0.554	Syracuse 77 - Pittsburgh 66	-14
Temple 75 - East Carolina 61	0.85	Temple 81 - East Carolina 62	-5
Tennessee State 75 - Tennessee Martin 66	0.758	Tennessee State 76 - Tennessee Martin 65	-2
Tennessee Tech 71 - Murray State 75	0.607	Tennessee Tech 71 - Murray State 67	-8
Texas AM CC 78 - Northwestern State 66	0.836	Texas AM CC 99 - Northwestern State 82	-5
Texas State 63 - Texas Arlington 77	0.877	Texas State 81 - Texas Arlington 73	-22
The Citadel 86 - Virginia Military Institute 79	0.699	The Citadel 79 - Virginia Military Institute 74	2
Toledo 81 - Miami OH 67	0.898	Toledo 91 - Miami OH 76	-1
UC Davis 74 - Cal Poly 65	0.788	UC Davis 68 - Cal Poly 64	5
UC Irvine 71 - Hawaii 63	0.794	UC Irvine 84 - Hawaii 56	-20
UL Lafayette 83 - UL Monroe 65	0.918	UL Lafayette 69 - UL Monroe 60	9
UMKC 78 - Texas Pan American 72	0.692	UMKC 83 - Texas Pan American 79	2
UNC Asheville 80 - High Point 65	0.878	UNC Asheville 88 - High Point 58	-15
UNC Greensboro 73 - Western Carolina 59	0.879	UNC Greensboro 76 - Western Carolina 57	-5
Utah State 73 - Nevada Las Vegas 71	0.555	Utah State 79 - Nevada Las Vegas 63	-14
Villanova 84 - Marquette 68	0.901	Villanova 93 - Marquette 81	4
Virginia Commonwealth 78 - Massachusetts 67	0.862	Virginia Commonwealth 81 - Massachusetts 64	-6
Wagner 75 - Sacred Heart 65	0.788	Wagner 75 - Sacred Heart 64	-1
Washington 80 - Oregon State 65	0.867	Washington 87 - Oregon State 61	-11
Washington State 63 - Oregon 80	0.884	Washington State 66 - Oregon 85	2
West Virginia 83 - Texas Christian 70	0.824	West Virginia 82 - Texas Christian 70	1
Western Illinois 69 - Oral Roberts 74	0.62	Western Illinois 86 - Oral Roberts 71	-20
Western Kentucky 62 - Old Dominion 67	0.656	Western Kentucky 67 - Old Dominion 79	7
Winthrop 84 - Longwood 61	0.976	Winthrop 83 - Longwood 65	5
Wright State 82 - Youngstown State 67	0.881	Wright State 75 - Youngstown State 80	20
Xavier 85 - Saint Johns 67	0.849	Xavier 97 - Saint Johns 82	3
Yale 93 - Unranked 54		Yale 102 - Unranked 46

GAMES OF 1-8

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Army 72 - Loyola MD 66	0.727	Army 66 - Loyola MD 57	-3
Binghamton 76 - UMass Lowell 70	0.705	Binghamton 75 - UMass Lowell 79	10
Connecticut 62 - Central Florida 69	0.704	Connecticut 64 - Central Florida 49	-22
Cornell 86 - Unranked 62		Cornell 100 - Unranked 72
Drake 67 - Evansville 78	0.815	Drake 88 - Evansville 76	-23
George Washington 76 - Richmond 70	0.689	George Washington 70 - Richmond 77	13
Holy Cross 66 - Bucknell 70	0.643	Holy Cross 49 - Bucknell 68	15
Illinois Chicago 68 - Oakland 81	0.91	Illinois Chicago 57 - Oakland 58	-12
Iona 77 - Canisius 74	0.597	Iona 98 - Canisius 75	-20
Iowa 75 - Rutgers 68	0.703	Iowa 68 - Rutgers 62	1
Lafayette 67 - Boston 77	0.817	Lafayette 75 - Boston 91	6
Lehigh 83 - American 61	0.954	Lehigh 79 - American 73	16
Minnesota 78 - Ohio State 66	0.791	Minnesota 78 - Ohio State 68	2
Monmouth 86 - Marist 64	0.974	Monmouth 71 - Marist 64	15
Navy 71 - Colgate 62	0.766	Navy 67 - Colgate 55	-3
Nebraska 70 - Northwestern 72	0.548	Nebraska 66 - Northwestern 74	6
North Carolina 85 - NC State 71	0.788	North Carolina 107 - NC State 56	-37
Northern Iowa 65 - Wichita State 79	0.821	Northern Iowa 66 - Wichita State 80	0
Purdue 74 - Wisconsin 69	0.64	Purdue 66 - Wisconsin 55	-6
Rider 77 - Niagara 67	0.767	Rider 89 - Niagara 78	-1
Saint Louis 62 - Davidson 77	0.897	Saint Louis 66 - Davidson 77	-4
Samford 77 - Wofford 67	0.807	Samford 91 - Wofford 89	8
Southern California 74 - California 69	0.699	Southern California 73 - California 74	6
Stony Brook 69 - Albany 70	0.537	Stony Brook 72 - Albany 70	-3
Tulane 67 - Memphis 83	0.905	Tulane 59 - Memphis 80	5
UCLA 89 - Stanford 69	0.927	UCLA 89 - Stanford 75	6
UMBC 82 - Maine 66	0.918	UMBC 75 - Maine 64	5
Valparaiso 87 - Detroit 61	0.993	Valparaiso 81 - Detroit 74	19
Vermont 82 - Hartford 60	0.957	Vermont 85 - Hartford 54	-9
Virginia 78 - Wake Forest 63	0.908	Virginia 79 - Wake Forest 62	-2

Number of DI Games: 351
Number Correct: 259 = 73.7%
Expected Number Correct: 258.337 = 73.6%
Average Error: 8.76
Average Signed Error: 0.52

WEEK 10 -- 1-9 to 1-15

GAMES OF 1-9

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Appalachian State 67 - Arkansas State 78	0.799	Appalachian State 70 - Arkansas State 57	-24
Arkansas Pine Bluff 72 - Alabama AM 62	0.787	Arkansas Pine Bluff 81 - Alabama AM 65	-6
Bethune Cookman 71 - Coppin State 68	0.606	Bethune Cookman 73 - Coppin State 76	6
Coastal Carolina 73 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	0.635	Coastal Carolina 66 - Arkansas Little Rock 63	2
Georgetown 82 - Saint Johns 74	0.665	Georgetown 83 - Saint Johns 55	-20
Georgia Southern 77 - South Alabama 65	0.827	Georgia Southern 84 - South Alabama 79	7
Georgia State 76 - Troy 68	0.725	Georgia State 77 - Troy 80	11
Grambling State 69 - Alcorn State 72	0.609	Grambling State 67 - Alcorn State 62	-8
Hampton 82 - Savannah State 76	0.663	Hampton 84 - Savannah State 80	2
IPFW 96 - Unranked 57		IPFW 115 - Unranked 60
Jackson State 72 - Southern 68	0.646	Jackson State 65 - Southern 61	0
Mississippi Valley State 72 - Alabama State 67	0.647	Mississippi Valley State 73 - Alabama State 70	2
North Carolina AT 65 - Maryland Eastern Shore 68	0.599	North Carolina AT 88 - Maryland Eastern Shore 99	8
Saint Peters 72 - Quinnipiac 64	0.699	Saint Peters 58 - Quinnipiac 54	4

GAMES OF 1-10

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 65 - Florida 72	0.8	Alabama 67 - Florida 80	6
Arkansas 80 - Mississippi State 68	0.812	Arkansas 78 - Mississippi State 84	18
Ball State 75 - Miami OH 69	0.728	Ball State 85 - Miami OH 74	-5
Bowling Green 72 - Eastern Michigan 73	0.503	Bowling Green 53 - Eastern Michigan 81	27
Buffalo 68 - Ohio 72	0.607	Buffalo 72 - Ohio 74	-2
Central Michigan 73 - Akron 80	0.695	Central Michigan 85 - Akron 89	-3
DePaul 68 - Providence 74	0.666	DePaul 64 - Providence 63	-7
Fairfield 79 - Canisius 75	0.642	Fairfield 72 - Canisius 86	18
Florida AM 69 - Morgan State 71	0.532	Florida AM 59 - Morgan State 62	1
Florida State 79 - Duke 75	0.581	Florida State 88 - Duke 72	-12
Green Bay 73 - Northern Kentucky 74	0.555	Green Bay 80 - Northern Kentucky 71	-10
Harvard 92 - Unranked 53		Harvard 70 - Unranked 45
Jacksonville State 87 - Unranked 56		Jacksonville State 81 - Unranked 69
Kent State 74 - Northern Illinois 66	0.722	Kent State 70 - Northern Illinois 74	12
Manhattan 75 - Niagara 71	0.631	Manhattan 78 - Niagara 69	-5
Maryland 77 - Indiana 74	0.6	Maryland 75 - Indiana 72	0
Missouri 72 - Auburn 77	0.643	Missouri 72 - Auburn 77	0
New Mexico 78 - Nevada Las Vegas 69	0.735	New Mexico 66 - Nevada Las Vegas 71	14
North Carolina Central 81 - Delaware State 57	0.937	North Carolina Central 68 - Delaware State 69	25
Oklahoma 70 - Kansas 85	0.927	Oklahoma 70 - Kansas 81	-4
Saint Josephs 76 - George Mason 72	0.618	Saint Josephs 67 - George Mason 75	12
San Diego State 73 - San Jose State 64	0.757	San Diego State 76 - San Jose State 61	-6
SE Missouri State 72 - Tennessee Tech 67	0.618	SE Missouri State 83 - Tennessee Tech 78	0
Texas Tech 72 - Kansas State 69	0.608	Texas Tech 66 - Kansas State 65	2
Vanderbilt 72 - Kentucky 85	0.835	Vanderbilt 81 - Kentucky 87	-7
Villanova 79 - Xavier 71	0.766	Villanova 79 - Xavier 54	-17
Virginia Tech 78 - Syracuse 71	0.623	Virginia Tech 83 - Syracuse 73	-3
West Virginia 75 - Baylor 72	0.607	West Virginia 89 - Baylor 68	-18
Western Michigan 70 - Toledo 79	0.703	Western Michigan 90 - Toledo 74	-25

GAMES OF 1-11

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 71 - Fresno State 73	0.547	Air Force 81 - Fresno State 72	-11
Albany 70 - New Hampshire 65	0.679	Albany 67 - New Hampshire 75	13
Army 78 - Colgate 62	0.95	Army 76 - Colgate 79	19
Binghamton 62 - Vermont 77	0.922	Binghamton 50 - Vermont 67	2
Boston 78 - American 62	0.917	Boston 76 - American 66	6
Boston College 74 - NC State 80	0.624	Boston College 74 - NC State 66	-14
Bradley 69 - Northern Iowa 66	0.565	Bradley 72 - Northern Iowa 61	-8
Bucknell 78 - Lehigh 70	0.753	Bucknell 71 - Lehigh 82	19
Charleston Southern 67 - Radford 75	0.735	Charleston Southern 70 - Radford 64	-14
Chattanooga 93 - The Citadel 68	0.962	Chattanooga 83 - The Citadel 73	15
Connecticut 69 - Temple 70	0.524	Connecticut 73 - Temple 59	-15
Creighton 79 - Butler 75	0.61	Creighton 75 - Butler 64	-7
Davidson 79 - Fordham 62	0.912	Davidson 54 - Fordham 60	23
Denver 75 - Western Illinois 65	0.807	Denver 84 - Western Illinois 70	-4
Drake 74 - Indiana State 75	0.508	Drake 87 - Indiana State 70	-18
Duquesne 75 - Saint Louis 62	0.894	Duquesne 73 - Saint Louis 66	6
East Carolina 62 - Houston 73	0.79	East Carolina 58 - Houston 74	5
Gardner Webb 77 - Campbell 65	0.881	Gardner Webb 60 - Campbell 76	28
Hartford 71 - UMBC 79	0.763	Hartford 68 - UMBC 84	8
High Point 68 - Liberty 67	0.521	High Point 58 - Liberty 62	5
Holy Cross 75 - Lafayette 61	0.832	Holy Cross 71 - Lafayette 54	-3
Illinois 73 - Michigan 71	0.545	Illinois 85 - Michigan 69	-14
IUPUI 79 - Omaha 75	0.621	IUPUI 71 - Omaha 79	12
Jackson State 72 - Alcorn State 64	0.815	Jackson State 50 - Alcorn State 63	21
Lamar 79 - Incarnate Word 69	0.72	Lamar 87 - Incarnate Word 72	-5
Long Beach State 78 - Cal State Northridge 74	0.627	Long Beach State 82 - Cal State Northridge 89	11
Louisville 81 - Pittsburgh 68	0.853	Louisville 85 - Pittsburgh 80	8
Loyola MD 69 - Navy 62	0.696	Loyola MD 62 - Navy 75	20
Maine 73 - UMass Lowell 76	0.581	Maine 73 - UMass Lowell 71	-5
Marquette 79 - Seton Hall 75	0.622	Marquette 89 - Seton Hall 86	1
Massachusetts 67 - Dayton 76	0.868	Massachusetts 67 - Dayton 55	-21
Michigan State 71 - Minnesota 74	0.588	Michigan State 65 - Minnesota 47	-21
Mississippi 76 - Georgia 74	0.619	Mississippi 47 - Georgia 69	24
Missouri State 73 - Evansville 68	0.665	Missouri State 55 - Evansville 51	1
Norfolk State 82 - Savannah State 76	0.696	Norfolk State 80 - Savannah State 76	2
North Carolina Central 80 - Maryland Eastern Shore 60	0.954	North Carolina Central 69 - Maryland Eastern Shore 52	3
Oklahoma State 78 - Iowa State 76	0.532	Oklahoma State 86 - Iowa State 96	12
Richmond 77 - Saint Bonaventure 76	0.507	Richmond 78 - Saint Bonaventure 61	-16
Samford 75 - Mercer 66	0.789	Samford 65 - Mercer 68	12
South Dakota 71 - North Dakota State 68	0.6	South Dakota 69 - North Dakota State 70	4
South Florida 77 - Tulane 68	0.774	South Florida 67 - Tulane 82	24
Southern Illinois 67 - Illinois State 74	0.746	Southern Illinois 53 - Illinois State 60	0
Stephen F Austin 68 - Texas AM CC 71	0.591	Stephen F Austin 79 - Texas AM CC 46	-36
Tennessee 71 - South Carolina 72	0.524	Tennessee 60 - South Carolina 70	9
Texas 69 - Texas Christian 74	0.643	Texas 61 - Texas Christian 64	-2
Texas AM 79 - Louisiana State 73	0.659	Texas AM 92 - Louisiana State 62	-24
Tulsa 71 - Memphis 75	0.62	Tulsa 81 - Memphis 71	-14
UNC Asheville 84 - Longwood 59	0.978	UNC Asheville 89 - Longwood 68	4
Virginia Commonwealth 81 - George Washington 66	0.914	Virginia Commonwealth 85 - George Washington 55	-15
Wake Forest 77 - North Carolina 83	0.629	Wake Forest 87 - North Carolina 93	0
Wichita State 83 - Loyola Ill 68	0.894	Wichita State 87 - Loyola Ill 75	3
Winthrop 85 - Presbyterian 58	0.997	Winthrop 75 - Presbyterian 52	4
Wyoming 77 - Utah State 72	0.692	Wyoming 95 - Utah State 87	-3

GAMES OF 1-12

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 67 - Southeast Louisiana 71	0.606	Abilene Christian 50 - Southeast Louisiana 56	2
Alabama Birmingham 75 - Western Kentucky 65	0.748	Alabama Birmingham 72 - Western Kentucky 54	-8
Arizona 86 - Arizona State 66	0.939	Arizona 91 - Arizona State 75	4
Brigham Young 82 - San Francisco 70	0.822	Brigham Young 85 - San Francisco 75	2
Bryant 70 - Wagner 71	0.549	Bryant 77 - Wagner 66	-12
Cal Poly 72 - Cal State Fullerton 68	0.634	Cal Poly 74 - Cal State Fullerton 87	17
California 81 - Washington 69	0.869	California 69 - Washington 59	2
Charlotte 75 - Louisiana Tech 77	0.567	Charlotte 73 - Louisiana Tech 79	4
Cincinnati 74 - Southern Methodist 66	0.725	Cincinnati 66 - Southern Methodist 64	6
Cleveland State 70 - Illinois Chicago 69	0.547	Cleveland State 54 - Illinois Chicago 59	6
Colorado 74 - UCLA 83	0.791	Colorado 89 - UCLA 104	6
East Tennessee State 77 - UNC Greensboro 65	0.849	East Tennessee State 79 - UNC Greensboro 83	16
Eastern Illinois 75 - Murray State 69	0.653	Eastern Illinois 72 - Murray State 83	17
Eastern Kentucky 66 - Tennessee State 73	0.66	Eastern Kentucky 49 - Tennessee State 63	7
Elon 77 - Hofstra 72	0.637	Elon 96 - Hofstra 80	-11
Georgia Tech 67 - Clemson 78	0.734	Georgia Tech 75 - Clemson 63	-23
Gonzaga 86 - Loyola Marymount 60	0.996	Gonzaga 93 - Loyola Marymount 55	-12
Green Bay 74 - Wright State 72	0.593	Green Bay 78 - Wright State 61	-15
Houston Baptist 80 - Central Arkansas 66	0.827	Houston Baptist 78 - Central Arkansas 89	25
Idaho State 67 - Eastern Washington 76	0.775	Idaho State 85 - Eastern Washington 92	-2
Iowa 73 - Purdue 82	0.763	Iowa 83 - Purdue 78	-14
James Madison 58 - College of Charleston 70	0.812	James Madison 51 - College of Charleston 53	-10
Kennesaw St 68 - Florida Gulf Coast 79	0.872	Kennesaw St 75 - Florida Gulf Coast 78	-8
Lipscomb 84 - Stetson 71	0.834	Lipscomb 94 - Stetson 68	-13
LIU Brooklyn 79 - Central Connecticut State 59	0.912	LIU Brooklyn 60 - Central Connecticut State 49	9
Miami 72 - Notre Dame 73	0.549	Miami 62 - Notre Dame 67	4
Middle Tennessee 83 - Marshall 73	0.741	Middle Tennessee 69 - Marshall 57	-2
Milwaukee 63 - Northern Kentucky 73	0.799	Milwaukee 68 - Northern Kentucky 58	-20
Montana 76 - Northern Colorado 65	0.809	Montana 89 - Northern Colorado 68	-10
Montana State 75 - North Dakota 74	0.513	Montana State 85 - North Dakota 90	6
Morehead State 72 - Belmont 77	0.687	Morehead State 78 - Belmont 84	1
Mt St Marys 77 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71	0.69	Mt St Marys 77 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70	-1
New Mexico State 77 - Grand Canyon 66	0.788	New Mexico State 81 - Grand Canyon 69	-1
New Orleans 74 - Sam Houston State 68	0.666	New Orleans 68 - Sam Houston State 70	8
NJ Tech 75 - Jacksonville 67	0.714	NJ Tech 81 - Jacksonville 82	9
Northeastern 82 - Drexel 64	0.904	Northeastern 92 - Drexel 75	1
Northwestern State 73 - Nicholls State 76	0.584	Northwestern State 86 - Nicholls State 81	-8
Old Dominion 77 - Southern Miss 50	0.986	Old Dominion 54 - Southern Miss 50	23
Oral Roberts 78 - South Dakota State 71	0.665	Oral Roberts 94 - South Dakota State 88	1
Pacific 73 - Pepperdine 65	0.78	Pacific 79 - Pepperdine 74	3
Portland 61 - Saint Marys 77	0.898	Portland 33 - Saint Marys 74	25
Rhode Island 82 - La Salle 71	0.856	Rhode Island 75 - La Salle 87	23
Robert Morris 72 - Saint Francis Penn 65	0.729	Robert Morris 57 - Saint Francis Penn 77	27
Rutgers 66 - Northwestern 74	0.767	Rutgers 60 - Northwestern 69	1
Saint Francis Brooklyn 69 - Sacred Heart 70	0.51	Saint Francis Brooklyn 75 - Sacred Heart 87	11
San Diego 67 - Santa Clara 68	0.505	San Diego 57 - Santa Clara 59	1
Seattle 74 - UMKC 72	0.577	Seattle 68 - UMKC 84	18
Siena 75 - Quinnipiac 68	0.713	Siena 81 - Quinnipiac 74	0
SIU Edwardsville 75 - Austin Peay 72	0.592	SIU Edwardsville 81 - Austin Peay 83	5
South Carolina Upstate 79 - North Florida 67	0.813	South Carolina Upstate 65 - North Florida 73	20
Southern Utah 77 - Sacramento State 71	0.705	Southern Utah 83 - Sacramento State 88	11
Stanford 75 - Washington State 68	0.69	Stanford 84 - Washington State 54	-23
Texas El Paso 67 - Florida International 68	0.537	Texas El Paso 88 - Florida International 87	-2
Texas Pan American 69 - Cal State Bakersfield 74	0.648	Texas Pan American 81 - Cal State Bakersfield 88	2
Texas San Antonio 69 - Florida Atlantic 66	0.564	Texas San Antonio 68 - Florida Atlantic 63	-2
Towson 72 - Delaware 62	0.752	Towson 83 - Delaware 56	-17
UC Riverside 65 - UC Davis 72	0.695	UC Riverside 61 - UC Davis 55	-13
UC Santa Barbara 65 - UC Irvine 73	0.721	UC Santa Barbara 62 - UC Irvine 66	-4
UNC Wilmington 86 - William and Mary 69	0.91	UNC Wilmington 101 - William and Mary 77	-7
Utah 75 - Southern California 76	0.527	Utah 86 - Southern California 64	-23
Utah Valley 81 - Chicago State 67	0.804	Utah Valley 61 - Chicago State 70	23
Virginia Military Institute 66 - Western Carolina 67	0.539	Virginia Military Institute 79 - Western Carolina 78	-2
Weber State 76 - Idaho 62	0.891	Weber State 91 - Idaho 66	-11
Wisconsin 77 - Ohio State 64	0.811	Wisconsin 89 - Ohio State 66	-10
Youngstown State 70 - Valparaiso 81	0.815	Youngstown State 62 - Valparaiso 78	5

GAMES OF 1-13

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Central Michigan 76 - Toledo 81	0.635	Central Michigan 96 - Toledo 88	-13
Manhattan 72 - Rider 74	0.575	Manhattan 76 - Rider 73	-5
Oakland 87 - Detroit 59	0.997	Oakland 88 - Detroit 93	33
Pennsylvania 72 - Yale 69	0.595	Pennsylvania 60 - Yale 68	11
Princeton 81 - Brown 65	0.941	Princeton 97 - Brown 66	-15
Vermont 80 - UMBC 67	0.911	Vermont 81 - UMBC 72	4

GAMES OF 1-14

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 68 - Lamar 72	0.595	Abilene Christian 67 - Lamar 64	-7
Air Force 72 - San Jose State 70	0.544	Air Force 85 - San Jose State 89	6
Alabama AM 66 - Alabama State 67	0.548	Alabama AM 55 - Alabama State 57	1
Alabama Birmingham 78 - Marshall 80	0.555	Alabama Birmingham 94 - Marshall 78	-18
Alcorn State 77 - Mississippi Valley State 66	0.838	Alcorn State 77 - Mississippi Valley State 84	18
American 67 - Army 71	0.631	American 49 - Army 53	0
Arkansas 84 - Missouri 63	0.956	Arkansas 92 - Missouri 73	2
Arkansas Little Rock 66 - Arkansas State 72	0.673	Arkansas Little Rock 72 - Arkansas State 77	-1
Bowling Green 71 - Northern Illinois 68	0.632	Bowling Green 52 - Northern Illinois 69	20
Bryant 77 - Sacred Heart 71	0.674	Bryant 110 - Sacred Heart 112	8
Buffalo 76 - Ball State 69	0.716	Buffalo 77 - Ball State 92	22
Butler 78 - Xavier 72	0.689	Butler 83 - Xavier 78	1
Cal State Northridge 74 - UC Davis 73	0.546	Cal State Northridge 68 - UC Davis 71	4
California 78 - Washington State 62	0.928	California 58 - Washington State 54	12
Campbell 68 - Winthrop 77	0.853	Campbell 63 - Winthrop 72	0
Canisius 82 - Marist 66	0.907	Canisius 91 - Marist 58	-17
Central Connecticut State 69 - Fairleigh Dickinson 78	0.727	Central Connecticut State 47 - Fairleigh Dickinson 59	3
Central Florida 68 - Houston 69	0.526	Central Florida 77 - Houston 70	-8
Charleston Southern 66 - UNC Asheville 82	0.949	Charleston Southern 67 - UNC Asheville 76	-7
Charlotte 82 - Southern Miss 64	0.898	Charlotte 82 - Southern Miss 66	2
Clemson 70 - Virginia 71	0.527	Clemson 73 - Virginia 77	3
Cleveland State 65 - Valparaiso 74	0.782	Cleveland State 67 - Valparaiso 78	2
Coastal Carolina 79 - Appalachian State 68	0.761	Coastal Carolina 85 - Appalachian State 73	-1
Colgate 62 - Bucknell 79	0.97	Colgate 69 - Bucknell 83	-3
College of Charleston 78 - William and Mary 65	0.834	College of Charleston 77 - William and Mary 67	3
Colorado State 76 - New Mexico 70	0.701	Colorado State 71 - New Mexico 84	19
Coppin State 66 - North Carolina AT 63	0.577	Coppin State 75 - North Carolina AT 73	1
Cornell 74 - Columbia 75	0.555	Cornell 75 - Columbia 79	3
Creighton 105 - Unranked 49		Creighton 101 - Unranked 69
Davidson 73 - Virginia Commonwealth 76	0.6	Davidson 69 - Virginia Commonwealth 63	-9
Delaware State 70 - Hampton 69	0.505	Delaware State 77 - Hampton 85	9
Denver 70 - North Dakota State 69	0.517	Denver 79 - North Dakota State 55	-23
Drexel 73 - Delaware 68	0.639	Drexel 76 - Delaware 60	-11
Duquesne 64 - Dayton 78	0.949	Duquesne 57 - Dayton 76	5
East Tennessee State 80 - Western Carolina 54	0.976	East Tennessee State 75 - Western Carolina 52	3
Eastern Illinois 80 - Austin Peay 66	0.899	Eastern Illinois 84 - Austin Peay 92	22
Eastern Kentucky 68 - Belmont 78	0.747	Eastern Kentucky 59 - Belmont 72	3
Evansville 72 - Southern Illinois 68	0.626	Evansville 61 - Southern Illinois 73	16
Florida 79 - Georgia 66	0.968	Florida 80 - Georgia 76	9
Fresno State 71 - Boise State 75	0.633	Fresno State 89 - Boise State 80	-13
George Mason 80 - Saint Louis 60	0.934	George Mason 56 - Saint Louis 63	27
Georgetown 77 - Connecticut 67	0.789	Georgetown 72 - Connecticut 69	7
Gonzaga 76 - Saint Marys 66	0.827	Gonzaga 79 - Saint Marys 56	-13
Hawaii 70 - Long Beach State 69	0.516	Hawaii 114 - Long Beach State 107	-6
High Point 76 - Presbyterian 61	0.862	High Point 77 - Presbyterian 44	-18
Idaho State 68 - Idaho 69	0.549	Idaho State 62 - Idaho 77	14
Illinois 74 - Maryland 73	0.502	Illinois 56 - Maryland 62	7
Illinois State 73 - Wichita State 74	0.5	Illinois State 76 - Wichita State 62	-15
Incarnate Word 71 - Houston Baptist 77	0.647	Incarnate Word 82 - Houston Baptist 77	-11
Indiana State 74 - Bradley 68	0.651	Indiana State 81 - Bradley 71	-4
James Madison 67 - Elon 70	0.579	James Madison 60 - Elon 59	-4
Kansas 89 - Oklahoma State 75	0.861	Kansas 87 - Oklahoma State 80	7
Kansas State 67 - Baylor 72	0.712	Kansas State 68 - Baylor 77	4
Kennesaw St 78 - Stetson 73	0.692	Kennesaw St 84 - Stetson 65	-14
Kentucky 94 - Auburn 69	0.952	Kentucky 92 - Auburn 72	5
Lafayette 68 - Navy 69	0.534	Lafayette 51 - Navy 88	36
Lehigh 74 - Holy Cross 64	0.768	Lehigh 68 - Holy Cross 51	-7
Lipscomb 74 - Florida Gulf Coast 78	0.631	Lipscomb 80 - Florida Gulf Coast 84	0
LIU Brooklyn 77 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 60	0.911	LIU Brooklyn 63 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 58	12
Longwood 66 - Gardner Webb 76	0.795	Longwood 79 - Gardner Webb 85	-4
Louisiana State 73 - Alabama 74	0.536	Louisiana State 66 - Alabama 81	14
Louisville 75 - Duke 71	0.6	Louisville 78 - Duke 69	-5
Maine 68 - Stony Brook 74	0.658	Maine 54 - Stony Brook 74	14
Marquette 86 - DePaul 67	0.901	Marquette 83 - DePaul 58	-6
Maryland Eastern Shore 73 - Howard 65	0.742	Maryland Eastern Shore 66 - Howard 74	16
Memphis 83 - South Florida 63	0.943	Memphis 62 - South Florida 56	14
Mercer 65 - Chattanooga 74	0.769	Mercer 68 - Chattanooga 70	-7
Miami OH 66 - Akron 77	0.807	Miami OH 70 - Akron 74	-7
Michigan 76 - Nebraska 68	0.72	Michigan 91 - Nebraska 85	2
Middle Tennessee 80 - Western Kentucky 58	0.926	Middle Tennessee 91 - Western Kentucky 76	7
Milwaukee 65 - Wright State 70	0.685	Milwaukee 67 - Wright State 70	-2
Mississippi State 72 - Texas AM 69	0.582	Mississippi State 67 - Texas AM 59	-5
Montana 77 - North Dakota 66	0.759	Montana 76 - North Dakota 70	5
Montana State 73 - Northern Colorado 74	0.511	Montana State 68 - Northern Colorado 53	-16
Morehead State 70 - Tennessee State 71	0.552	Morehead State 87 - Tennessee State 85	-3
Mt St Marys 75 - Saint Francis Penn 66	0.772	Mt St Marys 78 - Saint Francis Penn 72	3
New Hampshire 73 - Binghamton 62	0.821	New Hampshire 73 - Binghamton 66	4
New Mexico State 73 - Cal State Bakersfield 63	0.837	New Mexico State 63 - Cal State Bakersfield 58	5
Niagara 70 - Monmouth 80	0.785	Niagara 83 - Monmouth 90	-3
NJ Tech 77 - North Florida 67	0.783	NJ Tech 84 - North Florida 78	4
Norfolk State 64 - North Carolina Central 75	0.866	Norfolk State 57 - North Carolina Central 72	4
North Carolina 82 - Florida State 76	0.609	North Carolina 96 - Florida State 83	-7
Northern Arizona 72 - Sacramento State 69	0.608	Northern Arizona 62 - Sacramento State 74	15
Northwestern State 70 - Sam Houston State 77	0.742	Northwestern State 68 - Sam Houston State 77	2
Ohio 78 - Eastern Michigan 67	0.714	Ohio 49 - Eastern Michigan 53	15
Oklahoma 69 - Texas Tech 75	0.697	Oklahoma 84 - Texas Tech 75	-15
Old Dominion 70 - Louisiana Tech 63	0.748	Old Dominion 63 - Louisiana Tech 75	19
Omaha 79 - Western Illinois 70	0.746	Omaha 86 - Western Illinois 72	-5
Oral Roberts 77 - IUPUI 75	0.553	Oral Roberts 85 - IUPUI 91	8
Oregon 86 - Oregon State 52	0.993	Oregon 85 - Oregon State 43	-8
Penn State 71 - Minnesota 77	0.689	Penn State 52 - Minnesota 50	-8
Pennsylvania 79 - Brown 65	0.891	Pennsylvania 70 - Brown 82	26
Pepperdine 67 - Santa Clara 72	0.651	Pepperdine 61 - Santa Clara 75	9
Pittsburgh 76 - Miami 72	0.625	Pittsburgh 46 - Miami 72	30
Portland 71 - Loyola Marymount 70	0.537	Portland 78 - Loyola Marymount 79	2
Prairie View 68 - Jackson State 70	0.581	Prairie View 63 - Jackson State 56	-9
Princeton 75 - Yale 69	0.696	Princeton 66 - Yale 58	-2
Providence 71 - Seton Hall 72	0.505	Providence 65 - Seton Hall 61	-5
Quinnipiac 71 - Iona 76	0.635	Quinnipiac 97 - Iona 91	-11
Radford 70 - Liberty 63	0.702	Radford 64 - Liberty 71	14
Rice 80 - North Texas 65	0.892	Rice 101 - North Texas 79	-7
Saint Bonaventure 81 - Fordham 63	0.924	Saint Bonaventure 73 - Fordham 53	-2
Saint Johns 69 - Villanova 84	0.808	Saint Johns 57 - Villanova 70	-2
Saint Josephs 77 - Richmond 71	0.674	Saint Josephs 66 - Richmond 70	10
San Diego 69 - Brigham Young 80	0.849	San Diego 88 - Brigham Young 75	-24
San Diego State 73 - Utah State 67	0.704	San Diego State 74 - Utah State 55	-13
San Francisco 76 - Pacific 64	0.832	San Francisco 72 - Pacific 51	-9
Savannah State 85 - Florida AM 77	0.703	Savannah State 93 - Florida AM 88	3
Seattle 76 - Chicago State 66	0.75	Seattle 65 - Chicago State 50	-5
SIU Edwardsville 69 - Murray State 75	0.659	SIU Edwardsville 59 - Murray State 67	2
South Alabama 69 - Texas State 66	0.585	South Alabama 72 - Texas State 67	-2
South Carolina 77 - Mississippi 68	0.778	South Carolina 67 - Mississippi 56	-2
South Carolina State 79 - Bethune Cookman 68	0.775	South Carolina State 78 - Bethune Cookman 74	7
South Carolina Upstate 76 - Jacksonville 67	0.749	South Carolina Upstate 73 - Jacksonville 66	2
South Dakota 75 - IPFW 74	0.507	South Dakota 66 - IPFW 63	-2
Southern 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 62	0.915	Southern 76 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 75	15
Southern Utah 72 - Portland State 82	0.731	Southern Utah 77 - Portland State 88	1
Stanford 78 - Washington 75	0.593	Stanford 76 - Washington 69	-4
Stephen F Austin 71 - Nicholls State 70	0.514	Stephen F Austin 80 - Nicholls State 60	-19
Syracuse 81 - Boston College 69	0.724	Syracuse 76 - Boston College 53	-11
Temple 77 - Tulsa 67	0.75	Temple 68 - Tulsa 70	12
Tennessee Martin 77 - SE Missouri State 68	0.742	Tennessee Martin 79 - SE Missouri State 69	-1
Tennessee Tech 68 - Jacksonville State 69	0.543	Tennessee Tech 59 - Jacksonville State 74	14
Texas 67 - West Virginia 81	0.809	Texas 72 - West Virginia 74	-12
Texas AM CC 80 - Central Arkansas 68	0.821	Texas AM CC 88 - Central Arkansas 81	5
Texas Christian 73 - Iowa State 70	0.589	Texas Christian 84 - Iowa State 77	-4
Texas El Paso 67 - Florida Atlantic 71	0.635	Texas El Paso 66 - Florida Atlantic 65	-5
Texas Pan American 72 - Grand Canyon 76	0.593	Texas Pan American 66 - Grand Canyon 79	9
Texas San Antonio 69 - Florida International 63	0.647	Texas San Antonio 57 - Florida International 55	4
Texas Southern 87 - Grambling State 63	0.982	Texas Southern 76 - Grambling State 55	3
The Citadel 77 - Samford 86	0.75	The Citadel 90 - Samford 98	-1
Towson 68 - Northeastern 73	0.642	Towson 74 - Northeastern 67	-12
Troy 69 - Texas Arlington 79	0.799	Troy 93 - Texas Arlington 71	-32
UC Irvine 78 - Cal State Fullerton 64	0.859	UC Irvine 87 - Cal State Fullerton 67	-6
UC Santa Barbara 70 - Cal Poly 68	0.572	UC Santa Barbara 58 - Cal Poly 53	-3
UL Lafayette 78 - Georgia Southern 69	0.755	UL Lafayette 76 - Georgia Southern 81	14
UL Monroe 67 - Georgia State 71	0.608	UL Monroe 65 - Georgia State 73	4
UMass Lowell 80 - Hartford 71	0.759	UMass Lowell 71 - Hartford 55	-7
UNC Wilmington 86 - Hofstra 67	0.904	UNC Wilmington 84 - Hofstra 76	11
Utah 76 - UCLA 85	0.788	Utah 82 - UCLA 83	-8
Utah Valley 78 - UMKC 72	0.686	Utah Valley 86 - UMKC 76	-4
Vanderbilt 76 - Tennessee 72	0.623	Vanderbilt 75 - Tennessee 87	16
Virginia Military Institute 62 - UNC Greensboro 77	0.909	Virginia Military Institute 82 - UNC Greensboro 91	-6
Virginia Tech 75 - Notre Dame 77	0.559	Virginia Tech 71 - Notre Dame 76	3
Wagner 68 - Robert Morris 63	0.711	Wagner 53 - Robert Morris 50	2
Weber State 75 - Eastern Washington 68	0.686	Weber State 70 - Eastern Washington 67	4
Western Michigan 71 - Kent State 74	0.571	Western Michigan 92 - Kent State 88	-7
Wofford 71 - Furman 72	0.535	Wofford 67 - Furman 58	-10
Wyoming 75 - Nevada 78	0.605	Wyoming 74 - Nevada 89	12
Youngstown State 75 - Illinois Chicago 76	0.526	Youngstown State 89 - Illinois Chicago 92	2

GAMES OF 1-15

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Colorado 73 - Southern California 75	0.556	Colorado 68 - Southern California 71	1
East Carolina 58 - Cincinnati 77	0.945	East Carolina 46 - Cincinnati 55	-10
Fairfield 78 - Siena 68	0.819	Fairfield 54 - Siena 63	19
Indiana 81 - Rutgers 64	0.905	Indiana 76 - Rutgers 57	-2
La Salle 81 - George Washington 74	0.809	La Salle 79 - George Washington 69	-3
Loyola Ill 77 - Missouri State 70	0.731	Loyola Ill 77 - Missouri State 71	1
NC State 80 - Georgia Tech 68	0.728	NC State 76 - Georgia Tech 86	22
Northern Iowa 75 - Drake 67	0.719	Northern Iowa 79 - Drake 60	-11
Northwestern 81 - Iowa 70	0.801	Northwestern 89 - Iowa 54	-24
Ohio State 73 - Michigan State 72	0.549	Ohio State 72 - Michigan State 67	-4
Rhode Island 80 - Massachusetts 66	0.891	Rhode Island 79 - Massachusetts 77	12
Rider 70 - Saint Peters 65	0.645	Rider 65 - Saint Peters 71	11
Southeast Louisiana 74 - Mcneese State 66	0.708	Southeast Louisiana 79 - Mcneese State 75	4
Tulane 60 - Southern Methodist 84	0.972	Tulane 64 - Southern Methodist 80	-8

Number of DI Games: 327
Number Correct: 212 = 64.8%
Expected Number Correct: 234.667 = 71.7%
Average Error: 9.36
Average Signed Error: 0.86

WEEK 11 -- 1-16 to 1-22

GAMES OF 1-16

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alcorn State 71 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 63	0.727	Alcorn State 82 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 64	-10
Bryant 69 - Harvard 80	0.843	Bryant 65 - Harvard 70	-6
Butler 83 - Marquette 73	0.816	Butler 88 - Marquette 80	2
Canisius 78 - Monmouth 76	0.551	Canisius 72 - Monmouth 76	6
Delaware State 70 - Norfolk State 68	0.559	Delaware State 70 - Norfolk State 75	7
Detroit 78 - Youngstown State 75	0.616	Detroit 87 - Youngstown State 71	-13
Florida AM 75 - Bethune Cookman 69	0.687	Florida AM 76 - Bethune Cookman 82	12
Georgetown 77 - Providence 70	0.68	Georgetown 56 - Providence 74	25
Hampton 65 - North Carolina Central 72	0.733	Hampton 51 - North Carolina Central 64	6
Hartford 73 - Maine 69	0.62	Hartford 54 - Maine 44	-6
Howard 71 - Coppin State 63	0.723	Howard 72 - Coppin State 81	17
Iowa State 76 - Kansas 79	0.603	Iowa State 72 - Kansas 76	1
Loyola MD 68 - Boston 73	0.661	Loyola MD 77 - Boston 69	-13
Morgan State 71 - North Carolina AT 61	0.788	Morgan State 82 - North Carolina AT 53	-19
New Hampshire 66 - Vermont 72	0.713	New Hampshire 59 - Vermont 71	6
Niagara 74 - Marist 68	0.679	Niagara 87 - Marist 93	12
North Carolina 86 - Syracuse 69	0.778	North Carolina 85 - Syracuse 68	0
Northern Arizona 66 - Portland State 80	0.814	Northern Arizona 83 - Portland State 76	-21
Oakland 79 - Cleveland State 59	0.943	Oakland 65 - Cleveland State 76	31
Prairie View 76 - Grambling State 66	0.794	Prairie View 94 - Grambling State 82	-2
Saint Johns 81 - DePaul 71	0.7	Saint Johns 78 - DePaul 68	0
South Alabama 68 - Texas Arlington 76	0.685	South Alabama 83 - Texas Arlington 89	-2
South Carolina State 83 - Savannah State 77	0.669	South Carolina State 82 - Savannah State 86	10
Southern 80 - Mississippi Valley State 68	0.866	Southern 87 - Mississippi Valley State 81	6
Texas Southern 79 - Jackson State 63	0.934	Texas Southern 67 - Jackson State 44	-7
Troy 75 - Texas State 66	0.761	Troy 71 - Texas State 75	13
UL Lafayette 78 - Georgia State 67	0.802	UL Lafayette 86 - Georgia State 101	26
UL Monroe 66 - Georgia Southern 75	0.75	UL Monroe 60 - Georgia Southern 62	-7
UMass Lowell 72 - Stony Brook 73	0.534	UMass Lowell 75 - Stony Brook 86	10
UMBC 76 - Albany 68	0.83	UMBC 50 - Albany 77	35
Valparaiso 79 - Green Bay 69	0.811	Valparaiso 80 - Green Bay 56	-14
Villanova 83 - Seton Hall 66	0.925	Villanova 76 - Seton Hall 46	-13
Xavier 78 - Creighton 79	0.512	Xavier 67 - Creighton 72	4

GAMES OF 1-17

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 73 - Ohio 66	0.684	Akron 83 - Ohio 68	-8
Ball State 79 - Central Michigan 76	0.587	Ball State 98 - Central Michigan 83	-12
Baylor 80 - Texas 60	0.923	Baylor 74 - Texas 64	10
Boise State 78 - New Mexico 70	0.732	Boise State 70 - New Mexico 81	19
Central Florida 78 - South Florida 58	0.907	Central Florida 86 - South Florida 64	-2
Eastern Michigan 78 - Western Michigan 67	0.725	Eastern Michigan 86 - Western Michigan 80	5
Evansville 66 - Wichita State 78	0.805	Evansville 65 - Wichita State 82	5
Fairfield 69 - Saint Peters 66	0.569	Fairfield 55 - Saint Peters 69	17
Georgia 78 - Vanderbilt 69	0.769	Georgia 76 - Vanderbilt 68	1
Grand Canyon 89 - Unranked 54		Grand Canyon 90 - Unranked 58
Illinois Chicago 74 - Milwaukee 64	0.802	Illinois Chicago 71 - Milwaukee 57	-4
Kent State 75 - Buffalo 70	0.641	Kent State 69 - Buffalo 82	18
Manhattan 72 - Iona 75	0.579	Manhattan 67 - Iona 82	12
Mississippi 77 - Tennessee 76	0.517	Mississippi 80 - Tennessee 69	-10
Mississippi State 70 - Kentucky 84	0.828	Mississippi State 81 - Kentucky 88	-7
NC State 80 - Pittsburgh 79	0.509	NC State 79 - Pittsburgh 74	-4
Nevada Las Vegas 67 - San Diego State 71	0.603	Nevada Las Vegas 51 - San Diego State 64	9
Northern Illinois 74 - Miami OH 63	0.871	Northern Illinois 62 - Miami OH 58	7
Purdue 81 - Illinois 68	0.802	Purdue 91 - Illinois 68	-10
Saint Louis 65 - Saint Bonaventure 77	0.815	Saint Louis 52 - Saint Bonaventure 71	7
Siena 72 - Rider 67	0.7	Siena 78 - Rider 68	-5
Texas AM 74 - Arkansas 75	0.532	Texas AM 60 - Arkansas 62	1
Toledo 79 - Bowling Green 67	0.804	Toledo 85 - Bowling Green 73	0
Wisconsin 78 - Michigan 65	0.822	Wisconsin 68 - Michigan 64	9

GAMES OF 1-18

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 78 - Missouri 60	0.944	Alabama 68 - Missouri 56	6
American 74 - Lafayette 64	0.756	American 71 - Lafayette 57	-4
Army 68 - Holy Cross 64	0.61	Army 76 - Holy Cross 85	13
Auburn 85 - Louisiana State 76	0.726	Auburn 78 - Louisiana State 74	5
Boston 82 - Colgate 62	0.972	Boston 58 - Colgate 67	29
Boston College 62 - Virginia 79	0.878	Boston College 54 - Virginia 71	0
Bradley 62 - Illinois State 77	0.856	Bradley 49 - Illinois State 69	5
Bucknell 78 - Loyola MD 62	0.931	Bucknell 76 - Loyola MD 63	3
Cal Poly 63 - UC Irvine 73	0.787	Cal Poly 48 - UC Irvine 70	12
Cal State Fullerton 73 - UC Riverside 67	0.686	Cal State Fullerton 63 - UC Riverside 71	14
Chicago State 81 - Unranked 60		Chicago State 77 - Unranked 57
Cincinnati 82 - Temple 64	0.91	Cincinnati 81 - Temple 74	11
Drake 72 - Southern Illinois 77	0.636	Drake 88 - Southern Illinois 84	-9
Florida State 80 - Notre Dame 74	0.694	Florida State 83 - Notre Dame 80	3
Fordham 62 - Virginia Commonwealth 77	0.853	Fordham 69 - Virginia Commonwealth 67	-17
Fresno State 73 - Colorado State 71	0.581	Fresno State 78 - Colorado State 57	-19
George Washington 76 - Duquesne 69	0.735	George Washington 65 - Duquesne 63	5
Hawaii 74 - Cal State Northridge 72	0.574	Hawaii 80 - Cal State Northridge 77	-1
Indiana State 72 - Missouri State 74	0.545	Indiana State 68 - Missouri State 73	3
IUPUI 80 - South Dakota State 71	0.774	IUPUI 85 - South Dakota State 83	7
Massachusetts 77 - Saint Josephs 70	0.717	Massachusetts 62 - Saint Josephs 57	2
Mcneese State 75 - Central Arkansas 71	0.605	Mcneese State 82 - Central Arkansas 72	-6
Navy 68 - Lehigh 73	0.628	Navy 75 - Lehigh 72	-8
Nebraska 75 - Ohio State 73	0.558	Nebraska 66 - Ohio State 67	3
Nevada 85 - Air Force 66	0.942	Nevada 83 - Air Force 76	12
Northern Iowa 68 - Loyola Ill 72	0.613	Northern Iowa 72 - Loyola Ill 69	-7
Oklahoma State 79 - Kansas State 77	0.577	Oklahoma State 88 - Kansas State 96	10
Omaha 74 - Denver 73	0.552	Omaha 97 - Denver 88	-8
Oral Roberts 71 - South Dakota 74	0.581	Oral Roberts 90 - South Dakota 80	-13
Penn State 75 - Indiana 76	0.516	Penn State 75 - Indiana 78	2
San Jose State 74 - Wyoming 75	0.531	San Jose State 70 - Wyoming 80	9
South Carolina 71 - Florida 72	0.532	South Carolina 57 - Florida 53	-5
Texas Tech 71 - Texas Christian 72	0.503	Texas Tech 75 - Texas Christian 69	-7
Tulsa 83 - Tulane 65	0.928	Tulsa 89 - Tulane 82	11
Virginia Tech 78 - Georgia Tech 69	0.697	Virginia Tech 62 - Georgia Tech 61	8
Wake Forest 75 - Miami 73	0.559	Wake Forest 96 - Miami 79	-15
Washington 77 - Colorado 76	0.526	Washington 85 - Colorado 83	-1
Washington State 70 - Utah 78	0.729	Washington State 47 - Utah 88	33
West Virginia 89 - Oklahoma 66	0.941	West Virginia 87 - Oklahoma 89	25

GAMES OF 1-19

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Albany 74 - Binghamton 62	0.895	Albany 84 - Binghamton 65	-7
Austin Peay 75 - Morehead State 79	0.615	Austin Peay 82 - Morehead State 89	3
Belmont 76 - Jacksonville State 64	0.851	Belmont 77 - Jacksonville State 60	-5
Brigham Young 88 - Pepperdine 64	0.97	Brigham Young 99 - Pepperdine 70	-5
Campbell 71 - High Point 65	0.65	Campbell 78 - High Point 83	11
College of Charleston 70 - UNC Wilmington 71	0.524	College of Charleston 59 - UNC Wilmington 65	5
Dayton 78 - Richmond 65	0.87	Dayton 75 - Richmond 59	-3
Delaware 62 - Northeastern 75	0.802	Delaware 69 - Northeastern 62	-20
Eastern Washington 83 - Northern Arizona 61	0.956	Eastern Washington 84 - Northern Arizona 62	0
Elon 80 - Drexel 69	0.792	Elon 93 - Drexel 73	-9
Fairleigh Dickinson 79 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 65	0.878	Fairleigh Dickinson 57 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 40	-3
Florida Atlantic 64 - Alabama Birmingham 75	0.801	Florida Atlantic 78 - Alabama Birmingham 80	-9
Florida Gulf Coast 78 - South Carolina Upstate 65	0.878	Florida Gulf Coast 60 - South Carolina Upstate 62	15
Florida International 57 - Middle Tennessee 79	0.956	Florida International 52 - Middle Tennessee 65	-9
Furman 67 - East Tennessee State 72	0.646	Furman 75 - East Tennessee State 62	-18
Hofstra 74 - Towson 73	0.517	Hofstra 80 - Towson 86	7
Houston 78 - Memphis 70	0.697	Houston 67 - Memphis 70	11
Idaho 79 - Southern Utah 66	0.871	Idaho 79 - Southern Utah 67	1
Iowa 74 - Maryland 78	0.623	Iowa 76 - Maryland 84	4
Jacksonville 73 - Lipscomb 75	0.557	Jacksonville 95 - Lipscomb 112	15
La Salle 82 - Davidson 74	0.738	La Salle 91 - Davidson 83	0
Liberty 70 - Gardner Webb 67	0.621	Liberty 65 - Gardner Webb 62	0
LIU Brooklyn 69 - Wagner 63	0.691	LIU Brooklyn 76 - Wagner 69	-1
Long Beach State 77 - UC Santa Barbara 69	0.74	Long Beach State 81 - UC Santa Barbara 76	3
Longwood 67 - Radford 72	0.627	Longwood 60 - Radford 72	7
Louisiana Tech 78 - Rice 73	0.68	Louisiana Tech 74 - Rice 64	-5
Louisville 80 - Clemson 69	0.822	Louisville 92 - Clemson 60	-21
Loyola Marymount 74 - San Diego 67	0.723	Loyola Marymount 62 - San Diego 69	14
Maine 65 - New Hampshire 74	0.747	Maine 63 - New Hampshire 74	2
Murray State 78 - Eastern Kentucky 66	0.77	Murray State 86 - Eastern Kentucky 79	5
New Orleans 74 - Houston Baptist 67	0.692	New Orleans 72 - Houston Baptist 64	-1
Nicholls State 73 - Abilene Christian 68	0.63	Nicholls State 62 - Abilene Christian 59	2
North Dakota 69 - Weber State 73	0.597	North Dakota 83 - Weber State 77	-10
North Dakota State 73 - IPFW 72	0.505	North Dakota State 89 - IPFW 83	-5
North Florida 74 - Kennesaw St 71	0.601	North Florida 86 - Kennesaw St 84	1
Northern Colorado 76 - Idaho State 63	0.834	Northern Colorado 69 - Idaho State 73	17
Oregon 76 - California 64	0.876	Oregon 86 - California 63	-11
Oregon State 63 - Stanford 75	0.78	Oregon State 46 - Stanford 62	4
Portland State 74 - Montana 73	0.507	Portland State 88 - Montana 79	-8
Presbyterian 67 - Charleston Southern 73	0.694	Presbyterian 52 - Charleston Southern 73	15
Robert Morris 73 - Central Connecticut State 57	0.889	Robert Morris 74 - Central Connecticut State 67	9
Sacramento State 72 - Montana State 74	0.606	Sacramento State 65 - Montana State 74	7
Sacred Heart 71 - Mt St Marys 74	0.62	Sacred Heart 75 - Mt St Marys 86	8
Saint Francis Penn 78 - Bryant 72	0.654	Saint Francis Penn 75 - Bryant 61	-8
Saint Marys 80 - Pacific 53	0.979	Saint Marys 62 - Pacific 50	15
Saint Peters 67 - Siena 62	0.654	Saint Peters 77 - Siena 65	-7
Sam Houston State 74 - Lamar 66	0.721	Sam Houston State 87 - Lamar 65	-14
San Francisco 78 - Portland 65	0.819	San Francisco 75 - Portland 50	-12
Santa Clara 61 - Gonzaga 81	0.934	Santa Clara 57 - Gonzaga 88	11
SE Missouri State 75 - SIU Edwardsville 65	0.757	SE Missouri State 79 - SIU Edwardsville 76	7
Southern California 71 - Arizona 76	0.664	Southern California 66 - Arizona 73	2
Southern Methodist 76 - Connecticut 61	0.878	Southern Methodist 69 - Connecticut 49	-5
Southern Miss 66 - North Texas 68	0.57	Southern Miss 75 - North Texas 65	-12
Stetson 71 - NJ Tech 76	0.645	Stetson 82 - NJ Tech 76	-11
Stony Brook 78 - Hartford 63	0.853	Stony Brook 80 - Hartford 64	-1
Tennessee Martin 75 - Eastern Illinois 69	0.729	Tennessee Martin 82 - Eastern Illinois 71	-5
Tennessee State 75 - Tennessee Tech 59	0.897	Tennessee State 74 - Tennessee Tech 80	22
Texas AM CC 70 - Stephen F Austin 68	0.553	Texas AM CC 58 - Stephen F Austin 61	5
UCLA 95 - Arizona State 74	0.945	UCLA 102 - Arizona State 80	-1
UNC Greensboro 74 - Mercer 65	0.793	UNC Greensboro 68 - Mercer 66	7
Vermont 83 - UMass Lowell 63	0.976	Vermont 81 - UMass Lowell 67	6
Western Carolina 77 - The Citadel 75	0.555	Western Carolina 100 - The Citadel 95	-3
William and Mary 74 - James Madison 66	0.719	William and Mary 73 - James Madison 72	7
Winthrop 75 - UNC Asheville 72	0.617	Winthrop 76 - UNC Asheville 73	0
Wofford 82 - Virginia Military Institute 65	0.933	Wofford 88 - Virginia Military Institute 70	-1

GAMES OF 1-20

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 75 - Eastern Michigan 68	0.662	Akron 70 - Eastern Michigan 63	0
Brown 71 - Yale 77	0.687	Brown 74 - Yale 75	-5
Green Bay 84 - Youngstown State 69	0.872	Green Bay 89 - Youngstown State 92	18
Iona 78 - Fairfield 70	0.686	Iona 96 - Fairfield 89	1
Milwaukee 67 - Cleveland State 64	0.592	Milwaukee 63 - Cleveland State 62	2
Monmouth 83 - Manhattan 67	0.895	Monmouth 82 - Manhattan 71	5
Northern Kentucky 69 - Oakland 73	0.646	Northern Kentucky 70 - Oakland 79	5
Quinnipiac 73 - Canisius 78	0.656	Quinnipiac 95 - Canisius 90	-10
Wright State 79 - Detroit 66	0.856	Wright State 106 - Detroit 88	-5

GAMES OF 1-21

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 63 - Southern 77	0.889	Alabama AM 52 - Southern 53	-13
Alabama State 65 - Alcorn State 66	0.562	Alabama State 71 - Alcorn State 78	6
Arkansas 88 - Louisiana State 72	0.859	Arkansas 99 - Louisiana State 86	3
Arkansas Little Rock 72 - South Alabama 65	0.701	Arkansas Little Rock 73 - South Alabama 56	-10
Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 - Texas Southern 78	0.882	Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 - Texas Southern 70	-6
Arkansas State 78 - Troy 68	0.752	Arkansas State 82 - Troy 80	8
Army 69 - Navy 66	0.603	Army 80 - Navy 96	19
Auburn 74 - Alabama 73	0.527	Auburn 84 - Alabama 64	-19
Austin Peay 73 - Murray State 78	0.635	Austin Peay 84 - Murray State 81	-8
Belmont 80 - Tennessee Tech 60	0.969	Belmont 82 - Tennessee Tech 70	8
Bethune Cookman 71 - Maryland Eastern Shore 75	0.646	Bethune Cookman 79 - Maryland Eastern Shore 82	-1
Boston College 69 - North Carolina 87	0.837	Boston College 82 - North Carolina 90	-10
Bowling Green 71 - Ball State 72	0.527	Bowling Green 79 - Ball State 74	-6
Bucknell 76 - Boston 69	0.746	Bucknell 70 - Boston 59	-4
Buffalo 75 - Western Michigan 71	0.593	Buffalo 66 - Western Michigan 54	-8
Cal Poly 73 - Long Beach State 74	0.546	Cal Poly 92 - Long Beach State 98	5
Cal State Bakersfield 77 - Utah Valley 67	0.795	Cal State Bakersfield 68 - Utah Valley 65	7
Cal State Northridge 72 - UC Irvine 74	0.572	Cal State Northridge 73 - UC Irvine 105	30
Central Arkansas 71 - New Orleans 75	0.611	Central Arkansas 63 - New Orleans 81	14
Central Michigan 81 - Miami OH 70	0.829	Central Michigan 101 - Miami OH 92	2
Charleston Southern 76 - Longwood 69	0.736	Charleston Southern 76 - Longwood 61	-8
Charlotte 70 - Old Dominion 72	0.578	Charlotte 74 - Old Dominion 72	-4
Chattanooga 77 - Samford 65	0.847	Chattanooga 82 - Samford 78	8
Colgate 68 - Loyola MD 70	0.581	Colgate 52 - Loyola MD 49	-5
College of Charleston 72 - James Madison 55	0.923	College of Charleston 73 - James Madison 60	4
Columbia 80 - Cornell 69	0.847	Columbia 62 - Cornell 67	16
Creighton 86 - Marquette 75	0.82	Creighton 94 - Marquette 102	19
Delaware 64 - Towson 71	0.69	Delaware 58 - Towson 75	10
DePaul 65 - Butler 83	0.9	DePaul 69 - Butler 70	-17
Duke 78 - Miami 68	0.712	Duke 70 - Miami 58	-2
Duquesne 69 - Rhode Island 77	0.772	Duquesne 69 - Rhode Island 90	13
Eastern Washington 85 - Southern Utah 66	0.946	Eastern Washington 83 - Southern Utah 68	4
Elon 78 - William and Mary 73	0.668	Elon 71 - William and Mary 62	-4
Fairleigh Dickinson 73 - LIU Brooklyn 71	0.544	Fairleigh Dickinson 83 - LIU Brooklyn 66	-15
Florida 83 - Vanderbilt 66	0.941	Florida 66 - Vanderbilt 68	19
Florida Atlantic 58 - Middle Tennessee 78	0.945	Florida Atlantic 57 - Middle Tennessee 86	9
Florida Gulf Coast 80 - NJ Tech 65	0.91	Florida Gulf Coast 84 - NJ Tech 71	2
Florida International 62 - Alabama Birmingham 75	0.832	Florida International 94 - Alabama Birmingham 85	-22
Florida State 77 - Louisville 74	0.596	Florida State 73 - Louisville 68	-2
Furman 80 - Virginia Military Institute 60	0.928	Furman 89 - Virginia Military Institute 72	3
Gardner Webb 80 - Presbyterian 58	0.961	Gardner Webb 78 - Presbyterian 61	5
Georgia Southern 80 - Appalachian State 66	0.841	Georgia Southern 92 - Appalachian State 88	10
Georgia State 73 - Coastal Carolina 69	0.59	Georgia State 76 - Coastal Carolina 56	-16
Gonzaga 90 - Portland 56	0.995	Gonzaga 73 - Portland 52	13
Grambling State 66 - Jackson State 70	0.613	Grambling State 72 - Jackson State 57	-19
Grand Canyon 77 - Seattle 64	0.839	Grand Canyon 61 - Seattle 59	11
Harvard 80 - Dartmouth 60	0.972	Harvard 82 - Dartmouth 68	6
Hawaii 69 - UC Davis 68	0.528	Hawaii 70 - UC Davis 76	7
Hofstra 72 - Northeastern 77	0.621	Hofstra 78 - Northeastern 73	-10
Idaho 77 - Northern Arizona 62	0.899	Idaho 65 - Northern Arizona 49	-1
Illinois State 85 - Drake 60	0.965	Illinois State 72 - Drake 58	11
Incarnate Word 70 - Stephen F Austin 72	0.564	Incarnate Word 70 - Stephen F Austin 68	-4
Indiana 78 - Michigan State 72	0.665	Indiana 82 - Michigan State 75	-1
IUPUI 72 - Denver 73	0.518	IUPUI 74 - Denver 78	3
Jacksonville 74 - Kennesaw St 69	0.66	Jacksonville 71 - Kennesaw St 81	15
Kansas 86 - Texas 65	0.946	Kansas 79 - Texas 67	9
Kansas State 72 - West Virginia 78	0.687	Kansas State 79 - West Virginia 75	-10
Kent State 76 - Toledo 75	0.523	Kent State 85 - Toledo 61	-23
Kentucky 83 - South Carolina 69	0.862	Kentucky 85 - South Carolina 69	-2
Lehigh 87 - Lafayette 62	0.945	Lehigh 75 - Lafayette 68	18
Liberty 67 - Winthrop 71	0.69	Liberty 48 - Winthrop 61	9
Louisiana Tech 79 - North Texas 61	0.928	Louisiana Tech 81 - North Texas 57	-6
Loyola Ill 75 - Evansville 65	0.785	Loyola Ill 67 - Evansville 61	4
Marshall 86 - Western Kentucky 73	0.803	Marshall 94 - Western Kentucky 80	-1
Massachusetts 77 - Fordham 62	0.868	Massachusetts 68 - Fordham 71	18
Mcneese State 75 - Northwestern State 69	0.691	Mcneese State 65 - Northwestern State 78	19
Michigan 76 - Illinois 71	0.63	Michigan 66 - Illinois 57	-4
Minnesota 70 - Wisconsin 71	0.505	Minnesota 76 - Wisconsin 78	1
Mississippi Valley State 74 - Prairie View 73	0.501	Mississippi Valley State 72 - Prairie View 87	16
Missouri 70 - Mississippi 77	0.72	Missouri 71 - Mississippi 75	-3
Missouri State 77 - Bradley 66	0.803	Missouri State 76 - Bradley 62	-3
Morehead State 79 - Eastern Kentucky 68	0.774	Morehead State 80 - Eastern Kentucky 54	-15
NC State 79 - Wake Forest 80	0.515	NC State 88 - Wake Forest 93	4
Nevada 82 - Fresno State 69	0.856	Nevada 76 - Fresno State 81	18
Nevada Las Vegas 76 - Air Force 69	0.672	Nevada Las Vegas 87 - Air Force 85	5
New Mexico 79 - Wyoming 74	0.642	New Mexico 78 - Wyoming 71	-2
New Mexico State 81 - UMKC 62	0.955	New Mexico State 94 - UMKC 71	-4
Nicholls State 72 - Lamar 73	0.514	Nicholls State 76 - Lamar 87	10
Norfolk State 69 - Hampton 67	0.565	Norfolk State 79 - Hampton 62	-15
North Carolina AT 66 - Howard 68	0.549	North Carolina AT 63 - Howard 78	13
North Dakota 79 - Idaho State 64	0.836	North Dakota 89 - Idaho State 64	-10
North Florida 73 - Lipscomb 77	0.601	North Florida 90 - Lipscomb 84	-10
Northern Colorado 66 - Weber State 72	0.669	Northern Colorado 69 - Weber State 74	-1
Northern Illinois 66 - Ohio 68	0.55	Northern Illinois 69 - Ohio 78	7
Notre Dame 81 - Syracuse 68	0.759	Notre Dame 84 - Syracuse 66	-5
Oklahoma 72 - Iowa State 78	0.667	Oklahoma 87 - Iowa State 92	-1
Oral Roberts 77 - Omaha 78	0.507	Oral Roberts 103 - Omaha 86	-18
Oregon 82 - Stanford 63	0.897	Oregon 69 - Stanford 52	2
Oregon State 57 - California 76	0.94	Oregon State 58 - California 69	-8
Pacific 68 - Brigham Young 79	0.774	Pacific 47 - Brigham Young 62	4
Pennsylvania 68 - Saint Josephs 73	0.653	Pennsylvania 71 - Saint Josephs 78	2
Portland State 81 - Montana State 70	0.757	Portland State 65 - Montana State 71	17
Purdue 81 - Penn State 69	0.815	Purdue 77 - Penn State 52	-13
Radford 71 - High Point 64	0.662	Radford 58 - High Point 61	10
Rider 77 - Marist 64	0.856	Rider 84 - Marist 66	-5
Robert Morris 73 - Bryant 69	0.658	Robert Morris 56 - Bryant 59	7
Rutgers 70 - Nebraska 72	0.592	Rutgers 65 - Nebraska 64	-3
Sacramento State 64 - Montana 77	0.905	Sacramento State 92 - Montana 83	-22
Sacred Heart 69 - Wagner 70	0.508	Sacred Heart 62 - Wagner 67	4
Saint Francis Brooklyn 63 - Mt St Marys 73	0.844	Saint Francis Brooklyn 47 - Mt St Marys 55	-2
Saint Francis Penn 77 - Central Connecticut State 61	0.862	Saint Francis Penn 83 - Central Connecticut State 84	17
Saint Marys 85 - Pepperdine 53	0.996	Saint Marys 85 - Pepperdine 65	12
Saint Peters 73 - Niagara 61	0.797	Saint Peters 55 - Niagara 57	14
Sam Houston State 75 - Texas AM CC 67	0.732	Sam Houston State 76 - Texas AM CC 62	-6
San Diego 70 - San Francisco 73	0.591	San Diego 43 - San Francisco 60	14
San Jose State 70 - Boise State 75	0.664	San Jose State 65 - Boise State 75	5
Santa Clara 71 - Loyola Marymount 67	0.633	Santa Clara 64 - Loyola Marymount 63	3
Savannah State 77 - Morgan State 76	0.552	Savannah State 74 - Morgan State 61	-12
SE Missouri State 71 - Eastern Illinois 70	0.527	SE Missouri State 83 - Eastern Illinois 71	-11
South Carolina State 74 - Delaware State 68	0.641	South Carolina State 74 - Delaware State 64	-4
South Dakota State 72 - IPFW 81	0.758	South Dakota State 77 - IPFW 67	-19
South Florida 66 - Tulsa 75	0.758	South Florida 67 - Tulsa 79	3
Southeast Louisiana 71 - Houston Baptist 67	0.607	Southeast Louisiana 83 - Houston Baptist 71	-8
Southern Illinois 74 - Northern Iowa 64	0.749	Southern Illinois 57 - Northern Iowa 58	11
Southern Methodist 75 - Houston 67	0.698	Southern Methodist 85 - Houston 64	-13
Southern Miss 64 - Rice 80	0.892	Southern Miss 58 - Rice 61	-13
Stetson 70 - South Carolina Upstate 76	0.699	Stetson 86 - South Carolina Upstate 97	5
Tennessee 77 - Mississippi State 70	0.675	Tennessee 91 - Mississippi State 74	-10
Tennessee Martin 79 - SIU Edwardsville 64	0.901	Tennessee Martin 75 - SIU Edwardsville 67	7
Tennessee State 70 - Jacksonville State 63	0.715	Tennessee State 79 - Jacksonville State 86	14
Texas AM 71 - Georgia 72	0.531	Texas AM 63 - Georgia 62	-2
Texas Arlington 81 - UL Monroe 61	0.892	Texas Arlington 71 - UL Monroe 55	4
Texas Christian 71 - Baylor 73	0.58	Texas Christian 53 - Baylor 62	7
Texas El Paso 66 - Texas San Antonio 68	0.542	Texas El Paso 59 - Texas San Antonio 39	-22
Texas Pan American 76 - Chicago State 68	0.685	Texas Pan American 85 - Chicago State 77	0
Texas State 67 - UL Lafayette 74	0.728	Texas State 73 - UL Lafayette 79	-1
Texas Tech 80 - Oklahoma State 76	0.619	Texas Tech 64 - Oklahoma State 83	23
Tulane 61 - Cincinnati 85	0.976	Tulane 61 - Cincinnati 78	-7
UC Riverside 68 - UC Santa Barbara 65	0.591	UC Riverside 65 - UC Santa Barbara 55	-7
UCLA 80 - Arizona 76	0.646	UCLA 85 - Arizona 96	15
UNC Asheville 79 - Campbell 63	0.918	UNC Asheville 72 - Campbell 56	0
UNC Greensboro 89 - The Citadel 71	0.914	UNC Greensboro 81 - The Citadel 72	9
UNC Wilmington 89 - Drexel 65	0.976	UNC Wilmington 87 - Drexel 74	11
Utah State 71 - Colorado State 72	0.502	Utah State 56 - Colorado State 64	7
Villanova 82 - Providence 61	0.942	Villanova 78 - Providence 68	11
Virginia 78 - Georgia Tech 59	0.867	Virginia 62 - Georgia Tech 49	6
Washington 76 - Utah 80	0.643	Washington 72 - Utah 94	18
Washington State 71 - Colorado 74	0.597	Washington State 91 - Colorado 89	-5
Western Carolina 63 - Mercer 69	0.709	Western Carolina 50 - Mercer 70	14
Western Illinois 66 - North Dakota State 72	0.674	Western Illinois 57 - North Dakota State 89	26
Wichita State 87 - Indiana State 65	0.936	Wichita State 84 - Indiana State 58	-4

GAMES OF 1-22

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Albany 77 - Maine 62	0.899	Albany 81 - Maine 63	-3
Binghamton 66 - Stony Brook 71	0.648	Binghamton 71 - Stony Brook 67	-9
Clemson 80 - Virginia Tech 74	0.665	Clemson 81 - Virginia Tech 82	7
Connecticut 72 - East Carolina 60	0.849	Connecticut 72 - East Carolina 65	5
Dayton 81 - Saint Louis 53	0.993	Dayton 67 - Saint Louis 46	7
East Tennessee State 81 - Wofford 65	0.896	East Tennessee State 79 - Wofford 72	9
Hartford 65 - New Hampshire 74	0.739	Hartford 56 - New Hampshire 81	16
Manhattan 71 - Siena 70	0.511	Manhattan 68 - Siena 81	14
Memphis 73 - Central Florida 69	0.608	Memphis 70 - Central Florida 65	-1
Milwaukee 74 - Youngstown State 68	0.652	Milwaukee 94 - Youngstown State 85	-3
Monmouth 81 - Fairfield 69	0.842	Monmouth 91 - Fairfield 49	-30
Northern Kentucky 80 - Detroit 66	0.882	Northern Kentucky 101 - Detroit 87	0
Ohio State 72 - Northwestern 74	0.554	Ohio State 72 - Northwestern 74	0
Richmond 77 - George Mason 71	0.671	Richmond 77 - George Mason 82	11
Seton Hall 83 - Saint Johns 71	0.755	Seton Hall 86 - Saint Johns 73	-1
Southern California 85 - Arizona State 73	0.803	Southern California 82 - Arizona State 79	9
UMass Lowell 73 - UMBC 78	0.693	UMass Lowell 86 - UMBC 102	11
Valparaiso 80 - Illinois Chicago 66	0.942	Valparaiso 96 - Illinois Chicago 65	-17
Virginia Commonwealth 82 - La Salle 74	0.746	Virginia Commonwealth 90 - La Salle 52	-30
Wright State 67 - Oakland 74	0.712	Wright State 88 - Oakland 67	-28
Xavier 82 - Georgetown 72	0.744	Xavier 86 - Georgetown 75	-1

Number of DI Games: 330
Number Correct: 245 = 74.2%
Expected Number Correct: 241.178 = 73%
Average Error: 8.86
Average Signed Error: 1.38

WEEK 12 -- 1-23 to 1-29

GAMES OF 1-23

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 62 - Alcorn State 72	0.788	Alabama AM 70 - Alcorn State 81	1
Alabama State 64 - Southern 71	0.772	Alabama State 79 - Southern 65	-21
Arkansas Little Rock 73 - Troy 69	0.63	Arkansas Little Rock 69 - Troy 78	13
Arkansas Pine Bluff 67 - Prairie View 70	0.601	Arkansas Pine Bluff 71 - Prairie View 68	-6
Arkansas State 78 - South Alabama 63	0.85	Arkansas State 74 - South Alabama 62	3
Coppin State 67 - Norfolk State 69	0.56	Coppin State 64 - Norfolk State 74	8
Duke 87 - NC State 70	0.82	Duke 82 - NC State 84	19
Florida AM 69 - Maryland Eastern Shore 73	0.634	Florida AM 79 - Maryland Eastern Shore 86	3
Georgia Southern 77 - Coastal Carolina 68	0.741	Georgia Southern 91 - Coastal Carolina 80	-2
Georgia State 79 - Appalachian State 66	0.807	Georgia State 83 - Appalachian State 72	2
Green Bay 74 - Cleveland State 66	0.719	Green Bay 83 - Cleveland State 73	-2
Holy Cross 69 - American 58	0.839	Holy Cross 63 - American 55	3
Iona 80 - Quinnipiac 70	0.778	Iona 84 - Quinnipiac 74	0
Mississippi Valley State 67 - Texas Southern 82	0.916	Mississippi Valley State 103 - Texas Southern 89	-29
Niagara 71 - Canisius 78	0.695	Niagara 91 - Canisius 84	-14
North Carolina Central 77 - Howard 57	0.937	North Carolina Central 74 - Howard 39	-15
Oklahoma State 80 - Texas Christian 78	0.573	Oklahoma State 89 - Texas Christian 76	-11
Portland 60 - Gonzaga 86	0.982	Portland 64 - Gonzaga 83	-7
Saint Peters 70 - Rider 62	0.719	Saint Peters 56 - Rider 51	3
Savannah State 81 - Delaware State 73	0.704	Savannah State 94 - Delaware State 79	-7
South Carolina State 70 - Morgan State 66	0.607	South Carolina State 75 - Morgan State 77	6
Texas 76 - Oklahoma 74	0.573	Texas 84 - Oklahoma 83	1
Texas Arlington 78 - UL Lafayette 72	0.66	Texas Arlington 108 - UL Lafayette 71	-31
Texas State 70 - UL Monroe 62	0.736	Texas State 63 - UL Monroe 57	2

GAMES OF 1-24

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 67 - San Diego State 75	0.728	Air Force 60 - San Diego State 57	-11
Central Michigan 80 - Bowling Green 72	0.751	Central Michigan 82 - Bowling Green 76	2
Davidson 80 - Duquesne 68	0.851	Davidson 74 - Duquesne 60	-2
Eastern Michigan 77 - Ball State 67	0.725	Eastern Michigan 80 - Ball State 88	18
Houston 86 - Tulane 64	0.946	Houston 65 - Tulane 51	8
Iowa State 77 - Kansas State 73	0.619	Iowa State 70 - Kansas State 65	-1
Marquette 75 - Villanova 82	0.702	Marquette 74 - Villanova 72	-9
Maryland 80 - Rutgers 62	0.947	Maryland 67 - Rutgers 55	6
Miami OH 69 - Buffalo 72	0.604	Miami OH 75 - Buffalo 74	-4
Michigan State 72 - Purdue 77	0.633	Michigan State 73 - Purdue 84	6
Missouri State 82 - Drake 69	0.859	Missouri State 71 - Drake 72	14
New Mexico 80 - Utah State 68	0.834	New Mexico 74 - Utah State 61	-1
Northern Illinois 72 - Kent State 68	0.617	Northern Illinois 66 - Kent State 73	11
Notre Dame 72 - Virginia 71	0.549	Notre Dame 54 - Virginia 71	18
Ohio 77 - Toledo 67	0.726	Ohio 76 - Toledo 79	13
Pittsburgh 71 - Louisville 81	0.743	Pittsburgh 51 - Louisville 106	45
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Saint Josephs 71	0.76	Saint Bonaventure 67 - Saint Josephs 63	4
South Carolina 80 - Auburn 68	0.82	South Carolina 98 - Auburn 69	-17
Syracuse 78 - Wake Forest 79	0.517	Syracuse 81 - Wake Forest 76	-6
Tennessee 75 - Kentucky 87	0.83	Tennessee 82 - Kentucky 80	-14
Vanderbilt 76 - Arkansas 77	0.508	Vanderbilt 70 - Arkansas 71	0
West Virginia 81 - Kansas 80	0.539	West Virginia 85 - Kansas 69	-15
Western Michigan 67 - Akron 77	0.753	Western Michigan 80 - Akron 90	0
Wichita State 84 - Southern Illinois 65	0.955	Wichita State 87 - Southern Illinois 45	-23
Wisconsin 80 - Penn State 64	0.902	Wisconsin 82 - Penn State 55	-11

GAMES OF 1-25

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Albany 67 - Vermont 71	0.667	Albany 49 - Vermont 60	7
American 64 - Navy 68	0.616	American 53 - Navy 71	14
Arizona State 85 - Washington 79	0.673	Arizona State 86 - Washington 75	-5
Baylor 79 - Texas Tech 63	0.913	Baylor 65 - Texas Tech 61	12
Binghamton 73 - Hartford 65	0.738	Binghamton 76 - Hartford 55	-13
Boise State 76 - Nevada 75	0.53	Boise State 57 - Nevada 76	20
Boston 77 - Army 69	0.756	Boston 90 - Army 89	7
Central Connecticut State 69 - Bryant 74	0.674	Central Connecticut State 54 - Bryant 65	6
Central Florida 67 - Southern Methodist 72	0.635	Central Florida 60 - Southern Methodist 65	0
Chattanooga 86 - Virginia Military Institute 57	0.996	Chattanooga 64 - Virginia Military Institute 80	45
Colgate 68 - Lehigh 76	0.746	Colgate 62 - Lehigh 76	6
Colorado State 75 - San Jose State 65	0.781	Colorado State 81 - San Jose State 72	1
Denver 77 - South Dakota State 66	0.804	Denver 91 - South Dakota State 82	2
East Carolina 66 - Tulsa 72	0.69	East Carolina 69 - Tulsa 66	-9
Eastern Illinois 65 - Belmont 76	0.864	Eastern Illinois 64 - Belmont 77	2
Furman 75 - Western Carolina 56	0.912	Furman 85 - Western Carolina 37	-29
George Mason 78 - George Washington 70	0.726	George Mason 68 - George Washington 87	27
Georgetown 76 - Creighton 83	0.695	Georgetown 71 - Creighton 51	-27
Georgia 75 - Alabama 66	0.779	Georgia 60 - Alabama 80	29
Georgia Tech 69 - Florida State 81	0.763	Georgia Tech 78 - Florida State 56	-34
Hampton 71 - South Carolina State 68	0.617	Hampton 66 - South Carolina State 68	5
Hawaii 70 - UC Riverside 63	0.693	Hawaii 64 - UC Riverside 70	13
Idaho State 64 - Weber State 77	0.847	Idaho State 73 - Weber State 85	-1
Illinois 80 - Iowa 74	0.642	Illinois 76 - Iowa 64	-6
Illinois State 82 - Indiana State 60	0.962	Illinois State 71 - Indiana State 66	17
IPFW 80 - IUPUI 71	0.769	IPFW 103 - IUPUI 73	-21
Jacksonville 77 - Stetson 69	0.715	Jacksonville 103 - Stetson 92	-3
Kennesaw St 73 - NJ Tech 71	0.601	Kennesaw St 71 - NJ Tech 65	-4
La Salle 83 - Pennsylvania 68	0.867	La Salle 74 - Pennsylvania 77	18
Lafayette 63 - Bucknell 81	0.931	Lafayette 55 - Bucknell 78	5
Lamar 74 - Texas AM CC 68	0.653	Lamar 66 - Texas AM CC 69	9
Lipscomb 77 - South Carolina Upstate 73	0.638	Lipscomb 84 - South Carolina Upstate 77	-3
Louisiana State 71 - Florida 85	0.861	Louisiana State 71 - Florida 106	21
Loyola Ill 79 - Bradley 65	0.869	Loyola Ill 70 - Bradley 50	-6
Loyola MD 66 - Holy Cross 65	0.501	Loyola MD 65 - Holy Cross 62	-2
Miami 80 - Boston College 65	0.822	Miami 78 - Boston College 77	14
Mississippi 75 - Texas AM 71	0.629	Mississippi 76 - Texas AM 80	8
Mississippi State 80 - Missouri 64	0.863	Mississippi State 89 - Missouri 74	1
New Hampshire 78 - UMass Lowell 65	0.863	New Hampshire 80 - UMass Lowell 71	4
North Dakota State 78 - Oral Roberts 67	0.722	North Dakota State 81 - Oral Roberts 71	1
North Florida 68 - Florida Gulf Coast 75	0.737	North Florida 82 - Florida Gulf Coast 86	-3
Northern Iowa 70 - Evansville 65	0.637	Northern Iowa 61 - Evansville 54	-2
Ohio State 73 - Minnesota 74	0.548	Ohio State 78 - Minnesota 72	-7
Providence 80 - Saint Johns 70	0.72	Providence 86 - Saint Johns 91	15
Richmond 72 - Rhode Island 75	0.598	Richmond 73 - Rhode Island 62	-14
Saint Louis 64 - Massachusetts 74	0.812	Saint Louis 74 - Massachusetts 70	-14
Samford 71 - East Tennessee State 73	0.589	Samford 86 - East Tennessee State 96	8
Seton Hall 73 - Butler 78	0.65	Seton Hall 54 - Butler 61	2
SIU Edwardsville 63 - Tennessee State 72	0.765	SIU Edwardsville 56 - Tennessee State 76	11
South Dakota 77 - Western Illinois 62	0.874	South Dakota 62 - Western Illinois 55	8
South Florida 66 - Connecticut 74	0.754	South Florida 60 - Connecticut 81	13
Southeast Louisiana 76 - Northwestern State 66	0.756	Southeast Louisiana 71 - Northwestern State 85	24
Southern California 79 - UCLA 84	0.663	Southern California 84 - UCLA 76	-13
Stephen F Austin 75 - Central Arkansas 65	0.758	Stephen F Austin 78 - Central Arkansas 76	8
Stony Brook 73 - UMBC 71	0.557	Stony Brook 83 - UMBC 73	-8
Temple 75 - Memphis 76	0.537	Temple 77 - Memphis 66	-12
UC Santa Barbara 73 - Cal State Northridge 74	0.518	UC Santa Barbara 57 - Cal State Northridge 78	20
Wofford 71 - UNC Greensboro 72	0.551	Wofford 93 - UNC Greensboro 74	-20
Wyoming 79 - Nevada Las Vegas 70	0.749	Wyoming 66 - Nevada Las Vegas 65	8

GAMES OF 1-26

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 70 - Louisiana Tech 72	0.542	Alabama Birmingham 79 - Louisiana Tech 70	-11
Arizona 86 - Washington State 59	0.973	Arizona 79 - Washington State 62	10
Austin Peay 73 - Tennessee Martin 77	0.648	Austin Peay 79 - Tennessee Martin 85	2
Chicago State 61 - Cal State Bakersfield 72	0.776	Chicago State 59 - Cal State Bakersfield 75	5
Cincinnati 77 - Xavier 71	0.669	Cincinnati 86 - Xavier 78	-2
Colorado 80 - Oregon State 61	0.932	Colorado 85 - Oregon State 78	12
Drexel 76 - Hofstra 78	0.544	Drexel 81 - Hofstra 80	-3
Florida International 72 - Florida Atlantic 67	0.64	Florida International 65 - Florida Atlantic 83	23
Gardner Webb 69 - Winthrop 75	0.719	Gardner Webb 70 - Winthrop 72	-4
Gonzaga 88 - San Diego 57	0.997	Gonzaga 79 - San Diego 43	-5
High Point 74 - Charleston Southern 66	0.73	High Point 72 - Charleston Southern 69	5
Houston Baptist 76 - Nicholls State 69	0.698	Houston Baptist 83 - Nicholls State 80	4
Incarnate Word 73 - Abilene Christian 68	0.647	Incarnate Word 82 - Abilene Christian 79	2
Jacksonville State 76 - Eastern Kentucky 61	0.824	Jacksonville State 52 - Eastern Kentucky 57	20
James Madison 63 - UNC Wilmington 78	0.899	James Madison 76 - UNC Wilmington 87	-4
Long Beach State 81 - Cal State Fullerton 72	0.787	Long Beach State 76 - Cal State Fullerton 65	-2
Longwood 63 - Liberty 71	0.786	Longwood 62 - Liberty 93	23
Loyola Marymount 73 - Pacific 65	0.753	Loyola Marymount 79 - Pacific 73	2
Marist 61 - Saint Peters 69	0.699	Marist 65 - Saint Peters 81	8
Marshall 85 - Texas San Antonio 66	0.863	Marshall 92 - Texas San Antonio 71	-2
Michigan 76 - Indiana 75	0.529	Michigan 90 - Indiana 60	-29
Middle Tennessee 81 - Southern Miss 51	0.984	Middle Tennessee 72 - Southern Miss 56	14
Montana 74 - Eastern Washington 69	0.649	Montana 60 - Eastern Washington 72	17
Montana State 72 - Idaho 67	0.694	Montana State 94 - Idaho 91	2
Mt St Marys 72 - Robert Morris 60	0.868	Mt St Marys 48 - Robert Morris 47	11
Murray State 77 - SE Missouri State 69	0.716	Murray State 74 - SE Missouri State 75	9
New Orleans 77 - Mcneese State 63	0.859	New Orleans 75 - Mcneese State 56	-5
Niagara 74 - Manhattan 71	0.576	Niagara 69 - Manhattan 70	4
North Carolina 87 - Virginia Tech 73	0.789	North Carolina 91 - Virginia Tech 72	-5
North Texas 72 - Charlotte 77	0.64	North Texas 81 - Charlotte 82	-4
Northeastern 75 - Elon 70	0.635	Northeastern 49 - Elon 51	7
Northern Arizona 66 - Northern Colorado 71	0.633	Northern Arizona 63 - Northern Colorado 50	-18
Northwestern 80 - Nebraska 67	0.85	Northwestern 73 - Nebraska 61	1
Pepperdine 72 - Portland 73	0.559	Pepperdine 78 - Portland 60	-19
Presbyterian 57 - UNC Asheville 81	0.98	Presbyterian 47 - UNC Asheville 73	2
Radford 71 - Campbell 65	0.684	Radford 61 - Campbell 78	23
Rice 71 - Old Dominion 67	0.662	Rice 72 - Old Dominion 80	12
Sacred Heart 71 - LIU Brooklyn 73	0.573	Sacred Heart 57 - LIU Brooklyn 60	1
Saint Francis Brooklyn 64 - Fairleigh Dickinson 74	0.773	Saint Francis Brooklyn 73 - Fairleigh Dickinson 79	-4
Saint Marys 76 - San Francisco 62	0.842	Saint Marys 66 - San Francisco 46	-6
Santa Clara 71 - Brigham Young 76	0.63	Santa Clara 76 - Brigham Young 68	-13
Seattle 63 - New Mexico State 78	0.947	Seattle 56 - New Mexico State 71	0
Southern Utah 69 - North Dakota 80	0.784	Southern Utah 89 - North Dakota 91	-9
Tennessee Tech 71 - Morehead State 73	0.567	Tennessee Tech 76 - Morehead State 73	-5
Towson 66 - College of Charleston 68	0.56	Towson 83 - College of Charleston 77	-8
UC Irvine 80 - Cal Poly 58	0.954	UC Irvine 66 - Cal Poly 79	35
UMKC 69 - Grand Canyon 72	0.587	UMKC 83 - Grand Canyon 77	-9
Utah 72 - Oregon 76	0.603	Utah 67 - Oregon 73	2
Utah Valley 81 - Texas Pan American 74	0.712	Utah Valley 92 - Texas Pan American 81	-4
Wagner 71 - Saint Francis Penn 66	0.667	Wagner 67 - Saint Francis Penn 72	10
Western Kentucky 74 - Texas El Paso 65	0.738	Western Kentucky 65 - Texas El Paso 62	6
William and Mary 77 - Delaware 65	0.775	William and Mary 82 - Delaware 58	-12

GAMES OF 1-27

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Columbia 77 - Dartmouth 66	0.853	Columbia 66 - Dartmouth 54	-1
Cornell 67 - Harvard 76	0.824	Cornell 71 - Harvard 77	-3
Detroit 72 - Milwaukee 71	0.548	Detroit 69 - Milwaukee 73	5
Illinois Chicago 72 - Northern Kentucky 71	0.56	Illinois Chicago 62 - Northern Kentucky 79	18
Monmouth 83 - Quinnipiac 66	0.897	Monmouth 95 - Quinnipiac 76	-2
Oakland 78 - Green Bay 68	0.745	Oakland 72 - Green Bay 80	18
Siena 73 - Iona 72	0.505	Siena 66 - Iona 77	12
Valparaiso 78 - Wright State 65	0.824	Valparaiso 70 - Wright State 55	-2
Virginia Commonwealth 73 - Dayton 71	0.55	Virginia Commonwealth 73 - Dayton 68	-3
Weber State 81 - Idaho State 60	0.951	Weber State 96 - Idaho State 74	-1
Yale 80 - Brown 67	0.875	Yale 85 - Brown 75	3

GAMES OF 1-28

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 78 - Buffalo 64	0.837	Akron 91 - Buffalo 90	13
Alabama 72 - Mississippi State 68	0.621	Alabama 71 - Mississippi State 62	-5
Alabama Birmingham 78 - Southern Miss 59	0.899	Alabama Birmingham 87 - Southern Miss 43	-25
Alcorn State 71 - Southern 69	0.564	Alcorn State 74 - Southern 64	-8
Appalachian State 70 - Texas Arlington 79	0.724	Appalachian State 67 - Texas Arlington 83	7
Army 68 - Bucknell 77	0.805	Army 75 - Bucknell 96	12
Austin Peay 75 - SE Missouri State 74	0.526	Austin Peay 71 - SE Missouri State 82	12
Ball State 77 - Western Michigan 70	0.682	Ball State 84 - Western Michigan 78	1
Bowling Green 65 - Ohio 73	0.722	Bowling Green 72 - Ohio 96	16
Brigham Young 83 - Loyola Marymount 68	0.895	Brigham Young 85 - Loyola Marymount 77	7
Bryant 74 - Fairleigh Dickinson 75	0.533	Bryant 73 - Fairleigh Dickinson 72	-2
Butler 84 - Georgetown 69	0.846	Butler 81 - Georgetown 85	19
Cal State Fullerton 75 - Cal Poly 68	0.747	Cal State Fullerton 81 - Cal Poly 71	-3
Campbell 65 - Liberty 66	0.509	Campbell 40 - Liberty 72	31
Canisius 81 - Manhattan 68	0.845	Canisius 78 - Manhattan 64	-1
Central Arkansas 77 - Incarnate Word 75	0.563	Central Arkansas 80 - Incarnate Word 81	3
Central Connecticut State 63 - LIU Brooklyn 73	0.757	Central Connecticut State 61 - LIU Brooklyn 52	-19
Charleston Southern 71 - Gardner Webb 73	0.575	Charleston Southern 76 - Gardner Webb 85	7
Chicago State 63 - Grand Canyon 73	0.725	Chicago State 77 - Grand Canyon 85	-2
Coastal Carolina 72 - Texas State 65	0.684	Coastal Carolina 50 - Texas State 52	9
Colorado 68 - Oregon 81	0.862	Colorado 74 - Oregon 65	-22
Columbia 70 - Harvard 75	0.699	Columbia 65 - Harvard 62	-8
Connecticut 81 - Tulane 65	0.918	Connecticut 78 - Tulane 68	6
Coppin State 67 - Morgan State 66	0.512	Coppin State 74 - Morgan State 76	3
Cornell 75 - Dartmouth 68	0.757	Cornell 75 - Dartmouth 62	-6
Creighton 90 - DePaul 65	0.961	Creighton 83 - DePaul 66	8
Delaware 64 - James Madison 65	0.501	Delaware 66 - James Madison 61	-6
Delaware State 73 - Florida AM 66	0.691	Delaware State 68 - Florida AM 81	20
Drake 72 - Northern Iowa 73	0.513	Drake 63 - Northern Iowa 71	7
Drexel 64 - College of Charleston 76	0.847	Drexel 76 - College of Charleston 90	2
East Tennessee State 72 - Chattanooga 69	0.593	East Tennessee State 76 - Chattanooga 71	-2
Eastern Illinois 75 - SIU Edwardsville 64	0.814	Eastern Illinois 75 - SIU Edwardsville 60	-4
Fairfield 77 - Marist 67	0.737	Fairfield 72 - Marist 62	0
Florida Gulf Coast 80 - Jacksonville 61	0.946	Florida Gulf Coast 78 - Jacksonville 56	-3
Fordham 69 - Davidson 72	0.6	Fordham 66 - Davidson 84	15
George Washington 75 - Saint Louis 61	0.897	George Washington 63 - Saint Louis 55	6
Georgia 77 - Texas 67	0.785	Georgia 59 - Texas 57	8
Georgia Tech 69 - Notre Dame 77	0.712	Georgia Tech 62 - Notre Dame 60	-10
Grambling State 71 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 67	0.631	Grambling State 61 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 53	-4
Hartford 63 - Albany 74	0.791	Hartford 61 - Albany 74	2
Hawaii 73 - UC Santa Barbara 64	0.79	Hawaii 78 - UC Santa Barbara 56	-13
Hofstra 76 - Elon 75	0.51	Hofstra 70 - Elon 84	15
Houston 78 - Temple 69	0.73	Houston 79 - Temple 66	-4
Howard 78 - Savannah State 76	0.56	Howard 70 - Savannah State 73	5
Indiana State 72 - Loyola Ill 76	0.65	Indiana State 66 - Loyola Ill 81	11
Iowa 78 - Ohio State 76	0.533	Iowa 85 - Ohio State 72	-11
Jackson State 74 - Mississippi Valley State 65	0.75	Jackson State 83 - Mississippi Valley State 68	-6
Jacksonville State 74 - Morehead State 69	0.655	Jacksonville State 69 - Morehead State 72	8
Kent State 80 - Central Michigan 75	0.626	Kent State 98 - Central Michigan 105	12
Kentucky 86 - Kansas 79	0.76	Kentucky 73 - Kansas 79	13
Lafayette 67 - Loyola MD 73	0.671	Lafayette 62 - Loyola MD 70	2
Lamar 77 - Northwestern State 69	0.723	Lamar 85 - Northwestern State 64	-13
Marquette 81 - Providence 72	0.76	Marquette 78 - Providence 79	10
Marshall 87 - Texas El Paso 68	0.899	Marshall 68 - Texas El Paso 91	42
Maryland Eastern Shore 74 - South Carolina State 70	0.651	Maryland Eastern Shore 92 - South Carolina State 69	-19
Massachusetts 76 - George Mason 72	0.613	Massachusetts 74 - George Mason 76	6
Memphis 79 - East Carolina 61	0.942	Memphis 57 - East Carolina 50	11
Mercer 86 - The Citadel 72	0.855	Mercer 82 - The Citadel 66	-2
Miami 72 - North Carolina 80	0.675	Miami 77 - North Carolina 62	-23
Miami OH 66 - Eastern Michigan 75	0.711	Miami OH 57 - Eastern Michigan 74	8
Middle Tennessee 73 - Louisiana Tech 64	0.79	Middle Tennessee 71 - Louisiana Tech 61	-1
Minnesota 75 - Maryland 71	0.619	Minnesota 78 - Maryland 85	11
Mississippi 68 - Baylor 79	0.822	Mississippi 75 - Baylor 78	-8
Missouri 61 - South Carolina 78	0.915	Missouri 53 - South Carolina 63	-7
Montana 74 - Idaho 63	0.816	Montana 77 - Idaho 85	19
Montana State 72 - Eastern Washington 73	0.522	Montana State 91 - Eastern Washington 90	-2
Mt St Marys 78 - Sacred Heart 65	0.883	Mt St Marys 67 - Sacred Heart 53	-1
Murray State 75 - Tennessee Martin 72	0.59	Murray State 94 - Tennessee Martin 86	-5
Navy 67 - Holy Cross 62	0.625	Navy 60 - Holy Cross 47	-8
Nevada 80 - New Mexico 73	0.75	Nevada 82 - New Mexico 65	-10
Niagara 72 - Rider 73	0.545	Niagara 80 - Rider 67	-14
Nicholls State 74 - Mcneese State 70	0.613	Nicholls State 78 - Mcneese State 74	0
NJ Tech 75 - Lipscomb 76	0.541	NJ Tech 62 - Lipscomb 66	3
Norfolk State 77 - Bethune Cookman 64	0.909	Norfolk State 73 - Bethune Cookman 66	6
North Carolina Central 80 - North Carolina AT 53	0.977	North Carolina Central 82 - North Carolina AT 59	4
North Texas 61 - Old Dominion 70	0.78	North Texas 67 - Old Dominion 73	-3
Northeastern 73 - Towson 69	0.618	Northeastern 69 - Towson 62	-3
Northern Arizona 65 - North Dakota 77	0.768	Northern Arizona 68 - North Dakota 67	-13
Oklahoma 73 - Florida 80	0.741	Oklahoma 52 - Florida 84	25
Oklahoma State 84 - Arkansas 80	0.606	Oklahoma State 99 - Arkansas 71	-24
Omaha 81 - South Dakota State 72	0.743	Omaha 84 - South Dakota State 88	13
Oral Roberts 76 - IPFW 77	0.508	Oral Roberts 83 - IPFW 87	3
Pacific 65 - San Francisco 73	0.733	Pacific 60 - San Francisco 81	13
Penn State 76 - Illinois 71	0.623	Penn State 71 - Illinois 67	1
Pepperdine 59 - Gonzaga 91	0.998	Pepperdine 49 - Gonzaga 96	15
Pittsburgh 79 - Clemson 78	0.517	Pittsburgh 60 - Clemson 67	8
Portland 71 - San Diego 69	0.532	Portland 52 - San Diego 68	18
Prairie View 78 - Alabama AM 59	0.932	Prairie View 70 - Alabama AM 65	14
Presbyterian 67 - Longwood 70	0.574	Presbyterian 71 - Longwood 62	-12
Rhode Island 80 - Saint Bonaventure 71	0.752	Rhode Island 71 - Saint Bonaventure 59	-3
Rice 83 - Charlotte 74	0.775	Rice 84 - Charlotte 67	-8
Richmond 79 - Duquesne 68	0.85	Richmond 101 - Duquesne 90	0
Rutgers 62 - Wisconsin 77	0.91	Rutgers 54 - Wisconsin 61	-8
Sacramento State 71 - Portland State 75	0.624	Sacramento State 80 - Portland State 77	-7
Saint Francis Penn 71 - Robert Morris 65	0.657	Saint Francis Penn 89 - Robert Morris 83	0
Saint Josephs 77 - La Salle 78	0.526	Saint Josephs 73 - La Salle 72	-2
Sam Houston State 73 - Southeast Louisiana 65	0.73	Sam Houston State 71 - Southeast Louisiana 69	6
San Diego State 73 - Colorado State 63	0.757	San Diego State 77 - Colorado State 78	11
San Jose State 73 - Nevada Las Vegas 71	0.562	San Jose State 76 - Nevada Las Vegas 72	-2
Santa Clara 61 - Saint Marys 73	0.787	Santa Clara 59 - Saint Marys 72	1
Seattle 76 - Texas Pan American 72	0.629	Seattle 96 - Texas Pan American 84	-8
South Alabama 69 - Georgia Southern 75	0.676	South Alabama 78 - Georgia Southern 66	-18
South Carolina Upstate 77 - Kennesaw St 66	0.851	South Carolina Upstate 79 - Kennesaw St 73	5
South Dakota 71 - Denver 67	0.628	South Dakota 88 - Denver 83	-1
Southern Illinois 73 - Missouri State 72	0.524	Southern Illinois 85 - Missouri State 84	0
Southern Utah 70 - Northern Colorado 74	0.641	Southern Utah 71 - Northern Colorado 89	14
Stephen F Austin 66 - New Orleans 67	0.522	Stephen F Austin 71 - New Orleans 61	-11
Stetson 73 - North Florida 75	0.567	Stetson 88 - North Florida 74	-16
Stony Brook 65 - Vermont 73	0.749	Stony Brook 64 - Vermont 71	-1
Syracuse 72 - Florida State 82	0.695	Syracuse 82 - Florida State 72	-20
Tennessee 75 - Kansas State 76	0.546	Tennessee 70 - Kansas State 58	-13
Tennessee State 67 - Belmont 71	0.661	Tennessee State 76 - Belmont 93	13
Tennessee Tech 73 - Eastern Kentucky 65	0.701	Tennessee Tech 66 - Eastern Kentucky 79	21
Texas AM CC 71 - Abilene Christian 64	0.683	Texas AM CC 72 - Abilene Christian 60	-5
Texas Christian 82 - Auburn 72	0.78	Texas Christian 80 - Auburn 88	18
Texas Southern 82 - Alabama State 57	0.995	Texas Southern 70 - Alabama State 68	23
Texas Tech 84 - Louisiana State 70	0.848	Texas Tech 77 - Louisiana State 64	1
Toledo 74 - Northern Illinois 69	0.639	Toledo 72 - Northern Illinois 74	7
Troy 72 - Georgia State 73	0.508	Troy 72 - Georgia State 78	5
Tulsa 72 - Central Florida 69	0.559	Tulsa 77 - Central Florida 66	-8
UC Davis 67 - UC Irvine 70	0.58	UC Davis 74 - UC Irvine 65	-12
UC Riverside 73 - Cal State Northridge 71	0.559	UC Riverside 59 - Cal State Northridge 63	6
UL Lafayette 77 - Arkansas Little Rock 67	0.8	UL Lafayette 88 - Arkansas Little Rock 82	4
UL Monroe 64 - Arkansas State 74	0.743	UL Monroe 63 - Arkansas State 73	0
UMass Lowell 87 - Unranked 62		UMass Lowell 97 - Unranked 73
UMBC 73 - New Hampshire 69	0.63	UMBC 105 - New Hampshire 103	2
UMKC 67 - Cal State Bakersfield 71	0.64	UMKC 63 - Cal State Bakersfield 74	7
UNC Asheville 77 - Radford 61	0.882	UNC Asheville 80 - Radford 69	5
UNC Greensboro 71 - Furman 66	0.651	UNC Greensboro 67 - Furman 73	11
Utah 85 - Oregon State 56	0.977	Utah 86 - Oregon State 78	21
Utah State 72 - Fresno State 74	0.58	Utah State 78 - Fresno State 65	-15
Utah Valley 69 - New Mexico State 79	0.827	Utah Valley 69 - New Mexico State 74	-5
Vanderbilt 74 - Iowa State 77	0.575	Vanderbilt 84 - Iowa State 78	-9
Virginia Military Institute 67 - Samford 80	0.907	Virginia Military Institute 67 - Samford 69	-11
Wagner 72 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 57	0.932	Wagner 66 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 64	13
Wake Forest 79 - Duke 81	0.555	Wake Forest 83 - Duke 85	0
West Virginia 83 - Texas AM 67	0.858	West Virginia 81 - Texas AM 77	12
Western Carolina 66 - Wofford 73	0.727	Western Carolina 68 - Wofford 62	-13
Western Illinois 71 - IUPUI 75	0.61	Western Illinois 78 - IUPUI 69	-13
Western Kentucky 71 - Texas San Antonio 63	0.693	Western Kentucky 81 - Texas San Antonio 66	-7
William and Mary 72 - UNC Wilmington 83	0.841	William and Mary 96 - UNC Wilmington 78	-29
Winthrop 78 - High Point 62	0.922	Winthrop 80 - High Point 83	19
Wyoming 77 - Boise State 76	0.522	Wyoming 65 - Boise State 80	16
Youngstown State 71 - Cleveland State 72	0.519	Youngstown State 67 - Cleveland State 64	-4

GAMES OF 1-29

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
American 69 - Colgate 65	0.641	American 65 - Colgate 70	9
Arizona 88 - Washington 64	0.978	Arizona 77 - Washington 66	13
Arizona State 83 - Washington State 73	0.733	Arizona State 83 - Washington State 91	18
Bradley 65 - Wichita State 82	0.897	Bradley 49 - Wichita State 64	-2
California 74 - Stanford 65	0.784	California 66 - Stanford 55	-2
Cincinnati 87 - South Florida 56	0.992	Cincinnati 94 - South Florida 53	-10
Detroit 74 - Green Bay 78	0.639	Detroit 93 - Green Bay 92	-5
Evansville 61 - Illinois State 73	0.836	Evansville 59 - Illinois State 69	-2
Illinois Chicago 72 - Wright State 71	0.514	Illinois Chicago 86 - Wright State 88	3
Iona 71 - Saint Peters 65	0.647	Iona 69 - Saint Peters 66	3
Louisville 86 - NC State 67	0.896	Louisville 85 - NC State 60	-6
Maine 68 - Binghamton 69	0.537	Maine 54 - Binghamton 65	10
Michigan State 75 - Michigan 71	0.603	Michigan State 70 - Michigan 62	-4
Nebraska 70 - Purdue 81	0.79	Nebraska 83 - Purdue 80	-14
Northwestern 78 - Indiana 73	0.638	Northwestern 68 - Indiana 55	-8
Oakland 77 - Milwaukee 60	0.859	Oakland 79 - Milwaukee 70	8
Saint Johns 73 - Xavier 82	0.714	Saint Johns 77 - Xavier 82	-4
Valparaiso 78 - Northern Kentucky 64	0.876	Valparaiso 65 - Northern Kentucky 58	7
Villanova 74 - Virginia 66	0.723	Villanova 61 - Virginia 59	6
Virginia Tech 85 - Boston College 69	0.835	Virginia Tech 85 - Boston College 79	10

Number of DI Games: 334
Number Correct: 218 = 65.2%
Expected Number Correct: 241.606 = 72.3%
Average Error: 9.38
Average Signed Error: 1.31

WEEK 13 -- 1-30 to 2-5

GAMES OF 1-30

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Appalachian State 68 - Texas State 69	0.5	Appalachian State 55 - Texas State 68	12
Belmont 84 - SIU Edwardsville 56	0.996	Belmont 92 - SIU Edwardsville 69	5
Canisius 79 - Rider 68	0.804	Canisius 66 - Rider 72	17
Coastal Carolina 69 - Texas Arlington 77	0.681	Coastal Carolina 72 - Texas Arlington 70	-10
Delaware State 58 - North Carolina Central 76	0.869	Delaware State 74 - North Carolina Central 82	-10
Florida Gulf Coast 80 - North Florida 62	0.914	Florida Gulf Coast 74 - North Florida 59	3
Grambling State 75 - Mississippi Valley State 71	0.619	Grambling State 77 - Mississippi Valley State 74	1
Hampton 71 - Coppin State 63	0.726	Hampton 77 - Coppin State 65	-4
Howard 70 - South Carolina State 67	0.56	Howard 68 - South Carolina State 77	12
Jackson State 68 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 60	0.74	Jackson State 74 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 59	-7
Lehigh 79 - Boston 69	0.747	Lehigh 59 - Boston 76	27
Marist 64 - Monmouth 81	0.889	Marist 71 - Monmouth 83	-5
Maryland Eastern Shore 80 - Savannah State 76	0.652	Maryland Eastern Shore 82 - Savannah State 87	9
Mercer 74 - Western Carolina 57	0.876	Mercer 62 - Western Carolina 47	2
Morgan State 74 - Florida AM 62	0.797	Morgan State 77 - Florida AM 60	-5
New Mexico State 91 - Unranked 52		New Mexico State 98 - Unranked 75
NJ Tech 72 - Kennesaw St 68	0.661	NJ Tech 53 - Kennesaw St 54	5
Norfolk State 75 - North Carolina AT 58	0.914	Norfolk State 83 - North Carolina AT 69	3
Notre Dame 79 - Duke 76	0.556	Notre Dame 74 - Duke 84	13
Oklahoma 80 - Oklahoma State 86	0.647	Oklahoma 66 - Oklahoma State 68	-4
Prairie View 72 - Alabama State 63	0.795	Prairie View 72 - Alabama State 52	-11
Quinnipiac 72 - Siena 71	0.538	Quinnipiac 75 - Siena 84	10
South Alabama 68 - Georgia State 72	0.611	South Alabama 80 - Georgia State 83	-1
South Carolina Upstate 75 - Lipscomb 73	0.579	South Carolina Upstate 80 - Lipscomb 92	14
Stetson 74 - Jacksonville 73	0.534	Stetson 86 - Jacksonville 89	4
Texas Southern 83 - Alabama AM 56	0.98	Texas Southern 92 - Alabama AM 47	-18
Troy 75 - Georgia Southern 74	0.524	Troy 83 - Georgia Southern 76	-6
UL Lafayette 75 - Arkansas State 73	0.539	UL Lafayette 69 - Arkansas State 88	21
UL Monroe 66 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	0.572	UL Monroe 68 - Arkansas Little Rock 52	-18
William and Mary 83 - Drexel 71	0.813	William and Mary 108 - Drexel 85	-11

GAMES OF 1-31

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Auburn 79 - Tennessee 80	0.521	Auburn 77 - Tennessee 87	9
Ball State 77 - Toledo 73	0.608	Ball State 81 - Toledo 80	3
Boston College 76 - Wake Forest 83	0.69	Boston College 80 - Wake Forest 85	-2
Bowling Green 72 - Miami OH 67	0.67	Bowling Green 83 - Miami OH 72	-6
Buffalo 79 - Central Michigan 76	0.568	Buffalo 101 - Central Michigan 91	-7
Butler 80 - Creighton 75	0.652	Butler 67 - Creighton 76	14
Colorado State 73 - Boise State 71	0.548	Colorado State 76 - Boise State 79	5
DePaul 71 - Georgetown 80	0.71	DePaul 73 - Georgetown 76	-6
Eastern Michigan 76 - Kent State 68	0.683	Eastern Michigan 64 - Kent State 70	14
Fairfield 75 - Manhattan 69	0.671	Fairfield 78 - Manhattan 49	-23
Fordham 62 - Dayton 76	0.853	Fordham 66 - Dayton 75	-5
Grand Canyon 88 - Unranked 55		Grand Canyon 95 - Unranked 66
Illinois 69 - Wisconsin 77	0.728	Illinois 43 - Wisconsin 57	6
Iowa State 77 - West Virginia 80	0.566	Iowa State 72 - West Virginia 85	10
Kentucky 87 - Georgia 70	0.905	Kentucky 90 - Georgia 81	8
Liberty 76 - Presbyterian 52	0.968	Liberty 71 - Presbyterian 51	4
Mississippi 78 - Mississippi State 74	0.611	Mississippi 88 - Mississippi State 61	-23
Missouri State 75 - Loyola Ill 74	0.502	Missouri State 82 - Loyola Ill 81	0
North Carolina 90 - Pittsburgh 71	0.835	North Carolina 80 - Pittsburgh 78	17
Northern Illinois 66 - Akron 72	0.722	Northern Illinois 73 - Akron 76	-3
Ohio State 73 - Maryland 76	0.594	Ohio State 71 - Maryland 77	3
Oral Roberts 73 - Denver 74	0.517	Oral Roberts 69 - Denver 93	23
Rhode Island 79 - George Washington 66	0.826	Rhode Island 82 - George Washington 70	1
Rutgers 74 - Iowa 75	0.529	Rutgers 63 - Iowa 83	19
Saint Josephs 74 - Davidson 73	0.513	Saint Josephs 60 - Davidson 75	16
San Diego State 76 - Wyoming 68	0.739	San Diego State 77 - Wyoming 68	-1
Texas AM 75 - Vanderbilt 72	0.595	Texas AM 54 - Vanderbilt 68	17
Tulane 71 - Temple 81	0.79	Tulane 71 - Temple 79	-2
UMKC 87 - Unranked 59		UMKC 93 - Unranked 67
Western Michigan 68 - Ohio 74	0.676	Western Michigan 90 - Ohio 85	-11

GAMES OF 2-1

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 63 - New Orleans 70	0.733	Abilene Christian 70 - New Orleans 69	-8
Albany 79 - UMass Lowell 65	0.889	Albany 90 - UMass Lowell 77	1
Arkansas 76 - Alabama 71	0.661	Arkansas 87 - Alabama 68	-14
Army 81 - Lafayette 67	0.859	Army 80 - Lafayette 73	7
Bethune Cookman 72 - Stetson 76	0.627	Bethune Cookman 67 - Stetson 76	5
Binghamton 70 - UMBC 74	0.62	Binghamton 74 - UMBC 92	14
Bucknell 80 - American 57	0.989	Bucknell 80 - American 60	3
Cal State Northridge 80 - Long Beach State 76	0.635	Cal State Northridge 108 - Long Beach State 98	-6
Campbell 69 - Gardner Webb 70	0.526	Campbell 68 - Gardner Webb 80	11
Clemson 77 - Georgia Tech 69	0.667	Clemson 74 - Georgia Tech 62	-4
Delaware State 71 - North Carolina AT 64	0.672	Delaware State 82 - North Carolina AT 65	-10
Drake 68 - Wichita State 86	0.899	Drake 69 - Wichita State 77	-10
Duquesne 72 - Saint Bonaventure 78	0.717	Duquesne 64 - Saint Bonaventure 71	1
Eastern Kentucky 76 - Austin Peay 70	0.668	Eastern Kentucky 81 - Austin Peay 83	8
Fresno State 79 - Air Force 69	0.76	Fresno State 73 - Air Force 64	1
Hampton 70 - Maryland Eastern Shore 69	0.517	Hampton 66 - Maryland Eastern Shore 65	0
Holy Cross 70 - Colgate 61	0.821	Holy Cross 56 - Colgate 50	3
Houston 74 - Central Florida 66	0.694	Houston 82 - Central Florida 64	-10
Illinois State 76 - Northern Iowa 59	0.902	Illinois State 57 - Northern Iowa 51	11
Indiana 80 - Penn State 72	0.709	Indiana 110 - Penn State 102	0
Indiana State 72 - Evansville 70	0.567	Indiana State 85 - Evansville 84	1
IUPUI 69 - North Dakota State 74	0.645	IUPUI 86 - North Dakota State 81	-10
Jacksonville State 72 - SE Missouri State 66	0.68	Jacksonville State 74 - SE Missouri State 62	-6
Kansas 78 - Baylor 73	0.686	Kansas 73 - Baylor 68	0
Kansas State 77 - Texas Christian 71	0.743	Kansas State 80 - Texas Christian 86	12
La Salle 81 - Massachusetts 74	0.706	La Salle 88 - Massachusetts 78	-3
Longwood 65 - High Point 75	0.769	Longwood 68 - High Point 92	14
Louisiana State 69 - South Carolina 83	0.829	Louisiana State 63 - South Carolina 88	11
Loyola MD 69 - Lehigh 74	0.648	Loyola MD 62 - Lehigh 60	-7
Miami 75 - Florida State 76	0.526	Miami 57 - Florida State 75	17
NC State 79 - Syracuse 78	0.505	NC State 93 - Syracuse 100	8
Nevada Las Vegas 71 - New Mexico 75	0.617	Nevada Las Vegas 77 - New Mexico 80	-1
Omaha 75 - South Dakota 74	0.503	Omaha 91 - South Dakota 83	-7
Providence 68 - Villanova 79	0.791	Providence 57 - Villanova 66	-2
Purdue 79 - Northwestern 72	0.683	Purdue 80 - Northwestern 59	-14
Radford 66 - Winthrop 74	0.74	Radford 65 - Winthrop 81	8
Saint Johns 79 - Marquette 85	0.649	Saint Johns 86 - Marquette 72	-20
Saint Louis 66 - George Mason 75	0.722	Saint Louis 76 - George Mason 74	-11
South Dakota State 75 - Western Illinois 67	0.727	South Dakota State 98 - Western Illinois 65	-25
Southeast Louisiana 75 - Nicholls State 66	0.707	Southeast Louisiana 72 - Nicholls State 44	-19
Southern Illinois 75 - Bradley 66	0.761	Southern Illinois 85 - Bradley 65	-11
Southern Methodist 79 - East Carolina 56	0.968	Southern Methodist 86 - East Carolina 46	-17
Stony Brook 71 - New Hampshire 68	0.597	Stony Brook 64 - New Hampshire 61	0
Tennessee Tech 71 - Tennessee Martin 72	0.544	Tennessee Tech 46 - Tennessee Martin 75	28
Texas 71 - Texas Tech 72	0.523	Texas 62 - Texas Tech 58	-5
Texas AM CC 73 - Houston Baptist 68	0.637	Texas AM CC 90 - Houston Baptist 79	-6
Tulsa 69 - Cincinnati 79	0.774	Tulsa 55 - Cincinnati 57	-8
UNC Asheville 82 - Charleston Southern 62	0.983	UNC Asheville 91 - Charleston Southern 73	2
Utah State 70 - Nevada 79	0.757	Utah State 74 - Nevada 57	-26
Vermont 84 - Maine 53	0.998	Vermont 74 - Maine 53	10
Virginia 80 - Virginia Tech 66	0.848	Virginia 71 - Virginia Tech 48	-9
Virginia Commonwealth 80 - Richmond 69	0.785	Virginia Commonwealth 81 - Richmond 74	4
Washington 75 - Southern California 82	0.711	Washington 74 - Southern California 82	1
Washington State 73 - UCLA 88	0.849	Washington State 79 - UCLA 95	1
Xavier 81 - Seton Hall 71	0.782	Xavier 72 - Seton Hall 70	8

GAMES OF 2-2

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Boston 70 - Navy 69	0.553	Boston 61 - Navy 70	10
Brigham Young 71 - Gonzaga 84	0.826	Brigham Young 75 - Gonzaga 85	-3
Cal Poly 65 - UC Davis 73	0.711	Cal Poly 74 - UC Davis 70	-12
California 73 - Utah 70	0.59	California 77 - Utah 75	1
Central Arkansas 75 - Northwestern State 74	0.535	Central Arkansas 107 - Northwestern State 97	-9
Central Connecticut State 62 - Wagner 68	0.683	Central Connecticut State 60 - Wagner 70	4
Charlotte 80 - Florida Atlantic 70	0.77	Charlotte 75 - Florida Atlantic 77	12
Chattanooga 74 - UNC Greensboro 66	0.708	Chattanooga 91 - UNC Greensboro 68	-15
Cleveland State 75 - Detroit 68	0.711	Cleveland State 90 - Detroit 73	-10
Eastern Washington 79 - Sacramento State 64	0.914	Eastern Washington 77 - Sacramento State 72	10
Elon 75 - James Madison 61	0.867	Elon 67 - James Madison 61	8
Fairfield 75 - Niagara 70	0.653	Fairfield 81 - Niagara 61	-15
Fairleigh Dickinson 80 - Sacred Heart 68	0.823	Fairleigh Dickinson 70 - Sacred Heart 74	16
Florida 88 - Missouri 60	0.991	Florida 93 - Missouri 54	-11
Green Bay 78 - Illinois Chicago 71	0.728	Green Bay 84 - Illinois Chicago 80	3
Hofstra 77 - Delaware 66	0.749	Hofstra 73 - Delaware 65	3
Idaho 73 - Portland State 69	0.601	Idaho 89 - Portland State 72	-13
Idaho State 71 - Northern Arizona 67	0.599	Idaho State 91 - Northern Arizona 90	3
Incarnate Word 76 - Mcneese State 69	0.704	Incarnate Word 79 - Mcneese State 87	15
LIU Brooklyn 69 - Robert Morris 62	0.727	LIU Brooklyn 63 - Robert Morris 67	11
Louisiana Tech 78 - Western Kentucky 63	0.869	Louisiana Tech 76 - Western Kentucky 67	6
Mercer 66 - Furman 68	0.544	Mercer 68 - Furman 70	0
Milwaukee 61 - Valparaiso 75	0.86	Milwaukee 53 - Valparaiso 71	4
Mt St Marys 75 - Bryant 65	0.85	Mt St Marys 77 - Bryant 70	3
Murray State 69 - Belmont 77	0.744	Murray State 69 - Belmont 81	4
Nebraska 74 - Michigan State 75	0.515	Nebraska 61 - Michigan State 72	10
Old Dominion 75 - Florida International 57	0.918	Old Dominion 64 - Florida International 57	11
Oregon 89 - Arizona State 67	0.929	Oregon 71 - Arizona State 70	21
Oregon State 57 - Arizona 83	0.981	Oregon State 54 - Arizona 71	-9
Pacific 57 - Saint Marys 78	0.951	Pacific 70 - Saint Marys 74	-17
Portland 67 - Santa Clara 72	0.634	Portland 45 - Santa Clara 60	10
Saint Francis Brooklyn 66 - Saint Francis Penn 73	0.7	Saint Francis Brooklyn 61 - Saint Francis Penn 78	10
Sam Houston State 71 - Stephen F Austin 63	0.715	Sam Houston State 72 - Stephen F Austin 63	-1
Samford 77 - Western Carolina 60	0.899	Samford 82 - Western Carolina 63	-2
San Diego 72 - Loyola Marymount 69	0.632	San Diego 53 - Loyola Marymount 72	22
San Francisco 83 - Pepperdine 63	0.943	San Francisco 77 - Pepperdine 56	-1
South Florida 67 - Memphis 81	0.871	South Florida 75 - Memphis 85	-4
Southern Miss 70 - Marshall 82	0.757	Southern Miss 91 - Marshall 76	-27
Stanford 75 - Colorado 72	0.589	Stanford 74 - Colorado 81	10
Tennessee State 74 - Eastern Illinois 64	0.805	Tennessee State 67 - Eastern Illinois 77	20
Texas El Paso 65 - Alabama Birmingham 74	0.701	Texas El Paso 63 - Alabama Birmingham 59	-13
Texas San Antonio 56 - Middle Tennessee 76	0.916	Texas San Antonio 59 - Middle Tennessee 69	-10
The Citadel 78 - Wofford 85	0.663	The Citadel 90 - Wofford 100	3
Towson 81 - Drexel 67	0.87	Towson 104 - Drexel 103	13
UC Riverside 68 - Hawaii 66	0.563	UC Riverside 63 - Hawaii 72	11
UC Santa Barbara 71 - Cal State Fullerton 70	0.523	UC Santa Barbara 53 - Cal State Fullerton 79	27
UNC Wilmington 76 - College of Charleston 68	0.746	UNC Wilmington 66 - College of Charleston 67	9
Virginia Military Institute 64 - East Tennessee State 82	0.898	Virginia Military Institute 71 - East Tennessee State 81	-8
Weber State 86 - Southern Utah 62	0.977	Weber State 90 - Southern Utah 74	8
William and Mary 75 - Northeastern 72	0.566	William and Mary 94 - Northeastern 69	-22
Youngstown State 70 - Oakland 79	0.724	Youngstown State 76 - Oakland 90	5

GAMES OF 2-3

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Ball State 76 - Buffalo 70	0.663	Ball State 69 - Buffalo 96	33
Central Michigan 83 - Western Michigan 74	0.752	Central Michigan 86 - Western Michigan 82	5
Columbia 71 - Yale 73	0.612	Columbia 78 - Yale 87	7
Cornell 76 - Brown 73	0.589	Cornell 70 - Brown 81	14
Dartmouth 60 - Princeton 77	0.947	Dartmouth 64 - Princeton 69	-12
Davidson 73 - Rhode Island 74	0.514	Davidson 59 - Rhode Island 70	10
Harvard 73 - Pennsylvania 66	0.761	Harvard 69 - Pennsylvania 59	-3
Monmouth 74 - Saint Peters 62	0.793	Monmouth 71 - Saint Peters 70	11
Rider 70 - Iona 75	0.652	Rider 76 - Iona 95	14

GAMES OF 2-4

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 63 - Sam Houston State 72	0.763	Abilene Christian 71 - Sam Houston State 64	-16
Air Force 75 - Wyoming 76	0.52	Air Force 74 - Wyoming 83	8
Alabama 78 - Auburn 72	0.669	Alabama 77 - Auburn 82	11
Alabama AM 69 - Mississippi Valley State 73	0.623	Alabama AM 66 - Mississippi Valley State 68	-2
Alabama State 67 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 62	0.646	Alabama State 77 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65	-7
Albany 71 - Stony Brook 65	0.677	Albany 65 - Stony Brook 72	13
Alcorn State 69 - Jackson State 62	0.722	Alcorn State 69 - Jackson State 58	-4
American 64 - Lehigh 76	0.808	American 55 - Lehigh 70	3
Arkansas Little Rock 71 - Coastal Carolina 67	0.622	Arkansas Little Rock 75 - Coastal Carolina 82	11
Arkansas State 81 - Appalachian State 64	0.878	Arkansas State 79 - Appalachian State 78	16
Austin Peay 69 - Tennessee State 76	0.702	Austin Peay 66 - Tennessee State 70	-3
Baylor 78 - Kansas State 66	0.876	Baylor 54 - Kansas State 56	14
Bethune Cookman 72 - Delaware State 68	0.601	Bethune Cookman 82 - Delaware State 88	10
Boise State 78 - Utah State 67	0.814	Boise State 72 - Utah State 70	9
Boston College 66 - Louisville 85	0.869	Boston College 67 - Louisville 90	4
Bowling Green 71 - Toledo 74	0.591	Bowling Green 104 - Toledo 100	-7
Bradley 75 - Drake 72	0.572	Bradley 79 - Drake 72	-4
Brigham Young 85 - Portland 65	0.907	Brigham Young 73 - Portland 62	9
Cal Poly 68 - UC Riverside 67	0.509	Cal Poly 56 - UC Riverside 67	12
Cal State Northridge 76 - Hawaii 70	0.671	Cal State Northridge 72 - Hawaii 76	10
Central Arkansas 70 - Southeast Louisiana 72	0.559	Central Arkansas 68 - Southeast Louisiana 66	-4
Central Florida 73 - Memphis 71	0.548	Central Florida 72 - Memphis 57	-13
Charleston Southern 76 - Presbyterian 62	0.923	Charleston Southern 71 - Presbyterian 65	8
Charlotte 80 - Florida International 69	0.801	Charlotte 95 - Florida International 80	-4
Chattanooga 78 - Western Carolina 56	0.912	Chattanooga 77 - Western Carolina 65	10
Cincinnati 81 - Connecticut 62	0.939	Cincinnati 82 - Connecticut 68	5
Cleveland State 65 - Oakland 72	0.675	Cleveland State 51 - Oakland 53	-5
Colgate 65 - Navy 70	0.663	Colgate 55 - Navy 52	-8
College of Charleston 73 - Elon 65	0.749	College of Charleston 71 - Elon 58	-5
Columbia 78 - Brown 71	0.737	Columbia 83 - Brown 78	2
Creighton 81 - Xavier 76	0.658	Creighton 80 - Xavier 82	7
Dartmouth 64 - Pennsylvania 73	0.793	Dartmouth 74 - Pennsylvania 71	-12
Dayton 84 - Duquesne 61	0.99	Dayton 90 - Duquesne 53	-14
Denver 74 - IPFW 73	0.549	Denver 76 - IPFW 73	-2
DePaul 73 - Marquette 84	0.8	DePaul 79 - Marquette 92	2
Duke 86 - Pittsburgh 71	0.794	Duke 72 - Pittsburgh 64	7
East Carolina 76 - Tulane 66	0.827	East Carolina 74 - Tulane 65	1
Eastern Illinois 72 - Tennessee Tech 67	0.661	Eastern Illinois 68 - Tennessee Tech 87	24
Eastern Washington 78 - Portland State 69	0.728	Eastern Washington 130 - Portland State 124	3
Evansville 70 - Missouri State 71	0.522	Evansville 74 - Missouri State 66	-9
Fairleigh Dickinson 73 - Wagner 65	0.726	Fairleigh Dickinson 59 - Wagner 68	17
Florida 81 - Kentucky 80	0.504	Florida 88 - Kentucky 66	-21
Florida AM 69 - Howard 68	0.525	Florida AM 71 - Howard 62	-8
Fresno State 71 - San Diego State 69	0.549	Fresno State 67 - San Diego State 70	5
Gardner Webb 81 - Longwood 62	0.945	Gardner Webb 90 - Longwood 64	-7
George Mason 80 - La Salle 78	0.554	George Mason 95 - La Salle 75	-18
Georgetown 79 - Seton Hall 73	0.639	Georgetown 66 - Seton Hall 68	8
Georgia Southern 78 - UL Monroe 62	0.887	Georgia Southern 76 - UL Monroe 62	2
Georgia State 77 - UL Lafayette 72	0.626	Georgia State 85 - UL Lafayette 82	2
Gonzaga 85 - Santa Clara 58	0.978	Gonzaga 90 - Santa Clara 55	-8
Grand Canyon 68 - Cal State Bakersfield 66	0.537	Grand Canyon 62 - Cal State Bakersfield 65	5
Green Bay 70 - Valparaiso 76	0.688	Green Bay 86 - Valparaiso 69	-23
Hartford 58 - Vermont 79	0.964	Hartford 66 - Vermont 79	-8
Harvard 69 - Princeton 70	0.529	Harvard 56 - Princeton 57	0
High Point 67 - UNC Asheville 73	0.685	High Point 71 - UNC Asheville 74	-3
Hofstra 81 - Drexel 73	0.723	Hofstra 79 - Drexel 77	6
Houston Baptist 77 - Incarnate Word 71	0.683	Houston Baptist 84 - Incarnate Word 70	-8
Idaho 74 - Sacramento State 64	0.829	Idaho 81 - Sacramento State 67	-4
Idaho State 77 - Southern Utah 70	0.72	Idaho State 94 - Southern Utah 68	-19
Illinois 73 - Minnesota 74	0.507	Illinois 59 - Minnesota 68	8
Jacksonville 65 - Florida Gulf Coast 76	0.822	Jacksonville 57 - Florida Gulf Coast 67	-1
James Madison 64 - Northeastern 70	0.658	James Madison 73 - Northeastern 69	-10
Kansas 84 - Iowa State 73	0.825	Kansas 89 - Iowa State 92	14
Kennesaw St 70 - South Carolina Upstate 72	0.577	Kennesaw St 84 - South Carolina Upstate 79	-7
Lamar 75 - Mcneese State 64	0.76	Lamar 77 - Mcneese State 57	-9
Liberty 70 - Radford 60	0.77	Liberty 57 - Radford 54	7
Lipscomb 79 - NJ Tech 67	0.842	Lipscomb 87 - NJ Tech 63	-12
LIU Brooklyn 72 - Saint Francis Penn 68	0.616	LIU Brooklyn 78 - Saint Francis Penn 80	6
Long Beach State 73 - UC Irvine 75	0.56	Long Beach State 72 - UC Irvine 63	-11
Louisiana State 74 - Texas AM 79	0.645	Louisiana State 73 - Texas AM 85	7
Louisiana Tech 82 - Marshall 74	0.686	Louisiana Tech 94 - Marshall 90	4
Loyola Ill 79 - Southern Illinois 68	0.828	Loyola Ill 61 - Southern Illinois 67	17
Loyola MD 74 - Army 69	0.689	Loyola MD 78 - Army 63	-10
Maine 67 - UMBC 79	0.849	Maine 71 - UMBC 83	0
Manhattan 75 - Marist 66	0.756	Manhattan 68 - Marist 67	8
Maryland 77 - Purdue 76	0.528	Maryland 72 - Purdue 73	2
Maryland Eastern Shore 75 - Coppin State 64	0.807	Maryland Eastern Shore 78 - Coppin State 57	-10
Mercer 73 - Wofford 68	0.649	Mercer 62 - Wofford 65	8
Miami OH 70 - Kent State 73	0.595	Miami OH 62 - Kent State 66	1
Michigan 78 - Ohio State 70	0.684	Michigan 66 - Ohio State 70	12
Milwaukee 70 - Illinois Chicago 69	0.531	Milwaukee 100 - Illinois Chicago 105	6
Mississippi State 75 - Tennessee 77	0.544	Mississippi State 64 - Tennessee 59	-7
Missouri 70 - Arkansas 82	0.84	Missouri 83 - Arkansas 78	-17
Montana 75 - Montana State 69	0.7	Montana 90 - Montana State 84	0
Morgan State 61 - North Carolina Central 71	0.753	Morgan State 62 - North Carolina Central 68	-4
Mt St Marys 76 - Central Connecticut State 57	0.953	Mt St Marys 52 - Central Connecticut State 54	21
NC State 75 - Miami 76	0.543	NC State 79 - Miami 84	4
Nevada Las Vegas 70 - Colorado State 73	0.568	Nevada Las Vegas 49 - Colorado State 69	17
New Mexico 80 - San Jose State 67	0.851	New Mexico 68 - San Jose State 78	23
New Mexico State 83 - Chicago State 55	0.98	New Mexico State 86 - Chicago State 51	-7
New Orleans 78 - Nicholls State 64	0.845	New Orleans 78 - Nicholls State 69	5
North Dakota 75 - Northern Colorado 65	0.729	North Dakota 87 - Northern Colorado 77	0
North Dakota State 72 - South Dakota 65	0.688	North Dakota State 66 - South Dakota 76	17
North Florida 78 - Stetson 70	0.708	North Florida 96 - Stetson 64	-24
North Texas 69 - Rice 78	0.777	North Texas 80 - Rice 95	6
Northern Illinois 67 - Eastern Michigan 68	0.515	Northern Illinois 81 - Eastern Michigan 69	-13
Northern Iowa 75 - Indiana State 67	0.732	Northern Iowa 65 - Indiana State 60	3
Northwestern State 68 - Stephen F Austin 70	0.542	Northwestern State 73 - Stephen F Austin 75	0
Ohio 71 - Akron 70	0.51	Ohio 85 - Akron 70	-14
Old Dominion 75 - Florida Atlantic 59	0.908	Old Dominion 61 - Florida Atlantic 65	20
Oregon 74 - Arizona 71	0.601	Oregon 85 - Arizona 58	-24
Oregon State 72 - Arizona State 80	0.719	Oregon State 68 - Arizona State 81	5
Penn State 76 - Rutgers 66	0.796	Penn State 68 - Rutgers 70	12
Pepperdine 72 - Pacific 71	0.53	Pepperdine 82 - Pacific 72	-9
Quinnipiac 77 - Niagara 71	0.678	Quinnipiac 89 - Niagara 81	-2
Richmond 77 - George Washington 70	0.735	Richmond 84 - George Washington 75	-2
Sacred Heart 73 - Bryant 74	0.508	Sacred Heart 73 - Bryant 70	-4
Saint Bonaventure 73 - Virginia Commonwealth 76	0.596	Saint Bonaventure 77 - Virginia Commonwealth 83	3
Saint Francis Brooklyn 63 - Robert Morris 66	0.639	Saint Francis Brooklyn 54 - Robert Morris 78	21
Saint Josephs 75 - Fordham 64	0.772	Saint Josephs 83 - Fordham 86	14
Saint Louis 76 - North Carolina AT 56	0.933	Saint Louis 78 - North Carolina AT 59	1
Samford 73 - UNC Greensboro 70	0.603	Samford 75 - UNC Greensboro 81	9
San Diego 60 - Saint Marys 75	0.894	San Diego 27 - Saint Marys 71	29
San Francisco 78 - Loyola Marymount 66	0.84	San Francisco 74 - Loyola Marymount 64	2
Savannah State 79 - Hampton 72	0.701	Savannah State 89 - Hampton 92	10
SE Missouri State 74 - Morehead State 73	0.52	SE Missouri State 81 - Morehead State 89	9
Seattle 74 - Utah Valley 73	0.506	Seattle 63 - Utah Valley 50	-12
Siena 73 - Canisius 72	0.526	Siena 73 - Canisius 80	8
SIU Edwardsville 63 - Jacksonville State 71	0.748	SIU Edwardsville 61 - Jacksonville State 72	3
South Carolina 77 - Georgia 66	0.786	South Carolina 77 - Georgia 75	9
South Carolina State 68 - Norfolk State 69	0.516	South Carolina State 62 - Norfolk State 65	2
South Dakota State 76 - Oral Roberts 74	0.565	South Dakota State 74 - Oral Roberts 67	-5
Southern 74 - Grambling State 66	0.745	Southern 67 - Grambling State 66	7
Southern Miss 66 - Western Kentucky 71	0.636	Southern Miss 47 - Western Kentucky 64	12
Stanford 71 - Utah 75	0.603	Stanford 81 - Utah 75	-10
Syracuse 67 - Virginia 75	0.662	Syracuse 66 - Virginia 62	-12
Tennessee Martin 76 - Eastern Kentucky 66	0.762	Tennessee Martin 85 - Eastern Kentucky 68	-7
Texas Arlington 78 - Texas State 62	0.847	Texas Arlington 76 - Texas State 61	1
Texas Christian 78 - Texas 69	0.757	Texas Christian 78 - Texas 63	-6
Texas El Paso 59 - Middle Tennessee 76	0.885	Texas El Paso 57 - Middle Tennessee 54	-20
Texas Pan American 75 - UMKC 76	0.512	Texas Pan American 60 - UMKC 73	12
Texas San Antonio 63 - Alabama Birmingham 74	0.752	Texas San Antonio 82 - Alabama Birmingham 67	-26
Texas Southern 79 - Prairie View 65	0.865	Texas Southern 74 - Prairie View 61	1
Texas Tech 81 - Oklahoma 71	0.785	Texas Tech 77 - Oklahoma 69	2
The Citadel 71 - Furman 84	0.781	The Citadel 91 - Furman 99	-5
Towson 76 - William and Mary 71	0.64	Towson 82 - William and Mary 80	3
Troy 76 - South Alabama 68	0.73	Troy 71 - South Alabama 76	13
Tulsa 69 - Southern Methodist 76	0.699	Tulsa 53 - Southern Methodist 76	16
UC Santa Barbara 63 - UC Davis 72	0.751	UC Santa Barbara 64 - UC Davis 67	-6
UMass Lowell 73 - Binghamton 70	0.604	UMass Lowell 60 - Binghamton 59	2
UNC Wilmington 85 - Delaware 60	0.95	UNC Wilmington 108 - Delaware 80	-3
Vanderbilt 80 - Mississippi 74	0.687	Vanderbilt 74 - Mississippi 81	13
Villanova 89 - Saint Johns 66	0.928	Villanova 92 - Saint Johns 79	10
Wake Forest 79 - Georgia Tech 73	0.65	Wake Forest 81 - Georgia Tech 69	-6
Washington 77 - UCLA 90	0.858	Washington 66 - UCLA 107	28
Washington State 71 - Southern California 79	0.724	Washington State 77 - Southern California 86	1
Weber State 80 - Northern Arizona 59	0.93	Weber State 86 - Northern Arizona 80	15
West Virginia 88 - Oklahoma State 78	0.728	West Virginia 75 - Oklahoma State 82	17
Western Illinois 72 - Omaha 75	0.587	Western Illinois 67 - Omaha 79	9
Wichita State 76 - Illinois State 69	0.721	Wichita State 86 - Illinois State 45	-34
Winthrop 79 - Campbell 62	0.912	Winthrop 76 - Campbell 62	3
Wright State 72 - Northern Kentucky 68	0.614	Wright State 79 - Northern Kentucky 83	8
Youngstown State 80 - Detroit 75	0.637	Youngstown State 80 - Detroit 90	15

GAMES OF 2-5

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Boston 82 - Lafayette 63	0.918	Boston 75 - Lafayette 58	2
California 77 - Colorado 67	0.809	California 77 - Colorado 66	-1
Cornell 69 - Yale 76	0.778	Cornell 71 - Yale 78	0
Florida State 83 - Clemson 74	0.712	Florida State 109 - Clemson 61	-39
Iowa 80 - Nebraska 76	0.61	Iowa 81 - Nebraska 70	-7
North Carolina 84 - Notre Dame 75	0.714	North Carolina 83 - Notre Dame 76	2
Temple 83 - South Florida 64	0.922	Temple 83 - South Florida 74	10
Wisconsin 81 - Indiana 68	0.815	Wisconsin 65 - Indiana 60	8

Number of DI Games: 333
Number Correct: 236 = 70.8%
Expected Number Correct: 238.488 = 71.6%
Average Error: 9.15
Average Signed Error: 1.18

WEEK 14 -- 2-6 to 2-12

GAMES OF 2-6

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 63 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 66	0.58	Alabama AM 49 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65	13
Alabama State 72 - Mississippi Valley State 68	0.622	Alabama State 71 - Mississippi Valley State 66	-1
Alcorn State 74 - Grambling State 62	0.822	Alcorn State 75 - Grambling State 65	2
Arkansas Little Rock 74 - Appalachian State 68	0.687	Arkansas Little Rock 69 - Appalachian State 62	-1
Arkansas State 76 - Coastal Carolina 65	0.768	Arkansas State 67 - Coastal Carolina 57	1
Bethune Cookman 69 - Howard 68	0.541	Bethune Cookman 71 - Howard 67	-3
Bucknell 74 - Holy Cross 60	0.922	Bucknell 82 - Holy Cross 68	0
Coppin State 57 - North Carolina Central 74	0.902	Coppin State 77 - North Carolina Central 86	-8
Fairfield 77 - Quinnipiac 70	0.682	Fairfield 71 - Quinnipiac 73	9
Florida AM 70 - Delaware State 68	0.556	Florida AM 77 - Delaware State 80	5
Georgia Southern 79 - UL Lafayette 73	0.645	Georgia Southern 74 - UL Lafayette 70	2
Georgia State 77 - UL Monroe 61	0.885	Georgia State 69 - UL Monroe 55	2
Kansas State 76 - Kansas 79	0.655	Kansas State 71 - Kansas 74	0
Maine 71 - Hartford 68	0.59	Maine 52 - Hartford 41	-8
New Hampshire 70 - Albany 67	0.608	New Hampshire 55 - Albany 69	17
Rider 68 - Monmouth 77	0.759	Rider 69 - Monmouth 74	-4
Saint Peters 70 - Canisius 66	0.625	Saint Peters 70 - Canisius 72	6
Savannah State 76 - Norfolk State 74	0.578	Savannah State 87 - Norfolk State 92	7
South Carolina State 69 - Hampton 67	0.558	South Carolina State 64 - Hampton 93	31
Southern 69 - Jackson State 64	0.66	Southern 88 - Jackson State 75	-8
Stony Brook 79 - UMass Lowell 66	0.872	Stony Brook 83 - UMass Lowell 72	2
Vermont 78 - Binghamton 56	0.987	Vermont 71 - Binghamton 51	2
Virginia 71 - Louisville 70	0.545	Virginia 71 - Louisville 55	-15
Wofford 70 - East Tennessee State 76	0.667	Wofford 79 - East Tennessee State 76	-9

GAMES OF 2-7

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 79 - Ball State 67	0.827	Akron 65 - Ball State 63	10
Arkansas 80 - Vanderbilt 75	0.66	Arkansas 59 - Vanderbilt 72	18
Auburn 81 - Mississippi State 76	0.635	Auburn 98 - Mississippi State 92	-1
Buffalo 72 - Northern Illinois 67	0.633	Buffalo 65 - Northern Illinois 45	-15
Clemson 79 - Syracuse 76	0.565	Clemson 81 - Syracuse 82	4
Colorado State 76 - Utah State 68	0.726	Colorado State 69 - Utah State 52	-9
Dayton 81 - Saint Josephs 62	0.95	Dayton 77 - Saint Josephs 70	12
Drake 67 - Illinois State 79	0.813	Drake 53 - Illinois State 82	17
Georgia 71 - Florida 79	0.712	Georgia 60 - Florida 72	4
Georgia Tech 94 - Unranked 50		Georgia Tech 96 - Unranked 58
Iona 77 - Siena 66	0.802	Iona 79 - Siena 81	13
Kent State 76 - Bowling Green 66	0.766	Kent State 83 - Bowling Green 84	11
Kentucky 97 - Louisiana State 69	0.969	Kentucky 92 - Louisiana State 85	21
Marquette 79 - Butler 80	0.526	Marquette 65 - Butler 68	2
Massachusetts 70 - Rhode Island 76	0.686	Massachusetts 62 - Rhode Island 70	2
Memphis 78 - Tulsa 71	0.694	Memphis 66 - Tulsa 44	-15
Miami OH 71 - Western Michigan 72	0.526	Miami OH 55 - Western Michigan 72	16
Michigan 76 - Michigan State 72	0.599	Michigan 86 - Michigan State 57	-25
North Carolina AT 74 - Unranked 65		North Carolina AT 86 - Unranked 78
Northwestern 79 - Illinois 67	0.794	Northwestern 61 - Illinois 68	19
Notre Dame 83 - Wake Forest 77	0.728	Notre Dame 88 - Wake Forest 81	-1
Ohio 82 - Central Michigan 72	0.762	Ohio 87 - Central Michigan 97	20
Penn State 73 - Maryland 79	0.681	Penn State 70 - Maryland 64	-12
Pennsylvania 66 - Princeton 72	0.706	Pennsylvania 49 - Princeton 64	9
San Jose State 68 - San Diego State 72	0.631	San Jose State 76 - San Diego State 71	-9
South Carolina 77 - Alabama 64	0.835	South Carolina 86 - Alabama 90	17
Texas 73 - Iowa State 78	0.636	Texas 67 - Iowa State 65	-7
Texas Christian 78 - Texas Tech 71	0.721	Texas Christian 62 - Texas Tech 61	6
Toledo 74 - Eastern Michigan 72	0.54	Toledo 73 - Eastern Michigan 57	-14
Villanova 84 - Georgetown 68	0.868	Villanova 75 - Georgetown 64	5

GAMES OF 2-8

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 73 - New Mexico 77	0.627	Air Force 67 - New Mexico 74	3
American 65 - Boston 73	0.736	American 64 - Boston 67	-5
Arizona 80 - Stanford 63	0.894	Arizona 74 - Stanford 67	10
Arizona State 73 - California 78	0.659	Arizona State 43 - California 68	20
Boston College 77 - Pittsburgh 79	0.54	Boston College 72 - Pittsburgh 83	9
Bradley 74 - Indiana State 72	0.557	Bradley 54 - Indiana State 56	4
Cincinnati 79 - Central Florida 63	0.874	Cincinnati 60 - Central Florida 50	6
Colgate 74 - Army 71	0.61	Colgate 70 - Army 58	-9
Connecticut 81 - South Florida 63	0.942	Connecticut 97 - South Florida 51	-28
Davidson 79 - George Mason 71	0.692	Davidson 69 - George Mason 76	15
Evansville 71 - Loyola Ill 73	0.573	Evansville 60 - Loyola Ill 58	-4
Florida State 91 - NC State 72	0.835	Florida State 95 - NC State 71	-5
Fordham 74 - La Salle 77	0.573	Fordham 52 - La Salle 67	12
George Washington 69 - Virginia Commonwealth 78	0.739	George Washington 53 - Virginia Commonwealth 54	-8
IPFW 75 - South Dakota 70	0.652	IPFW 82 - South Dakota 93	16
Lafayette 62 - Holy Cross 72	0.787	Lafayette 69 - Holy Cross 59	-20
Lehigh 72 - Bucknell 74	0.549	Lehigh 79 - Bucknell 71	-10
Miami 77 - Virginia Tech 72	0.642	Miami 74 - Virginia Tech 68	-1
Minnesota 82 - Iowa 73	0.728	Minnesota 101 - Iowa 89	-3
Morehead State 78 - Murray State 72	0.685	Morehead State 101 - Murray State 100	5
Navy 70 - Loyola MD 63	0.713	Navy 62 - Loyola MD 59	4
Nevada 83 - Nevada Las Vegas 66	0.884	Nevada 104 - Nevada Las Vegas 77	-10
North Dakota State 75 - South Dakota State 67	0.717	North Dakota State 82 - South Dakota State 65	-9
Northern Iowa 72 - Southern Illinois 68	0.61	Northern Iowa 49 - Southern Illinois 41	-4
Ohio State 79 - Rutgers 67	0.836	Ohio State 70 - Rutgers 64	6
Oklahoma 74 - West Virginia 86	0.789	Oklahoma 50 - West Virginia 61	-1
Oklahoma State 77 - Baylor 78	0.504	Oklahoma State 69 - Baylor 72	2
Omaha 82 - IUPUI 73	0.735	Omaha 78 - IUPUI 89	20
Oral Roberts 77 - Western Illinois 67	0.721	Oral Roberts 60 - Western Illinois 63	13
Saint Bonaventure 79 - Saint Louis 62	0.937	Saint Bonaventure 70 - Saint Louis 55	2
Seton Hall 77 - Providence 70	0.689	Seton Hall 72 - Providence 70	5
Tennessee 81 - Mississippi 74	0.706	Tennessee 75 - Mississippi 66	-2
Texas AM 80 - Missouri 65	0.87	Texas AM 76 - Missouri 73	12
Texas AM CC 70 - Southeast Louisiana 65	0.619	Texas AM CC 80 - Southeast Louisiana 75	0
Tulane 67 - Houston 83	0.89	Tulane 62 - Houston 91	13
UC Davis 76 - Cal State Fullerton 66	0.789	UC Davis 74 - Cal State Fullerton 65	1
UC Irvine 77 - UC Santa Barbara 58	0.883	UC Irvine 64 - UC Santa Barbara 47	2
Wyoming 77 - Fresno State 74	0.584	Wyoming 102 - Fresno State 100	1
Xavier 87 - DePaul 65	0.952	Xavier 72 - DePaul 61	11

GAMES OF 2-9

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 80 - Charlotte 71	0.714	Alabama Birmingham 82 - Charlotte 69	-4
Binghamton 64 - Albany 69	0.665	Binghamton 54 - Albany 66	7
Bryant 72 - LIU Brooklyn 69	0.582	Bryant 85 - LIU Brooklyn 88	6
Cal State Bakersfield 66 - New Mexico State 70	0.641	Cal State Bakersfield 72 - New Mexico State 53	-23
Campbell 77 - Longwood 63	0.858	Campbell 83 - Longwood 79	10
Central Arkansas 72 - Abilene Christian 69	0.59	Central Arkansas 84 - Abilene Christian 73	-8
Chicago State 67 - Seattle 71	0.6	Chicago State 65 - Seattle 90	21
College of Charleston 74 - Northeastern 62	0.816	College of Charleston 72 - Northeastern 73	13
Colorado 84 - Washington 74	0.776	Colorado 81 - Washington 66	-5
Delaware 64 - Elon 73	0.746	Delaware 76 - Elon 74	-11
Drexel 75 - William and Mary 82	0.688	Drexel 79 - William and Mary 61	-25
Duke 81 - North Carolina 80	0.529	Duke 86 - North Carolina 78	-7
East Tennessee State 93 - The Citadel 68	0.97	East Tennessee State 90 - The Citadel 69	4
Eastern Illinois 70 - Tennessee Martin 73	0.577	Eastern Illinois 81 - Tennessee Martin 71	-13
Fairleigh Dickinson 76 - Central Connecticut State 62	0.845	Fairleigh Dickinson 79 - Central Connecticut State 62	-3
Florida Atlantic 76 - North Texas 66	0.781	Florida Atlantic 64 - North Texas 70	16
Florida Gulf Coast 77 - Lipscomb 69	0.76	Florida Gulf Coast 60 - Lipscomb 65	13
Florida International 69 - Rice 78	0.77	Florida International 78 - Rice 89	2
Furman 70 - Chattanooga 68	0.566	Furman 60 - Chattanooga 56	-2
Gardner Webb 69 - Liberty 66	0.587	Gardner Webb 87 - Liberty 92	8
Grand Canyon 81 - Texas Pan American 67	0.851	Grand Canyon 76 - Texas Pan American 57	-5
Hawaii 75 - Cal Poly 64	0.813	Hawaii 74 - Cal Poly 65	2
Illinois Chicago 81 - Youngstown State 71	0.814	Illinois Chicago 84 - Youngstown State 81	7
Indiana 77 - Purdue 81	0.621	Indiana 64 - Purdue 69	1
Jacksonville 70 - South Carolina Upstate 72	0.565	Jacksonville 67 - South Carolina Upstate 70	1
Jacksonville State 65 - Belmont 73	0.762	Jacksonville State 53 - Belmont 66	5
Lamar 70 - Sam Houston State 69	0.509	Lamar 80 - Sam Houston State 76	-3
Loyola Marymount 64 - Gonzaga 86	0.977	Loyola Marymount 60 - Gonzaga 90	8
Marist 68 - Fairfield 74	0.651	Marist 53 - Fairfield 73	14
Mcneese State 65 - New Orleans 72	0.697	Mcneese State 63 - New Orleans 69	-1
Middle Tennessee 71 - Old Dominion 58	0.868	Middle Tennessee 64 - Old Dominion 51	0
Nebraska 67 - Wisconsin 79	0.853	Nebraska 69 - Wisconsin 70	-11
North Dakota 74 - Eastern Washington 73	0.509	North Dakota 95 - Eastern Washington 86	-8
North Florida 72 - NJ Tech 67	0.643	North Florida 91 - NJ Tech 69	-17
Northern Arizona 68 - Montana State 74	0.686	Northern Arizona 69 - Montana State 63	-12
Northern Colorado 66 - Idaho 68	0.581	Northern Colorado 76 - Idaho 88	10
Northern Kentucky 75 - Green Bay 71	0.61	Northern Kentucky 69 - Green Bay 67	2
Northwestern State 74 - Houston Baptist 73	0.51	Northwestern State 69 - Houston Baptist 86	18
Pacific 70 - San Diego 68	0.536	Pacific 61 - San Diego 58	-1
Pepperdine 70 - Brigham Young 85	0.854	Pepperdine 99 - Brigham Young 83	-31
Portland State 80 - Idaho State 69	0.759	Portland State 74 - Idaho State 69	6
Presbyterian 60 - High Point 73	0.843	Presbyterian 58 - High Point 68	-3
Quinnipiac 67 - Saint Peters 69	0.574	Quinnipiac 45 - Saint Peters 76	29
Radford 73 - Charleston Southern 66	0.716	Radford 79 - Charleston Southern 67	-5
Robert Morris 64 - Mt St Marys 65	0.54	Robert Morris 70 - Mt St Marys 74	3
Sacramento State 65 - Weber State 75	0.81	Sacramento State 77 - Weber State 74	-13
Sacred Heart 76 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 63	0.87	Sacred Heart 80 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 65	-2
Saint Francis Penn 71 - Wagner 67	0.634	Saint Francis Penn 74 - Wagner 76	6
Saint Marys 83 - Portland 54	0.975	Saint Marys 51 - Portland 41	19
San Francisco 74 - Santa Clara 66	0.735	San Francisco 61 - Santa Clara 58	5
SIU Edwardsville 68 - SE Missouri State 72	0.64	SIU Edwardsville 67 - SE Missouri State 71	0
Southern California 85 - Oregon State 60	0.98	Southern California 92 - Oregon State 66	-1
Southern Utah 66 - Montana 79	0.844	Southern Utah 55 - Montana 70	2
Stephen F Austin 76 - Incarnate Word 65	0.786	Stephen F Austin 87 - Incarnate Word 79	3
Stetson 71 - Kennesaw St 75	0.597	Stetson 85 - Kennesaw St 92	3
Temple 69 - Southern Methodist 78	0.752	Temple 50 - Southern Methodist 66	7
Tennessee Tech 67 - Tennessee State 69	0.555	Tennessee Tech 59 - Tennessee State 72	11
Texas El Paso 65 - Louisiana Tech 72	0.696	Texas El Paso 61 - Louisiana Tech 62	-6
Texas San Antonio 70 - Southern Miss 61	0.685	Texas San Antonio 57 - Southern Miss 51	3
Towson 79 - Hofstra 69	0.762	Towson 69 - Hofstra 65	6
UC Riverside 73 - Long Beach State 72	0.51	UC Riverside 71 - Long Beach State 78	8
UCLA 81 - Oregon 79	0.552	UCLA 82 - Oregon 79	-1
UMass Lowell 78 - Maine 67	0.859	UMass Lowell 100 - Maine 68	-21
UMBC 83 - Hartford 64	0.936	UMBC 77 - Hartford 84	26
UMKC 76 - Utah Valley 71	0.635	UMKC 84 - Utah Valley 76	-3
UNC Asheville 74 - Winthrop 70	0.677	UNC Asheville 104 - Winthrop 101	1
UNC Wilmington 82 - James Madison 61	0.949	UNC Wilmington 88 - James Madison 73	6
Utah 84 - Washington State 68	0.856	Utah 74 - Washington State 70	12
Valparaiso 76 - Cleveland State 58	0.919	Valparaiso 78 - Cleveland State 57	-3
Vermont 76 - New Hampshire 61	0.922	Vermont 82 - New Hampshire 74	7
Virginia Military Institute 66 - Mercer 73	0.697	Virginia Military Institute 51 - Mercer 81	23
Wichita State 86 - Missouri State 65	0.937	Wichita State 80 - Missouri State 62	3
Wofford 76 - Samford 72	0.618	Wofford 131 - Samford 127	0
Wright State 75 - Milwaukee 63	0.828	Wright State 76 - Milwaukee 65	1

GAMES OF 2-10

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Ball State 71 - Ohio 73	0.564	Ball State 77 - Ohio 79	0
Brown 70 - Harvard 75	0.657	Brown 74 - Harvard 87	8
Canisius 81 - Niagara 67	0.828	Canisius 81 - Niagara 94	27
Detroit 70 - Oakland 79	0.757	Detroit 80 - Oakland 89	0
Eastern Michigan 70 - Akron 72	0.56	Eastern Michigan 76 - Akron 87	9
Manhattan 66 - Monmouth 79	0.819	Manhattan 58 - Monmouth 62	-9
Pennsylvania 73 - Columbia 69	0.643	Pennsylvania 70 - Columbia 62	-4
Princeton 80 - Cornell 61	0.968	Princeton 69 - Cornell 60	10
Rhode Island 72 - Dayton 71	0.528	Rhode Island 74 - Dayton 75	2
Yale 81 - Dartmouth 60	0.981	Yale 73 - Dartmouth 64	12

GAMES OF 2-11

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 73 - Northwestern State 68	0.651	Abilene Christian 76 - Northwestern State 72	1
Alabama 72 - Kentucky 82	0.76	Alabama 58 - Kentucky 67	-1
Alabama Birmingham 69 - Old Dominion 65	0.591	Alabama Birmingham 62 - Old Dominion 83	25
Alabama State 71 - Alabama AM 58	0.83	Alabama State 97 - Alabama AM 89	5
Appalachian State 69 - Georgia State 77	0.709	Appalachian State 77 - Georgia State 72	-13
Arizona 75 - California 65	0.822	Arizona 62 - California 57	5
Arizona State 78 - Stanford 76	0.561	Arizona State 75 - Stanford 69	-4
Arkansas Pine Bluff 66 - Southern 69	0.599	Arkansas Pine Bluff 68 - Southern 61	-10
Army 75 - American 66	0.793	Army 58 - American 61	12
Baylor 79 - Texas Christian 68	0.857	Baylor 70 - Texas Christian 52	-7
Boise State 82 - Air Force 67	0.885	Boise State 76 - Air Force 66	5
Boston 73 - Loyola MD 67	0.705	Boston 78 - Loyola MD 63	-9
Bowling Green 71 - Buffalo 73	0.562	Bowling Green 74 - Buffalo 88	12
Brown 78 - Dartmouth 67	0.814	Brown 74 - Dartmouth 77	14
Bryant 77 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 63	0.913	Bryant 80 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 69	3
Cal State Bakersfield 80 - Texas Pan American 63	0.942	Cal State Bakersfield 75 - Texas Pan American 53	-5
Cal State Fullerton 75 - Long Beach State 76	0.503	Cal State Fullerton 74 - Long Beach State 69	-6
Cal State Northridge 79 - UC Santa Barbara 65	0.855	Cal State Northridge 77 - UC Santa Barbara 55	-8
Central Arkansas 76 - Nicholls State 71	0.651	Central Arkansas 106 - Nicholls State 83	-18
Central Florida 72 - Connecticut 67	0.663	Central Florida 63 - Connecticut 66	8
Chicago State 69 - Utah Valley 74	0.631	Chicago State 54 - Utah Valley 87	28
Coastal Carolina 73 - Georgia Southern 72	0.519	Coastal Carolina 82 - Georgia Southern 70	-11
Colorado State 75 - Fresno State 70	0.651	Colorado State 78 - Fresno State 62	-11
Coppin State 72 - Bethune Cookman 66	0.674	Coppin State 76 - Bethune Cookman 72	2
DePaul 70 - Creighton 85	0.863	DePaul 58 - Creighton 93	20
Drexel 72 - Towson 79	0.713	Drexel 65 - Towson 69	-3
Duke 84 - Clemson 72	0.739	Duke 64 - Clemson 62	10
East Tennessee State 76 - Mercer 62	0.888	East Tennessee State 88 - Mercer 71	-3
Eastern Illinois 73 - SE Missouri State 69	0.62	Eastern Illinois 86 - SE Missouri State 80	-2
Eastern Kentucky 69 - Morehead State 74	0.637	Eastern Kentucky 62 - Morehead State 67	0
Elon 73 - UNC Wilmington 76	0.614	Elon 77 - UNC Wilmington 76	-4
Florida 83 - Texas AM 65	0.906	Florida 71 - Texas AM 62	9
Florida Atlantic 72 - Rice 76	0.638	Florida Atlantic 75 - Rice 81	2
Florida Gulf Coast 78 - Kennesaw St 61	0.958	Florida Gulf Coast 75 - Kennesaw St 63	5
Florida International 73 - North Texas 68	0.641	Florida International 90 - North Texas 71	-14
Furman 75 - Samford 66	0.745	Furman 90 - Samford 73	-8
George Mason 78 - Fordham 68	0.737	George Mason 73 - Fordham 67	4
George Washington 73 - Saint Bonaventure 74	0.53	George Washington 76 - Saint Bonaventure 70	-7
Georgetown 81 - Marquette 79	0.558	Georgetown 80 - Marquette 62	-16
Georgia Tech 79 - Boston College 69	0.713	Georgia Tech 65 - Boston College 54	-1
Grambling State 65 - Texas Southern 76	0.774	Grambling State 70 - Texas Southern 77	-4
Grand Canyon 66 - New Mexico State 74	0.728	Grand Canyon 83 - New Mexico State 71	-20
Hampton 71 - Howard 60	0.804	Hampton 75 - Howard 61	-3
Hawaii 68 - UC Irvine 69	0.523	Hawaii 58 - UC Irvine 72	13
High Point 71 - Radford 64	0.712	High Point 68 - Radford 69	8
Houston Baptist 71 - Lamar 70	0.52	Houston Baptist 94 - Lamar 87	-6
Illinois 77 - Penn State 73	0.643	Illinois 70 - Penn State 83	17
Illinois Chicago 73 - Cleveland State 67	0.695	Illinois Chicago 63 - Cleveland State 66	9
Illinois State 80 - Bradley 58	0.931	Illinois State 64 - Bradley 50	8
Indiana State 79 - Drake 75	0.638	Indiana State 84 - Drake 60	-20
Iowa State 86 - Oklahoma 72	0.85	Iowa State 80 - Oklahoma 64	-2
IPFW 81 - Omaha 74	0.705	IPFW 108 - Omaha 101	0
IUPUI 78 - Oral Roberts 74	0.608	IUPUI 68 - Oral Roberts 74	10
Jackson State 67 - Prairie View 65	0.573	Jackson State 78 - Prairie View 69	-7
Jacksonville 71 - NJ Tech 67	0.61	Jacksonville 76 - NJ Tech 73	1
Jacksonville State 69 - Tennessee State 65	0.614	Jacksonville State 63 - Tennessee State 57	-2
James Madison 69 - Delaware 61	0.723	James Madison 57 - Delaware 58	9
La Salle 80 - Richmond 78	0.55	La Salle 52 - Richmond 64	14
Liberty 75 - Charleston Southern 61	0.916	Liberty 76 - Charleston Southern 69	7
LIU Brooklyn 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 68	0.592	LIU Brooklyn 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 69	-2
Longwood 61 - UNC Asheville 82	0.962	Longwood 69 - UNC Asheville 91	1
Louisiana State 77 - Arkansas 86	0.731	Louisiana State 70 - Arkansas 78	-1
Louisville 80 - Miami 65	0.836	Louisville 71 - Miami 66	10
Loyola Marymount 77 - Portland 66	0.805	Loyola Marymount 66 - Portland 60	5
Marist 66 - Siena 73	0.714	Marist 77 - Siena 84	0
Maryland 81 - Ohio State 70	0.815	Maryland 86 - Ohio State 77	2
Mcneese State 68 - Texas AM CC 71	0.597	Mcneese State 66 - Texas AM CC 73	4
Miami OH 74 - Central Michigan 79	0.653	Miami OH 81 - Central Michigan 76	-10
Michigan State 81 - Iowa 74	0.678	Michigan State 77 - Iowa 66	-4
Middle Tennessee 83 - Charlotte 64	0.93	Middle Tennessee 70 - Charlotte 55	4
Mississippi 83 - Auburn 78	0.638	Mississippi 90 - Auburn 84	-1
Mississippi State 69 - South Carolina 76	0.673	Mississippi State 73 - South Carolina 77	-3
Mississippi Valley State 69 - Alcorn State 73	0.631	Mississippi Valley State 77 - Alcorn State 88	7
Missouri 70 - Vanderbilt 79	0.744	Missouri 72 - Vanderbilt 52	-29
Morgan State 72 - Delaware State 62	0.74	Morgan State 45 - Delaware State 56	21
Murray State 81 - Austin Peay 70	0.824	Murray State 102 - Austin Peay 58	-33
Navy 79 - Lafayette 58	0.927	Navy 68 - Lafayette 60	13
Nevada Las Vegas 73 - San Jose State 72	0.557	Nevada Las Vegas 74 - San Jose State 76	3
Norfolk State 72 - Maryland Eastern Shore 66	0.721	Norfolk State 75 - Maryland Eastern Shore 69	0
North Carolina AT 67 - Florida AM 68	0.518	North Carolina AT 77 - Florida AM 83	5
North Carolina Central 77 - South Carolina State 58	0.929	North Carolina Central 85 - South Carolina State 62	-4
North Dakota 72 - Idaho 67	0.611	North Dakota 88 - Idaho 65	-18
North Dakota State 70 - Denver 68	0.584	North Dakota State 81 - Denver 63	-16
North Florida 72 - South Carolina Upstate 71	0.508	North Florida 71 - South Carolina Upstate 84	14
Northeastern 77 - Hofstra 69	0.689	Northeastern 64 - Hofstra 74	18
Northern Arizona 65 - Montana 74	0.742	Northern Arizona 59 - Montana 76	8
Northern Colorado 67 - Eastern Washington 74	0.692	Northern Colorado 44 - Eastern Washington 70	19
Northern Kentucky 75 - Milwaukee 62	0.875	Northern Kentucky 69 - Milwaukee 63	7
Notre Dame 78 - Florida State 79	0.524	Notre Dame 84 - Florida State 72	-13
Oklahoma State 85 - Texas 71	0.82	Oklahoma State 84 - Texas 71	1
Pacific 67 - Santa Clara 72	0.643	Pacific 47 - Santa Clara 64	12
Pittsburgh 77 - Syracuse 78	0.528	Pittsburgh 80 - Syracuse 75	-6
Portland State 72 - Weber State 77	0.625	Portland State 93 - Weber State 96	-2
Presbyterian 62 - Campbell 70	0.732	Presbyterian 57 - Campbell 70	5
Princeton 78 - Columbia 64	0.914	Princeton 61 - Columbia 59	12
Providence 71 - Butler 76	0.648	Providence 71 - Butler 65	-11
Rider 75 - Quinnipiac 71	0.655	Rider 112 - Quinnipiac 107	-1
Robert Morris 65 - Wagner 63	0.574	Robert Morris 50 - Wagner 48	0
Rutgers 68 - Minnesota 76	0.745	Rutgers 63 - Minnesota 72	1
Sacramento State 73 - Idaho State 68	0.676	Sacramento State 75 - Idaho State 63	-7
Sacred Heart 74 - Central Connecticut State 64	0.784	Sacred Heart 77 - Central Connecticut State 62	-5
Saint Francis Penn 71 - Mt St Marys 69	0.542	Saint Francis Penn 62 - Mt St Marys 81	21
Saint Johns 77 - Seton Hall 78	0.53	Saint Johns 78 - Seton Hall 70	-9
Saint Josephs 74 - Massachusetts 72	0.586	Saint Josephs 76 - Massachusetts 87	13
Saint Louis 71 - Duquesne 70	0.535	Saint Louis 87 - Duquesne 81	-5
Saint Marys 70 - Gonzaga 73	0.6	Saint Marys 64 - Gonzaga 74	7
Sam Houston State 80 - Incarnate Word 65	0.883	Sam Houston State 72 - Incarnate Word 63	6
San Diego 76 - Pepperdine 67	0.75	San Diego 60 - Pepperdine 65	14
San Francisco 77 - Brigham Young 75	0.556	San Francisco 52 - Brigham Young 68	18
SIU Edwardsville 65 - Tennessee Martin 76	0.816	SIU Edwardsville 73 - Tennessee Martin 80	-4
South Dakota 76 - South Dakota State 67	0.753	South Dakota 91 - South Dakota State 89	7
South Florida 69 - East Carolina 71	0.583	South Florida 64 - East Carolina 57	-9
Southeast Louisiana 68 - New Orleans 67	0.502	Southeast Louisiana 52 - New Orleans 60	9
Southern California 72 - Oregon 77	0.624	Southern California 70 - Oregon 81	6
Southern Illinois 75 - Evansville 67	0.716	Southern Illinois 70 - Evansville 75	13
Southern Utah 70 - Montana State 80	0.817	Southern Utah 78 - Montana State 83	-5
Stetson 71 - Lipscomb 82	0.789	Stetson 85 - Lipscomb 97	1
Tennessee 79 - Georgia 72	0.689	Tennessee 75 - Georgia 76	8
Tennessee Tech 64 - Belmont 77	0.854	Tennessee Tech 83 - Belmont 70	-26
Texas Arlington 76 - Arkansas State 70	0.655	Texas Arlington 81 - Arkansas State 75	0
Texas El Paso 72 - Southern Miss 60	0.746	Texas El Paso 80 - Southern Miss 50	-18
Texas San Antonio 63 - Louisiana Tech 73	0.753	Texas San Antonio 66 - Louisiana Tech 72	-4
Texas State 70 - Arkansas Little Rock 63	0.712	Texas State 56 - Arkansas Little Rock 49	0
Texas Tech 73 - Kansas 81	0.772	Texas Tech 79 - Kansas 80	-7
Toledo 75 - Kent State 73	0.567	Toledo 78 - Kent State 58	-18
Tulsa 72 - Houston 74	0.562	Tulsa 64 - Houston 73	7
UC Davis 71 - UC Riverside 62	0.777	UC Davis 77 - UC Riverside 63	-5
UL Lafayette 79 - Troy 73	0.661	UL Lafayette 88 - Troy 100	18
UL Monroe 67 - South Alabama 68	0.517	UL Monroe 63 - South Alabama 66	2
UMKC 74 - Seattle 68	0.702	UMKC 102 - Seattle 72	-24
Utah 86 - Washington 71	0.854	Utah 85 - Washington 61	-9
Utah State 76 - Wyoming 73	0.582	Utah State 81 - Wyoming 74	-4
Valparaiso 85 - Youngstown State 62	0.957	Valparaiso 82 - Youngstown State 72	13
Virginia Commonwealth 80 - Davidson 68	0.801	Virginia Commonwealth 74 - Davidson 60	-2
Virginia Military Institute 83 - The Citadel 79	0.609	Virginia Military Institute 101 - The Citadel 78	-19
Wake Forest 88 - NC State 77	0.782	Wake Forest 88 - NC State 58	-19
West Virginia 83 - Kansas State 72	0.782	West Virginia 85 - Kansas State 66	-8
Western Carolina 62 - UNC Greensboro 72	0.774	Western Carolina 68 - UNC Greensboro 76	-2
Western Kentucky 78 - Marshall 79	0.502	Western Kentucky 79 - Marshall 84	4
Western Michigan 69 - Northern Illinois 70	0.515	Western Michigan 76 - Northern Illinois 67	-10
William and Mary 71 - College of Charleston 72	0.544	William and Mary 89 - College of Charleston 79	-11
Winthrop 78 - Gardner Webb 66	0.881	Winthrop 77 - Gardner Webb 71	6
Wofford 71 - Chattanooga 74	0.574	Wofford 65 - Chattanooga 73	5
Wright State 74 - Green Bay 72	0.562	Wright State 88 - Green Bay 79	-7
Xavier 75 - Villanova 77	0.584	Xavier 57 - Villanova 73	14
Yale 73 - Harvard 68	0.742	Yale 67 - Harvard 75	13

GAMES OF 2-12

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Binghamton 65 - New Hampshire 69	0.642	Binghamton 55 - New Hampshire 63	4
Colorado 81 - Washington State 71	0.782	Colorado 81 - Washington State 49	-22
Hartford 72 - UMass Lowell 74	0.555	Hartford 87 - UMass Lowell 84	-5
Holy Cross 67 - Lehigh 68	0.53	Holy Cross 61 - Lehigh 45	-17
Indiana 79 - Michigan 75	0.608	Indiana 63 - Michigan 75	16
Loyola Ill 70 - Wichita State 80	0.758	Loyola Ill 64 - Wichita State 81	7
Manhattan 63 - Saint Peters 68	0.656	Manhattan 50 - Saint Peters 69	14
Memphis 79 - Temple 72	0.694	Memphis 62 - Temple 74	19
Missouri State 73 - Northern Iowa 68	0.645	Missouri State 52 - Northern Iowa 55	8
Niagara 69 - Iona 78	0.733	Niagara 76 - Iona 90	5
Pennsylvania 76 - Cornell 66	0.807	Pennsylvania 82 - Cornell 63	-9
San Diego State 73 - Nevada 71	0.541	San Diego State 70 - Nevada 56	-12
Southern Methodist 74 - Cincinnati 70	0.589	Southern Methodist 60 - Cincinnati 51	-5
Stony Brook 79 - Maine 59	0.952	Stony Brook 67 - Maine 66	19
UCLA 94 - Oregon State 62	0.992	UCLA 78 - Oregon State 60	14
UMBC 71 - Vermont 76	0.703	UMBC 74 - Vermont 77	-2
Virginia Tech 69 - Virginia 76	0.684	Virginia Tech 80 - Virginia 78	-9
Wisconsin 76 - Northwestern 66	0.776	Wisconsin 59 - Northwestern 66	17

Number of DI Games: 339
Number Correct: 250 = 73.7%
Expected Number Correct: 240.736 = 71%
Average Error: 8.64
Average Signed Error: 1.31

WEEK 15 -- 2-13 to 2-19

GAMES OF 2-13

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Appalachian State 71 - Georgia Southern 75	0.626	Appalachian State 83 - Georgia Southern 78	-9
Arkansas Pine Bluff 62 - Alcorn State 68	0.677	Arkansas Pine Bluff 58 - Alcorn State 70	6
Bucknell 80 - Colgate 61	0.97	Bucknell 75 - Colgate 58	2
Coastal Carolina 72 - Georgia State 71	0.525	Coastal Carolina 65 - Georgia State 64	0
Coppin State 67 - Delaware State 66	0.52	Coppin State 83 - Delaware State 75	-7
DePaul 63 - Villanova 86	0.954	DePaul 62 - Villanova 75	-10
Fairfield 74 - Rider 68	0.655	Fairfield 69 - Rider 67	4
Grambling State 68 - Prairie View 69	0.508	Grambling State 61 - Prairie View 58	-4
Howard 62 - Morgan State 65	0.575	Howard 70 - Morgan State 67	-6
Jackson State 64 - Texas Southern 72	0.706	Jackson State 71 - Texas Southern 62	-17
Kansas 83 - West Virginia 79	0.62	Kansas 84 - West Virginia 80	0
Maryland Eastern Shore 78 - Bethune Cookman 64	0.915	Maryland Eastern Shore 82 - Bethune Cookman 81	13
Mississippi Valley State 71 - Southern 73	0.561	Mississippi Valley State 72 - Southern 81	7
North Carolina AT 66 - South Carolina State 70	0.622	North Carolina AT 65 - South Carolina State 72	3
North Carolina Central 80 - Florida AM 55	0.981	North Carolina Central 78 - Florida AM 73	20
Siena 69 - Monmouth 74	0.655	Siena 82 - Monmouth 102	15
Syracuse 73 - Louisville 80	0.647	Syracuse 72 - Louisville 76	-3
Texas Arlington 80 - Arkansas Little Rock 62	0.886	Texas Arlington 71 - Arkansas Little Rock 55	2
Texas State 66 - Arkansas State 70	0.608	Texas State 62 - Arkansas State 58	-8
Texas Tech 69 - Baylor 75	0.74	Texas Tech 84 - Baylor 78	-12
UL Lafayette 77 - South Alabama 70	0.686	UL Lafayette 87 - South Alabama 61	-19
UL Monroe 67 - Troy 72	0.658	UL Monroe 72 - Troy 73	-4
Virginia Military Institute 63 - Furman 77	0.8	Virginia Military Institute 52 - Furman 80	14

GAMES OF 2-14

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 79 - Toledo 68	0.772	Akron 71 - Toledo 65	5
Auburn 75 - Florida 85	0.758	Auburn 95 - Florida 114	9
Boston College 71 - Notre Dame 84	0.84	Boston College 76 - Notre Dame 84	-5
Canisius 74 - Iona 75	0.503	Canisius 89 - Iona 83	-7
Central Florida 74 - Tulsa 68	0.675	Central Florida 71 - Tulsa 53	-12
Central Michigan 79 - Buffalo 78	0.521	Central Michigan 93 - Buffalo 99	7
Clemson 81 - Wake Forest 79	0.548	Clemson 95 - Wake Forest 83	-10
Eastern Michigan 70 - Ohio 71	0.524	Eastern Michigan 71 - Ohio 79	7
Evansville 79 - Drake 69	0.772	Evansville 87 - Drake 70	-7
George Mason 76 - Richmond 75	0.541	George Mason 93 - Richmond 70	-22
Georgia 79 - Mississippi State 71	0.729	Georgia 79 - Mississippi State 72	1
Kent State 76 - Miami OH 64	0.809	Kent State 76 - Miami OH 72	8
Kentucky 87 - Tennessee 74	0.828	Kentucky 83 - Tennessee 58	-12
Liberty 70 - High Point 62	0.756	Liberty 55 - High Point 52	5
Michigan State 78 - Ohio State 72	0.659	Michigan State 74 - Ohio State 66	-2
Mississippi 88 - Louisiana State 73	0.848	Mississippi 96 - Louisiana State 76	-5
Nebraska 77 - Penn State 76	0.518	Nebraska 82 - Penn State 66	-15
New Mexico 75 - Boise State 74	0.535	New Mexico 78 - Boise State 73	-4
Northern Illinois 71 - Ball State 68	0.58	Northern Illinois 72 - Ball State 81	12
Oklahoma 76 - Texas 75	0.548	Oklahoma 70 - Texas 66	-3
Pittsburgh 80 - Virginia Tech 79	0.522	Pittsburgh 63 - Virginia Tech 66	4
Purdue 86 - Rutgers 62	0.968	Purdue 74 - Rutgers 55	5
Saint Louis 60 - Dayton 78	0.943	Saint Louis 63 - Dayton 85	4
Saint Peters 75 - Marist 55	0.924	Saint Peters 71 - Marist 46	-5
Virginia Commonwealth 83 - Saint Josephs 65	0.921	Virginia Commonwealth 91 - Saint Josephs 81	8
Western Illinois 64 - Denver 73	0.707	Western Illinois 72 - Denver 78	-3
Western Michigan 76 - Bowling Green 69	0.693	Western Michigan 89 - Bowling Green 79	-3
Wyoming 74 - Colorado State 75	0.523	Wyoming 73 - Colorado State 78	4

GAMES OF 2-15

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 71 - Nevada 80	0.756	Air Force 59 - Nevada 78	10
Albany 76 - UMBC 69	0.716	Albany 78 - UMBC 69	-2
Butler 85 - Saint Johns 71	0.821	Butler 110 - Saint Johns 86	-10
Cal State Northridge 80 - Cal Poly 68	0.818	Cal State Northridge 71 - Cal Poly 85	26
Charleston Southern 71 - Campbell 69	0.553	Charleston Southern 72 - Campbell 69	-1
Colgate 69 - Boston 72	0.629	Colgate 68 - Boston 69	-2
Davidson 76 - George Washington 70	0.704	Davidson 74 - George Washington 63	-5
Duquesne 73 - Massachusetts 77	0.628	Duquesne 96 - Massachusetts 66	-34
East Carolina 68 - Temple 74	0.678	East Carolina 78 - Temple 64	-20
East Tennessee State 81 - Samford 67	0.9	East Tennessee State 79 - Samford 77	12
Fresno State 77 - San Jose State 71	0.67	Fresno State 77 - San Jose State 59	-12
Gardner Webb 73 - Radford 65	0.741	Gardner Webb 70 - Radford 59	-3
Hartford 64 - Stony Brook 73	0.742	Hartford 54 - Stony Brook 66	3
Holy Cross 74 - Army 64	0.778	Holy Cross 47 - Army 52	15
Incarnate Word 70 - Texas AM CC 74	0.626	Incarnate Word 81 - Texas AM CC 97	12
IPFW 74 - North Dakota State 71	0.556	IPFW 77 - North Dakota State 61	-13
Kansas State 78 - Iowa State 75	0.593	Kansas State 79 - Iowa State 87	11
Lafayette 69 - American 68	0.504	Lafayette 78 - American 65	-12
Lehigh 72 - Navy 67	0.626	Lehigh 74 - Navy 55	-14
Longwood 62 - Winthrop 83	0.978	Longwood 63 - Winthrop 83	-1
Loyola Ill 80 - Indiana State 70	0.799	Loyola Ill 64 - Indiana State 46	-8
Loyola MD 67 - Bucknell 74	0.752	Loyola MD 78 - Bucknell 77	-8
Miami 75 - Georgia Tech 66	0.691	Miami 70 - Georgia Tech 61	0
Minnesota 81 - Indiana 74	0.703	Minnesota 75 - Indiana 74	6
Missouri 68 - Alabama 75	0.68	Missouri 54 - Alabama 57	-4
Missouri State 67 - Illinois State 75	0.739	Missouri State 66 - Illinois State 67	-7
NC State 76 - North Carolina 89	0.746	NC State 73 - North Carolina 97	11
New Hampshire 77 - Maine 59	0.931	New Hampshire 64 - Maine 51	5
Norfolk State 74 - South Carolina State 62	0.832	Norfolk State 81 - South Carolina State 70	1
Northern Iowa 74 - Bradley 61	0.824	Northern Iowa 64 - Bradley 61	10
Northwestern 76 - Maryland 73	0.598	Northwestern 64 - Maryland 74	13
Providence 74 - Xavier 76	0.59	Providence 75 - Xavier 63	-14
Rhode Island 80 - Fordham 61	0.924	Rhode Island 43 - Fordham 53	29
Saint Bonaventure 80 - La Salle 75	0.656	Saint Bonaventure 83 - La Salle 65	-13
Saint Francis Brooklyn 62 - LIU Brooklyn 72	0.782	Saint Francis Brooklyn 45 - LIU Brooklyn 82	27
Seton Hall 76 - Creighton 80	0.628	Seton Hall 87 - Creighton 81	-10
South Carolina 81 - Arkansas 71	0.773	South Carolina 76 - Arkansas 83	17
South Dakota State 77 - IUPUI 72	0.643	South Dakota State 81 - IUPUI 67	-9
South Florida 61 - Cincinnati 86	0.955	South Florida 54 - Cincinnati 68	-11
Southern Illinois 67 - Wichita State 82	0.848	Southern Illinois 68 - Wichita State 87	4
Southern Methodist 91 - Tulane 58	0.995	Southern Methodist 80 - Tulane 75	28
Texas Christian 81 - Oklahoma State 80	0.502	Texas Christian 68 - Oklahoma State 71	4
UMass Lowell 65 - Vermont 80	0.924	UMass Lowell 66 - Vermont 87	6
UNC Asheville 84 - Presbyterian 53	0.998	UNC Asheville 89 - Presbyterian 48	-10
UNC Greensboro 76 - Wofford 71	0.65	UNC Greensboro 74 - Wofford 55	-14
Utah State 68 - San Diego State 71	0.568	Utah State 62 - San Diego State 66	1
Virginia 76 - Duke 70	0.644	Virginia 55 - Duke 65	16
Virginia Military Institute 63 - Chattanooga 77	0.809	Virginia Military Institute 68 - Chattanooga 74	-8
Western Carolina 57 - Furman 73	0.84	Western Carolina 62 - Furman 74	-4

GAMES OF 2-16

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Austin Peay 72 - Eastern Illinois 75	0.579	Austin Peay 85 - Eastern Illinois 80	-8
Belmont 81 - Eastern Kentucky 59	0.941	Belmont 76 - Eastern Kentucky 72	18
Brigham Young 83 - San Diego 65	0.876	Brigham Young 82 - San Diego 70	6
Bryant 70 - Robert Morris 67	0.609	Bryant 81 - Robert Morris 73	-5
Central Connecticut State 66 - Saint Francis Penn 73	0.668	Central Connecticut State 71 - Saint Francis Penn 80	2
Cleveland State 65 - Northern Kentucky 68	0.625	Cleveland State 60 - Northern Kentucky 62	-1
Connecticut 75 - Memphis 72	0.598	Connecticut 65 - Memphis 62	0
Delaware 73 - Drexel 71	0.542	Delaware 68 - Drexel 67	1
Gonzaga 86 - San Francisco 62	0.977	Gonzaga 96 - San Francisco 61	-11
Hofstra 69 - College of Charleston 73	0.648	Hofstra 72 - College of Charleston 76	0
Houston Baptist 69 - Sam Houston State 70	0.506	Houston Baptist 88 - Sam Houston State 77	-12
Idaho State 66 - North Dakota 76	0.741	Idaho State 61 - North Dakota 77	6
James Madison 69 - William and Mary 74	0.628	James Madison 95 - William and Mary 92	-8
Kennesaw St 73 - Jacksonville 66	0.768	Kennesaw St 78 - Jacksonville 79	8
Lipscomb 81 - North Florida 67	0.818	Lipscomb 82 - North Florida 93	25
Long Beach State 74 - UC Davis 73	0.517	Long Beach State 78 - UC Davis 69	-8
Louisiana Tech 79 - Florida Atlantic 62	0.924	Louisiana Tech 95 - Florida Atlantic 69	-9
Marshall 81 - Alabama Birmingham 77	0.585	Marshall 74 - Alabama Birmingham 59	-11
Mcneese State 67 - Abilene Christian 66	0.546	Mcneese State 78 - Abilene Christian 82	5
Michigan 72 - Wisconsin 73	0.534	Michigan 64 - Wisconsin 58	-7
Monmouth 83 - Niagara 64	0.908	Monmouth 93 - Niagara 75	1
Montana 75 - Sacramento State 63	0.86	Montana 65 - Sacramento State 67	14
Montana State 78 - Portland State 73	0.624	Montana State 92 - Portland State 90	3
Murray State 81 - SIU Edwardsville 63	0.902	Murray State 84 - SIU Edwardsville 73	7
Nicholls State 74 - Central Arkansas 75	0.521	Nicholls State 96 - Central Arkansas 89	-8
NJ Tech 62 - Florida Gulf Coast 73	0.838	NJ Tech 73 - Florida Gulf Coast 80	-4
North Texas 67 - Texas El Paso 71	0.599	North Texas 71 - Texas El Paso 77	2
Northeastern 72 - UNC Wilmington 77	0.652	Northeastern 65 - UNC Wilmington 66	-4
Northwestern State 68 - Southeast Louisiana 71	0.56	Northwestern State 66 - Southeast Louisiana 73	4
Omaha 80 - Oral Roberts 73	0.684	Omaha 83 - Oral Roberts 76	0
Oregon 82 - Utah 68	0.811	Oregon 79 - Utah 61	-4
Oregon State 66 - Colorado 79	0.838	Oregon State 52 - Colorado 60	-5
Portland 72 - Pacific 68	0.612	Portland 65 - Pacific 76	15
Rice 79 - Texas San Antonio 64	0.85	Rice 80 - Texas San Antonio 68	3
Sacred Heart 73 - Fairleigh Dickinson 72	0.542	Sacred Heart 91 - Fairleigh Dickinson 81	-9
Saint Marys 81 - Loyola Marymount 59	0.958	Saint Marys 81 - Loyola Marymount 48	-11
Santa Clara 79 - Pepperdine 65	0.817	Santa Clara 106 - Pepperdine 55	-37
Seattle 68 - Grand Canyon 72	0.614	Seattle 58 - Grand Canyon 61	-1
Siena 75 - Manhattan 63	0.852	Siena 94 - Manhattan 71	-11
South Carolina Upstate 81 - Stetson 65	0.897	South Carolina Upstate 72 - Stetson 83	27
Southern Miss 69 - Florida International 68	0.503	Southern Miss 69 - Florida International 66	-2
Stephen F Austin 69 - Lamar 65	0.603	Stephen F Austin 70 - Lamar 61	-5
Tennessee State 72 - Morehead State 70	0.602	Tennessee State 64 - Morehead State 52	-10
Towson 73 - Elon 69	0.633	Towson 85 - Elon 66	-15
UC Riverside 70 - Cal State Fullerton 67	0.592	UC Riverside 55 - Cal State Fullerton 56	4
UC Santa Barbara 64 - Hawaii 70	0.703	UC Santa Barbara 56 - Hawaii 54	-8
Utah Valley 66 - Cal State Bakersfield 72	0.669	Utah Valley 71 - Cal State Bakersfield 80	3
Vanderbilt 76 - Texas AM 71	0.634	Vanderbilt 72 - Texas AM 67	0
Wagner 64 - Mt St Marys 65	0.508	Wagner 69 - Mt St Marys 65	-5
Washington 80 - Arizona State 81	0.501	Washington 81 - Arizona State 83	1
Washington State 65 - Arizona 82	0.872	Washington State 59 - Arizona 78	2
Weber State 78 - Northern Colorado 61	0.893	Weber State 69 - Northern Colorado 63	11
Western Kentucky 62 - Middle Tennessee 74	0.826	Western Kentucky 52 - Middle Tennessee 78	14
Youngstown State 70 - Wright State 78	0.721	Youngstown State 81 - Wright State 84	-5

GAMES OF 2-17

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 79 - Kent State 65	0.841	Akron 67 - Kent State 70	17
Arkansas State 77 - Arkansas Little Rock 62	0.867	Arkansas State 67 - Arkansas Little Rock 58	6
Brown 72 - Pennsylvania 74	0.549	Brown 72 - Pennsylvania 96	22
Dartmouth 72 - Cornell 70	0.603	Dartmouth 65 - Cornell 69	6
Detroit 76 - Illinois Chicago 77	0.54	Detroit 69 - Illinois Chicago 74	4
Eastern Washington 75 - Idaho 66	0.755	Eastern Washington 77 - Idaho 67	-1
Harvard 77 - Columbia 65	0.913	Harvard 78 - Columbia 72	6
Marist 66 - Iona 79	0.838	Marist 88 - Iona 95	-6
Oakland 70 - Valparaiso 71	0.513	Oakland 82 - Valparaiso 71	-12
Quinnipiac 74 - Fairfield 73	0.504	Quinnipiac 86 - Fairfield 89	4
Richmond 73 - Virginia Commonwealth 76	0.58	Richmond 73 - Virginia Commonwealth 84	8
Rider 73 - Canisius 74	0.501	Rider 77 - Canisius 85	7
Stanford 68 - California 72	0.642	Stanford 73 - California 68	-9
Yale 69 - Princeton 70	0.513	Yale 52 - Princeton 71	18

GAMES OF 2-18

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 83 - Louisiana State 69	0.85	Alabama 90 - Louisiana State 72	-4
Alcorn State 72 - Alabama State 60	0.872	Alcorn State 75 - Alabama State 67	4
Arkansas 82 - Mississippi 77	0.639	Arkansas 98 - Mississippi 80	-13
Austin Peay 76 - SIU Edwardsville 69	0.716	Austin Peay 92 - SIU Edwardsville 84	-1
Baylor 78 - Kansas 74	0.642	Baylor 65 - Kansas 67	6
Belmont 80 - Morehead State 67	0.883	Belmont 89 - Morehead State 73	-3
Bethune Cookman 65 - Hampton 73	0.763	Bethune Cookman 62 - Hampton 61	-9
Boise State 81 - Wyoming 71	0.799	Boise State 91 - Wyoming 87	6
Bradley 68 - Evansville 71	0.564	Bradley 84 - Evansville 72	-15
Brigham Young 71 - Saint Marys 76	0.611	Brigham Young 57 - Saint Marys 70	8
Brown 66 - Princeton 77	0.835	Brown 51 - Princeton 66	4
Bryant 75 - Saint Francis Penn 73	0.577	Bryant 79 - Saint Francis Penn 75	-2
Buffalo 78 - Miami OH 63	0.875	Buffalo 71 - Miami OH 58	2
Cal Poly 68 - Hawaii 71	0.592	Cal Poly 61 - Hawaii 82	18
Cal State Fullerton 69 - UC Davis 72	0.595	Cal State Fullerton 79 - UC Davis 72	-10
Campbell 65 - UNC Asheville 76	0.817	Campbell 53 - UNC Asheville 66	2
Central Connecticut State 61 - Robert Morris 67	0.681	Central Connecticut State 64 - Robert Morris 74	4
Central Michigan 81 - Ball State 76	0.62	Central Michigan 100 - Ball State 109	14
Charleston Southern 69 - High Point 72	0.596	Charleston Southern 76 - High Point 75	-4
Chattanooga 71 - East Tennessee State 69	0.547	Chattanooga 51 - East Tennessee State 65	16
Cincinnati 82 - Tulsa 63	0.928	Cincinnati 80 - Tulsa 60	-1
Cleveland State 66 - Wright State 69	0.591	Cleveland State 68 - Wright State 74	3
Dartmouth 69 - Columbia 72	0.608	Dartmouth 80 - Columbia 79	-4
Dayton 80 - Saint Bonaventure 67	0.883	Dayton 76 - Saint Bonaventure 72	9
Delaware 69 - William and Mary 76	0.664	Delaware 64 - William and Mary 85	14
Drake 74 - Missouri State 77	0.604	Drake 73 - Missouri State 76	0
Drexel 72 - Elon 77	0.651	Drexel 56 - Elon 65	4
Duke 86 - Wake Forest 75	0.76	Duke 99 - Wake Forest 94	6
East Carolina 64 - Central Florida 70	0.668	East Carolina 58 - Central Florida 61	-3
Fairleigh Dickinson 69 - Mt St Marys 70	0.536	Fairleigh Dickinson 74 - Mt St Marys 79	4
Florida AM 64 - Norfolk State 72	0.77	Florida AM 65 - Norfolk State 77	4
Fordham 71 - Saint Louis 64	0.709	Fordham 54 - Saint Louis 40	-7
Fresno State 76 - New Mexico 74	0.543	Fresno State 71 - New Mexico 61	-8
Furman 73 - UNC Greensboro 64	0.736	Furman 52 - UNC Greensboro 73	30
George Mason 73 - Rhode Island 76	0.586	George Mason 74 - Rhode Island 77	0
Georgia 76 - Kentucky 83	0.697	Georgia 77 - Kentucky 82	-2
Georgia Southern 72 - Texas State 65	0.721	Georgia Southern 70 - Texas State 67	4
Georgia State 73 - Texas Arlington 75	0.556	Georgia State 67 - Texas Arlington 68	-1
Gonzaga 92 - Pacific 55	0.998	Gonzaga 82 - Pacific 61	16
Harvard 80 - Cornell 62	0.97	Harvard 87 - Cornell 75	6
Hofstra 73 - UNC Wilmington 81	0.729	Hofstra 76 - UNC Wilmington 83	-1
Houston 70 - Southern Methodist 74	0.599	Houston 66 - Southern Methodist 76	6
Houston Baptist 86 - Unranked 59		Houston Baptist 92 - Unranked 78
Howard 69 - North Carolina AT 61	0.732	Howard 84 - North Carolina AT 53	-23
Idaho State 69 - Northern Colorado 68	0.536	Idaho State 81 - Northern Colorado 87	7
Incarnate Word 68 - Sam Houston State 75	0.713	Incarnate Word 69 - Sam Houston State 53	-23
Iowa 80 - Illinois 76	0.597	Iowa 66 - Illinois 70	8
Iowa State 80 - Texas Christian 74	0.684	Iowa State 84 - Texas Christian 71	-7
IPFW 80 - South Dakota State 71	0.756	IPFW 89 - South Dakota State 97	17
Jackson State 70 - Grambling State 62	0.718	Jackson State 59 - Grambling State 62	11
Jacksonville State 71 - Tennessee Tech 63	0.721	Jacksonville State 78 - Tennessee Tech 79	9
Kennesaw St 73 - North Florida 69	0.627	Kennesaw St 85 - North Florida 68	-13
La Salle 81 - Saint Josephs 73	0.742	La Salle 83 - Saint Josephs 68	-7
Lipscomb 81 - Jacksonville 65	0.92	Lipscomb 81 - Jacksonville 69	4
LIU Brooklyn 74 - Sacred Heart 67	0.72	LIU Brooklyn 83 - Sacred Heart 82	6
Louisiana Tech 81 - Florida International 61	0.94	Louisiana Tech 77 - Florida International 61	4
Louisville 85 - Virginia Tech 69	0.836	Louisville 94 - Virginia Tech 90	12
Loyola Marymount 80 - Pepperdine 69	0.786	Loyola Marymount 82 - Pepperdine 61	-10
Marquette 79 - Xavier 80	0.535	Marquette 83 - Xavier 61	-23
Marshall 73 - Middle Tennessee 80	0.675	Marshall 86 - Middle Tennessee 97	4
Maryland Eastern Shore 63 - North Carolina Central 73	0.777	Maryland Eastern Shore 69 - North Carolina Central 82	3
Massachusetts 75 - Davidson 73	0.55	Massachusetts 74 - Davidson 79	7
Miami 77 - Clemson 71	0.637	Miami 71 - Clemson 65	0
Milwaukee 69 - Green Bay 74	0.648	Milwaukee 56 - Green Bay 80	19
Mississippi State 70 - Florida 81	0.793	Mississippi State 52 - Florida 57	-6
Montana 78 - Portland State 69	0.737	Montana 85 - Portland State 82	6
Montana State 75 - Sacramento State 67	0.772	Montana State 62 - Sacramento State 59	5
Morgan State 74 - Savannah State 71	0.583	Morgan State 83 - Savannah State 75	-5
Murray State 77 - Eastern Illinois 69	0.694	Murray State 65 - Eastern Illinois 82	25
Navy 77 - Army 64	0.848	Navy 68 - Army 71	16
NC State 76 - Notre Dame 84	0.716	NC State 72 - Notre Dame 81	1
Nevada 80 - Utah State 68	0.801	Nevada 77 - Utah State 66	1
New Hampshire 77 - Hartford 60	0.891	New Hampshire 82 - Hartford 52	-13
New Orleans 77 - Central Arkansas 65	0.828	New Orleans 84 - Central Arkansas 61	-11
Nicholls State 75 - Northwestern State 72	0.578	Nicholls State 78 - Northwestern State 80	5
NJ Tech 76 - Stetson 68	0.726	NJ Tech 60 - Stetson 56	4
North Carolina 77 - Virginia 74	0.571	North Carolina 65 - Virginia 41	-21
North Dakota State 77 - Western Illinois 58	0.868	North Dakota State 100 - Western Illinois 91	10
North Texas 68 - Texas San Antonio 69	0.508	North Texas 83 - Texas San Antonio 73	-11
Northeastern 67 - College of Charleston 69	0.565	Northeastern 71 - College of Charleston 85	12
Northern Illinois 71 - Toledo 70	0.516	Northern Illinois 80 - Toledo 88	9
Northwestern 80 - Rutgers 62	0.91	Northwestern 69 - Rutgers 65	14
Ohio 78 - Bowling Green 65	0.835	Ohio 95 - Bowling Green 75	-7
Ohio State 80 - Nebraska 72	0.743	Ohio State 57 - Nebraska 58	9
Oklahoma State 90 - Oklahoma 74	0.874	Oklahoma State 96 - Oklahoma 92	12
Old Dominion 76 - Charlotte 65	0.827	Old Dominion 72 - Charlotte 48	-13
Oregon 83 - Colorado 66	0.872	Oregon 101 - Colorado 73	-11
Pittsburgh 76 - Florida State 83	0.65	Pittsburgh 80 - Florida State 66	-21
Portland 66 - San Francisco 75	0.744	Portland 51 - San Francisco 65	5
Prairie View 77 - Mississippi Valley State 67	0.784	Prairie View 82 - Mississippi Valley State 69	-3
Presbyterian 61 - Gardner Webb 75	0.914	Presbyterian 56 - Gardner Webb 84	14
Purdue 82 - Michigan State 69	0.817	Purdue 80 - Michigan State 63	-4
Radford 77 - Longwood 60	0.897	Radford 79 - Longwood 72	10
Rice 77 - Texas El Paso 67	0.777	Rice 71 - Texas El Paso 79	18
Saint Francis Brooklyn 60 - Wagner 70	0.828	Saint Francis Brooklyn 55 - Wagner 73	8
Samford 82 - Virginia Military Institute 67	0.855	Samford 80 - Virginia Military Institute 61	-4
San Jose State 78 - Air Force 69	0.768	San Jose State 83 - Air Force 78	4
Santa Clara 74 - San Diego 62	0.815	Santa Clara 58 - San Diego 60	14
SE Missouri State 72 - Tennessee Martin 73	0.555	SE Missouri State 90 - Tennessee Martin 61	-30
Seattle 63 - Cal State Bakersfield 71	0.737	Seattle 48 - Cal State Bakersfield 51	-5
Seton Hall 70 - Villanova 80	0.809	Seton Hall 70 - Villanova 92	12
Siena 76 - Niagara 66	0.801	Siena 76 - Niagara 70	4
South Alabama 75 - Appalachian State 68	0.719	South Alabama 87 - Appalachian State 74	-6
South Carolina State 72 - Coppin State 64	0.7	South Carolina State 84 - Coppin State 79	3
South Carolina Upstate 67 - Florida Gulf Coast 70	0.63	South Carolina Upstate 89 - Florida Gulf Coast 97	5
South Dakota 78 - Oral Roberts 66	0.806	South Dakota 86 - Oral Roberts 72	-2
Southeast Louisiana 66 - Stephen F Austin 64	0.552	Southeast Louisiana 52 - Stephen F Austin 60	10
Southern 76 - Alabama AM 58	0.924	Southern 77 - Alabama AM 64	5
Southern Miss 66 - Florida Atlantic 69	0.57	Southern Miss 82 - Florida Atlantic 94	9
Southern Utah 70 - Northern Arizona 71	0.52	Southern Utah 84 - Northern Arizona 68	-17
Stony Brook 74 - Binghamton 60	0.875	Stony Brook 76 - Binghamton 55	-7
Tennessee 84 - Missouri 66	0.901	Tennessee 90 - Missouri 70	-2
Tennessee State 74 - Eastern Kentucky 61	0.806	Tennessee State 68 - Eastern Kentucky 66	11
Texas 72 - Kansas State 75	0.592	Texas 61 - Kansas State 64	0
Texas AM 80 - Auburn 76	0.591	Texas AM 81 - Auburn 62	-15
Texas AM CC 72 - Lamar 68	0.623	Texas AM CC 70 - Lamar 63	-3
Texas Pan American 65 - New Mexico State 81	0.892	Texas Pan American 101 - New Mexico State 107	-10
Texas Southern 77 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 58	0.924	Texas Southern 78 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 40	-19
The Citadel 73 - Mercer 81	0.739	The Citadel 78 - Mercer 89	3
Towson 74 - James Madison 61	0.87	Towson 75 - James Madison 65	3
Troy 75 - Coastal Carolina 70	0.626	Troy 87 - Coastal Carolina 78	-4
Tulane 79 - South Florida 74	0.629	Tulane 94 - South Florida 71	-18
UC Irvine 74 - UC Riverside 59	0.83	UC Irvine 79 - UC Riverside 60	-4
UC Santa Barbara 68 - Long Beach State 75	0.704	UC Santa Barbara 48 - Long Beach State 66	11
UCLA 88 - Southern California 77	0.823	UCLA 102 - Southern California 70	-21
UL Monroe 69 - UL Lafayette 73	0.62	UL Monroe 84 - UL Lafayette 85	-3
UMBC 83 - UMass Lowell 72	0.839	UMBC 108 - UMass Lowell 102	5
UMKC 80 - Chicago State 62	0.859	UMKC 84 - Chicago State 65	-1
Utah Valley 71 - Grand Canyon 73	0.549	Utah Valley 71 - Grand Canyon 77	4
Vanderbilt 71 - South Carolina 75	0.605	Vanderbilt 71 - South Carolina 62	-13
Washington 68 - Arizona 84	0.884	Washington 68 - Arizona 76	-8
Washington State 77 - Arizona State 78	0.516	Washington State 86 - Arizona State 71	-16
Weber State 75 - North Dakota 70	0.642	Weber State 68 - North Dakota 77	14
West Virginia 84 - Texas Tech 69	0.869	West Virginia 83 - Texas Tech 74	6
Western Michigan 72 - Eastern Michigan 70	0.554	Western Michigan 88 - Eastern Michigan 80	-6
Wichita State 81 - Northern Iowa 61	0.915	Wichita State 73 - Northern Iowa 44	-9
Winthrop 73 - Liberty 64	0.824	Winthrop 84 - Liberty 67	-8
Wofford 79 - Western Carolina 61	0.897	Wofford 84 - Western Carolina 56	-10
Youngstown State 69 - Northern Kentucky 77	0.758	Youngstown State 81 - Northern Kentucky 77	-12

GAMES OF 2-19

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
American 62 - Holy Cross 66	0.626	American 54 - Holy Cross 69	11
Boston 72 - Bucknell 74	0.595	Boston 66 - Bucknell 86	18
Butler 86 - DePaul 63	0.958	Butler 82 - DePaul 66	7
Creighton 84 - Georgetown 73	0.749	Creighton 87 - Georgetown 70	-6
Denver 77 - IUPUI 67	0.776	Denver 72 - IUPUI 83	21
Detroit 67 - Valparaiso 81	0.87	Detroit 63 - Valparaiso 83	6
Duquesne 72 - George Washington 76	0.63	Duquesne 70 - George Washington 77	3
Georgia Tech 74 - Syracuse 73	0.503	Georgia Tech 71 - Syracuse 65	-5
Illinois State 78 - Loyola Ill 65	0.845	Illinois State 65 - Loyola Ill 63	11
Indiana State 75 - Southern Illinois 73	0.545	Indiana State 68 - Southern Illinois 74	8
Iona 79 - Rider 67	0.834	Iona 85 - Rider 103	30
Lafayette 66 - Lehigh 79	0.799	Lafayette 55 - Lehigh 81	13
Loyola MD 72 - Colgate 64	0.756	Loyola MD 56 - Colgate 66	18
Maine 61 - Albany 74	0.849	Maine 56 - Albany 74	5
Manhattan 73 - Quinnipiac 72	0.537	Manhattan 95 - Quinnipiac 74	-20
Marist 69 - Canisius 77	0.748	Marist 76 - Canisius 74	-10
Minnesota 77 - Michigan 73	0.599	Minnesota 83 - Michigan 78	-1
Oakland 79 - Illinois Chicago 67	0.838	Oakland 87 - Illinois Chicago 75	0
Oregon State 64 - Utah 81	0.886	Oregon State 68 - Utah 67	-18
Saint Peters 70 - Fairfield 61	0.713	Saint Peters 74 - Fairfield 55	-10
San Diego State 78 - Nevada Las Vegas 63	0.867	San Diego State 77 - Nevada Las Vegas 64	2
Temple 75 - Connecticut 72	0.589	Temple 63 - Connecticut 64	4
Western Kentucky 71 - Alabama Birmingham 72	0.528	Western Kentucky 76 - Alabama Birmingham 64	-13
Wisconsin 77 - Maryland 69	0.752	Wisconsin 71 - Maryland 60	-3
Yale 75 - Pennsylvania 66	0.813	Yale 55 - Pennsylvania 71	25

Number of DI Games: 331
Number Correct: 247 = 74.6%
Expected Number Correct: 237.209 = 71.6%
Average Error: 8.68
Average Signed Error: 0.38

WEEK 16 -- 2-20 to 2-26

GAMES OF 2-20

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alcorn State 78 - Alabama AM 54	0.979	Alcorn State 74 - Alabama AM 59	9
Bethune Cookman 64 - Norfolk State 72	0.844	Bethune Cookman 75 - Norfolk State 65	-18
Delaware State 66 - Morgan State 65	0.509	Delaware State 54 - Morgan State 65	12
Florida AM 65 - Hampton 70	0.651	Florida AM 69 - Hampton 76	2
Florida State 90 - Boston College 68	0.887	Florida State 104 - Boston College 72	-10
Georgia Southern 71 - Texas Arlington 76	0.628	Georgia Southern 71 - Texas Arlington 81	5
Georgia State 71 - Texas State 64	0.723	Georgia State 67 - Texas State 51	-9
Howard 58 - North Carolina Central 72	0.858	Howard 59 - North Carolina Central 66	-7
Maryland Eastern Shore 77 - North Carolina AT 59	0.91	Maryland Eastern Shore 106 - North Carolina AT 95	7
Portland 85 - Unranked 58		Portland 96 - Unranked 58
Prairie View 71 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 60	0.793	Prairie View 73 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 55	-7
Savannah State 80 - Coppin State 70	0.786	Savannah State 83 - Coppin State 84	11
South Alabama 71 - Coastal Carolina 70	0.525	South Alabama 77 - Coastal Carolina 81	5
Southern 72 - Alabama State 63	0.78	Southern 79 - Alabama State 73	3
Texas Southern 83 - Mississippi Valley State 62	0.919	Texas Southern 92 - Mississippi Valley State 61	-10
Texas Tech 76 - Iowa State 77	0.517	Texas Tech 80 - Iowa State 82	1
Troy 80 - Appalachian State 69	0.811	Troy 76 - Appalachian State 66	1
Virginia 74 - Miami 64	0.746	Virginia 48 - Miami 54	16
West Virginia 86 - Texas 67	0.913	West Virginia 77 - Texas 62	4

GAMES OF 2-21

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Ball State 75 - Eastern Michigan 69	0.669	Ball State 79 - Eastern Michigan 72	-1
Baylor 84 - Oklahoma 66	0.951	Baylor 60 - Oklahoma 54	12
Belmont 93 - Unranked 52		Belmont 96 - Unranked 45
Bowling Green 67 - Akron 76	0.788	Bowling Green 66 - Akron 65	-10
Buffalo 75 - Kent State 68	0.698	Buffalo 69 - Kent State 77	15
Central Michigan 79 - Northern Illinois 73	0.695	Central Michigan 66 - Northern Illinois 89	29
Dayton 81 - George Mason 68	0.831	Dayton 83 - George Mason 70	0
Detroit 70 - Cleveland State 71	0.51	Detroit 91 - Cleveland State 83	-9
Fairfield 69 - Monmouth 76	0.689	Fairfield 62 - Monmouth 82	13
Florida 80 - South Carolina 68	0.816	Florida 81 - South Carolina 66	-3
Georgia Tech 80 - NC State 72	0.674	Georgia Tech 69 - NC State 71	10
Illinois 72 - Northwestern 74	0.549	Illinois 66 - Northwestern 50	-18
Illinois Chicago 74 - Green Bay 76	0.561	Illinois Chicago 79 - Green Bay 87	6
Iowa 82 - Indiana 81	0.503	Iowa 96 - Indiana 90	-5
La Salle 74 - Rhode Island 76	0.559	La Salle 56 - Rhode Island 67	9
Louisiana State 81 - Auburn 85	0.622	Louisiana State 75 - Auburn 98	19
Marquette 87 - Saint Johns 77	0.737	Marquette 93 - Saint Johns 71	-12
Miami OH 64 - Ohio 75	0.802	Miami OH 62 - Ohio 79	6
Mississippi State 78 - Mississippi 77	0.538	Mississippi State 82 - Mississippi 87	6
Missouri 68 - Kentucky 88	0.908	Missouri 62 - Kentucky 72	-10
New Mexico 73 - Colorado State 72	0.546	New Mexico 56 - Colorado State 68	13
Northern Kentucky 72 - Wright State 69	0.619	Northern Kentucky 83 - Wright State 76	-4
Oakland 84 - Youngstown State 65	0.912	Oakland 101 - Youngstown State 72	-10
Penn State 73 - Purdue 82	0.747	Penn State 70 - Purdue 74	-5
Richmond 77 - Davidson 73	0.612	Richmond 84 - Davidson 76	-4
Toledo 78 - Western Michigan 71	0.674	Toledo 56 - Western Michigan 61	12
Tulane 72 - East Carolina 73	0.507	Tulane 73 - East Carolina 76	2
Valparaiso 79 - Milwaukee 58	0.953	Valparaiso 67 - Milwaukee 61	15
Virginia Tech 81 - Clemson 77	0.606	Virginia Tech 71 - Clemson 70	3
Wichita State 86 - Evansville 61	0.951	Wichita State 109 - Evansville 83	-1

GAMES OF 2-22

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 66 - Texas AM CC 69	0.602	Abilene Christian 44 - Texas AM CC 56	9
Air Force 75 - Nevada Las Vegas 72	0.605	Air Force 81 - Nevada Las Vegas 58	-20
Arkansas 80 - Texas AM 72	0.722	Arkansas 86 - Texas AM 77	-1
Army 72 - Boston 75	0.585	Army 73 - Boston 62	-14
Bradley 71 - Missouri State 73	0.575	Bradley 77 - Missouri State 68	-11
Bucknell 86 - Lafayette 60	0.977	Bucknell 94 - Lafayette 64	-4
Cal State Fullerton 68 - UC Irvine 72	0.627	Cal State Fullerton 56 - UC Irvine 54	-6
California 68 - Oregon 74	0.657	California 65 - Oregon 68	-3
Creighton 83 - Providence 71	0.792	Creighton 66 - Providence 68	14
Denver 77 - Omaha 71	0.677	Denver 83 - Omaha 84	7
Duquesne 72 - Fordham 71	0.528	Duquesne 52 - Fordham 70	19
East Tennessee State 73 - Furman 65	0.703	East Tennessee State 93 - Furman 81	-4
Georgetown 84 - DePaul 67	0.863	Georgetown 65 - DePaul 67	19
Hartford 68 - Binghamton 67	0.5	Hartford 76 - Binghamton 69	-6
Holy Cross 67 - Loyola MD 63	0.645	Holy Cross 63 - Loyola MD 62	3
Houston 77 - Connecticut 68	0.726	Houston 75 - Connecticut 70	4
Illinois State 79 - Southern Illinois 63	0.891	Illinois State 50 - Southern Illinois 46	12
Indiana State 69 - Northern Iowa 71	0.546	Indiana State 69 - Northern Iowa 59	-12
Kansas 86 - Texas Christian 71	0.94	Kansas 87 - Texas Christian 68	-4
Kansas State 81 - Oklahoma State 80	0.515	Kansas State 68 - Oklahoma State 80	13
Lehigh 77 - Colgate 64	0.849	Lehigh 87 - Colgate 69	-5
Loyola Ill 83 - Drake 68	0.887	Loyola Ill 80 - Drake 65	0
Maryland 79 - Minnesota 74	0.684	Maryland 75 - Minnesota 89	19
Mercer 69 - UNC Greensboro 68	0.505	Mercer 66 - UNC Greensboro 72	7
Navy 73 - American 58	0.876	Navy 58 - American 74	31
Nevada 79 - Boise State 72	0.7	Nevada 85 - Boise State 77	-1
North Carolina 81 - Louisville 77	0.59	North Carolina 74 - Louisville 63	-7
Northwestern State 70 - Lamar 73	0.576	Northwestern State 68 - Lamar 88	17
Oral Roberts 68 - North Dakota State 73	0.62	Oral Roberts 80 - North Dakota State 82	-3
Rider 75 - Manhattan 66	0.737	Rider 93 - Manhattan 82	-2
Rutgers 68 - Michigan 77	0.736	Rutgers 64 - Michigan 68	-5
Saint Josephs 73 - Saint Bonaventure 77	0.611	Saint Josephs 77 - Saint Bonaventure 83	2
Samford 71 - Chattanooga 73	0.555	Samford 72 - Chattanooga 68	-6
San Diego State 75 - Fresno State 67	0.709	San Diego State 55 - Fresno State 63	16
San Jose State 74 - Utah State 70	0.607	San Jose State 75 - Utah State 81	10
Seton Hall 77 - Xavier 76	0.527	Seton Hall 71 - Xavier 64	-6
Southeast Louisiana 74 - Central Arkansas 66	0.705	Southeast Louisiana 87 - Central Arkansas 70	-9
Stanford 79 - Oregon State 62	0.901	Stanford 79 - Oregon State 66	4
Syracuse 75 - Duke 81	0.63	Syracuse 78 - Duke 75	-9
Temple 73 - Central Florida 72	0.531	Temple 69 - Central Florida 71	3
Tennessee 78 - Vanderbilt 72	0.657	Tennessee 56 - Vanderbilt 67	17
The Citadel 78 - Western Carolina 74	0.626	The Citadel 80 - Western Carolina 84	8
UMass Lowell 70 - New Hampshire 75	0.664	UMass Lowell 67 - New Hampshire 78	6
UMBC 74 - Stony Brook 73	0.559	UMBC 65 - Stony Brook 52	-12
Vermont 73 - Albany 62	0.887	Vermont 62 - Albany 50	-1
Villanova 81 - Butler 70	0.833	Villanova 66 - Butler 74	19
Virginia Commonwealth 84 - Saint Louis 57	0.981	Virginia Commonwealth 64 - Saint Louis 50	13
Virginia Military Institute 69 - Wofford 78	0.716	Virginia Military Institute 63 - Wofford 81	9
Wake Forest 85 - Pittsburgh 78	0.671	Wake Forest 63 - Pittsburgh 59	3

GAMES OF 2-23

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 74 - Georgia 71	0.588	Alabama 55 - Georgia 60	8
Arizona 81 - Southern California 69	0.834	Arizona 90 - Southern California 77	-1
Arizona State 77 - UCLA 91	0.827	Arizona State 75 - UCLA 87	-2
Cal State Bakersfield 75 - UMKC 62	0.815	Cal State Bakersfield 71 - UMKC 62	4
Central Connecticut State 69 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 62	0.703	Central Connecticut State 62 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 53	-2
Charlotte 75 - Western Kentucky 73	0.576	Charlotte 83 - Western Kentucky 77	-4
Cincinnati 81 - Memphis 66	0.881	Cincinnati 87 - Memphis 74	2
College of Charleston 77 - Delaware 57	0.941	College of Charleston 78 - Delaware 65	7
Colorado 77 - Utah 76	0.546	Colorado 81 - Utah 86	6
Drexel 73 - James Madison 70	0.59	Drexel 64 - James Madison 70	9
Eastern Kentucky 66 - Jacksonville State 69	0.578	Eastern Kentucky 68 - Jacksonville State 65	-6
Eastern Washington 75 - Weber State 70	0.666	Eastern Washington 82 - Weber State 72	-5
Elon 73 - Northeastern 67	0.658	Elon 104 - Northeastern 105	7
Florida Atlantic 69 - Texas El Paso 70	0.52	Florida Atlantic 55 - Texas El Paso 60	4
Florida Gulf Coast 83 - Stetson 60	0.964	Florida Gulf Coast 80 - Stetson 70	13
Florida International 69 - Texas San Antonio 68	0.54	Florida International 67 - Texas San Antonio 69	3
Gardner Webb 70 - UNC Asheville 74	0.659	Gardner Webb 81 - UNC Asheville 76	-9
George Washington 76 - Massachusetts 70	0.666	George Washington 83 - Massachusetts 67	-10
Grand Canyon 80 - Chicago State 57	0.92	Grand Canyon 82 - Chicago State 59	0
High Point 71 - Campbell 63	0.734	High Point 59 - Campbell 49	-2
Idaho 77 - Idaho State 62	0.886	Idaho 69 - Idaho State 61	7
Incarnate Word 77 - Nicholls State 71	0.674	Incarnate Word 68 - Nicholls State 77	15
IUPUI 74 - IPFW 77	0.558	IUPUI 83 - IPFW 82	-4
Kennesaw St 71 - Lipscomb 75	0.626	Kennesaw St 74 - Lipscomb 85	7
Liberty 79 - Longwood 57	0.972	Liberty 61 - Longwood 45	6
Long Beach State 80 - Cal Poly 68	0.821	Long Beach State 71 - Cal Poly 78	19
Loyola Marymount 71 - San Francisco 73	0.573	Loyola Marymount 53 - San Francisco 51	-4
Marist 72 - Quinnipiac 73	0.517	Marist 87 - Quinnipiac 74	-14
Mcneese State 68 - Houston Baptist 73	0.64	Mcneese State 79 - Houston Baptist 81	-3
Michigan State 79 - Nebraska 71	0.723	Michigan State 88 - Nebraska 72	-8
Morehead State 76 - Tennessee Tech 68	0.73	Morehead State 73 - Tennessee Tech 68	3
Mt St Marys 71 - LIU Brooklyn 63	0.725	Mt St Marys 58 - LIU Brooklyn 62	12
New Mexico State 82 - Utah Valley 64	0.904	New Mexico State 72 - Utah Valley 84	30
New Orleans 68 - Stephen F Austin 61	0.689	New Orleans 82 - Stephen F Austin 65	-10
NJ Tech 68 - South Carolina Upstate 70	0.556	NJ Tech 88 - South Carolina Upstate 87	-3
North Florida 74 - Jacksonville 67	0.676	North Florida 73 - Jacksonville 69	3
North Texas 64 - Louisiana Tech 78	0.865	North Texas 67 - Louisiana Tech 85	4
Ohio State 70 - Wisconsin 77	0.712	Ohio State 83 - Wisconsin 73	-17
Old Dominion 77 - Marshall 71	0.655	Old Dominion 86 - Marshall 65	-15
Pepperdine 60 - Saint Marys 83	0.912	Pepperdine 49 - Saint Marys 78	6
Portland 69 - Brigham Young 81	0.781	Portland 78 - Brigham Young 97	7
Portland State 84 - Southern Utah 69	0.841	Portland State 93 - Southern Utah 86	8
Radford 74 - Presbyterian 56	0.935	Radford 59 - Presbyterian 57	16
Rice 82 - Southern Miss 62	0.906	Rice 72 - Southern Miss 71	19
Robert Morris 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 66	0.634	Robert Morris 77 - Fairleigh Dickinson 76	3
Sacramento State 73 - Northern Arizona 63	0.777	Sacramento State 69 - Northern Arizona 73	14
Saint Francis Penn 76 - Sacred Heart 71	0.668	Saint Francis Penn 73 - Sacred Heart 64	-4
San Diego 59 - Gonzaga 86	0.982	San Diego 38 - Gonzaga 96	31
Santa Clara 76 - Pacific 63	0.793	Santa Clara 69 - Pacific 68	12
SE Missouri State 74 - Murray State 72	0.527	SE Missouri State 82 - Murray State 69	-11
Tennessee Martin 81 - Austin Peay 69	0.775	Tennessee Martin 76 - Austin Peay 72	8
Texas Pan American 74 - Seattle 73	0.502	Texas Pan American 77 - Seattle 86	10
Tulsa 82 - South Florida 66	0.865	Tulsa 82 - South Florida 68	2
UC Davis 77 - Cal State Northridge 70	0.682	UC Davis 96 - Cal State Northridge 85	-4
UC Santa Barbara 64 - UC Riverside 65	0.531	UC Santa Barbara 68 - UC Riverside 61	-8
UNC Wilmington 80 - Towson 69	0.799	UNC Wilmington 83 - Towson 78	6
Wagner 72 - Bryant 65	0.773	Wagner 69 - Bryant 66	4
Western Illinois 65 - South Dakota 74	0.768	Western Illinois 81 - South Dakota 92	2
William and Mary 81 - Hofstra 73	0.696	William and Mary 82 - Hofstra 96	22
Winthrop 83 - Charleston Southern 63	0.995	Winthrop 86 - Charleston Southern 72	6

GAMES OF 2-24

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Buffalo 72 - Akron 71	0.504	Buffalo 83 - Akron 89	7
California 81 - Oregon State 56	0.98	California 76 - Oregon State 46	-5
Canisius 76 - Fairfield 69	0.668	Canisius 55 - Fairfield 58	10
Columbia 65 - Princeton 74	0.824	Columbia 45 - Princeton 64	10
Cornell 69 - Pennsylvania 74	0.67	Cornell 66 - Pennsylvania 69	-2
Dartmouth 74 - Brown 72	0.588	Dartmouth 75 - Brown 80	7
Davidson 71 - Dayton 76	0.67	Davidson 82 - Dayton 89	2
Green Bay 75 - Oakland 74	0.501	Green Bay 72 - Oakland 85	14
Harvard 75 - Yale 67	0.816	Harvard 77 - Yale 64	-5
Iona 80 - Manhattan 66	0.829	Iona 72 - Manhattan 51	-7
Milwaukee 75 - Detroit 69	0.67	Milwaukee 74 - Detroit 81	13
Monmouth 79 - Siena 65	0.875	Monmouth 77 - Siena 73	10
Niagara 62 - Saint Peters 70	0.695	Niagara 53 - Saint Peters 66	5
Northern Kentucky 76 - Illinois Chicago 67	0.822	Northern Kentucky 90 - Illinois Chicago 82	1
Toledo 84 - Central Michigan 76	0.69	Toledo 87 - Central Michigan 66	-13
Wright State 69 - Valparaiso 72	0.578	Wright State 74 - Valparaiso 84	7

GAMES OF 2-25

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 62 - Prairie View 72	0.799	Alabama AM 87 - Prairie View 74	-23
Alabama State 63 - Texas Southern 73	0.767	Alabama State 73 - Texas Southern 86	3
Albany 78 - Hartford 57	0.941	Albany 80 - Hartford 62	3
Appalachian State 73 - UL Monroe 67	0.687	Appalachian State 64 - UL Monroe 75	17
Arizona 81 - UCLA 78	0.591	Arizona 72 - UCLA 77	8
Arkansas Little Rock 67 - Georgia State 71	0.621	Arkansas Little Rock 54 - Georgia State 71	13
Arkansas Pine Bluff 66 - Grambling State 65	0.51	Arkansas Pine Bluff 58 - Grambling State 78	21
Arkansas State 76 - Georgia Southern 68	0.734	Arkansas State 60 - Georgia Southern 72	20
Auburn 82 - Arkansas 83	0.542	Auburn 68 - Arkansas 79	10
Belmont 75 - Tennessee State 62	0.862	Belmont 68 - Tennessee State 63	8
Binghamton 71 - Maine 61	0.783	Binghamton 71 - Maine 72	11
Boise State 79 - San Jose State 68	0.819	Boise State 85 - San Jose State 78	4
Boston College 75 - Virginia Tech 83	0.699	Boston College 75 - Virginia Tech 91	8
Bryant 77 - Central Connecticut State 63	0.892	Bryant 91 - Central Connecticut State 77	0
Bucknell 76 - Navy 63	0.832	Bucknell 82 - Navy 60	-9
Cal State Bakersfield 80 - Chicago State 53	0.961	Cal State Bakersfield 69 - Chicago State 49	7
Campbell 68 - Radford 66	0.556	Campbell 61 - Radford 58	-1
Central Arkansas 68 - Stephen F Austin 72	0.594	Central Arkansas 85 - Stephen F Austin 90	1
Charlotte 81 - Marshall 83	0.567	Charlotte 89 - Marshall 93	2
Chattanooga 72 - Mercer 63	0.761	Chattanooga 54 - Mercer 64	19
Clemson 78 - Florida State 80	0.555	Clemson 74 - Florida State 76	0
Cleveland State 74 - Youngstown State 67	0.723	Cleveland State 69 - Youngstown State 55	-7
Coastal Carolina 76 - UL Lafayette 73	0.58	Coastal Carolina 77 - UL Lafayette 79	5
Colgate 76 - Lafayette 64	0.823	Colgate 69 - Lafayette 73	16
College of Charleston 81 - Drexel 62	0.944	College of Charleston 80 - Drexel 67	6
Colorado State 71 - San Diego State 67	0.609	Colorado State 56 - San Diego State 55	3
Columbia 71 - Pennsylvania 72	0.529	Columbia 70 - Pennsylvania 67	-4
Connecticut 67 - Southern Methodist 75	0.717	Connecticut 61 - Southern Methodist 69	0
Cornell 62 - Princeton 76	0.909	Cornell 60 - Princeton 75	1
Dartmouth 67 - Yale 74	0.74	Dartmouth 86 - Yale 99	6
Delaware State 68 - Maryland Eastern Shore 69	0.523	Delaware State 64 - Maryland Eastern Shore 65	0
DePaul 71 - Seton Hall 80	0.741	DePaul 79 - Seton Hall 82	-6
Drake 75 - Bradley 73	0.555	Drake 74 - Bradley 82	10
Eastern Kentucky 69 - Tennessee Tech 68	0.517	Eastern Kentucky 75 - Tennessee Tech 71	-3
Eastern Michigan 71 - Northern Illinois 66	0.663	Eastern Michigan 84 - Northern Illinois 68	-11
Eastern Washington 82 - Idaho State 62	0.955	Eastern Washington 89 - Idaho State 77	8
Elon 76 - Delaware 61	0.854	Elon 81 - Delaware 59	-7
Evansville 76 - Indiana State 69	0.707	Evansville 65 - Indiana State 63	5
Florida Atlantic 72 - Texas San Antonio 67	0.644	Florida Atlantic 73 - Texas San Antonio 66	-2
Florida International 67 - Texas El Paso 71	0.616	Florida International 76 - Texas El Paso 90	10
Fordham 70 - Richmond 72	0.575	Fordham 48 - Richmond 70	20
Furman 76 - Wofford 67	0.719	Furman 78 - Wofford 69	0
Georgia 87 - Louisiana State 70	0.905	Georgia 82 - Louisiana State 80	15
Gonzaga 90 - Brigham Young 68	0.935	Gonzaga 71 - Brigham Young 79	30
Grand Canyon 75 - UMKC 67	0.711	Grand Canyon 84 - UMKC 77	1
Harvard 82 - Brown 65	0.958	Harvard 77 - Brown 58	-2
Hawaii 73 - Cal State Fullerton 67	0.684	Hawaii 64 - Cal State Fullerton 58	0
High Point 71 - Gardner Webb 70	0.509	High Point 86 - Gardner Webb 88	3
Holy Cross 68 - Boston 67	0.529	Holy Cross 68 - Boston 71	4
Idaho 69 - Weber State 70	0.512	Idaho 83 - Weber State 78	-6
Indiana 77 - Northwestern 76	0.528	Indiana 63 - Northwestern 62	0
Iowa State 76 - Baylor 75	0.51	Iowa State 72 - Baylor 69	-2
IUPUI 71 - South Dakota 74	0.604	IUPUI 85 - South Dakota 92	4
James Madison 72 - Hofstra 71	0.5	James Madison 66 - Hofstra 71	6
Kent State 70 - Ohio 72	0.548	Kent State 70 - Ohio 67	-5
Kentucky 82 - Florida 78	0.613	Kentucky 76 - Florida 66	-6
Lamar 72 - Houston Baptist 70	0.567	Lamar 68 - Houston Baptist 75	9
Lehigh 81 - Army 67	0.844	Lehigh 83 - Army 69	0
Longwood 70 - Charleston Southern 75	0.689	Longwood 78 - Charleston Southern 86	3
Loyola MD 73 - American 61	0.858	Loyola MD 62 - American 64	14
Maryland 86 - Iowa 73	0.825	Maryland 69 - Iowa 83	27
Miami 74 - Duke 77	0.579	Miami 55 - Duke 50	-8
Miami OH 71 - Bowling Green 70	0.536	Miami OH 54 - Bowling Green 70	17
Michigan 75 - Purdue 78	0.567	Michigan 82 - Purdue 70	-15
Minnesota 82 - Penn State 72	0.796	Minnesota 81 - Penn State 71	0
Mississippi 83 - Missouri 69	0.837	Mississippi 80 - Missouri 77	11
Mississippi Valley State 67 - Jackson State 70	0.578	Mississippi Valley State 70 - Jackson State 67	-6
Missouri State 68 - Wichita State 82	0.873	Missouri State 67 - Wichita State 86	5
Montana State 71 - Montana 70	0.516	Montana State 78 - Montana 69	-8
Morehead State 73 - Jacksonville State 68	0.673	Morehead State 61 - Jacksonville State 70	14
Morgan State 65 - Hampton 63	0.541	Morgan State 77 - Hampton 70	-5
Mt St Marys 77 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 54	0.977	Mt St Marys 77 - Saint Francis Brooklyn 62	8
NC State 69 - Virginia 80	0.762	NC State 55 - Virginia 70	4
Nevada Las Vegas 70 - Nevada 80	0.766	Nevada Las Vegas 58 - Nevada 94	26
New Hampshire 76 - UMBC 70	0.679	New Hampshire 94 - UMBC 90	2
New Mexico State 79 - Seattle 61	0.924	New Mexico State 86 - Seattle 53	-15
Nicholls State 67 - Southeast Louisiana 70	0.575	Nicholls State 77 - Southeast Louisiana 71	-9
Norfolk State 72 - Howard 58	0.882	Norfolk State 73 - Howard 65	6
North Carolina AT 69 - Savannah State 78	0.748	North Carolina AT 91 - Savannah State 110	10
North Carolina Central 80 - Bethune Cookman 55	0.989	North Carolina Central 78 - Bethune Cookman 63	10
North Texas 72 - Southern Miss 66	0.659	North Texas 53 - Southern Miss 76	29
Northern Colorado 65 - North Dakota 73	0.691	Northern Colorado 81 - North Dakota 84	-5
Northern Iowa 64 - Illinois State 70	0.679	Northern Iowa 42 - Illinois State 63	15
Northwestern State 66 - New Orleans 74	0.745	Northwestern State 83 - New Orleans 82	-9
Oklahoma 75 - Kansas State 79	0.643	Oklahoma 81 - Kansas State 51	-34
Oklahoma State 85 - Texas Tech 75	0.76	Oklahoma State 80 - Texas Tech 63	-7
Old Dominion 72 - Western Kentucky 60	0.806	Old Dominion 67 - Western Kentucky 53	-2
Omaha 73 - North Dakota State 74	0.507	Omaha 96 - North Dakota State 92	-5
Pacific 71 - Loyola Marymount 73	0.545	Pacific 66 - Loyola Marymount 67	-1
Pepperdine 69 - San Francisco 79	0.748	Pepperdine 65 - San Francisco 76	1
Pittsburgh 75 - North Carolina 85	0.691	Pittsburgh 67 - North Carolina 85	8
Portland State 79 - Northern Arizona 67	0.783	Portland State 84 - Northern Arizona 72	0
Presbyterian 57 - Winthrop 81	0.992	Presbyterian 56 - Winthrop 93	13
Providence 78 - Marquette 77	0.54	Providence 73 - Marquette 69	-3
Rhode Island 72 - Virginia Commonwealth 73	0.514	Rhode Island 69 - Virginia Commonwealth 59	-11
Rice 73 - Louisiana Tech 74	0.527	Rice 88 - Louisiana Tech 81	-8
Robert Morris 71 - Sacred Heart 66	0.675	Robert Morris 79 - Sacred Heart 72	-2
Sacramento State 77 - Southern Utah 65	0.851	Sacramento State 86 - Southern Utah 76	2
Saint Bonaventure 83 - Duquesne 68	0.862	Saint Bonaventure 80 - Duquesne 77	12
Saint Francis Penn 75 - Fairleigh Dickinson 71	0.633	Saint Francis Penn 70 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64	-2
Saint Johns 79 - Georgetown 80	0.523	Saint Johns 86 - Georgetown 80	-7
Saint Louis 69 - Saint Josephs 72	0.599	Saint Louis 61 - Saint Josephs 60	-4
Saint Marys 77 - Santa Clara 58	0.881	Saint Marys 70 - Santa Clara 56	5
Sam Houston State 72 - Abilene Christian 62	0.779	Sam Houston State 81 - Abilene Christian 84	13
Samford 91 - The Citadel 74	0.913	Samford 96 - The Citadel 102	23
San Diego 73 - Portland 65	0.701	San Diego 85 - Portland 82	5
SE Missouri State 79 - Austin Peay 70	0.719	SE Missouri State 79 - Austin Peay 88	18
SIU Edwardsville 66 - Eastern Illinois 73	0.725	SIU Edwardsville 78 - Eastern Illinois 59	-26
South Carolina 78 - Tennessee 72	0.682	South Carolina 82 - Tennessee 55	-21
South Carolina State 73 - Florida AM 66	0.73	South Carolina State 75 - Florida AM 64	-4
South Dakota State 73 - Denver 71	0.549	South Dakota State 88 - Denver 64	-22
Southern 67 - Alcorn State 68	0.516	Southern 67 - Alcorn State 68	0
Southern Illinois 72 - Loyola Ill 73	0.51	Southern Illinois 72 - Loyola Ill 70	-3
Stanford 67 - Oregon 79	0.785	Stanford 73 - Oregon 75	-10
Temple 85 - Tulane 70	0.878	Temple 86 - Tulane 76	5
Tennessee Martin 75 - Murray State 72	0.594	Tennessee Martin 83 - Murray State 76	-4
Texas 71 - Kansas 83	0.876	Texas 67 - Kansas 77	-2
Texas AM 73 - Alabama 70	0.576	Texas AM 56 - Alabama 53	0
Texas AM CC 76 - Mcneese State 62	0.869	Texas AM CC 81 - Mcneese State 70	3
Texas Arlington 81 - South Alabama 63	0.875	Texas Arlington 86 - South Alabama 75	7
Texas Christian 75 - West Virginia 81	0.676	Texas Christian 60 - West Virginia 61	-5
Texas Pan American 75 - Utah Valley 77	0.541	Texas Pan American 68 - Utah Valley 88	18
Texas State 71 - Troy 68	0.588	Texas State 63 - Troy 59	-1
UC Davis 75 - Long Beach State 71	0.63	UC Davis 75 - Long Beach State 71	0
UC Irvine 79 - Cal State Northridge 67	0.773	UC Irvine 83 - Cal State Northridge 80	9
UC Riverside 70 - Cal Poly 65	0.642	UC Riverside 77 - Cal Poly 84	12
UNC Asheville 74 - Liberty 62	0.838	UNC Asheville 63 - Liberty 45	-6
UNC Greensboro 81 - Virginia Military Institute 61	0.901	UNC Greensboro 74 - Virginia Military Institute 67	13
UNC Wilmington 81 - Northeastern 67	0.849	UNC Wilmington 74 - Northeastern 65	5
Utah State 77 - Air Force 68	0.778	Utah State 89 - Air Force 58	-22
Vanderbilt 78 - Mississippi State 70	0.705	Vanderbilt 77 - Mississippi State 48	-21
Vermont 75 - Stony Brook 62	0.891	Vermont 66 - Stony Brook 51	-2
Villanova 83 - Creighton 73	0.789	Villanova 79 - Creighton 63	-6
Wagner 68 - LIU Brooklyn 63	0.639	Wagner 84 - LIU Brooklyn 88	9
Western Carolina 58 - East Tennessee State 77	0.92	Western Carolina 52 - East Tennessee State 68	-3
Western Illinois 69 - IPFW 77	0.717	Western Illinois 92 - IPFW 96	-4
Western Michigan 75 - Ball State 73	0.559	Western Michigan 80 - Ball State 55	-23
William and Mary 76 - Towson 74	0.557	William and Mary 83 - Towson 79	-2
Wyoming 77 - New Mexico 76	0.526	Wyoming 82 - New Mexico 71	-10

GAMES OF 2-26

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 64 - Middle Tennessee 74	0.738	Alabama Birmingham 64 - Middle Tennessee 66	-8
Arizona State 77 - Southern California 82	0.628	Arizona State 83 - Southern California 82	-6
Canisius 68 - Saint Peters 67	0.509	Canisius 65 - Saint Peters 72	8
Central Florida 67 - Cincinnati 74	0.705	Central Florida 53 - Cincinnati 49	-11
George Washington 75 - George Mason 74	0.511	George Washington 83 - George Mason 74	-8
Green Bay 84 - Detroit 68	0.877	Green Bay 89 - Detroit 81	8
Iona 74 - Monmouth 77	0.583	Iona 73 - Monmouth 79	3
Louisville 85 - Syracuse 69	0.81	Louisville 88 - Syracuse 68	-4
Massachusetts 78 - La Salle 77	0.504	Massachusetts 84 - La Salle 71	-12
Memphis 74 - Houston 75	0.529	Memphis 71 - Houston 72	0
Michigan State 70 - Wisconsin 74	0.615	Michigan State 84 - Wisconsin 74	-14
Milwaukee 64 - Oakland 75	0.781	Milwaukee 75 - Oakland 86	0
Nebraska 76 - Illinois 73	0.593	Nebraska 57 - Illinois 73	19
Niagara 71 - Fairfield 72	0.531	Niagara 58 - Fairfield 62	3
Northern Kentucky 68 - Valparaiso 71	0.595	Northern Kentucky 82 - Valparaiso 78	-7
Notre Dame 80 - Georgia Tech 67	0.789	Notre Dame 64 - Georgia Tech 60	9
Quinnipiac 73 - Rider 74	0.506	Quinnipiac 82 - Rider 99	16
Siena 78 - Marist 62	0.913	Siena 80 - Marist 64	0
Tulsa 75 - East Carolina 65	0.752	Tulsa 74 - East Carolina 66	2
Washington State 80 - Washington 75	0.613	Washington State 79 - Washington 71	-3
Wright State 78 - Illinois Chicago 68	0.82	Wright State 87 - Illinois Chicago 49	-28
Xavier 77 - Butler 76	0.511	Xavier 79 - Butler 88	10

Number of DI Games: 333
Number Correct: 226 = 67.8%
Expected Number Correct: 235.448 = 70.7%
Average Error: 8.34
Average Signed Error: 2.09

WEEK 17 -- 2-27 to 3-5

GAMES OF 2-27

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama AM 59 - Texas Southern 78	0.892	Alabama AM 64 - Texas Southern 74	-9
Alabama State 68 - Prairie View 67	0.508	Alabama State 58 - Prairie View 77	20
Appalachian State 74 - UL Lafayette 79	0.639	Appalachian State 62 - UL Lafayette 77	10
Arkansas Little Rock 68 - Georgia Southern 72	0.63	Arkansas Little Rock 56 - Georgia Southern 54	-6
Arkansas Pine Bluff 61 - Jackson State 64	0.586	Arkansas Pine Bluff 51 - Jackson State 62	8
Arkansas State 72 - Georgia State 68	0.61	Arkansas State 78 - Georgia State 67	-7
Baylor 76 - West Virginia 75	0.542	Baylor 71 - West Virginia 62	-8
Coastal Carolina 74 - UL Monroe 63	0.807	Coastal Carolina 77 - UL Monroe 72	6
Florida Gulf Coast 82 - Stetson 60	0.963	Florida Gulf Coast 87 - Stetson 57	-8
Hampton 66 - Norfolk State 65	0.555	Hampton 63 - Norfolk State 59	-3
Howard 66 - Maryland Eastern Shore 68	0.559	Howard 79 - Maryland Eastern Shore 69	-12
Kansas 90 - Oklahoma 70	0.947	Kansas 73 - Oklahoma 63	10
Lipscomb 79 - NJ Tech 64	0.897	Lipscomb 97 - NJ Tech 66	-16
Mercer 74 - Samford 69	0.686	Mercer 88 - Samford 79	-4
Mississippi Valley State 69 - Grambling State 70	0.525	Mississippi Valley State 84 - Grambling State 80	-5
Morgan State 70 - Coppin State 60	0.774	Morgan State 71 - Coppin State 66	5
North Carolina AT 67 - Bethune Cookman 70	0.618	North Carolina AT 70 - Bethune Cookman 73	0
North Carolina Central 82 - Savannah State 65	0.925	North Carolina Central 73 - Savannah State 74	18
North Florida 74 - Jacksonville 67	0.695	North Florida 77 - Jacksonville 74	4
South Carolina Upstate 74 - Kennesaw St 68	0.711	South Carolina Upstate 78 - Kennesaw St 80	8
Texas Arlington 81 - Troy 68	0.845	Texas Arlington 82 - Troy 67	-2
Texas State 71 - South Alabama 64	0.717	Texas State 90 - South Alabama 64	-19
The Citadel 72 - Chattanooga 84	0.788	The Citadel 85 - Chattanooga 76	-21
UNC Greensboro 70 - East Tennessee State 72	0.563	UNC Greensboro 72 - East Tennessee State 66	-8
Virginia 74 - North Carolina 75	0.515	Virginia 53 - North Carolina 43	-11
Virginia Tech 76 - Miami 75	0.521	Virginia Tech 66 - Miami 61	-4
Western Carolina 69 - Virginia Military Institute 66	0.592	Western Carolina 81 - Virginia Military Institute 68	-10

GAMES OF 2-28

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 80 - Miami OH 59	0.979	Akron 75 - Miami OH 79	25
Army 74 - American 66	0.743	Army 74 - American 58	-8
Boise State 77 - Fresno State 72	0.669	Boise State 67 - Fresno State 74	12
Bowling Green 71 - Kent State 72	0.544	Bowling Green 67 - Kent State 74	6
Campbell 73 - Presbyterian 57	0.916	Campbell 81 - Presbyterian 62	-3
Central Michigan 78 - Eastern Michigan 77	0.53	Central Michigan 81 - Eastern Michigan 109	29
Charleston Southern 79 - Longwood 66	0.924	Charleston Southern 79 - Longwood 74	8
Colorado State 79 - Wyoming 69	0.804	Colorado State 78 - Wyoming 76	8
Creighton 88 - Saint Johns 74	0.799	Creighton 82 - Saint Johns 68	0
Davidson 77 - Saint Bonaventure 74	0.6	Davidson 68 - Saint Bonaventure 63	-2
Duke 82 - Florida State 78	0.591	Duke 75 - Florida State 70	-1
Georgia Tech 75 - Pittsburgh 72	0.564	Georgia Tech 61 - Pittsburgh 52	-6
Iowa State 84 - Oklahoma State 81	0.585	Iowa State 86 - Oklahoma State 83	0
Kentucky 85 - Vanderbilt 71	0.817	Kentucky 73 - Vanderbilt 67	8
Loyola MD 76 - Lafayette 64	0.822	Loyola MD 67 - Lafayette 64	9
Missouri 70 - Texas AM 75	0.654	Missouri 43 - Texas AM 60	12
Northern Illinois 69 - Western Michigan 70	0.502	Northern Illinois 56 - Western Michigan 70	13
Ohio 76 - Buffalo 69	0.688	Ohio 79 - Buffalo 83	11
Penn State 78 - Ohio State 76	0.564	Penn State 70 - Ohio State 71	3
Providence 82 - DePaul 65	0.884	Providence 73 - DePaul 64	8
Purdue 85 - Indiana 72	0.833	Purdue 86 - Indiana 75	2
Rutgers 70 - Maryland 78	0.773	Rutgers 59 - Maryland 79	12
Seton Hall 79 - Georgetown 74	0.653	Seton Hall 62 - Georgetown 59	2
South Carolina 82 - Mississippi State 67	0.828	South Carolina 63 - Mississippi State 57	9
Toledo 77 - Ball State 71	0.651	Toledo 74 - Ball State 82	14

GAMES OF 3-1

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Abilene Christian 73 - Incarnate Word 66	0.697	Abilene Christian 75 - Incarnate Word 89	21
Alabama 77 - Mississippi 73	0.62	Alabama 70 - Mississippi 55	-11
Albany 78 - Hartford 58	0.941	Albany 100 - Hartford 71	-9
Clemson 85 - NC State 75	0.745	Clemson 78 - NC State 74	6
Dayton 76 - Virginia Commonwealth 71	0.684	Dayton 79 - Virginia Commonwealth 72	-2
East Carolina 67 - Connecticut 73	0.677	East Carolina 66 - Connecticut 62	-10
Florida 85 - Arkansas 72	0.836	Florida 78 - Arkansas 65	0
Fordham 69 - George Washington 70	0.522	Fordham 66 - George Washington 67	0
George Mason 83 - Duquesne 70	0.813	George Mason 63 - Duquesne 62	12
Georgia 84 - Auburn 75	0.742	Georgia 79 - Auburn 78	8
Houston Baptist 71 - Texas AM CC 69	0.551	Houston Baptist 94 - Texas AM CC 80	-12
Illinois 75 - Michigan State 74	0.537	Illinois 73 - Michigan State 70	-2
LIU Brooklyn 70 - Robert Morris 63	0.722	LIU Brooklyn 68 - Robert Morris 69	8
Louisiana State 76 - Tennessee 84	0.709	Louisiana State 92 - Tennessee 82	-18
Massachusetts 74 - Richmond 77	0.571	Massachusetts 64 - Richmond 75	8
Mt St Marys 75 - Sacred Heart 64	0.862	Mt St Marys 76 - Sacred Heart 73	8
Nevada Las Vegas 70 - Utah State 75	0.618	Nevada Las Vegas 66 - Utah State 59	-12
New Hampshire 76 - UMBC 70	0.69	New Hampshire 74 - UMBC 65	-3
Northwestern 74 - Michigan 73	0.522	Northwestern 67 - Michigan 65	-1
Notre Dame 89 - Boston College 68	0.956	Notre Dame 82 - Boston College 66	5
Saint Francis Penn 76 - Bryant 70	0.689	Saint Francis Penn 100 - Bryant 78	-16
Saint Josephs 68 - Rhode Island 78	0.775	Saint Josephs 49 - Rhode Island 68	9
Saint Louis 69 - La Salle 75	0.66	Saint Louis 70 - La Salle 55	-21
San Diego State 78 - Air Force 63	0.878	San Diego State 51 - Air Force 38	2
San Jose State 71 - Nevada 80	0.735	San Jose State 67 - Nevada 82	6
SE Missouri State 66 - Tennessee State 71	0.633	SE Missouri State 78 - Tennessee State 75	-8
Southern California 83 - Washington State 69	0.834	Southern California 87 - Washington State 64	-9
Stony Brook 74 - Binghamton 59	0.898	Stony Brook 70 - Binghamton 60	5
Tennessee Tech 70 - Murray State 73	0.576	Tennessee Tech 84 - Murray State 85	-2
Texas Christian 77 - Kansas State 73	0.636	Texas Christian 74 - Kansas State 75	5
Texas Tech 78 - Texas 70	0.779	Texas Tech 67 - Texas 57	-2
UC Riverside 62 - UC Irvine 71	0.738	UC Riverside 56 - UC Irvine 68	3
UCLA 96 - Washington 70	0.973	UCLA 98 - Washington 66	-6
Vermont 82 - Maine 52	0.997	Vermont 86 - Maine 41	-15
Wagner 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 64	0.756	Wagner 72 - Fairleigh Dickinson 70	6
Wake Forest 77 - Louisville 83	0.662	Wake Forest 88 - Louisville 81	-13
Xavier 81 - Marquette 78	0.585	Xavier 84 - Marquette 95	14

GAMES OF 3-2

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 76 - Florida Atlantic 66	0.741	Alabama Birmingham 79 - Florida Atlantic 59	-10
Bethune Cookman 72 - Florida AM 66	0.707	Bethune Cookman 69 - Florida AM 59	-4
Boston 74 - Loyola MD 66	0.749	Boston 64 - Loyola MD 60	4
Bradley 77 - Drake 73	0.616	Bradley 67 - Drake 58	-5
Bucknell 83 - Army 64	0.954	Bucknell 78 - Army 62	3
Cal Poly 75 - Cal State Northridge 74	0.524	Cal Poly 76 - Cal State Northridge 70	-5
Cal State Fullerton 73 - UC Santa Barbara 61	0.819	Cal State Fullerton 65 - UC Santa Barbara 54	1
Canisius 78 - Marist 67	0.792	Canisius 77 - Marist 73	7
Cincinnati 78 - Houston 69	0.758	Cincinnati 65 - Houston 47	-9
Colorado 77 - Stanford 73	0.628	Colorado 91 - Stanford 72	-15
Coppin State 64 - Hampton 67	0.586	Coppin State 82 - Hampton 89	4
Delaware State 67 - Howard 63	0.605	Delaware State 66 - Howard 56	-6
Evansville 74 - Indiana State 72	0.579	Evansville 83 - Indiana State 72	-9
Florida Gulf Coast 77 - Kennesaw St 61	0.952	Florida Gulf Coast 74 - Kennesaw St 62	4
Gardner Webb 73 - High Point 68	0.652	Gardner Webb 91 - High Point 55	-31
Grambling State 70 - Alabama State 63	0.722	Grambling State 82 - Alabama State 69	-6
Idaho State 68 - Montana State 74	0.743	Idaho State 68 - Montana State 79	5
Jackson State 72 - Alabama AM 56	0.874	Jackson State 72 - Alabama AM 64	8
Jacksonville State 70 - SE Missouri State 67	0.582	Jacksonville State 74 - SE Missouri State 51	-20
Lamar 76 - Nicholls State 66	0.74	Lamar 87 - Nicholls State 75	-2
Lehigh 79 - Colgate 63	0.883	Lehigh 77 - Colgate 72	11
Liberty 68 - Radford 61	0.715	Liberty 52 - Radford 56	11
Lipscomb 80 - North Florida 68	0.786	Lipscomb 85 - North Florida 91	18
Marshall 83 - Rice 80	0.564	Marshall 88 - Rice 89	4
Maryland Eastern Shore 69 - Morgan State 65	0.633	Maryland Eastern Shore 67 - Morgan State 66	3
Memphis 87 - Tulane 69	0.923	Memphis 92 - Tulane 70	-4
Middle Tennessee 83 - Florida International 55	0.987	Middle Tennessee 70 - Florida International 67	25
Minnesota 84 - Nebraska 70	0.888	Minnesota 88 - Nebraska 73	-1
Morehead State 75 - Murray State 73	0.543	Morehead State 69 - Murray State 75	8
Navy 66 - Holy Cross 62	0.618	Navy 49 - Holy Cross 42	-3
New Orleans 70 - Southeast Louisiana 60	0.763	New Orleans 58 - Southeast Louisiana 63	15
North Carolina AT 55 - North Carolina Central 78	0.957	North Carolina AT 68 - North Carolina Central 63	-28
North Dakota 77 - Sacramento State 63	0.848	North Dakota 53 - Sacramento State 57	18
Northern Arizona 64 - Idaho 71	0.69	Northern Arizona 75 - Idaho 77	-5
Northern Colorado 72 - Portland State 73	0.518	Northern Colorado 87 - Portland State 84	-4
Prairie View 70 - Southern 67	0.577	Prairie View 70 - Southern 64	-3
Quinnipiac 74 - Niagara 75	0.529	Quinnipiac 69 - Niagara 88	18
Rider 75 - Manhattan 68	0.683	Rider 69 - Manhattan 68	6
Sam Houston State 75 - Mcneese State 62	0.838	Sam Houston State 79 - Mcneese State 74	8
Savannah State 79 - South Carolina State 73	0.682	Savannah State 95 - South Carolina State 88	-1
South Alabama 72 - Arkansas Little Rock 66	0.69	South Alabama 57 - Arkansas Little Rock 62	11
South Florida 65 - Central Florida 79	0.832	South Florida 56 - Central Florida 59	-11
Southern Methodist 83 - Tulsa 62	0.934	Southern Methodist 93 - Tulsa 70	-2
Southern Utah 67 - Eastern Washington 81	0.891	Southern Utah 75 - Eastern Washington 91	2
Stephen F Austin 76 - Northwestern State 63	0.818	Stephen F Austin 67 - Northwestern State 72	18
Texas El Paso 63 - Old Dominion 66	0.572	Texas El Paso 61 - Old Dominion 62	-2
Texas San Antonio 73 - Charlotte 72	0.513	Texas San Antonio 75 - Charlotte 76	2
Texas Southern 73 - Alcorn State 64	0.762	Texas Southern 94 - Alcorn State 88	3
Troy 73 - Arkansas State 72	0.516	Troy 81 - Arkansas State 72	-8
UC Davis 72 - Hawaii 66	0.7	UC Davis 68 - Hawaii 59	-3
UL Lafayette 74 - Texas State 68	0.677	UL Lafayette 94 - Texas State 84	-4
UL Monroe 63 - Texas Arlington 77	0.84	UL Monroe 57 - Texas Arlington 72	1
UNC Asheville 77 - Campbell 61	0.911	UNC Asheville 79 - Campbell 81	18
Utah 73 - California 72	0.541	Utah 74 - California 44	-29
Weber State 72 - Montana 67	0.668	Weber State 74 - Montana 78	9
Western Kentucky 77 - North Texas 65	0.801	Western Kentucky 74 - North Texas 63	1
Winthrop 83 - Charleston Southern 63	0.995	Winthrop 92 - Charleston Southern 78	6
Wisconsin 83 - Iowa 72	0.784	Wisconsin 57 - Iowa 59	13

GAMES OF 3-3

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Ball State 74 - Northern Illinois 67	0.705	Ball State 87 - Northern Illinois 82	2
Belmont 76 - Jacksonville State 61	0.902	Belmont 59 - Jacksonville State 65	21
Brown 73 - Columbia 74	0.509	Brown 88 - Columbia 68	-21
Buffalo 78 - Bowling Green 67	0.768	Buffalo 80 - Bowling Green 68	-1
Cleveland State 73 - Youngstown State 69	0.63	Cleveland State 69 - Youngstown State 84	19
Detroit 75 - Milwaukee 70	0.659	Detroit 60 - Milwaukee 85	30
Eastern Michigan 73 - Toledo 72	0.52	Eastern Michigan 56 - Toledo 60	5
Hofstra 76 - Delaware 67	0.738	Hofstra 76 - Delaware 81	14
Illinois State 76 - Evansville 63	0.842	Illinois State 80 - Evansville 69	2
James Madison 72 - Drexel 69	0.572	James Madison 80 - Drexel 70	-7
Kent State 70 - Akron 72	0.557	Kent State 56 - Akron 66	8
Monmouth 82 - Niagara 64	0.912	Monmouth 84 - Niagara 59	-7
Northern Iowa 71 - Missouri State 70	0.507	Northern Iowa 64 - Missouri State 70	7
Ohio 79 - Miami OH 60	0.941	Ohio 69 - Miami OH 55	5
Pennsylvania 77 - Dartmouth 63	0.896	Pennsylvania 74 - Dartmouth 76	16
Pepperdine 72 - Pacific 75	0.59	Pepperdine 84 - Pacific 89	2
Princeton 71 - Harvard 63	0.793	Princeton 73 - Harvard 69	4
Radford 66 - Campbell 65	0.541	Radford 50 - Campbell 66	17
Saint Peters 70 - Canisius 64	0.654	Saint Peters 61 - Canisius 58	3
Samford 80 - Virginia Military Institute 68	0.811	Samford 79 - Virginia Military Institute 61	-6
San Diego 72 - Portland 69	0.592	San Diego 55 - Portland 60	8
Southern Illinois 71 - Loyola Ill 74	0.619	Southern Illinois 55 - Loyola Ill 50	-8
Tennessee Martin 74 - Murray State 73	0.541	Tennessee Martin 73 - Murray State 67	-5
West Virginia 85 - Iowa State 76	0.729	West Virginia 87 - Iowa State 76	-2
Western Carolina 75 - The Citadel 76	0.523	Western Carolina 72 - The Citadel 78	5
Western Michigan 83 - Central Michigan 74	0.726	Western Michigan 88 - Central Michigan 80	1
Wichita State 86 - Bradley 62	0.95	Wichita State 82 - Bradley 56	-2
Winthrop 79 - Gardner Webb 68	0.877	Winthrop 80 - Gardner Webb 77	8
Yale 79 - Cornell 66	0.913	Yale 90 - Cornell 63	-14

GAMES OF 3-4

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Air Force 71 - Boise State 78	0.73	Air Force 70 - Boise State 98	21
Alabama Birmingham 79 - Florida International 64	0.826	Alabama Birmingham 56 - Florida International 68	27
Appalachian State 71 - Coastal Carolina 74	0.601	Appalachian State 77 - Coastal Carolina 73	-7
Arizona State 71 - Arizona 83	0.822	Arizona State 60 - Arizona 73	1
Arkansas 81 - Georgia 74	0.694	Arkansas 85 - Georgia 67	-11
Auburn 85 - Missouri 73	0.786	Auburn 89 - Missouri 78	1
Brigham Young 81 - Loyola Marymount 72	0.735	Brigham Young 89 - Loyola Marymount 81	1
Brown 77 - Cornell 72	0.663	Brown 78 - Cornell 92	19
Butler 83 - Seton Hall 71	0.836	Butler 64 - Seton Hall 70	18
Cal Poly 72 - UC Santa Barbara 63	0.742	Cal Poly 44 - UC Santa Barbara 57	22
Cal State Bakersfield 70 - Grand Canyon 62	0.733	Cal State Bakersfield 52 - Grand Canyon 58	14
Cal State Northridge 76 - Cal State Fullerton 72	0.63	Cal State Northridge 78 - Cal State Fullerton 86	12
Chattanooga 73 - Wofford 70	0.585	Chattanooga 67 - Wofford 79	15
Chicago State 66 - UMKC 76	0.747	Chicago State 82 - UMKC 87	-5
Clemson 86 - Boston College 70	0.844	Clemson 82 - Boston College 68	2
College of Charleston 75 - James Madison 58	0.946	College of Charleston 67 - James Madison 62	12
Colorado 72 - California 74	0.565	Colorado 54 - California 46	-10
DePaul 71 - Xavier 81	0.75	DePaul 65 - Xavier 79	4
Duquesne 76 - Saint Josephs 75	0.532	Duquesne 60 - Saint Josephs 63	4
East Tennessee State 74 - Mercer 64	0.792	East Tennessee State 73 - Mercer 66	3
Florida State 80 - Miami 72	0.659	Florida State 66 - Miami 57	-1
Fresno State 81 - Nevada Las Vegas 66	0.853	Fresno State 72 - Nevada Las Vegas 59	2
Furman 75 - Samford 69	0.675	Furman 63 - Samford 67	10
George Washington 69 - Dayton 77	0.747	George Washington 87 - Dayton 81	-14
Georgetown 70 - Villanova 81	0.77	Georgetown 55 - Villanova 81	15
Georgia State 75 - Georgia Southern 69	0.685	Georgia State 72 - Georgia Southern 67	1
Gonzaga 89 - Pacific 58	0.985	Gonzaga 82 - Pacific 50	-1
Grambling State 73 - Alabama AM 59	0.863	Grambling State 78 - Alabama AM 57	-7
Houston Baptist 74 - Abilene Christian 64	0.779	Houston Baptist 81 - Abilene Christian 72	1
Idaho State 65 - Montana 74	0.772	Idaho State 76 - Montana 95	10
Illinois State 76 - Southern Illinois 64	0.823	Illinois State 63 - Southern Illinois 50	-1
Iona 77 - Rider 72	0.634	Iona 88 - Rider 70	-13
Jackson State 68 - Alabama State 60	0.743	Jackson State 65 - Alabama State 59	2
Kansas State 77 - Texas Tech 73	0.631	Kansas State 61 - Texas Tech 48	-9
La Salle 76 - Fordham 68	0.685	La Salle 66 - Fordham 54	-4
Long Beach State 74 - Hawaii 71	0.627	Long Beach State 84 - Hawaii 75	-6
Louisiana Tech 80 - Southern Miss 57	0.916	Louisiana Tech 93 - Southern Miss 65	-5
Louisville 82 - Notre Dame 72	0.758	Louisville 71 - Notre Dame 64	3
Marquette 82 - Creighton 81	0.523	Marquette 91 - Creighton 83	-7
Marshall 88 - North Texas 70	0.861	Marshall 106 - North Texas 104	16
Maryland 78 - Michigan State 74	0.631	Maryland 63 - Michigan State 60	1
Mcneese State 67 - Lamar 71	0.605	Mcneese State 83 - Lamar 90	3
Middle Tennessee 81 - Florida Atlantic 57	0.973	Middle Tennessee 93 - Florida Atlantic 59	-10
Mississippi 76 - South Carolina 78	0.563	Mississippi 75 - South Carolina 70	-7
Mississippi State 84 - Louisiana State 74	0.753	Mississippi State 88 - Louisiana State 76	-2
Mississippi Valley State 70 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 65	0.649	Mississippi Valley State 88 - Arkansas Pine Bluff 77	-6
Mt St Marys 69 - Robert Morris 61	0.82	Mt St Marys 75 - Robert Morris 66	-1
Nevada 77 - Colorado State 69	0.701	Nevada 85 - Colorado State 72	-5
New Mexico 71 - San Diego State 70	0.518	New Mexico 64 - San Diego State 59	-4
New Mexico State 86 - Texas Pan American 63	0.961	New Mexico State 107 - Texas Pan American 81	-3
Nicholls State 66 - New Orleans 73	0.694	Nicholls State 64 - New Orleans 74	3
North Carolina 85 - Duke 76	0.68	North Carolina 90 - Duke 83	2
North Dakota 81 - Portland State 70	0.759	North Dakota 82 - Portland State 73	2
North Dakota State 74 - IUPUI 69	0.653	North Dakota State 57 - IUPUI 76	24
Northern Arizona 65 - Eastern Washington 76	0.81	Northern Arizona 76 - Eastern Washington 61	-26
Northern Colorado 69 - Sacramento State 66	0.583	Northern Colorado 70 - Sacramento State 67	0
Northwestern State 77 - Central Arkansas 74	0.585	Northwestern State 97 - Central Arkansas 83	-11
Oakland 83 - Youngstown State 66	0.893	Oakland 80 - Youngstown State 81	18
Ohio State 79 - Indiana 77	0.581	Ohio State 92 - Indiana 96	6
Oklahoma 76 - Texas Christian 77	0.503	Oklahoma 73 - Texas Christian 68	-6
Oklahoma State 83 - Kansas 84	0.535	Oklahoma State 85 - Kansas 90	4
Oregon State 59 - Oregon 84	0.959	Oregon State 59 - Oregon 80	-4
Pennsylvania 68 - Harvard 71	0.584	Pennsylvania 75 - Harvard 72	-6
Prairie View 66 - Alcorn State 68	0.575	Prairie View 66 - Alcorn State 60	-8
Princeton 80 - Dartmouth 56	0.991	Princeton 85 - Dartmouth 48	-13
Rhode Island 78 - Davidson 68	0.801	Rhode Island 73 - Davidson 70	7
Richmond 80 - Saint Louis 62	0.925	Richmond 72 - Saint Louis 62	8
Rutgers 69 - Illinois 75	0.66	Rutgers 62 - Illinois 59	-9
Saint Bonaventure 81 - Massachusetts 71	0.774	Saint Bonaventure 60 - Massachusetts 56	6
Saint Johns 76 - Providence 78	0.532	Saint Johns 75 - Providence 86	9
Saint Marys 83 - Portland 56	0.975	Saint Marys 81 - Portland 58	4
Santa Clara 69 - San Francisco 71	0.572	Santa Clara 76 - San Francisco 69	-9
Siena 72 - Fairfield 66	0.678	Siena 78 - Fairfield 66	-6
South Alabama 69 - Arkansas State 73	0.615	South Alabama 73 - Arkansas State 70	-7
South Dakota 80 - Western Illinois 61	0.926	South Dakota 78 - Western Illinois 69	10
Southern California 87 - Washington 71	0.881	Southern California 74 - Washington 58	0
Southern Methodist 82 - Memphis 65	0.891	Southern Methodist 103 - Memphis 62	-24
Southern Utah 66 - Idaho 76	0.786	Southern Utah 75 - Idaho 84	-1
Stephen F Austin 69 - Sam Houston State 64	0.642	Stephen F Austin 64 - Sam Houston State 56	-3
Syracuse 78 - Georgia Tech 70	0.659	Syracuse 90 - Georgia Tech 61	-21
Tennessee 76 - Alabama 71	0.656	Tennessee 59 - Alabama 54	0
Tennessee Martin 70 - Jacksonville State 69	0.513	Tennessee Martin 55 - Jacksonville State 66	12
Texas 68 - Baylor 76	0.78	Texas 64 - Baylor 75	3
Texas AM 72 - Kentucky 83	0.769	Texas AM 63 - Kentucky 71	-3
Texas AM CC 78 - Incarnate Word 64	0.863	Texas AM CC 81 - Incarnate Word 64	-3
Texas El Paso 76 - Charlotte 69	0.698	Texas El Paso 74 - Charlotte 67	0
Texas San Antonio 59 - Old Dominion 69	0.751	Texas San Antonio 73 - Old Dominion 55	-28
Texas Southern 77 - Southern 63	0.84	Texas Southern 82 - Southern 69	1
Towson 73 - Northeastern 70	0.58	Towson 82 - Northeastern 54	-25
Troy 76 - Arkansas Little Rock 65	0.827	Troy 57 - Arkansas Little Rock 54	8
UC Irvine 72 - UC Davis 65	0.703	UC Irvine 79 - UC Davis 49	-23
UCLA 93 - Washington State 68	0.952	UCLA 77 - Washington State 68	16
UL Lafayette 74 - Texas Arlington 79	0.63	UL Lafayette 83 - Texas Arlington 81	-7
UL Monroe 63 - Texas State 66	0.586	UL Monroe 65 - Texas State 70	2
UNC Greensboro 87 - The Citadel 71	0.867	UNC Greensboro 76 - The Citadel 67	7
UNC Wilmington 82 - Delaware 62	0.934	UNC Wilmington 91 - Delaware 82	11
Utah 79 - Stanford 71	0.709	Utah 67 - Stanford 59	0
Utah Valley 75 - Seattle 67	0.709	Utah Valley 61 - Seattle 54	1
Valparaiso 77 - Milwaukee 60	0.92	Valparaiso 41 - Milwaukee 43	19
Vanderbilt 72 - Florida 77	0.653	Vanderbilt 73 - Florida 71	-7
Virginia 79 - Pittsburgh 65	0.814	Virginia 67 - Pittsburgh 42	-11
Virginia Commonwealth 82 - George Mason 69	0.814	Virginia Commonwealth 72 - George Mason 60	1
Virginia Tech 84 - Wake Forest 80	0.625	Virginia Tech 84 - Wake Forest 89	9
Wagner 71 - Saint Francis Penn 66	0.682	Wagner 70 - Saint Francis Penn 71	6
Weber State 75 - Montana State 68	0.744	Weber State 76 - Montana State 67	-2
Western Kentucky 72 - Rice 75	0.6	Western Kentucky 79 - Rice 72	-10
Wichita State 86 - Missouri State 66	0.944	Wichita State 78 - Missouri State 63	5
William and Mary 75 - Elon 76	0.511	William and Mary 71 - Elon 66	-6
Wyoming 80 - San Jose State 73	0.747	Wyoming 74 - San Jose State 62	-5
Yale 77 - Columbia 68	0.806	Yale 75 - Columbia 71	5

GAMES OF 3-5

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Boston 72 - Lehigh 73	0.516	Boston 88 - Lehigh 91	2
Bucknell 77 - Navy 62	0.867	Bucknell 70 - Navy 65	10
College of Charleston 73 - Towson 65	0.769	College of Charleston 67 - Towson 59	0
Connecticut 69 - Cincinnati 75	0.702	Connecticut 47 - Cincinnati 67	14
East Tennessee State 80 - Samford 69	0.83	East Tennessee State 81 - Samford 72	2
Florida Gulf Coast 77 - North Florida 62	0.86	Florida Gulf Coast 77 - North Florida 61	-1
Green Bay 78 - Illinois Chicago 71	0.701	Green Bay 70 - Illinois Chicago 79	16
Houston 81 - East Carolina 62	0.924	Houston 73 - East Carolina 51	-3
Illinois State 69 - Wichita State 76	0.697	Illinois State 51 - Wichita State 71	13
Iowa 83 - Penn State 77	0.641	Iowa 90 - Penn State 79	-5
Nebraska 73 - Michigan 79	0.654	Nebraska 57 - Michigan 93	30
Northern Kentucky 72 - Wright State 71	0.523	Northern Kentucky 82 - Wright State 77	-4
Northwestern 73 - Purdue 77	0.598	Northwestern 65 - Purdue 69	0
Omaha 77 - IPFW 79	0.561	Omaha 84 - IPFW 80	-6
Saint Peters 68 - Iona 66	0.567	Saint Peters 65 - Iona 73	10
Siena 69 - Monmouth 75	0.703	Siena 89 - Monmouth 85	-10
South Dakota State 74 - Denver 69	0.618	South Dakota State 83 - Denver 73	-5
South Florida 71 - Temple 81	0.761	South Florida 60 - Temple 72	2
Tulane 74 - Tulsa 80	0.693	Tulane 81 - Tulsa 69	-18
UNC Greensboro 74 - Wofford 71	0.593	UNC Greensboro 77 - Wofford 73	-1
UNC Wilmington 83 - William and Mary 74	0.726	UNC Wilmington 105 - William and Mary 94	-2
Winthrop 80 - Campbell 60	0.968	Winthrop 76 - Campbell 59	3
Wisconsin 77 - Minnesota 73	0.649	Wisconsin 66 - Minnesota 49	-13

Number of DI Games: 309
Number Correct: 222 = 71.8%
Expected Number Correct: 223.028 = 72.1%
Average Error: 8.21
Average Signed Error: 0.84

CHAMP WEEK -- 3-6 to 3-12

GAMES OF 3-6

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
College of Charleston 73 - UNC Wilmington 72	0.545	College of Charleston 69 - UNC Wilmington 78	10
Coppin State 65 - Howard 66	0.524	Coppin State 73 - Howard 79	5
Eastern Michigan 73 - Northern Illinois 65	0.69	Eastern Michigan 72 - Northern Illinois 69	5
Gonzaga 84 - Santa Clara 62	0.895	Gonzaga 77 - Santa Clara 68	13
Illinois Chicago 71 - Milwaukee 69	0.56	Illinois Chicago 68 - Milwaukee 74	8
Kent State 83 - Central Michigan 73	0.746	Kent State 116 - Central Michigan 106	0
Maryland Eastern Shore 75 - North Carolina AT 63	0.808	Maryland Eastern Shore 74 - North Carolina AT 67	5
Northern Kentucky 79 - Youngstown State 68	0.801	Northern Kentucky 84 - Youngstown State 74	1
Omaha 77 - IUPUI 75	0.571	Omaha 90 - IUPUI 62	-26
Saint Marys 78 - Brigham Young 69	0.7	Saint Marys 81 - Brigham Young 50	-22
Siena 74 - Iona 72	0.548	Siena 86 - Iona 87	3
South Dakota 74 - South Dakota State 70	0.608	South Dakota 71 - South Dakota State 74	7
Stony Brook 68 - Albany 67	0.537	Stony Brook 56 - Albany 63	8
Toledo 78 - Bowling Green 67	0.765	Toledo 77 - Bowling Green 62	-4
UNC Greensboro 68 - East Tennessee State 73	0.637	UNC Greensboro 74 - East Tennessee State 79	0
Vermont 74 - New Hampshire 60	0.889	Vermont 74 - New Hampshire 41	-19
Western Michigan 77 - Miami OH 62	0.864	Western Michigan 65 - Miami OH 61	11

GAMES OF 3-7

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alcorn State 77 - Mississippi Valley State 63	0.868	Alcorn State 63 - Mississippi Valley State 60	11
Clemson 84 - NC State 76	0.666	Clemson 75 - NC State 61	-6
Delaware State 67 - Bethune Cookman 66	0.529	Delaware State 62 - Bethune Cookman 69	8
Georgia Tech 72 - Pittsburgh 73	0.505	Georgia Tech 59 - Pittsburgh 61	1
Gonzaga 75 - Saint Marys 68	0.674	Gonzaga 74 - Saint Marys 56	-11
Idaho State 65 - Sacramento State 72	0.741	Idaho State 76 - Sacramento State 91	8
Montana State 80 - Southern Utah 67	0.869	Montana State 105 - Southern Utah 109	17
Mt St Marys 73 - Saint Francis Penn 66	0.714	Mt St Marys 71 - Saint Francis Penn 61	-3
Northern Kentucky 73 - Milwaukee 63	0.788	Northern Kentucky 59 - Milwaukee 53	4
Portland State 76 - Northern Arizona 70	0.639	Portland State 80 - Northern Arizona 67	-7
Prairie View 70 - Grambling State 63	0.679	Prairie View 77 - Grambling State 81	11
South Carolina State 71 - Florida AM 66	0.661	South Carolina State 82 - Florida AM 78	1
South Dakota State 78 - Omaha 74	0.601	South Dakota State 79 - Omaha 77	2
Southern 67 - Jackson State 63	0.631	Southern 69 - Jackson State 63	-2
Texas Southern 79 - Alabama State 58	0.92	Texas Southern 87 - Alabama State 72	6
Wake Forest 89 - Boston College 74	0.851	Wake Forest 92 - Boston College 78	1

GAMES OF 3-8

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama Birmingham 77 - Charlotte 70	0.68	Alabama Birmingham 74 - Charlotte 73	6
Arizona State 76 - Stanford 78	0.563	Arizona State 98 - Stanford 88	-12
Arkansas State 74 - UL Monroe 63	0.785	Arkansas State 70 - UL Monroe 73	14
Auburn 83 - Missouri 74	0.717	Auburn 83 - Missouri 86	12
Bucknell 78 - Lehigh 69	0.733	Bucknell 81 - Lehigh 65	-7
California 78 - Oregon State 59	0.895	California 67 - Oregon State 62	14
Coastal Carolina 73 - South Alabama 70	0.6	Coastal Carolina 80 - South Alabama 67	-10
Colorado 80 - Washington State 72	0.704	Colorado 73 - Washington State 63	-2
Duke 82 - Clemson 74	0.683	Duke 79 - Clemson 72	1
Duquesne 73 - Saint Louis 68	0.638	Duquesne 71 - Saint Louis 72	6
Lamar 67 - Southeast Louisiana 66	0.525	Lamar 77 - Southeast Louisiana 65	-11
Marshall 83 - Florida Atlantic 75	0.689	Marshall 89 - Florida Atlantic 74	-7
Massachusetts 75 - Saint Josephs 73	0.553	Massachusetts 70 - Saint Josephs 63	-5
Mississippi State 82 - Louisiana State 76	0.65	Mississippi State 79 - Louisiana State 52	-21
Nebraska 76 - Penn State 79	0.57	Nebraska 67 - Penn State 76	6
Nevada Las Vegas 65 - San Diego State 73	0.703	Nevada Las Vegas 52 - San Diego State 62	2
Norfolk State 72 - South Carolina State 62	0.802	Norfolk State 93 - South Carolina State 88	5
North Carolina Central 74 - Bethune Cookman 58	0.887	North Carolina Central 95 - Bethune Cookman 60	-19
Ohio State 78 - Rutgers 70	0.732	Ohio State 57 - Rutgers 66	17
Rice 79 - Southern Miss 64	0.805	Rice 86 - Southern Miss 75	4
Saint Johns 79 - Georgetown 78	0.522	Saint Johns 74 - Georgetown 73	0
Sam Houston State 76 - Central Arkansas 69	0.684	Sam Houston State 77 - Central Arkansas 69	-1
Southern California 85 - Washington 72	0.819	Southern California 78 - Washington 73	8
Syracuse 73 - Miami 76	0.555	Syracuse 57 - Miami 62	2
Texas Christian 78 - Oklahoma 76	0.574	Texas Christian 82 - Oklahoma 63	-17
Texas Tech 76 - Texas 71	0.664	Texas Tech 52 - Texas 61	14
Troy 78 - Appalachian State 69	0.75	Troy 84 - Appalachian State 64	-11
UL Lafayette 76 - Arkansas Little Rock 68	0.722	UL Lafayette 78 - Arkansas Little Rock 71	1
Utah State 74 - San Jose State 71	0.589	Utah State 90 - San Jose State 64	-23
Virginia 77 - Pittsburgh 64	0.775	Virginia 75 - Pittsburgh 63	1
Virginia Tech 82 - Wake Forest 83	0.547	Virginia Tech 99 - Wake Forest 90	-10
Western Kentucky 70 - Texas San Antonio 67	0.58	Western Kentucky 52 - Texas San Antonio 56	7
Wyoming 80 - Air Force 72	0.745	Wyoming 68 - Air Force 83	23
Xavier 83 - DePaul 70	0.826	Xavier 75 - DePaul 64	2

GAMES OF 3-9

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 74 - Eastern Michigan 68	0.671	Akron 79 - Eastern Michigan 62	-11
Alabama 74 - Mississippi State 70	0.612	Alabama 75 - Mississippi State 55	-16
Arizona 80 - Colorado 69	0.782	Arizona 92 - Colorado 78	-3
Ball State 73 - Western Michigan 74	0.523	Ball State 66 - Western Michigan 63	-4
Baylor 77 - Kansas State 69	0.734	Baylor 64 - Kansas State 70	14
Boise State 71 - San Diego State 70	0.525	Boise State 68 - San Diego State 87	20
Buffalo 73 - Kent State 71	0.552	Buffalo 65 - Kent State 68	5
Butler 80 - Xavier 74	0.675	Butler 57 - Xavier 62	11
Cal State Fullerton 76 - Cal State Northridge 73	0.572	Cal State Fullerton 81 - Cal State Northridge 68	-10
Colorado State 79 - Air Force 65	0.825	Colorado State 81 - Air Force 55	-12
Connecticut 82 - South Florida 63	0.895	Connecticut 77 - South Florida 66	8
Eastern Washington 74 - Sacramento State 65	0.751	Eastern Washington 89 - Sacramento State 70	-10
Florida State 84 - Virginia Tech 77	0.644	Florida State 74 - Virginia Tech 68	1
Fresno State 75 - New Mexico 72	0.573	Fresno State 65 - New Mexico 60	-2
George Mason 74 - Fordham 68	0.653	George Mason 82 - Fordham 71	-5
George Washington 75 - Saint Louis 65	0.785	George Washington 53 - Saint Louis 46	3
Georgia 76 - Tennessee 75	0.54	Georgia 59 - Tennessee 57	-1
Hampton 69 - Maryland Eastern Shore 66	0.58	Hampton 66 - Maryland Eastern Shore 68	5
Houston Baptist 71 - Sam Houston State 69	0.581	Houston Baptist 59 - Sam Houston State 63	6
Idaho 68 - Montana 70	0.566	Idaho 81 - Montana 77	-6
Iowa 81 - Indiana 82	0.511	Iowa 73 - Indiana 95	21
Iowa State 82 - Oklahoma State 83	0.503	Iowa State 92 - Oklahoma State 83	-10
Kansas 88 - Texas Christian 71	0.937	Kansas 82 - Texas Christian 85	20
La Salle 74 - Davidson 78	0.61	La Salle 73 - Davidson 82	5
Long Beach State 73 - Hawaii 72	0.548	Long Beach State 73 - Hawaii 62	-10
Louisiana Tech 75 - Alabama Birmingham 67	0.69	Louisiana Tech 69 - Alabama Birmingham 57	-4
Louisville 79 - Duke 77	0.557	Louisville 77 - Duke 81	6
Marquette 80 - Seton Hall 78	0.573	Marquette 76 - Seton Hall 82	8
Michigan 77 - Illinois 71	0.637	Michigan 75 - Illinois 55	-14
Michigan State 79 - Penn State 74	0.642	Michigan State 78 - Penn State 51	-22
Middle Tennessee 76 - Texas San Antonio 57	0.883	Middle Tennessee 86 - Texas San Antonio 70	3
Mississippi 82 - Missouri 71	0.758	Mississippi 86 - Missouri 74	-1
Morgan State 66 - Howard 60	0.648	Morgan State 65 - Howard 68	9
Nevada 80 - Utah State 69	0.763	Nevada 83 - Utah State 69	-3
New Mexico State 83 - Chicago State 59	0.921	New Mexico State 67 - Chicago State 53	10
North Carolina 80 - Miami 72	0.69	North Carolina 78 - Miami 53	-17
North Dakota 78 - Portland State 71	0.671	North Dakota 95 - Portland State 72	-16
Northwestern 77 - Rutgers 66	0.795	Northwestern 83 - Rutgers 61	-11
Notre Dame 69 - Virginia 73	0.613	Notre Dame 71 - Virginia 58	-17
Ohio 74 - Toledo 70	0.581	Ohio 67 - Toledo 66	3
Old Dominion 76 - Marshall 72	0.584	Old Dominion 63 - Marshall 64	5
Oregon 87 - Arizona State 69	0.872	Oregon 80 - Arizona State 57	-5
Providence 74 - Creighton 78	0.602	Providence 58 - Creighton 70	8
Saint Bonaventure 78 - Massachusetts 71	0.686	Saint Bonaventure 73 - Massachusetts 60	-6
Saint Johns 70 - Villanova 86	0.824	Saint Johns 67 - Villanova 108	25
Stephen F Austin 67 - Lamar 66	0.521	Stephen F Austin 75 - Lamar 59	-15
Temple 75 - East Carolina 69	0.69	Temple 69 - East Carolina 80	17
Texas El Paso 70 - Rice 73	0.588	Texas El Paso 86 - Rice 76	-13
Tulsa 82 - Tulane 74	0.72	Tulsa 66 - Tulane 60	2
UC Davis 73 - Cal Poly 66	0.681	UC Davis 66 - Cal Poly 55	-4
UC Irvine 74 - UC Riverside 59	0.826	UC Irvine 76 - UC Riverside 67	6
UCLA 86 - Southern California 77	0.756	UCLA 76 - Southern California 74	7
UMKC 81 - Texas Pan American 72	0.75	UMKC 82 - Texas Pan American 78	5
Utah 73 - California 71	0.533	Utah 75 - California 78	5
Utah Valley 73 - Seattle 68	0.63	Utah Valley 65 - Seattle 53	-7
Vanderbilt 76 - Texas AM 68	0.698	Vanderbilt 66 - Texas AM 41	-17
Weber State 81 - Southern Utah 65	0.896	Weber State 90 - Southern Utah 70	-4
West Virginia 85 - Texas 69	0.863	West Virginia 63 - Texas 53	6

GAMES OF 3-10

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 75 - Ball State 70	0.649	Akron 74 - Ball State 70	1
Alcorn State 69 - Southern 65	0.665	Alcorn State 81 - Southern 59	-18
Arizona 78 - UCLA 79	0.547	Arizona 86 - UCLA 75	-12
Arkansas 83 - Mississippi 77	0.641	Arkansas 73 - Mississippi 72	5
Cal State Bakersfield 72 - Utah Valley 64	0.717	Cal State Bakersfield 81 - Utah Valley 80	7
Central Florida 73 - Memphis 71	0.546	Central Florida 84 - Memphis 54	-28
Cincinnati 81 - Tulsa 64	0.885	Cincinnati 80 - Tulsa 61	-2
Colorado State 69 - San Diego State 67	0.546	Colorado State 71 - San Diego State 63	-6
Connecticut 71 - Houston 73	0.572	Connecticut 74 - Houston 65	-11
Creighton 81 - Xavier 77	0.612	Creighton 75 - Xavier 72	1
Dayton 80 - Davidson 70	0.785	Dayton 67 - Davidson 73	16
Eastern Washington 72 - Weber State 71	0.541	Eastern Washington 72 - Weber State 80	9
Florida State 80 - Notre Dame 78	0.557	Florida State 73 - Notre Dame 77	6
Georgia Southern 72 - Troy 73	0.502	Georgia Southern 70 - Troy 90	19
Georgia State 75 - UL Lafayette 74	0.522	Georgia State 86 - UL Lafayette 76	-9
Iowa State 82 - Texas Christian 75	0.706	Iowa State 84 - Texas Christian 63	-14
Kentucky 84 - Georgia 72	0.81	Kentucky 71 - Georgia 60	1
Louisiana Tech 82 - Marshall 76	0.668	Louisiana Tech 77 - Marshall 93	22
Maryland 77 - Northwestern 71	0.66	Maryland 64 - Northwestern 72	14
Middle Tennessee 73 - Texas El Paso 60	0.816	Middle Tennessee 82 - Texas El Paso 56	-13
Minnesota 78 - Michigan State 75	0.592	Minnesota 63 - Michigan State 58	-2
Nevada 78 - Fresno State 72	0.655	Nevada 83 - Fresno State 72	-5
New Mexico State 79 - UMKC 68	0.756	New Mexico State 78 - UMKC 60	-7
New Orleans 69 - Sam Houston State 64	0.622	New Orleans 75 - Sam Houston State 63	-7
Norfolk State 70 - Howard 58	0.829	Norfolk State 68 - Howard 53	-3
North Carolina 82 - Duke 79	0.578	North Carolina 83 - Duke 93	13
North Carolina Central 72 - Maryland Eastern Shore 62	0.778	North Carolina Central 79 - Maryland Eastern Shore 49	-20
North Dakota 71 - Idaho 68	0.593	North Dakota 69 - Idaho 64	-2
Ohio 73 - Kent State 69	0.602	Ohio 66 - Kent State 68	6
Oregon 76 - California 66	0.751	Oregon 73 - California 65	2
Purdue 79 - Michigan 74	0.603	Purdue 70 - Michigan 74	9
Rhode Island 76 - Saint Bonaventure 70	0.681	Rhode Island 74 - Saint Bonaventure 63	-5
Richmond 76 - George Washington 73	0.583	Richmond 70 - George Washington 67	0
South Carolina 73 - Alabama 68	0.651	South Carolina 53 - Alabama 64	16
Southern Methodist 82 - East Carolina 59	0.926	Southern Methodist 81 - East Carolina 77	19
Texas AM CC 67 - Stephen F Austin 65	0.554	Texas AM CC 77 - Stephen F Austin 69	-6
Texas Arlington 78 - Coastal Carolina 67	0.781	Texas Arlington 74 - Coastal Carolina 51	-12
Texas Southern 77 - Grambling State 61	0.85	Texas Southern 62 - Grambling State 57	11
Texas State 70 - UL Monroe 62	0.728	Texas State 63 - UL Monroe 51	-4
UC Davis 71 - Cal State Fullerton 68	0.57	UC Davis 66 - Cal State Fullerton 64	1
UC Irvine 76 - Long Beach State 69	0.677	UC Irvine 62 - Long Beach State 57	2
Vanderbilt 72 - Florida 77	0.625	Vanderbilt 72 - Florida 62	-15
Villanova 81 - Seton Hall 69	0.838	Villanova 55 - Seton Hall 53	10
Virginia Commonwealth 79 - George Mason 70	0.735	Virginia Commonwealth 71 - George Mason 60	-2
West Virginia 82 - Kansas State 73	0.736	West Virginia 51 - Kansas State 50	8
Wisconsin 79 - Indiana 73	0.664	Wisconsin 70 - Indiana 60	-4

GAMES OF 3-11

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Akron 74 - Kent State 68	0.653	Akron 65 - Kent State 70	11
Cal State Bakersfield 67 - New Mexico State 68	0.555	Cal State Bakersfield 60 - New Mexico State 70	9
Connecticut 66 - Cincinnati 76	0.753	Connecticut 71 - Cincinnati 81	0
Georgia State 74 - Troy 71	0.584	Georgia State 63 - Troy 74	14
Harvard 73 - Yale 69	0.639	Harvard 71 - Yale 73	6
Kentucky 82 - Alabama 69	0.83	Kentucky 79 - Alabama 74	8
Middle Tennessee 83 - Marshall 70	0.78	Middle Tennessee 83 - Marshall 72	2
Minnesota 76 - Michigan 77	0.516	Minnesota 77 - Michigan 84	6
Nevada 76 - Colorado State 71	0.631	Nevada 79 - Colorado State 71	-3
New Orleans 67 - Texas AM CC 66	0.527	New Orleans 68 - Texas AM CC 65	-2
Norfolk State 63 - North Carolina Central 66	0.589	Norfolk State 59 - North Carolina Central 67	5
North Dakota 71 - Weber State 70	0.537	North Dakota 93 - Weber State 89	-3
Notre Dame 77 - Duke 80	0.581	Notre Dame 69 - Duke 75	3
Oregon 75 - Arizona 72	0.557	Oregon 80 - Arizona 83	6
Pennsylvania 63 - Princeton 71	0.707	Pennsylvania 64 - Princeton 72	0
Rhode Island 76 - Davidson 70	0.692	Rhode Island 84 - Davidson 60	-18
Southern Methodist 77 - Central Florida 64	0.785	Southern Methodist 70 - Central Florida 59	2
Texas Arlington 74 - Texas State 64	0.761	Texas Arlington 62 - Texas State 83	31
Texas Southern 74 - Alcorn State 63	0.789	Texas Southern 53 - Alcorn State 50	8
UC Irvine 71 - UC Davis 65	0.639	UC Irvine 47 - UC Davis 50	9
Vanderbilt 78 - Arkansas 75	0.582	Vanderbilt 62 - Arkansas 76	17
Vermont 74 - Albany 61	0.87	Vermont 56 - Albany 53	10
Villanova 82 - Creighton 73	0.737	Villanova 74 - Creighton 60	-5
Virginia Commonwealth 77 - Richmond 71	0.668	Virginia Commonwealth 87 - Richmond 77	-4
West Virginia 83 - Iowa State 78	0.618	West Virginia 74 - Iowa State 80	11
Wisconsin 73 - Northwestern 69	0.612	Wisconsin 76 - Northwestern 48	-24

GAMES OF 3-12

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Kentucky 86 - Arkansas 77	0.725	Kentucky 82 - Arkansas 65	-8
Princeton 73 - Yale 64	0.774	Princeton 71 - Yale 59	-3
Southern Methodist 73 - Cincinnati 71	0.546	Southern Methodist 71 - Cincinnati 56	-13
Texas State 69 - Troy 70	0.537	Texas State 53 - Troy 59	5
Virginia Commonwealth 73 - Rhode Island 71	0.545	Virginia Commonwealth 63 - Rhode Island 70	9
Wisconsin 74 - Michigan 73	0.522	Wisconsin 56 - Michigan 71	16

Number of DI Games: 203
Number Correct: 146 = 71.9%
Expected Number Correct: 137.326 = 67.6%
Average Error: 8.58
Average Signed Error: 0.48

TOURNAMENTS -- 3-13 to 4-3

GAMES OF 3-13

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Liberty 69 - Norfolk State 58	0.826	Liberty 73 - Norfolk State 64	2

GAMES OF 3-14

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Alabama 76 - Richmond 68	0.719	Alabama 64 - Richmond 71	15
California 71 - Cal State Bakersfield 60	0.812	California 66 - Cal State Bakersfield 73	18
Campbell 68 - Houston Baptist 69	0.505	Campbell 98 - Houston Baptist 79	-20
Clemson 81 - Oakland 69	0.765	Clemson 69 - Oakland 74	17
Colorado State 71 - College of Charleston 66	0.668	Colorado State 81 - College of Charleston 74	-2
Georgia Tech 74 - Indiana 75	0.509	Georgia Tech 75 - Indiana 63	-13
Illinois 75 - Valparaiso 67	0.707	Illinois 82 - Valparaiso 57	-17
Jacksonville 71 - Saint Francis Penn 70	0.527	Jacksonville 76 - Saint Francis Penn 78	3
Kansas State 79 - Wake Forest 80	0.526	Kansas State 95 - Wake Forest 88	-8
Monmouth 78 - Mississippi 75	0.588	Monmouth 83 - Mississippi 91	11
Mt St Marys 65 - New Orleans 66	0.562	Mt St Marys 67 - New Orleans 66	-2
Samford 77 - Canisius 72	0.659	Samford 78 - Canisius 74	1
Utah 81 - Boise State 71	0.743	Utah 68 - Boise State 73	15

GAMES OF 3-15

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Brigham Young 79 - Texas Arlington 74	0.617	Brigham Young 89 - Texas Arlington 105	21
Central Florida 75 - Colorado 71	0.607	Central Florida 79 - Colorado 74	-1
Coastal Carolina 74 - Hampton 61	0.835	Coastal Carolina 83 - Hampton 67	-3
George Mason 79 - Loyola MD 64	0.867	George Mason 58 - Loyola MD 73	30
George Washington 76 - Toledo 69	0.687	George Washington 73 - Toledo 69	3
Georgia 77 - Belmont 68	0.781	Georgia 69 - Belmont 78	18
Georgia Southern 76 - Utah Valley 70	0.65	Georgia Southern 49 - Utah Valley 74	31
Houston 77 - Akron 68	0.746	Houston 75 - Akron 78	12
Idaho 68 - Stephen F Austin 63	0.625	Idaho 73 - Stephen F Austin 50	-18
Illinois State 74 - UC Irvine 59	0.831	Illinois State 85 - UC Irvine 71	1
Iowa 82 - South Dakota 71	0.793	Iowa 87 - South Dakota 75	-1
IPFW 77 - Ball State 74	0.586	IPFW 88 - Ball State 80	-5
Providence 75 - Southern California 74	0.507	Providence 71 - Southern California 75	5
Rice 73 - San Francisco 75	0.545	Rice 85 - San Francisco 76	-11
Syracuse 80 - UNC Greensboro 67	0.76	Syracuse 90 - UNC Greensboro 77	0
Texas AM CC 69 - Georgia State 70	0.532	Texas AM CC 80 - Georgia State 64	-17
Texas Christian 79 - Fresno State 70	0.756	Texas Christian 66 - Fresno State 59	2
UC Davis 65 - North Carolina Central 66	0.535	UC Davis 67 - North Carolina Central 63	-5
UMBC 75 - Fairfield 71	0.636	UMBC 88 - Fairfield 83	-1
UMKC 75 - Green Bay 74	0.513	UMKC 92 - Green Bay 82	-9
Wyoming 79 - Eastern Washington 72	0.697	Wyoming 91 - Eastern Washington 81	-3

GAMES OF 3-16

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Albany 64 - Saint Peters 62	0.582	Albany 55 - Saint Peters 59	6
Arizona 82 - North Dakota 62	0.912	Arizona 100 - North Dakota 82	2
Butler 81 - Winthrop 69	0.855	Butler 76 - Winthrop 64	0
Cal State Fullerton 69 - Weber State 70	0.502	Cal State Fullerton 76 - Weber State 80	3
Florida 80 - East Tennessee State 68	0.822	Florida 80 - East Tennessee State 65	-3
Florida State 81 - Florida Gulf Coast 66	0.818	Florida State 86 - Florida Gulf Coast 80	9
Gonzaga 87 - South Dakota State 62	0.935	Gonzaga 66 - South Dakota State 46	5
Illinois Chicago 69 - Stony Brook 70	0.521	Illinois Chicago 71 - Stony Brook 69	-3
Iowa State 82 - Nevada 76	0.664	Iowa State 84 - Nevada 73	-5
Maryland 77 - Xavier 76	0.541	Maryland 65 - Xavier 76	12
Minnesota 74 - Middle Tennessee 71	0.61	Minnesota 72 - Middle Tennessee 81	12
Northwestern 72 - Vanderbilt 73	0.535	Northwestern 68 - Vanderbilt 66	-3
Notre Dame 75 - Princeton 67	0.753	Notre Dame 60 - Princeton 58	6
Purdue 76 - Vermont 67	0.759	Purdue 80 - Vermont 70	-1
Saint Marys 73 - Virginia Commonwealth 68	0.64	Saint Marys 85 - Virginia Commonwealth 77	-3
South Carolina Upstate 66 - Furman 73	0.675	South Carolina Upstate 57 - Furman 79	15
Tennessee Martin 69 - UNC Asheville 73	0.61	Tennessee Martin 89 - UNC Asheville 75	-18
Texas State 72 - Lamar 62	0.743	Texas State 70 - Lamar 60	0
Villanova 84 - Mt St Marys 56	0.99	Villanova 76 - Mt St Marys 56	8
Virginia 77 - UNC Wilmington 67	0.747	Virginia 76 - UNC Wilmington 71	5
West Virginia 82 - Bucknell 70	0.826	West Virginia 86 - Bucknell 80	6
Wisconsin 78 - Virginia Tech 73	0.613	Wisconsin 84 - Virginia Tech 74	-5

GAMES OF 3-17

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arkansas 78 - Seton Hall 76	0.552	Arkansas 77 - Seton Hall 71	-4
Baylor 78 - New Mexico State 65	0.823	Baylor 91 - New Mexico State 73	-5
Cincinnati 75 - Kansas State 70	0.655	Cincinnati 75 - Kansas State 61	-9
Creighton 76 - Rhode Island 74	0.566	Creighton 72 - Rhode Island 84	14
Dayton 72 - Wichita State 79	0.682	Dayton 58 - Wichita State 64	-1
Duke 86 - Troy 67	0.906	Duke 87 - Troy 65	-3
Kansas 88 - UC Davis 63	0.963	Kansas 100 - UC Davis 62	-13
Kentucky 87 - Northern Kentucky 65	0.939	Kentucky 79 - Northern Kentucky 70	13
Louisville 82 - Jacksonville State 59	0.923	Louisville 78 - Jacksonville State 63	8
Miami 73 - Michigan State 71	0.554	Miami 58 - Michigan State 78	22
Michigan 82 - Oklahoma State 80	0.546	Michigan 92 - Oklahoma State 91	1
North Carolina 89 - Texas Southern 62	0.924	North Carolina 103 - Texas Southern 64	-12
Oregon 84 - Iona 66	0.874	Oregon 93 - Iona 77	2
South Carolina 77 - Marquette 78	0.505	South Carolina 93 - Marquette 73	-21
Southern Methodist 80 - Southern California 70	0.74	Southern Methodist 65 - Southern California 66	11
UCLA 87 - Kent State 69	0.884	UCLA 97 - Kent State 80	1

GAMES OF 3-18

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arizona 71 - Saint Marys 69	0.56	Arizona 69 - Saint Marys 60	-7
Butler 75 - Middle Tennessee 69	0.656	Butler 74 - Middle Tennessee 65	-3
Florida 72 - Virginia 70	0.532	Florida 65 - Virginia 39	-24
Florida State 82 - Xavier 75	0.657	Florida State 66 - Xavier 91	32
Gonzaga 81 - Northwestern 68	0.778	Gonzaga 79 - Northwestern 73	7
Purdue 80 - Iowa State 79	0.526	Purdue 80 - Iowa State 76	-3
Syracuse 82 - Mississippi 75	0.657	Syracuse 80 - Mississippi 85	12
UMBC 79 - Saint Francis Penn 71	0.743	UMBC 87 - Saint Francis Penn 79	0
Villanova 76 - Wisconsin 68	0.699	Villanova 62 - Wisconsin 65	11
West Virginia 79 - Notre Dame 77	0.58	West Virginia 83 - Notre Dame 71	-10

GAMES OF 3-19

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Baylor 78 - Southern California 70	0.741	Baylor 82 - Southern California 78	4
Duke 80 - South Carolina 72	0.699	Duke 81 - South Carolina 88	15
Georgia Tech 73 - Belmont 68	0.628	Georgia Tech 71 - Belmont 57	-9
Iowa 81 - Texas Christian 78	0.558	Iowa 92 - Texas Christian 94	5
Kansas 83 - Michigan State 74	0.766	Kansas 90 - Michigan State 70	-11
Kentucky 81 - Wichita State 78	0.576	Kentucky 65 - Wichita State 62	0
Louisville 78 - Michigan 75	0.571	Louisville 69 - Michigan 73	7
North Carolina 85 - Arkansas 77	0.698	North Carolina 72 - Arkansas 65	1
Oregon 76 - Rhode Island 69	0.683	Oregon 75 - Rhode Island 72	4
Richmond 77 - Oakland 71	0.679	Richmond 87 - Oakland 83	2
UCLA 79 - Cincinnati 77	0.546	UCLA 79 - Cincinnati 67	-10

GAMES OF 3-20

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Campbell 68 - Tennessee Martin 69	0.522	Campbell 73 - Tennessee Martin 56	-18
Coastal Carolina 73 - Loyola MD 65	0.729	Coastal Carolina 72 - Loyola MD 63	-1
Colorado State 71 - Cal State Bakersfield 63	0.754	Colorado State 63 - Cal State Bakersfield 81	26
Illinois 78 - Boise State 71	0.707	Illinois 71 - Boise State 56	-8
Illinois Chicago 69 - George Washington 77	0.715	Illinois Chicago 80 - George Washington 71	-17
Illinois State 71 - Central Florida 64	0.681	Illinois State 62 - Central Florida 63	8
Liberty 70 - Samford 68	0.559	Liberty 66 - Samford 58	-6
Rice 79 - Utah Valley 72	0.696	Rice 79 - Utah Valley 85	13
Texas AM CC 71 - Weber State 68	0.589	Texas AM CC 82 - Weber State 73	-6
Texas Arlington 75 - Akron 69	0.65	Texas Arlington 85 - Akron 69	-10
Wyoming 81 - UMKC 71	0.778	Wyoming 72 - UMKC 61	-1

GAMES OF 3-21

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Mississippi 78 - Georgia Tech 72	0.638	Mississippi 66 - Georgia Tech 74	14
Texas Christian 80 - Richmond 72	0.726	Texas Christian 86 - Richmond 68	-10

GAMES OF 3-22

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Central Florida 72 - Illinois 69	0.584	Central Florida 68 - Illinois 58	-7
Coastal Carolina 76 - Illinois Chicago 68	0.721	Coastal Carolina 89 - Illinois Chicago 78	-3
Texas Arlington 72 - Cal State Bakersfield 64	0.712	Texas Arlington 76 - Cal State Bakersfield 80	12
Texas State 70 - Idaho 62	0.73	Texas State 64 - Idaho 55	-1
Wyoming 80 - Utah Valley 72	0.733	Wyoming 74 - Utah Valley 68	2

GAMES OF 3-23

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Arizona 79 - Xavier 71	0.746	Arizona 71 - Xavier 73	10
Gonzaga 80 - West Virginia 75	0.617	Gonzaga 61 - West Virginia 58	2
Kansas 83 - Purdue 77	0.707	Kansas 98 - Purdue 66	-26
Oregon 76 - Michigan 74	0.555	Oregon 69 - Michigan 68	1

GAMES OF 3-24

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Baylor 75 - South Carolina 69	0.655	Baylor 50 - South Carolina 70	26
Florida 75 - Wisconsin 72	0.605	Florida 84 - Wisconsin 83	2
Kentucky 85 - UCLA 81	0.594	Kentucky 86 - UCLA 75	-7
North Carolina 82 - Butler 76	0.649	North Carolina 92 - Butler 80	-6

GAMES OF 3-25

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Campbell 62 - Furman 71	0.713	Campbell 64 - Furman 79	6
Gonzaga 83 - Xavier 70	0.814	Gonzaga 83 - Xavier 59	-11
Kansas 81 - Oregon 76	0.659	Kansas 60 - Oregon 74	19
Texas State 62 - Saint Peters 61	0.523	Texas State 44 - Saint Peters 49	6

GAMES OF 3-26

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Florida 78 - South Carolina 71	0.699	Florida 70 - South Carolina 77	14
North Carolina 81 - Kentucky 82	0.501	North Carolina 75 - Kentucky 73	-3
Texas AM CC 73 - IPFW 72	0.526	Texas AM CC 78 - IPFW 62	-15
UMBC 72 - Liberty 68	0.641	UMBC 80 - Liberty 68	-8

GAMES OF 3-27

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Coastal Carolina 74 - Wyoming 75	0.503	Coastal Carolina 91 - Wyoming 81	-11

GAMES OF 3-28

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Central Florida 71 - Texas Christian 74	0.57	Central Florida 53 - Texas Christian 68	12
Georgia Tech 68 - Cal State Bakersfield 64	0.593	Georgia Tech 76 - Cal State Bakersfield 61	-11

GAMES OF 3-29

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Saint Peters 65 - Furman 62	0.574	Saint Peters 77 - Furman 51	-23
UMBC 75 - Texas AM CC 71	0.631	UMBC 61 - Texas AM CC 79	22
Wyoming 79 - Coastal Carolina 71	0.736	Wyoming 81 - Coastal Carolina 57	-16

GAMES OF 3-30

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Texas Christian 75 - Georgia Tech 71	0.597	Texas Christian 88 - Georgia Tech 56	-28

GAMES OF 3-31

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Texas AM CC 63 - Saint Peters 65	0.561	Texas AM CC 61 - Saint Peters 62	-1
Wyoming 79 - Coastal Carolina 71	0.736	Wyoming 83 - Coastal Carolina 59	-16

GAMES OF 4-1

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
Gonzaga 80 - South Carolina 69	0.771	Gonzaga 77 - South Carolina 73	7
North Carolina 80 - Oregon 77	0.555	North Carolina 77 - Oregon 76	2

GAMES OF 4-3

Prediction	Favorite Win Prob.	Actual	Error
North Carolina 78 - Gonzaga 80	0.544	North Carolina 71 - Gonzaga 65	-8

Number of DI Games: 140
Number Correct: 89 = 63.5%
Expected Number Correct: 94.243 = 67.3%
Average Error: 9.07
Average Signed Error: 0.5